BOOMSHAKALAKA!

Joshua Lewis makes the highlight poster dunk of the weekend

Postgame Interview with Joshua Lewis (Blake)

Great game out there. Crazy poster slam! What that feel like?

“Yessir! That felt great, I think that’s the best one I got so far in my career, so that felt really good to get a good one.”

What’s your mentality like entering games?

“Just be locked in. Bring energy. Help lead my team. Especially since we’re in a tough situation with our coach being out right now, so I definitely got to step up and be a big leader on the floor.”

What kind of skill development are you working in practice the most; what are you doing now and what do you hope to develop in the future?

“Just continue to get my handle better and get stronger, stay in the weight room; those are probably the two biggest things I’m working on. And just getting my shot more consistent, for sure”

Are there any players, former or current, that you study, that might inspire your game or model some of your skills after?

“Yeah, recently I’ve been watching a lot of Shai, I really like the way he moves on the court. But just any big guard that’s my size, handles the ball, you know those guys like Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Paul George, Shai, all those type of players, I watch all of them for sure.”

Any recruitment updates? You thinking anywhere, eyeing anywhere?

“Yeah I’ve been talking to Iowa a lot, they’ve been on me a lot. I’ve been talking to Michigan some, Marquette some. I’ve been having some good recruitment, N.C. State some, Texas A&M, just to name a few.”

What’s going to lock it in for you?

“That gut feeling, that’s it. I feel like when you know, you know.”

The Teams

Oak Ridge
Duncanville
Blake
North Broward Prep
Pepperville
Southeastern Prep

The Standout Players

Jamier Jones
Kayden Edwards
Joe Philon
Beckham Black
Jalen Reece
Joshua Lewis
Jason Johnson
Cam Smith
Christopher “Deuce” Hunt
Chudier Dew yak
Ryan Baxley
Zyree Brown

Day 2 Game 3 – Oak Ridge vs. Duncanville

Kayden Edwards and Jamier Jones traded blows back and forth like they were in a heavyweight fight, each dropping 40+ points before the final bell!

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Duncanville outlasted the host team, Oak Ridge, in double overtime late into Saturday night, winning 95-90.

Jamier Jones used his mobility, power, and touch inside to create a walking mismatch near the rim, recording a new career-high 41 PTS & 11 REB.

Kayden Edwards showed out as the highlight prospect of this event, dropping 45 PTS against Oak Ridge after a 30 PT outing the day before against Pepperidge.

Duncanville

#5 6’3” Guard Kayden Edwards – 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL (14/23 FG – 4/10 3P – 13/14 FT)

Explosive quick first step burst. Soft touch finishing at the rim. Money pull-up jumper. Tough shot maker any spot on the court. Tight ball control. Defensive instincts, jumping passing lanes, timing up deflections. Great awareness when to use pump-fakes. Good feel playmaker. Draws fouls attacking the rack and threatening the pull-up.

Kayden Edwards stayed hot shooting all weekend. After a 30 PTS & 10 REB win over Blake the day before, Kayden lit up Oak Ridge for 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – STL, hitting tough bucket after bucket from every angle, drawing fouls and getting downhill with ease, converting 14/23 FG from the field, 4/10 3P from downtown, and 13/14 FT from the pinstripe.

Kayden’s tough shot making off the dribble and ability to burst to the rack with ease was on full display as his standout skills, making any shot from anywhere on the floor.

In the first half of the final game against Oak Ridge, Kayden Edwards got to the rim, hunted contact, and showed off shooting touch at every level: a pick six layup, quick burst to the rim drawing a foul, a strong take to the rim for a finger roll, a clean running FLOATA, a corner triple, a bump and finish at the basket, an AND1 putback in the paint, and a bailout putback middy.

The buckets didn’t slow down in the second half: Kayden drilled a pull-up three, splashed a catch-and-shoot triple, hit a defender with a killer crossover into a layup, made good team-first read extra passes, drew a foul on a pull-up jumper.

His instincts impressed on the defensive end, making a deflection to block a shot under the rim to stop a layup, and even stealing the tip off in an overtime period and getting a defender to leave his feet on a pump-fake.

#0 6’2” Point Guard Beckham Black – 8 PTS – 7 AST – 7 AST – 2 STL (2/5 3P)

Beckham Black, Kayden’s Duncanville backcourtmate and brother of the Orlando Magic’s Anthony Black, impressed with good two-way feel for the game, forcing deflections with defensive instincts, making good reads with the ball, and even pulling up for a handful of off-the-dribble three pointers with one falling through the net in clutch time of a double-overtime victory.

I asked Anthony Black after the game how he would describe his brother, Beckham, as a person off the court:

“Funny guy. Shoot, he’s a kid, so still growing up.

It’s cool to see him maturing, but, a good kid.

Loves basketball, loves to compete. Super proud of him.“

While his teammates filled up the box score, Beckham Black showed his incredible two-way feel for the game.

Looking to make the best decision for the team every time down. Hitting pull-up 3pt jump shots when needed. Active hands deflections timing up forced turnovers. Downhill driver finishing at the rim and looking for open shooters. Racking up assists finding open teammates. Running the offense creating drive and kicks, hockey assists, and potential assists moving the ball after creating advantages.

Black’s vision was on full display in the first half, making a drive-and-corner-kick 3pt assist, a hockey assist that led to a triple, team-first reads for extra passes, a potential assist to the top of the key out of a baselines out-of-bounds set, and a kickout off an offensive rebound to Kayden, even showing off the handles with a killer crossover into the finger roll for good measure.

In the second half, Beckham’s two-way feel for the game was made evident: A wraparound pass to a cutter, a swing pass 3pt assist to Kayden, a drive-and-kick 3pt assist to Deuce, a sick swing pass overhead, a lead pass to the roller in pick-and-roll.
Beckham hit a pair of big threes, one after forcing a steal and walking up to the 3pt line for a pull-up jumper, and another that tied the game late to send it to overtime.

#2 6’1” Guard Christopher “Deuce” Hunt – 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL – 2 AST (8/14 FG – 5/6 3P)

Knockdown C&S 3pt shooter (at least 4 3PM). Active hands digs for steals without fouling. Lookahead passer.

Deuce Hunt brought a reliable scoring option for Duncanville throughout the weekend, posting 18 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 3PM against Blake on Day 1 and balling out on both ends against Oak Ridge on Day 2, dropping 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL.

Deuce showed shooting touch in the clutch, hitting two big free throws to go up by 4 points with 36 seconds left, drilling a catch-and-shoot triple late in overtime, and splashing triples throughout the game.

#4 6’7” Forward Cam Smith – 6 PTS – 2 AST – 4 BLK – 1 STL – 3 Deflections

Shot blocking rim-protection. Quick second jump. Great timing defensive instincts. Smooth stroke 3pt shooter. Grab-and-go handles to bring the ball up the floor. Long length used effectively. Active hands deflections. Good vision passer.

