The draft is one of three paths to building a team, and arguably the most important for teams in smaller markets deemed less attractive to free agents and disgruntled stars who may demand trades, but only if they hand-pick their next team. This is due to the team-controlled 7-years and the value of finding impact players on rookie deals during this upcoming salary crunch around the league.

My Scouting Process is simple: Film, Data, Communication.

Watch as much tape as you can on as many prospects as you can, go to as many games in person that you can, evaluate as much relevant data on these prospects’ basketball player development journey from youth to pro as you can, look for the winning traits that translate to winning basketball at every level, like defensive instincts for forcing turnovers, quick processing decision-making feel on and off the ball, offensive rebounding, dribble, pass, shoot feel for the game, developable ball skills relative to height/position like shooting, handle, passing, and the scoring versatility, creator upside, compared to play-finishing skill-set each player possesses, which helps outline all the potential roles that player could fill.

Some skills like handle, 3pt shooting versatility, defensive versatility can help players reach higher impact than expected, as they each create advantages that make it easier to do other things; the handle creates opportunities to score and pass, the 3pt shot drags defenses out of the paint with gravity, and the defensive malleability allows one to understand and execute different defensive schemes in different roles guarding different positions, sometimes all in one possession.

Quick effective team-first decision-making may be the most important skill of all separating players at this level of athletic greatness; the mind may be the most powerful muscle separating the average rotation player and the winning players.

General big boards help build a consensus view of how this class is built via a list of the best players available. Every team, however, has their own big board filled out differently. While this consensus list is helpful to target value at different slots in the draft, a more useful tool could be filling out a big board based on a specific team, where team-centric needs, roles, situations are addressed more directly.

From there, learning from other scouts, hearing their points of view on their findings, understanding others’ perspectives through their lens, helps any evaluator cover up blind spots and round out the scouting perspective, to help see the glass half full on prospects who you may have undervalued at first.

The 2025 NBA Swish Theory Draft Guide is a helpful place to start for understanding how great draft minds view this class via ranking the Top-59 on a general big board, with filters available to target the talent and player archetypes your team needs most.

As far as my Draft Process, here are my goals for ranking any big board:

First, I’m looking for potential Superstars, guys who can be legitimate franchise cornerstones for a decade anchoring the team to 50 wins without any help.

Second, I’m targeting Offensive Engines and Defensive Cornerstones; offensive players whose mere existence creates a reliable option to run team offense as a scorer and distributor on a night-to-night basis and defensive players with outlier DPOY potential. Scoring creators who consistently create good offense for their team through reliable decision making and star-stopping defenders who are so elite, smart, versatile that they actually slow down opposing stars.

Third, I’m hunting for All-Star/All-Defense level talent, scorers and stoppers who project to potentially become Top-30 offensive players or Top-10 defensive players in the league one day, who will likely be High End Starters on championship teams.

Fourth, I’m searching for High End Starters, players who have a realistic path to impact the game at a higher rate than the average rotation player, who have likely floors as fringe 5th starters, 6th man, role players on winning teams. These are likely “good basketball” players who can bring two-way (scoring and defensive) versatility.

Fifth, I’m interested in finding Role Players whose floor is fighting for rotation spots, those who have elite skills in one role on both ends like rim-rolling and rim-protecting, or those who can hold their own on both ends of the floor with dribble-pass-shoot and switchable defensive skills, like defensive connectors who can hit the open three and make the smart pass.

Lastly, I’m looking into Potential Pros, players who have NBA length, athleticism, body strength, or outlier skill advantages like quick first step burst, playmaking vision, decision making feel, 3pt shooting, to take a swing late on unique talents.

Orlando needed shooting.

Arguably, the team needed pull-up 3pt shooting most, someone who can draw two out to the perimeter to create space for others, and ideally also possesses reliable point guard duties; either from a guard, a wing, a center, someone who can run the show when Paolo and Franz aren’t taking the lead. Someone who can set those two big wing stars and depth of play-finishers up for off-ball opportunities, cuts, rim-rolls, closeout-attacks, instead of asking them to create from scratch every time down.

Enter Desmond Bane.

Orlando addressed its biggest need (pull-up shooting), its secondary needs (C&S shooting, connective playmaking, halfcourt initiating), AND didn’t have to sacrifice the team identity (defense) to do it. The Magic somehow landed the ultimate complementary third star to its young core without taking a step back in the short term to do so.

So, what else does this Magic roster need to continually search for perfect floor balance lineups and variety of depth options?

As Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner battle it out in the NBA Finals, another apparent team need could be a reliable two-way starting center, ideally a unicorn 3&D tough shot making big man, who don’t exactly grow on trees.

Take Porzingis as an example, sliding right in next to Boston’s big wing stars, cleanly transitioning from an All-Star post-up extraordinaire with the Wizards to a glorified 3&D role with postup mismatch opportunities on a much more crowded Boston team.

Launching an offensive attack with that level of overqualified talent in a role where less is needed allows the player to maximize their winning impact; maintain energy for both ends of the floor; prepare, know, and thrive in their predetermined role.

Otherwise, endlessly hunting defensive connectors seems to be this Magic team’s priority, searching for two-way versatility, quick processing team-first decision makers, players with few holes who can dribble-pass-shoot and switch on defense.

Now that Orlando has addressed its primary shooting/scorer/playmaking concern, the question remains: what finishing touches does this roster need to start contending?

PG: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Cory Joseph
SG: Desmond Bane, Gary Harris, Jett Howard
SF: Franz Wagner, Tristan Da Silva, Caleb Houstan
PF: Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac
C: Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, Mo Wagner

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Offensive Scoring Creator vs Play-Finishers/Connectors


When reviewing the Cerebro Sports data on 2025 NBA Draft Prospects (only including NCAA), an interesting result pops up when playing around with the numbers.

If I wanted to find two-way versatility, I could look for players who can fill roles as a defensive playmaker/offensive connector/3pt shooter/playfinisher, aka someone who brings plus defense, makes team-first passes, hits open 3pt shots, rebounds, scores 2s effeciently, and helps force turnovers with steals and blocks without fouling, then I can use that idea to filter through Cerebro’s data.

Setting 4 filters to average or above (At the Rim, Defensive Impact, 3pt Effectiveness, Floor General Skills), we can find players who rate average or better compared to the draft class in these categories.

The Results? only 4 players are average or better at defense, 3pt shooting, passing, and the rest of those attributes baked into Cerebro’s formulas
:
Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Danny Wolf, and Max Shulga

These next two data viz show the Best Offensive Engine Scoring Creator 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data:

Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP), Floor General Skills (FGS), and 3PT Effectiveness (3PE)

2025 NBA Draft – Cerebro Scoring Creators Scatter

and the same data by position:
better passing = bigger square // better scoring = darker color

Top Prospects in Floor General Skills (FGS):

1) Ryan Nembhard 96
2) Kam Jones 82
3) Javon Small 79
4_ Egor Demin 78
5) Mark Sears 76
T-6) Kobe Sanders / Kasparas Jakucionis 74
8) Walter Clayton Jr. 73
T-9) Nique Clifford / Cooper Flagg / Max Shulga 72
T-12) Jeremiah Fears / Dylan Harper 71
14) Danny Wolf 69
T-15) VJ Edgecombe / Johni Broome / Sion James 67


Top Prospects in Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 93
2) Eric Dixon 88
3) Vladislav Goldin 84
4) Nique Clifford 83
T-5) Maxime Raynaud / John Tonje / Dylan Harper 82
T-8) Collin Murray-Boyles / Kam Jones 81
T-10) Cooper Flagg / Johni Broome 80
12) Tre Johnson 79
T-13) Walter Clayton Jr. / Chaz Lanier 78
T-15) Asa Newell / Rasheer Fleming / Adou Thiero / Javon Small 76


Top Prospects in 3PT Effectiveness (3PE):

1) Chaz Lanier 93
T-2) Eric Dixon / Koby Brea 90
3) Walter Clayton Jr. 88
4) Tre Johnson 87
T-5) Javon Small / John Tonje / Kon Knueppel / Tyrese Proctor 83
T-9 Mark Sears /Max Shulga 81
11) Alijah Martin 80
T-12) Rasheer Fleming / Will Richard 79
14) Maxime Raynaud 77

Prospects who ranked best in both passing and scoring:

Kam Jones, Nique Clifford, Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, Walter Clayton Jr., Javon Small, Mark Sears, Johni Broome, Tre Johnson, Collin Murray-Boyles, Kasparas Jakucionis, Max Shulga, Kon Knueppel, Danny Wolf, Jeremiah Fears, VJ Edgecombe, Alijah Martin, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins

Prospects who ranked best in all three of passing, scoring, and shooting:

Alijah Martin, Cooper Flagg, Danny Wolf, Dylan Harper, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins, Javon Small, Jeremiah Fears, Johni Broome, Kam Jones, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kobe Sanders, Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Mark Sears, Max Shulga, Tre Johnson, Tyrese Proctor, VJ Edgecombe, Walter Clayton Jr., Will Riley

Poetic to see former Creighton teammates bookending these scoring creator stats with Ryan Nembhard leading all prospects in Floor General Skills by a mile and Ryan Kalkbrenner dominating yet another category, this time in Pure Scoring Prowess.

