Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

Swish is here to help you, as we asked our contributors who impressed: who showed you something new, whether new moves or new tactics, new shooting form…what have you. We filtered through the mirages to find the tangible, items that just might remain relevant come regular season start.

Without further ado, here are Swish Theory’s Summer League 2023 takeaways.

Matt Powers – Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced feel for manipulation 

Pick and roll play is not a staple of Sharpe’s game, at least not up to this point, but Summer League was potentially an inflection point. Sharpe accumulated 36 pick and rolls in his four games, his nine per game five times higher than his rookie season. 

It was not simply the usage, however, but also the execution. Sharpe will still not be mistaken for a Nash-ian playmaker, at only 2.5 assists per game in Summer League after only 1.2 as a rookie, but advanced understanding of how to set up screens to deploy his own scoring speaks to his star upside regardless.

In the below Summer League clips we see Shaedon:

1. Wait to start his dribble until screen set, initiate with hang dribble then in-and-out to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
2. Jab to set up screen, hesi to set up re-screen, reject to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
3. Cross between the legs into using screen, gets skinny to reset into pull-up in one motion
4. Set up hand-off to then re-establish more favorable screen, wide open three

This variety of screen usage masks Sharpe’s intention between drive and pull-up, and when his and his screener’s defenders have to lock in more intently at the point of screen, Shaedon has the potential to draw in additional help with his supreme scoring gravity.

Sharpe’s assist rate skyrocketed from nearly non-existent to typical of a young scoring guard when Dame sat last year. Should he get even more leeway to create in the backcourt, Sharpe could continue to chain combos to become not just a deadly scorer but overall playmaker.

Lucas Kaplan – Leonard Miller willing to use size to his advantage

Leonard Miller might have the most interesting development path from the 2023 class to me. There is an idea, to which I’ve heard arguments both for and against, that he has outlier movement skills and a ceiling far more enticing, due to that trait, than a second-round draft slot would suggest.

I’m not here to debate just how special his fluidity is at 6’11 and 19 years old. No matter where you fall on Miller, though, that’s part of the sell. Our very own Avinash Chauhan wrote an excellent, pre-draft piece on the young Canadian and why we could be looking at a steal of the draft should he fall outside the lottery (which he did). One point made there was that an athlete this adaptable, this unique, should not be limited by factors of role projection – in other words, we shouldn’t force the limits of our own imagination on him.

Regardless, I’ll be fascinated to see if the processing ever fully unlocks Miller’s potential on both ends, a conundrum that was on full display in Las Vegas. Imagine Miller playing ‘Monkey in the Middle’, for example – his combination of size and athleticism would make him a nightmarish player to try to complete a pass over.

But take a play like this, where Miller is tasked with tagging the roller as the ‘low man’ on the weak-side:

You just don’t see any of those special movement skills or fierce athleticism that may eventually make him a devilish disruptor on defense. It’s a robotic slide over to the paint, then a basic closeout to the corner that is too late to prevent a clean 3-point look. Miller looks, respectfully, more like a YMCA coach showing how it’s down than a preternaturally gifted athlete.

Combine plays like that with holding the ball too long or missing cutters on offense, and his play from Summer League, to me, was fully representative of the MIller conundrum: In order to unlock what we know he is capable of, his basketball brain has to catch up to his body. I will be enthralled by this development in the coming years for Miller.

But as you may have guessed, given the prompt for this roundtable, Miller was often impressive in his minutes in Vegas. It wasn’t just the shot-making, though making seven threes in five games, as well as an array of mid-range shots, was a welcome sight. I was delighted to see Miller frequently use his size on the inside, aggressively posting up and sealing perceived mismatches in the lane. Now, again, this was Summer League, meaning a lack of offensive identity and, well, passing ability as a unit meant Miller’s Timberwolves teammates did not frequently get him the ball in these situations.

But becoming an efficient off-ball mover bodes well for those instincts I mentioned. And combine a willingness to post-up and rebound (the latter of which we know Miller can do) with potential shot-making from deep, and suddenly, Miller is the coveted offensive player who can play in a five-out offense or be the ‘one’ in a four-out, one-in offense.

Those were just two ultimately fruitless in which Miller tried to leverage his size into a good look at the rim, the first of which had some small part in creating a good look at the rim for a teammate, but the G-League Ignite product was relentless in Vegas. It was incredibly refreshing to see Leonard Miller, who may project as a big guard on offense, be so active and willing to use his size down low. That’ll make guarding him a whole lot more problematic for defenses. 

@BeyondTheRK – MarJon Beauchamp’s shooting touch, decision-making, scoring versatility

MarJon Beauchamp has looked like the best player on the floor in multiple Summer League games. MarJon’s feathery shooting touch, decisive decision-making, and smooth scoring versatility have stood out for the second-year Milwaukee Buck.

In game one, MarJon led a second-half comeback victory for Milwaukee, aided by strong defense from teammates like Andre Jackson’s double block possession. After a slower first half in his first game, MarJon took the keys to the car and revved the engine; Beauchamp rallied from a 2/9 start from the field to convert 7/9 FG in the second half, finishing with 23 PTS on 50% FG% and 8 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Moving at a more controlled pace, with deliberate footwork, fundamental post-moves, and tight handles to create his own shot from all three levels.

Countering pull-up jump shots with elbow fades and even a self alley-oop slam to open his second game. Somewhere off in the distance, wherever Tracy McGrady was in that moment, it’s nice to think T-Mac looked up, smiled, and nodded in approval.

In game two, Beauchamp stayed in rhythm from the game prior, scoring 20 PTS on 7/13 FG, racking up a block and steal, attempting 8 free throws after 5 the first game.

MarJon using his respected jumper to pump-fake and draw defenders in the air is a highly-aware veteran move to create the most efficient shot in basketball: free throws

Clean footwork, tight handles, good feel helped Marjon show complete body and ball control with the rock.

Beauchamp has made scoring look smooth and shooting look simple. He was purposeful in his decision-making, attacking the rack for soft touch AND1 finishes, looking to create shots for himself or kick the ball to the open man.

MarJon didn’t see much of a defined role or opportunity in his rookie season. Now with a new head coach, maybe a better fitting role in the rotation arises. It’s no secret Giannis, Brook, and Jrue could use another scoring valve in the halfcourt next to Middleton who gives the team another player who could go off on any given night.

This type of microwave scoring option who can heat up at any moment, score the ball from anywhere on the floor on or off the ball, and add team-first decision making and length to the equation provides a secondary scoring option rotation player, on paper a clean fit as a reserve who offers a tough shot-maker to potentially close games with the defensive-heavy Milwaukee Bucks starting unit.

AJ – Trayce Jackson-Davis’ passing ability, Warriors-style

Despite limited time in Summer League, Trayce Jackson-Davis was able to show what makes him such an intriguing fit with the Warriors. He displayed his usual explosiveness and activity around the rim on both ends, but the reads and quick decisions he flashed as a passer really stood out as well. 

Trayce not only demonstrated the ability to make the simple pass to keep the offense moving, but he had moments of brilliance and made passes that a vast majority of bigs aren’t capable of. One of his passes in particular was eerily reminiscent of another Warriors frontcourt player:

Overall Trayce’s athleticism as a roll man and ability to affect shots at the rim on the other end remain his greatest strengths, but it was very intriguing to see the passing pop as much as it did in his short stint in Vegas, especially knowing how much the Warriors value bigs that can read the floor and make decisions. 

Charlie – Lester Quiñones’ scoring and passing translating from the G-League

After a strong showing in Vegas, LQ might just be one of the best scorers not already in the NBA.

With the Sea Dubs last season, Quiñones posted the 12th highest PPG mark in the league, getting up 10 threes per 36 minutes at a 35% clip. He was used to handling a high scoring load, and did a fair amount of playmaking for the team. Not only did he manage the 2nd highest assist percentage on the team, he posted a strong 1.4 ATO for a score-first wing.

In Vegas, we saw the same strengths: prolific scoring (21.6 PPG, 1st among 5-game players), firing away from deep (9 attempts, ranking 3rd), and a solid base of playmaking (5.2 assists, 9th overall). What impressed the most was how he did it. LQ was very aggressive with getting two feet in the paint, showcasing a strong array of kickout and layoff pases to capitalize on rim pressure. The finishing wasn’t going well for him, but he drew the most free-throws (41) of any player in the tournament.

