It must also be said that these teams have just the right amount of neanderthal DNA to, sure, probably get curb-stomped by OKC in round 2, but to put on a show in the meantime. Through two games, WTF moments in the clutch and jagged edges — like Jokić’s defense and Dunn’s offense…Ben Simmons — have not subtracted intrigue, but added character. With a 1-1 split heading into Thursday’s game 3, each team has lost the game they played better in. These teams are weird! Anyway, let’s get to it.

Denver’s incomplete defense on Kawhi

Let’s start with the big stuff. Kawhi Leonard dropped 39 points in Game 2 after a poor Game 1, and the Denver Nuggets didn’t really adjust how they defended him when he got it going. Though he melted their face off with absurd shot-making, I’ve actually liked Denver’s overall philosophy vs. Kawhi. He got going early in Game 2 by feasting on cross-matches in semi-transition, but the Nuggets didn’t panic because they’ve been conceding switches and loading help toward him anyway.

That’s a fine plan, and they’ve been able to execute it without allowing Kawhi to create easy shots for his teammates, though Kawhi shoulders a chunk of the credit/blame there too. He has not made quick decisions with the ball in his hands.

But that didn’t save Denver in Game 2 because they didn’t finish possessions against Kawhi, hence the “incomplete” tag. The man is inhuman, and has proven that, with healthy legs, he can win series by performing how he did in Game 2, where he shot 15-of-19 from the floor. So Denver has to finish possessions, there is no point in showing help against him if it is indeed just for show (sound on):

Denver shouldn’t fear the possibility of Kawhi putting on a passing clinic by throwing cross-court lasers and manipulating defenders with his eyes. Over his 13 NBA seasons, that’s never been his M.O., and it still isn’t. That’s why LAC stays away from pick-and-roll led by Kawhi, given a near-turnover like this…

Just as important, the Clippers are always playing a poor 3-point shooter. Every single one of Kawhi’s minutes through two games have seen Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., or Ben Simmons on the floor with him, and occasionally two of those guys. Furthermore, any strategy geared toward forcing turnovers and speeding up the Clippers plays to Denver’s advantage.

They recorded the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA this year (PBP Stats) and had, by miles, the lowest 3PA rate. That’s a formula that limits randomness/shooting variance; playing at a slow pace and allowing Kawhi to get up 16 jumpers is not.

The idea of attacking Kawhi is frightening in any context, but in Game 3, Denver just might have to. They’ve thrown a lot his way thus far, but the kitchen sink remains in their back-pocket.

Limiting LAC’s two-man game

Let’s keep it on this end of the floor, where the Harden/Zubac pick-and-roll feasted in Game 1. Harden, looking quite spry, looked to get all the way to the basket, and in the first half, Nikola Jokić often did little more than escort him there…

Since then, Denver has played Jokić much higher up the floor, if not outright trapping or hedging ball-screens. (An awesome, very minor subplot of this series is Harden finding every angle possible to hit Zubac on the roll while Jokić tries to deflect those passes, just about the best hand-eye coordination battle you’ll find.)

The major subplot is what happens once Zu catches the ball, and it feels like both teams have left something on the table here. Zubac can make rudimentary reads quickly enough, and has gotten Kris Dunn a few layups off baseline cuts. However, they’re nobody’s idea of Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. Dunn has struggled to finish under any defensive pressure, and if they can take away his cut, Zubac has struggled to snap to the next read, a kick-out for three. In fact, his best offense has been simply going to work against whoever steps up to meet him.

Harden is key here, too. The more downhill pressure he applies, the deeper Zu’s catch inevitably is, and these two can play pitch-and-catch as well as any tandem…

After that play in Game 2, Jokić played even higher up the floor, and Denver produced the desired effect: Harden largely stopped trying to get downhill, whether by splitting a screen or by attacking Jokic’s outside hip. Can he dial up the pressure in Game 3 if Denver opens in the same coverage?

How much room do Harden, Zubac, and Dunn have to improve from game 2? To me, it’s a reasonable chunk. If Denver feels the same way, they should try to deny Zubac on the roll altogether. In this first play. Michael Porter Jr. helps off of Dunn to deny Zu, and Norm Powell promptly turns the ball over. In the second play, MPJ doesn’t leave DJJ, Zu catches it, and it leads to a wide-open three:

Yes, DJJ is on the strong-side in play #2, but perhaps gambling off him is worth preventing any sort of deep catch for Zubac.

