The eyes of the basketball world are trained on the Finals. Obviously. And we all have the same 48 minutes of game-tape to analyze and over-analyze. So, unique observations, at this point in the season, are few and far between – with that said, here are a couple of Game Two tidbits I found to be both interesting and key to a Heat victory.

Zone Defense

Ah yes, the infamous Miami zone vs. Denver’s unstoppable offense. Whether you believe zone defense at the NBA-level is an affront to professional sports or not, this was a matchup hyped up by the nerdiest among us. The Heat have played the most zone defense in the NBA in both this regular season and post-season. Zone is part of their Dark Magic, concocted in Pat Riley’s sunken living room.

Denver meanwhile…well, I’ll just borrow the words from CBS Sports writer Jack Maloney: “In the regular season, [the Nuggets] were second in the league in zone offense, scoring 1.156 points per possession, and in the playoffs that mark has jumped to a stunning 1.385 points per possession.”

This is less of a mystery, of course. The Nuggets are led by a lab-designed zone-buster, a 7-foot-tall wizard with soft hands, sharp vision, and a lethal mid-range jump-shot. Step one: Put that guy in the middle of your zone offense. Step Two: Profit! This, prior to the series, was much of the discussion around Miami’s zone defense and how Denver might counter it: “Well, they have Nikola Jokic, so, yeah.”

While excellent analysis, that misses one thing: The Heat do not play your run-of-the-mill zone. When you hear “zone defense” in the NBA, you imagine a red-faced head coach so perturbed by his team’s effort that he says “[expletive] this, just play some 2-3. You guys remember that from high school, right?” Well, that is not Erik Spoelstra and the Heat.

Spo’s squad change their zone, seemingly, from possession to possession, but a principle often prevails. Deny dribble penetration in the middle without sacrificing corner threes. How? Have your weak-side guards flock to the ball-side, no matter where they are. An obvious but difficult challenge, one that places heavy onus on the wings of the operation. Here’s a possession from the first half of Game Two, one that ends with an Aaron Gordon three:

That’s an outcome that the Heat will surely take. Rather than have Jamal Murray fire up a corner 3-pointer, a below average shooter in Gordon is taking one, lightly contested. That play exhibits the general structure the Heat rely on when going zone in these playoffs, specifically vs. Denver’s bench units.

But in the fourth quarter, they trotted out a zone agains Nikola Jokic & co., and boy did it make my brain hurt. Well, me and the Nuggets:

Gabe Vincent does a hell of a job fronting Jokic in the first clip, which was the tenet of Miami’s zone concepts in the fourth quarter. On a subsequent possession, Denver decides to let Jokic handle it up top, a much easier path to getting the ball in his hands. Welp, that results in Vincent applying extreme ball pressure and forcing a (questionable) charge.

What even is that zone? I’m damn near tempted to call it the world’s strangest-looking box-and-one, though in reality it’s more of a 2-1-2 where the ‘1’ is interchangeable. Just take a look at this possession, where Caleb Martin and Vincent switch the Jokic assignment mid-possession:

Zone defense, once you get past the high school level, is polarizing. And I get the argument; it feels almost cheap to remove the sanctity of guarding your man and taking pride in shutting him down from defense. “That ain’t basketball at its purest,” the detractors shout. But even the haters have to admit it’s a beautiful thing to watch the Heat maintain their core principles no matter what kind of funky zone they’re throwing out there.

Here, the Nuggets get creative with it, and screen for Jokic after he catches it off an inbounds, but the Heat snuff it out:

If any other team had the otherworldly gall to play zone against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, then their center certainly would’ve stepped up on that creative ball-screen from Denver. But Bam Adebayo and the Heat scoff at the notion. Why, so Jokic and Gordon can essentially run their famous inverted pick-and-roll? Or so Jokic can hit a devious back-cutter as the rim protector vacates the area? Nope. Erik Spoelstra’s guards are going to prevent dribble penetration – even when Jokic is on the floor, whether that means fronting him or not – and his wings are going to handle their business (although Kyle Lowry’s job here is admittedly made easier by Jimmy Butler’s recovery.)

I’ll say it. It’s a treat to watch the Miami Heat play zone defense, even on the biggest stage. Especially against one of the most fearsome zone-busters this game has ever known.

One more thing, really quick. As important as Miami’s zone defense was (a huge reason the Nuggets’ offense hovered around a pedestrian 111 offensive rating with Jokic on the court), their outside shooting was far more crucial. 49% from deep on 35 attempts? On the road? Especially when, per Cleaning the Glass, a minuscule 14% of their shots came inside the restricted area, meaning they were entirely reliant on jump-shooting? As boring as this may sound, there cannot be an explanation for Miami’s victory that doesn’t start with, “They shot the hell out of the rock.”

There are a few reasons why that happened, other than the pure shot-making talent 8-seeds are now dripping with. I tweeted a cut-up of all their 3-point attempts…

…and surmised, among other things, that the Heat successfully targeted Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. You can draw your own conclusions, but it’s clear that Miami challenged those two to talk through countless screening actions and make long closeouts. Neither one did either task successfully. Aside from Bruce Brown, perhaps, the whole Denver squad was sloppy rotating and closing out to shooters. There’s a reason Jeff Green and Head Coach Mike Malone each ripped their team’s effort in postgame pressers.

But, to give the Heat some credit here, I thought they forced sloppy closeouts and missed rotations by paying careful attention to their spacing. Miami’s shooters consistently spaced multiple feet beyond the arc, and it caused problems for the Nuggets. Roll the tape:

Spacing farther away from the line not only creates longer closeouts for defenders, many of which various Nuggets botched repeatedly in their Game Two defeat. It also creates more opportunities for shooters to move without the ball – I don’t mean sprinting around screens like Steph Curry, the most commonly recognized form of off-ball-movement.

Rather, I’m talking about the art of subtly relocating, an art that Miami’s role players have perfected: Just look at Max Strus in that first clip. Relocating along the perimeter is about reading two players at once, and instinctually moving to a spot that makes the defender’s job harder but the passer’s job easier. Stus & co. did a great job of that in Game Two, and it was the cherry on top of a…Poop Sundae for Denver’s defenders. When the Nuggets weren’t busy closing out to shooters recklessly and jumping at every ball-fake, they were losing their assignments before then, unaware of perimeter relocations.

Yes, the Miami Heat shot the lights out, and that is the reason they were able to tie the series against the rightfully favored Nuggets. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Erik Spoelstra’s squad did all the little things right, executing their offensive and defensive game-plan on Sunday night. Whether they were setting up 3-point bombs or falling back into zone defense, the Heat certainly sweat the small stuff in Game Two. And it was beautiful to watch.

The post Heat in the Zone: How Miami Locked in to Take Game 2 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Taking AD off of Jokic is also the rare tactic that straddles the line between effective and overly simplistic. There are clear benefits to allowing Davis, a Hall-of-Fame rim protector, to, well, protect the rim. For stretches, it has absolutely worked in this series, keeping Davis out of foul trouble and stymieing Denver’s spacing. Combine that with its aforementioned obviousness, and you’re gonna get fans pleading for Darvin Ham to make the adjustment, then patting themselves on the back when he does. But not in the way that such fans (or even writers like myself) may plead for Steph Curry to run 50 pick-and-rolls a game, then celebrating when he runs a successful one. There are limits to reason.

So, you have an inherently noticeable tactic that the Lakers deployed towards the end of Game One and frequently went to in Game Two, occasionally to positive results. It’s easy to see why deploying AD as a roamer has been the story of the series so far; it’s easy to see why Michael Malone has made some quips about it too. But there’s something even more plain, even more significant happening on the court, perhaps the reason the team up 2-0 in the series has won those two games: The Lakers are not scoring against Nikola Jokic in the pick-and-roll.

Worse yet, the Lakers haven’t set themselves up to crash the offensive glass either, especially in Game Two. This hasn’t been a typical defensive series from Denver in regards to defending the PnR, with Jokic playing at the level. Instead, he’s largely bee playing drop, with aggressive, almost disrespectful gap help from his supporting Nuggs:

Some tactical analysis goes out the window here. Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s screen navigation thus far? Good! Lakers wings and guard shooting thus far? Bad! For the series, Los Angeles is shooting just over 30% on above-the-break 3-pointers, a mark they couldn’t even clear on Thursday night.

Denver employing this strategy to great success in Game 2 did more than just discourage L.A.’s guards from getting downhill, as they saw a see of blue when peering into the paint. The were able to keep Jokic nestled under the glass, ready to battle AD, which contributed to the Lakers rebounding just 11.1% of their misses. For context, that was L.A.’s second-lowest ORB% of the whole season, which has comprised 96 total games.

There were some glimpses of faulty gap help from various Nuggets, highlighting how imperative their early help is. Just as much as it is a physical battle, forcing the Lakers to drive through a crowd, it is a mental one too: Discourage them from trying altogether. Here, Murray is late to get to the nail, and LeBron revs it up for the easiest two he’s seen all series:

The simplest answer for L.A. would be to make some damn shots. #Analysis. But really, how else are you supposed to stop defenders cheating off you from just one pass away? Another answer would be to space closer to the arc, ‘stampeding’ on the catch, which is to say catching the swing pass already in motion towards the basket. In the first set of clips, LBJ is spacing about five feet behind the line with no hope of creating the downhill pressure a high ball-screen hopes to initiate. Look to see that as an early focus for the Lakers in Game Three.

Their immediate fixes to the heavy gap help Denver displayed in Game Two was to run fully spread-PnR from the top of the key, with a potential third spacer in the dunker spot. For a split second, this seemed to be a solution. Jokic reverted back to trapping the ball-handler, and Anthony Davis, now playing 4-on-3, got an And-1 bucket over the resultant help defense:

That panacea didn’t last long, however. Just as the Nuggets had disrespected the L.A.’s shooters, they continued to play Jokic in drop coverage, daring Davis to hit the shots off the short roll that turned Jokic into an MVP (first clip), or daring LeBron to, at age 38 on one foot, get all the way downhill, now having to navigate an extra defender parked near the dunker sport (second clip):

To me, this is the story for the (potentially short) remainder of this series. Hachimura guarding Jokic is cute and all, but the Serbian supernova is figuring out that he just has to shoot over Rui, and with each passing game, his surrounding Nuggets will figure out their spots on the floor. Even if they don’t, though, it won’t matter if Los Angeles’ half court offensive rating is around 90.

Attacking the two-time MVP in the pick-and-roll was supposed to be his kryptonite, Denver’s kryptonite. Even with Jokic’s gradual defensive improvements in his career, he was thought to be best suited playing at the level of the screen, trapping or aggressively hedging against ball-handlers. How, then, could Denver survive by scrambling all the time, often defending four players with three frantic dudes? And how valuable is defensive rebounding if you start every play 25 feet from the basket?

Well, in this Western Conference Finals, none of that appears to be an issue for the Nuggets. In Game Two, Mike Malone comfortably dropped his superstar back in the paint, watched him gobble up 17 rebounds, watched his guards fight viciously over screens, and enjoyed brick after brick from the Lakers. It’s up to the purple and gold to figure out how to attack what was supposed to be the exploitable weakness of the Wester Conference’s best team. They haven’t yet. And if they don’t, this may be a shorter series than we were all hoping for.

The post One Glaring Weakness for the Los Angeles Lakers appeared first on Swish Theory.

This conference finals matchup is bound to be a great battle focusing on the dualities of each team’s approach. Denver with their offense centering around, well, a center in Nikola Jokić as he’s literally in the middle of everything they do. Whether it be in the middle of the free throw line, on the block, or on the perimeter—when Jokić is on the court, he’s the center of attention, and for very good reason. 

Whereas for LA, their offense is more of an egalitarian approach where their leading scorer, LeBron James, is only at 23.8 points per game for this playoff run, compare that to Jokić who is at 30.7 points per game. James also leads the Lakers in touches at 71.6 per game which pales in comparison to the Nuggets’ two stars with Jokić at 110.9 touches per game (1st in the league this postseason with the difference between #1 and #2 being the difference between #2 and #27) and Jamal Murray at 85.6 (9th in the league this postseason). 

These two teams offer different questions for the other to solve which should make for a super entertaining chess match between two of the league’s best.

Matchups

For Denver:

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on D’Angelo Russell
• Jamal Murray on Austin Reaves
• Michael Porter Jr. on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Aaron Gordon on LeBron James
• Nikola Jokić on Anthony Davis

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Jamal Murray
• D’Angelo Russell on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Michael Porter Jr.
• LeBron James on Aaron Gordon
• Anthony Davis on Nikola Jokić

With Denver having a stout defender in Aaron Gordon to matchup with LeBron, the rest of the frontcourt comes into question. And a question that could have an important outcome in this series is “Who is ‘guarding’ Jarred Vanderbilt?” 

