Impressive start for Kam Jones

Kam Jones is someone I’ve gone back and forth on in the past, but he’s been one of my biggest risers among returning players so far. He’s taken on a bigger load this season and in turn has been as good as any player in the country. What’s been really impressive about Kam this year is that he’s clearly not in a role best fit for who he is as a player, but he’s still been incredible in spite of that. 

Kam’s ideal usage is similar to how he played next to Tyler Kolek in previous years, as someone who can create some on the ball but also thrives as an off-ball weapon who is constantly moving and putting pressure on defenses with the threat of his shooting. This year Marquette has surrounded Kam with significantly less playmaking than in years past, and in turn he’s been really good in a lead creator role where he’s responsible for creating a ton of offense with the ball in his hands. This has caused his 3pt rate to plummet, going from taking 13.9 3 point attempers per 100 possessions the past 2 seasons down to just 8.4 3PA/100 this season.

Despite not getting to showcase one of his best skills as much this year, Kam has been better than ever. He’s averaging more than double the assists per game without increasing his turnover rate at all, giving him an outstanding AST/TO ratio of 4.4/1 so far this season. I still wouldn’t label him as a super advanced passer, but he’s quick with a good handle and doesn’t make many mistakes or bad decisions. Since prospects generally can’t control what team they go to or how they are used early on at the NBA level, this type of role malleability that Kam has shown is a really positive sign for his translation to the NBA level.

If you look over the course of his career Kam has proven that he can easily scale his usage on offense up or down depending on what his team needs. He’s extremely effective playing with limited dribbles while keeping the ball moving, but he’s also very comfortable stringing together dribble moves to create against a set defense. That combination of skills is really rare and valuable to find. Add in the fact that he has the strength and frame to compete on defense a little more than most combo guard prospects, and the package that Kam Jones brings to the table is really enticing – even for someone who will be 23 years old on draft night. He’s comfortably a first-round caliber prospect to me right now and I think you can make a strong argument for Kam to be a lottery pick in the 2025 class.  

Understanding Ace Bailey

So far this season there have been a lot of mixed opinions and commentary on Ace Bailey. He’s shown tremendous flashes as a tough shotmaker, but there have been a lot of people pointing out that he’s so reliant on these tough shots because he isn’t able to generate himself anything easier off the dribble due to a basic handle and lack of physicality. And sure, it’s definitely true that he’s struggled to create separation, rarely gets 2 feet in the paint off the dribble right now, and doesn’t do much as a playmaker. But I think it’s important to value all of the stuff that Ace does well rather than just focus purely on the areas that he isn’t currently good at, and consider how he would look in a different role.

He still has a ways to go in his development but Ace looks to me like someone we can project as a 6’9 athletic wing that is versatile defensively, contributes on the glass, can get out and run the floor, and has rare shot making ability for his size. Even if he’s never effective taking more than 2-3 dribbles at once, that’s still an incredibly valuable and useful player for any NBA team. So while I agree with most of the concerns most people have about Ace’s handle and viability as a creator, I think you can still justify ranking him near the top of the draft regardless of the on-ball limitations. One thing I’m looking to see from him the rest of the way is if he can up his 3pt volume, as his current rate of roughly 7 3PA/100 is solid but below what I’d like to see from a shooting prospect of Ace Bailey’s caliber. 

The Two Sides of Egor Demin

Egor Demin has been one of the more interesting players to monitor so far this season, as he’s looked extremely different depending on the competition he’s facing. Against low/mid-major teams such as UC Riverside and Central Arkansas, Demin has looked every bit like a top 5 pick. He’s gotten downhill off the dribble, shot it at a high level, showed some athletic juice, and looks like an incredible passer for a 6’8-6’9 guard. 

However, against high-major teams, it’s almost like watching a different player. Demin has struggled immensely to score against length and hasn’t been comfortable or confident enough to get to his spots in the same manner. There’s been a lot of instances in games against teams like Ole Miss and Providence where Demin is picking up his dribble and passing before ever creating an advantage, which has stalled the offense a bit. When he has tried to get into his bag off the dribble his handle has looked slow and sloppy. Even his passing ability has looked worse in these games, as he’s had a lot of turnovers trying to thread passing windows that just aren’t there against teams with higher levels of length and athleticism. Missing more shots against better defenses is natural and isn’t super concerning by itself over a small sample, but the way in which his creation impact has fallen off a cliff in these matchups is pretty worrisome. 

