The Wemby Tier

1. Victor Wembanyama, Big, Metropolitans 92

As much as I loved them as prospects, this is why you can’t call guys like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Chet Holmgren generational. Because if you do, what in God’s name do you call Victor Wembanyama? Once in a lifetime? Once in an epoch? I don’t even know what to say about Wemby that hasn’t already been said a hundred times. We have never seen someone as tall as Wemby (7’5) move as fluidly as he does while displaying touch from every area of the floor. Oh and by the way, he also anchored the number two defense in France and led his team to their first ever finals appearance as a 19 year old. 

Let’s start with Wemby’s defense. No one is safe against Wemby in the paint. He uses his 8’0 wingspan to block shots at an absurd rate (9.7 BLK% this year). Rim protection has always been Wemby’s best skill, as he led the Euroleague in blocks as an 18 year old with ASVEL last year. Wemby’s unique physical makeup allows him to block and alter shots that no one has ever been able to. That play where he was backpedaling in transition, flipped his hips, and blocked an alley-oop is just one of many examples of Wemby using his otherworldly tools functionally on defense. He covers a lot of ground in the halfcourt too. He often finds himself in positions that would leave most bigs out of the play, only to swoop in and bother the shot. He does stuff like this while only averaging 2.1 fouls per game as well! The discipline Wemby shows to not get sloppy when protecting the rim is remarkable. Wemby is going to be a killer drop defender in the NBA, but he also shows proficiency at the level of ball screens. He slides with perimeter players and gives them problems with his length. Wemby’s hands are also surprisingly quick. He occasionally strips ball handlers and can initiate the ensuing transition opportunities. Given his tools, smarts, and pedigree on defense, I feel comfortable projecting Wemby to be contending for DPOY awards throughout his career.

Then there is the offense. Turn on any highlight tape or game of Wemby’s, and you will see jaw-dropping shot-creation and dribble combinations that you can never quite believe a 7’5 player is uncorking. His move from ASVEL to Metropolitans 92 allowed him more freedom to explore his shotmaking, which likely dragged down his percentages, but helped his long term development. As I am writing, he has only shot 27.6 from three this season, which is the one hair in the soup for Wemby’s statistical profile. But, I am not worried about that. Given the degree of difficulty on some of these shots and his natural touch (81.3 FT%), it’s pretty safe to say that Wemby is going to shoot. The Spurs should trust him as both a catch and shoot threat and an isolation scorer from day one. His work in the midrange is deadly, especially his turnaround jumper, which no one can feasibly block. Wemby also hits stepback threes with regularity, and he might be the player who officially ushers the three point floater into the game of basketball. Once again, this man is 7’5!  

Wemby’s passing stands out too. He needs to clean up his turnovers by acting on his decisions quicker and not telegraphing his passes. But, he can pass off a live dribble and hit cutters and spot up shooters accurately. Wemby is also great at hitting the dunker’s spot in short roll situations. I wouldn’t describe him as a manipulative passer, but he won’t need manipulation to be an effective playmaker. He finds the open man following double teams with ease, and he will only improve his more advanced reads with time. Wemby posted 99 assists and 121 turnovers this season (0.82 AST:TO), an encouraging ratio for a big man prospect in Europe. For reference, Marc Gasol had a 0.9 AST:TO ratio in his pre-draft year, and he was the best big man passer in the league until a certain Serbian showed up. Wemby should only improve as a playmaker over time. 

Are there flaws in Wemby’s game? Sure. He can’t quite punish height mismatches in the post by backing them down, and instead has to rely on shooting over them every single time. Again, his 3P% has to increase, which his FT% and the eye test already suggest will happen. It feels weird to even discuss this stuff because these flaws won’t matter in the grand scheme of things. They certainly will not prevent him from being the obvious choice at number one. The other discussion surrounding Wemby is what his frame will mean for his NBA longevity. There’s no ignoring the truth: players above a certain height have had trouble staying healthy in years past. Former number one picks Ralph Sampson (7’4) and Yao Ming (7’6) were the consensus choices at the time, but knee, back, and foot injuries prevented them from having long careers. But, Wemby and his camp seem to have taken these cautionary tales into account and have worked diligently on his body. At this point, Wemby’s long and detailed warm-up routine is well documented. If he suffers a career setback due to injury, it won’t be because he neglected to address potential medical issues. 

Not only is Wemby the obvious choice at number one, he is by far the best prospect I have evaluated in my time as an armchair scout. He is the prize of the last ten drafts, and is likely to be the prize of the next ten drafts. With his combination of size, fluidity, scoring, playmaking, and elite defensive potential, there’s no telling how good Wemby can become. The Spurs have once again lucked into the big man prospect of the decade, and he will vault them into contention within the next few years. 

Tier 1

2. Scoot Henderson, Guard, G League Ignite

He doesn’t hold a candle to Wemby, but Scoot Henderson is a great prospect in his own right and by far the next best swing for stardom in this class. For starters, Scoot’s per 100 line in the G League is ridiculous, as he put up 27.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.9 steals, and 5.1 turnovers. Scoot is a force when his motor is fully revved up. Even though he stands at only 6’2, Scoot is built like a semi truck. He boasts a 6’9 wingspan in addition to his chiseled 200 pound frame, which ought to quell any concerns about his size at the next level (yes, some people are actually concerned about this for some reason). He uses his powerful frame to brush off contact and finish with ease. Scoot also has some craft around the rim, utilizing reverses as well as changing up his body angles and timing with his footwork. When he has a head of steam, Scoot threatens to posterize rim protectors

Scoot’s shot, while a work in progress, projects to be an asset at the next level. He shot 32.4% from three in his regular season and showcase games, in addition to an even 75 percent from the line. Scoot is not comfortable shooting off the dribble from three yet. Some people are skeptical that he will get there. But, in his higher end outcomes, I think a pull up three is very attainable. Teams will go under on ball screens at the start of Scoot’s career until he can reliably punish teams for doing so. He will have more time to get his pull up three off in these situations, and he can concentrate on speeding up the decision to shoot as he improves his efficiency there. 

Where Scoot thrives is in the midrange. I love how polished Scoot is setting up these shots. He takes what the defense gives him in drop coverage, and his pull up is an effective counter on drives to the basket. He settles for too many jumpers from there rather than attacking the rim, but the concern over this phenomenon is overblown with Scoot. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic brought forth the idea that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks and contact seeking in order to avoid injury. I think there’s some credence to this idea. The G-League Ignite program is all about securing a high draft pick for these prospects, not necessarily competing at the highest level. So, you can hardly blame Scoot for taking his foot off the gas when he solidified his status as a lock for the top three. 

Because of this, improvements to Scoot’s scoring game inside the arc are imminent. I suspect he will find himself at the rim and the free throw line much more starting from early in his career. Shot selection issues almost never derail prospects with the physical tools of Scoot’s caliber. When their coaches emphasize getting to the efficient spots they can relentlessly attack, these players usually adjust. Look at how quickly Anthony Edwards dialed up his rim pressure in the NBA; I think Scoot will undergo a similar development process. 

Scoot also makes virtually every pass in the book. An AST:TO ratio of 2 and 10.2 AST per 100 demonstrate how advanced of a passer Scoot is for his age. He collapses defenses and sprays the ball to shooters off a live dribble. He is creative with his interior passes, as he expertly manipulates bigs in the paint on dump offs and lobs. Weakside skip passes have become necessary for NBA primaries, and Scoot already shows aptitude in that department. With his physical tools and quick decision making, he’s going to be a transition nightmare as well. 

Defensively, Scoot has the tools to be good, but there’s a ton he needs to clean up. When he’s on, Scoot navigates screens well on the ball, and he gets into ball handlers and disrupts them. But, his tape contained a ton of preventable blowbys where he was barely in a stance. This is hardly atypical for a young primary initiator, but you’d hope to see a little more from Scoot given his physical tools. Off the ball, Scoot got caught ball watching too much, and his steal rate of 1.9 per 100 doesn’t sway me in a positive direction here. His closeouts could use a great deal of improvement as well. I have no doubt that Scoot’s defense will improve as his career goes on, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Scoot’s athleticism, projectable jump shot, advanced passing, and reported intangibles make him an excellent primary initiator bet. Primary initiators are the players we think of as stars in the NBA. This makes Scoot the clear-cut number two prospect in this draft. Charlotte, don’t mess this up. 

Tier 2

In the past, my Tier 2 has been reserved for prospects who are confident All-Star bets with a chance to deservedly command a max contract down the line. Obviously, Wemby and Scoot both slotted in above this tier. I believe Scoot can make All-NBA teams down the line. Wemby, well, nothing is off the table for him. After these two prospects, the talent drops off significantly in my eyes. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of great prospects with star upside in this class. But, they are much less obvious from here on out. Thus, I don’t feel confident enough in anyone else to put them in Tier 2 or above. Let’s move on. 

Tier 3

3. Cam Whitmore, Wing, Villanova

I still can’t really believe I am doing this, but here it is. Cam Whitmore at three – the same Cam Whitmore who seemingly averaged one pass per game at Villanova. If you read my last article, first of all, thank you. Second of all, you know that Cam Whitmore has what I call a compounding skills profile. “Compounding skills” refers to a development pathway many great players have undergone: a raw and fluid athlete who builds on flashes of perimeter skill until they are a complete offensive player. Make no mistake, Whitmore has as big a learning curve as any compounding skills prospect I have seen. His 6.4 AST% is historically low, and the efficiency of his pull up game leaves a lot to be desired. And yet, there have been too many compounding skills success stories for me to put Whitmore any lower than this. With compounding skills prospects, we are shooting for a fairly complete offensive player down the line. But, as I said, Whitmore’s passing and off the dribble game are clearly not where they need to be. So, what am I betting on with Whitmore? 

First off, he has a lot of time on his side with a July 2004 birthday. He’s a year and a half younger than the Thompson twins and close to two full years younger than Brandon Miller, three players who are often mocked higher than Whitmore. That age difference has gone underdiscussed throughout this draft cycle. Secondly, Whitmore is a mutant of an athlete. His preference for two-foot leaping could present some initial bumps in the road around the rim. But, it’s hard to get hung up on that when Whitmore has the best speed/power combination I’ve seen since Anthony Edwards. At 6’6, 230, Whitmore is a downhill force. His flashes as a driver are special. He can get downhill and completely displace defenders. Even against good on-ball defenders, he can easily get his shoulder past them and finish through contact. Whitmore has legitimate touch around the rim and can utilize a lot of finishing angles when his initial plan is cut off. 

Additionally, Whitmore has enough perimeter skill to suggest that he can become a great three-level scorer down the line. I think his handle is underrated. He keeps the ball under control on drives, and he already has some go-to moves to create shots for himself, including a polished stepback. The shot itself looks good to me. He shot 34.3 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, which for his age is actually pretty encouraging. Many of these shots came from comfortably outside NBA range as well. He only shot 70.3 percent from the line, but I trust Whitmore’s mechanics and the deep range he already possesses will make him a trustworthy shooter at the next level. 

Whitmore’s shot selection is a Moreyball dream. He exclusively operates at the rim and from three, which probably inflated his 55.1 eFG% (good number for an 18 year old college wing). This ought to help him as a play finisher in his first couple years in the NBA, but if he is going to become an on-ball scorer, he’ll likely need to develop a midrange game. His attempts at pull ups or floaters inside the arc were rare, and when they occurred it didn’t look pretty. Whitmore has some serious work to do here, but he has the time to get it done. Passing is the other glaring weakness in Whitmore’s game. I’ve already mentioned his woeful 6.4 AST%, and his slow processing prevents him from creating more advantages for himself and others. Whitmore would benefit tremendously from eliminating that extra beat that he takes every time he gets the ball before deciding what to do. I’ve liked some of the passing flashes I’ve seen from him, he executed some nice live dribble dump offs and the occasional skip pass. But, they were flashes in every sense of the word. If you blinked, you might have missed them. 

Defensively, Whitmore has serious flashes to build on going forward. He can be a terror on the ball, using his strength and lateral quickness to get into ball handlers and guard multiple positions. While his team defense is messy right now, Whitmore still nabbed 3.2 steals per 100 and showed some amazing weak side rim protection. Historically, scouts have gotten burned when talking about prospects like Whitmore defensively. They get hung up on the effort level when the tools are so clearly there. Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Edwards are two examples of compounding skills players who were deservedly flamed for their defensive effort (in Wiggins’ case, comfortably into his NBA career). But, they turned into excellent defensive stoppers. You want to bet on the talent and tools combo every single time, and Whitmore has both in spades defensively. 

I’ll close with a principle that I solidified back in 2020 because of Anthony Edwards: with young and powerful athletes, focus on the flashes. If these prospects can do something once, chances are they can do it again until they make it a habit. Before you know it, you have an All-Star on your team. Developing Whitmore is going to require patience. But, if he follows the compounding skills trajectory I expect him to, he can turn into the two-way wing shot creator that NBA teams crave.

4. Jarace Walker, Forward, Houston

Those who follow my work will know that I have talked about Jarace Walker ad nauseam. My false ceiling alarm bells went off early in the college season, and I haven’t shifted my position since. Jarace was a key contributor on both ends to a Houston team that finished number one in pre-tournament KenPom rankings. He had an eye-popping statline of 25.2 points, 15.2 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.9 blocks per 100 possessions. That high level impact on the box score was good for an 8.8 BPM as well. 

We know what Jarace can do as a connector, and I expect him to contribute in a similar manner from the jump in the NBA. It’s rare to find a 6’7, 240 pound forward who processes the game as quickly as Jarace does. Look no further than his passing, where he seems to always find holes in the defense and exploit them. The ball never sticks with Jarace. He has a knack for keeping the ball moving and optimizing the offensive possession for his team. He only averaged 3.3 turnovers per 100 relative to his four assists, only reaffirming Jarace’s top tier court mapping and lightning quick decision making. His short roll passing is outstanding, and if you need someone to just stand at the nail and make decisions, Jarace is that guy. 

Additionally, Jarace is an amazing defender. I already mentioned his stock numbers, which were so good because of his unbelievable team defense. He flies out of nowhere to block shots regularly, and he can read ball handlers and play the passing lanes brilliantly. As a help side rim protecting four, Jarace has the potential to make a huge impact. Even though he is just 6’7, Jarace also showed some coverage versatility as the roll man defender in ball screens. Houston trusted him to hedge ball screens, drop, play at the level, pretty much everything. I want to reiterate that Houston was KenPom’s number one team and number one defense before the tournament. The fact that Jarace had this large of a role in both those rankings as a freshman has been another underdiscussed talking point this draft cycle. On the ball, Jarace’s hips can be a bit slow, so he is susceptible to quick changes of direction. But, he’s light on his feet, and he uses his fast hands to jar the ball loose and earn transition opportunities. He might not be an elite wing stopper, but Jarace has enough to build on for his on-ball defense. 

The degree to which Jarace’s scoring game develops will dictate his upside. At 25.1 points per 100, he was far from a non-scorer in college. But, he was reluctant to attack the rim, and he wasn’t super efficient away from the rim either. There are certainly justifiable concerns with how Jarace is going to score in the NBA. However, Jarace’s placement on my board should indicate that I believe he’s going to find a way to score. 

For starters, I think Jarace is going to shoot. Last season, he shot 34.7 percent from three and 66.3 percent from the line, hardly a resounding point in his favor. But, Jarace’s mechanical improvements from his senior year of high school to college were remarkable. He also shows good touch in the short midrange areas, especially with that floater that he loves. I always cite unassisted two point jumpers as a strong indicator for shooting when traditional indicators fail, and Jarace hit 30 of them. I love the direction Jarace’s shot is headed, and his elite processing indicates that he has the neuroplasticity required for further development. I can’t help but project Jarace as a reliable catch and shoot threat at the very least. I also don’t think self-creation is out of the question in Jarace’s high end outcomes. We’ve seen guys who specialize in the close midrange area at the college level slowly develop their isolation scoring. What’s awesome is that Houston gave Jarace iso opportunities throughout the season, and he delivered in some key moments. As a UVA fan, I remember him cooking us with fadeaways down the stretch all too well. 

It’s difficult to see how Jarace fails in the NBA. Teams always look for players in Jarace’s mold: smart and versatile wings who can impact the game in many different ways. The floor is incredibly high here, and Jarace will be afforded opportunities to experiment and add to his game as a result. I’d be shocked if Jarace does not find himself playing in high stakes games for at least a decade in the NBA. 

5. Taylor Hendricks, Forward, UCF

Taylor Hendricks: false ceiling prospect number two in this draft. Hendricks had a truly meteoric rise this year. He went from number 46 in the RSCI rankings to a consensus lottery pick and the fifth player on my board. I understand if you are skeptical of ranking Hendricks this high. But, let me ask you something: how many prospects in recent memory have met Hendricks’ thresholds of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and incredible defense? It’s not that many, right? There’s Jabari Smith last year, and the next one I can think of is Jaren Jackson. I wasn’t scouting prospects in 2018, but I know that Jaren was clearly a better prospect than both Jabari Smith and Taylor Hendricks. These are not direct comparisons. The point is that using Hendricks as a threshold for the categories above sets the bar quite high.. 

