Listed at 6’10”, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Freshman, 18.9 on draft day

Ace Bailey is a dynamo, a blistering midrange scorer where he shot 46% with only 27% of his makes assisted.

Much of the damage was done on midrange pull-ups: he was 40 for 110 there (36%). His very high volume of 3.7 midrange pullup attempts per game places him 32nd in the country as an 18-year-old, exceeding the figures of teammate and presumptive #2 pick Dylan Harper who ranked 235th and shot only 28%. Cooper Flagg also took about half the midrange pullup attempts per game of Ace, and similarly shot a decent bit worse than him there at 33%.

In the first clip above, one of my favorites of the cycle, seen from a better angle, Ace goes from this positioning:

To this tiptoeing the sideline:

Then gathering from his low stance to rise and fire over the help:

I harp on small space coordination for a reason: it is one of the traits I identified as characteristic of all the NBA’s recent greatest improvers (players like Pascal Siakam and Devin Booker). I wrote the following: “On offense, small space coordination not only means being nimble enough to create an initial advantage, but, arguably more important, the ability to dance through traffic. We return to a similar concept as the previous sections – the ability to finish a play.”

Small space coordination leads to improvement because it gets you reps others cannot receive. It opens up creative pathways to score and allows you to pick your spots more accurately. Ace Bailey, with his nimble footwork, will be able to experiment with scoring techniques others could only imagine.

In the midrange one has to not only deal with their immediate defender but some level of help as well. This dual focus makes small space coordination all the more important, squeezing through gaps closing in on two sides. This is not like three point shooting where shooting over a closeout rules supreme.

What else does Ace exhibit in his midrange game? Most notable, fluidity and creativity. Take as another example from the above highlight reel his midrange make against Kennesaw State.

Ace gathers with a pro hop, attacking at an oblique angle to the basket from the wing to the paint:

But instead of rising up out of this gather, he expertly ducks and turns back the direction he came:

This leaves the defender completely in the dust where he now has a fairly uncontested turnaround.

If you put all of the shotmakers of Ace’s ilk in this situation, it is highly unlikely anyone else would have come up with the same solution. For someone broadly considered with worse feel for the game than his peers (as shown by his 0.6 assist to turnover ratio), Ace has plenty of moments of genius in a pinch.

This is to speak nothing of his actual shooting form. That analysis is more subjective, but still worthwhile. Bailey’s strength comes from his ability to keep his form regardless of the angle he’s firing from, working well with his proclivity for quick fadeaways.

Just look at that follow through and holding of pose in spite of his lower body being angled off to his left.

Finally, Ace is great at simply throwing it up there. He was elite with both floaters (14 for 23, 61%) and barely missed any of the few hooks he attempted (7 for 9, 78%). The fact that he is able to guide the ball to the rim from unstructured shooting forms is a great sign for his touch. Check out the final minute of the highlight reel above for some examples, in addition to this impressive make.

Bailey has all the tools as a midrange shotmaker: the height and speedy and high release to get his shot off with ease. The creativity to find unusual finishing patterns. The touch from any kind of angle. Expect him to be shooting through narrow midrange windows his whole career, handle pending.

#2: Tre Johnson

Listed at 6’6”, Texas Longhorns, Freshman, 19.3 on draft day

Tre Johnson is the first 2x superlative winner in this series after being our #1 three point prospect.

His shooting form once again stands out, as does his versatility of set up.

The makes in the above video display finishes in the following manners:

• Drift forward left
• Fade back right
• Quick stop moving right
• Spin fade right
• Drift forward right
• Up and under floater
• Up and under floater
• Quick stop floater

Johnson is particularly adept at drifting just as much as necessary to counterbalance his forward momentum, often slowing just in time as he rises up.

This mixes well with his stutter rip tendency / ability, creating the seam needed to hit with a quick burst, then counterbalanced after a single hard dribble.

Statistically, Tre was a better pull-up three point shooter (at 38%) than pull-up two point shooter (36%) on equally heavy volume at just under 100 attempts each. I attribute much of the worse two point shooting to variance, as the technique is there, but he does force some difficult shots to suppress the efficiency.

With Johnson’s ability to push for difficult attempts, it can be easy to write him off as low feel. Indeed, I do have a concern there (it was especially difficult to see him repeatedly wave for the ball at 0:25 above), especially given his upright driving nature. But, moreso than Bailey, Johnson has so many tools in his repertoire it would be impossible to get here without study and dedication.

I am particularly impressed by Johnson’s ability to pair a midrange fadeaway with an up-and-under floater. You have to leap to contest the 6’6” Johnson’s attempt (he shot 50% in the post), leaving you vulnerable to a fake and pivot forward. His touch does the rest of the work – Johnson shot 23 for 55 on floaters.

While I remain very pessimistic on Johnson’s defensive ability, particularly his poor rebounding, his nuclear scoring ability seems likely to translate in some form. He has too many weapons at his disposal, with balance and technique providing the base. His ability to both quickly organize off of movement and finish with just the right drift can make up for his lack of separation when he hangs onto the ball for longer. The habits may need some refining, and the on-court product might be rough at first, but Johnson remains a compelling lottery bet regardless.

#3: Tahaad Pettiford

Listed at 6’1”, Auburn Tigers, Freshman, 19.9 on draft day

Shooting 43% with Auburn on 40 pull-up twos and, more importantly, 52% on 35 floaters, Pettiford was an easy third option here. Evident in the tape is his consistent ability to not only separate off the dribble, but flow perfectly into his pull-up following these dramatic moves.

The first clip above displays this as well as any. Tahaad pulls off a two-step step-back and knocks it down clean. This reveals not only great balance but precision of footwork.

Just as important, Pettiford has an extra quick release, rising off the ground in an instant. You could call Pettiford’s ability to adapt to his smaller stature a cauterized wound – a consistent physical deficit that you have learned to overcome in a way where it’s no longer harmful. Think of Alperen Sengun becoming a plus defender despite his lack of foot speed, or Pettiford’s high-arching floaters. Cauterizing one’s wound most often requires a high degree of both adaptability and creativity.

Pettiford is comfortable pulling up from both directions, and looks about as adept with right hand floaters as his dominant left. The road is uphill for guards of Pettiford’s size – we are likely to find his 6’1” listing as generous – but his cauterized wound of size is compensated by an elite adaptability of shooting. Pettiford is worse at the rim than he is on floaters, but is likely to be operating much more outside of the paint anyways. There is more space out there for him to grab in a flurry of footwork.

While I generally shy away from small guards who are highly likely to be -1 or worse per 100 possessions on defense, Pettiford is still worth a first round flyer due to his ability to work between the paint and three point line and pass outside in. His assist rate of 23% is unusually high for players at his level of shotmaking, where only 11% of his midrange makes were assisted. Compare that to Ace Bailey at 27%, Tre Johnson at 18% or Tyler Herro at 21%. There’s a chance Pettiford can make the poor defense worth it, especially as a bench sparkplug.

Value Analysis

Midrange scoring is fairly obviously less important than three point shooting, but it is a mistake to either shrug it off as a viable weapon to keep defenses honest or assume a player’s skillset or ability is basically the same as the three. It is very difficult to create plus efficiency offense from midrange, with the highest volume midrange shooters averaging around 0.8 to 1.05 points per shot. But not all shots are created the same, and the midrange can be a fantastic counter for the elite of the elite who can hit the majority of open midrange looks. If you have to be covered in midrange as aggressively as at the rim or from three, it can pinch in or disorganize the defense in a similar manner.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Superlatives: Midrange Scorers appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Utah Jazz – Cooper Flagg, Duke

If you can believe it, I came away from my most recent Duke watch even higher on Cooper Flagg. “There is an easy case to be made for Flagg ending up a consistent top 5 player” is what I wrote in my Flagg scouting report from January, and that may have been an undersell. While he is not perfect – namely his rim efficiency drops against good teams – Flagg’s advancement as an on-ball creator and overall scorer throughout the season only increases his primary odds. He quickened his release in a more stable way, figured out how to hunt short midrange looks and pass succinctly out of those drives. Considering his wiring as a problem-solver with a second-to-none motor, layered on top of an excellent existing skillset at age 18, Flagg may have MVP upside if things click.

Matt Powers

2. Washington Wizards – Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper arrived on Rutgers campus this fall with much fanfare, with the expectations that himself and fellow 5-star recruit Ace Bailey would lead Rutgers to their first tournament appearance since 2022. While the team fell short of these lofty expectations, Harper turned in one of the more impressive floor-raising seasons of any freshman in recent memory. In spite of a flawed supporting cast, Harper was able to lead Rutgers to a top-40 offense while shouldering the lion’s share of playmaking and scoring responsibilities. Harper suffered an illness induced mid-season swoon, but still managed to finish 70% at the rim on substantial volume while avoiding turnovers on these drives. Harper’s turnover economy should also ease any concerns Wizard’s fans may have of Harper’s ability to scale next to other ballhandlers they may acquire in the future. While some consternation related to Harper’s shooting potential is valid, his ability to consistently shoot off the catch, dating back to his high-school days, serves as further evidence Harper can quickly acclimate to a more complimentary role offensively.

Ahmed Jama

3. Charlotte Hornets – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

At 6’8”, Collin-Murray Boyles is a premier defensive prospect who leverages his feel, hand-eye coordination, and strength on both sides of the court. With a 4.7 BLK% and 2.8 STL% for his college career, Murray Boyles’ ground coverage, length, and feel enable him to consistently force possessions to end, something that the Hornets greatly need. It isn’t just the event creation; he’s a fantastic defensive rebounder, where he posted a 21.3 DREB% over his two years at South Carolina.

On offense, Collin-Murray Boyles can act as a face-up scorer, roller, and elite playmaker as a passer, where he often makes layered reads on the short-roll and out of the post. His defensive value gives him a positive intersection of skills that would allow him to boost Charlotte’s transition offense (worst in the league in efficiency and 6th lowest in volume), acting as a passing outlet and downhill scorer off of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds. With large creators that have shooting gravity like Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller, Collin Murray Boyles’ shooting issues would be insulated to a degree, and he would get them better shots through effective screen assists and high-leverage passing. Having a player like Murray-Boyles operate in the short-roll and play out of DHOs would take the Hornets’ offense to another tier, especially since he would have gravity as a scorer both with his face-up game and downhill pressure.

Murray-Boyles is the best player available to me due to his tremendous defensive value, collegiate production for an underclassman, and high degree of feel relative to his age, but it’s his synergistic fit with the Hornets that will draw out the best of his strengths that makes me excited to draft him at this slot.

Roshan Potluri

4. New Orleans Pelicans – VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe is an undeniable athlete with a steep development curve. Edgecombe is a blur in the open floor with a smooth jumper off the catch and a tenacious defensive mindset. His ability to create buckets off the bounce was on full display playing for the Bahamas Men’s International Team this past summer. While that creation equity did not translate directly to the college level, his growth as a ball handler and athletic upside gives plenty of reason for hope. He shouldn’t be asked to do too much too soon in New Orleans with the existing talent on the roster, and his defensive impact and open court ferocity should fit right in.

Tyler Wilson

5. Philadelphia Sixers – Noa Essengue, ULM

At pick 5, Noa Essengue would be a tremendous fit with the Philadelphia 76ers while taking the best prospect available. Essengue dominated the German BBL as a teenager for Ratiopharm Ulm, overwhelming teams on both sides of the floor with his size, length, and ground-coverage, enabling him to post a 61.8 TS%, 13.4 TOTAL REB%, 0.98 A/TO, above 2 BLK%, and 2 STL%. Even as the second youngest prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft, he was able to post a 17.9 PER in a competitive professional league. For the same reasons that he was productive in the BBL, he can provide value on his rookie deal on the 76ers while being an appealing upside bet for the team due to his intersection of measurables, coordination, feel, and touch. On offense, Noa Essengue is a legitimate threat in transition and can provide value as a vertical threat and off-the-catch driver. Even with his sinewy frame, he applies immense physicality downhill, which shows up on the stat sheet in his bonkers 72 FTR. Essengue’s 3-point shot is still a work in progress, but he’s always had touch, and there has been real growth over the years in his mechanics and energy transfer.

