Jalen Duren Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/jalen-duren/ Basketball Analysis & NBA Draft Guides Tue, 28 Nov 2023 17:08:56 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://i0.wp.com/theswishtheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Jalen Duren Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/jalen-duren/ 32 32 214889137 Troy Weaver: Is This Working? https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/11/troy-weaver-is-this-working/ Tue, 28 Nov 2023 17:08:54 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=9251 Losing will always make fans look for someone to blame. Someone to fire. Even if losing was part of the long-term plan, fans tend to lose sight of that when they struggle to think of more than five wins in nine months. Such is the current situation that Troy Weaver is a part of, or ... Read more

The post Troy Weaver: Is This Working? appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
Losing will always make fans look for someone to blame. Someone to fire. Even if losing was part of the long-term plan, fans tend to lose sight of that when they struggle to think of more than five wins in nine months.

Such is the current situation that Troy Weaver is a part of, or it would be if he paid attention to Twitter. There is no indication that there is any actual heat under his seat. But the Pistons’ faithful have expressed their exasperation with the third 11-plus game losing streak since last season’s deadline. With this kind of losing, questions arise. 

Is this Weaver’s fault? That is the question of the season if not this generation of Detroit basketball.

Questioning the Vision

It has been the case for a while that fans have questioned what exactly Troy Weaver is working towards. Sure, there were the jokes across the league about Weaver having a roster full of centers, yet when Duren got injured this season, the team was suddenly playing quite small. So what is the vision?

As basic as it is, talent is the vision. Two-way talent more specifically. Weaver wants to cultivate a culture with elite defensive acumen, athletic expertise, and good humans. He wants players who will come in every day and put in the work. Be accountable. Want to get better and improve their team and community. For many organizations, this would feel like a cliche at best. For a man who drops a creative cliche when given the opportunity (like talking about Halle Berry at church and the grocery store), it is who he truly is. 

So while this rebuild is in the beginning stages of its fourth season, Weaver should be judged on those merits, given that that is what he was hired to do. This roster has clearly not taken the turn into contention, so assessing those goals matters. Yes, fans want the play-in, playoffs, and more. But if that was not the actual organization’s objective, those stakes do not really matter. 

Nailing the Draft

The easiest part of Weaver’s job to assess has been drafting. This was his area of expertise when he was a part of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise. So far, it is hard to argue with his success. His draft picks are as follows:

  • 2020 seventh pick – Killian Hayes
  • 2020 16th pick – Isaiah Stewart
  • 2020 19th pick – Saddiq Bey
  • 2020 38th pick – Saben Lee
  • 2021 first pick – Cade Cunningham
  • 2021 42nd pick – Isaiah Livers
  • 2021 52nd pick – Luka Garza
  • 2021 57th pick – Balsa Koprivca
  • 2022 fifth pick – Jaden Ivey
  • 2022 13th pick – Jalen Duren
  • 2022 36th pick – Gabriele Procida
  • 2023 fifth pick – Ausar Thompson
  • 2023 25th pick – Marcus Sasser

For anyone counting at home, that is five first-round picks to make All-Rookie teams, with this year’s two looking on track to add to the total. Cunningham and Duren look like future All-Stars. Ivey does too on certain nights. Thompson has been astounding defensively in his month. Isaiah Livers was a second-round pick and looks like a cemented rotation player when healthy. 

The Foundation

For anyone expecting Cade Cunningham to come in and be an All-NBA level floor raiser this season on a consistent basis was likely putting the fan in fanatic. He just recently passed a full season’s worth of games played and is adjusting to a rod in his leg. Yes, the flashes of brilliance are exciting. Against the Indiana Pacers on November 24, Cade had an 18-point quarter as he was finally not facing two to three blitzing defenders per possession. Getting turnovers under control is his biggest hurdle, and he knows it.

When Duren has been on the court, Detroit is a noticeably better team. During the first couple weeks of the season, the Pistons were roughly middle of the pack defensively despite starting an entire lineup of players 22 or younger. Once Duren went out with his nagging injuries, the team fell to 27th. This is not an accident. While JD still needs to refine his skills, he provides a foundation for the rest of the team to fall back on. 

Further cementing that foundation, Weaver nailed selecting Ausar Thompson with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. Thompson has already proven to be an elite defender and rebounds better than most bigs in the league. He is currently tied for sixth (with teammate Jalen Duren) in offensive rebounds. With solid playmaking instincts, the only thing that needs to come together is any ability to score. Ausar can get to the rim, but conversion remains a problem. 

