This may sound like I’m being critical, but I’m not. Long-term star injuries for contenders are rightfully watershed moments in NBA thinking, especially regarding team building. How can you not? The same moment happened when Kevin Durant grabbed his leg in Toronto during the 2019 Finals. And given the cascading effect of that injury, we were right to speculate wildly.

Although the Celtics are unlikely to experience the catastrophic post-injury season that Golden State went through, many of the same assumptions apply. The team won’t be contending this upcoming season. Their immediate window is over. Tough questions will have to be asked of the roster. The question for me becomes, can the Boston Celtics use this tragic injury to their benefit in the long run?

Key Assumptions

Those reading this most likely fall under the umbrella of NBA sicko-dom. You follow Keith Smith, you’ve opened Spotrac to check on contracts, and you can list CBA rules off the top of your head. You know, normal people stuff. The average NBA fan has some idea of how the salary cap works, but the motivations of NBA front offices/ownership groups and the avenues to accomplish their goals may be more of a mystery. My first assumption is that most people who wear Celtics hats don’t understand the ramifications of the salary cap.

The worst-kept secret in the NBA is that everybody fears the consequences of the luxury tax. Even Warriors owner Joe Lacob, with a franchise seemingly doubling in value yearly and a line of minority investors in Patagonia quarter-zips around the block, feared the tax. The Boston Celtics hit their tax window perfectly, setting up a two-year run of having Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White all paid their worth. That first season resulted in a championship. The second, as we know, was a tragedy. My second assumption is that no matter how these playoffs went, the bill was coming due, and a slash-and-burn salary dumping was coming this offseason.

But the dollar figure is secondary here. What matters most are the restrictions associated with salary cap overages. New ownership will want a clean slate upon which to build a new team instead of being beholden to the transactions of the old regime. This leads us to the number that will define Boston’s offseason.

$19,959,873

The second apron is the word you’ll hear a lot this offseason. That amount you see above is the projected dollar amount Boston needs to cut to get below that figure. The second apron is extremely restrictive for a team that will need to be nimble over the next few seasons.

First and foremost, it stops you from aggregating multiple outgoing salaries together in trades or taking in more money than you send out. As long as they’re above the apron, Boston cannot send out multiple players in a single trade, and their cap number can only decrease in any trade. This, by itself, is very limiting. On top of that, if you spend three out of five years in the second apron, your first-round pick automatically becomes the 30th overall pick. It also limits the future draft picks you can trade.

The goal of this new CBA was to promote parity around the league, spread the talent out, make dynasties harder to form over years, and engage every fan base. When you’re the Boston Celtics, having five players making $28+ million is like walking into a bear den with your pockets full of beef jerky.

Boston’s championship team was $5 million above the second apron, and this year’s team was $4.4 million over. Don’t just take this prediction from me: Wyc Grousbeck, the newly former Celtics owner, said it himself. Since the draft pick penalty rolls over five years, the Celtics would have their first-round picks moved to #30 in several upcoming seasons. They would need to duck the second apron for three consecutive seasons to avoid further penalties.

In short, if the Celtics don’t find a way to shed this money, they’ll be strung up by their ankles trying to improve this roster in the coming years. Jayson Tatum is 27 years old, Jaylen Brown is 28 years old, and the two project to have many great years of basketball ahead of them. This limitation on their roster-building capabilities would be tough to overcome. Now, let’s figure out how Boston can get under this.

One last number to consider here: 13. Boston has to enter the season with at least 13 players to meet the league minimum requirement. As things stand, they have 12 under contract for next year. So all moves will need to keep that target number in mind.

The Jrue Holiday Issue

Jrue is the first and foremost player in these conversations. This season was the first year of a four-year, $134 million extension Holiday signed after the championship run. They wanted to take care of him for the chance at back-to-back titles, but it has been clear he would be one of the first to go, especially as he declines going into his age-35 season.

This article isn’t about speculating who Boston can acquire; you’re all adults capable of working a trade machine. This is about the math needed for a route to cap relief. So here’s the breakdown on what Boston can do to whittle down that $20 million tax overage, starting with Jrue’s $32.4M salary.

