We are in the middle of the greatest era of parity in NBA history. With the Oklahoma City Thunder crowned champions, there have been seven different Finals winners in seven years, a new record; only once have we had five consecutive new winners. The days of the superteam and big market dominance are fading as chaos rules the contender circles. Projecting who is up next feels extremely difficult.

Even after a surprise Eastern Conference Finals run, the Pacers were not expected to come within one game of a championship. And they’re not the only surprise story in recent memory. The fifth-seeded Mavericks made it through the West last year. Everyone remembers the eighth-seeded Heat making it the year before, the third-seeded Warriors the year before that, the third-seeded Bucks the year before that, and the fifth-seeded Heat the year before that.

Granted, the line of delineation is strong. Four teams seeded fourth or lower have made the finals in the past six years, and all four lost. But we came so close to the exception this year. The point is that you can’t predict the future as you used to. Penciling in the Warriors and Cavaliers is no more. A surprise Conference Finals or Finals team is waiting out there, unknown to all.

I’m here to make the case that the Atlanta Hawks are the next surprise team.

The Aerial View

Okay, breathe. If you didn’t close the tab, you’re probably still laughing at me. I get it. The Atlanta Hawks? Contenders? In the National Basketball Association? It sounds ludicrous.

How soon we forget that these Hawks came within two wins of making the Finals just four years ago, when Trae Young scored 48 points on the road in Milwaukee to steal home court advantage in Game 1 of the ECF. I don’t blame you for writing that off as a blip: assuming Clint Capela walks in free agency, only two Hawks from that team remain: Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu.

The slate has been cleaned for a new iteration of that squad. The premise back then was simple: Trae’s ability to shoulder a colossal offensive load makes life easier for all the role players, allowing them to focus on defending hard and hitting shots. That premise hasn’t changed. But it comes with a new twist.

Bayou Bailout

Before getting into the construction of this team, it’s essential to acknowledge how we’ve gotten here in the last year. At this time last year, Atlanta was coming off a 36-win season. It was the third straight year their winning percentage had declined since that ECF appearance. Dejounte Murray hadn’t made the desired impact next to Trae Young one year into a four-year, $114 million extension. Things looked dire.

Then the New Orleans Pelicans stepped in.

Dejounte Murray was shipped to the Bayou in a package that included Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, EJ Liddell, and two first-round picks. The first pick was a 2025 Lakers choice that ended up 22nd overall, the second least favorable of New Orleans and Milwaukee in 2027. The last three players are all off the roster, but Dyson Daniels is going nowhere.

He finished second in DPOY voting in his first year with the Hawks. His breakout changed Atlanta’s fortunes significantly (if only someone had seen it coming!) That alone would make the Murray trade worth it. The way Atlanta used the picks afterwards only makes it look worse for New Orleans.

At the past trade deadline, Atlanta traded Bogdan Bogdanović for Terance Mann, Bones Hyland, and three second-round picks. That left them with Mann starting his three-year, $47 million veteran extension, an overpay for a low-impact wing. Packaging Mann and Georges Niang with that 22nd pick from New Orleans landed them Kristaps Porzingis earlier this week. Now they’ve gotten two impact starters for Murray, and still have a pick in 2027 to play with.

And, it may not be the worst trade for New Orleans between the two. During the 2025 NBA Draft’s first round, the Pelicans sent a 2026 unprotected pick and the 23rd pick to the Hawks for the 13th pick. Atlanta ended up taking Georgia forward Asa Newell at 23, who they were rumored to be eyeing at 13. And now they have a pick almost sure to be a lottery choice in next year’s loaded class at the top. The Hawks still came away with a useful rotation player and now own one of the most valuable assets any playoff-hopeful team owns.

To sum it up: by trading with the Pelicans, Atlanta turned Murray and the 13th pick into Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis, Asa Newell, a 2026 unprotected New Orleans first, a 2027 first from New Orleans or Milwaukee, and a second-round pick from the Celtics. That’s the rock upon which this Hawks team is built. The fallout from these two trades will echo for these franchises throughout the next decade or more.

Offseason Additions

Kristaps Porzingis was Atlanta’s big domino. I’d be surprised if they got a bigger name or impact player. That’s no knock on Kristaps; his +3.6 EPM last season was a 96th-percentile mark. He’s been in the 96th or 97th percentile four years running. But their powder remains dry, with many avenues for addition. But more on why he is a great fit later.

Atlanta had three primary weapons at their disposal this offseason: a $25M trade exception (from the Dejounte deal – gift that keeps giving), a $13M trade exception (Bogdan deal), and the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for $14M. They used those financial weapons to make some significant additions.

First and foremost, Atlanta used the Murray exception to pick up Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I’m not saying the Hawks read my writing, but that’s two straight offseasons where they’ve picked up one of my Finding a Role breakout candidates. Hawks, I’m on to you. The terms of the sign-and-trade are window dressing to fit him into the exception. They sent a far-off second-round pick. Well worth it to add a high-level rotation player without counting against the cap.

NAW fits so perfectly into the vision Atlanta is outlining. He is a confident shooter who is lights out from the corners and is passable from above the break. While turnover-prone, he is an aggressive passer who can make reads above expectation for an off-ball wing. I love his floor sense and the way he moves around to find spots offensively. And that’s not where his value comes from.

2025 was something of a down year statistically, but he is an elite perimeter defender. NAW had 94th and 98th defensive EPM marks in 2023 and 2024. He’s one of the best screen navigators in the league and gives Atlanta another exceptional perimeter defense option alongside Dyson Daniels. Atlanta hit it out of the park getting Alexander-Walker, and they weren’t done there.

Since this deal folds into a trade exception, they retained the full mid-level exception. That gave them room to add another rotation player, and they did so in getting Luke Kennard. Part of my offseason wishlist was getting a genuine shooter; few are better than Kennard. Few players are better at high-volume above-the-break three-point shooting than Kennard. He’s not much of a defender, but Atlanta has the infrastructure to insulate him, even as a bench piece.

It’s wise to get him on a one-year deal. Trade exceptions are significant, but the bill comes due the following year. Trae Young has a player option after the upcoming season, and Dyson Daniels also needs to get paid. Between Porzingis and Kennard, that’s over $40 million in expiring money. If this team doesn’t meet expectations, they have avenues to retool with or without Trae Young. But I am entirely sold on this team, and let’s get into why.

Pulling Elements from Contenders

Atlanta is pulling pieces together, but what is the vision? When I see the NBA Finals teams, I see two formulas the Hawks are trying to emulate. Let’s get into how they’re trying to imitate the Thunder first.

We all know the Thunder won a championship with elite defense. But the elements building that defense are interesting. They have tons of depth, going from an incredible defensive starting lineup to bench pieces like Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso. These players have size, enormous wingspans, and are super athletic. Most importantly, they steal the ball like crazy. OKC led the league in steals per game, fueling their transition offense where those athletes could get out and run.

