Small edges drive on-court play as well. A defense will tag a roller because that corner three shooter can’t make them pay the way the pick-and-roll can. An offense will hunt a switch to find a slightly worse defender for their best player to attack. A coach goes bigger to create rebounds, while another goes smaller to shoot more and run in transition. On and on the dance goes all game long, until the edges one team creates outdo the other.

But these are all defined by small edges. When a significant edge is discovered, it blows the game wide open. The Moreyball-era Houston Rockets are the best example of this. They eschewed the midrange game to maximize threes and layups; at their peak, in 2017-18, Houston took 47% of their shots from deep and 35% at the rim. Their midrange frequency was dead last in the league. In fact, from 2012 to 2022, Houston was dead last in midrange frequency in every single season. With James Harden at the helm, they finished with a top-10 offense every season. That revolution broke the game open.

The average NBA team in 2024-25 took 39% of their shots from deep and 31% at the rim. If you go back to the first year of the Harden/Morey pairing in 2012-13, the average was 22% from three and 36% at the rim. The midrange has cratered from the most frequent shot (42%) to the least frequent (30%) in just over ten years. That was the product of the three-point gold rush.

Now, every team is on the hunt for shooting. Guards, wings, and even some bigs that can’t hit shots beyond the arc are losing value by the minute. Everyone saw the light, and the big edge generated by the “dunks and threes” philosophy has become a small edge. Thus, the search for the newest big edge begins. And I’m here to tell you now, steals are the next big edge that will create a gold rush in the NBA. Let me explain.

The Hypothesis

For these purposes, we’ll be focusing on the playoffs. The end goal of all teams is to lift that Larry come June. So, unless stated otherwise, I’ll be using playoff stats to explain the value of the steal.

Per Cleaning the Glass (like all my stats!), the average transition possession in the 2024/25 playoffs is worth 1.14 points. Conversely, the average halfcourt possession is worth 0.96 points. Going even deeper, the average transition possession coming from a steal is worth 1.36 points. These numbers will form the basis of my thinking.

Pushing a normal half-court possession into transition qualifies as a small edge. Take the Indiana Pacers, the best pushers of live rebounds in these playoffs. Indiana scores 1.05 points per half-court possession, which is the best mark of all playoff teams. They score 1.35 points per transition chance off a live rebound, also the best mark in these playoffs. So, roughly, any live rebound they push in a hurry is worth 0.3 extra points per possession. That’s a strong edge when you add up their average mark of 32.7 defensive rebounds per game.

But Indiana didn’t add the most points per 100 possessions through transition play of these playoffs. They finished behind two other teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. LA lost a tight first-round series to the powers of Nikola Jokic, so I can’t fault their process. Oklahoma City’s transition prowess has defined them all year and continued into the postseason. In addition to the second-most points added via the average transition possession, they have the second highest transition frequency behind only the Detroit Pistons (who have a third of the sample size).

This is where the steals come into play. OKC led the league in steals per game in the regular season, and has generated the highest turnover rate in this postseason. The formula that fueled them all year has put them three games from a championship: we are going to take the ball from you, and we are going to score.

Let’s do some rough math here—the Thunder average 10.6 steals per game in these playoffs and score 1.43 points per transition possession off a steal. For argument’s sake, let’s say two of those 11 steals don’t turn into transition, because I don’t have the money for the fancy sites that could tell me this. So, nine transition possessions per game at 1.43 PPP equals 12.87 points. Their Finals opponents, the Indiana Pacers, generate 7.5 steals per game at 1.38 PPP. Being generous and saying six of those turn into transition, that’s 8.28 points. Oklahoma City is developing 4.59 extra points per game in transition with their steal rates compared to Indiana.

And that’s not where the math stops. Remember that the average halfcourt offensive possession has been worth 0.96 points. Unlike a blocked shot, a steal is a guaranteed zero. Possession ends. Finito. So, if you’re the Thunder, a steal that takes away 0.96 points and adds 1.21 on average (12.87 transition points added divided by 10.6 steals). That’s 2.17 net points per steal leading to transition.

Alright, that was a lot of math. Take a breather. We have a bit more to get through.

A 2.17-point swing on a given possession is a MASSIVE edge by NBA standards. Let’s consider the small edges that teams look for again. The average NBA player shot 35.8% from three this postseason. So, the average three was worth 1.074 points. If shooting was your problem, you looked for upgrades. Let’s say a GM moves a player taking four threes per game at league average rates for a player hitting 38% of four threes per game. That’s an extra 0.066 points per shot, and 0.264 per game. Stretched over 82 games, that’s 21.65 total points in a season. Those are the margins we’re operating on here.

Now, I am throwing context out. That extra shooting edge may open up more plays, change defensive coverages against your primary options, and improve your points per possession in ways that are harder to quantify. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. If a steal can be worth two points, finding a player that averages 1.5 steals to 1.0 can add an extra point each game. The additive nature of each steal is far above any edge you can reasonably create.

Put it like this. Steph Curry took ten threes per game in these playoffs, making 40%. That’s 12 points per game for the greatest shooter in NBA history. If a league average playoff shooter took that volume, it adds up to 10.74 points. Gravity aside, Steph was worth 1.26 more points per game than your typical shooter. That’s worth less than the average steal. And there’s only one Steph Curry, and only one team has that edge. Plenty of teams can find a way to generate an extra steal.

The Application

Maybe you’re thinking this is junk math. I’m not Daryl Morey. I don’t know how to build complex data models to flesh out the values of each individual play. I’m a guy with a laptop and a premium stats subscription who watches a concerning amount of basketball. You can nitpick the math, but the critical assumptions remain: on average, the steal is now the most valuable play in basketball. Now the question becomes, how does this manifest?

Teams may try to find the next Dyson Daniels (a player I have written about time after time). The third-year Aussie went from bench piece on a middling Pelicans team to First Team All-Defense by wrangling three steals per game with the Hawks. That’s an astronomical number of steals, one unlikely to be repeated.

But let’s look at something more attainable: Alex Caruso, acquired for pennies on the dollar, is keying this Thunder defense. His 1.7 steals per game are worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City this postseason.

There are other ways to get in on the gold rush. Point guards like Tyrese Haliburton, typically admonished for being “conservative passers,” may increase in value. He who prevents transition chances is as good as the man who creates them, in a sense. Teams may hunt for stellar transition defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Nembhard, Derrick White, and Derrick Jones Jr. It’s no coincidence that some of the best transition players in the league are/were part of teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent memory.

You don’t need me to find evidence of the rising value of the steal. I constantly come back to the Thunder—in addition to their lead in forced turnovers this postseason, their offense has the second-best turnover rate. If Indiana were to beat them in these Finals, I’d bet on that win being fueled by transition and a shift in the turnover deficit. Just look at Game 3 last night. Indiana won the steal battle 13-6, scoring 1.25 points per transition chance off a steal. That right there swung the 116-107 victory.

The last great NBA dynasty was put over the top by three-point shooting. The next champion will be fueled by the steal.

The post Steals: The NBA’s Next Gold Rush appeared first on Swish Theory.

Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.