Essengue is also a very versatile defender, stifling opponents with his lateral agility and length at the POA, nail, and backline. The combination of production for age, defensive versatility, outlier tools (9’3.25 standing reach at 6’ 10), feel, and touch makes him an intriguing upside bet in the top five.

Roshan Potluri

6. Brooklyn Nets – Ace Bailey, Rutgers

In the midst of a team-building crossroads, Brooklyn goes for an upside star swing on forward Ace Bailey of Rutgers. The 6’10 Bailey has solid physical tools that he displays on both ends, but really pops offensively with his dazzling scoring ability, including a tantalizing pull-up shot-making package, particularly in the midrange, where he has the ability to rise and fire over the top of defenders with seeming ease. In isolation, Ace is, pardon the pun, an “ace” in the department, as he is relatively unbothered by defenders once he gets to his preferred spots, and is already very adept at attempting-and converting-shots that would be deemed extremely difficult by most. He is also a player who can get hot in a hurry, and when he is in a rhythm, is a tough cover for many defenders, nearly regardless of size. Defensively, Bailey competes and makes the most of his length to bother opposing players, and his effort shines through on that end pretty consistently. His defensive awareness off the ball could improve, but for the “offensive finisher” archetype, he is much more of a two-way player. Overall, as a prospect Bailey’s ceiling is very high. There is a lot of room for growth with his handle and passing to fully realize his complete creation potential, and his offensive awareness regarding what constitutes a good shot could use some extensive refining, but as it stands right now, Bailey will be able to make an immediate impact on a young Nets team that is trying to find its way.

Corban Ford

7. Toronto Raptors – Khaman Maluach, Duke

Masai tends to prefer length with developable ball skills in his draft prospects, and Maluach leaves nothing to be desired when it comes to measurables. Standing 7’2” with a 7’5” wingspan and 9’8” standing reach, Khaman can touch the rim without jumping. Maluach has Olympic experience with the South Sudan team, and is coming off a sensational freshman season on a dominant Duke team. Khaman brings a stabilizing presence down low with one of the highest floors in the draft as a rim-roller; no prospect was as efficient of a lob threat rim-finisher as Khaman. Maluach flashes shooting touch on tough shots when given opportunity and brings great defensive intensity, footwork, and hands on both side of the floor. This move could help build the front court of the future alongside Scottie Barnes with another defensive anchor and a rim roller option to toss lobs to in P&R.

Ryan Kaminski

8. San Antonio Spurs – Kon Knueppel, Duke

Kon Knueppel’s jumper is about as fundamentally gorgeous as they come. On a loaded Duke roster Kon thrived hunting his shot off ball, hitting over 40% of his threes on over 10 attempts per 100 possessions. Knueppel is not a bouncy athlete, but is tough as nails with a strong lower half that allows for more positional versatility than at first glance. San Antonio desperately needs shooting to surround the Fox/Wemby pick and roll, and Kon is far and away the best possible fit in this class. Playing off of that gravity should allow for Kon to make an immediate impact and allow for a longer time horizon in the development of his off the bounce creation.

Tyler Wilson

9. Houston Rockets – Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

There’s a strong chance Houston trades this pick in real life, but for the purposes of this mock draft, they’ll be happy to add a creator like Fears with potential to remedy many of their offensive issues. Fears’s unique blend of burst, handling skill and shooting touch makes him a genuine primary handler bet, something the Rockets desperately need. Houston has the defensive infrastructure to help minimize his weaknesses on that end.

Ben Pfeifer

10. Portland Trailblazers – Derik Queen, Maryland

Queen isn’t a perfectly snug fit in Portland, but the Blazers couldn’t pass on the clear best player available left on the board. Elite movement skills, handling and touch help Queen dominate as an advantage creator with the feel and mobility to project more passing and defensive growth. Adding another shaky outside shooter will present some challenges, but Queen’s star ceiling is worth tinkering around.

Ben Pfeifer

11. Dallas Mavericks – Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

After parting with their franchise centerpiece and losing star Kyrie Irving for nearly the entirety of next season, the Dallas Mavericks fill a desperate playmaking need with the selection of Kasparas Jakucionis out of Illinois. The broad-framed, 6’6 guard has great positional size to go along with superb floor-mapping skill, and he makes the most of these tools along with his impeccable footwork to dictate the game at his own pace, stymying defenders while creating opportunities for his teammates. As a scorer, Jakucionis is adept playing out of the pick and roll, getting to the lane and finishing with touch and craft. His frame comes into play here as well, as he is able to seek out contact and still convert, and he generates free throw attempts in bunches. As a shooter, his form is solid and looks sound overall, even if the three point shooting numbers stand to improve overall. Defensively, Jakucionis is proficient, especially with his physical tools, where his quick feet and prodding hands help him hold up on most assignments. He can be prone to blow-bys by quicker players, and the physicality he brings on the offensive end isn’t quite the same on the defensive side, but he is by no means a liability on that end. All in all, Kasparas Jakucionis’ playmaking, shooting upside, and overall potential is a great fit on a Dallas team that needs to balance immediate contributions alongside future promise.

Corban Ford

12. Chicago Bulls – Tre Johnson, Texas

The Chicago Bulls should consider drafting Tre Johnson with the 12th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft due to his elite scoring ability and potential to address their need for a dynamic offensive guard. At 6’6” with a 7’0” wingspan, Johnson, a Texas freshman, led the SEC in scoring with 19.9 points per game, showcasing his three-level scoring prowess, including 39.2% three-point shooting and crafty footwork reminiscent of Devin Booker. His ability to create shots off the dribble, in isolation 81% of his 97-rim attempts were unassisted and he shot 59% on those, and off screens makes him a potential go-to scorer for a Bulls team transitioning to a youth-focused rebuild after trading Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. While his shot selection and defensive consistency need refinement, his size, high basketball IQ, and playmaking flashes (second on Texas in assists) suggest he can develop into a versatile two-way wing. With Nikola Vucevic’s future uncertain and a need for a franchise cornerstone, Johnson’s upside as a high-volume scorer makes him a strong fit at pick 12, especially in a draft with a perceived drop-off after the top four.

Larry Golden

13. Atlanta Hawks – Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

The Atlanta Hawks are in desperate need of an interior presence, not only to shore up their rim-protection, but to provide Trae Young a release valve. The lack of interior size and a viable finisher has restricted Trae’s potency as a scorer and limited Atlanta’s offense. Ryan Kalkbrenner has been one of the most effective and prolific interior scorers in the collegiate ranks over the past few years, finishing just under 70% at the rim on over 1300 career attempts. Kalkbrenner’s offensive value isn’t limited to his presence around the rim, Kalkbrenner’s punishing screens have been the bedrock in many ways for Creighton’s motion-heavy offense. As much of a boon as Kalkbrenner’s offensive capabilities have been, there is perhaps no area where his impact is more acutely felt than the defensive end. Creighton’s personnel outside of Kalkbrenner consists of offensively slanted players, placing immense pressure on Kalkbrenner to not only alter shots around the rim but suppress opponent’s rim attempts entirely. This is an objective Kalkbrenner has carried out year in and year out during his tenure at Creighton. And while Kalkbrenner’s raw block numbers and block rate are particularly eye-popping for a rim-protector, in each of the past 3 seasons Creighton has allowed less shots at the rim on lower efficiency with Kalkbrenner on the court versus off-court. The clear pathways for Kalkbrenner to be a positive player on both ends of the court make him a clear cut top-20 player, with a skillset tailormade to help the Atlanta Hawks immediately.

Ahmed Jama

14. San Antonio Spurs – Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Jase Richardson is a double dip on shotmaking for San Antonio here in the late lottery. A French connection (Penda, Essengue) is intriguing here if available, but with the arrival of Fox, ascendance of Stephon Castle, and the organizational commitment to Jeremy Sochan there is no greater long term need for this team than shooting the basketball. Richardson posted a 55/41/84 shooting split while canning over 40% of his mid range jumpers. He’s a great shooter both on and off the ball, plays tough defense and has intriguing upside as a pick and roll ball handler. Richardson is a skeleton key for the Spurs’ backcourt, fitting seamlessly with just about any lineup construction newly minted head coach Mitch Johnson decides to throw out there.

Tyler Wilson

15. Oklahoma City Thunder – Carter Bryant, Arizona

Carter Bryant displayed an advanced application of tools, volume shooting, and baseline feel as a 19-year-old last season. At 6-foot-8 and 225 lbs with a 7-foot wingspan, he already has an NBA-ready frame and utilized it to produce a 5.8% block rate and 2.8% steal rate, showcasing legitimate point-of-attack utility and secondary rim protection. On the other end, he shot 37% from three on a massive 59 three-point rate, finished 71% of his rim attempts, and dunked 17 times, building out the perfect playfinishing profile. 69.5% on 59 free throws is a slightly worrying shooting indicator, but 88% on 58 free throws over a two-year EYBL sample suggests this is more of a sample size issue. While Bryant’s usage and self-creation rates suffered from scaling down at Arizona, both of those marks were much higher in EYBL, potentially hinting at some latent creation value. On an Oklahoma City Thunder team that emphasizes ball skills, that would be put to the test, but he fits perfectly within their defensive playmaking, rim protection from all positions, and volume shooting.

Maurya Kumpatla

16. Orlando Magic – Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

Ryan Kaminski

17. Minnesota Timberwolves – Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was an easy pick for me here. I have him ranked a fair bit higher. I believe he has some untapped potential on offense, but generally he brings the type of quick decisionmaking that the Wolves need structurally to make their front-court work. He’s a nice connective piece with upside which makes him an easy pick here.

Joe Hulbert

18. Washington Wizards – Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Adou Thiero is a high volume, punishing driver with ridiculous transition scoring dominance, paired with long arms and elite run/jump athleticism. By all accounts, he is the most functional athlete in this draft class. Despite questionable shooting upside, Adou’s reaction time on defense is notable, and he should emerge as one of the league’s best defenders somewhat quickly. His strong applied physicality, defensive event maxxing, and reasonable 12% assist rate/1 A:TO indicate some semblance of latent feel, which is uncommon for wings of Adou’s athletic caliber. Washington zags from its contemporaneous strategy of targeting high-risk teenagers and takes a young junior that will set the tone for the Wizards’ revamped defense.

Avinash Chauhan

19. Brooklyn Nets – Asa Newell, Georgia

For a team currently bereft of high-end talent or foundational prospects, the Brooklyn Nets should prioritize acquiring young, malleable pieces who can accentuate the skillset of whatever star they eventually bring into the fold. Asa Newell brings a swiss army knife skillset to whatever frontcourt he joins. Newell made major strides this past season as a shooter, elevating his free-throw percentage by over 20 percentage points, and showing softer touch around the basket than he had at any point of his high-school tenure with a vaunted Montverde Academy. Newell finished 13th in the country in Offensive Box Plus-Minus, and was second amongst freshmen. Despite his subpar 3-point efficiency and playmaking numbers, Newell’s effectiveness as an interior scorer and offensive rebounder should ease his transition to the NBA and make him one of the more reliable bets in this range of the draft

Ahmed Jama

20. Miami Heat – Kam Jones, Marquette

This pick mostly leans into the type of thing Miami would do, which I don’t want to be seen entirely as a negative. Kam Jones drastically improved his playmaking this year, it was probably the biggest skill increase in the entire class. This increases his upside. I have concerns about the free throw rate, but Jones is the type of guard the Heat have targeted for the last decade, a slasher who knows how to play the game in the half-court.

