This summer, I want to apply those lessons to up-and-coming players, first in the NCAA. This will serve both as a useful evaluatory framework for each player; it will also be fertile testing ground to see what eye test cues work and what does not.

Below, I will provide a brief introduction to the NBA draft prospect before diving into the elements of their game. This piece will then look at which Star Traits and Improver Traits this player displays in his tape. By going through these categories with sleeper prospects, I hope to disentangle what translates to higher levels of play, and how.

Malique Ewin, Arkansas

Ewin had the unconventional path of playing for Ole Miss as a freshman before transferring down the ladder to South Plains Community College in Texas. The #1 ranked junior college player after one season there, Ewin then accepted an offer to transfer back up to Florida State. After a season putting up some of the best stats in the woeful ACC, Ewin faces a challenge in stepping up in competition by transferring to John Calipari’s Arkansas in the ultra-competitive SEC.

Ewin’s Star Traits

Perfect: Go Up and Get It

Any analysis of Ewin has to start with his most standout ability: his rebounding.

I have rarely seen a player use his body as well as Ewin, combined with stellar sense of timing, to make himself a consistently useful rebounder. Ewin is elite at finding the ball at its apex, and not just when rebounding – he times lob finishes and blocks well, too.

We will talk later about how consistently Ewin applies physicality to gain advantageous position, but it’s really his ability to grab the ball at its apex that makes him unique. Despite roaming from the basket here and there and some athletic limitations, Ewin put up a top 20 offensive rebound rate among high-major players. As you can see in the tape above, Ewin’s timing makes him a menace in traffic, able to play the five for FSU where he boosted his team’s offensive and defensive rebounding rates. He reminds me of Justin Champagnie or Johni Broome as rebounders above their height in college.

Ewin’s physical tools, including poor foot speed, limit his upside as a shotblocker, but his timing and spatial reasoning to optimize his positioning make him a help-side threat nonetheless. On the offensive end, Ewin is a fantastic lob finisher with 48 dunks on the season, good for fourth in the ACC. Ewin is able to position his body perfectly to catch alley oops even from a full sprint, finishing 77% of his transition attempts.

Go Up and Get It is a star trait due to how stable it is in holding value, and the importance of controlling the possession battle generally. Ewin can overcome some athletic limitations with this ability, sticky in its contribution due to him being able to beat players taller than himself for boards. In the right setting, his lob finishing and secondary shot-blocking could help, too.

Very Good: Pass Through Your Defender

Ewin’s second standout trait is a step below his ‘go up and get it’ ability: his ability to ‘pass through’ his opponent. This often means jump passes, a great way to get an angle on an opponent and showcase instantaneous decision-making. But more generally, the star trait is simply that: any showcase of unique angles gained on an opponent via quick-decision passing.

The first clip above is Ewin’s best in this article, not only leaping to make the pass but also sideways to do so while passing in between two different defenders, with another at his back. An extremely high difficulty pass such as this can only be completed by an extremely high-feel and coordinated player with passing talent.

Ewin lacks consistently great decision-making, likely worsened by FSU’s poorly structured offense with limited talent. But Ewin’s passing shines regardless, and likely could be ramped up even more in a context with better play finishers around him — FSU ranked 280^th in college basketball for three-point percentage and 310^th in three-point rate…yikes.

Very Good: Unstructured Midrange Touch

Perhaps a surprising trait for his archetype, Malique Ewin displayed high-difficulty touch from unusual positions throughout the season. He is a very good structured finisher, meaning with traditional technique, heavily favoring inside right hand reverses which typically go in. But we care more about his unstructured finishes, meaning those coming from unusual hand positions relative to the ball from difficult angles and/or distances. Ewin passes the eye test, swimmingly, here.

Despite not having hardly any pull-up jumpers or runners, and shooting poorly on a heavy volume of hook shots, Ewin took very difficult layups often, in traffic, from difficult angles and pushing the distance on what is considered a layup, and made an 85th percentile 64% of those. Despite not having access to Synergy data for his community college season, Ewin shot an elite 62% from the field that year.

It is not uncommon for players to have poor free-throw percentages, like Ewin in the low 60s, while hitting a good percentage of midrange attempts. On Bart Torvik, which calculates midrange attempts that may include Synergy’s lengthier layups, Ewin shot 32-83 (a decent 39%) in the midrange with only 12.5% assisted. I’m relying on the eye test here, given the high degree of difficulty of his attempts and frequency of near misses, but an overall two-point percentage of 60% is still good for 12th in the ACC.

Where He Falls Short

There are two other star traits I noted in my study, with Ewin falling short of excellent for both. Perhaps the most important star trait of all – the one that stood out the most and immediately when watching Hall of Famers – is having a “one-two punch.” A one-two punch is a quick scoring option where a player is able to create a consistent amount of space to make it highly repeatable. Think Jordan’s crossover, Kareem’s hook, Duncan’s turnaround bank shot or Shaq’s drop step.

Ewin does not have that, at least not consistently, yet. More success with his hook shot could allow him to settle into using that as a weapon, but that development is far from guaranteed. Diminishing those odds is how not only did Ewin have few post-up possessions this past season, but how Calipari has rarely used them the past two seasons. A good portion of Ewin’s drives were straight-line, though he did mix in some spin moves, with mixed success.

The other superstar trait where Ewin falls short is his hands. Now, they are not bad by any means, as Ewin has a particularly quick reaction time when people try to pass through him. But are they elite, a standout trait at the NBA level? No, and this is a characteristic that is difficult to improve upon – you either have great hands or not. Among 6’10” high major players, Ewin is in the exact middle for steal rate and slightly below average for block rate. A lot of this is not the fault of his hands but rather his limited mobility in space. His recovery tools stink, and he can get burned fairly easily by guards. But he has the vertical and size to block more shots, especially playing the five for FSU, and he simply does not.

A lack of space creation on offense and space closure on defense, worsened by mediocre hands, all but guarantees Ewin will fall short of sniffing stardom as a basketball player. But there are clear points of high competency that will translate well to any level of ball. In particular, his rebounding is likely sticky, and provides a nice floor to value. This is particularly the case given his demonstrated high feel with passing talent. There are qualities that an NBA team would be attracted to.

Ewin’s Improver Traits

Excellent: Initiates Physicality

This goes hand in hand with Ewin’s high-pointing ability to make him a vicious rebounder, but also makes him a particularly good screen setter. Ewin is strong, and feels comfortable squaring his body to an opponent to hit them full on. Ewin lacks perfection here as often a finesse finisher near the rim, but with good touch that’s okay. His 41.4 free throw rate is just mediocre for a big, but understates his physicality seen more in clearing out his opponent. This mixes well with Ewin’s high feel nature, allowing him to place his body in the most obstructing position possible.

Initiating physicality is an important ingredient to improving, considering you need both the strength and willingness to hold your spot on both ends. If you’re losing the physicality battle, that will hurt you every single possession, especially essential for bigs who will be featured rebounders and screeners. But more broadly, being physical means you have a determination about the game that lends well to getting better, generally.

Very Good: Motor

Now we see the picture forming: Ewin simply plays hard. While still prone to conserve energy – Ewin is not the quickest, and perhaps could have slightly better fitness – when he’s in the action, he commits. We see his relentless pursuit on the glass, where he snags 13.7% of offensive rebound opportunities. Ewin is still two notches below perfect in this category, but it’s good enough, especially when combined with his Go Up and Get It and Initiate Physicality traits, to turn into tangible results. We can say with a degree of confidence that Ewin will be a strong rebounder and screener at the NBA level. But we also see avenues to improvement because he simply wants to be in the muck of it.

Very Good: On-Ball Experimentation

Again, we see ceiling limitations in that these improvement scores are falling short of basketball’s greats. But Ewin likely has more juice than people think. My favorite quality of Ewin’s is his tendency to gallop down the floor with the ball, serving little functional purpose but displaying coordination and creativity with ballhandling. He’s an effective ball custodian for his size, turning it over a solid 12.5% of the time on over a drive per game (fellow 6’10” big Johni Broome turned it over 16.9% of the time, by comparison).

Ewin’s 83 midrange attempts isn’t too impressive on the surface, but the attempts were difficult and often highly creative. Ewin has a complex layup package for his size, and isn’t afraid to try difficult moves through traffic (with some brilliant moments of small-space coordination). Ewin also experiments amply as a passer, slinging live dribbles from wing to wing or kicking from the post, just generally an interesting problem-solver on the ball.

On-ball experimentation is obvious in its value for improvement: the more you simply try things, the greater capacity you have to learn what does or does not work, and the greater opportunity to iron out technique. Ewin’s role was somewhat encouraging of his experimentation, but hampered by a clogged paint. Ewin even got some pick-and-roll ball-handler reps this past season, where he showed off his handle, passing and touch for size. He’s a real conductor threat at the NCAA level, and with another season of experimentation under his belt, could develop in unexpected ways.

