So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 1 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Taken 17th overall in the 2019 draft, NAW has been the “also, this guy” in three separate trades, once on draft night and twice at the deadline. Struggling with injuries and offensive consistency, he has bounced between middling New Orleans and Utah teams before finding himself in Minnesota as part of the three-team D’Angelo Russell/Mike Conley/Russell Westbrook deal.

That Minnesota team was nothing special, still figuring out a Gobert/KAT/Ant identity while getting bounced in the first round by the eventual champion Denver Nuggets. Now they find themselves atop a bloodbath of a Western Conference to the surprise of many.

Boasting a defense that is tops in the league has kept this team thriving. There are the obvious defensive anchors (Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels) but NAW has provided another elite defensive presence to their rotation. So, how did Nickeil Alexander-Walker go from being passed around like a blunt amongst middling teams to a crucial link in the armor of a contender? Let’s take a look.

Offensive Overview

Though not the finer part of his game, Alexander-Walker has made notable improvements in both results and mindset throughout his time in Minnesota. A lot of this comes from role realignment and shot distribution.

Before this season, 66% of NAW’s two-pointers and 12% of his threes were self-created. That has fallen to 48% and 3% respectively, a sign of a player having a self-creation burden taken away. This has led to a career-best efficiency from inside the arc (53.8%) and a three-point shooting mark well above his career norm (37% to 33.9%).

Looking at his shot chart gives a better idea of what this optimized off-ball role looks like for him:

Threes and layups baby. Daryl Morey would pitch a tent just looking at this.

Minnesota’s set of playmakers is not ideal, but more than enough for NAW to get the looks he needs. They have scorers that command the attention of the defense (Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns) and strong connective playmakers (Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson) that help to keep the ball moving once advantages are created.

So how exactly does Nickeil capitalize on those advantages?

Confident Shooting

Despite being roughly league-average from distance, Alexander-Walker has a whole lot of faith in his shot. And that is a good thing when 2/3rds of your shots come there.

To be a good catch-and-shoot player, a lot more goes into it beyond “stand there and fire when ready.” It’s basketball, not trench warfare: you have to keep moving to stay productive. Alexander-Walker has taken a lot of steps (literally and figuratively) to become a more productive shooter by relocating often.

His 1.16 points per possession mark on catch-and-shoot jumpers is more than palatable for a defense-first guy. Being solid from deep also opens up a lot for NAW as a closeout attacker, which has especially benefited his midrange game.

He’s got some craft beyond a straightaway pull-up two. NAW likes getting into spinning turnaround jumpers, and they look quite good when he’s rolling.

Being able to pick and choose his PU2 spots in Minnesota as opposed to forcing them during his other stints has led to remarkable efficiency. Alexander-Walker is cashing in 55% (!!!) of his midrange looks this year, a 98th percentile mark amongst wings. Even if it only represents 1/6th of his shot diet that can be a huge swing factor come playoff time.

And it’s not the only part of his game being buoyed by his shooting.

Tough Drives, Middling Finishing

If a defender sells too hard to deny him the perimeter shot, Alexander-Walker is pretty good at putting the ball on the deck a couple of times and getting a shot at the rim.

Getting a clean angle because of the closeout and pressing that advantage is one thing. Beyond that, there are a lot of issues with his drives and finishing.

Don’t get me wrong: Alexander-Walker is capable of a solid drive and finish. I’ve seen it!

But there is a lot of rough stuff, namely concerning his handle.

Fast and loose is a fine line to walk with your dribble skill. Alexander-Walker tends to fall on the wrong side of that line. It’s a large reason why he has a 19th-percentile turnover rate amongst wings.

There’s a general trend of poor offensive coordination that shows up in his finishing skill as well. Some of it is a mindset thing – Alexander-Walker tries too hard for creative finishes. On the bright side, when he fails spectacularly, it’s rather entertaining.

Walker does make up for some of this rim-finishing concern with his cutting. He’s pretty heady about picking spots and finding space to exploit, and they usually result in much easier finishes.

Yet all of this does not add up to a good rim finisher. He’s sitting at 60% on the season – a 34th percentile mark. This more or less leaves Alexander-Walker as a 2-level scorer. More like 1.5 when you consider he’s just average from three and no longer doing self-creation from there.

Though NAW does have limitations as a scorer, he makes up for it somewhat with his playmaking skill.

Pinch Playmaking

Nickeil’s time spent as a combo guard at the beginning of his career has translated well as he moves to a wing role. As his usage has scaled down, he still finds ways to keep the rock moving constructively. NAW boasts a 77th percentile assist rate in addition to a 1.06 assist/usage ratio, a 95th percentile mark.

He’s not often the guy to begin the creation chain and force the defense into rotation, but can do it when called upon.

Alexander-Walker is especially adept at making the wrap pass to the corner when help comes to defend the pick-and-roll. It’s one of his most common reads in PNR and he executes often.

What he’s mostly good for as a playmaker is pressing the advantages created by others. With the defense in rotation, Alexander-Walker will keep that advantage pressed and make some pretty solid reads.

Similar to his driving and finishing attempts, Alexander-Walker likes to get spicy with his attempts. Sometimes it’s glorious.

But more often he gets himself in trouble by doing too much. The jump passes in particular are problematic.

So, he’s no Tyrese Haliburton. But I’d rather have the guy who tries too hard than not hard enough.

