Milan Momcilovic’s absence from all mainstream mock drafts and boards perplexes me. After a freshman year where the 6’8 forward proved himself an elite shotmaker, he’s positioned well to make a run at the 2025 draft for an elite Iowa State team.

The shotmaking numbers are gaudy — 36.1% from three on 8.8 attempts per 100, a 49.9 three-point attempt rate, 80.9% on free-throws and 45.6% (68-149) on long two-pointers. The only other 6’8+ freshman to match Momcilovic’s shooting production was Lauri Markkanen.

The eye test reflects these numbers, as Momcilovic sprints off of movement from NBA range, pulls up off of the dribble and feathers in Dirk-inspired fadeaways in the intermediate. Very few shooters his height and age compare to Momcilovic. That alone is worth something in an NBA where teams regard shooting so highly.

Momcilovic’s athletic translation will be the primary question for his NBA outlook. He’s fairly slow on both ends without much explosion or bend, evidenced by his poor athletic indicators (1.0% steal rate, 20.1 free-throw rate, zero dunks). We rarely see players with physical indicators this poor make the NBA.

Despite those major problems, Momcilovic defends at a positive level in college. His footspeed might limit his effectiveness on the perimeter at the next level, but he’s a stellar team defender who always positions himself to close gaps and help at the basket. That same feel manifests on offense, as Momcilovic is an effective secondary playmaker off of his shooting gravity.

We shouldn’t let imperfect statistical history blind us to outlier talent, and that’s what Milan Monmcilovic’s shotmaking is. I’ve never scouted a freshman prospect with these kind of extreme, outlier strengths and weaknesses. I’m willing to bet on Momcilovic’s unique traits and hope for physical development as his body matures, but he’ll be a fascinating case to track throughout the season.

Matt Powers – Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Xaivian Lee needs to improve to become an NBA player, and perhaps significantly so. This is not ideal for a rising junior in a minor conference, but I believe there are reasons for trusting Lee to do just that.

First, Lee is young for his grade, as only 20 years old. This is important as he is still on the steep side of the aging curve, if not as steep as ages 18 to 19 or 19 to 20. This is also important because Lee’s biggest flaw, without a doubt, is being only 165 pounds at most recent measurement.

Adding that weight will elevate the stellar craft and technique we’ve already seen Lee display on a regular basis. It’s good he’s in the Ivy league where he has room to fully experiment despite the lack of weight, as he’s able to create large margins in which to operate with his elite shiftiness.

Lee had more drives than any of the 2023 drafted NCAA guards. While this is surely aided tremendously by the poor competition, I can defend the stat still in a few ways. 1.) The degree of outperformance, 67% higher than his peers’ averages, 2.) His performance kept up against higher comp. In fact, he even played better inside the arc (50% -> 55% from two) and nearly led the conference in RAPM versus top 100 competition. 3.) He tested very well at the G League Elite Camp, taller than expected (6’2.75” without shoes, acceptable for a point guard), among the best at agility testing and showing off a surprising 36.5” max vertical.

Now, let’s get to the actual basketball. Lee is a dribble-pass-shoot guard who also blocked more shots (14, a lot for 6’2.75”) than all of Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Rob Dillingham and KJ Simpson combined. He plays more physically than your everyday slight guard, also excelling on the defensive glass where he was second on the team in rebounds. He seems closer to a very good shooter than an elite one, with 34% from three, 80% from the line, 34% from midrange and 62% at the rim splits. But every one of those is improved from the year before, and, again, there is reason to believe he will grow beyond. The rim finishing in particular is very promising, in the 82nd percentile for layup efficiency on 11 layup attempts per 100 possessions.

Additionally, Lee’s technique is very strong. He is a weapon both on and off ball due to masterclasses (for age) of timing, footwork, deception, hand movements. His top play types showcase that, being above average efficiency in the following actions: spot up (119 possessions), PNR handler (88), handoffs (66), isolation (62), transition (55), cut (30). That’s a healthy diet you can plug and play into any offensive style. This play style flexibility is only enhanced by his sense of experimentation.

Technique, combined with age, is latent value. It is the key building block to development (link Cason Wallace piece) that Lee can rely upon time and again. Don’t be surprised if he looks like a first round pick come December.

Beyond the RK – Jeremy Roach, Baylor

Transferring from Duke with an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to players who competed during the COVID-19 pandemic season, new Baylor guard Jeremy Roach knows how to handle the pressure when the lights shine brightest. With the Blue Devils, Roach started 83% of his 130 games over four seasons, advancing to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the 2nd round in 3 March Madness appearances, bringing the ying in experience to the Baylor backcourt to the yang of the sensational freshman walking onto campus for the first time in VJ Edgecome. With VJ expected to fly around the court as a north-south downhill force of nature out of the gates, what can Baylor fans expect from the other newcomer guard joining the squad this season?

Jeremy Roach, 6’1”, fits the strong mold of Baylor Guard Past with good two-way instincts to make winning plays on defense while staying on attack mode on offense with an efficient all-around game and good feel for running pick-and-roll and ISO sets to create open looks for himself and teammates. Jeremy uses tight ball control handles and sound quick burst body control to beat his initial defender, rise and fire for a jumper, or drive into the paint for a finish at the rim or kickout to the 3pt line. Jeremy’s lethal floater comes in handy as a deadly weapon to keep drop defenses honest when driving at the rim, using mean stop-start hesitation dribble moves, sound hop step footwork, and clean bump-and-finishing packages in the paint to draw AND1 fouls. When Roach catches a rhythm pulling up for tough elbow jumpers and 3pt shots off the dribble, he becomes hard to contain for any defense he faces.

Roach shows effort on the defensive end taking charges, reading passing lanes to jump gaps and use quick hands for deflections, and not giving up on plays by contesting shots from behind even after being beat on the perimeter. Forcing turnovers and flipping fast breaks on their head creates quick and easy 4pt swings for his team. Jeremy will lift his team for entire stretches as everyone feels his presence in every possession on both sides of the floor. In a close win over Xavier on Nov 25, 2022, Jeremy Roach took over in the clutch for Duke as the game slowed down; quieting the crowd at every turn; dominating as on-ball scoring creator; initiating P&R variations with two screeners in Horns and Double-Drag; scoring at all three levels from all over the floor; drilling tough shot after tough shot; showing supreme decision-making feel.

Roach has improved his efficiency across the board in his time in college, nearly cutting his turnover percentage in half over a four year span, with impressive development since his sophomore season, rising from a 32% 3pt shooter in Year 2 to a 43% 3pt shooter on the same number of attempts in Year 4. His overall impact has risen from 0-1 BPM in his first two years to 3.1 BPM as a junior and 7.2 BPM as a senior, with a huge jump on the offensive side to 4.5 OBPM, most likely due to increasing overall efficiency, reducing turnovers, and getting to the line more often.

In his 2023-24 season at Duke, Roach took 32% of his shots at the rim, converting 58% of his 113 FGA in that range. Able to get his shot off from anywhere on the floor, Jeremy spreads his shot attempts out evenly with 33% being 2pt jumpers (116 FGA) and 36% coming from beyond the arc. (126 3PA) Shooting 84% FT% at the line, 43% 3P% from deep, and 59% TS% as a scorer, Roach brings efficient scoring versatility.

Between his smooth floater, efficient shooting at the line and from beyond the arc, defensive instincts, offensive feel, and overall efficient scoring versatility, Jeremy Roach shows many promising touch indicators for future scoring and shooting development while flashing potential two-way impact that could translate to his upcoming final season in college and help him pave a path to the next level, the NBA.

Roshan Potluri – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

I can understand, you’re probably wondering, “I’ve seen him on a couple of mainstream boards where he’s in the late lottery range. Why is Collin Murray-Boyles in a roundtable on the most underrated returners for the 2025 draft class?” Even with the pre-season hype around the sophomore, I believe he is underrated because he should firmly be in the discussion in the top 5 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at why:

Murray-Boyles had an extremely productive season in his first year with the South Carolina Gamecocks, especially for someone who will be 20.03 on draft day: mere months older than incoming freshmen V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Statistically, the production was eye-popping. He was only involved in 45.7% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor, yet he posted a BPM of +9.5 and a RAPM of +6.1 which are high for a freshman. Standing at 6’7″, he is undersized as a center. Despite this, he produced a 61.6 TS%, 12.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 17.1 AST%, and over 20 dunks for the season. Murray-Boyles may be undersized, but he functionally produced on the court to a degree that compares to other high-profile 7-foot freshmen like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, Evan Mobley, and Karl Anthony Towns.

Another example of his statistical excellence: the only freshmen since 2008 to ever record above a 5 BPM, 60 TS%, 15 DREB%, 10 AST%, 2 STL%, and 20 dunks are Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

While the production speaks for itself, what does Collin Murray-Boyles truly excel at and why is that worth a potential top 5 selection? The answer lies in his dominant processing on both sides of the ball.

With his feel, high-level strength, balance, and hand-eye coordination, Murray-Boyles brings tenacious defense at the rim and guarding out in space. He’s able to take away a ballhandler’s breathing space with his combination of stifling length, strength, and ground coverage. Murray-Boyles excels as a rim protector, leveraging his massive standing reach and outstanding hand-eye coordination to effortlessly erase shots at the rim. Whether it’s as the primary anchor or rotating over from the weak side, his presence as the rim is undeniable.

