The larger lesson I’ve come away with from this Finals isn’t a novel insight by any means; it was an emphatic reinforcement of what makes exercises like rankings (which I admittedly find great joy in) a futile exercise. In the modern NBA, fit is everything, a fairly banal observation, I know, but in an era where punitive salary cap clauses place a premium on continuity, differentiating between players who can or cannot augment in-house personnel is paramount. Currently, the NBA is approaching a saturation point of talent, where there truly aren’t many players incapable of contributing in any setting. And as the skill level reaches a crescendo, drowning out the noise and identifying the players tailor-made for your current setting is key. And in this class, I’m not sure if there is a player more representative of this idea than Tre Johnson.

In the 2025 draft class, there may not be a more known commodity than Tre Johnson. In 2022 Johnson debuted at 3rd overall in 247’s initial rankings for the 2024 High School class and never dropped below 6th for 247. In RSCI (Recruiting Services Consensus Index), Johnson finished 5th overall. As stat tracking in the amateur hoops space has become more prevalent over the past few years, players are entering college with increasingly robust statistical profiles. This, paired with more accessible game film, makes this current crop of one-and-done prospects maybe the most thoroughly scouted group of players to enter the NBA. Take the evaluation of Tre Johnson below, from 247’s Adam Finklestein.

Written over eighteen months ago, if you were to remove the date, this scouting report could easily be mistaken for a write-up on Tre’s game from his lone season at Texas. If you were to analyze Tre’s game on a more micro-level, Finkelstein’s analysis could be used as support for the validity of ‘prospect determinism’, an idea dictating that players, even as early as high school, are more fully formed than we are willing to acknowledge. Coming into the season, I had made two fairly innocuous posts observing a perceived weakness (Half-Court finishing), and strength (Isolation scoring) in Johnson’s game.

Lo and behold, Johnson remained a subpar finisher in the half-court (46.5% with a 17% rim-frequency) and saw no issues translating as an Isolation scorer. Per Synergy, Johnson was 11th in the country in ISO PPP (.827) of anyone with 100 or more possessions, and the second most efficient freshman of anyone with this high of volume in the past decade (trailing only Dennis Smith Jr). Even with his ineffectiveness at the rim, Johnson’s individual scoring prowess put him in rare air amongst freshmen to have entered the league.

Keep in mind the query above was not conducted on a pool of only drafted players, but on every season of every player to enter the league since 2010. 12 of the 14 players in the query were, or are projected to be, top 10 picks, all were high pedigree prospects. However, even with Johnson’s impeccable resume as a scorer, plenty of evidence calls his lofty draft status into question. The issue of Tre Johnson’s defense is well known by now, and it has been widely recognized as an acceptable risk to take considering the caliber of offensive player Johnson profiles to be. Defenses lapses shown below have been met with a degree of hand-waving.

Texas made it a point to keep Johnson from the action defensively, typically assigning him to smaller, lower usage, perimeter players to suppress his fouling and keep him on the floor. And for as frequently as Johnson’s impressive anthropometric profile is cited as a reason for optimism in his defensive projection long-term, I was only slightly less underwhelmed by his individual defense when he was involved in possessions.

A fundamental belief of mine is that players’ offensive and defensive profiles shouldn’t be assessed independently; often, issues that manifest on one end are related to a player’s behavior on the other. In Tre Johnson’s case, the absence of rim pressure and defensive activity amount to one of the worst cases of applied physicality we’ve seen from any well-regarded prospect in recent memory. In the query below I included all players which met these thresholds in any of their college seasons, no matter the minutes share they played, and included the 14 with the most accumulated ‘Estimated Wins’ to this point of their career (disclaimer these numbers are from roughly the midpoint on the 2024-25 season so may not be exact for active players). The average Estimated Win Total for Top 10 picks since 2008 is 32.4; this group comes in well short of this mark at an average of 18.6 Total Win Shares.

Adjusting parameters in the query in order to cast a wider net and to explicitly search for players whose defensive struggles can’t be attributed to size alone, yielded an even more concerning list. On the left are players within the query with the highest Estimated Win Total. Understanding that a cumulative metric like Estimated Wins could potentially omit recent success cases, on the right are all the players within the query who have been drafted within the past 5 years. The players highlighted below are those who met the query in their pre-NBA season. Virtually all of the players who were selected with high picks, like Tre, were underclassmen whose physical limitations were dismissed as a byproduct of age. And while it’s early enough for these players to shift the perception of their careers, I believe it’s fair to say they have not yet returned value to their drafting team commensurate with the draft capital spent on them.

So, with evidence mounting indicating that, in all likelihood, Tre will be facing an uphill battle on the road to justifying a top 10 pick, what reason is there for optimism? What context would be most amenable to Tre’s skillset, and under what circumstances could a team transform Tre Johnson into an indispensable building block of their roster despite all the evidence to the contrary?

The Two Houstons

The seeds of this piece were planted the weekend of April 4th, after possibly the best stretch of basketball (or at least my personal favorite) so far this year. On that Friday, the recently crowned champion Oklahoma City Thunder were defeated by the Houston Rockets 125-111, and on the next day, a star-studded Duke squad was toppled in a shocking upset by the Houston Cougars 70-67. Both Houston squads came into their respective contests heavily doubted; the Cougars were 5-point underdogs while the Rockets’ spread was set at +6.5 points.

In the Rockets’ case, their victory has probably already been lost to time as an April regular-season win, even over the eventual champions, hardly qualifies as more than a footnote of the NBA season. But the narrative surrounding the Houston Cougars I found much more interesting and in a way was the true catalyst for this piece. For as much respect as I have for the Houston Cougars basketball program I, like many others, was confused as to how a team with no highly regarded NBA talent could have bested a team with three players who could very well be drafted inside of the top 10. Most (well-adjusted) people probably attributed Duke’s late-game collapse to their lack of experience. Per KenPom, Duke was 268th in minutes continuity this season. After a few early-season struggles versus staunch competition, Duke had laid waste to practically every opponent before Houston and as a result they just didn’t have the calluses which can only be formed in tightly contested matchups. This rationale, although flawed, probably does apply, but it still left me searching for a more definitive answer. How were two ostensibly overmatched teams able to overcome a perceived gap in talent and beat two championship-caliber squads? My attempt to find a satisfactory answer to this question has probably transformed the way I think about the game more than any previous exercise.

Anyone lucky enough to watch both games probably recognized the parallels between the two winning teams. Both squads weaponized their physicality via their relentless defense and commitment to the offensive glass to carve out extra possessions.

However, the similarities between these two squads are not confined to their defense and presence on the offensive glass. Further examination shows two almost mirrored stylistic profiles.

The players of both teams also had their individual stat profile curated similarly, with their teams opting for a more egalitarian approach offensively as shown by the tight usage spread between their players.

Even though the significance of these parallels may not be clear at the moment, I believe that because of the Houston Rockets current roster construction, they have positioned themselves to benefit from a market inefficiency which has been exploited by the Houston Cougars for years. And the environment they are cultivating is the exact context where a player like Tre Johnson could be optimized.

The Blueprint

Before delving into the specifics of the relationship between Tre Johnson’s skillset and each of the Houston based teams, I think it is necessary to discuss how the Houston Cougars became such a resounding success, what elements of the Cougars program they should look to replicate, and why the Rockets should consider the Cougar model a roadmap for their own success.

The success Houston has experienced under Kelvin Sampson has been nothing short of unprecedented. Prior to Sampson taking the reins at the onset of the 2014-15 season, the Cougars had been to the NCAA tournament three times in 25 years and were unable to win a tournament game in any of their appearances. When Sampson arrived in Houston, the program was entering its first season in the American Athletic Conference, a league composed of an eclectic group of Conference USA castoffs and Big East schools taking temporary shelter within the conference. Amid the chaos of the ad-hoc league, the Cougars quickly established themselves at the top of the food chain and never looked back.

What is most interesting about Houston’s meteoric rise into the upper echelon of college basketball, is how they managed to attain and sustain their success. Simply put, Houston may be the greatest endorsement for the importance of establishing an identity in basketball, and a cursory glance at their statistical profile would confirm as much.

