Memphis Grizzilies Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/memphis-grizzilies/ Basketball Analysis & NBA Draft Guides Mon, 25 Nov 2024 15:18:52 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9 https://i0.wp.com/theswishtheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Memphis Grizzilies Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/memphis-grizzilies/ 32 32 214889137 Finding a Role: 2024-25 Introduction https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2024/11/finding-a-role-2024-25-introduction/ Mon, 25 Nov 2024 15:17:47 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=13691 Our own Charlie Cummings started Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series at the start of last season, the title being self-explanatory: While much of our collective player-analysis brainpower goes into identifying the future stars of the NBA, the meat-and-potatoes of successful talent evaluation happens within the league’s middle-class. Boston’s Derrick White and Denver’s Aaron Gordon ... Read more

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Our own Charlie Cummings started Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series at the start of last season, the title being self-explanatory: While much of our collective player-analysis brainpower goes into identifying the future stars of the NBA, the meat-and-potatoes of successful talent evaluation happens within the league’s middle-class.

Boston’s Derrick White and Denver’s Aaron Gordon may be high-end examples, but does Dallas make the Finals last season without journeyman Derrick Jones Jr.? Does Miami make it the year before without Caleb Martin?

With that in mind, here is Part One of my Finding a Role Introduction for this season, where I’ll be tracking some of the league’s rising (potential) difference-makers. We live in the here and now, of course, focusing on how Player X can earn more minutes and dollars by increasing his value to his current team, but keep in mind the long-term undercurrent: Can these guys show up as high-end contributors on championship-level teams? How are they going to get there?

Additionally, this season’s installments of Finding a Role would not be possible without crowdscout.net, the brainchild of Swish Theory co-founder Eric Weiss (and company), a truly game-changing way to watch and catalogue film from around the NBA.

Click on the linked playlists for the CrowdScout Experience, and more context on each of these players.

Tari Eason

After being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, Tari Eason immediately made a name for himself by playing real hard and annoying the hell out of most of his opponents throughout his rookie season. However, his sophomore season was ended after just 22 appearances due to lower-leg injury troubles. First a stress fracture, then a surgery to address a benign growth in his shin. Not ideal.

But that sample of play — in addition to his start in 2024-25 — is more than enough to define Eason within Houston’s over-crowded room of young players a leap or two away from changing their careers.

Offense: Bow-Tyer (playlist)

Tari Eason is built like an athlete. He’s listed as 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, and between that and his aggressive defensive style, which we’ll cover, he’s subject to type-casting on offense. Yes, he can crash the glass and finish transition opportunities above-the-rim, but Eason has room to grow into a connective role on that end. Throughout his first two seasons, he showed considerable court-mapping and decision-making prowess despite a relative lack of possessing the ball.

This cut-and-kick creates a corner-three for Houston, and while he perhaps misses a real tough, high-value dump-off to Alperen Şengün, it showcases some skills Eason should tap into more:

Tari will make to the rim if he sees the back of his defender’s head, and he can find the open shooters in transition. This play stands out not because it’s anything ground-breaking, but because he identifies where the advantage will be early. The drive-and-kick itself becomes pretty simple:

There’s really no reason, then, for his career-assist-rate to be hovering below 8%. Eason doesn’t have to be late-career Andre Iguodala in year three, but he’s shown too much court-awareness to have none of his passing stats pop. Yes, he often stands in the corner in Houston’s half-court offense, but ending the closeouts he does attack with extra passes and even higher-value looks for teammates has to be a focus.

However, it bodes well that Eason is finishing strong at the rim to start 2024-25, perhaps invigorated by a successful rehab process. Cleaning the Glass is tracking him at 48-of-66, or 73% on shots at the rim this season, up from his previous career-mark of 56% on 415 attempts.

It’s early. But Eason looks to be a merely competent 3-point threat on low volume, shooting in the mid-30s without many attempts off the dribble or off movement (though it’s worth noting he is just 250 attempts into his career).

Eason has never had a problem getting to the paint, but he hasn’t always pressed the right button to get there. Occasionally he doesn’t leverage his physicality into an advantage, opting for a slow-step or euro type of finish that diminishes his athletic traits. Often times, he’s stunted by a lack of flexibility in his handle, forced to pick the ball up one dribble too soon.

For now, though, he’s solving the issue, and flashing signs of tying the bow on top of Houston’s offense. He can handle in transition, cut to the rim or get there off a closeout or offensive board, and for now, he’s finishing those possessions. Becoming a more consistent passer is the key, and that’ll open up opportunities to get him in the short-roll as a screener or ball-handler in some inverted actions.

