The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The upcoming series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks is projected to be one of the closer ones. In this series, I do schematic deep dives on either team, and explore the hypothetical questions that I believe to be the key points of interest for the opponents.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Scheme

Empty Side

The Cavaliers run a three-out two-in offense with heavy motion from their guards. They push empty side pick-and-rolls as much as any other team in the NBA. They’ll push these early in transition.

Part of optimising their two inside big men is by rotating them as the empty side screener, though you’re more than likely going to see Mobley as the screener and Jarrett Allen in the dunker spot when they run this. Their overall philosophy in early offense is optional ball screens, giving Mitchell and Garland structure but not robbing them of freedom. The presence of Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot gives them easy buckets if the defense is collapsed. He’s in the 90^th percentile for half-court scoring efficiency.

Wedge Action

One of the Cavs’ most common actions out of their base offense is running wedge actions. This is simply an angled screen to the baseline. They run these for Evan Mobley to give him a chance to post-up or attack off the catch. Here they run Wedge Action to generate a look for Evan Mobley. He turns the ball over on this play (I’ll get to those issues later), but they get him in space on an empty side with ease.

The Cavaliers don’t do this as a one-shot type play though, they have many other options and counters from it. Here they run ‘wedge roll’ which is as it sounds. They then flow straight into a pick-and-roll.

Sometimes the mere threat of the option is enough to give them more cushion on pick-and-rolls. Here Darius Garland flows straight into a pick-and-roll and essentially ignores Okoro attempting to set the wedge screen for Allen, with the help defense occupied by the potential of this action.

Teams are hyper aware of the Cavaliers’ wedge actions and they fear them because empty side actions are the main way they try and ease spacing concerns. The play below illustrates a nice counter the Cavs have for it.

You see the Pacers sitting under Okoro for two reasons. One is because they don’t really respect him as a shooter, but the premiere reason is that they expect the wedge roll action to come. Garland sees this and pitches it to Mobley and Okoro screens Garland’s man as they flow into Delay Chicago action. It’s great offense and shows JB Bickerstaff’s attention to detail.

Flex and Rip Concepts

I’ve labelled this “flex concepts” because the Cavs don’t run the entirety of the flex offense, but they like to move their guards through the paint in screen-the-screener type actions which is the absolute epitome of what the flex offense is all about.

On this play, the Cavaliers don’t create an advantage out of the wedge action I mentioned above…

…so they pitch to the screener and go into a pick-and-roll with Darius Garland eventually setting a flex screen to get Evan Mobley to the low block. They initially didn’t get Mobley good post position but showed a multi-faceted approach to get it on a counter.

Such things don’t exist in Basketball analysis to my knowledge, but if there was a heat map that tracked players movements, I’m almost certain that the Cavaliers guards would touch the paint off-ball more than any other team due to their flex and rip concepts. These guards are deployed off-ball moving through the paint very regularly.

I enjoyed this play shown below.

They pitch to Isaac Okoro, but watch Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They flow into an initial ‘floppy’ action (a double screen set for someone to emerge from the paint). After it doesn’t get an opening, Garland cuts to the other side on the flex scissors action and Okoro hits Evan Mobley for the dunk.

If one play summarised Cleveland’s Philosophy it’s this: these guards work for their touches out of flex concepts. This ties in with Bickerstaff’s overall philosophy. He loves the chin offense which is why he’s a perfect fit to coach a team with two bigs.

They often run these plays to try and alleviate spacing concerns. Mobley-Allen isn’t a great perimeter spacing duo as of now. So basic spread concepts aren’t really going to reap rewards. Here the Cavaliers run some flex action before flowing into an empty side pick and roll.

If you’re trying to get a big line-up to work, your guards have to do their due diligence off the ball as you ideally want to maximise the big men as elbow hubs. The Cavaliers do a great job of this when they run ‘Rip’ Action such as below. Rip action is merely a player back screening then receiving the ball.

With Ricky Rubio healthy, these sets have even more of a ceiling for the Cavaliers because his processing speed is borderline generational. Here they set up a Cross Screen for Lamar Stevens and Donovan Mitchell comes off a pindown after setting the cross screen, but Rubio sees the defense tilt away from Caris Levert in the corner and they get an easy look.

