Swish is here to help you, as we asked our contributors who impressed: who showed you something new, whether new moves or new tactics, new shooting form…what have you. We filtered through the mirages to find the tangible, items that just might remain relevant come regular season start.

Without further ado, here are Swish Theory’s Summer League 2023 takeaways.

Matt Powers – Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced feel for manipulation 

Pick and roll play is not a staple of Sharpe’s game, at least not up to this point, but Summer League was potentially an inflection point. Sharpe accumulated 36 pick and rolls in his four games, his nine per game five times higher than his rookie season. 

It was not simply the usage, however, but also the execution. Sharpe will still not be mistaken for a Nash-ian playmaker, at only 2.5 assists per game in Summer League after only 1.2 as a rookie, but advanced understanding of how to set up screens to deploy his own scoring speaks to his star upside regardless.

In the below Summer League clips we see Shaedon:

1. Wait to start his dribble until screen set, initiate with hang dribble then in-and-out to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
2. Jab to set up screen, hesi to set up re-screen, reject to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
3. Cross between the legs into using screen, gets skinny to reset into pull-up in one motion
4. Set up hand-off to then re-establish more favorable screen, wide open three

This variety of screen usage masks Sharpe’s intention between drive and pull-up, and when his and his screener’s defenders have to lock in more intently at the point of screen, Shaedon has the potential to draw in additional help with his supreme scoring gravity.

Sharpe’s assist rate skyrocketed from nearly non-existent to typical of a young scoring guard when Dame sat last year. Should he get even more leeway to create in the backcourt, Sharpe could continue to chain combos to become not just a deadly scorer but overall playmaker.

Lucas Kaplan – Leonard Miller willing to use size to his advantage

Leonard Miller might have the most interesting development path from the 2023 class to me. There is an idea, to which I’ve heard arguments both for and against, that he has outlier movement skills and a ceiling far more enticing, due to that trait, than a second-round draft slot would suggest.

I’m not here to debate just how special his fluidity is at 6’11 and 19 years old. No matter where you fall on Miller, though, that’s part of the sell. Our very own Avinash Chauhan wrote an excellent, pre-draft piece on the young Canadian and why we could be looking at a steal of the draft should he fall outside the lottery (which he did). One point made there was that an athlete this adaptable, this unique, should not be limited by factors of role projection – in other words, we shouldn’t force the limits of our own imagination on him.

Regardless, I’ll be fascinated to see if the processing ever fully unlocks Miller’s potential on both ends, a conundrum that was on full display in Las Vegas. Imagine Miller playing ‘Monkey in the Middle’, for example – his combination of size and athleticism would make him a nightmarish player to try to complete a pass over.

But take a play like this, where Miller is tasked with tagging the roller as the ‘low man’ on the weak-side:

You just don’t see any of those special movement skills or fierce athleticism that may eventually make him a devilish disruptor on defense. It’s a robotic slide over to the paint, then a basic closeout to the corner that is too late to prevent a clean 3-point look. Miller looks, respectfully, more like a YMCA coach showing how it’s down than a preternaturally gifted athlete.

Combine plays like that with holding the ball too long or missing cutters on offense, and his play from Summer League, to me, was fully representative of the MIller conundrum: In order to unlock what we know he is capable of, his basketball brain has to catch up to his body. I will be enthralled by this development in the coming years for Miller.

But as you may have guessed, given the prompt for this roundtable, Miller was often impressive in his minutes in Vegas. It wasn’t just the shot-making, though making seven threes in five games, as well as an array of mid-range shots, was a welcome sight. I was delighted to see Miller frequently use his size on the inside, aggressively posting up and sealing perceived mismatches in the lane. Now, again, this was Summer League, meaning a lack of offensive identity and, well, passing ability as a unit meant Miller’s Timberwolves teammates did not frequently get him the ball in these situations.

But becoming an efficient off-ball mover bodes well for those instincts I mentioned. And combine a willingness to post-up and rebound (the latter of which we know Miller can do) with potential shot-making from deep, and suddenly, Miller is the coveted offensive player who can play in a five-out offense or be the ‘one’ in a four-out, one-in offense.

Those were just two ultimately fruitless in which Miller tried to leverage his size into a good look at the rim, the first of which had some small part in creating a good look at the rim for a teammate, but the G-League Ignite product was relentless in Vegas. It was incredibly refreshing to see Leonard Miller, who may project as a big guard on offense, be so active and willing to use his size down low. That’ll make guarding him a whole lot more problematic for defenses. 

@BeyondTheRK – MarJon Beauchamp’s shooting touch, decision-making, scoring versatility

MarJon Beauchamp has looked like the best player on the floor in multiple Summer League games. MarJon’s feathery shooting touch, decisive decision-making, and smooth scoring versatility have stood out for the second-year Milwaukee Buck.

In game one, MarJon led a second-half comeback victory for Milwaukee, aided by strong defense from teammates like Andre Jackson’s double block possession. After a slower first half in his first game, MarJon took the keys to the car and revved the engine; Beauchamp rallied from a 2/9 start from the field to convert 7/9 FG in the second half, finishing with 23 PTS on 50% FG% and 8 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Moving at a more controlled pace, with deliberate footwork, fundamental post-moves, and tight handles to create his own shot from all three levels.

Countering pull-up jump shots with elbow fades and even a self alley-oop slam to open his second game. Somewhere off in the distance, wherever Tracy McGrady was in that moment, it’s nice to think T-Mac looked up, smiled, and nodded in approval.

In game two, Beauchamp stayed in rhythm from the game prior, scoring 20 PTS on 7/13 FG, racking up a block and steal, attempting 8 free throws after 5 the first game.

MarJon using his respected jumper to pump-fake and draw defenders in the air is a highly-aware veteran move to create the most efficient shot in basketball: free throws

Clean footwork, tight handles, good feel helped Marjon show complete body and ball control with the rock.

Beauchamp has made scoring look smooth and shooting look simple. He was purposeful in his decision-making, attacking the rack for soft touch AND1 finishes, looking to create shots for himself or kick the ball to the open man.

MarJon didn’t see much of a defined role or opportunity in his rookie season. Now with a new head coach, maybe a better fitting role in the rotation arises. It’s no secret Giannis, Brook, and Jrue could use another scoring valve in the halfcourt next to Middleton who gives the team another player who could go off on any given night.

This type of microwave scoring option who can heat up at any moment, score the ball from anywhere on the floor on or off the ball, and add team-first decision making and length to the equation provides a secondary scoring option rotation player, on paper a clean fit as a reserve who offers a tough shot-maker to potentially close games with the defensive-heavy Milwaukee Bucks starting unit.

AJ – Trayce Jackson-Davis’ passing ability, Warriors-style

Despite limited time in Summer League, Trayce Jackson-Davis was able to show what makes him such an intriguing fit with the Warriors. He displayed his usual explosiveness and activity around the rim on both ends, but the reads and quick decisions he flashed as a passer really stood out as well. 

Trayce not only demonstrated the ability to make the simple pass to keep the offense moving, but he had moments of brilliance and made passes that a vast majority of bigs aren’t capable of. One of his passes in particular was eerily reminiscent of another Warriors frontcourt player:

Overall Trayce’s athleticism as a roll man and ability to affect shots at the rim on the other end remain his greatest strengths, but it was very intriguing to see the passing pop as much as it did in his short stint in Vegas, especially knowing how much the Warriors value bigs that can read the floor and make decisions. 

Charlie – Lester Quiñones’ scoring and passing translating from the G-League

After a strong showing in Vegas, LQ might just be one of the best scorers not already in the NBA.

With the Sea Dubs last season, Quiñones posted the 12th highest PPG mark in the league, getting up 10 threes per 36 minutes at a 35% clip. He was used to handling a high scoring load, and did a fair amount of playmaking for the team. Not only did he manage the 2nd highest assist percentage on the team, he posted a strong 1.4 ATO for a score-first wing.

In Vegas, we saw the same strengths: prolific scoring (21.6 PPG, 1st among 5-game players), firing away from deep (9 attempts, ranking 3rd), and a solid base of playmaking (5.2 assists, 9th overall). What impressed the most was how he did it. LQ was very aggressive with getting two feet in the paint, showcasing a strong array of kickout and layoff pases to capitalize on rim pressure. The finishing wasn’t going well for him, but he drew the most free-throws (41) of any player in the tournament.

This is what caught my eyes the most about his stretch of play. The variety in his scoring gives a consistency to his game even when one aspect isn’t working. Without the threes falling, he still used his developing handle to put points on the board in other ways and continue to create pressure for others.

Quiñones has put himself in the conversation for the 14th roster spot, with a two-way certainly in hand. Even if he ends up spending another year in Santa Cruz, it looks like Golden State has found themselves a player in the undrafted Memphis wing.

Michael Neff – OTE alums performed well across the board

In my one-size-fits-all draft strategy article, I said I was fine letting other teams draft Amen and Ausar Thompson. I said this due to the enigmatic nature of their league, Overtime Elite. We had no idea how the Thompsons’ dominance in OTE would translate up to the next level; Dom Barlow’s garbage time and end-of-season tanking minutes were the only real sample we had going into the draft of an OTE player making it to the NBA. So, did dominance in OTE mean that stardom was in their future, or did it simply mean that you were good enough to stick in an NBA rotation? Was Ausar the next Andre Iguodala or the next Keon Johnson? Should Amen have dominated even more given his otherworldly athleticism? 

These questions were not meant to be flippant. Because there was some intriguing NCAA and G-League talent who offered quick avenues to positive contribution and high upside, I would have taken the wait and see approach with the Thompsons and OTE. I wasn’t a skeptic, just agnostic. 