The Harden/Zubac two-man game that so much of LAC’s offense is built around is in a fascinating spot entering Game 3. Each team has reason to adjust; for the Clips it could be setting the screen higher up the floor or making sure a 3-point threat is weak-side corner. Still, “play better” could simply be the adjustment.

If Denver believes the Clippers will indeed play better, they could get funky and put Aaron Gordon on Zubac, Jokić on Dunn, and switch screens. They’ve tried that on a single possessions so far, and it didn’t end well…

They could send more early help to take away Zu’s roll, but they might just feel confident where they’re at. We’ll soon see.

Will Jokić start launching?

As for that infamous two-man game on the other side, the Clippers have done fairly well defending Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić so far. Kris Dunn deserves the lion’s share of the credit, as he’s been responsible for chasing Murray into tight, mid-range spaces, but then switching back out onto Jokić when he pops, otherwise known as a veer-switch. It looks something like this:

Jokić hands him three points, but this is the coverage the Clippers opened with in Game 1, and, 101 minutes of hoop later, they’re still leaning on it. Though Jokić shot 4-of-8 from deep in Game 2, it felt like he ignored five or six clean looks, many coming on pick-and-pops like this.

There are other ways for the Nuggets to counter this defense from the Clippers. Jokić simply rolling to the basket and posting Dunn or Derrick Jones Jr. has led to some favorable isolations for him. It also leads to confusion for Dunn and Zubac, when/if they actually commit to the late switch.

But the nuclear code Jokić could push at any time is something he’s always reluctant to do, and that’s to just let it fly. This coverage seems like a bet from the Clippers that, even if goaded into it, Jokić will not launch 12-15 threes in a game, even if he’s shooting just under 42% from deep, like he did in the regular season.

Late in Game 1, the Clippers went another route, pressuring Jamal Murray while meeting Jokić early on his catches. Nekias Duncan did a great job explaining how the Nuggets roasted that coverage; essentially, the Clips were spread too thin, unable to prevent open looks for capable if not elite shooters, and even less able to grab rebounds…

Have the Clippers already found their favorite answer to the Murray/Jokić love affair? Perhaps. The more juice you can squeeze out of Kris Dunn’s defense, the better. But this strategy also keeps them in their shell, keeps Zubac near the rim, and limits the opportunities for James Harden and Norm Powell to get caught ball-watching as cutters sneak behind them.

The real danger is that Jokić melts the Intuit Dome with a 3-point barrage on Thursday night. Does he want to?

Where’s the other two-man game?

Let’s end with a couple quick bites. In Game 1, the Nuggets targeted James Harden on defense by consistently involving Aaron Gordon with Nikola Jokić, either in off-ball screens or inverted pick-and-roll. Perhaps it’s Gordon’s limp calf, but rookie head coach David Adelman went to those actions far less in Game 2.

Why? Perhaps because Harden is the Clippers’ worst defender.

Let me explain: Per Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets turned it over on a whopping 21.7% of their possessions on Monday, their second-worst mark of the season. Jokić had a rough game with seven of them, and frequently, it was Dunn, Nic Batum, or Kawhi jumping his passing lanes. In other words, the further L.A.’s best defenders were from the ball, the more havoc they wreaked.

The same could not be said of Harden and Powell, who did not provide much help in rotation:

So, with Harden on Gordon, is that why we didn’t see much of Denver’s front-court chemistry in Game 2, or was it an injury? Either way, the Nuggets have to get back to that two-man game, and find Gordon some easy rolls to the rim. The team that shot the highest percentage in the league on shots at the rim (Cleaning the Glass) is shooting just 57% at the rim through two games, which would have ranked as the worst mark in the NBA by light years.

I may know an all-time dunker that can help with that.

Please, Norm

The Clippers will not win this series if Norm Powell and Bogdan Bogdanović continue to struggle so mightily. However, Powell not only hit some huge shots late in the second half on Monday, but was the recipient of an (unscripted) play that stuck in my mind…

It was a rare instance of Norm directly benefiting from the attention his co-stars get, rather than simply trying to emulate them by creating from a stand-still. Even if Jokić isn’t in much drop coverage, the concept still works, getting Norm the ball on the second side with the defense ever-so-slightly out of whack.

