The rise of the Steph Curry Warriors was an evolutionary earthquake, changing the nature of the sport quicker than a leather ball rips through a polyester net. Overnight, perimeter shotmaking became en vogue and the focus of the sport continued its way from the confines paint and out beyond the perimeter. 

Somewhere along the way, we lost the plot. A new environment meant new conditions for growth and with that came modernized valuations for incoming draft prospects. While score-first point guards and versatile forwards shot up draft boards (for good reason), that rise coincided with a dramatic decline in the valuation of traditional bigs. 

In some cases, that change was needed. Slow-footed post hubs are all but a thing of the past as the athletic requirements for the position have grown. On the other hand, some of the most valuable defensive big men in the league were drafted well below their actual value. 

From Bam Adebayo to Robert Williams or Jarrett Allen (and Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren for the brave of heart), many of the most impactful young big men in the league were drafted out of the top ten, if not the lottery entirely. 

More important than the missed opportunity of drafting said player is the gaping cavern their absence leaves within a team’s defensive identity. As you look at the best defenses across the league in Cleveland, Milwaukee, Boston or Memphis, great defensive big men continue to lead great defenses. 

Dereck Lively II represents an incredibly interesting thought experiment within this construct. If you are interested in a breakdown of his on-court strengths and weaknesses there is a scouting report released in companion with this piece. What I will be doing here is digging deeper into his concept as a player, how his season fares historically within that archetype, and what developmental context can best maximize his existing skill set. 

Reality can be hard to find when the very earth beneath your feet is constantly changing, but one thing has remained true. It is a blue world trying to contend in the NBA without a playoff-durable big man to own the paint, and that player is harder to find than you might think.

Concept: Rim Running Shotblocker

Walker Kessler, Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Robert Williams

The general concept of the “defense first” center is by no means a new one. Since the inception of the sport the largest person on the court has shouldered the largest defensive burden. When it comes to protecting the basket, size is always going to matter. It is not the fool-proof rule of thumb that it used to be, but its value is inherent: the larger you are the more imposing you are in contesting shots and attacking the glass.

Finding proof of concept for a player like Lively is both incredibly easy and downright impossible. The first place to start feels pretty straightforward in Walker Kessler. Kessler embodies the very hope of what Lively could be, and why it is a fairly easy bet to make. Much like Lively’s first half of the year, Kessler’s freshman season at UNC saw him struggle to earn a consistent role despite his dominating per-possession stats while on the court. 

Kessler’s meteoric rise the following season at Auburn and this year in Utah is a picture-perfect data point on why to be excited. Despite a poor context and role, Kessler’s low-minute dominance at UNC foretold genuine upside that was just a little harder to see. While Lively’s block rate didn’t re-write record books like Kessler did last year, he was incredibly impactful defending the paint and anchored one of the best defenses in college basketball. 

Offensively, the comparison becomes much trickier. Kessler’s freshman and sophomore campaigns saw a significantly larger volume of shots attempted with relatively similar efficiency. Lively’s usage rate of 12.8 would be the lowest of any first round pick in history and is genuinely without precedent. While there is no 1 for 1 comparison, there are a few players that represent a potential development path for Lively in the league. 

The first name that comes to mind when I think of steady-handed competence from the big position is Steven Adams. There was little hope for “star” upside when Adams was drafted in the lottery by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he did grow to become a star in his role while playing a major part on some of the best teams of the 2010s. Giving your young star guard a competent and reliable roll option they can grow alongside is generally good business, for the guard, the big and the organization as a whole.

That value equation is the same for Lively, albeit in a more mobile physical package. Lively is a better vertical athlete, but a worse finisher around the basket (49% vs 58% on non-dunk rim attempts) with about ⅔ of the total scoring volume. The offensive threshold between valuable and unplayable is an incredibly thin line, and Adams just barely crossed it. Lively was a much better passer as a freshman and that skill should translate well to the next level, but for that to happen he will need to be a threat to score.

The other side of that line is Nerlens Noel, drafted with the hopes he would become the perfect modern day rim runner. He was mobile, blocked shots, got steals, had a solid assist rate with the vertical athleticism to draw fouls and dunk everything around the hoop. An ACL injury sapped a little of that high-end athleticism, but ultimately it was his lack of offensive value that derailed the lofty expectations of his career. 

