New York Liberty. Las Vegas Aces. A’ja Wilson. Breanna Stewart. All-Stars up and down the roster on the grandest stage, the WNBA Finals. Tap in, indeed. 

We have been treated to this matchup five times this season, including the Commissioner’s Cup Finals. The closest game was decided by 11 points. The regular season series was split, two games a piece. This is about as close as it gets, and the blowouts are indicative of one thing:

No matter how great of opposition either team faces, these truly all-time great rosters that can obliterate anyone. 

“What have we witnessed this season that could be predictive of the epic battles ahead?” I am so glad you asked.

Guard Play

Despite the MVPs at the top of the marquee, the depth of stardom goes much further here. There are six former All-Stars across these two backcourts. That is simply astounding. Even better, they all play the game in such a unique way that the mixture makes for artistry on the court. 

Seafoam SZN

Over the four regular-season meetings, Sabrina Ionescu led all players in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Even better, she was brilliantly efficient, shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 52.9 from distance on 8.5 attempts per game. While a polarizing player, it is impossible to argue with that effectiveness. Forget the Kobe comparisons, she is approaching levels of fellow Bay Area great Stephen Curry.  

While she is a dynamic passer, much of that burden has been lifted from her shoulders by Courtney Vandersloot this season. As is commonplace at this point, Sloot led the league in assists for the seventh time in her career. She is an unparalleled floor general who unselfishly bends the surroundings to her will as if she is in fifth gear. 

While not an All-Star, Marine Johannes will be on full display in this series. She is a human highlight reel and casual fans checking in for the Finals will be blown away by some of the things she attempts. 

Blazing Aces

Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum are a three-headed monster that no one can really prepare for. There are only so many guard/wing defenders you can throw on the court at one time without exposing yourself down low to the best player in the world. And that is the Aces problem in an extremely simplified nutshell. 

Young was the leading scorer for the Aces in this season’s series (17.8 points per game) and shot 57.9 percent from distance on 4.8 attempts per game. The evolution of her game in the last two seasons under coach Becky Hammon has been transformational for Vegas. It one of the focal points in this matchup specifically, as she is often where the Liberty are forced to try to hide the weakest defender on the floor. 

Kelsey Plum has not been the same level of supernova this season as the last, but that is not to say she has been less than elite. However, the comparison of stat lines for the season and in this series could end up making or breaking Vegas:

• Season: 18.7 points / 4.5 assists / 2.4 rebounds / 1.1 steals / 47.7/38.9/91.2 shooting splits

• Vs. NYL: 14.3 points / 4.0 assists / 2.3 rebounds / 0.8 steals / 39.3/34.8/100 shooting splits

Simply put, for the Aces to win she needs to be better. Even if better is just taking fewer shots and picking her spots better, that is fine too. So far this postseason, Plum has been better than those efficiency numbers. However, she is also averaging as many assists as turnovers, so something has to give. 

Then there is Chelsea Gray. We have reached a point where “Point Gawd” actually feels like underselling just what Gray is. Perhaps the maker of the toughest shots in the league, Gray is clutch. No moment is too big for her and on any given night she can lead the team in scoring while also dropping 10 dimes a game. No matter what answer you throw in her direction, she changes the questions.  

Defensive Dynamos

Not to focus solely on the offensive side of the ball, these are two of the top three defensive units in the league as well. Both boast a sub-100 defensive rating. Whether it be Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones, A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, or Alysha Clark, any of these could be the best defender in this series. 

Clark won Sixth Player of the Year in large part due to the defense she brings to the table. She is the quintessential role player who can also just erase someone on offense and will be tasked with doing just that in this series. 

Laney has been much more than this throughout the postseason. She was arguably the most important player for this team in the last round. However, she will absolutely be thrown on one of the aforementioned three elite guards for Vegas and be tasked with trying to slow them down. 

