This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

Such is the current situation that Troy Weaver is a part of, or it would be if he paid attention to Twitter. There is no indication that there is any actual heat under his seat. But the Pistons’ faithful have expressed their exasperation with the third 11-plus game losing streak since last season’s deadline. With this kind of losing, questions arise. 

Is this Weaver’s fault? That is the question of the season if not this generation of Detroit basketball.

Questioning the Vision

It has been the case for a while that fans have questioned what exactly Troy Weaver is working towards. Sure, there were the jokes across the league about Weaver having a roster full of centers, yet when Duren got injured this season, the team was suddenly playing quite small. So what is the vision?

As basic as it is, talent is the vision. Two-way talent more specifically. Weaver wants to cultivate a culture with elite defensive acumen, athletic expertise, and good humans. He wants players who will come in every day and put in the work. Be accountable. Want to get better and improve their team and community. For many organizations, this would feel like a cliche at best. For a man who drops a creative cliche when given the opportunity (like talking about Halle Berry at church and the grocery store), it is who he truly is. 

So while this rebuild is in the beginning stages of its fourth season, Weaver should be judged on those merits, given that that is what he was hired to do. This roster has clearly not taken the turn into contention, so assessing those goals matters. Yes, fans want the play-in, playoffs, and more. But if that was not the actual organization’s objective, those stakes do not really matter. 

Nailing the Draft

The easiest part of Weaver’s job to assess has been drafting. This was his area of expertise when he was a part of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise. So far, it is hard to argue with his success. His draft picks are as follows:

• 2020 seventh pick – Killian Hayes
• 2020 16th pick – Isaiah Stewart
• 2020 19th pick – Saddiq Bey
• 2020 38th pick – Saben Lee
• 2021 first pick – Cade Cunningham
• 2021 42nd pick – Isaiah Livers
• 2021 52nd pick – Luka Garza
• 2021 57th pick – Balsa Koprivca
• 2022 fifth pick – Jaden Ivey
• 2022 13th pick – Jalen Duren
• 2022 36th pick – Gabriele Procida
• 2023 fifth pick – Ausar Thompson
• 2023 25th pick – Marcus Sasser

For anyone counting at home, that is five first-round picks to make All-Rookie teams, with this year’s two looking on track to add to the total. Cunningham and Duren look like future All-Stars. Ivey does too on certain nights. Thompson has been astounding defensively in his month. Isaiah Livers was a second-round pick and looks like a cemented rotation player when healthy. 

The Foundation

For anyone expecting Cade Cunningham to come in and be an All-NBA level floor raiser this season on a consistent basis was likely putting the fan in fanatic. He just recently passed a full season’s worth of games played and is adjusting to a rod in his leg. Yes, the flashes of brilliance are exciting. Against the Indiana Pacers on November 24, Cade had an 18-point quarter as he was finally not facing two to three blitzing defenders per possession. Getting turnovers under control is his biggest hurdle, and he knows it.

When Duren has been on the court, Detroit is a noticeably better team. During the first couple weeks of the season, the Pistons were roughly middle of the pack defensively despite starting an entire lineup of players 22 or younger. Once Duren went out with his nagging injuries, the team fell to 27th. This is not an accident. While JD still needs to refine his skills, he provides a foundation for the rest of the team to fall back on. 

Further cementing that foundation, Weaver nailed selecting Ausar Thompson with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. Thompson has already proven to be an elite defender and rebounds better than most bigs in the league. He is currently tied for sixth (with teammate Jalen Duren) in offensive rebounds. With solid playmaking instincts, the only thing that needs to come together is any ability to score. Ausar can get to the rim, but conversion remains a problem. 

Bonus Points

If you can have a three-year rebuild (because that is all you can assess Weaver on to this point) having selections like Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Livers, and Marcus Sasser being secondary really bolsters the resume. 

Stewart, to many, is the heart and soul of this team. In a perfect situation (one that involves a healthy Bogdanovic perhaps?), Stewart would be the big off the bench who provides defensive upside and the ability to space the floor. So far this season, the promise of a shot is finally being realized, converting at a 41.4 percent clip on more than three attempts per game. If this sustains, defenses will be forced to respect him out there, creating additional driving lanes for Cade, Ausar, and Jaden Ivey.

Ivey, for his part, has had the toughest task this season. Monty Williams singled him out as the player with the most bad habits that he required to be corrected. This led to him coming off the bench for the first few weeks and Twitter being in an uproar, firing up the trade machine. The vision started to pay off, though. 

