Jimmy Butler Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/jimmy-butler/ Basketball Analysis & NBA Draft Guides Thu, 17 Apr 2025 18:18:56 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9 https://i0.wp.com/theswishtheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Jimmy Butler Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/jimmy-butler/ 32 32 214889137 Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2025/04/warriors-rockets-matchup-analysis-tactics-and-predictions/ Thu, 17 Apr 2025 17:08:25 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=14607 4-1, 4-1, 4-3, 4-2. Those are the playoff matchup scores between Steph Curry’s Warriors and the Houston Rockets. Given that the four defeats occurred in five years, it’s no wonder Rockets fans have been inflicted with a thorough case of fast-acting CTE. Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else ... Read more

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4-1, 4-1, 4-3, 4-2. Those are the playoff matchup scores between Steph Curry’s Warriors and the Houston Rockets. Given that the four defeats occurred in five years, it’s no wonder Rockets fans have been inflicted with a thorough case of fast-acting CTE.

Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

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Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2025/02/warriors-unlock-new-deadly-lineup/ Fri, 28 Feb 2025 16:31:16 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=14425 After that whirlwind of a trade deadline, it was hard to predict the future of the Warriors in the short and long term. Typically, acquiring a player of Jimmy Butler‘s caliber is unequivocally improving. The depth Golden State had to fork over, and the nature of his exit from Miami, left as many questions as ... Read more

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After that whirlwind of a trade deadline, it was hard to predict the future of the Warriors in the short and long term. Typically, acquiring a player of Jimmy Butler‘s caliber is unequivocally improving. The depth Golden State had to fork over, and the nature of his exit from Miami, left as many questions as answers.

The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

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Heat in the Zone: How Miami Locked in to Take Game 2 https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/06/heat-in-the-zone-how-miami-locked-in-to-take-game-2/ Mon, 05 Jun 2023 14:56:01 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=6996 The Miami Heat managed to steal a game in the infamous altitude against the Denver Nuggets and even the NBA Finals at a game apiece. I’m sure you heard about it. Game Two was a classic, and will be remembered by those who watched it long after the conclusion of this series. Nikola Jokic, surprise ... Read more

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The Miami Heat managed to steal a game in the infamous altitude against the Denver Nuggets and even the NBA Finals at a game apiece. I’m sure you heard about it. Game Two was a classic, and will be remembered by those who watched it long after the conclusion of this series. Nikola Jokic, surprise surprise, was incredible yet again, putting up 41 points on 28 shots while displaying his trademark, lumbering grace and pillowy soft touch. And the shot-making displays weren’t exclusive to the Joker. Miami and Denver combined to make over 44% of their 3-pointers, serving up reminder after reminder of the unfathomable talent on display in the NBA.

The eyes of the basketball world are trained on the Finals. Obviously. And we all have the same 48 minutes of game-tape to analyze and over-analyze. So, unique observations, at this point in the season, are few and far between – with that said, here are a couple of Game Two tidbits I found to be both interesting and key to a Heat victory.

Zone Defense

Ah yes, the infamous Miami zone vs. Denver’s unstoppable offense. Whether you believe zone defense at the NBA-level is an affront to professional sports or not, this was a matchup hyped up by the nerdiest among us. The Heat have played the most zone defense in the NBA in both this regular season and post-season. Zone is part of their Dark Magic, concocted in Pat Riley’s sunken living room.

Denver meanwhile…well, I’ll just borrow the words from CBS Sports writer Jack Maloney: “In the regular season, [the Nuggets] were second in the league in zone offense, scoring 1.156 points per possession, and in the playoffs that mark has jumped to a stunning 1.385 points per possession.”

This is less of a mystery, of course. The Nuggets are led by a lab-designed zone-buster, a 7-foot-tall wizard with soft hands, sharp vision, and a lethal mid-range jump-shot. Step one: Put that guy in the middle of your zone offense. Step Two: Profit! This, prior to the series, was much of the discussion around Miami’s zone defense and how Denver might counter it: “Well, they have Nikola Jokic, so, yeah.”

While excellent analysis, that misses one thing: The Heat do not play your run-of-the-mill zone. When you hear “zone defense” in the NBA, you imagine a red-faced head coach so perturbed by his team’s effort that he says “[expletive] this, just play some 2-3. You guys remember that from high school, right?” Well, that is not Erik Spoelstra and the Heat.