Boston must take back at least 80% of Jrue’s salary in a two-team deal. Assuming they can find a deal to take back the minimum, whether one player or multiple, that would be $6.48M in savings. That’s roughly a third of the number needed. It gets even more interesting when you take three-team deals into account. The 80% rule doesn’t have to go all the way around. Boston can send Jrue to one team, then that team can send the 80% of Jrue’s salary to a third team, who can in turn send 80% of THAT salary back to Boston.

If GM Brad Stevens can make a three-team deal work at the minimum amount, Boston could take back a minimum of $20.74M. That would be $11.66M in total savings, more than half of the number needed. Assuming this gets done by acquiring two or more players, that would also put Boston at or above the 13 minimum required players. Now, we’re left with some flexibility and several ways to get the remaining $8.3M off the books.

Remaining Options

I will take a leap here and assume that neither Jayson Tatum nor Jaylen Brown will be dealt. That leaves a few avenues for the remaining money.

First, and most obviously, they can move on from Kristaps Porzingis and his expiring $30.7M salary. If Boston again takes back the minimum salary in a two-team deal, that’s $6.14M in savings. Expanding to a three-team deal, the Celtics could save up to $11M; only taking back $19.7M in the exchange. That could cover the tax amount needed, but something else comes into play: the upcoming draft. Boston owns the 28th and 32nd overall picks, and assuming they draft and keep players at both those slots, that salary would put them back into the apron.

There are avenues to overcome this. Neemias Queta, Xavier Tillman, and Jordan Walsh all have minimum-level deals that could be salary dumped into the cap room of another team, or traded for non-guaranteed contracts that Boston can then waive. But it would be tight and would cut into their 13-player roster minimum.

Another option would be Sam Hauser and his $10M salary. His contract is small enough to be traded into an exception or cap room for teams with cleaner salary sheets. That and some trades involving the minimum deals above would accomplish the task. This would be even tougher to navigate with the player minimums, however. Turning Hauser and one or more others into zero returning players would put extra pressure on a Jrue Holiday trade to include three or more players coming back.

I lean towards Porzingis being the solution here. His expiring deal and dip in play this year make him an obvious candidate. Hauser did have a down year, but he fits the system well and is on the books for four more years. Trading Hauser for other players wouldn’t accomplish much due to the tax problems. So, of the more obvious solutions after Jrue, Kristaps makes the most sense.

However, Porzingis and Hauser aren’t the only solutions to this.

The Nuclear Option

One assumption I’ve made up until this point is that Boston is making these moves with the intention of returning to the fray with the same core after Tatum is healthy. Their star wing pairing, plus Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, can all stay on the roster while they duck the second apron. That would almost certainly make them a playoff team in a weak East next year with Brown, White, Pritchard, and whatever they get back for the above trades.

But there are alternatives. What if Boston looks at Derrick White, about to turn 31 and begin a four-year, $118 million extension, as a potential negative asset by the time Tatum returns? After all, defense-first guards tend to fall off cliffs sooner than expected. Perhaps Boston thinks it can get out of the casino before going bust by trading White to a more immediate contender, getting a big haul of picks, and truly re-tooling.

Pritchard is another question. His four-year, $30 million extension is an absolute steal for the Sixth Man of the Year. His upcoming $6.7M salary wouldn’t solve the tax problems by itself, but that low salary would certainly up his price in a potential deal.

Perhaps Boston thinks it can trim the fat on declining or less essential players and try to run it back in 2026-27. An alternative would be to trade White, Pritchard, and Hauser in addition to Holiday for short-term deals and let Porzingis stick around. That would clear a whopping $83.8 million, and open up nearly $60 million in cap room for the season when Tatum returns.

It would be a whole lot of uncertainty. That level of teardown could rip apart the fabric of Boston’s culture. Even if the internal promises to Tatum/Brown indicate this isn’t a true rebuild, it’s hard to trust someone on their word if the results are poor. There is the risk that if you break things apart you may be unable to build them again. But it could potentially raise the ceiling of the team once Tatum is back in the fold.

Which Way, Butler Man?

If you’ve taken anything away from this, know that Boston will be saying some tough goodbyes this offseason. And that general manager Brad Stevens will have many ways to accomplish this.

The fans’ goodwill after this injury effectively buys you a season to do what is needed. The title expectations are on hiatus. Stevens could trim salary, retain the core, and acquire some flexibility. Or he can take significant steps to reload Boston’s draft picks and try to fill as many rotation spots as possible with draft picks, enabling them to take a chance on acquiring more star talent.