Putting a lid on the rim throughout, Cam Smith came up big on both ends, bringing real D&3 impact, racking up at least 4 blocks, 1 steal, and 3 deflections. Cam dominated one possession with defensive instincts, timing up a block at the rim and recovering with a quick second jump to block another shot right after. Later in the game he even blocked a 3pt shot, somehow extending to the shooter from the paint.

Cam is only credited with 6 PTS, but he stayed ready from behind the arc, knocking down one catch-and-shoot triple, and he made a good play at the rim in transition with a bump-and-finish AND1, scoring three the old fashioned way. Smith kept his head up, finding an open shooter on the drive and kick and an open cutter slicing down the middle of the paint.

#10 6’1 Guard Gary Jones – 6 PTS – 4 REB – 2 STL

#3 6’3” Guard Jirehn Mitchell – 5 PTS – 2 REB

#11 6’0” Guard Chris Gooden Jr. – 2 PTS

Jirehn Mitchell showed touch passing vision on a pass he caught and immediately swung while still in the air and got a stop contesting Jamier Jones by moving his feet and staying long and tall without fouling. In double overtime, Jirehn drew a foul rolling to the rim, while Chris Gooden Jr. made a big winning play taking a charge against Jalen Reece. Gary Jones made smart cuts and tough baskets underneath the rim.

Oak Ridge

#1 6’6″ Forward Jamier Jones – 41 PTS – 11 REB – 4 AST – 4 STL – 2 BLK (18/26 FG)

Tough shot making at the rim. Body control in the post. Controlled driver. Mobility. Agility. Dexerity. Strong and finesse finisher at the rim. Defensive instincts with effective length. Heads up connector passing. Draws fouls driving downhill and in the paint.

Oak Ridge’s Jamier Jones was a walking mismatch against Duncanville. Whether it was securing early post up positioning on the block, accelerating into drives from the perimeter, or timing up self-alley layups to himself, there was nothing Duncanville could do to stop him from putting the ball in the hoop, scoring a career-high 41 PTS on the night on 69% FG% and pulling down 11 REB to boot with a physical, athletic advantage able to reach a higher point than anyone else on the court.

Scoring in different ways, especially on the move, like in a stampede action already running off a screen before catching the pass on the drive to the rack. Pulling up for a tough contested middy. Grab-and-go coast-to-coast through the defense. Sweet drives into the paint with smooth finishes inside. Powering through mismatches with a big man size advantage. Good footwork down low with a strong move through contact for an AND1 finish in the paint. Power slam after power slam. Whether it was downhill off the dribble or early post-up positioning, Jamier Jones got to the rack with ease.

Jamier brought real defensive impact between guarding the ball at point of attack and forcing Beckham Black to pass the ball, to tools like anticipation and timing with the athleticism to force a pick six steal into a breakaway slam.

Flashed nice vision on a pass underneath the basket. Handled clutch time, drilling a free throw in the final minute of a close game. Drew fouls attacking the rack with an AND1 drive below the rim to cut the lead to two late in the contest. Converted a bump-and-finish layup through contact to extend a late lead.

#2 6’0″ Guard Jalen Reece – 16 PTS – 9 AST – 4 REB – 3 STL (3/7 3P)

Natural point guard. Pull-up jump shooter. Soft touch FLOATA finishing at the rim. Runs the offense, directs traffic. Finds and feeds mismatches. Post entry bullet passes and clean kickouts to open shooters. Effective flare handles.

Jalen Reece flashed creative vision and tight ball control, setting up teammates with post entry passes throughout, looking for his teammates with quick-trigger passes and highlight dimes, finishing with 16 PTS & 9 AST.

Sending a bullet overhand pass to open teammates and quick post entry passes all night, Jalen found Jamier Jones for highlight connections including one clutch no-look pass for a power slam in overtime.

Reece showed off the handles and touch with a mean crossover into a finger roll finish, spinning into a running FLOATA and splashing a catch-and-shoot triple, all in double overtime.

Jalen used active hands and good timing to create deflections, too.

#3 6’3” Guard Will Jackson – 11 PTS – 5 REB – 2 AST – 2 STL (3/5 3P)

Will knocked down a couple of three pointers with at least one coming off the dribble before hitting two clutch free throws late in the game. Brought good energy, took a charge on a hustle play, flew in for an offensive rebound in traffic.

#4 6’7” Wing Treyvon Maddox – 12 PTS – 8 REB – 3 AST – 2 BLK (3/5 3P)

Treyvon played with high motor and toughness. Active hands defense created a deflection and steal. Energy on the glass led to an offensive rebound where he drew foul shots on the putback attempt. Driving strong to the rack, drawing two free throws, and knocking one down to extend his team’s lead to three with 37 seconds left in overtime. On top of his energy, Maddox showed deep shooting range, drilling a contested pull-up three and a catch-and-shoot triple.

#5 6’7” Forward CeZanne Mosley – 10 PTS – 5 REB

CeZanne took advantage of his size mismatch down low, finishing strong in the paint, showing fundamental footwork on the spin moves in the post, drawing the AND1 foul out of a baselines out-of-bounds set. Nice vision on high-low passes.

Entering the weekend at home, Oak Ridge was coming off two losses against fellow Marquee Florida High School Basketball Programs, Montverde and IMG Academy.

Losing to Duncanville was the fourth loss in a row for Oak Ridge, as the host team was taken down by Pebblebrook on Day 1 of the weekend, where Jalen Reece posted a statline of 28 PTS – 8 AST – 5 STL – 3 3PM and Jamier Jones finished with 14 PTS – 6 REB – 3 AST – 4 STL.

Pebblebrook’s #14 6’3” Guard Jaylen Humphrey led the way with 17 PTS & 6 REB; #2 5’10” Guard Zyree Brown scored 13 PTS; #15 6’10” Center Fallou Dioum scored 12 PTS in the matchup.

Against Southeastern Prep, Dioum showed good timing on a block while #20 6’7” Wing Anthony Moon knocked down a catch-and-shoot triple.

Southeastern Prep’s #23 (no roster listed) impressed in the fourth quarter of a blowout win against Pebblebrook. Flying up and down the court, throwing down high-flying slams, popping out of the gym athletically on his dunks, rebounds, and contests.

In the opening game on the first day of Hoopfest Florida, Blake’s 6’7” Wing Joshua Lewis scored 32 PTS – 4 STL – 1 BLK and 6’8” Guard Joe Philon scored 16 PTS – 8 REB – 3 STL against Duncanville.

Against Blake, Beckham Black dropped 11 PTS – 3 REB -3 AST -3 STL, “Deuce” Hunt posted 18 PTS, and Kayden Edwards went off for 30 PTS – 4 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL.

