Age

19.0

Height

6'6''

Weight

220

Workload

MIN%

0

USG%

0

TS%

0

Per 70 Possession Stats

PTS

0

REB

0

AST

0

STL

0

BLK

0

TOV

0

Efficiency

RIM FG%

0

MID FG%

0

3PT FG%

0

FT%

0

Jump to full report

Report by: Matt

Coen Carr

Forward Michigan State

Elite athlete with blossoming skill

Age

19.0

Height

6'6''

Weight

220

Per 70 Possession Stats

PTS

0

REB

0

AST

0

STL

0

BLK

0

Positions Defended

Offensive Role

 

Defensive Role

   

Meet Coen Carr

Michigan State’s Coen Carr is the best athlete among potential 2024 NBA draft picks. There are many good options for that spot, including G-League Ignite’s Ron Holland, Perth’s Alex Sarr or even USC’s Isaiah Collier. But Carr has a versatility of athletic outcomes none of those other guards, forwards or bigs do.

I spelled out those positions as it is very difficult to tell where Carr’s positionality lies.

  • In favor of guard: he has developed into a good catch and shoot marksman from deep, can stick with twos on defense
  • In favor of forward: he can get to the rim in an instant, can stick with threes and strong enough for some fours
  • In favor of big: provides legitimate rim protection despite only 6’6”, as his quickness of getting off the ground is second to none

This athletic flexibility is a strength, and bodes well for his ability to find time in the big leagues, quickly. There is much to be refined, but the upside is extremely worth it.

Before we get started, please just enjoy a Coen Carr dunk for its own sake:

The Pedigree

  • Ranked #25 in the ESPN100, #34 by Rivals
  • Averaged 8.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals at Peach Jam 2022
  • Invited to the 2022 USA Basketball Junior National Team minicamp
  • Selected to play in the 2023 Iverson Classic
  • Also played football and ran track (long jump, high jump, triple jump) in high school

The Offense

So much of Coen Carr’s offensive upside is tied to a simple basketball skill: the ability to take a first dribble. Different than handle creativity or functionality, Carr struggles mightily with turning a catch into a go. The tragedy in this is Carr is excellent at securing the ball, driving with speed and finishing through traffic: it’s just that single point that is creating an artificial bottleneck.

You can find a clip like this in every game; while he recovers in these two, that is not always the case, massively disrupting any chance at fluidity. If you can stomach this part of his game, and especially if you assume this can be drilled out, you’ll love the rest.

The reason for this glaring flaw is obvious: Carr is incredibly fast, and has had little on-ball reps to develop such a skill, however basic. This issue has not stopped Carr from developing his game elsewhere, and in some instances, as quickly as his first step. He has become a legitimate catch and shoot threat from deep, a great foul-drawer when downhill and shown sparks using his drives to create kick-outs. If he can simply slow down and take care with that very first step, the benefits are sky-high.

But let’s start with my most controversial take: his shooting is not nearly as bad as his reputation, and in fact might end up very good. While the volume remains low, added strength and confidence between EYBL and high school seasons led to better results. By turning with more purpose into his shot, Carr leverages his strength and ensures a dedicated follow-through.

Any mechanical issues can be spotted in EYBL tape where his free throw shooting was abysmal. His feet are too close together, leading to a flared out release which was consistently accurate from distance but poorly aimed left to right.

But these have been better in more recent tape, shooting through his shoulder, flicking the ball less and with much better results. Carr’s free throw percentage went from an abysmal 59% through the Sunshine Classic during which he turned 18 to an adequate 72% since then (according to Cerebro).

Before: both feet facing forwards, finishes with shoulders flat, guide hand as high as follow-through

After: right foot at an angle, finishes through shooting shoulder, guide hand below follow-through

Beyond that, his touch in the midrange appears sound, too, once again with the caveat of limited volume:

Most importantly, the form looks sound. With his strength, dedicated footwork and clean follow-through, I can’t see why Carr can’t take multiple attempts from deep per game and in doing so earn some shooting gravity. If that is the case then…

…look out for Carr as a driver. The pick-up issue is tough to watch on film, but betrays some real underlying driving potential should it be fixed. His handle beyond that first step is adequate, with both hands, capable of simple moves but at high speeds.

Look at the possessions where Carr takes his time and makes sure the pick up and initial dribble are clean, before accelerating towards the rim at blistering speeds. Even with a soft closeout, Carr was able to beat Maryland commit Jaime Kaiser off the dribble for the tough finish.

Once he has you on his back, he’s gone:

Carr welcomes physicality, limited by his inconsistent usage. But he is going to get to his spot before you with his absurd burst, often given the benefit of the doubt by officials who cannot even tell how he got there so fast. The drives are not often, as more of an opportunistic usage-taker than demanding creator reps.

But this gets us to our next point: Carr’s game should scale down tremendously to a team’s scheme even while he builds up skill. If left open, Carr could punish the opponent by cashing a catch and shoot/pick and pop look or by getting to the bucket in an instant on a one-dribble drive or alley oop (his teammates so far have been loathe to take advantage of the latter). Not to spoil the defensive side, but that lower offensive usage (at high efficiency) also buys him the energy for a high usage defensive role.

With the consistent caveat regarding the pick up point, Carr has shown the ability to improvise in the open or half court in his limited on-ball reps. He could be special in transition, utilizing his nose for the ball, 100th percentile burst and vertical, and willingness to attack the basket, hard.

