This may sound like I’m being critical, but I’m not. Long-term star injuries for contenders are rightfully watershed moments in NBA thinking, especially regarding team building. How can you not? The same moment happened when Kevin Durant grabbed his leg in Toronto during the 2019 Finals. And given the cascading effect of that injury, we were right to speculate wildly.

Although the Celtics are unlikely to experience the catastrophic post-injury season that Golden State went through, many of the same assumptions apply. The team won’t be contending this upcoming season. Their immediate window is over. Tough questions will have to be asked of the roster. The question for me becomes, can the Boston Celtics use this tragic injury to their benefit in the long run?

Key Assumptions

Those reading this most likely fall under the umbrella of NBA sicko-dom. You follow Keith Smith, you’ve opened Spotrac to check on contracts, and you can list CBA rules off the top of your head. You know, normal people stuff. The average NBA fan has some idea of how the salary cap works, but the motivations of NBA front offices/ownership groups and the avenues to accomplish their goals may be more of a mystery. My first assumption is that most people who wear Celtics hats don’t understand the ramifications of the salary cap.

The worst-kept secret in the NBA is that everybody fears the consequences of the luxury tax. Even Warriors owner Joe Lacob, with a franchise seemingly doubling in value yearly and a line of minority investors in Patagonia quarter-zips around the block, feared the tax. The Boston Celtics hit their tax window perfectly, setting up a two-year run of having Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White all paid their worth. That first season resulted in a championship. The second, as we know, was a tragedy. My second assumption is that no matter how these playoffs went, the bill was coming due, and a slash-and-burn salary dumping was coming this offseason.

But the dollar figure is secondary here. What matters most are the restrictions associated with salary cap overages. New ownership will want a clean slate upon which to build a new team instead of being beholden to the transactions of the old regime. This leads us to the number that will define Boston’s offseason.

$19,959,873

The second apron is the word you’ll hear a lot this offseason. That amount you see above is the projected dollar amount Boston needs to cut to get below that figure. The second apron is extremely restrictive for a team that will need to be nimble over the next few seasons.

First and foremost, it stops you from aggregating multiple outgoing salaries together in trades or taking in more money than you send out. As long as they’re above the apron, Boston cannot send out multiple players in a single trade, and their cap number can only decrease in any trade. This, by itself, is very limiting. On top of that, if you spend three out of five years in the second apron, your first-round pick automatically becomes the 30th overall pick. It also limits the future draft picks you can trade.

The goal of this new CBA was to promote parity around the league, spread the talent out, make dynasties harder to form over years, and engage every fan base. When you’re the Boston Celtics, having five players making $28+ million is like walking into a bear den with your pockets full of beef jerky.

Boston’s championship team was $5 million above the second apron, and this year’s team was $4.4 million over. Don’t just take this prediction from me: Wyc Grousbeck, the newly former Celtics owner, said it himself. Since the draft pick penalty rolls over five years, the Celtics would have their first-round picks moved to #30 in several upcoming seasons. They would need to duck the second apron for three consecutive seasons to avoid further penalties.

In short, if the Celtics don’t find a way to shed this money, they’ll be strung up by their ankles trying to improve this roster in the coming years. Jayson Tatum is 27 years old, Jaylen Brown is 28 years old, and the two project to have many great years of basketball ahead of them. This limitation on their roster-building capabilities would be tough to overcome. Now, let’s figure out how Boston can get under this.

One last number to consider here: 13. Boston has to enter the season with at least 13 players to meet the league minimum requirement. As things stand, they have 12 under contract for next year. So all moves will need to keep that target number in mind.

The Jrue Holiday Issue

Jrue is the first and foremost player in these conversations. This season was the first year of a four-year, $134 million extension Holiday signed after the championship run. They wanted to take care of him for the chance at back-to-back titles, but it has been clear he would be one of the first to go, especially as he declines going into his age-35 season.

This article isn’t about speculating who Boston can acquire; you’re all adults capable of working a trade machine. This is about the math needed for a route to cap relief. So here’s the breakdown on what Boston can do to whittle down that $20 million tax overage, starting with Jrue’s $32.4M salary.

Boston must take back at least 80% of Jrue’s salary in a two-team deal. Assuming they can find a deal to take back the minimum, whether one player or multiple, that would be $6.48M in savings. That’s roughly a third of the number needed. It gets even more interesting when you take three-team deals into account. The 80% rule doesn’t have to go all the way around. Boston can send Jrue to one team, then that team can send the 80% of Jrue’s salary to a third team, who can in turn send 80% of THAT salary back to Boston.

