The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Conference Semifinals

East Round 2, Series 1: Team Gannon vs. Team Josh A.

#1 Seed – Team Gannon

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Porter (aka TrillBro)’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Gannon 3

First off. These teams are built extremely well around their star players. I love that the Harden team is filled with switchable defenders who all can either spot up or create their own shot in a pinch. If this team were built around peak James Harden (2017-2020) I think it would be virtually unstoppable. Also thank you for giving me some PTSD from previous Sixers playoff series – mainly the old Celtics series – where an Embiid team has to matchup with a wing heavy two way team that can cause him nightmares. This team is certainly more balanced if you are looking to build a two way force in a playoff setting. Defensively this team would be a nightmare to score against – especially if Evan Mobley is able to stay out of foul trouble – but their main weakness to me is that they would not be able to apply the rim pressure that a prime Harden team would provide. 

As a Sixers fan .. the Embiid team is also a dream. While they might have some limited two way players (DFS on offense, Garland on defense) they all fit around Embiid like a glove and really build on his strengths. Garland is the exact kind of guard that will thrive with Embiid. He can run actions in the pick and roll to get Embiid the ball in his spots, he also can thrive off the ball running DHOs with Embiid or spotting up when Embiid has the ball in the post. As a vertical spacer and rebounder, Robert Williams provides the exact dunker spot threat that the Sixers are currently missing. DFS in the corners is also money. While this team might be exposed in drop coverage if you can involve Garland and Embiid in actions on the perimeter you would have four elite team defenders in the starting lineup (and two other rim protectors) that could make up for this weakness. Offensively I could see this team becoming a bit stagnant if Garland and Embiid’s shots are not falling but Embiid will living at the line, while also putting Evan Mobley deep in foul trouble early and often, and Garland’s playmaking and shot making combination should be enough to carry the load 

Ultimately this comes down to what do you want more? A team with a true superstar that has or a team with more two way versatility and shooting at every position. Maybe I am biased as a Sixers fan here but I think that Joel Embiid is the best player in the series by a fairly wide margin – and while he has had some playoff shortcomings in the past – this is the best version of him and this team would be a nearly perfect combination of star power and role players to highlight his strengths. Offensively I believe this gives them a massive advantage over any team that does not a surefire number one option.Mikal Bridges recent star leap is an interesting wrinkle but against a great playoff defense I am not sure if we can expect him to provide the same level of production that he has provided over the last 25-30 games as the number option in Brooklyn. If you could rewind Harden by 3-5 years when he provided more rim pressure or even fast forward Evan Mobley 3 years when he will be stronger for the Embiid matchup (not that one person can stop Embiid but you need to have a baseline level of strength) and more developed offensively, this series would probably swing in the other direction. 

East Round 2, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Will

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Ian Levy Decision: Team Will 4, Team Oscar 2

Team Oscar has a lot of advantages on the perimeter and homecourt advantage implies that they’re coming into this series as the higher seed and favorite. But I think Giannis would present a unique challenge (as he does in the real world, with literally every team), even if Grant Williams has historically done a decent job on him. 

With Team Will basically replicating Milwaukee’s formidable defensive frontcourt, I think they can handle the multiple creators on Team Oscar, and happily live with a lot of contested mid-range jumpers from Butler and Brown. I also imagine Team Will would have a fairly significant edge on the glass, which would be a meaningful advantage at both ends.

I don’t think this is a blowout series, I think there are a lot of close games. But Team Will’s defense holding up and Giannis manifesting his will around the basket is the difference.

West Round 2, Series 1: Team Sajdak vs. Team Tyler

#1 Seed – Team Sajdak

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent. 

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

vs. #4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

Todd Whitehead’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Sajdak 1

Team Sajdak looks a lot like last year’s Memphis Grizzlies team, just with absolutely none of the vibes. Imagine if the 2022 NBA Executive of the Year, Zach Kleiman, decided to orchestrate a multi-team deal that cut ties with Memphis’ beloved, homegrown core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke in exchange for the obviously talented but sometimes prickly trio of Irving, Towns, and Hardaway and then, as the playoffs were getting started, he decided to just rip out whatever was left of the heart of his team by handing over Brooks and Adams to his opponent, totally gratis. That’s basically what this series is! 