Noel’s hands were an issue as a prospect and against NBA level competition that was only exacerbated. He can struggle to catch and score efficiently as a roll man and when that isn’t working there are few other places to turn. Teams aren’t going to give up five pick-and-roll alley-oops a game. 

This is where the ultimate floor for Lively resides. Noel was a significantly higher 57% on non-dunk rim attempts and his assist rate was nearly identical. Lively dunked the ball slightly more often and at least attempted to take a few threes (a surprisingly encouraging indicator for bigs who can one day kinda shoot), but the concerns are legitimate. 

If Lively isn’t able to provide a genuine threat to score as a roller there is no offensive foundation to grow upon. His defense is too good to wash out of the league, I believe that firmly, but the idea he is a sure-fire starter or even high-end rotation piece is lacking some important nuance.

On the other extreme, Robert Williiams II shows what this archetype can be if they are able to provide genuine rim pressure. Williams is an incredible defensive big that provides the Celtics real versatility as a primary rim protector or weak side rotator. 

Robert Williams is one of two big men drafted since 2017 to make an All-Defense team, but what separates him from his peers is his offensive value. Williams is a ferocious athlete with the strength to dunk through people in a way few prospects have, but it is his touch around the rim that is the foundation for his success. 

He has good hands and easily exceeds the lower requirement for touch as a roll man, which is in essence simply scoring efficiently against your typical pick and roll defense. With a proper ball handler Williams has the tools, touch and tough screen setting to tear apart traditional coverages, and that efficiency is what opens up his game as a passer. 

His offensive value is what keeps him on the court in crunch time or playoff settings, providing the foundation of minutes needed to have an All-Defense caliber season. Staying on the court is half the battle for defensive bigs these days, and that is the battle Lively will need to survive in order to truly hit his ceiling. 

That feels like an impossible task from a macro view. William’s freshman year usage was double Lively’s (23.4 vs 12.8) and touch around the rim significantly higher (61.6 vs 48.8). While that is true, the bar required for scoring volume or offensive value is not that of Robert Williams, but rather somewhere between the two. The game isn’t about finding the best possible offensive center, it is about finding one with the foundational skill required to remain on the court long enough to truly impact the course of games. Lively will do that defensively, but offensively is another question. 

Lively thrives above the rim and his 3.2 dunks per 40 minutes is an incredibly encouraging mark for someone in a spacing deprived offense. Beyond above-rim pressure there was very little substance to Lively’s scoring package. As a comparison to Williams he not only had a smaller volume of rim attempts but, more starkly, took eight (!!) shots in the midrange, compared to Williams with 105. 

That difference in assertiveness and usage is incredibly stark with both parties irreconcilably affected by their on-court context. That isn’t to say Lively would have had a similar offensive season with the 2017 Texas A&M team, but maybe the difference wouldn’t be as stark and the developmental hill to climb wouldn’t seem so steep. Lively doesn’t have to reach Williams’ level of offensive impact, but his developmental journey and on-court roll represents the path for Lively to truly hit on his upside.

Context: On-Ball Creation, Spacing, Secondary Rim Protection

Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers

Dereck Lively entered this college basketball season with a mountain of expectations. Lively, ESPNs #1 ranked recruit in the class of 2022, enrolled at Duke with other highly touted freshmen in Dariq Whitehead, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor to form one of the most decorated recruiting classes in recent memory. 

Duke began the year ranked as a top 10 team in the country on the backs of their newly-minted blue-chip freshmen, but the year quickly turned sour. It was immediately apparent that the team did not have enough spacing to survive (particularly in the absence of Dariq Whitehead), nor the on-ball creation necessary to truly maximize Lively’s skillset. 

The good news is that he will have better spacing and on-ball creation on the roster surrounding him next year regardless of which team selects him, and that should help open up some of his offensive game. But what situations give him the best chance at hitting the higher end of his potential?

