I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Lakers have developed a positive reputation around NBA circles for their drafting in recent years, picking up Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr., Josh Hart, and Kyle Kuzma with late first or second-round picks. And maybe even more impressive, have signed and developed undrafted free agents like Alex Caruso and Austin Reaves that have shown great promise to have long, sustainable NBA careers.

Team Needs

With the Lakers being in a win-now mindset with an aging LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for the #17 pick, the team should be looking for short-term fit prospects with upside alongside the two stars instead of long-term projects. 

As far as on-court fit, in the playoffs we saw some holes the Lakers should be addressing in the off-season, and here’s how I would rank them.

1. More size among frontcourt
   • To close out games, Lebron and AD as your two frontcourt options make a formidable backline but across a full 82-game season, it would be the wrong move to put all of the interior burden on them. We also saw in that Denver series, playing with more wings and guards led to LA getting obliterated on the boards and this would help with that.
2. Backup center (can also play with AD)
   • If the Lakers could find a consistent option to back up AD while also being a solid enough option to play alongside Davis, it would do wonders for the team’s depth and rotations while also alleviating some size concerns as well.
3. Overall shotmaking
   • We saw D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Troy Brown Jr. shoot below league average from three in the playoffs and it cost the team in the long run. On paper you should be able to trust Russell, Beasley, and Brown Jr. but the Lakers just may need more reliable shooters than that group. 

Six Fits for #17

Jordan Hawkins, 6-5 SG, UConn

Hawkins is an off-ball gunner. The way UCONN used him endlessly running around off-ball screens to get open and knock down shots drew comparison to a former UCONN great, Ray Allen. Hawkins has great deceleration and footwork coming off of those screens to stop on a dime and knock down deep contested looks. While that is his selling point, the slim shooter hailing from Maryland has an array of moves off the dribble as well. Whether its step backs, sidesteps, or pull-up midranges, do not think Hawkins is just a one-trick pony. He can also attack hard closeouts or good back pressure from defenders very well and get to the rim for floaters, dumb-offs, or finishes at the rim but this is a big area for him to improve on. Hawkins only shot 55% at the rim this season, which is below average and on film, he can produce some wild attempts at the rim trying to finish through defenders (which is a plus) but with his slim frame, he’ll lose control of the ball or just get overwhelmed by the defender.

As far as defense, Hawkins is a very attentive defender that does his job and can play with a physicality that some may not expect with his frame. He is comfortable going chest to chest with ball handlers and walling them off and also has the foot speed to stay with plenty of guards. He defends with high and active hands which can throw off defenders even with a mild +2 wingspan at 6’7. Hawkins is a defender that you won’t really notice when watching and that is a good thing! His ability to execute the team’s scheme and stay locked in while rarely having slip-ups or miscues can go a long way. 

I could see Hawkins fitting into Malik Beasley or Lonnie Walker’s role like a glove and with his movement skills, it could open up an array of attacks that the Lakers could exploit on the opponent’s defense. 

Kobe Bufkin, 6-5 PG/SG, Michigan

Not to mention him being named after a franchise legend and attending Lakers’ general manager Rob Pelinka’s alma mater, but Kobe Bufkin fits the “guards with high feel for the game” mold the Lakers have shown to value in the draft with the acquisitions of Austin Reaves and previously Alex Caruso. Bufkin is trustworthy and steady with the ball in his hands while being a quick ball mover and decision-maker. Bufkin has shown to be a three-level scorer as well, although on low volume. The lanky lefty shot 36% from three, 55% from two, and 69% at the rim (!!). His craft around the rim is very impressive as he can make finishes over contests at obscure angles and use his long wingspan to get around the limbs defending the rim. His offensive play style suits either being off the ball, playing next to high-usage creators where he can fill in where needed, but he can also up his own usage if need be and still leave a positive and efficient impact on the game. 

This is where context should be added to Kobe Bufkin’s sophomore season at Michigan. As his teammate and projected 1st rounder, Jett Howard, slowed down in production and dealt with injuries later in the year, Bufkin’s offensive load increased tenfold along with his production which didn’t come with a noticeable drop in efficiency either (very much a green flag). In his last 10 games, Bufkin had six games where his usage rate was over 25%, compared to his 23 previous games in the season where he had a total of three games with that high of usage rate. And over those last 10 games, the former four-star prospect averaged 18 ppg shooting 56% from two and 44% from three. 