I have an app that takes a hypothetical 5-man lineup and tries to spit out the real NBA lineups that look most similar to it. I fed it the proposed lineup of Irving, Hardaway, Anderson, Jackson, and Towns and it started smoking and the message it returned just said “FUNKY”. The simple fact is that there are not a lot of frontcourts that look as #funky and #weird as this one. Interestingly, there are several current and former teammate pairs in this series and Anderson has played real-life minutes with both Jackson and Towns. But could all three of them work together? In the previous two seasons in Memphis, Anderson rarely shared the court with Jackson and the minutes those two played alongside another big (Adams, Clarke, or Jonas Valanciunas) were net negative. Likewise, the trio of Anderson, Towns, and Gobert have rarely played at the same time this season in Minnesota, and the minutes they have shared have been a minus. Of course, the dual-stretchiness of Towns and Jackson would add a different dimension to this frontcourt which wasn’t available in Memphis or Minnesota, so maybe the spacing would be fine, but I remain a little skeptical.

Team Tyler, on the other hand, is like a Frankenstein monster of pieces of the best teams in the West. We know, empirically, that these players can (and do) pair nicely together: lineups with Durant and Paul are +15 points per 100 possessions in Phoenix this season, Murray and Gordon are +12 in Denver, and Brooks and Adams are +11 in Memphis. Moreover, Durant, Paul, and Murray have all proven in recent years that they can thrive as both primary or complementary options on offense. Over their last three healthy seasons, each of these stars has taken at least 200 spot-up threes, making 45, 41, and 43% of them, respectively. Toss in DiVincenzo – who has made 42% of his own 299 spot-up threes over the last three years – and Team Tyler is going to have plenty of ways to stretch opposing defenses. They will be able to attack with multiple weapons and should be able to do more than just “take turns” trying to score.

In terms of matchups, I don’t see any real issues for Team Tyler. Stevens can hold his own on Towns, Gordon can guard Jackson, Durant can matchup with Anderson and take some liberties in helping out around the rim, Murray can be stashed on Hardaway, and Paul should give Irving a stiff challenge. Having the ability to mix in Brooks or DiVincenzo is a nice bonus, allowing Team Tyler to throw a different look at any shooters from Team Sajdak who happen to get hot. On the flip side, I’d say the biggest question marks will be – who is Irving going to guard from Team Tyler? And can Slo Mo slow down KD enough to keep it interesting? In my opinion, Team Tyler rolls. 

West Round 2, Series 2: Team Neema vs. Team Corban

#2. Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #6. Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Joe Viray’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Corban 3

This was a pretty difficult decision for me because I think both teams have extremely viable arguments for winning a series against each other. On one hand, Team Neema has, in my opinion, the perfect combination of defensive versatility and offensive juice to power through just about any team that’s put in front of it. On the other hand, Team Corban has what Luka Doncic has always needed: shooters, and not just the league-average kind – I mean, bona fide SHOOTERS. Coupled with just enough defensive help, it can also power through almost any team you put in front of it.

However, what makes me choose Team Neema in a close series win is how perfectly built it is to take advantage of it’s one main strength: pace. In order to beat teams with pace, you need to catch opposing defenses on the back foot constantly. How do you do that? You make sure not to take the ball out of the basket as much as possible – and you do that with tough, hard-nosed defense, which this team has in spades. Compared to Team Corban, Team Neema also has much more rebounding talent, which will be important for them to immediately trigger the break. Ja Morant is the perfect point guard to play such an uptempo style. The wing trio of Wiggins, Porter, and Edwards is a unique blend of length, wing defense, and a powder keg that can provide explosive offense. Gary Payton II is an absolute hound and can make life difficult for any opposing ball handler. Looney and Clarke provide the hustle on the boards.

Ultimately, I think Team Neema may be a bit too much for Team Corban and its lack of athleticism beyond Jonathan Kuminga and lack of rim protection/deterrence beyond Draymond Green. Relentless rim pressure, dogged defense, and constant uptempo basketball will tire Team Corban out, especially Luka, who thrives in the deliberate nature of the half-court game but may be forced to sprint constantly against such an athletic team. Which is why I think Team Corban will eventually run out of gas as the series progresses. Team Neema takes it all the way.

Eastern Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Larro vs. Team Josh A.

#4 Seed – Team Larro

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Steph Noh’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Larro 2

Team Josh A. is going to take this one down in 6 games. The NBA is a star-driven league. As good as Donovan Mitchell has been, Joel Embiid is a tier above him. Embiid is going to be able to carry Team Josh A. in this matchup. 

