You never know which version of this Orlando Magic team you’re going to get. Sporadic 3pt shooting. Roster-depleting injuries. Rotations lacking rhythm. But there’s two things you can always count on for this group:

1. Opponents scratching and clawing for every point against this pestering defense
2. When Paolo and Franz get going, this team can hang around with anyone.

Orlando’s defense is as impressive as any team in the league; this year the Magic are on track for their second straight season as the league’s 2nd-best rated defense. The one thing you never question is The Competitive fire. The Energy. The Hustle. (get well soon, Suggs.)

The offense, though, lives and dies with the consistency of its stars, not to mention the shooting luck of its role players. The difference between stars and superstars in this league is a little bit of super and a lot of consistency. Orlando’s two shooting star rising suns still have to find that consistency to make the last jump into the superstar galaxy.

This season, both players made leaps closer to that goal, becoming franchise cornerstones any time would build around. When you play the Magic, sometimes you get Boogie; sometimes you get The Beast.

How many NBA teams run their offense through a pair of 6’10” point-forwards? Two big wing scoring creators here to bend driving angles, hit tough shots, and create good looks for the team.

Often penetrating the paint with postups and pick-and-rolls, what are the odds these two big wings average the same 4.7 Assists Per Game with exactly 223 Drives a piece over the course of the season for the same team?

On most nights, The Magic’s offense relies on its star scorers accomplishing 3 main goals: Getting to the line, Scoring at the rack, and Creating open looks for others. Franz looks to methodically run P&R and DHOs, using the screener to create that half-step advantage into the paint with hostage dribbles and shifty direction-changing drives until he gets to the rim for his patented running flip shot, his dirk fade counter, or the lob to the roll man.

Paolo makes scoring look effortless, bringing the ball up the floor and deciding between a quick pull-up jumper, backing down his defender from the perimeter with brute strength, or simply driving through every defender in front of him for a Power Slam.

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley about the challenges that go into playcalling with players as talented and versatile as Paolo and Franz, where it feels like any play could work on any possession depending on matchups and lineups:

“I think a lot of it always boils down to their feel, their read, their recognition to who’s on the floor with them, and the spacing placed around them.” – Jamahl Mosley

Sometimes the role players’ 3pt shooting shows up, like in Cleveland in a National TV spot, and on those rare nights where this team has the “we can make 15 threes” factor in play, they look like they can compete with any team in the league. Other nights, they have trouble hanging with the bottom of the barrel, because when the shots don’t fall, the paint is packed, and every possession becomes a grind to force a stop and follow it up with a tough shot.

Sometimes you get Jekyll, sometimes you get Hyde; no matter which version of The Magic show up, it’s scary.

The Numbers

How do each of these rising stars’ stats compare to the rest of the league?

Franz’ +3.5 EPM rating ranks 19th in Estimated Plus Minus in the 96th percentile overall. Wagner has an elilte rating on both ends of the floor, rating in. the 90th percentile defensively (+1.3 D-EPM), and 91st percentile offensively (+2.2 O-EPM). Only 6 players with a higher EPM than Franz’ 3.5 EPM are also in the 90th percentile or higher on both ends, via Dunks and Threes. That puts Wagner in the company of NBA Stars who impact both sides of the floor, revealing that Franz is one of the best young rising two-way wings in the league.

This impact rating isn’t as high for Banchero despite his impressive box score stats, yet still rates in the 80th percentile overall (+1.0 EPM) and in the 81st percentile offensively (+0.9 O-EPM). In another impact metric called LEBRON, Paolo actually has a slight edge now at 1.43 to Franz 1.38 rating, while Franz still has the lead in LEBRON WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with 4.32 to Paolo’s 3.28.

Many Magic fans and skeptics around the league often debate who is the better player of the two, based on these impact numbers being higher for Franz than Paolo for one reason or another. Two prominent analytics folks have weighed in on the matter to help provide insight; in fact, its the people who created these very two impact metrics.


Taylor Snarr, the creator of EPM, was asked about this very topic in a recent F5 newsletter by Owen Phillips; here’s his thoughts:

I asked Krishna Narsu, the inventor of LEBRON, about this topic directly on my podcast, Learning Basketball. At the time, and up to that point in their careers, Franz had steadily rated higher than Paolo, despite Paolo scoring more points per game.

One might expect Franz’ impact to go down as his usage has gone up, but it hasn’t. Franz has stayed efficient when given Paolo’s #1 option touches due to injury, becoming the primary option defenses have to stop, yet his impact is as high as ever.

Krishna’s conclusion here at the time is that Franz impact stats are generally higher due to his playmaking creation for others, his shooting gravity on and off the ball, and his matchup difficulty as a more active defender. Doing more little things that impact winning than just smooth scoring and tough shot making.

That said, Paolo has finally reached the same level of impact via this metric, showing Paolo’s impact has risen as of late for making winning plays, improving as a shooter, producing as a scorer, and being a reliable scoring hub for the team.

Franz “Boogie” has been putting up legit All-Star numbers all season, averaging 24 PPG – 6 REB – 5 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL,
while shooting 54% 2P% on 13 2PA – 32% 3P% on 6 3PA – 88% FT% on 5 FTA. Franz has had marquee moments throughout the season, like going supersonic anytime he sees the Lakers, featuring a stepback game-winning kill shot on a 37 PTS – 11 AST – 6 REB – 4 STL evening in L.A.

Since the All-Star break, “The Beast” Banchero is scoring 29 PPG, which is 2nd only to The NBA’s Leading Scorer tough shot-making MVP-favorite superstar in Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Paolo’s averaging 29 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL in that 17gm stretch, while shooting 51% 2P% on 14 2PA – 37% 3P% on 7 3PA – 80% FT% on 10 FTA.

This success didn’t happen overnight; Paolo’s battled a tough injury all season, one that has taken time to fully recover from even while playing games. The standard is so high for the former Duke star that when he was averaging 22 PTS 7 REB 5 AST for 21 games after coming back from injury, outsiders still expected more.