But even in the half court he has shown some creativity moving the ball. He is unlikely to be even a secondary creator, but I’m not taking the outcome off the table considering he is just recently growing into his offensive game. His junior year, for instance, he was used primarily as a low-usage energy big. He has developed passing instincts in spite of that, and most notably by using his speed first. Mostly simple, but something to work off of.

Finally, his scrappiness comes up with loose change via putbacks, as well. To the rim in an instant and constantly perusing for the ball, Carr will put many on posters after securing an offensive board.

Or drawing fouls as a handful for the defense. These are plays made out of willingness and effort, matched well with his physical tools.

While many focus on the inconsistent, limited shooting results and unpolished handle, I see developing technique into sky-high potential. Carr is not just an athlete, but a problem-solver as well.

The Defense

Now things get really fun. If you thought his athleticism popped on offense, the defensive clips shine even more. Coen Carr projects as an NBA-level rim protector – a secondary or tertiary one, but providing value at the defensive rim nonetheless. That may sound shocking for a 6’6” wing, but his hops and more specifically, the quickness of his hops allow for Carr to deter shots in multiple ways and at a very high level.

Ideally, Carr would be in a scheme that allows for him to roam. He is alert flipping his hips to make back line rotations, and boy is it a joy to watch.

The technique is closer to a B than an A, all instinctual but making plays regardless. I imagine time with Michigan State will focus on the more traditional skills such as keeping body square when contesting or keeping arms vertical. But Carr is such an athlete it hasn’t mattered, always a threat to make a play at the rim on either end.

Carr has even been able to slide into a primary rim protector role in select lineups, in the middle of a zone or defending transition opportunities, and with a high rate of deterrence. Opponents genuinely appear scared of Carr when they approach him in the paint, a rare acknowledgment for a non-big at the high school level: everyone knows to stay away from this guy.

Enabling Carr to play a roamer role is his ability to accelerate, closing out in an instant and only needing to be within several feet to contest with his vertical.

He is a playmaker away from the basket, as well. While likely lacking the technical prowess to be a true shutdown type, Carr has the dual traits of being difficult to move off his spot and quick enough to stick with you. Those two, in tandem, go a long way towards being a reputable perimeter defender, and Carr has it in spades.

He is not always perfect with rotations, making bad reads here and there, but more than makes up for it with his overall level of effort and focus through a possession. Many run and jump athletes overly rely on those traits to compensate for lack of attentiveness; not Carr.

The Outlook

The beauty of Coen Carr as a prospect is there is a long list of ways he could take off, both literally and figuratively. His versatility of athleticism and exhibited skill development are a potent combination that suggests very little is off the table.

You can almost run through the scenarios by testing out combinations for improvement.

1. Coen Carr’s coordination and touch improvement suggest he could become a very good pull-up shooter

According to Synergy, Coen Carr has hardly taken any pull-up threes. So why am putting this outcome on the table? Simply put, Carr might be that level of athlete. I have no issues with any stage of his pull-up, especially considering his nearly picture-perfect finish. He gets a ton of verticality and is never knocked off his axis. His better alignment to the hoop over time has permitted better touch, as has his improved decisiveness. We cannot say for sure Carr won’t continue on this trajectory, with athleticism buying time for the skill to come along after.

2. Coen Carr’s coordination, driving speed and flashes of creativity suggest he could become a secondary creator

This is less likely, as Carr would likely have averaged more assists in his career up to this point to be an NBA-level creator of any type. But playmaking happens in the margins you create with gravity, and Carr’s adaptability as a play finisher means wide margins. He appears particularly adept passing into space, displaying some creativity in passing teammates open. If he keeps making the easy look easy, the hard starts to look easier, too. The main concern, once again, is him slowing down his initial step; if he does so this season, this outcome becomes considerably more likely.

3. Coen Carr’s mobility, physicality and coordination suggest he could be a major perimeter event creator

I am not sure this is a stretch goal as much as likely outcome. Carr’s singular “only good” athletic trait is his lateral change of direction, making him unlikely to guard the majority of NBA point guards. But his strength, stop-start speed and nose for the ball make him a force to be reckoned with on the perimeter. Honing in on that defensive playmaking instinct is the key, as while the game slows down for him he will have all the more opportunity to ignite his athletic tools.

4. Coen Carr’s strength, coordination and touch improvement suggest he could be a high-level screener for position

We have already seen some of this, particularly in his EYBL usage. But with catch and shoot advancements, Carr has become a viable pick and pop threat as well. His fluidity of movement makes for a good ghost-screener, and ability to drop his hips speaks well for roll potential. The technique needs improvement – it usually does even for bigs of his age – but Carr’s strength, ability to flip hips and general nose for physicality make this outcome at least somewhat likely.

5. Coen Carr’s shot technique improvement, coordination and touch improvement suggest he could be a high volume floor spacer

Carr is just getting used to being a spacing threat, and there can be a lag in recognizing one’s own improvement. He still holds the ball first looking to move it, but has shown flashes of not just catch and shoot but turn and shoot, catching off of movement. His ability to reset his balance in an instant makes for a constantly set shooter. Hopefully Michigan State’s coaching can recognize this.

And so forth. When you roll up these outcomes further you get phrases like “Coen Carr could be an elite two-way threat” or “Coen Carr could be the most dominant transition player in the league,” all of which are not only fun to consider but indicative of the level of talent we have on our hands that simply needs to continue being polished. I do not see how there are 30 better candidates for contributing at a high level in the NBA, and there might not be 15, either.

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