Williams insisted that Ivey would have to improve his decision-making on both sides of the court to see an increased role. Nights like this (while also going off for 25 points) build confidence for both player and coach that the process is working. 

Livers has only been back for a few games but he is the ideal floor spacer for a team desperately in need of wing spacing and defense. Marcus Sasser has been a homerun for a pick in the 20s, and for more on him check out Charlie Cummings’ recent article. 

The Elephant in the Room

Killian Hayes has been a point of contention, and the ever-ascending star of Tyrese Haliburton has only made the comparison more glaring. Hayes is the only first-round pick for Weaver so far that feels like a miss, so naturally, he is the most discussed. 

Hayes being a starter for much of this season to date is about more than coaching stubbornness, though. Accountability has been essential and Ivey needed to prove that he could break some of his bad habits. For better or worse, those bad habits are things Hayes does not have. He averages less than a turnover per game (Ivey averages more than two per game, Cade nearly five) and he is an attentive defender. Stardom may not be in the cards, but Hayes certainly fills a role. 

Yes, Hayes feels like a miss, considering players like Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey were in the same class. But most teams would look back at the pandemic draft with myriad questions that never had a chance to be answered. Since then, Weaver has lived up to his reputation as a drafter. Building a team beyond that, however, is more of a mixed bag. 

Team Building

When Troy Weaver overturned the entire roster in his first year, fans should have known that he was going to be willing to build the team in his own vision. Aforementioned big man jokes aside, he has done just that. He has taken chances on reclamation projects. However, he has also shown the recognition that veterans are necessary to augment the young talent. 

This year more than any, the pieces fit on paper. Plenty of youth. The veterans on the team are all efficient, unselfish, and willing to do what it takes to improve the team. So what has been the issue so far this season?

Excuses/Reasons

The most frustrating reaction for someone who is trying to be logical is one of pure emotion. At the beginning of the season, it was announced that Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Livers, and Monte Morris would be out for at least three to four weeks. At the time, everyone acknowledged that things would be rough and that the team would struggle. 

One month later, Livers has played 48 minutes. Bogdanovic has yet to return (maybe this week) and Morris had a setback that could keep him out closer to Valentine’s Day. Somehow, facing the exact struggles that the fans said they expected has come as a surprise to many. Removing three solid floor spacers and that take care of the basketball has led to a team ranking 21st in 3-point percentage and 29th in turnovers. 

This, obviously is not Weaver’s fault. Nor is it on him that Alec Burks and Joe Harris have combined to miss 15 games through 16 games. Duren and Ivey have missed 11 combined. Everyone deals with injuries, but for a young team not considered by many to be deep this is not an excuse. It is a reason. 

Troy’s Starting Point

It feels silly to have to reference this four years in, but when fans compare the state of the rebuild to their contemporaries there is an important context that far too often gets forgotten: the starting point. 

Orlando was able to fast-track their rebuild by turning Nikola Vucevic into Wendell Carter Jr. and two future lottery picks. Oklahoma City and Houston turned multiple former All-NBA players into bounties of draft picks. Even Indiana was able to swap out one star for a younger, better one. Detroit did not have this luxury. The previous regime waived Reggie Jackson and traded Andre Drummond months before Weaver came to town, netting only a second-round pick in return. 

Blake Griffin was the only “star” that Troy inherited, and he too necessitated a buyout to get out of town. The only “star” trade that Weaver was able to make was one of his own engineering. He believed in Jerami Grant when most of the league thought he overpaid and turned him into drafting Jalen Duren after two mostly positive seasons. 

What Was Actually Available?

Yes, it would have been nice to use the cap space this past offseason to bolster this roster. It has been clearly stated that the core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren need help to make a push toward the play-in. Even if Bogdanovic, Burks, Livers, Morris, and the rest had been healthy for the entire season this roster was still depending fully on internal development to make that push. So who would have been available to grease the wheels to progression?

The unfortunate truth is likely, not much. Spending for the sake of spending could have led to throwing a max contract at Cam Johnson, or doing what Houston did, despite how much Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks would have stunted the reps for Ivey and Ausar Thompson. Beyond that, the free agent market last summer left plenty to be desired but not much to be had. 

When you see the likes of the Memphis Grizzlies strike out on trades despite offering multiple first-round picks, it is tough to imagine what avenues Weaver failed to explore. Trading a first-round pick remains encumbered by the trade of a protected first for Stewart in 2020. Beyond that, who is the right player to go in for? Zach LaVine? Meh. Could it have made sense to try to overpay for someone like Kyle Kuzma or get in the market for a John Collins? Perhaps, but those opportunities will present themselves again.