Ultimately Demin is still someone that I’m relatively high on due to the combination of size and passing as an 18-year-old and I do believe in his jumper, but it’s clear that we need to temper expectations of him as a creator until he starts to show he can produce against higher level competition. 

Other BYU Prospects

Outside of Demin, BYU has another pair of interesting potential prospects that I think are worth mentioning in Kanon Catchings and Richie Saunders. They are near polar opposites as players as Catchings is still very raw, but shows a lot of skills valuable to being an NBA forward. He’s about 6’9 with good length and covers ground at a high level on the defensive end, giving him a lot of potential versatility on that side as he fills out his frame and gets more disciplined. Catchings has also come out of the gates as a very high volume 3pt shooter (13.9 3PA/100), and while there has been mixed results the comfortability that he already has getting up jumpers as a 19-year-old forward is a very good sign. I talk about 3pt volume a lot, but it’s something I really value and in a lot of cases is better for projecting long-term shooting talent than just looking at 3pt%. Right now I think there are too many holes in Catchings’ game to be a 2025 prospect that I’m really interested in drafting, but he fits a valuable archetype as a projectable 3 + D forward and is someone to keep an eye on long term. 

Richie Saunders doesn’t share the high-end physical tools that Catchings has, but he’s just a very good basketball player who knows how to impact winning. Saunders’ game is built around really high level feel, motor, and processing speeds on both ends of the court which allows him to be a relatively mistake-free player who is constantly moving and making things happen. He’s really effective playing off the catch on offense and his combination of feel and quick hands leads to a lot of deflections on the defensive end.

Saunders is someone who both impresses a lot when I watch him and also has a really solid statistical profile. He’s averaging less than 1 turnover per game, is shooting around 40% from 3, finishes at the rim at a high clip, and has nice STL + BLK rates. The biggest swing skill for Saunders that I’ll be looking at the rest of the year is the shooting. He’s had a nice start from 3pt but prior to this year he’s been closer to an average shooter. With some of his athletic limitations he is likely going to need to be a definitively above-average shooter to be an NBA player, but if the shooting improvements are real I can see Saunders being a quality 2nd round target.

The Versatility of Labaron Philon

Coming into the year my main impression of Labaron Philon was that he was a really crafty offensive minded guard that can create offense with the ball in his hands. And while that’s certainly remained true, I’ve been impressed with how well-rounded his game is for a teenage guard prospect and his ability to contribute on both ends. He’s not an elite level defender but he’s shown the ability to stay in front of the ball and he has the length to defend both guard spots. He’s had some struggles fighting through physical screens, but otherwise he’s done a really good job of staying attached on the ball when defending in space and has already been tasked with guarding some really high-level college guards.

Offensively, Alabama has let Philon have chances with the ball in his hands but he’s also had to fit in as a role player playing next to one of the most established guards in the country in Mark Sears. Philon’s ability to fit in well with or without the ball in his hands has stood out, as he already has a lot of quality complementary skills while still being someone who can create when you put the ball in his hands. He makes quick decisions off the catch and is good at extending advantages against a compromised defense. Alabama has even used Philon as a guard-to-guard screener in actions with Sears at times, which might not apply to his NBA role but speaks to the versatility and willingness to play a role that he’s shown this year.

Labaron needs to add some strength and he hasn’t looked comfortable or been effective from beyond the arc this season, but he has good enough shooting priors and natural touch to where it’s easy to believe in the shot improving. Outside of that he already has a good foundation of skills in place. His ability to play on or off the ball while competing defensively gives him the makings of a really solid all-around guard who can fit into different roles effectively, while his ball handling and ability to break down defenses off the dribble still give him the creation upside you’re looking for in a lottery caliber guard prospect. I view Philon as a solid 1st round prospect with a chance to climb into the lottery if he shoots it better from 3 the rest of the year. 

The Adou Thiero Breakout

One of four Kentucky transfers to follow John Calipari over to Arkansas, Adou Thiero has taken a huge leap offensively this season and has been his team’s leading scorer so far. He can still be rigid with the ball in his hands and isn’t a natural handler, but he’s clearly figuring out how to leverage his athletic gifts to get to the rim and has developed the ability to make tough off-balance jumpers from 10-15 feet out. Thiero is also a pretty solid passer for an energy guy and knows how to keep the ball moving and make basic passing reads.