Spo’s squad change their zone, seemingly, from possession to possession, but a principle often prevails. Deny dribble penetration in the middle without sacrificing corner threes. How? Have your weak-side guards flock to the ball-side, no matter where they are. An obvious but difficult challenge, one that places heavy onus on the wings of the operation. Here’s a possession from the first half of Game Two, one that ends with an Aaron Gordon three:

That’s an outcome that the Heat will surely take. Rather than have Jamal Murray fire up a corner 3-pointer, a below average shooter in Gordon is taking one, lightly contested. That play exhibits the general structure the Heat rely on when going zone in these playoffs, specifically vs. Denver’s bench units.

But in the fourth quarter, they trotted out a zone agains Nikola Jokic & co., and boy did it make my brain hurt. Well, me and the Nuggets:

Gabe Vincent does a hell of a job fronting Jokic in the first clip, which was the tenet of Miami’s zone concepts in the fourth quarter. On a subsequent possession, Denver decides to let Jokic handle it up top, a much easier path to getting the ball in his hands. Welp, that results in Vincent applying extreme ball pressure and forcing a (questionable) charge.

What even is that zone? I’m damn near tempted to call it the world’s strangest-looking box-and-one, though in reality it’s more of a 2-1-2 where the ‘1’ is interchangeable. Just take a look at this possession, where Caleb Martin and Vincent switch the Jokic assignment mid-possession:

Zone defense, once you get past the high school level, is polarizing. And I get the argument; it feels almost cheap to remove the sanctity of guarding your man and taking pride in shutting him down from defense. “That ain’t basketball at its purest,” the detractors shout. But even the haters have to admit it’s a beautiful thing to watch the Heat maintain their core principles no matter what kind of funky zone they’re throwing out there.

Here, the Nuggets get creative with it, and screen for Jokic after he catches it off an inbounds, but the Heat snuff it out:

If any other team had the otherworldly gall to play zone against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, then their center certainly would’ve stepped up on that creative ball-screen from Denver. But Bam Adebayo and the Heat scoff at the notion. Why, so Jokic and Gordon can essentially run their famous inverted pick-and-roll? Or so Jokic can hit a devious back-cutter as the rim protector vacates the area? Nope. Erik Spoelstra’s guards are going to prevent dribble penetration – even when Jokic is on the floor, whether that means fronting him or not – and his wings are going to handle their business (although Kyle Lowry’s job here is admittedly made easier by Jimmy Butler’s recovery.)

I’ll say it. It’s a treat to watch the Miami Heat play zone defense, even on the biggest stage. Especially against one of the most fearsome zone-busters this game has ever known.


One more thing, really quick. As important as Miami’s zone defense was (a huge reason the Nuggets’ offense hovered around a pedestrian 111 offensive rating with Jokic on the court), their outside shooting was far more crucial. 49% from deep on 35 attempts? On the road? Especially when, per Cleaning the Glass, a minuscule 14% of their shots came inside the restricted area, meaning they were entirely reliant on jump-shooting? As boring as this may sound, there cannot be an explanation for Miami’s victory that doesn’t start with, “They shot the hell out of the rock.”

There are a few reasons why that happened, other than the pure shot-making talent 8-seeds are now dripping with. I tweeted a cut-up of all their 3-point attempts…

…and surmised, among other things, that the Heat successfully targeted Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. You can draw your own conclusions, but it’s clear that Miami challenged those two to talk through countless screening actions and make long closeouts. Neither one did either task successfully. Aside from Bruce Brown, perhaps, the whole Denver squad was sloppy rotating and closing out to shooters. There’s a reason Jeff Green and Head Coach Mike Malone each ripped their team’s effort in postgame pressers.

But, to give the Heat some credit here, I thought they forced sloppy closeouts and missed rotations by paying careful attention to their spacing. Miami’s shooters consistently spaced multiple feet beyond the arc, and it caused problems for the Nuggets. Roll the tape:

Spacing farther away from the line not only creates longer closeouts for defenders, many of which various Nuggets botched repeatedly in their Game Two defeat. It also creates more opportunities for shooters to move without the ball – I don’t mean sprinting around screens like Steph Curry, the most commonly recognized form of off-ball-movement.