You know who was second in steals? The Atlanta Hawks. Almost a third of those came from Dyson Daniels alone, who had the best pilfering season of the 21st century. This isn’t some gimmick one-off. Look at their new projected starting lineup next to Trae Young: 6’8″ Dyson Daniels, 6’8″ Zaccharie Risacher, 6’9″ Jalen Johnson, and 7’2″ Kristaps Porzingis. That unit averaged a combined 7.2 steals per game last season. Together, and healthy, I’d expect that number to go up.

The big element is how this benefits Trae. He’s a better defender than people give him credit for, but still not great. If your weak link can get steals on the ball or work in passing lanes off the ball while the other four cover up for him, that’s an additive value. It’s the same thing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does for the Thunder. Granted, he’s about half a foot taller, but that’s the tradeoff for what Trae brings offensively. And that’s where the Pacers’ formula comes into play.

If you want to find the next team to win with pace, look at the Hawks. They were third in pace this past season. Trae Young’s presence will always boost your speed and playmaking; Atlanta also finished second in total assists per game. But it’s not about having one high-level ball mover; it’s about others that keep that flow in motion. After their offseason moves, Atlanta can have as many as nine players who averaged multiple assists per game.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are good secondary ball movers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard both find the right swing passes. Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu have above-average feel for the center spot. The new additions can multiply this team’s collective court feel to create a Pacers-esque environment where everyone can pass in a pinch. Coach Quin Snyder should push this team to keep the ball moving after Trae or Jalen create advantages.

The secret to the Pacers was ball movement without carelessness. Indiana as a team finished third in assists per game with the third-lowest turnover rate. The Thunder were the same; though they didn’t share the ball movement prowess of the Pacers, they had the ball stolen from them less than any NBA team.

This leads to the problems the Hawks have to solve to attempt to emulate these contenders. They coughed the ball up a LOT last year. Trae Young is a very risky passer, and while it often pays off, it leads to a lot of transition going the other way. Atlanta needs to build an environment of smarter ball handlers so they can tip the transition scales in their favor. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, steals are only increasing in their value. If Atlanta can keep a top-five steal rate while getting an average turnover rate, they’ll have a huge advantage.

Atlanta checked every box on the wishlist. Kristaps gives them elite center size, will stretch the floor in high PNR, and can swing the ball. Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives them multiple elite perimeter defenders, increasing their depth and lineup optionality. Kennard gives them a lights-out shooter. And they did all this while staying under the tax and adding future assets. It’s an absurd coup of an offseason to get significantly better in the short AND long term.

Draft Additions

Luckily for me, we have a Hawks and draft expert on hand at the Swish Theory. Why talk about things I’m not as qualified to discuss as our own Ahmed Jama? So, here are Ahmed’s thoughts on the Asa Newell addition.

My favorite aspect of the Asa Newell pick (besides the additional draft capital the team acquired in the process) is that the team already has proof of concept with the role Asa projects to play. Newell is a relentless rebounder who finishes extremely well at the rim, projects to be a credible lob threat, and should be able to guard every frontcourt position.

For Hawks fans, this sales pitch should sound familiar and reminiscent of a recently departed Hawk, John Collins. Although the tail end of Collins’ tenure may have left a bitter taste in the mouth of fans who’d expected a more linear development in Collins’ finishing and decision making, Collins undeniably outperformed his draft position. And if Asa Newell could contribute close to Collins’ level during his Hawks tenure, this would be an undeniable win for the team.

However, a few roadblocks are standing in the way of Newell achieving the level of success John Collins was able to reach during his time with the Hawks. First, we must begin with what defined Collins’ tenure with the Hawks: rim-running. Even though Newell finished 19th in the country in total dunks (3rd amongst freshmen), he was far from an effective rim-runner this past season. Newell finished the season scoring 0.931 PPP (points per possession) on rolls to the basket, and was in the 23rd percentile in efficiency in the ‘P&R Roll-Man’ playtype.

When considering these numbers, discussing the context of the team Newell played in the past season is essential. Georgia had some of the worst guard play of any high-major team. Their guards were both ineffective as scorers and inconsistent as facilitators. This personnel, paired with a highly congested and stagnant offense this past season, erased clean rolls to the basket for Newell and drastically affected the degree of difficulty on these plays. But despite Newell’s inefficiency as a roller, he still managed to finish over 70% at the rim, which is truly impressive for someone who wasn’t a full-time big. Newell was so effective as a finisher because of his persistence on the glass.

Newell’s offensive rebounding prowess could also be a boon to the Hawks’ defense. While the Hawks finished as the 18th-ranked defense by Defensive Rating, they were tied for 21st in fastbreak points allowed. Opponents, not fearing the Hawks’ mediocre offensive rebounding unit, predicated on an undersized frontcourt, could leak out and rack up easy baskets in transition. Newell’s presence on the offensive glass should limit these easy fastbreak opportunities for teams and establish a more physical identity in the frontcourt.

Overall, while Asa Newell may not be the flashiest player for the Hawks’ long-term future, I believe he can be an integral member of a frontcourt rotation, becoming increasingly capable of augmenting Trae Young’s strengths and compensating for his deficiencies. Although the Hawks are still lacking in size compared to most NBA frontcourts, Newell’s range defensively and ability to play in the open court add to the identity of a team that finished 3rd in pace this past season, even without Jalen Johnson and his grab-and-go talents for a large swath of the season. Asa Newell is the rare draft pick who fits into both the best player available AND best fit categories for the Hawks. And putting my draft analyst cap aside for a moment, it is truly refreshing to see the front office make such a shrewd move.

Internal Growth

One crucial element to remember here: the youth of this team. Kristaps Porzingis is now the oldest Hawk at 30 years old. Kennard is 29, NAW and Trae are 27, Okongwu is 25, Jalen is 24, Dyson is 22, and Risacher is 20. The vast majority of this rotation is on the upswing.

Sure, Porzingis is getting bogged down by injury. Trae has remained at a fringe All-NBA level for years. Kennard is what he is. But the rest of this team has more meat on the bone. I am bullish on more offensive growth for Dyson Daniels and NAW. Jalen Johnson should compete for an All-Star spot as his explosive development continues. Risacher now has a year under his belt and can get more bench minutes. Onyeka Okongwu continues to get better as he shifts to a backup role.

If these players stopped developing, this would still be a strong team. And I’d be willing to bet that more of them will progress than regress. Development isn’t linear, but they have a great core that’s young and flexible.

I love how the Hawks have positioned themselves to make a deep run in the upcoming season and, if they’re lucky, for years to come. Get on the hype train now before it leaves the station.

The post Atlanta Hawks: The NBA’s Next Sneaky Contender appeared first on Swish Theory.

Small edges drive on-court play as well. A defense will tag a roller because that corner three shooter can’t make them pay the way the pick-and-roll can. An offense will hunt a switch to find a slightly worse defender for their best player to attack. A coach goes bigger to create rebounds, while another goes smaller to shoot more and run in transition. On and on the dance goes all game long, until the edges one team creates outdo the other.