Beyond the top of the food chain, Kayla Thornton deserves a shout-out here. Long one of the few players for the Wings that knew that side of the ball mattered, Thornton is finally liberated to not be the only great defender on her team. Her reward: A’ja Wilson for 10 to 15 minutes per night. 

The Third MVP

Even beyond the last two players we will talk about, there are other MVP winners on these rosters. Unfortunately, one of them (Candace Parker) only appeared in one meeting this season and is unlikely to be cleared to play in the Finals. It is hard to say she will be missed for Vegas as she has only played 18 games this season. Vegas knows what they are more without her than with her. The other, however, is coming off a blistering hot run in the Semi-Finals. 

Jonquel Jones saw her former team across the court and mercilessly finished them. Over the four games, the former MVP averaged 15 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Importantly, she is the defensive anchor for this team, despite Stewart being named to the All-Defensive First Team and Laney being named to the Second Team. 

If the Liberty are to contain A’ja Wilson, it will come down to the duo of Jones and Stewart. They have made life hard for her during the regular season (relatively). Jones, unlike her frontcourt partner, has not yet won a ring. This will be her third Finals appearance. In 2019, she had an up-and-down series against the Washington Mystics. Last season for the Sun against these Aces, Jones scored in double figures every game but averaged just over eight boards per game. 

Jones left Connecticut for this opportunity, with this group, on this stage. She is thirsty for the peak of her profession and now is the time to shine. In the Commission Cup Finals, she earned MVP honors with 16 points, 15 rebounds, and two blocks. More of that would go a long way. 

Battle of Modern GOATs

We have arrived at the main event. There is no doubt about the fact that A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are in the midst of careers that will go down as two of the best in league history. 

Between the two of them, they already have three rings, two Finals MVPs, four MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards, and 11 All-WNBA team appearances (counting this year’s yet-to-be-announced honors), among plenty of other accolades. Neither has even turned 30. 

All that being said, the regular season series saw both struggle by their lofty standards. Here are the numbers. 

Wilson:

Season: 22.8 points / 9.5 rebounds / 2.2 blocks / 1.4 steals / 55.7/31.0/81.2 shooting splits

Vs. NYL: 17.3 points / 6.5 rebounds / 1.8 blocks / 0.5 steals / 48.1/0/86.4 shooting splits

Stewart:

Season: 23.0 points / 9.3 rebounds / 1.6 blocks / 1.5 steals / 46.5/35.5/85.1 shooting splits

Vs. LVA: 18.0 points / 7.5 rebounds / 2.3 blocks / 1.8 steals / 35.6/22.2/87.5 shooting splits

Throughout this postseason, they have looked like their normal selves. There is clear reason for the accolades they have earned. If I were to bet, I think both ascend to another level during this series. 

The last time these two met in the Finals, it was all Stewie. She started off the series with a 37-point, 15-rebound, four-block domination and never looked back. Both have grown drastically since then, but Wilson is notably on a whole other level now. Watching them tussle for dominance is what this league has been building to ever since those Bubble Finals. It is what the WNBA is about. Watching the two best players in the league play for the top prize is a dream come true. 

Prediction

This is going to be fun. Both coaches have condensed their rotations thoroughly, Sandy Brondello has played five players in the postseason more than 11 minutes per game. Becky Hammon, six. The chess moves may take them beyond that in this series and that will be fascinating. 

Part of me will be rooting for the Aces. Since getting into the league, A’ja Wilson has been my second favorite player, and watching her continue to rack up the accolades would be wonderful. But this feels like the New York Liberty’s time. They have gelled to perfection as the season has gone along. They beautifully weathered the challenges of the Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun. 

New York Liberty over Las Vegas Aces in five. Sabrina Ionescu Finals MVP. She has been too much of a problem in this matchup and is made for this kind of stage. Ever since the All-Star break she has been a supernova.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. The final preview is finally here and it is for the reigning champions, the title favorites, the true face of the league. Of course, I am referring to the Las Vegas Aces. Somehow, even after a stunning season, the team got even better. But before looking forward, let’s look back.