Oklahoma City is the first team that comes to mind and the longer I think about it the more excited I become. SGA is a legit, A1 creator for the future and with Josh Giddey next to him they should have 48 minutes of good point guard play every night. Factor in the emergence of Jalen Williams as a true-blue wing scorer and the presence of the greatest shooting coach of all time in Chip Engelland (silent weeping), OKC has all the offensive ingredients needed to insulate and maximize Lively’s development.

Defensively, it is hard to not get excited about a frontcourt pairing of Chet Holmgren and Dereck Lively. Both have the mobility needed to play a variety of defensive schemes and switch out on the perimeter (in moderation) while being two of the best freshman shot blockers in college basketball history. I am floored as I type this, a spiritual embodiment of Ryan Reynolds’ character in The Big Short. Chet is going to shoot it (you can carve that into the streets of Bricktown, it’s happening), and in turn may be the ideal frontcourt pairing for Lively now and in the future. 

Houston offers another intriguing fit later in the teens, but comes with a caveat. There needs to be a point guard of the future in place for this to have any chance of working. This team desperately needs someone to bring a sense of structure offensively. Drafting Scoot would immediately assuage those fears, and suddenly a supporting cast of future All-Star scorer Jalen Green and complimentary two-way forwards in Jabari Smith and Tari Eason starts to look a whole lot more enticing. 

The Jabari/Tari combo is what really draws me to Houston above other fits as they, in tandem, provide all of the helpside rim protection, perimeter defense, shooting and rim pressure you could ask for next to Lively. If Houston is able to find a real point guard of the future, you would be hard pressed to find a better realistic fit in this upcoming draft. 

The fit in Toronto has, in a way, already been proven. Jakob Poeltl’s mid-season re-addition provided a backbone to their defense and a much needed safety valve for their pick and roll operators. Given time Lively’s impact could be largely similar with a tilt towards the defensive end of the floor. Poeltl is an incredibly sound defensive big with remarkable instincts, but lacking the plus length and athleticism to reach All-Defense levels consistently. Lively is not the scorer around the rim Poeltl was, but his defensive impact and potential is higher. 

This isn’t to say Lively is going to be a better player than Poeltl, that outcome would be an incredibly positive one for Lively. Even if he never reaches that level, he may provide more value to the Raptors simply by being younger with seven years of guaranteed team control. Poeltl is going to be expensive this summer and I would be shocked to see him sign elsewhere after Toronto paid such a hefty price to acquire him. Still,  it would be prudent to have a potential replacement waiting in the wings for when Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam all begin to negotiate new deals and the cost of Poeltl’s contract becomes prohibitive. 

Finally, Indiana is an intriguing fit for a few different reasons. The presence of Tyrese Haliburton guarantees a competent floor general for Lively to learn and grow with, particularly one that is both reliant-on and remarkable-in operating a pick and roll. Rick Carlisle’s approach in catering offensive sets to Mathurin this year is a sign his feelings toward playing rookies may have finally thawed. To help the  warming process, Lively fits incredibly cleanly into the style of basketball Carlisle teams like to play: fast pace, ball screen oriented attack with a true rim running big. 

Myles Turner may be on a new contract, but I for one would not be surprised to hear rumors he’s on the trade market by next deadline. When there is smoke there must be fire, and half a decade of burning embers don’t go out overnight. Adding a big in Lively that is both cost controlled and more befitting of their coaches game plan seems like an obvious win. I would even be intrigued to see them play together, at least initially. In the long run, his potential fit with Haliburton and Mathurin is about as clean as it gets.

Content:

How good of a defensive prospect is Lively? What is the minimum threshold of scoring volume needed to leverage short roll passing? What is the offensive value of a rim runner?

As a precursor to this piece, I spent an enormous amount of time this season combing through old prospect stat profiles, trying to figure out what indicators are actually valuable in projecting defensive success in the NBA. When it came to bigs, I came away with four specific metrics that appeared to have substantive value:

• Defensive Box +/- (DBPM)
• Block Rate (BLK%)
• Offensive Rebound Rate (OREB%)
• Age

Relatively basic statistical data points that, when used in conjunction, do a surprisingly successful job at identifying big man prospects with the potential to be impactful defenders in the league. 