Players who rank highly in Scoring but not shooting or passing could be promising play-finishers, like Kalkbrenner, Eric Dixon, Vlad Goldin

Players who rank highly in 3pt shooting and Passing could be good offensive connectors, if not better, such as those who rate 65 or higher in both FGS and 3PE:
Walter Clayton Jr., VJ Edgecombe, Sion James, Ryan Nembhard, Max Shulga, Mark Sears, Kobe Sanders, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Dylan Harper, Danny Wolfl, Cooper Flagg

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Defense/Hustle/At The Rim

Some promising Defense/Hustle/Rim Stats are deflections, blocks, steals, rebounds, charges, loose ball recoveries, shot contests, and fouls.

These next two data viz show the Best Defensive 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data utliziing stats like these for At The Rim (ATR), Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI), and Overall Impact (C-RAM).

This first visualization shows a player’s overall impact by circle size, defensive impact vertically focusing on steals, blocks, fouls, rebounds, and at the rim impact horizontally which accounts for rebounding, blocks, and 2P%.

bigger circle = better Overall Impact (C-Ram)

the same data by position:
better Defensive Statistical Impact = bigger square // better At The Rim = darker color

Top Prospects in At The Rim (ATR):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 87
2) Johni Broome 85
T-3) Khaman Maluach / Maxime Raynaud 82
T-5) Danny Wolf / Rasheer Fleming 80
T-7 Collin Murray-Boyles / Thomas Sorber 79
T-9 Amari Williams / Derik Queen / Nique Clifford / Vladislav Goldin 78
T-13 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 77

Top Prospects in Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 101
2) Johni Broome 97
3) Thomas Sorber 95
4) Chris Manon 94
5) Rasheer Fleming 91
T-6) Cooper Flagg / VJ Edgecombe 90
T-8 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 88
T-10) Collin Murray-Boyles / Adou Thiero / Max Shulga 87
14) Alijah Martin 86
T- 15) Will Richard / Maxime Raynaud 85

With some overlap in these two defensive statistics, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Johni Broome rank 1 and 2 respectively in both. Multiple first round prospects rank highly in both, including Thomas Sorber, Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, VJ Edgecombe, Collin Murray Boyles, and Rasheer Fleming.

Chris Manon, VJ Edgecombe, Max Shulga, Alijah Martin, Will Richard rank Top-5 in DSI among guards. Nique Clifford ranks 78 in At The Rim activity while every other guard ranks 70 or below.

The NBA Combine provides measurables on most prospects like height, wingspan, weight that can be used to compare size, reach, and effective length.

I created a Data Viz of the 2025 NBA Draft Prospects by their Wingspan/Height Plus Minus compared with their Stocks Per Foul rate, where Stocks = STL + BLK

Top-5 Wingspan/Height Plus Minus

+9 Cedric Coward / Rasheer Fleming
+8.75 Thomas Sorber
+7 Amari Williams
+6.75 Drake Powell

Top-5 Stocks Per Foul

2.29 Ryan Kalkbrenner
1.58 Thomas Sorber
1.46 Cooper Flagg
1.45 Johni Broome
1.29 Alex Toohey

*Note, Cerebro Sports, CBB Analytics, and NBA Combine Data only consists of NCAA Players. International players data is from Basketball Reference.

With the 25th pick in the first round and the 46th and 57th picks in the second round of the 2025 NBA Draft, prospects and picks galore in the war chest, and young talent on good contracts filling up the roster, the Magic’s options this off-season feel endless. That doesn’t always end up translating to something big happening, but Orlando’s process keeps them prepared and flexible today and through the future to continually have the option to do something, which is the important part of making big splash trades – to stay ready for opportunities when value can be found.

In the past, Orlando has sold its second round picks for Cash Considerations; unless one or both are dealt in trades, don’t be surprised if that happens again, especially given how little opportunity there is for young prospects on this win-now roster.

One guess would be Orlando sells off one or both of the second round picks for cash. Another option could be packaging the 25th with the 2nd rounders to trade out of the draft for futrue assets or move up in the draft if there’s one particular prospect target in mind and they feel good about landing him at a slightly higher slot.

The Top-60 Prospects ranked below in tier are viewed as the same level as all prospects within the same tier, but factors like team/situation/role come into play as the tie-breaker. These players are ranked as such for this Magic team based on need, fit, opportunity, investment, and mostly just trying to answer questions like…

Which prospect has the most potential and the best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

Which prospect can help this team win now and in the future *and* fit within the current roster construction over the long haul the best?

The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board

Tier 1a – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: All-Star/All-Defense

1. Cooper Flagg
   The Runaway #1 Pick for a reason, Flagg is the most versatile basketball prospect this game has seen since LeBron.
   
   Any team can ask Cooper to do just about anything, and Flagg will either be good, great, or elite at it, able to slide into a multitude of different roles on both ends. An all-time great defensive prospect with Montverde at the high school level went on to produce an all-time great offensive season in his one and only year with Duke at the collegiate level.
   
   The Magic would obviously love to add a star like Flagg, who projects to play like a Supercharged Franz, and maybe even the one true Swish Army Knife of them all.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 1b – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: Offensive Engine/All-Star
   
2. Dylan Harper
   
   Harper would be taken more seriously in #1 pick talks in just about any other draft class. Dylan looks like a primary scoring creator, a true offensive engine for a team with the dynamic athleticism to give one hopes of positive defensive development. Harper’s a walking bucket tall point-guard who any team would love to have star in their backcourt operating the offense going forward.
   
   Orlando would be lucky to add a natural scoring creator point guard like Harper with how much talent they already have; after news of San Antonio being open to moving the #2 pick, should The Magic seriously look to to secure Harper as the third star to run the show? After trading for Bane, this feels highly unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 2 – Ceiling: Offensive Engine/All-Star, Defensive Anchor/All-Defense, Floor: High End Starter
   
3. Danny Wolf
   
   Many times this season, Wolf was a one-man offense for Dusty May’s Michigan team, as we discussed on the Learning Basketball Podcast.
   
   Running P&R as a near 7ft ball-handler with powerful rim-roller Vlad Goldin (#36 on this board) provides a proof of theory offensive role that will translate to the league. Danny ran 231 pick-and-rolls as his team’s ball-handler where his 0.94 PPP on P&R including passes ranked in the 65th percentile among all players.
   
   Shooting:
   33% 3P% on 51 Pull-Up 3PA
   34% 3P% on 62 C&S 3PA
   37% 3P% on 30 guarded C&S 3PA
   58% 2P% on 207 Layups
   
   Synergy Scoring Playtpes
   1.14 PPP on 43 Putbacks
   1.09 PPP on 44 Cuts
   1.03 PPP on 31 ISOs (82nd Percentile)
   1.02 PPP on 66 Spot Ups
   0.94 PPP on 33 P&R Roll Man
   
   Danny Wolf is a versatile scorer, a good shooter on and off the ball, an offensive orchestrator who can run either end of a pick-and-roll or spot-up off of a pick-and-pop or space the floor off a drive, a potential offensive playmaking hub who can initiate a team’s offense as a primary scoring creator option. Wolf’s sound footwork, big size, impressive mobility should help him hold his own on defense guarding big 4s and small 5s.
   
   Plus defender, great passer, good shooter, tight handle, two-way feel, unique style, special talent, at 6’11”.
   
   Orlando adding a versatile scoring big man who can run point guard duties and threaten defenses from deep would fill almost all the needs for this offense, freeing up the backcourt to continue to be filled with 3pt shooting scorers and defensive connectors between Bane, Suggs, and AB.
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. Tre Johnson
   
   Tre just posted one of the best shooting seasons any prospect has shown in years. His shot profile is as efficient and versatile as they come. His handle is tight enough to help him get to his spots and create any shot he wants, which he usually can make. His solid feel when defenses send help has shown promising playmaking skills to create for others off of the scoring gravity he brings. This combination could become a lethal scorer with passing chops as a primary option.
   
   Between Tre’s shooting/scoring gravity, the spacing he would breathe into Orlando’s offense, is just about the best possible fit the offense could ask for, someone who draws two on the ball, can hit the open three, and can make good reads to set up others.
   
   After adding Bane, trading up for Tre or anyone who isn’t more of a traditional point guard or D&3 big seems unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Kon Kneuppel
   
   Arguably the most complete offensive guard in the class, Kon’s combination of ball-skills from his handle, vision, shooting touch on and off ball, feel running the offense, ability to operate high volume of pick-and-rolls, should create a sum-of-its parts scoring creator at any level, a reliable offensive engine for any team.
   
   The biggest question mark will be defensively, if Kon can hold his own, but the toughness at his size is promising, the will to win is certainly there.
   
   Flanking Kon with plus-defenders where he’s the worst defender on the floor would be ideal, and elite team defenses like Orlando or Houston could use an offensive engine to make the halfcourt flow hum a little smoother.
   
   
   
   
6. VJ Edgecombe
   
   Outlier athlete who will be one of the NBA’s best athletes on Day 1, incredible defensive playmaker, unstoppable first step downhill burst, promising 3pt shooting development, improved decision-maker as season went on. This uber athlete with a high two-way 3&D floor and intriguing potential as a drive-and-kick scoring threat is a prospect any team would like to take a swing on.
   