Defense: Ball-Hawk (playlist)

Simple. He rebounds everything, and yeah, he may foul a lot, but Eason is currently in the 100th percentile for steal- and block-rate for his position in 2024-25, per Cleaning the Glass. Passing lanes, pick-pockets, swipe-downs, contests as the low-man, you name it, Tari does it.

There is a flip-side, in that he’s occasionally beat on his gambling, and he’s not always in the right positions when it comes to scramble-mode or communicating with his teammates. Last season, playing against the Indiana Pacers, Eason was occasionally tasked with guarding Buddy Hield. He did okay, but it showed that his skillset is more tailored to helping off a non-shooting threat rather than being responsible for the deadliest shooter on the floor. On this play, he survives poor screen-navigation at first, though that’s an admittedly bigger problem than biting on the ball-fake when helps on a drive:

(It’s tough to help off Buddy Hield.)

Houston hasn’t always had the rim-protection to insulate some of his gambling tendencies, though Şengün is looking sturdier in 2024-25 but Eason’s ball-hawking nature is too valuable to be constricted.

This end of the floor is a bit easier to predict for Tari Eason. Unless he’s playing in handcuffs, he’s going to rack up the deflections as a long-armed athlete with plus-anticipation skills. Molding those desirable skills into a team-context where he can more comfortably navigate switches and make funky rotations is an obvious key for him.

Playlist: https://crowdscout.net/p?p=01934941-a5b0-7990-9c53-069a08998d21&i=3329457)

Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick is here to shoot the rock.

Offense: Loose Dynamite (Playlist)

He’s 6’7″ with a high release point, and has shown stretches of being the shot-maker the Toronto Raptors envisioned when they took him out of University of Kansas in the 2023 NBA Draft. As with any shooter, Dick needs to improve on the margins: making the right choice when defenses run him off the 3-point line, not falling too in love with that mid-range pull-up, finishing at the rim, et cetera.

But Gradey has scored 25-plus points five times in his career, and they’ve all come in the early stages of the 2024-25 season. Opportunity has abounded with Scottie Barnes and others missing considerable time for Toronto, but think about the archetype here. Gradey didn’t just stand in the corner and wait to capitalize on advantages that weren’t created, he went out and got 20 shots.

Dick’s shown some malleability off that high release-point, and the anticipation/hand-eye to convert opportunies that he otherwise couldn’t, given a fairly uninspiring athletic profile. On this pair of buckets, he first push-dribbles through a dig, then drops a tough turnaround over Rudy Gobert before floating a moon-ball over him the next time down:

Is this Dick’s ideal shot-profile? No. Does it indicate that he get create real looks for himself outside the limited context of a less threatening stand-in-the-corner white guy? Absolutely.

Gradey’s always going to be a little reliant on organized offense to get his looks off; pin-downs with correct spacing, setting a ball-screen -> coming off a flare, etc. However, on a healthy Raptors team with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley most often toting the rock, Gradey’s gonna need to find other ways to get his shots off. His growing ability to find his spots bodes well.

Of course, making the right decisions when attacking closeouts is paramount, but look for Gradey to keep firing all sorts of 3-point looks. Hopefully, he can use his anticipation and hand-eye skills to find crevasses to get to the rim a tad more, though that floater will be a real weapon for years to come. Ideally, Gradey Dick is a loose stick of dynamite; handle him with improper care and watch your house burn down.

Defense: Chain Link (Playlist)

Gradey Dick isn’t going to become a lockdown defender on the ball, but he’s going to have to bleed a little less on the perimeter. His foot-speed and short-space explosiveness is just alright, so it’s tough when the NBA’s shiftiest guards reject screens on him and whatnot. Here, he deftly switches a screen and then chases Anthony Edwards, of all people, through another one, but Ant dusts him with a simple-jab:

Of course, Gradey Dick cannot give up baseline on this play, and that worry is a part of what sends him flying, in addition to, you know. That play is the result of an off-ball switch, and while the Toronto Raptors won’t ask Gradey Dick to guard all the opponent’s most threatening players, he’ll be put in some uncomfortable situations.

In the meantime, Gradey Dick has to continue communicating with his teammates and showing in the right spots, something he’s done a nice job of for a player early in his second season.

Vince Williams Jr.

Vince Williams Jr. missed the first month of the Memphis Grizzlies season recovering from a stress fracture in his tibia, then returned for three games before spraining his ankle, which will cause him to miss around another month of action. Tough times for one of the league’s funkiest third-year players.