But, as it turns out, OTE has prepared its players for the professional level. I know it is just Summer League, but I’m already more excited about these OTE players and the talent the league will produce in the coming years. Ausar Thompson really did look like prime Iggy out there, with a per game slashline of 13.5/9.8/3.5 to go along with two steals a game. His length, quickness, and anticipation were overwhelming defensively, and the dribbling and connective passing from OTE stuck around. Amen Thompson only played one game, but he looked like a top five athlete in basketball right now. 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks in 28 minutes speaks for itself. No one could stay in front of Amen, and he picked the defense apart with his passing to a degree no one in the Rockets’ young core is close to emulating. 

The Thompsons were the headliners, but it wasn’t all about them. Dom Barlow seems to have built on his athleticism and added more skill to his game. He didn’t attempt any threes, but Barlow’s midrange jumper is looking better. He also averaged 2.0 assists to 1.3 turnovers. What I loved to see from Barlow was how functionally he used his athletic tools. There was a purpose and precision in his movements that I don’t remember seeing from him before. Barlow might have gone from a flash in the pan to a possible contributor for the Spurs moving forward. Even Jazian Gortman and Jaylen Martin, with the Bucks and Knicks respectively, had their moments. Gortman’s creation for himself and others looked strong, and Martin played quality defense and made good decisions for the Knicks.

It is too early to take any overarching lessons from the 2023 Draft. But, OTE already has me on high alert. Not only does OTE look like a viable development path, but a potentially very beneficial one of the right players. I will be keenly monitoring them going forward. Also, note to self: when two of the best passers and ball handlers in the class are also two of the best athletes in basketball, just put them high on your board.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Summer League 2023 Takeaways appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

What role will Leonard Miller play in the league? I have no idea. What I do know is that role projection analysis is capped, the issue with historical analysis is overgeneralization, and Leonard Miller should most definitely not be mocked in the 20s for the 2023 NBA Draft.

I can say with strong confidence that there really has never been a prospect like Leonard Miller. And quite frankly, there’s no reason why his integration of skills should be demonized (see: Refutation). His combination of physical tools, tangible skill, and sheer productivity is ridiculous, and it’s best epitomized through the following Skill-Paradigm framework.

Skill: Youth + Productivity

Paradigm: Exceptional productivity at a young age is indicative of untapped upside.

Leonard is freshman aged (Nov 2003, born in same month as Taylor Hendricks and Keyonte George). He is averaging a whopping 18 ppg with grown men on spectacular efficiency. 

63% TS, 66% at the rim, and a whopping 38 dunks. 24 points per 40 minutes, which would place him 5th across prospects in ESPN’s latest mock draft. He is genuinely a high volume scorer with simply tremendous efficiency and interior dominance. 

Since Leonard is at 63% TS, 38 dunks, and 18 ppg, let’s look at all freshman prospects who have ever hit 60% TS, 30 dunks, and 17 ppg:

1. Zion
2. Marvin Bagley
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Vernon Carey
5. Jahlil Okafor

Four Duke bigs and Ayton is crazy. Lowering it to 16 ppg adds the following: 

6. Evan Mobley
7. Onyeka Okongwu
8. TJ Leaf
9. Zeke Nnaji

Again, pretty limited company. (Note that no one here had a FT% above 73% and none of them were really operating from the perimeter. That will be important soon.)

I understand that the G League has a different pace, but it’s almost certainly harder to score in the G vs college. You can waffle about rim protection but these numbers should at least contextualize Leonard’s scoring dominance. He was putting up numbers in the G League that only five other freshmen have even come close to in college.

But why does this matter? Why is the combination of youth and productivity so important?

Suppose I gave a group of college students an algebra test. Their scores would generally not be very useful or predictive, for obvious reasons. However, if I gave the algebra test to a group of 6th graders, it’s more likely to hold insights regarding their foundational skills. Obviously it’s not perfect, since access to resources/rate of development can vary dramatically, but it’s at least better at differentiating between performance. 

In the same way, a 19 year old dominating in a league full of grown men is an incredibly important statistical point. The age curve is real, and Leonard was not only the most statistically dominant teenager in the history of the G League, but he did it despite limited high-level experience – he was playing in Canadian youth circuits a year ago. High volume scoring at high efficiency is impressive and very rare among 19 year olds within the NCAA, let alone the G-League, which is littered with former college stars.

In other words:

(Historic Examples: Walker Kessler, Franz Wagner, Tyrese Haliburton, Mikal Bridges, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The relative heterogeneity of the group is a testament to the power of precocious productivity)

Skill: Size + Touch + Youth

Adjust usage of touch indicators based on size and youth.

Leonard is not a good shooter at the moment. He’s a very strongly below average shooter at the moment. This is a player who was below average or worse on jump shots, catch and shoot (both guarded and unguarded), dribble jumpers, early jumpers, runners, and hooks- literally every shot category not at the rim, Leonard was solidly below average. At the combine, Leonard finished dead last in the shooting drill, tied with Oscar Tshiebwe. 

Now that we have that out of the way, I say with as much confidence as I can for a player with such a negative shooting profile: Leonard is a relatively good bet to shoot. Let’s break this skill integration down:

1. Skill: Size + Touch

Leonard’s exceptional touch is most obvious to anyone who has watched even a modicum of Leonard film. I’m assuming readers are somewhat familiar with Leonard’s incredible bevy of floaters, off the glass ambidextrous pushes, and off-foot, off-hand finishes. If not: basically, Leonard Miller has incredible touch, but less in the traditional sense of strictly being a good shooter and more so in the sensuous control and finesse of his release in the short-intermediate area.

Leonard also shoots 80% from the line on strong volume. This is especially impressive considering the G League foul rules generating only one free throw per shooting foul, rather than two FTs/foul as in NCAA. The second free throw is anecdotally easier to make than the first free throw, with some armchair statisticians citing 4-5% increase in accuracy on the second FT vs the first FT. Given the robust sample size and the one FT rule, Leonard’s 80% FT is probably a slight underestimate. That is wild.

There’s obviously touch in terms of shooting, but how does touch operate in regards to ball handling fluidity? 

Well, Leonard has a wildly functional handle at 6’11.  He can genuinely dribble in small spaces extraordinarily well, and can maintain his dribble despite pretty significant pressure. The underlying fluidity of Leonard’s handling (he inadvertently throws  passes with one hand off a live dribble?) indicates another layer of the insanely high threshold of fine motor skills that Leonard possesses. We often tend to abridge dribbling as a learned skill, but it’s just as much of a function of biomechanical/motor underpinnings. Does this mean that he has a higher likelihood of hitting fadeaways and maybe even legitimate pull-ups off an improvised dribble cadence? Is he even going to be able to hit inside the arc fadeaways off hostage dribbles? I think these are legitimate potential outcomes. Nonetheless, Leonard’s fluidity and touch extends beyond just his free throw mastery to his BH craft, and I think his BH upside is significant enough to consider.

2. Skill: (Size + Touch) + Youth

The “coordination curve” is real. Tall players tend to undergo much more drastic skill improvements than shorter players. This is but another generality, but this is either because 1) the wings have been dominating by virtue of physicality for a while and are thereby at a skill disadvantage or 2) said player has grown immensely over a short period of time and is reaping the benefits of activating newfound avenues of scoring by virtue of increased frame and mass. Leonard may be the rare case that fits in both categories.

This might be intuitive, but young, wing sized players need to be graded on a much less harsh shooting curve- they are most prone to making massive in-season shooting leaps. Just look at Brandon Miller 3P volume/%  leap this year, or even Tari Eason’s FT% jump from freshman to sophomore year in 2022. Touch indicators are probably more robust for wings than guards, since the shooting curve is longer for wings. Speaking as someone who had Devon Dotson insanely high, Devon Dotson shooting 80% from the line but only 30% from 3 is not as strong of a shooting bet as someone 6 inches taller than him. Leonard has great touch indicators, he’s 6’10”, and he’s 19 years old. His already strong touch indicators are even more impressive in context of his size and age. He is certainly not destined to be a “bad” shooter.

3. Skill Gap: Shooting woes are a function of mechanics not touch

Leonard’s jumper issues are mechanically a function of energy leakage. The load mechanism is inconsistent from jumper to jumper, leading to a mistimed synchronization between the lower body to the core/upper body. This breakdown of the kinetic chain limits the push-off from the legs. 

The subsequent force generated from the lower body is meant to transfer throughout the hips and core, thereby enabling rotational torque about his center of gravity that thrusts the ball into trajectory. However, Leonard has a low arching push shot that is visibly segmented from the workflow of the kinetic linking, leading to a disparately visible discrimination between the set and push of the shot.

The hitch seems to cause variations in the release point of the ball. The pause disrupts the natural fluidity of the shooting motion, making it challenging to replicate a consistent release point from shot to shot. Leonard appears to over-rely on his upper extremity strength to generate power, bypassing the opportunity to maximize force production from the larger leg and core muscles.

Here’s the bottom line: Leonard is generating virtually no energy transfer between the kinetic linking of the upper and lower body. Part of that is the limited core stability symptomatic of the landing leg kicks and even poor one-legged landing mechanics after dunks. 

Touch + Energy Transfer = Shooting

Touch, which is succinctly the nexus of sensory feedback and coordination, operates synergistically with energy transfer to manifest in shooting goodness. Shots such as free throws and intermediate area shots are somewhat standardized to an extent- neither rely on a consistently dynamic change of energy transfer up the kinetic chain, and they are much more effective in indicating underlying touch.