As we’d mentioned at the onset of the section, Houston’s elite offensive rebounding is no surprise and a consistently low TO% is a staple of any high-performing offense. The success in these two categories making for quality offense shouldn’t come as any surprise. After all, these are pillars of Dean Oliver’s 4 Factors of Basketball Success. BUT what is especially interesting to me is how poorly the Cougars fare in Oliver’s other 2 Factors, Free Throw Rate and Shooting. For being a consistently elite offense for nearly a decade, the Cougars have been comparatively underwhelming with regards to their scoring efficiency. To establish a frame of reference for exactly how rare this confluence of factors was, I conducted a quick query of exactly how often good offenses played this slow with a shot profile as inconducive to success as the Cougars seemingly were.

Since 2008, 53 teams met the query above, with only the 9 pictured meeting these thresholds more than once. The Houston Cougars attained these marks 6 (!!) times. So, how does a team whose offense frequently unfold like the clip below, where the paint isn’t touched ONCE throughout the entire possession, consistently perform to the level Houston does?

What Houston has done to find success at the highest level is implicitly acknowledge the limitations their overwhelming strengths (offensive rebounding) impose on their offense, and they’ve addressed these limitations by strictly and increasingly adhering to the ‘Hands and Gloves’ philosophy.

Houston’s Hands and Gloves

Hands and Gloves is a term coined by the always insightful @nilehoops to describe the symbiotic relationship between players whose skillsets are more based in their physical advantages and players whose strengths are typically utilized in more offensively demanding roles. At the risk of further butchering the definition, here is the quote from Nile’s article articulating the concept.

In the case of the Houston Cougars, they take this concept to the extreme. Despite often ranking in the bottom half of the country in 3PA rate, the Cougars have rostered a bevy of high-volume long-range gunners. Many of which were analytical darlings despite their paltry efficiency scoring inside the arc.

Now the picture is starting to become clearer: in the Cougars’ case, their commitment to maintaining a standard of physicality and rebounding efficacy on the court at all times reduced the potency of their downhill scoring. I agree wholeheartedly with their (assumed) assertion and think the opportunity cost of drives is significantly underdiscussed in the sport. For a team like Houston, where possessions are in short supply, they can ill-afford to risk accumulating turnovers on meandering drives into a congested paint. In addition to the rim aversion present in the majority of guards’ profiles, the lack of playmaking also stands out. Despite almost all the players above being smaller guards (Quentin Grimes and Jherrod Stiggers being the tallest at 6’5), there isn’t a single player with a positive AST%:USG% ratio, again emphasizing how narrowly defined their roles are. The responsibility of ameliorating spacing issues and maintaining the turnover margin falls squarely on these players’ shoulders, with little else outside of this being asked for them offensively. What makes the players pictured above especially unique in the ‘Hands and Gloves’ framework is not just the duty they are tasked with, but the degree of difficulty under which they are asked to execute.

After taking note of these trends within Houston’s teambuilding, I wanted to see if the relationship between a team’s environmental factors was more universal. Specifically, I wanted to see if teams lacking in schemed advantages (as represented by AST%) and multiple spacing options (3Pr) were more prone to placing a heavy burden on the shotmaking talent they did have on their roster. The query below is what I’ve termed a ‘Scoring Stress Test’.

As Mr. Oliver’s 4 Factors would dictate, what these teams sacrificed in their shot quality, they were forced to compensate for in other areas, specifically the TO Margin and Offensive Rebounding. The theory I had posited earlier also seems to be confirmed to an extent, as this query houses some of the best off-the-dribble shotmaking talent of the Bart Torvik era. Below are each team’s leaders in shot attempts for the season in the previous query. Each player is one of the more prolific shotmakers in the country in their respective season, and I do not think it’s coincidental that the two largest players have seen their shotmaking ability translate seamlessly to the NBA.

Now that we’ve established the necessity of high-volume pull-up shooters to teams who find success without traditional markers of an efficient offense, it’s time to discuss this idea’s implications for the Houston Rockets.

Houston Rockets: Closing the Gap

At the time of writing this, the Houston Rockets have just completed a trade for Kevin Durant, sending the Phoenix Suns Jalen Green and the 10th pick in this year’s draft. This trade has been universally praised and for good reason. Kevin Durant is still one of the most efficient scorers in the world, and while Jalen Green is still a promising young player, the value and fit were too good to turn down. With the transaction, the Rockets stand to make a leap not only because of who was traded, but the kind of players that were involved in the deal.

Circling back to the similarities present in each of the Houston teams’ statistical profiles, I want to focus specifically on the sections outlined below.

It is my belief that by trading Jalen Green and acquiring Kevin Durant, the Rockets will make a major competitive leap due to their improvement in these 4 statistical categories. More specifically, the improvement in these statistics will result in the Rockets’ profile bearing an even closer resemblance to the 2024-25 Houston Cougars.

Along with their suffocating defense, the defining trait of the Houston Cougars may be their pace. Consistently ranking near the bottom of the nation, the Cougars would not be able to control the pace to the degree they do without the interplay between their offensive and defensive philosophies. In studies on whether offense or defense has more influence on a team’s style of play, the overwhelming conclusion reached has been that offense has a greater impact on the pace of play. The most evident way Houston goes about suppressing pace is through their offensive rebounding. The two frames below are a perfect contrast in the effect offensive rebounding has on pace and may shed some light on the resurgence of double big lineups.

In both frames, we have the Alabama Crimson Tide, #1 in the country in Adjusted Tempo and the antithesis of Houston’s playstyle. In the first frame, the Crimson Tide are playing Illinois, a similarly modern team that deploys multiple floor spacers along with a stretch big. Illinois runs a ‘Middle PNR’ in 5-out spacing with the ballhandler being Kylan Boswell, who historically speaking, is an extremely ineffective downhill driver. As soon as Boswell steps inside the free-throw line…

…the possession is over. Zero pressure has been placed on the fairly diminutive Bama backcourt to contribute on the glass and they are granted a free release into transition, which culminates in Labaron Philon Free Throws.

Compare this to Houston’s matchup with Alabama earlier in the season, where they are running a similar ballscreen action for an equally limited driver in Emanuel Sharp. Because of their physical frontcourt personnel, Alabama is forced to commit their entire lineup to crashing the glass.

The threat Houston presents on the offensive glass flips the dynamic Alabama saw in the Illinois game. Now, HOUSTON is able to set up their halfcourt defense unencumbered. This forces Alabama to play off kilter and Mark Sears logs a turnover.

Offensive rebounding’s effect on transition play is a fairly well-known concept, and this is an element the Houston Rockets have in spades. The difference in these teams’ ability to establish a pace of play actually lies in their shot profile.

Previously, I’d mentioned the tradeoff the Cougars willingly made between their rim pressure, as represented by their free throw rate and 2P%, and their offensive rebounding and turnover economy. However, there is another, subtler, edge the Cougars gain from removing ‘no-hope’ drives, as you saw from Kylan Boswell in the first clip. By playing a more static style and concentrating on off-the-dribble jumpers and post-ups, the Cougars seldom have their shot blocked. This style of play also rarely puts the defense into rotation, resulting in few drive and kick opportunities and leading to their low C&S (Catch-and-Shoot) frequency over the years. The lack of ‘easy’ jump shots places an acute pressure on their perimeter players to be multifaceted shooters, hence the disproportionate number of off-the-bounce shotmakers on the Kelvin Sampson Cougars.

The relevance of the ‘Average Defensive Poss. Length Percentile’ column in the graphic above is intertwined with the Cougars’ seemingly suboptimal shot diet. In the Cougars’ preferred game state, the margin for error is very thin; along with the turnover variance that comes with drives, blocked shots are a massive variable that cannot be accepted given the constraints of their deliberate style. The devastating effect blocked shots can have on your defense isn’t a phenomenon only present in the NCAA, as Owen Phillips of the F5 pointed out earlier this year. In the past NBA regular season, only Live Ball Turnovers were more detrimental to defenses.