One smart evaluator who looks at the game with a unique eye for physical movement pointed out he didn’t quite have the same leg strength back yet that makes his game so deadly. (h/t @Polarfall on Twitter)

I asked Paolo about his injuries, the physical and mental aspect of recovering and finding a rhythm after the comeback, and how the team’s mindset has been dealing with so many different injuries this season to key players.

Averaging 31 PPG – 8 REB – 4 AST – 1 STL in 14 games since this question, it’s safe to say Banchero is back to his star self.

Against Charlotte on March 25th, Paolo became the first Magic player since Dwight to drop 30+ PTS in four straight games, joining Dwight, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady as the only players in team history to drop 30+ PTS in 4+ straight games, via Magic PR. Against Dallas on March 27th, Paolo did it again, becoming has become the first Orlando Magic player since T-Mac and Shaq as the only players in team history to score 30+ PTS in FIVE straight games

That only scratches the surface of the scoring run The Beast is on. Paolo’s dropped 30+ PTS sixteen times this season Banchero’s posted fifteen straight games with 20+ PTS, a Career-High. Throw in four games scoring 40+ PTS for good measure, including his career-high 50-Burger against Indiana in the 5th game of the season, just before going down to injury. For all we know, Paolo could have been headed for an All-NBA team between his production and where the Magic could have been in the standings had he (Franz, Suggs, Moritz, Goga) not lost so many games to injury.

Seemingly every night, Paolo Banchero ties or sets a record not seen in Orlando since the Magic Mount Rushmore stars who have graced the blue and white pinstripes before him.

• First player to score 40+ PTS in multiple games in multiple seasons since T-Mac & Shaq after his shootout with Steph (56 PTS) in Orlando.
• Against Toronto, he drilled the most FGs made in a quarter without a miss (8/8 FG) since Shaq.
• After a game in Atlanta, Banchero became the 3rd player in Magic history to have multiple games of 35+ PTS, 10+ REB, and 5+ AST, joining, you guessed it, T-Mac (16x) and Shaq (3x).

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley how Sequencing factors into his playcalling to keep defenses on their toes with counters of similar plays: “it’s part of the game. it’s the game read. it’s the game feel.”

By The Numbers…

Banchero & Wagner have shared three games this season where they both post a statline of 25+ PTS – 5+ AST – 5+ REB in the same game, the most for a set of teammates in Orlando Magic history.


Paolo is scoring 25.7 PPG, tied for 10th with Cade Cunningham, meaning he scores slightly more points per game than Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zion Williamson.

Franz is scoring 24.4 PPG, ranking 20th among all players, sitting just ahead of Steph Curry, Trae Young, and Victor Wembanyama

Paolo’s 7.2 RPG is T-47th with Zion Williamson.
Franz’s 5.7 RPG is T-92nd with Jaylin Williams, Anthony Edwards, Dyson Daniels, and Guerschon Yabusele.

Franz and Paolo are both tied at exactly 4.7 APG a piece, T-51st among all players.

Franz 1.3 SPG is T-37th with many including Lonzo Ball, Bilal Coulibaly, Amen Thompson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, and Chris Paul.
Paolo’s 0.8 SPG is T-169th with many players including Giannis Antetokoumnpo, Ben Simmons, Evan Mobley.

Paolo draws the 3rd most Free Throws at 8.3 FTA/gm, converting 73% FT%.
Franz draws the T-25th most Free Throws at 5.4 FTA/gm, hitting 86% FT%.

Paolo shoots the T-56rd most three pointers per game at 6 3PA, the same volume as Gradey Dick, Cade Cunningham, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, and Naz Reid(!)
Franz shoots 30% 3P% from deep on the T-65th most three pointers per game at 5.8 3PA, the same volume as LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Desmond Bane, Andrew Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, Max Strus, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Franz is shooting 36% in the clutch on 15/42 FG.
Paolo is shooting 47% in the clutch on 21/45 FG.

Franz Wagner isn’t just Top-15 in PPG and Fast Break PTS, he’s rated even higher in four areas; Franz is exactly the 6th best player in the league this season at scoring Points in the Paint (13 PTS), Points on Drives (10 PTS), and Points off Turnovers (4 PTS) via the Orlando Magic broadcast team.

Paolo Banchero is similarly great in some of these areas, as these are two of the premier paint penetrators in the sport. Paolo averages as many PTS off Drives as Giannis (8.2), T-16th, and scores exactly 10 PTS in the Paint per game, ranking 29th.

In 809 MIN with Franz & Paolo both ON the court together, Orlando has a +2.2 Net Rating.
In 979 MIN with just Franz ON the court and Paolo OFF, Orlando has a +7.74 Net Rating.
In 484 MIN with just Paolo ON the court and Franz OFF, Orlando has a -8.85 Net Rating.

One thought with having multiple point guard creators on the same team is that one can be on the floor at all times; the same can be applied to having two stars, especially when both can serve as an offensive hub every second on the floor.

As the season has gone on, it appears these two are staggered more and more, where goal is to play as few seconds of basketball as possible without one or both of them on the floor – against Charlotte before the All-Star break it was 6 minutes; against Atlanta after the ASB it was 30 seconds; against Memphis the next night it was 4 minutes.

I asked Jamahl Mosley after the Grizzlies matchup what factors come into play when deciding between staggering Franz’ and Paolo’s minutes compared to the benefits of playing them together and keeping a balanced second unit in place behind them:

Volume & Efficiency

Below’s a chart that compares the two stars shooting touch in three efficient shot locations:

Shooting Touch – At The Rim, Free Throw Line, Beyond The Arc

Paolo shoots better from deep on and off the ball.

Franz shows better touch on a much higher volume of shots at the rim on layups and FLOATAs.

Franz shoots much better at the pinstripe, while Paolo gets to the line more often.

Synergy help us see the volume and efficiency for each Player based on the playtypes they categorize every possession into.

Keep in mind, that these tracking stats are still a work in progress; these stats measure the *final* action of a possession – for example, if a team runs 2 pick-and-rolls in a row bending the defense, and then follows that up with 1 handoff that results in shot attempt, that play is tracked as 1 Handoff Possession.