The glaring issue right now is the 3pt shooting, which has always been something Thiero has struggled with. He doesn’t have the smoothest release and will put up some bad misses, and is sub 30% from 3pt for his college career. He is pretty good at using his size and athleticism to cut towards the rim when teams sag off of him, but the lack of 3pt shooting is still an issue. The hope for him is that the touch he’s shown on some of the shorter mid-range shots he’s been good at this year can be expanded out farther to the perimeter. 

The main selling point for Thiero is that he’s an elite defensive prospect, equipped with a special combination of physical tools and motor. It’s not hyperbole to say that you would be hard-pressed to find a player who consistently brings as much energy on the court as Thiero. The athletic tools let him put the motor to effective use as well, as he has the verticality to make plays on the interior as a rim protector, the foot speed to guard down on the perimeter, and the strength to match up against bigger wings and forwards. 

Ultimately it would be hard to justify taking Thiero with a high draft pick right now with how bleak his 3pt shooting profile looks, but he still has more long-term upside to tap into and is someone I’d be happy to take later in the draft as is because of all the other stuff he does well. He has all the intangibles and tools you want in an athletic end-of-the-bench energy guy early on in his career, while still having a clear path to being a valuable piece if he continues in his offensive development and is ever able to even be passable as a jump shooter.

The post Early Season Scouting Notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

^Zvonimir #14, listed at 7’2 across from his brother, Tomislav #13, listed at 7’0..

Ivisic’s skills are self-evident in the limited film, with maybe the most prominent one being his handful of quick triggered, no hesitation hoists from deep. The shot is quick, compact and without much use of lower body input. It’s an easy ball, and can be used as an effective option in pick-and-pop situations. One basic issue with the shooting is the volume, although he seemingly could not wait to get his shots up when he saw the floor for the first time. Even when compiling 3-point numbers from what I could find the last couple years, the grand total was still less than a hundred attempts, and same goes for free throw numbers. The eye-test for me says Ivisic is a shooter, but there will just need to be a bigger shooting sample to look at before fully checking that box in pen. But it is not the only skill Ivisic flashes.

Ivisic really captured some sort of magic in his debut, even summoning a wild behind-the-back pass while on-the-move. There are these occasional small glimpses into Ivisic’s vision as a passer, which manifest in highlight connections like that previously mentioned behind-the-back one, or with short-roll dishes to the rim or even more routine ones like in advance passes up the court. But there are also too many instances of poor, nonchalant passing execution and dumbfounding turnovers. Again, like with the shooting, there just isn’t enough film to confirm or deny his true proficiency as a passer, but the duality of questionable decision-making and functional passing upside is noted here. If Ivisic can hone and replicate those flashes as a short-roll and interior passer, it could begin to solidify his case as a pretty complete play-finisher out of the roll.

The skillset doesn’t stop there though, as Ivisic makes good use of footwork in several facets of his offensive game. As a screener, Ivisic is spry to screen continuously throughout a possession, flowing into actions with good pace and quickly diving out of screens. The screens themselves have a layer of physicality, with Ivisic showing that he can take a chunk out of the POA defender, although needs to clean up some of the illegal moving screens. In more conventional rolls to the rim, Ivisic is capable of finishing lobs, with signs of high-level coordination on adjustments for catches, although his vertical is not overwhelming. Ivisic also has nice feel and recognition for when both POA defenders are up on the ball-handler, slipping behind and finding the open space to settle into for the dump-off against the double team. Ivisic recognizes pretty immediately when he is open, and has his hands up as a target right away. And in those short-roll scenarios, Ivisic is generally under control and looking to advance upon the rim with intent to score, where his footwork shows up again as a useful tool. Ivisic does a nice job of utilizing pivots to find better finishing windows and even position himself for more powerful two-handed flushes at the rim. 

While his footwork and handle on short-area moves towards the rim are pretty effective, it is of note though that outside of some brief open-court handling from Ivisic in FIBA u20 that Ivisic’s ball-handling is not too functional. He had instances of issues keeping his dribble secure in tight spaces. That will need to be cleaned up at the very least for DHO actions, but it does not lend itself to Ivisic as any sort of threat to attack from the perimeter outside of on-the-catch with momentum. 