Ultimately, the foundation for the Rockets should be their offensive rebounding and their defense. But because of their proclivity for low-quality rim attempts, there was no top defense more consistently put in disadvantageous situations than Houston.

For context, the r² between Defensive Possession Length and Defensive Rating is -0.47, which by basketball standards is a fairly strong correlation, and the relationship between the two variables is equally intuitive. The more often a defense can prevent early advantages, the lower the offense’s shot quality should be. This is a large part of why we saw higher and higher pick-up points in the NBA this past season and an increased emphasis on turnover generation. The days of thinking of offense and defense discretely are long gone, and the fact that the Rockets mustered a top-5 defense IN SPITE OF their offense actively sabotaging them is highly impressive. And although this was probably not the impetus of the trade, the Rockets may have removed the greatest inhibiting factor to their defense, challenging the Thunder for top unit in the league.

For all the potential Jalen Green has shown as a dynamic and versatile scorer, his personal scoring hierarchy was incompatible with the shape this Rockets roster was taking. Although a score-first guard certainly CAN thrive in the Rockets’ system, it would have to be similar to how the Houston Cougars’ backcourt options have found success: erasing turnovers and relying on prolific pull-up shooting. So far in his career, though, Green has not shown any significant growth in his ability to take care of the ball, as evidenced by his playmaking profile from Databallr.

In Lehman’s terms, Green’s ineffectiveness as a volume scorer has not been offset by sound decision-making as a passer. On top of this, since entering the league Green has finished 1st, 1st, and 4th in Blocked FGAs at the rim. Again, this is in no way an indictment on Jalen Green’s future, but in the interest of maximizing fit for both team AND player, this separation is certainly best for both parties.

Finding the Fit for Tre Johnson

First, for any readers wondering where the previously advertised scouting report is, I’d like to formally apologize for the digression. What first drew me to the idea of writing about Tre through this lens was how specific and pronounced his gifts are. Of course, the shooting is the main draw. I have repeatedly and emphatically stated Tre’s lone season at Texas very well could be the best shooting season from a freshman in the past 15 years. But history would dictate that no prospect with Tre’s negative intersection of applied physicality and defensive instincts could possibly return top-5 pick value. So what is the sell? In short, I believe Tre Johnson could be the ultimate ‘Glove’, and by selecting Johnson a team could take their first step in recreating the revolutionary blueprint laid out by Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars.

The case for Tre Johnson being drafted inside the top 10 is two-pronged. Naturally, it all begins with the shooting, as anyone reading this probably noticed, the archetype most frequently grouped with Johnson in the piece’s initial queries was movement shooter. In an attempt to gauge exactly how much margin for error Johnson’s pairing of feel and touch would give him I conducted the query below, with Ben Taylor’s ‘Offensive Load’ stat used to paint a more complete picture of players’ offensive burden.

Again, Johnson’s profile compares favorably to elite shooters of past drafts, but in Johnson’s case, there’s reason to believe there’s a reservoir of untapped potential compared to past players in a similar mold. Comparing Johnson’s three-point rate and volume to the other players above with the lowest 3Pr in their pre-draft year, Luke Kennard and Tyler Herro, shows the potential trajectory Johnson’s shot distribution could take in the league.

Like Johnson, Kennard and Herro’s college teams struggled to scheme easy opportunities for players. Kennard’s Duke squad was 280th in Assist%, and Herro’s Kentucky team were 194th. When Johnson is dropped into a roster with more connective playmaking talent, he should easily be able to convert some of his contested mid-range attempts into threes.

The Nembhard Corollary

In my opinion there hasn’t been a more fascinating player in the past 5 draft classes than Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard was undoubtedly an elite college point guard, but as a prospect, his statistical profile was fairly non-descript. And compared to other players who are inevitably mentioned as testaments to 2nd round value, its difficult to find the evidence Nembhard was capable of producing to the level he has in the league. What I eventually decided was that the basis of Nembhard’s unexpected success is his exceptional positional size, and in Tre’s case, I believe the same principle applies. When compared to the players in the previous query, Tre ranks first in every measurement and athletic test despite being the youngest of the group.

This should be the foundation of any optimist’s case for Tre Johnson. A suboptimal Texas context, with no significant passing talent to speak of, masked Johnson’s true shooting potential. And when Tre is surrounded by more cerebral, defensively minded, glass-cleaning frontcourt players who can assume some facilitating responsibilities, his potential will be fully actualized.

Currently there’s plenty of evidence that Tre could quickly become a context-changing shooter. Dating back to 2022, Tre has shot 51.8% (29/56) on 3PA coming off screens. Even though Tre is not the most well-rounded athlete, movement shooting is where his athleticism is most functional, and because of the degree of difficulty in his attempts it’s easy to see him placing immense pressure on the defense in this way.

As the season progressed and Johnson became the focal point of opposing defenses (to an absurd degree at times), a common counter was to utilize Johnson as a screener. This is one of my favorite schematic wrinkles, especially in a context where Tre is sharing the court with other non-spacers, utilizing his scoring gravity to trigger mismatches for interior-based scorers should prove effective.

Reorienting Tre’s usage to more of a movement shooter will require more ‘0.5’ decision making, which Tre doesn’t have much experience with at the time. Johnson is much more of a reactive decision maker. Although these aren’t especially challenging reads, I expect this to be a focus early on.

As his processing becomes better aligned with this usage, it will be key for Tre to trim fat from his shot diet as well. Even giving him the benefit of the doubt when accounting for Texas’ personnel, to maximize his potency as a shooter, Tre will need to take these spot-ups instinctively.

In the end, these are quirks in Tre’s game which I anticipate will be ironed out in short order. There’s no real precedent for this precocious a shooting talent failing to translate as a scorer, and frankly, I do not think the shooting on its own is Tre’s ‘superpower’ as a prospect. In my opinion Tre’s penchant for taking care of the ball at such a high usage is truly special amongst scoring prospects.

Above is another ‘Stress Test’ query, but on a player level. On the surface these players do not seem to have much in common, and I’d understand someone’s skepticism in seeing a group featuring one player who is currently playing in China (Tremont Waters) and another who has been above league average TS% 3 times over the course of a 14 year career (Alec Burks) and any desirable company for a prospect. I would argue that this group has the distinction of some of the most resilient scorers in the Bart Torvik era. All of these players demonstrated an ability to manufacture offense independent of their context, and for the players who failed to find NBA success there were typically extenuating circumstances at play. In Tremont Waters’ case his height and inability to shoot early on prevented him from sticking in the league, but even this past season he spearheaded the #1 offense in China. Alec Burks is a more nuanced case, in my opinion Burks came into the league just a few years too late for his game to translate. As downhill guard without exceptional vertical athleticism or the perimeter shooting to keep him afloat, Burks struggled mightily acclimating to the popularization of 3-point shooting that swept the league.

While I don’t foresee Tre experiencing an outlier developmental arc like Donovan Mitchell or SGA due to the previously alluded to physical deficiencies, I am bullish he will become one of the more successful alums on this list for two reasons. First of all, Tre did not have the benefit of being part of a high-level offensive rebounding team, placing an outsized pressure on him to create without logging turnovers. And secondly, I believe Tre’s scoring portability and unique playmaking strengths are tailor-made for the direction the league is headed.

There are 5 games of Tre’s season I found particularly instructive of how his creation situates him to find success at the next level, Texas’ contests with the Tennessee Volunteers and Texas A&M. These teams were two of the best defenses in the country, but interestingly made up 4 of Texas’ 7 best relative performances this season.

Both these teams had stylistic parallels in their aggressive, swarming defense. Tennessee with their frenetic switching, hedging ballscreen coverages, and aggressive gap help. Texas A&M also switched but frequently opted to extend their pressure past half-court to slow down opposing offenses. Both rank near the bottom in the country in opponent 3Pr, willing to cede late clock 3s in order to cut off the paint entirely. This philosophy should sound fairly familiar: aggressive help, comfort giving up 3s, and relentless ball pressure were the defining traits of both NBA finalists! And it was versus these coverages that Tre’s calm under pressure, shrewd interior passing, and dynamic shooting truly shined.