In the second game on Day 2, Joshua Lewis and Joe Philon led Blake to a victory over North Broward Prep, while Chudier Diew yak stood out the most for his team in defeat.

Day 2 Game 2- North Broward Prep vs Blake – Standout Players

Blake

#1 6’9” Wing Joe Philon – 7 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 BLK – 2 STL (4.0 A/TO)

Joe Philon impressed with all-around athleticism, versatility, and two-way feel. Philon showed incredible defensive instincts making a block off a quick second jump, swatting another shot from behind on a different possession, poking the ball away for a steal at one point, and trapping an opponent in the corner to help force a deflection.

Philon flashed soft touch by splashing a catch-and-shoot corner triple and convering a tough driving bump-and-finish lay-in.

One aspect Philon could improve was decision-making in transition, where he forced one or two errant passes at teammates’ feet that probably could have been easier to catch in stride rather than trying to perfectly time a bounce pass on the run.

#5 6’7” Guard/Wing Joshua Lewis – 13 PTS – 8 REB – 2 AST

Joshua Lewis made the SportsCenter Top-10 worthy highlight of the night: rising up, climbing the ladder, floating even higher after making contact, and throwing down the poster slam.

Lewis pulled up for at least three elbow middies, swished in a running FLOATA, drew the foul hunting contact beneath the rim, hit the skip pass to the corner, made a well-timed cut off ball for the rim finish, and pushed the pace when opportunity struck.

#20 6’6’ Forward Jason Johnson – 18 PTS (7/9 FG) – 7 REB – 2 AST – 3 STL – 2 BLK

Jason Johnson impressed in many facets of the game.

Jason knocked down a triple, made a huge block, showed swarming defense with a full court press steal leading to a breakaway bump-and-finish AND1 runner, all in the first half. In the second half, Johnson threw down monster dunks, made multiple soft touch finishes at the rim with one drawing a foul, and knocked down a jumper running off a screen.

#2 6’0” G Rashif Sinkfield – 2 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 1 STL
Rashif flashed good feel with the drive-and-kick corner 3pt assist and crafty finishing at the rim.

#3 6’0” G Marion Ward – 11 PTS – 3 3PM – 2 AST – 2 STL
Marion showed of the jumper pulling up for a transition triple and splashing in a corner three, the defensive instincts forcing a turnover, and the finishing touch on a breakaway layup.

#4 5’11” G TJ Daniels – 8 PTS – 2 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL
TJ brought good effort trapping a defender in the corner to force a deflection, showed off nice vision with a no-look dumpoff pass, and flashed the 3pt shot with a catch-and-shoot corner three.

#12 6’3” G Jordan Mickens – 2 PTS – 5 AST – 2 STL
Jordan showed good vision with a solid drive-and-kick read for the corner 3pt assist.

North Broward Prep

#3 Guard Ryan Baxley – 9 PTS – 5 AST – 4 REB – 1 STL

Ryan Baxley flashed his soft touch at the rim with a floater, clean shooting range drilling catch-and-shoot threes in the corner and in transition, vision on a nice look-ahead pass, and good defensive instincts on closeouts and loose balls forcing a turnover.

#5 6’9” Wing Chudier Diew yak – 8 PTS – 3 REB – 1 BLK (2/4 3P)

Chudier Diew yak impressed with shooting touch at the rim and beyond the arc, drilling multiple catch-and-shoot threes and finishing an up-and-under cleanly.

Chudier brings a high motor on hustle plays, pulling down a big rebound in traffic, fighting for loose balls to force the turnover, and using the length effectively as a rim deterrent.

#10 6’5” Wing Luigi Borio – 6 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL – 1 BLK
Luigi added a catch-and-shoot triple of his own and even timed up a nice block on a floater attempt.

#24 Big Francesco Borio – 4 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 BLK – 1 STL
Francesco finished strong a the rim with a bump-and-finish through contact and a mean AND1 putback.

#30 Gavin Gorman 6 PTS (2/4 3P) – 2 REB – 1 AST
Gavin splashed a few catch-and-shoot triples

The post Scouting 2024 Hoopfest ft. Oak Ridge, Duncanville, Blake appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

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A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

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The basketball gods must love breakfast tacos. The San Antonio Spurs struck gold in the lottery once again, where their record is somehow even more impressive than in the postseason. 

Victor Wembanyama is a reality-breaking prospect with the potential to do just about anything you could think up. Winning the lottery changed the future of the Spurs in an instant, but with it came the enormous weight of expectation.

The task of building a title contender around the NBA’s next superstar is both an exciting and unpredictable adventure. Nobody like this has ever existed on an NBA floor, there is no playbook for success. The shape this team will ultimately take at its peak is unknown, but one thing is for certain: there is no time to waste.

Many are resistant to the idea of cashing in trade chips to acquire a star, and for good reason! Finding a player on a similar timeline to Vic is important, and every star available on the market is all but aged out of that window or already looking at enormous future salary commitments. These are not the stars you’re looking for. 

Rather than waiting for the right deal to appear down the line, the idea of being aggressive in the 2023 NBA Draft is one worth exploring. The class is loaded with potential playoff performers that would fit in the long-term vision of the franchise from the top of the lottery all the way into the teens, twenties and potentially even into the early second round. 

Few draft classes are fortunate to have this depth of talent, and for a team like San Antonio looking to build through the draft, that depth is a rare opportunity. The night will begin with the Spurs drafting the future face of their franchise, but the proceeding moments may be the perfect time to strike while the iron is hot. 

For the first time since the departure of Kawhi Leonard, the San Antonio Spurs have the juice. How can they use draft night to ensure the party doesn’t meet a similarly ill-fated demise? It all starts with constructing a roster that is befitting of our foundational star. 

In this piece we’ll cover what assets San Antonio has at their disposal as they begin to build around Victor Wembanyama before taking a deeper look at two potential lead guard options in the lottery and the price it could take to move up. Let’s dive in.

The Assets

Dating back to the Kawhi Leonard trade, San Antonio has slowly accumulated tradable assets with future first round picks and young players exceeding their draft position. I’ve divided the existing assets from draft picks to players on contract into similarly valued groups below.

A few points of clarification. 

Zach Collins is good. Yes, the injury concerns are real and he’s only really had half as season as an entrenched starter. Popovich has come out very strongly in favor of Collins manning the five spot, even in the case of winning the lottery. Vic’s camp has stated publicly he sees himself as a forward, trading away the only capable starting center on the roster seems infeasible within that construct.  

Vassell, Sochan, Johnson and Branham all represent effective, cost controlled youth the team will lean on when first building around Wembanyama. All four have proven themselves capable NBA players with meaningful upside, even if they have been over-tasked in recent years.