But these are all defined by small edges. When a significant edge is discovered, it blows the game wide open. The Moreyball-era Houston Rockets are the best example of this. They eschewed the midrange game to maximize threes and layups; at their peak, in 2017-18, Houston took 47% of their shots from deep and 35% at the rim. Their midrange frequency was dead last in the league. In fact, from 2012 to 2022, Houston was dead last in midrange frequency in every single season. With James Harden at the helm, they finished with a top-10 offense every season. That revolution broke the game open.

The average NBA team in 2024-25 took 39% of their shots from deep and 31% at the rim. If you go back to the first year of the Harden/Morey pairing in 2012-13, the average was 22% from three and 36% at the rim. The midrange has cratered from the most frequent shot (42%) to the least frequent (30%) in just over ten years. That was the product of the three-point gold rush.

Now, every team is on the hunt for shooting. Guards, wings, and even some bigs that can’t hit shots beyond the arc are losing value by the minute. Everyone saw the light, and the big edge generated by the “dunks and threes” philosophy has become a small edge. Thus, the search for the newest big edge begins. And I’m here to tell you now, steals are the next big edge that will create a gold rush in the NBA. Let me explain.

The Hypothesis

For these purposes, we’ll be focusing on the playoffs. The end goal of all teams is to lift that Larry come June. So, unless stated otherwise, I’ll be using playoff stats to explain the value of the steal.

Per Cleaning the Glass (like all my stats!), the average transition possession in the 2024/25 playoffs is worth 1.14 points. Conversely, the average halfcourt possession is worth 0.96 points. Going even deeper, the average transition possession coming from a steal is worth 1.36 points. These numbers will form the basis of my thinking.

Pushing a normal half-court possession into transition qualifies as a small edge. Take the Indiana Pacers, the best pushers of live rebounds in these playoffs. Indiana scores 1.05 points per half-court possession, which is the best mark of all playoff teams. They score 1.35 points per transition chance off a live rebound, also the best mark in these playoffs. So, roughly, any live rebound they push in a hurry is worth 0.3 extra points per possession. That’s a strong edge when you add up their average mark of 32.7 defensive rebounds per game.

But Indiana didn’t add the most points per 100 possessions through transition play of these playoffs. They finished behind two other teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. LA lost a tight first-round series to the powers of Nikola Jokic, so I can’t fault their process. Oklahoma City’s transition prowess has defined them all year and continued into the postseason. In addition to the second-most points added via the average transition possession, they have the second highest transition frequency behind only the Detroit Pistons (who have a third of the sample size).

This is where the steals come into play. OKC led the league in steals per game in the regular season, and has generated the highest turnover rate in this postseason. The formula that fueled them all year has put them three games from a championship: we are going to take the ball from you, and we are going to score.

Let’s do some rough math here—the Thunder average 10.6 steals per game in these playoffs and score 1.43 points per transition possession off a steal. For argument’s sake, let’s say two of those 11 steals don’t turn into transition, because I don’t have the money for the fancy sites that could tell me this. So, nine transition possessions per game at 1.43 PPP equals 12.87 points. Their Finals opponents, the Indiana Pacers, generate 7.5 steals per game at 1.38 PPP. Being generous and saying six of those turn into transition, that’s 8.28 points. Oklahoma City is developing 4.59 extra points per game in transition with their steal rates compared to Indiana.

And that’s not where the math stops. Remember that the average halfcourt offensive possession has been worth 0.96 points. Unlike a blocked shot, a steal is a guaranteed zero. Possession ends. Finito. So, if you’re the Thunder, a steal that takes away 0.96 points and adds 1.21 on average (12.87 transition points added divided by 10.6 steals). That’s 2.17 net points per steal leading to transition.

Alright, that was a lot of math. Take a breather. We have a bit more to get through.

A 2.17-point swing on a given possession is a MASSIVE edge by NBA standards. Let’s consider the small edges that teams look for again. The average NBA player shot 35.8% from three this postseason. So, the average three was worth 1.074 points. If shooting was your problem, you looked for upgrades. Let’s say a GM moves a player taking four threes per game at league average rates for a player hitting 38% of four threes per game. That’s an extra 0.066 points per shot, and 0.264 per game. Stretched over 82 games, that’s 21.65 total points in a season. Those are the margins we’re operating on here.

Now, I am throwing context out. That extra shooting edge may open up more plays, change defensive coverages against your primary options, and improve your points per possession in ways that are harder to quantify. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. If a steal can be worth two points, finding a player that averages 1.5 steals to 1.0 can add an extra point each game. The additive nature of each steal is far above any edge you can reasonably create.

Put it like this. Steph Curry took ten threes per game in these playoffs, making 40%. That’s 12 points per game for the greatest shooter in NBA history. If a league average playoff shooter took that volume, it adds up to 10.74 points. Gravity aside, Steph was worth 1.26 more points per game than your typical shooter. That’s worth less than the average steal. And there’s only one Steph Curry, and only one team has that edge. Plenty of teams can find a way to generate an extra steal.

The Application

Maybe you’re thinking this is junk math. I’m not Daryl Morey. I don’t know how to build complex data models to flesh out the values of each individual play. I’m a guy with a laptop and a premium stats subscription who watches a concerning amount of basketball. You can nitpick the math, but the critical assumptions remain: on average, the steal is now the most valuable play in basketball. Now the question becomes, how does this manifest?

Teams may try to find the next Dyson Daniels (a player I have written about time after time). The third-year Aussie went from bench piece on a middling Pelicans team to First Team All-Defense by wrangling three steals per game with the Hawks. That’s an astronomical number of steals, one unlikely to be repeated.

But let’s look at something more attainable: Alex Caruso, acquired for pennies on the dollar, is keying this Thunder defense. His 1.7 steals per game are worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City this postseason.

There are other ways to get in on the gold rush. Point guards like Tyrese Haliburton, typically admonished for being “conservative passers,” may increase in value. He who prevents transition chances is as good as the man who creates them, in a sense. Teams may hunt for stellar transition defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Nembhard, Derrick White, and Derrick Jones Jr. It’s no coincidence that some of the best transition players in the league are/were part of teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent memory.

You don’t need me to find evidence of the rising value of the steal. I constantly come back to the Thunder—in addition to their lead in forced turnovers this postseason, their offense has the second-best turnover rate. If Indiana were to beat them in these Finals, I’d bet on that win being fueled by transition and a shift in the turnover deficit. Just look at Game 3 last night. Indiana won the steal battle 13-6, scoring 1.25 points per transition chance off a steal. That right there swung the 116-107 victory.

The last great NBA dynasty was put over the top by three-point shooting. The next champion will be fueled by the steal.

The post Steals: The NBA’s Next Gold Rush appeared first on Swish Theory.