Pistol

Any team with two elite guards is going to run pistol action. While I wouldn’t call this Cleveland’s absolute staple, it’s another way they can create empty side actions and give high value touches to their lead guards. Below is the absolute most basic luck and their typical structure out of it.

Both of their lead guards in the same action. They go into a pick-and-roll. The opposite side spacing has their small forward and then Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot. They bail out to him on this play and he hits the floater. He’s in the 62^nd percentile for efficiency on these shots so it will be intriguing if teams live with this one and possibly sell out elsewhere.

They also use pistol to flow into delay action and to generate empty side actions like in the play below.

They look as if they’re going to flow into Delay Chicago after the initial pistol exchange. Instead, Levert cuts all the way to the weakside and they go into an empty-side pick and roll. Teams often blitz these so Mobley’s rolling can be highly fruitful on these actions.

Here things get a little more exotic, as they run Pistol Rip Empty Hawk.

Garland receives the ball from Mitchell. Mobley backscreens for Mitchell then comes up to set the screen (this creates the same advantage as ram action). They flow into an empty-side pick and roll and Mitchell cuts through the paint and comes off a double stagger which is Hawk action. It’s another illustration of Cavs guards moving off-ball, but also creating empty side actions out of multiple scenarios.

They run the same play against the Blazers here. This time Garland dribbles towards the empty side when he sees Nurkic in drop. The Hawk action occupies the defense and Garland scores the layup.

They also mix some ‘veer’ action into their pistol offense. This involves a screen for a ball handler, with the screener then darting elsewhere to set an off-ball screen in the same action or motion. Here they run it against the Orlando Magic.

On this occasion they do it to try and attack Bol Bol on the empty side pick-and-roll with a step up screen. Sometimes though they just do it to free up a shooter and create an advantage for Garland or Mitchell such as here.

Good offenses mesh all of their concepts together. I noted earlier how the Cavs like to use their guards on flex and rip concepts, here they tie this together with pistol.

They have the initial pistol action with Mitchell then going straight in a double drag action. This is deception for ‘rip’ action for Darius Garland who comes off a screen, then sets a backscreen of his own before darting for an open three. It’s a great example of how the Cavaliers Empty Side and Inside to out guard cutting concepts all meshing.

Ram

The Cavs also like to run ‘ram’ action, where a screener comes off a screen before screening for the ball-handler. They like to do this mixed with different secondary actions as a way of trying to freeze or occupy defenders. This is as they don’t have natural outside spacing with Mobley and Allen. They’ll often run this more against teams who play drop coverage. They run it here against the Rockets.

Mitchell is the initial screener for Jarrett Allen, and then exits to the perimeter off an Evan Mobley screen. The execution will need to be more flawless in the playoffs but the logic is to occupy the defense in a way Evan Mobley just being stationary on the perimeter wouldn’t occupy it.

They’ll often run it if they have smaller line-ups too such as here against the Orlando Magic.

This time, the exit action occupies the help defense the whole way, and Darius Garland essentially walks into an easy bucket when his man gets caught on Evan Mobley’s screen. It’s one of their most common concepts.

Here, they run a ‘small’ variant of Ram action with more inverted philosophy.

Donovan Mitchell this time receives a screen from Jarrett Allen and then Ghost Screens for Darius Garland. Allen chases it immediately and Garland once again walks into a wide-open bucket. They’ll use this ‘Ram Short 77 Ghost’ to try and force switches.

On the play below, they use it in a way that raises hypothetical questions about the action.

They have Jarrett Allen be the on-ball screener, and Evan Mobley executes ‘Short’ Action which is a cut to the strongside. Notice how it freezes the defender and Allen can get a free lane because of this as the Ram gave him some extra room at the beginning of the play.

The hypothetical question they will have to answer in the Knicks series is whether they’re better with Allen or Mobley as the on-ball screener. Allen is more likely to have Mitchell Robinson on him and he may feel comfortable playing free safety in that scenario. But Robinson is extremely disruptive at the level of the screen so having Allen as the screener might create more difficulties for the offense. They’ll likely mix things up, but this will be interesting to monitor.

My good friend Bowser also clipped another play similar to ram, known as ‘New Zealand’ Action.

This involves a ram screening action on the empty side. This may be something they go to in the playoffs if things stagnate with their more common actions.