That last point is worth emphasizing. This team needed a star desperately. The roster was chalk-full of fun complementary young pieces, but the end result was a bunch of talented 20-year-olds being forced to do too much. With Wembanyama’s arrival in San Antonio, a more functional structure should begin to take place. 

It would not be surprising for all four of the above mentioned players to have a more efficient and impactful offensive season. This past season, Keldon Johnson posted a higher usage rate than DeMar DeRozan and Devin Vassell’s usage was higher than Dejounte Murray. Beyond that, the Spurs were the worst team in the league at creating and maintaining advantages.

Both Keldon and Devin are incredibly intriguing long-term pieces, but that is far from ideal given their comparative skillsets.  With each party sliding down a run in the proverbial pecking order (on both ends of the floor), the game should start to become easier.  

In the case of Keldon Johnson, this feels particularly prescient. Keldon’s game begins with ferocious downhill rim pressure. While not always the most efficient scorer, Keldon is at least putting his shoulder into his defender, putting his head down and getting to the rim. 

The presence of Wembanyama, and the natural gravity he will command every time he’s on the court, should open up driving lanes and finishing angles for Keldon that he has yet to experience.  Moving on from Keldon should come with a very real (and immediate) upgrade. 

Regarding the pick from Charlotte, everywhere I look simply refers to it as a lottery protected first round pick. The only hangup? It converts to two seconds if not conveyed this year. 

Charlotte was one of the worst teams in the league last year and their odds of a playoff push are meek at best. That is a fake first, something the team should have no problem moving on from, but may make a difference for a team looking to bolster the appearance of their return in the realm of public opinion. 

The Raptors first will almost surely convey next year, and is the most interesting of the protected picks. The Bulls first has favorable protections as well, but with a longer lead-time the value of that pick is less, but still notable in trade talks. Those two picks, in conjunction with the Charlotte pick, should be seen as the immediately movable assets.

Buying back into the first of a loaded draft class isn’t going to come cheap and with that kind of price the fit needs to be sublime. The right deal could give the Spurs a head start towards building their next dynasty, but could that deal look like? We’ll start at the top.

The Drink Stirrers

The current Spurs roster is littered with youth and talent, but lacks a true initiator on the perimeter. Victor Wembanyama will be a defensive menace and mismatch nightmare the moment he enters the league, but the idea of building an offense around him at this point can only be seen as over-aggressive. Vic is a scorer, and building his footing there is the first order of business.   

Finding a guard that can grow alongside Wemby while capitalizing on the inherent gravity he creates seems like the first place to look. Since the departure of Dejounte Murray (but really Tony Parker if you think about it) the Spurs have lacked a true initiator for their offense. The patented drive and kick offense spent much of the last half-decade dying on the vine due to a lack of on-ball juice. 

Adding Vic as a front-court focal point helps alleviate some of their offensive concerns, but the team will need to find a long-term answer at point guard before it can begin a serious championship push. Rather than forcing the issue with an aging vet or out of position youngster this draft offers a few different solutions to the Spurs lead guard problem, but only if they are willing to pay the price. 

The Prospect: Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson’s potential fit needs little explaining. Amen has the kind of perimeter advantage creation you can’t teach, the inevitable kind where he seemingly teleports into the paint before your very eyes. As a passer, his court awareness and flair for the spectacular make him not only one of the most exhilarating watches of the cycle, but the ideal co-star for Vicor Wembanyama. 

The team has been reported to be highly intrigued by the prospect of drafting Amen, and while winning the lottery makes that more complicated, the very idea is enticing enough to be worth exploring what it could take, and if a deal would be worth the price. 

The Pitch: The Perfect Fit Co-Star 

The case for why to do it is simple: this team needs an injection of perimeter size, athleticism and playmaking. Amen checks all of those boxes, and there is genuine reason to believe San Antonio is the best place to maximize his growth.

With a clear primary option in Wembanyama and complementary spacing galore there is an offensive safety net in place for Amen to gradually grow his game without being overburdened during his development. Regardless of whatever the trade package would be, San Antonio will have a well-spaced floor next season. They just need someone to get them the ball, and Amen is the most creative passing prospect since Lamelo Ball, and honestly there isn’t much competition.

There are concerns about his ability to score efficiently in the halfcourt without the threat of a jumper, but the spacing of a Wemby/Collins front court should help alleviate most of the finishing concerns against size. Now, if only San Antonio had a history of slowing building workable jumpshots. Wait…

Amen Thompson is the best drive and kick point guard prospect in a long time. It doesn’t get better than this. 

Defensively the fit is a positive (and familiar) one. Amen is a remarkable quick-twitch athlete with all of the tools to be an absolute menace for opposing backcourts. He is a more gifted defender than a refined one feasting on highlight-reel steals and breakaway dunks, but his technique when navigating ball screens and general consistency can leave you wanting more. .

His time at OTE was less engaged defensively than you would prefer from a prospect where defensive impact is a potentially large swing skill, but that feels just as indicative of the environment as the prospect. Refining outlier athletic tools and instincts despite a thin frame is a project that sounds incredibly familiar.

Amen Thompson has many of the same qualities that made Dejounte Murray such an impactful defender for San Antonio. His penchant for jumping passing lanes and athletic lunacy can change the course of a game on its own, that energy just needs to be harnessed. 

Dejounte’s ultimate impact was kneecapped by a failure to surround him with adequate defensive talent. Great guard defense cannot create a good defense on its own, much less a great one. With Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan on the roster, Amen would have a much different context, one with the infrastructure to insulate and enhance Amen’s defensive playmaking. 

The Price: Devin Vassell 

Well friends, we’ve made it to the wet blanket portion of the program. By all accounts, the pick used to draft Amen Thompson will come at an exorbitant price. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. 

Moving into the top 4 of this draft would be all but impossible. It would cost assets San Antonio doesn’t have (a young All-Star wing) or the teams owing the picks are not motivated to trade with San Antonio (Houston). Amen would almost certainly need to fall beyond the Rockets at four, and that feels ludicrous given how well he fits with their young core. 

The Harden return, Portland trade rumors and Charlotte’s general unpredictableness muddies the waters just enough for a glimmer of hope to sneak through. Trading into the lottery is a rare occurrence and, in a draft with this talent level, will almost certainly require a combination of players or future picks. 

Getting into the top half of the lottery should Amen begin to slide, namely Detroit or Orlando at 5 and 6, would most likely cost Devin Vassell and potentially some additional sweetening on the fringes. Historically speaking, trading into the top seven of the draft is expensive and generally requires a later first (something San Antonio doesn’t have), or it is part of a larger star trade package. 

That is an enormous price to pay, particularly so given you would have drafted your franchise cornerstone not thirty minutes prior. It would take an incredibly fortunate set of circumstances and an enormous risk from San Antonio, but I think it is something they would have to consider. 