In fairness to Team Larro, Embiid has struggled against the Cavs this season. Struggling for him though is still scoring 28 per game on 60 percent true shooting. And while Team Larro has Jarrett Allen, a great defender, to put on Embiid, Embiid is going to eat Kevin Love alive in the minutes where Allen sits. 

Team Larro also has Darius Garland, who has had one of the more underrated seasons in the league and been overshadowed by Mitchell’s superb year. Garland can help spread the floor for Embiid and set the big man up with his great court vision. 

Mitchell is liable to go off for a big number in this game. He’s averaged 37.5 points per game across four contests with the Celtics this season. But the spacing on that team is going to be iffy, with Smart and Crowder both streaky shooters and Jarrett Allen a non-shooter. Love and Grayson Allen could help alleviate some of those spacing issues, but Love is going to be tough to play in this series because of that Garland-Embiid pick-and-roll.

Round 1, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Josh U.

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #6 Seed – Josh U.

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

Samson Folk’s Decision: Team Oscar 4, Team Josh U. 2

So, my initial lean is that Team Oscar wins in 6 games. Tatum is the best player here, no doubt, but I do think that Team Josh U.’s offense could be greatly affected by an aggressive gameplan to overload on him. Grimes, Brogdon, Herro, all impressive players in their own right, and with Herro obviously being able to scale up as a primary creator for stretches. Blitz Tatum, and I’m fairly confident that over the course of the series that Team Oscar will be able to delete the dangerous areas on the floor and zone up the big areas often enough to move them into the deep shot clock. For posterity, I’m assuming that the talent on top teams has flattened out because of a fantasy draft, but I also think that Team 1 will be more limited in their offensive counters than Team 2 will be. 

Obviously Brown has some off-ball defense warts, but I think you can have a lot of fun by using him as Tatum’s primary defender. I also think that Team Oscar eventually swaps Williams and Harris – to a positive effect. 

I think Team Josh U. is going to have a Maxey problem. He can easily work off of either of Butler or Brown, and when it comes to punching gaps afforded by his fellow stars, Maxey can be the elite play finisher at all 3 levels and he can make progressive passing reads out of them. With Butler and Brown ready to collapse the defense at any point in time, that’s good eating. Butler is also uniquely gifted among wings when it comes to creating for bigs, and I think that creates the potential for a couple big games from Robinson. 

Considering how much switching would go on in this series, and the mobility on both sides, this series would probably be extremely fun to watch.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Pow vs. Team Will

#2 Seed – Team Pow

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Rob Schaefer Decision: Team Will 4, Team Pow 2

I landed on six games because this would be a highly-competitive matchup, but when picking an upset, it’s always more likely the underdog will close it out on their home floor.

As for the reasons for leaning towards Team 2: I certainly see the specter of a highly versatile defense with Bam Adebayo and Al Horford in the frontcourt and Jrue Holiday the head of the snake on the perimeter. And the isolation shot creation up and down the rotation is intriguing in close games.

What concerns me is Team 1’s offensive upside. Holiday and Quickley’s pull-up shooting could certainly foil what I imagine will be a drop-heavy scheme between Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Portis. But over the course of a seven-game series, I’m banking on Antetokounmpo and Lopez winning the math equation for Team 2 by erasing the painted area and mitigating the pressure points that Dinwiddie and Brunson defending at the point of attack could present. I foresee the ball sticking a bit for Team 1, which plays to their isolation strengths, but could also bog them down against such a proven defensive formula.

Antetokounmpo, of course, is also the best player in this hypothetical series by leaps and bounds. Adebayo and Horford have both been as effective as one could ask for in checking the Greek Freak in the past. I’m just wanting for different players than Thomas or Barrett off the bench for Team 1 that would be more reliable ball-movers, floor-spacers and defenders. I think Team 2 has a few more ways to adjust over the course of a seven-game series by, say, sliding Antetokounmpo to the 5 and Portis to the 4, or inserting Hauser (who’s no defensive liability) for Brunson, Dinwiddie or Hart if knockdown spot-up shooting is needed.

It would be close. It would be back-and-forth. But so says my gut.