Essentially, Leonard excels at these kinds of shots, since he has such good touch but not so great control over a homogeneous synchronization of energy transfer. Since his specialty – free throws and intermediate area shots – are more touch based and less dependent on efficient energy transfer, he excels at them.

However, when extending range to long 2’s/threes, there’s a necessity for more fluidity from upper body to release by virtue of the increasing distance. Leonard seems to be over reliant on his touch on the longer range jumpers/threes, which is probably why he seems to be pushing the ball so vigorously; the lack of effective energy transfer necessitates this vigor. The lack of core stability is either a symptom or root cause of the limited kinetic control- its the underlying bridge between the lower and upper extremities. I cannot emphasize how his one leg landings are really really bad, which is further evidence of his limited core stability.

Leonard has good touch and bad energy transfer/rotational torque. I’m no Chip England, but this is a far brighter picture than what the numbers portray. Core stability seems like an issue that can be fixed, and he also has insane touch- not just good touch, but borderline ridiculous touch. Fixing a shot mechanically is tough, but having the underlying elite touch makes it much lower hanging fruit than for a true “non shooter.” 

Skill: Physicality + Dawg

Unorthodox athleticism and motor at a young age is a strong indicator of outlier development.

Leonard is such a strong athlete. He fights hard for every single rebound and loose ball, which is impressive considering how often the Ignite were losing this year. He was ranked sixth in the entire G-League in rebounds a game, averaging 12 per 36 minutes. That is insane. A 19 year old who is quite visibly not even close to filling out physically, is inexplicably out rebounding grown men. For context, he’s averaging as many rebounds as Kenneth Faried. 

His per-game rebound rate is easily the highest among draft-eligible underclassmen, he’s fourth overall among draft eligible players… and he’s doing this against grown men, not against college players.

The intrinsic dawg of Leonard enables his rebounding goodness in the face of his lack of tangible strength and youth. He has an incredibly high motor, and he’s physically gifted (6’11” with a 7’2” wingspan and functionally very very strong, clearly) with seemingly much more room to grow and gain strength. The intersection of Leonard’s insane physicality, potential for even more physicality, and sheer dawg is not only rare, but seemingly ripe for outlier development. 

The most egregious part is that this 6’11” teenager legitimately moves like a guard. With long legs, flexible hips, and an incredible vestibular sense, Leonard can maintain stability while stringing out spins and stepbacks. In every sense of the term, Leonard is an advantage creator. His low shin angles, rapidly veering lower body rotations, and the sheer variance in his weight distribution allow him to lower his center of gravity and generate paint touches off a perimeter standstill. Again, how many 6’10 guys in the league can get a paint touch in the halfcourt?

Refutation: Role Projection is Imprecise

I fundamentally disagree with lowering a player’s projected outcome because of uncertainty regarding their projected role.

When we see a prospect that has an entirely unique set of flaws and weaknesses, role projection becomes much more difficult. There is no one to cross-check with, no one to even remotely compare the prospect and get a sense of what kind of outcomes they can achieve.  An intuitive byproduct of this is that when an unfamiliar, newer type of archetypal prospect emerges, they are mistakenly demonized for not being easily projectable. Here’s the issue though: precise role projection is hard as hell. Besides using general terms such as “future PnR BH”, “cutter”, “connector”, it is extremely difficult to project future roles for players. This is why I find it a bit ridiculous to be low on a player because you can’t project them well: Since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?

Of course, I am speaking in generalities to an extent. But if the biggest question for Leonard is not his productivity, ability to hold up against NBA defenses, or scoring touch, then uncertainty about role is quite a weak reason to limit his outcome projection. And this role uncertainty does seem to be the primary question regarding Leonard.

Closing Pitch: Leonard Miller is Good

Leonard Miller is projected to be picked outside the top 20, which, regardless of evaluatory paradigm of choice, is borderline ridiculous. I believe he has a legitimate top 10 case, and should at least be considered with a lottery selection. 

The issue with historical analysis is overgeneralization: history doesn’t repeat itself. It may follow incredibly similar patterns, making the process of prediction easier to elucidate. But there are far too many confounding variables to project variability by virtue of precedent alone. 

Again, anyone who pretends that precise role projection is somewhat feasible is lying to you. Most people base role projection almost entirely off precedent, which means that when an unfamiliar, newer type of archetypal prospect emerges, they demonize them for not being familiar. We often conflate projecting outcomes with projecting roles. Most role projections are outright wrong, so quite frankly I don’t see too much of an issue with not knowing how Leonard will project.

Who is Leonard Miller at his peak? I honestly have no idea. He’s such an unprecedented player with such wide discrepancies between his strengths and weaknesses; his role is impossible to project. 

What position does he guard? To be honest, I’m not losing sleep at night regarding the primary position that Leonard Miller, a 6’11 teenage wing with a 7’2 wingspan and insatiable motor, will guard. Again, I don’t know what role he will play, but isn’t the most dominant teenager in G-League history a good bet to be a role player at least?

Hollingerian draft analysis is predicated around the idea of stability of floor, wherein there are 20 players who will evolve into feasible contributors, and searching for those 20 players in any given draft should be a primary consideration of any big board. While this approach has its flaws, including overfitting without effectively capturing changing league context, it’s a floor-centric approach that should theoretically favor Leonard. 

This is the beauty of the Leonard Miller draft evaluation. You can be a tools-centric truther, a pure hooper, a calculator boy with a distaste for ahistorical analysis, a Hollinger disciple, or from the Zwickerian tree of making a  series of objective extrapolations off every minutiae of tangible skill. Leonard Miller combines all sectors of evaluatory paradigms with his unprecedented integration of skills.

The post Leonard Miller: Evaluatory Paradigms, Energy Transfer, and the Fallacy of Role Projection appeared first on Swish Theory.

Lately, I have been dissatisfied with using a big board as a means of properly reflecting my thoughts on a given draft class. I would target certain players in each range of the draft. The rest are just red herrings who are decent to good prospects, but I am fine missing out on them. That’s why forming a big board is so challenging. There are guys like Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown who I have strong conviction about as second round fliers. Conversely, there are some projected first round guys who I am lower on such as Nick Smith and Jalen Hood-Schifino. I have spent too many hours staring at my big board spreadsheet asking myself how to rank these guys. The objectively correct move is likely to rank the young high RSCI guy above Slawson, a 23-year old wing from Furman. But, that feels weird to me! I like Slawson a lot and I’m not a Nick Smith fan. Shouldn’t my board reflect that? 

The obvious phenomenon at hand is that I am anchoring my perception of these players to their projected draft ranges. We all do it, and that is completely fine. But, translating this into a big board proves difficult, muddying the waters of my actual thoughts on the draft class. I would rather articulate my overarching strategy, isolate the prospects I have conviction about, and leave the rest be. That’s exactly what the piece will cover: the best way of attacking the 2023 NBA Draft, as I see it. 

I will be providing a big board closer to draft day as well, if for no other reason than it is fun. But, I feel that this will be a great accompanying piece that better articulates my thoughts on the draft class. Here goes: 

The Spurs Have Already Won the Draft

Victor Wembanyama is the prize of this draft. He is the prize of the past ten drafts, and probably the next ten drafts. Nothing any other team does in this draft will have the impact that the Spurs winning the lottery will have on them. As the saying goes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Spurs lucked into this guy: https://youtu.be/L33JKYc1ZKA

Anything else the Spurs do on draft day in the second round or with some sort of trade is icing on the cake. Additionally, nothing they do in other areas of the draft will tarnish their night. As far as I am concerned, they can take it easy on draft prep and make sure they get their beauty sleep in the nights leading up to the draft. It’s Victor Wembanyama. Not much more to say there. 

Once Wemby is off the board, I am not drafting anyone else if Scoot Henderson is still on the board. 

I see the Brandon Miller chatter just like everyone else does. I can tell you right now that passing on Scoot Henderson with the number 2 pick would be a huge mistake. Trading away your pick when you have a chance to pick Scoot would also be a mistake (I’m looking at you, Portland). While he isn’t perfect, he is by far the next-best bet to become a star this year. 

A powerful 6’2 guard, Scoot is a walking paint touch who uses his speed/power combination to get to the rim better than anyone in the class – when he wants to. Many scouts observed that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks in favor of midrange jumpers as the season progressed. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic wrote an excellent article on this problem with Scoot where he suggested that Scoot was trying to be careful and avoid injury as soon as he locked up a high draft pick. Everything I’ve read about Scoot’s leadership, poise, maturity, and work ethic is outstanding, so I highly doubt this was a reflection of his character. Also, he can do this: https://twitter.com/nbagleague/status/1610446654796173324?s=20

I think he’s going to be more than fine generating paint touches and getting the most out of his athletic tools.  

Additionally, Scoot is already advanced at everything required of a primary offensive initiator with his athleticism. He is comfortable shooting off the dribble, and has a two year sample of advanced passing in the G-League. For my money, Scoot Henderson is as easy of a bet to be a primary offensive initiator that I have evaluated. He will be an amazing consolation prize for whoever ends up with him. If the team is not Charlotte, that will be the first major inefficiency at play in this draft. 

Successful teams are littered with 6’6+ wing players with two way impact. Draft strategy should be geared towards finding such players

Watch any high level NBA game, and you’ll find versatile and skilled wing sized players filling out every rotation. You can’t have enough of these guys. Luckily, the top of this draft has plenty to choose from. Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, and Gradey Dick are perfect options in the 3-14 range for teams. All bring youth, smarts, versatility, and a wide-ranging skill set that will allow them to contribute in a multitude of ways. Some are more ready to contribute than others, but all have upside and are likely to play in many high-stakes games. 