The hardest part about building a genuine contender in the NBA is finding a true-blue second star. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are incredibly fun and valuable pieces to the team, but that is an enormous expectation to put on two players without reliable tools for creation.

Amen would immediately become the primary creator for this team, and his strengths make the rest of this roster better. We know the team is higher than most on both Thompson twins, and Amen fits like a glove. If you can keep your cache of high-value draft picks intact while adding the perfect point guard for your system and franchise cornerstone, you have to consider that deal. 
Trading Vassell would feel a whole lot like trading team-favorite George Hill back in 2011. An incredibly heavy price to pay in the moment, but one that could look a whole lot smaller in the rear-view mirror.

Ultimately, I highly doubt Amen falls into a “gettable” range for the Spurs. If he did, I would be incredibly tempted to pull the trigger, but dealing Vassell (an ideal spacing wing for the future Spurs) feels like a step too far for the team. If there is a way to get the deal done with a collection of Keldon, Branham and draft capital I would pounce on that in an instant, but even as I type this I can see pigs flying around my office. Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

The Prospect: Anthony Black

Anthony Black entered this season as part of a star-studded Arkansas recruiting class where he was viewed as a defensive-minded guard with real passing chops but limited on-ball value due to his difficulty scoring in the halfcourt. 

He was hardly the headliner of his class, but ended the year as the widely-viewed best prospect on the team and likely Top 10 pick. Without an efficient jumper, Black had to rely on other means for creating efficient offense, and in doing so showed what makes him an intriguing target for San Antonio should they choose to trade up. 

The Pitch: The Versatile Guard of the Future

Anthony Black began the year as the lead guard for the Razorbacks as Nick Smith Jr. recovered from injury. Immediately, his ability to pressure the rim popped. Black is an incredibly bouncy athlete that can rise up and dunk at a moments notice, but it was his craft running the pick and roll that stood out.

Without a workable jumper off the bounce, Black thrived playing with Trevon Brazille operating as a genuine pick and pop threat. He is excellent at using his handle to keep a defender on his back and manipulates both his space and timing to get off quality looks at the hoop.

His touch around the rim was largely solid with some exciting flashes using his floater, making a few ludicrous, heavily contested looks. There were a few clunkers and strange moments, but his overall craft as a finisher was impressive. Coupled with his vision and timing as a passer, Black profiles well as a potential drink-stirrer for the future Spurs.

From a complementary skills perspective, Black is an excellent cutter, where his athleticism really pops. He has a great awareness of the space around him and a knack for finding crevices in a defense. In a future where defensive attention is largely focused on Victor Wembanyama, Black has the creativity and athleticism to punish defenses consistently. 

His jumper was rough this year, but his touch as a finisher and passer are both very good. The form looks uncomfortable now, with a harshly cocked wrist and uneasy energy transfer, but it is far from un-fixable. If the shot comes around, he profiles as a guard who can not only initiate offense but play off of Wembanyama in an equally effective way.

Defensively, Black is just about everything the Spurs value in a guard, yet again in a remarkably familiar sense. He has active hands at all times, blowing up plays and tipping passes despite an average wingspan. His athleticism plays well off-ball jumping passing lanes or as a tertiary rim protector, but more than anything he’s incredibly sound.. 

Black keeps his feet underneath him, is never flustered and even if he’s overmatched physically, is going to find a way to contest your shot no matter what. Dereck White became a fan (and coaching staff) favorite for exactly that brand of hyper-competent defense. He is a glue guy, filling the crevices of your defense. Need someone at the point of attack? No problem. An off-ball shooting specialist? Perfect. A shot-creating off-guard? Ant Black has you covered.

That kind of positional versatility, defensively and (potentially) offensively is incredibly hard to find, and even more valuable when constructing a roster around a singular, universe-engulfing star. Over the course of a decade plus of hopeful contention, the versatility to change your role to fit the current personnel, and excel while doing it, is an invaluable trait. Black addresses the needs of this current roster and has the moldable skillset to continue to fill in the gaps as they appear. 

The Price: Keldon Johnson

The stretch of picks from 7-11 (Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas, Orlando) seems like the natural resting place for Black’s draft stock. It is hard to imagine him falling past 11 at the absolute latest with a very real chance he goes in the top eight. 

Buying a pick in the top ten is a huge ask, and one that is likely to require genuine player compensation to complete. Keldon would appear to carry the most trade value in the open market amongst movable players and his off-ball scoring and energy would be welcome in a number of places in the lottery. 

With San Antonio’s continued belief in big-ball lineups and their incumbent center Zach Collins it feels like a fairly safe assumption the plan is to play Wembanyama at the four going forward. After Jeremy Sochan’s excellent rookie season, it is hard to envision a starting lineup without him in it. The fit there is hopeful, but one that leaves Keldon without a place in the starting lineup.

Does that mean Keldon has to be moved? Certainly not. There is still a meaningful role for Keldon, it just may not be as a starter. That reality, and the value of his declining salary over the next four years, makes him an intriguing trade chip.

A one-for-one deal involving Keldon and Black is something worth considering just on the basis of improved roster context, but it is by no means a home run. Black’s shot from distance is a real question mark that will take multiple seasons to iron out. He is not a lost cause, but the form is far from ideal and is a real hindrance in terms of versatility. 

He tested incredibly well athletically at the combine, but that doesn’t seem to translate as effectively on-ball. His handle is solid and finishing package strong, but there is a lack of undeniability you look for in shot-deficient guards. 

If the cost is purely draft capital, somewhere in the ballpark of the Toronto and Chicago firsts (you can throw in the Charlotte fake first), gambling on a lead ball-handler that is an incredibly solid bet as a connector feels like a smart bet to make. Black would make everyone on this roster better, even if he struggles beyond the arc as a rookie. That improved context is the whole sell, and it makes the idea of moving on from one of the very players he would help feel uninspired.  

The price of two or three protected firsts is nothing to sneeze at, but all three of those picks are incredibly limited in upside and as such are relatively low risk trade tools. Better yet, the draft day deals between OKC, New York, Charlotte and Detroit last year provides a proof of concept for a buy-in. Holding onto your own firsts and Atlanta’s unprotected picks is the priority. These are not the picks to be wringing your hands over. 

Black is largely mocked to go in the top 10 with a bevy of point guard-hungry teams waiting in the heart of the lottery. The odds he falls to a pick that can be acquired with protected future picks feels slim, but with more than a few guard options rising up boards crazier things have happened. Black could prove a worthy gamble, but finding the right price may prove to be a complicated task.

The Wrap

If there is one major weakness on this roster, it is perimeter initiation. Last year, this team was too often stuck behind the eight ball in the half court, hoping for a contested make or defensive lapse.