Western Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Tyler vs. Team Avinash

#4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

vs. #5 Seed – Team Avinash

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

Shamit Dua’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Avinash 1

Normally when evaluating teams, I am looking at size, creation, and shooting. In this situation the creation and shooting of Team Tyler far exceeds the size advantages of Team Avinash. On a surface, the team starting those two bigs is going to cede significant ground on battle behind the 3 point line and when the game slows down, I do believe Team Avinash will have to decide between one of the two bigs to deploy during crunch time.

Zooming in a little bit, Team Tyler having home court advantage cannot be overlooked. Teams are 516-714 on the road this season. In addition, having the ability to deploy complimentary players around Kevin Durant at all positions is a great boon. Steven Adams, one of the league’s strongest bigs, matches up with Jokic in the post quite well. Meanwhile, this frees one of Kevin Durant or Aaron Gordon to roam off of Rudy Gobert. The reverse can also be true – Team Tyler can attach Aaron Gordon to Jokic and double with Adams off of Gobert. There is more lineup versatility on Tyler Tyler on both ends of the ball.

Meanwhile, the ability to deploy Brooks and Divincenzo at the point of attack greatly slows Team Avinash’s secondary creation options behind Jokic. Mike Conley seems to have found a similar fountain of youth that Chris Paul has, but as a grueling series goes forward, team 1’s ability to lean on Jamal Murray is a greater advantage than Jordan Poole.

Ultimately, I really do like the idea of Team Avinash, this just seems to be the worst possible matchup for them. The lack of size on the wing will significantly impact their ability to defend Kevin Durant – especially once team 1 goes “small” and spaces the bigs out. Frankly, a lineup of Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Dillon Brooks, Kevin Durant, and Aaron Gordon is terrifying.

I have Team Avinash winning one of their home games because Jokic is THAT good and I do believe this team is capable of winning the possession battle via rebounds and free throws, but I do not see a competitive series unfolding.

Round 1, Series 2: Team AJ vs. Team Corban

#3 Seed – Team AJ

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

vs. #6 Seed – Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Ricky O’Donnell’s Decision: Team Corban 4, Team AJ 2

I felt confident about a Team Corban victory initially, but questioned myself the more I thought about it. Ultimately, I’m going with Team Corban for a few reasons: 1) Luka is the best player in the series, 2) there’s a spot for him to hide defensive (on Bullock), 3) the Monk/Klay/Keegan contingent can bomb threes with volume and get out to a lead that will be very difficult for Team AJ to wipe away given their lack of volume shooting, and 4) I fully believe in Draymond’s ability to solve problems as they present themselves. 

I am a bit scared of the lack of defensive interior depth on Team Corban as I don’t believe in Wood’s ability to impact a playoff series much, but it’s possible Kuminga can even handle some small-ball five minutes and blitz more pick-and-rolls. I love the Brown-Kleber bench for Team AJ and the defensive versatility it gives them. The swing factor in this series is Klay’s ability to guard Fox – I cautiously think he’s up for it but ideally you have a better POA defender around. I have no idea who the Booker matchup is here, but I think Keegan and Kuminga at least have the size to slow him down, and I’m not sold on Booker hitting the gas to burn them to the cup.  Ultimately I think Luka surrounded by such great shooting is just too much, and Draymond can magically fix most of what ails this team defensively.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Neema vs. Team Charlie

#2 Seed – Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #7 Seed – Team Charlie

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

SJ’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Charlie 2

I chose Team Neema to win in a playoff series because I believe they have a better mix of  shooting, defense, rebounding and rim pressure than Team Charlie. While Anthony Edwards is an inconsistent defender, it’s mainly due to effort. With that being said, I like him and Andrew Wiggins on the wings defending with Kevon Looney manning the middle. They also have good POA defense with GP2 coming off the bench. Team Charlie’s shooting will win them a few games but Team Neema will ultimately win the series because of their defense and rebounding. Sabonis is the best rebounder when looking at both teams but Team Neema overall has a collection of better rebounders than Team Charlie.

I acknowledge (and so do you) that there are defensive schemes where both Sabonis and Naz Reid could look decent on defense but Team Charlie’s offense will be their biggest strength on defense. In a playoff setting I am usually wary of teams like this, especially given that I think Team Neema has the tools to exploit the weak defenders on Team Charlie. My biggest concern regarding Team Neema is their lack of playmaking. I think in this hypothetical universe if they did play and lose, it would’ve been because of the lack of playmaking. Team Charlie has 3-4 positive playmakers that can keep the ball moving which is definitely a strength of their team in addition to the shooting. The playoffs is *typically* a halfcourt game and Team Charlie definitely has the edge in the halfcourt because of this but coaching could mitigate some of the halfcourt concerns I have about Team Neema. 