There are also a collection of smart and versatile wing-sized players down the board that will likely be underdrafted. Colby Jones is a potential first rounder that teams should be targeting. If he shoots, Sidy Cissoko is quietly a very complete prospect who also has time on his side with an April 2004 birthday. Jett Howard has plenty of flaws, but he can dribble, pass, and shoot at 6’8. Using this criteria, there is a large collection of sleepers that can be had for an inconsequential draft pick or maybe none at all: Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Jalen Slawson, Ben Sheppard, Toumani Camara, Anton Watson (please teach this man how to play offense), even someone like Justyn Mutts is very overlooked by NBA teams right now. There are plenty of fliers that can and should be taken by teams. Not all of these guys are going to hit, but if they do, that is a potential playoff contributor acquired for extraordinarily cheap. I’d rather do that than pick Drew Timme in the 40s. 

Notice I didn’t mention the Thompson twins. Let’s have that discussion now. 

I am fine letting other teams bet on the Thompson twins, given where they are projected to go. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

Always be on the lookout for players with a “compounding skills” profile

In the 2020 draft cycle, I wrote a detailed article about why I had Anthony Edwards as my number one prospect. It’s easy to forget, but a lot of people had Edwards at two or even lower throughout that cycle. I remained steadfast that he was the guy everyone should be after at the top. Why? He had what I called a “compounding skills” profile: essentially, the evolution of a raw, fluid athlete who scores in volume into a complete offensive player. I’ll link that article here. I’d urge you to at least read the introduction to get a better idea of my thought process here. 

I used the same logic to rank Jalen Green high on my board in 2021, as well as Jaden Ivey last year. This year, Cam Whitmore jumps out as the compounding skills candidate of choice. He heavily prefers jumping off two feet and winning with strength. That style of finishing generally has some trouble translating, but I am not sure it’s going to matter with Whitmore. I have also not seen a speed/power athlete moving towards the rim quite like Whitmore since Anthony Edwards. His flashes getting downhill, moving defenders off their spots, getting his shoulder past them, and finishing through contact are special. He also shows shooting touch and flashes versatility in terms of shot type and location which screams three-level scorer. He also has all the tools you could possibly want on defense, already boasting a high steal rate and some eye-popping weak side rim protection.  

There are also plenty of concerns. He had more than two turnovers for every assist, and his off the dribble game is much more theoretical at this stage – as was the case with many compounding skills prospects before Whitmore. When you look at guys with athleticism this special who flashed real perimeter skill, the fail rate is basically zero, and they often become All-Star caliber players. Whitmore also has plenty of time to develop, as he doesn’t turn 19 until July 8th. 

We often underestimate the upside of freshman-aged prospects who are billed as guaranteed role players. 

In the past, myself and others have referred to these types of guys as “false-ceiling” prospects. These prospects are rightfully considered good basketball players who are likely to contribute early, but their avenues to greater upside are ignored. My favorite recent example of a false ceiling prospect is Franz Wagner, who I had as my 12th ranked prospect in 2021. Franz is the prospect who forced me to internalize the lesson of false ceiling prospects in the first place. Many, including me, thought of him as someone who could become a quality role player in the NBA. But, I missed the point entirely. Franz was a freshman-aged prospect with some pro experience in Europe and was highly impactful at Michigan. Because he was already great at basketball, I moved him down in favor of guys with more upside (translation: they were worse at basketball and had more room to improve). I vowed not to make the same mistake. 

In my mind, there are two false ceiling prospects in the 2023 class: Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks. Both are advanced defenders, which raises the floor and ceiling of any prospect. Defense gets rookies on the floor quickly, and it means that they don’t have to reach the highest heights offensively to hit a high-upside outcome. Walker and Hendricks also project to undergo significant development offensively, which will make playoff starter impact very attainable, and possibly more than that. 

Jarace Walker is an advanced processor of the game on both ends of the floor, and he will immediately contribute as a connector. I also believe that he is going to shoot, as he has dramatically improved his mechanics from high school to college. This mechanical improvement, combined with his processing speed, indicates that Jarace has the neuroplasticity required for outlier skill development. Thus, self-creation is not out of the question for Jarace. 

Hendricks is a more typical offensive development bet. He is a good athlete who can already shoot it off the catch, and he looks more polished than Jarace at hitting tough looks in the midrange at this stage. The drawback with him is the handle and playmaking ability. What’s encouraging is that guys with Hendricks’ size, defensive ability, athleticism, and scoring ability often improve as playmakers as their careers progress. The degree of improvement in these areas will dictate how good Hendricks can become. 

Personally, I prefer Jarace as a development bet, as I think he is in a better position to contribute immediately, but both are great. Take your pick. 

The other G-League Ignite guys are extremely underrated

As I am writing, Leonard Miller is ranked 19th on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board, and Sidy Cissoko is ranked 31st. That is too low. As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. By the way, that should be another point of emphasis: always look for “raw” prospects who are highly productive against good competition. These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

Cissoko, as I mentioned earlier in this article, is a quietly complete wing prospect. In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent. I have Cissoko in my late lottery, and as I type this out, I am wondering if even that might be too low. In any case, Cissoko is someone teams should be targeting with a mid-late first. If he slips into the second round, that would be a massive oversight. 

Non-primary initiator guard prospects who do not project to play NBA-level defense should be outside your lottery. 

Go back however far, and the ideal redraft of any given class usually looks like this: 

• Primary offensive initiators OR 2nd/3rd offensive options who provide defensive value (often the players we consider stars)
• Starters with two-way ability OR DPOY level defenders without much of an offensive game (guys who usually round out championship-quality lineups)
• Everyone else

Of course, there are some cases where that structure doesn’t perfectly capture how a draft should have gone. But, the point still stands. Usually, the players who return lottery value contribute defensively in some way. At the very least, they don’t detract on that end. Thinking about player impact through a plus/minus framework, this makes sense. A -2 on defense has to do a lot on offense (basically be a primary offensive initiator) to be a high-impact player. If you project that a prospect will be a neutral defender, that is almost guaranteed to be a better proposition than an at best secondary creator guard who does not defend. Secondary creators usually top out as roughly +2-3 offensive players in impact metrics. This implies that bad defending virtually negates their impact. 

Using examples makes this idea clearer. There are notably few guards of this ilk who have been a part of deep playoff runs. Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro are the two that jump to mind who were in rotations that made it to the championship. But, both these players’ utility wanes in the playoffs. Poole went from 30 minutes per game in the 2021-22 regular season to 27.5 in the postseason. That’s not a huge dropoff, but it’s worth noting that Poole played only 20, 14, and 17 minutes respectively in the last three games of the Finals. The Warriors won all three of those games to close out the series. Additionally, Herro’s secondary creation has not proven necessary for the Heat’s success. He has missed all but one game of the Heat’s run to the finals this year. 

The problems with this archetype don’t stop on the court. Despite their negligible impact, these players command a lot of money. Jordan Poole is owed $128 million over the next four years, and Herro is owed $120 million over the same time interval. So, at best you’re getting a player of negligible impact who you have to turn around and pay a boatload of money for. The only way these players can provide value is through a trade, likely during their rookie contract. That can be quite useful, but I would not draft a player for the sole purpose of their hypothetical trade value. 

So, who is being mocked in the lottery that might fall into this category? Nick Smith is the main one for me. Defensively, he has a bit of a motor, but I really worry about his frame and technique on that end. His footwork often gets messed up, and his skinny frame likely prevents him from making a huge impact. There is a physical tools threshold for impactful defense which Smith does not project to hit. For instance, I liked Blake Wesley’s effort on defense a lot last year, but that effort hasn’t translated up a level. Bones Hyland graded out as one of the worst defenders in the league last season despite being a pest at VCU. To make matters worse, I liked Hyland and Wesley significantly more as defenders in college. 

Another guy that I’ve steadily soured on throughout the cycle is Keyonte George. I was really high on him at the start of the season, and I still see a high upside scorer if everything comes together. But, I don’t think I properly considered the low end or even median outcomes for Keyonte, which look worryingly like this archetype. Again, I see the upside vision a lot more with Keyonte than I do with Nick Smith, so I wouldn’t hate it if a team picked him in the late lottery or mid-first. 

3&D Guards Matter

I wrote earlier in this article about 6’6+ players populating successful NBA teams, but 3&D guards have been crucial in these playoffs as well. Last offseason, Denver acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, and it completely transformed their defense. Gabe Vincent impresses me more and more every time I watch him. Marcus Smart has been perhaps the most prevalent 3&D guard in the last few years; he continues to be an integral part of the Celtics’ playoff runs. Smart’s teammate Derrick White, DeAnthony Melton, and Quentin Grimes are several others who’ve also contributed at a high level as 3&D guards. I’m sure important players are missing from that list, but the point is that these players can be difference makers down the stretch of the season. To loop in the last section, I’d rather have a great 3&D guard than a meh secondary creator/poor defending guard. 

Cason Wallace and Kobe Bufkin are two candidates for 3&D guards who also have some upside to exceed that archetype (especially Wallace). Both are in my lottery. Brandin Podziemski is a highly skilled guard who projects to contribute to playoff rotations. The concern here is Podz’s athleticism and what that means for his defensive projection. However, I am betting on his brain. I just think he is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to meaningfully contribute one way or another. 

Marcus Sasser is another player who is going to provide shooting and dogged defense as an off-ball guard. I think he has enough ball handling and playmaking chops that he can provide some second unit ball handling as well. The aforementioned Gabe Vincent might not be a bad reference point for Sasser. 