The first thing that stands out about Hendricks is his size and shooting combo. At 6’9, 215 pounds, Hendricks shot 39.4 percent from three on eight attempts per 100 and 78.2 percent from the line. He shoots a comfortable ball with a high release point that is tough to contest. Similarly to Jarace Walker, Hendricks has greatly improved his jump shot since high school. He only shot 31.2% from three in his last two years of high school and EYBL play (hat tip to Maxwell Baumbach, @BaumBoards on Twitter for that stat). To go from that to nearly 40 percent is quite impressive, and the free throw percentage suggests that it is sustainable. The high release point and touch could lend themselves to improvements off the dribble as well. This process played out with guys like Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard, and Mikal Bridges. 

Hendricks’ athleticism also stands out, and he already uses it functionally as an off ball player on offense. He excels as a cutter and playing out of the dunker’s spot, as demonstrated by his 36 dunks on the year. While still a work in progress, Hendricks’ flashes of attacking closeouts have looked good too. I trust that to continue being a weapon for him as NBA defenders begin to respect his shot. The drawbacks with Hendricks offensively are his handle and playmaking ability. I love the functional athleticism, but his loose handle sometimes prevents him from fully taking advantage of his gifts. I think Hendricks’ current handle woes lead to some of his difficulties with unassisted looks at the rim, which has been a common criticism of Hendricks. Guys with Hendricks’ athleticism often experience improvements to their handle, and improvement as a dribbler will help Hendricks attack the rim off the dribble efficiently.  

Hendricks also isn’t much of a passer at this stage, and he unfortunately does not have the first step of someone like Cam Whitmore which lends itself to passing improvement. He is limited to fairly basic reactive reads, only processing what’s happening in his direct field of vision. Hendricks averaged 2.4 assists per 100 and 2.5 turnovers. I like that his AST:TO ratio is around one, but that’s a small amount of assists relative to his usage. I suspect that Hendricks’ passing will be another beneficiary of an improved handle, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Where Hendricks really shines is on defense. I honestly think he is on a similar level to Jarace Walker on that end. He used his size, verticality, and timing to be a force of a helpside rim protector. Hendricks averaged 3.0 blocks per 100 and only 3.5 fouls. He already has an advanced verticality technique, and he uses his frame and leaping ability to stifle drivers at the rim. Hendricks can cover an insane amount of ground on these rotations too. This allows him to close out to shooters from further away than most players as well. Additionally, Hendricks will guard anyone you need him to on the perimeter. He has fluid hips, slides his feet, and likes to get close to ball handlers and bother them with his length. Unlike Jarace, I’m not sure I trust Hendricks to be the roll man defender in ball screens. His role is going to be a wing stopper and help defender, and I think he will excel. 

Closing the loop here, I want to share a Barttorvik query I stumbled upon. Do you want to know the only two freshmen in that database to have an eFG% > 55, BLK% > 5, 3PA/100 > 7, and over 30 dunks? Taylor Hendricks and Jaren Jackson Jr. That is it. I mentioned the traits of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and defense. I also mentioned that Hendricks sets an incredibly high bar for those attributes. The eye test informed that take, but a statistical search using numbers close to Hendricks’ marks corroborated it. Hendricks will thrive in a 3&D role immediately, and if you think that is where a 19 year old kid will stop his development, you are sorely mistaken. If Hendricks is drafted in the 7-14 range, he has a chance to be a steal in this draft.  

6. Brandon Miller, Wing, Alabama

As a 6’9 freshman, Brandon Miller was arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball this past year. He was a consensus All-American and led Alabama to the overall number one seed in the NCAA tournament. His 12.0 BPM led all freshmen in the country. Oh, and he did this all with a skillset that directly translates to the NBA, having shot 38.4 percent from three on 12.6 attempts per 100. So, what’s he doing here and not comfortably ranked third? 

First, there’s the issue of his age. I alluded to it earlier, but Miller is OLD for a freshman. A November 2002 birthday will make him 20.6 years old on draft night. He’s only three months younger than TCU junior guard Mike Miles! Taylor Hendricks is a year younger to the day than Brandon Miller; Jarace Walker is ten months younger; Cam Whitmore is almost two years younger. I could keep going. That age difference really matters when considering the development curves of these prospects. 

Second, while the production can’t be denied, I’m not sure I trust Miller to be an effective on-ball star in the NBA. He doesn’t have the functional strength or flexibility that the game’s best wing creators have. He isn’t all that bursty, and he struggles as soon as he faces a lot of contact in the lane. According to Synergy, Miller shot 39.3 percent at the rim in the half court, which is…not ideal. He lacks craft around the rim and the aforementioned athletic limitations hinder him in that area too. Miller also only shot 33.3% from the midrange, albeit on mostly unassisted looks. Miller found a way to produce and impact winning at a high level despite his limitations inside the arc, in large part due to the fact that he was a flamethrower from three. I already mentioned the volume and efficiency, and it’s worth noting that Miller can splash in shots from deep off the catch, off movement, or off the dribble. The ball comes out flat on his shot, but you can’t argue with the results. An 85.9 FT% on 170 total attempts this season only provides further evidence for Miller’s outside shooting aptitude.

Miller also dramatically improved as a dribbler and passer throughout the season. His handle can be a bit high and loose, but Alabama trusted him to initiate offense more as the season went on. He operated in ball screens and could make good passes with either hand. I also really liked Miller as a fast break initiator, where he pushes the pace and finds open teammates quickly. In order for Miller to run pick and roll in the NBA, he needs to improve the velocity and accuracy of his passes. Some of Miller’s passes were wild, especially early on, but I like that he tightened up his passes as the season went on. 

Defensively, Miller projects as solid but not spectacular. I can’t think of one standout skill for Miller on this end. He didn’t generate a lot of stocks or completely hound guys on the ball. But, his rotations were sound, he held up just fine on the ball, and he rarely made any egregious mistakes. Miller didn’t wow me like Walker and Hendricks did, but I trust him to be a neutral to slightly positive defender at the next level. 

Miller is a weirdly tough evaluation. Normally, I’d see a freshman who produced at the level Miller did and put him in Tier 1 or Tier 2 without thinking twice. That seems to be what the NBA has done. However, when you dig deeper, it’s hard to project Miller as a quality star player. Does he have the functional strength, bend, balance, or craft to create inside the arc in the NBA? Is his handle good enough to earn on-ball reps in the NBA? If not, what exactly is he at the next level? The answer there is a ridiculous wing shooter with some tertiary playmaking capabilities and competent defense. That’s a great player to have, but we’re not talking about the next Paul George here. There’s no question that Miller is a great basketball player, and I am valuing his high floor here with the list of sure things dwindling quickly. But, I can’t get as excited about his upside as the NBA seems to be. 

7. Cason Wallace, Guard, Kentucky

Cason Wallace seems to have fallen on mainstream boards, but I am not reacting to that. People are getting hung up on his size and projected role, a 3&D guard. Pencling him into this role ignores an important question: are we sure this guy is only a 3&D guard? At only 6’3, Wallace will mostly be the smallest guy on the floor in effective lineups. He will absolutely be able to play that role, A closer look indicated that Wallace might be able to bear a greater offensive load down the line. 

For starters, Wallace finished well at the rim. He could stand to get there more often, but he shot a whopping 71.2% at the rim, with just 9.2% of those looks being assisted, according to Barttorvik. Wallace also finished with 11 dunks on the season, an indicator that Wallace is underrated as an athlete. Wallace could be passive at times, and he was playing hurt for a portion of the season. None of that helped him shine as an athlete, but I love his functional strength and deceleration on the offensive end. Outside Kentucky’s system, Wallace will have more space to operate on drives and I trust that the rim volume will increase without affecting his efficiency. 

Wallace also has enough off the dribble prowess to build on for potential primary ball handler reps. According to HoopMath, he made 40 unassisted two-point jumpers, which bodes well for Wallace’s outside shooting. Wallace’s tough shotmaking in the midrange makes me more optimistic about his shot than a fairly pedestrian 34.6 3P% and 75.7% FT% otherwise would. Another great indicator for future primaries is an AST%:USG% ratio > 1. It’s rare for players to achieve this, and Wallace hit that ratio comfortably with a 24.3 AST% to a 19.9 USG%. For someone who’s almost exclusively labeled a combo guard, Wallace checks a lot of boxes for a pure point guard prospect. 

Additionally, Wallace’s defense is incredible. His 6’9 wingspan allows him to play bigger than his size both on and off the ball. Off the ball, Wallace’s screen navigation, anticipation, and rotations are top notch. His 3.7 steals per 100 (historically great rate for a freshman guard) reflect that aptitude. On the ball, Wallace terrorizes ball handlers with his lateral quickness, fast hands, and functional strength. It’s nearly impossible for ball handlers to overpower Wallace, and he is the most disruptive point-of-attack defender in this class as well. That’s a pretty good combination!

Honestly, there aren’t many bones to pick with Wallace. I wish he could separate from defenders more and generate easier looks. I wish he was a little more assertive and willing to command the offense more. Also, while Wallace meets many basic thresholds for skills like shooting off the dribble and attacking the rim, he is far from elite in those areas. It’s possible that the small sample size of one season inflated his numbers there and we don’t have a clear picture. 

See? I’m already grasping at straws while trying to nitpick. Wallace can capably dribble, pass, make great decisions, shoot from the midrange and three, and defend at an elite level. A Marcus Smart 3&D+ outcome is very attainable for him. Plus, who knows? Maybe Wallace is next in a long line of Kentucky guards whose potential was hidden under Coach Calipari. 

8. Leonard Miller, Forward, G-League Ignite

The departure from consensus continues! Leonard Miller is easily the most underrated player in the 2023 class. I made the elevator pitch for Miller in my last article, so I want to quote myself here: 

As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. […] These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

A couple things to add here. First, addressing the concern of Miller’s shot. There’s no question the mechanics are wonky. His lower body is all over the place, and his upper body often has to contort itself to stay in alignment. This results in an impractical shooting motion, and it had a lot to do with his 30.4 percent clip from three in the Regular Season and Showcase games. The good news is Leonard has real touch. He shot 79.2 percent from the line and showed amazing touch finishing at the rim. When projecting shooting, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to guys with touch, and Miller has it. The fact that he shot as well as he did with those mechanics might actually be a point in his favor.  

Some people also seem concerned with what role Miller will have in the NBA. My answer to that right now: I have no idea. My best guess is he starts out as an energy guy who finishes at the rim, makes good decisions, and plays defense. As his career progresses, he’ll earn more responsibilities than that, and the shot will ultimately dictate how much room Miller has to grow. I’m not a coach, and I’ll own up to the fact that I’m not sure what the specific plan should be for Leonard Miller early on. However, I am confident that there is a role for a 6’10 functionally athletic, coordinated, and smart two-way player with budding perimeter skills. I trust an NBA coach to find that role. 

You don’t see a prospect with Leonard Miller’s development curve every draft cycle. He was a guard who had a late growth spurt. He went from playing against unremarkable Canadian high school competition to thriving against grown men in the G-League within a year. That’s incredible. It also helps that everyone who’s in the know says that Miller is an unbelievable human being who’s hungry to learn and get better. You want Leonard Miller on your basketball team. Draft him with confidence. 

9. Gradey Dick, Wing, Kansas

The easy sales pitch for Gradey Dick is he’s 6’8 and has been a 40 percent three point shooter since he got his learner’s permit. His pristine mechanics, touch, high release point, and shot versatility make him one of the best shooting prospects I’ve evaluated. As far as his basic shooting numbers go, 40.3 3P% on 10.0 attempts per 100 and 85.4 percent at the line in his lone season at Kansas. 

Everyone knows about the shooting, but Gradey’s unheralded ancillary skills on offense really stand out. Chief among them is his cutting. Gradey weaponizes his shooting gravity to lure defenders close and decisively cut behind them. Gradey generates lots of easy rim attempts in this way, and he uses clever body control and angles to finish. Don’t sleep on Gradey’s vertical pop following a backdoor cut either. When he builds up a head of steam, he’s a threat to finish emphatically above the rim off a lob pass. His 15 dunks on the season back that up. 

Additionally, Gradey’s passing is underrated. He won’t be a primary initiator, but Gradey can pick teams apart coming off curls or attacking closeouts. He makes quick reads and rarely misses an extra pass. Gradey will occasionally fit the ball through tight windows in transition, and he made a couple nice weakside skips when nothing else was on. With regards to those skip passes, Gradey usually executed them after surveying the court for a few seconds. He rarely uncorked those off of pure instinct. That doesn’t matter too much though. Gradey is fantastic at simple passes and the movement off of them required for functioning in an NBA offense. For those wondering about his AST:TO ratio, it was comfortably above one at 1.25. 

Defensively, some scouts have completely written Gradey off. Personally, I am a bit more optimistic. I share the concerns about Gradey’s athleticism with everyone else. He needs to get much stronger in order to absorb contact, and quicker players have their way with Gradey when they make him move laterally. However, I think Gradey has a chance to make up for his physical limitations with smarts and effort. His 0.8 BLK% doesn’t jump off the page, but I thought Gradey flashed really good verticality technique and use of his length around the rim. His rotations tend to be good too, even if the athleticism takes away some of their efficacy. Gradey has quick hands too, which makes him effective on digs and occasionally surprising guys at the point of attack. A 2.5 STL% reflects these skills.  

Overall, I like the way that Swish Theory’s own Matt Powers described Gradey Dick: “he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst.” Lights out wing shooters who move well off the ball and make quick decisions are ideal complementary players on offense. That describes Gradey perfectly. The hope is that Gradey finds a role defensively that can utilize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. If that can happen, I see Gradey starting in many high-stakes games in the future. 

Tier 3.5 – The Thompson Twins

10. Ausar Thompson, Wing, Overtime Elite

11. Amen Thompson, Guard, Overtime Elite

I said most of what I want to say about the Thompson twins in my draft strategy article, so I’ll include the relevant text here. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

I hope I’m not being flippant by putting the Thompson twins down here and discussing them as a group. That is not my intention. This is truly how I see them stacking up in this class. Putting myself in the general managers shoes, I really like the talent that I have in spots 1-9 enough to value them over the competition-driven uncertainty that the Thompsons have are surrounding them. They both could very well be amazing and that honestly wouldn’t surprise me. However, there are enough risks that make me wary of putting them higher on my board. This is where I will roll the dice.

Tier 4

12. Kobe Bufkin, Guard, Michigan

We’re starting Tier 4 off with Kobe Bufkin, who is like diet Cason Wallace in some ways. Painting with a broad brush, they’re both likely 3&D guards who have upside to become more than that. Bufkin has more to do than Wallace in order to hit his high end outcomes. Thus, he slots in a tier below Wallace. However, he’s a great player and projects to be a solid starting guard. 

Bufkin has a September 2003 birthday, which puts him around a lot of the one-and-dones in this class. Despite his thin 6’4, 175 pound frame, Bufkin was one of the better rim finishers in the class. He converted a borderline elite 64 unassisted shots at the rim, per HoopMath. Bufkin also projects to shoot. He shot 35.5 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per 100 and 84.9 percent from the line. These numbers are good on their own, but they’re much better when you see how improved they are compared to Bufkin’s freshman year. He only had a 22.2 3P% on similar per possession volume, albeit in a small sample. I always love to see big freshman to sophomore year shooting jumps from guards. Bufkin’s floater and off the dribble game will be a weapon for him as well.   

The question is whether or not Bufkin is a point guard at the next level. He only averaged 5.1 assists per 100, low for a typical point guard prospect, and he doesn’t have the first step quickness that would allow him to develop his passing faster. However, Bufkin does flash some high level passes. He’d certainly have more assists if he was allowed to play point guard full time. Bufkin can manipulate defenders well and deliver quick passes off a live dribble. As he fills out his frame, expect Bufkin to get a lot better as a passer. 

What gives Bufkin a bit more upside than some other guards down the board is the defense. Both his STL% and BLK% were > 2, which you don’t see too often from 6’4 guards. The shot blocking in particular really surprised me. Bufkin has no fear of getting up and contesting shots at the rim. That willingness to play above his size makes me think Bufkin is more ready to withstand the physicality of the NBA than his frame would otherwise suggest. It also helps that Bufkin stays in front of his man on the ball, navigates screens, and uses his quick hands to force steals. 

Overall, I’m hard-pressed to find a glaring flaw in Bufkin’s game. When an NBA strength program takes care of filling out his frame, the shooting, solid passing, and great defense will make Bufkin a good 3&D guard. As I said before, there’s upside here too. But, you’re betting that Bufkin a) is a true point guard and b) becomes a substantially better functional athlete inside the arc for him to get there. For now, I’m penciling him in as an uber-solid starting guard down the line. 