This is what caught my eyes the most about his stretch of play. The variety in his scoring gives a consistency to his game even when one aspect isn’t working. Without the threes falling, he still used his developing handle to put points on the board in other ways and continue to create pressure for others.

Quiñones has put himself in the conversation for the 14th roster spot, with a two-way certainly in hand. Even if he ends up spending another year in Santa Cruz, it looks like Golden State has found themselves a player in the undrafted Memphis wing.

Michael Neff – OTE alums performed well across the board

In my one-size-fits-all draft strategy article, I said I was fine letting other teams draft Amen and Ausar Thompson. I said this due to the enigmatic nature of their league, Overtime Elite. We had no idea how the Thompsons’ dominance in OTE would translate up to the next level; Dom Barlow’s garbage time and end-of-season tanking minutes were the only real sample we had going into the draft of an OTE player making it to the NBA. So, did dominance in OTE mean that stardom was in their future, or did it simply mean that you were good enough to stick in an NBA rotation? Was Ausar the next Andre Iguodala or the next Keon Johnson? Should Amen have dominated even more given his otherworldly athleticism? 

These questions were not meant to be flippant. Because there was some intriguing NCAA and G-League talent who offered quick avenues to positive contribution and high upside, I would have taken the wait and see approach with the Thompsons and OTE. I wasn’t a skeptic, just agnostic. 

But, as it turns out, OTE has prepared its players for the professional level. I know it is just Summer League, but I’m already more excited about these OTE players and the talent the league will produce in the coming years. Ausar Thompson really did look like prime Iggy out there, with a per game slashline of 13.5/9.8/3.5 to go along with two steals a game. His length, quickness, and anticipation were overwhelming defensively, and the dribbling and connective passing from OTE stuck around. Amen Thompson only played one game, but he looked like a top five athlete in basketball right now. 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks in 28 minutes speaks for itself. No one could stay in front of Amen, and he picked the defense apart with his passing to a degree no one in the Rockets’ young core is close to emulating. 

The Thompsons were the headliners, but it wasn’t all about them. Dom Barlow seems to have built on his athleticism and added more skill to his game. He didn’t attempt any threes, but Barlow’s midrange jumper is looking better. He also averaged 2.0 assists to 1.3 turnovers. What I loved to see from Barlow was how functionally he used his athletic tools. There was a purpose and precision in his movements that I don’t remember seeing from him before. Barlow might have gone from a flash in the pan to a possible contributor for the Spurs moving forward. Even Jazian Gortman and Jaylen Martin, with the Bucks and Knicks respectively, had their moments. Gortman’s creation for himself and others looked strong, and Martin played quality defense and made good decisions for the Knicks.

It is too early to take any overarching lessons from the 2023 Draft. But, OTE already has me on high alert. Not only does OTE look like a viable development path, but a potentially very beneficial one of the right players. I will be keenly monitoring them going forward. Also, note to self: when two of the best passers and ball handlers in the class are also two of the best athletes in basketball, just put them high on your board.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Summer League 2023 Takeaways appeared first on Swish Theory.

The OTE league has six teams made up of primarily high school-aged prospects. The organization has plenty of talent, but the best players that Amen and Ausar (who turned 20 in January) faced up against this season were 18 and 19 years old. This muddies the waters with how valuable their counting stats and film are from this season. I won’t sit here and act like OTE was the highest-quality hoop that I’ve watched. But the good in all this? Amen and Ausar did what they had to do on the court. Their team, the City Reapers, went 14-1 en route to an OTE Championship. Ausar led the league in +/- at +297, and Amen finished second at +285. Somoto Cyril finished third at a distant +172. 

During the pre-season, the twins traveled to Europe for a few exhibition games. They also faced a tough Omaha Blue Crew team in The Basketball Tournament in July 2022, suiting up against some former High Major stars in Marcus Foster and Admon Gilder. The dominance wasn’t quite as sheer (each mustered up just 9 points versus the Blue Crew), but the twins were the two best athletes on the floor during every pre-season game in which they appeared. Amen, in particular, was all over the place defensively, recording 5 steals and 4 blocks versus Mega Bemax and 3 steals and 2 blocks during The Basketball Tournament. There were flashes of brilliance from both. There were also some poor shooting games. 

Aspiring prospects have been making the jump from the NCAA to the pros for decades. The same can’t be said for OTE’s players. There is no frame of comparison that we can look to when projecting these two bright stars to the next level. That has to be scary as hell for NBA front offices. Brandon Miller recording an 11.0 BPM, Jarace Walker having an 8.4% stock rate, and Grady Dick shooting 40.3% from three on 10 attempts/100 as freshmen all give teams comfort. So what do we do with the Thompsons? 

I want to focus on what Amen and Ausar bring to the table. What have they put on tape? It’s easy to flip discussions surrounding their prospect-hood into the “they didn’t play any real competition!” thing. But reducing the conversation to this diminishes the incredible feats that each twin is capable of executing on the basketball court. 

Amen

This play encapsulates how special of an athlete Amen Thompson is. The first step out of the initial spin move is explosive. He goes from having his man up in his grill to holding about 6 feet of separation in the blink of an eye. After snaking the screen, he starts his second spin move, covering a lot of ground with his strides and landing outside the restricted area. And somehow, after finishing his spin, Amen loads up and elevates for a dunk? Where his head is nearly at the rim? Jumping off of two feet in a tight area? 

The craziest aspect of this play is how effortless he makes it look. There are very, very few humans on planet Earth athletic enough to pull a maneuver like this off, and Amen does it without sweating. 

With his acceleration, Amen is a threat to get both feet in the paint whenever he has the ball in his hands. Most importantly, he’s capable of winning with simplicity. He doesn’t have to string together a bunch of moves to generate a quality advantage, which is the way it should be against pre-professional competition. He doesn’t lack a deceptive handle – he just isn’t overly reliant upon it. Here he gets a switch, and all it takes is a simple right-left cross to get his man stumbling into next week. He finishes with an uncontested dunk hopping off his right rather than both feet this time around. 

Amen’s handle isn’t the tightest, sometimes losing control of the ball or getting stripped on digs. It’s something that will need to improve at the next level, but he has a little bit of a longer leash since the burst is so damn special. It’s rare to find players that can change direction at full speeds while getting to the rim. Stuff like the clip below is reserved for the Jaden Iveys and Ja Morants of the world, guards who Amen has 3-4 inches on. 

Once Amen gets downhill, he has a nice bag of scoring tricks. His hang-time is absurd, capable of floating in the air for what feels like an eternity and contorting his body to finish at difficult angles. He uses both hands, often going to a lefty reverse when driving to his right. He isn’t perfect. Occasionally he’ll drive into a crowded paint and force up a difficult look or leave his feet too far away from the cup and try to out-muscle rim protectors. But still, his size, body control, and athleticism give him access to finishing windows that are unavailable to others. He’s also developed into a foul magnet, an encouraging improvement from last season. In 2021-22, his free throw rate across all competitions was .296. This past year, he improved to a whopping .438. 

Part of what makes Amen so appealing as a slasher is that he doesn’t merely drive to score. He constantly looks to get his teammates involved. A lot of the reads he makes seem pretty simple. 1) Blow by man. 2) Draw help at the rim. 3) Kick to the corner or dump off to the dunker spot. 1) Gets a step on his opponent. 2) Draws help in the gap. 3) Finds a teammate one pass away. He’s a 6’7” walking paint touch – many of these windows are going to be big and seemingly obvious, but Amen being able to capitalize on them is super encouraging. 

In his 20 OTE games, he averaged 6.8 assists per game. I don’t think it’s crazy to dub him the best passer in this class, and he balances his scoring and playmaking well. The vision is there, picking out cutters and hitting them off a live dribble. He’s excellent at manipulating defenders with his eyes, and his deliveries are unique. Amen is a rampant jump passer, which gets him into trouble at times. But he hangs in the air for so long that he’s usually able to figure out a plan. Transition is another area where he makes his presence felt as a passer, constantly looking for hit-ahead opportunities. 

Here, he gets doubled with his back to the basket and zips a cross-court skip pass to the corner. That is some mesmerizing accuracy and vision. 

