Age

18.0

Height

6'9''

Weight

205

Workload

MIN%

77

USG%

30

TS%

55

Per 70 Possession Stats

PTS

23.8

REB

11.5

AST

5.0

STL

2.2

BLK

1.8

TOV

3.2

Efficiency

RIM FG%

63

MID FG%

38

3PT FG%

31

FT%

78

Jump to full report

Report by: Matt

Cooper Flagg

Forward Duke

High-flying, high-impact defender developing premium offensive skills

Age

18.0

Height

6'9''

Weight

205

Per 70 Possession Stats

PTS

23.8

REB

11.5

AST

5.0

STL

2.2

BLK

1.8

Positions Defended

Offensive Role

 

Defensive Role

   

Introduction

Duke’s freshman, the top recruit in the nation playing above his age at just recently turned 18, has taken on mega offensive usage for the Blue Devils. While his efficiency has lagged given this significant change in role, the overall team impact is still there (Flagg is top ten in the country in RAPM), largely driven by his defense.

Flagg is one of the most heralded prospects in recent memory, named the Gatorade National Player of the Year, Naismith Player of the Year, and McDonald’s All-American as a senior in 2023-24, averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 blocks per game to lead Montverde to a 33-0 record and a national championship title. Cooper was also a 2022 Men’s U17 National Team member at age 15, which won gold at the 2022 FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup, averaging 9.3 points and a team-leading 10.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. So far into the 2023-24 season, Flagg is 8th among high major freshmen in Box Plus-Minus since 2008, just below Evan Mobley and above James Harden.

The Offense

Cooper Flagg’s biggest strengths as an offensive player are rarely on display at Duke, for schematic purposes. Duke has thrown Flagg into the fire as a pick-and-roll operator, which has been a developmental positive in some ways while drastically reducing his offensive efficiency.

Flagg, at his best, is attacking the rim. Typical Flagg fashion is going 110% speed at the front of the cup when he decides to go, but that decision is often complicated by a role that changes possession to possession.

Flagg has run 6.2 pick-and-roll plays per game that end in a shot from him or his teammate, a foul drawn, or a turnover committed. Pick and rolls are his most common play type as a play finisher, his 6th most common play type as a junior at Montverde, and during his play with Maine United 16U. It is difficult to overstate how significant of a shift this has been.

Cooper Flagg’s usage is an anomaly compared to his past: 42% of his plays have come from playtypes where he has been his least efficient (pick and rolls as ballhandler, coming off of screens, handoffs, and isos), while his most efficient playtypes (cuts, pick and rolls as roll man, and putbacks) make up a mere 15%. Even his fourth most efficient play type, post-ups, are at a career low percentage of possessions.

Synergy data

Needless to say, Flagg needs to attack the rim more, and it’s hardly his fault.

Stripped down to the basics, Flagg is very good at picking the ball up and getting it to the rim.

When he can roam off-ball, he is more prone to picking up the scraps with his elite ground coverage and anticipation:

But Flagg is figuring out how to manufacture rim attempts while on the ball as well.

Here he has the slower-footed Johni Broome guarding him on the perimeter. Coop has advanced his setup craft into drives dramatically over the years. Now, nearly every lead into a drive is initiated with a subtle (or not-so-subtle) rip or pump fake. These create the smallest of gaps needed to hit the accelerator, where his zero to sixty speed shines.

These traits blend well with post-up work, too. Flagg’s ideal usage would likely involve plenty of high post-ups where he can muscle against weaker opponents:

These should be used when opponents realize they can’t stick true bigs on Flagg with his speed.

Flagg’s outside shot is firmly in the “okay” category, where there are flashes of very good but signs of poor touch as well. But he has become especially more adept at turning deep pull-ups into short pull-ups or leaning layups:

Overall, the proclivity towards deep pull-ups has been the biggest flaw in Flagg’s game, a flaw present even in his Maine United 15U tape. But he has shown a dedication to drive craft, handle progression, and willingness to initiate physicality that all speak to the numerous routes he has to provide offensive value.

While he’s shooting only 30% on pull-up twos at Duke, the process continues to improve, visibly on tape.

Checking out the full shooting profile for Flagg reveals the weak points. Below one can find Flagg’s shooting attempts and percentages for different kinds of looks using data from available Maine United, Montverde, and Duke games.

Flagg’s outside shooting profile looks decent if not outright good for a forward. It’s the pull-up twos that are the major issue, especially given the high volume of attempts. While the free throw percentage likes his overall shooting form, the relatively poor layup efficiency points to weaker touch near the hoop. But it is mostly an issue of decision-making, as Flagg could be found taking the like:

These shots can be very difficult to get out of one’s system. The proclivity for tough pull-ups goes against the grain compared to the rest of the game for the high-motor, physicality-inviting Flagg, encouraging that maybe he will grow out of it with more physical development.

I am encouraged by continually simplifying mechanics, however, and his pull-up threes have always been a solid option when the offense stagnates otherwise or there is a defensive breakdown allowing him to walk into it.

The weak deep midrange threat, however, has made the pick and roll conduction more difficult.

Flagg’s assist rate of 24% is elite for a forward, but just “pretty good” for a college player of Flagg’s usage in general. His passing reads are strong, if not complex, and Flagg has shown a little bit of manipulation here and there.

Back to his 15-year-old AAU days, Flagg could be found experimenting as a passer:

He got in trouble being over-ambitious here and there, more frequently than high-value assists.