13. Sidy Cissoko, Wing, G-League Ignite

We’ve officially entered gamble territory, folks. Cissoko has a wide range of outcomes that include not sticking around the NBA and being a championship-quality role player. Once again, I’ll draw from my draft strategy article: 

In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent.

The reason why the list of traits mentioned above are often mentioned in the context of star prospects. But, such players often become some of the best role players in the league too. To me, this is Cissoko’s path to success. He is an excellent passer, and even has some live dribble stuff in his arsenal. Cissoko’s AST:TO ratio near two reflects his exceptional feel. He also has a functional handle, and defends wings at a high level. By the way, Cissoko averaged 3.2 stocks per 100 as an 18 year old in the G-League. His non-scoring production (the stuff that tends to matter more anyway) is elite given his age and competition level. 

I know this is one of the more overused comparisons ever, but there’s some Kyle Anderson to Cissoko’s game. Cissoko has some underrated athletic ability, but both are slower high-feel wings who just get stuff done. If Cissoko even shoots passably, he’ll be a huge steal in this draft. 

14. Jett Howard, Wing, Michigan

Jett Howard is a 6’8 wing that can really shoot the ball, having shot 36.8 percent from three on a whopping 13.6 attempts per 100. He also shot an even 80 percent from the line. You do not have to worry about the shooting at the next level. 6’8 wing who can shoot might have you picturing a typical 3&D wing, but we have to seriously worry about the defense component of that formula. 

Howard’s rates of rebounds (8.9 DRB%, 1.0 ORB%), steals (0.8 STL%) are historically low for a wing. If you search for wings of the past who were this bad in these effort-indicating stats, the list is not promising. When you watch Howard play, you can see why these stats were so low. He doesn’t make a lot happen as a team defender, and he gets cooked way too often on the ball. There isn’t really a position or type of athlete that he excels at defending, which is almost unheard of for his size. Howard has serious work to do as a defender, or else he’ll be a serious negative in the NBA. Plenty of people have faded Howard all the way to the 20s or even 30s on their board because of the defense, and I definitely understand why. 

But, we also can’t ignore Howard’s enticing dribble, pass, shoot skill set at 6’8. He has legit prowess off the dribble. He uses ball screens well and makes teams pay when they go under. The mechanics are perfect on every shot type too. I also like how he uses his handle to get to his midrange pull up. I’d like to see him get to the rim a lot more than he does, and I think that he has the handle and stride length to up his game there. Howard is also a good passer. His 1.59 AST:TO ratio is great for a 6’8 wing, and he has enough connective passing skill to function well in an NBA offense. 

Howard is a fascinating mix of enticing strengths and potentially debilitating weaknesses. There are a lot of different ways that his career could go. But, at the end of the day, I have to value a 6’8 wing with a dribble, pass, shoot skillset. Those players don’t grow on trees. If an NBA team can make Howard passable on defense, we’re talking about a really valuable player.

15. Keyonte George, Guard, Baylor

I was really high on Keyonte at the start of the season, and at one point he was fourth on my board before I really dove deep into other prospects. As you can see, I’ve soured on Keyonte quite a bit since then. If everything comes together, I still believe Keyonte can be a great scorer. But, I started to question if the juice was worth the squeeze with Keyonte. He isn’t a true point guard, so he falls into an NBA archetype that’s rife with pitfalls: scoring combo guards. Unless these players can contribute on offense, their impact is usually negligible. There are notably few who have been an integral part of deep playoff runs, as successful teams usually have a bunch of 6’6+ two-way players with perimeter skill contributing to their rotation instead. But, there’s a chance Keyonte makes it all work.

As I’ve said, he’s got the tools to be a great scorer in the league. His off the dribble game looks like it’ll translate, as he creates a ton of space on such shots and has good touch (79.3 FT%). HoopMath charted 28 made unassisted two point jumpers, and an absurd 29 unassisted threes. I’m fine with the low conversion rate of these shots for Keyonte, as volume and touch matter considerably more for freshman prospects. The 2023 guard class is generally poor at getting to the rim, and Keyonte is no different. Only 14.6 of his shots came at the rim, per HoopMath, and 3 dunks on the season doesn’t help Keyonte’s case as a downhill athlete. And yet, Keyonte shot 9.4 FTA per 100 compared to 11.5 2PA. A FTA:2PA ratio above 0.8 is quite rare, but it’s a threshold that many of the best players in the world hit in college. 

Passing-wise, Keyonte has some great flashes of advanced reads, but his sky-high turnover rate of 5.9 per 100 needs to be lowered significantly for a team to feel good about letting Keyonte run a second unit at some point. It’s far more likely that Keyonte has some secondary playmaking responsibilities, but that will come further down the road. 

Defensively, Keyonte competes, and I thought his on-ball defense in particular looked quite good at times. The concern is about whether Keyonte’s athletic ability will translate up a level to quicker NBA guards and wings. If it does, Keyonte might actually have some upside that puts this ranking to shame. If you squint, you can see a CJ McCollum type player here. Unfortunately, the far more likely outcome is that Keyonte becomes a score-only guard who you have to overpay to retain past his rookie deal. That puts him just outside the lottery. 

16. Anthony Black, Guard, Arkansas

Anthony Black is nearly universally loved on draft Twitter and clearly in NBA circles too. Some have Black as high as fourth on their draft boards. It’s not like I don’t see the appeal. Black is 6’6, really athletic off of two feet, slides with ball handlers well on defense, and can pass on offense. His 3.2 STL% and 1.8 BLK% are great numbers for a freshman, as is a whopping 0.578 FTr. However, Black strikes me as a classic jack of all trades, master of none connector prospect that we tend to overrate.

Black likely isn’t a primary ball handler in the NBA, as his rim pressure off the dribble is iffy, and he’s a virtual non-factor shooting off the dribble. Thus, Black likely needs to shoot in order to be a positive NBA player. I’m not sure I trust Black’s jumper enough to bet on the “if he shoots” outcome. His 30.1 3P% and 70.5 FT% aren’t great, and I really don’t trust the touch and mechanics. There’s a chance that teams are content ignoring Black when he’s spotting up for three. When Black is running the offense, teams will try to under him to death until he proves that won’t be a viable strategy. 

I’m sure Black will provide some value as a playmaker, and he has a good chance of being a positive defender in the NBA. But, we have to account for the possibility that Black’s offensive role will be a secondary creator who can’t shoot. Are we sure that his passing is good enough to really hurt defenses if that’s his role? I’m not. I am always willing to bet on smart, defensive-oriented wing sized players with pedigree going back to high school, but there are red flags aplenty here. Thus, the middle of the first round feels right for Black. 

17. Dereck Lively II, Big, Duke

Lively is a traditional center who averaged 5.2 points per game last season at Duke. You read that right. 5.2 PPG. So, we’re not off to a good start here. But, the rest of Lively’s profile mirrors that of many successful bigs in the NBA. Lively blocked 7.2 shots per 100 possessions, corralled offensive rebounds better than anyone in this class (12.4 OREB%), and had a positive AST:TO ratio, having averaged 3.2 assists per 100 to just 2.0 turnovers, a remarkably low number for a big man. Of course, the low turnover numbers were helped by the fact that Lively’s usage on offense was exclusively rim running and offensive rebounds. But, it’s better to have those numbers than not have them!

I want to circle back to the absurd 7.2 blocks per 100. As crazy as it sounds, that might actually be underrating Lively’s rim protection abilities. As the season went on, Lively began to have a Rudy Gobert-esque effect on drivers. Players were terrified to even shoot at the rim when Lively was parked in the paint. Combine that with some hip fluidity and lateral mobility, Lively has legit DPOY upside in his high-end outcomes. 

Additionally, reports from Lively’s pro day said that Lively was making corner threes with ease. The mechanics actually looked pretty good at Duke, so we have to account for an outside chance that Lively becomes a pick and pop threat. If he does, 17 will be wayyyy too low for Lively.

Lively probably ends up being selected in the lottery tomorrow, but I can’t quite get there. I tend to fade traditional centers on my board anyway, and the complete lack of a scoring game scares me on offense. I value the film that I saw of Lively (and one game in person against UVA where he got played off the floor offensively) over pro day reports and workout videos. I don’t want to bank on DPOY upside for a lottery ranking either. If Lively is a positive defender but not an All-Defense guy, that becomes a less enticing proposition. 

18. Colby Jones, Guard, Xavier

Colby Jones is one of my favorites in this class. He’s a 6’5, 200 pound guard who is kind of good at everything. He’s young for a junior, as he only just turned 21, and his per 100 statline is a thing of beauty: 24.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists (to 3.8 turnovers), 2.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Jones also shot 56.3 percent on twos and 37.8 percent from three. 

The jump shot is not a sure thing, as Jones had a career-low 65.8 FT% this past season. However, the mechanics look good off the catch. I trust Jones to drain catch and shoot jumpers in the NBA. If he can do that, there’s an important role for him on offense due to his passing. Jones initiated a lot of offense at Xavier, and he involved his teammates at a high rate. Jones actually eclipsed the AST%:USG% ratio > 1 threshold I discussed earlier with Cason Wallace. 

 Jones projects to hold his own defensively too. He averaged 2.4 steals per 100 for his career at Xavier, and his technique getting into ball handlers and navigating screens is excellent. Off the ball, Jones is keenly aware of man and ball, and his rotations are on-time and disruptive. His smarts and effort on that end should earn him playing time early in his career. 

Athletic concerns and worries about Jones’ jump shot likely drop him into the late first or early second round. But, I love Jones in the top 20. I believe he will shoot, and he’s too smart of a passer and defender to not contribute in the NBA for a while. 

19. Brandin Podziemski, Guard, Santa Clara

Brandin “Air Podz” Podziemski is another fun prospect that teams should be considering starting around pick 15. Athleticism is the obvious concern with Podz. It’s possible that he’s just Nik Stauskas, who was an excellent high-feel shooter in college. He just didn’t meet the athletic threshold required to stick around the NBA. Now that we’ve acknowledged the potential downside, allow me to start gushing about Podz. 

Let’s start with the per 100 stats, an absurd average of 31 points, 13.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.7 blocks. Podz also shot 43.8 percent from three on 9.0 attempts per 100 and posted an elite 10.7 BPM. For someone with athletic concerns, those steal and rebound rates are really impressive. For me, those numbers reflect Podz’s incredible mind for the game. As I said in my draft strategy article, Podz is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to contribute one way or another. 

Defensively, Podz will have to be hidden off the ball. He regularly got cooked on the ball, a problem that will only get worse in the NBA. But, as a team defender, Podz competes hard and disrupts much more than you’d expect him to. He makes timely rotations, opportunistically digs down to force steals, and fights through screens to the best of his ability. One thing is for sure: effort won’t hold Podz back on defense. On offense, Podz will continue to shoot the lights out and make high level passing reads as a secondary creator, a la Luke Kennard. His handle should translate enough to snake his way into the lane and hit floaters too, which accounted for many of his 50 unassisted two point makes. 

Like I said, Podziemski has plenty of downside rooted in the fact he might get matchup hunted to death on defense. But, you have to bet on production and impact to the degree Podz has it at a certain point on the board. 

20. Dariq Whitehead, Wing, Duke

Whitehead is an interesting bet, as his role at Duke was pretty much exclusively to knock down catch and shoot threes. He was certainly up for the task, as he shot 42.9 percent from three on 10.4 attempts per 100. The added layers of intrigue with Whitehead come from his high school pedigree (#1 RSCI), and the fact that he doesn’t turn 19 until August 1st. Whitehead was far too turnover prone for his role at 4.1 per 100, and he didn’t do much in the way of advantage creation either. But, a super young 6’6 wing who can shoot? That’s a pretty good starting point. A 2.2 STL% is nothing to sneeze at either. 

The flip side with Whitehead is that he’s completely inept when he walks inside the three point line at this stage of his career. He actually shot worse from two than he did from three, posting an abysmal 41.4 2P%. Another looming issue with Whitehead is the medical situation. Whitehead dealt with a foot injury all of this season, which took away a lot of the athletic ability he showed in high school. Had he been healthy, there’s a chance Whitehead could have shown much more inside the arc. It’s worth noting that he had a second surgery on his foot after the season ended, so I have a hard time making an upside bet on Whitehead predicated on regaining his athleticism. 

Overall, the combination of wing size, youth, pedigree, and shooting will always be intriguing. But, there’s a chance Whitehead has a tough time developing despite those valuable traits. He’s a tough one to pin down. 

21. Bilal Coulibaly, Wing, Metropolitans 92

No prospect experienced a meteoric rise quite like Victor Wembanyama’s teammate Bilal Coulibaly. He went from playing in the French second division to starting alongside Wemby in the French League finals. He wasn’t just ball-watching out there either. Mets 92 trusted Coulibaly to run some pick and roll in this critical setting. The degree of development within the year is unbelievable. The question is: was it enough to make Coulibaly a top prospect? 

The NBA seems to think so, as Coulibaly is unlikely to fall out of the lottery. I have been a little more reserved when moving him up my board. The good with Coulibaly is that he’s 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and young, with a July 2004 birthday. He also really fights on defense. I love his ability to navigate screens and stick with ball handlers. The potential to be a menace on the ball is absolutely there. 

Offensively, Coulibaly can handle the ball a bit and his decision making is trending in the right direction. Some have cited Coulibaly’s physical tools as a reason to believe he will develop into a borderline All-Star level creator. Basically, a compounding skills type of proposition. While Coulibaly has some juice, I certainly don’t think it’s on that level. I also don’t trust Coulibaly’s shot. In particular, the touch worries me. He only shot 62.7% from the line, and he had some ugly misses on his pull up, a shot he would need if he’s a creator bet. 

Overall, my instinct is that Coulibaly tops out as an energy wing at the next level. But, if Coulibaly keeps developing at this rate, he could really burn me for ranking him this low. I guess we’ll see.  

22. Brice Sensabaugh, Wing, Ohio St.

As a 6’6, 235 pound freshman, Brice averaged 40.3 points per 100 on an efficient 58.7 TS%. Surely we’re all overthinking this and he should be a consensus top five pick. Well, not so fast. 

While he’s got unbelievable touch, I’m concerned Brice’s athleticism isn’t conducive to being an effective on-ball scorer in the NBA. He isn’t very explosive, and I think he looks stiff in his movement patterns. Normally, we talk about prospects filling out their frame when discussing potential improvements to their functional athleticism. Brice is the opposite. He needs to slim down and gain some quickness and fluidity. 

That stiff movement also affects Brice on defense, where he is a clear negative. I actually question whether or not Brice will play NBA minutes in his first season because of his defense; it’s that bad. His 1.3 STL% and 1.7 BLK% are unremarkable for a wing, and Brice is completely lost as a team defender at this point. He also averaged a staggering 6.7 fouls per 100. Brice’s passing also leaves a lot to be desired. He shows some flashes, but almost two turnovers for every assist tells you all you need to know for the current state of affairs.  

On a much more positive note, Brice has a case for the best shooter in the draft. He shot 40.5% from three on high volume, as well as 83 percent from the line. If nothing else, he’ll provide a lights out stroke from deep. But, it’s likely he’ll provide more than that on offense. You don’t reach the scoring heights Brice did unless you have some tricks up your sleeve. He mastered isolation scoring at the college level, and has one of the best midrange pull ups I’ve seen from a draft prospect. 

Basketball games are won by one team putting the ball through the net more times than their opponent. Brice does that at an elite level. But, the questions about literally everything else keep him outside my top 20. 

Tier 5

At this point in the draft, there are two main types of bets you can make. You can draft someone whose right tail outcome isn’t all that inspiring, but they have a high chance of being a quality rotation player. Conversely, you can swing for the fences on someone who clearly isn’t ready, but there’s just enough to build on such that you might have a decent player down the road. It’s tough to rank these two types alongside each other, so my solution is to split Tier 5 into a few groups, some of which contain safer players and others more risky ones. 

Tier 5a – Preferred Rotation Bets

23. Marcus Sasser, Guard, Houston

If you watched the playoffs this year, you know that successful teams often have 3&D guards start alongside jumbo creators. Sasser projects to fill this role perfectly. He’s a bit short at 6’1, but he has a sturdy 195 pound frame. He uses every ounce of strength he has to bother guys at the point of attack. A 3.2 STL% shows how disruptive Sasser can be. Then there’s the shooting. Sasser shot 38.4% from three on 13.9 attempts per 100 and 84.8% from the line. Sasser has a prolific midrange pull up game he can use too, should defenders run him off the line. Sasser won’t be running pick and roll every possession for you, but his 1.94 shows that you can rely on him to make quality decisions within the flow of the offense. It’s easy to picture Sasser helping a playoff team and playing a decade in the NBA. He’d be a great option for a contender. 

24. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Wing, UCLA

Jaime Jaquez is an older 6’6 wing who is far from a sure thing to shoot. That’s a shaky foundation, but Jaquez has just about everything else you could ask for. He filled up the box score, having averaged 31.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per 100. It might not surprise you to know that Jaquez also had a 10.7 BPM. Additionally, Jaquez just has a knack for making the right play. He had a super low 9.9 TOV%, and he is great at putting his teammates in positions to succeed. I like Jaquez’s anticipation as a team defender too. Jaquez also fits brilliantly with any team because of his motor. He’s always diving for loose balls, crashing the glass, and intensely guarding ball handlers. Jaquez is simply a tone setter who will enhance his team on the court as well as in the locker room. If the rumor is true that Miami is locked in on Jaime at 18, I can’t imagine a better fit. 

25. Jordan Hawkins, Guard, UConn

Prospects who play for the national champs have been overrated in the past because they’re labeled as winners. Sometimes the shoe fits, but more often than not scouts anchor that one player to the accomplishments of an entire team. I’m worried that’s what some are doing with Hawkins. That said, this is the best shooter in the draft. His mechanics are picture-perfect and the speed of his release is Klay Thompson-esque. You might want to sit down for these numbers: 38.8 3P% on 15.1 attempts per 100 and an 88.7 FT%. Hawkins isn’t higher on my board because I don’t trust him to do much else at an NBA level. I see Isaiah Joe as a reasonable outcome if Hawkins gets better at weaponizing his gravity to create for others and improves as a team defender. If he’s just a pure shooting specialist, Hawkins could run into some issues deep in the playoffs. But, when the shooting is THIS good, it’s hard to pass on.

Tier 5b – Preferred Raw Prospect Gambles

26. Maxwell Lewis, Wing, Pepperdine 

No prospect has had more of a roller coaster ride on my board this year than Maxwell Lewis. At one point, I was all in. I saw the potential wing shot creator with functional length on defense and budding playmaking. I even wrote about Lewis during the preseason, anticipating that he would be a top 20 guy for me this cycle. Unfortunately, while all the enticing tools were still on display, another year went by where Lewis didn’t put it together. The propensity for turnovers from his freshman year carried over, as he averaged 4.2 of them per 100. But, the real worries come on defense. Lewis has always had incredibly slow hips, which make it impossible to contain ball handlers. But, I had some optimism about him as a team defender. That optimism waned when Lewis’ steal rate dropped to an abysmal 1.1 per 100. To make matters worse, Lewis is older than you’d like for a prospect this raw – he’ll be 21 on NBA opening day. There’s enough to work with that I’ll hold out a little hope that everything comes together and Lewis becomes a two-way shot creating wing. But, he has a long way to go. 

27. Julian Phillips, Forward, Tennessee

People are sleeping on this guy quite a bit! I didn’t really register how good of an athlete Phillips is until the combine when he killed it on the vertical jump. I didn’t pay too much attention to Phillips during the season because I thought of him as a multi-year guy. But, I dove deeper after the combine, and I think we’ve got a fascinating development case to monitor here. An uber-athletic 6’8 wing who got fouled as much as he did (0.615 FTr) and was an advanced defender for a freshman deserves consideration. The shot isn’t as hopeless as his 23.9 3P% suggests either. Phillips shot 82.2 percent from the line last year. Going back a couple years, he shot an eye-opening 37 percent from three in high school and AAU play. Phillips could be a 3&D wing hiding in plain sight, he just needs a patient development staff. 

28. Noah Clowney, Forward, Alabama

Clowney is a tough one because the long term vision for him is to be a stretch four, yet he can’t shoot right now. He only shot 28.3 percent from three and 64.9 percent from the line. The mechanics give people (including me) some hope, though. Clowney shoots a smooth, comfortable ball, and he’s young enough (July 2004 birthday) that the results have time to catch up to the eye test. Even though he’s skinny, Clowney is already a great functional athlete. His gaudy 66.9 2P% and 17.2 rebounds per 100 reflect that. All-in-one metrics love Clowney as well. He posted a 8.3 BPM, and he frequently ranks highly in draft models. Clowney likely needs time in the G-League, but I’ll always approve of betting on functional athleticism and the potential of perimeter skill. 

Tier 5c – Next Rotation Guys Up 

29. Jalen Slawson, Wing, Furman

Yup, I’ve got a 23 year old wing from Furman in my top 30. Talk to the hand. In all seriousness, Slawson is someone I’ve liked since his junior year. His statistical profile is a thing of beauty. At 6’7, 210 pounds, He shot 62.6% from two, 39.4% from three, had a 19.9 AST%, 2.9 STL%, and 5.3 BLK%. Insane. Slawson has always been incredibly smart. He was an elite event creator on defense every year at Furman, and he’s an excellent passer capable of dicing up defenses from the high post and the top of the key. Slawson’s age means he needs to contribute quickly in order to stick in the league, and I’m confident he’ll do just that. What team can’t use a wing who wreaks havoc on defense, makes smart decisions, and can knock down an open shot? There’s no guarantee that Slawson can hang athletically in the NBA. If there was, he’d be much higher on my board. But, I’m betting Slawson will tighten the bolts and improve just as he’s done every year of his career. If Slawson goes undrafted, it would be an absolute steal. 

30. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Big, Indiana

In my draft strategy article, I talked about how Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round. The bigs who buck the trend of being played off the floor in the playoffs have high positional feel and/or ball screen coverage versatility. Oftentimes, big prospects who fit this mold are available in the second round. Xavier Tillman was that guy in 2021, and Jaylin Williams was in 2022. I had a top 20 grade on Tillman and a top 25 grade on Williams, and both have turned into quality NBA centers. Jackson-Davis falls here to 30 because he’s not super tall and isn’t nearly as switchable as Tillman and Williams. 

His scoring game isn’t super exciting and will exclusively revolve around rim running and getting putbacks. It helps that Jackson-Davis is a great rebounder. But, Jackson-Davis really sets himself apart with his passing. His 24.8 AST% is better than most of the guard prospects in this draft! I love the laser beams Jackson-Davis throws to open shooters out of the post. His quick decision making in the short roll will be an asset too. Defensively, Jackson-Davis has more mobility than he gets credit for. He’ll be system-dependent in the NBA – if you can get him to be a help defender rather than the primary rim protector on defense, good things will happen. It’s not a sexy pick, but Jackson-Davis has a good chance to contribute for a while. 

31. Ben Sheppard, Wing, Belmont

Sheppard is another guy I’ll admit to not taking super seriously until after the combine. Sheppard killed it in the second combine scrimmage, where he showed how helpful his shooting and feel can be for a team. Sheppard shot 41.5 percent from three this past season on 10.2 attempts per 100. The shot itself looks good, and he can get it off in a variety of different movement situations. What’s perplexing about Sheppard’s shooting is the 69.6 FT% for his career. There’s a tug of war between the production from three and the touch indicator at the line, but I trust what I’m seeing in the shot. Sheppard also had an AST:TO ratio comfortably over one and a solid 2.3 STL% to round out his role player profile. Sheppard’s athleticism will be tested on defense in the NBA. He needs to get much stronger, but his anticipation and motor will help him contribute defensively as his frame fills out. Sheppard doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he’s got a good chance to contribute to a rotation within the next couple years.  

32. Kobe Brown, Forward, Missouri

As a 6’7, 250 pound power forward, Kobe Brown scored in volume (30.1 points per 100), was an excellent processor and passer (4.9 assists per 100 to 3.2 turnovers), and defended cerebrally (career 2.5 STL% and 2.4 BLK%). Brown has the size and skill combination to contribute for a long time in the NBA. The lynchpin with Brown is the shot. He had a virtually unprecedented improvement in his 3P%, from 20.6% his junior year to 45.5% last year. His shot looks good, but betting on a one year sample of great shooting from an upperclassman has burned scouts in the past. So, I’m proceeding with caution here. If Brown does shoot, he could be used as an effective stretch four or small-ball five given his strong frame.  

33. Kris Murray, Wing, Iowa

Kris Murray’s twin is Keegan Murray, last year’s fourth overall pick by the Kings. It’s possible that Kris is being mocked in the first based on his relation to Keegan. Personally, I don’t get it with Kris. The shot is far from a guarantee (career 69.9 FT%), and he didn’t stand out in any particular way as a defender. The low turnover rate is nice to see for a wing, but I usually want to see low turnovers in conjunction with a projectable jumper. Kris will also be 23 on opening day. So, if he’s going to iron out the jumper or get better on defense, it needs to happen soon. Murray slots in here because I have to account for the possibility that the jumper is real. A 6’8 wing who can shoot likely sticks around for a while. But, teams shouldn’t draft Kris Murray thinking that they’re getting Keegan.  

Tier 5d – A Couple More Decent Gambles 

34. James Nnaji, Big, Barcelona

As an 18 year old, Nnaji earned minutes for a Barcelona team littered with former NBA players. That’s intriguing enough on its own. Then there’s the physical tools: 7’0 tall, 7’7 wingspan, a chiseled 250 pound frame, a functional vertical, and surprisingly decent mobility. Nnaji used that athleticism to become one of the better shot blockers in the Spanish ACB, posting a 6.4 BLK%. Perhaps more impressively, the BLK% jumped up to 8.2 in his 19 Euroleague games. Offensively, Nnaji will be exclusively used as a rim runner. He doesn’t have a prayer to shoot, and he won’t be trusted to make passing reads. But, Nnaji is a massive lob threat, and I trust that he’ll get some easy buckets because of that. As a stash option, I don’t mind it if a team drafts Nnaji to see where his physical tools can take him. He’s on a great development trajectory, so there could really be something here. 

35. Amari Bailey, Guard, UCLA

There are plenty of reasons not to consider Bailey. His low three point volume and FT% have me skeptical about his shot. Bailey also averaged 5.4 turnovers per 100, dreadful for a non-initiator. But, Bailey is fairly athletic, and I thought he showed some good stuff on defense. His 2.3 STL% and 3.3 DBPM are quite good for a freshman. I don’t like factoring the combine in too much, but Bailey looked much improved as a passer in the scrimmages. If Bailey can pass, defend, and continue to hone his jumper, he could become a rotation guy down the line. 

Tier 6 – The Rest

36. Julian Strawther, Wing, Gonzaga

37. Seth Lundy, Wing, Penn State

38. Jalen Hood-Schifino, Guard, Indiana

39. Nick Smith Jr., Guard, Arkansas

40. GG Jackson, Forward, South Carolina

41. Hunter Tyson, Wing, Clemson

42. Jordan Walsh, Wing, Arkansas

43. Jordan Miller, Wing, Miami (FL)

44. Jalen Pickett, Guard, Penn State

45. Jaylen Clark, Guard, UCLA

46. Adama Sanogo, Big, UConn

47. D’Moi Hodge, Guard, Missouri

48. Craig Porter Jr., Guard, Wichita St

49. Toumani Camara, Wing, Dayton

50. Andre Jackson Jr., Wing, UConn

51. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Wing, Marquette

52. Tristan Vukcevic, Big, KK Partizan

53. Terquavion Smith, Guard, NC State

54. Isaiah Wong, Guard, Miami (FL)

55. Ricky Council IV, Guard, Arkansas

56. Azuolas Tubelis, Big, Arizona

57. Mohamed Gueye, Forward, Washington St.

58. Landers Nolley III, Wing, Cincinnati

59. Mike Miles Jr., Guard, TCU

60. Jalen Wilson, Wing, Kansas

61. Rayan Rupert, Wing, NZ Breakers

62. Omari Moore, Guard, San Jose State

63. Justyn Mutts, Forward, Virginia Tech

64. Tosan Evbuomwam, Forward, Princeton

65. Chris Livingston, Wing, Kentucky

66. Liam Robbins, Big, Vanderbilt

67. Colin Castleton, Big, Florida

68. Kendric Davis, Guard, Memphis

69. Alex Fudge, Wing, Florida

70. Caleb McConnell, Wing, Rutgers

71. Sir’Jabari Rice, Wing, Texas

72. Taylor Funk, Forward, Utah St

73. Jacob Toppin, Forward, Kentucky

74. Charles Bediako, Big, Alabama

75. Deshawndre Washington, Wing, New Mexico St

76. Drew Timme, Big, Gonzaga

77. Oscar Tshiebwe, Big, Kentucky

78. Emoji Bates, Wing, Eastern Michigan

79. Mojave King, Guard, G-League Ignite

80. Leaky Black, Wing, UNC

The post Michael Neff’s 2023 Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

I wanted to look at how the four prospects associated most with Detroit fit alongside the current roster. Those would be Houston forward Jarace Walker, UCF forward Taylor Hendricks, Overtime Elite forward Ausar Thompson, and Villanova forward Cam Whitmore. For the purposes of this exercise, the roster heading into the draft and free agency is as follows:

Guards: Cade Cunningham / Jaden Ivey / Alec Burks / Killian Hayes

Wings: Bojan Bogdanovic / Isaiah Livers

Bigs: Jalen Duren / Isaiah Stewart / Marvin Bagley III / James Wiseman 

Potential Departures: RJ Hampton, Eugene Omoruyi, Hamidou Diallo, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, Buddy Boeheim, Jared Rhoden

Obviously, wing is the position of need and the only one that the team has yet to address in the draft process since Troy Weaver has taken over. Three of the four prospects they are rumored to be interested in would fit. 

So, naturally, we will start on the other end. This will work as me asking Charlie about what each prospect brings to the team and then I will assess further from the on-court product we have seen over the last few seasons. 

Jarace Walker

The DMV native brings a lot of what Detroit basketball has always been about. He is a defensive force and a solid playmaker. As the team looks to compete for the play-in this season, improving on the defensive end is imperative. For everything Pistons fans have loved about Isaiah Stewart, Walker is likely a better version of that. However, therein lies the fit questions.

Question: Charlie, Walker is a dog. He would fit in any era of this franchise, but the current fit is questionable. Is there a world where he can play on the wing or alongside two of the three of Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, and/or James Wiseman?

Answer: I think Detroit could view Jarace Walker as a missing puzzle piece for multiple reasons. Jalen Duren is the long-term starter at the 5 and plays some excellent defense in addition to controlling the glass. But he cannot shoulder the load and develop at the same time. The two would benefit each other greatly, switching between tough assignments and knowing they have extra protection when put into offensive actions. 

I think he also brings a lot of order to the roster, and the vision of this team. Troy Weaver loves bigs, and is willing to sacrifice spacing for rebounding, defense, and transition prowess. Jarace profiles as an immediate starter, and gives them a chance to see what a Stewart/Wiseman frontcourt looks like for the bench. They can mix-and-match with this group as needed, bringing the flexibility Monty Williams would love to have with a young roster.

I don’t really think Jarace can do enough offensively to be a 3 next to two of those others, unfortunately. You can overcome two non-shooting bigs with effective cutting, screening, and a large offensive rebounding margin, but three really puts clamps on the offensive playmakers. He certainly can fit defensively if the offensive skills come around, but I wouldn’t be counting on it.

This is a pretty valid point in Walker’s favor that I had not previously considered. Much of the previous iteration of this roster was perpetuated on a two-big system that would be available both in the starting rotation and the bench. Walker bringing a better version of the Stewart game means that not only can they regularly run two bigs, but the system will remain unchanged. 

Defensive versatility would be the calling card here and would necessitate looking for shooting elsewhere, likely in free agency. Moving on from Marvin Bagley would become an increasing likelihood given that he would be a fifth big. 

Taylor Hendricks

The quintessential 3-and-D prospect, Taylor Hendricks feels like the perfect fit for what this team is looking to add. Detroit finished in the bottom third of 3-point shooting percentage and among the worst defensive teams in the league. Can Hendricks really fill these needs?

Question: Hendricks feels like the ideal fit for this team. Do you see it that way? Is taking him at five too much of a reach? Bonus question, if they were to trade back to take him while picking up a second first-round pick, who do you think they should look at?

Answer: I do think he is a great fit, but the value is dubious. It’s highly unlikely the Pistons are not in a position to take one (or both) of the Thompson twins. Both fit a similar mold to Hendricks but with much more creation upside. Jarace Walker will be available unless there is a massive surprise. He brings a more refined offensive skillset with similarly bankable defensive tools. It’s hard to envision a world where Hendricks is the best fit AND value at 5.

But a trade back brings interesting questions. If a team like Utah is hell-bent on moving up to 5 and willing to trade one of their extra firsts, I’d jump on the chance. This class is deep, and even if Hendricks doesn’t make it to the trade-back spot, strong options will be available. Detroit should take the upside shot with the top 10 pick and find another wing later on. This is where this class is deepest. If they can walk away with Hendricks and Leonard Miller or GG Jackson, their wing group could be set.