Let’s get to the elephant in the room: the jumper. To put it bluntly, Amen’s 3-ball does not go in often. Two seasons ago, he shot 22.0% from three and 52.6% from the foul line. Combining the OTE season stats and his pre-season games, he went 25.3% from three and 68.0% from the line, upping his volume from 2.0 to 2.9 attempts per game. Improvement! It may not seem like much, but Amen has made real strides with his jumper. It’s less of a push shot than it was a year ago, and the right leg kick/spread eagle is less pronounced on his spot-ups. Still, the ball comes out as a line drive. 

Amen’s shot is far from a sure thing, and getting him to even a league-average level will take time and energy. The big question is, how much will his shooting hold him back? I don’t think the “defenses will be able to ignore him” answer is correct. Teams can go under screens against him, but Amen can use that space and accelerate into the paint. I think issues arise if he finds himself in a stagnant offense, standing around off-ball. In that situation, his presence could muck up spacing and seriously harm an offense. 

The pull-up middy is perhaps a bit more attainable on his rookie contract and is a shot he’ll need to have if he is to hit a true superstar outcome. There are encouraging blips of using his change-of-pace and snaking screens to get to his spots. The strange leg kick certainly should be cleaned up. 

While it isn’t a consistent shot in his bag yet, Amen still manages to find ways to win as a creator without it versus lower-level competition. Below, he decelerates to create separation. Rather than pulling up, he eats up that space and creates a laydown window. 

Defense in the OTE is difficult to evaluate. Amen is aggressive in help, constantly looking for opportunities to create turnovers. There are moments where his length and speed allow him to blow up passing lanes. But this approach doesn’t always pay off. He too often finds himself out of position. He covers ground incredibly well, but sometimes the closeouts are too long. Other times he just doesn’t close out at all or completely loses track of his man. 

His generational vertical athleticism translates to the defensive end of the floor, as Amen is one of the best shot-blocking wings/guards in this class. His vertical pop off of two feet is absurd and allows him to smother shots. Look at this possession from The Basketball Tournament, where he slides with his man before shooting up like a rocket ship to stuff a lay-up attempt. 

And here he is defending a two-on-one in transition, somehow tracking the ball and elevating to block this shot directly after turning. There is a lot to clean up here, but if Amen can cut down on the gambling, there is a path to him being a value-adding defensive player. 

Ausar

Again – the OTE is a difficult place to scout defense, but I love what I’ve seen from Ausar on that end of the floor. He has some of the best hands I’ve ever evaluated. He starts this possession with some nice sliding to force his man baseline and converts to low-man mode after the offense resets. The moment the dump-off comes, Ausar deflects the ball and forces a turnover. Honestly, this is far from a perfect defensive possession. He’s playing pretty upright and is ball-watching, but he somehow manages to locate the ball and swipe down in an instant. 

There are more technically sound defensive possessions to show from Ausar. This is absolutely hounding defense, moving his feet, prying at the ball, and making life hell for the opposing ball-handler. He finishes by helping at the nail and manhandling his way into a steal. 

Ausar makes his presence felt as a shot-blocker too, with the length to slide and engulf layups and the feel to rotate and protect the rim from the weak side. Watch the hands in the first clip of the compilation below, forcing a tie-up without fouling before swatting the rim attempt away. And look at him soar for that ridiculous transition block. 

Jumpiness is an improvement point. Ausar can get overambitious on closeouts and jump on up-fakes.

With how unique and well-rounded of an athlete Amen is, it’s easy to forget that Ausar is a 40+ inch vertical guy in his own right. He doesn’t have the same raw first-step burst or contortion abilities of his brother, but who does? Ausar’s cutting athleticism pops off the screen. He has excellent timing, explodes into gaps well, and is a powerful two-footed leaper that can get his head to the rim without any problems. He has great anticipation on the offensive glass and pounces when his man’s head is turned in the wrong direction. 

It seems that Ausar has been pitched as the “off-ball” twin. This isn’t necessarily the case, as Ausar has received plenty of creation reps with the OTE. Ausar isn’t as blessed athletically as his brother, but he is capable of getting downhill off the bounce. However, he doesn’t create advantages with as much simplicity as Amen. He can string together some nice dribble combos to get by his man, but he loses control of the ball now and then, and his standstill burst is merely good rather than outstanding. Because of these factors, Ausar finds himself stuck in the in-between areas with no place to go but tough leaner-ville.

Ausar is also one of the best passers from the wing in this class. Because the advantages he creates aren’t as obvious, he doesn’t have access to every window. But he’s capable of executing simple drives and kicks and hitting the roller or popper as a ball-screen handler. His lobs to cutters and bombs in transition are notably accurate. I mean, this is about as accurately placed as a full-court as you’ll ever see.

The vision isn’t always consistent. Here, he drives baseline, jumps, and misses a wide-open teammate under the basket. 

Ausar’s yearlong shooting numbers are worrisome. 28.3% on 4.4 attempts/game with a 65.3 FT% is pretty rough across all competitions, but I don’t think the shot is broken. He has some of the lower body kick-out issues of Amen, but it isn’t as pronounced. Ausar showed growth as the season progressed. In nine games from January 1st onwards, he shot 33.8% from deep and 76.1% from the foul line. The sample is small of course, but it’s encouraging that he improved over the year. In 5 OTE playoff games, Ausar shot 38.5% from three on 7.8 attempts/game. The volume bump there is the most notable for me, as he looked far more comfortable firing versus unders and shooting over contests off the catch. 

Ausar has flashed some impressive shot-making off the bounce as well. His high release point allows him to shoot over contests, and he flows from dribble into shot more smoothly than you’d expect. 

In Sum

Amen is one of the most fascinating creator prospects I’ve ever encountered, a rim pressure maven with size, unmatched run/jump/change-of-pace athleticism, and a preternatural feel for the game. He’s the rare lead perimeter initiator who may genuinely provide defensive value. It feels absurd for someone with strengths as strong as his to fall outside of the top 3. 

Ausar has the chance to be a big-time NBA wing defender – someone who can make life difficult for the Tatums and Lukas of the world while also bringing value away from the ball. Offensively, there’s a wide range of outcomes here. Is the shooting bump real? How gravitational can the pull-up become? Ausar has the handle and passing chops to provide secondary or tertiary creation value, but where the shot lands will dictate how much value he provides in that role.

Maybe the OTE context scares you. Maybe the jumpers scare you. But man, I have a hard time viewing the twins as anything but elite NBA prospects. These are guys with the potential to be real difference-makers at the next level, players who can be core pieces on contending rosters. 

The post Making Sense of the Thompson Twins appeared first on Swish Theory.

The basketball gods must love breakfast tacos. The San Antonio Spurs struck gold in the lottery once again, where their record is somehow even more impressive than in the postseason. 

Victor Wembanyama is a reality-breaking prospect with the potential to do just about anything you could think up. Winning the lottery changed the future of the Spurs in an instant, but with it came the enormous weight of expectation.

The task of building a title contender around the NBA’s next superstar is both an exciting and unpredictable adventure. Nobody like this has ever existed on an NBA floor, there is no playbook for success. The shape this team will ultimately take at its peak is unknown, but one thing is for certain: there is no time to waste.

Many are resistant to the idea of cashing in trade chips to acquire a star, and for good reason! Finding a player on a similar timeline to Vic is important, and every star available on the market is all but aged out of that window or already looking at enormous future salary commitments. These are not the stars you’re looking for. 

Rather than waiting for the right deal to appear down the line, the idea of being aggressive in the 2023 NBA Draft is one worth exploring. The class is loaded with potential playoff performers that would fit in the long-term vision of the franchise from the top of the lottery all the way into the teens, twenties and potentially even into the early second round. 

Few draft classes are fortunate to have this depth of talent, and for a team like San Antonio looking to build through the draft, that depth is a rare opportunity. The night will begin with the Spurs drafting the future face of their franchise, but the proceeding moments may be the perfect time to strike while the iron is hot. 

For the first time since the departure of Kawhi Leonard, the San Antonio Spurs have the juice. How can they use draft night to ensure the party doesn’t meet a similarly ill-fated demise? It all starts with constructing a roster that is befitting of our foundational star. 

In this piece we’ll cover what assets San Antonio has at their disposal as they begin to build around Victor Wembanyama before taking a deeper look at two potential lead guard options in the lottery and the price it could take to move up. Let’s dive in.