There are many more wrinkles to this matchup we could discuss. (Please go look up Kris Dunn’s defensive highlights from this series.) Tyronn Lue has not remotely settled on a substitution pattern, and in Game 2 Ben Simmons was the game’s first sub. Harden also played a chunk of minutes without Kawhi or Zubac, which felt off at the time. The Nuggets are battling injury and fatigue across the board, and seem unsure whether to devote much energy to getting Michael Porter Jr. going.

No matter which of these storylines takes center stage in Game 3 and beyond, we do know that this series has been, and will continue to be awesome.

Prediction: Clippers in 6

The post Round One: Nuggets vs. Clippers appeared first on Swish Theory.

This conference finals matchup is bound to be a great battle focusing on the dualities of each team’s approach. Denver with their offense centering around, well, a center in Nikola Jokić as he’s literally in the middle of everything they do. Whether it be in the middle of the free throw line, on the block, or on the perimeter—when Jokić is on the court, he’s the center of attention, and for very good reason. 

Whereas for LA, their offense is more of an egalitarian approach where their leading scorer, LeBron James, is only at 23.8 points per game for this playoff run, compare that to Jokić who is at 30.7 points per game. James also leads the Lakers in touches at 71.6 per game which pales in comparison to the Nuggets’ two stars with Jokić at 110.9 touches per game (1st in the league this postseason with the difference between #1 and #2 being the difference between #2 and #27) and Jamal Murray at 85.6 (9th in the league this postseason). 

These two teams offer different questions for the other to solve which should make for a super entertaining chess match between two of the league’s best.

Matchups

For Denver:

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on D’Angelo Russell
• Jamal Murray on Austin Reaves
• Michael Porter Jr. on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Aaron Gordon on LeBron James
• Nikola Jokić on Anthony Davis

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Jamal Murray
• D’Angelo Russell on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Michael Porter Jr.
• LeBron James on Aaron Gordon
• Anthony Davis on Nikola Jokić

With Denver having a stout defender in Aaron Gordon to matchup with LeBron, the rest of the frontcourt comes into question. And a question that could have an important outcome in this series is “Who is ‘guarding’ Jarred Vanderbilt?” 

Why should you pay attention to the person guarding a 25% 3PT shooter, you ask? 

Well, it is a question of whether Denver wants to help off of Vanderbilt or hide on Vanderbilt. In LA’s previous series, Vanderbilt’s spacing issues were causing a big problem for the Lakers offense as both series went on, and ultimately reached an inflection point in Game 6 of the 2nd round vs the Golden State Warriors where they pulled the plug on Vanderbilt as a starter and replaced him with Dennis Schröder, the veteran speedy ballhandler. The Warriors were helping off of Vanderbilt at any chance they could get if that meant it would slow down an attack from LeBron or Davis. And well, I would assume that would be the same approach from Denver and the Eastern Conference team the Lakers would face if they make it to the Finals. 

However, Denver is known to mix up their matchups particularly when it comes to who Jokić is assigned to. Jokić had multiple sequences in their series against Phoenix where he was guarding a non-shooter like Josh Okogie and it threw an interesting wrench into the Suns’ offense when it happened. 

As for the Lakers, these are the standard matchups and I would not be surprised if these are different even in Game 1. With Vanderbilt’s questionable fit alongside LeBron and AD, Darvin Ham could look to another starter to begin this series and would change the matchups completely. But if Vanderbilt still does start, I could definitely see him guarding either one of Murray or Porter Jr. as the coaching staff pretty much trusts him on anybody. 

As Davis will have his hands full with Jokić, I would look to LeBron guarding Gordon to a similar degree that the Nuggets will guard Vanderbilt and also how the Lakers guarded players on the Warriors and Grizzlies — simple not caring if they were to launch threes. LeBron’s best defensive role for a good amount of years now is as a helper and potential roamer where he can be a pest in passing lanes, take charges in driving lanes, and come over for huge blocks if that is the last resort. LeBron will also have to be wary though of Gordon’s cutting and his impeccable chemistry with Jokić where the latter will find the former as soon as there is an opening in the defense. 

Denver’s Advantages

Going into this matchup as the #1 offense in the playoffs, Denver will pose a different threat to the Lakers’ defense they really haven’t seen this postseason. Not only is it pretty post-centric but the guy that can post up can also space you out and that could be the real concern. 

