“Bodies on the floor, carnage…and a bucket” was the play-by-play description for what could have been any given Alyssa Thomas highlight: Sensing an opportunity, she dove on the floor, nearly took out a ref, all to punch the ball ahead to a teammate for an easy transition two.  

Thomas’ play-style may be different than expected given her statistical output: she is a triple double machine, claiming seven of the most recent eight in the WNBA and the first ever back-to-back in history. She is reliable of a producer as you can find in basketball right now, first in the league in not just assists but also rebounds, steals.

Thomas combines the aesthetic peak of basketball with its most practical elements. She has access to all the creativity the sport has to offer, but is obsessed with finding the most direct route to do so.

Take this recent clip, for example. Facing a significant advantage on a jump ball and spotting a teammate with a lead to the open court, Alyssa straight-up volleyball spikes the ball.

Thomas produces across the court despite being a subpar scorer by efficiency. She puts up 15 points per game, mostly coming from her signature push-floater or bruising to the line. In spite of this, there is little she cannot do on the court. She thrives as the conductor of creative, functional offense, stalwart, buttressed by her rare combination of un-moveability off her spot and surprising mobility for her strength. It feels unfair to tie Thomas to any player comps, as she has adapted to a new basketball language of her very own.

AT is able to break down her opponents by accepting and having access to all kinds of possibilities. Calling Alyssa Thomas unpredictable feels like a misnomer, as she seems very aware of where she’s going ahead of time, but can’t tell you. In this way, she is unprecedented in her unpredictability. Playing against her must feel like the most complex cup game of all time, as at any given moment she can duck into the middle of the court to access her floater or a lay-in or pass – and this is key – fully fluent with either hand be it lobs, hit-aheads, pocket passes, you name it.

Let’s break down how she does it.

High-Value Assists

Thomas in particular is the queen of high-value assists. Always in control of pace and with the strength and handle to take her time, she waits for the right moment for daylight to open before hunting out not just a pedestrian pass, but one that will create a lay-up.

While most of her assists to open layups happen in transition, Thomas is able to create offense out of nothing simply due to her timing and passing accuracy, as well as using every tool available to her.

My favorite half-court assists of hers are offensive tips to her teammates: it only takes a moment of daylight for AT to knock the ball sideways to a nearby finisher. But she also is so savvy with her delivery of what would be otherwise pedestrian looks so as to make a player open simply by receiving it. This is how she is able to be a league-best conductor without her own primary scoring, but more weapons are arriving in the next sections.

Defense to Offense

This is why she’s a beast in transition as well, as trustworthy of a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 break leader as you can find. I would be terrified to play poker against Alyssa, as she often is so far ahead of her opponent’s timing she is able to even pick up her dribble early, seemingly toying with the opponent to exaggerate her passing dominance.

The league leader in steals, Thomas does not have the best handle in the open court but is hyper-aware of the space she has to operate. The term proprioception comes to mind, meaning awareness of body in space, as she rotates at the perfect time to swipe the ball, all well setting up the fastbreak.

Once again her passing accuracy shines, as she would be an excellent quarterback: Thomas is urgent but never rushes, able to sling a hit-ahead just above opponent arms, softly landing in her teammates’ bread basket for the finish. It is difficult to write about these without sensationalist language, as she truly rarely forces it despite the frequency of transition possessions. You can’t force it if your accuracy is unmatched. We see this point validated in not just her league leading assist tally, but 95^th percentile assist to turnover rate of 2.96 to 1.

Screener to Screen Receiver:

This is where things get really fun. Thomas is not just strong, but perhaps the strongest in the entire league. At 6’2’’ and with a plus-plus wingspan, AT screens are as good as any at creating seams in the defense, and has the catch radius to get the ball back quickly after doing so. When you’re as accurate of a passer as Thomas is, and have as good of a sense of schematic timing, it only takes a correctly set screen to get things rolling.

Let’s write down the four options we see in this section’s clips:

• Fake dribble hand-off into pindown handoff screen, then catching on the roll to drop off to dunker spot
• HORNS hand-off to give and go, hitting cutter
• Pick to short roll to kick out
• Pick to receiving ball as roller to then hit cutter

Not included was her ability to use screens on occasion as well. What makes Thomas effective as a conductor is not just her accuracy, but ability to hit a body (cause carnage) and regain composure in an instant to find an open teammate. Combine that with the proprioception bit, ducking and diving through opponents in an instant, and you have an entire half-court offense. Her handle may not be enough to create open rim attempts every possession, but let her touch the ball twice, even in short sequence, and you’ll be much more open than before.

Safety Valve Offense

What takes Thomas to the peaks of the WNBA, however, is her scoring. I mentioned she is not the most efficient, as in the 27^th percentile for effective field goal percentage – quite bad! But that calculation does not include free throws, where Thomas is top 20 in the league in made free throws per game.

She is not just physical but seeks it out wherever she can, able to wedge space for herself where there doesn’t appear an angle. The free throw percentage is just okay at 73%, but, in combination with her ability to manufacture looks when she needs to, present her team with a last ditch “safety valve” option on offense.