There are so many variables at play here. Does the core want to stay? Will Al Horford wish to come back to a team that won’t be able to contend next season? Can stud head coach Joe Mazzulla coach a 45-win team the same way he can coach a 60-win team? Is Boston willing to risk getting Milwaukee’d by seeing one of their outgoing players end up on a team they’ll have to face in coming years, as Jrue Holiday did with their team? Most variable of all, does Boston believe that Tatum can come back strong after such a devastating injury?

I’d be surprised if any team is more active in trade calls this offseason. It’s an unusual position for a high-profile team to be quasi-sellers with two All-Stars on the roster, but thems the breaks. When that Shams Charania notification about Boston trading a piece away hits your phone this summer, you’ll know why these deals are being done.

The post The Boston Celtics Rebuild Window appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

On pace to win 65 games, they are running laps around the Eastern Conference. They hold the best net rating in the league and have established themselves as clear title favorites yet again. Boston has not reached these heights in the Jayson Tatum era, which is especially impressive for a team that has played at a 53-win pace since he was drafted.

But the whole regular season is treated as one big “yeah, but” due to their recent playoff failings. Four conference finals appearances in six years have produced just one Finals trip, a gut-punch loss to a Warriors team that was objectively inferior. Not even this level of regular season success can erase that from the minds of observers.

Their search for answers led to the acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in the offseason, moving on from reigning 6MOY Malcolm Brogdon and fan icon/former DPOY Marcus Smart. Jrue fills in a lot of what Smart did (and didn’t) do, but Porzingis is a new element entirely for this team. Easily the most well-rounded Celtics big since Kevin Garnett, Porzingis is a player destined to be the swing factor in this title chase.

A major element of change he brings is the post-up game. Porzingis is why Boston has jumped from 24th in post-up frequency last season to 2nd this year. The efficiency has also jumped from 13th to tops in the league. Boston has struggled in the playoffs in large part due to massive offensive droughts, ones in which the team banks on 3-point reliance and fails to generate looks inside the arc. KP’s skills in the post may be the kind of slump-breaker they need when these droughts hit.

Let’s explore how Porzingis’ post-up skills have thrived in Boston.

The Numbers

Porzingis posts up 3.1 times per game, placing him 8th in the entire league. It’s the efficiency that stands out: his 1.40 points per possession leads all players averaging at least one post-up. Elite efficiency and high frequency add up to 4.3 points per game in the post, a mark eclipsed only by Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Anthony Davis. Not a bad list to be on.

I was curious about what fueled this success before I dove into the film. I tracked every possession by shot type to see where his strengths lie and it blew me away.

Leading the league in post-up efficiency when 70% of the shots are jumpers? Unbelievable. He’s making a remarkable 64% of those looks in addition to a 72% mark on his shots around the rim. How did Porzingis become so dangerous?

Lethal Shooting

This is the real lethal shooting. No moving rims covered in knives, just cold-blooded buckets.

The face-up jumper is the best weapon in his arsenal at a frightening 77.3%. His blend of body control, timing, and touch makes it nearly unguardable. Of course, being taller than every NBA player not named Victor Wembanyama is a huge boon.

Though not as deadly as the face-up shot, the turnaround is his preferred weapon. Porzingis is especially adept at turning over his left shoulder, often needing only one hand for a sort of turnaround push shot. At 56.3% it’s a high-quality part of his bag as well.

Seldom used, the step-back represents only 4.8% of his post-up shots, but it’s still something he can go to when needed. A little variety never hurts.

He’s a lot more than just a pretty jumper when it comes to his efficiency.

Prolific Foul Drawing

Of the 56 players posting up at least once per game, Porzingis has the top free throw rate at 31.7%. His positioning skills, quick release, and Inspector Gadget arms make it extremely difficult for opposing players to avoid contact. It’s very common for defenders to wrap him up when he is posting a mismatch. In addition to the wrap-ups, Porzingis draws plenty of fouls on his jump shot attempts.

There’s a lot more to his post game than just shooting the cover off the ball and drawing fouls. KP is a master of putting himself in positions to succeed, and I want to highlight how he generates optimal post-up chances.

A Master of Opportunism

Kristaps is quick to recognize his opportunities to post up, especially against mismatches. It’s not that teams are comfortable putting smaller defenders on him and living with the result. Porzingis works hard to force the opposing defense into giving him the mismatches he wants to take full advantage of.