Bonus Points

If you can have a three-year rebuild (because that is all you can assess Weaver on to this point) having selections like Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Livers, and Marcus Sasser being secondary really bolsters the resume. 

Stewart, to many, is the heart and soul of this team. In a perfect situation (one that involves a healthy Bogdanovic perhaps?), Stewart would be the big off the bench who provides defensive upside and the ability to space the floor. So far this season, the promise of a shot is finally being realized, converting at a 41.4 percent clip on more than three attempts per game. If this sustains, defenses will be forced to respect him out there, creating additional driving lanes for Cade, Ausar, and Jaden Ivey.

Ivey, for his part, has had the toughest task this season. Monty Williams singled him out as the player with the most bad habits that he required to be corrected. This led to him coming off the bench for the first few weeks and Twitter being in an uproar, firing up the trade machine. The vision started to pay off, though. 

Williams insisted that Ivey would have to improve his decision-making on both sides of the court to see an increased role. Nights like this (while also going off for 25 points) build confidence for both player and coach that the process is working. 

Livers has only been back for a few games but he is the ideal floor spacer for a team desperately in need of wing spacing and defense. Marcus Sasser has been a homerun for a pick in the 20s, and for more on him check out Charlie Cummings’ recent article

The Elephant in the Room

Killian Hayes has been a point of contention, and the ever-ascending star of Tyrese Haliburton has only made the comparison more glaring. Hayes is the only first-round pick for Weaver so far that feels like a miss, so naturally, he is the most discussed. 

Hayes being a starter for much of this season to date is about more than coaching stubbornness, though. Accountability has been essential and Ivey needed to prove that he could break some of his bad habits. For better or worse, those bad habits are things Hayes does not have. He averages less than a turnover per game (Ivey averages more than two per game, Cade nearly five) and he is an attentive defender. Stardom may not be in the cards, but Hayes certainly fills a role. 

Yes, Hayes feels like a miss, considering players like Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey were in the same class. But most teams would look back at the pandemic draft with myriad questions that never had a chance to be answered. Since then, Weaver has lived up to his reputation as a drafter. Building a team beyond that, however, is more of a mixed bag. 

Team Building

When Troy Weaver overturned the entire roster in his first year, fans should have known that he was going to be willing to build the team in his own vision. Aforementioned big man jokes aside, he has done just that. He has taken chances on reclamation projects. However, he has also shown the recognition that veterans are necessary to augment the young talent. 

This year more than any, the pieces fit on paper. Plenty of youth. The veterans on the team are all efficient, unselfish, and willing to do what it takes to improve the team. So what has been the issue so far this season?

Excuses/Reasons

The most frustrating reaction for someone who is trying to be logical is one of pure emotion. At the beginning of the season, it was announced that Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Livers, and Monte Morris would be out for at least three to four weeks. At the time, everyone acknowledged that things would be rough and that the team would struggle. 

One month later, Livers has played 48 minutes. Bogdanovic has yet to return (maybe this week) and Morris had a setback that could keep him out closer to Valentine’s Day. Somehow, facing the exact struggles that the fans said they expected has come as a surprise to many. Removing three solid floor spacers and that take care of the basketball has led to a team ranking 21st in 3-point percentage and 29th in turnovers. 

This, obviously is not Weaver’s fault. Nor is it on him that Alec Burks and Joe Harris have combined to miss 15 games through 16 games. Duren and Ivey have missed 11 combined. Everyone deals with injuries, but for a young team not considered by many to be deep this is not an excuse. It is a reason. 

Troy’s Starting Point

It feels silly to have to reference this four years in, but when fans compare the state of the rebuild to their contemporaries there is an important context that far too often gets forgotten: the starting point. 

Orlando was able to fast-track their rebuild by turning Nikola Vucevic into Wendell Carter Jr. and two future lottery picks. Oklahoma City and Houston turned multiple former All-NBA players into bounties of draft picks. Even Indiana was able to swap out one star for a younger, better one. Detroit did not have this luxury. The previous regime waived Reggie Jackson and traded Andre Drummond months before Weaver came to town, netting only a second-round pick in return. 

Blake Griffin was the only “star” that Troy inherited, and he too necessitated a buyout to get out of town. The only “star” trade that Weaver was able to make was one of his own engineering. He believed in Jerami Grant when most of the league thought he overpaid and turned him into drafting Jalen Duren after two mostly positive seasons. 