Double Drags and Horns

Like any team trying to maximise a big frontcourt, the Cavaliers optimise Double Drags, and I think they’ll run these more in this series than usual. This is largely because a double screening action can put real strain on Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme as they prioritise defending the paint so may leave shooters open if the Cavs opt to use a guard in the action. They also quite commonly switch 4-5 so the Cavaliers may get some matchups they like. Here, they run ’77 Small’ with Donovan Mitchell ghost screening. Darius Garland then puts Dillon Brooks in the torture chamber.

The Cavaliers have done a great job mixing in these ghost screens. Here on this play against the Heat, Mitchell ghosting creates chaos.

Though the Knicks may be organised at the point of attack than Miami, they can still get beneficial switches and potentially get bigger defenders off Garland. It’s essentially they run these ‘small’ variants of double drag.

I love how high they set some of these double drag screens like they do here against Memphis.

The Cavs routinely have the second screener roll pretty quickly. Look how tough it is to defend. The Knicks will defend it in a similar way with trying to contain the drive. Expect to see the Cavs run a load of these.

As I’ve mentioned throughout this article, counters are important. On this play the Grizzlies try and get ahead of the action so Mobley rolls quickly and Darius Garland executes ‘get’ action which is receiving your own pass on a dribble handoff.

A key theoretical of the double drag comes with regards to Evan Mobley. The Knicks will almost certainly leave him open. They do with just about any popper in a double drag set. But Mobley needs to be aggressive. This is what will swing the series for Cleveland. Here against the Knicks he pops and takes Obi Toppin off the catch.

Though Toppin won’t see the floor often, it’s still an important play. He has to be willing to be decisive. Indecision kills offense more than inability at times. The Knicks will defend these double drags high and likely have Mobley’s man tag the roller. Hartenstein and Robinson will be containing the drive. He has to be decisive.

Cleveland also mixes in Horns Sets as a way of trying to keep the opposition center outside of the paint. Here they run a classic- Horns Ghost Flare.

Horns concepts are good because they can generate quick hitters for their elite guards while creating matchup problems. Using the gravity of their star guards early in actions just creates some incredible moments such as here where they mesh Horns and turn it into a Spain-Pick-And-Roll.

Spain Pick-And-Rolls are nightmarish anyway, and the Cavaliers mixing it with Horns is just excellent offense. It maximises the gravity of their guards and keeps bigs at the level. Spain PNRs can be particularly fruitful against the Knicks because it tests Tom Thibodeau’s philosophy of always having his low man tag the roller instead of defending the corner shot.

Cleveland also likes to use Ghost screens out of a Horns outline to generate favourable switches.

This will be particularly relevant in the Knicks series because Darius Garland can definitely get bothered by size, though it’s not a gigantic concern for me. Ghost screens in general are very good and they hold a big purpose for the Cavaliers.

The New York Knicks Defense

Now that I’ve looked at the Cavaliers diverse scheme, we should look at the New York Knicks defense. Per a source with Second Spectrum, the Knicks are 7th in the NBA in drop coverage frequency, and 2nd in at the level coverage. They rarely hedge or trap or play zone. They are aggressive at helping from the nail which is a staple of Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme. He prioritises defending the paint with a 5-man wall and expects his wings and guards to rotate to open shooters. The strong side defense looks something like this.

Note both corner defenders aggressively helping towards the paint. Hartenstein being up towards the level. Immanuel Quickley helping off his man to try and disrupt the roller. Some teams run teams off the three-point line with aggressive and close rotations. The Knicks escort you off of it at the top of the key then make your driving path as miserable as possible.

Here’s what the defense looks like in video form. Note how they’re in drop coverage on this occasion.

Note Julius Randle tag the roller, and then making RJ Barrett responsible for ‘splitting the difference’ between the two perimeter guys. Thibodeau’s wing defenders need to be instinctive, reactive and aggressive. Here the Knicks recover out to Darius Garland and force a shot they’re comfortable with from a structural perspective.

My general Hypothesis for this series is that empty side actions will decide the series. The Knicks love Empty Side Pick-And-Rolls for Jalen Brunson because the ‘counter punch’ out of it is baseline fadeaway jumpers, which might be Brunson’s strongest shot as his offensive ability off the planted pivot foot is elite.