Very Good: Technique

Much like one’s motor, technique is fairly obviously essential for star players to have, but is often overlooked nonetheless. Steve Nash, for example, would have been an impossible future All-Star projection unless one properly valued just how rare his technical game was. For Malique Ewin, we again get above-average marks, signaling capacity for continued growth as a basketball player.

My favorite insight into Ewin’s technical prowess is his screening, again playing off of his other essential traits of initiating physicality and having a high motor. Ewin squares his shoulders at perfect angles, maximizing impact while staying within the bounds of the rulebook, setting up the ball handler for his optimal route. Ewin weighed in at 240 pounds this summer at Arkansas, ten pounds heavier than a year before, a tank for applying this physicality surgically.

This strong technique shows up in how he uses his body generally, great at properly boxing out as well as finding the right angle to post up deep in the lane. These are small areas which add up given the frequency of screening and necessity of bigs to punish mismatches in the post. Even a few extra inches of wiggle room for a ballhandler to operate is amplified when Ewin sets a screen the majority of possessions. To steal from Josh Url, that’s also advantage creation.

Ewin has strong technique as a dribble-pass-shoot threat given his size, but imperfections still exist with his poor free throw shooting and limited handle complexity. However, we have now demarcated a bevvy of traits which combine nicely. On-ball experimentation mixes with technique to again give Ewin some odds of conducting offense, even if in limited capacity. The short roll suits him well, a thunderous dunker with space who can hit middies and also find shooters (now that he has some). I would bet on him looking like one of the better offensive engines among bigs this NCAA season.

Where He Falls Short

There’s only one improver trait that falls short of a Very Good grade, and that’s small space coordination. A rarer quality even among improvers, small space coordination can vault mediocre players into great ones. This quality means the ability to dance through traffic with precision, displayed by players like Manu Ginobili, Kevin Durant or Pascal Siakam. Coordination to fit through small spaces vastly expands what is feasible and what is not, as major space creation is less necessary.

Ewin does not entirely lack this type of coordination, particularly nimble on spin moves to the basket and precise when setting screens, boxing out or posting up. But his footwork is still generally heavy, another reason why his drive rate was not higher. Lacking both a one-two punch and small space coordination severely limits Ewin’s upside as a scorer.

Ewin generally does well on the characteristics that define improvers, but falls short of perfect for any trait. A better spaced offense might allow for a higher drive rate, perhaps displaying small space coordination we did not get to witness at Florida State. But generally, Ewin is high-feel and plays to punish his opponent. It’s likely he continues to improve.

Wrapping Up

Ewin scores similarly on star traits to improver traits, competent to very good across the board. But he lacks true outlier characteristics anywhere besides his ability to high-point the ball on rebounds or lobs. Good feel and good technique will carry him further, and combine with on-ball experimentation to mean he could surprise people as a conductor, even with the competition leap from the lowly ACC.

The rebounding and screening look to be very strong, with translatability likely. It’s the scoring that will hold him back, though better midrange percentages might be on the way given his high difficulty level of attempts at FSU. He is best suited to being a short roll maestro, especially considering his complete lack of three-point shot (although, it is reported he did shoot threes pre-NCAA).

Ewin is in for a big season in the SEC, likely to be competing for All-Conference teams in a more conducive environment on a team that wins more games. With a potential leap in drive and assist rates enabling more experimentation, Ewin could look like a clear-cut NBA draft pick by mid-season.

The post Summer Sleepers: Malique Ewin appeared first on Swish Theory.

To put it simply, a flaw in the subcategories for one player can be irrelevant for another: each prospect is unique and individual, and their path to NBA success can pull from vastly different traits. If you were grading skills broadly, you could theoretically have two players listed as ‘B’ in driving, but they could both be very different types of drivers.

One skill I always find particularly intriguing is ‘Feel’. The term can sometimes be hard to define, and each person likely has different types of ‘feel plays’ they value more than others. Generally, rotations and defensive positioning are seen as the primary barometers for feel, and I don’t disagree with this. Modern basketball offenses are so diverse, full of inversion and misdirection at a pace we’ve never seen before. Merely being able to master one position or one defensive role likely isn’t enough to stick for non-centers.

I am going to be exploring feel and what I deem to be ‘valuable’ types of offensive feel through Javon Small, who I believe to be the smartest player in the draft class. Small is currently 14^th on my big board at the time of writing and someone I’d happily use a mid to late first-round pick on. He is the best off-ball player in the class and a superb passer, something I’ll analyse and chart at length later in this article.

At times, I am of the opinion that Feel can be oversimplified. Similarly to driving, feel is complex and can be quite role-dependent. I would also like to share how I scout passing and all the different facets of passing that matter to me, noting why all passing is not the same, and why versatility matters. We can sometimes see a flashy pass and get enamoured, but you want to study the body of work and post the flashy stuff if you think it matters or is part of something bigger.

AST:TO is often used as a broad indicator of offensive feel. I am of the opinion that turnovers are bad and having a wildly negative AST-TO ratio is probably a bad sign unless you are a nuclear shooter or hyper athletic lob-threat. But does having a high AST-TO automatically mean you have feel on a basketball court? Quite often, players who are incredibly high in this stat can simply be table-setters on teams running high-powered offenses full of off-screen plays. I am not suggesting these skills aren’t valuable, but more that it can be worth contextualizing the types of assists players are getting. More filtering is needed to truly grasp a players “feel”, whether that be more granular stats or film analysis.

To me, defensive feel is much easier to define than offensive feel. I think there are two main reasons for this, the first being that bad defensive positioning is just so glaringly obvious on tape to the naked eye. If the tag man falls asleep on a Spain PNR, a layup is given up. If someone crashes on a drive and doesn’t rotate back out quickly enough to defend ball reversals, a wide-open jump shot will be given up. If a player panics as his defense is rotating, he may over-commit and end up fouling a mediocre three-point shooter.

The other reason is that scheme and surrounding personnel can play a large role. Teams that run the Princeton Offense naturally create opportunities for back cuts. Iverson Loop is a favourite set play of mine that will almost always create a wide-open backdoor layup. These are ‘cuts’, but created via schematic or tactical brilliance. Also, playing with an elite passer such as Nikola Jokic or Trae Young will give you more opportunities to showcase off-ball feel than if you are on a poor roster.

The balance comes with the fact that you cannot completely ignore good cutting because it comes within the context of a good scheme. Peja Stojakovic was a terrific off-ball mover when playing in Rick Adelman’s high-powered offense alongside two elite passers in Chris Webber and Vlade Divac. The fact that the corner offense was so meta for its time doesn’t change the fact; it’s just worth keeping in mind when studying this stuff. A good cut also doesn’t get you an assist or at times even the ball thrown your way, sometimes it will create space for someone else such as with a 45 cut.

This piece serves as more of a philosophical dive than a true draft profile, but for the sake of being complete I will say that Small is a plus playmaker, a very good off-ball mover who should shoot well at the next level. His three-point percentage is slightly lower than I’d expect it to be in the NBA, largely because, as a first-option, over half of his attempts were off-the-dribble three-pointers. The likely biggest weakness on offense is that he doesn’t like to challenge rim protectors. He has a decent floater in his arsenal but will often prefer to pass out of those situations.

Literature on Feel

Feel, being as complex as it is, requires study beyond the tape. Part of growing as an analyst in Basketball is reading pieces that challenge you, but also help you learn. As a guy who never played the sport, my background is unique and self-created. Other guys have different paths and skillsets. One of the best pieces ever written on feel is by my good friend Evan Zaucha, who now works at a high level in the sport.

Evan is a neuroscientist who pondered whether feel can be improved upon, and turned this late-night pondering into one of the greatest articles ever written on basketball.

This article is well worth your time and changed the way I look at the game of basketball. Evan makes several conclusions in the article, but there are two tha I’m really going to focus on:

• Ev concludes Feel is one of the 2 hardest skills to develop, alongside dribbling, with a general conclusion that mental skills are harder to develop than technical skills.
• Ev breaks down ‘feel’ into three parts: Processing Speed, Pattern Recognition and Visual Processing.

I’m not going to regurgitate a watered-down version of Zaucha’s masterpiece, but for the sake of moving things along in my own piece let’s just quickly explore these three through a play from my timeline where Louisville runs ‘Horns Out Knicks Spain’.

The pattern recognition aspect is Chucky Hepburn identifying the play, snaking to the right after the screen flip and seeing the defense angle their bodies to his left. He’s been running PNRs all his life and Kelsey would have installed this particular play in practice. In addition to this, he also sees his back screener angle his screen to the right-hand side.

Things are not always so simple, though, and players often have to react to what the defense does, not what they think they’re going to do.