Bufkin is a pull-up threat from two and three, uses long strides and advanced angles to get to the rim but is a bit better off of actions rather than creating from a standstill in isolation. A wart in Bufkin’s offense is his burst and explosiveness off the dribble which can limit his on-ball effectiveness. His shot will also need to be sped up at the next level, but it is clear the shooting touch is present. 

Where Kobe Bufkin really excels though is the defensive side of the ball where, in my opinion, he is in the top class of perimeter defenders in this draft class. Bufkin’s screen navigation and footwork is just elite on and off the ball. He can slither around screens and recover to get back in front of the ball handler with ease. His 6’8 wingspan mixed with his tenacity at the point of attack can really harass opponents and force misses. His off-ball defense is supreme too, where he is a great communicator, very attentive to all actions on the court, is a good chaser, and an even better rotator. A couple of holes in his defense though is his strength as he can get powered through and sometimes is a bit too aggressive on-ball when defending fast guards and can get burned. Bufkin is pretty much an all-around prospect and will impact winning wherever he lands. 

Leonard Miller, 6-10 PF, G-League Ignite

A year ago, the draft community was saying Leonard Miller had an unorthodox, funky, and questionable play style in terms of translatability to the league. Now, after his instrumental stint with G-League Ignite, I can see crystal clear how Miller can potentially have a big role impacting winning at the next level.  

Standing at 6-10 with an already defined frame, Miller’s work starts in the paint where he is as physical a 19-year-old you’ll see. Miller loves engaging in and playing through contact while going up strong each and every time. He has impeccable touch around the rim with either hand and can make tough layups look easy. With that touch, he also has an impressive floater game that he uses from time to time and again, with either hand. As a natural lefty, you would think Miller would shy away from using his right hand but after watching him finish with his right so many times, I always come back questioning if he really is left-handed. His good touch is also exemplified by his 79% shooting at the free-throw line. Another place Miller thrives is the offensive glass, creating and maintaining good position on the boards to get 2nd opportunities which he makes the most out of. 

That is what he can produce with his eyes closed but where the intrigue comes with Miller is his ability to create advantages from the perimeter at his size plus his finishing ability. He’s still raw in this area of the game and can produce some ugly turnovers and bad possessions, but the flashes are very real. Attacking closeouts for turn-around jumpers, going coast-to-coast in transition after defensive rebounds, and sometimes even creating rim looks from a standstill is why Miller’s stock has continued to rise throughout the year. Also given his proven touch on the interior and at the line, there is hope that one day he’ll be able to stretch that out to three. He does have a pretty wacky form but shooting 33% from three for the year gives a solid floor that teams can trust to work from. 

Miller’s biggest drawback however is his defense where he has grown throughout the year to be fair but can look lost on defense a lot of the time. His defense will potentially limit him from sliding down and giving positive minutes at the center position because his rim protection skills, well they just aren’t great to say the least. And if you want to switch with Miller, he has shown of bad possessions just not being able to stay with smaller players on the perimeter and giving up drives way too easily. 

As far as his fit on the Lakers, Miller would slot in as a bigger forward off the bench who would help a ton with rebounding and just potential size mismatches. He could play alongside Anthony Davis where Miller’s defensive miscues won’t be as detrimental with Davis on the backline. While the Toronto product is not the shot in the dark he once was, he will still command a lot of development time for him to reach his fullest potential.

Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 SG/SF, Pepperdine

Hailing from the Lakers’ backyard in Southern California, the team should be very familiar with Maxwell Lewis and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he is the name called at pick #17 on draft night. At a macro-level, Lewis looks like your prototypical, long and rangy 3nD prospect with a bit of upside but looking closely, it’s not as black and white as it may seem.