For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

Do you ever feel like names are a form of predestination?

It’s astounding how often athletes with a particular name find a way to represent that name. Usain Bolt and Stromile Swift are extremely fast. D’Brickashaw Ferguson was an unmovable lineman. Homer Bailey couldn’t stop giving up homers. Kenneth Gainwell gains yards well. Prince and Cecil Fielder did a lot of fielding at first base.

Down in New Orleans, another contender has thrown his hat in the ring. Enter Dyson Daniels, the defensive vacuum.

Defensive Overview

The main sell on Daniels as a prospect was the ability to impact the game on the uglier side of the floor. He has certainly delivered on that – Daniels ranks first on the Pelicans in defensive box plus-minus, and the team defense improves by 5.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

As a combo guard, his 6’8″ frame and 6’10.5″ wingspan truly stand out and enable him to contribute in various ways. Let’s explore this further.

Elite Floor Raiser

It’s hard to find a guard with a more comprehensive defensive profile in terms of statistics.

Amongst combo guards, Daniels grades highly in terms of defensive event creation with a 70th percentile block rate and 91st percentile steal rate. He’s disciplined in his chaos creation to boot with a 49th percentile foul rate. In short, Daniels can create a ton of impact defensive plays without getting himself in trouble.

The blocks jump off the screen at times:

That length enables him to reach some incredible angles on shot blocks. The 34″ vertical he possesses is solidly average for guards but makes him lethal when combined with the wingspan. Those arms also serve to enable some absurd steals both on and off the ball.

Going into a semi-peel switch, Daniels shows a great bit of awareness and timing to split the ballhandler and roller in order to be in the right position for the deflection. The arms and instincts do the rest of the work.

This is a lazy pass by Reggie Jackson trying to make the post entry to Nikola Jokić. However, that shouldn’t discount how absurd Daniels’ length is and the kind of effect it has on this possession.

This isn’t to say that having Inspector Gadget arms is the entire reason Dyson is a successful steal vacuum. He has an elite sense of timing, again both on and off the ball.

Look how patiently he waits here for the chance to blow up Kyle Anderson‘s handle:

Daniels is consistently sublime in his sense of when to jump a passing lane, front the post, dig from the wing, make a last-minute switch; you name it, he’s gotten a steal out of it.

This one made me laugh – notice how both Dyson and Herb Jones noticed the passing lane opportunity at the same time and got out in transition together.

Lastly, Dyson just wants it more than the other guy in most scenarios. He’s a menace when behind the ball in transition and a constant threat for these kinds of steals:

Dyson is one of the most exciting and versatile turnover creators in the league and it’s time he got proper recognition as such. If New Orleans makes a leap as a team, more eyes will begin to notice his event-creating prowess.

On a last note for defensive floor raising: the rebounding is superb. Dyson’s 13.3% defensive rebounding rate places him in the 91st percentile for combo guards, another credit to his hustle. But we will get more into his rebounding technique later on.

Battling the Toughest Assignments

The burden placed on Dyson by their roster construction cannot be overstated. CJ McCollum‘s absence has decreased it somewhat, as Herbert Jones has entered the lineup in his stead. The normal starting lineup is a different story. Out of CJ, Dyson, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Jonas Valanciunas, it is abundantly clear who the best defender is.

Don’t just take my word for it.

Not only is Dyson taking on these difficult matchups, but doing quite well against them, especially in isolation.

Here’s one future MVP:

And another future MVP:

Granted, Shai is not the best matchup for him. That quickness is a lot for Dyson to deal with considering his lack of overall foot speed and change-of-direction prowess.

How about some former and future All-Stars?

Notice how well Dyson times that use of the off hand to discourage the drive after the crossover and force a pickup by Brunson. That’s almost impossible to teach.

Get over the screen, recover in front of Cade, and work to slow him down on the drive in order to give Valanciunas time to provide the necessary help. That’s the best you can ask for.

Though this ends in a basket there is a lot of good in the process. He shows small help on Trae to support a mismatched Zion but closes out with enough control to not concede the drive after a quality hip flip. Sticks to the drive while using the trail hand to maintain leverage, then contests the desperation late shot clock pull up.

This is a great example of Dyson’s ability to contest a shot on the move and use his hands. His hand technique is excellent while Kyrie goes through a series of jab steps, discouraging the shot without offering the chance for a rip-through foul. Bumps him on the drive, then anticipates the turnaround jumper to get a quality contest and help force the miss.

De’Aaron Fox wants to use strength to create leverage on the drive? Here’s a perfect body bump to deter it and force him back into the pull-up. As far as I’m concerned, if you force Fox into a contested PU3 you have won.

The range of matchups Dyson can handle is extremely impressive. From the premier big handling wings to shifty smaller guards, there’s no perimeter player he cannot bother in space. But there are issues that arise once screens come into play.

Figuring Out Screen Navigation

The tracking stats for Dyson’s defense against screen actions are not great. Per Synergy Sports, he rates as “below average” or “poor” against pick-and-roll, handoffs, and chasing off-ball screens. Granted, Synergy defensive stats are not a perfect science, and leaves out a lot of team context in addition to some imperfect tracking. There is some left to be desired on the tape, however.

Specifically, Dyson struggles building up speed in short areas. He is prone to getting caught on re-screens or screens that have not been properly communicated.

However, there are a lot of good moments of screen navigation that the stats seem to underrate.

Not possessed with a lot of lateral quickness, Dyson needs to use his length in tandem with body contortion. Look how he moves his head as well to see the screen coming and deftly dodges it to stay with the ballhandler.

You see a lot of the same principles in the above clip, albeit with more help from the help defense. Moves his head to see the screen coming, uses his body well to get under the screen without conceding much ground, and finds himself in a good position to intercept the ballhandler. That’s a clinical under on a player like De’Aaron Fox.

Despite the lack of lateral speed, I’m bullish on Dyson’s screen navigation. The length and awareness combination will continue to put him in good spots and eventually yield good results. Sometimes there’s just no defense against a perfect screen; Dyson should be able to make it work against the less-than-perfect screens.

Growth Areas

As we’ve established, the point-of-attack defense, on/off-ball event creation, and rebounding is superb. But there are places he can work to improve.

The primary area of concern I have is closeouts. He’s often messy with his technique and offers a mixed bag of under and overdoing the effort.

Here are some examples of the overdoing:

The second closeout of the second clip is great, but you can see why flying into it is a problem.

There are also instances of Dyson showing subpar effort on these plays:

The last one is the most frustrating to me. Closing out on a shooter with your arms down? Big no-no.

The reason I am frustrated with this is that Daniels is capable of far more. His length and ability to make multiple jumps while contorting his body to avoid putting his body into shooters is sublime, and looks fantastic when all put together.

In short: I want more here.

Another area where I’d like to see more effort and execution is with his off-ball tracking. There are far too many instances of him falling asleep for a defender of his capability and quality.