Joe Hulbert

21. Utah Jazz – Noah Penda, Le Mans

Over the last two seasons, Noah Penda has hovered around 8% OREB, 16% assist, 4% block, and 3% steal, with 1.6 A:TO and 0.4 FTR. The only high major players to even hit career 7o/15a/3b/2.5s/1.5 a:to are Otto Porter Jr. and Draymond Green. Enough said. Penda is a large bodied driver with legit handling ability, and he’s made real strides as a shooter. He projects as a high feel, two-way connector with as good of a shot as any to land on a few All-Defense teams. Despite the usage of connector as a sort of euphemism, this sort of oreb/assist/stock wing with legit high end feel doesn’t come along every draft. This is exactly the sort of low friction, high EV mold that the Jazz should be looking to target in the middle of the first round.

Avinash Chauhan

22. Atlanta Hawks – Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

The Atlanta Hawks get a lottery-caliber big/forward at pick 22 with Thomas Sorber. While Thomas Sorber played more as a center for Georgetown his freshman season, he’s got the processing, touch, coordination, and mobility to scale down as a forward. He has his limitations as a ground-bound player, impacting his rim finishing and causing him to become more creative in finding finishing angles. However, his fundamentals and his ability to carve space with his body are quite advanced for a freshman, which enabled him to finish 65% of his non-dunk rim attempts despite the vertical challenges for his size. He does this by using his body to create highway screens or to seal and get into post position (70% PPP percentile in post-ups). Although he shot a paltry 16.2% on threes, I have confidence he can become a catch-and-shoot threat on his rookie scale deal due to his comfort with jumpers inside the arc, 72.4% from the FT line, and his lack of hesitancy to take open threes. Sorber is also a fantastic defender who can protect the rim to a high degree (opposing team’s rim FG% falls by 14% with Sorber on the floor and 7.6 BLK%) while also being able to switch in space (2.7 STL%).

For these reasons, Sorber is optimized more as a forward. Playing as a forward and his fit with the Hawks as a short-roll passer, positive rebounder, defender, and play finisher gives me optimism that Sorber would be a tremendous match for the Hawks.

Roshan Potluri

23. Indiana Pacers – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

The Pacers can always use more quality wing play and Clifford brings that. He’s improved his offensive skillset over the years, diversifying his attack and adding new skills to his box of tools. He’ll add much needed size and defensive prowess to Indiana’s perimeter defense as well.

Ben Pfeifer

24. Oklahoma City Thunder – Miles Byrd, San Diego State

The Thunder net their second wing of the draft in Miles Byrd, who stands at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan. Byrd was one of the best wing defenders in college basketball last season, applying his length to produce a 4.9% block rate and 4.3% steal rate while grading out as the best defender on a top-20 defense. Alongside his high steal rate, his high feel is evidenced by an 18.5% assist rate and 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, rounding him out as a quintessential “Presti-player”. While his shot hasn’t come around yet (30% 3PT), high volume (12 attempts per 100 possessions and 57 three-point rate), great touch (83% FT), and impressive midrange shotmaking (38% on non-rim 2s) at a true sophomore age promise three-point shooting down the line. The main issue lies in his closeout attacking, where his handle easily clears the threshold but terrible finishing (55%) crushes any potential there and limits his overall offensive ceiling.

Maurya Kumpatla

25. Orlando Magic – Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

Ryan Kaminski

26. Brooklyn Nets – Ben Saraf, ULM

Saraf is a downhill menace at 6’5” who can apply both rim pressure (6.3 rim attempts per 36 minutes) and midrange pressure (3.8 pull-up twos per 36 minutes) while being one of the best distributors in class. Saraf looks like an ideal back up point guard in waiting, with outside shooting concerns holding back his starter likelihood. But productivity across the court – his 4% offensive rebound rate, 2.7% steal rate and 1.3% block rate are all strong for a guard – signal he knows how to play. A proven contributor at only recently turned 19 for the second-place team in the highly competitive German league.

Matt Powers

27. Brooklyn Nets – Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Another up-and-coming bet from the European leagues, Markovic can stretch the floor to complement Saraf’s probing. At 6’11” with a pristine shooting form, Markovic cashed 40% of his catch and shoot three point attempts. That’s bankable at the next level, especially for a Brooklyn Nets team that was in the 97th percentile for catch and shoot frequency. Markovic has questionable ball skills, a good passer but poor decisionmaker at this current stage. But it is encouraging how open he is to trying things: while the creation outcome is unlikely, we cannot rule it out. His primary defensive contribution will be rebounding, at a 22% rate this season, and general effort, hampered by a mere +1 wingspan. The Nets have time to let young players experiment, and Markovic has as interesting of a foundation as anyone left on the board.

Matt Powers

28. Boston Celtics – Nate Bittle, Oregon

Nate Bittle is 7 feet tall with a reported 7’5 WS, he can shoot threes, and he was named to the Big Ten’s All-Defense team. 7 footers who make assists more than turnovers with non-terrible steal rates are rare enough, but I’ll save you the querying: there has never been a single 7-foot prospect who rebounds, blocks, avoids turnovers, and shoots the way Bittle does. The league is built on outliers!

Sure, this phrase is often weaponized as copium for some iteration of a highly unaesthetic, high-friction archetype that hemorrhages points through either 3 or D. But in this case, a 7 footer with these extreme strengths projects to be an incredibly low-friction bet that should be able to contribute regardless of context. It seriously doesn’t take much imagination to project Bittle’s offensive viability, especially on a team like the Celtics who have personnel (two of the league’s best 7 foot+ shooters in Luke Kornet and Kristaps Porzingis) and schematic precedent to maximize Bittle’s goodness.

Avinash Chauhan

29. Phoenix Suns – Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Phoenix desperately needs good basketball players in any form and Darrion Williams fits that description. Williams presents one of the better dribble-pass-shoot bets on the wing in this class, bringing the on-and-off-ball versatility Phoenix would covet. He’s a sturdy defender as well who would likely be one of the Suns’ better players as a rookie.

Ben Pfeifer

30. Los Angeles Clippers – Alex Condon, Florida

The Los Angeles Clippers should consider drafting Alex Condon in the 2025 NBA Draft due to his versatile skillset and fit with their roster needs. At 6’11”, Condon offers the flexibility to play both power forward and center, addressing the team’s lack of frontcourt depth beyond Ivica Zubac. His modern big-man skills— including low-post scoring, developing three-point shooting, and exceptional playmaking with a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio—complement the Clippers’ need for a dynamic, facilitating big who can operate in dribble handoffs and keep the offense flowing alongside stars like James Harden and Norman Powell. Defensively, his lateral quickness and rim protection potential make him a solid fit for switching schemes, while his high basketball IQ and work ethic suggest he can develop into a reliable rotation player. With the Clippers aiming to bolster their frontcourt for a championship push, Condon’s two-way upside makes him a compelling mid-to-late first-round target.

Larry Golden

31. Minnesota Timberwolves – Sion James, Duke

Joe Hulbert

32. Boston Celtics – Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Larry Golden

33. Charlotte Hornets – Javon Small, West Virginia

Ahmed Jama

34. Charlotte Hornets – Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

Ahmed Jama

35. Philadelphia Sixers – Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Tyler Wilson

36. Brooklyn Nets – Johni Broome, Auburn

Matt Powers

37. Detroit Pistons – Isaiah Evans, Duke

Roshan Potluri

38. San Antonio Spurs – Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Maurya Kumpatla

39. Toronto Raptors – Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Ryan Kaminski

40. Washington Wizards – Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Joe Hulbert

41. Golden State Warriors – Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

Tyler Wilson

42. Sacramento Kings – Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Larry Golden

43. Utah Jazz – Drake Powell, North Carolina

Corban Ford

44. Oklahoma City Thunder – Max Shulga, VCU

Roshan Potluri

45. Chicago Bulls – Will Riley, Illinois

Avinash Chauhan

46. Orlando Magic – Vladislav Goldin, Michigan

Ryan Kaminski

47. Milwaukee Bucks – Koby Brea, Kentucky

Larry Golden

48. Memphis Grizzlies – Egor Demin, BYU

Matt Powers

49. Cleveland Cavaliers – Cedric Coward, Washington State

Maurya Kumpatla

50. New York Knicks – Mark Sears, Alabama

Tyler Wilson

51. Los Angeles Clippers – Tyrese Proctor, Duke

Corban Ford

52. Phoenix Suns – Eric Dixon, Villanova

Avinash Chauhan

53. Utah Jazz – Alex Toohey, Sydney

Larry Golden

54. Indiana Pacers – Jamir Watkins, Florida State

Ben Pfeifer

55. Los Angeles Lakers – Joan Beringer, Olimpija

Roshan Potluri

56. Memphis Grizzlies – Karter Knox, Arkansas

Matt Powers

57. Orlando Magic – Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Ryan Kaminski

58. Cleveland Cavaliers – Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest

Corban Ford

59. Houston Rockets – AK Okereke, Cornell

Maurya Kumpatla

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 3.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

For our most recent mock draft, featuring written explanations for each pick, go here.

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

6. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

7. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

8. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Tough shotmaker all over the court

10. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

11. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

12. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three-point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

15. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

16. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

17. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

18. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

19. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

20. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

21. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first-step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

22. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

23. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

24. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

25. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

26. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

27. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three-point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

28. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

29. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

30. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

31. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

32. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

33. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

34. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

35. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

36. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

37. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

38. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

39. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease an offense and get stocks

40. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

41. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

42. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer

43. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

44. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

45. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

46. Dailyn Swain, Xavier

Sparks of dribble-pass-shoot ability for this athletic wing

47. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

48. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

49. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

50. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

51. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

52. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

53. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

54. Zvonimir Ivisic, Arkansas

PNR roll & pop 7’2” big

55. Max Shulga, VCU

Strong combo guard who can run some PNR

56. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

57. Alvaro Folgueiras, Robert Morris

Ultra-versatile big wing hiding in mid majors

58. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

59. Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Tough-nosed defender and transition threat

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

This one is a no-brainer. Flagg is a special prospect, capable of instantly changing the fortunes of any team that selects him. Washington is the fortunate one here, landing their future primary initiator and defensive leader. Flagg helps round out their already promising young core, adding a true superstar prospect to the mix.

– Ben Pfeifer

2. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

As a sophomore, Collin Murray-Boyles has boosted both efficiency (82nd percentile to 83rd percentile) and frequency (65th percentile to 70th percentile) as a post-up hub, possesses a burgeoning perimeter isolation game (88th percentile efficiency on 88th percentile frequency), and is a dominant passer in a variety of situations (career 19.8% AST and 1.2 A:TO). With elite offensive production regardless of usage, team context, and opponent difficulty as a young sophomore, Murray-Boyles has all the ingredients of an offensive star. Pair that potential with incredible defensive production, baseline touch, and outlier development indicators galore, and he has endless avenues to impact even if the offensive stardom doesn’t manifest. For a Charlotte team that ranks 29th in offense and 19th in defense, Murray-Boyles brings an integration of both offense and defense that lags behind only Cooper Flagg.

– Maurya Kumpatla

3. Utah Jazz: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper has established himself as one of the clear-cut top prospects in the 2025 class, combining ideal size for a ball-handler with the ability to generate consistent paint touches via advanced footwork and elite body control. He’s had to handle huge creation responsibility on a Rutgers team devoid of much shooting or ball handling to surround him, and has still managed to be efficient (59% TS%) in spite of that. The biggest question/swing skill with Harper is how well he’ll shoot it at the NBA level, but his percentages (35% 3pt, 74% FT) are respectable enough that you have to imagine that he’ll at least be a decent shooter. Even with Isaiah Collier showing promise as a lead ball-handler in his rookie year, Harper is too good of a prospect to pass up at #3.

– AJ Carter

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Pelicans underwent a pseudo youth movement and Jakucionis will only add to it. They’ve needed more high-end playmaking for Zion Williamson’s entire career, making Jakucionis a perfect fit here. His shooting provides a tantalizing ceiling on the ball and will help him space and cut next to Williamson.