The potential growth areas offensively are pretty simple. Better finishing craft on the drive and reining in the turnovers would take him from a more or less average scoring guard to an above average one, if not a good one. As always with development, skill issues are far easier to fix than physical ones. NAW is only 25 years old and possessed with fantastic athleticism, so there is plenty of ceiling for him to reach.

And considering how good he is on the other end of the floor, being average offensively still makes him a damn good player.

Defensive Overview

A major theme in Alexander-Walker’s offensive game is chaos. When it comes to the defensive end that chaos becomes incredibly controlled and extremely impactful.

Some numbers before we dig into the film: NAW sits at a 91st percentile block percentage for wings (astounding considering he is undersized somewhat for a wing) and an 84th percentile steal rate. His D-EPM, perhaps the best catch-all star around, ranks eighth in the ENTIRE league. It’s the top mark amongst all wings (or third amongst guards, depending on how you view his position). That’s All-Defense level production, and he should be heavily considered for that honor come season’s end.

There’s one skill in particular that gets him to that level:

Elite Hands

The blocks stat probably indicates that NAW is a guy who can launch and meet a shot in the air. And, granted, he is capable of that:

A large majority of those blocks come from his strips as the shot is going up. It’s hard to differentiate which are steals and which are blocks at times, but regardless the ball is gone before the handler/shooter/roller has a chance to do anything with it.

Stripping perimeter shooters, guys posting him up, and even rotating over to get a strip on a roller or cutter. That’s unbelievable stuff. Hands like these would make Andre Iguodala proud.

It’s not just the skill of stripping shots and handles in clutch moments. Timing is everything. Alexander-Walker is particularly adept at blowing up PNR or DHO plays before they even have a chance to start.

Being a ballhandler or shooter going at NAW is akin to Anakin Skywalker on the platform on Mustafar. Obi-Walker is standing there, telling you “don’t try it”, yet they still do.

Even when he’s not cleanly erasing the play with his hands, Alexander-Walker does a great job at containment.

Perimeter Containment

With Rudy Gobert navigating the back line for Minnesota in a lot of NAW’s minutes, the job is simple: hold up as long as you can before the help arrives. Alexander-Walker excels at doing just that.

Point-of-attack defenders in today’s NBA rarely have the skill to completely shut down a drive by themselves. There is just too much talent to contain without the use of hand-checking. The job has changed: take away the easy shots and funnel your man into the help. Alexander-Walker understands the assignment and executes it to a T.

For his length and size, NAW is also quite good as a screen navigator. He knows how to get skinny and take the right angles to keep himself in the play, even if going around double drags:

Even when he takes the bigger wing assignments who want to post him up to create a size advantage, he’s damn good at containing those possessions by himself:

There are certainly weaknesses in his perimeter game. Some assignments are too quick for him to truly contain.

His physicality on drives can also get him in trouble from time to time. It’s no accident that NAW has a 34th percentile foul rate.

That’s the cost of doing business when you are a perimeter event creator and stopper. You have to toe the line of being overly physical at times. If a handler knows he’s going to take some contact when he creates an advantage against you, it makes them think twice about getting in your grill.

For an already dangerous Minnesota defense, the elite point-of-attack and stock threat coming from NAW puts them over the top as the best defense in the league.

Quality Rotations

Not only does Alexander-Walker do great work on the perimeter, he’s quite good in rotation.

We saw some of those earlier when he rotates to strip a roller or cutter. Even when he’s not creating a possession-ending play, he can do some great things.

I like his ability to dig or provide nail help from the wings. He knows his length and speed afford him time to take risks while not conceding open shots to the man he is helping off. Few players can help off Lauri Markkanen and not get burned by it:

Alexander-Walker also thrives as a low man. If his assignment is planted in the weak corner he has the timing and length to make a real difference when rotating over to the ball:

There are a lot of excellent point-of-attack defenders. Not all of them can be impact rotational defenders, which is a huge key. If the opponents know you are extremely hard to beat, they will choose to go after your teammates. If you can still impact the defense at a high level when off the ball, that’s how you solidify yourself as an elite perimeter guy.

I only have one gripe with his defense: the rebounding. NAW sits in the 1st percentile amongst wings for defensive boards. Only Gary Harris has posted a worse mark amongst wings. Gary is four years older, two inches shorter, and has three fewer inches on his wingspan. That’s not going to cut it for someone with his size and athleticism.

Granted, some of this is context. Playing alongside Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid leaves few boards up for grabs. But he needs to step up as a rebounder to maximize these lineups. The top five lineups NAW plays with are 45th percentile or worse in defensive rebounding despite having two of those bigs on the floor. He needs to do more there.

Future Outlook

Only 25 years old and coming into his own, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has a very exciting future in this league.

He’s under contract for one more year in Minnesota at an extremely affordable rate. If they can keep this kind of defensive production up as a team, NAW will hit free agency in the theoretical prime of his career as an elite defensive piece and quality spacer/second-side creator. Contenders of all kinds will want him in their rotation as perimeter defense becomes a rare commodity.

If he takes further steps offensively to round out his rim pressure and playmaking, perhaps with a further shooting leap on the cards, he could be one of the better two-way guards around. It’s safe to say Alexander-Walker’s days of being “that other guy” in trades are over. He has arrived.

The post Finding a Role: Nickeil Alexander-Walker appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

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