Accuracy was also an occasional issue as well. However, by the end of his junior Montverde season, Flagg had figured out passing manipulation, displaying some high-level misdirection.

He started using his drive threat more to set up teammates, a trait that would carry over to Duke. Flagg has become more proactive going through his actions.

He figured out how to sequence, as well, as shown in the clips below:

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1876360567616589976

At Duke, he has provided more table-setting passing, a function of his running ample pick and roll, initiating from the perimeter early in possessions. Every time Flagg has hit Duke’s best roller in Khaman Maluach has resulted in a bucket or a drawn foul.

Flagg’s greatest swing skill is his handle, though his craft improvement as a driver has compensated immensely. He loves going behind the back into a middie or spinning heading through the lane, both reliable for creating shots. As mentioned above, his habits appear to be improving as far as seeking out closer distances for finishes, but that is only enabled by him figuring out how to work within his athleticism.

Although Flagg is an elite run and jump athlete, with great acceleration and upper body flexibility, his one failing is it takes him a beat when changing directions on a 180-degree plane, and he can have a heavier stride than is capable of being nimble through traffic. That lack of highly specific dance moves holds back his creator upside, as he instead will have to attack larger gaps. As we have seen in many larger creators, however, such as Tatum or Giannis, having big, heavy strides can still create seams when combined with a high degree of coordination. Flagg has that.

Cooper Flagg is best when roaming on offense (much like defense, which we will get to shortly), attacking the rim hard in transition, picking up putbacks, or just generally finding the ball in space. But he has shown advanced craft for a player of his size in developing as a driver and with shooting upside as indicated by a very strong free throw percentage. Given his athletic tools and measure of premium, dribble-pass-shoot skills at 6’9”, Flagg’s upside is a top 20 offensive player in the league.

The Defense

Here is where Flagg truly shines, though his high offensive usage at Duke is likely holding back his defensive playmaking as well.

Flagg is a monster defensively for many reasons, with three standing out: his hand-eye coordination, his leaping ability, and his ground coverage. And his motor and sense of positioning. And his ability to make plays without fouling. Okay, that was more than three.

Let’s start with the hand-eye coordination.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1820114289643954457

Yes, Flagg’s ability to meet the ball with his hand is among the best historically. You can tell this through the accuracy with which he strips or blocks the ball, and in an instant. In particular, in the above, I am taken by the “dead arm” blocks, where a player leaps so accurately they don’t have to readjust their arm position when falling down for the block. This is a quality displayed by many of the best shot-blocking players of all time.

At 6’9”, Flagg is unlikely to reach that echelon, but his help-side rim protection is extremely valuable. Duke holds opponents to 48% rim shooting with him on the court compared to 55% when Flagg is off.

While Flagg appears to conserve energy at times (he did just recently 18 years old while second in the ACC in usage), he has still put up the 8th-best combined stock rate in his conference. When he goes for the ball, he generally gets it, even against the NCAA’s best players.

Flagg’s most notable performance likely came against Spain in FIBA U-17 play when he was just 15 years old. In a slimmed-down offensive role next to some of the US’s top talents, Flagg put up 10 points, 17 rebounds, 8 steals and 4 blocks. With the ball hardly in his hands on the perimeter, Flagg was a wrecking ball all over the court.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1877069539705303502

This is why it is difficult to imagine any negative outcome for Flagg: even if the primary stuff doesn’t work out – and perhaps especially – he has his strengths to “fall back on.”

Flagg’s leaping ability combines marvelously with his hand-eye. Look how instantaneously he gets off the ground:

And how high he can climb at his maximum:

This vertical, combined with motor, is why Flagg is one of the ACC’s best rebounders on the defensive end. He hauls 22% of opponent attempts, but also displays superstar traits in how he is able to high point the ball:

There are few outcomes where Flagg isn’t a positive rebounder or shot blocker for position and is most likely going to be one of the best wings in the league at both.

He has other extremely positive athletic traits, too, namely his acceleration. Combined with his anticipation and aforementioned hand-eye, Flagg will be a steal maven as well. Just check out these steals on nearly back-to-back possessions.

Notice as well how easily these lead to fast breaks. Flagg’s transition frequency at Duke of 14% is half of his usage compared to Montverde or Maine United. Those are easy points being given up on schematically.

Flagg is likely to be a very good on-ball defender, perhaps an elite one depending on where his strength ends up. He is most threatening one-on-one for his steals potential, as his man has to be extra cautious when attacking. Opponents have only made 2 buckets on 11 attempted iso possessions against Flagg, and only 22% on all attempts before Duke.

With his shot blocking, thievery, and on-ball defense likely to translate at 6’9”, it would be surprising if Flagg never made an All-Defense team. That puts him squarely in the top 10 for NBA defenders.

The Player

Cooper Flagg is a menace and is likely to show even more in the tank in the NBA than he did at Duke. With a reversion back to pre-Duke usage, his efficiency will improve, though will continue to build on the on-ball equity he has displayed to this point. Flagg cares deeply about basketball craft, as shown by his handle, driving, and passing progression over the years. At just recently turned 18, Flagg will continue to develop physically, leading to even more easy buckets and the ability to set up teammates while thriving defensively. The sport will keep clicking, the game will slow down and Flagg will show the same dominance he did at a much younger age at every stop. When he’s in his prime, there is an easy case to be made for Flagg ending up a consistent top 5 player.

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