Transition leakouts and cross-matching with early seals are a favorite trick of his:

This is how he gets the majority of his rim looks from the post. Get into deep position in transition, seal, then turn and finish before the rest of the defense can organize itself. Simple as that.

In the halfcourt, Porzingis loves to punish switching with his post game. A switch out of the pick and roll is his bread and butter:

Dribble handoffs are another way for Porzingis to force these switches and an equally effective one at that:

If teams are foolish enough to soft switch preemptively, he will feast:

Boston’s proclivity for a 5-out alignment means switching is inevitable, or else they will blow teams out of the water. They can try to take other things away come playoff time but the KP post-ups will be a constant threat. And though most of these looks are generated organically by the flow of the offense, coach Joe Mazzulla loves to sprinkle in some clever backscreen plays to open up chances, utilizing Derrick White‘s superior guard screening:

Come playoff time, these looks will be extremely difficult to take away from Porzingis, and the elite efficiency means a dependable source of offense is present even when all else fails. Not only does it serve to get him repeatable high-value looks, but it can kickstart the offense for the rest of the team.

Quality Post Playmaking

I don’t have access to assist numbers from the post (Second Spectrum, I want you.), but he is a quality post passer while keeping the turnovers down. He’s in the better half of turnover percentage among the aforementioned high-frequency post-up group. There are instances of poor reads or pass placement from the post, to be sure:

Porzingis is pretty good at recognizing opportunities, and even the basic passing reads can lead to easy offense for his teammates:

What impressed me the most was how he manipulated help shifting from the weak side to find shooters or cutters:

He’s no Jokic, but it’s playmaking that will suffice. It’s also an extremely important layer to safeguard his scoring. If you choose to double, he’ll make the right reads to get his teammates involved. If not, he’ll fry you with his jump shot or force a foul. A true pick-your-poison situation.

How Does This Change Boston’s Playoff Outlook?

Even if he scales up slightly in the postseason, the post-up offense he generates represents roughly 5% of their offensive output. It’s not suddenly going to be one of their primary methods of scoring.

What is crucial is when these touches come. When Boston inevitably hits a cold streak from deep, they have a reliable scoring option inside that doesn’t require a drive. They can also play inside-out from their 5-out alignments through his post-ups, generating better looks to help break their slump. It also presents an interesting late-game option. As an alternative to Jayson Tatum’s crunch time “Hey look at me I’m Kobe!” moments, a Porzingis post-up is a viable high-quality look.

As previously mentioned, it’s extremely hard to take post-ups out of the equation entirely. Boston will have an attainable and efficient look at their disposal even in the most dire cold streaks. Margins are thin in the postseason as we know. A timely post jumper here, a kickout there, and a cold streak ended now and then could be the difference in a game, a series, or a title run. You never know.

The post Kristaps Porzingis’ Post-Up Excellence appeared first on Swish Theory.

This will be a lot of shooting film, and I’m not talking about Abraham Zapruder. Though, if Hauser were standing on the grassy knoll, he would have been quite accurate.

Shooting was *the* sell on Hauser coming out of college after four years at Marquette and Virginia. He still managed a modest split of three-point attempts vs. twos, roughly 60-40. Since joining Boston, they have boiled down his offensive game to a level of pure three-point shooting rarely seen, even in today’s NBA.

Hauser’s .882 three-point rate is a top-five mark we have EVER seen in the league, only eclipsed by Duncan Robinson and Dāvis Bertāns among players to reach similar minutes per game thresholds. In short, nearly 90% of Hauser’s total field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. This hyperspecialization has become an important cog of Boston’s offense, a team uniquely able to showcase his strengths and mask his weaknesses with a blend of drivers and dunker spot threats on offense with plenty of capable perimeter stoppers and rim protectors on the defensive end.

Without further ado, let’s dive into what makes Hauser tick.

Shooting, Shooting, Shooting.

In this case, I will skip the “offensive overview” section because he’s so specialized. Take a look at his shot chart if you need further evidence.

Marvel at the beauty of it. Bask in the glory that is Sam Hauser’s shot profile. Whether you are hooper-pilled or an analytics-monger, you can appreciate this level of dedication to a craft.