– Ben Pfeifer

5. Toronto Raptors: Khaman Maluach, Duke

Khaman Maluach is a monster. With a true shooting percentage over 70, Maluach is one of the most efficient players in his role in the entire country, despite being introduced to the game of basketball later in life. With fewer years of experience, it is fair to expect some growing pains and there certainly have been some this season at Duke. What has impressed me most throughout the year is not Maluach’s freaky athleticism, true center size, overwhelming offensive rebounding or hyper-efficient scoring, it has been the rate at which he has improved throughout the college season. Playing the five in the NBA will take some refining, it is the most difficult (and important) defensive role on the court, and few players walk into the league ready to do so. With Maluach’s physical tools, potential touch and competitiveness he has all the tools to be a true building block for Toronto. It is hard to imagine a more perfect mentor than Jakob Poeltl as he learns the ropes of NBA defense.

– Tyler Wilson

6. Philadelphia 76ers: Asa Newell, Georgia

Asa checks many boxes for this Sixers team, fitting cleanly at the 4 in the starting lineup and providing a reliable backup 5 option behind Embiid. The strengths of Newell’s game complement this team between his pinpoint offensive rebounding, frontcourt defensive versatility, helpside shot blocking, catch-and-shoot 3pt shooting potential, and the ability to attack closeouts with the shot or pumpfake, drive, and post-up hook. Newell slides right into the starting unit without taking touches from the star scorers and will produce as a positionless defender and off-ball play finisher.

– Ryan Kaminski

7. Brooklyn Nets: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe has managed to alleviate many concerns brought about by his early season play by consistently shooting the ball from distance (39.5% from 3 in conference play), while increasing both his volume and efficiency as a driver. Despite Edgecombe’s becoming more heavily featured within the Baylor offense, his defensive effort and production has seldom waned. This effort and production has come even though Edgecombe has been cast in a variety of roles and schemes as Baylor constantly tinkered to compensate for the lack of size in their rotation. The schematic inconsistencies have managed to provide a glimpse of how Edgecombe could be deployed as a ‘utility guard’, an archetype which has recently come into vogue and has in many ways defined the best defenses in the NBA over the past few years. Combining the versatile defensive ability with an increasingly potent offense has made Edgecombe a no-brainer pick at this juncture of the draft.

– Ahmed Jama

8. Chicago Bulls: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

The 6’3 quick guard can score at all levels, threatening teams with his feathery touch, feel, and footwork. At pick #8, Richardson was the perfect player for the Chicago Bulls to add to their young core and build on their halfcourt creation. Jase Richardson can hold up defensively for a small guard while being an extremely role-malleable offensive player. The bet for the Bulls is that Richardson’s shot-making inside the arc continues to evolve and translate further beyond the arc, enabling him to keep up with a higher usage role in the long term. In the short term, the Chicago Bulls play with a high transition frequency under Coach Billy Donovan which is a perfect fit with how effective Richardson is in the open-court.

– Roshan Potluri

9. San Antonio Spurs: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Ace Bailey would be a strong pick for the San Antonio Spurs due to his exceptional shot-making ability and positional size at 6-foot-10, offering a high-ceiling wing who can create his own offense alongside Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. His scoring versatility and length could complement the Spurs’ growing core, adding a dynamic perimeter threat to elevate their attack.

– Larry Golden

10. San Antonio Spurs: Derik Queen, Maryland

Derik Queen brings a positionally unique form of advantage creation as a post-hub passer with off-the-dribble shooting upside. Still, his offensive versatility is paired with limited defensive versatility: he’s at the horrid intersection of poor lateral quickness, poor vertical explosion, and underwhelming center size. There isn’t a better fit for this type of offensively tilted, defensively limited PF/C than alongside Victor Wembanyama, potentially the most transcendent two-way center in NBA history.

– Avinash Chauhan

11. Portland Trailblazers: Noa Essengue, ULM

The Portland Trailblazers get one of the youngest players and higher upside propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft at pick #11. Noa Essengue fits what Portland is building with its group of rangy defenders and strong interior presence. At 6’10, Essengue is a versatile defensive player who can operate out of the point-of-attack, back-line, or general help situations. Offensively, Essengue has been dominant in transition and applying physicality in the half-court for Ulm in the German BBL this season, and that can immediately translate to the NBA. While the shooting and strength are still a work in progress, Essengue has been improving these traits at a drastic rate enabling him to be someone who can attack off the catch consistently during his rookie-scale deal.

– Roshan Potluri

12. Houston Rockets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

While it was tough to pass up Tre Johnson, I liked the idea of Sorber within this group of exciting young players even more. The idea is somewhat like why they brought Steven Adams in, to provide a physical interior presence, good screening and strong passing. Sorber might eventually shoot it, too, with a smooth form and solid free throw and midrange percentages for a big.

– Matt Powers

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Tre Johnson has had one of the most impressive scoring seasons from a high-major freshman in recent memory. Posting a 6.5 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in conference play, second amongst freshmen and only trailing Cooper Flagg, Johnson has ameliorated many concerns of how quickly his game would translate to the most difficult conference in the country. Despite shouldering a massive 27% usage rate, Johnson has managed to adapt and make significant progress both as a facilitator and driver, consistently elevating his rim-rate over the course of the season without detracting from his efficiency. Johnson’s malleability as an offensive player bodes well to his professional career, as his ability to synergize with more interior based scorers will be crucial considering Johnson’s defensive limitations.

– Ahmed Jama

14. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke

For teams looking for shooting on the wing, Kon is one of the premier shotmakers in this year’s draft. He lacks much explosiveness or burst as an athlete, but has strong positional size and is a skilled scorer from every part of the court. Kon is a knockdown shooter off the catch but has more variety to his shotmaking than just that, showing the ability to make pull-ups off the dribble or use his size to carve out space for short jumpers. It remains to be seen how well he’ll be able to survive on defense at the NBA level, but offensively Kon has one of the most translatable skillsets in the draft.

– AJ Carter

15. Orlando Magic: Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

– Ryan Kaminski

16. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

Noah Penda’s integration of length (6-foot-11 wingspan), strength (225 lbs), instincts, and hand-eye coordination have led him to a league-leading blocks total and 2nd-best steals totals as just a 20-year-old in the French Jeep Elite, giving him an argument for best non-big defender in the class. For an Oklahoma City Thunder scheme that’s already historic at forcing turnovers and boasts rim protection from each position, Penda adds even more value. Though he brings shooting and finishing question marks, he’s on a special developmental trajectory as a shooter, and his monster offensive rebounding-assists-stocks integration promises further room for growth.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

The idea of Kyrie Irving mentoring Fears is too appealing to pass up, but Fears is easily my best on the board at this point. Much like why I drafted him to the Nets in our prior mock draft, Fears has some of the best dribble-pass-shoot upside in the class, carrying a heavy burden for Oklahoma at age 18. It’s tough to find primary upside this late, but the Mavs do here.

– Matt Powers

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Bennett Stirtz is one of the best volume pick-and-roll scorers in all of college basketball, fusing pace, a tight handle, and shotmaking from every area on the court to power 87th percentile pick-and-roll ballhandler efficiency on 99th percentile frequency. He pairs this scoring with best-in-the-class feel, blending visual manipulation with a wide range of deliveries to produce a 35% assist rate and engine a top-40 Drake halfcourt offense. All this makes him an underrated creation bet, but a 47% catch-and-shoot jumpshot and tons of driving production give him a strong dribble/pass/shoot wing base. His footspeed on defense in such a role would be worrisome, but his strong feel and hand-eye coordination that leads to defensive playmaking (3.6% steal rate) would fit like a glove in Oklahoma City.

– Maurya Kumpatla

19. Miami Heat: Dailyn Swain, Xavier

At pick #19, the Miami Heat select Dailyn Swain: the young sophomore forward with creative ball-handling and lock-down defense out of Xavier. Standing at 6’8, Swain fits the Heat’s culture of players who play with a motor and a sense of toughness, which exudes itself in how Swain consistently impacts games in the most opportunistic ways. The impact is seen without needing to play on the ball at Xavier – Swain runs the break hard in transition, keeps the ball moving in the halfcourt, and is always hustling on the boards. That energy, with his size and length, translates to the defensive end where he can cover ground well and excel in lock and trail situations. While the defense and feel on the offensive end will keep him on the court early on, the Heat will need to improve Swain’s two-motion jumper for Swain to hit any form of creation upside. However, in the middle of the first round, Swain’s combination of age, size, burst, feel, flexibility, and handling comfort makes him a worthy proposition for a retooling Heat team.

– Roshan Potluri

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

With Mike Conley’s decline Minnesota has a clear need for long-term ball-handling/shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. While 2024 draft pick Rob Dillingham is an obvious candidate to fill a lot of that responsibility in coming years, it wouldn’t hurt to take another swing on a potential creator. Traore has slid down draft boards after being a preseason potential top 5 pick candidate due to a lack of efficiency and consistency, but outside of the lottery it’s hard to find players with more upside than Traore. Despite struggles this season he still has the talent to be a dynamic creator off the dribble if he can improve as a shotmaker and make smarter decisions with the ball.

– AJ Carter

21. Indiana Pacers: Ben Saraf, ULM

Rick Carlisle loves guards, and Saraf gives the Pacers another dribble-drive-pass threat. The three-point shot is poor off the dribble but acceptable off the catch. At a strong 6’5” and still just 18, Saraf has the build and productivity of someone capable of handling bench primary duties. Perhaps the single best passer in the class.

– Matt Powers

22. Brooklyn Nets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kalkbrenner’s brand of mistake-free basketball, characterized by foul and TO avoidance, is inherently low friction, and his sheer size (7’5 WS + 250 lbs) with relative mobility gives him a fairly high floor as a defender.  He’s exhibited NBA-caliber dominance since his sophomore year, and he’s slowly increased his 3P rate while consistently shooting over 70% FT for his college career. With much more room to err and experiment on the rebuilding Nets, Kalk’s collegiate extent of dominance may persist more than one would expect with a typical four-year center.

– Avinash Chauhan

23. Brooklyn Nets: Carter Bryant, Arizona

You don’t see too many bulky, athletic forwards take over half their shots from beyond 3P, but at 6’8, 225 pounds, Carter has a whopping 0.60 3P rate while remaining hyper-efficient inside the arc (14 of his 37 2P makes are dunks). The upside with Carter lies within his pull up game: in interviews, he consistently cites players like Tatum and Paul George as personal exemplars, and his AAU playtype distribution was littered with far too many pullups and PnR BH possessions. While his production and processing (7.6 BPM, 6% block, 3% steal, 1 A:TO) give him a reasonably high floor, it’s Carter’s tantalizing combination of youth, size, and shooting proclivity that could unlock true star upside.

– Avinash Chauhan

24. Atlanta Hawks: Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

This was an easy selection, and I would imagine Atlanta would be pretty stoked to draft someone at 24 who is all but a guaranteed NBA rotation player. McNeeley gets it in more ways than one. He is a surprisingly effective defensive rebounder despite his physical limitations, he makes quick decisions on and off the ball, and (somewhat surprisingly) has shown the ability to handle a larger offensive load than he did in high school playing on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory. McNeeley will present some questions defensively, but he should be able to slide into lineups featuring both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson easily. He’s only hit ~35% of his threes this season, but don’t let that deceive you, McNeeley is one of the premier off-ball weapons in this class.

– Tyler Wilson

25. Washington Wizards: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was by far the best player available, but he’s a logical fit for a Washington team still looking for high-end talent. The Alabama freshman is a quick, shifty guard who pressures the rim and passes at a high level. He could develop into a valuable connector piece for a Wizards team that just added Cooper Flagg.