The relevance of Tre’s size amongst shooting-oriented prospects was on full display versus these teams. Johnson was able to make teams play for late and/or lazy switches with his high and dynamic release.

Despite the congested paint, Johnson consistently made high-value passes without turning the ball over.

Johnson’s ability to pass over and around the defense while avoiding turnovers forced Tennessee to tone down their aggression in ballscreen coverages as well. In the first clip for instance, from Texas’ first matchup versus Tennessee, where the Volunteers maintained their hard-hedging ballscreen coverage. Johnson’s ability to keep his dribble alive and see over the lifted bigs allowed him to manipulate and beat the backline defenders in rotation

This occurred to the point where, when the teams rematched in the SEC tournament, Tennessee softened their ballscreen coverage greatly and reduced the nail-help to prevent the defense from becoming overextended. Johnson still managed to find a way.

This is an extremely small sample, of course, and even though the scheme has similar tenets to NBA defenses, these certainly aren’t NBA defenders. But these kind of plays and performances, while always captured in the box score, are what make Johnson the ideal ‘glove’ player in the NBA. With offensive rebounding becoming increasingly prevalent in the league’s meta…

Precise interior playmaking will become a necessity for perimeter players. And Johnson proved himself to be extremely adept with these naturally high-risk passes all season.

Conclusion

It doesn’t take a veteran scout to recognize the flaws in Tre’s game, and typically, any player who requires so many caveats and accommodations should probably not receive the level of investment Tre Johnson inevitably will. But what Tre is representative of, in my mind, is a departure from teambuilding dogma. A player who possesses outlier talent in the areas Tre does can be essential to forming an identity like the Houston Cougars and Rockets have sculpted over the years. What this exercise has taught me is there is a universality to basketball, and any team whose success is rooted in generating turnovers, rebounding, and maximizing the possession battle will require maximal turnover economy and close-quarters scoring from their backcourt. And a guard like Tre Johnson, who has met this criteria at such an early age, would be a defensible choice for any team keeping this roster building strategy in mind. In all likelihood I do not ever see Tre being the best, or even second-best player on a title-winning team, but he does make the acquisition and integration of perennially undervalued interior players a much simpler endeavor. And that may be where the edge lies in drafting Tre Johnson.

The post Finding the Fit: Tre Johnson, a Tale of Two Houstons, and Winning Ugly appeared first on Swish Theory.

Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.

For the third straight season to begin his career, the Houston Rockets are much better when Eason is on the court. And he’s covered his bases, improving a bad team in 2023, a mediocre team (albeit in just 480 minutes) in 2024, and a good team here in 2025. Better yet, the Rockets improve exactly where you’d expect them to, given Eason’s play-style.

In each of the soon-to-be-24-year-old’s first three seasons, the Rockets…

• take more shots directly at the rim
• shoot more free-throws
• grab (far) more offensive rebounds
• force more turnovers
• and thus, initiate transition offense more often

…when Eason is on the court, vs. when he sits (per Cleaning the Glass).

It’s turned out be quite the marriage between team and player. On a team full of quick, long-armed athletes who struggle to shoot the 3-pointer, Eason helps the Rockets play the way they need to play. Throughout Swish Theory’s installments of Finding a Role, including my earlier introduction of this season’s crop of players, Eason may be the closest to having found a role.

Alas, some brake-pumping is required. It’ll be tough to gauge his individual offense in such a unique(-ly congested) offensive environment in these upcoming playoffs, but we should still learn much about Eason’s viability in the half-court. Despite an uninspiring 3-point shooting profile for an off-ball wing (34.6% on 5.3 largely stationary catch-and-shoot attempts per 100 possessions), there are long stretches of off-ball production.

He applies earnest pressure on the rim in his off-ball role, often turning his many cuts into offensive rebounds. Pairing quite well with Alperen Şengün’s work around the blocks and elbows, Eason is timing his movement and recognizes gaps in the defense better than ever before. The first put-back here is an absolute beauty:

His offensive rebounding game blends with his cutting in Houston’s offense. If, say, Şengün or Dillon Brooks miss him roaming the baseline, then Eason ends up on the block, in prime position to put back one of the many mid-range shots the Rockets take.

Thus, Eason is a more willing outside shooter than the raw volume suggests. He doesn’t pass up a ton of open catch-and-shoot threes, even above-the-break; in fact, he’d probably be taking eight or nine 3PA’s per 100 if he wasn’t one of the league’s more active cutters/rebounders from the wing, despite a slow release.

The bigger road-block to half-court versatility (Synergy Sports has Eason has a 22nd percentile scorer in spot-up situations) is what happens when he gets downhill. This strong, rangy Rocket has some athletic deficiencies, believe it or not. A lack of vertical athleticism and flexibility/balance often pop up on his drives. In other words, if Eason has to avoid a defender in mid-air — say on an up-and-under move — he’s likely missing that look:

Eason’s drives finish more smoothly when he gets to two feet, true of most players.

And in fairness, it seems as if he’s made a concerted effort to slow down in the lane, getting to two feet more often. After shooting 56.1% at the rim over his first two seasons, he’s at 63.9% in 2025, much more appropriate for his 6’8″, plus-wingspan frame (Cleaning the Glass).

But as I noted in Eason’s introduction, his passing is likely the key to upping his value, especially in a different team context than Houston’s. His passing numbers still resemble the head-down play-finisher he is, but the flashes don’t. This is particularly true in transition, where Eason is a threat to grab, go, and make a high-value read. In the half-court, there are more tunnel-vision moments, but still plays that resemble his transition game.

It’s not that Eason can’t make the reads. Partially evidenced by his off-ball activity, he understands pressure points and rotations, particularly in advantage situations. It’s when he’s pressed for time — attacking a crowded paint instead of dribbling the ball end-to-end — that his decision-making wavers.

Per Synergy, Eason has only attempted a dozen shots as the screener in pick-and-roll situations this season. The Rockets don’t have a ton of guards defenses need to double, but at some point, hopefully soon, he gets some opportunities in the short-roll. Blessing him with some 4-on-3 situations and more familiar floor balance than dribble-drives should provide some insight as to his play-making ceiling.

Thanks to the NBA’s publicly available tracking data, we know Eason averages 8.4 potential assists + hockey assists per 100 touches, in line with fellow off-ball wings Kelly Oubre and Dorian Finney-Smith, but higher than teammates Jabari Smith Jr. and Cam Whitmore. (For reference, Royce O’Neale, one of the NBA’s great off-ball passers, is averaging north of 20 potential assists + hockey assists per 100 touches.)

If you were completely unfamiliar with Tari Eason prior to this article, and, after reading about his offense, you now had to speculate how he plays defense … I think you could do it.

He creates chaos, with a insane combined steal + block rate a hair under 6% — to be clear, that means nearly 6% of all possessions end with him stealing the ball or blocking a shot:

Of course, Eason is prone to a high foul-rate and some overly risky moments, as with any gambler of his caliber. This is mostly fine with Houston, perpetually eager to get out in transition and avoid running their often stagnant half-court offense.

Still, experience is getting to Eason. There are plays driven by recognition and understanding that he would not have made over his first two seasons. Here, Jayson Tatum uses double-drags, with Eason’s man setting the first screen:

Eason initially switches his assignment, readying for Tatum to turn the corner, only to step back up and offer a strong contest, though Tatum makes the pull-up three anyway.

Though the Rockets are experimenting with Eason’s matchups, he seems more comfortable guarding up than down. His screen-navigation, though occasionally solid, leaves something to be desired…

…and his penchant for poking at the ball can leave him vulnerable to smaller, quicker players blowing right by him.

Conversely, Eason is comfortably boxing out bigger players down low, and even attacking ball-handlers in 2-on-1 situations. Not only can he switch onto opponents, but thanks to his improved awareness and anticipation skills, we could see some drop coverage in his future, similar to Dorian Finney-Smith moonlighting as a micro-ball 5 throughout his career.

Like the Houston Rockets as a whole, Eason’s playoff fortunes could depend largely on matchup. Teams with such limited outside shooting can’t survive any random opponent, just like modern wings. But Eason is truly finding a role, and he helps make the Rockets who they are.