Overall, I am more partial to defense and rebounding in the playoffs and I think lineup versatility is becoming more valuable which is why I went with Team Neema.

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The upcoming series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks is projected to be one of the closer ones. In this series, I do schematic deep dives on either team, and explore the hypothetical questions that I believe to be the key points of interest for the opponents.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Scheme

Empty Side

The Cavaliers run a three-out two-in offense with heavy motion from their guards. They push empty side pick-and-rolls as much as any other team in the NBA. They’ll push these early in transition.

Part of optimising their two inside big men is by rotating them as the empty side screener, though you’re more than likely going to see Mobley as the screener and Jarrett Allen in the dunker spot when they run this. Their overall philosophy in early offense is optional ball screens, giving Mitchell and Garland structure but not robbing them of freedom. The presence of Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot gives them easy buckets if the defense is collapsed. He’s in the 90^th percentile for half-court scoring efficiency.

Wedge Action

One of the Cavs’ most common actions out of their base offense is running wedge actions. This is simply an angled screen to the baseline. They run these for Evan Mobley to give him a chance to post-up or attack off the catch. Here they run Wedge Action to generate a look for Evan Mobley. He turns the ball over on this play (I’ll get to those issues later), but they get him in space on an empty side with ease.

The Cavaliers don’t do this as a one-shot type play though, they have many other options and counters from it. Here they run ‘wedge roll’ which is as it sounds. They then flow straight into a pick-and-roll.

Sometimes the mere threat of the option is enough to give them more cushion on pick-and-rolls. Here Darius Garland flows straight into a pick-and-roll and essentially ignores Okoro attempting to set the wedge screen for Allen, with the help defense occupied by the potential of this action.

Teams are hyper aware of the Cavaliers’ wedge actions and they fear them because empty side actions are the main way they try and ease spacing concerns. The play below illustrates a nice counter the Cavs have for it.

You see the Pacers sitting under Okoro for two reasons. One is because they don’t really respect him as a shooter, but the premiere reason is that they expect the wedge roll action to come. Garland sees this and pitches it to Mobley and Okoro screens Garland’s man as they flow into Delay Chicago action. It’s great offense and shows JB Bickerstaff’s attention to detail.

Flex and Rip Concepts

I’ve labelled this “flex concepts” because the Cavs don’t run the entirety of the flex offense, but they like to move their guards through the paint in screen-the-screener type actions which is the absolute epitome of what the flex offense is all about.

On this play, the Cavaliers don’t create an advantage out of the wedge action I mentioned above…

…so they pitch to the screener and go into a pick-and-roll with Darius Garland eventually setting a flex screen to get Evan Mobley to the low block. They initially didn’t get Mobley good post position but showed a multi-faceted approach to get it on a counter.

Such things don’t exist in Basketball analysis to my knowledge, but if there was a heat map that tracked players movements, I’m almost certain that the Cavaliers guards would touch the paint off-ball more than any other team due to their flex and rip concepts. These guards are deployed off-ball moving through the paint very regularly.

I enjoyed this play shown below.

They pitch to Isaac Okoro, but watch Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They flow into an initial ‘floppy’ action (a double screen set for someone to emerge from the paint). After it doesn’t get an opening, Garland cuts to the other side on the flex scissors action and Okoro hits Evan Mobley for the dunk.

If one play summarised Cleveland’s Philosophy it’s this: these guards work for their touches out of flex concepts. This ties in with Bickerstaff’s overall philosophy. He loves the chin offense which is why he’s a perfect fit to coach a team with two bigs.

They often run these plays to try and alleviate spacing concerns. Mobley-Allen isn’t a great perimeter spacing duo as of now. So basic spread concepts aren’t really going to reap rewards. Here the Cavaliers run some flex action before flowing into an empty side pick and roll.

If you’re trying to get a big line-up to work, your guards have to do their due diligence off the ball as you ideally want to maximise the big men as elbow hubs. The Cavaliers do a great job of this when they run ‘Rip’ Action such as below. Rip action is merely a player back screening then receiving the ball.