– Ben Pfeifer

26. Orlando Magic: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

– Ryan Kaminski

27. Brooklyn Nets: Kam Jones, Marquette

Kam Jones would be a strong pick for the Brooklyn Nets due to his proven scoring ability and playmaking skills, averaging over 20 points and 6 assists per game at Marquette, which could bolster their backcourt during a rebuild. His experience as a senior guard, combined with his improved shooting and passing, makes him a ready-made contributor who could thrive in Brooklyn’s system under Jordi Fernández.

– Larry Golden

28. Boston Celtics: Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s

Fleming is a bit of a divisive selection as a lower-usage upperclassman playing in the A10, but at pick #28 the positives are too hard to ignore. He has been massive for St. Joe’s this year, shooting over 70% at the rim and 41% from three. In an era of NBA basketball where efficient shots are valued more than ever, Fleming is an easy bet to score in the most valuable areas of the court. His block, steal and rebounding numbers are all positive and point towards a genuine contributor on the defensive side of the ball as a powerful forward with the ability to play some small-ball five. If Boston truly “needs” anything in the draft, it is cost-controlled production. Fleming should provide real value on his rookie deal as an older prospect with the frame and complementary skillet to produce immediately. 

– Tyler Wilson

29. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford to the Los Angeles Clippers would be great because of his versatility as a 6-foot-6 guard bringing defensive flexibility and rebounding tenacity, addressing the team’s need for depth on the wing alongside stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. His senior-year performance at Colorado State—averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on efficient shooting—shows he could provide immediate contributions as a role player for the Clips.

– Larry Golden

30. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

It is unclear in which direction the Suns want to go, and Ant gives them options. His POA defense is NBA-ready, a thief ready to pounce at any moment. The best player on a top-20 team in the nation as a sophomore, Robinson is able to do important things on the court. He is the team leader in assists who has also shown outside shooting potential with 42% from three, 49% from midrange and 77% from the line splits. Despite being only 6’3”, Ant’s reported 6’7” wingspan makes him more dangerous in passing lanes or snagging the errant offensive board. His 0.78 free throw rate reiterates his level of physicality, NBA ready despite the skinny frame.

– Matt Powers

31. Boston Celtics: Johni Broome, Auburn

32. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

34. Charlotte Hornets: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

35. Detroit Pistons: Paul McNeil, NC State

36. Philadelphia 76ers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

37. Brooklyn Nets: Javon Small, West Virginia

38. Sacramento Kings: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

39. San Antonio Spurs: Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

40. Toronto Raptors: Eric Dixon, Villanova

41. Oklahoma City Thunder: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

42. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin, BYU

43. Orlando Magic: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

44. Golden State Warriors: JoJo Tugler, Houston

45. Chicago Bulls: Max Shulga, VCU

46. Los Angeles Clippers: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

47. Utah Jazz: Alex Toohey, Sydney

48. Washington Wizards: Nate Bittle, Oregon

49. Utah Jazz: Tyrese Proctor, Duke

50. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

52. Indiana Pacers: Alex Condon, Florida

53. Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Evans, Duke

54. Los Angeles Lakers: Curtis Jones, Iowa State

55. New York Knicks: Terrance Arceneaux, Houston

56. Phoenix Suns: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

57. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

58. Houston Rockets: Rocco Zikarsky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Braden Smith, Purdue

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Since the 2024 cycle, I have tried to dive deeper into answering the question of how we can project and evaluate draft prospects more accurately from the vacuum. I thought the best way to approach this would be to solve the problem systematically. I started by trying to identify what traits were common among the players that succeeded over time regardless of how limited their early usage was and their fit in the roster construction.

In a lot of ways to rank players on a board is taking a step back and looking at scouting the draft through a broader systemic approach. I believe that part of the exercise has intrinsic value. However, to project without a development context has no real value. I think the optimal way to rank and project the players from a vacuum is to identify the caliber a player can reach even if they end up in a less-than-desired development context.

The idea that I kept circling back to is that success was often tied to the traits that were much harder to develop: feel, athletic tools, motor, and touch. Digging through the history of the draft, it landed me on the concept of role malleability – a notion that encompasses these traits. In my experience, showing a high proclivity to role malleability below the age of 23 has been a strong proxy for a player’s processing, application of athletic tools, shooting tools, and motor. With this, my draft philosophy evolved and has helped me formulate my tenets of scouting the draft through my eye test and statistical analysis:

• Age-Adjusted Production Relative To Competition.
• Role Malleability Traits (Application Of Feel, Motor, Application Of Athleticism, Touch).
• Skill Intersections (Positive Or Negative Chain Of Skills That Provide Baseline For Production).
• Margin Of Error On The Court
• Application Of Tools (Avoid Archetype Bias)

In my margins piece, I designed a funnel framework to systematically value the projection of players based on their margin of error – a function of a player’s advantage creation/mitigation skillsets. While I still agree with much of what went into the framework, I realized I structured it too narrowly by using the dependency on scheme (usage of screens or an empty-side action to clear one side of the court). I mainly argued that the dependencies on scheme and volume of advantages created on offense or mitigated on defense derived a player’s margin of error on the court, and therefore their value. While this system was valuable, I noticed it was devaluing the players who do produce at a better rate with the help of scheme than the ones who produce worse and do not require assistance to create or mitigate advantages.

Since reading Avinash’s piece this past cycle, I think a more expanded way to frame the funnel framework would be by defining the Margin of Error On the Court as the application of tools (cognitive, athletic, and shooting) that lead to a positive basketball outcome regardless of scheme dependency. Advantage creation and mitigation are essentially a function of the application of tools and the efficiency of that application.

This change in framework brings more focus to the efficiency and success rate of a player versus the former idea of valuing a player for their lack of scheme dependencies or volume (a number that can be tied to usage/role). The former idea has value but overvalues high-volume flawed advantage creators and devalues players in smaller roles but are extremely efficient. When it comes to projection, having this idea in mind removes the bias of archetypes, especially from the lens of advantages.

This is another reason why I have valued role malleability highly, it captures the idea of showcasing mastery in a number of roles – mastery that only happens when the combination of cognitive, athletic, and shooting tools are applied effectively and lead to a good basketball outcome consistently.

I believe grading a player on the five tenets above gives a better projection of player quality regardless of the development context. This is how I would now evaluate players within the tiers of the funnel framework and each tier directly correlates to a tier of my draft board. Essentially a lot of the philosophy from the original framework still applies but instead of valuing it through an advantages lens, it’s about how well they grade against the 5 tenets of my draft scouting philosophy to take a more holistic approach.

Looking at it from a statistical lens, I think another good way to frame these tiers is through career VORP in the same way Spreadsheet Scouting does with his board. I plan to do my deep dive into different impact metrics to correlate these tiers statistically but for now, using these similar thresholds as a projection benchmark feels like a good approximation.

Pre-Conference Play 2025 Draft Board

Although there is still plenty of time for players to develop and regress to their averages throughout the draft cycle, this is my current assessment of the 2025 NBA Draft. Here, I rank my top draft-eligible players up to this point who I believe have the potential to reach the Green tier of the framework for their career in the NBA.

*Disclaimer: Working with the Mexico City Capitanes this year, I have excluded any prospects that form a conflict with my work and the Capitanes. I have also excluded players who will likely not declare for this draft.

Purple: All-Time Tier (45+ VORP)

• 0.1 Cooper Flagg

Players in this tier tend to check all 5 tenets I’ve laid out above. Cooper Flagg grades extremely well and is the epitome of my philosophy. Productivity at a young age, strong role malleability traits, positive skill intersections, high margin of error, Flagg’s got them all. At a young age, Flagg already has the traits that are tough to develop(size, motor, fluidity, feel, touch) and applies them effectively outside of his 3-point shooting. Even without making 3s at an efficient clip, Flagg’s margin of error is high with his size, feel, and motor which is evident in his ability to scale on and off the ball on both sides of the ball.

The reason why Flagg may not reach this tier would be his peak as an on-ball creator and a lot of this will do with his current offensive process. He creates his advantage by using his size and fluidity to get leverage but oftentimes, even when he has the opportunity to take advantage of that and get straight to the rim, he uses this window to take a midrange shot. This could be a lack of confidence in his handle counters to take it to the rim (mostly uses a spin move when he gets contained off the dribble). Flagg’s handle issue also shows up in his passing deliveries, passing off of a live dribble is still a work in progress so he often picks up his dribble to jump pass and expand his window to pass. The midrange reliance and handle issues could put more pressure on Flagg to be a better 3-point shooter to get to primacy; however, with the touch on midrange jumpers, free throw efficiency, and 3-point volume (7 3PA/100 at Duke), he’s got the chance to become a reliable 3-point shooter even in a problematic development context.

Dark Blue: All-NBA Caliber (30+ VORP)

• 1.2 Collin Murray-Boyles

Players in this tier also grade well against my tenets but there may be a smaller margin of error or limitations in role malleability that stop them from reaching the tier above but are still highly valuable players.

Collin Murray-Boyles is probably the clearest example of applying their tools to the max at a young age, with an emphasis on cognitive tools. We have over 40 games of Murray-Boyles having outlier production as a rebounder, finisher, playmaker, and defender for a 6’7″ player (10+ OREB%, 20+ DREB%, 60+ TS%, 15+ AST%, 2+ BLK and STL%). Playing in the SEC and producing at this level as a teenager is the epitome of functionally applying your tools to a high degree regardless of being undersized for a big. It’s a real proxy for how Murray-Boyles can impose his size, strength, length, feel, and hand-eye coordination even against older athletes. He has such a high margin for error because he produces at an outlier rate in so many areas of the game, but he truly shines on the defensive end. Processing rotations early, the length and coordination to protect the rim, the ability to flip his hips, footspeed, and upper-body strength to contain dribble drives all give Murray-Boyles a high degree of role malleability on defense.

Unlike Flagg, Collin Murray-Boyles is a lower-volume shooter and handler, which has limited his role malleability on the other end, and plays more as a big offensively. While he’s shown a much larger sample of shooting and handling in HS and AAU compared to college, the sample is still limited. There has been an uptick in that volume in his sophomore year compared to his freshman year, but the lack of experience in those situations would need him to end up in a context that would allow him to play through inexperience as a handler and reach a higher outcome on the offensive end. Regardless, he’s shown a high degree of efficiency on non-rim 2s and good energy transfer on his shot since HS/AAU that the shot can be improved with range even without that desirable context. In my opinion, Murray Boyles’ has a high margin of error with the rest of his game that he can reach this tier of player operating as a high feel DHO big and exceedingly versatile defender.

Light Blue: All-Star Caliber (15+ VORP)

• 2.3 Dylan Harper
• 2.4 VJ Edgecombe
• 2.5 Kon Knueppel
• 2.6 Jase Richardson
• 2.7 Thomas Sorber
• 2.8 Derik Queen
• 2.9 Jeremiah Fears
• 2.10 Darrion Williams
• 2.11 Khaman Maluach

The light blue tier tends to have players that have even lower margins of error than the tiers above due to having more red flags in their profile but produced at such an outlier level in my other tenets that they can still provide all-star caliber production. Even with the red flags, the players in this tier can often reach secondary or tertiary creation with varying degrees of role malleability on defense.

Dylan Harper has shown he can be an elite driver with his acceleration, size, rotation in tight spaces, and feel, but he’s struggled with his midrange efficiency since HS/AAU. He’s got mediocre initial burst and vertical explosion. This shows up on tape and in his defensive playmaking numbers against higher-level competition, so he needs to be a high-level pull-up shooter to be a more rounded scorer in the league. These issues drop his margins of error, but with how outlier his driving production is at his age, the shooting is something that can improve in a less-desired context. Especially, since he’s always shown a proclivity to shoot the ball with volume.