What Was Actually Available?

Yes, it would have been nice to use the cap space this past offseason to bolster this roster. It has been clearly stated that the core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren need help to make a push toward the play-in. Even if Bogdanovic, Burks, Livers, Morris, and the rest had been healthy for the entire season this roster was still depending fully on internal development to make that push. So who would have been available to grease the wheels to progression?

The unfortunate truth is likely, not much. Spending for the sake of spending could have led to throwing a max contract at Cam Johnson, or doing what Houston did, despite how much Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks would have stunted the reps for Ivey and Ausar Thompson. Beyond that, the free agent market last summer left plenty to be desired but not much to be had. 

When you see the likes of the Memphis Grizzlies strike out on trades despite offering multiple first-round picks, it is tough to imagine what avenues Weaver failed to explore. Trading a first-round pick remains encumbered by the trade of a protected first for Stewart in 2020. Beyond that, who is the right player to go in for? Zach LaVine? Meh. Could it have made sense to try to overpay for someone like Kyle Kuzma or get in the market for a John Collins? Perhaps, but those opportunities will present themselves again.

So what is actually wrong?

On Court Concerns

Some of this is an on-court concern that you could attempt to blame Troy for, but at the end of the day, it falls on the players. If fans believe that Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and others are impact players (which fans seem to agree on), then the blame ultimately should fall on them for some of the issues. 

It made sense for Monty Williams to make Jaden Ivey break bad habits to earn his place on the court. Accountability while learning is what real organizations do. However, that also comes with growing pains. 

Fans would ask, “Is the defense improved enough with Killian Hayes starting over Jaden Ivey” as if the single-game results were the most important thing. Bringing in a coach on a record-breaking contract for six seasons is about the long haul, not the first month on the job. Given that the young players are showing signs of improvement already while learning a new scheme is that evidence. 

There are other rotation questions that many will ask, sure they know better than the career coach. Such is life for a franchise in the midst of its third 11-plus-game losing streak in 2023. But the process is still understandable on the whole.

Is Troy blameless? No, no one in the league does a perfect job and there have been missteps. Making the move for James Wiseman was a gamble, and it did not pay off. There are still some fit questions surrounding the young core of this roster. However, many believe that you take the best available player when you had been this bad and figure the fit out as you go along.

Where We Stand Today

Personally, there is no real rush, despite the fan base’s outcry. It is preferable for Troy Weaver to not rush into a trade or signing just for minimal short-term gains. If the right move presents itself, absolutely. Maximizing Cade Cunningham, specifically, is the most important task that has faced this franchise in 15 years. 

So far, Weaver has done well. He has done very well with the draft. Signing Monty Williams was a coup at the time and so far, there is noticeable progress from the core young players despite the lack of wins. 

Rebuilds take time. Most fanbases are not built for it. Even worse for Detroit, the restoration under Weaver comes after a decade of incompetence and mediocrity. Given that, fans are ready for something different, namely, winning. Weaver is on track to that, even if that includes at least one more top lottery selection. He has had mixed luck with the lottery. Landing the top pick in a draft with a player like Cade Cunningham, however, supersedes plenty of other factors. 

Would things look different if, instead of sliding to fifth in consecutive drafts with top odds, Detroit was sitting with someone like Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero or Victor Wembanyama, or Brandon Miller? Sure. Would fans be able to hold onto a vision more fully formed had something completely out of the control of their general manager bounded differently? Indeed. 

Twitter is for overreactions and those will not be going anywhere. With any luck, neither will Troy Weaver. His vision makes sense if you can stop the Twitter fingers to think.

The post Troy Weaver: Is This Working? appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
9251
Seven Ways to Break Out https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/09/seven-ways-to-break-out/ Fri, 01 Sep 2023 15:18:22 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=7918 In the doldrums of summer it can be easy to let the narratives run away with themselves. With no new NBA basketball, imaginations run wild, and there is none more fertile ground for idle speculation than the Most Improved Player award. This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for ... Read more

The post Seven Ways to Break Out appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
In the doldrums of summer it can be easy to let the narratives run away with themselves. With no new NBA basketball, imaginations run wild, and there is none more fertile ground for idle speculation than the Most Improved Player award.

This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.


Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

via dunksandthrees.com

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.


Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.


Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.


Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.


Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

via dunksandthrees.com

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.


Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

The post Seven Ways to Break Out appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
7918
Pistons Season Review: Assessing the Rebuild https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/04/pistons-season-review-assessing-the-rebuild/ Mon, 17 Apr 2023 19:42:14 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=6110 As the season comes to an end, plenty of people look to hand out grades. However, that rarely truly conveys how the season was for a given player. Expectations are different from team to team and player to player. Context often gets lost when handing out a simple “B-”. For the Detroit Pistons, the scale ... Read more

The post Pistons Season Review: Assessing the Rebuild appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
As the season comes to an end, plenty of people look to hand out grades. However, that rarely truly conveys how the season was for a given player. Expectations are different from team to team and player to player. Context often gets lost when handing out a simple “B-”.

For the Detroit Pistons, the scale was always going to be a little different than the rest of the league. Coming into the year there was hope for a step forward for a young core to maybe push towards the back end of the play-in, something like the seasons had by Oklahoma City and Indiana. 

Then, Cade Cunningham went down and everything changed. For each player or group of players, we have defined the goal of season goals in this longer-term framework, with an eye to creating a foundation for the future. In a rebuild, everyone is working towards different ends, making measuring by statistics or wins nearly impossible. Context matters, and often makes all the difference. 

However, before getting into the players, I would be remiss if I did not start with the now-former coach. 

Dwane Casey

Goal: Continue to develop and foster a Pistons culture

Result: Exceeded

Yes, Dwane Casey just coached the team that posted the worst record in the league by five games. Over the last four seasons, Detroit has won 80 games. Be that as it may, it is tough to look back on the job Casey did negatively. 

Were there times when veterans got more minutes than some fans would like? Certainly. But the list of players who showed clear improvement under his watch is notable. Christian Wood put together his best season, resulting in an eight-figure deal (he has since failed to click with any coach).  As you’ll see as we continue, many of the players that follow on this list took marked steps forward. 

Even more surprising, the culture spearheaded by Casey and general manager Troy Weaver is impressive given the utter lack of consistency due to injury or any sustained level of success. You could tell players were frustrated by losing, but it never boiled over. There were never any reports of discontent or infighting, a rarity for a young rebuild. Everyone seemed to be on the same page and just wanted each other to get better. Casey deserves credit for being that leader.

End of Rotation: Kevin Knox, Jared Rhoden, Stanley Umude, Braxton Key, Buddy Boeheim

Goal: G-League Fill-Ins

Result: N/A

Also known as the back end of the roster, this group just did not play enough to really measure much of anything. Four of the five played under 300 minutes in total. Kevin Knox saw far too many minutes for most early in the season, averaging 14.1 per game over 42 games.

This group of young players is the type of players you have on the back end of the roster. The point is to see if something pops. When so many players missed notable time throughout the season, they should be there to soak up more minutes.

Given that only Knox was able to push into the rotation under the circumstances tells you plenty about where they stand. There was no goal here. These players mostly filled in as G-League call-ups at the end of the bench. 

Nerlens Noel

Goal: Serviceable bench big

Result: Missed

Nerlens Noel logged similar minute totals to the previous group but does not have the excuse of being a younger player. After being part of the salary dump alongside Kemba Walker that netted the Pistons the pick that would become Jalen Duren, Noel really never fit with the team. 

Noel was thought of as a decent rim protector off the bench who may end up turning into a trade asset at the deadline for a team looking to fortify their front line. Instead, Noel suited up for just 14 games in the Motor City. He only played more than 20 minutes twice and never reached double figures in points or rebounds.

After there were no bites at the deadline, Noel took a buyout and played just three games in Brooklyn. This could be the end of the road for the former lottery pick. He has played just 42 games over the last two years for three different teams. He did not seem exceptionally bought into a mentorship role, either, so the avenues for continued employment may be drying up. 

RJ Hampton/Eugene Omoruyi

Goal: Show they belongs in the league

Result: Met

Two young players brought in for the stretch run of the season, both RJ Hampton and Eugene Omoruyi were looking to prove that they deserved a place in the league. Despite their varied paths, Hampton and Omoruyi showed that young players are not necessarily defined by their first steps. 

Hampton was a former five-star recruit. He has played for three teams over the last three seasons and continues to show flashes. His 27-point outburst in the last week of the season may have caught some eyes, he reached double figures in eight of his 21 games. Will he be a star? Doubtful, but he could be a solid fourth or fifth guard to provide a scoring spark.

Omoruyi was a little more of a surprise. Two different colleges. Undrafted in the 2021 draft. Four games as a rookie on a two-way contract for the Dallas Mavericks. This season, he was on the Oklahoma City Thunder for 23 games before landing in Detroit. 