Almost everything went absolutely perfectly for the Las Vegas Aces a season ago. The featured player section this week should surprise no one, so we will get into A’ja Wilson’s accomplishments shortly. 

2022 Recap

Kelsey Plum exploded, realizing the potential she always hinted at with her play. She finished second in the league in scoring, posting a line of 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game. In her first All-Star season, she was the All-Star MVP. 

Speaking of realized potential, goodness gracious Jackie Young took a step forward. She posted career highs across the board:  15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Encouraged by new coach Becky Hammon, Young realized she was allowed to step behind the arc and let it fly. She attempted a career-high 3.4 per game and converted at a 43.1 percent clip. That is the second-best mark in the league for anyone attempting at least three per game (minimum 10 games). 

Chelsea Gray is the last player that got significant minutes that truly stood out, but man did she. The Point Gawd reached another stratosphere in the postseason, leading the team in points (21.7), assists (7.0), and steals (1.2) per game. This was the true difference-maker for the team overall. As the benches shortened and they were going for their first title, Gray stepped into a role she had not been asked to fill all season. 

Benches shortened is not a misnomer by the way. Only six players for the Aces logged more the 8.5 minutes per game in the postseason. That seventh player, Dearica Hamby, was once an integral part of this organization. The news around her treatment and departure from Vegas soured some of the good feelings. As there is still an ongoing investigation it is tough to comment broadly. But the Big Guard definitely deserved much better. 

Best in the World

If there was any debate or doubt, A’ja Wilson confirmed last season that she is the best player in the world. Yes, Breanna Stewart is tremendous and will continue to challenge the throne. But Wilson’s campaign was unassailable. 

Awards season was basically Aces season and Wilson brought home two of her own. The former Gamecock won her second MVP and her first Defensive Player of the Year, definitively outlining her two-way dominance. During the regular season, she averaged 19.5 points (fifth), 9.4 rebounds (second), 2.1 assists, 1.9 blocks (first), and 1.4 steals (12th) per game. At long last, like Jackie Young, Wilson was unleashed to let it fly from beyond the arc. The result, chef’s kiss.

Wilson truly blocked out the sun on one end of the court while remaining the definitive best player on the offensive end. Yes, Plum averaged more points per game. Even she would bow to the M’VP and acknowledge she was able to thrive because of the gravity of her teammate and the offensive game plan. Wilson is such a brilliant player that makes everyone around them better and is a true culture setter. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Dearica Hamby, Ji-Su Park, Iliana Rupert, Theresa Plaisance, Aisha Sheppard

In: Candace Parker, Alysha Clark

Re-Signed: Sydney Colson, Kiah Stokes

While this looks like a lot of names out and very few names in, that is exceptionally misleading. Hamby is an enormous loss but was almost completely out of the rotation during the title run. Again, the circumstances around her departure need to be looked into far more, but that is not for me to speculate. Sheppard, Plaisance, Park, and Rupert combined to log 85 minutes in the postseason. 

Adding Candace Parker and Alysha Clark, though, took the term super team to another level entirely. Clark is easy to forget about, as she was not quite herself coming off an injury last season. However, if she can get closer to form, having her as your sixth-best player is wild. Adding her to the third-best defensive unit that was lacking a lockdown wing is unfair. 

There is nothing else to say about Candace Parker that has not already been said. One of the absolute best of all time is joining the reigning champions to pursue another ring. She has shown in her two seasons in Chicago that she is willing to sacrifice individual numbers for team success. There is so much playmaking on this team already, and Parker only pushes that further. This team is going to be a joy to watch. 

Prediction

It should come as no surprise if Las Vegas finds themselves back in the WNBA Finals. Becky Hammon came to this organization (and stiff-armed NBA rumors this offseason) to build the next dynasty. Adding two championship-level pieces to their existing core is a home run. While they will walk away with less hardware individually this season, they will be back in the Finals.

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