The two charts below shows how Franz and Paolo stack up in every Synergy Playtype as scorers, while 3 playtypes including both scoring and passing to teammates to compare them as Scoring Creator Offensive Engines: ISO, Post Ups, P&R Ball-Handler

To no surprise, Paolo Banchero has the efficiency edge in ISOs, Drives, and Spot Ups; what is interesting is Paolo is also more efficient on Cuts and in Transition this year.

As expected, Franz Wagner is more efficient running Handoffs and P&R as the ball-handler; what may come as a surprise is that Franz is also more efficient as the P&R Roll-Man and as a Post-Up creator hub this season.

One important note is that volume for some of these plays is drastically different. Paolo has 16 handoffs, 35 cuts, 75 P&R roll-man plays on the year; Franz is up to 68 handoffs, 90 cuts, and 30 P&R roll man possessions.

Both big wings like to leak out in Transition, scoring 1.14 and 1.22 PPP respectively on a total of 391 fast break possession between them.

What really stands out for Paolo is his scoring versatility – Paolo averages between 0.93 PPP and 0.99 PPP on his five most common halfcourt playtypes, which might be roughly average efficiency overall, but on high volume these can be reliable actions.

As for Franz, the combined P&R Ball-Handler efficiency and volume jumps off the page, creating over 1.0 per possession on extremely high volume. His efficiency is very good and doesn’t drop off the more the team runs him through the action. This is by far Orlando’s most reliable set to create a good shot through Franz as the offensive engine.

The numbers supporting Post Ups for Franz makes one do a double take. Paolo is the star swishing beautiful baseline fadeaways, yet the numbers say Franz creates more efficient offense for the team when running through him through the post. Franz creates 1.13 PPP on 104 possessions; Paolo creates 0.98 PPP on 131 possessions.

I asked Jamahl Mosley about the advantages created by moving Franz off ball around screens before initiating the downhill action, like in sets like Chicago and Peja where Franz will run around the perimeter through screen(s) into a handoff that helps give him separation from his defender.

Jamahl notes that this idea of creating advantages by moving off ball, gain ahead of steam, running defenders through screens, to create a situation where the scorer can shoot drive or kick with an advantage already created, is the goal for not just Franz, but all of the team’s scoring options:

Tracking The Assist Combo

Sometimes Boogie looks for The Beast; sometimes The Beast needs a little Boogie.

Paolo assisted Franz 40 times this year, the most of any duo on the team; Franz found Paolo for 27 dimes this season, the T-5th most of any combo on the team.

They have both assisted each other directly at the rim exactly 18 times a piece, T-3rd most of any duo on the team.

Considering how few games these two have actually played together, these marks show how they both prioritize looking for each other on the court for the most efficient shot in halfcourt – at the rim.

As for the costars finding the rest of the team for good looks at the rim and beyond the arc, Franz has created more total shots for his teammates (89 3PT AST, 110 ATR AST) compared to Paolo’s totals (72 3PT AST, 52 ATR AST), partially due to playing more games this season.

However, when the number is based on racking up dimes on a more comparable one-to-one scale of per one hundred possessions, the shot creation rates look much closer.

Paolo creates more looks for the team from deep (3.02 3PT AST per 100 poss),
but fewer dimes at the rim. (2.13 ATR AST per 100 poss)

Franz creates fewer looks for the team from deep (2.8 3PT AST per 100 poss),
and a much higher rate of dimes at the rim. (3.4 ATR AST per 100 poss)

(assist combo numbers via 3.18.25)

Boogie Nights

Some of Orlando’s many 4pt swings each game comes when the defense forces a turnover, the ball finds Franz, he immediately looks up the floor, and finds Banchero streaking down the sideline outlet for a breakaway slam, or he pushes the pace to create a 2-on-1 alley oop lob to Banchero on the break.

The majority of Franz assists to Paolo came in transition for 10 fast break buckets.

The 2nd-most assists from Franz to Paolo came on the move in the half court, with 8 assists coming on off ball cuts and 3pt kickouts.

The Franz-Paolo Pick-and-Roll hasn’t been used often, but it stands as a powerful weapon up Orlando’s sleeve going forward that unlocks Paolo as a short-roll playmaker and Franz as an on-ball creator with a screen, both pulling attention from defenses.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how high the volume of the Franz-Paolo P&R could reach for Orlando as one of the team’s staples sets:

“I really do believe that those two create a problem. And so, when you have two of your best players in P&R — they’ve got to make a decision — and they’re both great playmakers. And so, I think them being able to make plays and read off each other is something that can cause problems for a defense down the stretch.” – Jamahl Mosley

This action sets up the playfinishers around those two to finish at the rim or from beyond the arc. Send two at Franz or Paolo if you like living in your own nightmare.

Franz found Paolo 3 times for assists when running P&R. On two other possessions, Paolo drew a shooting foul after Franz found him in the 2-man P&R set.

Unleash The Beast

Oddly, Paolo did not assist Franz one time in any inverted P&R, and that action doesn’t seem to be used often where Paolo is initiating and Franz is the roll man, probably since this duo’s strengths may be most effective as a combination in the order described before with Franz on ball and Paolo setting the first screen.

Paolo most often found Franz on off ball cuts or relocation threes 21 times.

Winning early post positioning has been key to unlocking quick easy baskets for these two, looking for each other up the court once one has secured the advantage under the rim deep into the paint before the defense is set. One of the most reliable buckets every game is Franz taking off in transition, planting his feet deep in the paint, posting up the first mismatch he sees. Paolo hit ahead to Franz in transition 13 times.

Paolo also found Franz 2 times in the post after securing positioning advantage in halfcourt situations. Sometimes you’ll see one set a back screen for the other in the middle of a set like Horns to help force switches and create mismatches, shown here:

Finding a guard concept that works around Paolo and Franz is the next step

Orlando’s up and down season can be directly attributed to injuries first, and shooting luck second. Even this late in the season has seen volatile stretches, with the team now 6-4 in their last 10 after bouncing back from an 5-game losing streak. What’s been the difference as of late outside of the chemistry of these two stars?