After two successful 10-day contracts, the Pistons had to keep him for the rest of the season. Eight of his 17 games saw him score 10 or more points. He just looked comfortable. It would not be surprising to see him back on the roster next year. 

Cory Joseph/Rodney McGruder/Alec Burks

Goal: Take the next step as a veteran presence

Result: Exceeded

One of the more underrated aspects of a rebuild is finding veterans who are there to help build. They are not worried about their own output at the cost of a younger player. Helping that growth keeps them in the league and could eventually lead to something more. 

Cory Joseph has been here for three seasons, often feeling like an extension of his coach on and off the floor. Joseph is a more than suitable backup guard for most situations. With so many young guards on the team, having a leader in the locker room to help them grow in that role is essential. 

Rodney McGruder is the consummate professional. There have been stories written about how so many players consider him the dream teammate, most notably from James Edwards III at The Athletic. Having someone like him to be a sounding board for young teammates is how the season was able to not spin into drama like other rebuilds. 

Alec Burks had the most on-court impact this season of this trio. Once he was able to return from injury, Burks was a walking bucket. He was the 15th-best 3-point shooter in the league, nailing 41.4 percent of his 4.7 attempts. If the Pistons had made him available, he would have found himself contributing to a real team. Given their desire to push for competency next season, keeping him around makes complete sense. 

Cade Cunningham

Goal: Take the next step to stardom

Result: Incomplete

Come back to review Cade Cunningham next season. He only played in 12 games this season before finally addressing a long-standing injury. Averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists while getting accustomed to two new high-usage teammates, however, is plenty of reason for optimism. 

Marvin Bagley III

Goal: Live up to the contract

Result: Missed

Plenty was made of the contract given to Marvin Bagley III last off-season. Troy Weaver had long been enamored with the former second-overall pick. After trading for him at the deadline last year, he was always going to be brought back. After signing a three-year $37.5 million, it was important for him to play up to that contract. 

This season was not that. Some of it is injuries. Between hand surgery and ankle issues, Bagley was limited to 41 games. However, even when he was in the lineup, consistency remained an issue. He would consistently put up numbers, like his 21-point, 18-rebound performance upon returning to the lineup, but the defense left plenty to be desired.

Given the lack of consistent rhythm, Bagley remains the key front-court prospect most likely to be moved. While a two-big system was the plan under Casey, it remains to be seen if Weaver will want that with his next coach. Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren are unlikely to be displaced by Bagley. Wiseman, acquired at this year’s deadline, stands to get a continued look as well. Bagley has been fine. But is fine worth that price point as the team looks to improve?

Saddiq Bey

Goal: Find your role

Result: Missed, at least in Detroit

Probably the most disappointing Piston of the season, Saddiq Bey came in with lofty of expectations. As a rookie, he was a flamethrower from distance and looked to be a foundational building block. Last season he tried to do more to diversify his game and struggled overall. 

This season, it was more of the same. He continued to shoot 34 percent from distance and was inconsistent on defense. His role was compromised by the addition of Bojan Bogdanovic. Isaiah Livers fit the more limited role better while being cheaper. 

Bey has found his role more coming off the bench in Atlanta and will remain a what-if for Pistons fans. He was shooting just 24.3 percent from 10 to 16 feet this season, down three percent from a season ago. Since moving to the bench in Atlanta, that is up to 42.9 percent while he is shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Being the first first-round pick under Troy Weaver to be moved is an ignominious fate for Bey. Given how hot he was after his rookie season, this is not where anyone saw this going, moved at the deadline to take a chance on James Wiseman. However, by the time it happened, it made far too much sense.  

Hamidou Diallo:

Goal: Build toward his next deal

Result: Exceeded

I do not have to go much deeper into this. Two weeks ago I dove deep into Hamidou Diallo. For me, his goal this season was to garner a stronger foothold in the rotation and become an interesting free agent on the market this summer. Coming off his most efficient season finding a role to play should do just that. 

Isaiah Livers:

Goal: Become a rotation fixture

Result: Exceeded

Unless you were an avid participant of Pistons Twitter, your expectations for Isaiah Livers were likely not that high coming into the season. After playing just 19 games as a rookie you would have to have been a homer to expect Livers to become something to build upon. 