Thanks to his constant pressure on both sides the ball, Tari Eason is going to force his way onto the court come late-April. How that goes, though, is anybody’s guess.

The post Finding a Role: Tari Eason Update appeared first on Swish Theory.

Boston’s Derrick White and Denver’s Aaron Gordon may be high-end examples, but does Dallas make the Finals last season without journeyman Derrick Jones Jr.? Does Miami make it the year before without Caleb Martin?

With that in mind, here is Part One of my Finding a Role Introduction for this season, where I’ll be tracking some of the league’s rising (potential) difference-makers. We live in the here and now, of course, focusing on how Player X can earn more minutes and dollars by increasing his value to his current team, but keep in mind the long-term undercurrent: Can these guys show up as high-end contributors on championship-level teams? How are they going to get there?

Additionally, this season’s installments of Finding a Role would not be possible without crowdscout.net, the brainchild of Swish Theory co-founder Eric Weiss (and company), a truly game-changing way to watch and catalogue film from around the NBA.

Click on the linked playlists for the CrowdScout Experience, and more context on each of these players.

Tari Eason

After being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, Tari Eason immediately made a name for himself by playing real hard and annoying the hell out of most of his opponents throughout his rookie season. However, his sophomore season was ended after just 22 appearances due to lower-leg injury troubles. First a stress fracture, then a surgery to address a benign growth in his shin. Not ideal.

But that sample of play — in addition to his start in 2024-25 — is more than enough to define Eason within Houston’s over-crowded room of young players a leap or two away from changing their careers.

Offense: Bow-Tyer (playlist)

Tari Eason is built like an athlete. He’s listed as 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, and between that and his aggressive defensive style, which we’ll cover, he’s subject to type-casting on offense. Yes, he can crash the glass and finish transition opportunities above-the-rim, but Eason has room to grow into a connective role on that end. Throughout his first two seasons, he showed considerable court-mapping and decision-making prowess despite a relative lack of possessing the ball.

This cut-and-kick creates a corner-three for Houston, and while he perhaps misses a real tough, high-value dump-off to Alperen Şengün, it showcases some skills Eason should tap into more:

Tari will make to the rim if he sees the back of his defender’s head, and he can find the open shooters in transition. This play stands out not because it’s anything ground-breaking, but because he identifies where the advantage will be early. The drive-and-kick itself becomes pretty simple:

There’s really no reason, then, for his career-assist-rate to be hovering below 8%. Eason doesn’t have to be late-career Andre Iguodala in year three, but he’s shown too much court-awareness to have none of his passing stats pop. Yes, he often stands in the corner in Houston’s half-court offense, but ending the closeouts he does attack with extra passes and even higher-value looks for teammates has to be a focus.

However, it bodes well that Eason is finishing strong at the rim to start 2024-25, perhaps invigorated by a successful rehab process. Cleaning the Glass is tracking him at 48-of-66, or 73% on shots at the rim this season, up from his previous career-mark of 56% on 415 attempts.

It’s early. But Eason looks to be a merely competent 3-point threat on low volume, shooting in the mid-30s without many attempts off the dribble or off movement (though it’s worth noting he is just 250 attempts into his career).

Eason has never had a problem getting to the paint, but he hasn’t always pressed the right button to get there. Occasionally he doesn’t leverage his physicality into an advantage, opting for a slow-step or euro type of finish that diminishes his athletic traits. Often times, he’s stunted by a lack of flexibility in his handle, forced to pick the ball up one dribble too soon.

For now, though, he’s solving the issue, and flashing signs of tying the bow on top of Houston’s offense. He can handle in transition, cut to the rim or get there off a closeout or offensive board, and for now, he’s finishing those possessions. Becoming a more consistent passer is the key, and that’ll open up opportunities to get him in the short-roll as a screener or ball-handler in some inverted actions.

Defense: Ball-Hawk (playlist)

Simple. He rebounds everything, and yeah, he may foul a lot, but Eason is currently in the 100th percentile for steal- and block-rate for his position in 2024-25, per Cleaning the Glass. Passing lanes, pick-pockets, swipe-downs, contests as the low-man, you name it, Tari does it.

There is a flip-side, in that he’s occasionally beat on his gambling, and he’s not always in the right positions when it comes to scramble-mode or communicating with his teammates. Last season, playing against the Indiana Pacers, Eason was occasionally tasked with guarding Buddy Hield. He did okay, but it showed that his skillset is more tailored to helping off a non-shooting threat rather than being responsible for the deadliest shooter on the floor. On this play, he survives poor screen-navigation at first, though that’s an admittedly bigger problem than biting on the ball-fake when helps on a drive:

(It’s tough to help off Buddy Hield.)

Houston hasn’t always had the rim-protection to insulate some of his gambling tendencies, though Şengün is looking sturdier in 2024-25 but Eason’s ball-hawking nature is too valuable to be constricted.

This end of the floor is a bit easier to predict for Tari Eason. Unless he’s playing in handcuffs, he’s going to rack up the deflections as a long-armed athlete with plus-anticipation skills. Molding those desirable skills into a team-context where he can more comfortably navigate switches and make funky rotations is an obvious key for him.

Playlist: https://crowdscout.net/p?p=01934941-a5b0-7990-9c53-069a08998d21&i=3329457)

Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick is here to shoot the rock.

Offense: Loose Dynamite (Playlist)

He’s 6’7″ with a high release point, and has shown stretches of being the shot-maker the Toronto Raptors envisioned when they took him out of University of Kansas in the 2023 NBA Draft. As with any shooter, Dick needs to improve on the margins: making the right choice when defenses run him off the 3-point line, not falling too in love with that mid-range pull-up, finishing at the rim, et cetera.

But Gradey has scored 25-plus points five times in his career, and they’ve all come in the early stages of the 2024-25 season. Opportunity has abounded with Scottie Barnes and others missing considerable time for Toronto, but think about the archetype here. Gradey didn’t just stand in the corner and wait to capitalize on advantages that weren’t created, he went out and got 20 shots.

Dick’s shown some malleability off that high release-point, and the anticipation/hand-eye to convert opportunies that he otherwise couldn’t, given a fairly uninspiring athletic profile. On this pair of buckets, he first push-dribbles through a dig, then drops a tough turnaround over Rudy Gobert before floating a moon-ball over him the next time down:

Is this Dick’s ideal shot-profile? No. Does it indicate that he get create real looks for himself outside the limited context of a less threatening stand-in-the-corner white guy? Absolutely.

Gradey’s always going to be a little reliant on organized offense to get his looks off; pin-downs with correct spacing, setting a ball-screen -> coming off a flare, etc. However, on a healthy Raptors team with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley most often toting the rock, Gradey’s gonna need to find other ways to get his shots off. His growing ability to find his spots bodes well.

Of course, making the right decisions when attacking closeouts is paramount, but look for Gradey to keep firing all sorts of 3-point looks. Hopefully, he can use his anticipation and hand-eye skills to find crevasses to get to the rim a tad more, though that floater will be a real weapon for years to come. Ideally, Gradey Dick is a loose stick of dynamite; handle him with improper care and watch your house burn down.

Defense: Chain Link (Playlist)

Gradey Dick isn’t going to become a lockdown defender on the ball, but he’s going to have to bleed a little less on the perimeter. His foot-speed and short-space explosiveness is just alright, so it’s tough when the NBA’s shiftiest guards reject screens on him and whatnot. Here, he deftly switches a screen and then chases Anthony Edwards, of all people, through another one, but Ant dusts him with a simple-jab:

Of course, Gradey Dick cannot give up baseline on this play, and that worry is a part of what sends him flying, in addition to, you know. That play is the result of an off-ball switch, and while the Toronto Raptors won’t ask Gradey Dick to guard all the opponent’s most threatening players, he’ll be put in some uncomfortable situations.

In the meantime, Gradey Dick has to continue communicating with his teammates and showing in the right spots, something he’s done a nice job of for a player early in his second season.

Vince Williams Jr.

