The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. This week, the Dallas Wings are under the microscope. After winning the first playoff game since moving to Texas, stability and positivity should overflow with the Wings.

If you believe that, you do not know the Dallas Wings. 

2022 Recap

Dallas, like New York, has been looked at as one of the teams on the precipice for a few seasons. After drafting Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally in consecutive drafts before adding the top two picks in 2021 (Charli Collier and Awak Kuier), Dallas looked to be building for the future. 

Last season, Kuier, Collier, and Sabally played a combined 200 minutes less (733) than Ogunbowale (941) last season. Sabally, as has unfortunately been common, missed plenty of time due to injury. The second-year bigs, however, struggled to gain the consistent trust of then-coach Vickie Johnson. 

The season turned for the better when they moved offseason acquisition Teaira McCowan into the starting lineup full-time. Before the move, Dallas was 10-13 on the season with offensive e ratings of 101.6. Over the last 13 games, the Wings won eight and improved to an offensive rating of 110.0, second best in the league over that span. 

Allisha Gray, Kayla Thornton, and Isabelle Harrison brought their typical veteran excellence to a team that needed every bit of it. Marina Mabrey became a full-time starter and a knockdown sniper. But there was always something hanging over the team. A cult of personality, if you will. 

Arike’s World, For Better or Worse

Arike Ogunbowale is an exceptional offensive talent. She has never finished outside the top five in scoring, leading the league in her second season. Disruptive in passing lanes, Ogunbowale also forces plenty of turnovers. She is one of the marquee tough shot makers in the league. 

She is also just a bit reckless. Her shot selection leaves something to be desired. Taking the most shots per game of anyone in the league, Ogunbowale had a good season this year, shooting just 40 percent from the field. 

This Dallas team needs a leader at the center, and Arike, at least through her age 25 season, has improvements to be made on that front. Whether it be dumping water bottles on the floor or kicking everything in sight (basketballs, commentary desks, pick your poison), Ogunbowale was a regular topic of discussion for the wrong reasons. As someone who is supposed to be the leader of a team, this is obviously a suboptimal look. As reports grew that Vickie Johnson was not in control and both Gray and Harrison indicated they wanted out, something more stable would have gone a long was to building beyond the last month of the season. Alas, it was not meant to be. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Tyasha Harris, Kayla Thornton, Allisha Gray, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey

In: Natasha Howard, Crystal Dangerfield, Diamond DeShields, Kitija Laksa

Re-Signed: Tierra McCowan

2023 Draft: #3, #5, #11, #19, #31

Obviously, this is a fair bit of roster turnover for a team that seemed to have found itself over the last third of the season. Gray and Harrison made it clear that they would not be back. As much as they will be missed, ending up with the third pick in the draft plus a future first is a boon. 

Thornton has been the defensive anchor for this team, but turning her and Ty Harris into All-Star Natasha Howard and Crystal Dangerfield was an intriguing move. Howard can be just as impactful defensively and should pair well with Ogunbowale should she become a more active passer. 

Marina Mabrey will be missed. She grew into quite a shooter getting paired over the last two seasons with her college teammate. Again, though, signing and trading her for multiple first-round picks and Diamond DeShields is smart. DeShields was clear that she was still going through plenty last season. If she is able to recapture any of her All-Star form this is a strict upgrade for the Wings. 

Yet again, they have control of the draft. With three first-round picks, they could cheaply fill out the rest of their roster and continue building the foundation for the future. Howard and DeShields are high-quality additions who have won at the highest level. With new head coach Latricia Trammell finally getting her shot to run a team, things may be looking up.

Prediction

Dallas is going to continue to improve. If Arike Ogunbowale can embrace the leadership role her supporting case needs, she could become one of the faces of this league. Her brand of hero ball is not for everyone, but it can be electric. Howard, DeShields, McCowan, and Sabally provide plenty of help. 

