Will Riley
Forward
Wing shooter and playmaker with room to grow physically.
The concept of pre-drafting gained public attention when PD Web talked and wrote about it. When analyzing Will Riley as a prospect, I always come back to the concept. Riley, at this point, has a few major weaknesses that align well with what the NBA as a whole is excellent at: developing strength and filling out the body by natural age progression. The lack of strength makes a lot of what Riley does an uphill battle from the beginning, most often with mixed results.
Riley’s overall level of touch helps him to win in a lot of situations that players with similar weaknesses would ultimately lose. Despite his clear lack of strength, he is currently a very capable finisher at the rim with solid volume. He has a herky-jerky style of dribbling, which allows him to frequently get to his spots. His play off two feet allows him to stay balanced in more crowded areas and create better angles for his finishes. At this point, Riley can’t create meaningful advantages on his own and needs some help, either schematically by coming off movement into his on-ball actions or by his smart off-ball cutting.
His shooting percentages for Illinois are heavily influenced by 1. his rather difficult shot diet and 2. his going only 12/41 (29.3%) on unguarded catch & shoot threes, which is nearly ⅓ of his overall three-point attempts. I expect him to smooth out the percentage over time, by gaining a bit of strength and having a more suitable shot diet overall. Defensively, he at least tries, but his impact is limited by a lack of strength in every aspect. His STL% and BLK% are comically low for a guy his size and athletic profile, which, to an extent, comes down to Illinois playing a really conservative scheme, not creating many turnovers or blocks. His low number of steals and blocks in high school and AAU suggests Riley won’t be a defensive playmaker of any sort. My hope is, again, that physical improvement leads him to a place where he can become a more capable defender.
In the end, 6’9’‘ guys with dribble, pass, shoot capability don’t grow on trees and in the right development context, Riley could deliver a much higher value than his draft night or board position might suggest. His future team needs patience, and the right plan to develop his weaknesses. There is a wide range of outcomes with a hard floor for Riley, which prevents him from gaining a higher board position for most people. His NBA success will go hand in hand with his level of physical development.
Dennis Janßen