The intrigue with Lewis is his offense and how he has the ability to do more than your prototypical 3nD role player. Lewis already possesses a solid handle with a silky-smooth jumpsuit where he loves to pull up from midrange and beyond the arc. Lewis only shot 35% from three this year which is a bit on the lower side for a prospect that’s shooting is supposed to be his strong skill, but the touch on his jumper and ability to get them off quickly has given me faith in the shooting in the long run—also Lewis shot an impressive 43% on catch and shoot threes this season. He also can shoot off of a variety of looks with the pull-up being his go-to but can also shoot off of step backs, sidesteps, PnR, and off of movement off-ball.

Lewis works well as a secondary/tertiary player in the offense attacking bent defenses where he can exploit the creases and get good looks. He is a solid passer in these situations and has some burst and explosiveness to attack the rim in these situations as well. Lewis shot a really nice 61% at the rim this season and with his frame, it is a bit surprising, but he uses his length really well around the rim and takes long, unorthodox strides to throw off defenders when finishing. He is another player where he is much better when getting looks off of actions and attacking off of other player’s primary attacks rather than creating something alone from a standstill. He’s not going to generate that much separation off the dribble but he’s adept enough at scoring to put the ball in the basket either way.

On the defensive side is where Maxwell Lewis falls short of that 3nD label. Lewis’ consistency and attentiveness on that end of the court is definitely something he will have to improve upon throughout the course of his career. His technique can be refined a bit as well, as he can let ball handlers drive too easily without much resistance which will be something he could get subbed out for immediately in the NBA. Lewis has the frame and solid enough athleticism to be a plus defender but is missing a few key intangibles that people can take for granted with great or even good defenders. But with the coaching in this league, I would expect Lewis to improve upon his defense rather quickly upon his arrival in the big leagues.

As a fit on the Lakers, Maxwell Lewis provides another option in the wing room which the team has desperately needed for a couple of years now. With one year of NBA development already down for Max Christie, it would be fun to see those two on the wings alongside the superstar duo with Lewis being the more offensive-inclined wing and Christie being more defensive-inclined.

Cason Wallace, 6-4 PG/SG, Kentucky

With the departure of Alex Caruso in the 2021 offseason, the Lakers have had trouble replacing the defensive presence the former fan favorite brought to the team at the guard position. But getting Cason Wallace a few years later would be a hell of a replacement in that area. 

Wallace is a tough, rugged 6-4 guard with all of the hustle intangibles you can think of. Fights for every loose ball, is the first one on the floor, knows where to be at all times, and is just a smart and physical defender. With Wallace’ frame, it allows him to guard up in position so that he can take on taller wings and even some forwards and still have success defending them. Where Wallace really excels on the defensive end though is off of the ball where he can be a nuisance to the opposition at all times. He’s an elite weakside rim protector for the guard position and is seemingly always in position to make a play on the ball no matter where he is. He is that rare mix of always being a steady, smart defender while also being a defensive playmaker which just leads to him being a massive positive whenever he’s on the court. A couple drawbacks on his defense though is his screen navigation as he can get caught up on more screens than you would like and also he isn’t as nimble to stay with super quick guards which could hinder his versatility on that end. 

Now onto the offensive end where the totality of Wallace’s game really shines and makes him such a good guard prospect. Wallace can operate on or off the ball and spent a lot of time doing both throughout the year. As Kentucky starting point guard, Sahvir Wheeler, got injured midway through the season, Wallace, who was starting at the shooting guard position, slotted down to play point and his impact remained large. After averaging 3.5 assists per game to 1.9 turnovers playing alongside Wheeler, in the last 10 games of Kentucky’s season with Wheeler out, Wallace averaged 5.8 assists per game to only 2.6 turnovers. His already solid playmaking was able to perk up without also seeing a spike in turnovers as well which is a great sign.

Wallace is very comfortable operating in the pick-and-roll game making reads, or being a scorer. He has a professional midrange pull-up game he loves going to and is a great finisher as well, shooting 71% at the rim (!!!) this season. His steady rim pressure he can provide is what also makes him a constant positive when on the court. His 3PT shooting will be a talking point as that part of his game fluctuated a great deal throughout the season. In his first 16 games of the season, Wallace shot 42% from three but in his last 16 games of the season, he shot 25% from three so the truth is in the eye of the beholder. And from going on priors and what I’ve seen from Wallace going back to high school, I am a firm believer that he’ll become at least an average shooter at the next level (which is 36% from three). 