The Assets

Dating back to the Kawhi Leonard trade, San Antonio has slowly accumulated tradable assets with future first round picks and young players exceeding their draft position. I’ve divided the existing assets from draft picks to players on contract into similarly valued groups below.

A few points of clarification. 

Zach Collins is good. Yes, the injury concerns are real and he’s only really had half as season as an entrenched starter. Popovich has come out very strongly in favor of Collins manning the five spot, even in the case of winning the lottery. Vic’s camp has stated publicly he sees himself as a forward, trading away the only capable starting center on the roster seems infeasible within that construct.  

Vassell, Sochan, Johnson and Branham all represent effective, cost controlled youth the team will lean on when first building around Wembanyama. All four have proven themselves capable NBA players with meaningful upside, even if they have been over-tasked in recent years.

That last point is worth emphasizing. This team needed a star desperately. The roster was chalk-full of fun complementary young pieces, but the end result was a bunch of talented 20-year-olds being forced to do too much. With Wembanyama’s arrival in San Antonio, a more functional structure should begin to take place. 

It would not be surprising for all four of the above mentioned players to have a more efficient and impactful offensive season. This past season, Keldon Johnson posted a higher usage rate than DeMar DeRozan and Devin Vassell’s usage was higher than Dejounte Murray. Beyond that, the Spurs were the worst team in the league at creating and maintaining advantages.

Both Keldon and Devin are incredibly intriguing long-term pieces, but that is far from ideal given their comparative skillsets.  With each party sliding down a run in the proverbial pecking order (on both ends of the floor), the game should start to become easier.  

In the case of Keldon Johnson, this feels particularly prescient. Keldon’s game begins with ferocious downhill rim pressure. While not always the most efficient scorer, Keldon is at least putting his shoulder into his defender, putting his head down and getting to the rim. 

The presence of Wembanyama, and the natural gravity he will command every time he’s on the court, should open up driving lanes and finishing angles for Keldon that he has yet to experience.  Moving on from Keldon should come with a very real (and immediate) upgrade. 

Regarding the pick from Charlotte, everywhere I look simply refers to it as a lottery protected first round pick. The only hangup? It converts to two seconds if not conveyed this year. 

Charlotte was one of the worst teams in the league last year and their odds of a playoff push are meek at best. That is a fake first, something the team should have no problem moving on from, but may make a difference for a team looking to bolster the appearance of their return in the realm of public opinion. 

The Raptors first will almost surely convey next year, and is the most interesting of the protected picks. The Bulls first has favorable protections as well, but with a longer lead-time the value of that pick is less, but still notable in trade talks. Those two picks, in conjunction with the Charlotte pick, should be seen as the immediately movable assets.

Buying back into the first of a loaded draft class isn’t going to come cheap and with that kind of price the fit needs to be sublime. The right deal could give the Spurs a head start towards building their next dynasty, but could that deal look like? We’ll start at the top.

The Drink Stirrers

The current Spurs roster is littered with youth and talent, but lacks a true initiator on the perimeter. Victor Wembanyama will be a defensive menace and mismatch nightmare the moment he enters the league, but the idea of building an offense around him at this point can only be seen as over-aggressive. Vic is a scorer, and building his footing there is the first order of business.   

Finding a guard that can grow alongside Wemby while capitalizing on the inherent gravity he creates seems like the first place to look. Since the departure of Dejounte Murray (but really Tony Parker if you think about it) the Spurs have lacked a true initiator for their offense. The patented drive and kick offense spent much of the last half-decade dying on the vine due to a lack of on-ball juice. 

Adding Vic as a front-court focal point helps alleviate some of their offensive concerns, but the team will need to find a long-term answer at point guard before it can begin a serious championship push. Rather than forcing the issue with an aging vet or out of position youngster this draft offers a few different solutions to the Spurs lead guard problem, but only if they are willing to pay the price. 

The Prospect: Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson’s potential fit needs little explaining. Amen has the kind of perimeter advantage creation you can’t teach, the inevitable kind where he seemingly teleports into the paint before your very eyes. As a passer, his court awareness and flair for the spectacular make him not only one of the most exhilarating watches of the cycle, but the ideal co-star for Vicor Wembanyama. 

The team has been reported to be highly intrigued by the prospect of drafting Amen, and while winning the lottery makes that more complicated, the very idea is enticing enough to be worth exploring what it could take, and if a deal would be worth the price. 

The Pitch: The Perfect Fit Co-Star 

The case for why to do it is simple: this team needs an injection of perimeter size, athleticism and playmaking. Amen checks all of those boxes, and there is genuine reason to believe San Antonio is the best place to maximize his growth.

With a clear primary option in Wembanyama and complementary spacing galore there is an offensive safety net in place for Amen to gradually grow his game without being overburdened during his development. Regardless of whatever the trade package would be, San Antonio will have a well-spaced floor next season. They just need someone to get them the ball, and Amen is the most creative passing prospect since Lamelo Ball, and honestly there isn’t much competition.

There are concerns about his ability to score efficiently in the halfcourt without the threat of a jumper, but the spacing of a Wemby/Collins front court should help alleviate most of the finishing concerns against size. Now, if only San Antonio had a history of slowing building workable jumpshots. Wait…

Amen Thompson is the best drive and kick point guard prospect in a long time. It doesn’t get better than this. 

Defensively the fit is a positive (and familiar) one. Amen is a remarkable quick-twitch athlete with all of the tools to be an absolute menace for opposing backcourts. He is a more gifted defender than a refined one feasting on highlight-reel steals and breakaway dunks, but his technique when navigating ball screens and general consistency can leave you wanting more. .

His time at OTE was less engaged defensively than you would prefer from a prospect where defensive impact is a potentially large swing skill, but that feels just as indicative of the environment as the prospect. Refining outlier athletic tools and instincts despite a thin frame is a project that sounds incredibly familiar.

Amen Thompson has many of the same qualities that made Dejounte Murray such an impactful defender for San Antonio. His penchant for jumping passing lanes and athletic lunacy can change the course of a game on its own, that energy just needs to be harnessed. 

Dejounte’s ultimate impact was kneecapped by a failure to surround him with adequate defensive talent. Great guard defense cannot create a good defense on its own, much less a great one. With Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan on the roster, Amen would have a much different context, one with the infrastructure to insulate and enhance Amen’s defensive playmaking. 

The Price: Devin Vassell 

Well friends, we’ve made it to the wet blanket portion of the program. By all accounts, the pick used to draft Amen Thompson will come at an exorbitant price. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. 

Moving into the top 4 of this draft would be all but impossible. It would cost assets San Antonio doesn’t have (a young All-Star wing) or the teams owing the picks are not motivated to trade with San Antonio (Houston). Amen would almost certainly need to fall beyond the Rockets at four, and that feels ludicrous given how well he fits with their young core. 

The Harden return, Portland trade rumors and Charlotte’s general unpredictableness muddies the waters just enough for a glimmer of hope to sneak through. Trading into the lottery is a rare occurrence and, in a draft with this talent level, will almost certainly require a combination of players or future picks. 

Getting into the top half of the lottery should Amen begin to slide, namely Detroit or Orlando at 5 and 6, would most likely cost Devin Vassell and potentially some additional sweetening on the fringes. Historically speaking, trading into the top seven of the draft is expensive and generally requires a later first (something San Antonio doesn’t have), or it is part of a larger star trade package. 

That is an enormous price to pay, particularly so given you would have drafted your franchise cornerstone not thirty minutes prior. It would take an incredibly fortunate set of circumstances and an enormous risk from San Antonio, but I think it is something they would have to consider. 

The hardest part about building a genuine contender in the NBA is finding a true-blue second star. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are incredibly fun and valuable pieces to the team, but that is an enormous expectation to put on two players without reliable tools for creation.

Amen would immediately become the primary creator for this team, and his strengths make the rest of this roster better. We know the team is higher than most on both Thompson twins, and Amen fits like a glove. If you can keep your cache of high-value draft picks intact while adding the perfect point guard for your system and franchise cornerstone, you have to consider that deal. 
Trading Vassell would feel a whole lot like trading team-favorite George Hill back in 2011. An incredibly heavy price to pay in the moment, but one that could look a whole lot smaller in the rear-view mirror.