Jase Richardson, in addition to Cason Wallace and Johnny Furphy in years past, have been the exact types of players that have caused me to define the margin of error on the application of tools and their efficiency rather than grading them against the volume or the lack of dependency on scheme. Oftentimes, it’s difficult to have high usage as a freshman in some high-major programs due to a) upperclassmen monopolizing usage and b) getting the coach’s confidence to rely on a young player. Players like Jase Richardson are exceptionally efficient in their low-usage roles but often don’t have the leeway to do more even if they can. Being elite at the simple things does not get valued enough and it’s why I believe Richardson has a false ceiling.

He’s exceedingly quick at processing passes that are one rotation away, and ample burst and strong touch make him a multi-level scorer. Richardson has traits that are harder to develop and give him an immediate baseline as a closeout creator, but these same traits are why I think he can scale up with a higher offensive workload. So far those results in on-ball situations since his pre-NCAA sample have been stellar albeit on a small sample. There are some red flags with his size and athletic indicators such as rebounding and defensive playmaking against top competition, but Richardson has such a high margin of error with how great he is at the simple and the role malleability he’s shown in limited usage.

Maryland big man Derik Queen has shown high application of processing, touch, and scoring versatility so far. Even though he is closer to being a sophomore in age, Queen has one of the higher offensive projections in the class. His ability to scale on and off the ball offensively, hurt defenses with his touch, and shift defenses with his playmaking at his size give him a high margin of error. The application of tools is not as effective on the other side of the ball, where he’s not a true shot-blocking presence and will most likely be reliant on hedge and recover situations. Queen’s production would be dominant even for a sophomore and with this margin of error on the offensive end, he could reach All-Star level production in the NBA even with his lack of role malleability on the defensive end.

Green: Career Starter – Above Average Rotational Player (3+ VORP)

• 3.12 Tre Johnson
• 3.13 Noah Penda
• 3.14 Ryan Kalkbrenner
• 3.15 Noa Essengue
• 3.16 Ace Bailey
• 3.17 Joan Beringer
• 3.18 Labaron Philon
• 3.19 Asa Newell
• 3.20 Walter Clayton Jr.
• 3.21 Johni Broome
• 3.22 Kasparas Jakucionis
• 3.23 Anthony Robinson II
• 3.24 Miles Byrd

Finally, the players in this tier tend to have the production to be good NBA players but have clear limitations or flags in their profile that prevent them from reaching higher value. For example, this can be players with strong application of tools but there are specific areas in their game where the tools might be missing or are not effectively applied, causing a far lower margin for error. Due to these issues with their games, these players generally need to end up in a more favorable development context to attain this tier or higher

Ace Bailey is a player who is going to need to end up in a context with defined roles, getting him experience playing in a scaled-down role and working on quicker decision-making. Why? Bailey has been tremendous as a shooter at a young age, especially inside the arc but his feel is lagging to project him as a creator. His shotmaking at his size can be absurd but his low assist/usage ratio, high turnover rate, and lower rim rate give him far lower margins. This shows up on tape too, where Bailey often can hold onto the ball for long periods out of triple-threat situations, slowing down the offense and not capitalizing on a tilted defense. With the right context, these tendencies can be hammered out and you might be looking at a dynamic play finisher that can play multiple defensive roles.

Kasparas Jakucionis has shown a strong intersection of touch and feel at 6’6″ but he has far lower margins of error to be a role-malleable creator considering his high turnovers, low at-the-rim rate, below-the-rim finishing, and difficulty shooting off-the-catch. Perhaps Jakucionis is such an elite shooter that his margins expand, but with these concerns, I have a tough time betting higher value solely on his intersection of touch and feel.

Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II will be below 20.5 on draft night and has had great production in his first real year of usage. At 6’3 with great feel, touch, and length, he’s shown a great application of his tools with his high assist/usage ratio, OREB%, FTR, and STL%. Honestly, from a statistical perspective, there’s not a lot to question in Robinson’s profile outside of his low 3-point volume and efficiency, which could be a function of his role at Missouri because he shot at a 0.42 3-point rate in 17U EYBL play.

He’s also not an outlier vertical athlete at his size with his < 1 BLK% and lower dunk numbers. These issues cause Robinson to have a lower error for margin, but the biggest gripe I have with him is when you turn on the tape. From a statistical lens, it looks like Robinson has a sound handle, but he’s got some issues with lifting from his handle into deliveries in live-dribble situations. Part of this is just general ball control as he has to expend more energy to keep the dribble alive and that often leads to high dribble points. Due to this, Missouri sets highway screens to get Robinson better lanes and he relies on a jail dribble to not have his handle tested. While I think the shooting can be developed with his shooting indicators throughout his sample, the handle gives a lower margin of error to be a creator in a less-than-favorable context. However, with the rest of his profile, he’s got the chance to be a strong starter with development.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Board (Pre-Conference Play) and some draft philosophy notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Washington Wizards: Cooper Flagg, Duke

Cooper Flagg is a primary offensive option, one of the best defensive players in the country, leading a top ten team as a true 18-year-old freshman after being the highest-rated American High School prospect since… Anthony Davis? Yet somehow the discourse surrounding him to start the year has developed a negative tint. This is a special prospect, even if he doesn’t become the literal reincarnation of LeBron James. Two-way forwards do not grow on trees and their importance to playoff basketball cannot be understated. A foundation of Cooper Flagg and Bilal Coulibaly is an ideal starting point for building a roster meant for May and June. While Washington might not have your typical “star creator” on the roster they are not in a place to be drafting for context at the top of the draft. These kinds of players are worth their weight in gold, and the Wizards are running to the bank.

– Tyler Wilson

2. New Orleans Pelicans: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper is a natural scoring creator with legitimate two-way feel; Dylan dices up defenses with ease. Harper consistently creates good looks for himself and his teammates, forces turnovers on defense, plays with a grab-and-go pace, and scores tough shots at every level. Dylan’s downhill explosiveness jumps off the page with incredible body control to decelerate, finish at the rim, draw fouls, and kick out to open shooters. Dylan looks like this draft class’ best primary halfcourt offensive engine who can create good looks for the team every time down the floor. With Zion, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy flanking him in the frontcourt, adding Dylan Harper to the mix opens up the Pelicans’ options to build around this exciting walking bucket.

– Ryan Kaminski

3. Utah Jazz: Derik Queen, Maryland

The 6’10 Derik Queen will go to the Utah Jazz in the upcoming NBA Draft, and it’s easy to see why. His exceptional skillset makes him a highly coveted player for any team, but especially for the Jazz at this point in the draft. With a blend of feel, versatility, and impressive court vision, Queen can impact games in multiple facets. The ability to grab the ball off the glass and show off how comfortable he is as a ball handler in the open floor will be a headache for teams. Coaches can deploy him in delay actions, chin, dribble handoffs as the operator and trust him to make the right reads. The potential of having a pair as skilled as Lauri Markkanen and Queen could lead to not only fun for fans, but also wins.

– Larry Golden

4. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Despite having played this season in relative obscurity compared to other highly touted draft prospects, Collin Murray-Boyles has made significant developments to his game which should see him garner heavy consideration at the top of the class. During Murray-Boyles’ freshman campaign he played a more complementary role for South Carolina and thrived as a play finisher and opportunistic playmaker. So far this season, Murray-Boyles’ usage has been significantly scaled up and he’s gotten MORE efficient as a scorer. Of the 14 players in the country 6’7 or taller with over a 25% Usage Rate, Murray-Boyles possesses the highest True-Shooting% and the second-highest assist rate. What these statistical thresholds convey is Murray-Boyles’ presenting one of the most unique intersections of size and playmaking ability in the class. While I understand the Raptors’ faithful may have some consternation about Murray-Boyles’ fit with their resident jumbo-playmaker in Scottie Barnes, I believe this is a misguided thought for a team still seeking identity. At this phase of their team-building process the Raptors cannot afford to draft for fit and Murray-Boyles, in my estimation, is the best player remaining on the board.

– Ahmed Jama

5. Charlotte Hornets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Charlotte secures their star big of the future with Thomas Sorber. A rotation of Mark Williams, Nick Richards, and Miles Bridges at center has resulted in three straight bottom-10 defensive seasons. Sorber’s 10.8% stock rate and +4.5 defensive BPM using physical dominance, feel, fluidity, and hand-eye coordination promise instant remedies. His athleticism, touch, and processing fit immediately as a play finisher with LaMelo Ball and as a dribble-handoff hub with Brandon Miller, while his massive offensive rebounding-stocks-assists integration (10.0% offensive rebound and 16.5% assist rates), tons of interior craft (78th percentile post-up efficiency), and ample shooting indicators dating back to high school (37.9% on non-rim twos and 71.6% on free-throws pre-NCAA) enable further pathways for development.

– Maurya Kumpatla

6. Portland Trailblazers: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Portland is a team in an interesting spot, as they have a lot of intriguing younger players but lack a clear direction for their roster. Ace makes a lot of sense for them as arguably the best player available who also fits in nicely around some of their other core pieces with his length, shotmaking, and defensive upside. Portland would be a good landing spot for Ace as well, as they have enough ball handling and guard play to be able to ease him in offensively and let him work off the ball rather than overtasking him in a creator role.

– AJ Carter

7. Oklahoma City Thunder: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

The OKC Thunder keep getting stronger, adding another top-10 pick to their already-loaded young core. As the No. 1 seed in the West, their defense has been a force, built on aggressively forcing turnovers through blocks and steals. Enter VJ Edgecombe, the only freshman to post a 5% mark in both steal and block rates—making him the perfect fit for this defensive juggernaut. Joining the Thunder gives him the ideal situation to showcase his defensive strengths while sharpening his offensive game. The Thunder’s guard room is stacked, but the chance to work on his shot with Chip Engelland and reduce driving turnovers in OKC’s spaced-out drive-and-kick offense should do wonders for VJ’s offensive development.

– Roshan Potluri

8. Brooklyn Nets: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Jeremiah Fears could lock up the Brooklyn Nets’ point guard position for the foreseeable future. The Oklahoma freshman has taken up huge usage (most in the SEC) despite only recently turning 18. There are few chances for heliocentric upside in this class, and Fears might have it with his dribble/pass/shoot potential and early returns. With patience, technique, and surprising strength beyond his years (he draws a TON of fouls), Fears will be a tough cover at any level. He’s not a pushover on defense, either, securing over two steals per game with limited fouling. The Nets could give Fears a long enough runway to see just how high that upside is.

– Matt Powers

9. Detroit Pistons: Asa Newell, Georgia

I’m aware this choice may feel somewhat controversial. Detroit was not a team I found terribly easy to draft for. I strongly considered Kasparas as an off-ball shotmaker alongside Cade, which I believe to be Kasparas’ ideal role. Newell is a guy I’m higher on than consensus, I buy the shooting relative to the numbers and the general scalability, which Detroit needs. They don’t have a tonne of long-term versatility within their core, and I buy Newell being able to slot in alongside whatever they want to do. He just feels like the exact type of player they need in the half-court and I buy Bickerstaff being a good coach for him, which matters.

– Joe Hulbert

10. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

It’s been a while since the Bulls have had a point guard who can make things happen in the halfcourt and create for their teammates consistently. Jakucionis is a 6’6 point guard with true star upside who flashes elite passing skills, pull-up shooting, and driving. In 177 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler he scores a 0.944 in PPP which is good enough for 64th percentile. The shooting off the dribble has been rock steady as he’s taken 36 and made 47%, even before arriving at Illinois it’s been a true strength of his which is a very desirable skill in the NBA. This would be a no-brainer pick for the Chicago Bulls.

– Larry Golden

11. Sacramento Kings: Liam McNeeley, UConn

A high volume 3pt sniper handoff extraordinaire who attacks closeouts with a myriad of tools, Liam McNeeley slides right into the Kings’ schemes. McNeeley brings 3-point shot versatility (C&S, pull-up, movement) and counters closeouts by attacking the rack looking to posterize anyone in his path. In Montverde’s loaded starting unit of Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, Derik Queen, and Rob Wright, McNeeley would often end up the leading scorer as a floor-spacing play-finishing scoring valve who could heat up at any moment. Whether he’s backing up Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter or replacing them, McNeeley can fill a similar role playing off the strong screen DHO playmaking of Domantas Sabonis, whether De’Aaron Fox stays in town or not.

