Another advantage NFL draft analysts find with the sheer volume of picks is the ability to pick up on tendencies for certain teams and GMs. One or two NFL drafts can amass a large enough sample to begin drawing conclusions. That isn’t the case for the NBA draft, as many teams end with two or fewer selections.

My inspiration for this project comes from a series created by an Indianapolis Colts beat writer by the name of Zach Hicks, who predicts the Colts’ draft choices by observing past trends for combine measurables and stats. I adore this series (and if you happen to be a Colts/NFL Draft fan reading this, you will too) and wanted to emulate it for basketball.

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s General Manager, Sam Presti, joined the franchise in 2007. He’s the longest-tenured GM in the NBA by a huge margin, becoming lionized in drafting/rebuilding circles. We have a notable sample of Presti draft picks, which can lead us to discover some of his tendencies and preferences. 

Since joining the Seattle Supersonics in 2007, Presti drafted and kept 31 players. We’ll include Lu Dort for his significance, bringing our sample to 32. That’s not nearly large enough to draw definitive conclusions but we can begin to notice trends emerging. 

To predict how the Thunder will draft going forward, I collected measurable and statistical data for each OKC draft pick. The data was collected and analyzed from a prospect’s draft season. A career ranking may result in slight changes that could make up an entirely new project. All stats are from the NBA, Barttorvik and Basketball Reference. Some stats aren’t available for certain international/non-NCAA prospects, so we’ll do the best with what we have.

After analyzing the past 15 years of draft data, these are the factors Sam Presti seems to consider most:

Wingspan: 

Presti’s wingspan has become somewhat infamous and there’s truth behind that. In his 17 years with OKC, Presti has drafted just three players with a +2 or lower height-to-wingspan differential, those being Mitch McGary (2014), Josh Giddey and Tre Mann (2021).

The Thunder weaponize their basketball condors to wreck shop on both ends of the ball. Even after some philosophy shifts over the past four or five seasons, it’s clear how much he values length in prospects, especially guards and wings. Jalen Williams (+10), Keyontae Johnson (+8), Cason Wallace (+6) and Chet Holmgren (+6) all fit the wingspan trope.

Age:

Youth is a critical indicator of star upside and general NBA success and development in the draft and Presti knows this. Prospects who break out early are more likely to be stars and great players alike. Presti has never drafted a 22+ year-old in the top 20 picks. His oldest lottery pick is Jalen Williams (21.2) and his average lottery pick is under 20.

He’s drafted only six 22+ year-olds at all, those being McGary (pick 21, 2014), Josh Huestis (29, 2014), Aaron Wiggins (54, 2021), Devon Hall (53, 2018), Keyontae Johnson (50, 2023) and Sasha Kaun (56, 2008).

As the Thunder push for titles, Presti’s philosophy could begin to shift, leaning towards older more NBA-ready prospects as evidenced by the JDub and Johnson picks. Still, we know Presti values youth, especially early and likely will continue to draft on the younger side of teams.

Productivity:

This isn’t referring to points per game specifically, but rather productivity in other manners. Most Presti picks perform well in advanced, all-in-one metrics. Of the 21 picks with available barttorvik BPM data, all but two (Hamidou Diallo, Lu Dort) posted above a +4.0 BPM.

Aside from more general metrics, Presti prospects tend to dominate statistically in at least one area, whether that be passing, shooting, rebounding or foul drawing. There will always be exceptions, but drafting good basketball players tends to pay off in the long run.

Feel: 

Whatever nebulous term we choose to define some kind of processing, court mapping and instinctual indicators will be a challenge to quantify. Presti prospects do well in assist-to-turnover and assist rate metrics, especially the guards and wings.

This is a point of philosophy shift, as the post-2019 “Rebuild Era” shifted the premium away from raw athletic tools (Diallo, Ferguson, etc) and towards smart basketball players. The average post-2019 Presti pick has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 (but a low assist rate interestingly, dragged down by bigs and Dieng).

OKC’s basketball vision relies on smart players who make quick decisions and process the floor in real-time. It’s the backbone of the roll replace offense and their aggressive defense and Presti will align with that philosophy.

Physicality: 

Physicality best manifests in stats like free-throw rate and rebounding rate which Presti prospects tend to have. Free-throw rate projects driving, finishing and creation as well as any other indicator; Thunder picks in the sample average a strong 31 free-throw rate and guards especially draw fouls prolifically.

Thunder prospects also tend to display a baseline of rebounding ability on the defensive end, indicating verticality, size and motor. Only Terrance Ferguson (4.5%), Alex Abrines (9.1%) and Russell Westbrook (8.4%) rebounded below 10% of their team’s shots during their minutes.

Shooting: 

The Rebuild era marks another shift for Presti in a slightly greater prioritization of shooting as well as feel. Since 2020, Oklahoma City’s draft picks averaged 34% on threes compared to 25.5% before 2020. They’ll still draft inefficient shooters like Giddey (29.3%), Dieng (27.1%), and Jaylin Williams (23.9%). 

For projecting shooting growth, volume is a far more reliable indicator and Presti values this now more than ever. Even if they didn’t shoot well, all recent Presti picks shot the ball, especially for bigs/taller players. In the pre-rebuild era, Presti drafted seven players with a three-point attempt rate below 10 compared to zero post-2020.

Historically, Presti’s draft picks don’t indicate a strong valuation of scoring efficiency or usage. OKC drafts all over the place in terms of true shooting and usage, anywhere from Ferguson (16.2% usage, 47% true shooting) to James Harden (32.6% usage, 60.7% true shooting.

Many scouts regard steal and block rates as important indicators of defensive potential. That isn’t a trend in Oklahoma City’s selections, as the steal (2.2%) and block (3.1%) rates hover around average.

Based on those numbers, here’s what an average Presti draft pick’s stats and measurables look like, sorted by position: 

Guards (11): 199.3 lbs, +5.3 WS differential, 20.1 years, 7.4 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 35 free throw rate, 38.2 three-point attempt rate, 14.4% defensive rebound rate

Wings (12): 206.1 lbs, +6.1 WS differential, 20.7 years, 5.7 BPM. 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, 27.8 free throw rate, 37.2 three-point attempt rate, 15.6% defensive rebound rate

Bigs (9): 238,8 lbs, +3.9 WS differential, 20.7 years, 7.6 BPM, 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, 48.2 free throw rate, 8.0 three-point attempt rate, 23% defensive rebound rate

It’s worth averaging out Presti’s picks post-2019 as well given the notable philosophy toward higher-feel players:

“Rebuild Era” (12): 202.7 lbs, +4.8 WS differential, 20.2 years, 7.2 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 29 free throw rate, 37.5 three-point attempt rate, 20.6% defensive rebound rate

Some outliers skew these averages and it’s still not a large enough sample size to feel fully confident, but these numbers provide an interesting baseline and range for Presti’s most valued prospect traits.