With Victor Wembanyama, the need to rectify that weakness only intensifies. Getting your star player easy looks in the flow of the offense is a necessity, and  finding a proper lead guard should be at the top of the to-do list this summer. 

Anthony Black represents an intriguing option, but not one without its flaws. His combination of size, athleticism and ball skills is highly converted around the league today for the same reasons he would be a great fit in San Antonio. He would be a meaningful upgrade, but that demand could price him out of San Antonio’s range.

One of Nick Smith Jr, Cason Wallace, Bilal Coulibay and Anthony Black will fall into the late lottery and potentially all the way into the mid teens. Black has had more Top 10 momentum early, but I would prefer Wallace and Smith to Black for the Spurs regardless of price. The immediate fit of a real guard shooter is too enticing, with both options presenting an equal (or greater) ultimate upside, even if it may look a little different. 

Amen Thompson is an entirely different equation as he will almost certainly be drafted before Ant Black, but may be a more sensible option as a trade-up target. The price for Thompson would be steep, but his upper-echelon athleticism and awareness represent an enticing proposition. 

The shot questions are even more severe, but the highs are insurmountably higher. That’s why the thought he even falls out of the top four feels preposterous, an idea clinging to life with Portland Trailblazer workout videos, James Harden’s homesickness and an undying belief in eventual draft night chaos.

It would be an enormous gamble to put together the kind of trade package it will take to draft Amen, even if he were to fall. Moves like that bring a GM rings or a pink slip and you never really know ahead of time. San Antonio will begin the night drafting the new face of their franchise. Finding a proper co-star is no easy task and opportunities wont come along often. Sometimes, the price is worth the pain. 

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For this, second piece, I’m looking at “Green Flags Only” prospects, freshmen and sophomore NCAA players who exceeded various statistical minimums and did not see the same kind of linear production decline against the best teams.

With no glaring statistical weaknesses, these prospects do Everything, Everywhere regardless of who they’re playing and at any given moment. The questions we’ll be looking to answer this time are, primarily:

1. Do they have an extra gear to show the special?
2. Will their game translate in the same way against NBA competition?

They were able to produce all over and consistently, but how big are those margins, and where might they dominate? Do they have star potential or just consistency? Do they even have that? The answers varied widely:

Jarace Walker (Houston, 7.7 BPM)

Jarace is a tricky evaluation given the contrasts of the obvious with the dubious. Let’s start there:

• The obvious
  • Jarace is an elite passer
  • Jarace is elite at reading an offense
  • Jarace has elite positioning
  • Jarace can dribble and shoot better than most at his position
• The dubious
  • Jarace can’t get to the rim consistently
  • Jarace doesn’t have much burst
  • Jarace takes a while to leap

The latter qualities were masked by his fantastic athletic testing in a controlled setting, with one of the best verticals at the Combine. But the implementation of that in-game is a question of degree that requires close film watching. Let’s dig in.

Jarace is one of the best processors of what is happening on the court in this class, and, with size, strength and some dribble / pass / shoot skill, is an obvious and safe bet to be positive on an NBA floor.

The obvious is, in fact, so obvious it can be easy to underestimate. At any given point, Jarace makes crosscourt reads look simple, is able to rotate into advantageous spot ahead of NCAA competition, and whips passes to open shooters at the perfect time. He knows how to use eye manipulation to create openings, and understands when the opponent is about to over-rotate.

I have no issue projecting Jarace’s strengths conveying at the next level. At 6’6.5’’ with a 7’2.5’’ wingspan, 97^th percentile standing vert, 83^rd percentile lane agility and 78^th percentile sprint scores at the combine, Walker certainly has the athletic build to capitalize on them.

His statistical profile was elite, particularly his combination of 12% assist rate, 6.2% block rate, 2.2% steal rate and 38% shooting on 138 midrange attempts, the majority of which were unassisted. Being able to hit difficult shots while also reading the floor at a high level on both ends is a good formula for success. Bobby Portis at Arkansas is the only comparable freshman for that combination of stats (if you relax the criteria, Jabari Parker, Terrence Jones, Demarcus Cousins and Mo Harkless appear), another toolsy, scheme-versatile big wing/small big but not the level of passer as Jarace.

So, Jarace’s floor is safe – how about his ceiling?

That is where the dubious comes in. The combination of lack of elite burst and longer leaping load time have lead to overreliance on his floater and pull-up, and, for an otherwise highly crafty player, a surprising lack thereof on drives. Without an initial edge even in NCAA against mediocre competition on drives, Jarace is often forced to bail out early, limiting the utility of his passing as well.

The most damning indicator is his mere 0.24 rate of free throws to shot attempts: this would be the worst mark among that comp set I listed above, with Mo Harkless as closest at 0.33 and Demarcus Cousins at the peak of 0.73.

While we’re being greedy, that lack of burst limits what could have been a DPOY-degree of upside on defense. Jarace is always aware of long rotations he could make, but not always capable of making them physically. He is always first to spot a development, contributing to elite stock rates regardless, but could have been a true monster with a more rapid first step and a bit more agility.

Where we are left is an obviously great connector prospect who also has shotmaking and primary distributor upside, in addition to some rim protection ability. That is an extremely safe bet in the top 10. If he is able to become a little bit quicker and a little more mobile, he could easily clear top 5 value.

Jordan Hawkins (UConn, 7.4 BPM)

The proof of Jordan Hawkins being NBA-ready also hits you over the head: he was the best player on a national championship team where he filled his role admirably. That role also slots easily into any team, being off-ball centric, as scalable as you want.

The primary selling point for Hawkins is the shot, particularly off of movement. Off the catch he took 222 threes and made 91 of them (41%). His 7.6 points per game shooting off the catch was top 20 in the country, and the primary kill shot for the nation’s best team. Hawkins flew around screens and reorganized in an instant, always committing to his follow through.

That shot will translate to the next level, as will Hawkins’ general approach to the game. He plays very hard, more physical than you’d expect for what is often a more cosmetic archetype. The issue is he is small, listed at 6’5’’ but often unable to deter shots from even smaller wings. He gets in the right position but it often does not matter, begging questions of whether he would be targeted in high stakes NBA circumstances.

He also has little star path outside of his shotmaking. The handle is not good for a guard, though he is savvy enough to limit those occasions to when necessary. This brings me to my favorite part of Hawkins’ game: he is not afraid to attack whatever space the opponent gives him, whether it’s into a midrange pullup or all the way to the basket. The tools to get there or finish when he arrives are not fantastic, but his shooting gravity is enough that the lanes should be wide.