This is the dream trade-back scenario and needed to be included in the considerations. There are rumors aplenty regarding the likes of Utah, Oklahoma City, and even Indiana packaging picks to move up and Weaver has never been shy to make a draft-day trade.

There are obviously plenty of young players on the roster, but again they have not invested these project picks in the wing. Doing that with two bites of the apple in a draft with wing depth would be the perfect cap to Detroit’s four years of draft restoration under Troy Weaver before turning their eyes to play-in contention. 

Ausar Thompson

Swinging more for the fences, Ausar Thompson has been a riser in the time since the Overtime Elite season has ended. For much of the predraft process, his twin brother Amen was looked at as the clearly better prospect. While he may still go higher in the draft, some are starting to come around to Ausar potentially being the better Thompson. Regardless, he fits better positionally in Detroit and would help cement them as the most athletic young core in the league. 

Question: Can Ausar Thompson play alongside two guards and be more of an ancillary playmaker while still being effective? Does this all depend on the shot actually developing?

Answer: Yes, yes, and no. Ausar’s outstanding defense and work ethic make me believe he can fit any backcourt. He’s great at running in transition and shows signs of knowing when to cut and go baseline on offense. He can play make in all fashions: off extended PNR or isolation reps, drives off closeouts, or finding quick swing passes or hitting cutters off the catch. The shot can certainly develop. But his high level of talent with and without the ball in his hands will keep the wheels greased offensively. And with the kind of defensive potential he brings, it makes for a great weapon next to Cunningham and Ivey.

For me personally, this would be the pick if the Pistons remain at five. The upside is sky-high. If you are going to take a prospect without shooting on the wing they have to bring a number of other things to the table. Ausar Thompson brings plenty to the table. 

Work ethic has been a key personality trait for the Pistons regime and Thompson would fit right in. He would bring additional playmaking and defense to a team in need of juicing up both. Imagining him running in transition with Cunningham and Ivey is tantalizing. 

Cam Whitmore

For most Detroit fans, this is the ideal choice once we fell to fifth in the draft. While his season at Villanova was less than had been hoped for, Cam Whitmore has sky-high potential. His decision-making needs work, to say the least, but this roster could be what unlocks him.

Question: Outside of Wembanyama, many within the fanbase have suggested that Cam Whitmore is the best fit for this roster. Do you see him as having star potential, or is there something that is likely to hold him back from that?

Answer: I think Cam has a case for a strong fit, but not for good reasons. I’m very low on the kind of creation burden he can hold long-term. So in this sense, he fits very well with a Cade/Ivey starting unit. The shooting is fine and he has some midrange potential. But he has side-to-side athleticism and handle concerns. I think that will ultimately limit his ability to impact the offense at the rim outside of cuts. 

The overall work ethic is a concern for me, not only for the offensive development but his entire defensive game. He’s not quick enough to defend up on slimmer wings or most guards. He mostly profiles as a rotating 4 on defense. It’s the lowest-end proposition for a defensive outcome unless you are elite like a Jaren Jackson Jr. Cam doesn’t have the feel or functional athleticism to get there in my eyes.

If you had asked me two weeks ago where Detroit went, it would have been Cam if he was still on the board. I no longer believe that to be the case, and Charlie really outlined why. As much as the personality fit for the first three guys was clean, Whitmore feels the opposite.

Given how often both Weaver and Monty Williams mentioned not only prioritizing talent but work ethic and culture, Whitmore feels like the kind of guy that they stay away from. That is not to say he will not be a success in this league. I just doubt it will be in the Motor City.

The post Detroit Pistons Draft Day Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

Lately, I have been dissatisfied with using a big board as a means of properly reflecting my thoughts on a given draft class. I would target certain players in each range of the draft. The rest are just red herrings who are decent to good prospects, but I am fine missing out on them. That’s why forming a big board is so challenging. There are guys like Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown who I have strong conviction about as second round fliers. Conversely, there are some projected first round guys who I am lower on such as Nick Smith and Jalen Hood-Schifino. I have spent too many hours staring at my big board spreadsheet asking myself how to rank these guys. The objectively correct move is likely to rank the young high RSCI guy above Slawson, a 23-year old wing from Furman. But, that feels weird to me! I like Slawson a lot and I’m not a Nick Smith fan. Shouldn’t my board reflect that? 

The obvious phenomenon at hand is that I am anchoring my perception of these players to their projected draft ranges. We all do it, and that is completely fine. But, translating this into a big board proves difficult, muddying the waters of my actual thoughts on the draft class. I would rather articulate my overarching strategy, isolate the prospects I have conviction about, and leave the rest be. That’s exactly what the piece will cover: the best way of attacking the 2023 NBA Draft, as I see it. 

I will be providing a big board closer to draft day as well, if for no other reason than it is fun. But, I feel that this will be a great accompanying piece that better articulates my thoughts on the draft class. Here goes: 

The Spurs Have Already Won the Draft

Victor Wembanyama is the prize of this draft. He is the prize of the past ten drafts, and probably the next ten drafts. Nothing any other team does in this draft will have the impact that the Spurs winning the lottery will have on them. As the saying goes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Spurs lucked into this guy: https://youtu.be/L33JKYc1ZKA

Anything else the Spurs do on draft day in the second round or with some sort of trade is icing on the cake. Additionally, nothing they do in other areas of the draft will tarnish their night. As far as I am concerned, they can take it easy on draft prep and make sure they get their beauty sleep in the nights leading up to the draft. It’s Victor Wembanyama. Not much more to say there. 

Once Wemby is off the board, I am not drafting anyone else if Scoot Henderson is still on the board. 

I see the Brandon Miller chatter just like everyone else does. I can tell you right now that passing on Scoot Henderson with the number 2 pick would be a huge mistake. Trading away your pick when you have a chance to pick Scoot would also be a mistake (I’m looking at you, Portland). While he isn’t perfect, he is by far the next-best bet to become a star this year. 

A powerful 6’2 guard, Scoot is a walking paint touch who uses his speed/power combination to get to the rim better than anyone in the class – when he wants to. Many scouts observed that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks in favor of midrange jumpers as the season progressed. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic wrote an excellent article on this problem with Scoot where he suggested that Scoot was trying to be careful and avoid injury as soon as he locked up a high draft pick. Everything I’ve read about Scoot’s leadership, poise, maturity, and work ethic is outstanding, so I highly doubt this was a reflection of his character. Also, he can do this: https://twitter.com/nbagleague/status/1610446654796173324?s=20

I think he’s going to be more than fine generating paint touches and getting the most out of his athletic tools.  

Additionally, Scoot is already advanced at everything required of a primary offensive initiator with his athleticism. He is comfortable shooting off the dribble, and has a two year sample of advanced passing in the G-League. For my money, Scoot Henderson is as easy of a bet to be a primary offensive initiator that I have evaluated. He will be an amazing consolation prize for whoever ends up with him. If the team is not Charlotte, that will be the first major inefficiency at play in this draft. 

Successful teams are littered with 6’6+ wing players with two way impact. Draft strategy should be geared towards finding such players

Watch any high level NBA game, and you’ll find versatile and skilled wing sized players filling out every rotation. You can’t have enough of these guys. Luckily, the top of this draft has plenty to choose from. Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, and Gradey Dick are perfect options in the 3-14 range for teams. All bring youth, smarts, versatility, and a wide-ranging skill set that will allow them to contribute in a multitude of ways. Some are more ready to contribute than others, but all have upside and are likely to play in many high-stakes games. 

There are also a collection of smart and versatile wing-sized players down the board that will likely be underdrafted. Colby Jones is a potential first rounder that teams should be targeting. If he shoots, Sidy Cissoko is quietly a very complete prospect who also has time on his side with an April 2004 birthday. Jett Howard has plenty of flaws, but he can dribble, pass, and shoot at 6’8. Using this criteria, there is a large collection of sleepers that can be had for an inconsequential draft pick or maybe none at all: Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Jalen Slawson, Ben Sheppard, Toumani Camara, Anton Watson (please teach this man how to play offense), even someone like Justyn Mutts is very overlooked by NBA teams right now. There are plenty of fliers that can and should be taken by teams. Not all of these guys are going to hit, but if they do, that is a potential playoff contributor acquired for extraordinarily cheap. I’d rather do that than pick Drew Timme in the 40s. 

Notice I didn’t mention the Thompson twins. Let’s have that discussion now. 

I am fine letting other teams bet on the Thompson twins, given where they are projected to go. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

Always be on the lookout for players with a “compounding skills” profile

In the 2020 draft cycle, I wrote a detailed article about why I had Anthony Edwards as my number one prospect. It’s easy to forget, but a lot of people had Edwards at two or even lower throughout that cycle. I remained steadfast that he was the guy everyone should be after at the top. Why? He had what I called a “compounding skills” profile: essentially, the evolution of a raw, fluid athlete who scores in volume into a complete offensive player. I’ll link that article here. I’d urge you to at least read the introduction to get a better idea of my thought process here. 

I used the same logic to rank Jalen Green high on my board in 2021, as well as Jaden Ivey last year. This year, Cam Whitmore jumps out as the compounding skills candidate of choice. He heavily prefers jumping off two feet and winning with strength. That style of finishing generally has some trouble translating, but I am not sure it’s going to matter with Whitmore. I have also not seen a speed/power athlete moving towards the rim quite like Whitmore since Anthony Edwards. His flashes getting downhill, moving defenders off their spots, getting his shoulder past them, and finishing through contact are special. He also shows shooting touch and flashes versatility in terms of shot type and location which screams three-level scorer. He also has all the tools you could possibly want on defense, already boasting a high steal rate and some eye-popping weak side rim protection.  

There are also plenty of concerns. He had more than two turnovers for every assist, and his off the dribble game is much more theoretical at this stage – as was the case with many compounding skills prospects before Whitmore. When you look at guys with athleticism this special who flashed real perimeter skill, the fail rate is basically zero, and they often become All-Star caliber players. Whitmore also has plenty of time to develop, as he doesn’t turn 19 until July 8th. 

We often underestimate the upside of freshman-aged prospects who are billed as guaranteed role players. 

In the past, myself and others have referred to these types of guys as “false-ceiling” prospects. These prospects are rightfully considered good basketball players who are likely to contribute early, but their avenues to greater upside are ignored. My favorite recent example of a false ceiling prospect is Franz Wagner, who I had as my 12th ranked prospect in 2021. Franz is the prospect who forced me to internalize the lesson of false ceiling prospects in the first place. Many, including me, thought of him as someone who could become a quality role player in the NBA. But, I missed the point entirely. Franz was a freshman-aged prospect with some pro experience in Europe and was highly impactful at Michigan. Because he was already great at basketball, I moved him down in favor of guys with more upside (translation: they were worse at basketball and had more room to improve). I vowed not to make the same mistake. 

In my mind, there are two false ceiling prospects in the 2023 class: Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks. Both are advanced defenders, which raises the floor and ceiling of any prospect. Defense gets rookies on the floor quickly, and it means that they don’t have to reach the highest heights offensively to hit a high-upside outcome. Walker and Hendricks also project to undergo significant development offensively, which will make playoff starter impact very attainable, and possibly more than that. 

Jarace Walker is an advanced processor of the game on both ends of the floor, and he will immediately contribute as a connector. I also believe that he is going to shoot, as he has dramatically improved his mechanics from high school to college. This mechanical improvement, combined with his processing speed, indicates that Jarace has the neuroplasticity required for outlier skill development. Thus, self-creation is not out of the question for Jarace. 

Hendricks is a more typical offensive development bet. He is a good athlete who can already shoot it off the catch, and he looks more polished than Jarace at hitting tough looks in the midrange at this stage. The drawback with him is the handle and playmaking ability. What’s encouraging is that guys with Hendricks’ size, defensive ability, athleticism, and scoring ability often improve as playmakers as their careers progress. The degree of improvement in these areas will dictate how good Hendricks can become. 

Personally, I prefer Jarace as a development bet, as I think he is in a better position to contribute immediately, but both are great. Take your pick. 

The other G-League Ignite guys are extremely underrated

As I am writing, Leonard Miller is ranked 19th on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board, and Sidy Cissoko is ranked 31st. That is too low. As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. By the way, that should be another point of emphasis: always look for “raw” prospects who are highly productive against good competition. These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

Cissoko, as I mentioned earlier in this article, is a quietly complete wing prospect. In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent. I have Cissoko in my late lottery, and as I type this out, I am wondering if even that might be too low. In any case, Cissoko is someone teams should be targeting with a mid-late first. If he slips into the second round, that would be a massive oversight. 

Non-primary initiator guard prospects who do not project to play NBA-level defense should be outside your lottery. 

Go back however far, and the ideal redraft of any given class usually looks like this: 

• Primary offensive initiators OR 2nd/3rd offensive options who provide defensive value (often the players we consider stars)
• Starters with two-way ability OR DPOY level defenders without much of an offensive game (guys who usually round out championship-quality lineups)
• Everyone else

Of course, there are some cases where that structure doesn’t perfectly capture how a draft should have gone. But, the point still stands. Usually, the players who return lottery value contribute defensively in some way. At the very least, they don’t detract on that end. Thinking about player impact through a plus/minus framework, this makes sense. A -2 on defense has to do a lot on offense (basically be a primary offensive initiator) to be a high-impact player. If you project that a prospect will be a neutral defender, that is almost guaranteed to be a better proposition than an at best secondary creator guard who does not defend. Secondary creators usually top out as roughly +2-3 offensive players in impact metrics. This implies that bad defending virtually negates their impact. 

Using examples makes this idea clearer. There are notably few guards of this ilk who have been a part of deep playoff runs. Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro are the two that jump to mind who were in rotations that made it to the championship. But, both these players’ utility wanes in the playoffs. Poole went from 30 minutes per game in the 2021-22 regular season to 27.5 in the postseason. That’s not a huge dropoff, but it’s worth noting that Poole played only 20, 14, and 17 minutes respectively in the last three games of the Finals. The Warriors won all three of those games to close out the series. Additionally, Herro’s secondary creation has not proven necessary for the Heat’s success. He has missed all but one game of the Heat’s run to the finals this year. 

The problems with this archetype don’t stop on the court. Despite their negligible impact, these players command a lot of money. Jordan Poole is owed $128 million over the next four years, and Herro is owed $120 million over the same time interval. So, at best you’re getting a player of negligible impact who you have to turn around and pay a boatload of money for. The only way these players can provide value is through a trade, likely during their rookie contract. That can be quite useful, but I would not draft a player for the sole purpose of their hypothetical trade value. 

So, who is being mocked in the lottery that might fall into this category? Nick Smith is the main one for me. Defensively, he has a bit of a motor, but I really worry about his frame and technique on that end. His footwork often gets messed up, and his skinny frame likely prevents him from making a huge impact. There is a physical tools threshold for impactful defense which Smith does not project to hit. For instance, I liked Blake Wesley’s effort on defense a lot last year, but that effort hasn’t translated up a level. Bones Hyland graded out as one of the worst defenders in the league last season despite being a pest at VCU. To make matters worse, I liked Hyland and Wesley significantly more as defenders in college. 

Another guy that I’ve steadily soured on throughout the cycle is Keyonte George. I was really high on him at the start of the season, and I still see a high upside scorer if everything comes together. But, I don’t think I properly considered the low end or even median outcomes for Keyonte, which look worryingly like this archetype. Again, I see the upside vision a lot more with Keyonte than I do with Nick Smith, so I wouldn’t hate it if a team picked him in the late lottery or mid-first. 

3&D Guards Matter

I wrote earlier in this article about 6’6+ players populating successful NBA teams, but 3&D guards have been crucial in these playoffs as well. Last offseason, Denver acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, and it completely transformed their defense. Gabe Vincent impresses me more and more every time I watch him. Marcus Smart has been perhaps the most prevalent 3&D guard in the last few years; he continues to be an integral part of the Celtics’ playoff runs. Smart’s teammate Derrick White, DeAnthony Melton, and Quentin Grimes are several others who’ve also contributed at a high level as 3&D guards. I’m sure important players are missing from that list, but the point is that these players can be difference makers down the stretch of the season. To loop in the last section, I’d rather have a great 3&D guard than a meh secondary creator/poor defending guard. 

Cason Wallace and Kobe Bufkin are two candidates for 3&D guards who also have some upside to exceed that archetype (especially Wallace). Both are in my lottery. Brandin Podziemski is a highly skilled guard who projects to contribute to playoff rotations. The concern here is Podz’s athleticism and what that means for his defensive projection. However, I am betting on his brain. I just think he is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to meaningfully contribute one way or another. 

Marcus Sasser is another player who is going to provide shooting and dogged defense as an off-ball guard. I think he has enough ball handling and playmaking chops that he can provide some second unit ball handling as well. The aforementioned Gabe Vincent might not be a bad reference point for Sasser. 