Anthony Black‘s play has been the wildcard factor for this team. His defense is reliable enough to start every night, and his decision-making feel is special, two traits that define the strengths of his game. Even though he’s just in Year 2, he’s become the team’s third scorer, first option off the bench, and third big playmaker who can initiate offense and even space the floor.

When AB’s shot is falling and he finds a way to score, this team is often more competitive:

in Orlando’s 33 wins with AB playing, he scores 11 PPG on 60% TS% and 43% 3P%
in Orlando’s 37 losses with AB playing, he scores 8 PPG on 45% TS% and 20% 3P%

Black continues to develop the 3pt shot despite receiving constant criticism of his shot. In his last 31 games, Black is shooting 40% 3P% from deep on 2.6 3PAs per game; in his 39 games prior, Anthony shot 24% 3P% on 2.4 3PA per game.

I asked Anthony Black about his about his changing role due to injuries and his 3pt development after a 4/5 3P outing “I’m pretty comfortable playing where I’m at right now. It gives me a chance to operate a little bit, while also playing some minutes with our two guys.”

Another underrated factor has been the addition of 33yo Cory Joseph into the starting lineup.

You know a team is shuffling the rotation with injuries when arguably the 7th guard on the roster to start the year is now their most trustworthy starter.

Credit to Cory for doing the little things that have earned that spot: team-first ball movement, hit the open shot, run some O when called upon, take what the D gives you, hold your own defensively. Joseph serves as a fine example of the type of connector floor-stretching plus-defender guard who can slide right into an offense featuring two big wing playmaking initiators.

Orlando has a +8.9 rating in 173 MIN when they play Cory Joseph alongside Boogie and The Beast.

Cory earned the starting job after an impressive stretch against Toronto. Despite losing the game, Orlando mounted a 14pt comeback after inserting Joseph into the game to close with 10 MIN to play for the first time all night, making Cory a +14 on the night. He’s started ever since, leading Orlando to a .500 record after a rough stretch after the All-Star break.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how much he trusts the veteran experience of Cory Joseph after the game:

There’s no more debate to be had; Franz Wagner & Paolo Banchero are NBA Stars, rising suns for a team with the 2nd best defense in the league for the second straight season.

What separates the Orlando Magic from pretenders to contenders is that volatile 3pt factor. Whether they find a guard who can draw two on the ball with pull-up 3pt gravity or flank these two supernovas with more consistent shooters, that’s the last step to go from making the playoffs to competing in them.

The cool thing about this article is it starts and ends with the same picture – the Magic’s defense runs on Chaos Energy, and once Boogie and The Beast carve out the super to their star, this team might just mess around and find the rings they covet.

Stats via Synergy, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Magic PR as of 03.27.25 unless otherwise noted

The post Boogie and The Beast appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stability: ever-present calmness as the home crowd watches you with bated breath. The senses are overloaded, but the internal dialogue remains the loudest as the player dribbles the ball into a rhythm. Feeling the grooves of the basketball, the player releases the free throw shot with a sigh of relief as it leaves their fingertips.

Chaos and stability are often considered polar opposites but that notion couldn’t be further from the truth. Chaos can not be created without stability preceding it and neither can it be reverted to stability if there is no chaos. It’s two sides of the same coin, coinciding in a symbiotic relationship.

In its essence, basketball captures this conundrum perfectly. The game is built on its dynamism, ever-changing conditions that are presented to players and their teams, consistently being asked to adapt to the flow of chaos and stability.

As the rhythm of basketball echoes the interplay between chaos and stability, how does a young player develop through that? What allows them to reach that path of stardom in this subtle dance between spontaneity and composure? Especially when it may not seem apparent, and those players end up reaching those heights in unexpected, unorthodox avenues.

I believe the answer to these questions lies within three concepts that have cemented and formed my philosophy on NBA draft scouting and player projection. These three pillars of my philosophy for projecting stars are development curves, skill intersections, and role malleability.

False Ceilings

Let me start with the first pillar: development curves. Development is never linear and for that reason, it is crucial to watch how a prospect plays over their basketball careers and how many meaningful experiences they have throughout that young career. It helps paint the bigger picture with a prospect, understanding what skills they started with and how they’ve developed those skills over a period of time. 

To me, this is what a development curve is. Imagine a graph that charted the progressions and regression of a player over time, the average line would look like an exponential curve between those deviations whether that player is improving or in some cases getting worse.

That’s what is happening here: the red dots represent the different improvements in skills over a y-axis and x-axis, axes that showcase production and the timeframe respectively. Different players have different curves, some less steep than the example above and some of them where the growth is far more exponential, a line rapidly reaching new heights in a short amount of time.

Extremely steep development curves are where NBA stars are born. This type of growth in a prospect can be explained with various reasons, for example, it could be a physical growth spurt or they improved their shot or maybe they even begin to understand the game to a higher degree after starting to play the game at a later age compared to their peers.

Regardless of what that reasoning may be, this is what affects the steepness of the curve. When growth happens rapidly in a short amount of time and it leads to efficient production, it opens up the capacity to take on more of a workload as a player, acquiring new skills as the foundational skills that preceded them bolster.

Oftentimes, these types of development curves are hiding in plain sight due to the aesthetic and archetypal biases a prospect may be confined to. Coined by Matt Powers, my colleagues here at Swish Theory have frequently delved into what it means to be a false ceiling prospect. False ceiling prospects are those who have extremely steep development curves, yet their roles often obscure the anticipation of reaching greater heights due to the perceived limited upside.

The best recent example of this is with Franz Wagner, as Michael Neff describes it in his piece, Wagner was a highly productive sophomore at Michigan who was close to the age of a freshman, but likely fell in the draft due to his role on that team. Playing as a connector and a high-level defender, I can see why teams were lower on that type of player, especially when it meant taking a player who may not have enough on-ball equity extremely high.