Ultimately, I highly doubt Amen falls into a “gettable” range for the Spurs. If he did, I would be incredibly tempted to pull the trigger, but dealing Vassell (an ideal spacing wing for the future Spurs) feels like a step too far for the team. If there is a way to get the deal done with a collection of Keldon, Branham and draft capital I would pounce on that in an instant, but even as I type this I can see pigs flying around my office. Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

The Prospect: Anthony Black

Anthony Black entered this season as part of a star-studded Arkansas recruiting class where he was viewed as a defensive-minded guard with real passing chops but limited on-ball value due to his difficulty scoring in the halfcourt. 

He was hardly the headliner of his class, but ended the year as the widely-viewed best prospect on the team and likely Top 10 pick. Without an efficient jumper, Black had to rely on other means for creating efficient offense, and in doing so showed what makes him an intriguing target for San Antonio should they choose to trade up. 

The Pitch: The Versatile Guard of the Future

Anthony Black began the year as the lead guard for the Razorbacks as Nick Smith Jr. recovered from injury. Immediately, his ability to pressure the rim popped. Black is an incredibly bouncy athlete that can rise up and dunk at a moments notice, but it was his craft running the pick and roll that stood out.

Without a workable jumper off the bounce, Black thrived playing with Trevon Brazille operating as a genuine pick and pop threat. He is excellent at using his handle to keep a defender on his back and manipulates both his space and timing to get off quality looks at the hoop.

His touch around the rim was largely solid with some exciting flashes using his floater, making a few ludicrous, heavily contested looks. There were a few clunkers and strange moments, but his overall craft as a finisher was impressive. Coupled with his vision and timing as a passer, Black profiles well as a potential drink-stirrer for the future Spurs.

From a complementary skills perspective, Black is an excellent cutter, where his athleticism really pops. He has a great awareness of the space around him and a knack for finding crevices in a defense. In a future where defensive attention is largely focused on Victor Wembanyama, Black has the creativity and athleticism to punish defenses consistently. 

His jumper was rough this year, but his touch as a finisher and passer are both very good. The form looks uncomfortable now, with a harshly cocked wrist and uneasy energy transfer, but it is far from un-fixable. If the shot comes around, he profiles as a guard who can not only initiate offense but play off of Wembanyama in an equally effective way.

Defensively, Black is just about everything the Spurs value in a guard, yet again in a remarkably familiar sense. He has active hands at all times, blowing up plays and tipping passes despite an average wingspan. His athleticism plays well off-ball jumping passing lanes or as a tertiary rim protector, but more than anything he’s incredibly sound.. 

Black keeps his feet underneath him, is never flustered and even if he’s overmatched physically, is going to find a way to contest your shot no matter what. Dereck White became a fan (and coaching staff) favorite for exactly that brand of hyper-competent defense. He is a glue guy, filling the crevices of your defense. Need someone at the point of attack? No problem. An off-ball shooting specialist? Perfect. A shot-creating off-guard? Ant Black has you covered.

That kind of positional versatility, defensively and (potentially) offensively is incredibly hard to find, and even more valuable when constructing a roster around a singular, universe-engulfing star. Over the course of a decade plus of hopeful contention, the versatility to change your role to fit the current personnel, and excel while doing it, is an invaluable trait. Black addresses the needs of this current roster and has the moldable skillset to continue to fill in the gaps as they appear. 

The Price: Keldon Johnson

The stretch of picks from 7-11 (Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas, Orlando) seems like the natural resting place for Black’s draft stock. It is hard to imagine him falling past 11 at the absolute latest with a very real chance he goes in the top eight. 

Buying a pick in the top ten is a huge ask, and one that is likely to require genuine player compensation to complete. Keldon would appear to carry the most trade value in the open market amongst movable players and his off-ball scoring and energy would be welcome in a number of places in the lottery. 

With San Antonio’s continued belief in big-ball lineups and their incumbent center Zach Collins it feels like a fairly safe assumption the plan is to play Wembanyama at the four going forward. After Jeremy Sochan’s excellent rookie season, it is hard to envision a starting lineup without him in it. The fit there is hopeful, but one that leaves Keldon without a place in the starting lineup.

Does that mean Keldon has to be moved? Certainly not. There is still a meaningful role for Keldon, it just may not be as a starter. That reality, and the value of his declining salary over the next four years, makes him an intriguing trade chip.

A one-for-one deal involving Keldon and Black is something worth considering just on the basis of improved roster context, but it is by no means a home run. Black’s shot from distance is a real question mark that will take multiple seasons to iron out. He is not a lost cause, but the form is far from ideal and is a real hindrance in terms of versatility. 

He tested incredibly well athletically at the combine, but that doesn’t seem to translate as effectively on-ball. His handle is solid and finishing package strong, but there is a lack of undeniability you look for in shot-deficient guards. 

If the cost is purely draft capital, somewhere in the ballpark of the Toronto and Chicago firsts (you can throw in the Charlotte fake first), gambling on a lead ball-handler that is an incredibly solid bet as a connector feels like a smart bet to make. Black would make everyone on this roster better, even if he struggles beyond the arc as a rookie. That improved context is the whole sell, and it makes the idea of moving on from one of the very players he would help feel uninspired.  

The price of two or three protected firsts is nothing to sneeze at, but all three of those picks are incredibly limited in upside and as such are relatively low risk trade tools. Better yet, the draft day deals between OKC, New York, Charlotte and Detroit last year provides a proof of concept for a buy-in. Holding onto your own firsts and Atlanta’s unprotected picks is the priority. These are not the picks to be wringing your hands over. 

Black is largely mocked to go in the top 10 with a bevy of point guard-hungry teams waiting in the heart of the lottery. The odds he falls to a pick that can be acquired with protected future picks feels slim, but with more than a few guard options rising up boards crazier things have happened. Black could prove a worthy gamble, but finding the right price may prove to be a complicated task.

The Wrap

If there is one major weakness on this roster, it is perimeter initiation. Last year, this team was too often stuck behind the eight ball in the half court, hoping for a contested make or defensive lapse.

With Victor Wembanyama, the need to rectify that weakness only intensifies. Getting your star player easy looks in the flow of the offense is a necessity, and  finding a proper lead guard should be at the top of the to-do list this summer. 

Anthony Black represents an intriguing option, but not one without its flaws. His combination of size, athleticism and ball skills is highly converted around the league today for the same reasons he would be a great fit in San Antonio. He would be a meaningful upgrade, but that demand could price him out of San Antonio’s range.

One of Nick Smith Jr, Cason Wallace, Bilal Coulibay and Anthony Black will fall into the late lottery and potentially all the way into the mid teens. Black has had more Top 10 momentum early, but I would prefer Wallace and Smith to Black for the Spurs regardless of price. The immediate fit of a real guard shooter is too enticing, with both options presenting an equal (or greater) ultimate upside, even if it may look a little different. 

Amen Thompson is an entirely different equation as he will almost certainly be drafted before Ant Black, but may be a more sensible option as a trade-up target. The price for Thompson would be steep, but his upper-echelon athleticism and awareness represent an enticing proposition. 

The shot questions are even more severe, but the highs are insurmountably higher. That’s why the thought he even falls out of the top four feels preposterous, an idea clinging to life with Portland Trailblazer workout videos, James Harden’s homesickness and an undying belief in eventual draft night chaos.

It would be an enormous gamble to put together the kind of trade package it will take to draft Amen, even if he were to fall. Moves like that bring a GM rings or a pink slip and you never really know ahead of time. San Antonio will begin the night drafting the new face of their franchise. Finding a proper co-star is no easy task and opportunities wont come along often. Sometimes, the price is worth the pain. 

The post The San Antonio Spurs Have the Juice appeared first on Swish Theory.

The post Ep 9: Wishing on a Wing: Knicks Edition with Oscar (@Oscar_Hoops) appeared first on Swish Theory.

Of all the position groups in the loaded 2023 Draft, the quality and depth of toolsy wings with promising secondary skills has a case for the strongest. Looking for a world-class athlete with wing stopper upside and improving perimeter skill? Ausar Thompson is your guy. Want an even better wing athlete who intuitively approaches problems on both ends like a 5’9” point guard? His twin brother Amen fits the bill. Maybe you’re searching for a combo forward who can offer similar secondary rim protection and driving upside as the Thompsons, with added bulk to handle interior duties? Jarace Walker is perfect. And if you just want to bet on a young prospect with an outlier skill and projectable frame, Dillon Mitchell and Anthony Black offer outlines of exciting (though murky) star outcomes.