Based on Presti’s past drafting tendencies, who are the Thunder most likely to draft in 2024? Currently, OKC sits at 12. Presti loves trading up and down the board, so we will discuss more prospects than those likeliest to be available at 12 and some second-rounders at the end. After analyzing the data with a weight on the factors Presti values most — wingspan, age and BPM especially — I’ve come up with my best guesses at who the Thunder will value.

This is NOT my prediction for who the Thunder will draft. Presti’s philosophies have evolved and his priorities may shift, especially regarding drafting older prospects, as OKC turns to championship contention mode. I’ll provide context for each prospect as some of them will be more or less likely to be OKC picks than the data suggests.

*THE PERFECT PRESTI PROSPECTS*

Stephon Castle, Wing/Guard, UConn

Numbers to know: +3.5 WS (6’9’), 5.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 37.9 FTr, 12% DRB, 25.9 3par

On paper, Stephon Castle is the prospect I’d wager Presti covets most. He checks every box: Castle is young, impactful on a great team, and long with great statistical indicators. Presti wings tend to shoot with more volume, but that’s the only knock you can find based on historical trends.

OKC would likely have to trade up to draft Castle, who some have projected as high as two to the Wizards. Castle’s desire to play point guard might also scare the Thunder off given their abundance of ball-handling talent in the backcourt and on the wing, so he might not grade as highly for OKC as his statistical profile suggests. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade-up for Castle if he slips a bit down the board.

Donovan Clingan, Center, UConn

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’6.5), 14.1 BPM, 20.3 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 47.8 FTr, 23.4% DRB, 2.7 3par

Castle’s college teammate thrives in almost all of the same areas as him; Clingan’s production at a young age, huge wingspan and excellent statistical indicators as a passer and athletically all speak to Presti’s preferences. He hasn’t drafted a non-shooting big since Dakari Johnson in 2015 but I’d imagine he would make an exception for Clingan.

Clingan also feels like a possible trade-up candidate for the Thunder as he’s been projected as high as number one to the Hawks. Like Castle though, pushing the chips in for Clingan to pair with Chet Holmgren long-term wouldn’t shock me. It’s not a move I would love as Holmgren is best as a five and Clingan’s spacing is a concern, but the physicality and rim protection he’d add would be immense.

Kel’el Ware, Center, Indiana

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’4.5), 8.1 BPM, 20.2 y/o, 1.0 a:to, 41.9 FTr, 26.1% DRB, 12.5 3par 

Before this exercise, Ware wasn’t a prospect I expected to rank highly for Presti’s history. I haven’t seen him linked to the Thunder at all, but it makes perfect sense on deeper inspection. Ware shares all of the same profile strengths as Clingan — wingspan, BPM, youth, feel and interior goodness. Unlike Clingan, Ware spaced the floor in college to varying degrees throughout his career.

Ware likely will be on the board at 12 and the Thunder sticking and picking him makes sense based on Presti’s history and the current roster. His shooting fits more cleanly with OKC’s five-out offense than Clingan’s while maintaining similar defensive and interior scoring upside. I love this fit and think it’s one of the most likely options at 12 that most aren’t discussing.

Ja’Kobe Walter, Guard/Wing, Baylor

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’10), 4.4 BPM, 19.8 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 48.9 FTr, 12.3% DRB, 57.2 3par

If I had to submit an official guess based on Presti’s past selections for the Thunder’s pick at 12, history says it should be Walter. Like those in this tier, he’s extremely long and young with statistical indicators aligning with the data, though his BPM would be on the lower end for Presti picks. 

Lottery is too high for Walter by my evaluation, as his lack of offensive juice outside of off-ball shooting and defensive problems make for a limited ceiling. I’m not sure the Thunder would look to add another questionable playmaker off of the bounce after the Mavericks exposed some of their perimeter creation issues, though. Presti could believe in his three-and-D skillset on the wing and pick him at 12 even if he’s the least likely of the top four fits to end up on OKC to me.

*STRONG PRESTI FITS*

Ron Holland, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’10.75), 19 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 41.7 FTr, 16.2% DRB, 21.3 3par

We won’t have BPM numbers for non-NCAA prospects which adds some uncertainty for them. Holland looks like a classic Presti wing given his youth, elite athletic and physical tools statistical indicators. His shooting and assist/turnover numbers lag a bit behind most Thunder wing selections.

For myself and many others, Holland is a top-two prospect in the class and should be the pick if he falls on the principle of valuing the best talent available. There’s a strong chance he isn’t on the board at 12 but if he is, I don’t think Presti would let his slide continue.

Tyler Smith, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 19.6 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 30.5 FTr, 15% DRB, 36.3 3par

Draft analysts don’t associate Tyler Smith with the Thunder often, but his profile cleanly fits their type. Smith is young with a long wingspan, excellent shooting numbers and solid rebounding, passing and free-throw drawing stats. Selecting Smith might be likely in a trade-down scenario, but snagging him at 12 and valuing his size and spacing potential is a possible outcome for the Thunder.

Devin Carter, Guard, Providence

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’8.75), 11.4 BPM, 22.3 y/o, 1.3 a:to 37.6 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 48.2 3par

Carter’s case to be the pick at 12 fascinates me. He’d be the oldest player Presti has ever picked in the lottery but he fits every other indicator best of all prospects in the entire draft: gargantuan wingspan, insane BPM, foul drawing, passing, shooting, you name it. 

If the rumors about Chicago’s promise are true, Carter might not be an option. One could argue his skillset overlaps some with Cason Wallace, who the Thunder spent a lottery pick on last year. But if he falls to 12, my gut feeling is that Presti would draft Carter, valuing his current skillset for a Thunder team hoping to contend for titles now.

DaRon Holmes II, Center/Forward, Dayton

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 21.9 y/o, 11.5 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 72.4 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 20.8 3par

Aside from his age — Holmes would also be the oldest Presti lottery pick by almost a year — DaRon Holmes is a Thunder big. He’s functionally long and dominated college basketball as a consensus All-American, showcasing the playmaking, handling and spacing requisite of modern bigs.

Holmes profiles closest to a PJ Washington/Aaron Gordon acolyte in this draft and he seamlessly fits OKC’s roster and philosophy on both ends. A big who thrives as a perimeter handler with some interior versatility would have changed the calculus for the Thunder in the postseason. I would not be stunned if the Thunder reached for Holmes at 12. The fit is that good, even if his age would be a trend-breaker.