With Ricky Rubio healthy, these sets have even more of a ceiling for the Cavaliers because his processing speed is borderline generational. Here they set up a Cross Screen for Lamar Stevens and Donovan Mitchell comes off a pindown after setting the cross screen, but Rubio sees the defense tilt away from Caris Levert in the corner and they get an easy look.

Pistol

Any team with two elite guards is going to run pistol action. While I wouldn’t call this Cleveland’s absolute staple, it’s another way they can create empty side actions and give high value touches to their lead guards. Below is the absolute most basic luck and their typical structure out of it.

Both of their lead guards in the same action. They go into a pick-and-roll. The opposite side spacing has their small forward and then Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot. They bail out to him on this play and he hits the floater. He’s in the 62^nd percentile for efficiency on these shots so it will be intriguing if teams live with this one and possibly sell out elsewhere.

They also use pistol to flow into delay action and to generate empty side actions like in the play below.

They look as if they’re going to flow into Delay Chicago after the initial pistol exchange. Instead, Levert cuts all the way to the weakside and they go into an empty-side pick and roll. Teams often blitz these so Mobley’s rolling can be highly fruitful on these actions.

Here things get a little more exotic, as they run Pistol Rip Empty Hawk.

Garland receives the ball from Mitchell. Mobley backscreens for Mitchell then comes up to set the screen (this creates the same advantage as ram action). They flow into an empty-side pick and roll and Mitchell cuts through the paint and comes off a double stagger which is Hawk action. It’s another illustration of Cavs guards moving off-ball, but also creating empty side actions out of multiple scenarios.

They run the same play against the Blazers here. This time Garland dribbles towards the empty side when he sees Nurkic in drop. The Hawk action occupies the defense and Garland scores the layup.

They also mix some ‘veer’ action into their pistol offense. This involves a screen for a ball handler, with the screener then darting elsewhere to set an off-ball screen in the same action or motion. Here they run it against the Orlando Magic.

On this occasion they do it to try and attack Bol Bol on the empty side pick-and-roll with a step up screen. Sometimes though they just do it to free up a shooter and create an advantage for Garland or Mitchell such as here.

Good offenses mesh all of their concepts together. I noted earlier how the Cavs like to use their guards on flex and rip concepts, here they tie this together with pistol.

They have the initial pistol action with Mitchell then going straight in a double drag action. This is deception for ‘rip’ action for Darius Garland who comes off a screen, then sets a backscreen of his own before darting for an open three. It’s a great example of how the Cavaliers Empty Side and Inside to out guard cutting concepts all meshing.

Ram

The Cavs also like to run ‘ram’ action, where a screener comes off a screen before screening for the ball-handler. They like to do this mixed with different secondary actions as a way of trying to freeze or occupy defenders. This is as they don’t have natural outside spacing with Mobley and Allen. They’ll often run this more against teams who play drop coverage. They run it here against the Rockets.

Mitchell is the initial screener for Jarrett Allen, and then exits to the perimeter off an Evan Mobley screen. The execution will need to be more flawless in the playoffs but the logic is to occupy the defense in a way Evan Mobley just being stationary on the perimeter wouldn’t occupy it.

They’ll often run it if they have smaller line-ups too such as here against the Orlando Magic.

This time, the exit action occupies the help defense the whole way, and Darius Garland essentially walks into an easy bucket when his man gets caught on Evan Mobley’s screen. It’s one of their most common concepts.

Here, they run a ‘small’ variant of Ram action with more inverted philosophy.

Donovan Mitchell this time receives a screen from Jarrett Allen and then Ghost Screens for Darius Garland. Allen chases it immediately and Garland once again walks into a wide-open bucket. They’ll use this ‘Ram Short 77 Ghost’ to try and force switches.

On the play below, they use it in a way that raises hypothetical questions about the action.

They have Jarrett Allen be the on-ball screener, and Evan Mobley executes ‘Short’ Action which is a cut to the strongside. Notice how it freezes the defender and Allen can get a free lane because of this as the Ram gave him some extra room at the beginning of the play.

The hypothetical question they will have to answer in the Knicks series is whether they’re better with Allen or Mobley as the on-ball screener. Allen is more likely to have Mitchell Robinson on him and he may feel comfortable playing free safety in that scenario. But Robinson is extremely disruptive at the level of the screen so having Allen as the screener might create more difficulties for the offense. They’ll likely mix things up, but this will be interesting to monitor.