The quick decision-making is apparent on the offensive side of the ball as well. He’s able to spray passes to find advantage situations whether it is out of post-ups or DHOs. Oftentimes, he’s able to open up new scoring opportunities just due to the incredible speed and placement that he delivers these passes with. Murray-Boyles does have his flaws with his shot and his size as a big but he has the pathways to become more of a ballhandler and scale as a forward offensively. His potential as a ballhandler is evident in the high school film, although he’s more reliant on getting to his left as a driver. He struggles with ball control and pick-up points when using his right, but his exceptional strength allows him to carve space on drives, compensating when his handle falls short.

The major question with Murray-Boyles’ NBA projection is his shot. I understand the hesitancy, as he’s only shot five 3’s and 67.4% from the charity stripe in his freshman year. While these numbers are poor, from a projection standpoint Murray-Boyles has improved on his touch numbers year over year and has had more shooting volume in his high school career. For context, he shot 51% from the line at Adidas 3SSB in 2022, 63.2% at Wasatch Academy his senior year, and now in college, that number has risen to 67.4%. He shows great touch on non-rim 2 attempts as well, shooting 41.3% with the Gamecocks. The high school and AAU sample only supplements this idea, shooting 53.5% on 28 runners and hooks the year before college. On tape, there’s good energy transfer and fluidity in the mechanics of his face-up jumpers which is a wide majority of his shooting sample in high school. For a player that’s considered a non-shooting big, Murray-Boyles has taken a moderate number of midrange jumpers between his senior year of high school and final year of AAU shooting 50% inside the arc on 22 attempts.

The complete lack of these jumpers within and beyond the arc at South Carolina can be attributed to his role as a screen and roll big. Murray-Boyles needs to work on improving his volume and touch further, but the growth over the past couple of years in tandem with his impressive hand-eye coordination gives me confidence that he can get to a respectable level by the end of his rookie scale deal in the NBA. 

Overall, Murray-Boyles can be an upper-echelon defender in the NBA with his physical traits and feel, showing signs even as an 18-year-old where he would orchestrate South Carolina’s entire defense from the backline. With his sophomore year at South Carolina, his draft stock will be determined by how his budding offensive skills improve, but with what he’s done so far and his feel for the game, I have no reason to believe he can’t reach those heights in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Larry Golden – Kam Jones, Marquette

In the NBA, the game forever evolves due to teams changing playstyles and other teams trying to copy what the successful teams are doing. In order for teams to meet their most potential they must find players to perform well in different roles pertaining to their team. The key is finding players in the draft that can come in and fit right into certain roles and maybe their skill level allows for a multitude of roles. Kam jones is a player in this upcoming draft that I believe can come into the NBA and make things happen because of his utility both on the ball and off.

Last season Kam Jones shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 239 attempts and 109 of those were off the catch making those at 39.4% clip. His shooting is what will make his life easier in the league while drawing closeouts and getting two-feet in the painted area. When watching Jones play he has a good feel for making the next right connective passing read. When the defense failed to make a rotation or if the rotator was a bit late, Jones made them pay finishing at the rim at a 67% clip. I was a little underwhelmed with his percentage from the mid range area(, but in the nba threes and layups are the goal and he made both of those at a great rate.

Secondary ballhander is the role I really see for Jones at the NBA level who can take on some pick and roll reps on the second side of the floor. Jones was used in pick and roll 43% of his usage and ranked in the 85th percentile. His combination of handle and size for the position allows for him to see the floor a bit better and the handle is tight enough to squeeze through congested spots on the floor.

AJ Carter – Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama

Clifford Omoruyi has been well established as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, anchoring a Rutgers defense that has been top 25 in the country each of the past two years before transferring to Alabama this offseason for his 5th year of college. He’s a classic backline rim protector with good length (6’9 barefoot, 7’6 wingspan), athleticism, and a lean but well built frame that can hold up against physicality. 

Omoruyi uses these physical tools to dominate around the rim defensively, finishing 3rd in the country in block percentage at 12.7% last season (via KenPom). He can occasionally get himself in foul trouble but is for the most part fundamentally sound defensively, prioritizing being in the right position over chasing blocks. Omoruyi is also a very capable P&R defender, having both backline rim protection ability with enough agility to cover ground when asked to play more aggressively. He isn’t what you would classify as a “switch big” but generally holds up well enough when defending in space to not get exploited and has shown flashes defending on an island against smaller guards. Omoruyi is also capable of finishing off possessions as a defensive rebounder, posting a strong DRB% of 23.7% for his college career. 

As good as he is defensively, Cliff’s lack of versatility on the offensive end is what has prevented him from getting serious hype as a draft prospect thus far. He can score around the rim at an adequate level, but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He isn’t a threat to score outside the paint and lacks touch on floaters or push shots. Omoruyi also has a paltry 0.4 AST/TO ratio for his career, and hasn’t really shown any progress in that department across his 4 years in college. It’s worth noting that Rutgers has been mostly abysmal offensively for Omoruyi’s career there, and play finishing centers like him are particularly context dependent, often needing to play off of strong creators to be effective – something Rutgers has sorely lacked. 

There’s a little room for hope that Cliff can show more progress playing in what should easily be the best offensive context of his career at Alabama this season, but for the most part we already know what he is – and there’s nothing wrong with that. The offensive limitations put a cap on the ceiling of what type of NBA prospect he can be, but he’s such a good defensive anchor that the bar he has to reach on the other end is pretty low. With just a little bit of improvement to his skillset you can see the pathway to him being a useful NBA backup center, making Cliff Omoruyi someone worth monitoring as a prospect this season. 

Tyler Wilson – KJ Lewis, Arizona

KJ Lewis is a slashing guard built for playoff basketball. In an NBA that seems to grow taller and shoot better with every summer, the words “slashing guard” and “playoff basketball” don’t feel like they belong in the same sentence. Slashing guard? You couldn’t find a wing who can shoot? Range, in both wingspan and scoring threat, has become the conventional draft ethos of the modern day. With that said, might I interest you in a Strong Safety instead?

The sell with KJ begins at his defensive impact. He is listed at 6’4 210 and plays like a moving fire hydrant. There is a Naismithian quality to his game that is undeniable, an intersection of strength and agility that resembles an NFL defensive back more than a two guard. He is able to stand up forwards in the post while smothering smaller guards on the perimeter. The ability to remain strong while sliding around the court is a skill in itself. His feel as a help defender and comfortability in switches was great. Outside of occasional bouts with over-physicality, it was hard to come away with anything substantively negative to say on the defensive side of the ball. KJ was an incredibly effective defensive player as a freshman, in a high major conference, at 19 years old.

In recent years, the going has gotten tough in the National Basketball Association for defense-first guards. The threshold of NBA quality offense has grown so incredibly high that it has become nearly impossible to survive if you are not a credible threat to score the basketball. Lewis’ freshman year usage rate of 16.4 is incredibly low for a potential NBA prospect, particularly a guard. The fact he was a relative non-threat from beyond the arc (34% on 3.4 attempts per 100) does not help matters. The path towards NBA minutes as a low usage non-shooting shooting guard is incredibly thin.

While Lewis did not threaten defenses as a shooter last year at Arizona, there is genuine reason for optimism. He shot 79% from the line in college and despite uninspiring numbers around the rim and in the midrange, his tape going back to Duncanville and the 3SSB circuit shows real touch around the rim with flashes of a functional jumper off the dribble. Shot development is an imperfect and unpredictable science, but the foundation is there for steady growth over time.

As a slasher, Lewis’ athleticism shines yet again with the ability to blow by defenders, take bumps and finish through contact. With an unrefined handle, he was best attacking in a straight line or out of an advantage as a freshman, but his coordination and athleticism allow for a long developmental runway as a creator. KJ was a wrecking ball downhill in high school, and on an Arizona roster that lost nearly all of their starters (sans the immortal Caleb Love) there should be more room for him to explore the studio space as a driver. 

What makes KJ Lewis such an intriguing prospect is his combination of athleticism and feel. That, my friends, buried at the very end of my monologue, is the key to Lewis’ pitch as a prospect. He anticipates actions on defense, acts with decisiveness, takes care of the ball, and reads the floor well as a passer, all while being the best athlete on the court. He is versatile not only in his physical capabilities, but his ability to make quick decisions while playing a physically versatile role. As a freshman, we saw that manifest primarily on the defensive end of the floor, but it is exactly what makes the gamble on his offensive upside so appealing. 

Ahmed Jama – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Despite a late cycle surge onto draft boards this past cycle, 6’6 Colorado State wing Nique Clifford surprised many by returning to school for his 5th and final season of college basketball. Riding the wave of an impressive tournament showing, Clifford was given as good a chance as any veteran college player to work his way into serious draft consideration in a draft class mired in uncertainty. In an attempt to reverse engineer Clifford’s decision to return in lieu of remaining in the draft, I referenced Barttorvik.com to find statistical comparisons to Clifford’s previous season. In Bart Torvik’s 17 season database, Clifford is one of three players to fulfill the statistical query of Defensive Rebounding% ≥ 20; Assist/Turnover Ratio ≥ 1.5; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 2; 3PA/100 Possessions ≥ 5; Dunks made ≥ 20. The other two players being TCU’s (now Oklahoma City Thunder) Kenrich Williams and former New Mexico State Aggie Johnny McCants. Unsurprisingly all three players performed nebulous roles, as undersized bigs. The statistical company Clifford keeps is pertinent to his decision to return, because in my opinion, Clifford and his camp recognized unorthodoxy, in NBA decision maker’s eyes, is synonymous with risk. Whether or not this calculation was correct, returning to college has positioned Clifford as one of the best prospects in the country this season. 