The visual processing in this instance is seeing that #11 from Notre Dame has jumped into the paint to defend him as opposed to sticking with the back screener (a possible surprise). He continues processing by throwing it to the back screener, who leaked out of the paint for three. The processing speed is a constant throughout the play because if Hepburn picks up his dribble or stops after seeing the guard in the paint, Notre Dame would be able to recover out to the ‘leaker’ in the Spain PNR. Windows can shut it in an instant in basketball, so being able to do these things consistently is a true barometer of high-end ‘feel’.

These descriptions are similar to how the great NFL analysts will discuss quarterback play. You have a route combination to beat a specific coverage; if they’re vanilla, you know what you’ve got and don’t have to hesitate. If the coverage is disguised, you have to adjust on the fly, whether that’s taking a checkdown or something else. The speed you do that and how quickly you can move your feet (in the case of Hepburn above, it was his handle) will impact how likely you can adjust on the fly.

Another article that changed the way I scouted was Jake Rosen’s piece on how to look for processing speed on a court, in which the majority of ways Jake identified processing speed were off the ball. This largely tracks, as cutting is the most commonly identified type of intelligent ‘feel’ play. The one on-ball skill that Jake noted can be used to spot processing speed is when a playmaker is going through their progressions. You might run a double drag and your defender gets caught under the screen, so you know you have a clear run to the rim. But there will be other occasions where things are not that simple and you have to go further into your script, if not play in a way that wasn’t on your original script.

To Quote Rosen:

“The easiest way to detect fraudulent processors is when the first read is forced. Whether it’s a drop off to the roll man, or a lob for a scripted ATO play, blindly following the first read is a huge red flag. Not only does it show they didn’t read the defense on that particular play, it also means they were too overwhelmed with the idea of going through progressions”

There is nothing wrong with hitting a first read if it’s there. The issue is, defenses are getting longer and longer, and defensive tactics are becoming more aggressive. The picture you have in your head when you start the pick-and-roll will sometimes be completely different to what you see a couple of seconds later. NBA analyst Polarfall always likes to differentiate the very best playmakers from people who make ‘pre-planned’ decisions. You may go into a Double Drag wanting to get an easy layup, but you need to be able to read if you aren’t going to get that and have already made the decision to hit the popping big man before the defense has time to adjust.

That is the main change I have noticed as I’ve covered this game tactically for the last decade. Things can get complex quickly, and, more and more often, players are more comfortable temporarily leaving players open to overload certain areas of the court. Teams will try and counter this with stuff like 45 cuts, Stampede Action and Dead Corner concepts, but great passing is a way to cut through all of this, as if you’re against a truly elite processor, there isn’t always a ton you can do.

Passing Versatility

I’ve outlined some of the pieces that impacted the way I watch film and process playmaking on the court – now lets look through this lens with Javon Small. Small is a player projected in the mid-second round, but I’d feel comfortable taking him quite a bit earlier. I believe he can be a rotation player on a very good team due to his mix of playmaking, off-ball interest, feel, shooting, and capable paint scoring.

Something I always take note of is the variety of assists a player gets. I think even the top-end playmakers, such as Nikola Jokic, Steve Nash, and Luka Doncic, have passes or deliveries they lean on disproportionately. Even still, these 3 guys stand out as being capable of making a variety of passes, adapting to the playfinishing personnel they have on the court with them. To further explain this theory, I hand-tracked all of Javon Small’s assists from the past season. If an assist contributed to two categories in a relevant way (IE, if Small came off a screen, then drove and kicked it), I added a number to both categories.

As you can see, there is a lot of variety here. I believe this is important because at the NBA levels, some passers have very specific tendencies, and these can be game planned for. For example, the old Brooklyn Nets teams had D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie as their lead guards. Russell had a very strong preference towards interior passing, whereas Spencer Dinwiddie had a heavy bias towards drive-and-kick passing. Being able to hit the whole floor in the half-court is extremely important, even though Russell was still a plus playmaker in the grand scheme of things.

It is also worth noting that passing variety on its own isn’t a reliable indicator of feel. You could theoretically be able to make every pass in the book and make it accurately, but still be a low feel or poor processing player. Instead, I feel the ability to make different types of passes elevates the value of feel, which is why I talked about contextualizing AST:TO Ratio earlier. Small’s AST:TO Ratio moves me because of the difficulty and variety of the passes he executes in a high-level on-ball role.

Something I feel is essential when scouting a prospect is to consider the surrounding context. This does not mean I would completely overlook a prospects’ flaws because they’re in a bad context, but, rather, you weigh it in as part of the evaluation. With regard to passing variety what you should contextualise is that sometimes your front-court options will dictate the types of passes you throw.

For example, when scouting Kasparas Jakucionis it is painfully obvious that Illinois did not have a consistent lob-threat due to the fact that their center, Ivisic, was more of a stretch-five. This does not necessarily mean Kasparas cannot throw lob passes or prefers not to, but it’s a variable to consider. In the case of Small, West Virginia’s bigs largely preferred passes to be thrown as they were rolling; they didn’t have much of a true vertical threat. Still, having watched Small, I don’t believe he had an aversion to throwing lob passes, but instead was adapting to his personnel – those he did throw were accurate and the right read.

Effectively, passing variety shows you can solve problems in a variety of ways, which can increase a playmaking ceiling down the line. You can still be a positive playmaker without it, but the more passes you’re capable of, the more ways you can solve problems in the half-court.

Javon Small

As I’ve mentioned, I believe Small to be an incredibly smart player who can do anything on the floor. West Virginia were a good team last year, and Small played a large part in that stepping up to the plate after Tucker DeVries’ season-ending injury early in the season. Darian DeVries is one of the best offensive minds in college basketball, and Small’s passing was a great mesh with this, opening a whole realm of possibilities.

Something I’d like to note is I always try and make sure I’m being realistic and balanced. At times it can be tempting to find a clip of a prospect doing something once or twice and labelling it as a ‘flash’. It’s something I try and fight doing because you could find a clip of Dwight Howard hitting a three or Andre Roberson hitting a movement three if you looked hard enough. I have chosen to highlight Javon Small’s passing because after a full scout I believe it to be a difference making skill that can help a team, not because I’m trying to force anything.

What you will notice with a lot of these plays, is just how active Javon Small is off-the-ball. He takes great pride in moving to create advantages for his team-mate and it means there is passing potential off the catch due to his movement to take movement threes.

Below is the quintessential Javon Small play.

West Virginia runs ‘Point Over’. He cuts backdoor, loops back around, gets top locked. Many players just stop here or continue to try and get open in the same way, but Small keeps it moving and clears out eventually receiving the ball on a handoff, then making a quick dumpoff pass to Amani Hansberry who largely prefers to receive the ball in face-up situations. This is a great example of how he never stop moving and makes passes quickly.

Making passes in one motion after receiving the ball is a very common play-type for Small. Below he comes off the screen in a ‘Garfunkel’ set and makes the dumpoff pass to Hansberry at the baseline quickly enough so Hansberry can score without resistance.

After Tucker DeVries went down. Small became the fulcrum of the half-court offense – other guys stepped up where needed, but he was the advantage creator. They also sought to weaponize him off-ball largely due to his willingness to do it, but also to avoid predictability and stagnation.

Part of how they’d do this was by using Floppy Action and other double staggers.

On the play above, Javon Small makes the bounce pass to Amani Hansberry after coming off the double stagger. Hansberry likes these bounce passes as they’re a good way for him to quickly get into floaters and quick jumpers.

The play below is a good example of his good visual processing.

Small comes off the screen and is getting blitzed. More often than not Small expects to dump the ball off inside the paint, but on this occasion, his screener is a 6-foot guard. Small sees him moving to the corner so he stops and throws a pass over his head with the left hand, choosing a whipped pass to give a closeout the least chance of happening.

A concept that Polar introduced to NBA Twitter was the concept of ‘proactive passing’. The idea behind this is that you at first react to what is happening, but then throw a pass in anticipation of the defenses next move. I refer to any pass where it’s thrown as the defense is rotating (as opposed to afterwards) as a proactive pass. Small makes a lot of these:

Here they run their ‘turn’ series for him. The main option is for him to drive to the rim himself as the roll didn’t really get open. But watch how he reads #23 – the defender is in a position to clog the lane, but Small sees his back turned to Toby Okani so he throws the pass in anticipation. Effectively, he throws him open on this play )to use American Football terminology). He also correctly chooses the bounce pass as it’s Okani’s preference and allows him to pick up and finish off the glass in one motion.

Holding Defenders

Small does a great job holding defenders in a variety of ways. Sometimes it’s with his eyes, sometimes he extends windows for his roll men to give them more space and further stretch the defense.