His fit on the Lakers would be very seamless as the roster has needed some defensive size and athleticism in the backcourt which Wallace definitely brings. Whether it would be to outright take Dennis Schroder’s backup PG role or play him next to a PG, Wallace should fit in where needed and LeBron should be more than welcomed to add another quick processing athlete to the team.

Jett Howard, 6-8 F, Michigan

Who would I be the absolute least surprised to hear the Lakers choose with the #17 pick? That would be nonother than Jett Howard, who attended Rob Pelinka’s alma mater and is also a son of Juwan Howard, Pelinka’s former teammate on the “Fab Five” Michigan teams in the 90s. Over the past couple of years when it comes to adding people to the Lakers organization whether it’s in the front office or on the court, the Lakers have shown to go with people they are familiar with and those who already have ties within the organization. I mean Rob Pelinka himself got the general manager position with his most prominent prior experience being that he was Kobe Bryant’s agent.

However, that isn’t to say that Jett would purely be a nepotism pick because he gives the Lakers one specific skill they have and always will desire—shooting. Jett Howard is one of the premier catch-and-shoot players in the class, shooting 39% on catch-and-shoot 3s this season. At his height and at the forward position, this can be a luxury to have slotted in between two rim pressure gods in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Howard is also able to excel with shooting off of movement in screening actions which can warp defenses to a certain degree and open up offenses to new possibilities. Along with the shooting, Howard has shown the capabilities to be a good secondary playmaker as well, being able to make nice dump-off passes or make solid kick-outs for threes.

His on-ball game is a bit divisive in the draft community though as he does possess a nice handle to create a solid amount of looks on his own, but the drawback is those looks are mostly all tough shots over defenders. Howard does not possess a great deal of burst at the point of attack, and it limits him in situations where he is looking to create. This also limits the range of shots at his disposal where most of the time, he resorts to tough midrange or 3PT pull-ups instead of getting good looks at the rim because his athleticism just doesn’t allow him to in standstill isolations. With him being a 6-8 forward, it was surprising to see Howard with only six total dunk attempts this season and only 47 attempts at the rim overall.

And while offensively he wasn’t perfect, defense should be Jett’s main priority in terms of what to improve over the course of his rookie NBA season because it was rough. With Jett already not being the best athlete, it would need to take a lot of clever technique, effort, and engagement to overcome that deficit and Jett really didn’t show much of those three essentials. Howard really struggled to contain drives on the perimeter and at times was a target for opposing guards to go after and attack. Already not having the best foot speed, Howard compounds that by having poor technique when defending the ball, not being in a proper stance when guarding and subconsciously giving up a lane that guards can attack. Howard also doesn’t provide much resistance when defending the post and can be moved around pretty easily there as well.

And the last thing that Howard will have to improve upon is his rebounding. Averaging 2.8 rebounds per game for the full season is just not acceptable for a 6-8 forward who will be depended on to help with rebounding no matter what team he goes to. Howard had poor box-out tendencies throughout the year and let his man easily get around him for offensive rebounds a number of times. While Jett Howard in theory would be a great fit between LeBron and AD with his shooting and secondary playmaking, it would be instrumental for him to improve his game around the edges so that he isn’t just a one-trick pony.

Fits for #47

• Amari Bailey, 6-4 G, UCLA
  • Local freshman product whose potential was being untapped throughout the year. Dribble/pass/shoot guard with athleticism and good defensive frame.
• Jalen Slawson, 6-7 F, Furman
  • Savvy upperclassman with great defensive instincts and 7-0 wingspan. Above average ball-handler and decision-maker for his size, great passer in DHO, Delay, Elbow actions.
• Mouhamed Gueye, 6-11 F/C, Washington St.
  • Fluid athlete for his size. Developing shot with nice form, solid ball skills for size and solid rim protector with 7-3 wingspan. Live athlete as well, gets off the floor quickly.
• Toumani Camara, 6-8 F/C, Dayton
  • All-around, modern PF. Great interior finisher and offensive rebounder with solid outside shot and can attack closeouts. Great athlete with defensive mobility.
• Nikola Djurisic, 6-8 G, Mega Basket
  • Great tools and feel being a 6-8 guard but underwhelmed statistically overseas. In theory, is a dribble/pass/shoot tall guard but is a bet on development.
• Julian Strawther, 6-7 SF, Gonzaga
  • Knockdown shooter at the wing position and is a great rebounder. Average across the board pretty much everywhere else though.