If you wanted to swing for a potential 3&D guard in the late 2nd/UDFA. UCLA’s Jaylen Clark and Wichita St guard Craig Porter Jr would be good names to target. Clark is an elite perimeter defender who is a jump shot away from being a perfect 3&D guard. I wish I felt better about him developing that shot though. Clark is also in the middle of rehabbing a torn Achilles, which makes his projection even fuzzier. But, I still like him as a top 45 guy, as his “if he shoots” outcome will return top 30 value from this class. Porter Jr is a stock machine (career 4.7 BLK% as a 6’2 guard!) who could absolutely hold his own as a table setting point guard at the next level. The issue is his lack of touch might prevent him from seeing the floor in the NBA. 68.5% from the line this past season is very worrying for a point guard prospect. However, if you can get Craig Porter Jr in UDFA, you make that bet every time. If he shoots, he can be an impactful NBA player. 

Penn State’s Jalen Pickett seems underrated as well. He’s a great three-level unassisted shotmaker, 11.2 assist per 100 to only 3.9 turnovers, and he has the tools to at least passably guard smalls on the perimeter. He deserves to be drafted. Another guy I like in UDFA is D’Moi Hodge from Missouri. He turns 25 in December, so if he’s going to make an impact in the NBA, he needs to do so quickly. But, it’s hard to argue with 40 percent from three on high volume, 5.1 steals per 100, and only 1.5 turnovers per 100 as a starting point. 

Some Quick Hitters: 

Drafting GG Jackson would be using a 2023 pick on a guy who likely won’t contribute until at least 2025

I am generally wary of drafting raw and unproductive guys whose high-end outcomes likely won’t give you a star, especially in the first round. It’s why I was lower on Ziaire Williams in 2021, and he had considerably more tangible skill than GG Jackson does. I get the age + height + isolation scoring argument for Jackson. But, he isn’t close to being a positive contributor at this stage. That sort of bet is just not my cup of tea. He could very well end up being a decent player, but I would rather use a mid-late first on someone who is closer to contributing now (or trade that pick for future assets) than draft GG. 

Jalen Hood-Schifino scares me 

Johnny Davis PTSD is really affecting me here. Offensively, JHS reminds me of Davis in a lot of ways. He is a midrange specialist on offense, he’s very inefficient, and he can’t generate enough rim pressure for a NBA primary ball handler. On top of that, JHS isn’t in the same stratosphere as prospect Johnny Davis defensively. A 0.7 BPM does not ease concerns either. I get the idea of JHS as a prospect, but the reality is that he just is not that great right now. He has to become an otherworldly tough shot maker to turn into a valuable player. That is not a bet I’d be inclined to make. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round

I tend to fade traditional centers on my board, as such players can usually be acquired for cheap in free agency, if desired. However, if a high-feel and/or coverage versatile big man is available in the second round, take them. Last year, Jaylin Williams was my high-feel and coverage versatile big of choice. I was also high on Xavier Tillman in 2021 for the same reasons. He’s still probably my favorite big of this type I have evaluated. Trayce Jackson-Davis is that big for me this year. Both Williams and Tillman were drafted in the 30s. If Jackson-Davis is available in that range, he’d be a great pick. 

You could do a lot worse than targeting proven wing shooters in the late 2nd/UDFA

There are plenty of prospects who will be available in the late 2nd/UDFA who profile as old, one-dimensional shooters. We often push these guys down the board, but look at the undrafted guys contributing for Miami right now. They can shoot the cover off the ball. Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin in particular fit this exact profile in college. Sam Hauser (Go Hoos!) is another recent successful UDFA in this mold. In this draft, it would not surprise me if Seth Lundy or Hunter Tyson stuck around in the NBA. Both are older prospects who are primarily shooters on offense. But, they take care of the ball well enough to suggest that they can hang in an NBA offense. Lundy and Tyson would be my picks for wing shooters in UDFA. He’s more of a guard/wing combo, but D’Moi Hodge could qualify here as well.

Putting It All Together

To close, I want to make a simple list of which players I would target in each range of the draft using the ideas I have put forth in this article. 

• Pick 1: Wemby
• Picks 2-4: Scoot if available; Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker if not. Trading down if Scoot is unavailable could also be an enticing proposition. 
• Picks 5-9: Whitmore or Jarace if available. Taylor Hendricks next preference. If those three are gone, Cason Wallace and Gradey Dick are next up. 
• Picks 10-14: Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, or Gradey Dick if available. If not, this is Leonard Miller territory. 
• Picks 15-30: Leonard Miller if available. Sidy Cissoko, Kobe Bufkin, or Jett Howard next. If the G-League and Michigan guys are unavailable, Colby Jones, Brandin Podziemski, Marcus Sasser, and Jaime Jaquez Jr are my preferences, in that order. 
• Picks 31-45: Sidy Cissoko if available. The above list of preferences for picks 15-30 carries over. Trayce Jackson-Davis is in play here too. I didn’t discuss them, but Maxwell Lewis, Noah Clowney, and Julian Phillips are worthy “raw prospect” gambles here too, should any of them be available. Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, or Ben Sheppard would be good gets in this range as well. 
• Picks 46-60: Everything above carries over here. Slawson, Brown, or Sheppard would be my preference. Beyond them, Jaylen Clark, Seth Lundy, Hunter Tyson, Jalen Pickett, Craig Porter Jr, Toumani Camara, and Jordan Miller are all worthy of consideration. 
• UDFA: Ditto picks 46-60. Plus, D’Moi Hodge, Anton Watson, and Justyn Mutts would be priority signings for my summer league team. They are excellent Exhibit-10 candidates. If you’re looking for a big, Chattanooga’s Jake Stephens put up an absurd 39.7 points, 17.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 4 blocks, and 5.1 turnovers per 100 on 67 percent true shooting. He also shot 40 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, in addition to an 82 FT%. UConn’s Adama Sanogo is another coverage versatile guy with excellent touch around the rim. I wouldn’t necessarily target him over the wing bets I mentioned in the 2nd. But, if he goes undrafted, Sanogo is someone I’d look to bring in. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So, that is my 2023 draft strategy. I hope this paints a clear picture of my convictions in this class and the principles which informed them. Increasingly, NBA basketball is a game for functionally athletic, smart individuals who bring tangible skill on both ends of the floor. Such players can be found in every range of the draft, and every player I positively discussed in this piece is someone I believe can satisfy these requirements.

The post One-Size Fits All Draft Strategy appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Lakers have developed a positive reputation around NBA circles for their drafting in recent years, picking up Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr., Josh Hart, and Kyle Kuzma with late first or second-round picks. And maybe even more impressive, have signed and developed undrafted free agents like Alex Caruso and Austin Reaves that have shown great promise to have long, sustainable NBA careers.

Team Needs

With the Lakers being in a win-now mindset with an aging LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for the #17 pick, the team should be looking for short-term fit prospects with upside alongside the two stars instead of long-term projects. 

As far as on-court fit, in the playoffs we saw some holes the Lakers should be addressing in the off-season, and here’s how I would rank them.

1. More size among frontcourt
   • To close out games, Lebron and AD as your two frontcourt options make a formidable backline but across a full 82-game season, it would be the wrong move to put all of the interior burden on them. We also saw in that Denver series, playing with more wings and guards led to LA getting obliterated on the boards and this would help with that.
2. Backup center (can also play with AD)
   • If the Lakers could find a consistent option to back up AD while also being a solid enough option to play alongside Davis, it would do wonders for the team’s depth and rotations while also alleviating some size concerns as well.
3. Overall shotmaking
   • We saw D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Troy Brown Jr. shoot below league average from three in the playoffs and it cost the team in the long run. On paper you should be able to trust Russell, Beasley, and Brown Jr. but the Lakers just may need more reliable shooters than that group. 

Six Fits for #17

Jordan Hawkins, 6-5 SG, UConn

Hawkins is an off-ball gunner. The way UCONN used him endlessly running around off-ball screens to get open and knock down shots drew comparison to a former UCONN great, Ray Allen. Hawkins has great deceleration and footwork coming off of those screens to stop on a dime and knock down deep contested looks. While that is his selling point, the slim shooter hailing from Maryland has an array of moves off the dribble as well. Whether its step backs, sidesteps, or pull-up midranges, do not think Hawkins is just a one-trick pony. He can also attack hard closeouts or good back pressure from defenders very well and get to the rim for floaters, dumb-offs, or finishes at the rim but this is a big area for him to improve on. Hawkins only shot 55% at the rim this season, which is below average and on film, he can produce some wild attempts at the rim trying to finish through defenders (which is a plus) but with his slim frame, he’ll lose control of the ball or just get overwhelmed by the defender.

As far as defense, Hawkins is a very attentive defender that does his job and can play with a physicality that some may not expect with his frame. He is comfortable going chest to chest with ball handlers and walling them off and also has the foot speed to stay with plenty of guards. He defends with high and active hands which can throw off defenders even with a mild +2 wingspan at 6’7. Hawkins is a defender that you won’t really notice when watching and that is a good thing! His ability to execute the team’s scheme and stay locked in while rarely having slip-ups or miscues can go a long way. 

I could see Hawkins fitting into Malik Beasley or Lonnie Walker’s role like a glove and with his movement skills, it could open up an array of attacks that the Lakers could exploit on the opponent’s defense. 