But between all of these players, one constant remains: none of them can shoot! There are certainly different degrees of bad shooters among this group, but none of them project to reach the level of shooting consistency necessary to draw hard closeouts. “If they shoot, they’ll be a steal!” is a common trope in draft coverage, and it’s easy to understand why — statements like this aren’t staking out much ground when applied to super-athletes tasked with filling out the only glaring hole in their games. Yes, Amen Thompson will be good if he shoots 35%+ from 3 on volume! Instead, “What if they don’t shoot?” is a much more nuanced and worthwhile question, and one that often goes unexplored.

The term “Non-shooting wing” just doesn’t sound right; shooting is central to the concept of the idealized offball wing. All the offensive responsibilities that are expected of offball wings today are either directly or indirectly impacted by their shooting: 

A) maintaining space for creators via shooting gravity, 

B) attacking advantages off the catch (often closeouts, which must be drawn in the first place, back to point A), and 

C) finishing advantages — often by shooting a jumpshot.

This is no doubt an oversimplification of role, and category B on its own contains a host of different microskills and play types that suit wildly different kinds of players. Still, it bears repeating that a lack of shooting gravity on the wing completely undermines the integrity of the catch-22 that modern drive-and-kick offense is designed to create.  So, how valuable is a player who bucks their own system? Is it worth the effort to fit a player who will always be a square peg into what will always be a round hole?

In these terms, non-shooting wings seem so fundamentally counter-intuitive that they can’t possibly be net positive offensive players in the NBA. And yet…over the course of NBA history, plenty have made it work! Though it certainly takes a special combination of ancillary offensive skills and defensive prowess, there’s a handful of players who’ve succeeded in this role – often similar only in key weakness, but wildly different in archetype.

So what can we take away from this special batch of outliers? That’s what this series is all about: detailing the development path, usage, and unique skills of the non-shooting wings who were able to carve out a career in the NBA, then applying that knowledge to the wings of the 2023 Draft.

*A quick disclaimer:  the term “non-shooting” doesn’t leave much wiggle room, but for our purposes let’s define it as a player who isn’t a good enough shooter to draw a closeout in an NBA playoff setting. Some players we’ll cover won’t even come close to this threshold, while others will straddle it at points throughout their careers. I want to emphasize that we aren’t looking for 1:1 direct player comps to apply to the ‘23 wings; instead, I’ll aim to learn more about the different historical precedents to success as a NSW, and become familiar with the different tools and counters that these players use in order to stick in the league.

Introducing Boris

Boris Diaw’s career trajectory from lanky jumbo ball handler to stout connective big is one of the forgotten gems of recent development history. Billed as a shooting guard entering the 2003 Draft, his intersection of passing guile and positional versatility at 6’8”(7’3” wingspan!) drove his appeal as a 1st round prospect. He spent his formative years at 1st division French club Élan Béarnais, where he played an understandably modest role as a secondary creator. Even as a relatively low usage player, Diaw (#12/#13) flashed the impressive processing speed and ball skills that would go on to define his NBA career. 

Although he would later garner a reputation as a limited athlete, Diaw’s leaner frame as a teenager made for some uncharacteristically loud athletic highlights. To those who are only familiar with him from his days in San Antonio, this nimble version Boris would be virtually unrecognizable. Still, it was clear from his pre-NBA tape that he didn’t possess the burst or handle to carry significant NBA creation burden as a guard. Most of his flashes of passing brilliance came when Diaw was operating off of an advantage, rather than getting downhill to generate one himself. Without these invaluable self-created paint touches, teams must find a different way to scheme players like Diaw into opportunities to facilitate against a tilted defense; this is then compounded by not being able to shoot well enough to draw hard closeouts. This problem would later become one of the driving conflicts of Diaw’s career.   

After the Hawks selected Diaw 21st overall in the 2003 Draft, he struggled to get his career off the ground. Atlanta tried to use Diaw as an offball wing, used occasionally as a screener but rarely given ball handling or passing opportunities (11.4% and 15.5% USG in his 2 seasons as a Hawk). When non-shooting wings are haphazardly thrown in the corner, they siphon space away from the offense with their lack of gravity — this was the case with Diaw.  He was treated like any other wing, cast aside as an afterthought and expected to mold around the Hawks’ established creators in Steven Jackson and Jason Terry. 

This is a recipe for disaster when developing a player like Boris; prospects with unique flaws (15/76 from 3 as a Hawk) must be deployed intentionally with counter-measures that address their key weaknesses. Sticking Boris in the corner as a non-threat from 3 was never going to work out in Atlanta. To make non-shooting wings like Diaw work, you must find creative ways to utilize them within the flow of the offense in ways that hide their lack of shooting gravity, even on plays where they never touch the ball. This would go on to be one of the central themes of Diaw’s career arc. 

Even with limited opportunities, Diaw (#32/#13) continued to flash his upside as a connective passer, especially when dicing up a bent defense: 

After a rocky first 2 years in the league, Boris looked to be on a trajectory out of the NBA if something didn’t change quickly. But while the Hawks were struggling to provide a suitable developmental infrastructure for Diaw, the Phoenix Suns were revolutionizing basketball on the other side of the country.

Suns Tenure + Counters for Lack of Shooting Gravity

Diaw was traded to the Suns after his 2nd year in the league, and entered a cookie-cutter context for his set of skills. With Amar’e Stoudemire’s knee injury keeping him out of almost the entire 2005-06 season, the Suns had a gaping hole at power forward. The 6’8” Diaw, exclusively a perimeter player up to this point in his career, made an ambitious move to the 4 which opened up new paths for success and gave his development arc new life. 

It’s important to remember that the duties of a power forward in 2005 are very different from the duties of a power forward in today’s game. In 2022, length, ground coverage and shooting range are no longer valuable add-ons at the position, but requirements. Gone are the days of bumbling 6’8” bruisers camping out in the dunkers spot (many 4s today are just taller wings!). In fact, If Diaw was a prospect in 2022, he likely would’ve been tagged as a power forward from the start. But in 2005, a player who had only averaged 5 rebounds/36 the season prior moving to power forward was seen as staunchly avant-garde.  

So how did Diaw make it work?

 Let’s revisit the questions posed earlier in the section: How can you hide a poor shooter most effectively while also leveraging their passing acumen? What are the other ways to manufacture some form of gravity for a non-shooter, other than simply giving them the ball and letting them drive 20x a game? Mike D’Antoni proposed a solution: Using Diaw as a high-volume screener, DHO operator, and touch passer.

At this junction in NBA history, Diaw was considered extremely lean for a power forward at 6’8”/215 lbs. He was a relatively poor screen setter and rebounder – his development as a perimeter-oriented player never put emphasis on improving these skills. His lack of vertical athleticism held him back as a roller, a stark contrast to Amar’e’s dynamism as a lob threat the year prior. 

But the Suns didn’t have anyone better that season, and utilizing Diaw in this role was a compromise – deal with an athletically-limited primary roller, and reap the benefits of Diaw’s elite connective passing, grab-and-go offense, and secondary creation. Putting Boris in screening actions almost every possession minimized the time he spent in the corner, while also giving him opportunities to leverage his decision making and vision as a DHO operator and roller. Phoenix was throwing Diaw in teams’ faces, daring them to ignore him rolling to the rim the same way they did when he was spotted up in the corner. It was an imperfect solution to his lack of shooting gravity, but one that left Diaw a clear net positive on offense, able to stay on the floor for long stretches in a playoff series. 

Even on possessions where Diaw (#3) didn’t make a flashy kickout or throw a pinpoint lob, simply giving him something to do was enough to keep him from negatively affecting the rest of the offense. While he doesn’t necessarily do anything special on this play, limiting the time Diaw spends sitting in the corner as a non-threat is vital to keeping him a tenable playoff player. These “net neutral” plays are key to making any non-shooting wing work in the half court. 

Even in this particular clip, Diaw’s offensive feel manifests itself in a unique way. After handing the ball off, he initially positions himself as if the shooter intends to come off the screen to the right, before wisely flipping his hips at the last moment to seal off a lane to the left and fool the defender. Boris’ feel as a screen setter was a big asset for him in Phoenix and San Antonio. 