If GM Brad Stevens can make a three-team deal work at the minimum amount, Boston could take back a minimum of $20.74M. That would be $11.66M in total savings, more than half of the number needed. Assuming this gets done by acquiring two or more players, that would also put Boston at or above the 13 minimum required players. Now, we’re left with some flexibility and several ways to get the remaining $8.3M off the books.

Remaining Options

I will take a leap here and assume that neither Jayson Tatum nor Jaylen Brown will be dealt. That leaves a few avenues for the remaining money.

First, and most obviously, they can move on from Kristaps Porzingis and his expiring $30.7M salary. If Boston again takes back the minimum salary in a two-team deal, that’s $6.14M in savings. Expanding to a three-team deal, the Celtics could save up to $11M; only taking back $19.7M in the exchange. That could cover the tax amount needed, but something else comes into play: the upcoming draft. Boston owns the 28th and 32nd overall picks, and assuming they draft and keep players at both those slots, that salary would put them back into the apron.

There are avenues to overcome this. Neemias Queta, Xavier Tillman, and Jordan Walsh all have minimum-level deals that could be salary dumped into the cap room of another team, or traded for non-guaranteed contracts that Boston can then waive. But it would be tight and would cut into their 13-player roster minimum.

Another option would be Sam Hauser and his $10M salary. His contract is small enough to be traded into an exception or cap room for teams with cleaner salary sheets. That and some trades involving the minimum deals above would accomplish the task. This would be even tougher to navigate with the player minimums, however. Turning Hauser and one or more others into zero returning players would put extra pressure on a Jrue Holiday trade to include three or more players coming back.

I lean towards Porzingis being the solution here. His expiring deal and dip in play this year make him an obvious candidate. Hauser did have a down year, but he fits the system well and is on the books for four more years. Trading Hauser for other players wouldn’t accomplish much due to the tax problems. So, of the more obvious solutions after Jrue, Kristaps makes the most sense.

However, Porzingis and Hauser aren’t the only solutions to this.

The Nuclear Option

One assumption I’ve made up until this point is that Boston is making these moves with the intention of returning to the fray with the same core after Tatum is healthy. Their star wing pairing, plus Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, can all stay on the roster while they duck the second apron. That would almost certainly make them a playoff team in a weak East next year with Brown, White, Pritchard, and whatever they get back for the above trades.

But there are alternatives. What if Boston looks at Derrick White, about to turn 31 and begin a four-year, $118 million extension, as a potential negative asset by the time Tatum returns? After all, defense-first guards tend to fall off cliffs sooner than expected. Perhaps Boston thinks it can get out of the casino before going bust by trading White to a more immediate contender, getting a big haul of picks, and truly re-tooling.

Pritchard is another question. His four-year, $30 million extension is an absolute steal for the Sixth Man of the Year. His upcoming $6.7M salary wouldn’t solve the tax problems by itself, but that low salary would certainly up his price in a potential deal.

Perhaps Boston thinks it can trim the fat on declining or less essential players and try to run it back in 2026-27. An alternative would be to trade White, Pritchard, and Hauser in addition to Holiday for short-term deals and let Porzingis stick around. That would clear a whopping $83.8 million, and open up nearly $60 million in cap room for the season when Tatum returns.

It would be a whole lot of uncertainty. That level of teardown could rip apart the fabric of Boston’s culture. Even if the internal promises to Tatum/Brown indicate this isn’t a true rebuild, it’s hard to trust someone on their word if the results are poor. There is the risk that if you break things apart you may be unable to build them again. But it could potentially raise the ceiling of the team once Tatum is back in the fold.

Which Way, Butler Man?

If you’ve taken anything away from this, know that Boston will be saying some tough goodbyes this offseason. And that general manager Brad Stevens will have many ways to accomplish this.

The fans’ goodwill after this injury effectively buys you a season to do what is needed. The title expectations are on hiatus. Stevens could trim salary, retain the core, and acquire some flexibility. Or he can take significant steps to reload Boston’s draft picks and try to fill as many rotation spots as possible with draft picks, enabling them to take a chance on acquiring more star talent.

There are so many variables at play here. Does the core want to stay? Will Al Horford wish to come back to a team that won’t be able to contend next season? Can stud head coach Joe Mazzulla coach a 45-win team the same way he can coach a 60-win team? Is Boston willing to risk getting Milwaukee’d by seeing one of their outgoing players end up on a team they’ll have to face in coming years, as Jrue Holiday did with their team? Most variable of all, does Boston believe that Tatum can come back strong after such a devastating injury?

I’d be surprised if any team is more active in trade calls this offseason. It’s an unusual position for a high-profile team to be quasi-sellers with two All-Stars on the roster, but thems the breaks. When that Shams Charania notification about Boston trading a piece away hits your phone this summer, you’ll know why these deals are being done.

The post The Boston Celtics Rebuild Window appeared first on Swish Theory.