Historically, Lively’s draft age of 19.33 is young for a freshman and his DBPM of 6.5 is a remarkable outlier. Lively’s DBPM ranks in the top 25 of all college players since 2008, regardless of experience or class. It is only once you factor in his relative youth, the company surrounding him on that list and the difficulty of competition he faced at Duke that the magnitude of his success begins to come into focus.

Big men take time to become impactful defenders. That is a tried and true fact, something you will hear evaluators say a thousand times every draft cycle. It’s an incredibly nuanced and difficult job that takes  preternatural feel and anticipation to reach the highest levels of impact. 

Being not just a good, but a great defensive center as an 18 year old freshman playing for a high major school simply doesn’t happen. When someone is drastically ahead of their age curve in any aspect of development, that tends to be an indicator of outlier potential. 

Lively may not be an excellent defensive big man next year in the NBA, but his macro-level production and in-season improvement defending ball screens and reading the floor defensively make me incredibly confident in his ability to solve problems over the course of his development. 

The focus then turns to the opposite side of the court. When you are as talented of a defensive prospect as Lively, playing a position where defense is your primary avenue to impact, the equation for offensive success changes. You are no longer looking for the most dominant offensive player, but simply a player with potential avenues of contributing to effective offense. 

For Lively, his rim pressure as a lob threat and in the dunker spot should be immediately translatable. He will need to add significant size and strength, but that feels like an incredibly easy bet to make for someone with his age and frame. The non-dunk finishing will need to improve greatly, but playing in an offense with a dynamic creator on-ball and spacing on the wings would go a long way in opening up the court and providing Lively easier looks around the rim. 

When looking at previous big man prospects with poor non-dunk rim efficiency, Jalen Duren (53.3%) and Bam Adebayo (48.8%) were two that stuck out. Yes, both of those guys took a lot more shots and drew fouls at a much higher rate than Lively. 

With that said, all three were incredibly effective and proficient above-rim finishers. That is where their gravity comes from, vertical spacing and relentless strength attacking the rim. Lively is much thinner than both at this age but is strong for his frame and markedly taller than both. If he is able to catalyze that strength as he grows into his frame, most of these problems will fix themselves.  

The key point here is magnitude: Dereck Lively does not need to become an elite finisher to succeed. He simply needs to be good enough, when accounting for his above-rim finishing, to be a legitimate threat to score as a roller. That feels like a reasonable projection to make and one that could pay major dividends down the line. 

The offensive value of an effective rim runner is a nuanced thing, but something that can play a large role in creating a positive environment for developing creators. A good screener can be used in a variety of ways. Screens are set in just about every single possession, be it in a high pick and roll or to free an off ball shooter or to screen the man defending the screener of a different action. NBA teams love to set screens and despite how opaque it sounds, powerful and timely screen setting combined with quick processing and the sight-lines of a seven-footer make for a sneakily impactful offensive player to complement the defensive fireworks. 

That isn’t going to require some outlandish skill development or unlikely improvement. Lively was a much better passer than the numbers suggest, and the numbers were actually solid! Being able to put the ball on the deck out of a DHO, score in the post or stretch the floor would be an incredible development, none are a necessary one for Lively to truly hit as a prospect. Improved foul drawing, the strength to finish through contact, a reliable push shot in the paint: those are what will determine Lively’s success.

Like all good things in life development isn’t going to come easily, but it is far from an unreasonable task. There aren’t a multitude of areas that need to see vast development. The scope is much more narrow, and in turn the spotlight is that much brighter. 

Cultivating an environment suitable for that kind of growth will require structures in place to support him throughout the process. Those supports aren’t permanent, they are just meant to help guide the process during its most vulnerable phases. Dereck Lively has the foundation of skills to one day withstand even the most violent of earthquakes, he just needs time to establish his roots. 

The post Dereck Lively II and the Big Man Blues appeared first on Swish Theory.

The upcoming series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks is projected to be one of the closer ones. In this series, I do schematic deep dives on either team, and explore the hypothetical questions that I believe to be the key points of interest for the opponents.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Scheme

Empty Side

The Cavaliers run a three-out two-in offense with heavy motion from their guards. They push empty side pick-and-rolls as much as any other team in the NBA. They’ll push these early in transition.