Today, Franz looks like he should have gone far higher than the 8th pick in hindsight as he toggles between being a secondary and primary creator for the Orlando Magic. For the people who only watched Franz at Michigan, this may have come across as a huge surprise but these higher-level creation reps were hidden in Franz’s tape when he played for a pro team in Germany, ALBA Berlin.

You can see the idea of what Franz would be doing on far higher volume in the league, a crafty pick-and-roll operator with scoring decisiveness that could weaponize his size, touch, footwork, and deceleration on drives.

Taking a glance at his stats at Michigan, another reason why Franz was a false-ceiling prospect is that he was productive and functional in so many areas of basketball. This allowed him to carve out a role seamlessly in the NBA, further enabling him to grow his on-ball creation as he could provide high-level ancillary value to stay on the court while having plenty of opportunities to polish his craft in the pick-and-roll on a 21-51 Orlando Magic team.

The contradiction here is that Franz was a high-floor prospect, and for many, that meant the upside was potentially capped. However, a young player with a high number of baseline skills would inherently have a higher upside due to carving a niche in the NBA early. This idea of upside is further compounded when a player has a complimentary intersection of skills/attributes as Franz does.

A Chain of Skills

Another important idea in projecting stars has been identifying what tools and skills a player might have to lead them down that pathway. What I have come to learn is that more than a singular attribute of a player, it is the connection between those skills and how those intersections project to being functional on a basketball court. This is where my second pillar, skill intersections, comes into play.

Now visualize a steel chain, tightly interlocked between each chainlink that reinforces the overall strength of the chain. You can try to pull on the chain and try to rip it apart but it will maintain its structure, supported by the strength of each link working together.

A basketball player’s skillset and attributes can be similarly imagined, where an individual skill or athletic tool is its own part of the chain. Each skill and tool intersects in unique ways on the court, and sometimes that intersection can even be detrimental. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, but it becomes far more imperative to look at how those strengths intersect with each other and how they can make up for the weaker links in a player’s chain of skills.

For example, let us take a player that is 6’ 7” and is an uber athlete. The player might have NBA size, a great first step, and great leaping tools, these attributes give the player the margins to be a good driver and cutter. However, let’s say this player has a weak handle and sub-par touch. It becomes far more difficult for this player to drive to the rim functionally. When they do get past the first and second lines of defense and there is a presence at the rim, this player will not have the ability to create a counter like a midrange jumper or floater due to the touch. This intersection would then instead become counterproductive, where the weaker handle and touch can be seen as broken chain links that are destructive to the integrity of the overall chain. Due to the depth of talent in the NBA, it would require some truly outlier defense to offset being a 6’ 7” roll man since most NBA bigs can provide that offensive value at a much larger size.

What happens on the flip side of this, when the skills and tools complement each other on the court? Let’s explore how it functioned with Desmond Bane.

The 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft had spent his last four years prior at TCU, where the 6’6” sharpshooter improved as a shot creator with each year. Extremely productive as a senior, Bane was stretching college defenses thin with his shooting volume and versatility.

Shooting over hard closeouts effectively, making the right passing read out of pick and roll, and being able to funnel wings and slower guards on defense, Bane looked like the makings of a good rotational player at the very least. So why did he end up going so low in the draft in hindsight?

Bane falling to the 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft was a classic case of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes a subject to depend heavily on the first piece of information given to them. In the case of Desmond Bane, it was two data points: his age and negative wingspan.

Indicated by his 13.3 free throw rate, Bane’s handle was still on the weaker side for NBA-caliber wings and guards, making those two data points more prominent for NBA decision-makers. With age being a common proxy for upside and a negative wingspan that could affect his most translatable NBA skill which was shooting, I can understand why teams were hesitant to pick him earlier.

What teams failed to factor in was even with Bane’s negative wingspan, he was truly a unique shooter. He had micro-skills as a shooter that would allow him to operate in NBA margins; his shooting motion was extremely quick and his shooting platform was often away from the long, outstretched arms of defenders due to the high release point.

You could see this consistently in games, even when Bane’s handle took away from his shot windows, he was able to manufacture this space with the usage of screens and creativity when he had to pick up his dribble. Just watch as he tormented a Kansas team with length using his quick and high-release.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 NBA season and Bane looks like an All-Star, the Grizzlies have signed him to a rookie max extension, and the same handle issues are no longer a real concern as he averages 24.4 points a game on 59.7 TS%. How did he get to this point so quickly?

Bane had his flaws but what allowed his game to translate was his complementary intersection of basketball skills and physical attributes. Yes, he had a negative wingspan, and that caused him to gather the ball higher with his handle but the positives he had worked in complementary ways to overcome those issues. Ways that gave him developmental pathways for higher-level creation against better competition.

Drafted to the Grizzlies, Bane would not be required to immediately create like he did his senior year at TCU, where those handling issues would be more problematic at the NBA level. Playing off of creators like Ja Morant, Bane could scale next to these players effectively with his shooting and passing. Primarily as an off-the-catch scorer, Bane could attack tilted defenses with his shooting and straight-line driving, giving him the space to drive more often as the advantage creators on the Grizzlies and simplified role gave Bane the margins to improve his handle. What improved his margins to a higher degree is the unique intersection of shooting skill and uber-strength that Bane had.

Where his handle lacked, upper body strength enabled Bane to get into the chests of defenders and carve space for finishing angles. Due to the degree of shooter he is, he often receives a hard closeout where he could then act upon a defender that was off balance. This, NBA spacing and having a strong lower half would then allow him to consistently add handle counters like different stride lengths, throw-ahead dribbles, and change of pace. This combination of shooting touch and strength at 6’ 6” made him a strong play finisher and improved his handle in a short amount of time, allowing the Grizzlies to scale his usage up as a creator as time passed by.

Bane’s positive skills and attributes meshed well with his NBA role, each positive link in his chain of skills accommodating where the chain was cracked. Those chainlinks grew stronger over time and it led to a chain of skills that was far stronger than before.

