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Entering his third season with the Mavericks, Josh Green’s path to positive value is becoming clearer by the day. Green is extremely quick laterally and expertly mirrors ballhandlers all over the court. The 6’5″ guard is a tenacious defender, often picking opponent guards up full court and chasing them around the court. Green is especially adept at making defensive plays in transition: just look at him sneak up on Nemanja Bjelica to regain possession here for the Mavs.

Green is a great defensive playmaker in general, leveraging his crazy quick hands and excellent anticipation to rack up 1.54 steals per 70 possessions, good for the 32nd most among qualified players in 2021-22. Look at the anticipation and hand-eye coordination that make this steal against Steph Curry possible. Not many players across the league are capable of making this play.

While Green still gets caught by screens here and there, he’s shown enough possessions of good screen navigation to make me confident he could soon be a big plus there too (hence the inclusion of the skill up top). As an off-ball defender, Green has displayed excellent instincts and often pokes the ball away from the nail or one pass away. He’s got great defensive feel, rarely missing a rotation and using his anticipation to jump passing lanes. When you put together good defensive instincts AND great physical tools, you get a guy that has an All-Defensive ceiling, and that is exactly what I see in Green even if the minutes are not yet there.

Once he forces a turnover, Green is a weapon in transition, beating his opponents across the floor and utilizing his vertical athleticism to finish strong. The rest of Green’s offensive game, on the other hand, is still a work in progress. As on defense, Green is a ball of energy on the offensive end, crashing the class with force, but also can look jittery with the ball in his hands at times (Mavs fans refer to it as ‘hot-potato’). He’s a really good passer, quick decision-maker and cutter but held back by his limitations as a scorer. Through roughly two seasons thus far, he’s shot 31.7% from three on only 1 attempt per game (2.38 per 70 poss.). This past postseason, he found himself out of the rotation once the Suns decided to pay absolutely no attention to him on offense. Their defense essentially left him unguarded and were able to shrink the court, making generating any sort of offense in the halfcourt extremely difficult. I’ve touched on it before, but in my eyes, Green’s struggles from three and scoring may be more mental than anything. Green struggled with a short leash under Rick Carlisle, letting misses get to his head and discourage him from trying things on offense. With some regained confidence under Jason Kidd last year, Green was able to showcase a bit more, even posting a 10-assist game against the Trail Blazers.

From a purely mechanical view, Green’s shot doesn’t look too bad. His slight valgus collapse appears to have messed with his transfer of energy somewhat. He still has signs of it this year, but the transfer of energy seems cleaner (perhaps a product of a narrower base and more lift) and I’m interested in seeing the results.

If or when he can figure out the shot, everything else should fall into place rather nicely. As I mentioned earlier, he really is a pretty special passer, and forcing stronger closeouts from the defense consistently could allow him to attack them more and weaponize his passing further.

As far as self-creation goes, it’s pretty easily Green’s rawest skill as his handle is rudimentary and his lack of a left-hand greatly limits his finishing in the halfcourt (in addition to the shooting woes). It’s part of why I don’t really buy him as a ‘ball-handling’ option for the Mavs off the bench despite what some of the reports have suggested. Still, Green doesn’t need to be the one driving offense to have a positive impact; his role as a connector is what makes him special.

Conclusion

Josh Green’s breakout feels imminent. As his confidence continues to grow and more and more of those 3s start to fall, Green could quickly become one of the more valuable role players in the entire league. He already plays excellent defense both on and off the ball, is a one-man wrecking ball in transition, has shown to be a willing and capable passer, and is an intelligent mover off the ball. Once that shot starts to go down and he commands stronger closeouts, he’ll be the perfect connective piece for Luka Doncic and the Mavs.

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