Even if the overall product is better, Dallas is still unlikely to move up the standings much. Satou Sabally will be healthier than in years past and will push for her second All-Star appearance. Awak Kuier will dunk in a game. Charli Collier will be moved this season. Haley Jones, who I predict will be drafted third overall, will finish second in Rookie of the Year. Despite another early playoff exit, Dallas may be on the right track.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Now is when the true fun begins. In past weeks we have talked about the cool young team that still feels a ways away and the refurbishment of a former league cornerstone. Today, we talk about a Dream becoming a reality in real time. 

2022 Recap

After several seasons of being something of an afterthought, the Atlanta Dream have fully stepped into the spotlight. First-year coach Tanisha Wright spent most of the season in Coach of the Year conversations. Finishing fifth in defensive rating, Wright pushed a team without much of an identity coming in to being elite. 

Wright may have found a way to get the most out of this roster last season. But everything truly orbits around Rhyne Howard. The Rookie of the Year saw the expectations levied upon her as the top overall pick and blew them out of the water. 

Making an All-Star game as a rookie is no small feat, but Howard made it look easy. Finishing tied 12th (with now former teammate Tiffany Hayes) in the league in scoring at 16.2 points per game, the rookie also finished top five in the league in steals per game (1.6). Amongst guards, she was fourth in blocks per game (0.8). 

Even beyond the statistical impact, Howard was the sort of personality that transformed her organization around her. This went from a team without a rudder, suspending former All-Stars, to one of the true up-and-coming teams in the league. She is a partner for Aari McDonald, who took solid strides forward in her second season. As a go-to shot creator and maker, Howard is the build-around that franchises dream about. 

Beyond that, there are plenty of players to get excited about. McDonald, as mentioned took steps forward on both sides of the ball and did well to defer to her new star backcourt partner. Mo Billings remained glass cleaner, averaging two offensive rebounds per game.  

The progress this team made did not go unnoticed. While they were not able to quite make it into the postseason, general manager Dan Padover realized it was time to take a swing. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Kristy Wallace, Erica Wheeler, Tiffany Hayes

In: Danielle Robinson, Allisha Gray, Iliana Rupert

2023 Draft: #6, #8, #15

Re-Signed: AD Durr, Beatrice Mompremier, Nia Coffey, Monique Billings

Before getting into the biggest move of the offseason, the re-signings deserve some recognition. Billings is perfect for a team with plenty of elite young guards to fill in for the dirty work. AD Durr was traded for midseason and had to be the top priority in-house coming into free agency. Durr posted the best numbers of their short career after the move, averaging 10.7 points per game while shooting 45.8 percent from distance. While they are likely to remain a bench player, Durr is the kind of player Atlanta should continue to develop. 

However, before the draft (in which Atlanta has two first-round selections), the Dream brought in another possible All-Star at the cost of two first-round picks.  Simply put, Allisha Gray is the type of player every reasonable franchise should be trying to bring in. 

After spending her entire career with the Dallas Wings, it was clear a change of scenery was in store for Gray. She was an Olympic-level player in an AAU-level organization and deserved better. Gray will be able to duplicate a lot of the skills Howard brings to the table: shot blocking, steals, pesky defense, attacking the rim, cold-blooded shot-making. 

Doubling down on some skill sets can be tricky. However, being able to trot out a guard and a forward pair who can both attack the rim and space the floor while being disruptors on the other end is the makings of a real core. The Dream may not be on the level of teams fielding five All-Stars, but they took the next step while making sure they would have at least two players in the conversation. 

Prediction

The Dream have left the bottom-of-the-league tier. While LA is building with experience, the Dream are young and hungry. They already had an elite defensive unit and Allisha Gray will only improve that. While teams in the coming weeks look to fall down a little further, the Dream are clearly on the rise. Expect the Dream to be locked into the postseason. They will likely be finished around sixth in the league. Naz Hillmon, another rookie from last year, is going to be one of the most impactful bench bigs in the league. She was already showing signs as the season went along and this season is going to be her reminding fans of the dominant player she was at the University of Michigan. 

It is not about title contention. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray have simpler goals this season. They will make the league take notice. Atlanta will become the type of franchise players and fans alike are forced to respect.

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