Above I’ve mentioned how the Cavs love empty side actions and how the majority of their core actions can be to set up these empty side actions. It makes sense to explore how the Knicks defend these actions and ponder how fruitful they might be.

If the empty side action takes place on the right side and the screen is taking the guard towards the open side, they’ll generally be in ‘ICE Coverage’. This means they’re funnelling the play towards the sideline and essentially using the out of bounds line as an extra defender. It looks like this.

If the screen is set to the left side of the guard, the Knicks will mix up coverages. Here against the Wizards, they have Hartenstein drop so Kyle Kuzma just takes his man into the paint and hits the fadeaway.

Against the Cavaliers, empty side coverages can be complex and tricky because Garland and Mitchell are both incredibly shifty, and Allen and Mobley are such good screeners. Their ability to be unpredictable with the personnel can make a one size fits all scouting report difficult. I expect the Knicks to mix in some at the level coverages simply because Darius Garland is incredibly shifty off the dribble against drop coverage. Like what do you do with this?

Randle tries to drop and deal with Mobley, Barrett has to help away from Donovan Mitchell. Brunson isn’t active, and Jericho Sims is concerned about Jarrett Allen. Weirdly, Allen’s allergy to the perimeter can actually benefit the Cavs against Thibodeau’s strong side defense. He’s more concerned with Allen at the dunker spot than he would be with a corner shooter, philosophically.

This time, Hartenstein starts at the level of the screen. But once Garland gets a step on his man it’s close to over. Hartenstein is juggling being in the driving lane with mirroring the roll-man.

Note in this play how Quentin Grimes doesn’t really help off of Donovan Mitchell. Their approach to this will be intriguing because if you do help, even momentarily, you risk Mitchell being able to create off the catch and go like he does here. It’s generally clear though that a smaller guard on Garland without any nail help probably isn’t going to end well.

The Little Things- What the Cavaliers Can Do

Playoff series come down to micro adjustments more often than you might think. Here are a few things I think Cleveland can do to potentially make life easier for them.

The first, is setting higher screens. Given the Knicks like to be in ICE Coverage on these empty side actions, you can really cause havoc by setting the screens higher.

Note here that the entire empty side is genuinely empty. It’s because Randle has much more ground to cover in order to enforce the ‘No Middle’ ideology. Mobley also has more rolling room. I think high screens can genuinely really cause the Knicks problems in this series. I’d also attempt to get Randle and Brunson in actions as much as possible. Neither are awful defenders but they’re a step slower than their team-mates.

Here, the Cavaliers do the same with their ‘ram’ action.

Look at the gap between Grimes and his teammates before the action even happens. You could park a car in there. Mitchell makes Randle dance by faking the right drive, then makes Grimes dance before hitting the pull-up three. A good way to delegitimise nail help is to just set the action really far away from it.

Putting Donovan Mitchell or Garland in the actions as an off-ball threat should prove fruitful. I think their wedge set in particular could be a nice way to test if the Knicks want to trap. Here against Portland, the Blazers run wedge roll with Anfernee Simons setting the wedge screen for Nurkic.

Thibodeau wants to maintain structure above all else. No middle at all costs. Putting your best players in the action really tests this because your nearest help defender has to worry about a star moving off-ball. They could walk into good jump shots or just generally get the defense on the back foot with how they position guys.

Generally, I think pre-action is needed to really get at the Knicks. Make them work and force them to make quick decisions. Thibs wants teams to play slow against his defense. Something as simple as what Minnesota do here, would suffice.

The Wolves trigger the ICE Coverage with a quick pass to Mike Conley on the empty side. Gobert rolls, and when Randle tags, Conley hits Kyle Anderson who is able to manipulate the help defense to create a wide open three. Generally, forcing these nail help guys to be as reactive as possible is a good way of winning games. Generally, their target should be to get these with pre-action and higher screens.

In Summary

Overall, this might be the most interesting first round series of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavaliers offense is diverse and fluid, and the Knicks defense is really tough. Evan Mobley needs to be aggressive, and the Knicks help defense will need to be on point. The battle of the nail help defenders likely decides this series. I’m not meaning to underestimate the Knicks defense, it’s an immense unit. I just think there are ways Cleveland can attack it and that’s what I’ve tried to explore in this series. I hope you enjoyed.

The post The Most Interesting First Round Series: Cavs vs. Knicks appeared first on Swish Theory.