Livers, simply put, made Saddiq Bey expendable. Seeing real minutes saw his efficiency dip some, but he still converted from beyond the arc at a 36.4 percent clip. He continues to profile as one of the better defenders on the team, able to guard two through four reasonably. 

This will be essential if the team expects to turn the corner in any way next season. Only Bogdanovic and Burks were more effective floor spacers. The term “3-and-D” is overused but for a team building from the ground up, spacing is essential. For a team in the bottom five in defensive rating, having someone on the roster ready and willing to contribute on that end is required. Livers is a core piece for this franchise going forward. 

Bojan Bogdanovic:

Goal: Show he can contribute regardless of the situation

Result: Exceeded

The best player on the team for the largest chunk of the season, Bojan Bogdanovic surprised many. Those outside of the 313 likely figured he would be swapped out before long for draft compensation. 

Instead, Detroit signed the veteran to a two-year extension because of how much he embraced the situation. They needed a veteran player who brought it every night that could fit the young core. Bogdanovic does all of that. 

Posting the highest usage rate of his career (25.9) led to other career highs, specifically points (21.6) and assists (2.6). Even better, he was still extremely efficient, posting .488/.411/.884 shooting splits. Defense remained an issue, but with a tanking team that is part of the equation anyway. As the team looks to build a defense around the roster Bogdanovic will become even less of a liability. 

This was not supposed to be the usage level that Bojan faced this season. He was supposed to be a benefactor of Cunningham, not a usage-level replacement. The fact that he was able to shift into that when his younger teammate went out was a bright spot in a dark season.

James Wiseman:

Goal: Find a role

Result: Met

There was a varied response when Detroit traded for James Wiseman at the trade deadline. Some fans were bummed to see Saddiq Bey go. Others were intrigued by the potential of a former second-overall pick getting a change of scenery and opportunity. Plenty got off their jokes about too many centers. My initial reaction was documented here

The early returns on Wiseman are mostly positive. Starting 22 of 24 games, Wiseman averaged 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds. He would be among the top 30 offensive rebounders in the league if his number in Detroit was his season-long mark. He even developed decent chemistry with rookie Jalen Duren, promising signs for a team intent on playing two bigs often. 

However, the future is still a question mark. This team will likely be looking to get minutes out of Duren, Wiseman, Bagley, and Isaiah Stewart in the paint, if not a potential number-one overall pick if the lottery smiles on Detroit. However, Wiseman showed that he plays well here and is willing to put in the work. Even if a move to the bench is more likely, there is a role for Wiseman here, which is a step forward. 

Isaiah Stewart:

Goal: Find his shot without losing other skills –

Result: Met

There have been whispers for a while that Isaiah Stewart could be a floor spacer. Given the changes to the roster, he would have to be. As a rookie, he played 100 percent of his minutes at center, followed by 98 percent in his second season. Any sort of change to playing with another big would be an adjustment. Furthermore, it would risk diminishing what he brings to the team.

Luckily, this concern was mostly assuaged. Splitting time between forward and center nearly evenly, Stewart was able to develop in what was a lost season for the franchise he played for. Part of this saw him attempt nearly double the 3-point attempts that he had taken over the combined first two seasons of his career. While his 32.7 percent conversion rate was below the league average, it is also somewhat misleading.  

He shot 36.6 percent from deep in the 2022 portion of the season, making the believers salivate. January saw him limited to nine games due to injury, and he shot just 11.5 percent. Despite making a third of his attempts in February, injuries ruined this mark. 

Stewart still showed enough to prove that this was something that could work. He and Duren make for a menacing paint presence, overflowing with muscle and verve. If he can continue to defend like a bulldog and space the floor just a bit, the ceiling is higher than some may imagine. 

Jalen Duren:

Goal: Earn real minutes, flash starter signs

Result: Exceeded

It is truly hard to remember that, at the beginning of the year, plenty were unsure if Duren would be able to force his way into the rotation. As the youngest player in the league, there were reasons to think he may start in the G-League. 

Instead, Duren looks to be a likely bet to make second-team All-Rookie. He was the best rebounder (8.9) among rookies and a top-five offensive rebounder (3.4) in the league overall. Also, he shot the eighth-best field goal percentage (64.8) in the league among players taking at least five shots per game.

Duren is offensively ahead of schedule. Mostly this is due to his game essentially being rim running, post-ups, and lobs. The defense needs work, but again, he is only 19. He missed the team’s primary playmaker for all but the first nine games of his career.