The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Draft experts are often drawn more to these players because they see the ceiling. Coaches, however (especially in more dire situations) tend to shy away because they know that potential takes time, something the coach themselves is rarely afforded. However, if they were able to ride the rollercoaster of development, the reward could very well be worth the reward. 

With that in mind, Hamidou Diallo should be considered by many teams during the upcoming free agency period.

Archetypal Examples

Often, after one too many sophomoric mistakes, coaches can be unmotivated to continue to give young players reps. It is easy to forget just why a front office signed them in the first place, especially in the middle of a listless season, with little to play for over months at a time. But these developmental reps, often when few are watching, can be of immense value for flawed players attempting to make a leap to relevance.

Josh Smith came out of high school raw as could be. By the time he left Atlanta, he was considered one of the best active players to never make an All-Star appearance with career averages of 15.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game. Even if that was his peak (let’s not talk about his time in Detroit), those nine seasons were worth the developmental time, a key contributor to playoff teams in Atlanta.

Aaron Gordon may be the peak of this archetype working out currently without being too lofty. Never quite an All-Star, but turning over time the sparks of stardom to become a vital cog on a title-contending team. For the ceiling, Jaylen Brown is what it looks like if everything hits right. Elite defender, has All-NBA upside and can be one of the top two scorers on a title team. Jonathan Kuminga fits into this mold as well, adjusting to a role he likely didn’t expect for himself under the guidance of the Golden State Warriors’ system.

Today’s Case

This brings us to Hamidou Diallo, not as lauded as these precedents as the #45 pick in his draft. Diallo is likely set up to be a reserve for the foreseeable future. However, it is unfair to Diallo to consider him a lost cause by any means. The energy and athleticism he showcases every time he touches the court are tantalizing. Despite only playing 18 minutes per game, he is second on the team in deflections, third in steals, fourth in loose balls recovered. His dynamic play especially shines in transition, where he is tied with Tyrese Maxey for tenth in the league in transition scoring efficiency at 71% effective field goal percentage, getting to the line once of every five transition possessions.

For anyone who is not a regular watcher of the Detroit Pistons, it may be easy to underrate the impact Hamidou Diallo can make on the court. Plenty of Pistons fans did just that when the trade was made on March 13, 2021, to swap out Svi Mykhailiuk. Since then Mykhailiuk has played for four teams while Diallo has endeared himself to his new fanbase. 

Statistical Comparison

Do not get me wrong, I am not alluding to an All-NBA trajectory for Diallo. However, there is plenty to like here. Here is a statistical comparison of these four players over the first five seasons per 36 minutes:

Smith (2005-2009): 15.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.6 blocks

Brown (2016-2021): 19.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.5 blocks

Gordon (2014-2019): 16.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.8 blocks

Diallo (2019-present): 16.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks

Diallo’s stats are not far off from what we see in these comp cases, even as they were all much higher-priority draft picks. Diallo has improved despite playing the least minutes (4,913 compared to 12,550, 9,339, and 9,500) and games (263 vs. 376, 337, and 341) of the group, lending to variability of performance as well. Importantly, though, the rebounding and steals numbers stand out as the 6’5” guard has made himself a consistent physical presence. Remember he is doing this in a tanking situation and imagine what he could bring to a winner, and with a clearer role in future seasons.

Efficiency was less than stellar overall early on. Despite being primarily a dunker, Smith did not clear 45 percent from the field until year 4. Gordon continued to chuck 3s even though they were not something he ever really mastered. Only Brown found his stride there and it is why his ceiling is the highest of the group. What was important for each was their team finding the role they fit in. Diallo giving up on the three-ball has been a blessing, with career-high true shooting that is above league average for the first time in his career even as his rate of scoring has increased.

Developmental Differences

Brown is a different animal given the impressive development of his shotmaking over his career. He was paired with elite talent early on in his career and found his spots from the start. Gordon, on the other hand, needed to move on from Orlando to Denver to find his role. No longer was he looked at as a foundational building block. He could be a fourth option on offense and an elite defender. Smith was helped by playing off of Al Horford where he could become a dunker, rebounder, and defender with solid passing chops.

What was paramount for both of them and what Detroit is doing with Diallo, is putting them alongside top-scoring options who are still willing to get others involved. Gordon is blossoming alongside Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Smith took off with the ascendance of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. For Diallo, fitting in with the core of Detroit as it grows or in a newer situation would be paramount to his development. Playing off of Bojan Bogdanovic has been a boon for Hamidou in particular, with their +6.9 net rating together being Detroit’s top duo of any that has played 250+ minutes this season.