It should also be mentioned that this could all be for naught if the Lakers end up trading their pick(s) for a proven rotation player. Given LA hasn’t picked in the 1st round since 2018 (Moritz Wagner being the pick at #25), it definitely wouldn’t be shocking if they elect to go the trade route again, but I also could see them wanting to get back to drafting high-quality young talent. As Jovan Buha of The Athletic reported, “The most likely outcome is the Lakers keeping the No. 17th pick, according to multiple team sources not authorized to speak publicly.” At the end of the day though, the Lakers’ front office and drafting department hasn’t done much wrong in recent years, so I trust them to make a good selection no matter who it is. Whoever they see worthy enough to fit in and develop alongside the two stars, I have full confidence in that player just like the front office will. 

The post Los Angeles Lakers 2023 NBA Draft Guide appeared first on Swish Theory.

For this, second piece, I’m looking at “Green Flags Only” prospects, freshmen and sophomore NCAA players who exceeded various statistical minimums and did not see the same kind of linear production decline against the best teams.

With no glaring statistical weaknesses, these prospects do Everything, Everywhere regardless of who they’re playing and at any given moment. The questions we’ll be looking to answer this time are, primarily:

1. Do they have an extra gear to show the special?
2. Will their game translate in the same way against NBA competition?

They were able to produce all over and consistently, but how big are those margins, and where might they dominate? Do they have star potential or just consistency? Do they even have that? The answers varied widely:

Jarace Walker (Houston, 7.7 BPM)

Jarace is a tricky evaluation given the contrasts of the obvious with the dubious. Let’s start there:

• The obvious
  • Jarace is an elite passer
  • Jarace is elite at reading an offense
  • Jarace has elite positioning
  • Jarace can dribble and shoot better than most at his position
• The dubious
  • Jarace can’t get to the rim consistently
  • Jarace doesn’t have much burst
  • Jarace takes a while to leap

The latter qualities were masked by his fantastic athletic testing in a controlled setting, with one of the best verticals at the Combine. But the implementation of that in-game is a question of degree that requires close film watching. Let’s dig in.

Jarace is one of the best processors of what is happening on the court in this class, and, with size, strength and some dribble / pass / shoot skill, is an obvious and safe bet to be positive on an NBA floor.

The obvious is, in fact, so obvious it can be easy to underestimate. At any given point, Jarace makes crosscourt reads look simple, is able to rotate into advantageous spot ahead of NCAA competition, and whips passes to open shooters at the perfect time. He knows how to use eye manipulation to create openings, and understands when the opponent is about to over-rotate.

I have no issue projecting Jarace’s strengths conveying at the next level. At 6’6.5’’ with a 7’2.5’’ wingspan, 97^th percentile standing vert, 83^rd percentile lane agility and 78^th percentile sprint scores at the combine, Walker certainly has the athletic build to capitalize on them.

His statistical profile was elite, particularly his combination of 12% assist rate, 6.2% block rate, 2.2% steal rate and 38% shooting on 138 midrange attempts, the majority of which were unassisted. Being able to hit difficult shots while also reading the floor at a high level on both ends is a good formula for success. Bobby Portis at Arkansas is the only comparable freshman for that combination of stats (if you relax the criteria, Jabari Parker, Terrence Jones, Demarcus Cousins and Mo Harkless appear), another toolsy, scheme-versatile big wing/small big but not the level of passer as Jarace.

So, Jarace’s floor is safe – how about his ceiling?

That is where the dubious comes in. The combination of lack of elite burst and longer leaping load time have lead to overreliance on his floater and pull-up, and, for an otherwise highly crafty player, a surprising lack thereof on drives. Without an initial edge even in NCAA against mediocre competition on drives, Jarace is often forced to bail out early, limiting the utility of his passing as well.