Kobe Bufkin, 6-5 PG/SG, Michigan

Not to mention him being named after a franchise legend and attending Lakers’ general manager Rob Pelinka’s alma mater, but Kobe Bufkin fits the “guards with high feel for the game” mold the Lakers have shown to value in the draft with the acquisitions of Austin Reaves and previously Alex Caruso. Bufkin is trustworthy and steady with the ball in his hands while being a quick ball mover and decision-maker. Bufkin has shown to be a three-level scorer as well, although on low volume. The lanky lefty shot 36% from three, 55% from two, and 69% at the rim (!!). His craft around the rim is very impressive as he can make finishes over contests at obscure angles and use his long wingspan to get around the limbs defending the rim. His offensive play style suits either being off the ball, playing next to high-usage creators where he can fill in where needed, but he can also up his own usage if need be and still leave a positive and efficient impact on the game. 

This is where context should be added to Kobe Bufkin’s sophomore season at Michigan. As his teammate and projected 1st rounder, Jett Howard, slowed down in production and dealt with injuries later in the year, Bufkin’s offensive load increased tenfold along with his production which didn’t come with a noticeable drop in efficiency either (very much a green flag). In his last 10 games, Bufkin had six games where his usage rate was over 25%, compared to his 23 previous games in the season where he had a total of three games with that high of usage rate. And over those last 10 games, the former four-star prospect averaged 18 ppg shooting 56% from two and 44% from three. 

Bufkin is a pull-up threat from two and three, uses long strides and advanced angles to get to the rim but is a bit better off of actions rather than creating from a standstill in isolation. A wart in Bufkin’s offense is his burst and explosiveness off the dribble which can limit his on-ball effectiveness. His shot will also need to be sped up at the next level, but it is clear the shooting touch is present. 

Where Kobe Bufkin really excels though is the defensive side of the ball where, in my opinion, he is in the top class of perimeter defenders in this draft class. Bufkin’s screen navigation and footwork is just elite on and off the ball. He can slither around screens and recover to get back in front of the ball handler with ease. His 6’8 wingspan mixed with his tenacity at the point of attack can really harass opponents and force misses. His off-ball defense is supreme too, where he is a great communicator, very attentive to all actions on the court, is a good chaser, and an even better rotator. A couple of holes in his defense though is his strength as he can get powered through and sometimes is a bit too aggressive on-ball when defending fast guards and can get burned. Bufkin is pretty much an all-around prospect and will impact winning wherever he lands. 

Leonard Miller, 6-10 PF, G-League Ignite

A year ago, the draft community was saying Leonard Miller had an unorthodox, funky, and questionable play style in terms of translatability to the league. Now, after his instrumental stint with G-League Ignite, I can see crystal clear how Miller can potentially have a big role impacting winning at the next level.  

Standing at 6-10 with an already defined frame, Miller’s work starts in the paint where he is as physical a 19-year-old you’ll see. Miller loves engaging in and playing through contact while going up strong each and every time. He has impeccable touch around the rim with either hand and can make tough layups look easy. With that touch, he also has an impressive floater game that he uses from time to time and again, with either hand. As a natural lefty, you would think Miller would shy away from using his right hand but after watching him finish with his right so many times, I always come back questioning if he really is left-handed. His good touch is also exemplified by his 79% shooting at the free-throw line. Another place Miller thrives is the offensive glass, creating and maintaining good position on the boards to get 2nd opportunities which he makes the most out of. 

That is what he can produce with his eyes closed but where the intrigue comes with Miller is his ability to create advantages from the perimeter at his size plus his finishing ability. He’s still raw in this area of the game and can produce some ugly turnovers and bad possessions, but the flashes are very real. Attacking closeouts for turn-around jumpers, going coast-to-coast in transition after defensive rebounds, and sometimes even creating rim looks from a standstill is why Miller’s stock has continued to rise throughout the year. Also given his proven touch on the interior and at the line, there is hope that one day he’ll be able to stretch that out to three. He does have a pretty wacky form but shooting 33% from three for the year gives a solid floor that teams can trust to work from. 

Miller’s biggest drawback however is his defense where he has grown throughout the year to be fair but can look lost on defense a lot of the time. His defense will potentially limit him from sliding down and giving positive minutes at the center position because his rim protection skills, well they just aren’t great to say the least. And if you want to switch with Miller, he has shown of bad possessions just not being able to stay with smaller players on the perimeter and giving up drives way too easily. 

As far as his fit on the Lakers, Miller would slot in as a bigger forward off the bench who would help a ton with rebounding and just potential size mismatches. He could play alongside Anthony Davis where Miller’s defensive miscues won’t be as detrimental with Davis on the backline. While the Toronto product is not the shot in the dark he once was, he will still command a lot of development time for him to reach his fullest potential.

Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 SG/SF, Pepperdine

Hailing from the Lakers’ backyard in Southern California, the team should be very familiar with Maxwell Lewis and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he is the name called at pick #17 on draft night. At a macro-level, Lewis looks like your prototypical, long and rangy 3nD prospect with a bit of upside but looking closely, it’s not as black and white as it may seem.

The intrigue with Lewis is his offense and how he has the ability to do more than your prototypical 3nD role player. Lewis already possesses a solid handle with a silky-smooth jumpsuit where he loves to pull up from midrange and beyond the arc. Lewis only shot 35% from three this year which is a bit on the lower side for a prospect that’s shooting is supposed to be his strong skill, but the touch on his jumper and ability to get them off quickly has given me faith in the shooting in the long run—also Lewis shot an impressive 43% on catch and shoot threes this season. He also can shoot off of a variety of looks with the pull-up being his go-to but can also shoot off of step backs, sidesteps, PnR, and off of movement off-ball.

Lewis works well as a secondary/tertiary player in the offense attacking bent defenses where he can exploit the creases and get good looks. He is a solid passer in these situations and has some burst and explosiveness to attack the rim in these situations as well. Lewis shot a really nice 61% at the rim this season and with his frame, it is a bit surprising, but he uses his length really well around the rim and takes long, unorthodox strides to throw off defenders when finishing. He is another player where he is much better when getting looks off of actions and attacking off of other player’s primary attacks rather than creating something alone from a standstill. He’s not going to generate that much separation off the dribble but he’s adept enough at scoring to put the ball in the basket either way.

On the defensive side is where Maxwell Lewis falls short of that 3nD label. Lewis’ consistency and attentiveness on that end of the court is definitely something he will have to improve upon throughout the course of his career. His technique can be refined a bit as well, as he can let ball handlers drive too easily without much resistance which will be something he could get subbed out for immediately in the NBA. Lewis has the frame and solid enough athleticism to be a plus defender but is missing a few key intangibles that people can take for granted with great or even good defenders. But with the coaching in this league, I would expect Lewis to improve upon his defense rather quickly upon his arrival in the big leagues.

As a fit on the Lakers, Maxwell Lewis provides another option in the wing room which the team has desperately needed for a couple of years now. With one year of NBA development already down for Max Christie, it would be fun to see those two on the wings alongside the superstar duo with Lewis being the more offensive-inclined wing and Christie being more defensive-inclined.

Cason Wallace, 6-4 PG/SG, Kentucky

With the departure of Alex Caruso in the 2021 offseason, the Lakers have had trouble replacing the defensive presence the former fan favorite brought to the team at the guard position. But getting Cason Wallace a few years later would be a hell of a replacement in that area. 

Wallace is a tough, rugged 6-4 guard with all of the hustle intangibles you can think of. Fights for every loose ball, is the first one on the floor, knows where to be at all times, and is just a smart and physical defender. With Wallace’ frame, it allows him to guard up in position so that he can take on taller wings and even some forwards and still have success defending them. Where Wallace really excels on the defensive end though is off of the ball where he can be a nuisance to the opposition at all times. He’s an elite weakside rim protector for the guard position and is seemingly always in position to make a play on the ball no matter where he is. He is that rare mix of always being a steady, smart defender while also being a defensive playmaker which just leads to him being a massive positive whenever he’s on the court. A couple drawbacks on his defense though is his screen navigation as he can get caught up on more screens than you would like and also he isn’t as nimble to stay with super quick guards which could hinder his versatility on that end. 

Now onto the offensive end where the totality of Wallace’s game really shines and makes him such a good guard prospect. Wallace can operate on or off the ball and spent a lot of time doing both throughout the year. As Kentucky starting point guard, Sahvir Wheeler, got injured midway through the season, Wallace, who was starting at the shooting guard position, slotted down to play point and his impact remained large. After averaging 3.5 assists per game to 1.9 turnovers playing alongside Wheeler, in the last 10 games of Kentucky’s season with Wheeler out, Wallace averaged 5.8 assists per game to only 2.6 turnovers. His already solid playmaking was able to perk up without also seeing a spike in turnovers as well which is a great sign.

Wallace is very comfortable operating in the pick-and-roll game making reads, or being a scorer. He has a professional midrange pull-up game he loves going to and is a great finisher as well, shooting 71% at the rim (!!!) this season. His steady rim pressure he can provide is what also makes him a constant positive when on the court. His 3PT shooting will be a talking point as that part of his game fluctuated a great deal throughout the season. In his first 16 games of the season, Wallace shot 42% from three but in his last 16 games of the season, he shot 25% from three so the truth is in the eye of the beholder. And from going on priors and what I’ve seen from Wallace going back to high school, I am a firm believer that he’ll become at least an average shooter at the next level (which is 36% from three). 

His fit on the Lakers would be very seamless as the roster has needed some defensive size and athleticism in the backcourt which Wallace definitely brings. Whether it would be to outright take Dennis Schroder’s backup PG role or play him next to a PG, Wallace should fit in where needed and LeBron should be more than welcomed to add another quick processing athlete to the team.

