Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.

A few weeks ago, while going from bar to apartment to inevitably discuss cryptids and antigravity technology, an idea was born. My friend (who I will not name, but he knows who he is) and I turned our discussion to basketball, as we are wont to do, and the conversation brought up an interesting thought: what are the side effects of guarding Steph Curry?

With the end of the regular season rapidly approaching, I wanted to explore the possibilities while using the playoffs as the ideal frame of reference. And one very interesting thought stuck with me the whole time, so I solved it the only way I know how: hunkering over my laptop, poring over stats, tracking figures, and film going back to 2018.

The question I want to solve is: What is the cost to a player’s offense who is guarding Steph Curry?

This graph was the end result in my mind’s eye (made real by our amazing editor Matt) but there was far, far more under the surface than I anticipated.

The Theory

It’s no secret that Steph is one of the most active players around, running people ragged around the court both on and off the ball. But it’s important to put some numbers behind conventional wisdom. For the purposes of this article, since defensive tracking numbers only go back to the 2017/18 playoffs, we will use the last four playoff runs as our data.

One clear theme emerges from Steph’s past playoff runs: a gradual buildup in activity as the games become more intense. In 17/18, after missing the first round with injury, Steph moved 2.43 miles per game in the conference semifinals against New Orleans. He increased that to 2.8 miles in the conference finals (first among all players) with 1.53 offensive miles, the second-highest figure. He ratcheted that up to 2.95 miles in the Finals against Cleveland, ranking first in total and offensive miles run. It wasn’t even close. All four guards who managed to beat Steph’s 2.74 MPG mark for the whole playoffs were far younger.

The story was the same in 2018-19. He went from 2.56 miles in the first round to 2.82 in the second, then 2.9 miles in the conference finals against Portland before racking up an absurd 3.13 miles per game against Toronto in the Finals. That was the hardest Steph has worked in a single playoff series, and it resulted in a 3rd overall finish in miles per game for the entire playoffs. Once again, the guards who finished ahead (Klay Thompson and CJ McCollum, who was guarding Steph often) were much younger at the time.

He saw a slight fluctuation in numbers for the 2021-22 playoffs, posting his highest MPG mark in the conference semis against Memphis and another high figure in the Finals against Boston. The overall movement for the entire run was not as elite, finishing 16th overall amongst guards, but every player ahead of him was (you guessed it) younger.

In the Warriors’ first-round series against the Kings, Steph ran the Kings’ perimeter defenders into the ground. His 1.73 offensive miles per game ranked first amongst all players, punishing Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell, and Keegan Murray, his three primary defenders. This insane level of movement not only contributed to his bananas 33.7 points per game, but it also led to some pretty drastic effects on the Sacramento offense as a result.

Season-By-Season

The effects of that level of intense defensive focus have tangible effects on their offense. I charted the 3 defenders on Sacramento who saw more than 15 minutes of time guarding Steph and compared their shooting figures to the rest of the team in the playoffs and their own regular season numbers. It seems there is at least some statistical evidence that guarding the toughest cover in basketball was sapping the energy needed to contribute on offense, as you can see below:

Even when accounting for the dip in shooting numbers for the playoffs, the dip in team-relative true shooting percentage only increased with more possessions spent guarding Steph. But a single series does not a conclusion make, so I had to go back further to check this theory before making any definitive conclusions.

2021/22 Stats

The numbers only become more interesting when adding more data. Some players certainly did not have major dropoffs, but some of these can also be explained by the overall success of the team.

Monte Morris, Desmond Bane, and Dorian Finney-Smith certainly stand out as positives, contrary to the theory. 5/8 defenders seeing a team-relative dip doesn’t point to a definitive conclusion, but good ol’ variance has to be taken into account. It’s also worth pointing out that the dips tend to outweigh the peaks: the biggest TS% dips outweigh the increases, pointing to the possibility that they hold the stronger variance and that another element (like Steph’s effort – Stephort?) is at work.

Going back to the distance run numbers is important for these series. The two highest marks of distance ran offensively came in the Boston and Memphis matchups, where all but Desmond Bane (far and away the best offensive player on this list) saw a drop. In his lower-effort matchups, only half of his defenders saw a dip. Again, not empirical evidence, but it points to something beneath the surface we cannot yet quantify.

2018-19 Stats

This is where things start to get muddier, but point to an overall direction of the theory.

Going through these numbers pointed to the heightened variance of the playoffs. His 2.9 miles per game led to CJ McCollum being the highest-movement player in the entire Conference Finals, leading to a -6.0% rTS and a four-game sweep. Yet his movement only became heightened in the Finals but seemed to have no effect on Fred VanVleet. It’s easy to chalk this up to his new-dad strength (especially considering how Danny Green’s production suffered as the #1 Steph defender) but it also reminds us that even if you’re dog tired and chucking up late shotclock rainbows, they can still find the bottom of the net. It also pointed to a difference in production based on the offensive archetype of the player (which we will get into soon).