The most damning indicator is his mere 0.24 rate of free throws to shot attempts: this would be the worst mark among that comp set I listed above, with Mo Harkless as closest at 0.33 and Demarcus Cousins at the peak of 0.73.

While we’re being greedy, that lack of burst limits what could have been a DPOY-degree of upside on defense. Jarace is always aware of long rotations he could make, but not always capable of making them physically. He is always first to spot a development, contributing to elite stock rates regardless, but could have been a true monster with a more rapid first step and a bit more agility.

Where we are left is an obviously great connector prospect who also has shotmaking and primary distributor upside, in addition to some rim protection ability. That is an extremely safe bet in the top 10. If he is able to become a little bit quicker and a little more mobile, he could easily clear top 5 value.

Jordan Hawkins (UConn, 7.4 BPM)

The proof of Jordan Hawkins being NBA-ready also hits you over the head: he was the best player on a national championship team where he filled his role admirably. That role also slots easily into any team, being off-ball centric, as scalable as you want.

The primary selling point for Hawkins is the shot, particularly off of movement. Off the catch he took 222 threes and made 91 of them (41%). His 7.6 points per game shooting off the catch was top 20 in the country, and the primary kill shot for the nation’s best team. Hawkins flew around screens and reorganized in an instant, always committing to his follow through.

That shot will translate to the next level, as will Hawkins’ general approach to the game. He plays very hard, more physical than you’d expect for what is often a more cosmetic archetype. The issue is he is small, listed at 6’5’’ but often unable to deter shots from even smaller wings. He gets in the right position but it often does not matter, begging questions of whether he would be targeted in high stakes NBA circumstances.

He also has little star path outside of his shotmaking. The handle is not good for a guard, though he is savvy enough to limit those occasions to when necessary. This brings me to my favorite part of Hawkins’ game: he is not afraid to attack whatever space the opponent gives him, whether it’s into a midrange pullup or all the way to the basket. The tools to get there or finish when he arrives are not fantastic, but his shooting gravity is enough that the lanes should be wide.

I would love to consider Hawkins a top 20 prospect simply by how he plays the game and how reliable it is to be useful to an NBA team, and even good ones. Off-ball scoring at his level without obvious vulnerabilities makes him a fit with all 30 NBA teams. But when searching for star ceilings, I am less compelled to see it in Hawkins unless he reaches a comfort level with the handle to seek out more midrange opportunities. It’s possible, but not my favorite bet considering a loaded top 20.

Cason Wallace (Kentucky, 7.0 BPM)

No player has a wider gap between value on the court and scarcity of skillset than Cason. The value proposition is strong: he can defend any guard or small wing, sniffing out actions and making as consistent an impact as any guard in the class; he can provide some offensive value all over, whether passing, midrange floaters, screensetting, catch and shoot. But when it comes to grasping for rarity, I struggle to see as immediate of star scarcity as others in the lottery.

Let’s take a step back. Cason Wallace is a very, very good basketball player. It is rare to have a guard connector prospect of his ability in a class. He is as sound as you’ll find as far as hand placement and positioning, surely obnoxious to be guarded by. He is more didactic on offense, a table setter with some athletic and dribble pass shoot skills to rely on.

I am sure Wallace will be a good NBA player. The question we are here to ask, uncomfortable but necessary near the top, is how rare his qualities are.

The rarest aspect of his game is simply its combination of factors, and why he is a clear top 20 prospect in my mind. But the dominant factors may be lacking when benchmarking against odds of being a top 2 player on a title team. It’s a high bar, but one we have to focus on.

There are many avenues for Cason to reach that, all of which are debatable in likelihood:

• Ride the floater to primary or secondary scoring
• Continue to progress as an offensive conductor
• Add additional finishing craft to broaden scoring opportunities
• Be that good of a shutdown defender

I struggle, however, to see any of these avenues as likely in their own right, even if surely will progress at least somewhat. With the recent offensive explosion where 110 offensive ratings are pedestrian, I struggle to see where Cason stands out (again, relative to star upside). His handle and creativity attacking the rim are fairly straightforward, indicated by his 0.22 free throw to field goal attempt rate and only 24% of attempts coming at the rim.