My good friend Bowser also clipped another play similar to ram, known as ‘New Zealand’ Action.

This involves a ram screening action on the empty side. This may be something they go to in the playoffs if things stagnate with their more common actions.

Double Drags and Horns

Like any team trying to maximise a big frontcourt, the Cavaliers optimise Double Drags, and I think they’ll run these more in this series than usual. This is largely because a double screening action can put real strain on Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme as they prioritise defending the paint so may leave shooters open if the Cavs opt to use a guard in the action. They also quite commonly switch 4-5 so the Cavaliers may get some matchups they like. Here, they run ’77 Small’ with Donovan Mitchell ghost screening. Darius Garland then puts Dillon Brooks in the torture chamber.

The Cavaliers have done a great job mixing in these ghost screens. Here on this play against the Heat, Mitchell ghosting creates chaos.

Though the Knicks may be organised at the point of attack than Miami, they can still get beneficial switches and potentially get bigger defenders off Garland. It’s essentially they run these ‘small’ variants of double drag.

I love how high they set some of these double drag screens like they do here against Memphis.

The Cavs routinely have the second screener roll pretty quickly. Look how tough it is to defend. The Knicks will defend it in a similar way with trying to contain the drive. Expect to see the Cavs run a load of these.

As I’ve mentioned throughout this article, counters are important. On this play the Grizzlies try and get ahead of the action so Mobley rolls quickly and Darius Garland executes ‘get’ action which is receiving your own pass on a dribble handoff.

A key theoretical of the double drag comes with regards to Evan Mobley. The Knicks will almost certainly leave him open. They do with just about any popper in a double drag set. But Mobley needs to be aggressive. This is what will swing the series for Cleveland. Here against the Knicks he pops and takes Obi Toppin off the catch.

Though Toppin won’t see the floor often, it’s still an important play. He has to be willing to be decisive. Indecision kills offense more than inability at times. The Knicks will defend these double drags high and likely have Mobley’s man tag the roller. Hartenstein and Robinson will be containing the drive. He has to be decisive.

Cleveland also mixes in Horns Sets as a way of trying to keep the opposition center outside of the paint. Here they run a classic- Horns Ghost Flare.

Horns concepts are good because they can generate quick hitters for their elite guards while creating matchup problems. Using the gravity of their star guards early in actions just creates some incredible moments such as here where they mesh Horns and turn it into a Spain-Pick-And-Roll.

Spain Pick-And-Rolls are nightmarish anyway, and the Cavaliers mixing it with Horns is just excellent offense. It maximises the gravity of their guards and keeps bigs at the level. Spain PNRs can be particularly fruitful against the Knicks because it tests Tom Thibodeau’s philosophy of always having his low man tag the roller instead of defending the corner shot.

Cleveland also likes to use Ghost screens out of a Horns outline to generate favourable switches.

This will be particularly relevant in the Knicks series because Darius Garland can definitely get bothered by size, though it’s not a gigantic concern for me. Ghost screens in general are very good and they hold a big purpose for the Cavaliers.

The New York Knicks Defense

Now that I’ve looked at the Cavaliers diverse scheme, we should look at the New York Knicks defense. Per a source with Second Spectrum, the Knicks are 7th in the NBA in drop coverage frequency, and 2nd in at the level coverage. They rarely hedge or trap or play zone. They are aggressive at helping from the nail which is a staple of Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme. He prioritises defending the paint with a 5-man wall and expects his wings and guards to rotate to open shooters. The strong side defense looks something like this.

Note both corner defenders aggressively helping towards the paint. Hartenstein being up towards the level. Immanuel Quickley helping off his man to try and disrupt the roller. Some teams run teams off the three-point line with aggressive and close rotations. The Knicks escort you off of it at the top of the key then make your driving path as miserable as possible.

Here’s what the defense looks like in video form. Note how they’re in drop coverage on this occasion.

Note Julius Randle tag the roller, and then making RJ Barrett responsible for ‘splitting the difference’ between the two perimeter guys. Thibodeau’s wing defenders need to be instinctive, reactive and aggressive. Here the Knicks recover out to Darius Garland and force a shot they’re comfortable with from a structural perspective.

My general Hypothesis for this series is that empty side actions will decide the series. The Knicks love Empty Side Pick-And-Rolls for Jalen Brunson because the ‘counter punch’ out of it is baseline fadeaway jumpers, which might be Brunson’s strongest shot as his offensive ability off the planted pivot foot is elite.