   VJ would slide right into Orlando’s elite defensive turnover-forcing culture, and only be asked to hit the 3ball and run some secondary offense, allowing him to grow into his own as an on-ball threat and utilizing his off-ball skills immediately.
   
   
   
   
   
   This back half of the lottery is around where the fit in Orlando starts to get murky. Since this range of prospects are likely to be selected Top-14, Orlando would want to stay away from this 7-14 draft range if they deemed someone in a lower tier of prospect to be a better fit for this Magic team, like Walter Clayton Jr. or Jeremiah Fears. They would theoretically want to trade down from the back half of the lottery to secure them, or in reality probably have to trade up from 25.
   
   
7. Noa Essengue
   
   The downhill force forward with graceful footwork has shown an impressive development curve at one of the youngest ages in the draft class. Already showing defensive versatilty with high-impact in many facets, and transition tenacity as an off-ball mover in fast breaks, rebounds, and cuts, the question remains is how much brighter can Noa’s ever-growing star get.
   
   Can he refine the halfcourt on-ball skills to become a true two-way assassin? Could he define a handful of go-to moves for himself to at least score consistently in addition to his defense and fast break fuel?
   
   His potential is sky-high if he continues developing at this rate. In Orlando, the fit would be tough to find minutes at forward without a 3pt shot, but the energy would be appreciated on any team. Filling a role as a play-finishing center until he develops more ball-skills would be interesting to see play out here; maybe he can become a point-center in transition along with a playfinisher in the halfcourt.
   
   
   
   
8. Asa Newell
   
   Newell offers one of the more stable packages of any draft prospect: a lengthy big wing defender who can switch 3-5, use his high-point athletic gifts to block shots at the rim and time up offensive rebounds, and hit the open catch-and-shoot threes out of pick-and-pop, with the ability to attack closeouts with post-up counter-move footwork.
   
   Newell could slide into Orlando’s front court depth as a capable small-ball 5 or backup 4, a versatile defender who can hit the open three and provide two-way winning impact around the rim and on the glass.
   
   Asa’s defensive versatility, 3pt shooting, offensive rebounds impress most, and he also proved to be an efficient scorer off those putbacks on a high volume of scoring as a lead option for Georgia.
   
   
   
   
9. Khaman Maluach
   
   The most efficient rim-finisher the college game has seen… ever? Maluach lobs are automatic alley-oops. Khaman has great hands catching lob passes, though sometimes struggles with tougher passes inside the paint. He shows shooting touch potential to develop as a pick-and-pop threat, and otherwise is a lethal rim-roller right away. Defensively a smart big man, uses hands and strength effectively, and has potential to be elite on that end as well.
   The defense and rim-rolling would be bring a defined two-way role, but the 3pt shooting development could be a big holdup to his playing time. Khaman would bring two-way winning impact without the jumper just as a rim-rolling defensive anchor, so that alone is worth a look next to Orlando’s creators.
   
   Khaman has the highest offensive rebounde percentage of the class while also rating well in Hakeem %, which combines Block % and Steal % to essentially show what percentage of a team’s turnovers any given player forced.
   
   
   
   
10. Thomas Sorber
    
    Thomas Sorber is an absolute tank.
    Sorber’s smoothie of size, skills, smarts blends into an incredibly intimidating presence that could one day anchor an NBA defense and offer a connective playmaking hub on offense.
    
    Sorber’s 2025 NBA Draft Rank Tank Bonafides:
    
    #1 Body Weight (263)
    #2 Stocks Per Foul (+1.58)
    #3 in Wingspan/Height +/- (+8.75)
    
    Thomas Sorber ranks 3rd in DSI and 7th in ATR via Cerebro., making him one of the top defensive prospects in the class.
    
    Sorber’s cerebral two-way feel for the game wreaks havoc defensively, protects the rim as a defensive anchor, and brings a postup playmaking hub on the offense end. Without a 3pt shot, it would be challenging to win minutes on the Magic, but Thomas Sorber’s potential as a defensive anchor down low is too much to deny.
    
    
    
    
11. Collin Murray-Boyles
    
    CMB shows incredible defensive instincts, two-way feel for the game, graceful downhill strides as powerful 4/small 5 defensive playmaker. A head of steam often opens up Collin’s drives to the rack, with good feel to make smart reads and playmaking vision to execute the passes.
    
    Murray Boyles’ defensive mind is what stands out for him as a prospect, his ability to use his big hands to perfectly time up deflections, force stops, and then grab and go downhill off the turnover.
    
    The fit in Orlando is not great with Paolo at the 4 and CMB’s lack of perimeter shooting, but as a small 5 and backup 4 he would certainly be a winning player on almost any team, despite the worrisome jump shot mechanics.
    
    
    
    
12. Ace Bailey
    
    Bailey is a tough-shot making big wing 3pt sniper who flashes defensive potential. While the unrefined handle and lack of playmaking vision is worrisome as a primary initator for team offense, Bailey’s shooting ability, rebounding activity, and defensive athleticism should all still translate to the next level.
    
    Ace in Orlando’s frontcourt would provide a capable 3pt shooter to stretch the floor, an glass-cleaning rebounder, and potentially an impactful big wing help defender. If Bailey’s able to create his own shot without needing the handle, the two-way potential as a D&3 Big Wing Scorer rises even higher, but that may require outlier development.
    
    
    
    
    
13. Derik Queen
    
    A one-of-a-kind tank big who uses size and graceful strides to finesse his way to the rack like the a bull in a china shop who somehow didn’t break a single dish. Queen’s passing flashes are impressive, showing incredible vision for a player his size, and a handle good enough to help create advantages on the go.
    
    With Paolo in Orlando, the fit for Queen may be tough due to some overlaps in skillsets that aren’t additive to each other, similarly to CMB, but talent can sometimes find a way. Perhaps having either one on the floor at all times could carve out a role as a small-5 or backup-4, and certainly help replicate the offense when Paolo is out due to injury.
    
    Queen’s defensive effort, maximizing his athleticism, and working on the perimeter jumpshot are question marks, but who’s to say Queen can’t become a high-volume foul-drawing downhill force playmaking hub who can score at the rim and create paint-and-spray offense for any team?
    
    The downhill force of players like Collin Murray Boyles and Derik Queen can best be captured in a data viz like this one below comparing Points in the Paint and Free Throw Attempts per game, along with other stats like 3pt assists, to show the results of players who successfully penetrate the paint. Players who bend defenses in the paint are able to attack the rim, draw fouls, and kickout for threes or throw lobs at the rim to the man in the dunker spot.
    
    CMB ranks 9th in FTA and 5th in Points in the Paint per gameQueen ranks 8th in FTA and 7th in Points in the Paint per game
    
    
    
    
    Prospects listed 14-22 could all be good fits in Orlando to help bring depth of talent who fill needs and fit the identity. Trading up for a target or sitting and hoping a bpa from this list is there at 25 are fine strategies for good players.
    
    
    Tier 3 – Ceiling: High-End Starter, Floor: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man
    
14. Walter Clayton Jr.
    
    A 3pt sniper point guard who can beat you off screens, handoffs, pullups. Runs the offense as an initiator, slides right into Orlando’s handoff-heavy system, fills the high-volume 3pt shooter on and off ball as a point guard who can run some offense and set up Orlando’s elite frontcourt scorers and depth of play-finishers in the best possible position to succeed using shooting gravity and quick decision making feel.
    
    As for Orlando’s big board needs, Clayton has a case to be ranked as high as 7 here, but I and many others view everyone ranked between 7 and 14 as a higher tier level of nba prospect. This works out for the Magic, however, since Orlando doesn’t pick until 25, where Clayton might still be available.
    
    An answer to one of the team’s biggest needs could fall right into their laps.
    
    With the addition of Bane, losing the 16th pick, filling a shooting need, ending up with WCJ is less likely to happen, but not out of the question.
    
    As a draft thought exercise, if they moved up to 7, would they do so just to secure Walter Clayton Jr.? Would they move back to the mid-first range where they were before to select Walter closer to where he’s projected? Or is there someone else listed above they’d target in a trade to move up in the draft, like hoping Tre, Kon, or VJ are still there at 7?
    
    Walter Clayton Jr. ranks in 3rd in 3PA/gm volume and 6th in FT%, two positive indicators for future outside shooting development.
    
    
    
15. Jeremiah Fears
    
    Fears quick first step burst is practically impossible to cut off from penetrating the paint, an elite skill advantage that Fears will need to rely on at the next level, along with his impressive decelerating body control weaving in and out of defenses.
    
    Fears shows the killer pull-up 3pt shot and an uncanny ability to draw fouls on drives with a paint-and-spray attitude at a point guard scoring creator looking for the best shot for his team.
    
    Orlando could use his skill-set immediately, as Fears could slide right into the scoring point guard role for this Magic team. Unfortunately, he’ll likely not be available by pick 25. Could Orlando move back up in the draft to land a Fears or Clayton?
    
    
    
16. Ryan Kalkbrenner
    
    Kalkbrenner provides a stable two-way option late in the first round as a traditional rim-protecting big man who can also step out for three.
    
    Ryan will provide team-first winning impact to just about any squad as a playable rotation big with high two-way impact upside as a 3&D center if the shot proves reliable.
    Kalkbrenner sneakily could solve a big need for Orlando at Center, perhaps finally finding its utility big man to do a lot of things well, protect the rim, rebound, score against postup mismatches, and hit the open three around Orlando’s starting frontcourt of Franz and Paolo.
    