If you wanted to swing for a potential 3&D guard in the late 2nd/UDFA. UCLA’s Jaylen Clark and Wichita St guard Craig Porter Jr would be good names to target. Clark is an elite perimeter defender who is a jump shot away from being a perfect 3&D guard. I wish I felt better about him developing that shot though. Clark is also in the middle of rehabbing a torn Achilles, which makes his projection even fuzzier. But, I still like him as a top 45 guy, as his “if he shoots” outcome will return top 30 value from this class. Porter Jr is a stock machine (career 4.7 BLK% as a 6’2 guard!) who could absolutely hold his own as a table setting point guard at the next level. The issue is his lack of touch might prevent him from seeing the floor in the NBA. 68.5% from the line this past season is very worrying for a point guard prospect. However, if you can get Craig Porter Jr in UDFA, you make that bet every time. If he shoots, he can be an impactful NBA player. 

Penn State’s Jalen Pickett seems underrated as well. He’s a great three-level unassisted shotmaker, 11.2 assist per 100 to only 3.9 turnovers, and he has the tools to at least passably guard smalls on the perimeter. He deserves to be drafted. Another guy I like in UDFA is D’Moi Hodge from Missouri. He turns 25 in December, so if he’s going to make an impact in the NBA, he needs to do so quickly. But, it’s hard to argue with 40 percent from three on high volume, 5.1 steals per 100, and only 1.5 turnovers per 100 as a starting point. 

Some Quick Hitters: 

Drafting GG Jackson would be using a 2023 pick on a guy who likely won’t contribute until at least 2025

I am generally wary of drafting raw and unproductive guys whose high-end outcomes likely won’t give you a star, especially in the first round. It’s why I was lower on Ziaire Williams in 2021, and he had considerably more tangible skill than GG Jackson does. I get the age + height + isolation scoring argument for Jackson. But, he isn’t close to being a positive contributor at this stage. That sort of bet is just not my cup of tea. He could very well end up being a decent player, but I would rather use a mid-late first on someone who is closer to contributing now (or trade that pick for future assets) than draft GG. 

Jalen Hood-Schifino scares me 

Johnny Davis PTSD is really affecting me here. Offensively, JHS reminds me of Davis in a lot of ways. He is a midrange specialist on offense, he’s very inefficient, and he can’t generate enough rim pressure for a NBA primary ball handler. On top of that, JHS isn’t in the same stratosphere as prospect Johnny Davis defensively. A 0.7 BPM does not ease concerns either. I get the idea of JHS as a prospect, but the reality is that he just is not that great right now. He has to become an otherworldly tough shot maker to turn into a valuable player. That is not a bet I’d be inclined to make. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round

I tend to fade traditional centers on my board, as such players can usually be acquired for cheap in free agency, if desired. However, if a high-feel and/or coverage versatile big man is available in the second round, take them. Last year, Jaylin Williams was my high-feel and coverage versatile big of choice. I was also high on Xavier Tillman in 2021 for the same reasons. He’s still probably my favorite big of this type I have evaluated. Trayce Jackson-Davis is that big for me this year. Both Williams and Tillman were drafted in the 30s. If Jackson-Davis is available in that range, he’d be a great pick. 

You could do a lot worse than targeting proven wing shooters in the late 2nd/UDFA

There are plenty of prospects who will be available in the late 2nd/UDFA who profile as old, one-dimensional shooters. We often push these guys down the board, but look at the undrafted guys contributing for Miami right now. They can shoot the cover off the ball. Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin in particular fit this exact profile in college. Sam Hauser (Go Hoos!) is another recent successful UDFA in this mold. In this draft, it would not surprise me if Seth Lundy or Hunter Tyson stuck around in the NBA. Both are older prospects who are primarily shooters on offense. But, they take care of the ball well enough to suggest that they can hang in an NBA offense. Lundy and Tyson would be my picks for wing shooters in UDFA. He’s more of a guard/wing combo, but D’Moi Hodge could qualify here as well.

Putting It All Together

To close, I want to make a simple list of which players I would target in each range of the draft using the ideas I have put forth in this article. 

• Pick 1: Wemby
• Picks 2-4: Scoot if available; Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker if not. Trading down if Scoot is unavailable could also be an enticing proposition. 
• Picks 5-9: Whitmore or Jarace if available. Taylor Hendricks next preference. If those three are gone, Cason Wallace and Gradey Dick are next up. 
• Picks 10-14: Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, or Gradey Dick if available. If not, this is Leonard Miller territory. 
• Picks 15-30: Leonard Miller if available. Sidy Cissoko, Kobe Bufkin, or Jett Howard next. If the G-League and Michigan guys are unavailable, Colby Jones, Brandin Podziemski, Marcus Sasser, and Jaime Jaquez Jr are my preferences, in that order. 
• Picks 31-45: Sidy Cissoko if available. The above list of preferences for picks 15-30 carries over. Trayce Jackson-Davis is in play here too. I didn’t discuss them, but Maxwell Lewis, Noah Clowney, and Julian Phillips are worthy “raw prospect” gambles here too, should any of them be available. Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, or Ben Sheppard would be good gets in this range as well. 
• Picks 46-60: Everything above carries over here. Slawson, Brown, or Sheppard would be my preference. Beyond them, Jaylen Clark, Seth Lundy, Hunter Tyson, Jalen Pickett, Craig Porter Jr, Toumani Camara, and Jordan Miller are all worthy of consideration. 
• UDFA: Ditto picks 46-60. Plus, D’Moi Hodge, Anton Watson, and Justyn Mutts would be priority signings for my summer league team. They are excellent Exhibit-10 candidates. If you’re looking for a big, Chattanooga’s Jake Stephens put up an absurd 39.7 points, 17.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 4 blocks, and 5.1 turnovers per 100 on 67 percent true shooting. He also shot 40 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, in addition to an 82 FT%. UConn’s Adama Sanogo is another coverage versatile guy with excellent touch around the rim. I wouldn’t necessarily target him over the wing bets I mentioned in the 2nd. But, if he goes undrafted, Sanogo is someone I’d look to bring in. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So, that is my 2023 draft strategy. I hope this paints a clear picture of my convictions in this class and the principles which informed them. Increasingly, NBA basketball is a game for functionally athletic, smart individuals who bring tangible skill on both ends of the floor. Such players can be found in every range of the draft, and every player I positively discussed in this piece is someone I believe can satisfy these requirements.

The post One-Size Fits All Draft Strategy appeared first on Swish Theory.

For this, second piece, I’m looking at “Green Flags Only” prospects, freshmen and sophomore NCAA players who exceeded various statistical minimums and did not see the same kind of linear production decline against the best teams.

With no glaring statistical weaknesses, these prospects do Everything, Everywhere regardless of who they’re playing and at any given moment. The questions we’ll be looking to answer this time are, primarily:

1. Do they have an extra gear to show the special?
2. Will their game translate in the same way against NBA competition?

They were able to produce all over and consistently, but how big are those margins, and where might they dominate? Do they have star potential or just consistency? Do they even have that? The answers varied widely:

Jarace Walker (Houston, 7.7 BPM)

Jarace is a tricky evaluation given the contrasts of the obvious with the dubious. Let’s start there:

• The obvious
  • Jarace is an elite passer
  • Jarace is elite at reading an offense
  • Jarace has elite positioning
  • Jarace can dribble and shoot better than most at his position
• The dubious
  • Jarace can’t get to the rim consistently
  • Jarace doesn’t have much burst
  • Jarace takes a while to leap

The latter qualities were masked by his fantastic athletic testing in a controlled setting, with one of the best verticals at the Combine. But the implementation of that in-game is a question of degree that requires close film watching. Let’s dig in.

Jarace is one of the best processors of what is happening on the court in this class, and, with size, strength and some dribble / pass / shoot skill, is an obvious and safe bet to be positive on an NBA floor.

The obvious is, in fact, so obvious it can be easy to underestimate. At any given point, Jarace makes crosscourt reads look simple, is able to rotate into advantageous spot ahead of NCAA competition, and whips passes to open shooters at the perfect time. He knows how to use eye manipulation to create openings, and understands when the opponent is about to over-rotate.

I have no issue projecting Jarace’s strengths conveying at the next level. At 6’6.5’’ with a 7’2.5’’ wingspan, 97^th percentile standing vert, 83^rd percentile lane agility and 78^th percentile sprint scores at the combine, Walker certainly has the athletic build to capitalize on them.

His statistical profile was elite, particularly his combination of 12% assist rate, 6.2% block rate, 2.2% steal rate and 38% shooting on 138 midrange attempts, the majority of which were unassisted. Being able to hit difficult shots while also reading the floor at a high level on both ends is a good formula for success. Bobby Portis at Arkansas is the only comparable freshman for that combination of stats (if you relax the criteria, Jabari Parker, Terrence Jones, Demarcus Cousins and Mo Harkless appear), another toolsy, scheme-versatile big wing/small big but not the level of passer as Jarace.

So, Jarace’s floor is safe – how about his ceiling?

That is where the dubious comes in. The combination of lack of elite burst and longer leaping load time have lead to overreliance on his floater and pull-up, and, for an otherwise highly crafty player, a surprising lack thereof on drives. Without an initial edge even in NCAA against mediocre competition on drives, Jarace is often forced to bail out early, limiting the utility of his passing as well.

The most damning indicator is his mere 0.24 rate of free throws to shot attempts: this would be the worst mark among that comp set I listed above, with Mo Harkless as closest at 0.33 and Demarcus Cousins at the peak of 0.73.

While we’re being greedy, that lack of burst limits what could have been a DPOY-degree of upside on defense. Jarace is always aware of long rotations he could make, but not always capable of making them physically. He is always first to spot a development, contributing to elite stock rates regardless, but could have been a true monster with a more rapid first step and a bit more agility.

Where we are left is an obviously great connector prospect who also has shotmaking and primary distributor upside, in addition to some rim protection ability. That is an extremely safe bet in the top 10. If he is able to become a little bit quicker and a little more mobile, he could easily clear top 5 value.

Jordan Hawkins (UConn, 7.4 BPM)

The proof of Jordan Hawkins being NBA-ready also hits you over the head: he was the best player on a national championship team where he filled his role admirably. That role also slots easily into any team, being off-ball centric, as scalable as you want.

The primary selling point for Hawkins is the shot, particularly off of movement. Off the catch he took 222 threes and made 91 of them (41%). His 7.6 points per game shooting off the catch was top 20 in the country, and the primary kill shot for the nation’s best team. Hawkins flew around screens and reorganized in an instant, always committing to his follow through.

That shot will translate to the next level, as will Hawkins’ general approach to the game. He plays very hard, more physical than you’d expect for what is often a more cosmetic archetype. The issue is he is small, listed at 6’5’’ but often unable to deter shots from even smaller wings. He gets in the right position but it often does not matter, begging questions of whether he would be targeted in high stakes NBA circumstances.

He also has little star path outside of his shotmaking. The handle is not good for a guard, though he is savvy enough to limit those occasions to when necessary. This brings me to my favorite part of Hawkins’ game: he is not afraid to attack whatever space the opponent gives him, whether it’s into a midrange pullup or all the way to the basket. The tools to get there or finish when he arrives are not fantastic, but his shooting gravity is enough that the lanes should be wide.

I would love to consider Hawkins a top 20 prospect simply by how he plays the game and how reliable it is to be useful to an NBA team, and even good ones. Off-ball scoring at his level without obvious vulnerabilities makes him a fit with all 30 NBA teams. But when searching for star ceilings, I am less compelled to see it in Hawkins unless he reaches a comfort level with the handle to seek out more midrange opportunities. It’s possible, but not my favorite bet considering a loaded top 20.

Cason Wallace (Kentucky, 7.0 BPM)

No player has a wider gap between value on the court and scarcity of skillset than Cason. The value proposition is strong: he can defend any guard or small wing, sniffing out actions and making as consistent an impact as any guard in the class; he can provide some offensive value all over, whether passing, midrange floaters, screensetting, catch and shoot. But when it comes to grasping for rarity, I struggle to see as immediate of star scarcity as others in the lottery.

Let’s take a step back. Cason Wallace is a very, very good basketball player. It is rare to have a guard connector prospect of his ability in a class. He is as sound as you’ll find as far as hand placement and positioning, surely obnoxious to be guarded by. He is more didactic on offense, a table setter with some athletic and dribble pass shoot skills to rely on.

I am sure Wallace will be a good NBA player. The question we are here to ask, uncomfortable but necessary near the top, is how rare his qualities are.

The rarest aspect of his game is simply its combination of factors, and why he is a clear top 20 prospect in my mind. But the dominant factors may be lacking when benchmarking against odds of being a top 2 player on a title team. It’s a high bar, but one we have to focus on.

There are many avenues for Cason to reach that, all of which are debatable in likelihood:

• Ride the floater to primary or secondary scoring
• Continue to progress as an offensive conductor
• Add additional finishing craft to broaden scoring opportunities
• Be that good of a shutdown defender

I struggle, however, to see any of these avenues as likely in their own right, even if surely will progress at least somewhat. With the recent offensive explosion where 110 offensive ratings are pedestrian, I struggle to see where Cason stands out (again, relative to star upside). His handle and creativity attacking the rim are fairly straightforward, indicated by his 0.22 free throw to field goal attempt rate and only 24% of attempts coming at the rim.

Wallace’s stats exceed dominant thresholds for connector equity: 2.0 assist to turnover ratio, 24% assist rate, 3.7% steal rate and 54% true shooting is a pristine resume for a high major freshman (Dennis Smith Jr., Wade Baldwin, Jrue Holiday and Shabazz Napier are only ones in vicinity) but I want to find the easy. Cason is highly likely to make everything a bit harder for his opponent, but I struggle to see the dominant.

You know what, as I write this and review the clips…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’ve asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.

Gradey Dick (Kansas, 6.5 BPM)

My quick and easy pitch for Gradey is this: he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst. But we can begin with the shot.

Gradey has all the hallmarks of what I look for in a sharpshooter: smooth and consistent release; high peak and quickly; hunts for it off movement; seems to enjoy shooting it. He is a very tough cover, able at 6’6.25’’ and 6’8.75’’ wingspan to shoot it over opponent off the move, especially with his quirky shot. He sets it through his gather at about the release height, so when he begins the second motion it’s quick and effortless. Think Klay Thompson’s but with less dip and a bit more mechanical.

The handle is the obvious swing skill. Dick is quite coordinated at his size, also evidenced by his active choreography on Tik Tok, able to take advantage of his shooting gravity but ducking through tight closeouts and resetting into his shot. For that reason I have quite high hopes in him as a midrange pull-up threat, simply too good of a shooter and too nimble on his feet to not be. The handle is simple but functional, with reason to think more reps will mean more progress (simply waiting for the ball was enough to fill it up at Kansas as the primary shooting threat on the team).

On defense, he uses his length exceptionally well and, more importantly, is very obviously always seeking out a way to have an impact. When he swats to block shots it’s ferociously, when he sees a loose ball he dives, and he has the coordination to maximize his length where you wouldn’t expect.

Gradey Dick, to me, is a very safe top 10 pick. Shooting is shooting, is shooting, and Gradey is as confident as I can get in a 40%+ high volume spot up threat. To then have confidence in some defense, some handle, lots of effort on top of that? In my opinion, there is a good case for him as early as #5.

Anthony Black (Arkansas, 5.9)

Ant is an obvious candidate to stick in the league as a physical connector. As Arkansas’ driving force (especially when Nick Smith Jr. was out) – the team was +22 net rating with Ant on compared to +9 with him off – Black put up stats similar to Bruce Brown as a freshman at Florida:

Anthony Black / Bruce Brown

• 22% / 22% USG
• 55% / 56% TS
• 21% / 21% AST
• 1.3 / 1.6 A:TO
• 3.4 / 2.9 STL%
• 1.9 / 1.9 BLK%
• 93-148 (63%) / 90-144 (63%) at rim
• 32% / 21% midrange
• 71% / 74% FT%
• 30% / 35% 3P%
• 58 / 41 FTAR

A more physically daunting Bruce Brown is about as close of a comparison as I can get in this class, a player constantly on the swerve and able to exert themselves no matter the task. Not only are they toolsy, but take pride in being so. Black can be seen throwing his body against whatever opponent is nearest, never turning down an opportunity to set a flare screen or tag a roller: Ant is a gamer.

It’s not all perfect, and, much like Bruce Brown, it may be worth asking what the star upside is even as appreciating all that makes them such useful players. Ant has many routes to the rim, excellent at alternating footwork to parry past second line defenders. But he often struggles to get past that first one, shiftier than he is bursty and more functional in handle than magician.

The shot isn’t great, as a possession ending in an Ant Black three is unlikely to be good offense in the NBA, but Ant’s ability to stay on a swivel will give him opportunities to connect. His adherence to right-playism means if he’s open he’ll be taking the ball to the basket, if others are open he’ll be slinging it as soon as he can, if there’s a wide to keep the play going in your favor, he’ll sniff it out.