And while he is skilled getting into finishes, Ivisic plays in a more finesse-leaning tilt. As a big, there should be an element of punishing physicality to your game. A post game was non-existent for Ivisic at Kentucky, which is not a huge deal as he translates to the pros since he executes his role as a roller, but it may also indicate a lack of ability to overpower college defenders, as he did have instances of struggling to post up smaller defenders in FIBA u20. It may be that Ivisic naturally leans towards being a more finesse offensive player with occasional forceful dunks when he’s maneuvered into position. 

If Ivisic refines and applies all his strengths in a bigger role next year at Arkansas, then he may become one of the most versatile screener threats in the class on the pop, roll and short-roll.

For context, at Kentucky Ivisic often played alongside two of the most skilled guards in the 2024 Draft class. Arkansas will have an experienced grad-transfer guard in Johnell Davis, along with fellow Wildcat transfer DJ Wagner, and more freshmen guard talent, but they will not be the passers Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard were. Still, Ivisic’s dual threats out of screening actions should help his guards help him. And if Ivisic’s spacing ability is true, it gives Calipari some lineup flexibility with their other frontcourt players.

It is not unreasonable to be buying into Ivisic as an offensive player. But the big question for bigs is on the defensive end. Which defensive frontcourt roles can you fill? 

Ivisic has decent mobility for a 7 footer, but his initial stance on the perimeter is often not nearly low enough or engaged enough, routinely getting blown by right at the line of scrimmage. While Ivisic has some recoverability to make a play at the rim and make up for giving up the angle, NBA guards will have plenty of room in the intermediate area to use that angle to manipulate and handicap that recoverability, especially if the blow-by is occurring immediately way out on the perimeter. Ivisic is not the beefiest plodding center, and he can move fairly well, so the expectation should be placed higher for him guarding on the perimeter. Not asking Ivisic to lock anyone up, but just looking for him to be more competitive in this area and contain the ball better. Though Ivisic has shown great length, quick hands and quick reaction time to block jumpers on the perimeter. 

The lack of perimeter defense at this point for Ivisic hurts the case that he could possibly play some 4. Not only would the on-ball stuff be concerning, the supplementary weakside defense seems largely absent. Ivisic played the 4 for Croatia’s u20 team in 2023, while his brother played the 5, and he was very quiet as a weakside presence, with little-to-no activity coming from that position. The instincts for it just weren’t there. I won’t say this is damning for any case that Ivisic could play the 4 defensively, but in addition to the perimeter woes, it’s close. 

While Ivisic does have height and length that can be disruptive defensively at the rim and the timing of some blocks with his outstretched arms is nice, many instances came without rotating from very far. As a POA drop big, Ivisic’s positioning can be moderate to fair, sometimes losing a half step on a downhill driver just like his perimeter defense, ending up in that vulnerable position behind the ball-handler, but again has the recoverability that he unfortunately seems to rely a little too much on. More film of Ivisic as a defender is needed here to see how he has progressed in his positioning.

Lastly, the rebounding lacked physicality and finding box-outs was not routine, and at times it looked like Ivisic struggled a bit to cleanly end possessions with a rebound. Even in some post defense, Ivisic had a tough time battling for ground and post real estate. As a prospect who has nearly eliminated themselves from the proposition of playing the 4 defensively, Ivisic has a lot to prove as someone who can fulfill a center’s defensive duties in the NBA.

The argument for Ivisic revolves around his offensive versatility as a rolling and spacing threat, which is where he can separate himself from other prospects on that end, but each individual ability is far from concrete at this point. Ivisic will need to truly evolve each skill from a flash to a legitimate weapon. More importantly, at the end of the day a player who is confined to the center position defensively really needs to be a strong defensive anchor. With more minutes, Ivisic should have a chance to showcase growth on the defensive end. I will be looking for a more consistent awareness of the rim, and more physicality overall. 

The post Prospect Focus: Zvonimir Ivisic appeared first on Swish Theory.

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those four players hold 9 of the last 11 Finals MVP trophies. The NBA is a league dominated by large ball handlers, with the best leading their team to NBA finals infamy season after season. 

Few people will argue that the best players in the NBA are largely forward-sized (or larger), with Steph Curry as the only real challenger to that throne for nearly twenty years. What defines a successful NBA guard has changed over that time, but the lens with which we evaluate the position has not evolved along with it.

