The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Therefore, the first team on the season previews will be the team also holding the number one overall pick in the 2023 draft: the Indiana Fever.

2022 Recap

Despite the record and their place in the standings, 2022 was a notable step forward for the franchise everyone loves to forget. Sure, they only won five games. Somehow, that was one less than in each of their previous two seasons. Even still, there is plenty to be positive about.

Kelsey Mitchell reminded the league that she is a force to be reckoned with. She was sixth in the league in scoring last year and would likely have pushed even harder if not for the focus on the rookies. She dropped 20 or more points in 17 of her 31 games. Surrounded by a cast not fully ready to support that into a playoff berth, Mitchell’s season went mostly unrecognized. 

Her still not making an All-Star appearance in her career is befuddling and should change soon. As the roster continues to develop, Mitchell will be the veteran guiding the youth. 

There was also a notable change in leadership this season. Lin Dunn, in the role of interim General Manager, moved on from Marianne Stanley. Stanley had been the head coach since 2020 and it was abundantly clear a change in voice was needed. 

This team may not have won much during the season, but the change in the guard was notable. With a promising young core and new leader, one thing was clear.

There is a direction now. 

The Rookies

The obvious place to start is NaLyssa Smith. After being drafted second overall, Smith had plenty to live up to. She destroyed all expectations. 

Behind only Rhyne Howard in rookie scoring (13.5 points per game), Smith was also top among rookies in rebounds (7.9). There were only nine other players in the league to average 13 points and seven rebounds, and eight of them were All-Stars: Sylvia Fowles, A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Candace Parker, Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, Natasha Howard, and Sabrina Ionescu. The ninth, Tina Charles, was nearly voted in as well despite changing teams midseason. If the Fever had more wins, Smith (as well as Kelsey Mitchell) would have had a real case for a place on the team. 

She was not the only rookie that stood out, however. Queen Egbo was the perfect partner in the frontcourt for her former Baylor teammate. She tied for fifth in the league in blocks with the likes of Jonquel Jones and Sylvia Fowles. She grabbed more than 10 rebounds four times while sharing the court with another elite rebounder. 

Emily Engstler, another rookie, also crashed the glass and tortured offensive players. She is going to be a problem for whoever she is tasked with guarding. It should not be a surprise if Engstler is threatening to crack an All-Defensive team as soon as this season. She is that much of a problem and takes pride in doing the dirty work for her teammates. 

Destanni Henderson and Lexie Hull had moments too. This shows just how deep this rookie class was for the Fever. They needed to set the foundation for their next competitive team. With two All-Rookie level players and three other solid contributors, they did just that. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Danielle Robinson, Tiffany Mitchell 

In: Erica Wheeler, Maya Caldwell

2023 Draft: #1, #7, #13, #17, #25

Re-Signed: Victoria Vivians

The roster-building on the fringes was the next step for Indiana. Danielle Robinson was a solid veteran for the team for the last two seasons. Tiffany Mitchell saw her role noticeably diminish last season with the influx of younger talent, so a change of scenery made sense. 

In come Erica Wheeler and Maya Caldwell.  After being originally drafted by the team 33rd overall in 2021, Caldwell is hoping to finally make the roster. She was cut in training camp in 2021 then played nine games for the Atlanta Dream last season. Over the small sample, Caldwell shot the lights out and hopes to bring the same kind of spacing to her new squad. 

Wheeler has been here before, having played four seasons in Indiana from 2016 to 2019. She made her only career All-Star appearance in that final season with the team. Now, Wheeler returns as more of a stabilizer than a star. Playing solid defense on the perimeter or at the point of attack while also providing a scoring bonus would fit well within this team.

Finally, bringing back Victoria Vivians was a solid choice. Last year saw Vivians in the starting lineup for the majority of the season and posted career highs in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals. Bringing her off the bench this season may be more likely given the growth of the young core, but Vivians is more than capable of filling that role. 

The most important moves, however, came with the winning of the draft lottery and signing Christie Sides to be their newest head coach. Sides was an assistant for the franchise from 2017 to 2019 and was an assistant in Atlanta last season. Working as an assistant in college, the WNBA, and overseas for the last 20 years, this will be her first chance as a head voice. 

However, the upcoming draft is the most important moment for the franchise in a long time. 

Prediction

Last season, the Fever were able to redefine their franchise with a core group of young players. All signs point to them bringing on South Carolina Gamecocks star Aliyah Boston as the new face of the franchise. Imagining the pairing of Boston and Smith will be a nightmare on both sides of the court. Rim protection, rebounding, and scoring will be plentiful. 

We have seen the top teams in the league focusing on multiple bigs who can share the floor. Skilled size is the name of the next wave and while Indiana may not be jumping to contender status already this is the blueprint they are building on. 

Personally, I think the Fever are going to surprise some teams this season. I still think they are likely to miss the postseason just because that is so much youth to try to win with immediately. However, doubling their win total should not be a problem. NaLyssa Smith and Kelsey Mitchell will have legitimate All-Star cases this season. Finally, the direction for this franchise is clear.

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