Clifford’s unique brand of production is, in my opinion, a byproduct of his high school career, where he played as an undersized big. Despite Clifford measuring at only an 8’6 standing reach at the NBA Combine, the same as 2024 draft entrees Stephon Castle and AJ Johnson, Clifford ranked 45th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. This relentlessness on the glass was made possible by Clifford’s dynamic leaping ability, and more specifically his minimal load time on jumps. Clifford’s exceptional leaping ability, paired with his timing crashing the glass, allows him to contribute as a rebounder in a way virtually no other players his size are. While Clifford’s offensive rebounding rate of 4.5% is comparatively underwhelming, I believe this is a byproduct of Colorado State’s emphasis on limiting opponent transition opportunities at the cost of offensive rebounds. While they ranked 120th in defensive rebounding rate in the country, Colorado State was 302nd in offensive rebounding rate. Clifford’s internal clock as a rebounder manifests as a defender as well, where he’s able to fill a variety of roles, from hounding smaller players at the point-of-attack, chasing shooters off off-ball screens, and making long rotations as a backline defender and providing supplementary rim protection. 

As much confidence as Clifford’s unique basketball background and athletic traits give me, ultimately for a player his size to succeed in the NBA his shot will need to develop into a reliable skill. Clifford logged a pedestrian (relative to his position) 6 3PA/100 possessions this past season. However, his underlying shooting numbers provide reason for optimism. On 82 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts Clifford shot 41.5%, and his solid 38% on pull-up two’s only further substantiates Clifford’s potential as a reliable floor-spacer. Additionally, Colorado State’s playstyle elucidates Clifford’s underwhelming 3-point volume. As effective as Colorado State’s offense was with its given talent (61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart torvik), its identity was almost entirely defined by motion heavy Princeton concepts, and this scheme in my opinion came at the cost of spot-up 3 attempts. Playing in almost exclusively 5-out alignments, a vacated paint enabled CSU to finish as perhaps the best cutting team in the country (95th percentile in cutting volume and 99th percentile in cutting efficiency per Synergy). Comparatively Colorado State finished in the 69th percentile in catch-and-shoot frequency. What makes Princeton offenses so reliable is how their concepts allow teams to generate efficient offense often in lieu of traditional ‘advantage creator’, however this emphasis on movement and a ‘creation by committee’ approach can come at the cost of clean catch-and-shoot attempts. And when Clifford’s role specifically is taken into consideration, he often is CSU’s most consistent line-breaking threat as a cutter and ballhandler. 

All in all, Clifford’s previous production, when contextualized with his basketball past and current college role, paint the picture of a player capable of rapidly calibrating his game to fit an NBA role. With Colorado State graduating their top scorer and highest usage player from this past season, Isaiah Stevens, Nique Clifford is poised to cement himself as a need-to-know prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

Stewart Zahn – Grant Nelson, Alabama

Arriving in Alabama via transfer last season, Grant Nelson carried a fair amount of hype with him from NDSU, where he was not only highly productive but also showcased alluring skill and athleticism. With a talented cast of teammates in Tuscaloosa, Nelson took on an entirely different role with the Tide, a role that only further highlighted his versatility. 

No longer a Bison and one of the immediate primary offensive options, Nelson adapted very well to a more supplementary role with Alabama (to be fair, a very well-spaced context). The profile of Nelson’s individual scoring opportunities drastically changed, with his post-up and isolation frequencies slashed (21.1% of opportunities to 5.3%, and 15.6% to almost nothing – 2.2% respectively). To his credit, Grant took it in stride and committed to his role, shifting his focus onto the more off-ball aspects of his position, such as spot-ups, screening/rolling, cuts and transition. In a fast-paced environment like Alabama, Nelson nearly doubled his transition frequency, and Coach Nate Oats even allowed him to run some PnR’s and DHO’s throughout the season. The ball-handling and passing both seem to clear his positional thresholds. Playing large amounts of minutes at center, while not his traditional position, Nelson displayed great technique as a roller. His rolls were fluid, his slips were quick and timely, and his PnP game was a crucial element to Alabama’s patented play-style and spacing. All of this is to say that Nelson’s game appears to have great malleability to provide whatever a team may need from their forward. 

Nelson’s efficiency in most play-types is quite good, with one exception: the 3-point shot. Even as a career 75% free throw shooter (81% last season) with a decent stroke, Nelson has yet to solidify himself as threatening perimeter shooter. Capable, with just enough volume to be respected, Nelson still has plenty of work to do to iron out his shot and turn it into a real weapon. Attacking closeouts is definitely in his wheelhouse as a ball-handler, and a proficient or even average shot from the outside would really open up the court to his driving ability. He even dabbled in some pull-up shooting out of PnR’s, and while the results weren’t great, he would make the correct read to shoot it, and that was encouraging to see.

Defensively, Nelson again was playing out of position for much of the year. It was necessary for Alabama to have their most potent offensive lineup, and Grant held his own on the other end. Undersized as an NBA center (and not what he will be asked to do at the next level), Nelson did exhibit pretty good understanding of positioning himself in relation to the roller. When covering PnP’s, Nelson’s mobility allowed him to get out to the perimeter for worthwhile contests. As the primary rim protector a lot of the time, the awareness, anticipation and reactivity Nelson demonstrated was pretty compelling, and he would use his length and timing to finish the job with a block. That should translate well to his more suitable position as a forward and thus a weakside rim protector, potentially contributing with some additional opposition at the rim. Also a serviceable perimeter defender for his position, Nelson checks a lot of boxes defensively. On top of all that, Grant was hard-nosed as a rebounder all year, and he earned himself Coach Oat’s Hard-Hat award ten times, tied for the most on the team. 

While his stats reflect a quieter year than at NDSU, Nelson proved himself a multi-faceted player at Alabama, with room to improve particularly as a shooter, which would have an amplified effect on the rest of his game. He will be striving to validate last season, and he will have the chance to encompass and maybe even shed the “underrated”  tag throughout the Draft cycle.

Avinash Chauhan – Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Motiejus Krivas is a big dude with some serious skill. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him dominating college basketball in the near future.

Let’s start with the bad: Krivas could very well be at the horrific intersection of non-shooting poor finisher and limited defensive upside. He shot a middling 58% at the rim last year, and more worryingly, lineups with Krivas at the 5 consistently scored worse at the rim than with the starter, Oumar Ballo. Arizona shot 4% worse at the rim with Krivas on the floor, and of Arizona’s 5 most common lineups, the two with Krivas fared by far the worst at the rim. Part of this swing is that he was backing up a pretty monstrous rim finisher in Ballo, but it’s pretty inexcusable that Arizona shot just 54% at the rim with Krivas on the floor. He may also appear to be low feel, averaging a whopping 6.1 fouls per 40 with a measly 4% assist rate, he took zero threes on the season, and perhaps worst of all, he garnered just a 3.4% block rate in 20 conference games. If you’re a non-spacer who does not contribute to positive rim scoring, you foul incessantly, and you’re unable to effectively pass or shoot OR protect the rim, what exactly are you doing on the floor?

But while we have 439 minutes of Krivas’s NCAA sample, we also have a 637 minute sample at FIBA U19/U18 Euros/U20 Euros, and 1000 minutes playing for Lithuania’s Zalgiris. Krivas wasn’t terrible in NCAA by any stretch, with a respectable 3.4 BPM in 36 games and an overall 4.5 lineup net rating across all competition. But Krivas was genuinely ridiculous in a number of important international events, and it would be foolish to throw away all the data we have for a low minutes NCAA single season sample.

Let’s talk about the shooting. It sounds pretty insane to say this about a guy who attempted ZERO threes in the NCAA season, but Krivas seems like a decent bet to get some threes up this year. First off, Krivas actually has a decent track record of 3P shooting volume in the past: he’s averaging about 1 3PA/40 across 28 FIBA games, and he put up 61 threes across his final two seasons in Lithuania. Now for the fun stuff: Krivas is a ridiculously good free throw shooter with notable volume (especially considering he is a FT drawing machine). He shot 73% FT in his final season in Lithuania (139/191), 70% at FIBA (78/112), and he’s coming off a 78% FT season at Arizona (49/63). What’s more impressive is that Krivas has progressively become a bit of a touch god around the rim, with a strong diet of runners and hooks sprinkled throughout heavy post up usage. Across his FIBA U20 tourney this summer + Arizona, a whopping 17% of his total shots have come on hooks, making them on a staggering 58% (18/31). Bart has him at 13/29 on long 2s at Arizona.