Jett Howard, 6-8 F, Michigan

Who would I be the absolute least surprised to hear the Lakers choose with the #17 pick? That would be nonother than Jett Howard, who attended Rob Pelinka’s alma mater and is also a son of Juwan Howard, Pelinka’s former teammate on the “Fab Five” Michigan teams in the 90s. Over the past couple of years when it comes to adding people to the Lakers organization whether it’s in the front office or on the court, the Lakers have shown to go with people they are familiar with and those who already have ties within the organization. I mean Rob Pelinka himself got the general manager position with his most prominent prior experience being that he was Kobe Bryant’s agent.

However, that isn’t to say that Jett would purely be a nepotism pick because he gives the Lakers one specific skill they have and always will desire—shooting. Jett Howard is one of the premier catch-and-shoot players in the class, shooting 39% on catch-and-shoot 3s this season. At his height and at the forward position, this can be a luxury to have slotted in between two rim pressure gods in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Howard is also able to excel with shooting off of movement in screening actions which can warp defenses to a certain degree and open up offenses to new possibilities. Along with the shooting, Howard has shown the capabilities to be a good secondary playmaker as well, being able to make nice dump-off passes or make solid kick-outs for threes.

His on-ball game is a bit divisive in the draft community though as he does possess a nice handle to create a solid amount of looks on his own, but the drawback is those looks are mostly all tough shots over defenders. Howard does not possess a great deal of burst at the point of attack, and it limits him in situations where he is looking to create. This also limits the range of shots at his disposal where most of the time, he resorts to tough midrange or 3PT pull-ups instead of getting good looks at the rim because his athleticism just doesn’t allow him to in standstill isolations. With him being a 6-8 forward, it was surprising to see Howard with only six total dunk attempts this season and only 47 attempts at the rim overall.

And while offensively he wasn’t perfect, defense should be Jett’s main priority in terms of what to improve over the course of his rookie NBA season because it was rough. With Jett already not being the best athlete, it would need to take a lot of clever technique, effort, and engagement to overcome that deficit and Jett really didn’t show much of those three essentials. Howard really struggled to contain drives on the perimeter and at times was a target for opposing guards to go after and attack. Already not having the best foot speed, Howard compounds that by having poor technique when defending the ball, not being in a proper stance when guarding and subconsciously giving up a lane that guards can attack. Howard also doesn’t provide much resistance when defending the post and can be moved around pretty easily there as well.

And the last thing that Howard will have to improve upon is his rebounding. Averaging 2.8 rebounds per game for the full season is just not acceptable for a 6-8 forward who will be depended on to help with rebounding no matter what team he goes to. Howard had poor box-out tendencies throughout the year and let his man easily get around him for offensive rebounds a number of times. While Jett Howard in theory would be a great fit between LeBron and AD with his shooting and secondary playmaking, it would be instrumental for him to improve his game around the edges so that he isn’t just a one-trick pony.

Fits for #47

• Amari Bailey, 6-4 G, UCLA
  • Local freshman product whose potential was being untapped throughout the year. Dribble/pass/shoot guard with athleticism and good defensive frame.
• Jalen Slawson, 6-7 F, Furman
  • Savvy upperclassman with great defensive instincts and 7-0 wingspan. Above average ball-handler and decision-maker for his size, great passer in DHO, Delay, Elbow actions.
• Mouhamed Gueye, 6-11 F/C, Washington St.
  • Fluid athlete for his size. Developing shot with nice form, solid ball skills for size and solid rim protector with 7-3 wingspan. Live athlete as well, gets off the floor quickly.
• Toumani Camara, 6-8 F/C, Dayton
  • All-around, modern PF. Great interior finisher and offensive rebounder with solid outside shot and can attack closeouts. Great athlete with defensive mobility.
• Nikola Djurisic, 6-8 G, Mega Basket
  • Great tools and feel being a 6-8 guard but underwhelmed statistically overseas. In theory, is a dribble/pass/shoot tall guard but is a bet on development.
• Julian Strawther, 6-7 SF, Gonzaga
  • Knockdown shooter at the wing position and is a great rebounder. Average across the board pretty much everywhere else though.

It should also be mentioned that this could all be for naught if the Lakers end up trading their pick(s) for a proven rotation player. Given LA hasn’t picked in the 1st round since 2018 (Moritz Wagner being the pick at #25), it definitely wouldn’t be shocking if they elect to go the trade route again, but I also could see them wanting to get back to drafting high-quality young talent. As Jovan Buha of The Athletic reported, “The most likely outcome is the Lakers keeping the No. 17th pick, according to multiple team sources not authorized to speak publicly.” At the end of the day though, the Lakers’ front office and drafting department hasn’t done much wrong in recent years, so I trust them to make a good selection no matter who it is. Whoever they see worthy enough to fit in and develop alongside the two stars, I have full confidence in that player just like the front office will. 

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The post Ep 17: Leonard Miller, Ready for Liftoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

This is part two of their conversation with Neema, the first part can be found in Episode 5 covering the prospects on the Houston Rockets.

The post Ep. 6: Scoot Henderson and the G-League Ignite with @findingneema23 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The post Leonard Miller appeared first on Swish Theory.

In Henderson, Nevada, the G League Ignite team looks to enter its third season as an organization. The development program has spent the last two seasons in flux, with many outside the organization questioning whether or not the team is effective in its goals or what they may even be. Now, with a rebrand that establishes the team with a home and identity, Team Ignite is here to prove their goal of creating consummate professionals who are willing to go through whatever it takes to improve.

A Real Home

Moving to the Vegas suburb full-time, “we have a home,” remarked a relieved-sounding Assistant Coach Rod Baker in an exclusive interview. Coach Baker is entering his second season with Team Ignite after previously being a scout for the 76ers. “Last year… even though Vegas was supposed to be our home, it really wasn’t.” In the previous season, G League Ignite spent training days out of Walnut Creek, California, the team’s original home when first established in April 2020. Team Ignite played their home games out of the Michelob ULTRA Arena at Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas, but they spent the latter half of the season traveling the United States on the “Ignite Tour.” Now, the team has moved entirely to the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, with a purple and black rebrand that will reignite the organization. “Shock the System,” the new slogan says. This slogan indicates that Team Ignite is ready to change the system of pre-NBA basketball and is creating an atmosphere that the team has not had before, one of an organization that knows its identity.

The Last Two Seasons

In previous years, G League Ignite has had plenty of criticism for the structure that they’ve established. In the first season, the bubble environment was not adequate for scouting the prospects, and their short season forced scouts to make decisions on very small sample sizes. While top prospects Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga still managed to see themselves become top-10 picks, other highly touted prospects Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix slipped in placement after poor outings in just a few games. In season two, there may have been even less stability. The team was consistently on the road, and the games were often not taken seriously due to the exhibition-centric schedule. “It was almost like you’re playing a scrimmage,” said Director of Performance Ernest DeLosAngeles, also speaking exclusively to Swish Theory. Ernest oversees all aspects of physical development and performance for Team Ignite. “They knew they weren’t going to play in the [championship], so they were just playing these games with nothing really to play for.”

Coach Rod Baker echoed this sentiment: “It was difficult [to win]. It seemed like every game was an exhibition game. When we would come to town…[the NBA competition] would send their guys down and stack their [G League affiliate]. Because it was us.” The tougher competition, mixed with the intense travel schedule, led to a challenging season for the team and saw some players’ draft stock take a hit. Namely, former #2 ranked by RSCI recruit Jaden Hardy, who fell to the 37^th pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. However, with a home in Henderson, Coach DeLosAngeles and Coach Baker feel that the new sense of stability will benefit the team as they embark on a full G League schedule for the team’s first time in history. 

Finding Prospects

When it comes to selecting prospects for the team, Team Ignite makes sure they are bringing in players that fit their brand. Being in Vegas can raise questions, especially for a team housing many young players, but Coach Baker feels like it is a non-issue. “They don’t have a ‘get in trouble’ gene,” he said, “we want character guys who come from character families who see this as an opportunity to realize their dreams.” And character guys they are. Last season, many were shocked by the rise of MarJon Beauchamp, a former 4-star recruit out of Yakima, Washington, who had previously fallen out of love with basketball. After a year of training at Chameleon BX and re-finding himself and his passion for the game through religion, MarJon became a Junior College star at Yakima Community College. G League Ignite then offered him an opportunity to play pro, and he flourished in his role. “We did not run one play for MarJon,” said Coach Baker. However, his hard work ethic and constant on-court effort made him a first-round pick. 

Many of the players that come through the Ignite program exude a similar work ethic and aspiration to get better. When asked what all the prospects have had in common in the last three years, Coach DeLosAngeles responded with “[their] genuine interest in getting better.” Team Ignite has pitched its program as an opportunity to become a professional. This team allows young prospects to separate themselves from the college lifestyle, learn NBA sets, and play with NBA rules against some of the best talents in the world. Unlike the alternative of playing internationally, they can play in the United States, under the NBA umbrella, and reap the rewards of these resources. “[We are] instilling professional habits in them,” Coach DeLosAngeles continued, “that’s been the best feedback I’ve gotten from across the league. [The prospects]…have already developed those habits.”

Former Ignite alumni like Dyson Daniels and Jalen Green have exhibited this willingness to learn. Dyson Daniels and Pelicans Assistant Coach Fred Vinson have built a rapport with one another as they consistently work on Daniels’ shooting form. After the first preseason game of the 2022 season, Jalen Green said in a postgame interview, “I try to be as coachable as possible.” The players on Team Ignite recognize their flaws as players and are willing to improve their game and give into a routine. 