This is a prime example of why expectations matter for grading. For many players averaging 9.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in 24 minutes per game would be a shrug. When it is the league’s youngest player who came in expected to be the third or fourth big on the team, the success is clear.  

Killian Hayes:

Goal: Locate the vicinity of his shot

Result: Met (kind of)

Inconsistency will forever remain the issue with Killian Hayes. Defense and passing came into the season as known skills. For him to prove that he was an actual NBA player worth investing time and money into, let alone a team that has Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and the potential of drafting Amen Thompson or Scoot Henderson, he had to find his shot.

Hayes was top 25 (6.2) in assists and steals (1.4). He also shot just 37.8 percent from the field and 28.0 percent from beyond the arc. Frustratingly, there were stretches where promise was shown. From November to the NBA Paris game, Hayes shot 35.7 percent on 4.0 3-point attempts per game. That is more than a third of the season. It looked like he had finally put it together. 

The after-Paris stretch was truly ruinous. Over the last 32 games, Hayes shot 21.1 percent beyond the arc. Yes, he posted the first consecutive 20-point games in his career to end the season, including a career-high 28-point outing. 

Hayes is up for a contract extension this offseason. If that hot stretch had continued throughout the year, that would have been a likely possibility. Now, it would be irresponsible for the Pistons to not play this out into next year’s restricted free agency. 

Jaden Ivey:

Goal: Be one of the top five rookies

Result: Met

This goal was pretty easily defined by his draft position. Jaden Ivey was taken fifth overall in the 2022 draft, so the hope was that one year in he would still be ranked around that level. There were up and downs as expected, but overall the early returns are impressive. 

Ivey finished third among rookies in scoring (16.3), first in assists (5.2), and third amongst guards in rebounding (3.9). After the All-Star break, he improved to 19.3 points, 7.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds while drilling 36.4 percent of his 3s. 

The absence of Cade Cunningham, while brutal for most of the roster, may have been the best thing for Ivey’s development as a rookie. He was able to see significant on-ball reps early and often. He spent time sharing the court with other guards, allowing him to see the game differently. With Cunningham coming back, he will be sharing the court with a different player than he saw after the first 12 games. 

As someone who was unsure of the fit coming in, consider this my mea culpa. Ivey proved he can play on- or off-ball. Cunningham showed that last season. The duo will be one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league in short order. Kudos to the Pistons for being able to boast that. 

The post Pistons Season Review: Assessing the Rebuild appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
6110
Why Adding James Wiseman Was the Right Move https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/02/why-adding-james-wiseman-was-the-right-move/ Wed, 15 Feb 2023 23:31:22 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=4866 James Wiseman was a smart gamble for the Detroit Pistons.  It needed to be said because media and fans alike have done plenty of joking and stressing about the move made at the deadline. And yes, I know the team drafted a center in the lottery last season. I also know they traded for a ... Read more

The post Why Adding James Wiseman Was the Right Move appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
James Wiseman was a smart gamble for the Detroit Pistons. 

It needed to be said because media and fans alike have done plenty of joking and stressing about the move made at the deadline. And yes, I know the team drafted a center in the lottery last season. I also know they traded for a former lottery mistake a deadline ago who stands nearly seven feet tall. I even remember that Isaiah Stewart exists. But still, James Wiseman gets a thumbs up.

Given all of those facts that people seem to think Troy Weaver forgot when he swapped Saddiq Bey for the 2020 second-overall pick, the move for James Wiseman still makes sense. There is something to be found here and Weaver seems determined to be the one to find it. Even better, it fits their consistent goal. Even if people do not like the idea of playing two bigger bodies at the same time, Detroit does want this. For a team that did not have a stated goal for the better part of the last 15 years, seeing them build to that goal is relieving.

A rebuild gets easier when there is a plan in place. The plan was going to take a few drafts and trade cycles for Troy Weaver to get that in place in full. After tearing down the roster to the studs, keeping size with a variety of skill sets has been the archetype.

The Vision

For better or worse, Detroit has been adamant since Troy Weaver came to town that they wanted to employ a diverse set of big men. It started in 2020 when they selected Isaiah Stewart in the first round. They followed that up with free agent signings of Jahlil Okafor and Mason Plumlee. Then in 2021, the team brought in Luka Garza, Marvin Bagley, and Kelly Olynyk. Finally, 2022 saw the drafting of Jalen Duren and the trade for Nerlens Noel. 