This process of improvement would not be possible if it were not for the number of roles Bane played throughout his pre-NBA career that let him scale quickly in the league. As important as it is to identify a player’s chain of skills and understand what development curve they are on, a common trend that I have begun to notice with unorthodox players that grow quickly in a short period is role malleability.

How Do You Help Your Team Win?

We’re finally here, the crux of this piece and my third pillar of player projection: role malleability.

To me, role malleability is another step above the commonly used term in the discipline of basketball, role versatility. While role versatility looks at the spectrum of roles a player can navigate, role malleability takes a magnifying glass to that concept and looks at how productive a player is in those multiple roles and more importantly how quickly that player can adapt to a change in role.

Why would that be important? Remember how I talked about basketball being this subtle dance between chaos and stability? As an invasion sport, games in which the aim is to invade an opponent’s territory and score a goal or point, basketball is mostly in a state of chaos and this can often make it difficult for players to adapt to different basketball requirements quickly, especially for younger players.

Since the realm of sports is infused with the uncertainty of outcomes (Baimbridge, 1998), the athletes and spectators must therefore be prepared to adapt to the changing circumstances (Rahman, Husain, 2022). The productivity of a basketball player is in essence how effectively and quickly they are meeting ever-changing demands on the court.

Whether it’s from game to game or possession to possession, this flexibility to adapt to new constraints quickly and consistently can be used as a proxy for high-level feel in scouting. As Evan Zaucha explains in his piece, he describes feel as the sum of a player’s pattern recognition, visual processing (especially spatial recognition), and processing speed. Role malleability causes a player to consistently test these tenets of feel and this is why I believe it can open more pathways to stardom for a player.

Furthermore, I believe this theory on role malleability is further rooted in the work and research done on the concepts of cognitive flexibility in sports psychology. 

Cognitive flexibility is the human ability to adapt cognitive processing strategies to face new and unexpected conditions in the environment (Cañas et al. 2003). When a person performs a complex task their behavior needs to be adapted to the environmental conditions in which the task is being performed. However, these conditions continue to change as the task develops, therefore in order to be flexible, a person has to focus attention on these conditions on a regular basis. In addition to this, in order to adapt their behavior to the new conditions, the person needs to restructure their knowledge so as to effectively interpret the new situation and the new task requirements(Cañas et al. 2005). 

Cognitive processing strategies, in the context of this definition, are a sequence of operations that search through a problem space (Payne et al. 1993). In other words, role malleability is this exact concept of adapting different cognitive processing strategies to various stimuli. The rate at which younger players can process and adapt to new stimuli enables the mastery of skills in different environments, which therefore gives players the ability to develop new micro-skills upon their foundational skills.

This has been seen in research for other sports. Evidence for adaptability has been reported in unstructured, non-coached games of cricket and soccer (Araujo et al., 2010; Phillips et al., 2010a; Weissensteiner et al., 2009). The variability (e.g. different environment, different ball) experienced by players provided them with an opportunity to develop their sport-specific adaptability; although appearing to specialize early, the extreme variability in constraints they experienced allowed them to benefit from important aspects of both early specialization (accumulation of practice hours) and sampling (Potter, 2017).

A 2018 study (by Reddy et al.) found that brain state flexibility accompanied motor-skill acquisition. They proposed a time-time network for the application of graph theory in brain networks. The results were quite intriguing as they identified two canonical brain states associated with motor sequence learning. One key element they found was that the brain switches between states more frequently in later stages of learning. I believe this element lends itself to the adaptive part of role malleability. Problem-solving becomes more creative and layered when there is true mastery of skills.

Playing different offensive or defensive roles gives the player the opportunity to master the base skills needed to perform that role. With new constraints, players can keep adding micro-skills in response. As the rate of improvement increases, it is a sign that the player is capable of more, and coaches can then increase their workload and introduce them to a new set of constraints. 

This process leading to skill acquisition is the reason why I believe so many players who experience this throughout their young careers have experienced early success in the modern NBA. The most recent examples of this are players like Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, Austin Reaves, Gordon Hayward, and Brandon Miller. 

These players played several different roles over a wide range of competition levels, enabling them to master skills in those roles which could translate when adapting to more complex constraints. This allowed them to acquire new skills far more rapidly as their usage increased.

Oftentimes coaches and players will talk about the game slowing down for star players; I believe this is essentially what they mean. In the chaos of an invasion sport, stardom is found in those who find stability in that very chaos. This is due to the mastery of different roles lending itself to processing the same decisions at a quicker rate, unfazed by new obstacles thrown in the player’s way.  

A prime example of this is the OKC Thunder’s Jalen Williams. Jalen Williams played three years for the Santa Clara Broncos before he got to the NBA, where he played many offensive roles throughout his college career. Before getting to Santa Clara, Williams had a massive growth spurt from 6’ 0” to 6’ 6” by his senior year in high school. Playing as a point guard his entire life up until that point, his ball skills were still there but he had to get accustomed to his new measurements. It takes a while for a player to get used to being coordinated with their new body, William’s body was a new set of constraints for him to recalibrate. 

William’s coaches eased him into offensive usage, playing mostly as a connector attacking closeouts his freshman year, growing into more of a second-side creator his sophomore year, and finally excelling in primary usage on the ball his junior year. Jalen William’s unique intersection of ball handling, touch, and feel at his size allowed him to scale to a number of different roles in his junior year, putting up production regardless of what obstacle was thrown at him. 

Due to his mastery of skills in various roles, he could find stability in the chaos of new constraints. The efficiency was an indication of that mastery and a sign that Jalen Williams could take on more of a workload against better competition. The role malleability Williams has shown he could acquire more skills at a more rapid rate, causing his development curve to become steeper. Today, Williams is the secondary creator for the second seed in the Western Conference in only year two. He’s been a swiss-army-knife wing that has been highly productive in his main role, shooting 44.7% from the arc and an overall 62.8 TS% on the season so far.