Hauser is hitting over 43% of his looks from deep for the second time in three NBA seasons. His career “worst” mark so far comes in at 41.8%. Putting that into context: Klay Thompson, widely considered one of the top shooters in league history, has three total seasons eclipsing that mark in 11 seasons. And you could argue that they form similar shot profiles in terms of movement and pulling from well beyond the arc. Hauser is already putting himself in rarified air.

But this isn’t just about results. If you have read ANY of my work, you know that process is 90% of the battle to me. HOW you get the shots speaks much more to an overall skillset than the amount that goes in. Scaling up in difficulty and versatility of the shot while continuing to produce results is how you put yourself in the elite stratosphere of three-point threats.

So we will work from the basics (catch-and-shoot, relocations) to the complex (movement/off-the-dribble shooting) and, finally, the schematic (plays run to get him a variety of looks) to understand how Sam Hauser has entered this elite conversation.

Meat and Potatoes Shooting

88% of Hauser’s total shots are of the catch-and-shoot variety, and he sits at 43.4% on those looks. Unlike many off-ball shooters, Hauser boasts deep range and the ability to move around to open up more looks. He can comfortably go out to 30 feet if needed with a swift trigger.

When open and stationary, Hauser is lethal. What impresses me about his game is the sense of when and where to relocate to take advantage of the defense and create better passing angles for his teammates.

There’s the simple stuff, like moving spots in the corner:

Hauser is also adept at lifting from the corners, a good way to take advantage of a tilting defense.

Sam also knows when to run the reverse, relocating from the break to the corner when the ballhandler has gotten paint penetration.

In short, Hauser has mastered all of the tools to be a strong catch-and-shoot guy. Be in the spots you need to be, release quickly, and hit the shots. But it’s what he does beyond this that moves me.

Movement Maestro

Many of the relocation shots above could be classified as movement shooting, depending on your view of the skill. Hauser shows the ability for much more than what you’ve seen already.

Right-handed shooters are often better going to their left; the momentum transfer is easier and squaring yourself to the basket comes more naturally. It’s no surprise that a shooter of Hauser’s stature is quite good at this.

That brief moment of alignment is all Sam needs to get a balanced shot, despite his entire momentum going left. It’s incredibly impressive and often taken for granted.

Another key piece in his arsenal is the upper body alignment regardless of his shooting base. When given time and room, Hauser’s shot base is on the wider side. But if the situation calls for it, Hauser can narrow his base and count on his upper body coordination and strength to get proper alignment for the shot.

Squaring yourself to the basket while going right can often be more difficult. It requires more momentum control to stop the power from getting away from the shooter. Hauser has conquered this shot, largely due to his quick release. He can afford the brief slow-down needed to control this momentum with the speed of his release. An extra dribble in these cases adds an extra layer of control necessary, a tool often used by the aforementioned Klay Thompson.

There is another piece of movement shooting often overlooked: forward momentum shots. Essentially, can you balance yourself enough while sprinting forward into the shot? The answer with Hauser is unequivocally yes.

Once again you can see how Sam can turn a ton of momentum into balance with a brief moment of alignment. He stops the sprint, aligns his lower and upper body (again with a narrow base), and initiates the momentum transfer to hit a DEEP three.

Going left, right, forward, it doesn’t matter for Sam. He’s going to make it work. This is a huge reason why the playbook of Joe Mazzulla can be opened up for him.

Schematic Usage

Again, we will work from the simple to the more complex here.

Hauser’s size makes him an effective screener, even if not a roll threat. It can open up a variety of pick and pops or pick and fades with the right ballhandler.

It works especially well with a handler like Tatum on the ball. Teams will often double or at least show at the level of the screen to deny him getting downhill, allowing Hauser to pop or fade behind the screen into open space before the help can recover.

Boston is creative in how to further leverage this skill with Hauser in the middle of the action. Below, you’ll see a similar setup with an extra wrinkle:

With Hauser setting a screen for a less dangerous ballhandler in Payton Pritchard, he cannot rely on the extra help sent to create space. Instead, Boston utilizes a flare screen for Hauser, the initial screener, to further confuse the help PNR defender and create a chance for an open look. The rookie Ben Sheppard is tasked with chasing Hauser after the initial screen, and Obi Toppin has more than enough athleticism to rise to the level of the screen for a contest. Still, Hauser’s movement talent and quick release make this shot possible to execute on a well-drawn play.

Boston has other ways for Hauser to involve himself in ball-screen actions in the bag as well.