I’m normally quite a harsh analyst on passing because I think at times basic passes can become highlight plays because of some finesse or trickery on them. But Small made so many proactive passes this season into tight windows and did a great job at both understanding and predicting defenders, like this play against Kansas:

WVU open the game by running a Shallow Double Drag which is designed to clear nail help and create a 2v2 in the PNR game. Kansas decide to hedge on the screen. Small’s roll-man is briefly covered by #3 but he waits for the mesh point and throws a beautiful wraparound pass to Eduardo Andre as Hunter Dickinson is rotating back. He stayed patient and made the pass right as he predicted that #3 would want to recover out to the shooter.

Dickinson is technically still right in front of him when he decides to make the pass. Proactive Passing doesn’t mean the pass has to be instant – windows are always opening and closing on a basketball court – it’s just all about having a feel for timing.

Small’s bounce passing was consistently accurate, managing to maintain the leverage of his roll-men quite often.

Again, you see his ability to make proactive quick passes as defenders are getting into position. He has a great feel for finding the timing on his passes, as the ball is quite often past defenders before they’ve even reacted. His processing speed and pass selection are both top notch. From a fit perspective, it’s easy to envision him thriving alongside someone with short roll ability or a powerful driver from the mid-range area.

Here’s a play where all of this comes together and we see his ability to hold defenders still.

WVA runs a Drag PNR into a give and go designed to punish the drop defense. The shallow lift in the roll and replace action isn’t open, but Small stays patient by pulling a favorable switch further away from the action. Watch him fake the swing pass to the right to pull the recovery defender out of the paint, then hit Eduardo Andre inside. You can even see him get #14 to jump – it’s these subtle manipulations that can win in the half-court. He kept the swing pass open for the whole possession and kept leveraging the threat of it to eventually generate an interior read.

As Rosen discussed, staring down the first read all the time isn’t a good sign, as it showcases rigidity in decision making. Current NBA Basketball isn’t akin to following an instruction manual. Superhuman athletes roam the court and coaches are trying wackier defensive tactics than ever before. Gone are the days of teams running flat 1-4 PNRs with both corners and the slot occupied with spacers. The court is more positionally fluid than ever, so being able to read on the fly is as important as it’s ever been.

Effectively, you’re going to see weird stuff so you can’t rely on making pre-planned reads. These plays often stand out as containing unique angles, misdirects, or anything that elicits surprise in the viewer. In essence, a prospect being able to break your camera is a good sign.

Below is one of my favourite passes of the cycle.

This looks a simple read in the PNR, but Small actually makes two moves here: before the bounce pass, he gets the defender to jump at the idea of the high pass. He chains it together so quickly that it’s quite hard to see on the video without really slowing it down. He extends the window for his roller because if he’d thrown it earlier, #10 has a better chance at making a play.

Small also loves throwing wraparound passes. You’ve seen one or two so far, and it’s something he’s good at and feels comfortable doing. He’s ambidextrous on these passes, though ultimately he is probably slightly more comfortable using his left hand.

Modern Concepts and Athleticism

Something I love about Javon Small is how he’s already executing some of the modern concepts and tactics that we are seeing rise in the NBA, particularly in regards to throw-and-gos. These are not new to basketball, but teams such as the Cleveland Cavaliers have made them a feature of their half-court offense in recent years. Kenny Atkinson in particular preaches fast-paced principles and pass-and-move concepts, as opposed to set plays. Below is an example.

The play basically dies, which happens often against Kelvin Sampson’s defense. But Javon Small simply flows into a give and go with Amani Hansberry to get things moving again. It’s effective because Hansberry’s man is sagging off, as he’s not a great shooter. Small gets into the teeth of the defense before jumping and hangs in the air so he can allow things to develop more and make the right read.

There are a few things I note here. Caitlin Cooper has long been a proponent of jump passing and nearly every fellow Film writer I know including myself owns a T-Shirt to celebrate this. Caitlin noted that jump passing is important for Haliburton because he “jumps because he has an idea, not because he has run out of ideas”. I noticed on film while watching Javon Small that he likes a Jump Pass. In the case above the Jump Pass gave him a little time to read the low-man and pick between the 45 cutter or the corner shooter. He does similar on the play below, where he uses a jump to create time to read the low-man, then decides a kick-out is a better option than dishing into the paint.

Some may have preferred him to make the interior pass, but he underestimated the length Colorado threw at him early in the play and adjusted on the fly. Small uses the jump pass to open up two-options for himself, before ultimately deciding to read #6 inside the paint. As noted before, he chains this together rapidly and is capable of making quick adjustments with his handle. He turned what was a misread into something valuable, like he does again here:

WVU runs a Gut Chicago set on the BLOB play. There isn’t much open at first, so Small lofts a pass to his center and runs a give-and-go, creating a lob opportunity and an easy bucket. As noted in the pass tracking, Small didn’t throw a ton of lob passes – largely because the opportunities were not always there – but he is someone I project to be capable of throwing them.

I mentioned the Cavs above. Their backup guards (Ty Jerome in particular) were excellent at always keeping things moving and making quick decisions. Some call this ‘0.5 decision making’. It’s very easy to project Small doing this stuff at the NBA level, largely because he has already done it at the collegiate level. I’ve pondered whether I’ve been too optimistic on how easy these instant decision concepts are to install. Sure, you can tell any of your players to do these throw-and-gos, but the ability to do it at game speed and move quickly is the differentiator. Because of this, feel is crucial to how much value you generate from these concepts, especially on the cutting side.

Javon Small also shows great core strength on many of his passes. It should be noted that Javon Small is very athletic, full stop. Among point guards all time his combine score ranks in the 96th percentile per Nick Kalinowski (KaliDrafts).

Small shows this hand width and core strength on tape by making some crazy one-handed passes:

Javon snakes the PNR, stops and throws a great one-handed pass to Toby Okani before the defense can even react. This showcased nearly everything we’ve touched upon so far – pattern recognition by reading his defender and snaking, adapting to the changes in coverage and seeing the soft spot in the defense while doing it quickly (Zaucha). He doesn’t stare down the obvious read which is the roll, instead realizing a later progression is going to be open (Rosen). Finally, he makes a jump pass because he had an idea he wanted to execute. The one-handed pass shows core strength. This is everything I’ve discussed all coming together at once, and these weren’t one-off passes either. His handle and processing speed are on full display again in the clip below:

Cutting

Small is an exceptional cutter, able to make them quickly but also uses a lot of veteran tricks to maximize himself. Here’s a play that exemplifies this while also touching upon the jump passing we detailed above.

WVU go with a basic 5-out look and show as if they’re gonna run ‘Doom’ action (Double Zoom). Javon Small is on the weak side and briefly pushes off on his man to get a little separation, then cuts backdoor. He hangs in the air and throws a great dump-off pass. Again, he uses the Jump Pass as he had an idea as opposed to running out of them. These veteran tricks are all over the film and mesh with his passing and court mapping.

He did the same in an early-season matchup against Gonzaga:

Darian DeVries spammed this ‘Peja’ action (Back Screen into a Handoff) for his son Tucker while at Drake. WVU look to set this up on the SLOB play. Watch Small push his man (who is expecting Peja action) downhill to create a blockade then cut backdoor to generate the free-throw attempts. Small’s defender is basically only thinking about top-locking Tucker DeVries and Javon makes him pay with some smart and effective movement.

Yes it’s a defensive lapse, but good cutting will create these. You won’t create a defensive lapse out of thin air.

Small also had a couple of plays where he saw things instantly on SLOB plays as the inbounder and created points.

WVU are trying to set up some form of an away screen for Sencire Harris. He gets top locked and Small responds almost instanteously by throwing to Eduardo Andre and going for a backdoor cut which works as #3 is playing conservative defense on Andre. Again, these things look simple, but Small thinks so quickly and was doing this sort of stuff on a nightly basis.

Conclusion: Revisiting Feel, Passing and Processing Speed

I’ve explored the thoughts of others throughout this piece and deep-dived the passing variety and effectiveness of Javon Small.

Small’s offensive feel was just seriously impressive. Not many small guards engage off-ball, but Small not only engages but simply sees things so quickly. A lot of how much this might matter will depend on the shot. I believe Small’s percentages are largely tanked by the fact over 65 percent of his attempts were off-the-dribble 3s. It’s unlikely he’s going to be playing as big a role as he played at WVU so I expect the shooting numbers to stabilise a little.

The major question I have for Small is how much he can challenge bigs as a scorer. There were times he could drive and somewhat get swallowed up and almost be reliant on a cut to make stuff happen. This isn’t necessarily a gigantic deal because players should be moving anyway but working out how he wants to challenge bigs will be the major question I’d ask. But the processing, passing variety and general feel should translate immediately.

He seems pretty scalable because of his passing variety. The only real instance I can think of where he might not fit would be on a team that runs very little pick-and-roll, but even then I think his cutting, off-ball movement and smarts mean he will find opportunities to score and create from the second-side quite often.