Not paying attention to off-ball cutters and shooters puts the entire defense in a bind. Ballhandlers are clever and can manipulate defenders by getting close and drawing attention before kicking. Dyson needs to work on that awareness to provide help without succumbing to the trap.

A last area of growth would be the transition defense. Too often I saw Dyson lose his man or give suboptimal effort in these scenarios.

That’s a bit too much jogging!

Would not recommend sinking off Mike Conley in transition.

Again, an uptick in effort would go a long way here.

To sum it up, Dyson Daniels has already capitalized on the potential to be one of the best wing/guard defenders in the league, checking all the boxes you want to see. A little tidying up here and there and you might be looking at the premier perimeter defender in the league when you include his ability to rebound and rotate in addition to the stopping and passing lane chaos. I fell in love with this tape.

Now, we dig into the interesting area of his game.

Offensive Overview

You’re surely wondering at this point: Charlie, is this entire series going to be about athletic defense-first guards and wings with offensive question marks? And the answer is yeah, probably.

Dyson is statistically one of the least effective combo guards out there. His 23rd percentile usage rate is not by accident: he ranks in the 13th percentile in points per shot attempt and 34th in assist rate. That’s not going to cut it.

There are statistical bright spots, to be sure. His assist-to-usage ratio is well above-average, and playing as a wing last year he posted the best ratio in the league. It’s also worth mentioning that 58% of his shots have come at the rim or in the short midrange. For a player without a lot of shooting gravity, he is certainly adept at getting himself downhill into the higher-value shots. That shot chart is lovely to look at.

Dyson is making adjustments to playing as a combo guard. And when you dig into the tape, you see flashes of a quality offensive player in there.

Budding Playmaking

I was quite impressed with Dyson’s playmaking skill when given the opportunity.

Though the reps are limited, he finds a way to make some fantastic reads with consistently excellent ball placement.

New Orleans likes to run him off double-drag screens to create extra advantages and he’s great at making reads out of them.

That extra length he possesses opens up the delayed passing angles for wrap passes and creative layoffs.

There are some instances of him being somewhat lazy with his passing reads out of these looks, and the fact that teams don’t respect his ability to finish at the rim is not helping:

Daniels is a strong passer on the drive on the whole and can manipulate the help in a variety of ways.

There are definite reasons why Daniels doesn’t receive longer playmaking opportunities. His handle can be quite loose, and the jump passes can get him in hot water.

The good and bad of his complex playmaking reps provide a foundation to be built on. It’s also a great sign that Daniels is exceptional at making all manners of the “simple” reads.

Dyson has a knack for putting the ball exactly where it needs to go when initiating plays for his teammates in off-ball sets or swings. Take these plays for example:

With Brandon Ingram curling above JV on the empty-side look, Dyson goes high-low and puts a bounce pass right in Ingram’s breadbasket that leads to the drive. Looks simple on the surface, but a lot of window recognition and execution has to go into this.

This empty-side PNR look is another example of crisp bounce passing and window recognition:

Another underrated passing skill is the swing pass. Speed and precision are often hard to master, but Dyson makes easy work of these.

Knowing the better shooter is at the top of the key, Dyson immediately slings it after drawing the closeout and effectively beating the Atlanta defense with a tidy 1-2 passing sequence. That’s excellent reading of the floor, but again it looks so simple.

Daniels also boasts some of the best lob placement in the game.

Okay, maybe the last one was slightly off, but I’m giving him a pass because he went from the lefty dribble to the right-handed lob so quickly.

I think the term “connective passer” is highly overused and extremely reductive. A guy who makes swing passes and the occasional layoff to a cutter or skip to a wing is valuable, don’t get me wrong here. But a true connector can make ALL of the looks, even if they do not have the requisite scoring skills to press those buttons constantly. Dyson is no primary creator but can recognize passing windows and execute on a variety of reads with timeliness and accuracy.

In my opinion, THAT is connective passing: doing everything a primary playmaker should when called upon and bringing up the ceiling of the offense despite their scoring shortcomings. Daniels fits this to a T.

Transition Dynamo

To further expand on excellence as a passer, Dyson is one of the better transition triggermen around. His court vision, touch, and quick decision-making are major assets when the defense is unsettled.

The zip on these passes, the placement, and the ability to get his head up immediately and find the windows working together in concert is outstanding. It certainly helps to have a Zion-type transition runner to throw to. New Orleans possesses all kinds of transition threats, with Zion and Herb Jones running for the rim early and often while Jordan Hawkins sniffs out pockets of perimeter space to get outlet passes.

Daniels’ transition excellence is not confined to his passing talent. If he’s out on the perimeter defensively when the shot is rebounded the opportunities to leak out present themselves often.

Notice the recognition of where his teammates are to pick the leakout opportunities. There is a numbers advantage for the Pelicans in both clips, so Daniels takes the chance that his compatriots will win the battle and find him streaking toward the basket. That gamble pays off frequently for him.

Even without a clean lane to the basket, Dyson finds ways to get it done against the unsettled defense.

The floater is an unsurprising weapon from him that we will explore more in a second.

The numbers of Dyson’s efficiency in transition jump off the page when compared to his halfcourt numbers. The scoring goes from 17th percentile to 40th when working against an unsettled defense, and the efficiency including passes goes from 37th percentile to 72nd.

Though it comprises less than 20% of his overall offense, it is an important factor to consider when the defensive excellence is factored in. He can dominate one end of the floor and be good (if not great) in one facet of the offense, making the halfcourt offense his main growth area going forward.

A lot of that growth is based on these next two areas.

Floater Dominance

Not only does Dyson boast a 77th percentile mark in short midrange accuracy (52% conversion rate), he gets those shots off with a 70th percentile frequency. Granted, much of this stems from his inability to convert at the rim (30th percentile accuracy) though he still manages to get shots there, which we will discuss later on.

That floater is lethal, and his length and fluidity open up a lot of these shots.

The floater/push shot is a big weapon for him when attacking closeouts and opens up more ways to find gaps in the defense when in rotation.

It’s already a high-quality weapon that he can use going both right or left. If Dyson begins to develop a left-handed floater, he should be a force in the 5-10 foot range for the rest of his career.

Though Dyson doesn’t find a way to get rim pressure on the drive very often, opting for the floater instead, he’s quite good at finding gaps in the defense when roaming off the ball to get shots there. It’s a great quality in a player that the defenses will choose to ignore.

That’s how a guard without a lot of speed finds himself with a 72nd-percentile rim shooting frequency. Mixing in these cuts and slips makes for a high-quality mix of showing a rim presence without directly pressuring it himself.

There’s another way that Dyson finds himself getting there with effort and timing.

Elite Guard Offensive Rebounding

I mentioned earlier that Dyson posts elite rebounding numbers for a guard, and I wanted to explore the why and how under the offensive of the ball. The more difficult rebounds being done successfully warrants further scrutiny.