Why should you pay attention to the person guarding a 25% 3PT shooter, you ask? 

Well, it is a question of whether Denver wants to help off of Vanderbilt or hide on Vanderbilt. In LA’s previous series, Vanderbilt’s spacing issues were causing a big problem for the Lakers offense as both series went on, and ultimately reached an inflection point in Game 6 of the 2nd round vs the Golden State Warriors where they pulled the plug on Vanderbilt as a starter and replaced him with Dennis Schröder, the veteran speedy ballhandler. The Warriors were helping off of Vanderbilt at any chance they could get if that meant it would slow down an attack from LeBron or Davis. And well, I would assume that would be the same approach from Denver and the Eastern Conference team the Lakers would face if they make it to the Finals. 

However, Denver is known to mix up their matchups particularly when it comes to who Jokić is assigned to. Jokić had multiple sequences in their series against Phoenix where he was guarding a non-shooter like Josh Okogie and it threw an interesting wrench into the Suns’ offense when it happened. 

As for the Lakers, these are the standard matchups and I would not be surprised if these are different even in Game 1. With Vanderbilt’s questionable fit alongside LeBron and AD, Darvin Ham could look to another starter to begin this series and would change the matchups completely. But if Vanderbilt still does start, I could definitely see him guarding either one of Murray or Porter Jr. as the coaching staff pretty much trusts him on anybody. 

As Davis will have his hands full with Jokić, I would look to LeBron guarding Gordon to a similar degree that the Nuggets will guard Vanderbilt and also how the Lakers guarded players on the Warriors and Grizzlies — simple not caring if they were to launch threes. LeBron’s best defensive role for a good amount of years now is as a helper and potential roamer where he can be a pest in passing lanes, take charges in driving lanes, and come over for huge blocks if that is the last resort. LeBron will also have to be wary though of Gordon’s cutting and his impeccable chemistry with Jokić where the latter will find the former as soon as there is an opening in the defense. 

Denver’s Advantages

Going into this matchup as the #1 offense in the playoffs, Denver will pose a different threat to the Lakers’ defense they really haven’t seen this postseason. Not only is it pretty post-centric but the guy that can post up can also space you out and that could be the real concern. 

In the recent years of Jokić’s dominance throughout the league, which incidentally came after the loss to the Lakers in the 2020 Bubble, he has been a tough matchup for AD and he is of the build of player that AD can have trouble against. With his high center of gravity, Davis can often look light when going against bulky 7-footers will a low center of gravity and they can move him around a bit. Guys like Jokić, Ivica Zubac, or Jusuf Nurkić all fit the description and have given AD more trouble than you would think from a defensive player of his caliber. While Davis will definitely make him work, I think Jokić will have the edge over him in those 1-on-1 battles in the post that will inevitably happen.

If Jokić is not in the post, however, he can still stretch Davis out with his ability to shoot and if Davis provides no pressure to Jokic on the perimeter, it will give him ample amounts of time to read the floor and play make as one of the league’s best in that category. This will be a challenge the Lakers will have to solve throughout the series since they won their first two series by stationing Anthony Davis near the rim as best as they could through all methods and it worked to near perfection. With Jokić operating a lot from the top of the key and elbow, that alone can pull Davis out from under the rim and other Nuggets’ players will feel much more free at the rim when Davis’ presence isn’t near. 

Denver is also a more controlled and secure offense in comparison to the Grizzlies and Warriors who both ranked in the bottom-7 in most turnovers per game by playoff teams, meanwhile, Denver ranks 1st, giving up the fewest amount of turnovers this postseason. This matters a ton for the success rate of the Lakers’ defense of course but also hinders their transition game as well if they don’t turn the Nuggets over enough. 

With Aaron Gordon’s phenomenal work on Kevin Durant in Denver’s previous series, he will be a formidable defender to have the LeBron assignment. Strangely enough, Gordon is one of the few defenders who actually match up in stature and frame to LeBron which could provide an interesting challenge for the legend at this stage of his career. 

I expect Denver to be flying up the court in transition at every opportunity that arises. The Lakers’ transition defense has left a lot to be desired with the number of athletes and high-IQ players on the team. If Denver is able to fly in transition while also being a problem in the halfcourt offense and on the offensive glass, they could spell trouble for the underdogs very quickly.

Lakers’ Advantages

Throughout the LeBron and AD era, the Lakers have had one offensive identity—attack the rim. In the regular season, the Nuggets allowed the 3rd highest FG% at the rim and it has always been a weakness of theirs in recent years. In the regular season with LeBron and AD both healthy and playing, the Lakers have had a 4-1 record over the Nuggets since 2019-20 and that doesn’t include the 4-1 series win over Denver in the Bubble. During the regular season and postseason, the Lakers have always been a tough matchup for the Nuggets although this year, Denver is fielding easily their best supporting cast around Jokić since his birth as a star in this league. 

Rim protection is one of Jokić’s biggest weaknesses as a player and the Lakers will make sure to exploit that when they have the chance. With LeBron and AD being two of the best rim attackers in the league, I’m sure their minds will be made up on getting to the rim and it will be up to the Nuggets to stop them from getting there which was their plan in that 2020 series. 

In that 2020 Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets stunted extremely hard off the Lakers’ role players whenever LeBron had the ball in a concerted effort to make him beat them off of jumpers and it was a good strategy. Before Game 5, LeBron only averaged 24 points per game and in Game 4, he shot 7-of-18 from the field. But in Game 5, James had one of those statement games where he reminds you that sometimes, it just doesn’t matter. 

That’s how the previous series ended off and one might ask, what has changed since then? Well, the Lakers have shooters. And those shooters are also ballhandlers that can create for themselves and for others. And LeBron is not as on-ball dominant as he once was which can throw the defense for a loop in that his attack will not be as predictable. 

In the December 16th matchup between the two teams, LeBron how devastating that versatile skillset can be especially when he has a favorable matchup at the rim. He killed Denver on cuts through the defense when the attention shifted off of his which made for some highlight dunks and uber-efficient possessions. 

With this current version of LeBron in the postseason, I think we could see this a lot as a way of offense for him when not creating on-ball like so many of us are used to him doing. 

And while there is so much talk around how the Lakers will guard the Nuggets, Denver will probably be the most advantageous defense to the Lakers that they will see this postseason. In the Grizzlies and Warriors series which feature two top defenses and two All-Defensive defenders, the Lakers got stuck in the mud a few times and the other teams were able to stall out LA’s pick-and-roll offense and pet actions. I just don’t see that being the case in this series. 

In the regular season, the Lakers were able to go back to an ol’ reliable play from the ‘19-20 season when nobody really had an answer for it: the LeBron and AD pick and roll. Ever since then, teams have just switched that action and would much rather one of those two attack individually vs help instead of combining to convert a masterful possession. Now, with Davis sliding to be a full-time center, that means Jokić will match up with him and if the Lakers run that LeBron and AD pick and roll, would Denver want to switch Nikola Jokić onto LeBron James? No! At least that’s what the film says and it drew great results for the Laker offense. 

Also with Jokić being on AD, that opens up a Lakers pet action of the AD wide pin-down where he sets up in the corner and a guard sets a pin-down screen for AD to curl off of and attack while on the move. I’d imagine this would be a difficult action for Jokić to guard given that centers usually aren’t used to running around screens and that’s why it’s so effective. 

On top of the offense being unlocked a bit, the Lakers’ defense has sneakily been one the best in the league at slowing down the Joker with smart tactics from the coaching staff. While some think letting Jokić cook in the post 1v1 all game is the key to beating Denver, LA has actually found success in smartly sending help to Jokić to effectively get the ball out of his hands without him realizing the advantage quick enough and also the Nuggets players not executing quick enough either. 

The Lakers used a heavy diet of helping from the strong side then bumping the next defender over to help the helper. This causes a chain reaction within the defense and the original helper’s new man will be the one in the weakside corner after he helps on Jokić. Since some of Joker’s first reads were taken away and the Nuggets didn’t weren’t ready to be thrown a Jokić pass that didn’t really create that much of an advantage, the offense sputtered at times in those regular season matchups and it was pretty much all due to the gameplan and the execution from the players.

X-Factors

Nuggets:

• The Others

Yep. That’s right. Literally every single player not named Nikola Jokić is an x-factor for the Nuggets because simply he will need all the help he can get. If Jamal Murray can tap into that efficiency he had when in the Bubble it would go a long way. He does not have the margin of error that he had in the series against Phoenix to have ice-cold games and still come out with a win. Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have to be consistent shooters and consistent decision-makers when the ball is put in their hands. Aaron Gordon can’t be afraid to shoot the ball and has to always make himself a threat through cutting or his outside shot. How much can the bench help? How much can Bruce Brown and Christian Braun contribute offensively? They’ll need everybody to chip in in some ways that aren’t normal for them and they may be put into uncomfortable situations where they will still have to succeed if they want a trip to the Finals.

Lakers

• LeBron James
• Timely adjustments (both)

Anthony Davis has unequivocally been the best player for the Lakers in this playoff run but he will need all the help where he can get it as well and I think LeBron has a chance to make a huge imprint on this series. With his athletic advantages and as a prime pressure point for the Nuggets’ weakness, his production, and primarily his health, could swing the series one way or the other.

Michael Malone is one of the best coaches in the league and this should not be a pushover matchup (like the 2020 series). These two teams are pretty evenly matched to where if you don’t counter an adjustment or don’t execute enough of the gameplan, the other team will send you right on home. Neither team has the margin for error to mess around and drop games because of an unplanned-for coverage or the team can’t execute the proper coverage or offensive exploits.

Prediction

Lakers in 6.

Much like the series against Golden State, LA is coming into this series with an optimal gameplan that we have seen work in the regular season and should be put in place again in the upcoming series. I do expect Denver to be ready for the Lakers’ first move and they have the coaching to be able to counter as best as they can then it will be on the Lakers to make their move once again. I believe the Lakers have the tactical advantage, weakness advantage, and rotation/versatility advantage with the Nuggets at a strict 8-man rotation while the Lakers have nine or even 10 guys they can go to on a nightly basis and tweak their style of play just a bit to accommodate that player and play him into their advantage. On top of that, the last game that LeBron played was his best game of this postseason and he ended the series off shooting 39% from three after Game 1. Who’s to say that can’t carry over?

Either way, this should be an extremely entertaining series that will have many plenty of adjusting and countering and best of all we get to see another series of just some of the best in the world go at it. Jokić has grown a lot since that series in Orlando and it would be a pretty good story if he were to beat the same team that knocked him out for a spot in the Finals a while back. But unfortunately for the Joker, I think his road will stop at the same spot and we will see the first 7th seed in NBA history claim their spot in the NBA Finals.

The post Clash of the Titans: Nuggets vs Lakers Series Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

“Wow! Jock Landale is a truly dominant center! Not one of the Denver frontcourt players can box him out, Denver must lack an interior presence to negate his offensive rebounding.” 

And our extraterrestrial friend wouldn’t be wrong, either.

In the first two and a half minutes of the 4th quarter, the Suns took six shots while the Nuggets only took two, with Phoenix bench big Landale drawing three fouls (two while attacking the glass and one while sealing Christian Braun) in that stretch. The Nuggets’ Jeff Green-Aaron Gordon backline is structureless, flimsy against any sort of quasi-meaningful size. A strategy that, on a night where the typically dynamic Denver offense was unusually sluggish, may have lost Denver home court advantage against the star-powered Suns.

Enter, then, one Nikola Jokic. Jokic checked in with 9:25 to go in a game tied 73-73, the only points scored thus far in the frame was a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope three pointer. His first play upon checking in? A demeaning one-handed rebound, casually repelling Landale with his free arm, into a Jokic-Jamal Murray two-man game resulting in another KCP three point bomb. 

The Nuggets would go on to win 97-87, but within a 30 second frame, Jokic immediately stabilized both ends of the court for the Nuggets. In a critically important Game 2 with Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon combining to shoot 9/31, Jokic needed to be the best version of himself: the NBA’s foremost supercomputer processing solutions to his team’s needs on both ends of the floor.

Yes, both ends of the floor. For as much as Jokic has been the league’s most reliable offensive hub in 2023, the fourth quarter against the Suns demonstrated that his feel for the game is not limited to offense. When the Suns attacked Denver’s no-middle defense with Josh Okogie as the short-roller/decision maker, Aaron Gordon jumped on an Okogie fake and left Deandre Ayton wide open for the jam.