There’s no doubt that Diaw left points on the board as a playfinisher, as his combination of poor vertical pop and timidness as a finisher made for many record scratch moments like this:

However, Boris was able to compensate for his limitations as a finisher with his flawless decision making. Diaw excelled as a short roll playmaker, routinely able to find open shooters from various angles, release points, and spots on the floor:

These reps are a good encapsulation of Diaw’s capabilities as a roller. A more explosive player might be able to finish over the help, but Boris is still able to create efficient shots for his teammates via his passing vision and roll gravity:

This unorthodox archetype of pass-first roller was one of the various parts of Diaw’s game that synergized perfectly with the Suns roster.

7SOL Suns 

The 7 Seconds or Less Suns were perhaps the earliest glimpse of how the game is widely played today; in Diaw’s first season in Phoenix, the Suns led the league in pace, 3s attempted, and 3pt%, all by a wide margin. And while Steve Nash’s off-the-dribble shotmaking and pick-and-roll acumen were the foundations of the Suns offense, their group of rangy and versatile snipers on the wing provided the spacing necessary for Nash to operate. Between Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, and (46 games of) Tim Thomas, the Suns had 3 wings who all provided vastly different functionality on both sides of the court, but one thing was consistent: they could all shoot the cover off the ball. The trio shot above 40% from 3 in 2005-06, and combined to attempt 15.8 3s per 36 minutes in regular season action (more than 28 of the 30 NBA teams had as a whole!). 

The Suns’ level of offensive spacing was unprecedented in the basketball sludge of the early aughts, and it benefitted Diaw greatly. Their style of play was tailor-made for a pass-first roller, as Diaw’s finishing struggles are a much easier pill to swallow when his distribution skills are paired with the best kickout options in the league (Phoenix shot 39.9% from 3 in 2005-06!). The trade-off from a high-flying lob threat to an elite decision making roll man is much more appealing when the latter has 3-4 accurate and willing shooters to find on any given possession. 

Shawn Marion, who was a respectable shooter in his own right (33% on 3 attempts/36, which was good for 76th highest volume in the league back then!), provided a unique dimension as a world-class finisher, closeout attacker, and transition handler. He and Diaw enjoyed a rapport in the two-man game, often even hooking up for lobs off of free throw line (!) PnRs when Nash was off the floor.

Diaw commanded bench units in a variety of contexts, able to win as a driver and PnR handler against defensive lineups that were a bit easier to crack than starting units. The handling and athletic limitations that held him back from a full-time role as a ball handler were less evident in this change-of-pace creator role. His combination of length and coordination was the foundation of his appeal as an advantage creator.

Connective Passing (cont.)

Although Boris wasn’t drawing tremendous backline gravity as a roller, the presence of a large man barreling down the lane is often enough to draw some form defensive rotation, especially once Diaw is fed the ball. He’s often able to use his deep post positioning off of rolls to, once again, leverage his passing instincts against a tilted defense in an unconventional way. This idea is similar to how smaller guards can still hold functional rim pressure as downhill drivers, even if they aren’t a threat to finish over significant contests.

Diaw’s blistering processing speed also held value as a perimeter ballmover – even if Boris drew little to no defensive respect as a popper or kickout receiver, his ability to swing the ball half a beat early allowed him to consistently deliver the advantage to a player better equipped to capitalize on it (once again, synergizing perfectly with the Suns array of shooters):

Diaw fit right in with Phoenix’s pension for early clock shot attempts, as he thrived in the artificial semi-transition environment the Suns loved to create (often pushing off of opponent makes!). Defenders are much more likely to sag or help off of a non-shooter when defending a set offense methodically running their sets – less so when scrambling just to get back to their assigned defensive shell. And the possessions when Diaw was being sagged off of were usually when Phoenix’s initial push up the floor had sputtered out, and the offense had to reset (which was thankfully not too often).

Importance of Functional Big Size

Even before his drastic weight gain, Diaw was able to capably function as a 4 on both ends, largely due to his outlier length (his wingspan is 7 inches longer than his listed height!). Although he wasn’t a dominant finisher or rebounder, his frame allowed him to cover the replacement level big duties that come with playing up in the lineup. These extra 3 or 4 inches of range can be the difference between a position-locked wing and a forward with 4 flexibility, even if their power forward skill set hasn’t been realized quite yet. For bigger 3s who aren’t quite ready to guard and rebound against power forwards, their extra length creates potential for skill dev into roles that smaller wings don’t have access to. 

This Diaw sequence against Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks perfectly illustrates the value of functional length for wings trying to play up in the lineup. In Game 1 of the 2006 Western Conference Finals, Boris put up a career-high of 34 points, including the game winning turnaround baby jumper. A chunk of his 23 2nd half points came on post-ups over the Mavericks’ guards, as coach Avery Johnson continued to switch ball screens even while Diaw feasted on Devin Harris and Jason Terry down low for easy buckets or trips to the free throw line.

Midway through the third quarter, Johnson adjusted by sending an extra defender to the ball once Diaw established position in the post. Diaw immediately countered with an adjustment of his own, riffling cross-court skip passes for open 3s once the help committed to the post-up. Although these 3s didn’t fall, Diaw’s “traditional big gravity” as a post-up player allowed him to leverage his “wing”/perimeter skillset as a passer in a unique way and generate quality looks for his team: 

Diaw’s length also held immense value on the defense end. Although this is fundamentally a piece about non-shooting wings on offense, my point is moot if they can’t stay on the floor on the other end! Diaw’s wingspan helped make up for his vertical deficiencies, allowing him to be a tenable defensive 4 even without the athletic tools one would expect from an NBA big.

Spurs Tenure 

Diaw’s tenure in San Antonio was a departure from his early career role as a wing. As a Spur, he leaned into a role as a stretch 4.5, with emphasis on offball movement, screen setting, low post work, and yes, outside shooting! Diaw gained 35 pounds from his 2005 breakout in Phoenix to his final season as a Spur, and this extra bulk had its fair share of trade offs: improved screen setting and post-up capability, but a marked decrease in his already-modest vertical pop. It’s no secret that Boris is a foodie, and this transition from wing to big was undoubtedly accelerated by Diaw’s joie de vivre off the court; as his career went along, his summers consisted less of intense open runs and more of french pastry crumbs. 

Diaw’s career arc is an interesting case study in how different skills can manifest themselves in different ways with only a shift in body type. The brilliant connective passer from Phoenix was clearly still in there somewhere – only now he was doing his damage out of postups, and accessing advantages/high-leverage decision making opportunities via strength-based creation and shooting gravity, instead of as a short roller and DHO operator. Part of this shift in usage can be chalked up to scheme and era, as the league that Boris entered in 2003 was a far cry from the one he left in 2018. It’s especially telling that while Diaw transitioned from a wing to a big over the course of his career, his skillset evolved in the opposite direction; he wasn’t a threat from behind the arc until his early 30s. His body told him to become a big, and the landscape of the league pushed him towards expanding his range; the result was a shift from non-shooting wing to… shooting non-wing.

The name of this series is “Non shooting wings” – Spurs Diaw was neither of those things. Because of this, we won’t spend too much time discussing the minutiae of his time in San Antonio. Still, this stretch of his career throws a wrinkle into the larger argument of this piece. His career arc begs the obvious question: if the emergence of shooting gravity as a requirement rather than a feature for modern wings forced him to become a threat from 3 in order to extend his career, why should he be propped up as a blueprint for other non-shooting wings to follow, who are entering the same league environment that forced him to adapt? Applying historical examples of a seemingly extinct archetype to current-day prospects seems almost ironic in its shortsightedness. That’s the reason why I didn’t write an entry to this series for the archaic bruiser PFs that frequented the early 2000s. The difference between that archetype and Diaw’s is that we’ve seen Boris make his skillset work in an offense with contemporary principles –  the 7SOL Suns prioritized the pace and spacing that rule the league today. 

While the Suns certainly weren’t as progressive as today’s offenses (their 2005-06 .293 3-point attempt rate would’ve ranked dead last in the NBA last season), it’s significant that a team built on modern values made an exception for a connector like Diaw. What’s also significant is that they clearly utilized him mindfully: not just throwing him out on the court as a living hedge against their revolutionary style of 3pt-oriented offense, but instead crafting a unique role heavy in screening and DHO responsibility that limited his time as dead weight off the ball. Wings who could put up more than a few 3s a game were hard enough to find at this time — acquiring multiple who could do that and also be the connective tissue of an offense was even more difficult. So while he didn’t fulfill the first requirement, Diaw complemented Phoenix’s plethora of gunner wings by bringing traits to the table that were hard to find amongst high volume 3pt shooters at this time (connective passing, screen setting, and reliable secondary ball handling).