2017-18 Stats

Perhaps the most clear and obvious case comes in the 2017-18 season. Coming off an early injury that cost him the opening round of the playoffs, he was a rather lackluster mover against the New Orleans Pelicans in the conference semifinals before ramping up to insane levels against Houston and Cleveland to close out his third championship. And the numbers correlate directly to the offensive production of those guarding him.

Moore had the easiest assignment in terms of offensive movement, and it’s no surprise he posted a +10% rTS given Steph’s physical limitations. Trevor Ariza did not have that easy of a time in the conference finals, contending with the most minutes guarding Steph of any player that tracking data shows. He was absolutely gassed, and it was certainly a factor in his scoreless, 0/12 shooting performance in Game 7. The Rockets, short on other defenders, were forced to put Harden on Steph and the Beard lost some of his elite production. Gerald Green certainly fared better than Ariza but suffered as well.

Steph followed up this performance by running J.R. Smith into the ground with 2.95 miles per game over a four-game sweep, and his -11% rTS somehow beat Ariza for the worst shooting of any Steph defender in that run. Only Kevin Huerter and Dillon Brooks have managed to outdo (feels like the wrong word) his abysmal offensive series.

In the end, there is a compelling statistical case that guarding Steph has a blanket offensive effect. These players on average posted an eFG% 2.34% below the playoff average for that season and a -3.52% rTS. You could argue this is due to the nature of the players being defense-first, or the Warriors’ playoff defense. Though the team-relative rTS% figures dispel the second notion, there is something to be said about the kind of player who is guarding Steph. How does their role on offense change these effects?

Archetype Buckets

I sorted all of these defenders into three overall buckets: primary creators, secondary creators, and off-ball guards/wings. This bears out some very interesting data.

Only two true primaries have guarded Steph for heavy minutes over these past four playoff runs. Both suffered the same fate in terms of decreased production.

It stands to reason that taking minutes against the toughest guard to cover in the game while shouldering the offensive load is not a good mix, and the numbers confirm that. What is interesting is when you get to the secondary creators, which brings team philosophy into the equation.

4/5 seeing increased production is statistically significant, and warrants further discussion. The decrease in primary production and increased secondary are tied to Golden State’s defensive philosophy: shut off the #1 option and make everyone else beat you. In this case, some of these players managed to punish decreased coverage while shouldering the Steph load on defense, which is incredibly impressive, and this is an impressive list of secondaries. It may also explain why both primaries saw large drops.

But the meat of the players are just off-ball guys, and the results were predictably all over the place.

In the aggregate, these off-ball players posted a collective -2.14 rTS%. It may not be statistically significant given the variance of outside shooting, especially in the playoffs, but falls in line with the overall -3.52 rTS%. The six highest-activity Steph series across this time period also correlated to five of the six worst shooting marks; only Danny Green managed to stay close to normal. Kevin Huerter, Dillon Brooks, Derrick White, Trevor Ariza, and J.R. Smith were all direct victims of his unfathomable cardio level. I have a hard time explaining how those drastically below-average shooting marks follow his highest activity series other than this: the original hypothesis does have some merit.

The more Steph wears you down with his offense, the more your offense will suffer.

So, what do we do with this information?

Final Numbers and Conclusion

Though this is far above my pay grade to spit out a final R-value, as the data is far too subjective and variable in nature, conclusions can certainly be drawn.

It’s patently clear that nobody has placed primaries on Steph since 2018 for a reason. The increase in production for secondary creators is also of interest: with the upcoming series against the Lakers, Curry will see a lot of Austin Reaves and Dennis Schröder, both relied upon for secondary creation. I will be closely watching their production to add more data to the set, and we will see if they reinforce the case for them as the ideal matchup for the defending team or fall back to average. The overall numbers for off-ball wings seem to point towards a tangible effect, especially considering the awful numbers for the players subject to his highest-activity series.

What’s also clear to me is that though an average number is hard to place, let alone a predictive figure, there is a measured offensive slowdown for those asked to guard Steph. Not only is he dropping 30 on their heads more often than not, but he also saps the energy of those trying their damndest to slow him. It would seem to behoove teams to put their lowest-activity/importance offensive players on Steph as a tiebreaker over other defenders who play less of a role (ex. Lakers using Jarred Vanderbilt over Reaves/Schröder)

In fact, the relative numbers were down for his defenders in three of the last four playoff runs, and only Fred VanVleet’s absurd dad strength could keep that mark from being 4/4. That sounds pretty tangible to me.

After a scorching first round, let’s see how many miles Steph posts against the Lakers. If he’s anywhere close to 3 miles per game, they are in huuuuuge trouble.

The post The Hidden Cost of Guarding Steph Curry appeared first on Swish Theory.