This is another way to leverage the extra attention that Jayson Tatum commands. Joel Embiid rises to the screen with Tobias Harris chasing, effectively ignoring Al Horford as a roll/pop threat. Instead of becoming a scoring threat, Horford sets a curl screen behind the play for Hauser with only Robert Covington there to defend two players. Even though he misses the shot, this is a quality look to leverage Hauser’s movement skills.

Hauser can also have looks run specifically for him off the ball, without any on-ball screening necessary. Simple pin-down screens going to his right leverage his unique momentum control.

Then there is my favorite look Boston has used: the ghost screen in Spain PNR actions.

Setting up initially as the backscreener to sell the action, Hauser pops out to the perimeter for a three-point look on both occasions. His skillset is such that he can quickly hit an open look if it’s generated or dribble into a reload if being closed out as he does in the first clip. That’s a really fun way to get him going and use the complacency of the defense against them. Make them expect one thing, then do another. Extremely hard to defend.

Lastly, Hauser makes for a strong weapon on sideline or baseline out-of-bounds plays with his reliable movement shooting.

The staggered screens getting Hauser going to his left are a dangerous weapon. The angle for Santi Aldama to chase him is very narrow and brutal to get around, but if Memphis tries to switch it opens up a slip for Al Horford or an open perimeter shot, which he pops out of the screen to create, or even a DHO look with Payton Pritchard who sets the initial screen. Layers upon layers of danger for the defense if the first look isn’t clean, which it is in this case.

So, Hauser is a dangerous shooter in all manners off the ball. A variety of angles and plays can open him up in addition to being knockdown when spacing flat-footed from the corners and wings. This leads us to an important question…

Well, What Else Does He Do?

Well, here’s where the trouble starts.

If Hauser is being run off the line, there’s not much else he does offensively. Take for example these pin-down screens where the defense opens up a chance to get downhill:

The first clip is rough; missing the opportunity to pass to the corner shooter as Jarace Walker locks on to the layup like a homing missile shows poor process. The second one is good, but there is a lot of window dressing that goes into this look, with dual-sided actions needed to keep the defense distracted. It’s not going to be every possession that Hauser is defended by someone like Buddy Hield who does not have the size or speed to contain him properly.

Getting blocked on his twos is a major issue. Hauser has taken 11 shots at or near the rim that weren’t putback attempts; five of those have been blocked.

This is a product of two skill issues: lack of finishing craft and awareness of the defense. Driving directly into a player like Andre Drummond without changing speeds or using a fake is bound for failure. Running out in transition and telegraphing the finish begs for a trailing defender like De’Anthony Melton to reject the shot.

There are also some evident handle and control issues once he puts the ball on the deck.

That’s what those of us in the business call an “oopsie”.

Hauser’s size would theoretically make him a post-up threat on smaller matchups. But the previous issue of telegraphing his movements led to many strips.

Danilo Gallinari is a lot of things defensively. He’s still a veteran who will see a chance to knock the ball loose and capitalize on those chances. Hauser is simply not good enough with his gathers, footwork, or finishing skill to be a threat there at the moment.

This isn’t to say that Hauser is useless offensively unless shooting from the perimeter. The offensive rebounding numbers aren’t jumping off the page by any means (41st percentile amongst forwards) but his perimeter-oriented role means he has to pick his spots to crash. He often capitalizes on those spots.

Hauser is possessed of a good sense of where the ball is going off the rim. It’s not Last Dance Dennis Rodman level, but it’s something that adds further offensive utility. There are also moments where Hauser puts it all together for some strong putbacks.

I also have an appreciation for how Sam makes quick swings. A perimeter-oriented offense like Boston needs players who can identify chances to swing for a better shot by a teammate.

There are some flashes of intermediate playmaking as well, though nobody is going to confuse Hauser for a true initiator (or even connector) anytime soon.

It’s simple, but driving toward the middle will tell any ballhandler that the corner behind the drive is going to be open. Hauser knows this and can execute. It’s not much, but worth noting that he can grasp the simple playmaking concepts and deliver the necessary passes.

He’s also good at using the driving and passing to open up his relocation looks, a la Wardell Stephen Curry:

That’s no easy look either. A cheeky off-balanced bounce through multiple defenders is a heck of a read for Hauser, and he is rewarded with an open shot for his efforts.

