A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 1 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.