    Kalkbrenner being available at 25 for Orlando would be a steal for a reliable D&3 backup big with two-way starter potential.
    
    Kalkbrenner’s 2025 NBA Draft Ranks
    #1 Stocks Per Foul (+2.29)
    #4 Body Weight (257 lbs)
    T-#26th in Wingspan/Height +/- (+5 in)
    
    
    
    
    
17. Cedric Coward
    
    Tied with Rasheer Fleming for having the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (+9 in!), Cedric brings the lengthy measureables to the equation as a 6’5” guard 3pt specialist, a classic energetic D&3 archetype who slides right into a two-way role for any team.
    
    Orlando can’t have enough two-way floor-spacers around its star scorers, especially filling up the backcourt rotation, as KCP and Gary Harris have shown filling D&3 roles through previous seasons. Cedric could be a clean fit to replace that role in the long term for this team as a high-end two-way starter or positive impact role player, though Bane’s addition might prove playmaking and big man needs to be more dire.
    
    
    
    
18. Jase Richardson
    
    Versatile scorer with incredible shooting touch and quick processing skills, positive defensive energy, and strong connector capabilities create a strong two-way presence in Jase Richardson.
    
    While reportedly undersized at the combine, Jase could fill many holes for Orlando’s backcourt as a shooter, scorer, plus-defender who makes team-first decisions with the ball, and shares NBA legacy with his brother Jaxon and father Jason “J-Rich, Magic Legend” Richardson.
    
    
    
19. Carter Bryant
    
    Good defensive feel and capable 3pt shooting 6’7” forward with scoring chops could provide any team with a good basketball player who brings two-way impact.
    
    Orlando could use all the good basketball players they can get around its stars, especially if they fill a D&3 role with scoring being gravy on top, adding Carter could be a fine play for role player depth.
    
    
    
    
    
20. Rasheer Fleming
    
    Tied with Cedric Coward for the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (9in !), Rasheer Fleming offers another D&3 prospect, this time as a 6’8” wing.
    
    With Orlando’s frontcourt depth, there might not be much opportunity to develop. However, there’s always room to try D&3 prospects around the team’s creators, and a role could be found with the second unit and as an injury replacement starter when one of the stars go down. With Black, Da Silva, Isaac on the bench, Fleming does bring a different 3&D dynamic, but would have to compete for playing time.
    
    
    
    
21. Liam McNeeley
    
    High school hoops legend with a knockdown 3pt shot and the aggressive mentality to dunk on drives when attacking closeouts. Liam could fill a role as a 3pt shooter off the ball and a shooting threat off handoffs and screens, someone who can reboudn, handle, and pass well enough to keep the ball moving and make the right decision for the team, and even initiate some offense as a secondary creator at times.
    
    Orlando would be a clean fit for the 3pt shooter as a 6th man who spread the floor, attacks closeouts, runs a few DHOs/P&Rs, and mostly spreads the floor.
    
    The defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the functional size is there for Liam (6’7”, 215) to be a big guard who plays with a contagious fire, can light it up from deep, dunk on your head, and excite any crowd with intensity.
    
    
    
    
    
22. Nique Clifford
    
    If scoring versatility is the game, Nique Clifford is the name. Clifford can beat defenses in a multitude of ways to put the ball in the rack rather efficiently. He can provide plus-defense for his team on and off the ball. He’s a walking bucket who put himself on the map at Colorado.
    
    With Orlando drafting Tristan Da Silva last year, and Nique bringing similar scoring versatility to the table, maybe that’s a sign that he’s a good target as a potential backup 2-guard to Bane, since you can’t really have enough good basketball players who can score in a variety of ways, make big defensive plays, and make team-first decisions with the ball.
    
    An all-around portfolio, Nique Clifford ranks 4th in PSP, 9th in FGS, and 1st amongst guards in At The Rim.
    
    
    
    
23. Kasparas Jakučionis
    
    A tall point-guard pick-and-roll assassin with a go-to stepback pull-up three who uses body control, fundamental footwork, and impressive finishing at the rim to draw defenders into the paint for kickouts, whistles, and shots at rim. Kasparas can help generate offense on a whim.
    
    While Orlando has Franz in place filling a highly similar role, it’s not actually the worst idea to have a backup Franz in case of emergency. Kasparas is much smaller, but brings a similar playstyle that would help replicate Orlando’s offensive identity whether Franz shares the court or not.
    
    With both being better on pull-ups than catch-and-shoots, they might be better staggered, but that could provide Orlando with one reliable “point-forward” at all times. Despite that, the lack of defense and C&S 3pt shot make this a questionable fit.
    
    
    
    
24. Noah Penda
    
    An energetic defensive play-finisher that moves around the court so frenetically he looks like he snuck a diet Dew into his pregame Gatorade bottle, Penda is a strong playfinisher, smart connective passer, and active off-ball mover, rebounder, defender.
    
    Penda will likely be a high-end starter for a winning team, even if its as the 5th starter piece of the perfectly balanced lineup, but the lack of offensive juice could limit his lineup options in Orlando, providing a tough opportunity to develop.
    
    Could he be in winning lineups? Yes. Would he be able to play with Franz and Paolo as the longterm C? Maybe not. A winning depth piece that could be a value pick depending on the slot, but might be a tough fit for playing time in a crowded Orlando frontcourt. As a longterm backup 4 plug-and-play big, there is potential here for Penda’s play-finishing.
    
    
    
    
25. Adou Theiro
    
    Explosive NBA athlete who forces turnovers everywhere defnsively as a dynamic 6’6” wing who flies off the page anytime he opens a book. Raw offense but shows enough all-around potential to carve out a two-way role with patient development. Energetic defense, fast break missile launches, espn top-10 slams should quickly make him an exciting household name for fans.
    
    While the upside would be an intriguing upside play, its hard to see his opportunity to develop with the starting unit in Orlando. If he’s got the highest ceiling available at 25, maybe the team takes a swing on talent the later the draft goes, but finding a player who can fill roles and needs for this Magic team that just made moves to win now should take priority.
    
    
    
    
    Tier 4 – Ceiling: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man, Floor: Fringe Rotation Player
    
26. Will Riley
    
    Raw intriguing talent as as 3pt shooter and connective passer who can make impact plays off ball and who rated highly in BPM throughout the season, even overtaking Kasparas some in ball duties for Illinois as the season went on.
    
    This would be a dice roll on talent, impact, upside for Orlando, which isn’t a bad choice this late in the draft. While one could attempt to address a need at PG, C, or general shooting, this is a bet on talent, in-house development. Since Orlando has stated win-now goals, this idea is less likely to happen than the team taking one of the shooters or play-finishers over the next stretch, but hitting on an exciting 3pt connector late in the draft could be a huge swing for the Magic.
    
    
    
27. Javon Small
    
    A tough small guard who does just about everything well, Small has earned a look to be an NBA rotation guard, and few players fit the ilk of Orlando’s team identity better.
    
    Small gives no ground defensively, can guard multiple positions from the backcourt, and then he can turn around and initiate offense as the point guard running different playtypes, hit the jumper on and off the ball from deep, and score within different playtypes as well.
    
    Versatile scoring creator, capable 3pt shooter, and positive impact defender is just the type of guard Orlando covets around its stars.
    
    With Bane’s arrival to a backcourt already featuring Suggs, Small would make an interesting understudy to them both.
    
    
    
    
    
    
28. Sion James
    
    NBA Athlete who filled his role so well it expanded as the Duke season went on.
    
    Attacks closeouts, provides effort hustle plays defensively, at 6’6” can play 1-3 with tenacious on-ball defense, has a quick first step burst and explosive verticality and good feel for where to be and what to do.
    
    Sion could immediately help a winning team filling a small role, and in Orlando he’d get to do just that. Capable C&S 3pt shooter who can bend the defense, penetrate the paint, keep the ball moving, and defend his own would be more than welcome in O-Town.
    
    
    
    
    
    
29. Kam Jones
    
    Versatile old-school scoring guard who can get buckets, get in the paint, get to the line, and get his teammates open. Questionable defender at the next level, but the buckets should look smooth doing it.
    
    Kam could address some of Orlando’s offensive woes, while Orlando’s elite team defense could cover up some of Kam’s defensive holes. The Magic could add one of college basketball’s best scorers last year late in the first round or potentially even in the second round, where either way Jones could fill a role as a scorer, shooter, connective passer, and secondary playmaker creating offense for the team.
    
    Kam has the best combination of AST% and TO% of any draft prospect:
    
    
    
30. Nolan Traore
    
    Traore’s combination of quick first step burst, connective playmaking, defensive footwork, and perimeter shooting flashes earned him the nod here for the 30th spot on this Magic-centric big board over prospects like Koby Brea’s 3pt shooting and Vlad Goldin’s sound rim-protecting rim-rolling presence, or the two-way high floor throwback scoring of Johni Broome.
    
    If The Magic are taking gambles this late in the draft, maybe they should take a swing on a shooter like Brea who might launch 8 3PA per game one day? If the team wants two-way winning players to fill out the rotation to help compete today, a bet on Broome, Traore, or Goldin is probably better.
    