– Ryan Kaminski

12. San Antonio Spurs: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Steering away from their affinity towards lengthy, athletic defensive-minded wings nets San Antonio one of the most well-polished offensive prospects in the class. Jase Richardson kills with productivity by extracting the most out of every touch; few can match his balanced shot distribution and monster offensive efficiency (74% true shooting and 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio). His integration of versatile shooting, driving, and pristine decision-making gives him a high floor with tons of role malleability as a spot-up shooter and second-side creator. Still, Richardson has consistently scaled up production in games with higher doses of usage in a way that gives hope for untapped on-ball upside: he has a 74.5% true shooting in games with <15% usage versus 78.2% in games with >15% usage.

– Maurya Kumpatla

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Atlanta already has several long-term pieces in place (Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson,  Zaccharie Risacher), and Tre Johnson looks the part of someone who has the versatility to complement all of them. He’s a ready-made shotmaker with high-end upside as a shooter, and he’s also shown flashes as a playmaker and on-ball defender. A fully developed version of Johnson would be a great fit in Atlanta as a do-it-all wing who can fit into a variety of roles while spacing the floor for Trae.

– AJ Carter

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

In today’s NBA, you can never have too many dribble/pass/shoot wings, and that holds true even for the stacked OKC Thunder. Noah Penda brings the perfect blend of high feel, strength, and catch-and-shoot ability to thrive as a closeout creator in the Thunder’s offense. Where Penda truly stands out is on the defensive end, where he excels at creating turnovers both on the perimeter and as a weakside rim protector. This combination of skills on both ends of the floor should allow Penda to make an immediate impact for OKC, all while being under 21 for most of his rookie year.

– Roshan Potluri

15. Indiana Pacers: Johni Broome, Auburn

One of college basketball’s main storylines in the early season has been Auburn’s historically dominant start. Currently leading every major computer rating system while playing the most difficult schedule in the country, Johni Broome in many ways has been the catalyst for Auburn’s early-season heroics. Broome has oscillated between being the team’s defensive anchor and offensive fulcrum, similar to the previous season, while increasing his efficiency across the board. Broome’s all-encompassing impact on the best team in college basketball bodes well for his role in the league, where interchangeability is a necessary condition for reserve frontcourt players. And with Myles Turner’s impending free agency, the Pacers’ frontcourt composition is in a precarious state. Johni Broome could easily be integrated into a lineup with or without Turner, and coalesce with the other Pacer’s frontcourt players.

– Ahmed Jama

16. San Antonio Spurs: Kon Knueppel, Duke

The 19th-ranked offense Spurs double down on offensive bets here with Kon Knueppel, who is as pure of a shooter as you’ll find. He’s a lifetime 41% on threes, 84% on free throws, and 49% on non-rim twos across the EYBL and NCAA since 2020, making his shooting projection seamless. Knueppel pairs this shooting with high levels of ballhandling and feel, possessing a tight handle (9.7% turnover rate) with off-putting dribble cadences and being a quick processor (3.4 assist-to-turnover ratio), all of which coincide to make him an 88th percentile pick-and-roll ball handler in the country according to Synergy Sports. Athleticism and physicality are major concerns for Knueppel on both ends, but no team gives him the margins to succeed as the Spurs’ length and athleticism do.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noa Essengue, Ulm

Noa Essengue will be 18.5 on draft night, making him an elite upside pick for the Thunder. With an established roster and a strong development staff, there’s no pressure for him to create in the half-court right away. Essengue has been a dominant force in transition, applying immense pressure on the rim with 34 dunks and a 0.77 free throw rate in the Basketball Bundesliga (25 games). At 6’10” with a reported 9’3.25” reach, Essengue is a pliable forward capable of both protecting the rim and stifling opponents at the point of attack. Despite being a teenager, Essengue shows great feel for the game which is evident in his 2% steal rate and 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. While his touch as a finisher still needs work, his 68.6% from the free-throw line and 30% three-point rate provide a strong foundation for improvement. With one of the NBA’s best shooting development staff, Essengue is well-positioned to refine his skills and develop into a special two-way player for the Thunder.

– Roshan Potluri

18. Golden State Warriors: Egor Demin, BYU

A quintessential Warriors player with his intersection of size and feel, if he were drafted this season Demin would be one of only four one-and-done freshmen above 6’7 to post above a 20% assist rate, the others being Anthony Black, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Ben Simmons. Demin has acquitted himself extremely well exclusively running the point in BYU’s NBA-style offense. However, questions remain about whether he can sustain this production versus better competition, and how well his shooting will hold considering his mediocre priors. While these concerns are valid, what Demin’s demonstrated so far should portend well for a reduced role for a Golden State team in need of a two-way connector.

– Ahmed Jama

19. Houston Rockets: Khaman Maluach, Duke

The Rockets get one of the most impactful freshmen in the country at a relative value. Khaman Maluach has played a critical role in Duke’s nation-leading adjusted defensive efficiency while playing a remarkably mistake-free offensive role. Everything about Khaman’s game oozes physical dominance, starting with anthropometrics: he has 10-inch wide hands and a 9’8 standing reach, both of which would rank amongst the top of the league. Khaman is a force on the glass (15% offensive rebound rate), a wildly efficient scorer (81% true shooting), and he’s showcased an uncanny ability to both draw fouls (0.60 free throw rate) and limit possession obstruction (< 4 fouls/40 + 11% TO). He even demonstrates some semblance of touch, shooting 80% from the line. Khaman and his anti-foul rim protection style should seamlessly slot into Ime Udoka’s stifling defensive scheme. There are certainly pertinent concerns regarding Khaman’s feel, but this is the type of high-upside, immediate-production selection that the surging Rockets should be looking to make.

– Avinash Chauhan

20. Utah Jazz: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Boogie is one of the best guards in this draft class. The burst off the dribble is truly something to watch while he’s on the floor. This is a guard who can create and get into the paint without a screen and show off his touch with his floater or make the reads necessary to keep advantages going. He’s sporting a 73-27 assist-to-turnover rate so far this season. Boogie is also shooting 36% from three while launching 60 of them. There aren’t many players in this draft who combine the ball handling, creativity, and self-creation upside as Boogie. This is the best available pick.

– Larry Golden

21. Brooklyn Nets: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon is the most “gadget-y” player in the class, and that’s why I love him in a backcourt next to earlier pick Jeremiah Fears. His game isn’t perfect – he needs to clean up his catch-and-shoot technique and have more anticipation for passing reads – but is consistently a plus across skills. He has not gotten a chance to show off his pull-up shooting as more of a connector in the Alabama system, but still can juice their offense which is nearly ten points better with him on. His positioning overall is elite, making him a threatening defender and able to clean up easy transition looks. If he can build on his scoring (he remains highly efficient at 59% true shooting), Philon could provide a backcourt panacea to endless problems.

– Matt Powers

22. Orlando Magic: Kam Jones, Marquette

Orlando is ready to contend. Their biggest need is a pull-up three-point sniper who can score and run some offense to pull defenders away from Franz and Paolo. In walks Kam Jones, arguably the best college player in the country. Averaging 20 PPG with a 4.2 A/TO his senior season while hitting 38% on six 3PA over a four-year college career sample size, Kam may provide the instant floor-spacing spark Orlando’s offense so desperately needs.

– Ryan Kaminski

23. Orlando Magic: Donnie Freeman

Donnie Freeman is a strong big wing who brings two-way impact because he can score, rebound, defend, and hit the open three. Freeman shows promising touch indicators like high FT% for positive shooting development. The highest ceiling guards on the board were Ben Saraf, who makes incredible highlight passes, and Nolan Traore, who attacks gaps with quick burst, flashes connector tendencies, hustles defensively, and has flashed the pull-up shot on rare occasions. But, neither Saraf nor Traore have been a consistent 3-point shooter. For a contending team targeting good basketball players this late in the draft who can quickly contribute and space the floor, the strategy taken was finding high-floor reserves who can fill a 6th-9th man slot in the rotation with the potential to fill in as starters when called upon. While both guards have higher potential ceilings, hoping rookies develop a skill they don’t currently show on a roster where the opportunity to do so is limited is a tough situation for them to succeed.

– Ryan Kaminski

24. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Saraf, Ulm

Ben Saraf burst onto the first-round radar with his MVP performance at the 2024 U18 Euro Championship. His most obvious strength is his size/feel: he’s measured at 6’5 without shoes and a 6’7.5 wingspan, with a certified highlight reel of passing flair and abrupt steals to boot. While the shot hasn’t quite been falling this year, Saraf has a 33% assist rate and 2.7% steal rate while leveraging his size en route to a 5.4% offensive rebound and 1.1% block rate. And he’s doing this as the unquestioned engine of a surprisingly great Ratiopharm Ulm team that’s currently 9-2 in the Eurocup. Saraf has drawn comparisons to former Ulm PG and current Long Island Net Killian Hayes, especially as a fellow lefty, but this is aesthetic bias personified: Saraf is far more turnover avoidant while showing an ability to make open catch-and-shoot threes (46% open 3P% vs 27% open 3P% for pre-draft Killian). There are clear athletic and shooting concerns with Saraf, but productive teenagers leading productive teams are a dime a dozen. Saraf could be THE tank commander for the Nets as they Dive (in the standings) for Darryn or Lose for Booz(er).

– Avinash Chauhan

25. Brooklyn Nets: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Willams was an easy pick for me here, even despite being older at 22 on draft day. He is extremely productive, #6 in Box Plus-Minus in the NCAA. He can shoot – a career 40% three-point shooter on 6 attempts per 100 possessions and 86% from the line on 167 attempts. But more importantly, he has shown his passing has more upside than initially displayed his prior two seasons, now up to 5.2 assists per game compared to only 2.0 turnovers. Despite not being the fleetest of feet, he contributes everywhere, getting some boards, some steals, some blocks with his high feel for the game. The Brooklyn Nets cannot pass up someone who can grease the offense from the wing (Darrion is 6’6”, I should mention) while proving through his production he can hang in athletically.

– Matt Powers

26. Dallas Mavericks: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

The Mavs need blue-chip young talent. The Luka-to-Lively connection should be a permanent fixture of Mavs basketball for the next decade, but beyond that tandem, there is a real lack of youthful upside on the roster. Nolan Traore has had a rough start to his season in a surprisingly large role for a teenager with Saint Quentin, but the talent is untenable. He is a walking paint touch with NBA-level athleticism at the guard spot. His ability to defend the point of attack and create out of the pick-and-roll pairs well with Luka both on the court and while he sits. The shot will need to come around, but at this point in the draft that is a bet worth taking.

– Tyler Wilson

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Orlando desperately needs more guard creation to relieve pressure from its offensive stars. Pettiford brings that needed offensive juice. He shoots efficiently from deep range off of the bounce, breaks defenses with his speed, and finds his teammates for open shots. Point guards of his size always face a challenging climb to the NBA, but Pettiford’s advanced offensive toolkit and defensive playmaking on Orlando’s roster of giants bode well for his chances.

– Ben Pfeifer

28. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford feels destined to be a Clipper. He’s an older prospect who should be ready to compete on both ends of the floor from the start of training camp. He has had a larger offensive role this season, but that is not his sell as a prospect. Clifford is a grinder on both ends of the floor, an above-the-rim athlete who knows where to be and when to be there. Statistically, his projection as a shooter is a bit murky (68% from the line and  35% from three for his career), but his comfortability in the midrange and shooting over contests is encouraging. For a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team led by two high-usage stars, Clifford is an easy plug-and-play fit.