Most famously, AT switched shooting from left to right after a mid-career shoulder injury. She is now capable of launching her signature push-floater from either shoulder, up to around the free throw line, when the rest of the offense stagnates. While her last resort scoring provides a valuable outlet for her team, it tanks her shooting, at its lowest mark from the field since her second season in the league.

Alyssa Thomas, The Leader

Alyssa Thomas is just now scratching the surface of what, well, Alyssa Thomas looks like as the primary conductor of an offense. While she branched out over the years next to former MVP Jonquel Jones, the Sun offense is now truly revolving around AT. Her combination of skills, whether it body control combined with physicality, creativity matched with passing accuracy, or simply bouldering through traffic to the rim, Thomas not only maximizes her own tools but those of her teammates.

That is where we see the Sun, unfortunately losing Brionna Jones for the year, compensating with the surging DiJonai Carrington and Rebecca Allen, finding her footing. DeWanna Bonner upping her three point volume. Natisha Hiedman struggling so far but still contributing with passing and occasional tough shotmaking. It is tough to count out the Sun, and Alyssa Thomas + a crew of toolsy complements is why.

The post Alyssa Thomas: Carnage and a Bucket appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. After a surprise run to the WNBA Finals, the mood in Connecticut should be positive. However, with so much off-season turnover, the question remains. Is the Sun setting?

2022 Recap

It was always going to be a weird year. Three years ago, Alyssa Thomas was the top option with Jonquel Jones taking off the bubble season. In 2021, AT missed the season and Jones skyrocketed to MVP status. With both sharing the court for the full season, combined with the continued emergence of Brionna Jones, it was time to see how everyone looked together.

The results are more complicated than normal and tend to depend on the angle from which you want to look. One win out of the top seed in the league, the Sun finished second in offensive and defensive rating. Even with Jasmine Thomas missing all but five games, the Sun were as elite as ever. 

That being said, they were not without question marks. Coming off an MVP, Jonquel Jones did not look the same. Her numbers went down across the board: 14.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. As good as she was a season before, this team reverted to being Alyssa Thomas’ team.

The mixed bag continued throughout the roster. Jasmine Thomas was missed for most of the season, Natisha Hiedeman cemented herself as a starter. DeWanna Bonner continued to see her numbers drop. Bri Jones, per 36 minutes, continued to ascend. 

As always, the most important member of the team was Alyssa Thomas. The Engine takes Connecticut to another level.

Total Eclipse

Alyssa Thomas was a revelation for much of the year. Her stats often do not tell the full story. Averaging 13.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals…those numbers are good, but not the normal stats you would see from an MVP candidate. 

Watching from game to game, however, it is easy to see. She did not earn the nickname “Engine” by accident. Everything ran through her. When Jasmine Thomas went out, AT became the de facto point guard, despite often sharing the court with Hiedeman.

The only player that did not seem to immediately get better from the usage rate of Thomas was the reigning MVP. Figuring out how to balance both of them was a consistent concern for former head coach Curt Miller. It worked well enough, obviously, given the run to the Finals. But there were notable times, even in the playoffs, when things were bristling. Which led to plenty of change during the offseason.

Offseason Overview

Out: Jonquel Jones, Jasmine Thomas, Courtney Williams, Joyner Holmes, Odyssey Sims

In: Rebecca Allen, Tyasha Harris, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Lauren Cox (training camp), Tiffany Hayes

Re-Signed: Brionna Jones, Natisha Hiedeman

2023 Draft: Alexis Morris, Ashten Prechtel 

Included but not outlined above, Curt Miller leaving as the leader of this team is a drastic shift. He won 60 percent or more of games in five of his seven seasons. He made two trips to the Finals. It will be tough for new coach Stephanie White to replicate. With a Finals appearance on her own resume, however, she stands a chance. 

The rest of the roster is notably different. There is no replacing a player like Jonquel Jones, but more clearly outlining the roles for Thomas and Bri Jones will do wonders. Courtney Williams was not a great fit on the team, and turning her place on the roster into depth should go a long way. 

Rebecca Allen is a career 36.9 percent shooter from distance, a boon for the team that attempted the second fewest triples in the league last season. Tyasha Harris is worth investing time in as a backup guard who never go enough of a chance in Dallas. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is an exciting young big who looked good in limited minutes in LA last year. If Lauren Cox makes the team, they will be a fun pair of bigs off the bench. 

Tiffany Hayes is the big swing of the offseason though. The former All-Star could have easily made her second appearance last season and comes in as the most dynamic scorer on the current roster. Fit is already drastically improved on this roster from a season ago and Hayes is going to thrive. 

Prediction: 

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Connecticut Sun will make the WNBA Semi-Finals. They will remain an elite defense while improving offensively. Alyssa Thomas will get the MVP while continuing to climb up the all-time triple-doubles list. While a title still feels unlikely, they will remain in the conversation.

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