    Both choices depend on how many picks Orlando keeps (down to 3), how much contribution they expect from rookies right away (probably a lot), and what kind of risks the team is willing to take when it comes being patient with draft picks compared to the value of adding more proven talent through other avenues of team-building. (Bane says its time to win)
    
    
    
31. Johni Broome
32. Ben Saraf
33. Vlad Goldin
34. Maxime Raynaud
35. Hansen Yang
36. Koby Brea
37. Mark Sears
38. Egor Demin
39. Amari Williams
    
    Tier 5 – Ceiling: Raw Potential NBA Pro, Floor: International Pro
40. Joan Beringer
41. Eric Dixon
42. Chaz Lanier
43. Drake Powell
44. Jamir Watkins
45. Arthur Kaluma
46. RJ Luis Jr.
47. Max Shulga
48. Alijah Martin
49. Ryan Nembhard
50. Tyrese Proctor
51. Alex Toohey
52. Yanic Konan Niederhauser
53. Hugo Gonzalez
54. Dink Pate
55. Rocco Zikarsky
56. Kobe Sanders
57. Hunter Sallis
58. Will Richard
59. John Tonje
60. Chris Manon

So – which prospect has the most potential and best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando, given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Orlando keeps at least two of its three picks, both in the range of its current slots (25 + 46-57)

As of today, 13 players have been invited to the NBA Green Room for Draft night, with expectations to be selected relatively high, and Noa Essengue likely to receive an invite once he finishes playing overseas.

Those 13 Green Room names (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell) are likely to be taken by the 25th overall pick where Orlando sits, but that might not be a bad thing for every name here, and there’s always a few surprise names who slip every year.

The ideal players slipping among this group (other than Flagg) would be skilled scorers like Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel, or the explosive defender VJ Edgecombe, but that was much likelier to possibly happen at 16, not 25.

With his quick first step burst, 3pt shooting potential, natural point guard feel, Jeremiah Fears is one of the more interesting names to watch if he’s still available at the 25th slot, but another to unlikely be available outside of the lottery.

Later in the mid-first round draft range, prospects like Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Carter Bryant, and Cedric Coward could all fit nicely in Orlando’s backcourt. All these guards space the floor and offer varying levels of scoring, defense, and shooting skills, which all help balance out and contribute quickly to Orlando’s paint-and-spray big wing attack. Nique Clifford another name to watch as a scorer, passer, and plus-defender.

If Danny Wolf is still available, that’s the big name to watch for Orlando: A point-center/forward (✓), a 3pt shooter on and off ball (✓), with size and footwork to guard big 4s and small 5s (✓), who shows incredibly unique two-way feel for the game at nearly 7ft tall (✓) , and is, you guessed it, a Michigan Man. (✓)

Wolf is a proven offensive orchestrator who can run pick-and-rolls with ease, slide into the short-roll playmaker on the next set, spread the floor for three the next possession, and play connector playmaking hub the next play. The Magic need a point-something who can hit the open three, play connector next to the stars, yet also initiate the offense so those stars don’t have to every time down the floor. Finding a unique big man who can fill those roles in an already formidable frontcourt and 1-4 starting unit set would be a worthwhile experiment on a high-risk high-reward high-feel high-potential swing.

Another name that makes too much sense for the Orlando Magic if he’s sitting there at 25?

UF’s own NCAA Champion, Walter Clayton Jr., who has as worthy of a case as just about any prospect to be this Magic team’s primary target.

Clayton lights up the gym from deep like its nothing, an efficient high-volume 3pt sniper who can shoot on and off ball, run some P&R offense, and flow right into Orlando’s handoff heavy system, fitting seamlessly with a big shot pedigree that may even remind one of Jalen Suggs.

A huge value play at 25 would be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the smart rim-protecting presence out of Creighton who flashes C&S 3pt shooting potential as a pick-and-pop rim-rolling threat. Orlando’s constant hunt for its longterm reliable big man continues, and a potential D&3 bet could be a nice play for a 3pt shooting shot-swatting big man that can be harder to find that one might think.

Assuming all the names above are off the board, then a few late-first round/fringe second round targets to watch could be complete role players: guards like Kam Jones, Javon Small, and Nolan Traore; bigs like Vlad Goldin, Wolf’s Michigan teammate and strong rim-rolling rim-protector, or intriguing big man playmakers Maxime Raynaud and Hansen Yang.

Some of the above names could slip to Orlando’s late second round slots, but given the lack of depth in this class due to all the NIL dropouts, its no guarantee. Packaging two seconds or the 25th pick to move around in the draft, maybe to an earlier second round pick to secure the guy you want and add a future pick is always good value play for a team that just needs to leave this draft with one good basketball player somewhere between 25-57. Even moving back from 25 to the 30s wouldn’t lose much potential value on a pick, especially if the team can use good process to add a future pick on top of it.

With Orlando’s final pick(s) in the 45-57 range, if none of the players listed above are available, the Magic could take a swing on a backup point guard like Mark Sears or Ryan Nembhard, or a potential 3pt shooter like Koby Brea, Arthur Kaluma, Eric Dixon, Chaz Lanier or Tyrese Proctor

Orlando Magic Draft Targets Within Range:

25
Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton Jr., Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jeremiah Fears, Nique Clifford, Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Cedric Coward, Carter Bryant, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Nolan Traore, Vlad Goldin, Johni Broome


45-57
anyone listed above who is still available + Hansen Yang, Maxime Raynaud, Eric Dixon, Koby Brea, Mark Sears, Ryan Nembhard, Chaz Lanier, Arthur Kaluma, Tyrese Proctor


After the Bane trade, it seems less likely that Orlando will invest in another 2-guard; however, with Gary Harris and Jett Howard as the lone SG depth on the roster, maybe finding a high-end two-way wing is still a priority.

The top-2 goals this summer for Orlando now:

1) Target and acquire a long-term starting Center, or a prospect who can become a D&3 big with a little scoring juice
2) Round out rotation with playable depth for a playoff run, between a natural point guard or a 2/3 size wing who can shoot and defend

Of course, the Magic just made their big move. They probably don’t feel pressure to do anything else if they feel this roster is ready to contend already, but if any question remains about the shooting, the center play, the depth, paths to upgrade exist.

Magic fans have been counting down the days for something big to happen like this for years; a consolidation trade to bring this team closer to contending. The team made its goals clear: proven offensive talent was needed, and acquired.

They took their big swing to first address this need by dishing out four first rounders, a pick swap,, Cole + KCP for Bane.

Are the Magic finished making moves?

Maybe Orlando somehow trades into the Top-10 for Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, or Kon Knueppel to help balance the offense, but now that the team has packaged some picks and rotation players for a more proven offensive talent, it seems likelier the team will stay put at 25 to target a good player on a rookie deal, or package its picks to move around the draft for their target.

When it comes to draft night trades, there are plenty of reasons to make deals.

Here’s 5:

1) Front offices are filled with humans, and deadliens create urge for humans. Teams wait for dates like the trade deadline and draft night to make moves for many reasons, one being to evaluate every possible deal and ounce of leverage before settling on a trade packge. But on those nights, anything can happen – some teams are on edge, some desperate, some excited to make a splash, whether that be a big draft night selection or a midnight trade to excite fans with something new over the off-season; as draft day approaches, unpredictable chaos and impulse decisions await.

2) Consensus big boards allow teams to view draft slot ranges where prospects are most expected to land between, so given the knowledge of other team needs/connections/identity, this opens up opportunities to trade up in the draft to secure a coveted prospect, or move back in the draft to add draft capital if your coveted prospect isn’t likely to be considered anytime around the slot you currently possess.

3) Trading out of the draft for additional future picks is almost always a good decision, even if taking on salary to do so. This generally smart draft process acquires extra draft capital for the price of today’s, just because other teams (owners) generally prefer to have the draft pick *that* night, and are willing to pay extra to do it.

4) Pre-agency: Star players, draft picks, and every nba player in between share the same agencies; all sides talk every possibility long before they happen. If a team believes a major splash is available, their best chance to take the dive is on draft night, the last night where the picks posses the most value they’ll ever have because that pick can still potentially be *anything*, before the car is driven off the lot and becomes an actual player the next day, losing value just by going from potential to reality.

5) Christmas Morning: Fans love a good trade, a fresh face, a new name to see on posters, sides of buildings, tv commercials. Draft Day should be a national holiday, as watching the first team go On The Clock feels like waking up on Christmas Morning, where any team’s fans can still get any gift. Few feelings are as fun for a fan like watching a midnight move go down or a surprise draft pick get made (#ThankYouBane), but few feelings are as sad for fans as seeing their favorite players sent out the door. (#RIPOrlandipo)

The Magic went into the summer shopping these trade pieces first:

Draft Picks: 16, 25, 45, 57, PHX 2026 Swap, Future 1sts
Prospects like Tristan Da Silva and Jett Howard
Rotation Players on Good Contracts like Jonathan Isaac, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Goga Bitadze

I would have bet a combination of 16, 25, Tristan Da Silva, Cole Anthony, and Jonathan Isaac or some mix of good role players on good salaries would be enough of well-rounded offer to pry one of these proven talents away from a rebuilding team.