The search for a modern lead guard has become more and more difficult as time has progressed. In a world where the best players on championship teams are over the height of 6’6”, what does it mean to be a “lead guard” when you aren’t the driving force for your team? 

Let’s take a look at the conference finals of the last five years and what kinds of guards thrived in those environments.

In the East you have Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart (Derrick White?), Kyle Lowry (Miami and Toronto versions) and Trae Young. 

In the West there is Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso and Damian Lillard. 

There is a general feeling that a point guard is meant to be this ball-in-hand maestro, pressuring the rim while operating the offense like a puppeteer, but that is so rarely the case when the calendar turns to June. What are the skills most consistent with those above groupings? Any of versatility (in both offensive role and defensive assignment), overwhelming shooting gravity, and/or pick and roll excellence. No-look skip passes and mid-air acrobatics make for an incredible highlight tape, but in the last half decade of basketball has rarely been a driving force in championship success.

This lead guard mentality often seeps into the evaluation of draft prospects, docking players for not living up to a flawed standard. In the 2023 NBA draft there is a glut of guard prospects in the heart of the first round from Anthony Black to Kobe Bukin and Jalen Hood-Schifino, but there are two that stand out in the afterglow of playoff basketball.

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are two versions of the modern point guard, standing on the backs of excellence and versatility. In a crowded class, what makes these two prospects more suited for playoff basketball? The times have changed. 

The Prospect: Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace is the basketball personification of persistent excellence. Few teenagers have played a full season of college basketball while making as few mistakes as Cason did this past season. On the offensive end, Wallace toggled between an on-ball and off-ball role in a crowded backcourt, but seemingly always made the right decision. 

Wallace is the rare kind of prospect who never takes anything away from your team. He doesn’t make unforced errors or sloppy turnovers, he executes his scheme and chips away at you bit by bit. That kind of controlled dominance is something worth valuing in translation to a role in the NBA, but also from a developmental perspective.  

Succeeding in your role as a young player in the league is the fast track to increased opportunity. So few rookies enter the league as manageable defensive players, and those that are that have even an inkling of offensive skill are immediately thrown into the flames

That trial by fire will be Wallace’s rookie season, and few prospects have been as prepared. He will be on an NBA floor in October, a success for any NBA draft pick, but it is his potential impact in Junes to come that makes Cason Wallace an ideal modern point guard.

The Pitch: Floor General and Defensive Mastermind

The biggest knock against Cason is that he doesn’t quite have the juice you’re looking for out of a lead guard. In a wide-angle view, that is a stance I am sympathetic to. Wallace lacks your traditional “workout moves” you see out of lead ball handlers, rarely resulting in flashy combos or deft manipulation, winning his battles in a much more brutish and physical manner. 

That doesn’t lead to your typical draft prospect mixtape for a point guard, but the results themselves were statistically astounding.  Wallace is efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. At the rim, Wallace shot an astounding 66%, far and away the highest mark in the class amongst guards. His finishing quality comes from a combination of strength, touch and crafty finishing angles. He is not the most explosive guard with the ball in his hands, but his skill and athleticism more than compensates.

Beyond his finishing at the rim, Wallace shot a scalding 44.8% on dribble jumpers in the midrange. Despite his relatively low usage rate of 20.3, Wallace had an impressive volume of two-point self creation. He was never overwhelming, but was incredibly efficient in the types of shots NBA offenses will ask him to take. 

Wallace is best operating out of a pick and roll, allowing him to read the defense within a familiar construct and in turn make quality decisions. He is not the flashiest passer, but he makes the reads required of him in lay downs, pocket passes, or kickouts. He is not someone to create offense out of thin air, but give him a closeout or a ball screen and now you’re cooking with gas. 

Cason was efficient from everywhere on the floor this past season, particularly within the arc. Typically when you are really good at scoring in certain areas, teams will lean on that until you become less efficient. That never happened at Kentucky, the sky is blue and water is wet. I am not saying Cason Wallace is Jamal Murray or Devin Booker, but the idea he is incapable of shouldering a larger scoring load on offense does not track.  

There isn’t anything Cason should be asked to do at the next level that he won’t thrive at from day one. That immediate translatability is incredibly important. Wallace will have the opportunity for on court reps the moment he steps onto an NBA court, in large part because of his defensive impact.