In case you did not notice, Weaver believes that it is possible to play multiple big men. Luka Garza and Kelly Olynyk were often tasked with being floor spacers while contributing very little on the defensive end. Marvin Bagley has found ways to be a play finisher, dipping into his bag, while at this point Duren has been mostly used as a rim runner. Nerlens Noel, who has played sparingly, is there for his defensive role as either a drop big or hedging and recovering. Wiseman would likely fit more into the drop role while Duren fits more into the latter. Stewart, meanwhile is a different animal overall: Isaiah has improved as a passer (his assists per game have doubled in February) while continuing to stretch the floor but can also bang in the paint. On defense he just bodies people, embodying the Bouncer role.

So far this season, per Cleaning The Glass, 18 different lineups have played for at least 50 possessions in the Motor City. The second most common configuration combined Stewart and Duren with Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, and Jaden Ivey. Bagley replaces Duren for the third most common lineup. 

Overall four of their top 12 lineups played two of their three bigs. This would have likely been more had Bagley not been limited to 25 games due to injury. Casey and Weaver seem aligned in wanting skilled size to anchor them. Stewart has developed nicely, teasing a 3-point shot. Duren is a freak of a 19-year-old who never looks like the youngest player in the league. Part of this is because they are playing with lottery guards who are looking to get them into positions to succeed. Cade Cunningham coming back next year will boost that even more. 

Given this being the goal, it makes sense for Detroit to take a low-cost, high-reward swing on a talented big man. This would allow them to field a four-player platoon and play the same style even if they are in reserve-only lineups. Simplicity will be key in teaching all of these young players to play at an NBA level and this type of continuity fits that. 

But why Wiseman?

We are not far removed from a time when Troy Weaver was likely conniving behind the scenes to trade up to select the top target in his first draft where he was at the helm. His per-36-minute numbers jump off the sheet: 19.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.3 assists. Sure he has only exceeded 30 minutes in a game twice in his short career, but that is part of this too. 

If Wiseman starts the rest of the season and gets normal starter minutes (the current rumor), he would log almost three-quarters of his entire time spent in the Warriors lineup. Raw is the understatement of the year. Detroit has grown accustomed to taking chances of change-of-scenery candidates since the commitment to losing and rebuilding was clear. Wiseman is the biggest swing, but he could be exactly what they needed. 

Given the chance to be a better Marvin Bagley III is both a doable goal and a reasonable request. Wiseman could be the lob threat that Killian Hayes has dreamed about since being drafted. More than half of Wiseman’s shots this season have come within five feet of the basket. More than 80 percent of his baskets have been assisted. 

His growth gives him a chance to pair with Hayes and Jaden Ivey this year, as well as Cunningham (and maybe Scoot Henderson?) next year. There is no pressure here. Detroit is going to lose most of the rest of its games.  Wiseman does not have to worry about the hook coming for him here. 

The Fit

For anyone worried about what this means for Jalen Duren, they are missing the point. Duren and Stewart have paired well together and will likely be played together plenty. Wiseman, if he starts, will get to pair with Stewart and/or Bogdanovic. This will give him space to work with. From here, Detroit should essentially hitch Wiseman’s minutes to Bojan. If the pair comes out, in comes Duren and either Hamidou Diallo, Alec Burks, or Isaiah Livers. 

This does not necessarily have to cut into Duren’s minutes. While it is unlikely Wiseman and Duren share the floor much (unless Wiseman starts drifting out to shoot more often), there is plenty of minutes opened up by the departure of Saddiq Bey. Bey slotted in as a power forward in two of the top seven most-used lineups this season. This can easily be turned into pairings with either Bagley or Stewart alongside Duren or Wiseman. Focusing on developing both of these young bigs should not be a problem.

Giving Wiseman ample time with Hayes and Bogdanovic will give him space to work with and smart passers to enable him. When he is on the floor with Stewart, he will have help on both sides of the floor down low. Hayes will likely be the best point-of-attack defender he has played with yet. 

That being said, the defense will be bad. The losses will pile up. That too is okay. Detroit is not bringing James Wiseman in expecting him to turn them into a contender tomorrow. He is perfect to grow with them, not for them. That is a distinction that he has never been able to appreciate.

Am I being too optimistic? Most Pistons fans would be screaming yes. They are tired of seeing centers and Ls. However, I appreciate that at long last we have a leadership group committed to a vision and taking chances. James Wiseman is a chance worth taking that fits the vision.

The post Why Adding James Wiseman Was the Right Move appeared first on Swish Theory.

]]>
4866