I’m unsure exactly what Jokic said to Gordon, but I would like to believe it was something along the lines of, “It’s Josh f****** Okogie man.” It clearly had an impact on Gordon’s strategy on the rotation to the short roller. Later in the quarter, still applying no-middle but this time blitzing the ball screen, Gordon shaded toward Okogie instead of committing, forcing the worst offensive option for the Suns to make an important decision late in the game. The result was a bad shot and a won possession for the Nuggets:

Jokic’s recognition of personnel and concepts is key to the Nuggets defensive strategy against the Suns. The moments where Devin Booker and Kevin Durant go nuclear are unstoppable, but exploiting weaknesses around the edges is how the Nuggets can contain Phoenix’s explosive offense. Despite his athletic limitations, he solves so many problems just by recognizing the offensive potency of each opposing player. 

Against Cameron Payne (who is decidedly not Chris Paul), Jokic relied on heavy drop concepts and his underrated strength to man the paint. Against Booker, he hedged until the defender had a chance to recover, forcing Book to at least consider making a decision and delaying his process while the weakside defenders got organized. And against Durant, Jokic hard blitzed the PnR to get the ball out of his hands and into Okogie’s. All the while retreating to the paint to establish early positioning for rebounds. Positioning, the thing that the Nuggets couldn’t stop Jock Landale from establishing without Jokic.

And offensively, Jokic has no equal. He had 39 points on 17/30 shooting in 41 minutes. When the Nuggets needed his completely singular skillset the most, he delivered. The earlier clip–where Jokic processes Booker’s rotation before he does and gets KCP a wide open corner look–is a small sample of how Jokic’s offensive mastery ushered the Nuggets to victory.

Poor, poor Deandre Ayton. Despite some pretty sound defense, or what would be sound defense against most centers, Jokic routinely found space to attack and took complete advantage of how Ayton was utilized in Phoenix’s scheme. In the PnR, Jokic took up just enough space to get the best shot possible without a meaningful contest from Ayton:

In one-on-one defensive contexts, Ayton stood no chance. Despite possessing a myriad of athletic advantages, Jokic simply overpowered the former number-one overall pick. 

In the first clip, while obviously a tough shot, Jokic waits until Murray spaces to the three-point line to attack that gap in between the free throw line and the right block. The second shot is humiliation on national television. The aggressive hips and early seal in semi-transition puts the Suns’ defense irreparably behind the eight-ball. Barbecue chicken. He’s hunting an iso matchup against the only reliable two-way big the Suns roster. 

The third clip is just Jokic being a cheat code. After some initial off ball action, Denver runs Horns Out (where the player at one elbow sets a screen for the player at the opposite elbow, a play that Phoenix runs a lot for Durant) for Jokic, who immediately attacks Ayton’s chest and draws a foul. There is exactly one other center in the NBA who you can reliably run this set for and he’s the MVP of the Association. Back to our E.T. correspondent after watching the rest of the 4th quarter:

Jokic is become PnR death, destroyer of worlds defenses.

Profound words, but there are still some counters the Suns could employ to contain Jokic’s impact. While it sounds nonsensical, establishing a smaller defender on Jokic may actually short circuit the Nuggets’ offense. Placing Ayton, Bismack Biyombo, or even Durant as the weak side helper and matching up Torrey Craig as the primary could deter his decision-making and ultimately afford the defense more time for recovery. 

The Sixers implemented this strategy during the regular season (as analyzed by the great team at Thinking Basketball) to great effect, and while Craig is no P.J. Tucker and Ayton is certainly no Joel Embiid, the concept of forcing Jokic to see the biggest body possible on the help has its merits. Though I’m sure Jokic will crack that code too. Game 3 on May 5th.

The post Nikola Jokic: Destroyer of Worlds appeared first on Swish Theory.

Yes, AD’s defense was the takeaway from Game One, to film-watchers, to casuals, even to nationally televised talking heads. (Even while, by the way, scoring 30 points.) Accumulating four highlight-level blocks will do that. But all that well-deserved praise for Davis’ defense may still not be enough –  the degree to which he warped the floor vs. the Dubs cannot be overstated. Lakers’ defenders were practically escorting various Warriors to the paint, knowing they had AD behind them. And I don’t just mean, say, icing ball screens and funneling ball-handlers away from the middle of the court. Look at D’Angelo Russell allowing Steph Curry a whole side of the floor on Davis’ final, game-saving block:

This is what the Warriors are contending with, likely the main thrust for the remainder of this series. How the hell can they pull AD away from the paint, or work for shots that aren’t under the threat of being sent into the third row?

They’re going to have to get creative, particularly because they can’t truly run a five-out offense, or at least one with five spacers on the floor. It’s not just that Davis can disregard Draymond Green and/or Kevon Looney in help, although he certainly can to great effect – just look at the above block. Of perhaps greater import is Davis sagging off those two when they have the ball at the top of the key, looking to initiate offense. Of course, many have done the same, but AD’s special blend of length and mobility turn things up a notch:

As seen above, Lakers defenders aggressively top-locked various Warriors in Game One without fear of getting back-cut to the rim. Even while “guarding” the ball, Davis is waiting for cutters in the lane. Dribble-handoffs, then, simply aren’t an option, and it’s not like challenging AD in the mid-range or at the rim is a preferable alternative. But, even when the Dubs did get into handoffs or pick-and-rolls, Davis wasn’t sagging back in the paint, but rather playing much closer to the level:

To that end, the Lakers, Dennis Schroder and Jarred Vanderbilt in particular, did an excellent job of getting over screens in Game One, as seen above. It also helps that Davis doesn’t have to worry about the screener rolling to the rim and catching a lob because, well, is there a Warrior that can do that?

This all made it an absolute treat to watch Steve Kerr figure out how to produce quality shots in the midst of Davis’ singularity. Sound on:

So, while AD did stroll into the Chase Center and threw a haymaker, the Warriors did figure out how to land some counterpunches. Kerr went away from Green-Looney lineups as the game progressed, which will likely continue as the series wears on, stretching out the court and allowing Golden State to play faster. That came to fruition in the 14-0 run they went on toward the end of the fourth quarter, nearly snatching a win from the jaws of defeat. The Dubs, as they always are, are coming.

This brings me to the LeBron James question. As the Warriors gradually space the floor and make Davis just a little uncomfortable on defense, stretching him out as much as they can, LBJ’s secondary rim protection becomes even more vital. The last time L.A. made it this far in the postseason, it was The Bubble, and LeBron played at an All-Defense level alongside AD’s generational level. It propelled the 2020 Lakers to all-time-great-playoff-defense status. How much of that juice can The King conjure up this time around?

In Game One, there were fantastic signs, plays that flashed back to The Bubble, where Davis would construct the fort and Bron would detail it:

There were also plays where LeBron would revert to regular season mode, getting back-cut or, more importantly, failing to make a backline rotation when the Warriors successfully pulled Davis out of the paint:

Anthony Davis is going to shoulder an enormous defensive load in this series, there’s no two ways about it. And, if Game One was any indication, he’ll do it phenomenally. Steve Kerr and Golden State will adjust, however; they’ll scheme up ways to mess with Davis, whether avoiding him entirely or sneaking behind him to get to the rim. This is where the defense of LeBron James comes into the equation. It feels silly to question him, but it also feels silly to dismiss the notion that, particularly on one good foot, he won’t be able to be the secondary rim protector that the Lakers need, the force that has made their defense so dominant in the past.

Yes, a Game One is often a feel-out, and Tuesday night’s Lakers-Warriors contest was no different. But it taught us a lot about how the rest of this hugely anticipated series is going to go, what and who to look out for. Thursday night should be a blast.

The post Anthony Davis Is Undeniable, but the Lakers Will Need More appeared first on Swish Theory.

A few weeks ago, while going from bar to apartment to inevitably discuss cryptids and antigravity technology, an idea was born. My friend (who I will not name, but he knows who he is) and I turned our discussion to basketball, as we are wont to do, and the conversation brought up an interesting thought: what are the side effects of guarding Steph Curry?

With the end of the regular season rapidly approaching, I wanted to explore the possibilities while using the playoffs as the ideal frame of reference. And one very interesting thought stuck with me the whole time, so I solved it the only way I know how: hunkering over my laptop, poring over stats, tracking figures, and film going back to 2018.

The question I want to solve is: What is the cost to a player’s offense who is guarding Steph Curry?

This graph was the end result in my mind’s eye (made real by our amazing editor Matt) but there was far, far more under the surface than I anticipated.

The Theory

It’s no secret that Steph is one of the most active players around, running people ragged around the court both on and off the ball. But it’s important to put some numbers behind conventional wisdom. For the purposes of this article, since defensive tracking numbers only go back to the 2017/18 playoffs, we will use the last four playoff runs as our data.

One clear theme emerges from Steph’s past playoff runs: a gradual buildup in activity as the games become more intense. In 17/18, after missing the first round with injury, Steph moved 2.43 miles per game in the conference semifinals against New Orleans. He increased that to 2.8 miles in the conference finals (first among all players) with 1.53 offensive miles, the second-highest figure. He ratcheted that up to 2.95 miles in the Finals against Cleveland, ranking first in total and offensive miles run. It wasn’t even close. All four guards who managed to beat Steph’s 2.74 MPG mark for the whole playoffs were far younger.

The story was the same in 2018-19. He went from 2.56 miles in the first round to 2.82 in the second, then 2.9 miles in the conference finals against Portland before racking up an absurd 3.13 miles per game against Toronto in the Finals. That was the hardest Steph has worked in a single playoff series, and it resulted in a 3rd overall finish in miles per game for the entire playoffs. Once again, the guards who finished ahead (Klay Thompson and CJ McCollum, who was guarding Steph often) were much younger at the time.

He saw a slight fluctuation in numbers for the 2021-22 playoffs, posting his highest MPG mark in the conference semis against Memphis and another high figure in the Finals against Boston. The overall movement for the entire run was not as elite, finishing 16th overall amongst guards, but every player ahead of him was (you guessed it) younger.

In the Warriors’ first-round series against the Kings, Steph ran the Kings’ perimeter defenders into the ground. His 1.73 offensive miles per game ranked first amongst all players, punishing Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell, and Keegan Murray, his three primary defenders. This insane level of movement not only contributed to his bananas 33.7 points per game, but it also led to some pretty drastic effects on the Sacramento offense as a result.

Season-By-Season

The effects of that level of intense defensive focus have tangible effects on their offense. I charted the 3 defenders on Sacramento who saw more than 15 minutes of time guarding Steph and compared their shooting figures to the rest of the team in the playoffs and their own regular season numbers. It seems there is at least some statistical evidence that guarding the toughest cover in basketball was sapping the energy needed to contribute on offense, as you can see below:

Even when accounting for the dip in shooting numbers for the playoffs, the dip in team-relative true shooting percentage only increased with more possessions spent guarding Steph. But a single series does not a conclusion make, so I had to go back further to check this theory before making any definitive conclusions.

2021/22 Stats

The numbers only become more interesting when adding more data. Some players certainly did not have major dropoffs, but some of these can also be explained by the overall success of the team.

Monte Morris, Desmond Bane, and Dorian Finney-Smith certainly stand out as positives, contrary to the theory. 5/8 defenders seeing a team-relative dip doesn’t point to a definitive conclusion, but good ol’ variance has to be taken into account. It’s also worth pointing out that the dips tend to outweigh the peaks: the biggest TS% dips outweigh the increases, pointing to the possibility that they hold the stronger variance and that another element (like Steph’s effort – Stephort?) is at work.

Going back to the distance run numbers is important for these series. The two highest marks of distance ran offensively came in the Boston and Memphis matchups, where all but Desmond Bane (far and away the best offensive player on this list) saw a drop. In his lower-effort matchups, only half of his defenders saw a dip. Again, not empirical evidence, but it points to something beneath the surface we cannot yet quantify.

2018-19 Stats

This is where things start to get muddier, but point to an overall direction of the theory.

Going through these numbers pointed to the heightened variance of the playoffs. His 2.9 miles per game led to CJ McCollum being the highest-movement player in the entire Conference Finals, leading to a -6.0% rTS and a four-game sweep. Yet his movement only became heightened in the Finals but seemed to have no effect on Fred VanVleet. It’s easy to chalk this up to his new-dad strength (especially considering how Danny Green’s production suffered as the #1 Steph defender) but it also reminds us that even if you’re dog tired and chucking up late shotclock rainbows, they can still find the bottom of the net. It also pointed to a difference in production based on the offensive archetype of the player (which we will get into soon).

2017-18 Stats

Perhaps the most clear and obvious case comes in the 2017-18 season. Coming off an early injury that cost him the opening round of the playoffs, he was a rather lackluster mover against the New Orleans Pelicans in the conference semifinals before ramping up to insane levels against Houston and Cleveland to close out his third championship. And the numbers correlate directly to the offensive production of those guarding him.

Moore had the easiest assignment in terms of offensive movement, and it’s no surprise he posted a +10% rTS given Steph’s physical limitations. Trevor Ariza did not have that easy of a time in the conference finals, contending with the most minutes guarding Steph of any player that tracking data shows. He was absolutely gassed, and it was certainly a factor in his scoreless, 0/12 shooting performance in Game 7. The Rockets, short on other defenders, were forced to put Harden on Steph and the Beard lost some of his elite production. Gerald Green certainly fared better than Ariza but suffered as well.