In the recent years of Jokić’s dominance throughout the league, which incidentally came after the loss to the Lakers in the 2020 Bubble, he has been a tough matchup for AD and he is of the build of player that AD can have trouble against. With his high center of gravity, Davis can often look light when going against bulky 7-footers will a low center of gravity and they can move him around a bit. Guys like Jokić, Ivica Zubac, or Jusuf Nurkić all fit the description and have given AD more trouble than you would think from a defensive player of his caliber. While Davis will definitely make him work, I think Jokić will have the edge over him in those 1-on-1 battles in the post that will inevitably happen.

If Jokić is not in the post, however, he can still stretch Davis out with his ability to shoot and if Davis provides no pressure to Jokic on the perimeter, it will give him ample amounts of time to read the floor and play make as one of the league’s best in that category. This will be a challenge the Lakers will have to solve throughout the series since they won their first two series by stationing Anthony Davis near the rim as best as they could through all methods and it worked to near perfection. With Jokić operating a lot from the top of the key and elbow, that alone can pull Davis out from under the rim and other Nuggets’ players will feel much more free at the rim when Davis’ presence isn’t near. 

Denver is also a more controlled and secure offense in comparison to the Grizzlies and Warriors who both ranked in the bottom-7 in most turnovers per game by playoff teams, meanwhile, Denver ranks 1st, giving up the fewest amount of turnovers this postseason. This matters a ton for the success rate of the Lakers’ defense of course but also hinders their transition game as well if they don’t turn the Nuggets over enough. 

With Aaron Gordon’s phenomenal work on Kevin Durant in Denver’s previous series, he will be a formidable defender to have the LeBron assignment. Strangely enough, Gordon is one of the few defenders who actually match up in stature and frame to LeBron which could provide an interesting challenge for the legend at this stage of his career. 

I expect Denver to be flying up the court in transition at every opportunity that arises. The Lakers’ transition defense has left a lot to be desired with the number of athletes and high-IQ players on the team. If Denver is able to fly in transition while also being a problem in the halfcourt offense and on the offensive glass, they could spell trouble for the underdogs very quickly.

Lakers’ Advantages

Throughout the LeBron and AD era, the Lakers have had one offensive identity—attack the rim. In the regular season, the Nuggets allowed the 3rd highest FG% at the rim and it has always been a weakness of theirs in recent years. In the regular season with LeBron and AD both healthy and playing, the Lakers have had a 4-1 record over the Nuggets since 2019-20 and that doesn’t include the 4-1 series win over Denver in the Bubble. During the regular season and postseason, the Lakers have always been a tough matchup for the Nuggets although this year, Denver is fielding easily their best supporting cast around Jokić since his birth as a star in this league. 

Rim protection is one of Jokić’s biggest weaknesses as a player and the Lakers will make sure to exploit that when they have the chance. With LeBron and AD being two of the best rim attackers in the league, I’m sure their minds will be made up on getting to the rim and it will be up to the Nuggets to stop them from getting there which was their plan in that 2020 series. 

In that 2020 Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets stunted extremely hard off the Lakers’ role players whenever LeBron had the ball in a concerted effort to make him beat them off of jumpers and it was a good strategy. Before Game 5, LeBron only averaged 24 points per game and in Game 4, he shot 7-of-18 from the field. But in Game 5, James had one of those statement games where he reminds you that sometimes, it just doesn’t matter. 

That’s how the previous series ended off and one might ask, what has changed since then? Well, the Lakers have shooters. And those shooters are also ballhandlers that can create for themselves and for others. And LeBron is not as on-ball dominant as he once was which can throw the defense for a loop in that his attack will not be as predictable. 

In the December 16th matchup between the two teams, LeBron how devastating that versatile skillset can be especially when he has a favorable matchup at the rim. He killed Denver on cuts through the defense when the attention shifted off of his which made for some highlight dunks and uber-efficient possessions. 

With this current version of LeBron in the postseason, I think we could see this a lot as a way of offense for him when not creating on-ball like so many of us are used to him doing. 

And while there is so much talk around how the Lakers will guard the Nuggets, Denver will probably be the most advantageous defense to the Lakers that they will see this postseason. In the Grizzlies and Warriors series which feature two top defenses and two All-Defensive defenders, the Lakers got stuck in the mud a few times and the other teams were able to stall out LA’s pick-and-roll offense and pet actions. I just don’t see that being the case in this series. 