To reiterate, we’re talking about a 7’2 mf who was putting up 3s in Europe as a teenager, is pushing the high 70s FT on extremely great volume, and has the proclivity to take and make hooks at a high rate. And he’s still technically a teenager. Again, it’s never a great idea to bet on a guy who literally took no 3s in an NCAA season. But shooting dev seems uniquely feasible for this particular case.

Personally, I don’t care too much if he shoots or not, since he’s also an absolutely insane rebounder. Krivas is coming off a 14.7% OREB/22.8% DREB season in NCAA: there have been only 9 drafted players since 2008 to match those numbers across their career. It gets crazier: Krivas averages the most rebounds per 40 in the TWENTY EIGHT YEAR HISTORY of the U18 Euros (10+ mpg). His 21.8 rebounds per 40 is well ahead of 2nd place Enes Freedom (20.2), with Usman Garuba (18.6) and Marc Gasol (17.7) not too far behind. Again, pretty much every good Euro prospect has played in the U18 Euros, including so many notable bigs since 1996. It is an absolutely huge deal that he is the most productive rebounder on a minute basis in the entirety of available data for this tournament. 

He has similarly crushed the U20 Euros and Lithuania Pro League: he put up an unreal 19% OREB and 28% DREB across 48 games of LKL+NKL. He isn’t a Zach Edey/DeJuan Blair level rebounding prospect given the lower comp level, but Krivas really isn’t THAT far off. Throw on his massive 7’5 wingspan, and Krivas is pretty easily the best rebounding prospect in the class if he declares, and should be one of the best rebounders in the league from day 1.

Rebounding is often a measure of physicality, but in Krivas’ case, I think it’s a unique look at his unreal anticipation and impressive feel for the game. Again, his 4.2% assist/1.4% steal/6.1 FC may seem horrifying, but make no mistake: Krivas has a legitimately great feel for the game. This is a guy who has shown a history of racking up steals at a pretty great rate for his size: across ~ 100 Lithuanian league games, he was above 2% steal. He averaged ~ 1.5 steals/40 across all FIBA tourneys. Much of this is just being at the right place at the time: he’s able to anticipate reads through gaps and use his length to make easy pickoffs. But he’s also a legit great passer. He can make pretty solid reads out of the post, though he can be overambitious and thereby turnover prone (>17% TO in 100 NKL/LKL games).

But his passing feel is especially demonstrated through his FIBA numbers. Despite a middling 0.7 A:TO in FIBA and 4% assist rate in NCAA, Krivas has put up 12.5% assist, 20.4% assist, and 14.2% assist in his last 3 FIBA stretches. And before you question the value of FIBA Euros in ascertaining playmaking upside, consider an all time passing development case in Domantas Sabonis, who was a complete non passer in all NCAA and European pro league games but had a 7 game stretch where he was a productive primary initiator for Lithuania’s FIBA U18 team. With a consistent steal and assist track record, coupled with his sheer size and length, Krivas has a pretty cool combination of tools and feel that could lead to seemingly unexpected offensive development.

The list of strengths is getting a bit ridiculous. This is a dude who can rebound at an Edey-lite level, potentially shoot, generate steals and assists, and has one of the strongest FIBA production profiles ever. After all, he was 35 PER at U18 Euros, 35 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney), and 37.6 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney). 

It’s probably important to reiterate that Mr. Krivas is a 7’2 individual with a giant 7’5 WS. I once wrote about the history of underclassmen who measured at the NBA combine with a WS over 7’4 WS. It is an insane list with an insane hit rate. Oh, and he might sound like an uber slow Euro big with painful verticality and terrible lateral movement. Well the verticality is probably true, but Krivas legitimately moves very well. In fact, he measured at 3.55 s for the sprint and 11.88 for the agility drill, which was significantly better than his peer Aday Mara (4.04 and 12.81, respectively) and somewhat comparable to Pacome Dadiet (3.47 and 12.29) and Salaun (3.63 and 11.84). This is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison, since Dadiet and Salaun are definitely faster and prolly just didn’t know how to game the system effectively (hence their massive leaps at the combine), but their relative closeness to Krivas still underscores how well he can move. With his incredible wingspan, solid movement for size, and strong feel (adept steal and pass generator), Krivas theoretically shouldn’t be much of a defensive liability. In fact, most of his positive net rating was via defense: Arizona’s defense was 6.4 points better/100 possessions with Krivas on the court, and 7.7 p/100 against t100 comp. Much of this was through his rebounding goodness: opposing teams rebounded 3.3% worse and shot 3% worse at the rim with Krivas on the court. 

Herein lies the issue: Krivas had an undeniably positive effect on defense this past year, but most of that came from mitigating second chance points and less from actually blocking shots. Despite his 7’5 WS, he measured with a paltry 22 inch standing vert that would be amongst the lowest in the NBA. He clocked a pedestrian 12.9% HC dunk rate, and had just a 4% block rate this year. He’s definitely a physical player capable of backing down guys in the post en route to a heavy postup diet, and he’s put up ~ 50 FTr in nearly every context; but the lack of verticality is somewhat of a stifler. I think it’s fair to project a bit of improvement: he was hovering above 6% block in Lithuania, and he’s averaged a whopping 4 blocks per 40 (~10% block) across 14 FIBA games in the last two years. I am well aware that the NCAA and NBA are far different than FIBA tourneys (where bigs are much more prone to dominate given the differential rules) and Lithuania (LKL and NKL have “grown men” but its a pretty weak league generally). It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but is it not fair to project some improvements for one of the most productive youth FIBA careers we’ve ever seen?

Not every latent strength has to actualize for Krivas to return legit NBA value. European bigs tend to be a bit of a mystery box, even when we have significant track records for them in various youth simulacrums. The common thread does seem to be rebounding: from Sabonis, Mirotic, and Gasol to Freedom, Zubac, and Vucevic, there are tons of elite rebounding/productive Euro centers that found a role (because of their feel, productivity, and outlier rebounding). We know Krivas is productive, we know he’s going to bring immediate offensive and defensive value with his rebounding, and we know that he has exceptional length, agility, and feel for position. But what’s stopping him from reaching the path of these European contemporaries?  Is path to being a quasi-Vucevic possible for Krivas, especially since Vuc has a similar WS? Can he be a Nikola Mirotic type? If he stays in school a year or two more, can he emerge as a virtuoso passer on par with Sabonis and Gasol? Or will he never really put it together and have a Garuba type career? 

I think there’s some very conceivable flaws with Krivas, some that he may never be able to overcome. But I think we’re also completely undermining a sneaky upside tail, one that may be particularly manifestable given the departure of starter Oumar Ballo. 7’5 wingspans do not grow on trees, nor do prospects with long ass wingspans have the feel or outlier rebounding or historic production profile of Krivas. One of the greatest producers in FIBA youth history is potentially eligible for the draft, and it’s about time he’s given his due credit.

The post Roundtable: Underrated Returners appeared first on Swish Theory.

The first prospect I wanted to hit was one of my favorite prospects of 2021: Herb Jones of the Alabama Crimson Tide. I caught onto Herb late in the cycle, and was enamored with his defense and sneaky offensive skillset despite the sketchy shooting projection. But the more I dug into Herb, the more I fell in love with his game, and a piece of personal Draft philosophy was borne out of his Draft case. 

Taking a look back at the report from 2021 (which you can find at the end of this piece), one note for the physical profile is that while I described Herb’s build as “slender/lean,” it is certainly now evident that he was more wiry than slender. He was strong despite the thinner build, but I also think some of those attributes were captured in the movement skills section. The lateral ability was the most noteworthy aspect of his feet, but I probably underrated the footspeed. I think where Herb was particularly special was how adaptive his flexibility was for contorting and staying in front of ball-handlers. He had all the movement skills in the world to adjust his positioning fluidly and with such coordination. The other big translatable movement skill was the contact balance. Great offensive players in the NBA will put a shoulder into you and bump you off balance, and Herb was a master at absorbing the contact and remaining tight to the ball-handler, and that is something that has shined at the next level, where Herb has been a menace sticking to players.

Moving into the context of his Draft year, Herb was very decorated in his last season at Alabama, earning third-team All-American honors as well as dominating the SEC’s awards, being selected first-team All-SEC and receiving not only the SEC Player of the Year but also the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. And it was all well-deserved, competing at a high level on both ends of the floor. I also don’t think we should gloss over the fact that Herb was on the SEC Academic Honor Roll every year at Alabama, which I feel has to be an indicator of being a hard worker off the court as well. In retrospect, that should not be overlooked. On top of all that, Nate Oats praised Herb for his “lunch pail” and “hard hat” culture-setting. Point being, Herb had a lot of intangibles going for him, and he turn those intangibles into concrete stats: Herb is the school record-holder for charges taken for both single-season and career. It was clear that Herb was about all the right things. Intangibles are not the be-all end-all, but they should definitely reinforce the positive aspects a prospect brings to the table. 

Looking at the shooting profile at the time of the Draft, I think it was more than fair and so far pretty accurate that the shot projection was “somewhat unlikely/mostly stationary.” The free throw percentages improved over the course of his college career, but still landing at a woeful 60.4% career FT%. Herb has blown past that free throw hang-up, as he is now just over 82% from the line in the NBA on almost 500 attempts. I did not have that on my 2021 Draft bingo card, and I think is a testament to his work ethic (and also his fortunate landing spot in New Orleans with shooting coach Fred Vinson). But that is a literal free shot. I would certainly hope for professional basketball players to hit that 70% threshold. 