Steph followed up this performance by running J.R. Smith into the ground with 2.95 miles per game over a four-game sweep, and his -11% rTS somehow beat Ariza for the worst shooting of any Steph defender in that run. Only Kevin Huerter and Dillon Brooks have managed to outdo (feels like the wrong word) his abysmal offensive series.

In the end, there is a compelling statistical case that guarding Steph has a blanket offensive effect. These players on average posted an eFG% 2.34% below the playoff average for that season and a -3.52% rTS. You could argue this is due to the nature of the players being defense-first, or the Warriors’ playoff defense. Though the team-relative rTS% figures dispel the second notion, there is something to be said about the kind of player who is guarding Steph. How does their role on offense change these effects?

Archetype Buckets

I sorted all of these defenders into three overall buckets: primary creators, secondary creators, and off-ball guards/wings. This bears out some very interesting data.

Only two true primaries have guarded Steph for heavy minutes over these past four playoff runs. Both suffered the same fate in terms of decreased production.

It stands to reason that taking minutes against the toughest guard to cover in the game while shouldering the offensive load is not a good mix, and the numbers confirm that. What is interesting is when you get to the secondary creators, which brings team philosophy into the equation.

4/5 seeing increased production is statistically significant, and warrants further discussion. The decrease in primary production and increased secondary are tied to Golden State’s defensive philosophy: shut off the #1 option and make everyone else beat you. In this case, some of these players managed to punish decreased coverage while shouldering the Steph load on defense, which is incredibly impressive, and this is an impressive list of secondaries. It may also explain why both primaries saw large drops.

But the meat of the players are just off-ball guys, and the results were predictably all over the place.

In the aggregate, these off-ball players posted a collective -2.14 rTS%. It may not be statistically significant given the variance of outside shooting, especially in the playoffs, but falls in line with the overall -3.52 rTS%. The six highest-activity Steph series across this time period also correlated to five of the six worst shooting marks; only Danny Green managed to stay close to normal. Kevin Huerter, Dillon Brooks, Derrick White, Trevor Ariza, and J.R. Smith were all direct victims of his unfathomable cardio level. I have a hard time explaining how those drastically below-average shooting marks follow his highest activity series other than this: the original hypothesis does have some merit.

The more Steph wears you down with his offense, the more your offense will suffer.

So, what do we do with this information?

Final Numbers and Conclusion

Though this is far above my pay grade to spit out a final R-value, as the data is far too subjective and variable in nature, conclusions can certainly be drawn.

It’s patently clear that nobody has placed primaries on Steph since 2018 for a reason. The increase in production for secondary creators is also of interest: with the upcoming series against the Lakers, Curry will see a lot of Austin Reaves and Dennis Schröder, both relied upon for secondary creation. I will be closely watching their production to add more data to the set, and we will see if they reinforce the case for them as the ideal matchup for the defending team or fall back to average. The overall numbers for off-ball wings seem to point towards a tangible effect, especially considering the awful numbers for the players subject to his highest-activity series.

What’s also clear to me is that though an average number is hard to place, let alone a predictive figure, there is a measured offensive slowdown for those asked to guard Steph. Not only is he dropping 30 on their heads more often than not, but he also saps the energy of those trying their damndest to slow him. It would seem to behoove teams to put their lowest-activity/importance offensive players on Steph as a tiebreaker over other defenders who play less of a role (ex. Lakers using Jarred Vanderbilt over Reaves/Schröder)

In fact, the relative numbers were down for his defenders in three of the last four playoff runs, and only Fred VanVleet’s absurd dad strength could keep that mark from being 4/4. That sounds pretty tangible to me.

After a scorching first round, let’s see how many miles Steph posts against the Lakers. If he’s anywhere close to 3 miles per game, they are in huuuuuge trouble.

The post The Hidden Cost of Guarding Steph Curry appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stephen Curry vs LeBron James. A rivalry that defines this generation of the NBA will potentially have its last dance and like the infamous football/soccer coach, Pep Guardiola, once said—”we will be there” (not actually there because the prices for these games are already off the charts but anyways).

This should be an electric series between two teams that have had their share of ups and downs and are coming in hot with a chip on their shoulder. But enough with the talking, let’s dive into what this all will look like on the court.

Matchups

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry
• D’Angelo Russell on Klay Thompson
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Andrew Wiggins
• LeBron James on Draymond Green
• Anthony Davis on Kevon Looney

For Golden State:

• Klay Thompson on D’Angelo Russell
• Stephen Curry on Austin Reaves
• Draymond Green on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Andrew Wiggins on LeBron James
• Kevon Looney on Anthony Davis

Starting with LA, the talk around the matchup is the “who guards Steph?” problem, and out of that first group, I trust Austin Reaves to be the guy. Per BBall Index, Reaves graded out as an A- in Off-Ball Chaser Defense and in Ball Screen Navigation, two very key skills you need to have defensively if you want to take on the task that is Stephen Curry. 

There has been talk from media and fans about Davis potentially guarding Draymond and LeBron guarding Looney which I can see, but to start the series I think Darvin Ham will go with a vanilla approach and not get too cute just yet. Looney is involved in a lot of Golden State’s actions, just like Draymond, and I think AD could split time between the two while still having the same impact defensively. 

For Golden State, I think the key here is Draymond on Vanderbilt. In the regular season matchups, Draymond showed little to no respect to Vanderbilt when he was “guarding” him and at times spent whole possessions heavily shadowing Anthony Davis who was primarily guarded by Looney. With Green roaming to help on Davis, this could cause trouble for LA in terms of Vanderbilt’s usage offensively and the spacing problems that could pursue from that matchup.

Stopping Steph?

In the famous words of the legendary Kevin Harlan, “You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him!”

Long answer: stopping Steph is a proposition that many teams have tried and have failed in doing so. Do you go all out in stopping him or do you let him cook while you try and shut off Golden State’s other avenues to score? I think the Lakers will lean heavily toward the latter.

The Lakers and Warriors played in three games after the trade deadline with LA’s new cast and they defended Golden State the same way every single time. Putting a heavy emphasis on gapping the Warriors’ poor/non-shooters—Green, Looney, Kuminga, JaMychal Green to some extent, and I would assume Gary Payton II to be in this group although he didn’t play in these matchups—to cut off passing angles and for the Warriors free-flowing, spaced out offense.

And although Kuminga made that three, you’d much rather him taking threes than Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, or Divincenzo getting threes or layups like how they usually do in their offense. This gap defense can disrupt how Golden State normally attacks and it will be on them to counter. The guards guarding the shooters running around will also have to top-lock (when a defender stands between the screener and the person you’re guarding) to deny easy handoffs and if the guards cut, they’ll cut right into Anthony Davis or LeBron James. With off-ball chasers like Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr., and even D’Angelo Russell who is really solid in this role when locked in, LA has the personnel to execute this defense fairly well. 

But we still haven’t answered the proposed question of stopping or even containing Steph. The best way to contain him while also containing their offense as a whole would be—prepare yourselves—drop coverage. 

But no, not that drop coverage with the big man sinking all the way in the paint and daring the ballhandler to hit pull-up jumpers. It’s Steph Curry. I’m recommending a higher variation of drop where the ballhandler’s defender still goes over the screen, but the big man is much higher, usually anywhere from the free throw line out to the 3-point line. 

Just like the other scheme against Golden State, the Lakers ran this during all three of those meetups post-deadline and it worked to a tee.

Now of course this isn’t the ultimate cheat code defense that will hold Steph to 20 points per game on bad efficiency. Steph will still get his because of his greatness but you have to play the long game with this defense and focus on the process of “how hard of looks are they getting?” vs the results of whether or not the ball is going in for them. 

With the greatness that is Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, nothing seems too farfetched as he is the key to this defensive strategy and is one of the few guys in the league that could actually execute it. We are asking him to be our main rim protector while also being fairly high on Steph where he can contest and maybe even block a couple 3s. It will be a tough task for The Brow but I honestly believe there is nobody in the league I’d rather have for this gameplan.

Answers for AD?

Speaking of AD, the Warriors will have to navigate how they deal with him while they’re on defense as well. In the latest matchup between the two teams, Davis detonated for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks on 64% True Shooting while hitting a mean dagger post shot over the lauded defender, Draymond Green. 

Davis presents a harder challenge for the Warriors than what they dealt with in the first round with Domantas Sabonis. Draymond and Looney were able to sag off of Sabonis and give him a great amount of space since Sabonis isn’t really comfortable as a scorer if he’s right near the rim for a layup. That meant post shots, floaters, midranges, and threes were off the table and were a complete non-factor for Sabonis as Draymond and Looney camped under the rim. 

You simply can not do that against Anthony Davis. 

AD is more of a finesse and quickness big with real touch and is perfectly fine with living in the post hook/floater range if need be. A primary attack I’d like LA to go with in terms of getting AD going would be to get him flowing off of movement so that he can attack the foot speed of Looney, in particular, but even Draymond as well. We saw the Lakers go to this way of attacking for that last matchup where Davis dropped a near 40-piece, running a lot of 5-out delay sets and setting pindown screens for AD for him to attack Looney. 

This isn’t the only way though, Davis will kill any 1-on-1 matchups in the post if you don’t send some type of help. AD actually had a very uncharacteristic post-up efficiency series against the Grizzlies where he got his typical looks that he makes most of the time, but just missed them. I would have to expect that those shots are bound to fall eventually and I think this can be the series where that happens. 

On top of AD being a hell of a mismatch on the ground, the Warriors can not match his verticality either. The tallest player the Warriors play in their rotation is Kevon Looney who is 6-9 but very floor bound. This is a complete contrast to what Davis had to deal with last round with the 6-11 terror Jaren Jackson Jr. who could match AD’s size and even still he had a very rough time guarding him. 

Because of all this, I’m expecting the Warriors to commit a ton of attention and help toward Davis’ way. Although they seem very locked in on not letting him get free Pick-and-Roll lobs and layups, they do not seem as disciplined in their post defense whereas Memphis very much was and it could’ve been one of the factors that kept AD’s efficiency for the series way lower than what we expect from him. Think this could potentially unlock some of AD’s passing too as he will have to make some pretty solid reads in order to counter the help they will send his way. The Warriors will make it tough for AD but this isn’t anything he hasn’t seen before and I think he just completed the test against a tougher Memphis matchup for him offensively. 

X-Factors

For Los Angeles

• LeBron James and Anthony Davis
• Lakers guards

Outside of Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, the stars for LA were pretty average in the 1st round matchup against Memphis. I think there is a world where Davis could have the same or even a bigger impact than Curry in this series and the Lakers will need that type of production from their superstar to win this one. With LeBron tending to his lingering foot issue, I’m just unsure of what he will bring to the series on the offensive end. Will he be the on-ball engine like we’ve seen throughout the previous 19 years of his career or again will he be this off-ball cog in the machine? And if he continues to be off-ball which is fine by me, he’ll have to be able to shoot threes at a respectable clip which he did not against Memphis.

LA’s guards again will have a big impact on this series. Austin Reaves is pretty much the only guard in the Lakers rotation that consistently produces and you don’t have to worry about him on the offensive side of the ball really. But D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and possibly Malik Beasley and/or Troy Brown Jr. could all play huge swing factor roles on the offensive side of the ball. Not sure how it looks in the stats, but just from a feel perspective, it seems like when D’Angelo Russell has a good game, the Lakers have a 90% chance of winning. I think he will be a little bit more looser than he was in the Memphis series with him not having to deal with as much physicality. The Lakers will be depending on Schröder’s defense so that’s why he is an x-factor but if Beasley or Brown Jr. could just start hitting shots, it could go a long way. Those two combined to shoot 6-for-30 (a whopping 20%) from three in the Memphis series so just them hitting shots could swing the series in LA’s favor.

For Golden State

• Draymond Green
• Klay Thompson/Andrew Wiggins

Draymond Green’s offensive ability will be tested in this series. Just like how the Warriors tested Sabonis’ ability in the first round. He will have to have the mindset of being aggressive on offense and not minding being a scorer which he’s shown he can have at times—Game 5 vs Sacramento—but can he do it efficiently and consistently? That is the real question and should be answered throughout the series.

On top of Klay and Wiggins just having to hit shots, they may be relied upon to create and provide some offense that may be more than usual for them. I think Golden State will look for mismatches on these two when they can and try to get them post looks which will be helpful. But after both had a pretty average first-round series on the offensive side of the ball, their number could be called a lot more vs Los Angeles.

Prediction Time

Lakers in 7.