Even in the NBA, his level of role malleability still lends itself to stability when he has to operate as the primary creator in instances. He’s truly on a path to stardom as he continues to refine his skills and acquire new ones as a creator.

Shifting gears back to the draft, are there any players that fit these three pillars that I have defined? Are there any players that are highly role malleable, due to their intersection of skills allowing them to consistently adapt to new circumstances? Are any of these players on a steep development curve due to their ability to gain new skills by adapting quickly?

Enter Johnny Furphy.

The Case For Johnny Furphy

Johnny Furphy is a 19-year-old freshman who is currently starting for the 2023-24 Kansas Jayhawks. Hailing from Melbourne, Australia, Furphy comes from an athletic family deeply rooted in sports. His father, Richard, made a career as a professional Australian rules football player, while his mother achieved bronze in the Junior Olympics for diving. His older sister plays soccer for Santa Clara and his older brother played basketball and is now a professional Australian football player.

Growing up in such a competitive household, where sports were a way of life, had a significant impact on Furphy. Johnny’s brother, Joe, who is five years older, played a pivotal role in sparking Johnny’s interest in basketball. Johnny Furphy started by playing pick-up with his older brother and his brother’s friends. Being undersized and the youngest for the longest time, Furphy gained an edge that you can see flare consistently when he’s on the basketball court.

For the longest time, Furphy was one of the smaller players on the court. Basketball was always the sport he enjoyed the most, but Furphy played other sports like Australian rules football and cricket during his time in school.

At the height of the pandemic, things drastically changed for Furphy. He was a late bloomer, but the former 5’ 8” guard had grown to 6’ 8” in a short time, a massive growth spurt as reported by Shreyas Laddha of the Kansas City Star. However, due to the strict COVID restrictions in Melbourne, Furphy could not play organized basketball for nearly two years.

Essentially losing his early high school years of basketball, Furphy had to get used to his new body, especially in the context of basketball. Furphy had to get his new body up to speed with all of the ball skills and feel he gained as a small guard. Barely making state teams before his growth spurt, Furphy got his chance to develop his game and body in his senior year with Australia’s Centre of Excellence, a training program for future national Australian basketball players where we’ve seen recent top-ten picks like Dyson Daniels and Josh Giddey come through.

Furphy was a relative unknown in basketball circles due to this development curve he’s been on, but he truly made his name in the summer of 2023 at the NBA Academy Games where he broke out in front of multiple pro scouts and college coaches. The college offers started pouring in, fast forward a couple of months and Furphy is a high-level contributor to a 21-8 Kansas team.

He may only be 19 today, but Furphy’s roller coaster ride of a start to hoops makes him pretty young in terms of high-level basketball experience. His ‘basketball age,’ is far lower when you compare him to the average 19-year-old. The growth spurt made his development curve steeper, and even with the lack of experience and time to grow into his body, he’s been extremely productive in a scaled role as a freshman. Similar to Jalen William’s late growth spurt, Furphy’s newfound size opened up far more pathways as a basketball player. This is one of the reasons why I believe Furphy is a false-ceiling prospect.

Furphy’s Chain of Skills

Before getting into Furphy’s production, let’s take a look at his skills, attributes, and how they intersect on the court.

Standing at 6’8”, potentially reaching 6’9” in shoes, Johnny Furphy possesses prototypical NBA size and length for the forward-wing position, complemented by a long wingspan spanning between 6’11” and 7’0”. Still gaining strength and weight, Furphy weighs a reported 202 pounds. At 19, he has a skinny frame, but this has not deterred him from being aggressive and physical on the court.

Watching him play over the past couple of years, you can see Furphy has high levels of touch and that translates to his most bankable NBA skill: shooting. Furphy is a pretty advanced shooter considering his experience, shooting with high volume and versatility that includes shots off of movement, off the dribble, above the break in transition, and catch-and-shoot. His mechanics have developed over the years, oftentimes having to accommodate for his lack of lower-body strength with a wider base. Today, Furphy’s shot is a 1.5-motion jumper with a high point of release, even mixing in no dip threes when extremely hard closeouts come his way.

The strongest facet of his shooting has been catch-and-shoot, but the capability to add different shots to his arsenal in a short period is a massive sign that he could be a high-level shooter.

I’ve compiled his shooting throughout these past couple of years, and you can see Furphy’s mechanics were initially accommodating for upper and lower body strength. A wider base, low release, and his knees protruding forward are different parts of his mechanics accommodating to larger distances. Even off movement, his stability was not great and self-organization was extremely slow, often needing a rhythm dribble to get into his shot. In just a year, Furphy has gained core strength and improved stability throughout his body, leading to better energy transfer throughout his kinetic chain and that is shining through in his efficiency.

Furphy adding this versatility while shooting with high volume is a proxy for the growing shooting confidence that he and his coaches have in him. What makes this truly impressive is that Furphy has dealt with a weaker lower half since he had his growth spurt, and has not been able to make massive strength gains here due to dealing with minor shin injuries before being recruited to the Centre of Excellence and a severe case of shin splints before his season started at Kansas. The injuries added an extra obstacle to developing his lower half strength due to being in the rehab process.

Even with his weaker lower half, Furphy has explosion and a quick load time off of two feet. He doesn’t cover a lot of distance vertically but this is where his length helps him extend into finishes, which is further strengthened by his ability to explode over the top of defenses off of his back foot. You can really see this in Furphy’s offensive rebounding, drives/cuts to the rim in the halfcourt, and when he attacks the rim in transition.

Give Furphy an open lane to build up momentum and it becomes really difficult to stop him at the rim due to his physicality, functional strength, and leaping mechanics. This intersection of athletic traits and shooting touch gives Furphy a baseline as a high-level play finisher in the NBA, weaponizing it when given space and attacking defenses that are in scramble mode.

But what about his ability to create at a higher degree? This is where his feel kicks in. Furphy already has an advanced understanding of spacing, constantly relocating off the ball and cutting into space for finishes and offensive rebounds. When he does have the ball in his hands, he’s shown to make one-level reads with relatively quick processing.