However, these players aren’t just highly driven, hard-working, and ready to learn. A sense of confidence comes with taking the G League route over a more traditional college experience. Players are betting on themselves, their ability to soak up information, and their willingness to improve by opting to play pro and losing their amateur status. While the G League does offer a salary, many have worried about how the new Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules could affect future G League Ignite recruitment. NIL rules allow college athletes to profit off their name, image, and likeness, and these laws are still expanding and being manipulated today due to being very new and causing an extreme shift in the amateur landscape.

The NIL implementation has already made waves in college basketball, with players like Ant Black being recruited to Arkansas via a Walmart deal or Nigel Pack getting $800k to play two seasons at the University of Miami. Many believe these laws have already impacted Team Ignite’s recruitment, with them getting zero single-year prospects out of American high schools this season. Coach Rod Baker, however, believes it is a non-issue. “We don’t even really think about it,” Coach Baker said, “if you’re coming here just for the money, it’s not going to work.” Team Ignite has managed to narrow down its list of potential players simply by having them accept offers at NCAA institutions with promises of money in return. While Ignite pays a salary, the commitment to the program is about getting better in a pro setting, not solely immediate financial gain. “You’re going to come to Ignite to realize your dreams,” Coach Baker continued, “it’s the difference between short and long money.”

Putting Together a Team

So far, Team Ignite has had a pretty good track record of getting players drafted. In two years, the team has had six players get drafted, and two receive two-way contracts immediately after draft day. This season, the team has its most diverse roster to date, with veterans who fit the mold of the team’s vision. “We wanted to get younger [veterans],” Coach Baker said. “We wanted to get guys who can still impact the game, and I think we’ve done that.” In previous seasons, the veteran slots were often allotted to older players, many of whom have looked to make a move into the Player Development space. Former G League Ignite alumni Jarrett Jack and Reggie Hearn have secured Player Development positions with teams. Last year’s roster of Pooh Jeter, Amir Johnson, and, for a short time, CJ Miles, showed that G League Ignite was willing to bring in older veterans to mentor their players.

However, even with Jeter remaining a member of the roster, this year’s team seems to have pivoted to younger players who still have plenty of experience. Newly added 31-year-old John Jenkins brings in a shooting prowess that team Ignite missed while also having a unique path from which the prospects can learn. Jenkins was a first-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2012, playing seven seasons on and off in the NBA before playing for BCM Gravelines-Dunkerque in France. Sharpshooters Aubrey Dawkins and Cameron Young are both in their mid-twenties, spending most of their careers in the G League or overseas. Marcus Graves spent last season with the Stockton Kings, and provides Team Ignite with another ball-handler who can make plays. Eric Mika and James Southerland round out the veterans, who have had lengthy careers overseas. This new group of veterans has come from many walks of life but are all at G League Ignite to get better and mentor these prospects. Their ability to space the floor and move the ball makes them key players for Team Ignite this season.

Training and Mentoring

In terms of the training and mentoring process, Coach DeLosAngeles breaks down how the team goes about training prospects and veterans. “Leading up to the season, we break them into two groups: prospects and veterans.” Coach DeLosAngeles corrects himself, calling the veterans “older guys” because some veterans are still relatively young and early in their careers. “We want [the prospects] to get acquainted with each other, and then we start mixing in the older guys. We make them interact in the weight room.. and we do this strategically based [on] who we thought would be a good mentor for whatever prospect it was.” Many of the prospects this season have come into Team Ignite with more experience than in previous years, and Coach DeLosAngeles has also noticed this go into training. “Everybody’s training is different based on their training age.” Training age is a term many physical trainers use to explain the amount of time an athlete has undergone physical training. The more physical training you have received in your life, the further ahead you are in your training age. This year’s roster has had many players who have been in professional environments.

Because of this, the weight room has come a bit easier, and the players have given in to using training as competitive fuel. “You see the competitive nature [in the players] when given certain tasks in the weight room,” Coach DeLosAngeles said, “that instinct to show up the person next to me.” This competitive drive surrounds Team Ignite, an aura that each member of the team and staff carries with them. And with a fusion of experienced, skilled veterans and some unique prospects, Team Ignite seems poised to take on their incoming season. 

Looking At This Year’s Prospects

As previously mentioned, this year’s class of prospects has an unusual amount of experience coming into G League Ignite. Star player and the projected #2 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson, enters his second season with team Ignite. In his first year, Henderson averaged (per 70) 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. As a two-year player, Henderson spent most of his first season coming off the bench for Ignite. However he often was the best prospect on the court, having multiple 30-point games and taking over games with his high motor and quick reflexes.

Scoot is joined in the backcourt by Frenchman Sidy Cissoko, who has spent his years growing up in the Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz system in Spain. He made his debut for the Baskonia senior team in their 2021-22 season, but was quickly sent to Juarista ICB in the Spanish second league. Cissoko struggled to stand out, but looks to find his niche here with Team Ignite.

In the frontcourt, one of the more promising prospects on the team is Canadian forward Leonard Miller. Although Miller was draft-eligible last season, he opted to take the G League Ignite route after a suboptimal performance at the NBA Draft Combine. Leonard is a 6’11” forward with great ball-handling abilities and quick movements that make him a versatile defender. Miller spent his last year at Fort Erie Academy in Canada, making him the least experienced single-year prospect on G League Ignite this season.

Also in the frontcourt with Miller is Center Efe Abogidi. Abogidi spent two seasons at Washington State University, averaging (per 70), 16.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. An athletic rim runner and rim protector, Efe brings something team Ignite greatly missed last season. He also provides Scoot with a PnR lob threat, a connection that likely will be seen plenty of times throughout the season.

And finally, the last but one of the most intriguing single-year prospects on Team Ignite is Mojave King. King is an Australian swingman who played his previous two years in the National Basketball League (NBL). After a tough season with the Cairns Taipans, King played with the Adelaide 36ers after the departure of Josh Giddey. However, King found himself getting inconsistent minutes, and was put into many situations that did not fit his game. The former NBA Academy standout grew up next to Giddey and former Ignite alumni Dyson Daniels, sometimes even outplaying both of them when sharing the same court. King looks to prove he is right there with the two former top-10 picks and Team Ignite provides him the platform to do so. 

There are also two two-year players on the roster this season. London Johnson is a Jamaican-American from Norcross, Georgia. A former teammate of Scoot Henderson, Johnson is a 6’4” guard with a knack for scoring the basketball. The other two-year prospect is Babacar Sane, a NBA African Academy standout who spent the last season playing in the Basketball Africa League (BAL). In an interview with Andscape, Sane said he sees this as an opportunity to represent the continent of Africa and show what they can do. Babacar’s journey has been one that many in NBA circles have followed, as he has been a part of the Sports for Education and Economic Development (SEED project) for standouts in the NBA academies, and now hopes to become the 2nd African-born player to get drafted from G League Ignite. On integrating the two-year players, Coach Baker reminded of the management of Scoot Henderson in the previous season. “I don’t know if he started any games last year,” Coach said (he started the final two games only), “and this is this guy that’s going to be the number one or two pick in this upcoming draft. Those two-year guys know that their path is a little different [than the one-year players], but it’s about the development.” 

The Upcoming Grind

Now with a full 50-game schedule, there may be more opportunity to develop the two-year players in-game, although some changes will be made when it comes to practice and training. In the last 3 seasons, Team Ignite’s number of games have almost doubled yearly (from 13, to 27, now 53 including exhibitions). The players may now have one of the more rigorous schedules of any of their other draft class counterparts, playing more games with more extensive travel. “The one thing that we focused on was trying to get the guys in a little bit earlier just to build the capacity to be able to handle the demands that they’re going to be faced with the next week,” Coach DeLosAngeles said. This mental and physical preparation is key to not just their G League season, but preparing for the rigor of the NBA. “They gotta get used to the grind,” Coach Baker said, “Packing that suitcase, unpacking that suitcase…getting to the plane, getting to the arena, all those things they’re going to have to get used to.” With the added travel and extra games, Coach Baker recognizes some of the loss that comes with it. “For me, it’s 20 less days of practice which is 20 less days of development.” However, the additional playing experience will help offset this loss of practice, as the players get more meaningful reps and more chances to showcase their abilities.

Team Ignite opened their season with two exhibition games against Metropolitans-92 and top prospect Victor Wembanyama. The teams split the games in what was one of the best showings of basketball in recent memory. The two top prospects in Wembanyama and Henderson went at each other in the first game, trading buckets and defensive stops, each taking over the game whenever they pleased. In the second game however, Henderson went down early with an ankle injury after a collision with Wembanyama, and Mets-92 managed to hold off Team Ignite to secure the win, despite great showings by Mojave King and Leonard Miller. Now, the team starts their G League season on November 4th against the Oklahoma City Blue in their regular season debut at their new home in Henderson. 

Setting Up The Future

When it comes to the on-court production, the team tries to play their prospects in roles that will translate to the NBA, something that many other teams cannot provide. “Not everybody is going to be Jalen Green,” says Coach Baker, “what role are you going to play when you get [to the NBA]? That’s what we’re trying to prepare them for.” What Team Ignite has done in the last two seasons is provide an alternate avenue for pre-NBA basketball, however this next season proves to have a greater meaning. Without distractions of college or NIL, and now with an identity and a home in Henderson, G League Ignite allows the players an opportunity to focus solely on basketball and self-improvement. “It’s about getting better,” said Coach Baker. “Try and build as many good habits as you can,” echoes Coach DeLosAngeles. 

The staff is dedicated to improving the players to be the best in their roles on and off the court. G League Ignite is molding players who understand how to become the best they can be. With a class of upstanding talent, they look to prove once again that they are here to shock the system.

The post Shock The System: The 2023 G-League Ignite appeared first on Swish Theory.