So what is actually wrong?

On Court Concerns

Some of this is an on-court concern that you could attempt to blame Troy for, but at the end of the day, it falls on the players. If fans believe that Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and others are impact players (which fans seem to agree on), then the blame ultimately should fall on them for some of the issues. 

It made sense for Monty Williams to make Jaden Ivey break bad habits to earn his place on the court. Accountability while learning is what real organizations do. However, that also comes with growing pains. 

Fans would ask, “Is the defense improved enough with Killian Hayes starting over Jaden Ivey” as if the single-game results were the most important thing. Bringing in a coach on a record-breaking contract for six seasons is about the long haul, not the first month on the job. Given that the young players are showing signs of improvement already while learning a new scheme is that evidence. 

There are other rotation questions that many will ask, sure they know better than the career coach. Such is life for a franchise in the midst of its third 11-plus-game losing streak in 2023. But the process is still understandable on the whole.

Is Troy blameless? No, no one in the league does a perfect job and there have been missteps. Making the move for James Wiseman was a gamble, and it did not pay off. There are still some fit questions surrounding the young core of this roster. However, many believe that you take the best available player when you had been this bad and figure the fit out as you go along.

Where We Stand Today

Personally, there is no real rush, despite the fan base’s outcry. It is preferable for Troy Weaver to not rush into a trade or signing just for minimal short-term gains. If the right move presents itself, absolutely. Maximizing Cade Cunningham, specifically, is the most important task that has faced this franchise in 15 years. 

So far, Weaver has done well. He has done very well with the draft. Signing Monty Williams was a coup at the time and so far, there is noticeable progress from the core young players despite the lack of wins. 

Rebuilds take time. Most fanbases are not built for it. Even worse for Detroit, the restoration under Weaver comes after a decade of incompetence and mediocrity. Given that, fans are ready for something different, namely, winning. Weaver is on track to that, even if that includes at least one more top lottery selection. He has had mixed luck with the lottery. Landing the top pick in a draft with a player like Cade Cunningham, however, supersedes plenty of other factors. 

Would things look different if, instead of sliding to fifth in consecutive drafts with top odds, Detroit was sitting with someone like Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero or Victor Wembanyama, or Brandon Miller? Sure. Would fans be able to hold onto a vision more fully formed had something completely out of the control of their general manager bounded differently? Indeed. 

Twitter is for overreactions and those will not be going anywhere. With any luck, neither will Troy Weaver. His vision makes sense if you can stop the Twitter fingers to think.

The post Troy Weaver: Is This Working? appeared first on Swish Theory.

For the Detroit Pistons, the scale was always going to be a little different than the rest of the league. Coming into the year there was hope for a step forward for a young core to maybe push towards the back end of the play-in, something like the seasons had by Oklahoma City and Indiana. 

Then, Cade Cunningham went down and everything changed. For each player or group of players, we have defined the goal of season goals in this longer-term framework, with an eye to creating a foundation for the future. In a rebuild, everyone is working towards different ends, making measuring by statistics or wins nearly impossible. Context matters, and often makes all the difference. 

However, before getting into the players, I would be remiss if I did not start with the now-former coach. 

Dwane Casey

Goal: Continue to develop and foster a Pistons culture

Result: Exceeded

Yes, Dwane Casey just coached the team that posted the worst record in the league by five games. Over the last four seasons, Detroit has won 80 games. Be that as it may, it is tough to look back on the job Casey did negatively. 

Were there times when veterans got more minutes than some fans would like? Certainly. But the list of players who showed clear improvement under his watch is notable. Christian Wood put together his best season, resulting in an eight-figure deal (he has since failed to click with any coach).  As you’ll see as we continue, many of the players that follow on this list took marked steps forward. 

Even more surprising, the culture spearheaded by Casey and general manager Troy Weaver is impressive given the utter lack of consistency due to injury or any sustained level of success. You could tell players were frustrated by losing, but it never boiled over. There were never any reports of discontent or infighting, a rarity for a young rebuild. Everyone seemed to be on the same page and just wanted each other to get better. Casey deserves credit for being that leader.