Offense: Gap Filler (Playlist)

In the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the Memphis Grizzlies deployed Vince as a fairly typical wing who was just getting his feet wet with consistent rotational minutes. Then, as the injuries continued to mount and Vince’s skillset became a bit clearer, he blossomed into something of a point-forward, racking up high-assist totals throughout the spring. It’s easy to see why:

Vince struggles to truly separate/blow by defenders with a live-dribble, but if there is an advantage available to him, he will make any sort of pass to get it done. ‘Ambitious’ is the word that comes to mind.

Vince could use a few more live-dribble counters to get to his spots; right now, he’s almost exclusively able to create out of dribble-handoffs or in transition rather than straight pick-and-roll. However, he did shoot 39% from deep as a willing 3-point shooter in 2023-24, perhaps a bit over his head but more than enough to draw closeouts and give his best skills and opportunity to shine.

In the half-court, he’s either taking those looks (and will pull off the dribble if his defender goes far under the screen) or trying to get all the way to the rim. Because Vince is not the most reactive ball-handler, he has trouble navigating tight spaces. While that limits his ability to consistently lay the ball up, his approach is at least partly why Memphis felt so comfortable giving him more responsibility.

Vince will make sure Memphis achieves its desired shot-profile if the ball is in his hands. He will either pass to or shoot from the high-value areas of the court. Sure, he can cut and shoot off-the-ball sufficiently; he’ll make inspiring extra passes. But Vince flies with some decision-making on his shoulders; the short-term question is how he’s going to do this while playing next to Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and even the vaguely similar Marcus Smart.

Defense: Playmaker (Playlist)

I described Vince Williams Jr. as a funky third-year player not just as a term of admiration for his offensive play-style, but his defense too. Memphis tasked Vince with face-guarding their opponent’s best player for damn-near full games last season. From Kyrie Irving to Kevin Durant, Vince was guarding his man often with his back turned to the ball, almost like the football player he’s built like.

This encapsulates the VWJ experience on defense; he’s not always the most nimble at the point-of-attack, and he’s not racking up the deflections quite like Tari Eason, but he is a playmaker nonetheless. Vince is fantastic at contesting shots all over the court, but his verticality and ridiculous +7 wingspan really plays at the rim:

Despite his fundamentally sound skills there, Vince can be a bit of a risk-taker on the perimeter, and frequent gambles and pokes at the ball puncture holes in his point-of-attack defense. A tad too often, offensive players are able to create space by bumping him off course, surprising given his frame and physicality when sticking to guys off the ball.

Where should his skillset meet his role? Indeed, he is a playmaker on defense, with active hands, strong anticipation skills, and an ability to offer secondary rim-protection, but perhaps it is telling that Memphis stuck him on so many bona fide perimeter threats last season. Next to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies may need him to buckle down, get through screens, and move his feet against smaller, shiftier players.

Nearly everything Vince does on a basketball court is interesting, but his role on Memphis’ defense is really something to look out for when he returns from injury.


This has merely been the first part of Finding a Role, 2025. There are a couple boys from Brooklyn I’ve yet to mention, but that will come at a later date.

Meanwhile, I will be re-visiting these three players frequently throughout this season, tracking progress in the aforementioned areas, as they look to establish themselves as upper-middle class NBA players who can make or break a contending front office. Can Gradey Dick’s ancillary offense push a championship-offense over the finish line? Will Tari Eason oversee and control playoff games on both ends of the court? Can Vince Williams Jr. toe the line between experimenting and producing at the highest level?

Those are all long-term questions, but they’ll be answered season-by-season, game-by-game, quarter-by-quarter, and Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series is here to track all of it.

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Lessons from the Draft Cycle https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/07/lessons-from-the-draft-cycle/ Fri, 14 Jul 2023 16:52:48 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=7632 With the first Swish Theory draft cycle in the books, it’s time to recap the cycle in this follow-up to my final piece with The Stepien. Here I’ll be looking at where my personal board diverged from what actually happened, trying to make sense of where I was higher on certain prospects in light of ... Read more

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With the first Swish Theory draft cycle in the books, it’s time to recap the cycle in this follow-up to my final piece with The Stepien. Here I’ll be looking at where my personal board diverged from what actually happened, trying to make sense of where I was higher on certain prospects in light of my value ranking system as well as general team-building philosophy.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG Jackson will get your team buckets

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

  • Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
  • Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
  • Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

Amari Bailey simply making things happen

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

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