*POSSIBLE PRESTI GUYS*

Tidjane Salaun, Wing/Forward, Cholet

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’2), 18.9 y/o, 0.7 a:to, 27 FTr, 15.5% DRB, 53.1 3par

If Presti dips back into the raw French wing well, Salaun will probably be the pick. He’s one of the youngest players in the whole draft with an elite wingspan and well-rounded indicators. European prospects often record lower assist numbers due to stricter assist counting than American hoops, accounting for the lower assist-to-turnover ratio.

Salaun likely wouldn’t contribute much on day one, His two-way upside is immense and he’d provide a strong contingency plan on the wings for the coming seasons if Salaun ends up as the pick. 

Yves Missi, Center, Baylor

Numbers to know: +3 WS (7’2), 20.1 y/o, 5.8 BPM, 0.3 a:to, 60.4 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 0 3par

Missi performs well in many of the main Presti philosophy points: solid wingspan, youth and BPM production. His poor shooting and playmaking numbers don’t fit with Presti’s recent center picks as he seems to prioritize more “modern” perimeter-oriented bigs. As we mentioned with Clingan, Missi makes more sense at 12 if Presti wants to move towards more “traditional bigs” to add size and rebounding in the frontcourt.

Zach Edey, Center, Purdue

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’10.75), 22.3 y/o, 15.5 BPM. 0.9 a:to. 80.9 FTr, 25.5% DRB, 0.1 3par

We can draw parallels between Edey and Missi’s alignment with Presti’s history. Edey is much older than Missi with more production and similar playmaking and floor spacing hangups. The National Player of the Year’s enormous wingspan, BPM and foul-drawing numbers will all entice Presti. His size, rebounding and interior presence are tailor-made to help OKC, though I’m skeptical he’s the pick due to his age and lack of a shooting presence.

Kyle Filipowski, Forward/Center, Duke

Numbers to know: – 0.25 WS (6’10.5), 20.6 y/o, 10.1 BPM, 1.3 a:to, 38.4 FTr, 22.6% DRB, 25.7% 3par

Sam Presti drafting a prospect with a negative wingspan would feel sacrilegious. But apart from length, Kyle Filipowski is a Presti big. He’s young, extremely productive with the requisite physicality, handling and spacing potential to play on the outside. I’m skeptical Presti goes for another short-armed prospect, though Filipowski’s fit as a perimeter threat and a physical rebounder and defender are ideal if he does make an exception.

Johnny Furphy, Wing, Kansas

Numbers to know: +0.5 WS (6’8), 19.6 y/o, 5.4 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 40.3 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 60.7 3par

Like Filipowski, Furphy slots in with recent Presti selections in every way but wingspan. If the Thunder want to add a young shooting wing with size, Furphy could be one of the better options. He’s most likely in a trade down and even then I wouldn’t bank on the Thunder to value Furphy as much as other longer, even more productive wings later in the draft where age hasn’t been as paramount for Presti.

Jared McCain, Guard, Duke

Numbers to know: +1.5 WS (6’3.5), 20.4 y/o, 7.6 BPM, 1.4 a:to, 23 FTr, 15.3% DRB, 55.4 3par

Presti drafted a shorter-armed guard in 2021 in Tre Mann who isn’t on the team three years later. McCain has youth (despite being an old freshman), BPM, assist and shooting numbers as strengths and he’d fit well as an off-ball shooting, secondary pick-and-roll guard next to Shai and Jalen Williams. But in a crowded OKC backcourt, McCain’s lack of length and physicality likely would lead the Thunder elsewhere. 

Dalton Knecht, Guard, Tennessee

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’9), 9.9 BPM. 23.2 y/o, 1,1 a:to, 35.4 FTr, 14.3% DRB, 40.6 3par

Knecht would be the third 23-year-old Presti draft pick in his Thunder tenure and the first inside the top 50 picks. That makes Knecht extremely unlikely at 12, though his wingspan meets the threshold and his statistical production for the important markers impress. I don’t expect OKC to strongly consider Knecht even if his plug-and-play offensive skillset would add juice on that end.

*UNLIKELY PRESTI FITS*

Matas Buzelis, Forward/Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +1 WS (6’10), 19.7 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 28.3 FTr, 17.1% DRB, 28.8 3par

Shorter arms, poor assist and turnover numbers and limited physicality/ strength mean Buzelis doesn’t match the Thunder’s usual type. Though Presti will draft rawer tall wings like Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski, they often have outstanding statistical indicators elsewhere. Other wing options like Salaun and Holland will probably entice Presti more than Buzelis.

Tristan Da Silva, Forward/Wing, Colorado

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’10.25), 6.2 BPM, 23.1 y/o, 1,3 a:to, 25.8 FTr, 13.7% DRB, 40.5 3par

Drafting Da Silva would depart from Presti’s typical philosophy; he’s already 23 with a mediocre wingspan and extremely poor rebounding and foul-drawing numbers for his size. Da Silva’s height, shooting and playmaking skill theoretically slot in perfectly to OKC’s offensive system and Presti may value his plug-and-play value. If he was the pick at 12 or even in a trade down, Da Silva would become a massive historical outlier.

Isaiah Collier, Point Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’4.75”), 3.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.3 a:to, 49.7 FTr, 8.7% DRB, 25.5 3par

Collier has arms on the shorter side, wasn’t incredibly productive by BPM and hits below thresholds on rebounding and three-point numbers for Presti guards. As much as I adore Collier, OKC has plenty of handling guards on the roster and others in this draft fit Presti’s tendencies. 

*THE ONE BIG ASTERISK*

Cody Williams, Wing/Forward, Colorado

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (7’1), 2.9 BPM, 19.6 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 39.7 FTr, 9.2% DRB, 21.1 3par

Looking solely at historical indicators, Cody Williams performs poorly compared to most Presti selections, especially in the lottery. His low BPM especially pops out and only his free-throw rate numbers are above the Thunder’s average. 

OKC will likely throw most of this out for obvious reasons, as keeping Jalen Williams around for as long as possible would be reason enough to draft Cody. Williams’ mid-season injury materially impacted his play, as he looked less explosive and confident after returning in January. 

If not for the injury, Williams likely fares much better in the Presti formula, especially given his huge wingspan and age. Cody is probably the most likely OKC pick at 12 and it’s as good a spot as any for him to develop physically and as a shooter.