Above I’ve mentioned how the Cavs love empty side actions and how the majority of their core actions can be to set up these empty side actions. It makes sense to explore how the Knicks defend these actions and ponder how fruitful they might be.

If the empty side action takes place on the right side and the screen is taking the guard towards the open side, they’ll generally be in ‘ICE Coverage’. This means they’re funnelling the play towards the sideline and essentially using the out of bounds line as an extra defender. It looks like this.

If the screen is set to the left side of the guard, the Knicks will mix up coverages. Here against the Wizards, they have Hartenstein drop so Kyle Kuzma just takes his man into the paint and hits the fadeaway.

Against the Cavaliers, empty side coverages can be complex and tricky because Garland and Mitchell are both incredibly shifty, and Allen and Mobley are such good screeners. Their ability to be unpredictable with the personnel can make a one size fits all scouting report difficult. I expect the Knicks to mix in some at the level coverages simply because Darius Garland is incredibly shifty off the dribble against drop coverage. Like what do you do with this?

Randle tries to drop and deal with Mobley, Barrett has to help away from Donovan Mitchell. Brunson isn’t active, and Jericho Sims is concerned about Jarrett Allen. Weirdly, Allen’s allergy to the perimeter can actually benefit the Cavs against Thibodeau’s strong side defense. He’s more concerned with Allen at the dunker spot than he would be with a corner shooter, philosophically.

This time, Hartenstein starts at the level of the screen. But once Garland gets a step on his man it’s close to over. Hartenstein is juggling being in the driving lane with mirroring the roll-man.

Note in this play how Quentin Grimes doesn’t really help off of Donovan Mitchell. Their approach to this will be intriguing because if you do help, even momentarily, you risk Mitchell being able to create off the catch and go like he does here. It’s generally clear though that a smaller guard on Garland without any nail help probably isn’t going to end well.

The Little Things- What the Cavaliers Can Do

Playoff series come down to micro adjustments more often than you might think. Here are a few things I think Cleveland can do to potentially make life easier for them.

The first, is setting higher screens. Given the Knicks like to be in ICE Coverage on these empty side actions, you can really cause havoc by setting the screens higher.

Note here that the entire empty side is genuinely empty. It’s because Randle has much more ground to cover in order to enforce the ‘No Middle’ ideology. Mobley also has more rolling room. I think high screens can genuinely really cause the Knicks problems in this series. I’d also attempt to get Randle and Brunson in actions as much as possible. Neither are awful defenders but they’re a step slower than their team-mates.

Here, the Cavaliers do the same with their ‘ram’ action.

Look at the gap between Grimes and his teammates before the action even happens. You could park a car in there. Mitchell makes Randle dance by faking the right drive, then makes Grimes dance before hitting the pull-up three. A good way to delegitimise nail help is to just set the action really far away from it.

Putting Donovan Mitchell or Garland in the actions as an off-ball threat should prove fruitful. I think their wedge set in particular could be a nice way to test if the Knicks want to trap. Here against Portland, the Blazers run wedge roll with Anfernee Simons setting the wedge screen for Nurkic.

Thibodeau wants to maintain structure above all else. No middle at all costs. Putting your best players in the action really tests this because your nearest help defender has to worry about a star moving off-ball. They could walk into good jump shots or just generally get the defense on the back foot with how they position guys.

Generally, I think pre-action is needed to really get at the Knicks. Make them work and force them to make quick decisions. Thibs wants teams to play slow against his defense. Something as simple as what Minnesota do here, would suffice.

The Wolves trigger the ICE Coverage with a quick pass to Mike Conley on the empty side. Gobert rolls, and when Randle tags, Conley hits Kyle Anderson who is able to manipulate the help defense to create a wide open three. Generally, forcing these nail help guys to be as reactive as possible is a good way of winning games. Generally, their target should be to get these with pre-action and higher screens.

In Summary

Overall, this might be the most interesting first round series of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavaliers offense is diverse and fluid, and the Knicks defense is really tough. Evan Mobley needs to be aggressive, and the Knicks help defense will need to be on point. The battle of the nail help defenders likely decides this series. I’m not meaning to underestimate the Knicks defense, it’s an immense unit. I just think there are ways Cleveland can attack it and that’s what I’ve tried to explore in this series. I hope you enjoyed.

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