I would love to consider Hawkins a top 20 prospect simply by how he plays the game and how reliable it is to be useful to an NBA team, and even good ones. Off-ball scoring at his level without obvious vulnerabilities makes him a fit with all 30 NBA teams. But when searching for star ceilings, I am less compelled to see it in Hawkins unless he reaches a comfort level with the handle to seek out more midrange opportunities. It’s possible, but not my favorite bet considering a loaded top 20.

Cason Wallace (Kentucky, 7.0 BPM)

No player has a wider gap between value on the court and scarcity of skillset than Cason. The value proposition is strong: he can defend any guard or small wing, sniffing out actions and making as consistent an impact as any guard in the class; he can provide some offensive value all over, whether passing, midrange floaters, screensetting, catch and shoot. But when it comes to grasping for rarity, I struggle to see as immediate of star scarcity as others in the lottery.

Let’s take a step back. Cason Wallace is a very, very good basketball player. It is rare to have a guard connector prospect of his ability in a class. He is as sound as you’ll find as far as hand placement and positioning, surely obnoxious to be guarded by. He is more didactic on offense, a table setter with some athletic and dribble pass shoot skills to rely on.

I am sure Wallace will be a good NBA player. The question we are here to ask, uncomfortable but necessary near the top, is how rare his qualities are.

The rarest aspect of his game is simply its combination of factors, and why he is a clear top 20 prospect in my mind. But the dominant factors may be lacking when benchmarking against odds of being a top 2 player on a title team. It’s a high bar, but one we have to focus on.

There are many avenues for Cason to reach that, all of which are debatable in likelihood:

• Ride the floater to primary or secondary scoring
• Continue to progress as an offensive conductor
• Add additional finishing craft to broaden scoring opportunities
• Be that good of a shutdown defender

I struggle, however, to see any of these avenues as likely in their own right, even if surely will progress at least somewhat. With the recent offensive explosion where 110 offensive ratings are pedestrian, I struggle to see where Cason stands out (again, relative to star upside). His handle and creativity attacking the rim are fairly straightforward, indicated by his 0.22 free throw to field goal attempt rate and only 24% of attempts coming at the rim.

Wallace’s stats exceed dominant thresholds for connector equity: 2.0 assist to turnover ratio, 24% assist rate, 3.7% steal rate and 54% true shooting is a pristine resume for a high major freshman (Dennis Smith Jr., Wade Baldwin, Jrue Holiday and Shabazz Napier are only ones in vicinity) but I want to find the easy. Cason is highly likely to make everything a bit harder for his opponent, but I struggle to see the dominant.

You know what, as I write this and review the clips…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’ve asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.

Gradey Dick (Kansas, 6.5 BPM)

My quick and easy pitch for Gradey is this: he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst. But we can begin with the shot.

Gradey has all the hallmarks of what I look for in a sharpshooter: smooth and consistent release; high peak and quickly; hunts for it off movement; seems to enjoy shooting it. He is a very tough cover, able at 6’6.25’’ and 6’8.75’’ wingspan to shoot it over opponent off the move, especially with his quirky shot. He sets it through his gather at about the release height, so when he begins the second motion it’s quick and effortless. Think Klay Thompson’s but with less dip and a bit more mechanical.

The handle is the obvious swing skill. Dick is quite coordinated at his size, also evidenced by his active choreography on Tik Tok, able to take advantage of his shooting gravity but ducking through tight closeouts and resetting into his shot. For that reason I have quite high hopes in him as a midrange pull-up threat, simply too good of a shooter and too nimble on his feet to not be. The handle is simple but functional, with reason to think more reps will mean more progress (simply waiting for the ball was enough to fill it up at Kansas as the primary shooting threat on the team).

On defense, he uses his length exceptionally well and, more importantly, is very obviously always seeking out a way to have an impact. When he swats to block shots it’s ferociously, when he sees a loose ball he dives, and he has the coordination to maximize his length where you wouldn’t expect.

Gradey Dick, to me, is a very safe top 10 pick. Shooting is shooting, is shooting, and Gradey is as confident as I can get in a 40%+ high volume spot up threat. To then have confidence in some defense, some handle, lots of effort on top of that? In my opinion, there is a good case for him as early as #5.

Anthony Black (Arkansas, 5.9)

Ant is an obvious candidate to stick in the league as a physical connector. As Arkansas’ driving force (especially when Nick Smith Jr. was out) – the team was +22 net rating with Ant on compared to +9 with him off – Black put up stats similar to Bruce Brown as a freshman at Florida:

Anthony Black / Bruce Brown

• 22% / 22% USG
• 55% / 56% TS
• 21% / 21% AST
• 1.3 / 1.6 A:TO
• 3.4 / 2.9 STL%
• 1.9 / 1.9 BLK%
• 93-148 (63%) / 90-144 (63%) at rim
• 32% / 21% midrange
• 71% / 74% FT%
• 30% / 35% 3P%
• 58 / 41 FTAR

A more physically daunting Bruce Brown is about as close of a comparison as I can get in this class, a player constantly on the swerve and able to exert themselves no matter the task. Not only are they toolsy, but take pride in being so. Black can be seen throwing his body against whatever opponent is nearest, never turning down an opportunity to set a flare screen or tag a roller: Ant is a gamer.

It’s not all perfect, and, much like Bruce Brown, it may be worth asking what the star upside is even as appreciating all that makes them such useful players. Ant has many routes to the rim, excellent at alternating footwork to parry past second line defenders. But he often struggles to get past that first one, shiftier than he is bursty and more functional in handle than magician.

The shot isn’t great, as a possession ending in an Ant Black three is unlikely to be good offense in the NBA, but Ant’s ability to stay on a swivel will give him opportunities to connect. His adherence to right-playism means if he’s open he’ll be taking the ball to the basket, if others are open he’ll be slinging it as soon as he can, if there’s a wide to keep the play going in your favor, he’ll sniff it out.

The offense could be a struggle in the wrong system, one that either tries to let him beat his man off the dribble bringing the ball up or doesn’t allow him to move throughout the half court. But I love betting on reaction time x size x skill, as Ant will have endless opportunities to make a difference. He’ll find his way on the floor, but may need to strike the right conditions to truly become a star.

Kobe Bufkin (Michigan, 5.8 BPM)

Of anyone on this list, Bufkin feels like could belong on the Whiteboard prospect list. His dynamic trait is his driving ability, with long stride lengths and finishing craft. He is particularly adept at finishing from oblique angles while extending past his defender, shooting past and pushing or finger rolling the ball to land gently above the rim. That is an NBA level skill.

I would feel much better about that selling point if it were paired with a complete game as Bufkin’s presence on this list suggests. He’s close, an adept connective passer and generally active across the court. But his lack of any physical presence on the interior presents an obvious point of weakness that could be a risk in high leverage matchups.