So if a team like Phoenix was ideal for Diaw, what contexts would be the worst for him? Although the high pick-and-roll was a staple of the Suns offense, it’s exploded in popularity around the league since 2006. Teams like the Clippers or Mavericks who run a lot of high-ball screens insulated by 3 spacers wouldn’t be the best fit for Boris, as  these streamlined offenses don’t leave much room for a secondary screener like Diaw to find a role. His only option would be becoming the primary roller for these PnR-heavy teams, and while this is the solution the Suns used, it’s probably not tenable for teams who run as many PnRs as Dallas or LAC (especially without a 1B roller as dynamic as Shawn Marion). A motion-based offense like the Warriors’ system would suit his skills far better, as their system calls for wings who can set screens, make quick decisions, and attack closeouts – all things Diaw excelled at. 

Boris’ Solution:

Key skills: Elite connective passing + enough scoring juice to keep defenses honest + replacement level big size and functionality to fill tertiary “big man” offensive duties

Role: high volume screener, DHO operator, and secondary ball handler

Ideal context: High pace team with lots of early offense and motion-heavy sets

So which non-shooting wings in the 2023 draft class could draw inspiration from Diaw in their NBA careers?

This piece won’t include lengthy background information on the prospects themselves, but I’ve linked their individual Swish Theory scouting reports in with the blurbs below.

Perhaps the most forward-slanted player we’ll cover in this series, Jarace Walker is the closest of the ‘23 wing prospects to Diaw’s body type. At 6’8”/240, he fulfills the physical requirements necessary to be a good screen setter (though his technique and physicality could use some work). Walker is also a much more natural fit as a roller due to his athletic profile — he’s a dynamic leaper who can get off the floor in a flash and finish through contact. In many ways, Jarace seems like a better fit for Diaw’s role in Phoenix than Diaw himself. Jarace’s ball handling skills are still emerging, but his senior year at IMG was encouraging, and he offers a similar intersection of overwhelming length (7’2” wingspan) and rare coordination for size that fueled Diaw’s off-the-dribble game. He seems like a good bet to meet the thresholds of handling, decision making, and downhill gravity necessary to function as a DHO-heavy creator like Diaw. 

There isn’t much to project with Jarace here; all he needs is reasonably positive handle development and a continuation of his upward trajectory as a decision maker to slide effortlessly into Phoenix Diaw usage, albeit a less dynamic connective passer but more well-rounded playfinisher. Again, the goal here isn’t to shoehorn the prospects into a certain historical role, but Diaw’s offensive diet is too perfect for Jarace to ignore. Even if he never develops as a shooter, Jarace should be able to stay on an NBA floor between his usefulness as a big secondary initiator, roll gravity, and rebounding upside.

Amen Thompson is a much less cut-and-dry fit in Diaw’s archetype. Amen and Boris might be polar opposites in body type and athletic profile, but they churn problems on the court in a similar manner. Just like Diaw, Amen has a tendency to “over-manipulate” the defense, instead of taking the obvious shot or pass. While this habit is endearing coming from an athletically-limited player like Boris (to which the “obvious” lane might not be so easy!), it can be maddening to watch Amen attempt 3 fake passes and end up with an off-balance floater attempt on a drive where he could’ve simply finished over his defender with a head of steam if he attacked with enough gusto. 

If Amen never becomes a viable shooter, it could be difficult to give him a high usage role as a half-court creator. His biggest problem would then become how to leverage his unique physical and processing gifts without utilizing him as a traditional initiator. Diaw’s role as a funky short roller could provide some inspiration here — while neither of the two fit the physical description for a dominant PnR partner,  both are special enough at *something* on the court to cast aside usual thresholds. For Boris, it was his elite connective decision making paired with the Suns array of knockdown shooters. For Amen, his explosiveness in space could allow him to function as a high-volume roller, even without the typical length or strength of a typical PnR big. Especially on his rookie contract, using Amen as a short roller would be a useful offensive wrinkle to scheme him into open runways and decision making opportunities, before his handle is refined enough to consistently generate those looks against point-of-attack pressure. If he doesn’t shoot, The long term vision for Amen’s role in the half court is hazy, but mixing in possessions as a roller could be part of the solution. 

Wings who narrowly missed the cut for this article (but will feature in future entries of the series!): Ausar Thompson, Dillon Mitchell, Anthony Black

What Did We Learn?

The broadest takeaway I have from my time watching Diaw is how important it is for non-shooting wings to find an alternative way to command defensive attention off the ball. For many of the prospects that I’ll cover in this series, their effectiveness on possessions where they actively contribute to the shot attempt isn’t the issue! The problem is the time they spend off the ball as a passive negative, since they can be disregarded on the perimeter. Because of this, finding a niche in the half-court that a NSW can slide into as a net neutral (or even slight negative) can be hugely impactful. Diaw did this by becoming a roller and DHO operator, even when his body type and pre-NBA play style didn’t line up with that role. I sense that each historical player we’ll cover in this series will find a unique solution of their own that allows them to spend minimal time uninvolved in possessions on the offensive end. 

The post Making Non-Shooting Wings Work: Part 1 – Boris Diaw appeared first on Swish Theory.

Amen Thompson is a 6’7” wing who pairs otherworldly athletic gifts with unique movement patterns and burgeoning playmaking instincts. His movement skills and leaping ability are at the center of his appeal as a prospect: Amen’s first step, load time, and vertical pop off of one and two feet are all beyond elite. Perhaps his most freakish athletic trait is the speed of his long strides, which he uses to cover ground impossibly quickly in big space.

Amen loves to accelerate full-throttle towards the rim out of odd body alignments or spots on the floor – he often challenges angles that most other players wouldn’t even consider, much less attack. This trait gives his herky-jerky driving game a unique rhythm that keeps defenders constantly off-balance.

Thompson leverages these athletic gifts to generate constant rim pressure, even with his handle and poise in tight spaces currently at rudimentary levels. He’s a comfortable drive-and-kick passer, rarely pre-determining his decisions off the bounce and able to throw cross-court kickouts accurately with his dominant right hand. He loves to manipulate outnumbered defenders on his drives, frequently faking passes to freeze rotators and exploit the inherent numbers advantage generated by a blowby.

The biggest hole in Amen’s game is his shooting: both his percentages (51% from the line, 25% from 3 in his 1st OTE season) and mechanics (wonky base with an exaggerated leg kick and major disconnect in energy transfer from lower to upper body) leave something to be desired. The development of Amen’s in-between game is arguably just as important to his star outcomes as his 3pt shot; without a reliable push shot or pullup midrange jumper, it’ll be extremely difficult for him to maintain volume as a driver.

While still likely to be a positive on that end, Amen’s defensive upside is diminished slightly by his only non-elite athletic trait, his tight core. He flashes suffocating mirroring skills at the point of attack, but once a ball handler manages to gain a half-step, he can struggle to flip his hips and restack atop the driver. When defending off the ball, Amen is an incredible helpside rim protector, often skying for perfectly timed blocks that few 6’9” wingspan players could dream of. At the next level, Amen would be best utilized in the “roamer” role, able to act as a defensive playmaker to blow up actions with his ground coverage, and provide backline support with his vertical pop and instincts.

On his rookie contract, Amen can thrive as a complementary wing, able to do damage in transition (both as a ball handler and play finisher) and as a connector in the half-court, where his burst can pierce even the slightest lag in rotations and cause defensive breakdowns. I’d also like to see Amen utilized as a screener, especially as a short roller, where he can be schemed into open runways and high-leverage decision making opportunities at the same time. This is somewhat similar to the role Jonathan Kuminga played in his rookie year, where Kuminga (like Amen, a highly touted prospect who was used primarily as an on-ball scorer in his youth career) readily accepted his reduced role as a connecting combo forward. As a long term bet, Amen’s physical tools and passing acumen sketch the outline of a dominant 2-way wing – he just has to fill in the (admittedly large) holes that cloud his projection.

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