I believe this will be a long, hard-fought series that will end with the Lakers coming out victorious. Whether it’s six and they win at Crypto.com Arena or seven away on the road, I think the Lakers are coming into this one with the tactical advantage over the Warriors and will try to impose their strength and size against a small-ball Warriors team. LA will be forceful in trying to establish their paint presence just from points in the paint but also on the free throw line where they drew the second most fouls per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Warriors committed the third-most personal fouls per game, so the whistle should play a factor and be in LA’s favor just based off of playstyle.

Either way, I simply cannot wait to enjoy this series to the fullest and live through what may be the last chapter of LeBron vs Steph. Two legends that had their hand in reshaping the game into the way it is now and I’ll forever be appreciative towards them for that. But again, enough with all the talking man—let’s hoop!

The post Warriors vs Lakers Series Preview: Steph vs LeBron Part V appeared first on Swish Theory.

There has not since been a men’s college basketball team as electrifying as their 2016-17 Wildcats, also featuring Bam Adebayo. Thanks to Fox and Monk sprinting the ball up the floor on every possession, UK played at a breakneck pace that thrust some classic battles upon us. Lonzo Ball went into Rupp Arena, amidst all the Ball v. Fox hype of the 2017 NBA draft cycle, and shushed the crowd in a 97-92 UCLA win. Three months later, Fox hung 39 on his head to knock UCLA out of the NCAA Tournament. There was also the time Monk dropped 47(!) on UNC in a 103-100(!!) win in late December. Yet, three months later, Luke Maye got it back in blood, hitting his famous buzzer beater to send Kentucky home in an Elite 8 all-timer.

Fox sat in the locker room after that loss, hugging Adebayo and sobbing during an interview. That intimate moment, where Fox continually repeats how much he loves his guys, is one of the more touching moments college basketball has produced, for me, and emblematic of what made that Kentucky team so magnetic. Monk punched air and screamed after every big play, whether by him or a teammate. Fox, whose competitiveness was a tad more reserved, showing up in ways like guarding Ball full-court in their matchups, would only join Monk in outward celebration during their most euphoric moments. The many that argued that college basketball was losing its soul in a one-and-done era nearing the creation of NIL clearly weren’t watching Fox and Monk at Kentucky.

The reunion of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk in Sacramento isn’t just one of this postseason’s best storylines because it feels nice, though. They’re hooping. The same two hair-raising athletes that arrived in Kentucky when Kevin Durant arrived in Golden State are now looking to drive a stake through the heart of a basketball dynasty. You grow up fast.

The league’s best regular season offense has an ORTG of only 111.9 over their first four games against the Warriors, just a 40th percentile mark. However, when Fox and Monk share the court, that number balloons to 121.7 without much defensive slippage. (Monk in particular has some ridiculous on/off splits, SAC’s offense has been 18 points/100 better with him. 18!)  Overall, Fox/Monk lineups have played just fewer than half of this series’ possessions, but are out-scoring the Dubs by nearly nine points/100. 

Some of this is due to the non-Monk Kings, particularly Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes, missing just about every 3-pointer they take. But Monk’s only shooting a mediocre 35% from deep against the Dubs himself. In a beautiful, full-circle moment, the questions Fox and Monk have answered from their Kentucky days has turned them into a dynamic, complementary backcourt, one that Sacramento is depending on.

Monk has always been an explosive athlete with outside shooting touch, the question for him was if he could turn those skills into halfcourt creation reps. The perennial demand of his archetype: Can he slow down and incorporate some craft into his game? The answer, clearly, is yes.

The fun part about Monk’s growth as a creator is not that he’s overhauled his offensive game, rather the opposite. By playing with varied pace and then refining the details of that pace – screen usage as a guard, eye manipulation, etc. – Monk allows his athleticism and touch to shine, and now we’re wowed again.

The screen usage, specifically, is popping vs. Golden State. At this rate, there may not be a more feared screen rejector in the league by the start of next season. Monk has seemingly rejected as many ball-screens as he’s actually, you know, used in this series, but the results have been fantastic.

Fantastic…and fun! Cross-spin, pound-cross, killer cross, Monk is cooking the only way he knows how. Yet, as those clips evidence, Golden State can’t throw their best perimeter defender on the court, whoever that may be at the time, on him. Why? Well, that guy has to worry about De’Aaron Fox.

Fox always did and still does face questions as an outside shooter, and therefore, an off-ball player. But his 32% mark from deep on the year belies the quality of shooter he’s really turned into. Forget the Game 2 dagger to give the Kings a late, insurmountable 107-101 after being 1-9 from deep up to that point. How about standing up to a vintage Steph Curry bomb with a catch-and-shoot off of, of course, a Monk drive-and-kick:

Fox and Monk are now largely interchangeable, or at least capable, as offensive creators and spacers. Late in the first quarter of Game 4, Andrew Wiggins was guarding Fox, forcing Moses Moody to knuckle up and stay in front of Monk. He, somewhat predictably, could not avoid the inevitability of Monk successfully rejecting a screen. Meanwhile, on the weak side, Fox slyly lifted from the corner to the wing, creating a more open but more functionally difficult pass for Monk to make off of his drive. He made it anyway:

Fox and Monk have each done the work to make this backcourt work once again, this time in an NBA setting, six years later, without even knowing it. This is, after all, Monk’s first season in SacTown, and each of their first playoff appearances. Not only have they covered the holes in their games, but they’ve covered each other too, allowing for more classic Fox and Monk magic.

With the ex-Wildcats, the Kings can push the ball up court with either one, just like we saw at Kentucky. Having two speedy ball-handlers on the court, rather than just one release valve, makes a world of difference for Sacramento.

• Transition points/100, total: 106.6
• Transition points/100 (Fox/Monk minutes): 126.7

In transition, the fellas play the classics. Here, Fox sprints the ball up court, even after the Kings have to take the ball out of the net. No problem. He collapses the defense severely on his jaunt toward the paint, and the Warriors are out of whack immediately in the possession, to the point where nobody notices Monk relocating along the perimeter. Well, nobody besides Fox:

This isn’t (just) small sample size theatrics, or a case of streaky shooting from Monk. He and his point-guard-for-life have developed into such a cohesive backcourt that they are not only working on an NBA floor, a thought that would’ve brought a tear to my eye six years ago, but they might be Sacramento’s best answer for the defending champions. Of course, things aren’t all rosy in the City of Trees. Fox, in a monumental Game 5, plans on playing through an avulsion fracture in his dominant index finger. Monk, for all his chaotic brilliance in this series to date, dipped into some poor, old habits late in Game 4 by being a little overzealous early in the shot-clock and kamikaze-ing Kings possessions. Head Coach Mike Brown alluded to it in his post-game presser after Game 4, saying his guys were “driving into two, sometimes three guys, in transition and begging for a call, and we can’t continue to do that.”

Regardless, what Fox and Monk are doing in Sacramento must be appreciated, even if their season may be as little as two days away from over. Their Kentucky days, which will live on in highlights and quick winks to the real NBA fans for knowing they existed, were so much more than just that. Their Sacramento days are becoming the perfect epilogue to that era. As basketball players, their improvements have made this pairing possible once again; their current synergy is deeper than it was, improved in the ways that every 19-year-old hopes to improve in by the time they’re 25. They can no longer be pigeon-holed, limited to specific functions; their relationship is fuller, more complex and meaningful because of it. Kings basketball has been dripping in that incalculable ‘something special’ all season long, and for it, they owe a big thank you to De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. As basketball fans, so do we.

The post De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are Still Special appeared first on Swish Theory.

Conference Semifinals

East Round 2, Series 1: Team Gannon vs. Team Josh A.

#1 Seed – Team Gannon

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Porter (aka TrillBro)’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Gannon 3

First off. These teams are built extremely well around their star players. I love that the Harden team is filled with switchable defenders who all can either spot up or create their own shot in a pinch. If this team were built around peak James Harden (2017-2020) I think it would be virtually unstoppable. Also thank you for giving me some PTSD from previous Sixers playoff series – mainly the old Celtics series – where an Embiid team has to matchup with a wing heavy two way team that can cause him nightmares. This team is certainly more balanced if you are looking to build a two way force in a playoff setting. Defensively this team would be a nightmare to score against – especially if Evan Mobley is able to stay out of foul trouble – but their main weakness to me is that they would not be able to apply the rim pressure that a prime Harden team would provide. 

As a Sixers fan .. the Embiid team is also a dream. While they might have some limited two way players (DFS on offense, Garland on defense) they all fit around Embiid like a glove and really build on his strengths. Garland is the exact kind of guard that will thrive with Embiid. He can run actions in the pick and roll to get Embiid the ball in his spots, he also can thrive off the ball running DHOs with Embiid or spotting up when Embiid has the ball in the post. As a vertical spacer and rebounder, Robert Williams provides the exact dunker spot threat that the Sixers are currently missing. DFS in the corners is also money. While this team might be exposed in drop coverage if you can involve Garland and Embiid in actions on the perimeter you would have four elite team defenders in the starting lineup (and two other rim protectors) that could make up for this weakness. Offensively I could see this team becoming a bit stagnant if Garland and Embiid’s shots are not falling but Embiid will living at the line, while also putting Evan Mobley deep in foul trouble early and often, and Garland’s playmaking and shot making combination should be enough to carry the load 

Ultimately this comes down to what do you want more? A team with a true superstar that has or a team with more two way versatility and shooting at every position. Maybe I am biased as a Sixers fan here but I think that Joel Embiid is the best player in the series by a fairly wide margin – and while he has had some playoff shortcomings in the past – this is the best version of him and this team would be a nearly perfect combination of star power and role players to highlight his strengths. Offensively I believe this gives them a massive advantage over any team that does not a surefire number one option.Mikal Bridges recent star leap is an interesting wrinkle but against a great playoff defense I am not sure if we can expect him to provide the same level of production that he has provided over the last 25-30 games as the number option in Brooklyn. If you could rewind Harden by 3-5 years when he provided more rim pressure or even fast forward Evan Mobley 3 years when he will be stronger for the Embiid matchup (not that one person can stop Embiid but you need to have a baseline level of strength) and more developed offensively, this series would probably swing in the other direction. 

East Round 2, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Will

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Ian Levy Decision: Team Will 4, Team Oscar 2

Team Oscar has a lot of advantages on the perimeter and homecourt advantage implies that they’re coming into this series as the higher seed and favorite. But I think Giannis would present a unique challenge (as he does in the real world, with literally every team), even if Grant Williams has historically done a decent job on him. 

With Team Will basically replicating Milwaukee’s formidable defensive frontcourt, I think they can handle the multiple creators on Team Oscar, and happily live with a lot of contested mid-range jumpers from Butler and Brown. I also imagine Team Will would have a fairly significant edge on the glass, which would be a meaningful advantage at both ends.

I don’t think this is a blowout series, I think there are a lot of close games. But Team Will’s defense holding up and Giannis manifesting his will around the basket is the difference.

West Round 2, Series 1: Team Sajdak vs. Team Tyler

#1 Seed – Team Sajdak

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent. 

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

vs. #4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

Todd Whitehead’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Sajdak 1

Team Sajdak looks a lot like last year’s Memphis Grizzlies team, just with absolutely none of the vibes. Imagine if the 2022 NBA Executive of the Year, Zach Kleiman, decided to orchestrate a multi-team deal that cut ties with Memphis’ beloved, homegrown core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke in exchange for the obviously talented but sometimes prickly trio of Irving, Towns, and Hardaway and then, as the playoffs were getting started, he decided to just rip out whatever was left of the heart of his team by handing over Brooks and Adams to his opponent, totally gratis. That’s basically what this series is! 

I have an app that takes a hypothetical 5-man lineup and tries to spit out the real NBA lineups that look most similar to it. I fed it the proposed lineup of Irving, Hardaway, Anderson, Jackson, and Towns and it started smoking and the message it returned just said “FUNKY”. The simple fact is that there are not a lot of frontcourts that look as #funky and #weird as this one. Interestingly, there are several current and former teammate pairs in this series and Anderson has played real-life minutes with both Jackson and Towns. But could all three of them work together? In the previous two seasons in Memphis, Anderson rarely shared the court with Jackson and the minutes those two played alongside another big (Adams, Clarke, or Jonas Valanciunas) were net negative. Likewise, the trio of Anderson, Towns, and Gobert have rarely played at the same time this season in Minnesota, and the minutes they have shared have been a minus. Of course, the dual-stretchiness of Towns and Jackson would add a different dimension to this frontcourt which wasn’t available in Memphis or Minnesota, so maybe the spacing would be fine, but I remain a little skeptical.