Javon Small, with all his passing talent, indeed had a strong A:TO. However, I noted earlier that I like to contextualise Feel and analyze AST:TO in a more comprehensive way. A:TO has its value and is probably a good filter generally. But ultimately it’s worth your time to dive deeper and find other ways to filter guys out, whether that is with more statistics or with film watching. I hope sharing how I scout passing , feel and playmaking can help with that.

The reason I like to do that is to put it simply, it’s very hard to make it in the NBA. Having feel alone will not keep you on a court. The types of ways you can ‘feel’ the game matter as does the rest of your game. Zaucha’s three cornerstones of feel showcase that it can be complex to understand how feel works and how impactful it will be. Small understands the game, can adapt to defensive wrinkles and can adapt to them quickly. This is all fuelled by an impressive handle; feel cannot stand alone without technique.

Diving into the film allows you to gauge how much the feel might matter at the next level. Many high AST-TO guards get drafted, it just isn’t always enough. That is what I mean by ‘contextualising feel’. I sought to add to this by showcasing how I scout passing and the types of ‘high processing speed’ passes I look for and how to spot them.

In the modern NBA, spacing is said to be at an all-time high. This is largely because we shoot more threes than ever and have true five-out stuff. The 2002 Sacramento Kings broke the NBA with their spacing which was Chris Webber and Vlade Divac both being able to shoot mid-rangers. But the more i watch the less I become sure that space is actually always there. Part of this is because NBA defenses want you to shoot mid-range shots, but defenses are also just long and smart. What has stood out to me in these Finals is how compacted things are; things are played in a phone booth when it comes down to it. Even though we utilise the three-point line more than ever, traffic is there. Things are clogged, and you need to find solutions within the space you are given. It’s why I often fade hyper-athletic, speedy prospects because I think agility and finesse can be extremely important in these phone booths.

It’s not as simplistic as saying processing is the only way to beat it. There are sub-optimal processors who can attack these compact defenses we see and do a good job of it. In the case of Javon Small, and just Javon Small, I think his answer to this problem is that his handle, his instant processing and his ability to throw a variety of passes can unlock doors. That’s the problem he might solve for you. I try and treat every prospect as unique, and the solutions they provide for one team will not necessarily be the same they can provide for another. As I have displayed by contextualizing the stats with tape and scheme analysis, Javon Small can provide a lot of solutions for a lot of teams.

Favourite Fits: Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves, Hawks

The post Javon Small: Scouting and Contextualising Feel, Passing and Processing Speed appeared first on Swish Theory.

The draft is one of three paths to building a team, and arguably the most important for teams in smaller markets deemed less attractive to free agents and disgruntled stars who may demand trades, but only if they hand-pick their next team. This is due to the team-controlled 7-years and the value of finding impact players on rookie deals during this upcoming salary crunch around the league.

My Scouting Process is simple: Film, Data, Communication.

Watch as much tape as you can on as many prospects as you can, go to as many games in person that you can, evaluate as much relevant data on these prospects’ basketball player development journey from youth to pro as you can, look for the winning traits that translate to winning basketball at every level, like defensive instincts for forcing turnovers, quick processing decision-making feel on and off the ball, offensive rebounding, dribble, pass, shoot feel for the game, developable ball skills relative to height/position like shooting, handle, passing, and the scoring versatility, creator upside, compared to play-finishing skill-set each player possesses, which helps outline all the potential roles that player could fill.

Some skills like handle, 3pt shooting versatility, defensive versatility can help players reach higher impact than expected, as they each create advantages that make it easier to do other things; the handle creates opportunities to score and pass, the 3pt shot drags defenses out of the paint with gravity, and the defensive malleability allows one to understand and execute different defensive schemes in different roles guarding different positions, sometimes all in one possession.

Quick effective team-first decision-making may be the most important skill of all separating players at this level of athletic greatness; the mind may be the most powerful muscle separating the average rotation player and the winning players.

General big boards help build a consensus view of how this class is built via a list of the best players available. Every team, however, has their own big board filled out differently. While this consensus list is helpful to target value at different slots in the draft, a more useful tool could be filling out a big board based on a specific team, where team-centric needs, roles, situations are addressed more directly.

From there, learning from other scouts, hearing their points of view on their findings, understanding others’ perspectives through their lens, helps any evaluator cover up blind spots and round out the scouting perspective, to help see the glass half full on prospects who you may have undervalued at first.

The 2025 NBA Swish Theory Draft Guide is a helpful place to start for understanding how great draft minds view this class via ranking the Top-59 on a general big board, with filters available to target the talent and player archetypes your team needs most.

As far as my Draft Process, here are my goals for ranking any big board:

First, I’m looking for potential Superstars, guys who can be legitimate franchise cornerstones for a decade anchoring the team to 50 wins without any help.

Second, I’m targeting Offensive Engines and Defensive Cornerstones; offensive players whose mere existence creates a reliable option to run team offense as a scorer and distributor on a night-to-night basis and defensive players with outlier DPOY potential. Scoring creators who consistently create good offense for their team through reliable decision making and star-stopping defenders who are so elite, smart, versatile that they actually slow down opposing stars.

Third, I’m hunting for All-Star/All-Defense level talent, scorers and stoppers who project to potentially become Top-30 offensive players or Top-10 defensive players in the league one day, who will likely be High End Starters on championship teams.

Fourth, I’m searching for High End Starters, players who have a realistic path to impact the game at a higher rate than the average rotation player, who have likely floors as fringe 5th starters, 6th man, role players on winning teams. These are likely “good basketball” players who can bring two-way (scoring and defensive) versatility.

Fifth, I’m interested in finding Role Players whose floor is fighting for rotation spots, those who have elite skills in one role on both ends like rim-rolling and rim-protecting, or those who can hold their own on both ends of the floor with dribble-pass-shoot and switchable defensive skills, like defensive connectors who can hit the open three and make the smart pass.

Lastly, I’m looking into Potential Pros, players who have NBA length, athleticism, body strength, or outlier skill advantages like quick first step burst, playmaking vision, decision making feel, 3pt shooting, to take a swing late on unique talents.

Orlando needed shooting.

Arguably, the team needed pull-up 3pt shooting most, someone who can draw two out to the perimeter to create space for others, and ideally also possesses reliable point guard duties; either from a guard, a wing, a center, someone who can run the show when Paolo and Franz aren’t taking the lead. Someone who can set those two big wing stars and depth of play-finishers up for off-ball opportunities, cuts, rim-rolls, closeout-attacks, instead of asking them to create from scratch every time down.

Enter Desmond Bane.

Orlando addressed its biggest need (pull-up shooting), its secondary needs (C&S shooting, connective playmaking, halfcourt initiating), AND didn’t have to sacrifice the team identity (defense) to do it. The Magic somehow landed the ultimate complementary third star to its young core without taking a step back in the short term to do so.

So, what else does this Magic roster need to continually search for perfect floor balance lineups and variety of depth options?

As Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner battle it out in the NBA Finals, another apparent team need could be a reliable two-way starting center, ideally a unicorn 3&D tough shot making big man, who don’t exactly grow on trees.

Take Porzingis as an example, sliding right in next to Boston’s big wing stars, cleanly transitioning from an All-Star post-up extraordinaire with the Wizards to a glorified 3&D role with postup mismatch opportunities on a much more crowded Boston team.

Launching an offensive attack with that level of overqualified talent in a role where less is needed allows the player to maximize their winning impact; maintain energy for both ends of the floor; prepare, know, and thrive in their predetermined role.

Otherwise, endlessly hunting defensive connectors seems to be this Magic team’s priority, searching for two-way versatility, quick processing team-first decision makers, players with few holes who can dribble-pass-shoot and switch on defense.

Now that Orlando has addressed its primary shooting/scorer/playmaking concern, the question remains: what finishing touches does this roster need to start contending?

PG: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Cory Joseph
SG: Desmond Bane, Gary Harris, Jett Howard
SF: Franz Wagner, Tristan Da Silva, Caleb Houstan
PF: Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac
C: Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, Mo Wagner

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Offensive Scoring Creator vs Play-Finishers/Connectors


When reviewing the Cerebro Sports data on 2025 NBA Draft Prospects (only including NCAA), an interesting result pops up when playing around with the numbers.

If I wanted to find two-way versatility, I could look for players who can fill roles as a defensive playmaker/offensive connector/3pt shooter/playfinisher, aka someone who brings plus defense, makes team-first passes, hits open 3pt shots, rebounds, scores 2s effeciently, and helps force turnovers with steals and blocks without fouling, then I can use that idea to filter through Cerebro’s data.

Setting 4 filters to average or above (At the Rim, Defensive Impact, 3pt Effectiveness, Floor General Skills), we can find players who rate average or better compared to the draft class in these categories.

