The polarizing Ace Bailey holds one of the most uneven skill sets in recent draft memory. Standing at a wiry 6’8, the gap between the rarity of his skills and his effectiveness on the court in the present is wide – immensely talented as a shotmaker and blessed with special length and fluidity, yet unrefined in nearly all ancillary skills on the court. An empathetic eye would call Ace a victim of the bad habits that players can be nudged into when they’re astronomically better than everyone else their age for most of their career, but it’s clear that his success in the NBA will rely on his ability to round out the complementary aspects of his game.

Ace’s pitch as a top-5 pick is built on his scoring prowess – a truly rare midrange shotmaker in terms of shot versatility and ability to get a look over anyone mobile enough to stay with him. His flexibility and wide variety of bases that he’s comfortable firing from are rare, and stand as a potential foundation for an elite 2pt jump shooting arsenal. He took an astronomical 200 non-rim 2PAs last season, a number that not only speaks to not only his own skills, but also the dearth of viable creators around himself and Dylan Harper at Rutgers. Ace has never been an especially willing passer, and this trend continued last season with a paltry ratio of 1.3 assists to 14.7 FGA per game. His team was starved for high floor, usage soaking offense, so while Ace clearly fit the bill to fill that need, it’s likely that his team context only exacerbated the extreme nature of his shot profile and offensive process.

There are two key warning signs for Ace’s case as an elite self-creator. For a score-first and score-second prospect, his touch indicators (69% from the line and good-but-not-great jumpshot efficiency when accounting for shot difficulty) are somewhat underwhelming. Additionally, he fails to clear the very first threshold for elite scoring prospects – not enough easy buckets! With only a .24 free throw rate and almost 2x as many midrange attempts as rim attempts, the average degree of difficulty of his shot diet is a clear concern – getting downhill at a more consistent rate is a key improvement area for him. Without significant physical maturation or north/south handle development, it’s difficult to imagine Ace generating the meat and potatoes of an NBA superstar shot diet that are necessary to make his special shotmaking a complimentary skill, rather than all he offers. Still only 18 at the draft, I’m hesitant to rule out paradigm-shifting development for Ace, whether that be physical or mental improvements.

On the defensive end, Ace’s play-to-play impact once again lags behind his theoretical upside. His event creation numbers are strong (4.1% block rate, 1.7% steal rate) despite often still seeming a beat behind the play mentally, especially early on in his freshman season. Against the right matchups, his length and agility occasionally allow for him to overwhelm at the point of attack – even if his light frame and higher hips will allow sturdier wings to go through his chest at times. There’s clearly enough here to imagine a positive defender in the distant future, but there’s plenty of technical and physical development standing in the way of that for Bailey.
For a player with as wide of a range of outcomes as Ace, the variables key to his fate as an NBA player are unusually clear:

– unlearn the shot chucking habits that might’ve been advantageous for him and his team at lower levels, but won’t be in the NBA
– find a way to increase his volume of paint looks and free throws
– Continue to ramp up his volume and quality of movement as an off ball shooter

His success in these departments hinge largely on the team context he lands in, and the role he’s asked to play in his formative developmental years. It would be beneficial for all parties if Ace’s first NBA team prioritizes smoothing out the lumps in his all-around game, rather than further empowering the traits that worked for him at pre-NBA levels.

Oscar