Team Tyler, on the other hand, is like a Frankenstein monster of pieces of the best teams in the West. We know, empirically, that these players can (and do) pair nicely together: lineups with Durant and Paul are +15 points per 100 possessions in Phoenix this season, Murray and Gordon are +12 in Denver, and Brooks and Adams are +11 in Memphis. Moreover, Durant, Paul, and Murray have all proven in recent years that they can thrive as both primary or complementary options on offense. Over their last three healthy seasons, each of these stars has taken at least 200 spot-up threes, making 45, 41, and 43% of them, respectively. Toss in DiVincenzo – who has made 42% of his own 299 spot-up threes over the last three years – and Team Tyler is going to have plenty of ways to stretch opposing defenses. They will be able to attack with multiple weapons and should be able to do more than just “take turns” trying to score.

In terms of matchups, I don’t see any real issues for Team Tyler. Stevens can hold his own on Towns, Gordon can guard Jackson, Durant can matchup with Anderson and take some liberties in helping out around the rim, Murray can be stashed on Hardaway, and Paul should give Irving a stiff challenge. Having the ability to mix in Brooks or DiVincenzo is a nice bonus, allowing Team Tyler to throw a different look at any shooters from Team Sajdak who happen to get hot. On the flip side, I’d say the biggest question marks will be – who is Irving going to guard from Team Tyler? And can Slo Mo slow down KD enough to keep it interesting? In my opinion, Team Tyler rolls. 

West Round 2, Series 2: Team Neema vs. Team Corban

#2. Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #6. Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Joe Viray’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Corban 3

This was a pretty difficult decision for me because I think both teams have extremely viable arguments for winning a series against each other. On one hand, Team Neema has, in my opinion, the perfect combination of defensive versatility and offensive juice to power through just about any team that’s put in front of it. On the other hand, Team Corban has what Luka Doncic has always needed: shooters, and not just the league-average kind – I mean, bona fide SHOOTERS. Coupled with just enough defensive help, it can also power through almost any team you put in front of it.

However, what makes me choose Team Neema in a close series win is how perfectly built it is to take advantage of it’s one main strength: pace. In order to beat teams with pace, you need to catch opposing defenses on the back foot constantly. How do you do that? You make sure not to take the ball out of the basket as much as possible – and you do that with tough, hard-nosed defense, which this team has in spades. Compared to Team Corban, Team Neema also has much more rebounding talent, which will be important for them to immediately trigger the break. Ja Morant is the perfect point guard to play such an uptempo style. The wing trio of Wiggins, Porter, and Edwards is a unique blend of length, wing defense, and a powder keg that can provide explosive offense. Gary Payton II is an absolute hound and can make life difficult for any opposing ball handler. Looney and Clarke provide the hustle on the boards.

Ultimately, I think Team Neema may be a bit too much for Team Corban and its lack of athleticism beyond Jonathan Kuminga and lack of rim protection/deterrence beyond Draymond Green. Relentless rim pressure, dogged defense, and constant uptempo basketball will tire Team Corban out, especially Luka, who thrives in the deliberate nature of the half-court game but may be forced to sprint constantly against such an athletic team. Which is why I think Team Corban will eventually run out of gas as the series progresses. Team Neema takes it all the way.

Eastern Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Larro vs. Team Josh A.

#4 Seed – Team Larro

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Steph Noh’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Larro 2

Team Josh A. is going to take this one down in 6 games. The NBA is a star-driven league. As good as Donovan Mitchell has been, Joel Embiid is a tier above him. Embiid is going to be able to carry Team Josh A. in this matchup. 

In fairness to Team Larro, Embiid has struggled against the Cavs this season. Struggling for him though is still scoring 28 per game on 60 percent true shooting. And while Team Larro has Jarrett Allen, a great defender, to put on Embiid, Embiid is going to eat Kevin Love alive in the minutes where Allen sits. 

Team Larro also has Darius Garland, who has had one of the more underrated seasons in the league and been overshadowed by Mitchell’s superb year. Garland can help spread the floor for Embiid and set the big man up with his great court vision. 

Mitchell is liable to go off for a big number in this game. He’s averaged 37.5 points per game across four contests with the Celtics this season. But the spacing on that team is going to be iffy, with Smart and Crowder both streaky shooters and Jarrett Allen a non-shooter. Love and Grayson Allen could help alleviate some of those spacing issues, but Love is going to be tough to play in this series because of that Garland-Embiid pick-and-roll.

Round 1, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Josh U.

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #6 Seed – Josh U.

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

Samson Folk’s Decision: Team Oscar 4, Team Josh U. 2

So, my initial lean is that Team Oscar wins in 6 games. Tatum is the best player here, no doubt, but I do think that Team Josh U.’s offense could be greatly affected by an aggressive gameplan to overload on him. Grimes, Brogdon, Herro, all impressive players in their own right, and with Herro obviously being able to scale up as a primary creator for stretches. Blitz Tatum, and I’m fairly confident that over the course of the series that Team Oscar will be able to delete the dangerous areas on the floor and zone up the big areas often enough to move them into the deep shot clock. For posterity, I’m assuming that the talent on top teams has flattened out because of a fantasy draft, but I also think that Team 1 will be more limited in their offensive counters than Team 2 will be. 

Obviously Brown has some off-ball defense warts, but I think you can have a lot of fun by using him as Tatum’s primary defender. I also think that Team Oscar eventually swaps Williams and Harris – to a positive effect. 

I think Team Josh U. is going to have a Maxey problem. He can easily work off of either of Butler or Brown, and when it comes to punching gaps afforded by his fellow stars, Maxey can be the elite play finisher at all 3 levels and he can make progressive passing reads out of them. With Butler and Brown ready to collapse the defense at any point in time, that’s good eating. Butler is also uniquely gifted among wings when it comes to creating for bigs, and I think that creates the potential for a couple big games from Robinson. 

Considering how much switching would go on in this series, and the mobility on both sides, this series would probably be extremely fun to watch.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Pow vs. Team Will

#2 Seed – Team Pow

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Rob Schaefer Decision: Team Will 4, Team Pow 2

I landed on six games because this would be a highly-competitive matchup, but when picking an upset, it’s always more likely the underdog will close it out on their home floor.

As for the reasons for leaning towards Team 2: I certainly see the specter of a highly versatile defense with Bam Adebayo and Al Horford in the frontcourt and Jrue Holiday the head of the snake on the perimeter. And the isolation shot creation up and down the rotation is intriguing in close games.

What concerns me is Team 1’s offensive upside. Holiday and Quickley’s pull-up shooting could certainly foil what I imagine will be a drop-heavy scheme between Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Portis. But over the course of a seven-game series, I’m banking on Antetokounmpo and Lopez winning the math equation for Team 2 by erasing the painted area and mitigating the pressure points that Dinwiddie and Brunson defending at the point of attack could present. I foresee the ball sticking a bit for Team 1, which plays to their isolation strengths, but could also bog them down against such a proven defensive formula.

Antetokounmpo, of course, is also the best player in this hypothetical series by leaps and bounds. Adebayo and Horford have both been as effective as one could ask for in checking the Greek Freak in the past. I’m just wanting for different players than Thomas or Barrett off the bench for Team 1 that would be more reliable ball-movers, floor-spacers and defenders. I think Team 2 has a few more ways to adjust over the course of a seven-game series by, say, sliding Antetokounmpo to the 5 and Portis to the 4, or inserting Hauser (who’s no defensive liability) for Brunson, Dinwiddie or Hart if knockdown spot-up shooting is needed.

It would be close. It would be back-and-forth. But so says my gut.

Western Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Tyler vs. Team Avinash

#4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

vs. #5 Seed – Team Avinash

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

Shamit Dua’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Avinash 1

Normally when evaluating teams, I am looking at size, creation, and shooting. In this situation the creation and shooting of Team Tyler far exceeds the size advantages of Team Avinash. On a surface, the team starting those two bigs is going to cede significant ground on battle behind the 3 point line and when the game slows down, I do believe Team Avinash will have to decide between one of the two bigs to deploy during crunch time.

Zooming in a little bit, Team Tyler having home court advantage cannot be overlooked. Teams are 516-714 on the road this season. In addition, having the ability to deploy complimentary players around Kevin Durant at all positions is a great boon. Steven Adams, one of the league’s strongest bigs, matches up with Jokic in the post quite well. Meanwhile, this frees one of Kevin Durant or Aaron Gordon to roam off of Rudy Gobert. The reverse can also be true – Team Tyler can attach Aaron Gordon to Jokic and double with Adams off of Gobert. There is more lineup versatility on Tyler Tyler on both ends of the ball.

Meanwhile, the ability to deploy Brooks and Divincenzo at the point of attack greatly slows Team Avinash’s secondary creation options behind Jokic. Mike Conley seems to have found a similar fountain of youth that Chris Paul has, but as a grueling series goes forward, team 1’s ability to lean on Jamal Murray is a greater advantage than Jordan Poole.

Ultimately, I really do like the idea of Team Avinash, this just seems to be the worst possible matchup for them. The lack of size on the wing will significantly impact their ability to defend Kevin Durant – especially once team 1 goes “small” and spaces the bigs out. Frankly, a lineup of Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Dillon Brooks, Kevin Durant, and Aaron Gordon is terrifying.

I have Team Avinash winning one of their home games because Jokic is THAT good and I do believe this team is capable of winning the possession battle via rebounds and free throws, but I do not see a competitive series unfolding.

Round 1, Series 2: Team AJ vs. Team Corban

#3 Seed – Team AJ

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

vs. #6 Seed – Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Ricky O’Donnell’s Decision: Team Corban 4, Team AJ 2

I felt confident about a Team Corban victory initially, but questioned myself the more I thought about it. Ultimately, I’m going with Team Corban for a few reasons: 1) Luka is the best player in the series, 2) there’s a spot for him to hide defensive (on Bullock), 3) the Monk/Klay/Keegan contingent can bomb threes with volume and get out to a lead that will be very difficult for Team AJ to wipe away given their lack of volume shooting, and 4) I fully believe in Draymond’s ability to solve problems as they present themselves. 

I am a bit scared of the lack of defensive interior depth on Team Corban as I don’t believe in Wood’s ability to impact a playoff series much, but it’s possible Kuminga can even handle some small-ball five minutes and blitz more pick-and-rolls. I love the Brown-Kleber bench for Team AJ and the defensive versatility it gives them. The swing factor in this series is Klay’s ability to guard Fox – I cautiously think he’s up for it but ideally you have a better POA defender around. I have no idea who the Booker matchup is here, but I think Keegan and Kuminga at least have the size to slow him down, and I’m not sold on Booker hitting the gas to burn them to the cup.  Ultimately I think Luka surrounded by such great shooting is just too much, and Draymond can magically fix most of what ails this team defensively.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Neema vs. Team Charlie

#2 Seed – Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #7 Seed – Team Charlie

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

SJ’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Charlie 2

I chose Team Neema to win in a playoff series because I believe they have a better mix of  shooting, defense, rebounding and rim pressure than Team Charlie. While Anthony Edwards is an inconsistent defender, it’s mainly due to effort. With that being said, I like him and Andrew Wiggins on the wings defending with Kevon Looney manning the middle. They also have good POA defense with GP2 coming off the bench. Team Charlie’s shooting will win them a few games but Team Neema will ultimately win the series because of their defense and rebounding. Sabonis is the best rebounder when looking at both teams but Team Neema overall has a collection of better rebounders than Team Charlie.

I acknowledge (and so do you) that there are defensive schemes where both Sabonis and Naz Reid could look decent on defense but Team Charlie’s offense will be their biggest strength on defense. In a playoff setting I am usually wary of teams like this, especially given that I think Team Neema has the tools to exploit the weak defenders on Team Charlie. My biggest concern regarding Team Neema is their lack of playmaking. I think in this hypothetical universe if they did play and lose, it would’ve been because of the lack of playmaking. Team Charlie has 3-4 positive playmakers that can keep the ball moving which is definitely a strength of their team in addition to the shooting. The playoffs is *typically* a halfcourt game and Team Charlie definitely has the edge in the halfcourt because of this but coaching could mitigate some of the halfcourt concerns I have about Team Neema. 

Overall, I am more partial to defense and rebounding in the playoffs and I think lineup versatility is becoming more valuable which is why I went with Team Neema.

The post Swish Theory’s Playoff Remix: Results! appeared first on Swish Theory.

While that’s all well and fun, at Swish Theory we want to mix things up a bit. We want to imagine not just how teams currently constructed might perform, but…what if…everything was a little bit different?

That’s what we have here with the Swish Theory NBA Playoffs Remix. Fourteen contributors got together for a re-draft of all the players on playoff teams (top 7 seeds only, as of about a month ago – why the Mavs are here).

Who do you think would win? Basketball is a practice in creativity, let’s try to imagine the teams of the future, not just in 2023. We run these scenarios by special guest judge collaborators, to be announced over the course of the week – but who do you think will win?