End of Rotation: Kevin Knox, Jared Rhoden, Stanley Umude, Braxton Key, Buddy Boeheim

Goal: G-League Fill-Ins

Result: N/A

Also known as the back end of the roster, this group just did not play enough to really measure much of anything. Four of the five played under 300 minutes in total. Kevin Knox saw far too many minutes for most early in the season, averaging 14.1 per game over 42 games.

This group of young players is the type of players you have on the back end of the roster. The point is to see if something pops. When so many players missed notable time throughout the season, they should be there to soak up more minutes.

Given that only Knox was able to push into the rotation under the circumstances tells you plenty about where they stand. There was no goal here. These players mostly filled in as G-League call-ups at the end of the bench. 

Nerlens Noel

Goal: Serviceable bench big

Result: Missed

Nerlens Noel logged similar minute totals to the previous group but does not have the excuse of being a younger player. After being part of the salary dump alongside Kemba Walker that netted the Pistons the pick that would become Jalen Duren, Noel really never fit with the team. 

Noel was thought of as a decent rim protector off the bench who may end up turning into a trade asset at the deadline for a team looking to fortify their front line. Instead, Noel suited up for just 14 games in the Motor City. He only played more than 20 minutes twice and never reached double figures in points or rebounds.

After there were no bites at the deadline, Noel took a buyout and played just three games in Brooklyn. This could be the end of the road for the former lottery pick. He has played just 42 games over the last two years for three different teams. He did not seem exceptionally bought into a mentorship role, either, so the avenues for continued employment may be drying up. 

RJ Hampton/Eugene Omoruyi

Goal: Show they belongs in the league

Result: Met

Two young players brought in for the stretch run of the season, both RJ Hampton and Eugene Omoruyi were looking to prove that they deserved a place in the league. Despite their varied paths, Hampton and Omoruyi showed that young players are not necessarily defined by their first steps. 

Hampton was a former five-star recruit. He has played for three teams over the last three seasons and continues to show flashes. His 27-point outburst in the last week of the season may have caught some eyes, he reached double figures in eight of his 21 games. Will he be a star? Doubtful, but he could be a solid fourth or fifth guard to provide a scoring spark.

Omoruyi was a little more of a surprise. Two different colleges. Undrafted in the 2021 draft. Four games as a rookie on a two-way contract for the Dallas Mavericks. This season, he was on the Oklahoma City Thunder for 23 games before landing in Detroit. 

After two successful 10-day contracts, the Pistons had to keep him for the rest of the season. Eight of his 17 games saw him score 10 or more points. He just looked comfortable. It would not be surprising to see him back on the roster next year. 

Cory Joseph/Rodney McGruder/Alec Burks

Goal: Take the next step as a veteran presence

Result: Exceeded

One of the more underrated aspects of a rebuild is finding veterans who are there to help build. They are not worried about their own output at the cost of a younger player. Helping that growth keeps them in the league and could eventually lead to something more. 

Cory Joseph has been here for three seasons, often feeling like an extension of his coach on and off the floor. Joseph is a more than suitable backup guard for most situations. With so many young guards on the team, having a leader in the locker room to help them grow in that role is essential. 

Rodney McGruder is the consummate professional. There have been stories written about how so many players consider him the dream teammate, most notably from James Edwards III at The Athletic. Having someone like him to be a sounding board for young teammates is how the season was able to not spin into drama like other rebuilds. 

Alec Burks had the most on-court impact this season of this trio. Once he was able to return from injury, Burks was a walking bucket. He was the 15th-best 3-point shooter in the league, nailing 41.4 percent of his 4.7 attempts. If the Pistons had made him available, he would have found himself contributing to a real team. Given their desire to push for competency next season, keeping him around makes complete sense. 

Cade Cunningham

Goal: Take the next step to stardom

Result: Incomplete

Come back to review Cade Cunningham next season. He only played in 12 games this season before finally addressing a long-standing injury. Averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists while getting accustomed to two new high-usage teammates, however, is plenty of reason for optimism. 

Marvin Bagley III

Goal: Live up to the contract

Result: Missed

Plenty was made of the contract given to Marvin Bagley III last off-season. Troy Weaver had long been enamored with the former second-overall pick. After trading for him at the deadline last year, he was always going to be brought back. After signing a three-year $37.5 million, it was important for him to play up to that contract. 

This season was not that. Some of it is injuries. Between hand surgery and ankle issues, Bagley was limited to 41 games. However, even when he was in the lineup, consistency remained an issue. He would consistently put up numbers, like his 21-point, 18-rebound performance upon returning to the lineup, but the defense left plenty to be desired.