There are three key areas to this as a guard. Timing, technique, athleticism. Dyson constantly displays these traits while menacing his opponents on the glass.

First, the timing, which often goes hand in hand with anticipation.

As soon as the shot goes up, Daniels breaks inside to get the leverage and puts himself in a strong possession to get the miss. The anticipation here prevents him from being boxed out of the play and results in an easy two after the hard work is done.

Now here’s what the technique looks like:

Killian Hayes recognizes the shot at the same time as Dyson and gets low preparing to box out. Dyson hits him with a swim move like a non-racist Nick Bosa to immediately flip the leverage and find the ball, then lays it off instantly to Larry Nance Jr. for the second chance bucket. That’s going to be tough for any opposing guard to stop unless they can match his size and length, which few can.

And finally the athleticism:

The timing and spring on the jump needed to get to this ball are beautiful. Alperen Sengün is not the best vertical athlete around, but it’s still a lot of height to make up for just to get a hand on the ball. You can even see Alpie look back as if to say “who the hell did that??”

It’s not just flashes; Dyson is producing results. He’s an 89th percentile combo guard offensive rebounder, which is huge for a team that is already full of length and size. If EVERYONE on the floor is a threat to go and get it on the offensive glass, that is a major problem for any defense trying to close out possessions.

So, where do we go from here?

Growth Areas

I would be remiss if I went through this entire offensive section without diving into the shooting (or lack thereof).

Plain and simple, Dyson is one of the worst shooters at the guard position around. He’s sitting at 33% from the corners and 23% above the break, which are 26th and 5th percentile marks respectively. That’s not going to cut it.

He primarily operates out of the corners, and though he’s not opposed to lifting above the break, a lot of his shots are those high-value corner shots. There are a few things at work here: length and lack of touch are working against him, and I believe there are some technical aspects that can be cleaned up.

He has a very pronounced dip in his shot in addition to a narrow base set by his feet. The first issue causes problems with consistent load time and energy transfer, the second issue leads to inconsistencies in accuracy by allowing the body to move slightly based on the momentum of the shot. A wider base usually leads to steadier upper body mechanics and is, in my opinion, better for a taller player.

I won’t pretend I am seeing something the Pelicans have not. They still employ Fred Vinson, arguably the best shooting coach in the same, and working with Daniels on his mechanics is surely a priority. Working on shot mechanics can be a touchy thing: do too much and you may cause irreparable harm to their shot and their confidence.

This isn’t to say there are no positive signs. Daniels is often left completely alone, and it allows him time for an extra hop into his shot, which seems to be a good way of controlling his momentum and aligning his mechanics.

He also flashes moments of brilliant shotmaking off the dribble when called for, a sign he at least has confidence and the ability to self-create a good three.

The results through Dyson’s first two seasons beyond the arc have been quite poor. No doubting that. But, eternally the optimist, I think there is reason to believe he can creep toward average from beyond the arc, which would do wonders for the rest of his offensive game.

The second major area where I’d like to see improvement comes with his left-handed finishing. If given a clean lane and encountering little help, he can certainly make the look:

But when pressed on the ball or faced with the rotation, he tends to slide back to using his right-handed floater instead of using the left. This is tough to control when going to the left of the basket and forcing yourself to fade away from it.

The left hand also serves to better protect the ball from blocks by using the body as a shield. So, in short, Dyson just needs to try harder to use the left in order to boost his rim finishing numbers.

I maintain a cautious optimism that there is a good, if not great, offensive weapon lurking beneath the surface with Daniels. A little mentality adjustment here, a shot tweak there, and he would be a serious force multiplier for a team that already boasts a powerful scoring trio in CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

Future Outlook

As New Orleans continues to rise as a young power in the highly competitive Western Conference, so too will Dyson rise, the vacuum that sucks in tough assignments and spits out shutdown nights.

If he continues on this pace defensively while bulking up his frame, there could be future All-Defensive conversations to be had once he takes the reins of real starter minutes. That will be contingent on the offensive game following suit.

His ceiling on that end is tough to project. If he remains a guy who acts as a high-level connector, creates second chances, cuts/sinks and dominates in the short midrange, that may be enough. A step forward with his handle, left-handed finishing, and some real shooting results could take him to the next level.

There’s only one way to find out how far Daniels can go: more games.

The post Finding a Role: Dyson Daniels appeared first on Swish Theory.

In Henderson, Nevada, the G League Ignite team looks to enter its third season as an organization. The development program has spent the last two seasons in flux, with many outside the organization questioning whether or not the team is effective in its goals or what they may even be. Now, with a rebrand that establishes the team with a home and identity, Team Ignite is here to prove their goal of creating consummate professionals who are willing to go through whatever it takes to improve.

A Real Home

Moving to the Vegas suburb full-time, “we have a home,” remarked a relieved-sounding Assistant Coach Rod Baker in an exclusive interview. Coach Baker is entering his second season with Team Ignite after previously being a scout for the 76ers. “Last year… even though Vegas was supposed to be our home, it really wasn’t.” In the previous season, G League Ignite spent training days out of Walnut Creek, California, the team’s original home when first established in April 2020. Team Ignite played their home games out of the Michelob ULTRA Arena at Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas, but they spent the latter half of the season traveling the United States on the “Ignite Tour.” Now, the team has moved entirely to the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, with a purple and black rebrand that will reignite the organization. “Shock the System,” the new slogan says. This slogan indicates that Team Ignite is ready to change the system of pre-NBA basketball and is creating an atmosphere that the team has not had before, one of an organization that knows its identity.

The Last Two Seasons

In previous years, G League Ignite has had plenty of criticism for the structure that they’ve established. In the first season, the bubble environment was not adequate for scouting the prospects, and their short season forced scouts to make decisions on very small sample sizes. While top prospects Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga still managed to see themselves become top-10 picks, other highly touted prospects Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix slipped in placement after poor outings in just a few games. In season two, there may have been even less stability. The team was consistently on the road, and the games were often not taken seriously due to the exhibition-centric schedule. “It was almost like you’re playing a scrimmage,” said Director of Performance Ernest DeLosAngeles, also speaking exclusively to Swish Theory. Ernest oversees all aspects of physical development and performance for Team Ignite. “They knew they weren’t going to play in the [championship], so they were just playing these games with nothing really to play for.”

Coach Rod Baker echoed this sentiment: “It was difficult [to win]. It seemed like every game was an exhibition game. When we would come to town…[the NBA competition] would send their guys down and stack their [G League affiliate]. Because it was us.” The tougher competition, mixed with the intense travel schedule, led to a challenging season for the team and saw some players’ draft stock take a hit. Namely, former #2 ranked by RSCI recruit Jaden Hardy, who fell to the 37^th pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. However, with a home in Henderson, Coach DeLosAngeles and Coach Baker feel that the new sense of stability will benefit the team as they embark on a full G League schedule for the team’s first time in history. 