– Tyler Wilson

29. Boston Celtics: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Gonzalez would add another defensively slanted wing into the rotation, something they’ll never complain about. He’s defended at a positive level for stretches throughout his Euroleague play this season, imposing his will as a point of attack and low-man defender. Boston will have no problems waiting for Gonzalez to tap into a passable level of offensive impact, and Gonzalez fell too far for his talent level.

– Ben Pfeifer

30. Utah Jazz: Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Fleming is a 6’9 forward who is showing signs of being able to stretch the floor from three making 39% on 53 attempts in 12 games. Not only is he able to shoot it, but he also has enough handle to attack closeouts and go finish at the rim with force and even finesse with his athleticism. Fleming is still only 20 years old and provides a lot of intrigue with his versatility on both sides of the ball. He currently leads his team in stocks with 41 total (22 steals, 19 blocks). Picking Fleming at the 30th pick is a win.

– Larry Golden

31. Boston Celtics: Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

32. Charlotte Hornets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

34. Detroit Pistons: Will Riley, Illinois

35. Charlotte Hornets: Jacob Cofie, Virginia

36. Toronto Raptors: Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

37. Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

38. Brooklyn Nets: Danny Wolf, Michigan

39. Washington Wizards: Alex Karaban, UConn

40. Indiana Pacers: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

41. San Antonio Spurs: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

42. Chicago Bulls: Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

43. San Antonio Spurs: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

44. Oklahoma City Thunder: Xaivian Lee, Princeton

45. Los Angeles Lakers: Igor Milicic Jr., Tennessee

46. Golden State Warriors: Juni Mobley, Ohio State

47. Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

48. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

49. Atlanta Hawks: Jamir Watkins, Florida State

50. Washington Wizards: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

51. Washington Wizards: Dink Pate, Mexico City

52. Charlotte Hornets: JoJo Tugler, Houston

53. Orlando Magic: Jalil Bethea, Miami

54. Dallas Mavericks: KJ Lewis, Arizona

55. Memphis Grizzlies: Tucker Devries, West Virginia

56. New York Knicks: Drake Powell, UNC

57. Houston Rockets: Max Shulga, VCU

58. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Impressive start for Kam Jones

Kam Jones is someone I’ve gone back and forth on in the past, but he’s been one of my biggest risers among returning players so far. He’s taken on a bigger load this season and in turn has been as good as any player in the country. What’s been really impressive about Kam this year is that he’s clearly not in a role best fit for who he is as a player, but he’s still been incredible in spite of that. 

Kam’s ideal usage is similar to how he played next to Tyler Kolek in previous years, as someone who can create some on the ball but also thrives as an off-ball weapon who is constantly moving and putting pressure on defenses with the threat of his shooting. This year Marquette has surrounded Kam with significantly less playmaking than in years past, and in turn he’s been really good in a lead creator role where he’s responsible for creating a ton of offense with the ball in his hands. This has caused his 3pt rate to plummet, going from taking 13.9 3 point attempers per 100 possessions the past 2 seasons down to just 8.4 3PA/100 this season.

Despite not getting to showcase one of his best skills as much this year, Kam has been better than ever. He’s averaging more than double the assists per game without increasing his turnover rate at all, giving him an outstanding AST/TO ratio of 4.4/1 so far this season. I still wouldn’t label him as a super advanced passer, but he’s quick with a good handle and doesn’t make many mistakes or bad decisions. Since prospects generally can’t control what team they go to or how they are used early on at the NBA level, this type of role malleability that Kam has shown is a really positive sign for his translation to the NBA level.

If you look over the course of his career Kam has proven that he can easily scale his usage on offense up or down depending on what his team needs. He’s extremely effective playing with limited dribbles while keeping the ball moving, but he’s also very comfortable stringing together dribble moves to create against a set defense. That combination of skills is really rare and valuable to find. Add in the fact that he has the strength and frame to compete on defense a little more than most combo guard prospects, and the package that Kam Jones brings to the table is really enticing – even for someone who will be 23 years old on draft night. He’s comfortably a first-round caliber prospect to me right now and I think you can make a strong argument for Kam to be a lottery pick in the 2025 class.  

Understanding Ace Bailey

So far this season there have been a lot of mixed opinions and commentary on Ace Bailey. He’s shown tremendous flashes as a tough shotmaker, but there have been a lot of people pointing out that he’s so reliant on these tough shots because he isn’t able to generate himself anything easier off the dribble due to a basic handle and lack of physicality. And sure, it’s definitely true that he’s struggled to create separation, rarely gets 2 feet in the paint off the dribble right now, and doesn’t do much as a playmaker. But I think it’s important to value all of the stuff that Ace does well rather than just focus purely on the areas that he isn’t currently good at, and consider how he would look in a different role.

He still has a ways to go in his development but Ace looks to me like someone we can project as a 6’9 athletic wing that is versatile defensively, contributes on the glass, can get out and run the floor, and has rare shot making ability for his size. Even if he’s never effective taking more than 2-3 dribbles at once, that’s still an incredibly valuable and useful player for any NBA team. So while I agree with most of the concerns most people have about Ace’s handle and viability as a creator, I think you can still justify ranking him near the top of the draft regardless of the on-ball limitations. One thing I’m looking to see from him the rest of the way is if he can up his 3pt volume, as his current rate of roughly 7 3PA/100 is solid but below what I’d like to see from a shooting prospect of Ace Bailey’s caliber. 

The Two Sides of Egor Demin

Egor Demin has been one of the more interesting players to monitor so far this season, as he’s looked extremely different depending on the competition he’s facing. Against low/mid-major teams such as UC Riverside and Central Arkansas, Demin has looked every bit like a top 5 pick. He’s gotten downhill off the dribble, shot it at a high level, showed some athletic juice, and looks like an incredible passer for a 6’8-6’9 guard. 

However, against high-major teams, it’s almost like watching a different player. Demin has struggled immensely to score against length and hasn’t been comfortable or confident enough to get to his spots in the same manner. There’s been a lot of instances in games against teams like Ole Miss and Providence where Demin is picking up his dribble and passing before ever creating an advantage, which has stalled the offense a bit. When he has tried to get into his bag off the dribble his handle has looked slow and sloppy. Even his passing ability has looked worse in these games, as he’s had a lot of turnovers trying to thread passing windows that just aren’t there against teams with higher levels of length and athleticism. Missing more shots against better defenses is natural and isn’t super concerning by itself over a small sample, but the way in which his creation impact has fallen off a cliff in these matchups is pretty worrisome. 

Ultimately Demin is still someone that I’m relatively high on due to the combination of size and passing as an 18-year-old and I do believe in his jumper, but it’s clear that we need to temper expectations of him as a creator until he starts to show he can produce against higher level competition. 

Other BYU Prospects

Outside of Demin, BYU has another pair of interesting potential prospects that I think are worth mentioning in Kanon Catchings and Richie Saunders. They are near polar opposites as players as Catchings is still very raw, but shows a lot of skills valuable to being an NBA forward. He’s about 6’9 with good length and covers ground at a high level on the defensive end, giving him a lot of potential versatility on that side as he fills out his frame and gets more disciplined. Catchings has also come out of the gates as a very high volume 3pt shooter (13.9 3PA/100), and while there has been mixed results the comfortability that he already has getting up jumpers as a 19-year-old forward is a very good sign. I talk about 3pt volume a lot, but it’s something I really value and in a lot of cases is better for projecting long-term shooting talent than just looking at 3pt%. Right now I think there are too many holes in Catchings’ game to be a 2025 prospect that I’m really interested in drafting, but he fits a valuable archetype as a projectable 3 + D forward and is someone to keep an eye on long term. 

Richie Saunders doesn’t share the high-end physical tools that Catchings has, but he’s just a very good basketball player who knows how to impact winning. Saunders’ game is built around really high level feel, motor, and processing speeds on both ends of the court which allows him to be a relatively mistake-free player who is constantly moving and making things happen. He’s really effective playing off the catch on offense and his combination of feel and quick hands leads to a lot of deflections on the defensive end.

Saunders is someone who both impresses a lot when I watch him and also has a really solid statistical profile. He’s averaging less than 1 turnover per game, is shooting around 40% from 3, finishes at the rim at a high clip, and has nice STL + BLK rates. The biggest swing skill for Saunders that I’ll be looking at the rest of the year is the shooting. He’s had a nice start from 3pt but prior to this year he’s been closer to an average shooter. With some of his athletic limitations he is likely going to need to be a definitively above-average shooter to be an NBA player, but if the shooting improvements are real I can see Saunders being a quality 2nd round target.

The Versatility of Labaron Philon

Coming into the year my main impression of Labaron Philon was that he was a really crafty offensive minded guard that can create offense with the ball in his hands. And while that’s certainly remained true, I’ve been impressed with how well-rounded his game is for a teenage guard prospect and his ability to contribute on both ends. He’s not an elite level defender but he’s shown the ability to stay in front of the ball and he has the length to defend both guard spots. He’s had some struggles fighting through physical screens, but otherwise he’s done a really good job of staying attached on the ball when defending in space and has already been tasked with guarding some really high-level college guards.

Offensively, Alabama has let Philon have chances with the ball in his hands but he’s also had to fit in as a role player playing next to one of the most established guards in the country in Mark Sears. Philon’s ability to fit in well with or without the ball in his hands has stood out, as he already has a lot of quality complementary skills while still being someone who can create when you put the ball in his hands. He makes quick decisions off the catch and is good at extending advantages against a compromised defense. Alabama has even used Philon as a guard-to-guard screener in actions with Sears at times, which might not apply to his NBA role but speaks to the versatility and willingness to play a role that he’s shown this year.

Labaron needs to add some strength and he hasn’t looked comfortable or been effective from beyond the arc this season, but he has good enough shooting priors and natural touch to where it’s easy to believe in the shot improving. Outside of that he already has a good foundation of skills in place. His ability to play on or off the ball while competing defensively gives him the makings of a really solid all-around guard who can fit into different roles effectively, while his ball handling and ability to break down defenses off the dribble still give him the creation upside you’re looking for in a lottery caliber guard prospect. I view Philon as a solid 1st round prospect with a chance to climb into the lottery if he shoots it better from 3 the rest of the year. 

The Adou Thiero Breakout

One of four Kentucky transfers to follow John Calipari over to Arkansas, Adou Thiero has taken a huge leap offensively this season and has been his team’s leading scorer so far. He can still be rigid with the ball in his hands and isn’t a natural handler, but he’s clearly figuring out how to leverage his athletic gifts to get to the rim and has developed the ability to make tough off-balance jumpers from 10-15 feet out. Thiero is also a pretty solid passer for an energy guy and knows how to keep the ball moving and make basic passing reads.

The glaring issue right now is the 3pt shooting, which has always been something Thiero has struggled with. He doesn’t have the smoothest release and will put up some bad misses, and is sub 30% from 3pt for his college career. He is pretty good at using his size and athleticism to cut towards the rim when teams sag off of him, but the lack of 3pt shooting is still an issue. The hope for him is that the touch he’s shown on some of the shorter mid-range shots he’s been good at this year can be expanded out farther to the perimeter. 

The main selling point for Thiero is that he’s an elite defensive prospect, equipped with a special combination of physical tools and motor. It’s not hyperbole to say that you would be hard-pressed to find a player who consistently brings as much energy on the court as Thiero. The athletic tools let him put the motor to effective use as well, as he has the verticality to make plays on the interior as a rim protector, the foot speed to guard down on the perimeter, and the strength to match up against bigger wings and forwards. 

Ultimately it would be hard to justify taking Thiero with a high draft pick right now with how bleak his 3pt shooting profile looks, but he still has more long-term upside to tap into and is someone I’d be happy to take later in the draft as is because of all the other stuff he does well. He has all the intangibles and tools you want in an athletic end-of-the-bench energy guy early on in his career, while still having a clear path to being a valuable piece if he continues in his offensive development and is ever able to even be passable as a jump shooter.

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