If the Thunder trade down in the draft, here are some other prospects that fit Sam Presti’s historical type:

Dillon Jones, Guard/Wing, Weber St

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’11), 7.3 BPM, 22.7 y/o, 1.7 a:to, 45.4 FTr, 31% DRB, 23.7 3par

Jonathan Mogbo, Forward/Wing/Center, San Francisco

Numbers to know: +8 WS (7’2), 10.5 BPM. 22.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 32.2 FTr, 29.6% DRB, 0.1 3par

Isaac Jones, Forward/Center, Washington St

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’3), 6.7 BPM, 23.9 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 55.8 FTr, 19% DRB, 0.8 3par

Keshad Johnson, Wing, Arizona

Numbers to know: +7 WS (6’10.25), 7.1 BPM. 23 y/o, 1.2 a:to, 37.5 FTr, 14.8% DRB, 32.6% 3par

Bronny James, Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’7.25), -0.3 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 30.4 FTr, 15.1% DRB, 53.6 3par

Trey Alexander, Guard, Creighton

Numbers to know: +7 (6’10.5), 4.7 BPM, 21.2 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 20.8 FTr, 14.6% DRB, 35.2% 3par

The post OKC Thunder Draft Retrospective appeared first on Swish Theory.

When I evaluate a prospect’s offense, I ask myself these two questions first:

1. Will this prospect ever be a primary initiator/decision-maker?
2. If the answer to question one is no, how does he impact winning next to other primaries?

Aside from nabbing stars, locating players who contribute to winning, especially in the postseason, is what teams should seek in the draft. The vast majority of elite teams roster one (or two) players who command high usage, either as the offensive orchestrator or deadly scorer. The best players in the NBA are both.

From there, we can understand the value of drafting players with additive skills – shooting, passing and defending being the three most notable. Scouts traditionally discuss scalability, or the ability to move up and down the offensive hierarchy as needed, through the lens of three-and-D wings. 

Now more than ever, centers with expansive offensive skill sets are ubiquitous among great offenses. Going beyond the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokics of the world, the decision-making ‘hub’ big sill feels like an undervalued archetype. The value of ones like Wendell Carter Jr, Chet Holmgren, Draymond Green and Jusuf Nurkic are clear.

Centers also must add value playing next to other ball-dominant stars, no matter the position. So how can bigs, especially non-shooting bigs, add value without the basketball? 

In the two years since I first discussed modern, scalable NBA bigs, the archetype is as crucial as ever. Big men orchestrate more and more NBA offense, burning defenses with dribble handoffs, short rolls, above-the-break threes and inside-out passing. We can evaluate and project frontcourt prospects through this lens. Centers aren’t exempt from joining the off-ball revolution. 

As I wrote before: 

“Conversations about scalability must extend beyond sharp, spacing wings. They must include these traditional-sized big men who may not be spot-up artists, but who maximize offensive harmony with flowing offense from the mid and high post.”

Maintaining a scoring threat is paramount to commanding defensive attention even for connective bigs, even more so than I realized when I wrote the first part in 2022. Many of the bigs in this archetype who do not become long-term NBA rotation staples (Trevion Williams, Jaylin Williams, etc) can’t punish defenses as a shooter or a play finisher.

Still, I see five main areas modern off-ball bigs should excel:

Advantage extender

I previously titled this category ‘short roll,’ though I think advantage extender better captures this skill. Can you punish a defense at a numbers disadvantage? Bigs who amplify their teammates’ pull-up shooting gravity and playmaking while thriving in the scramble drill match perfectly with stars. Rather than commanding possessions, they increase the odds of their advantage creation leading to points.

A key for this skill: can you command defensive attention as a scoring threat? If a playoff defense doesn’t respect a player’s scoring, they can neutralize their playmaking skill.

DHO Keep/Flow

Potent offenses seek to attain north-south movement, hoping to end as many possessions possible at the bucket, East-west flow opens up creases to run through, commandeered by bigs screening, handing off and creating with their handles. Can you compromise a fooled defense? Can coaches rely on you to initiate offense?

Close quarters finishing

Converting advantages created by stars is the easiest, most classic path to scaling down. In the case of centers, that often means finishing high-value shots at the cup and drawing fouls. Can you finish from a variety of angles with either hand? Do you have the catch radius to snare bad passes?

Force that closeout!

Shooting is a cherry on top for off-ball bigs, assuming they are true center-sized (shooting needed and height are inversely related). Bigs can compensate with their height and size, but threatening a defense from the outside and forcing them to pay attention is a plus.

Can you hit shots from different spots and different platforms? Can you force and attack a bad closeout? What about a good one?

Transition

Pushing the break after a block or rebound eliminates the need to pass to the PG, speeding up transition opportunities. Can you threaten the defense with speed as a transition attacker? Maybe more importantly, can you flow into actions and make decisions to set up teammates? 

With that out of the way, let’s discuss how the bigs of the 2024 draft class fare.

Alex Sarr: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Force that closeout!*, Transition

From his single NBL season, Sarr grew as a functional dribbler and playmaker out of the short roll. He’s a far more confident decision-maker on the catch, punishing defenses at a numbers disadvantage with quick kicks and laydowns. Sarr doesn’t need to shoot the lights out to excel on offense, though his low volume especially is troubling.

Freakish coordination and movement skill turn Sarr’s ceiling into an endless staircase. At the moment, Sarr already burns defenders down the court after a defensive stop and wins in isolation against pro bigs. Sarr is building modern NBA offense habits, dribbling into dribble handoffs and screens as a reverse initiator.

Dribbling centers unlock offensive options and Sarr’s mobility plus the counters and creativity he already has are auspicious signs. He might not finish with strong efficiency due to his limited vertical pop, but his potential to initiate modern NBA-style actions only adds to his best-in-class upside. 

Donovan Clingan: Close-quarters finishing

Donovan Clingan’s main ways to pressure defense without the ball include screening and rolling. But without the ball, Clingan fades into the background on offense. He’s unfortunately not a great post scorer as his stiffness limits his angle carving ability. There’s no semblance of a jumper there either.

Thankfully for Clingan, his defense is phenomenal. That’s a topic for another day. We’ve seen plenty of defensive anchors succeed with limited offensive games like Gobert, Capela, Kessler etc. Clingan’s play finishing and height should always keep him somewhat afloat offensively.

Yves Missi: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition*

Though Yves Missi likely is closer to his 6’10 high school measurement, he plays well above his height with vertical pop and length. Catch radius is critical for lob targets and rim runners, which will be Missi’s main path to offensive value. 

Missi skies above the rim, catching passes well outside his frame for lobs and soft finishes. He’s efficient around the rim — Missi is one of 21 college basketball players this year with 50 or more dunks shooting over 70% at the rim and the only freshman to do it.

Processing speed will be a major swing skill for Missi, especially given his advanced ball-handling flashes, whipping out counters to beat bigs to the bucket and set into post position. If the feel progresses, the sky is the limit for Missi.

Daron Holmes: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!, Transition

The case of Daron Holmes’ draft stock is mysterious. According to the Rookie Scale consensus board, Holmes sits at 31 in the eyes of the mainstream with his spot on many prominent mocks even lower. I can’t figure out why for the life of me, especially given his snug fit in the modern game.