Part of optimising their two inside big men is by rotating them as the empty side screener, though you’re more than likely going to see Mobley as the screener and Jarrett Allen in the dunker spot when they run this. Their overall philosophy in early offense is optional ball screens, giving Mitchell and Garland structure but not robbing them of freedom. The presence of Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot gives them easy buckets if the defense is collapsed. He’s in the 90^th percentile for half-court scoring efficiency.

Wedge Action

One of the Cavs’ most common actions out of their base offense is running wedge actions. This is simply an angled screen to the baseline. They run these for Evan Mobley to give him a chance to post-up or attack off the catch. Here they run Wedge Action to generate a look for Evan Mobley. He turns the ball over on this play (I’ll get to those issues later), but they get him in space on an empty side with ease.

The Cavaliers don’t do this as a one-shot type play though, they have many other options and counters from it. Here they run ‘wedge roll’ which is as it sounds. They then flow straight into a pick-and-roll.

Sometimes the mere threat of the option is enough to give them more cushion on pick-and-rolls. Here Darius Garland flows straight into a pick-and-roll and essentially ignores Okoro attempting to set the wedge screen for Allen, with the help defense occupied by the potential of this action.

Teams are hyper aware of the Cavaliers’ wedge actions and they fear them because empty side actions are the main way they try and ease spacing concerns. The play below illustrates a nice counter the Cavs have for it.

You see the Pacers sitting under Okoro for two reasons. One is because they don’t really respect him as a shooter, but the premiere reason is that they expect the wedge roll action to come. Garland sees this and pitches it to Mobley and Okoro screens Garland’s man as they flow into Delay Chicago action. It’s great offense and shows JB Bickerstaff’s attention to detail.

Flex and Rip Concepts

I’ve labelled this “flex concepts” because the Cavs don’t run the entirety of the flex offense, but they like to move their guards through the paint in screen-the-screener type actions which is the absolute epitome of what the flex offense is all about.

On this play, the Cavaliers don’t create an advantage out of the wedge action I mentioned above…

…so they pitch to the screener and go into a pick-and-roll with Darius Garland eventually setting a flex screen to get Evan Mobley to the low block. They initially didn’t get Mobley good post position but showed a multi-faceted approach to get it on a counter.

Such things don’t exist in Basketball analysis to my knowledge, but if there was a heat map that tracked players movements, I’m almost certain that the Cavaliers guards would touch the paint off-ball more than any other team due to their flex and rip concepts. These guards are deployed off-ball moving through the paint very regularly.

I enjoyed this play shown below.

They pitch to Isaac Okoro, but watch Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. They flow into an initial ‘floppy’ action (a double screen set for someone to emerge from the paint). After it doesn’t get an opening, Garland cuts to the other side on the flex scissors action and Okoro hits Evan Mobley for the dunk.

If one play summarised Cleveland’s Philosophy it’s this: these guards work for their touches out of flex concepts. This ties in with Bickerstaff’s overall philosophy. He loves the chin offense which is why he’s a perfect fit to coach a team with two bigs.

They often run these plays to try and alleviate spacing concerns. Mobley-Allen isn’t a great perimeter spacing duo as of now. So basic spread concepts aren’t really going to reap rewards. Here the Cavaliers run some flex action before flowing into an empty side pick and roll.

If you’re trying to get a big line-up to work, your guards have to do their due diligence off the ball as you ideally want to maximise the big men as elbow hubs. The Cavaliers do a great job of this when they run ‘Rip’ Action such as below. Rip action is merely a player back screening then receiving the ball.

With Ricky Rubio healthy, these sets have even more of a ceiling for the Cavaliers because his processing speed is borderline generational. Here they set up a Cross Screen for Lamar Stevens and Donovan Mitchell comes off a pindown after setting the cross screen, but Rubio sees the defense tilt away from Caris Levert in the corner and they get an easy look.

Pistol

Any team with two elite guards is going to run pistol action. While I wouldn’t call this Cleveland’s absolute staple, it’s another way they can create empty side actions and give high value touches to their lead guards. Below is the absolute most basic luck and their typical structure out of it.

Both of their lead guards in the same action. They go into a pick-and-roll. The opposite side spacing has their small forward and then Jarrett Allen at the dunker spot. They bail out to him on this play and he hits the floater. He’s in the 62^nd percentile for efficiency on these shots so it will be intriguing if teams live with this one and possibly sell out elsewhere.