A 6’ 9” shooter with bounce and connective passing at 19 is a great baseline but to project even higher forms of creation, it requires an NBA player to be able to self-create half-court drives on volume. This is the weakest part of Furphy’s chain of skills on the offensive end, where a weak handle hampers his creation reps.

As a driver, Furphy does have one unique aspect: lower body flexibility. Although he’s a large player, Furphy is consistently able to get lower than players on drives and leverage his physicality. This is in part due to his shin angles, allowing him to get lower and use his shoulder as a lever to manufacture space.

Furphy doesn’t create his advantages on drives in orthodox ways using burst, it’s a pure combination of lower-half flexibility and strength. When he can get deep in the paint, his explosive last stride, touch off the glass, and length help him finish these drives. The problem is what happens in between those two events.

His handle limits so much of his drives, unable to react effectively to stunts and digs, causing him to gather extremely early on drives and rely on his last stride and touch. Furphy has to look at his handle consistently on drives too, which is another reason why he’s slow to react to help with his handle.

Similar to freshmen Bane in that way, it isn’t a death sentence to Furphy’s upside as a creator. Like Bane, he has tools that will help him work the handle issues in NBA margins. Furphy has already added handle counters like deceleration, behind-the-back crossovers, and jabs out of triple-threat situations in the past year. What he needs to work on is his ball control, introducing more changes of direction and different stride lengths to freeze defenders, all things he’s capable of athletically with improved lower body strength.

When lack of space is the constraint given to Furphy’s handle, his issues there become far more emphatic but in transition, he’s able to problem-solve with his handle in space and bring the ball up the floor functionally.

As someone who can grab an offensive rebound or create a steal by getting into passing lanes, Furphy’s aggression in transition offense while being able to weaponize his feel and touch from the three levels of the court gives Furphy a unique intersection of skills on the court. Skills that thrive off of each other, enabling him to carve a role early regardless of competition.

Furphy’s Role Malleability

A lack of experience would have faltered most young players when it comes to adapting to different roles, Furphy on the other hand has shown he can be productive in a wide range of roles. Even before he truly started playing high levels of competition, Furphy was able to relatively master transition offense due to his background in another invasion sport, Australian rules football. Gaining reps where you have to cover massive amounts of ground over a gigantic field gave Furphy the offensive skills to be aggressive in space. As a contact-heavy sport, this is where Furphy’s functional strength comes from as well because he would have to consistently absorb contact and finish plays in football.

As he gained more opportunities to play basketball after his growth spurt, Furphy was put in a number of offensive roles throughout various levels of competition. Playing mostly off-the-ball early on, he honed his off-ball feel and scoring in those roles which eventually allowed him to start running second-side pick-and-rolls when the primary action failed. Experience polished his skills, allowing him to eventually run pick-and-rolls as the primary ball-handler in limited reps. This forms a parallel with how Franz Wagner would often adapt effectively to various off-ball roles at the same age, but when he was used as the primary pick-and-roll handler he was still productive in those limited reps (fifteen possessions) in his final year with ALBA Berlin. Similarly, whether it was game to game or possession to possession, Furphy’s productivity in multiple roles was apparent.

Are there any areas where he has not been productive? I haven’t spoken about Furphy’s defense yet but there is a reason for that. College teams have consistently attacked Furphy in space since he’s been hit-or-miss when it comes to containing drives. Furphy also has issues navigating screens as a bigger player but I believe there is a common reason for both.

You guessed it, it’s lower body strength. Due to his lack of strength, he’s unable to get low enough in defensive positioning and stay with players laterally. This also limits him in screen navigation as he’s unable to get low enough, turn the corner, and explode back into the play. Furphy is role-versatile when it comes to defense but I would not say he is malleable enough in this area. He can play a multitude of roles on this end, whether it’s at the point of attack, in gaps, or even some deterrence at the rim but he does not truly thrive in any of these roles outside of being a nail defender. There is some low-hanging fruit with the lower half development, allowing him to become more stable on closeouts and stay laterally with offensive players, but his ceiling on the defensive end is dependent on the degree of strength he’s able to add.

Regardless of the defense, Furphy has been extremely productive in a scaled off-ball role at Kansas. Playing in a high-major system like Kansas, there are far fewer on-ball flashes for Furphy in this role. Due to how their system operates, I believe Kansas would rather Furphy use his gravity on the perimeter to space the floor and do not want him to drive more in their half-court offense with creators like Kevin Mccullar able to take on that offensive load.

The important part here, in the context of Furphy’s projection, is that he has been productive in the role that he’s been given.

This did not mean the development process ended, in fact with more complex problems to solve in a comfortable role, Furphy has been able to add micro-skills to meet his new constraints. One of these micro-skills is baiting fouls when he’s finishing a play. He’s been far more effective at selling contact in these possessions and that is apparent from his 42.9 free-throw-rate. In pre-college samples that same free throw rate was consistently in the sub-thirty range.

Conclusion

While I believe Furphy will be a good NBA player in most contexts, like most prospects, reaching his upper-end outcomes as a creator will need an optimal development environment. An NBA team with cemented creators and a DHO big will enable that team to leverage Furphy’s off-ball value early on. The creators can help his handle limitations stand out less, while a DHO big will find him on cuts and in handoffs as a shooter. Letting Furphy become comfortable at the NBA level will then open up his creation pathways. There is a case that Furphy’s intersection of skills will allow him to develop his handle as an off-the-catch scorer, attacking tilted defenses like Desmond Bane did with the Grizzlies early on. This should give him the time off the court and the space on the court to fix the weaker links in his chain of skills.

The skill intersection, the ability to play on and off the ball, and his current development curve give Furphy the ability to scale to most basketball contexts with the ability to take on more of a workload as a creator when experience builds up.

He’s a false ceiling prospect for these very reasons. In most draft classes, a young dribble-pass-shoot wing with the potential for above-average defense would justifiably be a top-10 pick. In a class, where that archetype is not only rare but the top of the draft is wide open, I believe it is justified to take Johnny Furphy with a top-5 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

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