Turns out the Magic could keep Black, Suggs, Da Silva, Isaac, 25 if they just sent out 4 future first rounders that have a good chance to be in the back half of the first round.


Magic Fans’ prayers have been answered.

Desmond Bane instantly provides Orlando with the high-volume 3pt sniper they’ve always wanted, a tough defender, a team-first connector passer who can run some offense and score in a variety of ways.

Suggs – Bane – Franz – Paolo – Wendell – Black – Da Silva – Isaac – Goga

Orlando’s got a young prime rotation to build around, an elite defense, two stars, five ball-handlers, and multiple all-defensive candidates too boot.

Now the team just needs to dot some ‘i’s, cross some ‘t’s, and hopefully draft another exciting prospect to add to the deep young core like Walter Clayton Jr., Danny Wolf, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Cedric Coward, Javon Small, on draft night

I guess we’ll just have to wait and find out what happens next on June 25th at 8:00pm EST.

The 2025 NBA Draft Countdown Clock BEGINS!

The post The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stability: ever-present calmness as the home crowd watches you with bated breath. The senses are overloaded, but the internal dialogue remains the loudest as the player dribbles the ball into a rhythm. Feeling the grooves of the basketball, the player releases the free throw shot with a sigh of relief as it leaves their fingertips.

Chaos and stability are often considered polar opposites but that notion couldn’t be further from the truth. Chaos can not be created without stability preceding it and neither can it be reverted to stability if there is no chaos. It’s two sides of the same coin, coinciding in a symbiotic relationship.

In its essence, basketball captures this conundrum perfectly. The game is built on its dynamism, ever-changing conditions that are presented to players and their teams, consistently being asked to adapt to the flow of chaos and stability.

As the rhythm of basketball echoes the interplay between chaos and stability, how does a young player develop through that? What allows them to reach that path of stardom in this subtle dance between spontaneity and composure? Especially when it may not seem apparent, and those players end up reaching those heights in unexpected, unorthodox avenues.

I believe the answer to these questions lies within three concepts that have cemented and formed my philosophy on NBA draft scouting and player projection. These three pillars of my philosophy for projecting stars are development curves, skill intersections, and role malleability.

False Ceilings

Let me start with the first pillar: development curves. Development is never linear and for that reason, it is crucial to watch how a prospect plays over their basketball careers and how many meaningful experiences they have throughout that young career. It helps paint the bigger picture with a prospect, understanding what skills they started with and how they’ve developed those skills over a period of time. 

To me, this is what a development curve is. Imagine a graph that charted the progressions and regression of a player over time, the average line would look like an exponential curve between those deviations whether that player is improving or in some cases getting worse.

That’s what is happening here: the red dots represent the different improvements in skills over a y-axis and x-axis, axes that showcase production and the timeframe respectively. Different players have different curves, some less steep than the example above and some of them where the growth is far more exponential, a line rapidly reaching new heights in a short amount of time.

Extremely steep development curves are where NBA stars are born. This type of growth in a prospect can be explained with various reasons, for example, it could be a physical growth spurt or they improved their shot or maybe they even begin to understand the game to a higher degree after starting to play the game at a later age compared to their peers.

Regardless of what that reasoning may be, this is what affects the steepness of the curve. When growth happens rapidly in a short amount of time and it leads to efficient production, it opens up the capacity to take on more of a workload as a player, acquiring new skills as the foundational skills that preceded them bolster.

Oftentimes, these types of development curves are hiding in plain sight due to the aesthetic and archetypal biases a prospect may be confined to. Coined by Matt Powers, my colleagues here at Swish Theory have frequently delved into what it means to be a false ceiling prospect. False ceiling prospects are those who have extremely steep development curves, yet their roles often obscure the anticipation of reaching greater heights due to the perceived limited upside.

The best recent example of this is with Franz Wagner, as Michael Neff describes it in his piece, Wagner was a highly productive sophomore at Michigan who was close to the age of a freshman, but likely fell in the draft due to his role on that team. Playing as a connector and a high-level defender, I can see why teams were lower on that type of player, especially when it meant taking a player who may not have enough on-ball equity extremely high.

Today, Franz looks like he should have gone far higher than the 8th pick in hindsight as he toggles between being a secondary and primary creator for the Orlando Magic. For the people who only watched Franz at Michigan, this may have come across as a huge surprise but these higher-level creation reps were hidden in Franz’s tape when he played for a pro team in Germany, ALBA Berlin.

You can see the idea of what Franz would be doing on far higher volume in the league, a crafty pick-and-roll operator with scoring decisiveness that could weaponize his size, touch, footwork, and deceleration on drives.

Taking a glance at his stats at Michigan, another reason why Franz was a false-ceiling prospect is that he was productive and functional in so many areas of basketball. This allowed him to carve out a role seamlessly in the NBA, further enabling him to grow his on-ball creation as he could provide high-level ancillary value to stay on the court while having plenty of opportunities to polish his craft in the pick-and-roll on a 21-51 Orlando Magic team.

The contradiction here is that Franz was a high-floor prospect, and for many, that meant the upside was potentially capped. However, a young player with a high number of baseline skills would inherently have a higher upside due to carving a niche in the NBA early. This idea of upside is further compounded when a player has a complimentary intersection of skills/attributes as Franz does.

A Chain of Skills

Another important idea in projecting stars has been identifying what tools and skills a player might have to lead them down that pathway. What I have come to learn is that more than a singular attribute of a player, it is the connection between those skills and how those intersections project to being functional on a basketball court. This is where my second pillar, skill intersections, comes into play.

Now visualize a steel chain, tightly interlocked between each chainlink that reinforces the overall strength of the chain. You can try to pull on the chain and try to rip it apart but it will maintain its structure, supported by the strength of each link working together.

A basketball player’s skillset and attributes can be similarly imagined, where an individual skill or athletic tool is its own part of the chain. Each skill and tool intersects in unique ways on the court, and sometimes that intersection can even be detrimental. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, but it becomes far more imperative to look at how those strengths intersect with each other and how they can make up for the weaker links in a player’s chain of skills.

For example, let us take a player that is 6’ 7” and is an uber athlete. The player might have NBA size, a great first step, and great leaping tools, these attributes give the player the margins to be a good driver and cutter. However, let’s say this player has a weak handle and sub-par touch. It becomes far more difficult for this player to drive to the rim functionally. When they do get past the first and second lines of defense and there is a presence at the rim, this player will not have the ability to create a counter like a midrange jumper or floater due to the touch. This intersection would then instead become counterproductive, where the weaker handle and touch can be seen as broken chain links that are destructive to the integrity of the overall chain. Due to the depth of talent in the NBA, it would require some truly outlier defense to offset being a 6’ 7” roll man since most NBA bigs can provide that offensive value at a much larger size.

What happens on the flip side of this, when the skills and tools complement each other on the court? Let’s explore how it functioned with Desmond Bane.

The 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft had spent his last four years prior at TCU, where the 6’6” sharpshooter improved as a shot creator with each year. Extremely productive as a senior, Bane was stretching college defenses thin with his shooting volume and versatility.

Shooting over hard closeouts effectively, making the right passing read out of pick and roll, and being able to funnel wings and slower guards on defense, Bane looked like the makings of a good rotational player at the very least. So why did he end up going so low in the draft in hindsight?

Bane falling to the 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft was a classic case of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes a subject to depend heavily on the first piece of information given to them. In the case of Desmond Bane, it was two data points: his age and negative wingspan.

Indicated by his 13.3 free throw rate, Bane’s handle was still on the weaker side for NBA-caliber wings and guards, making those two data points more prominent for NBA decision-makers. With age being a common proxy for upside and a negative wingspan that could affect his most translatable NBA skill which was shooting, I can understand why teams were hesitant to pick him earlier.

What teams failed to factor in was even with Bane’s negative wingspan, he was truly a unique shooter. He had micro-skills as a shooter that would allow him to operate in NBA margins; his shooting motion was extremely quick and his shooting platform was often away from the long, outstretched arms of defenders due to the high release point.

You could see this consistently in games, even when Bane’s handle took away from his shot windows, he was able to manufacture this space with the usage of screens and creativity when he had to pick up his dribble. Just watch as he tormented a Kansas team with length using his quick and high-release.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 NBA season and Bane looks like an All-Star, the Grizzlies have signed him to a rookie max extension, and the same handle issues are no longer a real concern as he averages 24.4 points a game on 59.7 TS%. How did he get to this point so quickly?

Bane had his flaws but what allowed his game to translate was his complementary intersection of basketball skills and physical attributes. Yes, he had a negative wingspan, and that caused him to gather the ball higher with his handle but the positives he had worked in complementary ways to overcome those issues. Ways that gave him developmental pathways for higher-level creation against better competition.

Drafted to the Grizzlies, Bane would not be required to immediately create like he did his senior year at TCU, where those handling issues would be more problematic at the NBA level. Playing off of creators like Ja Morant, Bane could scale next to these players effectively with his shooting and passing. Primarily as an off-the-catch scorer, Bane could attack tilted defenses with his shooting and straight-line driving, giving him the space to drive more often as the advantage creators on the Grizzlies and simplified role gave Bane the margins to improve his handle. What improved his margins to a higher degree is the unique intersection of shooting skill and uber-strength that Bane had.