The Teams: Eastern Conference

#1 Seed (last pick in first round): Team Gannon (@gannon_rice)

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

The pitch for the team is a souped-up version of the 2017 Rockets, with an actual #2 option. James Harden is James Harden, to clear up any confusion. Now, combine the defensive prominence of Trevor Ariza and the shotmaking of Eric Gordon, and out of the lab comes Mikal Bridges. Melton takes on the off-guard role of a less rabid Patrick Beverley with high volume three-point shooting. Cam Johnson is a modern-era Ryan Anderson and Victor Oladipo provides bench creation like Lou Williams, but with size and defense. Evan Mobley provides the two-way rim threat of Clint Capela, along with serious on-ball chops. Then we go 2 years in the future and snag Hartensteins short-roll playmaking and defensive feel, did I mention this Rockets team won 55 games?

Our offense will be predicated around James Harden, but not the typical heliocentric offense seen in the past. The offensive feel our bigs bring allows a 5-Out look, utilizing them with the ball above the arc spamming DHO’s with every one of our players and stagger/split offense on the wings. P&R will be a key part of our offense, with Harden carrying a bulk of the primary usage, either creating his own looks, kicking to shooters (4 guys at 40% from 3), or throwing lobs to the rolling bigs (spamming ghost screens if it’s Cam at the 4). Mikal has shown an incredible leap as a 25 efficient PPG 1B option who will excel playing off Harden and easing the on-ball load off him. If you’re not convinced, let’s go over everything the offense can do. A do-everything offensive engine, a capable #2 creator, elite shooting, positional versatility, and every single one of our players providing a connective ball-moving offense, unique to every other team. 

Selecting James Harden meant I had to cover up some of his defensive liabilities, and I did just that. Melton and Oladipo provide elite POA defense for 48 minutes, and provide positional versatility to guard up to the 3. Mikal will match up against the top wing, while having off-ball freedom to cause chaos. Mobley will be our anchor, versatile in any role and capable of being a helpside roamer at the 4 and being a primary 5 in our defensive scheme. That scheme, P&R wise, will feature a mix of everything. This includes switching with mobley at the 5, blitzing slow processors, playing drop with IHart + against non-mid range threats, and primarily playing at the level, incorporating a soft hedge. Playing against reigning all-defensive team members Mikal and Mobley will be hell for the star western conference forwards. The 2 names not mentioned in the scheme, Harden and Cam, are both capable of being switched 1-4, allowing for further versatility in a defensive lineup with length, off-ball hawks, perimeter stoppers, and elite rim protection. 

#2 Seed: Team Pow (@draftpow)

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

The two items that translate best from the regular season to the NBA playoffs are 1. defensive versatility and 2. tough shotmaking. When teams are able to lock into scheme, the NBA becomes a jousting competition, not exactly in iso but instead shooting pull ups aggressively after catching the ball on the move. With the best defensive personnel by far while still full of scorers and sound decision-makers (our starters have a combined 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio), we’ll play the territory game, winning possessions, finding open scorers and putting opposing stars in a bind.

In the playoffs, defenses are only as good as their worst defender. You need personnel who can not just fight through a screen but contest in an instant and understand how to recover in broken plays. My team’s worst defensive starter is Julius Randle, still league average and capable of locking in at a high level as an elite athlete. 

Second, you need to plan for your offense to go wrong. Your opponent will know where you’re trying to go, and your common ways of getting there. Players who can make adjustments on the swivel like Bam Adebayo, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickley are rare, especially when they can also hit tough shots. We can sneak in some easy looks off of back cuts to optimize our passing, as well as all-five screening using our strength. Our team is built to be on a swivel, and also have 45%,  38%, 37%, 34% three point shooting starters and flamethrower Cam Thomas off the bench. 

We have potential swing factors across the board as any of Jrue, Randle, Barrett, IQ, Cam Thomas and Bam have a combined 13 forty point games this season. We have the tough shotmaking and strongest collective quick decision making to optimize our weapons.

#3 Seed: Team Oscar (@oscar_hoops)

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams 

With my first pick being relatively late at #5 in the East pool, I didn’t head into the draft with a set roster construction philosophy in mind. Instead, I decided to see how the board fell and build around whichever centerpiece fell into my lap accordingly. While there were unfortunately no true superstar offensive options available when I got to the virtual podium, I was able to shift gears and assemble a gauntlet of defensive talent stacked to the brim with length, strength, and versatility. Rather than settling for a 2nd-tier primary creator with my top pick and trying to build a conventional offensive dynamo, I prioritized players who can offer major resistance in gaps and as point of attack defenders, while also nabbing enough tough shotmakers and individual offensive talents to make things work on the other end. From a championship upside perspective, the track record for teams without an MVP-caliber offensive fulcrum (although Butler was pretty damn close this year!) is admittedly poor, but I’m willing to bet that we can be an outlier with our combination of suffocating scheme-versatile defense and litany of talented scorers surrounded with good spacers.

If there’s one thing I’ll promise about this roster, it’s that we’ll have a counter for any flavor of creator we run up against. We have several elite point-of-attack options to throw at the two most common archetypes of high-usage offensive stars: small guard PnR maestros (Jevon Carter, Butler, and even Jaylen Brown), and bigger wing creators (Butler, Brown, and Grant Williams). To generate a favorable 1-on-1 matchup against our starters, opposing teams will have to run lineups with 5 players who are all threats with the ball in their hands, something most rosters are simply not capable of. And when we roll out our death lineup, swapping out Maxey for Jevon Carter, we’ll effectively have 5 fringe All-Defensive caliber players on the floor at once, while still maintaining good spacing around our 2 dynamic creators in Butler and Brown. Our elite length and range on the wing will allow us to be selectively aggressive sending gap help, as we won’t have to overcommit to slowing down drivers with the knowledge that we have an elite rim protector in Robinson waiting for them. We also have options in terms of pick-and-roll defending bigs: Robinson is our traditional drop big who also has hedge-and-recover flexibility, while Williams can moonlight as a small-ball switch 5 depending on matchup. Our defense is long, athletic, uber-versatile, and has few weak links, making it adaptable to any matchup and an ideal fit for playoff ball.

On the offensive end, we’ll adopt a ball-sharing philosophy to maximize our depth and hunt positive matchups. Much like how our defense offers few exploitable matchups, our plethora of solid-or-better scorers (Butler, Brown, Harris, Maxey) will prohibit opposing teams from hiding a weak perimeter defender on a non-threat. If they have a liability on D, we’ll be able to exploit it! 

Although we don’t have a traditional point guard on roster, Butler will serve as the de-facto primary ballhandler, as he provides both the most rim pressure and self-creation ability on the roster. His steady diet of pullup-2s, layups, and free throws will be the staple foods of our offense. Jaylen Brown will still be a key cog on that end, serving as a 1B option with the starters, and he’ll also be staggered to get minutes with the bench unit. We’ll mask his shaky ball control by getting him the ball in motion, primarily through pistol sets, and allowing him to win with touch and natural athletic gifts. Tyrese Maxey will be the nominal starting point guard, but will function as a lethal off-ball scorer playing off of our two star wings. Although he won’t be starting at the 4, Tobias Harris will still get significant minutes as a 6th man, filling in as a combo forward who can assimilate to any lineup we put him in. Finally, Mitchell Robinson will offer us an elite interior finisher and offensive rebounder who can command vertical attention as a roller, which will in turn allow Butler/Brown to cook in the short midrange. Although somewhat unconventional, our offense features 2 star creators surrounded by a cast of complementary players shooting 38%, 39%, 39% and 43% from 3 this season, respectively (excluding Mitchell Robinson). Having an elite pullup shooter to soak up late clock attempts in the playoffs is priceless; we have two of them, with plenty of kickout options available and elite play finishers on both levels in Maxey and Robinson. Although this is a defense-first team, we have the offensive firepower to score with anyone and always take advantage of the opponent’s weakest link.

#4 Seed: Team Larro (@_larrohoops)

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love 

When I joined this fun exercise I set out to find an elite offense generator, rim protector, strong second scoring option that can also play make for others, and fill out the rest of the roster with role players that can stretch the floor and add some Variety to our offense.

Offensively this team will be coached into playing more random style offense with few set plays. I think that when you have players with the ability of Donovan Mitchell you allow them to apply pressure to the game and let them control the flow and pace. We will run double drags/single drag with Jarrett Allen as the screener for rim pressure and vertical spacing, at times it can be inverted with Jae depending on the type of defender who is guarding him. Pistol action with DMitch and Jarrett/Kevin Love. Being able to have Khris Middleton on the opposite side of the floor is a beautiful site when DMitch is your primary ballhandler because you can bet that he will have a lot more ability to attack tilted defenses and create for others off of it. Marcus Smart will stretch the floor, screen, and cut to keep things on the random side. Jae Crowder will also be in that floor spacing role mixed with some cutting. Grayson Allen and Kevin Love come off the bench and bring more shooting and versatility. Grayson can shoot off of DHO stuff, C+S, and movement just a bit. Kevin Love provides the ability to run some delay type actions with his passing ability. 

Defensively, I believe that I have one of the top Pick-and-roll defensive duos in the draft with Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. Jarrett has a cool ability to switch when needed, he also does a really good job of moving his feet and hips and being able to stay attached even when he is beat because of his length. Marcus Smart is our quarterback on this end of the floor. He can call out actions before they even begin and communicate with his teammates to make their job a bit easier. We already know about his point-of-attack defense. He’s a hound on the ball and off. As for everyone else, Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder both can switch screen actions to keep the ball in front of them. We will be prodominently a no-middle team on side ball screens, and middle ball screens we will switch it up. With Jarrett Allen in the fold we can show at the level because I can trust that Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder will have Jarrett’s back on those backside rotations. Kevin Love when out there will be a show at the level and will stay out of drop. 

All in all, I think I’ve built a team who can compete and shoot well enough to allow Donovan Mitchell and Khris Middleton to stay on the attack and create offense. 

#5 Seed: Team Josh A. (@joshaber_sports)

The pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

When I filled out my roster, I made sure to build my team to fit the strengths of my team’s superstar Joel Embiid. As a result, I made sure to surround him with pick and roll creators, elite and switchable point of attack defenders, and backline rim protection for when Embiid ends up being my primary pick and roll defensive big. 

I believe that Darius Garland would be a strong pairing with Joel Embiid, as his overall outside shooting and pick and roll play gives Embiid plenty of space for his beloved mid-post plays. I envision Garland relocating during these plays or receiving off ball screens to get open shots, which would in result distract defenders and prevent Embiid from getting helped on too much. Derrick White will be my primary point of attack defender, and on offense he will provide the team with great outside shooting, cutting, and connective passing. I believe that his skillset meshes very well with Darius Garland, who may struggle on the defensive end against tougher assignments.

As for my forwards, Dorian Finney-Smith provides the team with lots of length and physicality on the defensive end. He can serve as the team’s wingstopper, allowing White to cover the other team’s best guards and Robert Williams to be in his roamer role. I decided to go double big to support Embiid on both ends due to his weak side rim protection capabilities on defense and his ability to lurk around the dunkers spot on offense. I also think that Williams has some clear utility as an off ball screener when Embiid is operating in a face-up, as teams will have to fight to get around his screens to contest shots from our shooters.

As for my two rotational players off the bench, Caleb Martin provides the team with shooting, closeout attacks, connective passing, and physical on ball defense. Martin struggled at times when playing in a primary forward role with Miami this season, but when he was on the wings more he was able to showcase his offensive skill set more often. I decided to pair Jalen McDaniels with Caleb Martin as my other contributor off the bench, as I think he serves as a good compliment to Martin on the defensive end. Martin is very solid and physical while McDaniels brings lots of length and swift ground coverage on the defensive end.

When matching up with Larro’s team, we will be putting Embiid in a mid-drop system where he may at times play up at the level to deter pull-up threes from Donovan Mitchell. However, we may be able to get away with the drop system due to Derrick White’s excellent screen navigation. On offense, we will be running lots of Embiid pinch post plays, as he can create his own offense with ease. We will also implement some post split plays for Darius Garland to get some open threes or potential drives, which maximizes the offensive skill sets of our two stars.

#6 Seed: Team Josh U. (@2REDJUrl)

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

NBA playoff success requires top quality offense AND defense. Of the 8 conference finals teams over the last two NBA playoffs 6 were in the top 10 in ORTG and 7 were top 10 in DRTG. I wanted to build a group who could do the same.

On offense all 8 conference finals teams had at least 1 player who averaged over 11 drives per game and 6 of the 8 had two such players! To drive our offense I drafted 3 players who average over 11 drives per game in Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tyler Herro. Our spacing is excellent with 6 players who shoot above average from deep on over 6 attempts per 100 possessions. And we also have an elite finisher and lob threat in Nicolas Claxton who leads the league in fg%. 