As for the 3pt shooting, Herb only had one season of semi-worthwhile volume, his last season, and it still wasn’t even that many attempts. But he did shoot his best percentage at a very viable 35%. Although it did follow the line of improvement he was showing at the free throw line, it was not to any convincing degree. Many of the attempts were dares, and the speed of the shot really took up all the time he was given. I was not sure about how he would be able to speed up the release once the efficiency improved enough, as he had a lot going on with his shot, with some funkiness and contrasting variables. Full credit to Herb for ironing it out; it may have made his career. 

The handle is what I felt was an underrated skill of Herb’s at the time. He exhibited plenty of competency putting it on the deck, and particularly in a variety of ways. Not only was Herb proficient attacking closeouts and pushing in transition, there were even PnR operations where Herb navigated a tight paint before making a play, which I found very impressive from someone of Herb’s height. Keeping that dribble secured and protected when you’re that tall can be quite a challenge, and Herb looked comfortable in that congested space. Not to say Herb should have been projected as a PnR operator (capable but not a featured part of his game), but seeing him handle like that was another indication of coordination, which was evident in his defensive movement mentioned earlier. 

Herb’s size and frame boded well in my opinion for how his finishing would translate to the league. Not the most explosive finisher, Herb’s length really aided him. He could dunk with ease without the need for premier vertical athleticism. The length also helped in his layup package, being able to extend for finishes. In addition to his length, Herb’s foot placement on the way to the rim were smooth, purposeful and adept. He was able to use footwork to find better finishing windows, and the creativity to get there was noteworthy and another indication of coordination. Still, there were a fair amount of worrisome aspects to his finishing; some finishes were a bit clunky and there were concerning instances of bad touch right at the rim. Despite those concerns, Herb still attacked the rim aggressively and drew fouls, which was also encouraging to see that his poor historical free throw numbers did not influence his aggression. The way that I tried to project Herb’s finishing was to base it around his lengthy 6’8 frame. The finishing numbers were not great, and the touch was unwieldy, but moving Herb into much more of a supportive role would mean Herb’s rim attempts would probably become a couple degrees easier, on top of having advantageous length to finish with (plus, any open finish for him could become a quick and easy dunk). He had already displayed an array of finishing capabilities, it just needed refinement. In the league, Herb has soaked up some efficiency by being a relentless transition threat, either running the lane or taking it coast-to-coast himself if not picked up. Also, Herb has done incredibly well turning defense into easy offense for himself. 

Moving onto the passing, Herb again showed versatility. He could make all the simple reads, but also make some higher difficultly passes. At his size, Herb could get the ball to a lot of different places on the floor, but one of his more impressive elements was the interior, tight-space passing. At 6’8, it is a challenge to attack the paint, have enough body control to attack without being careless, have quick enough processing to react to the help defense appropriately and complete the play with a pass on-the-move in a timely manner, on-target. That is a lot to ask of someone that height, and Herb passed with flying colors. Again, another point of reference of his coordination. 

This retrospective look at Herb Jones is going in order of how the report is laid out, and there has already been so much to like about his Draft case, and we are only now touching on his specialty: defense. The movement skills section seemed to underrate some of Herb’s capabilities, but I think those movement skills were so pronounced on the defensive end, particularly at the POA, where his foot placement navigating screens was pristine. In addition to how well he moved his feet, Herb was able to utilize his length to be disruptive, but what made that more impressive was how he remained in a deep stance while reaching. Many players lack balance when they go for those steals, exposing themselves badly when they miss. Herb was able to take those risks while staying solid and sliding his feet, which is truly an underrated athletic feat. Sitting in a stance is tiring enough, and adding the elements of live reactive defense while also going for steals is too much to ask for most players. Herb is not most defenders. 

At the time, Herb was lauded for his defense. And while lock-down defender was definitely in the cards for him, his off-ball defense was what made Herb such a complete defender, and a havoc to play against. Lots of players use time as an off-ball defender to relax. Herb was just as intense on-ball and off. Highly active on digs and swipes at drivers, and highly reactive to rotate, Herb plugged so many drives and discouraged many others. The floor shrunk with him on defense. He was maniacally helpful, seemingly never taking a moment off or letting the opponent get anything easy or for free. Herb was the epitome of intrinsic, playing with all the pride in the world. 

His defensive impact didn’t stop there, as Herb even helped out protecting the rim. His reactivity, timing and coordination culminated in some spectacular challenges at the rim. He was willing and unafraid of any consequences. High steal and block numbers throughout his college career, Herb was a devastating defensive play-maker. His competitive spirit could not be detained. 

Overall, it was difficult to remain completely objective with Herb at the time, as I am a sucker for a high-level defensive competitor, and the intangibles were so strong. As for most players, the swing skill was the shot, which I have been right and wrong about. I was wrong about the shot projection, as he has been a suitable spacer. I do believe I was right to be skeptical about the likelihood though, but also more importantly that the Draft argument for Herb was that if (BIG if) the shot hit, he is an immediate starter due to the elite defense. The Pelicans selected him at 35, but I do think his defensive talent warranted a higher Draft slot. What does Herb look like without a respectable shot? It is possible he is still an important piece to a competitive team as a defensive solution (although that may require pretty great spacing around him to compensate for the lack of shooting). Herb was truly up there in terms of best defender in the class, with the likes of defensive savant Evan Mobley. 

What I got most right:  the all-encompassing elite defense, well-rounded ball skills (outside of shooting) and coordinated movement skills

What I got most wrong:  the shot – turned out better than I expected, but in the realm of what I would have hoped for

The post Prospect Retrospective: Herb Jones appeared first on Swish Theory.

Born as a combo forward, Horry channeled, shaped his disruptive energy into a controlled power forward endowed with quick processing ability that shined at providing whatever his teams needed to compensate for what their stars lacked—a terrific recipe for a long and successful career.

However, it isn’t his skillset that made him such an interesting, magnetic player.

With his 7 rings, he is the most winning player of the modern NBA but was never considered a first-tier player throughout his career. This intersection of factors made him a polarizing figure in the collective imagination. On one hand, a segment of fans consider him a legendary player with almost superhuman qualities. On the other one, some just consider him one of the luckiest players ever.

Moreover, Horry forged his legend hitting important shots in crucial moments throughout his whole career. There’s certainly a luck component in his story and all the rhetoric about the clutchness can be cloying. But Horry’s “big shots” tell us a clear thing: He could stay on the floor in the most important possessions of a season. That’s not given, but rather a sign of how he didn’t have major flaws that opponents could exploit and play him off the floor.

So novices and romantics are bewitched by his “clutchness” and swagger. Some viewers discredit and despise him for what he represents in “Ring Culture.” Amid all this noise, Horry the player can become blurry.

What I asked myself was, simply: “what was he like on the floor?”

CRIMSON BLOCK BOB

After a decorated career at Andalusia High School ended with the Naismith Alabama High School Player of the Year award, Robert Horry committed to Alabama and enrolled as a freshman in 1988.

He went through a steady development and by his senior season he was the clear defensive anchor of the team and a solid offensive player, while Latrell Sprewell was the first offensive option.

During his career at Alabama, Horry looked like a prospect who would’ve become a Draft Twitter darling nowadays. He was a lanky, lengthy 6’9/6’10 forward who excelled as a team defender, could check players on the perimeter, and had a solid base of connective passing and shooting. And he looked like a White Men Can’t Jump (that ironically premiered during his senior season and its trailer was shown during the games’ broadcasts) or The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air character with his swagger and that sick fade haircut.

His defensive potential was obvious. He was consistently running up and down the court, defending centers and forwards, pressing full court on smaller players, rotating and deterring shots, flying around sending attempts into the stands. He wasn’t the most refined or the physically strongest defender but his energy and instincts mixed with his anticipation and great hand placement made him an overwhelming defensive presence.

Horry was a true stocks generator: he averaged 3.5 blocks and 1.5 steals during his senior season. Obviously, blocks and steals aren’t everything, but his numbers give an idea of the level of his disruptive defensive nature and overall dynamism. 

For reference, Shaquille O’Neal had 157 blocks in the 91-92 season, while Horry had 121. They were the only players in SEC history to finish a season with at least 100 blocks at the time.

(Yes, that’s Shaquille O’Neal blocked by Robert Horry)

Just for reference to further understand how special these numbers were, he still is Alabama’s all-time leader per career blocks at 286 in 134 games.

However, at Alabama, he was required to do a lot of the post-up stuff that was considered the bread and butter of every respectable power forward at the time. With his thin frame and his relatively weak lower body, this kind of traditional playstyle didn’t suit him.

Also, he wasn’t only a disruptive defensive force, he was also known for his unruly behavior. Indeed, he wasn’t always able to keep his temper in bounds and was prone to excessive fouls and complaints.

The towel thrown to Danny Ainge that marked the end of his brief and forgotten Suns experience or the infamous hip check on Nash (maybe he still had some resentment towards the Suns?) are two clear examples of his excesses on the court. However, maturing he became way more controlled than his early years.

At this point, we had begun to see Horry in his flexible, energetic defense. His offensive role was more unclear and would eventually be defined in the NBA.