Offenses operate through big men more than ever, planting them as hubs for off-ball motion and simple advantage creation. And Holmes, a spacing big with a unique handle, should pique the interest of offensive coordinators. Unlike most lean perimeter-oriented bigs, Holmes possesses traditional big skills — screening, sealing, pick-and-roll defense, finishing — developing those before his metamorphosis.

Aside from spacing the floor and finishing at the rim, Holmes’ varied handle should allow him to function as a genuine hub. How many bigs in college run invert pick and roll as the ball-handler and move downhill to finish, shoot or pass?

Holmes isn’t the smoothest processor which could limit his ceiling as a playmaker. Regardless of any high-end feel limitations, the dribbling, strength and shooting could beget Naz Reid-esque offensive impact.

Kyle Filipowski: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!*, Transition

In theory, Filipowski could easily hit all five tools of scalability. It will depend on the degree of his shooting and finishing — can Filipowski reliably force closeouts and finish through traffic? His volume and efficiency improved from deep this past season though the percentages across his career aren’t stellar. Filpowski is a good, not great finisher among centers (58.6% HC at the rim) and his limited vertical pop and stiffness could trouble him against NBA length.

If he draws defenses as a scoring threat, his passing and ball-handling are among the best in the class. He’s a passing virtuoso, firing assists from the post, on the short roll, in transition and as a primary ballhandler. Few players with Flip’s physicality and strength handle and pass how he can. His potential offensive versatility is massive.

Kel’el Ware: Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!

Shooting is the key to unlocking Ware’s scalability. Like a few other bigs on this list, he’s best with the ball in his hands, facing up and swiveling into shots from the post. He’s a springy vertical athlete, rendering him a seamless pairing with great passer (something he hasn’t had in college).

Ware’s three-point volume dipped, though he has a history of deep-range shooting going back to his days at Oregon and in high school. Threatening defenses as a spacer will be all the off-ball value he needs if Ware hits a high defensive outcome.

Zach Edey: Close-quarters finishing

I’m concerned about Zach Edey’s ability to scale down and impact winning without the ball in his hands. Edey’s touch is undeniable and paired with his gargantuan status, he should be a good finisher at the next level. But when passes don’t feed Edey post touches, how does he contribute in a meaningful way?

Historically, high-usage college players who aren’t great passers tend to fail. Take this Barttorvik query of college players with +30% usage and -15% assist rate:

It’s a mixed group, with one mega-star and a few busts. Aside from the Boogie outlier, the ones who stuck in the league shot the ball and spaced the floor (McDermott, Warren). How will Zach Edey share the floor with ball-dominant players? If he improves his processing speed, Edey could connect teammates and extend plays rather than finish them. If not, he feels like a microwave scorer sixth man at his ceiling.

Oso Ighodaro: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow

Does unathletic Brandon Clarke pique your interest? That’s the question we’re pondering about Oso Ighodaro, In theory, his connective skills are abundant — Oso’s floater game is advanced (54.5% on runners) and he’s a capable passer to cutters from a handoff. There’s a recipe for a useful release valve, especially with a pull-up shooting threat.

Ighodaro struggles to elevate through contact and his finishing in the restricted area. He doesn’t space the floor. If Ighodaro can’t threaten defenses as a scorer, he likely won’t stick. But if the floater hints at shooting development, Ighodaro could find a role as a valuable rotation player, lubricating his team’s offensive flow.

Jonathan Mogbo: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition

Jonathan Mogbo is a dunk machine. Only two players in the country dunked more than Mogbo, whose NBA intrigue comes largely from his bounce and explosion. With a capable handle, Mogbo flashed pro vision and some high-post chops. Gen-Z Kenneth Faried juices up offenses with great passers.

Watching Mogbo in person further illuminated his stature. Despite being fairly short at 6’7, Mogbo is a brick wall with springs in his shoes. Mogbo snags balls out of the air like a wide receiver. He operated primarily from the post, so working to extend advantages will help him find a home in an NBA rotation. There’s some wacko creator upside if Mogbo truly harnesses his handle to maximize his athletic gifts, expanding his possible utility to on and off the ball.

The post Defining Scalable Bigs appeared first on Swish Theory.

Ahmed: Isaiah Crawford

Perhaps no draft class of the past decade has taken shape later in its cycle than 2024, and in a class defined by uncertainty it only makes sense for some of its prospects to take circuitous routes to the NBA. There may not be a player in the class who has taken a more winding road into the league than 6’6” fifth-year senior wing Isaiah Crawford. Typically there is some combination of three factors which result in a prospect exhausting their collegiate eligibility prior to joining the professional ranks. Maybe the player joined a veteran laden, high achieving team, where minutes crucial to their development are difficult to come by. The prospect in question may have been from a less heralded school where playing lower competition required a lengthier resume of production to be seriously considered a NBA caliber player. Or lastly, injuries prevent them from playing to the point where development is disrupted and they are forced to return to school.

In Crawford’s case the latter two factors are primarily responsible for his protracted NCAA career. Having suffered devastating ACL injuries in two consecutive seasons (his true sophomore and junior years), and playing the entirety of his career in Conference USA, which only recently gained a modicum of respect from FAU’s Final Four appearance this past season. While Crawford’s injury history may have him omitted from a few teams’ draft boards, the consistent production in spite of both practice and game time lost to recovery is eye-catching.

Crawford’s appeal is his protean skillset on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Crawford has spent most of the season as the primary creator in the half-court, ranking 11th in the country in isolations as a percentage of his teams possessions. However, in past years Crawford has been cast in a more of a complementary role, where he spaced the floor and gained comfort attacking closeouts as his long-range shooting became a more consistent threat (Crawford is currently 40% from 3 on 275 attempts in his career). Crawford was even deployed as a small-ball center this past year when his mobility was compromised by the recency of his knee injury.

In all these roles Crawford has not only produced, but thrived, when forced to adapt. This display of role flexibility bodes well for Crawford’s value in the league, where non-star wings are increasingly defined by their ability to meld around whatever star talent resides on their roster. Crawford will most likely not be asked to shoulder a large creation burden, but his ability to capitalize on mismatches created and attack tilted defenses, in tandem with the stellar shooting indicators (44% on 70 off-the-dribble midrange jumpers, 39.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2024), has been the recipe for numerous wings who arrived with little fanfare to carve out meaningful roles.

For as enticing as Crawford’s offense is, defense could very well be his ticket to making a NBA roster. Similar to the offense, Crawford has played a variety of roles defensively and consistently produced wherever he has been deployed, Crawford has posted stellar steal and block rates over his career (3.1% and 3.6% respectively) while simultaneously limiting fouling (only 3.3 fouls/40). The paltry foul rate to Crawford’s defensive impact numbers underscore his quick processing ability on this end of the floor. Crawford isn’t one to blindly gamble on the defensive end, instead opting for calculated risks where he utilizes the entirety of his massive wingspan to alter shots at the rim and encroach on ballhandler’s live dribbles as they attempt to create space. Despite being 6’6” I fully believe Crawford can function as a weak-side rim protector, aided by a 7’0” wingspan, and has the range necessary to complement a deep-drop big. 