But now, the future is unclear. Diallo is slated to miss the rest of the season with an ankle sprain. As an upcoming free agent, it is worth looking at what he has shown to both Detroit and others to get his new contract. When looking at this, it also sheds some insight into why writing off a project before seeing it through can come back to punish anyone in the league. This is the resume that Diallo is presenting to those who should sign him.

Potential Lows

When it comes to investing in this archetype of player, there will be highs and lows. The flashes of brilliance (more on those later) get scouts drooling. Then things like this happen:

Just a little too aggressive. Not quite sure how to get into position. When this happens in closer games that mean something, that is a quick way to get a hook. In fact, Diallo found himself regularly out of the rotation early in his tenure in Detroit. Dwane Casey wanted to develop him, but he also wanted it clear that trust is earned.

Sometimes there is too much spring. Other times, gambling gets you out of position. However, one of the most common issues is trusting athleticism over mechanics too often, and that leading to mistakes.

It is tough watching this and calling this play a failure. He outhustles everyone and the move at the rim is so smooth. However, if Hamidou Diallo did something less flashy on the drive, perhaps he could have converted the basket before the buzzer. That drives coaches crazy.

Other times, confidence goes too far. If this dunk connects, even the Minnesota faithful would have lost their minds. Diallo rose up and was met at the rim by a mountain of muscle. This is not the end of the world when this happens on occasion. But, if you get less than seven shots a game, if a few are ill-advised aggression into a defender much bigger than you could quickly lose those opportunities.

Defensive Positive

Negatives aside, there is so much potential on both ends of the ball. If this type of talent is cultivated the rewards jump off the page.

This play is borderline harassment. He survives the pick and switch. Using his nearly 7-foot wingspan he is able to eliminate the passing lane without even looking. And, as will be a common theme for the former Slam Dunk Contest winner, the end result typically sees him rim running. Being able to realistically put Hami on a power forward and point guard successfully in the same position showcases his versatility.

In niche situations, he can even cover some fives. Keeping the feet moving and staying in front of a barrelling Naz Reid has been an increasingly tougher assignment across the league this season. The verticality, though, is chef’s kiss. Two years ago Hami would have almost always ended that play with a foul. Instead, he stays straight up, forces the deflection, and keys the transition attack.

Getting the athleticism to truly work often shows in recovery. For most players, if they were caught in a pick and their man got free, the shot is not going to be contested by them. Instead of remaining a step behind Anthony Edwards, Diallo takes the road less traveled and volleyball spikes his shot at the rim.

This is why, on the defensive end, it is worth working with players in this mold. if they’re willing to put in the hard work, refining this is rewarding. Over the course of four plays we saw Hamidou Diallo guard all five positions. Switchability and disruption are teachable skills with the right physical tools. He has been held accountable on that end and it is starting to come together. It also allows him to often remain the offensive human highlight film.

Offensive Explosion

Different players take the reigns their athleticism in different ways. Hamidou Diallo becomes an acrobat and a rim murderer.

It is easy to forget that Diallo once won a Dunk Contest. The event has become something of an afterthought and at the time he was a second-round rookie. But watching what he does in-game, you get it real quick.

It is far more than that, though. Even up in the air, Diallo is able to contort his body around defenders and plays the glass well. This is not easy to do, but Hami does this at least once every time he is on the floor. Would you prefer a little less flash and perhaps a little more shooting (27.4 from beyond the arc for his career)? Sure. But this is fun too.

For Diallo, it is a lot of cuts, putbacks, oops, and transition. He is a capable passer and is unselfish with the ball. His teammates love him and he is showing that hard work can absolutely pay off.

Where Do We Go From Here

Diallo being a looming free agent presents some questions for a team with the worst record in the league. As a non-shooter, it is tough to start him alongside the bigs and Ivey who need spacing. Off the bench, there is a little more room for him to work as he provides a release valve as often the most athletic player on the floor with just enough skill to get things done.

This is why it is a blessing and a curse for teams to develop this kind of player. Shooting is often the swing skill. If Diallo could shoot he would be a starter for plenty of team in the league. As is, he is likely a career rotation player, or maybe fifth starter in an ideal spot. If he goes to another team fans who have not kept up with his Pistons tenure (and, fair) will likely roll their eyes. Then he will check in during a second quarter of a November game. He will swallow up a block and drive in transition. He will set Twitter (if it still exists) ablaze with a hammer over a hapless defender.

These kinds of players have value. Diallo brings it every night, and has turned himself into a player who deserves all the minutes he gets. Even when his teammates are in the season’s doldrums, Diallo is always ready for the smoke. That plus the defense, dunking, and energy make him, and his ilk, some of the most fun prospects to take a chance on. Teams with a space on the bench should absolutely be calling his number.

The post Why Your Team Should Sign Hamidou Diallo appeared first on Swish Theory.