Rather, I’m talking about the art of subtly relocating, an art that Miami’s role players have perfected: Just look at Max Strus in that first clip. Relocating along the perimeter is about reading two players at once, and instinctually moving to a spot that makes the defender’s job harder but the passer’s job easier. Stus & co. did a great job of that in Game Two, and it was the cherry on top of a…Poop Sundae for Denver’s defenders. When the Nuggets weren’t busy closing out to shooters recklessly and jumping at every ball-fake, they were losing their assignments before then, unaware of perimeter relocations.

Yes, the Miami Heat shot the lights out, and that is the reason they were able to tie the series against the rightfully favored Nuggets. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Erik Spoelstra’s squad did all the little things right, executing their offensive and defensive game-plan on Sunday night. Whether they were setting up 3-point bombs or falling back into zone defense, the Heat certainly sweat the small stuff in Game Two. And it was beautiful to watch.

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The Behind the Scenes Skill Developers https://theswishtheory.com/analysis/2022/11/the-behind-the-scenes-skill-developers/ Wed, 23 Nov 2022 20:15:50 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=4153 The Unheralded Heroes of Basketball When focusing on player development, many look at the programs players have been a part of: high schools, colleges, and even NBA teams get critiqued on how well they develop players. However, a group of people across the US and abroad have made their careers in developing skills and being ... Read more

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The Unheralded Heroes of Basketball

When focusing on player development, many look at the programs players have been a part of: high schools, colleges, and even NBA teams get critiqued on how well they develop players. However, a group of people across the US and abroad have made their careers in developing skills and being the backbone of many athletes across the NBA. The unheralded heroes of basketball, skills trainers spend countless hours of work with professional and amateur players. Skills trainers are often known for their summer pro runs or camps, but it is not the moments in the bright lights that make trainers so impactful.

In this piece we will learn what makes skills trainers so effective and how they go about helping these athletes become the best pros possible. For insight, I interviewed three different pro skills trainers at different levels of the game on their process and their relationships with their clients. David Lam is a trainer with Blair Academy in New Jersey and has worked with players like Immanuel Quickley and 5-star Duke commit Mackenzie Mgbako. Shaun Belbey is a player development coach with OTE’s City Reapers, and is a former Syracuse University basketball player who has trained players like Isaiah Thomas and Danny Green. Aaron Miller is a Houston-based skills trainer who has trained players like Jimmy Butler, Patrick Beverley and Collin Sexton. For full disclosure, he was also once my trainer, back when my hoop dreams were alive and well (they are now dead and gone). All three of these trainers have different perspectives and approaches, and all have seen success in their work. Their insight was essential in getting a well-rounded view of the skills training space and their process.

Mutual Connections

With many skills trainers across the nation specializing in different aspects of the game, players have a wide variety of potential partnerships for training. However, this relationship is unique to most other trainers in their career, as a team often provides them with outside interests and a forced connection. This luxury of being able to formulate unique relationships is a two-way street. “If [a trainer has] the luxury of selecting [their] clients, [they’re] already way ahead of the game,” said Shaun Belbey.

Private trainers can work with athletes personally and understand the players’ habits at a level as deep as their teams. Each player has a different learning style, and with so many skills trainers, it is easier to find someone that they gel with. “Everyone has their own perspective, theories, and mindsets on how players can improve,” said Aaron Miller. “Whatever works for [one] player might not work for the next; find the trainer that fits you.” The one-on-one workouts and long hours allow for fine-tuning of areas of a player’s game that the teams may deem optional. However, skills trainers are able to spend the time to pinpoint weaknesses and freely train improvements.

Creating a Training Plan

When training a professional athlete in a team setting, many workouts are team-goal-oriented. However, when working with skills trainers, players can work on aspects of their game that THEY feel needs improvement. This is because the majority of this training occurs in the off-season when players work independently to improve their game. Most of the time, players will approach trainers with some outlook: a series of skills they want to have developed and goals for the upcoming season.