Wallace’s stats exceed dominant thresholds for connector equity: 2.0 assist to turnover ratio, 24% assist rate, 3.7% steal rate and 54% true shooting is a pristine resume for a high major freshman (Dennis Smith Jr., Wade Baldwin, Jrue Holiday and Shabazz Napier are only ones in vicinity) but I want to find the easy. Cason is highly likely to make everything a bit harder for his opponent, but I struggle to see the dominant.

You know what, as I write this and review the clips…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’ve asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.

Gradey Dick (Kansas, 6.5 BPM)

My quick and easy pitch for Gradey is this: he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst. But we can begin with the shot.

Gradey has all the hallmarks of what I look for in a sharpshooter: smooth and consistent release; high peak and quickly; hunts for it off movement; seems to enjoy shooting it. He is a very tough cover, able at 6’6.25’’ and 6’8.75’’ wingspan to shoot it over opponent off the move, especially with his quirky shot. He sets it through his gather at about the release height, so when he begins the second motion it’s quick and effortless. Think Klay Thompson’s but with less dip and a bit more mechanical.

The handle is the obvious swing skill. Dick is quite coordinated at his size, also evidenced by his active choreography on Tik Tok, able to take advantage of his shooting gravity but ducking through tight closeouts and resetting into his shot. For that reason I have quite high hopes in him as a midrange pull-up threat, simply too good of a shooter and too nimble on his feet to not be. The handle is simple but functional, with reason to think more reps will mean more progress (simply waiting for the ball was enough to fill it up at Kansas as the primary shooting threat on the team).

On defense, he uses his length exceptionally well and, more importantly, is very obviously always seeking out a way to have an impact. When he swats to block shots it’s ferociously, when he sees a loose ball he dives, and he has the coordination to maximize his length where you wouldn’t expect.

Gradey Dick, to me, is a very safe top 10 pick. Shooting is shooting, is shooting, and Gradey is as confident as I can get in a 40%+ high volume spot up threat. To then have confidence in some defense, some handle, lots of effort on top of that? In my opinion, there is a good case for him as early as #5.

Anthony Black (Arkansas, 5.9)

Ant is an obvious candidate to stick in the league as a physical connector. As Arkansas’ driving force (especially when Nick Smith Jr. was out) – the team was +22 net rating with Ant on compared to +9 with him off – Black put up stats similar to Bruce Brown as a freshman at Florida:

Anthony Black / Bruce Brown

• 22% / 22% USG
• 55% / 56% TS
• 21% / 21% AST
• 1.3 / 1.6 A:TO
• 3.4 / 2.9 STL%
• 1.9 / 1.9 BLK%
• 93-148 (63%) / 90-144 (63%) at rim
• 32% / 21% midrange
• 71% / 74% FT%
• 30% / 35% 3P%
• 58 / 41 FTAR

A more physically daunting Bruce Brown is about as close of a comparison as I can get in this class, a player constantly on the swerve and able to exert themselves no matter the task. Not only are they toolsy, but take pride in being so. Black can be seen throwing his body against whatever opponent is nearest, never turning down an opportunity to set a flare screen or tag a roller: Ant is a gamer.

It’s not all perfect, and, much like Bruce Brown, it may be worth asking what the star upside is even as appreciating all that makes them such useful players. Ant has many routes to the rim, excellent at alternating footwork to parry past second line defenders. But he often struggles to get past that first one, shiftier than he is bursty and more functional in handle than magician.

The shot isn’t great, as a possession ending in an Ant Black three is unlikely to be good offense in the NBA, but Ant’s ability to stay on a swivel will give him opportunities to connect. His adherence to right-playism means if he’s open he’ll be taking the ball to the basket, if others are open he’ll be slinging it as soon as he can, if there’s a wide to keep the play going in your favor, he’ll sniff it out.

The offense could be a struggle in the wrong system, one that either tries to let him beat his man off the dribble bringing the ball up or doesn’t allow him to move throughout the half court. But I love betting on reaction time x size x skill, as Ant will have endless opportunities to make a difference. He’ll find his way on the floor, but may need to strike the right conditions to truly become a star.