HORRY, THE ROCKET

After his Senior season ended with a loss against North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Robert Horry was drafted with the 11th pick in the 1992 draft by the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets were headlined by All-Stars Hakeem Olajuwon and Otis Thorpe and were coming from a chaotic season in which they replaced coach Don Chaney with his assistant and Rockets legend Rudy Tomjanovich.

As a rookie, he immediately claimed the Rockets’ starting small forward spot in place of Buck Johnson who signed with the Washington Bullets as a free agent the previous summer.

Horry clearly was perceived as a defensive-first player early in his professional career. He had pretty simple tasks on offense but was probably lucky to find on his path a coach like Rudy Tomjanovich who believed in his perimeter potential anyway and didn’t try to confine Horry into a more traditional frontcourt role. Tomjanovich played a major role in shaping his offensive game in those early years.

While on defense he had important duties as a free roamer starting with covering the less dangerous forward on the floor, on offense Tomjanovich built for Horry an easier role founded on his energy and dynamism. He was contributing mostly through opportunistic scoring, cutting, and crashing the offensive glass with continuity.

Watching the tape I heard a comment from the broadcaster that expressed efficaciously what was Horry’s role in the Rockets’ offense at the time:

“Every time Olajuwon apparently is in trouble, Robert Horry is his bail-out guy, he’s always moving, slashing to the basket, cutting”

In 1994, Horry still played mostly as a small forward next to Otis Thorpe and Hakeem Olajuwon. Having a 6’9 lengthy defender at small forward alongside two other true big men raised the Rockets’ defensive floor. Indeed, they were second per defensive rating in 1993-94 at 101.4 in the regular season. And if we want to summarize that team, they were a defensive juggernaut almost completely dependent on Olajuwon on offense.

As a sophomore, Horry was already a well-established starter and played 33.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. It’s impressive how he was able to carry the burden of such a large and meaningful role that early in his career. It’s incredibly rare to find a sophomore able to do it on a contender.

A GLIMPSE OF FUTURE

This game-winning shot against the Magic in 1995 is just one of the many clutch shots that created Horry’s legendary fame and this single possession tells us a long story about the 1995 Rockets.

Hakeem Olajuwon, defended by a young Shaquille O’Neal, receives the ball in the low post with a well-spaced offense around him, draws the double-team, and kicks out to Robert Horry on the left wing for the game-winning spot up three.

That was their new reality.

But let’s start from the beginning.

It’s always hard to repeat success after winning a championship and the Rockets learned it in the first half of the 1994-95 season. After being undefeated in the first 9 games of the season, they went 20-16 and realized something wasn’t working anymore. Soon after a bad loss against the Clippers, the worst team in the league, they traded for Clyde Drexler who was on an expiring deal with the Portland Trail Blazers and explicitly expressed his interest to join the Houston Rockets.

On February 14, the Rockets sent Otis Thorpe, Marcelo Nicola, and a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for the 32 years old Clyde Drexler and Tracy Murray.

Drexler is a University of Houston alumn as well as Hakeem Olajuwon, a reunification was strongly desired by the longtime friends.

“I can’t wait for the first game, I really can’t. He’s the best player in the league, and it’s been a dream of ours ever since we left the University of Houston to play together again.”

Clyde Drexler to the Associated Press

Otis Thorpe was a meaningful part of the team that won the ring the season before and drastically changing your structure on the run requires a lot of courage. But that move paid off and put them and Hakeem on another offensive level.

The 3-point line, which was 23 feet 9 inches at its farthest point in ‘93/’94, was moved to 22 feet before the 94/95 season, and this allowed Tomjanovich and his Rockets to became one of the very first teams in NBA history (along with the Magic they faced during those Finals probably) to fully take advantage of three-pointers and not attempt them just as an extemporaneous solution.

They went from a .191 team Three Point Attempt Rate in 1994 to .267 in 1995, an important shift in their shot distribution.

They turned from a team with a traditional, tough, physically imposing playstyle with two bigs to a futuristic setting that allowed them to deploy several 4-shooter lineups around Hakeem Olajuwon.

Horry was the key to this evolution.

At this point, after a couple of seasons with limited attempts and results, he had become a reliable shooter that could knock down enough spot up threes to force defenses to pay attention to him.

Moving on from the 2-big structure and putting Horry at power forward, in a kind of primordial stretch-4 role, increased significantly the Rockets’ offensive ceiling. Otis Thorpe was a great player, an All-Star, but his lack of a long-range shot hurt the spacing and limited their offensive ceiling.

Horry was also crucial because he was an acceptable defender against many power forwards. During the ’95 Playoffs run, he was the primary defender of Charles Barkley, Dennis Rodman, and Horace Grant. Karl Malone was the exception. Against the Jazz, the Rockets were spending other less relevant players like Chucky Brown or Pete Chilcutt on a physical freak like “The Mailman,” while Horry was permitted to float on the other forward with the license to rotate and help at the rim.

The Rockets set the NBA record per attempted and made threes during the 1994-95 season. They attempted 21.4 threes per game and 22.7 per 100 possessions in the Regular Season. These numbers went up during the 1995 Playoffs: they attempted 22.0 threes per game and 23.6 per 100 possessions, making them at a 39.1% rate. These are more threes than what the Spurs attempted in their legendary 2014 run. We have to take into account that the three point line was closer to the rim in 1995 but that’s an incredible accomplishment anyway.

Teams just weren’t structured to cover that much ground defensively. And limit Hakeem Olajuwon with that much space around him was simply impossible. For example, the Spurs were a great defensive team and Robinson was arguably the best player in the league to try to stop them defensively but they were regularly lining up too many big bodies.

Ironically this was probably the most modern version of Robert Horry. At this point of his career, he was an agile help side defender with a 0.423 three point attempt rate. That’s the profile of someone that would thrive in today’s league, a profile with its outline seen in first-year player Taylor Hendricks, for example.

HORRY, THE LAKER

In 1996, Horry became the Rockets’ “sacrificial lamb” to meet Charles Barkley’s request to be traded to Rudy Tomjanovich’s team.

His forgotten experience with the Suns lasted only 32 games and ended with the infamous “Towel-gate” and a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers.

“I hated Danny Ainge, I’m not even gonna lie. I hated him. We beat them so many times when he was in Phoenix when I was with the Rockets. Mario Elie is one of my good friends, and in one of the playoff games, he took the ball out – Danny Ainge was a pitcher – he hit Mario in the face with the ball on purpose.”

Robert Horry on the Big Shot Bob Podcast

The duo composed of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal was pretty much identical conceptually to the Drexler-Hakeem duo. With Phil Jackson and his triangle, they probably even had a more traditional approach than the ’95 Rockets.

Does this possession remind you of the Olajuwon-Horry synergy?

In addition, Horry was a great performer for the Triangle Offense. The “triple post offense” is a position-less kind of basketball and ideally, every player on the floor should be able to play every fundamental position of the offense.

Horry’s skillset and versatility allowed him to play pretty much in every position of the offensive schemes. He excelled as the “weakside wing” thanks to his cutting and his intuition for offensive rebounds. His shooting and passing were well suited for the Key, Wing, and Top of the Key positions. The Post position generally was occupied by Shaq but he could be a decent performer on the run or when the triangle was changing the side of the court.

An example of the Lakers’ “Triangle” initial setting.

In this kind of offense, it was crucial to be able to throw decent passes to the post player, the vertex of all three of the triangles. Horry was a great entry-passer from every non-post position on the floor. He clearly developed this (once?) fundamental skill throwing thousands of passes to Hakeem Olajuwon.

In his Lakers experience, he wasn’t an actual starter anymore but still generally was part of the closing lineup.

He also proceeded in his transition into a more “traditional” power forward. He was bigger and his upper body looked stronger, though also made him less agile in space. This development was probably intended to make his life easier against the big power forwards of the early 00s.

He had more duties as a rebounder and as a screener; he wasn’t strictly a spot up shooter but he was allowed to put the ball on the floor if needed. That was probably the context where he had the most diversified offensive usage during his career.

Even the stats give us an idea of how his role changed compared to his Rockets seasons. His rebound percentages, his free throw rate, and his stocks percentages all saw a positive trend. What you would expect from a combo forward transitioning to a more strictly big man role.

His rebounding was on full display during his seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers. He used to set strong box-outs, with good technique and crafty use of his elbows on the edge of the rules and was pretty quick to recognize the angle of the ball after the rebound.

The matchup with Chris Webber was emblematic of his type of rebounding. Webber (an awesome, underrated player in my opinion) was more of an athletic rebounder, his box-outs weren’t always on point and Horry’s gave him trouble. In the 2002 Western Conference Finals, Horry averaged 11.1 rebounds per game with a 23% defensive rebound percentage compared to his career playoff average of 16%.

During his Lakers’ tenure, his game was refined from experience while his legs still had fuel left. In the early 00s, with the evidence of his pivotal role along Shaq and Kobe, his incredible ability to fill the gaps left open by the stars of his teams, the real x-factor of his career, became striking.

HORRY, THE SPUR

Robert Horry signed with the San Antonio Spurs in July 2003, at almost 33 years old, on the wane of his career. He couldn’t offer much more than 20 minutes per game consistently, he was slower and mostly a spot-up shooter at that point of his career.