They also use pistol to flow into delay action and to generate empty side actions like in the play below.

They look as if they’re going to flow into Delay Chicago after the initial pistol exchange. Instead, Levert cuts all the way to the weakside and they go into an empty-side pick and roll. Teams often blitz these so Mobley’s rolling can be highly fruitful on these actions.

Here things get a little more exotic, as they run Pistol Rip Empty Hawk.

Garland receives the ball from Mitchell. Mobley backscreens for Mitchell then comes up to set the screen (this creates the same advantage as ram action). They flow into an empty-side pick and roll and Mitchell cuts through the paint and comes off a double stagger which is Hawk action. It’s another illustration of Cavs guards moving off-ball, but also creating empty side actions out of multiple scenarios.

They run the same play against the Blazers here. This time Garland dribbles towards the empty side when he sees Nurkic in drop. The Hawk action occupies the defense and Garland scores the layup.

They also mix some ‘veer’ action into their pistol offense. This involves a screen for a ball handler, with the screener then darting elsewhere to set an off-ball screen in the same action or motion. Here they run it against the Orlando Magic.

On this occasion they do it to try and attack Bol Bol on the empty side pick-and-roll with a step up screen. Sometimes though they just do it to free up a shooter and create an advantage for Garland or Mitchell such as here.

Good offenses mesh all of their concepts together. I noted earlier how the Cavs like to use their guards on flex and rip concepts, here they tie this together with pistol.

They have the initial pistol action with Mitchell then going straight in a double drag action. This is deception for ‘rip’ action for Darius Garland who comes off a screen, then sets a backscreen of his own before darting for an open three. It’s a great example of how the Cavaliers Empty Side and Inside to out guard cutting concepts all meshing.

Ram

The Cavs also like to run ‘ram’ action, where a screener comes off a screen before screening for the ball-handler. They like to do this mixed with different secondary actions as a way of trying to freeze or occupy defenders. This is as they don’t have natural outside spacing with Mobley and Allen. They’ll often run this more against teams who play drop coverage. They run it here against the Rockets.

Mitchell is the initial screener for Jarrett Allen, and then exits to the perimeter off an Evan Mobley screen. The execution will need to be more flawless in the playoffs but the logic is to occupy the defense in a way Evan Mobley just being stationary on the perimeter wouldn’t occupy it.

They’ll often run it if they have smaller line-ups too such as here against the Orlando Magic.

This time, the exit action occupies the help defense the whole way, and Darius Garland essentially walks into an easy bucket when his man gets caught on Evan Mobley’s screen. It’s one of their most common concepts.

Here, they run a ‘small’ variant of Ram action with more inverted philosophy.

Donovan Mitchell this time receives a screen from Jarrett Allen and then Ghost Screens for Darius Garland. Allen chases it immediately and Garland once again walks into a wide-open bucket. They’ll use this ‘Ram Short 77 Ghost’ to try and force switches.

On the play below, they use it in a way that raises hypothetical questions about the action.

They have Jarrett Allen be the on-ball screener, and Evan Mobley executes ‘Short’ Action which is a cut to the strongside. Notice how it freezes the defender and Allen can get a free lane because of this as the Ram gave him some extra room at the beginning of the play.

The hypothetical question they will have to answer in the Knicks series is whether they’re better with Allen or Mobley as the on-ball screener. Allen is more likely to have Mitchell Robinson on him and he may feel comfortable playing free safety in that scenario. But Robinson is extremely disruptive at the level of the screen so having Allen as the screener might create more difficulties for the offense. They’ll likely mix things up, but this will be interesting to monitor.

My good friend Bowser also clipped another play similar to ram, known as ‘New Zealand’ Action.

This involves a ram screening action on the empty side. This may be something they go to in the playoffs if things stagnate with their more common actions.

Double Drags and Horns

Like any team trying to maximise a big frontcourt, the Cavaliers optimise Double Drags, and I think they’ll run these more in this series than usual. This is largely because a double screening action can put real strain on Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme as they prioritise defending the paint so may leave shooters open if the Cavs opt to use a guard in the action. They also quite commonly switch 4-5 so the Cavaliers may get some matchups they like. Here, they run ’77 Small’ with Donovan Mitchell ghost screening. Darius Garland then puts Dillon Brooks in the torture chamber.