Given the lack of consistent rhythm, Bagley remains the key front-court prospect most likely to be moved. While a two-big system was the plan under Casey, it remains to be seen if Weaver will want that with his next coach. Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren are unlikely to be displaced by Bagley. Wiseman, acquired at this year’s deadline, stands to get a continued look as well. Bagley has been fine. But is fine worth that price point as the team looks to improve?

Saddiq Bey

Goal: Find your role

Result: Missed, at least in Detroit

Probably the most disappointing Piston of the season, Saddiq Bey came in with lofty of expectations. As a rookie, he was a flamethrower from distance and looked to be a foundational building block. Last season he tried to do more to diversify his game and struggled overall. 

This season, it was more of the same. He continued to shoot 34 percent from distance and was inconsistent on defense. His role was compromised by the addition of Bojan Bogdanovic. Isaiah Livers fit the more limited role better while being cheaper. 

Bey has found his role more coming off the bench in Atlanta and will remain a what-if for Pistons fans. He was shooting just 24.3 percent from 10 to 16 feet this season, down three percent from a season ago. Since moving to the bench in Atlanta, that is up to 42.9 percent while he is shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Being the first first-round pick under Troy Weaver to be moved is an ignominious fate for Bey. Given how hot he was after his rookie season, this is not where anyone saw this going, moved at the deadline to take a chance on James Wiseman. However, by the time it happened, it made far too much sense.  

Hamidou Diallo:

Goal: Build toward his next deal

Result: Exceeded

I do not have to go much deeper into this. Two weeks ago I dove deep into Hamidou Diallo. For me, his goal this season was to garner a stronger foothold in the rotation and become an interesting free agent on the market this summer. Coming off his most efficient season finding a role to play should do just that. 

Isaiah Livers:

Goal: Become a rotation fixture

Result: Exceeded

Unless you were an avid participant of Pistons Twitter, your expectations for Isaiah Livers were likely not that high coming into the season. After playing just 19 games as a rookie you would have to have been a homer to expect Livers to become something to build upon. 

Livers, simply put, made Saddiq Bey expendable. Seeing real minutes saw his efficiency dip some, but he still converted from beyond the arc at a 36.4 percent clip. He continues to profile as one of the better defenders on the team, able to guard two through four reasonably. 

This will be essential if the team expects to turn the corner in any way next season. Only Bogdanovic and Burks were more effective floor spacers. The term “3-and-D” is overused but for a team building from the ground up, spacing is essential. For a team in the bottom five in defensive rating, having someone on the roster ready and willing to contribute on that end is required. Livers is a core piece for this franchise going forward. 

Bojan Bogdanovic:

Goal: Show he can contribute regardless of the situation

Result: Exceeded

The best player on the team for the largest chunk of the season, Bojan Bogdanovic surprised many. Those outside of the 313 likely figured he would be swapped out before long for draft compensation. 

Instead, Detroit signed the veteran to a two-year extension because of how much he embraced the situation. They needed a veteran player who brought it every night that could fit the young core. Bogdanovic does all of that. 

Posting the highest usage rate of his career (25.9) led to other career highs, specifically points (21.6) and assists (2.6). Even better, he was still extremely efficient, posting .488/.411/.884 shooting splits. Defense remained an issue, but with a tanking team that is part of the equation anyway. As the team looks to build a defense around the roster Bogdanovic will become even less of a liability. 

This was not supposed to be the usage level that Bojan faced this season. He was supposed to be a benefactor of Cunningham, not a usage-level replacement. The fact that he was able to shift into that when his younger teammate went out was a bright spot in a dark season.

James Wiseman:

Goal: Find a role

Result: Met

There was a varied response when Detroit traded for James Wiseman at the trade deadline. Some fans were bummed to see Saddiq Bey go. Others were intrigued by the potential of a former second-overall pick getting a change of scenery and opportunity. Plenty got off their jokes about too many centers. My initial reaction was documented here. 

The early returns on Wiseman are mostly positive. Starting 22 of 24 games, Wiseman averaged 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds. He would be among the top 30 offensive rebounders in the league if his number in Detroit was his season-long mark. He even developed decent chemistry with rookie Jalen Duren, promising signs for a team intent on playing two bigs often. 

However, the future is still a question mark. This team will likely be looking to get minutes out of Duren, Wiseman, Bagley, and Isaiah Stewart in the paint, if not a potential number-one overall pick if the lottery smiles on Detroit. However, Wiseman showed that he plays well here and is willing to put in the work. Even if a move to the bench is more likely, there is a role for Wiseman here, which is a step forward. 