However, he was a perfect piece in Gregg Popovich’s basketball idea, which has always been founded on ball sharing and individual processing, and still managed to have an impactful role for at least further 4 seasons.

“He does everything well. He can defend. He can run the floor. And — as we all know — he can hit big shots. We’re excited to add a player with his skills, experience, and leadership to our team.”

R.C. Buford commenting on Horry signing

From a skillset standpoint he was pretty much always the same but this was probably Horry’s most cerebral version. He made up for his athletic shortcomings with a high level of understanding and anticipation. He rarely committed major mistakes and his execution was almost flawless.

He was fundamental on Popovich’s chessboard to allow him to change identity on the run, going from the bigger starting lineups with two bigs (Nazr Mohammed first and Elson, Oberto later) to the lineups with Duncan at center. 

Ten years apart from that game-winning shot against the Magic, Horry made probably his most iconic shot in Game 5 of the 2005 Finals against the Detroit Pistons, a series-swinging moment that represented the ideal crowning of his career.

That game is a prime example of the late Horry and his overall (inexplicable?) nature.

He struggled defensively for three quarters against Ben and Rasheed Wallace’s physicality and provided a limited offensive contribution. Then he scored a three pointer, suddenly woke up from his torpor, and dominated the 4th quarter through rebounding, shooting, and attacking the always more pressing closeouts.

“He’s just Mr. Intangibles, he’s everywhere and you must pay attention because he keeps things alive under pressure on your offensive board”

Hubie Brown during the broadcast of Game 5 of the 1995 NBA Finals

BIG SHOT BOB, REASON & EMOTION

Trying to capture Robert Horry’s true essence is a challenge that puts a strain on the rational, analytic basketball viewer. His figure goes beyond what can be measured and quantified and can raise questions and doubts about our vision of basketball.

As we saw in this article, the majority of his success can be explained without the need to use vague, mystical terms like “clutchness.” Considering his skillset and his key tactical role, it’s easy to understand why he was so crucial for his teams despite his generally unimpressive raw numbers. And his futuristic ability to fill the gaps of his team (isn’t it what we generally require to power forwards nowadays?) that made him a desirable target for competitive teams completes the big picture here.

However, even the most rational observer can’t ignore the fact that he seemed to have a different drive, a different inner motivation (boosted by his increased relevance on the chessboard?) when the pressure was higher. He apparently had an internal flame that blazed the most whenever the lights shined the brightest, something more appropriate for a psychology essay than a basketball article.

And this part of his figure is probably what made him one of the most legendary, special, and loved “normal” players in NBA history.

The post FILLING GAPS – A Retrospective on Robert Horry appeared first on Swish Theory.

“How is he going to stick in the league?” is a question you hear every draft season as scouts, teams and fans alike begin the inexact science of prospect evaluation and projection. Every NBA draft prospect has a unique collection of skills, but it is their bread and butter that gets them into the league and minutes on the court. 

Success in the NBA is about singular excellence, even amongst its role players. While supporting skills are important and can be added over time, nearly every single player in the league has a single, defining skill upon which their on-court identity is based.

That skill slots a player into an on-court role or archetype, but its impact goes further than that. What separates star players from the rest is not just how effective their skill is, but their ability to leverage that skill for greater results. 

On a macro level, it is helpful to place players into archetypes. Basketball is a team sport with an ever-churning mill of player movement. Identifying the big-picture skills of a player and how that applies to your specific team construct is inarguably positive. At the same time, particularly in the case of teenage prospects, the labels of an archetype can be inherently restricting and reductive of their potential.  

For players entering the league an archetype is a big-picture term that defines your initial role and pathway to minutes, but a prototype is an outcome unique to each individual. In this piece we will dive into two prospects with an outlier combination of shooting and height. How does their skill project to an NBA floor, and how can they leverage that skill to find their own identity as a star in the league? Roll the tape and let’s dive in.

Brandon Miller

Archetype: Floor Spacer 
Catch and Shoot, Deep Range, Movement Shooter

Brandon Miller is one of the greatest shooting prospects we have ever seen at his size, that is an unimpeachable fact. Miller’s combination of age, height, three point volume and usage is nearly unprecedented, resulting in one of the most dominant offensive seasons in the country.

Miller came into the year billed as a smooth shooting scorer, but his success beyond the arc is what carried his value this season. A constant threat any time he was on the court, it often felt like no three was too deep for Miller, jacking up shots well beyond the NBA line on a regular basis. 

That version of extreme spacing, not just to the arc but feet beyond it, is incredibly valuable in today’s NBA. As offenses have begun to hunt threes more regularly, defenses (and their personnel) have improved in recovery. The extra few feet of space beyond the arc gives space for a cleaner look and a much longer path for the defender to take in any kind of help rotation. 

In transition, Miller is a threat as soon as he passes halfcourt, a master of pace and timing when running the floor. Miller has no issue outpacing defenses in transition but is often found within the thicket of bodies as they cross halfcourt. 

To some this may be a lapse in effort, but I see it as the subtle brushstrokes of a transition artist. As defenses scramble to contain the ball it is easy to lose track of shooters in a free flowing transition attack and Miller uses that to his advantage.

As the drive begins to develop Miller starts his approach, timing his arrival on the three point line in sync with the driver and positioning himself within the open space just as the defense pulls in towards the paint. That awareness of space and timing will result in a ton of easy buckets for Miller throughout his career. 

His excellence in timing is fueled by Miller’s ability to find center as he relocates around the perimeter, using pristine footwork beyond the arc to rise into his shot on-balance. Miller’s transition play and his ability to score out of DHO or off-ball screen actions should solidify his floor of value in the league as one of its most scheme-able tall shooters. 

Prototype: Morey-Ball Forward Initiator
PnR Operator, Drive and Kick, Ball Handling

The analytics “revolution” is a hotly contested topic, as is any topic claiming to be the answer of an unsolvable puzzle. Even in an uncertain environment, basic logic and math often go hand in hand. Threes are worth more than twos and the most efficient twos occur at the rim. What is the easiest way to get up more threes? Force the defense to rotate. How do you force the defense to rotate? Get to the rim.

The reason these “Morey-Ball” principals have worked to the extent they have is that its two core tenants, rim pressure and threes, are symbiotic. Spacing provides lanes for driving, rim pressure creates defensive rotations and open threes, rinse and repeat. 

More formulaic than creative, the math-ketball style of offense makes the game simpler while providing an unsolvable problem for defenses. Brandon Miller’s game represents much of that philosophical ethos with his red-hot shooting and burgeoning game as a drive and kick initiator. 

Miller averaged over two self-created rim attempts per game this season, an impressive number for a jumper-oriented wing scorer, and his growth operating out of ball screens as the year went along was incredibly impressive. 

Miller has a long slender build, but is a strength-based athlete. This presents a few challenges for Miller as a creator and has forced him to develop his craft as a driver rather than relying on burst or brute force. 

When operating out of ball screens Miller does a great job using misdirection, change of pace and wide-angle drives to manufacture lanes to the hoop, gradually growing in effectiveness as the year progressed. 

While Miller isn’t particularly “bursty” he has long strides and impressive strength digging out of pseudo-lunges as he unfolds his limbs attacking the paint.Combined with a long wingspan and a genuine willingness to initiate contact, Miller was a genuine threat attacking the basket in Alabama’s pace and space scheme. 

As a result of his continued growth as a driver, Miller began to draw not only defensive attention but defensive help. Standing at ~6’9”, Miller was able to easily see over the top of defenses to find shooters on the perimeter or bigs in the paint. Flashes of manipulation with his handle and passing angles were particularly encouraging, he does more than just hunt for his shot. 

This is what makes Miller such an intriguing proposition. He is one of the best shooters in the country that safely cleared the requirement for rim pressure needed to provide genuine impact. On a more effectively spaced court, the vision of Miller as an off-ball scorer that can operate as a secondary initiator, breaking down the defense and finding open shooters, is both a realistic and tantalizing projection.

Limiting Factors: Two-Point Scoring and Off-Ball Defense   
Space Creation, Finishing, Quickness

Creating offense is the name of the game for any potential star, and while Brandon Miller is not the quickest or shiftiest handler, he does a great job using misdirection and irregular stride patterns to beat his man and combat rim protector in the paint. His growth in this area was encouraging throughout the season, but it is worth noting Miller does not have the typical tools of your “star wing scorer”, relying more on subtle hesitation and craft. 

The actual results were mixed, with flashes of intriguing craft and moments of real worry. Ultimately, Brandon Miller shot 33/84 (39.3%) at the rim in the halfcourt this past season, a number that paints the picture of a disadvantaged rim threat. Beyond even finishing, getting to the rim is work, and isn’t something that works out every drive.

For skill-oriented initiators, having a reliable and creative mid-range game is an invaluable tool to help make up for a lack of undeniable rim pressure. Miller has a beautiful turnaround jumper he often resorts to off a broken drive, but there was little variety (or success) this year beyond that. 

The effectiveness of that shot is noteworthy, as is what makes it an effective option. The natural fade of a turnaround in the lane gives Miller a little extra space and a slightly elevated release point on his jumper. 