The Cavaliers have done a great job mixing in these ghost screens. Here on this play against the Heat, Mitchell ghosting creates chaos.

Though the Knicks may be organised at the point of attack than Miami, they can still get beneficial switches and potentially get bigger defenders off Garland. It’s essentially they run these ‘small’ variants of double drag.

I love how high they set some of these double drag screens like they do here against Memphis.

The Cavs routinely have the second screener roll pretty quickly. Look how tough it is to defend. The Knicks will defend it in a similar way with trying to contain the drive. Expect to see the Cavs run a load of these.

As I’ve mentioned throughout this article, counters are important. On this play the Grizzlies try and get ahead of the action so Mobley rolls quickly and Darius Garland executes ‘get’ action which is receiving your own pass on a dribble handoff.

A key theoretical of the double drag comes with regards to Evan Mobley. The Knicks will almost certainly leave him open. They do with just about any popper in a double drag set. But Mobley needs to be aggressive. This is what will swing the series for Cleveland. Here against the Knicks he pops and takes Obi Toppin off the catch.

Though Toppin won’t see the floor often, it’s still an important play. He has to be willing to be decisive. Indecision kills offense more than inability at times. The Knicks will defend these double drags high and likely have Mobley’s man tag the roller. Hartenstein and Robinson will be containing the drive. He has to be decisive.

Cleveland also mixes in Horns Sets as a way of trying to keep the opposition center outside of the paint. Here they run a classic- Horns Ghost Flare.

Horns concepts are good because they can generate quick hitters for their elite guards while creating matchup problems. Using the gravity of their star guards early in actions just creates some incredible moments such as here where they mesh Horns and turn it into a Spain-Pick-And-Roll.

Spain Pick-And-Rolls are nightmarish anyway, and the Cavaliers mixing it with Horns is just excellent offense. It maximises the gravity of their guards and keeps bigs at the level. Spain PNRs can be particularly fruitful against the Knicks because it tests Tom Thibodeau’s philosophy of always having his low man tag the roller instead of defending the corner shot.

Cleveland also likes to use Ghost screens out of a Horns outline to generate favourable switches.

This will be particularly relevant in the Knicks series because Darius Garland can definitely get bothered by size, though it’s not a gigantic concern for me. Ghost screens in general are very good and they hold a big purpose for the Cavaliers.

The New York Knicks Defense

Now that I’ve looked at the Cavaliers diverse scheme, we should look at the New York Knicks defense. Per a source with Second Spectrum, the Knicks are 7th in the NBA in drop coverage frequency, and 2nd in at the level coverage. They rarely hedge or trap or play zone. They are aggressive at helping from the nail which is a staple of Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme. He prioritises defending the paint with a 5-man wall and expects his wings and guards to rotate to open shooters. The strong side defense looks something like this.

Note both corner defenders aggressively helping towards the paint. Hartenstein being up towards the level. Immanuel Quickley helping off his man to try and disrupt the roller. Some teams run teams off the three-point line with aggressive and close rotations. The Knicks escort you off of it at the top of the key then make your driving path as miserable as possible.

Here’s what the defense looks like in video form. Note how they’re in drop coverage on this occasion.

Note Julius Randle tag the roller, and then making RJ Barrett responsible for ‘splitting the difference’ between the two perimeter guys. Thibodeau’s wing defenders need to be instinctive, reactive and aggressive. Here the Knicks recover out to Darius Garland and force a shot they’re comfortable with from a structural perspective.

My general Hypothesis for this series is that empty side actions will decide the series. The Knicks love Empty Side Pick-And-Rolls for Jalen Brunson because the ‘counter punch’ out of it is baseline fadeaway jumpers, which might be Brunson’s strongest shot as his offensive ability off the planted pivot foot is elite.

Above I’ve mentioned how the Cavs love empty side actions and how the majority of their core actions can be to set up these empty side actions. It makes sense to explore how the Knicks defend these actions and ponder how fruitful they might be.