Finding Prospects

When it comes to selecting prospects for the team, Team Ignite makes sure they are bringing in players that fit their brand. Being in Vegas can raise questions, especially for a team housing many young players, but Coach Baker feels like it is a non-issue. “They don’t have a ‘get in trouble’ gene,” he said, “we want character guys who come from character families who see this as an opportunity to realize their dreams.” And character guys they are. Last season, many were shocked by the rise of MarJon Beauchamp, a former 4-star recruit out of Yakima, Washington, who had previously fallen out of love with basketball. After a year of training at Chameleon BX and re-finding himself and his passion for the game through religion, MarJon became a Junior College star at Yakima Community College. G League Ignite then offered him an opportunity to play pro, and he flourished in his role. “We did not run one play for MarJon,” said Coach Baker. However, his hard work ethic and constant on-court effort made him a first-round pick. 

Many of the players that come through the Ignite program exude a similar work ethic and aspiration to get better. When asked what all the prospects have had in common in the last three years, Coach DeLosAngeles responded with “[their] genuine interest in getting better.” Team Ignite has pitched its program as an opportunity to become a professional. This team allows young prospects to separate themselves from the college lifestyle, learn NBA sets, and play with NBA rules against some of the best talents in the world. Unlike the alternative of playing internationally, they can play in the United States, under the NBA umbrella, and reap the rewards of these resources. “[We are] instilling professional habits in them,” Coach DeLosAngeles continued, “that’s been the best feedback I’ve gotten from across the league. [The prospects]…have already developed those habits.”

Former Ignite alumni like Dyson Daniels and Jalen Green have exhibited this willingness to learn. Dyson Daniels and Pelicans Assistant Coach Fred Vinson have built a rapport with one another as they consistently work on Daniels’ shooting form. After the first preseason game of the 2022 season, Jalen Green said in a postgame interview, “I try to be as coachable as possible.” The players on Team Ignite recognize their flaws as players and are willing to improve their game and give into a routine. 

However, these players aren’t just highly driven, hard-working, and ready to learn. A sense of confidence comes with taking the G League route over a more traditional college experience. Players are betting on themselves, their ability to soak up information, and their willingness to improve by opting to play pro and losing their amateur status. While the G League does offer a salary, many have worried about how the new Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules could affect future G League Ignite recruitment. NIL rules allow college athletes to profit off their name, image, and likeness, and these laws are still expanding and being manipulated today due to being very new and causing an extreme shift in the amateur landscape.

The NIL implementation has already made waves in college basketball, with players like Ant Black being recruited to Arkansas via a Walmart deal or Nigel Pack getting $800k to play two seasons at the University of Miami. Many believe these laws have already impacted Team Ignite’s recruitment, with them getting zero single-year prospects out of American high schools this season. Coach Rod Baker, however, believes it is a non-issue. “We don’t even really think about it,” Coach Baker said, “if you’re coming here just for the money, it’s not going to work.” Team Ignite has managed to narrow down its list of potential players simply by having them accept offers at NCAA institutions with promises of money in return. While Ignite pays a salary, the commitment to the program is about getting better in a pro setting, not solely immediate financial gain. “You’re going to come to Ignite to realize your dreams,” Coach Baker continued, “it’s the difference between short and long money.”

Putting Together a Team

So far, Team Ignite has had a pretty good track record of getting players drafted. In two years, the team has had six players get drafted, and two receive two-way contracts immediately after draft day. This season, the team has its most diverse roster to date, with veterans who fit the mold of the team’s vision. “We wanted to get younger [veterans],” Coach Baker said. “We wanted to get guys who can still impact the game, and I think we’ve done that.” In previous seasons, the veteran slots were often allotted to older players, many of whom have looked to make a move into the Player Development space. Former G League Ignite alumni Jarrett Jack and Reggie Hearn have secured Player Development positions with teams. Last year’s roster of Pooh Jeter, Amir Johnson, and, for a short time, CJ Miles, showed that G League Ignite was willing to bring in older veterans to mentor their players.

However, even with Jeter remaining a member of the roster, this year’s team seems to have pivoted to younger players who still have plenty of experience. Newly added 31-year-old John Jenkins brings in a shooting prowess that team Ignite missed while also having a unique path from which the prospects can learn. Jenkins was a first-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2012, playing seven seasons on and off in the NBA before playing for BCM Gravelines-Dunkerque in France. Sharpshooters Aubrey Dawkins and Cameron Young are both in their mid-twenties, spending most of their careers in the G League or overseas. Marcus Graves spent last season with the Stockton Kings, and provides Team Ignite with another ball-handler who can make plays. Eric Mika and James Southerland round out the veterans, who have had lengthy careers overseas. This new group of veterans has come from many walks of life but are all at G League Ignite to get better and mentor these prospects. Their ability to space the floor and move the ball makes them key players for Team Ignite this season.

Training and Mentoring

In terms of the training and mentoring process, Coach DeLosAngeles breaks down how the team goes about training prospects and veterans. “Leading up to the season, we break them into two groups: prospects and veterans.” Coach DeLosAngeles corrects himself, calling the veterans “older guys” because some veterans are still relatively young and early in their careers. “We want [the prospects] to get acquainted with each other, and then we start mixing in the older guys. We make them interact in the weight room.. and we do this strategically based [on] who we thought would be a good mentor for whatever prospect it was.” Many of the prospects this season have come into Team Ignite with more experience than in previous years, and Coach DeLosAngeles has also noticed this go into training. “Everybody’s training is different based on their training age.” Training age is a term many physical trainers use to explain the amount of time an athlete has undergone physical training. The more physical training you have received in your life, the further ahead you are in your training age. This year’s roster has had many players who have been in professional environments.

Because of this, the weight room has come a bit easier, and the players have given in to using training as competitive fuel. “You see the competitive nature [in the players] when given certain tasks in the weight room,” Coach DeLosAngeles said, “that instinct to show up the person next to me.” This competitive drive surrounds Team Ignite, an aura that each member of the team and staff carries with them. And with a fusion of experienced, skilled veterans and some unique prospects, Team Ignite seems poised to take on their incoming season. 

Looking At This Year’s Prospects

As previously mentioned, this year’s class of prospects has an unusual amount of experience coming into G League Ignite. Star player and the projected #2 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson, enters his second season with team Ignite. In his first year, Henderson averaged (per 70) 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. As a two-year player, Henderson spent most of his first season coming off the bench for Ignite. However he often was the best prospect on the court, having multiple 30-point games and taking over games with his high motor and quick reflexes.

Scoot is joined in the backcourt by Frenchman Sidy Cissoko, who has spent his years growing up in the Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz system in Spain. He made his debut for the Baskonia senior team in their 2021-22 season, but was quickly sent to Juarista ICB in the Spanish second league. Cissoko struggled to stand out, but looks to find his niche here with Team Ignite.