The Results? only 4 players are average or better at defense, 3pt shooting, passing, and the rest of those attributes baked into Cerebro’s formulas
:
Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Danny Wolf, and Max Shulga

These next two data viz show the Best Offensive Engine Scoring Creator 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data:

Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP), Floor General Skills (FGS), and 3PT Effectiveness (3PE)

2025 NBA Draft – Cerebro Scoring Creators Scatter

and the same data by position:
better passing = bigger square // better scoring = darker color

Top Prospects in Floor General Skills (FGS):

1) Ryan Nembhard 96
2) Kam Jones 82
3) Javon Small 79
4_ Egor Demin 78
5) Mark Sears 76
T-6) Kobe Sanders / Kasparas Jakucionis 74
8) Walter Clayton Jr. 73
T-9) Nique Clifford / Cooper Flagg / Max Shulga 72
T-12) Jeremiah Fears / Dylan Harper 71
14) Danny Wolf 69
T-15) VJ Edgecombe / Johni Broome / Sion James 67


Top Prospects in Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 93
2) Eric Dixon 88
3) Vladislav Goldin 84
4) Nique Clifford 83
T-5) Maxime Raynaud / John Tonje / Dylan Harper 82
T-8) Collin Murray-Boyles / Kam Jones 81
T-10) Cooper Flagg / Johni Broome 80
12) Tre Johnson 79
T-13) Walter Clayton Jr. / Chaz Lanier 78
T-15) Asa Newell / Rasheer Fleming / Adou Thiero / Javon Small 76


Top Prospects in 3PT Effectiveness (3PE):

1) Chaz Lanier 93
T-2) Eric Dixon / Koby Brea 90
3) Walter Clayton Jr. 88
4) Tre Johnson 87
T-5) Javon Small / John Tonje / Kon Knueppel / Tyrese Proctor 83
T-9 Mark Sears /Max Shulga 81
11) Alijah Martin 80
T-12) Rasheer Fleming / Will Richard 79
14) Maxime Raynaud 77

Prospects who ranked best in both passing and scoring:

Kam Jones, Nique Clifford, Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, Walter Clayton Jr., Javon Small, Mark Sears, Johni Broome, Tre Johnson, Collin Murray-Boyles, Kasparas Jakucionis, Max Shulga, Kon Knueppel, Danny Wolf, Jeremiah Fears, VJ Edgecombe, Alijah Martin, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins

Prospects who ranked best in all three of passing, scoring, and shooting:

Alijah Martin, Cooper Flagg, Danny Wolf, Dylan Harper, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins, Javon Small, Jeremiah Fears, Johni Broome, Kam Jones, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kobe Sanders, Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Mark Sears, Max Shulga, Tre Johnson, Tyrese Proctor, VJ Edgecombe, Walter Clayton Jr., Will Riley

Poetic to see former Creighton teammates bookending these scoring creator stats with Ryan Nembhard leading all prospects in Floor General Skills by a mile and Ryan Kalkbrenner dominating yet another category, this time in Pure Scoring Prowess.

Players who rank highly in Scoring but not shooting or passing could be promising play-finishers, like Kalkbrenner, Eric Dixon, Vlad Goldin

Players who rank highly in 3pt shooting and Passing could be good offensive connectors, if not better, such as those who rate 65 or higher in both FGS and 3PE:
Walter Clayton Jr., VJ Edgecombe, Sion James, Ryan Nembhard, Max Shulga, Mark Sears, Kobe Sanders, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Dylan Harper, Danny Wolfl, Cooper Flagg

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Defense/Hustle/At The Rim

Some promising Defense/Hustle/Rim Stats are deflections, blocks, steals, rebounds, charges, loose ball recoveries, shot contests, and fouls.

These next two data viz show the Best Defensive 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data utliziing stats like these for At The Rim (ATR), Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI), and Overall Impact (C-RAM).

This first visualization shows a player’s overall impact by circle size, defensive impact vertically focusing on steals, blocks, fouls, rebounds, and at the rim impact horizontally which accounts for rebounding, blocks, and 2P%.

bigger circle = better Overall Impact (C-Ram)

the same data by position:
better Defensive Statistical Impact = bigger square // better At The Rim = darker color

Top Prospects in At The Rim (ATR):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 87
2) Johni Broome 85
T-3) Khaman Maluach / Maxime Raynaud 82
T-5) Danny Wolf / Rasheer Fleming 80
T-7 Collin Murray-Boyles / Thomas Sorber 79
T-9 Amari Williams / Derik Queen / Nique Clifford / Vladislav Goldin 78
T-13 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 77

Top Prospects in Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 101
2) Johni Broome 97
3) Thomas Sorber 95
4) Chris Manon 94
5) Rasheer Fleming 91
T-6) Cooper Flagg / VJ Edgecombe 90
T-8 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 88
T-10) Collin Murray-Boyles / Adou Thiero / Max Shulga 87
14) Alijah Martin 86
T- 15) Will Richard / Maxime Raynaud 85

With some overlap in these two defensive statistics, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Johni Broome rank 1 and 2 respectively in both. Multiple first round prospects rank highly in both, including Thomas Sorber, Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, VJ Edgecombe, Collin Murray Boyles, and Rasheer Fleming.

Chris Manon, VJ Edgecombe, Max Shulga, Alijah Martin, Will Richard rank Top-5 in DSI among guards. Nique Clifford ranks 78 in At The Rim activity while every other guard ranks 70 or below.

The NBA Combine provides measurables on most prospects like height, wingspan, weight that can be used to compare size, reach, and effective length.

I created a Data Viz of the 2025 NBA Draft Prospects by their Wingspan/Height Plus Minus compared with their Stocks Per Foul rate, where Stocks = STL + BLK

Top-5 Wingspan/Height Plus Minus

+9 Cedric Coward / Rasheer Fleming
+8.75 Thomas Sorber
+7 Amari Williams
+6.75 Drake Powell

Top-5 Stocks Per Foul

2.29 Ryan Kalkbrenner
1.58 Thomas Sorber
1.46 Cooper Flagg
1.45 Johni Broome
1.29 Alex Toohey

*Note, Cerebro Sports, CBB Analytics, and NBA Combine Data only consists of NCAA Players. International players data is from Basketball Reference.

With the 25th pick in the first round and the 46th and 57th picks in the second round of the 2025 NBA Draft, prospects and picks galore in the war chest, and young talent on good contracts filling up the roster, the Magic’s options this off-season feel endless. That doesn’t always end up translating to something big happening, but Orlando’s process keeps them prepared and flexible today and through the future to continually have the option to do something, which is the important part of making big splash trades – to stay ready for opportunities when value can be found.

In the past, Orlando has sold its second round picks for Cash Considerations; unless one or both are dealt in trades, don’t be surprised if that happens again, especially given how little opportunity there is for young prospects on this win-now roster.

One guess would be Orlando sells off one or both of the second round picks for cash. Another option could be packaging the 25th with the 2nd rounders to trade out of the draft for futrue assets or move up in the draft if there’s one particular prospect target in mind and they feel good about landing him at a slightly higher slot.

The Top-60 Prospects ranked below in tier are viewed as the same level as all prospects within the same tier, but factors like team/situation/role come into play as the tie-breaker. These players are ranked as such for this Magic team based on need, fit, opportunity, investment, and mostly just trying to answer questions like…

Which prospect has the most potential and the best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

Which prospect can help this team win now and in the future *and* fit within the current roster construction over the long haul the best?

The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board

Tier 1a – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: All-Star/All-Defense

1. Cooper Flagg
   The Runaway #1 Pick for a reason, Flagg is the most versatile basketball prospect this game has seen since LeBron.
   
   Any team can ask Cooper to do just about anything, and Flagg will either be good, great, or elite at it, able to slide into a multitude of different roles on both ends. An all-time great defensive prospect with Montverde at the high school level went on to produce an all-time great offensive season in his one and only year with Duke at the collegiate level.
   
   The Magic would obviously love to add a star like Flagg, who projects to play like a Supercharged Franz, and maybe even the one true Swish Army Knife of them all.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 1b – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: Offensive Engine/All-Star
   
2. Dylan Harper
   
   Harper would be taken more seriously in #1 pick talks in just about any other draft class. Dylan looks like a primary scoring creator, a true offensive engine for a team with the dynamic athleticism to give one hopes of positive defensive development. Harper’s a walking bucket tall point-guard who any team would love to have star in their backcourt operating the offense going forward.
   
   Orlando would be lucky to add a natural scoring creator point guard like Harper with how much talent they already have; after news of San Antonio being open to moving the #2 pick, should The Magic seriously look to to secure Harper as the third star to run the show? After trading for Bane, this feels highly unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 2 – Ceiling: Offensive Engine/All-Star, Defensive Anchor/All-Defense, Floor: High End Starter
   
3. Danny Wolf
   
   Many times this season, Wolf was a one-man offense for Dusty May’s Michigan team, as we discussed on the Learning Basketball Podcast.
   