In the regular season, the Lakers were able to go back to an ol’ reliable play from the ‘19-20 season when nobody really had an answer for it: the LeBron and AD pick and roll. Ever since then, teams have just switched that action and would much rather one of those two attack individually vs help instead of combining to convert a masterful possession. Now, with Davis sliding to be a full-time center, that means Jokić will match up with him and if the Lakers run that LeBron and AD pick and roll, would Denver want to switch Nikola Jokić onto LeBron James? No! At least that’s what the film says and it drew great results for the Laker offense. 

Also with Jokić being on AD, that opens up a Lakers pet action of the AD wide pin-down where he sets up in the corner and a guard sets a pin-down screen for AD to curl off of and attack while on the move. I’d imagine this would be a difficult action for Jokić to guard given that centers usually aren’t used to running around screens and that’s why it’s so effective. 

On top of the offense being unlocked a bit, the Lakers’ defense has sneakily been one the best in the league at slowing down the Joker with smart tactics from the coaching staff. While some think letting Jokić cook in the post 1v1 all game is the key to beating Denver, LA has actually found success in smartly sending help to Jokić to effectively get the ball out of his hands without him realizing the advantage quick enough and also the Nuggets players not executing quick enough either. 

The Lakers used a heavy diet of helping from the strong side then bumping the next defender over to help the helper. This causes a chain reaction within the defense and the original helper’s new man will be the one in the weakside corner after he helps on Jokić. Since some of Joker’s first reads were taken away and the Nuggets didn’t weren’t ready to be thrown a Jokić pass that didn’t really create that much of an advantage, the offense sputtered at times in those regular season matchups and it was pretty much all due to the gameplan and the execution from the players.

X-Factors

Nuggets:

• The Others

Yep. That’s right. Literally every single player not named Nikola Jokić is an x-factor for the Nuggets because simply he will need all the help he can get. If Jamal Murray can tap into that efficiency he had when in the Bubble it would go a long way. He does not have the margin of error that he had in the series against Phoenix to have ice-cold games and still come out with a win. Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have to be consistent shooters and consistent decision-makers when the ball is put in their hands. Aaron Gordon can’t be afraid to shoot the ball and has to always make himself a threat through cutting or his outside shot. How much can the bench help? How much can Bruce Brown and Christian Braun contribute offensively? They’ll need everybody to chip in in some ways that aren’t normal for them and they may be put into uncomfortable situations where they will still have to succeed if they want a trip to the Finals.

Lakers

• LeBron James
• Timely adjustments (both)

Anthony Davis has unequivocally been the best player for the Lakers in this playoff run but he will need all the help where he can get it as well and I think LeBron has a chance to make a huge imprint on this series. With his athletic advantages and as a prime pressure point for the Nuggets’ weakness, his production, and primarily his health, could swing the series one way or the other.

Michael Malone is one of the best coaches in the league and this should not be a pushover matchup (like the 2020 series). These two teams are pretty evenly matched to where if you don’t counter an adjustment or don’t execute enough of the gameplan, the other team will send you right on home. Neither team has the margin for error to mess around and drop games because of an unplanned-for coverage or the team can’t execute the proper coverage or offensive exploits.

Prediction

Lakers in 6.

Much like the series against Golden State, LA is coming into this series with an optimal gameplan that we have seen work in the regular season and should be put in place again in the upcoming series. I do expect Denver to be ready for the Lakers’ first move and they have the coaching to be able to counter as best as they can then it will be on the Lakers to make their move once again. I believe the Lakers have the tactical advantage, weakness advantage, and rotation/versatility advantage with the Nuggets at a strict 8-man rotation while the Lakers have nine or even 10 guys they can go to on a nightly basis and tweak their style of play just a bit to accommodate that player and play him into their advantage. On top of that, the last game that LeBron played was his best game of this postseason and he ended the series off shooting 39% from three after Game 1. Who’s to say that can’t carry over?

Either way, this should be an extremely entertaining series that will have many plenty of adjusting and countering and best of all we get to see another series of just some of the best in the world go at it. Jokić has grown a lot since that series in Orlando and it would be a pretty good story if he were to beat the same team that knocked him out for a spot in the Finals a while back. But unfortunately for the Joker, I think his road will stop at the same spot and we will see the first 7th seed in NBA history claim their spot in the NBA Finals.

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