Vince Williams Jr. missed the first month of the Memphis Grizzlies season recovering from a stress fracture in his tibia, then returned for three games before spraining his ankle, which will cause him to miss around another month of action. Tough times for one of the league’s funkiest third-year players.

Offense: Gap Filler (Playlist)

In the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the Memphis Grizzlies deployed Vince as a fairly typical wing who was just getting his feet wet with consistent rotational minutes. Then, as the injuries continued to mount and Vince’s skillset became a bit clearer, he blossomed into something of a point-forward, racking up high-assist totals throughout the spring. It’s easy to see why:

Vince struggles to truly separate/blow by defenders with a live-dribble, but if there is an advantage available to him, he will make any sort of pass to get it done. ‘Ambitious’ is the word that comes to mind.

Vince could use a few more live-dribble counters to get to his spots; right now, he’s almost exclusively able to create out of dribble-handoffs or in transition rather than straight pick-and-roll. However, he did shoot 39% from deep as a willing 3-point shooter in 2023-24, perhaps a bit over his head but more than enough to draw closeouts and give his best skills and opportunity to shine.

In the half-court, he’s either taking those looks (and will pull off the dribble if his defender goes far under the screen) or trying to get all the way to the rim. Because Vince is not the most reactive ball-handler, he has trouble navigating tight spaces. While that limits his ability to consistently lay the ball up, his approach is at least partly why Memphis felt so comfortable giving him more responsibility.

Vince will make sure Memphis achieves its desired shot-profile if the ball is in his hands. He will either pass to or shoot from the high-value areas of the court. Sure, he can cut and shoot off-the-ball sufficiently; he’ll make inspiring extra passes. But Vince flies with some decision-making on his shoulders; the short-term question is how he’s going to do this while playing next to Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and even the vaguely similar Marcus Smart.

Defense: Playmaker (Playlist)

I described Vince Williams Jr. as a funky third-year player not just as a term of admiration for his offensive play-style, but his defense too. Memphis tasked Vince with face-guarding their opponent’s best player for damn-near full games last season. From Kyrie Irving to Kevin Durant, Vince was guarding his man often with his back turned to the ball, almost like the football player he’s built like.

This encapsulates the VWJ experience on defense; he’s not always the most nimble at the point-of-attack, and he’s not racking up the deflections quite like Tari Eason, but he is a playmaker nonetheless. Vince is fantastic at contesting shots all over the court, but his verticality and ridiculous +7 wingspan really plays at the rim:

Despite his fundamentally sound skills there, Vince can be a bit of a risk-taker on the perimeter, and frequent gambles and pokes at the ball puncture holes in his point-of-attack defense. A tad too often, offensive players are able to create space by bumping him off course, surprising given his frame and physicality when sticking to guys off the ball.

Where should his skillset meet his role? Indeed, he is a playmaker on defense, with active hands, strong anticipation skills, and an ability to offer secondary rim-protection, but perhaps it is telling that Memphis stuck him on so many bona fide perimeter threats last season. Next to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies may need him to buckle down, get through screens, and move his feet against smaller, shiftier players.

Nearly everything Vince does on a basketball court is interesting, but his role on Memphis’ defense is really something to look out for when he returns from injury.

This has merely been the first part of Finding a Role, 2025. There are a couple boys from Brooklyn I’ve yet to mention, but that will come at a later date.

Meanwhile, I will be re-visiting these three players frequently throughout this season, tracking progress in the aforementioned areas, as they look to establish themselves as upper-middle class NBA players who can make or break a contending front office. Can Gradey Dick’s ancillary offense push a championship-offense over the finish line? Will Tari Eason oversee and control playoff games on both ends of the court? Can Vince Williams Jr. toe the line between experimenting and producing at the highest level?

Those are all long-term questions, but they’ll be answered season-by-season, game-by-game, quarter-by-quarter, and Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series is here to track all of it.

The post Finding a Role: 2024-25 Introduction appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

Born as a combo forward, Horry channeled, shaped his disruptive energy into a controlled power forward endowed with quick processing ability that shined at providing whatever his teams needed to compensate for what their stars lacked—a terrific recipe for a long and successful career.

However, it isn’t his skillset that made him such an interesting, magnetic player.

With his 7 rings, he is the most winning player of the modern NBA but was never considered a first-tier player throughout his career. This intersection of factors made him a polarizing figure in the collective imagination. On one hand, a segment of fans consider him a legendary player with almost superhuman qualities. On the other one, some just consider him one of the luckiest players ever.

Moreover, Horry forged his legend hitting important shots in crucial moments throughout his whole career. There’s certainly a luck component in his story and all the rhetoric about the clutchness can be cloying. But Horry’s “big shots” tell us a clear thing: He could stay on the floor in the most important possessions of a season. That’s not given, but rather a sign of how he didn’t have major flaws that opponents could exploit and play him off the floor.

So novices and romantics are bewitched by his “clutchness” and swagger. Some viewers discredit and despise him for what he represents in “Ring Culture.” Amid all this noise, Horry the player can become blurry.

What I asked myself was, simply: “what was he like on the floor?”

CRIMSON BLOCK BOB

After a decorated career at Andalusia High School ended with the Naismith Alabama High School Player of the Year award, Robert Horry committed to Alabama and enrolled as a freshman in 1988.

He went through a steady development and by his senior season he was the clear defensive anchor of the team and a solid offensive player, while Latrell Sprewell was the first offensive option.

During his career at Alabama, Horry looked like a prospect who would’ve become a Draft Twitter darling nowadays. He was a lanky, lengthy 6’9/6’10 forward who excelled as a team defender, could check players on the perimeter, and had a solid base of connective passing and shooting. And he looked like a White Men Can’t Jump (that ironically premiered during his senior season and its trailer was shown during the games’ broadcasts) or The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air character with his swagger and that sick fade haircut.

His defensive potential was obvious. He was consistently running up and down the court, defending centers and forwards, pressing full court on smaller players, rotating and deterring shots, flying around sending attempts into the stands. He wasn’t the most refined or the physically strongest defender but his energy and instincts mixed with his anticipation and great hand placement made him an overwhelming defensive presence.

Horry was a true stocks generator: he averaged 3.5 blocks and 1.5 steals during his senior season. Obviously, blocks and steals aren’t everything, but his numbers give an idea of the level of his disruptive defensive nature and overall dynamism. 

For reference, Shaquille O’Neal had 157 blocks in the 91-92 season, while Horry had 121. They were the only players in SEC history to finish a season with at least 100 blocks at the time.

(Yes, that’s Shaquille O’Neal blocked by Robert Horry)

Just for reference to further understand how special these numbers were, he still is Alabama’s all-time leader per career blocks at 286 in 134 games.

However, at Alabama, he was required to do a lot of the post-up stuff that was considered the bread and butter of every respectable power forward at the time. With his thin frame and his relatively weak lower body, this kind of traditional playstyle didn’t suit him.

Also, he wasn’t only a disruptive defensive force, he was also known for his unruly behavior. Indeed, he wasn’t always able to keep his temper in bounds and was prone to excessive fouls and complaints.

The towel thrown to Danny Ainge that marked the end of his brief and forgotten Suns experience or the infamous hip check on Nash (maybe he still had some resentment towards the Suns?) are two clear examples of his excesses on the court. However, maturing he became way more controlled than his early years.

At this point, we had begun to see Horry in his flexible, energetic defense. His offensive role was more unclear and would eventually be defined in the NBA.

HORRY, THE ROCKET

After his Senior season ended with a loss against North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Robert Horry was drafted with the 11th pick in the 1992 draft by the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets were headlined by All-Stars Hakeem Olajuwon and Otis Thorpe and were coming from a chaotic season in which they replaced coach Don Chaney with his assistant and Rockets legend Rudy Tomjanovich.

As a rookie, he immediately claimed the Rockets’ starting small forward spot in place of Buck Johnson who signed with the Washington Bullets as a free agent the previous summer.