   Running P&R as a near 7ft ball-handler with powerful rim-roller Vlad Goldin (#36 on this board) provides a proof of theory offensive role that will translate to the league. Danny ran 231 pick-and-rolls as his team’s ball-handler where his 0.94 PPP on P&R including passes ranked in the 65th percentile among all players.
   
   Shooting:
   33% 3P% on 51 Pull-Up 3PA
   34% 3P% on 62 C&S 3PA
   37% 3P% on 30 guarded C&S 3PA
   58% 2P% on 207 Layups
   
   Synergy Scoring Playtpes
   1.14 PPP on 43 Putbacks
   1.09 PPP on 44 Cuts
   1.03 PPP on 31 ISOs (82nd Percentile)
   1.02 PPP on 66 Spot Ups
   0.94 PPP on 33 P&R Roll Man
   
   Danny Wolf is a versatile scorer, a good shooter on and off the ball, an offensive orchestrator who can run either end of a pick-and-roll or spot-up off of a pick-and-pop or space the floor off a drive, a potential offensive playmaking hub who can initiate a team’s offense as a primary scoring creator option. Wolf’s sound footwork, big size, impressive mobility should help him hold his own on defense guarding big 4s and small 5s.
   
   Plus defender, great passer, good shooter, tight handle, two-way feel, unique style, special talent, at 6’11”.
   
   Orlando adding a versatile scoring big man who can run point guard duties and threaten defenses from deep would fill almost all the needs for this offense, freeing up the backcourt to continue to be filled with 3pt shooting scorers and defensive connectors between Bane, Suggs, and AB.
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. Tre Johnson
   
   Tre just posted one of the best shooting seasons any prospect has shown in years. His shot profile is as efficient and versatile as they come. His handle is tight enough to help him get to his spots and create any shot he wants, which he usually can make. His solid feel when defenses send help has shown promising playmaking skills to create for others off of the scoring gravity he brings. This combination could become a lethal scorer with passing chops as a primary option.
   
   Between Tre’s shooting/scoring gravity, the spacing he would breathe into Orlando’s offense, is just about the best possible fit the offense could ask for, someone who draws two on the ball, can hit the open three, and can make good reads to set up others.
   
   After adding Bane, trading up for Tre or anyone who isn’t more of a traditional point guard or D&3 big seems unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Kon Kneuppel
   
   Arguably the most complete offensive guard in the class, Kon’s combination of ball-skills from his handle, vision, shooting touch on and off ball, feel running the offense, ability to operate high volume of pick-and-rolls, should create a sum-of-its parts scoring creator at any level, a reliable offensive engine for any team.
   
   The biggest question mark will be defensively, if Kon can hold his own, but the toughness at his size is promising, the will to win is certainly there.
   
   Flanking Kon with plus-defenders where he’s the worst defender on the floor would be ideal, and elite team defenses like Orlando or Houston could use an offensive engine to make the halfcourt flow hum a little smoother.
   
   
   
   
6. VJ Edgecombe
   
   Outlier athlete who will be one of the NBA’s best athletes on Day 1, incredible defensive playmaker, unstoppable first step downhill burst, promising 3pt shooting development, improved decision-maker as season went on. This uber athlete with a high two-way 3&D floor and intriguing potential as a drive-and-kick scoring threat is a prospect any team would like to take a swing on.
   
   VJ would slide right into Orlando’s elite defensive turnover-forcing culture, and only be asked to hit the 3ball and run some secondary offense, allowing him to grow into his own as an on-ball threat and utilizing his off-ball skills immediately.
   
   
   
   
   
   This back half of the lottery is around where the fit in Orlando starts to get murky. Since this range of prospects are likely to be selected Top-14, Orlando would want to stay away from this 7-14 draft range if they deemed someone in a lower tier of prospect to be a better fit for this Magic team, like Walter Clayton Jr. or Jeremiah Fears. They would theoretically want to trade down from the back half of the lottery to secure them, or in reality probably have to trade up from 25.
   
   
7. Noa Essengue
   
   The downhill force forward with graceful footwork has shown an impressive development curve at one of the youngest ages in the draft class. Already showing defensive versatilty with high-impact in many facets, and transition tenacity as an off-ball mover in fast breaks, rebounds, and cuts, the question remains is how much brighter can Noa’s ever-growing star get.
   
   Can he refine the halfcourt on-ball skills to become a true two-way assassin? Could he define a handful of go-to moves for himself to at least score consistently in addition to his defense and fast break fuel?
   
   His potential is sky-high if he continues developing at this rate. In Orlando, the fit would be tough to find minutes at forward without a 3pt shot, but the energy would be appreciated on any team. Filling a role as a play-finishing center until he develops more ball-skills would be interesting to see play out here; maybe he can become a point-center in transition along with a playfinisher in the halfcourt.
   
   
   
   
8. Asa Newell
   
   Newell offers one of the more stable packages of any draft prospect: a lengthy big wing defender who can switch 3-5, use his high-point athletic gifts to block shots at the rim and time up offensive rebounds, and hit the open catch-and-shoot threes out of pick-and-pop, with the ability to attack closeouts with post-up counter-move footwork.
   
   Newell could slide into Orlando’s front court depth as a capable small-ball 5 or backup 4, a versatile defender who can hit the open three and provide two-way winning impact around the rim and on the glass.
   
   Asa’s defensive versatility, 3pt shooting, offensive rebounds impress most, and he also proved to be an efficient scorer off those putbacks on a high volume of scoring as a lead option for Georgia.
   
   
   
   
9. Khaman Maluach
   
   The most efficient rim-finisher the college game has seen… ever? Maluach lobs are automatic alley-oops. Khaman has great hands catching lob passes, though sometimes struggles with tougher passes inside the paint. He shows shooting touch potential to develop as a pick-and-pop threat, and otherwise is a lethal rim-roller right away. Defensively a smart big man, uses hands and strength effectively, and has potential to be elite on that end as well.
   The defense and rim-rolling would be bring a defined two-way role, but the 3pt shooting development could be a big holdup to his playing time. Khaman would bring two-way winning impact without the jumper just as a rim-rolling defensive anchor, so that alone is worth a look next to Orlando’s creators.
   
   Khaman has the highest offensive rebounde percentage of the class while also rating well in Hakeem %, which combines Block % and Steal % to essentially show what percentage of a team’s turnovers any given player forced.
   
   
   
   
10. Thomas Sorber
    
    Thomas Sorber is an absolute tank.
    Sorber’s smoothie of size, skills, smarts blends into an incredibly intimidating presence that could one day anchor an NBA defense and offer a connective playmaking hub on offense.
    
    Sorber’s 2025 NBA Draft Rank Tank Bonafides:
    
    #1 Body Weight (263)
    #2 Stocks Per Foul (+1.58)
    #3 in Wingspan/Height +/- (+8.75)
    
    Thomas Sorber ranks 3rd in DSI and 7th in ATR via Cerebro., making him one of the top defensive prospects in the class.
    
    Sorber’s cerebral two-way feel for the game wreaks havoc defensively, protects the rim as a defensive anchor, and brings a postup playmaking hub on the offense end. Without a 3pt shot, it would be challenging to win minutes on the Magic, but Thomas Sorber’s potential as a defensive anchor down low is too much to deny.
    
    
    
    
11. Collin Murray-Boyles
    
    CMB shows incredible defensive instincts, two-way feel for the game, graceful downhill strides as powerful 4/small 5 defensive playmaker. A head of steam often opens up Collin’s drives to the rack, with good feel to make smart reads and playmaking vision to execute the passes.
    
    Murray Boyles’ defensive mind is what stands out for him as a prospect, his ability to use his big hands to perfectly time up deflections, force stops, and then grab and go downhill off the turnover.
    
    The fit in Orlando is not great with Paolo at the 4 and CMB’s lack of perimeter shooting, but as a small 5 and backup 4 he would certainly be a winning player on almost any team, despite the worrisome jump shot mechanics.
    
    
    
    
12. Ace Bailey
    
    Bailey is a tough-shot making big wing 3pt sniper who flashes defensive potential. While the unrefined handle and lack of playmaking vision is worrisome as a primary initator for team offense, Bailey’s shooting ability, rebounding activity, and defensive athleticism should all still translate to the next level.
    
    Ace in Orlando’s frontcourt would provide a capable 3pt shooter to stretch the floor, an glass-cleaning rebounder, and potentially an impactful big wing help defender. If Bailey’s able to create his own shot without needing the handle, the two-way potential as a D&3 Big Wing Scorer rises even higher, but that may require outlier development.
    
    
    
    
    
13. Derik Queen
    
    A one-of-a-kind tank big who uses size and graceful strides to finesse his way to the rack like the a bull in a china shop who somehow didn’t break a single dish. Queen’s passing flashes are impressive, showing incredible vision for a player his size, and a handle good enough to help create advantages on the go.
    