All in all it is rare to find wings with as well-rounded a skillset as Crawford, and with the premium placed on the position around the league, it is my belief Crawford’s skillset warrants first round draft consideration despite the risk which comes with such a disconcerting injury history.

Avinash: DaRon Holmes II

DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.

Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.

Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.

There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.

I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.

However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.

I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.

It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends. 

Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.

I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.

Roshan: Jaylon Tyson

The NBA has had a massive talent explosion in the last couple of years, where players with size are coming in more skilled than ever. One of the reasons is the proliferation of wings or bigs that can dribble, pass and shoot. In a class where this player is more of a rarity, Jaylon Tyson has a case for being underrated.

Jaylon Tyson is a 6’7” junior tasked with running the primary ballhandling duties for the California Golden Bears, lighting the Pac-12 up with impressive shotmaking, crafty ball-handling, and reactive passing. In 27 games, 35% of his offensive possessions come from being the pick-and-roll ballhandler where he’s been slicing up defenses with his good first step and leveraging his touch from all three levels of the floor. 

He’s been shooting 59% at the rim on 188 attempts (70% unassisted), 42% on 108 midrange attempts (93% unassisted), and 36% on three-point attempts (48% unassisted). If you still don’t believe he has touch, he’s also shooting 77% from the charity stripe for his career (177 attempts), 43% on floaters and hooks this year, and 45% on off-the-dribble jumpers inside the arc this year. Tyson can get to these shots in a lot of creative ways where he’s able to use change of direction, deceleration, and different stride lengths to freeze defenders or cause them to flip their hips. He’s then able to use quickness in short spaces to create space and hunt a shot.

Tyson’s handle is the vehicle for all of his crucial skills on the offensive end, as he has excellent ball control. This enables him to pick the ball up at gather points where primary and help defenders can not dig at it effectively, further lending itself to live dribble passes. 

His passing volume mostly contains single-level reads like finding the roller out of pick-and-roll or making connective passes to the next rotational player, but where he shines is how quickly he’s processing these decisions, often locating the help defense. Sometimes the speed of his deliveries can be improved but I can see a pathway to growth in this area because he has manipulated defenses at times with no-look passes. With improved hand strength, he could potentially do this with more volume off of a live dribble.

Tyson is definitely an NBA athlete, dunking 15 times in the halfcourt (3 of which came off of his drives to the rim) with good load time off of two feet. There isn’t a wingspan that I could find but I would say it ranges somewhere between +3 and +5 inches compared to his height. On the defensive end, this length and explosion allow him to stifle smaller ball-handlers. His lateral movement allows him to stay with ball handlers and then hound them with his reach, empowering his ability to create events which can be seen in his 1.7 block percentage and 2.0 steal percentage. 

His problem on the defensive end is screen navigation, where he can get caught across screens and has to recover back into the play. Most of this is him not doing his work early with technique and getting skinny, specifically taking larger lateral strides before the opposing big can get positioned with his screen. Currently, he can recover into plays using his burst and length but this will be tougher to do in the NBA with the amount of ground that has to be covered. 

I believe this issue is further amplified due to his usage on the offensive end (30% usage) which will persist less in the NBA in a scaled-down role. In the NBA, Tyson will have the chance to play off of better advantage creators, where he can capitalize on tilted defenses off-the-catch. Having to create fewer possessions at the next level, there should be an uptick in three-point efficiency, similar to his sophomore season at Texas Tech where more of his threes were assisted as he shot 40% on 107 attempts. To get even more granular, he shot 43% on catch-and-shoot shots his sophomore year. With a reduced offensive load, it will let him expend more on the defensive end and do his work early with technique.

The skills and athletic traits he has as a primary should translate well to an off-ball role in increased NBA spacing, using burst and explosion to capitalize on advantages, and incorporating his touch and creative handle to create counters when the defense recovers. 

These tantalizing skills at prototypical wing size should give the team that drafts Tyson a dynamic scoring wing with the potential to funnel ballhandlers as a defender in the NBA. That sounds like the description of a player who could end up being a starting-caliber player and will be 21.5 years old on draft night; yet, he remains outside of the top 20 on most boards and mocks throughout mainstream media. In my opinion, investing heavily in a player of that caliber is usually justified, particularly in a draft class where there’s a significant shortage of this player type.

Matt: Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo is one of the more unique development cases of the 21st century. Not recruited out of high school as a 6’4’’ guard, he is now 6’9’’ and a big/forward. He started at Independence Community College, transferred to junior college Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, transferred again to low-major Missouri State, and then a third time to the mid-major San Francisco. He has guided himself up the development curve, step-by-step.

And it seems to have worked. Jonathan Mogbo is not just playing well at this higher competition level, but dominating. His 10.5 Box Plus-Minus is #13 in the country. As you might guess from the growth spurt, Mogbo mixes in guard skills with that of a big. That has provided flexibility of value to San Francisco’s roster (+20 net rating when on compared to +2 when off) that would continue with another leap in competition.

Jonathan Mogbo can pass – really pass – the fulcrum of the Dons’ offense. They often run Delay with Mogbo the trigger point, providing endless handoffs and hitting cutters or shooters in stride. He assists on one of every four made buckets by his teammates, in the top 10 for assist rate among NCAA bigs.

But what really makes Mogbo stand out is his ability as a roller or cutter. Mogbo is a fantastic leaper, quick off the ground and with ridiculous hang time, coupled with an above 7-foot wingspan and large hands. His catch radius is phenomenal, but as much as that, his footwork stands out. Mogbo is capable of dropping into a roll or starting his cut from an oblique angle while simultaneously chopping his feet, preparing for any pass regardless of its accuracy. It’s through this talent that he is barely second to Zach Edey in number of dunks this season, with a shocking three per game. Not bad for a former point guard.

The limitation is the outside shooting, as Mogbo has only attempted 38 threes over his four college seasons and at a 31% make rate, but is still shooting a solid 69% from the line and 32% in midrange. That’s enough to convince me there’s some chance of Mogbo succeeding as a low-end catch and shoot three point threat. But even if not, his handle stands out as strong for a big, capable of making moves off the dribble (but not too many) to then leverage his strength to make a path to the rim where he shoots 75% (and nearly half of his rim makes self-created). He is mostly dominant inside, but there are sparks of upside outside of the restricted area. The feel of a guard is there.