David Lam sees this initial meeting of the minds as a way to get a baseline of understanding for the player’s tendencies and current abilities. “Determine it myself first through talking with the player and seeing where they are with various skills after the first workout,” said Lam, “then talk to coaches if feasible.” Trainers will then look back to the coaches for guidance on how to deal with the player, the team’s goals for the player, and areas of focus. “The coaching staff is an excellent resource to provide direct feedback on exactly what the team is looking for the player to improve on,” said Miller.

Belbey, however, goes about the meeting of the minds with his clients in a unique manner. “[I] typically create a SWOT analysis. I will make one & also have the player make one to see what we agree & disagree on,” said Belbey. A SWOT analysis, standing for “Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat”, is often used in consulting or investing to determine a business or idea’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats moving forward. Here, Belbey uses it to get a better understanding of the player, what they can improve to be, and what their weaknesses are. Having that mutual understanding with the player is key to having success with one another.

Developing Professionals

When players approach trainers, they often have two parts of their game they want to see improved: shooting and ball-handling. With how the NBA is trending, shooting is something all players “must be able to do now,” per Shaun Belbey. Aaron Miller believes that players should focus on guarding multiple positions just as much as they focus on shooting. These two attributes have become very important in today’s game.

While many players often go through “big picture” drills, sometimes there is work on micro-skills. Lam feels like focusing on micro-skills overwhelms a player and tries to fix certain things only when necessary. Miller feels like tweaking micro-skills is an accumulation of work over years of progress. “Micro skill refinement is the focus, but it is also a variable that is tough to measure in the short-term,” he said. “Continuously circling back during the summer and season for years and opportunity can provide tangible evidence.” This constant work year in and year out helps drive progress for players, and when the micro skills are nailed down, the rest comes easier. However, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither are NBA players.

Training Styles

When in the gym, it is time to drill. However, there is no correct way to approach this. Many trainers have different styles and approaches, and players react to these styles in their own ways. David Lam’s style involves “a lot of trial and error.” “I’ll make stuff up on the spot a lot and see if it helps the player understand the skill better,” said Lam. Lam likes to give players fairly similar drills, with different points of emphasis. When the drills get too easy, Lam will throw in random practice. “Control what you can control,” Lam says, using the phrase as his mantra. This approach is what Lam takes going into training, and is the approach he tries to take with his clients. By having them control what they can control, Lam shifts their focus to development rather than immediate results.

Belbey goes about training players a bit differently. “Game skills, game results,” says Belbey. Belbey tailors his drills for each player, based on their aforementioned understanding of Belbey’s SWOT analysis. Belbey practices in game situations with his drills, often involving defense in live game-like reps, such as attacking off the catch for a wing or quick post decisions for a big man. Focusing on what they will be doing in game helps players become the best in their role, rather than trying to have everybody learn how to play like a superstar. “Players who are the 8th-9th man on a team do not need to be focusing on 1v1 isolation moves with 19 dribbles in one spot,” he emphasized.

Aaron Miller begins his training by first going through the player’s game film. Finding the sets, actions and tendencies of the player are keys for Miller when it comes to formulating beneficial drills. However, he sees this as an opportunity to sharpen mindset, not just basketball skills. “I believe in switching mindsets while working out,” Miller explained. 

“For example; some days I would like to make three in a row at each spot to work on momentum and getting in rhythm. Some days to end the workout by making six out of eight shot attempts to build consistency. Same shots, just a different mind frame.” Miller also employs similar aspects as Belbey and Lam, tailoring practices to a player’s niche while attempting to develop a new fold or two to their game every off-season. This slow outlier development while focusing on the player’s niche is what Miller believes helps players stick in the league.

Here we see three slightly different training styles, all effective in their way and all effective with different people. This is the tale of skills trainers, as just like teams, each trainer has a different style, approach, and mindset that they employ in their training. However, it is clear that the goals of primary skill development and simulating game situations are two keys in pro development.

Pro Runs

Everybody’s favorite part about the off-season, pro runs allow players to test out their recent improvements against their peers in a semi-structured full-game setting. The yearly feature that has given us things like Hoodie Melo, one-legged 3s from James Harden and the quote “Danuel House looks like the best player on the Rockets,” pro runs give players – and fans – an opportunity to see what has been added to their game, and what shouldn’t be.