Wallace is one of the most advanced defensive guards at his age in modern history. A team-defense wizard, he is always in the right place at the right time in help or jumping passing lanes. He is an effective defender in isolation and uses his strength well, but can struggle to navigate ball screens with a bulkier frame. He is still an effective defender on-ball and provides versatility there, but it is the off-ball defense that pays the bills.

The best defenders anticipate actions and are already there seemingly before it even happens. It’s a catalyst for good defense, plugging holes before they have time to let in water. You know the famous Derek Jeter play where he just appears behind home plate to complete an entirely insane series-saving play? That’s Cason Wallace.

The Fit: Steady Hand of the King to a Score First Wing

Teams built around a score-first forward like Giannis, Jayson Tatum or Kawhi Leonard are the ideal fit for a guard like Cason, and it is no coincidence they have found success next to guards with a similar value proposition in Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverly.

No matter how much teams stress offensive flow and inclusion, in playoff hoops the ball finds your star, and your offense is defined by what they do with it. They aren’t creating enormous advantages for others, so the necessary threshold for creation is higher for their teammates. You need to do something when the ball finds you and the defense has a short closeout, but the returns on self creation are diminishing.

The best self creator on the team is already installed, and only one person can create at a time. Boston is not taking the ball out of Jayson Tatum’s hands for a Marcus Smart iso (on purpose). Thriving in the other areas of the game is where you begin to see exponential impact, and that is the case for Cason. I am more optimistic than some regarding his ultimate upside as a scorer, but genuinely I am not sure how much it matters.

Cason Wallace will be thriving in playoff rotations for the next decade because of his defense and steady-handed efficiency. Cason Wallace’s game is built for modern playoff basketball. Prospects with that certainty of two way competence do not come around often. For a point guard on a wing-led team, the combination of supreme defensive impact and scalable, diverse offense is a proven recipe for success. Beyond immediate translatability the combination of early-career opportunity, defensive processing and athleticism are a proven recipe for outlier development. 

The Prospect: Nick Smith Jr

Nick Smith Jr is a fixer-upper fan’s dream. A top-five recruit entering college many expected to be in contention for a top-three pick, the flashes of electric athleticism, limitless shooting and instinctual passing seemed to be the foundation of a creator. 

A preseason wrist injury requiring surgery and an in-season knee injury all but sapped any hope of Smith building on his positive momentum entering the year, and as a result his potential draft position has slid precipitously.

This is a phenomenon that irks me to my core. Nick Smith Jr is not a meaningfully different prospect than he was a year ago. His foundation of quick-twitch athleticism, shot versatility and budding self creation remain an ever-present part of his appeal as a prospect and his freshman season showed flashes of it all.

Any player that misses training camp, the beginning of the season, and is then sidelined for two months with a (minor) knee injury is going to struggle to integrate themselves into a system, particularly one as spacing deprived as Arkansas this past season.

It is easy to look at the macro-level statistical output and lower NSJ down your board accordingly, but that statistical sample is far too flawed to take at face value.  

The Pitch: On- and Off-Ball Creation

The first thing you have to start with when discussing Nick’s freshman season is the shot. The numbers from an efficiency perspective were incredibly poor, especially for a prospect billed to be an excellent shooter. The context of his injuries, wrist and knee, are important in understanding that sample.

Could it be possible that the only real difference in his success as a shooter between this year and last is his health, and comfort getting into his shot? In my eyes, that feels more likely the more I watch. Smith wasn’t just a good shooter in high school, his touch was outlandish and his range was already Lillard-esque. Shot creators take a long time to develop into efficient scorers, so it is no shock an injury-riddled season led to inefficiency. With that said, NSJ’s flashes as an initiator, using his gravity and shot versatility to create offense, were as scalding as ever.

Learning to harness your gravity is what catalyzes the offensive impact of guard creators like Nick, but it is something that only comes with time. It takes a high level of feel and creative boldness to truly maximize that kind of offensive weapon as an off-ball mover and freestyle passer.

Nick can make reads in the pick and roll in the half court that lead well to future projection as a passer and creator for others, but it is his excellence within the confines of chaos that truly intrigues me. When things go awry, the ball seems to always find its way to Nick, and in turn the spectacular follows.

The free flowing nature of modern basketball is made for a freestyle artist like Nick Smith Jr, and he will thrive in the chaos of transition as soon as he enters the league. That open court creativity fuels the dream of potential half-court creation. 