Horry clearly was perceived as a defensive-first player early in his professional career. He had pretty simple tasks on offense but was probably lucky to find on his path a coach like Rudy Tomjanovich who believed in his perimeter potential anyway and didn’t try to confine Horry into a more traditional frontcourt role. Tomjanovich played a major role in shaping his offensive game in those early years.

While on defense he had important duties as a free roamer starting with covering the less dangerous forward on the floor, on offense Tomjanovich built for Horry an easier role founded on his energy and dynamism. He was contributing mostly through opportunistic scoring, cutting, and crashing the offensive glass with continuity.

Watching the tape I heard a comment from the broadcaster that expressed efficaciously what was Horry’s role in the Rockets’ offense at the time:

“Every time Olajuwon apparently is in trouble, Robert Horry is his bail-out guy, he’s always moving, slashing to the basket, cutting”

In 1994, Horry still played mostly as a small forward next to Otis Thorpe and Hakeem Olajuwon. Having a 6’9 lengthy defender at small forward alongside two other true big men raised the Rockets’ defensive floor. Indeed, they were second per defensive rating in 1993-94 at 101.4 in the regular season. And if we want to summarize that team, they were a defensive juggernaut almost completely dependent on Olajuwon on offense.

As a sophomore, Horry was already a well-established starter and played 33.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. It’s impressive how he was able to carry the burden of such a large and meaningful role that early in his career. It’s incredibly rare to find a sophomore able to do it on a contender.

A GLIMPSE OF FUTURE

This game-winning shot against the Magic in 1995 is just one of the many clutch shots that created Horry’s legendary fame and this single possession tells us a long story about the 1995 Rockets.

Hakeem Olajuwon, defended by a young Shaquille O’Neal, receives the ball in the low post with a well-spaced offense around him, draws the double-team, and kicks out to Robert Horry on the left wing for the game-winning spot up three.

That was their new reality.

But let’s start from the beginning.

It’s always hard to repeat success after winning a championship and the Rockets learned it in the first half of the 1994-95 season. After being undefeated in the first 9 games of the season, they went 20-16 and realized something wasn’t working anymore. Soon after a bad loss against the Clippers, the worst team in the league, they traded for Clyde Drexler who was on an expiring deal with the Portland Trail Blazers and explicitly expressed his interest to join the Houston Rockets.

On February 14, the Rockets sent Otis Thorpe, Marcelo Nicola, and a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for the 32 years old Clyde Drexler and Tracy Murray.

Drexler is a University of Houston alumn as well as Hakeem Olajuwon, a reunification was strongly desired by the longtime friends.

“I can’t wait for the first game, I really can’t. He’s the best player in the league, and it’s been a dream of ours ever since we left the University of Houston to play together again.”

Clyde Drexler to the Associated Press

Otis Thorpe was a meaningful part of the team that won the ring the season before and drastically changing your structure on the run requires a lot of courage. But that move paid off and put them and Hakeem on another offensive level.

The 3-point line, which was 23 feet 9 inches at its farthest point in ‘93/’94, was moved to 22 feet before the 94/95 season, and this allowed Tomjanovich and his Rockets to became one of the very first teams in NBA history (along with the Magic they faced during those Finals probably) to fully take advantage of three-pointers and not attempt them just as an extemporaneous solution.

They went from a .191 team Three Point Attempt Rate in 1994 to .267 in 1995, an important shift in their shot distribution.

They turned from a team with a traditional, tough, physically imposing playstyle with two bigs to a futuristic setting that allowed them to deploy several 4-shooter lineups around Hakeem Olajuwon.

Horry was the key to this evolution.

At this point, after a couple of seasons with limited attempts and results, he had become a reliable shooter that could knock down enough spot up threes to force defenses to pay attention to him.

Moving on from the 2-big structure and putting Horry at power forward, in a kind of primordial stretch-4 role, increased significantly the Rockets’ offensive ceiling. Otis Thorpe was a great player, an All-Star, but his lack of a long-range shot hurt the spacing and limited their offensive ceiling.

Horry was also crucial because he was an acceptable defender against many power forwards. During the ’95 Playoffs run, he was the primary defender of Charles Barkley, Dennis Rodman, and Horace Grant. Karl Malone was the exception. Against the Jazz, the Rockets were spending other less relevant players like Chucky Brown or Pete Chilcutt on a physical freak like “The Mailman,” while Horry was permitted to float on the other forward with the license to rotate and help at the rim.

The Rockets set the NBA record per attempted and made threes during the 1994-95 season. They attempted 21.4 threes per game and 22.7 per 100 possessions in the Regular Season. These numbers went up during the 1995 Playoffs: they attempted 22.0 threes per game and 23.6 per 100 possessions, making them at a 39.1% rate. These are more threes than what the Spurs attempted in their legendary 2014 run. We have to take into account that the three point line was closer to the rim in 1995 but that’s an incredible accomplishment anyway.

Teams just weren’t structured to cover that much ground defensively. And limit Hakeem Olajuwon with that much space around him was simply impossible. For example, the Spurs were a great defensive team and Robinson was arguably the best player in the league to try to stop them defensively but they were regularly lining up too many big bodies.

Ironically this was probably the most modern version of Robert Horry. At this point of his career, he was an agile help side defender with a 0.423 three point attempt rate. That’s the profile of someone that would thrive in today’s league, a profile with its outline seen in first-year player Taylor Hendricks, for example.

HORRY, THE LAKER

In 1996, Horry became the Rockets’ “sacrificial lamb” to meet Charles Barkley’s request to be traded to Rudy Tomjanovich’s team.

His forgotten experience with the Suns lasted only 32 games and ended with the infamous “Towel-gate” and a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers.

“I hated Danny Ainge, I’m not even gonna lie. I hated him. We beat them so many times when he was in Phoenix when I was with the Rockets. Mario Elie is one of my good friends, and in one of the playoff games, he took the ball out – Danny Ainge was a pitcher – he hit Mario in the face with the ball on purpose.”

Robert Horry on the Big Shot Bob Podcast

The duo composed of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal was pretty much identical conceptually to the Drexler-Hakeem duo. With Phil Jackson and his triangle, they probably even had a more traditional approach than the ’95 Rockets.

Does this possession remind you of the Olajuwon-Horry synergy?

In addition, Horry was a great performer for the Triangle Offense. The “triple post offense” is a position-less kind of basketball and ideally, every player on the floor should be able to play every fundamental position of the offense.

Horry’s skillset and versatility allowed him to play pretty much in every position of the offensive schemes. He excelled as the “weakside wing” thanks to his cutting and his intuition for offensive rebounds. His shooting and passing were well suited for the Key, Wing, and Top of the Key positions. The Post position generally was occupied by Shaq but he could be a decent performer on the run or when the triangle was changing the side of the court.

An example of the Lakers’ “Triangle” initial setting.

In this kind of offense, it was crucial to be able to throw decent passes to the post player, the vertex of all three of the triangles. Horry was a great entry-passer from every non-post position on the floor. He clearly developed this (once?) fundamental skill throwing thousands of passes to Hakeem Olajuwon.

In his Lakers experience, he wasn’t an actual starter anymore but still generally was part of the closing lineup.

He also proceeded in his transition into a more “traditional” power forward. He was bigger and his upper body looked stronger, though also made him less agile in space. This development was probably intended to make his life easier against the big power forwards of the early 00s.

He had more duties as a rebounder and as a screener; he wasn’t strictly a spot up shooter but he was allowed to put the ball on the floor if needed. That was probably the context where he had the most diversified offensive usage during his career.

Even the stats give us an idea of how his role changed compared to his Rockets seasons. His rebound percentages, his free throw rate, and his stocks percentages all saw a positive trend. What you would expect from a combo forward transitioning to a more strictly big man role.

His rebounding was on full display during his seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers. He used to set strong box-outs, with good technique and crafty use of his elbows on the edge of the rules and was pretty quick to recognize the angle of the ball after the rebound.

The matchup with Chris Webber was emblematic of his type of rebounding. Webber (an awesome, underrated player in my opinion) was more of an athletic rebounder, his box-outs weren’t always on point and Horry’s gave him trouble. In the 2002 Western Conference Finals, Horry averaged 11.1 rebounds per game with a 23% defensive rebound percentage compared to his career playoff average of 16%.