Defensively all 8 of those teams were in the top half of the league in opponent eFG%. I built my team with an elite rim protector in Claxton, two quality POA defenders in Quentin Grimes and Royce O’Neale, and size across the rotation to switch. My opponents will have to work hard for good looks against us. We have the pieces to be a contender.

#7 Seed: Team Will (@w_a_morris)

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline.

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

The lottery gods blessed me with the first pick in the East and I ended up rolling with NBA Champion and 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has proven capable of being the go-to-guy on a championship team, so selecting him was a no-brainer. I tried to replicate Milwaukee’s frontcourt rotation, later taking Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. The Lopez-Giannis duo has been deadly once again this year, with Milwaukee recording a 9.2 Net-Rating with those two on the floor. Teams are shooting just 60.0% within 6-feet of the basket against Milwaukee this season. Preventing easy buckets at the rim is a recipe for winning basketball. 

Giannis is obviously going to draw plenty of defensive attention, so with the rest of my picks I looked for players who could punish defenses off his scoring gravity, both by knocking down open shots and attacking closeouts. Jalen Brunson has established himself as a true superstar this year, winning as a creator with his exceptional footwork, handle, and touch. Dinwiddie too provides some excellent secondary/tertiary creation chops. Both guards also have plenty of experience operating away from the ball. Josh Hart has given the Knicks a huge spark as a slasher and spot-up shooter, shooting 74.2% at the rim and 56.8% from three. Sam Hauser is one of the best shooters in the world at 6’8”, and while he’s probably going to have to log more minutes at the 3 than he has in Boston, his ability to bomb away off of movement bolsters our bench offense. 

The obvious concern with this roster is our perimeter defense. Hart is tenacious on-the-ball, but at 6’4” he may struggle to check some of the more difficult wing assignments in the NBA playoffs. Dinwiddie and Brunson will have to really lock in at the point-of-attack versus lead ball-handlers. Fortunately, having Giannis and Brook on the backline lurking gives us some leeway.

The Teams: Western Conference

#1 Seed: Team Sajdak (@davidsajdak8)

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent.

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

Picking last in the west meant that the true 1A primary option type of guys were already off the board before I got a chance to select. So, I decided to really focus (as best I could) on lineup versatility and flexibility rather than building my team around 1 talent. Playoff basketball can get really funky so giving my coaching staff (or me I guess) as much wiggle room as possible to make in-game adjustments or get weird with things was a goal of mine.

My primary lineup of choice offers plenty of shooting and playmaking, with one of the best isolation players in Kyrie Irving able to go get me one when the game calls for it. With the way Kyrie likes to play off his bigs, I was really excited to pair him with one of the league’s premier big-man playmakers and play-finishers in Karl-Anthony Towns. Add Kyle Anderson to the mix and you have a lineup with 3 players that you can trust to make good decisions off the dribble and maintain or capitalize on advantages that have been created for them. With Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. rounding out the lineup, I have two guys that are both more than capable shooters (especially Hardaway, whose an elite one) and can make plays off the dribble attacking closeouts. Off the bench, Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the league, offering a steady hand when Irving has to check out the game. Finally, Konchar gives me another +decision-making wing that’s capable of making open shots.

On defense, I got a perennial DPOY candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. who I targeted early on in the draft. Jackson is somebody I see as the perfect fit next to KAT defensively, allowing him to stay away from the perimeter and cleaning up his mistakes with his elite weakside rim protection. My starting lineup is lacking in size at the guard positions, but this is where flexibility/versatility I was talking about earlier can really start to pay off with Konchar able to play the 2 over THJ if extra defense or size is needed. I also have the ability to play JJJ as my 5 and slide Kyle Anderson to the 4 in end of game situations or whenever needed.

#2 Seed: Team Neema (@findingneema23)

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

Our best ability is our ability to run. The team boasts two of the most athletic backcourt players in the NBA. Ja Morant is one of the best point guards in the league, and Edwards is a microwave offensively while also being a nightly threat. The pairing is backed up by Gary Payton II, who provides a lockdown defender to fill the gaps if defense is needed, as Edwards and Morant are both capable, but inconsistent defenders. At the wings we have length and shooting in Andrew Wiggins and Michael Porter Jr, the two juxtaposing one another in role. Wiggins provides game-changing defense along the wings  and Porter is one of the most efficient wings in the league. At the big, while there isn’t a ton of size, we are able to be versatile in our coverages in style of play. Kevon Looney and Brandon Clarke may not be the tallest bigs, but both provide strategic versatility and are great hustle bigs.

Our philosophy is to play with extreme pace. Having versatility across our lineup, this team can find a way to match up with any team in the conference. We can go big with Clarke and Looney together, or go small playing Wiggins or GP2 at the big position. Versatility, size and athleticism are extremely important, and the team still has the pieces to space the floor effectively. Our combination of size, speed and strength, while also having good shooting on the wings and defensive specialists, can help us lockup the more offensive focused teams, and outrun and outgun the teams that just can’t keep up.

#3 Seed: Team AJ (@NBA_Jeremy1)

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

The selling point for this team is versatility and athleticism. We’ll be really comfortable playing multiple styles offensively, typically at a fast speed with De’Aaron Fox running the point alongside a few other plus athletes. When we need to slow it down or score at the end of the games that shouldn’t be an issue either, as Devin Booker and Fox give us high level creation in the half court along with DeAndre Ayton’s presence as a play finisher. The biggest issue on offense is likely our lack of high end 3pt shooting, but everyone on the team is at least capable of making an open jumper so spacing shouldn’t be much of an issue in spite of that.

The versatility of our team translates to the defensive end as well. We have reliable options to defend at the POA (Jaden McDaniels, Bruce Brown), protect the rim (Ayton, McDaniels, Maxi Kleber), and defend wings (McDaniels, Reggie Bullock). Kleber off the bench gives us the option to play a 2nd big with Ayton, or as the 5 in smaller lineups depending on the matchup. We also don’t have many glaring weaknesses to attack or hunt on defense, as Fox is really the only questionable defender in the rotation and even he can provide resistance when locked in.

Overall our flexibility on both ends give us a lot of different looks we can throw at teams. We can get out in transition and put up points quickly with our athletes and ball handlers, but there’s also plenty of positional size and defense we can lean on as well. We can play whatever style is needed for a given matchup, and at the end of games we have two of the league’s best half court shot makers in Booker and Fox to take us home. 

#4 Seed: Team Tyler (@ProspectingNBA)

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

“It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! “ – Rocky Balboa

Championships are made through excellence and resilience. Playoff basketball is like a 12-round fight, trapped within a cage of ropes where survival is born through careful analysis and tactical precision. Weaknesses are hunted and edges are unraveled, bit by bit. In drafting this team I set out to build a roster defensively versatile with playoff-durable offense. Offensively, rather than emphasize spacing for the sake of three point attempts, the goal was to find skilled players with a multifaceted offensive game. 

Chis Paul is the greatest floor general of the modern era and will operate as a cooler counterpart to Jamal Murray’s shotmaking inferno. With Donte DiVincenzo and Dillon Brooks coming off the bench this backcourt is ready-made for any defensive matchup you throw at them with the skill, spacing and shotmaking needed to carry an effective offense.

In the frontcourt Steven Adams will pair as an excellent screen and roll big with Chris Paul, and while he may not have much of a scoring load, his screen setting, rebounding and rim protection will provide a baseline competence on that end. He’s an incredibly strong big who, at the very least, can stand the physical test of guarding the star big men of the league. 

Aaron Gordon is an incredibly versatile defensive piece to guard 3-5 and with the strength and vertical pop to sop up backup center minutes for this roster. Gordon is an effective offensive player when his role is properly limited and the surrounding offensive talent on this roster allows for that context. 

Finally, we get to Kevin Durant, the man himself. There is no greater tough shot-maker in the world, and no skill more important in playoff basketball. Our foundation of defensive toughness and versatility will make this team an incredibly tough out even when shots aren’t falling. Games are going to come down to the wire and when someone is shooting to win or go home, I’m taking Kevin Durant every time.

#5 Seed: Team Avinash (@100guaranteed)

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

This is certainly an unorthodox combination of talents, but the convergence of size and shooting could unlock another level of dominance. With premier shooting talents, strong slashers, and arguably 2 of the top 5 centers of the decade, there’s inherent versatility beyond what I can summarize here. The crux of the offense revolves around high-low action between two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Gobert has had a disappointing season, but much of that can be attributed to a suboptimal context- he hasn’t been able to attack the rim at requisite levels by virtue of Finch’s more free-flowing offense. He should thrive on a team with above-average playmakers at every position, most notably Jokic. 

Operating at the high post or top of the key while Gobert stays near the basket, Jokic can create open looks for Gobert down low, kick to one of the virtuoso shooters on the perimeter, or find one of the strong wing slashers for a quick 45 cut. I decided to ultimately draft Gobert not because of his defensive prowess, but simply because I cannot fathom a reality where a team can effectively shut down any sort of Jokic-Gobert joint action, especially considering the accompanying shooters/slashers at hand. Guarding two seven footers is inherently difficult, but Jokic’s guard-like skillset makes this proposition even more wildly difficult.

The slashing/shooting on this team should be considered as well. Conley, Bane, and Poole are all relatively versatile shooters with effective pull-up jumpers, but they are also dynamic handlers in space. With strong finishing packages and elusive handles, each of these players are solid self creators who can thrive playing off one another and alongside two roll threats. The sheer slashing competencies of this lineup, especially with C&S maestros/strong wings Okogie and Josh Green, should enable even more versatility to complement the two seven footers.

Defensively, let’s not overthink this. Bane and Conley are both strong, well-above average defenders, while Okogie and Green have garnered reputations as bendy (in regards to screen nav), lockdown wings. Jokic’s strength can enable him to cover 4s decently well, and we all know what Gobert is capable of. This is a fascinatingly strong defensive lineup, but in the interest of word count, I think the transcendent, unprecedented nature of the offense needs to be emphasized. If you’re a bit wary of these players, I’ll end with this: I cannot remember a single 5 man lineup with as many possible PnR permutations. The shooting/slashing/playmaking/size combination of skills is truly unprecedented; teams with inadequate size or versatile-coverage personnel will indubitably get cooked.

#6 Seed: Team Corban aka Monta’s Inferno (@corbannba)

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kaminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kaminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

For playoff basketball, among many keys for success, two ring paramount: quality defense and crunchtime scoring. With Monta’s Inferno, both boxes are checked off. On the offensive side, we have the second leading scorer in the league as well as the one ranked sixth in assists (Luka). In addition to that, we have one of the greatest three point shooters of all time, a terror coming off pin down actions (Klay) AND a player who, among being an efficient scorer, has made the most threes as a rookie in NBA history (Keegan). Off the pine we have a proven, microwave scorer across both guard spots (Monk) and a big man who can get baskets in a hurry and is equally adept taking the ball to the hole or shooting from outside (Wood). Even the players who don’t specialize in scoring specifically bring other attributes to the table that will elevate the overall offense, from rebounding to additional playmaking (Green/Kaminga)

On  defense, Green is the lynchpin at the 5 with his communication and ability to anchor the backline, and he is surrounded by positional length at the other four positions. Every player but Luka is at least competent on that end of the floor, and with stronger players surrounding him, Luka would be assigned the least threatening wing player to match up with. With Kaminga’s ability to swallow up smaller players defensively, he would be the assigned player on guards, where he can use his length and strength to mitigate their effectiveness. Sheer size may be a slight weakness for Monta’s Inferno but the physicality, length, and positional flexibility 1-4 is something my team possesses in spades, and I feel that our squad is at the very least serviceable on that end of the floor. 

Monta’s Inferno takes after its namesake and is two things for certain: a bucket, and a problem. There will be precious few chances to rest on defense against our squad; we are guaranteed to make you work. Defensively my opponents may score *some* but it won’t be easy, and it will ultimately be a losing effort. In this thought exercise Monta’s Inferno has a top 10 offensive and a top 15 defense, and those ingredients will be just enough to produce a winning recipe.

#7 Seed: Team Charlie (@klaytheist11)

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

The pitch for this team is ultimate spacing/small-ball motion offense with a center who can take maximum advantage of a clear lane and open post while finding cutters and shooters. Steph-Sabonis PNR could create 5-out offensive looks, with three positive floor spacers off the ball. Secondary creation somewhat lacking, but all three of Huerter/KCP/Barnes can be handoff guys with Sabonis through motion looks.

Payne provides a capable replacement ballhandler, one who can shoot enough and manage PNRs with both Sabonis and Reid. The defense is lacking on the whole, but Sabonis can play at the level and in drop to maximize his skill with his hands. Reid can do much of the same, and Barnes provides a big body deterrent off the weakside if the big is at the level of the screen.

This team may not have a ton of defense, but we can space and pace with the best of them.

The post Swish Theory Roundtable: Playoff Remix appeared first on Swish Theory.