The benefits of these runs have always been questioned, as there’s good reason to be a skeptic. However, the freedom these runs allow allows players to test their off-season work. “Runs during the summer are a great time to practice the things you have been working on,” said Shaun Belbey. “Never does anyone really tell someone not to do this or that during a run, unless its just something they should never do on the court.”

Aaron Miller ensures the players get put into game-like situations, so this doesn’t become an issue. “Every Pro Run that I have, players have to play out of certain sets and initiations before they go into their own thing.” Miller sets up a shot clock, has players shoot free throws, play in motions, and follow NBA rules in his pro runs. Simulating this experience puts players in game-like roles and situations so that players can test their craft in an in-game experience.

The Pro Trainer Space

Every time you log onto Instagram or Twitter, a new skills trainer explains how “adding these three finishing packages to your bag will make you a next-level player. These days, with an abundance of skills trainers, there are a lot of people with a lot of answers. “[There’s] not enough truth-tellers and too much clout chasing,” says David Lam. A rather intimate profession, skill development is often built on trust, accountability, and work ethic. Being able to tell the truth to players will help them in the long run. We saw University of Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson echo this statement recently, stating in an interview, “I do not want to build up a bad shooter’s confidence.” Being honest with players about who they are, what they can add to their game, and what they can’t, is the only way to truly buy into developing in the best manner possible. This is something that the development sector of basketball from youth to pro can improve on.

However, as the pro trainer space grows, so does opportunity. Many skills trainers see opportunities with teams based on their clientele and access to new technology. Programs like HomeCourtAI, which helps map the court and track player movement, Kinexon, which tracks joint and muscle movement and rehabilitation, and NOAH, a shot arc and location tracker, have benefitted both teams and private trainers in improving training quality and impact. With so much data coming out of training sessions, it feels neglectful to not employ this in a way that benefits player development. Luckily, with more access and more programs coming out yearly, trainers and coaches can unlock a new level to player development.

A Personal Profession

Lam believes having a connection is an integral part of being a skills trainer. Spending so much time with their clients, skills trainers need to have personal relationships with them. “The better my relationship with them, the more I can hold a player accountable.” Belbey similarly echoed this statement. “Having a great relationship with them off the court will help you on the court because you know they will trust you.” Accountability and trust go a long way in the basketball space, especially when dealing with development. By establishing this with their players, skills trainers can help them become better professionals on and off the court.

Aaron Miller’s take on his relationships with his players was a bit more passionate. “The major part for me in this point of my career is the players level of focus. I am not looking for a 22-year-old that is just happy to be in the NBA [or a] 32-year old that is content. I am constantly looking for clients willing to push the limits to further their careers and find ways to improve constantly.” I’ve seen this firsthand with Miller and his clients, and how personal his relationships are.

After the Portland Trailblazers v New York Knicks Summer League game at Thomas & Mack Center this last July, Miller told me to follow him around the stadium. We had just watched one of his clients, Josh Gray, get his second straight DNP of the tournament. It was now 11:30 pm on a Monday, and the last of the fans were funneling out of the stadium. We walked to the exit, where we found Gray’s family, waiting for him to come out the locker room. When we met with Gray, we walked around the UNLV campus to the practice gym, where Miller, Gray and Gray’s two little brothers worked, fine-tuning Gray’s game for the next hour and a half. Despite having told me “I’m on vacation” earlier that day, Miller spent time late into the night helping his friend and client. While Gray did not play the rest of the tournament, this dedication to his client at any given time stood out to me. “You have to be SICK about getting better, or we won’t speak the same language,” said Miller.

Conclusion

Pro skills trainers spend countless hours with players throughout the year, fine-tuning their craft and preparing them for the upcoming season. Many also act as contracted scouts or video coordinators, sending their clients game clips or instructions on approaching their matchup for the night. A group of people often spotlighted for their off-season gatherings or high-profile training highlights, these trainers take the time to understand their clients at a deeper and more personal level, to get the most out of their clients and themselves. “My life is my job. These players are my body of work,” emphasized Miller. “It is so much bigger than basketball.” As the season kicks off, trainers can see their body of work in action, watching their players employ off-season teachings to take their game to the next level.

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