Mogbo is excellent on defense, too, and also due to his guard-like agility and opportunism. He gets a steal on 3.3% of opponent possession and a block just as often, only one of nine starters in the NCAA to do so (see: Isaiah Crawford later on). His long wingspan is weaponized by lightning fast reaction time, closing off passing lanes when least expected. His mobility combined with strength allows him to defend on the perimeter and inside alike. One small slight is he can take a beat to find his positioning on the court, a significant concern for picking up NBA schemes (especially ability to play drop as sole big). This, however, is heavily mediated by his quick recovery time and aforementioned physical tools to keep him in a play. When he’s near, he’s a threat. 

Jonathan Mogbo provides a bevy of skills no one else in the 2024 draft class has in this combination. Despite being a senior, Mogbo’s adaptability to increasing competition in the middle of a growth spurt suggests continued room for improvement. With deadly weapons in the form of interior athleticism and big-man ball skills, Mogbo is a tough matchup regardless of competition. That’s why I believe he deserves to go in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA draft. Instead, he is absent from all major media mocks/boards entirely.

Josh: David Jones

Through his four seasons in college basketball, David Jones has progressively developed into one of the best wings in the country. There were flashes of future stardom in his first two years at DePaul, with him averaging 14.5 points per game as a sophomore for the Blue Demons. Jones then transferred up to St. Johns, where his numbers remained very similar to his sophomore year at DePaul. After coach Rick Pitino accepted the head coaching position at St. John’s, Jones decided to transfer up again to Memphis, where he is now on All-American watchlists while averaging a career high 21.7 points per game on 60.7% true shooting percentage.

With the Tigers, David Jones’ rate of spot-up possessions has risen substantially, and so has his efficiency in this area. Jones is currently averaging a whopping 1.24 points per possession on spot-up looks, and he is at 1.21 points per possession on spot-up drives. He is currently at 1.35 points per possession on 40 right drives and 1.06 points per possession on 35 left drives. Jones’ burst from a standstill is quite impressive, as he is able to beat closeout defenders with ease. His jab and go often leaves defenders in the dust, as the threat of his downhill speed leads to defenders often biting on his initial move. When he jabs left and goes right, he is often able to get to his pull-up, where he is able to align his shoulder with the rim to knock down the shot. He also has an incredibly pronounced pump fake, leading to many fly-bys from unsuspecting defenders. 

When Jones beats his initial defender, he is adept at weaving his way through help using a variety of different stride types. There are many possessions where he takes an elongated last step towards the rim to either get by one help defender or to split two, and these steps often open up easy finishes at the basket. While he is at the basket, Jones flashes exceptional body control, as he is able to consistently absorb contact and finish through it despite the frequent difficulty of these attempts. He pairs this body control with his explosive one foot leaping, as he is able to generate tons of vertical pop and hangtime to throw down highlight dunks if given a runway. Half court finishing will be a potential swing skill for Jones, as he is currently hovering at 51% at the rim in the halfcourt. I am a firm believer in this mark improving over time, as he consistently showcases great touch around the rim and always displays the aforementioned elite body control. 

Stepping back to his spot-up proficiency, Jones is currently shooting a blistering 47% on 79 total spot-up 3s putting him at 1.41 points per possession on these shots. Among every single player in D1 basketball, David Jones is currently scoring the fifth most points per game on spot-up possessions in the entire country despite only being 46th in total spot-up possessions. Jones has shown the ability to hit shots off of a variety of footwork patterns, movements, and is just as accurate on off-dribble jumpers. Shooting progression is almost never linear, and Jones’ development over the last couple years has been magnificent. Between his sophomore and junior seasons, Jones jumped from 69% on free throws to a strong 79%, and he currently hovers at 80% this year on nearly three times the volume. His jump as a three point shooter really kicked in this year, as he has gone from 29% as a junior to 39% as a senior. Jones has pristine mechanics on his jumper, and he is excellent at rotating his body in air to align his shot with the rim. This is part of what makes him so deadly as a pull-up shooter, as he is comfortable shooting off of a variety of dribble patterns. Jones has also showcased comfort in shooting from NBA range and even beyond, and he can convert on these deep looks both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders have to stay honest on his drive, so any type of walk down will typically give Jones either a driving lane or enough daylight to pull-up from 3.

Another potential swing skill for Jones will be his playmaking, more specifically limiting turnovers. I personally believe that Jones is a significantly better playmaker than his current numbers would indicate, as he has shown the ability to make high level reads off of drives. Jones typically avoids telegraphing his passes, as his eye fakes and general passing deception periodically appear on tape. These positive playmaking indicators along with his processing of help defenders on drives leads me to believe in his feel for the game and processing speed, which bodes very well for his playmaking progression in the future. The main inconsistency in his playmaking has been his passing accuracy, however I think most of this is due to the difficulty of some of the reads he makes. In a scaled down role in the NBA, Jones will have the opportunity to make first and second layer reads off of drives, and I believe that he is more than capable of making nearly every pass he would be tasked with executing at this level. 

Defensively, Jones uses his elite quickness and strong instincts to jump passing lanes very frequently. His steal rate of 3.7 ranks 30th in the country among players playing at least 70% of their team’s minutes, and his ability to create deflections and transition offense opportunities absolutely pops on tape. Jones is a bit of a gambler on defense, as he looks to jump these passes very frequently. However, when Jones is out of position due to a missed jump, he is still able to swiftly get back into the play due to his change of direction capabilities. When Jones focuses on sitting down and walling off drives, he is excellent at mirroring opponents’ movements and cutting off any lanes to the basket. Jones’ body control once again shows up when he is forced to navigate screens, as he is able to absorb the contact of the screen and quickly get over them to get back into the play. Jones’ short area quickness makes him an excellent closeout defender, as he is able to execute x-outs and recover out to perimeter players much quicker than the average wing player. Finally, Jones is an excellent rebounder for a wing, as he crashes the glass to grab 2.4 offensive rebounds and 5.2 defensive rebounds per game.

Oftentimes wings with similar skill sets to Jones come in as below average defenders and in turn struggle to stick in the league despite their offensive tools. However, Jones combines his strong offensive tools with great defensive instincts and a solid feel for the game. The foundation that Jones has cannot be overlooked, and the sheer amount of translatable traits that he provides has led to me believing that he deserves to be in first round talks.  

AJ – Riley Minix

A 5th-year transfer from NAIA school Southeastern, Riley Minix has continued his dominance in his first season at the D1 level. He leads Morehead State comfortably in points, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and combined steals + blocks a game. It’s worth noting that while he’s playing at a mid-major school he’s not just padding stats on a bad team – Morehead State is currently in the 1st place in the OVC and ranks top 40 nationally (out of 362 schools) in both offensive and defensive rating with Minix leading the way on both ends. 