If the empty side action takes place on the right side and the screen is taking the guard towards the open side, they’ll generally be in ‘ICE Coverage’. This means they’re funnelling the play towards the sideline and essentially using the out of bounds line as an extra defender. It looks like this.

If the screen is set to the left side of the guard, the Knicks will mix up coverages. Here against the Wizards, they have Hartenstein drop so Kyle Kuzma just takes his man into the paint and hits the fadeaway.

Against the Cavaliers, empty side coverages can be complex and tricky because Garland and Mitchell are both incredibly shifty, and Allen and Mobley are such good screeners. Their ability to be unpredictable with the personnel can make a one size fits all scouting report difficult. I expect the Knicks to mix in some at the level coverages simply because Darius Garland is incredibly shifty off the dribble against drop coverage. Like what do you do with this?

Randle tries to drop and deal with Mobley, Barrett has to help away from Donovan Mitchell. Brunson isn’t active, and Jericho Sims is concerned about Jarrett Allen. Weirdly, Allen’s allergy to the perimeter can actually benefit the Cavs against Thibodeau’s strong side defense. He’s more concerned with Allen at the dunker spot than he would be with a corner shooter, philosophically.

This time, Hartenstein starts at the level of the screen. But once Garland gets a step on his man it’s close to over. Hartenstein is juggling being in the driving lane with mirroring the roll-man.

Note in this play how Quentin Grimes doesn’t really help off of Donovan Mitchell. Their approach to this will be intriguing because if you do help, even momentarily, you risk Mitchell being able to create off the catch and go like he does here. It’s generally clear though that a smaller guard on Garland without any nail help probably isn’t going to end well.

The Little Things- What the Cavaliers Can Do

Playoff series come down to micro adjustments more often than you might think. Here are a few things I think Cleveland can do to potentially make life easier for them.

The first, is setting higher screens. Given the Knicks like to be in ICE Coverage on these empty side actions, you can really cause havoc by setting the screens higher.

Note here that the entire empty side is genuinely empty. It’s because Randle has much more ground to cover in order to enforce the ‘No Middle’ ideology. Mobley also has more rolling room. I think high screens can genuinely really cause the Knicks problems in this series. I’d also attempt to get Randle and Brunson in actions as much as possible. Neither are awful defenders but they’re a step slower than their team-mates.

Here, the Cavaliers do the same with their ‘ram’ action.

Look at the gap between Grimes and his teammates before the action even happens. You could park a car in there. Mitchell makes Randle dance by faking the right drive, then makes Grimes dance before hitting the pull-up three. A good way to delegitimise nail help is to just set the action really far away from it.

Putting Donovan Mitchell or Garland in the actions as an off-ball threat should prove fruitful. I think their wedge set in particular could be a nice way to test if the Knicks want to trap. Here against Portland, the Blazers run wedge roll with Anfernee Simons setting the wedge screen for Nurkic.

Thibodeau wants to maintain structure above all else. No middle at all costs. Putting your best players in the action really tests this because your nearest help defender has to worry about a star moving off-ball. They could walk into good jump shots or just generally get the defense on the back foot with how they position guys.

Generally, I think pre-action is needed to really get at the Knicks. Make them work and force them to make quick decisions. Thibs wants teams to play slow against his defense. Something as simple as what Minnesota do here, would suffice.

The Wolves trigger the ICE Coverage with a quick pass to Mike Conley on the empty side. Gobert rolls, and when Randle tags, Conley hits Kyle Anderson who is able to manipulate the help defense to create a wide open three. Generally, forcing these nail help guys to be as reactive as possible is a good way of winning games. Generally, their target should be to get these with pre-action and higher screens.

In Summary

Overall, this might be the most interesting first round series of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavaliers offense is diverse and fluid, and the Knicks defense is really tough. Evan Mobley needs to be aggressive, and the Knicks help defense will need to be on point. The battle of the nail help defenders likely decides this series. I’m not meaning to underestimate the Knicks defense, it’s an immense unit. I just think there are ways Cleveland can attack it and that’s what I’ve tried to explore in this series. I hope you enjoyed.

The post The Most Interesting First Round Series: Cavs vs. Knicks appeared first on Swish Theory.