The vast majority of Hauser’s offensive value comes from the shooting. Duh. But a splash of glass crashing here and a tiny pinch of decisive playmaking can go a long way to add value beyond his spacing skillset.

So, how does the defensive side of the floor hold up?

Lack of Perimeter Stopping

There are two forms of perimeter guarding: 1v1 and screen-based defending. Hauser is not particularly good at either on the whole. Boston is comfortable switching as a team, but Sam is not as comfortable as an individual.

Quicker guards or wings are going to give him problems. Matched up on slower wings, where he often starts a possession, tells a different story.

Hauser is also adept at using his size and verticality to his advantage when ceding ground on the drive, which is inevitable in his case.

If Hauser can manage to turn those clean blow-bys we saw in the first section into these kinds of possessions, it goes a long way toward translating his game to the defensive end and increasing his minutes. Deterring clean rim looks is the most you can ask of a guy with his lateral speed and vertical athleticism, or lack thereof.

The screen-based defending is a bit uglier on the whole. The lateral speed questions here cannot be overcome with size or length, and Hauser can be picked on in these actions.

Sam is a bit better when it comes to defending the perimeter as a defender playing on high pick-and-rolls, but it’s still a very mixed bag.

A lot of the issues in this second clip come from overhelping: not only does this make it an easier read for Cole Anthony, but it gives Paolo Banchero (who relentlessly wants to get downhill) a longer runway. Guys like Paolo are impossible to stop once their momentum has been built like this.

Yet there are still many other issues to work through.

Off Ball Defense

There are QUITE a lot of instances where Hauser got lost switching. I tried to distill it to the simplest examples of how his processing and attention cost his team.

If Hauser is going to be the kind of defender who needs to be hidden on lesser assignments off the ball, blowing switches is going to hurt a lot. It’s no shame to be unable to contend with primary or secondary options. But you need to control what is given to you, or else the upside is limited.

The rotational defense is a bit more positive but still yields mixed results. There is some good, to be sure:

Though Hauser is pretty good at making his presence felt around the rim, the help he offers from the nail or off the perimeter leaves much to be desired.

To put a bow on the off-ball game, Hauser could stand to be a little more active on the glass. Considering where he is usually stationed on both ends, his defensive rebounding numbers should be better than his offensive. The 41st percentile offensive rebounding is not bad, but the 34th percentile defensive rebounding needs to be better, especially when his man is not a threat for second-chance points out on the perimeter. A slight uptick in this area would make Hauser’s defense a lot more palatable.

Alas, the final question: where do we go from here?

Future Outlook

As one of the best shooters in the league, Hauser will find his way on the floor no matter what team he plays for. The dynamic ways he can get his shot going off the ball come in handy regardless of system or personnel. That kind of skill gives him a role for years to come.

It’s the everything else that gives me pause. Offering little as a driver, roller, or passer severely handicaps his offensive utility. Though he can help in the aggregate on the offensive glass, more can be done there. I have serious questions about what further skills Hauser can develop on that end. It’s also a bit of a conundrum for coaches: if he can be effective while taking 90% of his shots from deep, do I even want to give him other looks? Can we afford to go away from his primary skills?

The defense is also a cause for concern. As I said before, not being the guy who handles tough assignments is fine. Still, the missed switching and inconsistent rotational defense to go with underwhelming rebounding numbers is a tough swallow. He won’t be a star in his role on that end anytime soon. But showing positive moves toward being average would go a long way toward increasing his impact on this contending Boston squad, and future teams.

I remain bullish on Hauser’s future because of the exemplary shooting. But to graduate from a highly specialized bench piece to something more, there is a lot to work on.

The post Finding a Role: Sam Hauser appeared first on Swish Theory.

There are quite a few trailing close behind. While also a result of no single runaway team (SRS is calculated relative to all other teams), the five closest trailing the Celtics – Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans, Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers – are all within 2 points in SRS of Boston. There was a more significant difference, for instance, between last year’s Celtics who lead the league and the 2021-22 Miami Heat, or the 2020-21 regular season leading Utah Jazz compared to sixth place Denver Nuggets.

The top is as clustered as it’s been, though we have more than half of the season left for one of these teams to make their mark. The closest recent historical precedent was 2010-11, when the Dallas Mavericks overcame having the seventh worst championship odds to take the title led by Dirk Nowitzki.

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