This past season Smith settled a lot in the half court, too often chucking up a difficult floater early into a drive. From a sheer volume perspective, NSJ trailed only Brice Sensabaugh and Jalen Hood-Schifino in per70 mid-range scoring, the only issue being his drastically lower efficiency.

Unlike Brice and JHS, who often struggle to create initial advantages yet find a way to score, Smith is a shifty handler with real burst. His handle is still rudimentary at times (see: injury, wrist) but his comfortability with unorthodox movement styles and jitter-bug athleticism make for an encouraging creator bet as he grows into his frame.

That last part is the key, and ties directly into his overall efficiency woes. Smith is able to create initial advantages, but often is too weak in his handle or frame to maintain them, much less finish through rim protection waiting in the paint. 

The Fit: Score First Robin to a Jumbo Playmaker Batman 

You don’t have to look far to find the ideal test case for this fit, with the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets showing just how effective it can be. The NBA is dominated by larger playmakers, and it makes sense: the taller you are, the more passing windows you have at your disposal. Be it Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic or more unproven options like LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Amen Thompson, size and passing ability are a combination of skills you find in foundational pieces of rosters across the league.

Smith is the ideal player to pair with that style of creator for a few different reasons. Offensively, his scalability both on and off ball is a valuable trait, as the style of his game thrives in both settings. The versatility of Smith’s game relies on his jumper, and that is the thing I am most confident in projecting forward. One injury-marred season doesn’t change that. 

Adding size and the ability to play through contact would be next in line, and one that feels pretty safe to project (at least to a moderate degree) considering his frame and age. NSJ is never going to be a bully ball guard, but he has the height and length to grow into a stronger player than he is currently. Being able to finish some looks through traffic would be a positive step, and something that should come easier on a properly spaced NBA floor with NBA level offensive players surrounding him.

On the defensive end, much of the vision again relies on Smith adding at least a modicum of strength. He is a hyper-quick athlete with the kind of twitchiness you need out of a point of attack defender in ball screens. He does an excellent job of using his body to maneuver through screens while staying locked behind the defender, where his length does wonders as he recovers to contest. 

Certainly there were major lapses in technique and attentiveness throughout the year, but when things were clicking the vision of NSJ as a player who can successfully fill a role in an effective defense begins to look a little clearer.  

This is not to say NSJ is going to be a high impact defensive player (though I am undoubtedly higher on his defensive potential than most), but he does fill a useful role for most rosters. No star, big or small, wants to defend opposing point guards at the point of attack. Smith has the tools to succeed there, and with the proper organizational emphasis should do well enough there to provide value, all while being an incredibly dynamic offensive player.

That road to even moderate impact is important, as it means the likelihood of a prospect becoming a “man without a country” on the defensive end. NSJ may not be the best POA guy in the league, but he has the tools to fare much better than the alternative. Taking the defensive assignment nobody wants to take and providing potential star offensive value on and off the ball is like team building fertilizer, it makes growing a healthy roster landscape that much easier. 

The Wrap: Guards are Good

The idea of a “lead guard” is a useful concept, one that describes a general archetype that is one of the most valuable in the league, but its definition has become too narrow. 

In a modern NBA where offensive initiation is more diversified than ever before, the requirements of point guards differ on nearly every single NBA team. The idea that being a point guard requires three-level self creation and advanced passing reads to be an A1 point guard prospect is overly dismissive. 

The best guards in the postseason are the guards that mesh perfectly with the needs of their surrounding talent. Every player has their own strengths and weaknesses, team building in the NBA is about finding players that accentuate the strengths of the best players in your team. 

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are primed with strengths that enhance modern title contenders and the players around them with the upside to change the course of a championship.  Sounds like a lead guard to me. 

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A year after averaging just 6.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game for a Missouri team that finished 3rd to last in the SEC, Trevon Brazile has emerged as one of the best players on an Arkansas squad currently ranked top ten in the nation. Through seven games, he is on pace to nearly double his scoring average from last year with 11.9 points per game. How exactly has Brazile made such a massive leap in production, and how high can he rise as an NBA prospect? 

Offense

Brazile spent most of his time on clean-up crew last season, damaging defenses on put-backs, cuts, and dump-offs. More than half of his makes rim makes were dunks, with over 70% of those field goals coming off assists. While certainly not an offensive engine, Brazile’s has taken on a larger role in Arkansas’ offense. Utilized more frequently as a roll-man, closeout attacker, and pick-and-pop shooter, his usage rate has increased from 16.3% to 21.2%.