Kobe Bufkin (Michigan, 5.8 BPM)

Of anyone on this list, Bufkin feels like could belong on the Whiteboard prospect list. His dynamic trait is his driving ability, with long stride lengths and finishing craft. He is particularly adept at finishing from oblique angles while extending past his defender, shooting past and pushing or finger rolling the ball to land gently above the rim. That is an NBA level skill.

I would feel much better about that selling point if it were paired with a complete game as Bufkin’s presence on this list suggests. He’s close, an adept connective passer and generally active across the court. But his lack of any physical presence on the interior presents an obvious point of weakness that could be a risk in high leverage matchups.

Bufkin only weighs 187 pounds, unable to hold space with a lanky frame or catch up after being screened. That makes the sell tougher for a combo guard who can likely only guard true point guards. But Bufkin is still a three level scoring threat, efficient on solid volume everywhere, and perhaps just good enough of a shooter and passer to be that difficult to cover.

Players with the ability to score from three, midrange pull-ups or drives to the rim are always coveted. It may also be possible for Bufkin to add the strength needed to not be targeted by an offense, or use his anticipatory abilities to compensate. I currently have Bufkin slated as a mid-to-late first prospect, though perhaps is the last on my board with true top 3 potential for a good team if things break the right way.

Jett Howard (Michigan, 4.3)

Jett, coach Juwan’s son, made a ton of threes this season. At 14 per 100 possessions, Howard made 37% and self-created one of every four. Funnily enough, watching the tape you could imagine those numbers rising even higher.

Howard is unbelievably comfortable getting into his shot no matter the context. Although not without flaws – we’ll get into those later – he has the exact type of athleticism where he can rebalance into his pocket in an instant no matter from what position. His form is about ideal, following through consistently and dedicated about his footwork.

Adding on to his flamethrower decal, Jett is also an exceptional passer with good handle. He is both accurate and decisive, limited only by his negative first step where his handle is often dedicated to buying time more than taking space.

This all adds up to a dynamo of an offensive player who will be difficult to keep from scoring, regardless of role. He is shy attacking the basket with a narrow frame, but touch is feathery enough that even a 15-foot floater feels like an acceptable shot.

Now, the defense. Jett is the most significant difference between offense and defense of all prospects i’ve covered so far, as limited in physicality he can provide as well as prone to fall asleep or be a step slow getting around screens.

What’s extremely encouraging, and helped me gain comfort with him as a lotto pick is he did show signs of wanting to use his full wing size. His blocks improved from nonexistent to occasional, making up for the small guard count of rebounds. He was also playing on sprained ankles most of the season, looking more present of a presence in his high school years.

I can’t wait to watch Jett Howard in the NBA. His shot would be my favorite in the class if Gradey Dick wasn’t in it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up its best shooter, or even its best scorer (outside of Wemby). The shooting will stick fast, I just hope the defense is good enough to keep him stuck in.

Amari Bailey (UCLA, 3.9 BPM)

Amari earns the final spot here due to his ability to pop up all over the court, with good defense (2.5% steal rate and 1.4% block rate with few fouls) and adequate passing (15% assist rate, 0.9), rebounding (13% defensive rate, 4% offensive). While he only averaged 11 points per game, he was able to score at the rim (77-118), midrange (37-101) and three (21-54) over 30 games.

Positionally, Amari is a clear combo guard, with defensive ground coverage his calling card. Bailey’s stance is ideal, and as always active is able to pivot from distance to distance in an instant. At only 6’3.25’’ with a 6’7’’ wingspan, there will be big guard/small wing assignments Bailey can’t handle, as opponent could still often shoot over him at the NCAA level. But he will be an exceptional glue guy.

I struggle to see Bailey as worth a pick in the first half of the first round, but could provide a versatile skillset to a competitive team towards the end of the first. The swing skill is the pull-up, looking fluid here and there as Bailey is quite fluid of an athlete overall. The mechanics are fine but inconsistent, as seen in his merely decent percentages. He has starter potential, as I buy him finding time with his activity and really embodying the essence of this category.

The post The 2023 NBA Draft’s “Everything Everywhere” Prospects appeared first on Swish Theory.