VJ Edgecombe
Guard
Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender.
VJ Edgecombe is one of the more perplexing star bets in this class. On one hand, his athletic tools and productivity scream future all-star. On the other hand, his strengths and weaknesses mesh in ways that leave me scratching my head.
Edgecombe is an all-world athlete. 33 dunks with 3.8% and 2.3% steal and block rates is a terrorizing stat profile, especially when you consider that he’s only 6’5” 193 lbs. I expect Edgecombe to be an uber-impactful guard defender in his prime. Maybe he isn’t the bulkiest or longest player in the world (6’7.5” wingspan), but his motor, ground coverage, and quick hands make him a potential lockdown perimeter weapon. There’s a train of thought that Edgecombe’s defensive impact will be limited by his pedestrian (by basketball player standards) physical measurables, but hyper-energetic guard defenders can impact the game at the highest of levels. Just look at Alex Caruso, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, and Cason Wallace. Edgecombe could be the rare guard defender that can genuinely slide up and down the line-up and wreak havoc.
Offensively is where the puzzle pieces become a bit wonkier to fit into place. He’s an explosive first step athlete that struggles to generate deep paint touches off the bounce. This is a result of his poor handle. Edgecombe has some tantalizing movement skills, able to explode by defenders and change directions on a dime – there’s just times where the ball doesn’t come with him. This compounds with his lack of finishing craft, as Edgecombe is often forced to pick the ball up early and hoist up awkward contested leaners. He shot just 47.8% on non-dunk rim attempts. If he were built like a power wing these issues would be less concerning, but given that he is more in the mold of a guard, I have concerns about his ceiling as a creator.
Fortunately, I believe that he can provide value in other ways. Edgecombe will thrive in a fast-paced environment with other creators where he can run in transition, hit catch-and-shoot threes, and attack the rim against a tilted defense. While he doesn’t yet flow from dribble to pull-up efficiently, he got up 8.7 3PA/100 and finished a workable 33.6% of his threes and 77.9% of his free throws.
Put it all together and Edgecombe’s evaluation is far from straight forward. He’ll be a top pick and there’s a chance his offensive output disappoints fans. However, there’s a world where he develops that handle and builds on his moments of pace control and change-of-direction ability. But even if he doesn’t reach those lofty outcomes, Edgecombe can still return high/mid lottery value as a glue guard that makes open shots and locks in on D.
Will Morris