Despite his height and shooting talent, Miller shot 7/24  (29.2%) on pull-up twos in the halfcourt last season. His release point and lack of space creation tools (upper body strength or lateral quickness) narrowed his avenues for potential success within the arc. 

Midrange jumpers have to be easy for teams to let you shoot them, and that may prove to be a steep hill to climb. The lack of volume is surely a reflection of Alabama’s offensive scheme limiting mid-range looks, an easily dismissed red flag. The efficiency, namely the lack of comfort Miller showed operating within the confines of the arc as a shooter, is more noteworthy. 

Miller shot a higher percentage (32.9%) on dribble jumpers from three than he did from the mid-range, and that further clarifies the issue at hand. Beyond the arc defenders play further off, allowing more room for Miller to get his shot off. Within the confines of the arc that space shrinks, and when that happened Miller did not have the tools to create the space himself.

On the defensive end there feels like little to note. Miller is excellent at high-pointing rebounds in traffic and had a few highlight-reel worthy chase down blocks in transition, but beyond that the cupboard is relatively bare. He uses his length well in isolation and containing drives, but really struggles to navigate screens and move his feet with quicker guards. 

The off-ball defense is what stuck out to me as the largest pain point. Miller was good at anticipating rotations as a weak-side rim protector but the rotations themselves were often meandering in nature, a gradual shift of position rather than a succinct rotation. 

He doesn’t have the quick twitch athleticism to dig and recover out to shooters in an effective manner and is often left shuffling in no-man’s land closing out to shooters. Miller was often given the least threatening defensive assignment, making these struggles within his role more concerning. 

Without an easily translatable defensive impact, it is the magnitude of Miller’s offensive success that will carry his value. A high-tempo, five-out offense that prioritizes threes and rim attempts could help many of these issues, but there is a more specific context needed to maximize Miller’s offensive talent than your typical star wing creator. Even in an ideal team context, it will take intentional creativity to make things come together. The inherent conflict of a uniquely skilled prospect.

Jett Howard

Archetype: Floor Spacer
Movement Shooter, Off-Ball Movement, Pull-Up Shooter

The case for Jett Howard as a potential lottery pick is an easy one, and not dissimilar to Brandon Miller. There are not very many players listed at 6’8” that can get up threes on volume like Jett this past season. 

I have been told using 13 in a bart query is malpractice, but you can’t argue with the results. Freshman wings do not shoot jumpers at this kind of volume with this kind of success. There are certainly some areas for concern, even on the offensive end, but Howard’s projection as a floor spacer is about as clean as they come.

The first point I want to hit on here is the volume, not simply the number but rather how that number came to be. Jett was used at Michigan in a variety of different sets, but was most commonly found sprinting around the perimeter like a stretched out version of JJ Redick.

Howard thrived as a tough shot-maker, though more in the complementary scoring sense than an on-ball one. In a three-point oriented league, the ability to actually get up shots is an incredibly difficult and invaluable skill. Howard’s combination of shift, off balance shotmaking and quick release are the makings of a floor spacer that works in nearly any environment.

Beyond his off-ball excellence, Howard is a talented shooter off the bounce with the ability to adjust his release angles to account for contests. Close out hard? Howard has no problem relocating with the ball in his hands to get a cleaner look.  

His mechanics off the bounce are clean and the results show it. My thoughts on Howard always return to the same place: teenagers this size should not be this comfortable shooting the ball. This is not normal, but what exactly does that mean?

Prototype: Jumbo Scoring Guard
Pull-Up Shooter, Closeout Attacker, Ball Handling, Off-Ball Movement

The ultimate vision for Jett involves finding each and every way possible to weaponize his shot. At Michigan he was able to showcase some of that versatility, but it often felt like food was left on the table. With a usage rate of only 21.8, Jett Howard may be the first coach’s kid ever to not get enough on-ball reps.

With his height and fluidity getting into his shot off a live dribble, Howard was an incredibly effective pull-up scorer on volume that feels entirely too low. That same jumper malleability, contorting his shot to match the defender’s contest, is even more valuable within the arc. When the space shrinks up, Howard has the coordinated creativity to still get off a quality look. 

Actually making shots is the biggest hurdle for young shotmakers, yet Howard proved to exceed expectations in nearly every facet. Synergy has a new metric this year Synergy Shot Making (SSM) that tracks how a player shoots compared to the expected value of each shot.

For any one-season statistical sample, it is important to remember nearly every data point you use is subject to the biases of small sample size, particularly with shooting numbers. 

With that said, I would like to compare the samples of Jett Howard and Brandon Miller in different types of shot types and settings.

Jett’s “quite good” numbers off the catch pale in comparison to Miller’s astronomical season, but off the bounce was a different story.

Despite his billing and overall statistical profile resembling that of an off-ball shooting specialist, Howard’s game off the bounce was efficient in just about every playtype or spot on the court you could imagine. 

As I talked about with Miller, having a reliable midrange game to fall back on when a drive dies on the vine is incredibly useful, and Jett’s projection there is more encouraging than one would think. Miller is bound to improve here with some added repetition and strength, but at nearly an entire calendar year younger, so should Howard. While his actual volume of rim pressure was significantly lower than Miller, so was his opportunity. What wasn’t lower? His efficiency as a shotmaker. 

Howard is an A-1 shotmaking prospect at 6’8” that, at times, seems to be hiding in plain sight. Shooters at this size don’t come around often, and when they do they are almost always a seasoned upperclassman gradually increasing their volume. As a teenager, Howard is already there. Outlier talents tend to produce outlier results. 

If that happens? Howard has the tools as a passer to truly capitalize on elite shotmaking. He had a solid assist rate this year for an off ball wing of 12.9, but the flashes were incredibly enticing. As a reactive passer with a solid awareness of his surroundings Howard should thrive as a connector early in his career. If the self-creation is able to develop as he grows into his frame, Jett has the height and awareness to capitalize on it. . 

Limiting Factors: Rim Pressure and Defense
Strength, Explosiveness, Defensive Activity

On the concerns side, you have to start with the physicality. Howard was an all-time poor rebounder for his height and that showed on tape. He was habitually hesitant to get into the mix of bigger bodies in the paint, even with a height advantage. 

This is where his projection as a more guard-oriented wing than forward applies. Howard lacks much of the skills required to play the three or the four, from the above mentioned rebounding or a relative lack of weakside rim protection. 

As a guard, Jett did well chasing shooters around screens on the perimeter and using his size to recover once beat. He doesn’t have the quickest feet in the world and I certainly wouldn’t want to deploy him at the point of attack, but his lack of interior value defensively feels, to an extent, insurmountable. Finding a less harmful alternative may be a better option than trying to force a square peg through a round hole.

Jett moves his feet well on the perimeter, but I would like to see him use his length more effectively. He isn’t particularly slow laterally, but often looks like it by taking steps too small to keep up with his opponent. 

As a help defender his digs were rarely impactful, but his timing was solid. He isn’t incapable of recovering to shooters, and even flashed moments of good ground coverage, but is generally unpolished in that regard. Jett was a below average defender this past year, but with added weight and refinement a passable one feels within reach. A low but meaningful bar.

This lack of strength and explosive athleticism shows itself on the offensive end as well. Jett is methodical with the ball in his hands, similar to Miller, but generates significantly less downhill pressure on his drives. He struggles to handle bumps and turn the corner on defenders in an effective way, making him even more reliant on mid-range jumpers.

It is worth noting Jett was sidelined this offseason due to sprains in both ankles he suffered during the season. That is a major hamper on one’s lower-body athleticism, and a significant reason for hope going forward. Getting healthy certainly won’t turn Jett into a rim-pressure wing, but it should help lessen the gap he needs to make up in order to operate as a functional scorer with the ball in his hands. 

My ultimate question regarding Jett is just how negative is his lack of rim pressure? His ability to create quality looks at the rim on his own was resoundingly poor, even when accounting for the injuries he was playing through. Howard was more efficient shooting off the dribble than either he or Miller were laying the ball up this past year. 

How good does his mid-range game need to be to create gravity resembling rim pressure, and how can he use that to manufacture more attempts at the rim? Howard is not an unskilled finisher, but simply did not have the physical tools to get there this year. That isn’t going to get easier against bigger and stronger athletes, and his success will almost assuredly originate in skill and manipulation rather than force.

Outliers and Outcomes

In the grand scheme of things, Howard will need to add a significant amount of size and strength to have anything resembling an on-ball role. That is far from an impossible task, it is exceedingly normal for 6’8” teenagers to gain weight as they enter their twenties, but it will need to be significant. Howard and Miller will have a similar hill to climb in that respect, though Miller is much more comfortable handling physicality at this current stage.

That lack of physicality in comparison is reflected across the court from handling bumps to rebounding to screen setting. Miller may be the thinner build, but he is the more physical prospect, and that is what makes him a significantly safer bet.

The two are more similar than given credit, like opposite sides of the same coin. Miller’s advantage in physicality and base-level shooting create a much safer floor for his NBA value, but the hill from good to great is visibly steep. 

Jett on the other hand has no such floor, where his lack of strength and explosiveness leave him a man without a country defensively. That possibility is much more realistic than with Miller, but if Jett is able to get to the level of good, you might be surprised by how quickly he becomes great.

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