Where his handle lacked, upper body strength enabled Bane to get into the chests of defenders and carve space for finishing angles. Due to the degree of shooter he is, he often receives a hard closeout where he could then act upon a defender that was off balance. This, NBA spacing and having a strong lower half would then allow him to consistently add handle counters like different stride lengths, throw-ahead dribbles, and change of pace. This combination of shooting touch and strength at 6’ 6” made him a strong play finisher and improved his handle in a short amount of time, allowing the Grizzlies to scale his usage up as a creator as time passed by.

Bane’s positive skills and attributes meshed well with his NBA role, each positive link in his chain of skills accommodating where the chain was cracked. Those chainlinks grew stronger over time and it led to a chain of skills that was far stronger than before.

This process of improvement would not be possible if it were not for the number of roles Bane played throughout his pre-NBA career that let him scale quickly in the league. As important as it is to identify a player’s chain of skills and understand what development curve they are on, a common trend that I have begun to notice with unorthodox players that grow quickly in a short period is role malleability.

How Do You Help Your Team Win?

We’re finally here, the crux of this piece and my third pillar of player projection: role malleability.

To me, role malleability is another step above the commonly used term in the discipline of basketball, role versatility. While role versatility looks at the spectrum of roles a player can navigate, role malleability takes a magnifying glass to that concept and looks at how productive a player is in those multiple roles and more importantly how quickly that player can adapt to a change in role.

Why would that be important? Remember how I talked about basketball being this subtle dance between chaos and stability? As an invasion sport, games in which the aim is to invade an opponent’s territory and score a goal or point, basketball is mostly in a state of chaos and this can often make it difficult for players to adapt to different basketball requirements quickly, especially for younger players.

Since the realm of sports is infused with the uncertainty of outcomes (Baimbridge, 1998), the athletes and spectators must therefore be prepared to adapt to the changing circumstances (Rahman, Husain, 2022). The productivity of a basketball player is in essence how effectively and quickly they are meeting ever-changing demands on the court.

Whether it’s from game to game or possession to possession, this flexibility to adapt to new constraints quickly and consistently can be used as a proxy for high-level feel in scouting. As Evan Zaucha explains in his piece, he describes feel as the sum of a player’s pattern recognition, visual processing (especially spatial recognition), and processing speed. Role malleability causes a player to consistently test these tenets of feel and this is why I believe it can open more pathways to stardom for a player.

Furthermore, I believe this theory on role malleability is further rooted in the work and research done on the concepts of cognitive flexibility in sports psychology. 

Cognitive flexibility is the human ability to adapt cognitive processing strategies to face new and unexpected conditions in the environment (Cañas et al. 2003). When a person performs a complex task their behavior needs to be adapted to the environmental conditions in which the task is being performed. However, these conditions continue to change as the task develops, therefore in order to be flexible, a person has to focus attention on these conditions on a regular basis. In addition to this, in order to adapt their behavior to the new conditions, the person needs to restructure their knowledge so as to effectively interpret the new situation and the new task requirements(Cañas et al. 2005). 

Cognitive processing strategies, in the context of this definition, are a sequence of operations that search through a problem space (Payne et al. 1993). In other words, role malleability is this exact concept of adapting different cognitive processing strategies to various stimuli. The rate at which younger players can process and adapt to new stimuli enables the mastery of skills in different environments, which therefore gives players the ability to develop new micro-skills upon their foundational skills.

This has been seen in research for other sports. Evidence for adaptability has been reported in unstructured, non-coached games of cricket and soccer (Araujo et al., 2010; Phillips et al., 2010a; Weissensteiner et al., 2009). The variability (e.g. different environment, different ball) experienced by players provided them with an opportunity to develop their sport-specific adaptability; although appearing to specialize early, the extreme variability in constraints they experienced allowed them to benefit from important aspects of both early specialization (accumulation of practice hours) and sampling (Potter, 2017).

A 2018 study (by Reddy et al.) found that brain state flexibility accompanied motor-skill acquisition. They proposed a time-time network for the application of graph theory in brain networks. The results were quite intriguing as they identified two canonical brain states associated with motor sequence learning. One key element they found was that the brain switches between states more frequently in later stages of learning. I believe this element lends itself to the adaptive part of role malleability. Problem-solving becomes more creative and layered when there is true mastery of skills.

Playing different offensive or defensive roles gives the player the opportunity to master the base skills needed to perform that role. With new constraints, players can keep adding micro-skills in response. As the rate of improvement increases, it is a sign that the player is capable of more, and coaches can then increase their workload and introduce them to a new set of constraints. 

This process leading to skill acquisition is the reason why I believe so many players who experience this throughout their young careers have experienced early success in the modern NBA. The most recent examples of this are players like Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, Austin Reaves, Gordon Hayward, and Brandon Miller. 

These players played several different roles over a wide range of competition levels, enabling them to master skills in those roles which could translate when adapting to more complex constraints. This allowed them to acquire new skills far more rapidly as their usage increased.

Oftentimes coaches and players will talk about the game slowing down for star players; I believe this is essentially what they mean. In the chaos of an invasion sport, stardom is found in those who find stability in that very chaos. This is due to the mastery of different roles lending itself to processing the same decisions at a quicker rate, unfazed by new obstacles thrown in the player’s way.  

A prime example of this is the OKC Thunder’s Jalen Williams. Jalen Williams played three years for the Santa Clara Broncos before he got to the NBA, where he played many offensive roles throughout his college career. Before getting to Santa Clara, Williams had a massive growth spurt from 6’ 0” to 6’ 6” by his senior year in high school. Playing as a point guard his entire life up until that point, his ball skills were still there but he had to get accustomed to his new measurements. It takes a while for a player to get used to being coordinated with their new body, William’s body was a new set of constraints for him to recalibrate. 

William’s coaches eased him into offensive usage, playing mostly as a connector attacking closeouts his freshman year, growing into more of a second-side creator his sophomore year, and finally excelling in primary usage on the ball his junior year. Jalen William’s unique intersection of ball handling, touch, and feel at his size allowed him to scale to a number of different roles in his junior year, putting up production regardless of what obstacle was thrown at him. 

Due to his mastery of skills in various roles, he could find stability in the chaos of new constraints. The efficiency was an indication of that mastery and a sign that Jalen Williams could take on more of a workload against better competition. The role malleability Williams has shown he could acquire more skills at a more rapid rate, causing his development curve to become steeper. Today, Williams is the secondary creator for the second seed in the Western Conference in only year two. He’s been a swiss-army-knife wing that has been highly productive in his main role, shooting 44.7% from the arc and an overall 62.8 TS% on the season so far.

Even in the NBA, his level of role malleability still lends itself to stability when he has to operate as the primary creator in instances. He’s truly on a path to stardom as he continues to refine his skills and acquire new ones as a creator.

Shifting gears back to the draft, are there any players that fit these three pillars that I have defined? Are there any players that are highly role malleable, due to their intersection of skills allowing them to consistently adapt to new circumstances? Are any of these players on a steep development curve due to their ability to gain new skills by adapting quickly?

Enter Johnny Furphy.

The Case For Johnny Furphy

Johnny Furphy is a 19-year-old freshman who is currently starting for the 2023-24 Kansas Jayhawks. Hailing from Melbourne, Australia, Furphy comes from an athletic family deeply rooted in sports. His father, Richard, made a career as a professional Australian rules football player, while his mother achieved bronze in the Junior Olympics for diving. His older sister plays soccer for Santa Clara and his older brother played basketball and is now a professional Australian football player.

Growing up in such a competitive household, where sports were a way of life, had a significant impact on Furphy. Johnny’s brother, Joe, who is five years older, played a pivotal role in sparking Johnny’s interest in basketball. Johnny Furphy started by playing pick-up with his older brother and his brother’s friends. Being undersized and the youngest for the longest time, Furphy gained an edge that you can see flare consistently when he’s on the basketball court.

For the longest time, Furphy was one of the smaller players on the court. Basketball was always the sport he enjoyed the most, but Furphy played other sports like Australian rules football and cricket during his time in school.

At the height of the pandemic, things drastically changed for Furphy. He was a late bloomer, but the former 5’ 8” guard had grown to 6’ 8” in a short time, a massive growth spurt as reported by Shreyas Laddha of the Kansas City Star. However, due to the strict COVID restrictions in Melbourne, Furphy could not play organized basketball for nearly two years.

Essentially losing his early high school years of basketball, Furphy had to get used to his new body, especially in the context of basketball. Furphy had to get his new body up to speed with all of the ball skills and feel he gained as a small guard. Barely making state teams before his growth spurt, Furphy got his chance to develop his game and body in his senior year with Australia’s Centre of Excellence, a training program for future national Australian basketball players where we’ve seen recent top-ten picks like Dyson Daniels and Josh Giddey come through.

Furphy was a relative unknown in basketball circles due to this development curve he’s been on, but he truly made his name in the summer of 2023 at the NBA Academy Games where he broke out in front of multiple pro scouts and college coaches. The college offers started pouring in, fast forward a couple of months and Furphy is a high-level contributor to a 21-8 Kansas team.