In the frontcourt, one of the more promising prospects on the team is Canadian forward Leonard Miller. Although Miller was draft-eligible last season, he opted to take the G League Ignite route after a suboptimal performance at the NBA Draft Combine. Leonard is a 6’11” forward with great ball-handling abilities and quick movements that make him a versatile defender. Miller spent his last year at Fort Erie Academy in Canada, making him the least experienced single-year prospect on G League Ignite this season.

Also in the frontcourt with Miller is Center Efe Abogidi. Abogidi spent two seasons at Washington State University, averaging (per 70), 16.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. An athletic rim runner and rim protector, Efe brings something team Ignite greatly missed last season. He also provides Scoot with a PnR lob threat, a connection that likely will be seen plenty of times throughout the season.

And finally, the last but one of the most intriguing single-year prospects on Team Ignite is Mojave King. King is an Australian swingman who played his previous two years in the National Basketball League (NBL). After a tough season with the Cairns Taipans, King played with the Adelaide 36ers after the departure of Josh Giddey. However, King found himself getting inconsistent minutes, and was put into many situations that did not fit his game. The former NBA Academy standout grew up next to Giddey and former Ignite alumni Dyson Daniels, sometimes even outplaying both of them when sharing the same court. King looks to prove he is right there with the two former top-10 picks and Team Ignite provides him the platform to do so. 

There are also two two-year players on the roster this season. London Johnson is a Jamaican-American from Norcross, Georgia. A former teammate of Scoot Henderson, Johnson is a 6’4” guard with a knack for scoring the basketball. The other two-year prospect is Babacar Sane, a NBA African Academy standout who spent the last season playing in the Basketball Africa League (BAL). In an interview with Andscape, Sane said he sees this as an opportunity to represent the continent of Africa and show what they can do. Babacar’s journey has been one that many in NBA circles have followed, as he has been a part of the Sports for Education and Economic Development (SEED project) for standouts in the NBA academies, and now hopes to become the 2nd African-born player to get drafted from G League Ignite. On integrating the two-year players, Coach Baker reminded of the management of Scoot Henderson in the previous season. “I don’t know if he started any games last year,” Coach said (he started the final two games only), “and this is this guy that’s going to be the number one or two pick in this upcoming draft. Those two-year guys know that their path is a little different [than the one-year players], but it’s about the development.” 

The Upcoming Grind

Now with a full 50-game schedule, there may be more opportunity to develop the two-year players in-game, although some changes will be made when it comes to practice and training. In the last 3 seasons, Team Ignite’s number of games have almost doubled yearly (from 13, to 27, now 53 including exhibitions). The players may now have one of the more rigorous schedules of any of their other draft class counterparts, playing more games with more extensive travel. “The one thing that we focused on was trying to get the guys in a little bit earlier just to build the capacity to be able to handle the demands that they’re going to be faced with the next week,” Coach DeLosAngeles said. This mental and physical preparation is key to not just their G League season, but preparing for the rigor of the NBA. “They gotta get used to the grind,” Coach Baker said, “Packing that suitcase, unpacking that suitcase…getting to the plane, getting to the arena, all those things they’re going to have to get used to.” With the added travel and extra games, Coach Baker recognizes some of the loss that comes with it. “For me, it’s 20 less days of practice which is 20 less days of development.” However, the additional playing experience will help offset this loss of practice, as the players get more meaningful reps and more chances to showcase their abilities.

Team Ignite opened their season with two exhibition games against Metropolitans-92 and top prospect Victor Wembanyama. The teams split the games in what was one of the best showings of basketball in recent memory. The two top prospects in Wembanyama and Henderson went at each other in the first game, trading buckets and defensive stops, each taking over the game whenever they pleased. In the second game however, Henderson went down early with an ankle injury after a collision with Wembanyama, and Mets-92 managed to hold off Team Ignite to secure the win, despite great showings by Mojave King and Leonard Miller. Now, the team starts their G League season on November 4th against the Oklahoma City Blue in their regular season debut at their new home in Henderson. 

Setting Up The Future

When it comes to the on-court production, the team tries to play their prospects in roles that will translate to the NBA, something that many other teams cannot provide. “Not everybody is going to be Jalen Green,” says Coach Baker, “what role are you going to play when you get [to the NBA]? That’s what we’re trying to prepare them for.” What Team Ignite has done in the last two seasons is provide an alternate avenue for pre-NBA basketball, however this next season proves to have a greater meaning. Without distractions of college or NIL, and now with an identity and a home in Henderson, G League Ignite allows the players an opportunity to focus solely on basketball and self-improvement. “It’s about getting better,” said Coach Baker. “Try and build as many good habits as you can,” echoes Coach DeLosAngeles. 

The staff is dedicated to improving the players to be the best in their roles on and off the court. G League Ignite is molding players who understand how to become the best they can be. With a class of upstanding talent, they look to prove once again that they are here to shock the system.

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Dyson Daniels is a 6’8″ connective guard from Australia who spent last season on G League Ignite. A lesser known prospect as a product of the NBA Academy, Daniels quickly caught the eyes of scouts. By the 2nd half of the season, Daniels had surpassed teammate and former top-5 recruit Jaden Hardy on NBA draft big boards. In the Rising Stars challenge, Daniels played alongside former #1 pick Cade Cunningham, and won their tournament with Daniels playing a key role on the team. Daniels went 8th overall to the New Orleans Pelicans, a team with many other connective players and pseudo-playmakers. Daniels looks to carve out a role on a young Pelicans team through his defensive prowess and quick decision-making.

Offense

Dyson excelled last season in the point guard role for Team Ignite. Struggling in the first half of the season, he found his footing during the G League Ignite tour. Dyson had a 10 percentage point increase in 3 point percentage, and had improved stats in every category. On a struggling Ignite team, Daniels stood out with his decision making. Adjusting from his academy style of playmaking to the more freeform style of the G League, Daniels was the perfect mix of creative and methodical. With little advantage creators on the roster, Dyson knew how to draw in defenders, get to his spots and find the open man.

Defense

Dyson’s long frame and quick feet allow him to guard the one through four positions. Dyson led the G League in deflections last season with 3.9 deflections per game. This preseason with the Pelicans, Dyson averaged 5.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 8.7 deflections per 36. The deflections would be three higher than Matisse Thybulle, who led the league in deflections last season. Dyson’s considered a “glue guy” due to his keen shot-blocking ability and his versatility defensively. While his offense may struggle to begin his career, Dyson will find his minutes on the defensive end. With added weight, Dyson could quickly become one of the more dominant defenders in the league.

Outlook

On a Pelicans team with many skilled players, Dyson can come to use on the defensive end and as a connective creator on offense. The Pelicans have plenty of skilled players that, with Dyson, can lead to many creative options. Dyson, alongside Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III, will likely anchor the wing defense for the Pelicans this season. If Dyson can improve as a shooter off the catch, he can add a new fold to his game, and the Pelicans offense. Next to many creators with versatile offensive games, the possibilities and avenues to success for Dyson Daniels are endless in New Orleans.

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