Bufkin only weighs 187 pounds, unable to hold space with a lanky frame or catch up after being screened. That makes the sell tougher for a combo guard who can likely only guard true point guards. But Bufkin is still a three level scoring threat, efficient on solid volume everywhere, and perhaps just good enough of a shooter and passer to be that difficult to cover.

Players with the ability to score from three, midrange pull-ups or drives to the rim are always coveted. It may also be possible for Bufkin to add the strength needed to not be targeted by an offense, or use his anticipatory abilities to compensate. I currently have Bufkin slated as a mid-to-late first prospect, though perhaps is the last on my board with true top 3 potential for a good team if things break the right way.

Jett Howard (Michigan, 4.3)

Jett, coach Juwan’s son, made a ton of threes this season. At 14 per 100 possessions, Howard made 37% and self-created one of every four. Funnily enough, watching the tape you could imagine those numbers rising even higher.

Howard is unbelievably comfortable getting into his shot no matter the context. Although not without flaws – we’ll get into those later – he has the exact type of athleticism where he can rebalance into his pocket in an instant no matter from what position. His form is about ideal, following through consistently and dedicated about his footwork.

Adding on to his flamethrower decal, Jett is also an exceptional passer with good handle. He is both accurate and decisive, limited only by his negative first step where his handle is often dedicated to buying time more than taking space.

This all adds up to a dynamo of an offensive player who will be difficult to keep from scoring, regardless of role. He is shy attacking the basket with a narrow frame, but touch is feathery enough that even a 15-foot floater feels like an acceptable shot.

Now, the defense. Jett is the most significant difference between offense and defense of all prospects i’ve covered so far, as limited in physicality he can provide as well as prone to fall asleep or be a step slow getting around screens.

What’s extremely encouraging, and helped me gain comfort with him as a lotto pick is he did show signs of wanting to use his full wing size. His blocks improved from nonexistent to occasional, making up for the small guard count of rebounds. He was also playing on sprained ankles most of the season, looking more present of a presence in his high school years.

I can’t wait to watch Jett Howard in the NBA. His shot would be my favorite in the class if Gradey Dick wasn’t in it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up its best shooter, or even its best scorer (outside of Wemby). The shooting will stick fast, I just hope the defense is good enough to keep him stuck in.

Amari Bailey (UCLA, 3.9 BPM)

Amari earns the final spot here due to his ability to pop up all over the court, with good defense (2.5% steal rate and 1.4% block rate with few fouls) and adequate passing (15% assist rate, 0.9), rebounding (13% defensive rate, 4% offensive). While he only averaged 11 points per game, he was able to score at the rim (77-118), midrange (37-101) and three (21-54) over 30 games.

Positionally, Amari is a clear combo guard, with defensive ground coverage his calling card. Bailey’s stance is ideal, and as always active is able to pivot from distance to distance in an instant. At only 6’3.25’’ with a 6’7’’ wingspan, there will be big guard/small wing assignments Bailey can’t handle, as opponent could still often shoot over him at the NCAA level. But he will be an exceptional glue guy.

I struggle to see Bailey as worth a pick in the first half of the first round, but could provide a versatile skillset to a competitive team towards the end of the first. The swing skill is the pull-up, looking fluid here and there as Bailey is quite fluid of an athlete overall. The mechanics are fine but inconsistent, as seen in his merely decent percentages. He has starter potential, as I buy him finding time with his activity and really embodying the essence of this category.

The post The 2023 NBA Draft’s “Everything Everywhere” Prospects appeared first on Swish Theory.

• Ant is one of the quickest processors of what happens on the court I’ve seen
• He has impressive overall athleticism, most notably incredibly quick leaping (he was a former stand-out wide receiver) but also physicality for frame at 6’7”, 195
• He is a willing attacker, with good finishing touch and ability to absorb contact
• He rarely makes significant mistakes, only occasionally forcing the issue or over-reacting to a fake

Add that all together and it’s difficult to imagine him not having an impact at the NBA level, as these traits not only translate well to a faster, stronger game, but his utility will only increase with better teammates around him (no insult to Arkansas’ very good talent! that’s just how connectors work – they leverage surrounding talent increasingly as it increases). Ant’s ability to consistently make the right play, whether moving the ball on offense or making the right rotation or directing his teammates…all of these bring out the best in those he plays around. That’s what a connector does.

Constantly bouncing on the floor, Ant keeps on a swivel and ready to change direction at any given moment. He is excellent at manipulating not just his pace but his cadence on drives, and takes interior defenders by surprise by his ability to make passes down the throat of the defense when they least expect it. Occasionally he may force the issue or get stuck in a drive, but sports a positive assist-to-turnover ratio despite creating mostly from a standstill.

The case for him is not limited to this role, however. Black’s creativity and skill – prospects of his archetype can be very poor shooters, but Ant is still respectable from distance with decent mechanics, if slow – mean it’s difficult to bake in a specific upside. I’m not sure why Ant couldn’t continue to develop his shot, with off the dribble shooting being the item he most needs to improve to have true primary upside. His catch and shoot mechanics look easily workable, with good results so far in his Arkansas season. Ant has also been showing increased ability to punish PNR unders with pull-ups and deep drops with floaters, but has also already shown himself adaptable in discovering new driving angles, a master of controlling pace on drives who loves to experiment with new ideas based on his opponent.

It is also difficult to find limitations for the freshman on the defensive side. It is rare to find a player who can both fight through screens and guard up in the post, with quick active hands to make strips on digs but also the quick leaping to provide some help-side rim protection and rebound like a wing. I’m skeptical regarding Ant becoming a complete lockdown defender one-on-one, as he will likely struggle to stay in front of the absolute quickest guards, but he is perfectly portable to execute whatever scheme, and, most notably, is quick to snuff out whatever action as the offense sets it up. This, again, makes him the ideal partner for traditional stars. Not only will he get them easier shots on offense, but has the flexibility to plug whatever leaks occur on defense.

Ant, essentially, allows your traditional stars to cut corners, but at a high enough level that he might eventually be considered a star himself. Building your team around offensive firepower? Ant can get them the ball in their spots while probing towards the hoop himself. But more importantly, he can consistently be relied upon to make the other team work to set up their offense, and, perhaps most essential of all, can be trusted to handle whatever new wrinkles are thrown at your team with his elite processing speed. That sounds like a very valuable player, especially in a playoff setting where versatility is crucial. His ability to move to his next assignment seamlessly through a play or stick to who he’s supposed to would make him an easy piece to add to a defense’s foundation, especially at 6’6”/6’7” with quick leaping.

All of this makes me comfortable taking Anthony Black quite high in the 2023 NBA draft, though will continue to see how he progresses, particularly with his shot but also in how he adapts to playing next to Nick Smith Jr. But at this moment I see Black as a worthy candidate to be taken within the top ten, perhaps even in the top 5 for a perfect fit (Houston comes to mind there).

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