During his Lakers’ tenure, his game was refined from experience while his legs still had fuel left. In the early 00s, with the evidence of his pivotal role along Shaq and Kobe, his incredible ability to fill the gaps left open by the stars of his teams, the real x-factor of his career, became striking.

HORRY, THE SPUR

Robert Horry signed with the San Antonio Spurs in July 2003, at almost 33 years old, on the wane of his career. He couldn’t offer much more than 20 minutes per game consistently, he was slower and mostly a spot-up shooter at that point of his career.

However, he was a perfect piece in Gregg Popovich’s basketball idea, which has always been founded on ball sharing and individual processing, and still managed to have an impactful role for at least further 4 seasons.

“He does everything well. He can defend. He can run the floor. And — as we all know — he can hit big shots. We’re excited to add a player with his skills, experience, and leadership to our team.”

R.C. Buford commenting on Horry signing

From a skillset standpoint he was pretty much always the same but this was probably Horry’s most cerebral version. He made up for his athletic shortcomings with a high level of understanding and anticipation. He rarely committed major mistakes and his execution was almost flawless.

He was fundamental on Popovich’s chessboard to allow him to change identity on the run, going from the bigger starting lineups with two bigs (Nazr Mohammed first and Elson, Oberto later) to the lineups with Duncan at center. 

Ten years apart from that game-winning shot against the Magic, Horry made probably his most iconic shot in Game 5 of the 2005 Finals against the Detroit Pistons, a series-swinging moment that represented the ideal crowning of his career.

That game is a prime example of the late Horry and his overall (inexplicable?) nature.

He struggled defensively for three quarters against Ben and Rasheed Wallace’s physicality and provided a limited offensive contribution. Then he scored a three pointer, suddenly woke up from his torpor, and dominated the 4th quarter through rebounding, shooting, and attacking the always more pressing closeouts.

“He’s just Mr. Intangibles, he’s everywhere and you must pay attention because he keeps things alive under pressure on your offensive board”

Hubie Brown during the broadcast of Game 5 of the 1995 NBA Finals

BIG SHOT BOB, REASON & EMOTION

Trying to capture Robert Horry’s true essence is a challenge that puts a strain on the rational, analytic basketball viewer. His figure goes beyond what can be measured and quantified and can raise questions and doubts about our vision of basketball.

As we saw in this article, the majority of his success can be explained without the need to use vague, mystical terms like “clutchness.” Considering his skillset and his key tactical role, it’s easy to understand why he was so crucial for his teams despite his generally unimpressive raw numbers. And his futuristic ability to fill the gaps of his team (isn’t it what we generally require to power forwards nowadays?) that made him a desirable target for competitive teams completes the big picture here.

However, even the most rational observer can’t ignore the fact that he seemed to have a different drive, a different inner motivation (boosted by his increased relevance on the chessboard?) when the pressure was higher. He apparently had an internal flame that blazed the most whenever the lights shined the brightest, something more appropriate for a psychology essay than a basketball article.

And this part of his figure is probably what made him one of the most legendary, special, and loved “normal” players in NBA history.

The post FILLING GAPS – A Retrospective on Robert Horry appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

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Entering his 2nd year with the Houston Rockets, Spanish Forward Usman Garuba seems to be finding his footing. The former 23rd pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has been anchoring the Rockets best lineups, and impacting the game with his energy and defensive intensity. Garuba has thrived so far this season, being in 4 of the top 6 lineups in net rating on the Rockets. Garuba is still very raw, and it is evident in his game. However, his impact on the court is also evident, and makes him one of the better defenders in the NBA.

Offense

Offensively, Garuba is still very rough around the edges. Although his lack of shooting and handling is also a concern, one of his biggest weak points is his inability to control the ball. Garuba often fumbled passes, allowing the ball to bounce off his hands and away from him. This became an issue with passes, rebounds, gathers… basically anything that involved putting both hands on the ball. His inability to hold onto the ball became a cause of struggle, although it has seemed improved so far this season.

Where Garuba has shown some improvements is in the short roll. Usman has a good feel for passes, although sometimes makes reads a tad too late. He will often miss reads to open guys behind him, as he still lacks the awareness and handling ability to turn around a find them. However, he is still a decent decision maker in these instances around the nail, and has shown flashes of being able to punish defenses in this low-volume connector role.

A necessary improvement in his game will be spot up shooting. Usman could easily play in a PJ Tucker style role offensively, if he can respectably hit the corner 3. He is a bit too short to be a consistent roll man, so this could be another route to success for Garuba offensively.

Defense

Where Garuba will make his career is on the defensive end. Garuba is a versatile defender, quick enough to stick in front of smaller wings, but long enough to guard some of the biggest big men in the league. He averages near 2 blocks and 2 steals per 70 possessions, and has stood out on many defensive metrics across the board. The tape shows this as well, as Garuba’s hustle and determination to disrupt plays has been one of the staples of the Rockets’ defense.

An adjustment he will need to make that has been slowly happening is his over-aggression defensively. In Spain, Garuba was allowed to use his body to lunge into balls, push guys around and utilize his size in a more brute manner. Now, in the NBA, he needs to learn how to be less physical. Although he hasn’t fouled as much as expected in the NBA, his over-aggression does occasionally lead to unnecessary fouls or over-playing plays, giving the team open looks. By being more disciplined, Garuba can become the all-defensive level player that many hoped for pre-draft.

Overall

Playing behind Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith, it might be hard for Garuba to get consistent minutes moving forward. With recent reports stating that Garuba will be playing behind Bruno Fernando as well in the rotation, Usman will likely have to fight for his minutes throughout the season. Luckily for him, his play-style relies on defense and hustle, two things that will help cement you into a rotation. With work on the shooting touch, helping him understand reads and improving his hands, Garuba could see himself being a game-winner on the court with his intensity and impact on the defensive end.

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Drafted 3rd overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, Jabari Smith Jr out of Auburn University may be the most “safe” player out of his class. The 6’11” forward made his mark on the SEC as a disruptive defender and a knockdown shooter. On an Auburn team with fellow draftee Walker Kessler, Jabari led Auburn to one of their better seasons of recent. Now, on a young energetic Rockets team with guards Kevin Porter Jr and Jalen Green, Jabari will have plenty of on-ball reps to improve offensively and reach the star potential that made him the 3rd overall pick. At the very least, he has a route to become one of the elite shooters in the NBA.

Offense

While Jabari does convert at the rim at a decent rate, he lacks the on-ball skills and strength to really excel at the rim. More of a straight-line driver, Jabari CAN attack closeouts, but is often better suited simply shooting over the defender. Jabari shot 42.2% from 3 last season, a number many believe he will be able to match at the NBA level given his quick, high release. A below average passer and ball-handler, Jabari will see the majority of his touches coming in cuts, catch and shoot opportunities, and offensive rebounds. Smith shows flashes of being able to become an elite post player as well. His high release and long strides allow him to create space, and with a soft touch, drop in many post fadeaways. With some additional skill development, Jabari can become a great second option for the newly built Rockets next to budding superstar Jalen Green.

Defense

What makes Jabari stand out compared to other big sharpshooters is his defensive versatility. Jabari’s long frame and defensive instincts make him an incredible shot blocker, but his quick feet and smooth lateral movement help him keep up with smaller players. Jabari’s low and wide stance on defense allows him to switch onto guards, and his quick load time and high vertical allow him to contest almost any look. In Houston, his role on defense will, much of the time, likely be similar to that of a small ball 5. On a small Houston team, Jabari will be tested early against bigger centers, something he did not need to do much at Auburn. However, Jabari is still very skinny for his size, and with NBA strength training could bulk up to be able to guard stronger players well.

Conclusion

Jabari Smith will find plenty of opportunity early in his career to improve on his weak points offensively, and next to two electric scoring guards, Smith should have many open looks to showcase his marksmanship. While he has some obvious spots for improvement to reach his ceiling, at his worst Jabari will still be an impactful player on both ends of the court, with consistent effort on defense and spreading the floor offensively.

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