The offense could be a struggle in the wrong system, one that either tries to let him beat his man off the dribble bringing the ball up or doesn’t allow him to move throughout the half court. But I love betting on reaction time x size x skill, as Ant will have endless opportunities to make a difference. He’ll find his way on the floor, but may need to strike the right conditions to truly become a star.

Kobe Bufkin (Michigan, 5.8 BPM)

Of anyone on this list, Bufkin feels like could belong on the Whiteboard prospect list. His dynamic trait is his driving ability, with long stride lengths and finishing craft. He is particularly adept at finishing from oblique angles while extending past his defender, shooting past and pushing or finger rolling the ball to land gently above the rim. That is an NBA level skill.

I would feel much better about that selling point if it were paired with a complete game as Bufkin’s presence on this list suggests. He’s close, an adept connective passer and generally active across the court. But his lack of any physical presence on the interior presents an obvious point of weakness that could be a risk in high leverage matchups.

Bufkin only weighs 187 pounds, unable to hold space with a lanky frame or catch up after being screened. That makes the sell tougher for a combo guard who can likely only guard true point guards. But Bufkin is still a three level scoring threat, efficient on solid volume everywhere, and perhaps just good enough of a shooter and passer to be that difficult to cover.

Players with the ability to score from three, midrange pull-ups or drives to the rim are always coveted. It may also be possible for Bufkin to add the strength needed to not be targeted by an offense, or use his anticipatory abilities to compensate. I currently have Bufkin slated as a mid-to-late first prospect, though perhaps is the last on my board with true top 3 potential for a good team if things break the right way.

Jett Howard (Michigan, 4.3)

Jett, coach Juwan’s son, made a ton of threes this season. At 14 per 100 possessions, Howard made 37% and self-created one of every four. Funnily enough, watching the tape you could imagine those numbers rising even higher.

Howard is unbelievably comfortable getting into his shot no matter the context. Although not without flaws – we’ll get into those later – he has the exact type of athleticism where he can rebalance into his pocket in an instant no matter from what position. His form is about ideal, following through consistently and dedicated about his footwork.

Adding on to his flamethrower decal, Jett is also an exceptional passer with good handle. He is both accurate and decisive, limited only by his negative first step where his handle is often dedicated to buying time more than taking space.

This all adds up to a dynamo of an offensive player who will be difficult to keep from scoring, regardless of role. He is shy attacking the basket with a narrow frame, but touch is feathery enough that even a 15-foot floater feels like an acceptable shot.

Now, the defense. Jett is the most significant difference between offense and defense of all prospects i’ve covered so far, as limited in physicality he can provide as well as prone to fall asleep or be a step slow getting around screens.

What’s extremely encouraging, and helped me gain comfort with him as a lotto pick is he did show signs of wanting to use his full wing size. His blocks improved from nonexistent to occasional, making up for the small guard count of rebounds. He was also playing on sprained ankles most of the season, looking more present of a presence in his high school years.

I can’t wait to watch Jett Howard in the NBA. His shot would be my favorite in the class if Gradey Dick wasn’t in it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up its best shooter, or even its best scorer (outside of Wemby). The shooting will stick fast, I just hope the defense is good enough to keep him stuck in.

Amari Bailey (UCLA, 3.9 BPM)

Amari earns the final spot here due to his ability to pop up all over the court, with good defense (2.5% steal rate and 1.4% block rate with few fouls) and adequate passing (15% assist rate, 0.9), rebounding (13% defensive rate, 4% offensive). While he only averaged 11 points per game, he was able to score at the rim (77-118), midrange (37-101) and three (21-54) over 30 games.

Positionally, Amari is a clear combo guard, with defensive ground coverage his calling card. Bailey’s stance is ideal, and as always active is able to pivot from distance to distance in an instant. At only 6’3.25’’ with a 6’7’’ wingspan, there will be big guard/small wing assignments Bailey can’t handle, as opponent could still often shoot over him at the NCAA level. But he will be an exceptional glue guy.

I struggle to see Bailey as worth a pick in the first half of the first round, but could provide a versatile skillset to a competitive team towards the end of the first. The swing skill is the pull-up, looking fluid here and there as Bailey is quite fluid of an athlete overall. The mechanics are fine but inconsistent, as seen in his merely decent percentages. He has starter potential, as I buy him finding time with his activity and really embodying the essence of this category.

The post The 2023 NBA Draft’s “Everything Everywhere” Prospects appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Metrics

Todd Whitehead (@crumpledjumper on Twitter) and the people of Synergy Sports recently created a Synergy Shot Quality metric, measuring the quality of each and every shot. Through various components explained below, shots are compiled into a single score, ranging from high (>80th %tile of shot quality) to low (<20th %tile of shot quality). Swish Theory’s Tyler recently used this metric for a piece on shotmaking prospects Brandon Miller and Jett Howard, for example.

Along with the metric, Synergy has labeled each player with an offensive archetype that best resembles their playstyle/role, analyzing their usages and tendencies to develop 3 primarily roles: Ball Handlers, Wings, and Bigs, including sub-archetypes within each role. 

The Data

Coming back to the original topic of difficult shot-making, I wanted to see how college players in Swish Theory’s Top 40 Prospects stacked up in their frequency of low quality shots and the efficiency of these shots. The x-axis measures the share of each player’s field goal attempts categorized by Synergy as low quality looks, while the y-axis displays how well each player shot on those attempts.

The further to the right on this graph, the greater share of difficult attempts; the further up near the top, the better the shotmaking.

I divided the results by archetype as well to best compare each player relative to their own role. To add the finishing touch, I included multiple historical examples to see how some of the NBA’s best match up. 

The number one standout in this study is Jalen Hood-Schifino, terrorizing drop coverages with his mid-range prowess (sad Purdue noises) with the highest share of shots being difficult. While Nate Oats preaches the paint-and-three approach more than maybe any other coach, seeing Brandon Miller in the lower left corner is slightly concerning for hopes as a late shot-clock creator. Nick Smith Jr. had a messy freshman campaign battling injuries and consistent playing time, but his main sell circling around his tough shot-making spells some concerns as he lands at the bottom of this graph (albeit on limited volume compared to others).

If you look up a bit higher you can see ol’ Jalen Brunson hanging around on an island. His upper echelon functional strength, change of pace, and sweet footwork worked wonders in the trenches, and his outlier shot-making was one of the key indicators of his future success. 

Jarace Walker did not have an easy shot diet, especially for an athletic/defensive inclined big wing, but maintaining respectable efficiency in spite of that provides some hope of a higher-end offensive outcome. Brice Sensabaugh was made for this graph, and his elite in-between and pull-up game scorched the Big Ten. Mikal Bridges is an interesting case study, as he was rarely tasked with difficult shots in college, but showcased elite efficiency that has shown to pay dividends for his self-creation jump.

As we move to bigs, we see a massive increase in the quality of looks these bigs are getting, as the high-percentile shots right at the rim occur at a sizably higher rate than their counterparts. No surprise to see the rim-running Dereck Lively and Adem Bona slotted in the top left corner, with a combined mere 13 low-quality shot attempts between the two. Domantas Sabonis is the biggest outlier of any NBA player I’ve looked at, the soft touch + bruising strength steamrolled over the poor WCC. Taylor Hendricks and DaRon Holmes II are the only two bigs in this class with over 10% of their looks being difficult shots and above average efficiency with those shots, though one can be certain Victor Wembanyama would break this graph entirely.

Conclusion

While more research needs to be done to truly make an assessment whether these low quality metrics can stand as a predictor for self-creation/difficult shot-making, there is value in locating those flashes of outperformance. Whether it be in volume or efficiency, taking shots late in the shot-clock, off the dribble, in isolation or contested with some degree of success is a bright green flag for future NBA contributions.

It is worth a reminder that these are small samples by their nature, and may say as much about a prospect’s context as their performance. As well, taking a more difficult shot diet is neither a good or bad thing, but a means of the talent of a player and the needs of a team.

At the end of the day, you can look at these stats as glass half-empty or half-full: a player takes too many bad shots or it shows promise of higher usage at the next level. Or, a third option: lean into your inner hooper, shatter the glass on the floor, make some popcorn, and delight yourself to a BallDontStop highlight mix. Something we should all do a bit more.

The post The Pure Hooper Index appeared first on Swish Theory.

Of all the position groups in the loaded 2023 Draft, the quality and depth of toolsy wings with promising secondary skills has a case for the strongest. Looking for a world-class athlete with wing stopper upside and improving perimeter skill? Ausar Thompson is your guy. Want an even better wing athlete who intuitively approaches problems on both ends like a 5’9” point guard? His twin brother Amen fits the bill. Maybe you’re searching for a combo forward who can offer similar secondary rim protection and driving upside as the Thompsons, with added bulk to handle interior duties? Jarace Walker is perfect. And if you just want to bet on a young prospect with an outlier skill and projectable frame, Dillon Mitchell and Anthony Black offer outlines of exciting (though murky) star outcomes.

But between all of these players, one constant remains: none of them can shoot! There are certainly different degrees of bad shooters among this group, but none of them project to reach the level of shooting consistency necessary to draw hard closeouts. “If they shoot, they’ll be a steal!” is a common trope in draft coverage, and it’s easy to understand why — statements like this aren’t staking out much ground when applied to super-athletes tasked with filling out the only glaring hole in their games. Yes, Amen Thompson will be good if he shoots 35%+ from 3 on volume! Instead, “What if they don’t shoot?” is a much more nuanced and worthwhile question, and one that often goes unexplored.

The term “Non-shooting wing” just doesn’t sound right; shooting is central to the concept of the idealized offball wing. All the offensive responsibilities that are expected of offball wings today are either directly or indirectly impacted by their shooting: 

A) maintaining space for creators via shooting gravity, 

B) attacking advantages off the catch (often closeouts, which must be drawn in the first place, back to point A), and 

C) finishing advantages — often by shooting a jumpshot.

This is no doubt an oversimplification of role, and category B on its own contains a host of different microskills and play types that suit wildly different kinds of players. Still, it bears repeating that a lack of shooting gravity on the wing completely undermines the integrity of the catch-22 that modern drive-and-kick offense is designed to create.  So, how valuable is a player who bucks their own system? Is it worth the effort to fit a player who will always be a square peg into what will always be a round hole?

In these terms, non-shooting wings seem so fundamentally counter-intuitive that they can’t possibly be net positive offensive players in the NBA. And yet…over the course of NBA history, plenty have made it work! Though it certainly takes a special combination of ancillary offensive skills and defensive prowess, there’s a handful of players who’ve succeeded in this role – often similar only in key weakness, but wildly different in archetype.

So what can we take away from this special batch of outliers? That’s what this series is all about: detailing the development path, usage, and unique skills of the non-shooting wings who were able to carve out a career in the NBA, then applying that knowledge to the wings of the 2023 Draft.

*A quick disclaimer:  the term “non-shooting” doesn’t leave much wiggle room, but for our purposes let’s define it as a player who isn’t a good enough shooter to draw a closeout in an NBA playoff setting. Some players we’ll cover won’t even come close to this threshold, while others will straddle it at points throughout their careers. I want to emphasize that we aren’t looking for 1:1 direct player comps to apply to the ‘23 wings; instead, I’ll aim to learn more about the different historical precedents to success as a NSW, and become familiar with the different tools and counters that these players use in order to stick in the league.

Introducing Boris

Boris Diaw’s career trajectory from lanky jumbo ball handler to stout connective big is one of the forgotten gems of recent development history. Billed as a shooting guard entering the 2003 Draft, his intersection of passing guile and positional versatility at 6’8”(7’3” wingspan!) drove his appeal as a 1st round prospect. He spent his formative years at 1st division French club Élan Béarnais, where he played an understandably modest role as a secondary creator. Even as a relatively low usage player, Diaw (#12/#13) flashed the impressive processing speed and ball skills that would go on to define his NBA career. 

Although he would later garner a reputation as a limited athlete, Diaw’s leaner frame as a teenager made for some uncharacteristically loud athletic highlights. To those who are only familiar with him from his days in San Antonio, this nimble version Boris would be virtually unrecognizable. Still, it was clear from his pre-NBA tape that he didn’t possess the burst or handle to carry significant NBA creation burden as a guard. Most of his flashes of passing brilliance came when Diaw was operating off of an advantage, rather than getting downhill to generate one himself. Without these invaluable self-created paint touches, teams must find a different way to scheme players like Diaw into opportunities to facilitate against a tilted defense; this is then compounded by not being able to shoot well enough to draw hard closeouts. This problem would later become one of the driving conflicts of Diaw’s career.   

After the Hawks selected Diaw 21st overall in the 2003 Draft, he struggled to get his career off the ground. Atlanta tried to use Diaw as an offball wing, used occasionally as a screener but rarely given ball handling or passing opportunities (11.4% and 15.5% USG in his 2 seasons as a Hawk). When non-shooting wings are haphazardly thrown in the corner, they siphon space away from the offense with their lack of gravity — this was the case with Diaw.  He was treated like any other wing, cast aside as an afterthought and expected to mold around the Hawks’ established creators in Steven Jackson and Jason Terry. 

This is a recipe for disaster when developing a player like Boris; prospects with unique flaws (15/76 from 3 as a Hawk) must be deployed intentionally with counter-measures that address their key weaknesses. Sticking Boris in the corner as a non-threat from 3 was never going to work out in Atlanta. To make non-shooting wings like Diaw work, you must find creative ways to utilize them within the flow of the offense in ways that hide their lack of shooting gravity, even on plays where they never touch the ball. This would go on to be one of the central themes of Diaw’s career arc. 

Even with limited opportunities, Diaw (#32/#13) continued to flash his upside as a connective passer, especially when dicing up a bent defense: 

After a rocky first 2 years in the league, Boris looked to be on a trajectory out of the NBA if something didn’t change quickly. But while the Hawks were struggling to provide a suitable developmental infrastructure for Diaw, the Phoenix Suns were revolutionizing basketball on the other side of the country.

Suns Tenure + Counters for Lack of Shooting Gravity

Diaw was traded to the Suns after his 2nd year in the league, and entered a cookie-cutter context for his set of skills. With Amar’e Stoudemire’s knee injury keeping him out of almost the entire 2005-06 season, the Suns had a gaping hole at power forward. The 6’8” Diaw, exclusively a perimeter player up to this point in his career, made an ambitious move to the 4 which opened up new paths for success and gave his development arc new life. 

It’s important to remember that the duties of a power forward in 2005 are very different from the duties of a power forward in today’s game. In 2022, length, ground coverage and shooting range are no longer valuable add-ons at the position, but requirements. Gone are the days of bumbling 6’8” bruisers camping out in the dunkers spot (many 4s today are just taller wings!). In fact, If Diaw was a prospect in 2022, he likely would’ve been tagged as a power forward from the start. But in 2005, a player who had only averaged 5 rebounds/36 the season prior moving to power forward was seen as staunchly avant-garde.  

So how did Diaw make it work?

 Let’s revisit the questions posed earlier in the section: How can you hide a poor shooter most effectively while also leveraging their passing acumen? What are the other ways to manufacture some form of gravity for a non-shooter, other than simply giving them the ball and letting them drive 20x a game? Mike D’Antoni proposed a solution: Using Diaw as a high-volume screener, DHO operator, and touch passer.

At this junction in NBA history, Diaw was considered extremely lean for a power forward at 6’8”/215 lbs. He was a relatively poor screen setter and rebounder – his development as a perimeter-oriented player never put emphasis on improving these skills. His lack of vertical athleticism held him back as a roller, a stark contrast to Amar’e’s dynamism as a lob threat the year prior. 

But the Suns didn’t have anyone better that season, and utilizing Diaw in this role was a compromise – deal with an athletically-limited primary roller, and reap the benefits of Diaw’s elite connective passing, grab-and-go offense, and secondary creation. Putting Boris in screening actions almost every possession minimized the time he spent in the corner, while also giving him opportunities to leverage his decision making and vision as a DHO operator and roller. Phoenix was throwing Diaw in teams’ faces, daring them to ignore him rolling to the rim the same way they did when he was spotted up in the corner. It was an imperfect solution to his lack of shooting gravity, but one that left Diaw a clear net positive on offense, able to stay on the floor for long stretches in a playoff series. 

Even on possessions where Diaw (#3) didn’t make a flashy kickout or throw a pinpoint lob, simply giving him something to do was enough to keep him from negatively affecting the rest of the offense. While he doesn’t necessarily do anything special on this play, limiting the time Diaw spends sitting in the corner as a non-threat is vital to keeping him a tenable playoff player. These “net neutral” plays are key to making any non-shooting wing work in the half court. 

Even in this particular clip, Diaw’s offensive feel manifests itself in a unique way. After handing the ball off, he initially positions himself as if the shooter intends to come off the screen to the right, before wisely flipping his hips at the last moment to seal off a lane to the left and fool the defender. Boris’ feel as a screen setter was a big asset for him in Phoenix and San Antonio. 