Seeing Brazile find success as a roll man this year is unsurprising. Despite his incredible bounce and wide catch-radius, Missouri rarely used him as a roller. Brazile should be able to threaten defenses as vertical spacer at the pro level, and his current average of 1.95 dunks/40 is a solid mark for a college 4-man. However, I’d be hesitant to label him an elite PnR finisher at just 212 lbs. I would also like to see him set stronger screens going forward. His quick slips to the basket can be effective, but Brazile rarely seems to generate any contact on his screens.

It’s dangerous to make sweeping claims about shooting improvements based on a seven-game sample, but Brazile’s early season numbers are promising. He has knocked down 10 of his 26 3-point attempts, good for 38.5%. Most encouraging is the volume spike. After taking just 3.7 3PA/100 last year, Brazile is currently putting up 6.9 attempts per 100. The diet consists primarily of pick-and-pops, spot-ups, and the occasional semi-movement jumper. Though his dip is still somewhat elongated, he looks far more confident letting it fly than he did at Missouri. Record-scratching moments like the first clip below are now few and far between.

Coming into the season, I was curious to track Brazile’s development as a slasher. He certainly isn’t a pro-level closeout attacker yet, but he has shown some encouraging improvements. 50% of his rim makes have come unassisted this season versus just 29.5% last year. Even though he misses the initial attempts in the first clip below, it is great to see him getting somewhat low and generating contact. Brazile’s snappy second jump allows him to put-back many of his misses at the rim. Still, his loose handle, lack of shake, and strength deficiencies limits him as a driver and finisher. Developing a reliable push shot could be an avenue to greater efficiency inside the arc, a maneuver that isn’t currently a consistent tool in his bag (1/12 on non-rim 2-pointers).

The final clip in the above compilation, in which he misses both the push shot and an open Anthony Black in the corner, highlights another area of improvement for Brazile: passing. He has only recorded seven assists so far this season, and while his role doesn’t necessarily put him in situations to show off any particularly advanced passing reads, I’d like to see him make quicker decisions when attacking off the catch.

Defense

Though he may lack the bulk to be a full-time big, Brazile is a phenomenal rim-protector with exceptional length and instincts. He gets off the ground quickly and loads up with ease for second and third jumps. Check him out denying the massive Kofi Cockburn not once, not twice, but three times.

Brazile posted a remarkable 10.0% block rate last season, with just 2.4 fouls per 40. Of the 19 high major Freshmen who recorded a block rate higher than 4.0% in 2021-22, all except two averaged less than four personal fouls per 40 minutes: Alex Fudge (4.8 BLK%, 3.2 Fouls/40) and Trevon Brazile (10.0 BLK%, 2.4 Fouls/40). This speaks to Brazile’s awareness, coordination, and hand placement. The list of high-major Freshmen with block rates greater than 8.0% and under 3 fouls/40 since 2008 is short and sweet:

The play below is an absurd display of athleticism. He rotates from the weak side, gets his head literally to the level of the rim off a standing leap, locates the ball, and contorts his body to pin the shot.

In the limited Arkansas sample, his block rate is way down (4.0%), and the foul rate is way up (4.1 personal fouls/40). Seeing the fouls increase isn’t necessarily horrible, though ~4 is a bit high for my liking. There were times when Brazile seemed to shy away from contact last season, leading to lower foul numbers. This year, he looks more aggressive around the rim, providing much more resistance in the post. I’ve also loved his tenacity on the glass, with a 22.9% defensive rebounding rate thus far.

Moments of rawness persist on film, whether it be falling asleep away from the ball or getting his footwork tangled on-ball. But when fully locked in, Brazile does an excellent job using his length and movement skills to shrink offensive advantages. He covers ground exceptionally well and causes havoc in the passing lanes. He has the foot speed to stick with smaller ball handlers, and even when shaken, his massive reach allows him to recover to contest jumpers.

Conclusion

Brazile offers an exciting ceiling as a two-way Forward with his defensive playmaking ability and budding offensive skill set. I question how he contributes offensively if his shooting improvements aren’t legit, and think he has plenty of room to grow from a play-to-play perspective defensively. But if Brazile continues to shoot with the confidence he has to start the season, it’s hard to imagine him sliding outside the top 20 on draft day.

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