Isaiah Stewart:

Goal: Find his shot without losing other skills –

Result: Met

There have been whispers for a while that Isaiah Stewart could be a floor spacer. Given the changes to the roster, he would have to be. As a rookie, he played 100 percent of his minutes at center, followed by 98 percent in his second season. Any sort of change to playing with another big would be an adjustment. Furthermore, it would risk diminishing what he brings to the team.

Luckily, this concern was mostly assuaged. Splitting time between forward and center nearly evenly, Stewart was able to develop in what was a lost season for the franchise he played for. Part of this saw him attempt nearly double the 3-point attempts that he had taken over the combined first two seasons of his career. While his 32.7 percent conversion rate was below the league average, it is also somewhat misleading.  

He shot 36.6 percent from deep in the 2022 portion of the season, making the believers salivate. January saw him limited to nine games due to injury, and he shot just 11.5 percent. Despite making a third of his attempts in February, injuries ruined this mark. 

Stewart still showed enough to prove that this was something that could work. He and Duren make for a menacing paint presence, overflowing with muscle and verve. If he can continue to defend like a bulldog and space the floor just a bit, the ceiling is higher than some may imagine. 

Jalen Duren:

Goal: Earn real minutes, flash starter signs

Result: Exceeded

It is truly hard to remember that, at the beginning of the year, plenty were unsure if Duren would be able to force his way into the rotation. As the youngest player in the league, there were reasons to think he may start in the G-League. 

Instead, Duren looks to be a likely bet to make second-team All-Rookie. He was the best rebounder (8.9) among rookies and a top-five offensive rebounder (3.4) in the league overall. Also, he shot the eighth-best field goal percentage (64.8) in the league among players taking at least five shots per game.

Duren is offensively ahead of schedule. Mostly this is due to his game essentially being rim running, post-ups, and lobs. The defense needs work, but again, he is only 19. He missed the team’s primary playmaker for all but the first nine games of his career.

This is a prime example of why expectations matter for grading. For many players averaging 9.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in 24 minutes per game would be a shrug. When it is the league’s youngest player who came in expected to be the third or fourth big on the team, the success is clear.  

Killian Hayes:

Goal: Locate the vicinity of his shot

Result: Met (kind of)

Inconsistency will forever remain the issue with Killian Hayes. Defense and passing came into the season as known skills. For him to prove that he was an actual NBA player worth investing time and money into, let alone a team that has Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and the potential of drafting Amen Thompson or Scoot Henderson, he had to find his shot.

Hayes was top 25 (6.2) in assists and steals (1.4). He also shot just 37.8 percent from the field and 28.0 percent from beyond the arc. Frustratingly, there were stretches where promise was shown. From November to the NBA Paris game, Hayes shot 35.7 percent on 4.0 3-point attempts per game. That is more than a third of the season. It looked like he had finally put it together. 

The after-Paris stretch was truly ruinous. Over the last 32 games, Hayes shot 21.1 percent beyond the arc. Yes, he posted the first consecutive 20-point games in his career to end the season, including a career-high 28-point outing. 

Hayes is up for a contract extension this offseason. If that hot stretch had continued throughout the year, that would have been a likely possibility. Now, it would be irresponsible for the Pistons to not play this out into next year’s restricted free agency. 

Jaden Ivey:

Goal: Be one of the top five rookies

Result: Met

This goal was pretty easily defined by his draft position. Jaden Ivey was taken fifth overall in the 2022 draft, so the hope was that one year in he would still be ranked around that level. There were up and downs as expected, but overall the early returns are impressive. 

Ivey finished third among rookies in scoring (16.3), first in assists (5.2), and third amongst guards in rebounding (3.9). After the All-Star break, he improved to 19.3 points, 7.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds while drilling 36.4 percent of his 3s. 

The absence of Cade Cunningham, while brutal for most of the roster, may have been the best thing for Ivey’s development as a rookie. He was able to see significant on-ball reps early and often. He spent time sharing the court with other guards, allowing him to see the game differently. With Cunningham coming back, he will be sharing the court with a different player than he saw after the first 12 games. 

As someone who was unsure of the fit coming in, consider this my mea culpa. Ivey proved he can play on- or off-ball. Cunningham showed that last season. The duo will be one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league in short order. Kudos to the Pistons for being able to boast that. 

The post Pistons Season Review: Assessing the Rebuild appeared first on Swish Theory.