While Minix’s game is built around overall versatility, his primary standout skill right now is inside the arc scoring. At 6’7” with an extremely strong frame he’s one of the most dominant 2pt scorers in college basketball this season, shooting 64.8% on all twos thanks to a staggering combination of efficiency at the rim (77%, 19 dunks in 27 games) and from mid-range (50%). His ability to shoot it from three is a little more of a question as he’s shooting a fairly mediocre 33% from beyond the arc this year, but there’s other indicators that point to him being a better shooter than that. He’s shooting nearly 85% from the FT line this year, takes a solid volume of 3’s at 8.1 3PA/100 possessions, and shot 40.8% from 3pt at the NAIA level on over 550+ attempts. When you factor in this additional context, he definitely has a stronger shooting projection than this year’s raw 3pt% suggests. 

Minix is also capable of affecting a game in several different ways. His strength and size make him a high level rebounder for a forward, and he’s currently in the midst of a 9-game streak with double digits rebounds. He’s also the leader of one of the better defenses in college basketball, with Morehead State’s defense improving 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Minix is on the floor compared to off. He’s not the quickest or fastest player, but knows where to be and his combination of strength and good hands let him be effective when he is in the right position. He’s also capable as a passer, not a high level facilitator by any means but knows how to keep the ball moving and capitalize on the extra attention he gets from defenses. 

While he’s done just about everything at a high level for Morehead State, Minix still has some question marks on both ends. For as good of a scorer around the rim as he’s been this year, a lot of that production comes in ways (rim rolls, post seals, putbacks, etc.) that will be a lot harder to replicate consistently at the next level when you’re 6’7” with solid-not-great athletic tools for NBA standards. Minix will also have to deal with role translation on the defensive end as well, as playing the forward position defensively in the NBA requires a completely different skillset than playing it at the mid-major level. With his burly frame being much more equipped to defend from a set position using strength than to try to stick with guys through screens/traffic on the move, this could be a challenge for him. 

Overall, even with questions around competition level, agility, and role/skillset translation, it’s hard not to see the intrigue with Riley Minix. He checks multiple boxes we look for in NBA role players, possessing good positional size and the ability to score effectively from multiple spots on the floor while still being able to impact the game in non-scoring areas. It will no doubt be a tough jump for Minix to go from NAIA to Mid-Major CBB to NBA in a short span, but his track record of producing at a high level everywhere he goes will give him a chance to stick at any level.

The post Roundtable: 2024 NBA Draft Sleepers appeared first on Swish Theory.

A second-year player of the Dayton Flyers out of Florida, DaRon Holmes has developed into one of the more intriguing big men in the 2023 Draft Class. In his first year, he quickly rose to become Dayton’s best overall player. In his second year, his usage skyrocketed from 19 percent to 27 percent but there wasn’t much of a drop in efficiency. The Flyers had injuries throughout the year and went through a period of the season without a recognized point guard, but Holmes managed to thrive as a post-hub and inside offensive threat despite a tough situation.

Holmes’ defense is potentially what will set him apart at the next level. The Flyers were a highly athletic team this year and Holmes as the anchor helped a ton due to his positioning, foot speed and overall feel for the game as a defender. He has legitimate coverage versatility and at times Dayton was creative with their coverages.

Offensive Game

Holmes was the number one option for the Flyers. Offensively, he ranked in the 91st percentile in the half-court. Most of this was fuelled by his threat as a roll-man and as a post-up threat. He ranked in the 77th percentile in efficiency on post-ups. As the year progressed, Anthony Grant began to run a five-out offense, pushing for empty side actions and low post position. Holmes is a powerful interior finisher who was in the 86th percentile for overall efficiency at the rim. He’s comfortable going either side during his post-ups and has flashed some nice moves going to his left. This was a key development because teams began to try and take away his right-hand side. He showed enough versatility to be able to punish this extreme coverage.

Holmes has played in a diverse 5-out scheme so he has the familiarity of getting his touches without having things spoon-fed or force-fed to him, a very intelligent schematic player. He’s an efficient roll man who thrives against traps, as he displays good body control to ensure the opposition’s low-man doesn’t draw a charge. This links back to his versatile finishing package. Overall a very reliable roll-man with good timing and good screen-setting.

A weakness of Holmes has been assertiveness at times. He would sometimes catch the ball too far away from an advantageous position, especially on the sideline and low block. This became a larger issue because he was not particularly efficient on touch shots. He generally performed better the closer he was to the rim. This will be a key area of development for his rookie season if teams want to give him a more diverse offensive game. However, his ability to get to the rim from the short-mid range area is generally very good. He may eventually have some shooting potential down the line but his play finishing and off-ball movement is the key selling point early in his career.

Holmes’ passing is also a skill that should translate better to the next level with more spacing and off-ball activity in NBA Offensive schemes. He sees the floor well and the main area he will add value in this sense at the pro-level is with short-roll playmaking and passing out of double teams. The latter is extremely enticing if an NBA team views him as a switch punisher and a bailout option at the dunker spot.

Defense

Holmes projects to be an extremely versatile defender who opens up a playbook. Dayton’s athleticism meant they switched with regularity, and Holmes definitely has the potential to do that himself. His interior defense is excellent, his footwork and angles meaning he’s very good in ICE Coverage. This also opens up the possibility for him to be a hedge big with some regularity. Wherever Holmes has played for Dayton, he’s been a hugely impactful defender.

Bread and butter in the NBA is pick-and-roll defense, and Holmes should thrive here. He’s mobile and Anthony Grant has exposed him to pretty much every type of coverage in the book. I’d say his best coverages are switches on middle pick-and-rolls and ICE defense. As a switch big he’s been very effective at the collegiate level, though he will of course be tested further by NBA level ball handlers. His agility and movement skills are the real swing factor for how well he does in such a scenario.

Holmes’ timing is impeccable on blocks, especially in ICE and drop defense. He uses his wingspan well and is able to commit to blocks without having to step too far towards the ball handler which reduces the possibility of him getting into foul trouble. He also rotates extremely well and is generally in the right place at the right time.

As a Hedge Big, Holmes is decisive and that agility shows up in his ability to quickly change direction after he has deterred the ball handler from turning the corner.

Overall, I expect Holmes to be a good contributor to an NBA team in his early years. He’s extremely well-coached and ready for whatever scheme he lands in. An ideal spot would be a 5-out offense with him given opportunities to flash his playmaking in delay or motion strong style sets. Defensively his scheme versatility will surprise whatever he team he lands with. I like San Antonio, Portland and Miami as landing spots. The biggest tests and swing factors for me are how he handles physicality, and whether his left-sided counters work against better defense in the post. But he has the playmaking and offensive feel to survive at the next level regardless.

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