There’s no doubt that Diaw left points on the board as a playfinisher, as his combination of poor vertical pop and timidness as a finisher made for many record scratch moments like this:

However, Boris was able to compensate for his limitations as a finisher with his flawless decision making. Diaw excelled as a short roll playmaker, routinely able to find open shooters from various angles, release points, and spots on the floor:

These reps are a good encapsulation of Diaw’s capabilities as a roller. A more explosive player might be able to finish over the help, but Boris is still able to create efficient shots for his teammates via his passing vision and roll gravity:

This unorthodox archetype of pass-first roller was one of the various parts of Diaw’s game that synergized perfectly with the Suns roster.

7SOL Suns 

The 7 Seconds or Less Suns were perhaps the earliest glimpse of how the game is widely played today; in Diaw’s first season in Phoenix, the Suns led the league in pace, 3s attempted, and 3pt%, all by a wide margin. And while Steve Nash’s off-the-dribble shotmaking and pick-and-roll acumen were the foundations of the Suns offense, their group of rangy and versatile snipers on the wing provided the spacing necessary for Nash to operate. Between Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, and (46 games of) Tim Thomas, the Suns had 3 wings who all provided vastly different functionality on both sides of the court, but one thing was consistent: they could all shoot the cover off the ball. The trio shot above 40% from 3 in 2005-06, and combined to attempt 15.8 3s per 36 minutes in regular season action (more than 28 of the 30 NBA teams had as a whole!). 

The Suns’ level of offensive spacing was unprecedented in the basketball sludge of the early aughts, and it benefitted Diaw greatly. Their style of play was tailor-made for a pass-first roller, as Diaw’s finishing struggles are a much easier pill to swallow when his distribution skills are paired with the best kickout options in the league (Phoenix shot 39.9% from 3 in 2005-06!). The trade-off from a high-flying lob threat to an elite decision making roll man is much more appealing when the latter has 3-4 accurate and willing shooters to find on any given possession. 

Shawn Marion, who was a respectable shooter in his own right (33% on 3 attempts/36, which was good for 76th highest volume in the league back then!), provided a unique dimension as a world-class finisher, closeout attacker, and transition handler. He and Diaw enjoyed a rapport in the two-man game, often even hooking up for lobs off of free throw line (!) PnRs when Nash was off the floor.

Diaw commanded bench units in a variety of contexts, able to win as a driver and PnR handler against defensive lineups that were a bit easier to crack than starting units. The handling and athletic limitations that held him back from a full-time role as a ball handler were less evident in this change-of-pace creator role. His combination of length and coordination was the foundation of his appeal as an advantage creator.

Connective Passing (cont.)

Although Boris wasn’t drawing tremendous backline gravity as a roller, the presence of a large man barreling down the lane is often enough to draw some form defensive rotation, especially once Diaw is fed the ball. He’s often able to use his deep post positioning off of rolls to, once again, leverage his passing instincts against a tilted defense in an unconventional way. This idea is similar to how smaller guards can still hold functional rim pressure as downhill drivers, even if they aren’t a threat to finish over significant contests.

Diaw’s blistering processing speed also held value as a perimeter ballmover – even if Boris drew little to no defensive respect as a popper or kickout receiver, his ability to swing the ball half a beat early allowed him to consistently deliver the advantage to a player better equipped to capitalize on it (once again, synergizing perfectly with the Suns array of shooters):

Diaw fit right in with Phoenix’s pension for early clock shot attempts, as he thrived in the artificial semi-transition environment the Suns loved to create (often pushing off of opponent makes!). Defenders are much more likely to sag or help off of a non-shooter when defending a set offense methodically running their sets – less so when scrambling just to get back to their assigned defensive shell. And the possessions when Diaw was being sagged off of were usually when Phoenix’s initial push up the floor had sputtered out, and the offense had to reset (which was thankfully not too often).

Importance of Functional Big Size

Even before his drastic weight gain, Diaw was able to capably function as a 4 on both ends, largely due to his outlier length (his wingspan is 7 inches longer than his listed height!). Although he wasn’t a dominant finisher or rebounder, his frame allowed him to cover the replacement level big duties that come with playing up in the lineup. These extra 3 or 4 inches of range can be the difference between a position-locked wing and a forward with 4 flexibility, even if their power forward skill set hasn’t been realized quite yet. For bigger 3s who aren’t quite ready to guard and rebound against power forwards, their extra length creates potential for skill dev into roles that smaller wings don’t have access to. 

This Diaw sequence against Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks perfectly illustrates the value of functional length for wings trying to play up in the lineup. In Game 1 of the 2006 Western Conference Finals, Boris put up a career-high of 34 points, including the game winning turnaround baby jumper. A chunk of his 23 2nd half points came on post-ups over the Mavericks’ guards, as coach Avery Johnson continued to switch ball screens even while Diaw feasted on Devin Harris and Jason Terry down low for easy buckets or trips to the free throw line.

Midway through the third quarter, Johnson adjusted by sending an extra defender to the ball once Diaw established position in the post. Diaw immediately countered with an adjustment of his own, riffling cross-court skip passes for open 3s once the help committed to the post-up. Although these 3s didn’t fall, Diaw’s “traditional big gravity” as a post-up player allowed him to leverage his “wing”/perimeter skillset as a passer in a unique way and generate quality looks for his team: 

Diaw’s length also held immense value on the defense end. Although this is fundamentally a piece about non-shooting wings on offense, my point is moot if they can’t stay on the floor on the other end! Diaw’s wingspan helped make up for his vertical deficiencies, allowing him to be a tenable defensive 4 even without the athletic tools one would expect from an NBA big.

Spurs Tenure 

Diaw’s tenure in San Antonio was a departure from his early career role as a wing. As a Spur, he leaned into a role as a stretch 4.5, with emphasis on offball movement, screen setting, low post work, and yes, outside shooting! Diaw gained 35 pounds from his 2005 breakout in Phoenix to his final season as a Spur, and this extra bulk had its fair share of trade offs: improved screen setting and post-up capability, but a marked decrease in his already-modest vertical pop. It’s no secret that Boris is a foodie, and this transition from wing to big was undoubtedly accelerated by Diaw’s joie de vivre off the court; as his career went along, his summers consisted less of intense open runs and more of french pastry crumbs. 

Diaw’s career arc is an interesting case study in how different skills can manifest themselves in different ways with only a shift in body type. The brilliant connective passer from Phoenix was clearly still in there somewhere – only now he was doing his damage out of postups, and accessing advantages/high-leverage decision making opportunities via strength-based creation and shooting gravity, instead of as a short roller and DHO operator. Part of this shift in usage can be chalked up to scheme and era, as the league that Boris entered in 2003 was a far cry from the one he left in 2018. It’s especially telling that while Diaw transitioned from a wing to a big over the course of his career, his skillset evolved in the opposite direction; he wasn’t a threat from behind the arc until his early 30s. His body told him to become a big, and the landscape of the league pushed him towards expanding his range; the result was a shift from non-shooting wing to… shooting non-wing.

The name of this series is “Non shooting wings” – Spurs Diaw was neither of those things. Because of this, we won’t spend too much time discussing the minutiae of his time in San Antonio. Still, this stretch of his career throws a wrinkle into the larger argument of this piece. His career arc begs the obvious question: if the emergence of shooting gravity as a requirement rather than a feature for modern wings forced him to become a threat from 3 in order to extend his career, why should he be propped up as a blueprint for other non-shooting wings to follow, who are entering the same league environment that forced him to adapt? Applying historical examples of a seemingly extinct archetype to current-day prospects seems almost ironic in its shortsightedness. That’s the reason why I didn’t write an entry to this series for the archaic bruiser PFs that frequented the early 2000s. The difference between that archetype and Diaw’s is that we’ve seen Boris make his skillset work in an offense with contemporary principles –  the 7SOL Suns prioritized the pace and spacing that rule the league today. 

While the Suns certainly weren’t as progressive as today’s offenses (their 2005-06 .293 3-point attempt rate would’ve ranked dead last in the NBA last season), it’s significant that a team built on modern values made an exception for a connector like Diaw. What’s also significant is that they clearly utilized him mindfully: not just throwing him out on the court as a living hedge against their revolutionary style of 3pt-oriented offense, but instead crafting a unique role heavy in screening and DHO responsibility that limited his time as dead weight off the ball. Wings who could put up more than a few 3s a game were hard enough to find at this time — acquiring multiple who could do that and also be the connective tissue of an offense was even more difficult. So while he didn’t fulfill the first requirement, Diaw complemented Phoenix’s plethora of gunner wings by bringing traits to the table that were hard to find amongst high volume 3pt shooters at this time (connective passing, screen setting, and reliable secondary ball handling).

So if a team like Phoenix was ideal for Diaw, what contexts would be the worst for him? Although the high pick-and-roll was a staple of the Suns offense, it’s exploded in popularity around the league since 2006. Teams like the Clippers or Mavericks who run a lot of high-ball screens insulated by 3 spacers wouldn’t be the best fit for Boris, as  these streamlined offenses don’t leave much room for a secondary screener like Diaw to find a role. His only option would be becoming the primary roller for these PnR-heavy teams, and while this is the solution the Suns used, it’s probably not tenable for teams who run as many PnRs as Dallas or LAC (especially without a 1B roller as dynamic as Shawn Marion). A motion-based offense like the Warriors’ system would suit his skills far better, as their system calls for wings who can set screens, make quick decisions, and attack closeouts – all things Diaw excelled at. 

Boris’ Solution:

Key skills: Elite connective passing + enough scoring juice to keep defenses honest + replacement level big size and functionality to fill tertiary “big man” offensive duties

Role: high volume screener, DHO operator, and secondary ball handler

Ideal context: High pace team with lots of early offense and motion-heavy sets

So which non-shooting wings in the 2023 draft class could draw inspiration from Diaw in their NBA careers?

This piece won’t include lengthy background information on the prospects themselves, but I’ve linked their individual Swish Theory scouting reports in with the blurbs below.

Perhaps the most forward-slanted player we’ll cover in this series, Jarace Walker is the closest of the ‘23 wing prospects to Diaw’s body type. At 6’8”/240, he fulfills the physical requirements necessary to be a good screen setter (though his technique and physicality could use some work). Walker is also a much more natural fit as a roller due to his athletic profile — he’s a dynamic leaper who can get off the floor in a flash and finish through contact. In many ways, Jarace seems like a better fit for Diaw’s role in Phoenix than Diaw himself. Jarace’s ball handling skills are still emerging, but his senior year at IMG was encouraging, and he offers a similar intersection of overwhelming length (7’2” wingspan) and rare coordination for size that fueled Diaw’s off-the-dribble game. He seems like a good bet to meet the thresholds of handling, decision making, and downhill gravity necessary to function as a DHO-heavy creator like Diaw. 

There isn’t much to project with Jarace here; all he needs is reasonably positive handle development and a continuation of his upward trajectory as a decision maker to slide effortlessly into Phoenix Diaw usage, albeit a less dynamic connective passer but more well-rounded playfinisher. Again, the goal here isn’t to shoehorn the prospects into a certain historical role, but Diaw’s offensive diet is too perfect for Jarace to ignore. Even if he never develops as a shooter, Jarace should be able to stay on an NBA floor between his usefulness as a big secondary initiator, roll gravity, and rebounding upside.

Amen Thompson is a much less cut-and-dry fit in Diaw’s archetype. Amen and Boris might be polar opposites in body type and athletic profile, but they churn problems on the court in a similar manner. Just like Diaw, Amen has a tendency to “over-manipulate” the defense, instead of taking the obvious shot or pass. While this habit is endearing coming from an athletically-limited player like Boris (to which the “obvious” lane might not be so easy!), it can be maddening to watch Amen attempt 3 fake passes and end up with an off-balance floater attempt on a drive where he could’ve simply finished over his defender with a head of steam if he attacked with enough gusto. 

If Amen never becomes a viable shooter, it could be difficult to give him a high usage role as a half-court creator. His biggest problem would then become how to leverage his unique physical and processing gifts without utilizing him as a traditional initiator. Diaw’s role as a funky short roller could provide some inspiration here — while neither of the two fit the physical description for a dominant PnR partner,  both are special enough at *something* on the court to cast aside usual thresholds. For Boris, it was his elite connective decision making paired with the Suns array of knockdown shooters. For Amen, his explosiveness in space could allow him to function as a high-volume roller, even without the typical length or strength of a typical PnR big. Especially on his rookie contract, using Amen as a short roller would be a useful offensive wrinkle to scheme him into open runways and decision making opportunities, before his handle is refined enough to consistently generate those looks against point-of-attack pressure. If he doesn’t shoot, The long term vision for Amen’s role in the half court is hazy, but mixing in possessions as a roller could be part of the solution. 

Wings who narrowly missed the cut for this article (but will feature in future entries of the series!): Ausar Thompson, Dillon Mitchell, Anthony Black

What Did We Learn?

The broadest takeaway I have from my time watching Diaw is how important it is for non-shooting wings to find an alternative way to command defensive attention off the ball. For many of the prospects that I’ll cover in this series, their effectiveness on possessions where they actively contribute to the shot attempt isn’t the issue! The problem is the time they spend off the ball as a passive negative, since they can be disregarded on the perimeter. Because of this, finding a niche in the half-court that a NSW can slide into as a net neutral (or even slight negative) can be hugely impactful. Diaw did this by becoming a roller and DHO operator, even when his body type and pre-NBA play style didn’t line up with that role. I sense that each historical player we’ll cover in this series will find a unique solution of their own that allows them to spend minimal time uninvolved in possessions on the offensive end. 

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At 6’8/240lbs with a reported 7’2 wingspan, Jarace Walker provides the prototypical blend of length and power that NBA teams covet at the 4 spot. Already a dominant interior player in years prior, the development of Walker’s playmaking skillset last season changed the conversation surrounding the 19-year-old forward. His ascension to (imperfect) point forward status opened a whole new world of possibilities for Walker’s potential development track and NBA roles.

At the core of Walker’s appeal as a prospect is his multifaceted athletic profile. He leverages his explosive leaping ability and lightning-quick load time to dominate the restricted arc on both ends. His rim protection and interior finishing ability should allow him to control the paint in the AAC this season.

He’s also incredibly mobile laterally, able to terrorize ballhandlers as a blitzer or hard hedger. His combination of footspeed, length, and active hands make for a coverage versatile big able to adapt to the playstyle of the opposing team’s best creator. He gave fellow projected lotto pick Dariq Whitehead fits in an early season matchup last year:

Ballhandling Flashes

As good as his traditional big skills are, the larger intrigue with Jarace lies with his flashes of initiation. Last season at IMG, Walker showed tremendous growth as a ball handler and decision maker. While still fairly unpolished in these departments (especially his handle), he showed off enough high feel connective reads in a variety of contexts to be optimistic in his upside as a passer.

Jarace’s self-created offense is still a work in progress, but his burst and shift are both well above average for his size. This sequence seems emblematic of Jarace’s off-the-dribble game at this stage: good initial move and burst, loose handle turns a rim attempt into a pullup-2, but his touch from the midrange helps him get the bucket to go anyway.

Walker’s combination of frame and flexibility make for a strong driving game. He’s good at getting low off the bounce, and his moves are more deceiving because of this flexibility; he doesn’t telegraph his intentions as a handler, unlike some other bulkier forwards. While his handle isn’t reliable at this stage, the bar is low for an athlete as explosive and coordinated as Jarace — he just needs to get to a point where his ball control is functional enough to keep up with his change of direction skills.

Although his broad shoulders are useful in stopping defenders from getting back into the play once Jarace gets a step, he doesn’t leverage his strength as much as you’d like for a 240 lbs bowling ball, and doesn’t initiate contact frequently. Driving with more intentional force is an improvement area for him. 

Shooting Projection

The big question mark for Jarace is his outside shot, but it seems to be on an upward trajectory. He’s never been afraid of putting up 3s (3.3 3s/40 mins lifetime per Cerebro, though only at a 25.5% clip), and has maintained a free throw% in the mid-low 70s. He’s also showcased good touch from midrange, where the natural backwards lean of his mechanics synergize nicely with his fadeaway pull up 2s (though this lean would still ideally be rectified long term). At Houston, Jarace has wasted no time working on his mechanics, already reducing his lean-back and cutting down on his previously slow dip. The latter change will boost his catch-and-shoot functionality, allowing Jarace to get off 3s over tighter contests.

Conclusion

Even if a pie-in-the-sky outcome where Jarace turns into a full-fledged NBA initiator is unlikely, becoming a solid connective decision maker, closeout attacker, grab and go option, roller, and DHO operator is a middle-tier outcome that’s very much in the cards for him. Combined with his defensive playmaking and versatility, Walker seems destined for a top 10 selection as a forward/big hybrid gamble with countless different paths to NBA value.

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