He may only be 19 today, but Furphy’s roller coaster ride of a start to hoops makes him pretty young in terms of high-level basketball experience. His ‘basketball age,’ is far lower when you compare him to the average 19-year-old. The growth spurt made his development curve steeper, and even with the lack of experience and time to grow into his body, he’s been extremely productive in a scaled role as a freshman. Similar to Jalen William’s late growth spurt, Furphy’s newfound size opened up far more pathways as a basketball player. This is one of the reasons why I believe Furphy is a false-ceiling prospect.

Furphy’s Chain of Skills

Before getting into Furphy’s production, let’s take a look at his skills, attributes, and how they intersect on the court.

Standing at 6’8”, potentially reaching 6’9” in shoes, Johnny Furphy possesses prototypical NBA size and length for the forward-wing position, complemented by a long wingspan spanning between 6’11” and 7’0”. Still gaining strength and weight, Furphy weighs a reported 202 pounds. At 19, he has a skinny frame, but this has not deterred him from being aggressive and physical on the court.

Watching him play over the past couple of years, you can see Furphy has high levels of touch and that translates to his most bankable NBA skill: shooting. Furphy is a pretty advanced shooter considering his experience, shooting with high volume and versatility that includes shots off of movement, off the dribble, above the break in transition, and catch-and-shoot. His mechanics have developed over the years, oftentimes having to accommodate for his lack of lower-body strength with a wider base. Today, Furphy’s shot is a 1.5-motion jumper with a high point of release, even mixing in no dip threes when extremely hard closeouts come his way.

The strongest facet of his shooting has been catch-and-shoot, but the capability to add different shots to his arsenal in a short period is a massive sign that he could be a high-level shooter.

I’ve compiled his shooting throughout these past couple of years, and you can see Furphy’s mechanics were initially accommodating for upper and lower body strength. A wider base, low release, and his knees protruding forward are different parts of his mechanics accommodating to larger distances. Even off movement, his stability was not great and self-organization was extremely slow, often needing a rhythm dribble to get into his shot. In just a year, Furphy has gained core strength and improved stability throughout his body, leading to better energy transfer throughout his kinetic chain and that is shining through in his efficiency.

Furphy adding this versatility while shooting with high volume is a proxy for the growing shooting confidence that he and his coaches have in him. What makes this truly impressive is that Furphy has dealt with a weaker lower half since he had his growth spurt, and has not been able to make massive strength gains here due to dealing with minor shin injuries before being recruited to the Centre of Excellence and a severe case of shin splints before his season started at Kansas. The injuries added an extra obstacle to developing his lower half strength due to being in the rehab process.

Even with his weaker lower half, Furphy has explosion and a quick load time off of two feet. He doesn’t cover a lot of distance vertically but this is where his length helps him extend into finishes, which is further strengthened by his ability to explode over the top of defenses off of his back foot. You can really see this in Furphy’s offensive rebounding, drives/cuts to the rim in the halfcourt, and when he attacks the rim in transition.

Give Furphy an open lane to build up momentum and it becomes really difficult to stop him at the rim due to his physicality, functional strength, and leaping mechanics. This intersection of athletic traits and shooting touch gives Furphy a baseline as a high-level play finisher in the NBA, weaponizing it when given space and attacking defenses that are in scramble mode.

But what about his ability to create at a higher degree? This is where his feel kicks in. Furphy already has an advanced understanding of spacing, constantly relocating off the ball and cutting into space for finishes and offensive rebounds. When he does have the ball in his hands, he’s shown to make one-level reads with relatively quick processing.

A 6’ 9” shooter with bounce and connective passing at 19 is a great baseline but to project even higher forms of creation, it requires an NBA player to be able to self-create half-court drives on volume. This is the weakest part of Furphy’s chain of skills on the offensive end, where a weak handle hampers his creation reps.

As a driver, Furphy does have one unique aspect: lower body flexibility. Although he’s a large player, Furphy is consistently able to get lower than players on drives and leverage his physicality. This is in part due to his shin angles, allowing him to get lower and use his shoulder as a lever to manufacture space.

Furphy doesn’t create his advantages on drives in orthodox ways using burst, it’s a pure combination of lower-half flexibility and strength. When he can get deep in the paint, his explosive last stride, touch off the glass, and length help him finish these drives. The problem is what happens in between those two events.

His handle limits so much of his drives, unable to react effectively to stunts and digs, causing him to gather extremely early on drives and rely on his last stride and touch. Furphy has to look at his handle consistently on drives too, which is another reason why he’s slow to react to help with his handle.

Similar to freshmen Bane in that way, it isn’t a death sentence to Furphy’s upside as a creator. Like Bane, he has tools that will help him work the handle issues in NBA margins. Furphy has already added handle counters like deceleration, behind-the-back crossovers, and jabs out of triple-threat situations in the past year. What he needs to work on is his ball control, introducing more changes of direction and different stride lengths to freeze defenders, all things he’s capable of athletically with improved lower body strength.

When lack of space is the constraint given to Furphy’s handle, his issues there become far more emphatic but in transition, he’s able to problem-solve with his handle in space and bring the ball up the floor functionally.

As someone who can grab an offensive rebound or create a steal by getting into passing lanes, Furphy’s aggression in transition offense while being able to weaponize his feel and touch from the three levels of the court gives Furphy a unique intersection of skills on the court. Skills that thrive off of each other, enabling him to carve a role early regardless of competition.

Furphy’s Role Malleability

A lack of experience would have faltered most young players when it comes to adapting to different roles, Furphy on the other hand has shown he can be productive in a wide range of roles. Even before he truly started playing high levels of competition, Furphy was able to relatively master transition offense due to his background in another invasion sport, Australian rules football. Gaining reps where you have to cover massive amounts of ground over a gigantic field gave Furphy the offensive skills to be aggressive in space. As a contact-heavy sport, this is where Furphy’s functional strength comes from as well because he would have to consistently absorb contact and finish plays in football.

As he gained more opportunities to play basketball after his growth spurt, Furphy was put in a number of offensive roles throughout various levels of competition. Playing mostly off-the-ball early on, he honed his off-ball feel and scoring in those roles which eventually allowed him to start running second-side pick-and-rolls when the primary action failed. Experience polished his skills, allowing him to eventually run pick-and-rolls as the primary ball-handler in limited reps. This forms a parallel with how Franz Wagner would often adapt effectively to various off-ball roles at the same age, but when he was used as the primary pick-and-roll handler he was still productive in those limited reps (fifteen possessions) in his final year with ALBA Berlin. Similarly, whether it was game to game or possession to possession, Furphy’s productivity in multiple roles was apparent.

Are there any areas where he has not been productive? I haven’t spoken about Furphy’s defense yet but there is a reason for that. College teams have consistently attacked Furphy in space since he’s been hit-or-miss when it comes to containing drives. Furphy also has issues navigating screens as a bigger player but I believe there is a common reason for both.

You guessed it, it’s lower body strength. Due to his lack of strength, he’s unable to get low enough in defensive positioning and stay with players laterally. This also limits him in screen navigation as he’s unable to get low enough, turn the corner, and explode back into the play. Furphy is role-versatile when it comes to defense but I would not say he is malleable enough in this area. He can play a multitude of roles on this end, whether it’s at the point of attack, in gaps, or even some deterrence at the rim but he does not truly thrive in any of these roles outside of being a nail defender. There is some low-hanging fruit with the lower half development, allowing him to become more stable on closeouts and stay laterally with offensive players, but his ceiling on the defensive end is dependent on the degree of strength he’s able to add.

Regardless of the defense, Furphy has been extremely productive in a scaled off-ball role at Kansas. Playing in a high-major system like Kansas, there are far fewer on-ball flashes for Furphy in this role. Due to how their system operates, I believe Kansas would rather Furphy use his gravity on the perimeter to space the floor and do not want him to drive more in their half-court offense with creators like Kevin Mccullar able to take on that offensive load.

The important part here, in the context of Furphy’s projection, is that he has been productive in the role that he’s been given.

This did not mean the development process ended, in fact with more complex problems to solve in a comfortable role, Furphy has been able to add micro-skills to meet his new constraints. One of these micro-skills is baiting fouls when he’s finishing a play. He’s been far more effective at selling contact in these possessions and that is apparent from his 42.9 free-throw-rate. In pre-college samples that same free throw rate was consistently in the sub-thirty range.

Conclusion

While I believe Furphy will be a good NBA player in most contexts, like most prospects, reaching his upper-end outcomes as a creator will need an optimal development environment. An NBA team with cemented creators and a DHO big will enable that team to leverage Furphy’s off-ball value early on. The creators can help his handle limitations stand out less, while a DHO big will find him on cuts and in handoffs as a shooter. Letting Furphy become comfortable at the NBA level will then open up his creation pathways. There is a case that Furphy’s intersection of skills will allow him to develop his handle as an off-the-catch scorer, attacking tilted defenses like Desmond Bane did with the Grizzlies early on. This should give him the time off the court and the space on the court to fix the weaker links in his chain of skills.

The skill intersection, the ability to play on and off the ball, and his current development curve give Furphy the ability to scale to most basketball contexts with the ability to take on more of a workload as a creator when experience builds up.

He’s a false ceiling prospect for these very reasons. In most draft classes, a young dribble-pass-shoot wing with the potential for above-average defense would justifiably be a top-10 pick. In a class, where that archetype is not only rare but the top of the draft is wide open, I believe it is justified to take Johnny Furphy with a top-5 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

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