    With Paolo in Orlando, the fit for Queen may be tough due to some overlaps in skillsets that aren’t additive to each other, similarly to CMB, but talent can sometimes find a way. Perhaps having either one on the floor at all times could carve out a role as a small-5 or backup-4, and certainly help replicate the offense when Paolo is out due to injury.
    
    Queen’s defensive effort, maximizing his athleticism, and working on the perimeter jumpshot are question marks, but who’s to say Queen can’t become a high-volume foul-drawing downhill force playmaking hub who can score at the rim and create paint-and-spray offense for any team?
    
    The downhill force of players like Collin Murray Boyles and Derik Queen can best be captured in a data viz like this one below comparing Points in the Paint and Free Throw Attempts per game, along with other stats like 3pt assists, to show the results of players who successfully penetrate the paint. Players who bend defenses in the paint are able to attack the rim, draw fouls, and kickout for threes or throw lobs at the rim to the man in the dunker spot.
    
    CMB ranks 9th in FTA and 5th in Points in the Paint per gameQueen ranks 8th in FTA and 7th in Points in the Paint per game
    
    
    
    
    Prospects listed 14-22 could all be good fits in Orlando to help bring depth of talent who fill needs and fit the identity. Trading up for a target or sitting and hoping a bpa from this list is there at 25 are fine strategies for good players.
    
    
    Tier 3 – Ceiling: High-End Starter, Floor: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man
    
14. Walter Clayton Jr.
    
    A 3pt sniper point guard who can beat you off screens, handoffs, pullups. Runs the offense as an initiator, slides right into Orlando’s handoff-heavy system, fills the high-volume 3pt shooter on and off ball as a point guard who can run some offense and set up Orlando’s elite frontcourt scorers and depth of play-finishers in the best possible position to succeed using shooting gravity and quick decision making feel.
    
    As for Orlando’s big board needs, Clayton has a case to be ranked as high as 7 here, but I and many others view everyone ranked between 7 and 14 as a higher tier level of nba prospect. This works out for the Magic, however, since Orlando doesn’t pick until 25, where Clayton might still be available.
    
    An answer to one of the team’s biggest needs could fall right into their laps.
    
    With the addition of Bane, losing the 16th pick, filling a shooting need, ending up with WCJ is less likely to happen, but not out of the question.
    
    As a draft thought exercise, if they moved up to 7, would they do so just to secure Walter Clayton Jr.? Would they move back to the mid-first range where they were before to select Walter closer to where he’s projected? Or is there someone else listed above they’d target in a trade to move up in the draft, like hoping Tre, Kon, or VJ are still there at 7?
    
    Walter Clayton Jr. ranks in 3rd in 3PA/gm volume and 6th in FT%, two positive indicators for future outside shooting development.
    
    
    
15. Jeremiah Fears
    
    Fears quick first step burst is practically impossible to cut off from penetrating the paint, an elite skill advantage that Fears will need to rely on at the next level, along with his impressive decelerating body control weaving in and out of defenses.
    
    Fears shows the killer pull-up 3pt shot and an uncanny ability to draw fouls on drives with a paint-and-spray attitude at a point guard scoring creator looking for the best shot for his team.
    
    Orlando could use his skill-set immediately, as Fears could slide right into the scoring point guard role for this Magic team. Unfortunately, he’ll likely not be available by pick 25. Could Orlando move back up in the draft to land a Fears or Clayton?
    
    
    
16. Ryan Kalkbrenner
    
    Kalkbrenner provides a stable two-way option late in the first round as a traditional rim-protecting big man who can also step out for three.
    
    Ryan will provide team-first winning impact to just about any squad as a playable rotation big with high two-way impact upside as a 3&D center if the shot proves reliable.
    Kalkbrenner sneakily could solve a big need for Orlando at Center, perhaps finally finding its utility big man to do a lot of things well, protect the rim, rebound, score against postup mismatches, and hit the open three around Orlando’s starting frontcourt of Franz and Paolo.
    
    Kalkbrenner being available at 25 for Orlando would be a steal for a reliable D&3 backup big with two-way starter potential.
    
    Kalkbrenner’s 2025 NBA Draft Ranks
    #1 Stocks Per Foul (+2.29)
    #4 Body Weight (257 lbs)
    T-#26th in Wingspan/Height +/- (+5 in)
    
    
    
    
    
17. Cedric Coward
    
    Tied with Rasheer Fleming for having the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (+9 in!), Cedric brings the lengthy measureables to the equation as a 6’5” guard 3pt specialist, a classic energetic D&3 archetype who slides right into a two-way role for any team.
    
    Orlando can’t have enough two-way floor-spacers around its star scorers, especially filling up the backcourt rotation, as KCP and Gary Harris have shown filling D&3 roles through previous seasons. Cedric could be a clean fit to replace that role in the long term for this team as a high-end two-way starter or positive impact role player, though Bane’s addition might prove playmaking and big man needs to be more dire.
    
    
    
    
18. Jase Richardson
    
    Versatile scorer with incredible shooting touch and quick processing skills, positive defensive energy, and strong connector capabilities create a strong two-way presence in Jase Richardson.
    
    While reportedly undersized at the combine, Jase could fill many holes for Orlando’s backcourt as a shooter, scorer, plus-defender who makes team-first decisions with the ball, and shares NBA legacy with his brother Jaxon and father Jason “J-Rich, Magic Legend” Richardson.
    
    
    
19. Carter Bryant
    
    Good defensive feel and capable 3pt shooting 6’7” forward with scoring chops could provide any team with a good basketball player who brings two-way impact.
    
    Orlando could use all the good basketball players they can get around its stars, especially if they fill a D&3 role with scoring being gravy on top, adding Carter could be a fine play for role player depth.
    
    
    
    
    
20. Rasheer Fleming
    
    Tied with Cedric Coward for the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (9in !), Rasheer Fleming offers another D&3 prospect, this time as a 6’8” wing.
    
    With Orlando’s frontcourt depth, there might not be much opportunity to develop. However, there’s always room to try D&3 prospects around the team’s creators, and a role could be found with the second unit and as an injury replacement starter when one of the stars go down. With Black, Da Silva, Isaac on the bench, Fleming does bring a different 3&D dynamic, but would have to compete for playing time.
    
    
    
    
21. Liam McNeeley
    
    High school hoops legend with a knockdown 3pt shot and the aggressive mentality to dunk on drives when attacking closeouts. Liam could fill a role as a 3pt shooter off the ball and a shooting threat off handoffs and screens, someone who can reboudn, handle, and pass well enough to keep the ball moving and make the right decision for the team, and even initiate some offense as a secondary creator at times.
    
    Orlando would be a clean fit for the 3pt shooter as a 6th man who spread the floor, attacks closeouts, runs a few DHOs/P&Rs, and mostly spreads the floor.
    
    The defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the functional size is there for Liam (6’7”, 215) to be a big guard who plays with a contagious fire, can light it up from deep, dunk on your head, and excite any crowd with intensity.
    
    
    
    
    
22. Nique Clifford
    
    If scoring versatility is the game, Nique Clifford is the name. Clifford can beat defenses in a multitude of ways to put the ball in the rack rather efficiently. He can provide plus-defense for his team on and off the ball. He’s a walking bucket who put himself on the map at Colorado.
    
    With Orlando drafting Tristan Da Silva last year, and Nique bringing similar scoring versatility to the table, maybe that’s a sign that he’s a good target as a potential backup 2-guard to Bane, since you can’t really have enough good basketball players who can score in a variety of ways, make big defensive plays, and make team-first decisions with the ball.
    
    An all-around portfolio, Nique Clifford ranks 4th in PSP, 9th in FGS, and 1st amongst guards in At The Rim.
    
    
    
    
23. Kasparas Jakučionis
    
    A tall point-guard pick-and-roll assassin with a go-to stepback pull-up three who uses body control, fundamental footwork, and impressive finishing at the rim to draw defenders into the paint for kickouts, whistles, and shots at rim. Kasparas can help generate offense on a whim.
    
    While Orlando has Franz in place filling a highly similar role, it’s not actually the worst idea to have a backup Franz in case of emergency. Kasparas is much smaller, but brings a similar playstyle that would help replicate Orlando’s offensive identity whether Franz shares the court or not.
    
    With both being better on pull-ups than catch-and-shoots, they might be better staggered, but that could provide Orlando with one reliable “point-forward” at all times. Despite that, the lack of defense and C&S 3pt shot make this a questionable fit.
    
    
    
    
24. Noah Penda
    
    An energetic defensive play-finisher that moves around the court so frenetically he looks like he snuck a diet Dew into his pregame Gatorade bottle, Penda is a strong playfinisher, smart connective passer, and active off-ball mover, rebounder, defender.
    
    Penda will likely be a high-end starter for a winning team, even if its as the 5th starter piece of the perfectly balanced lineup, but the lack of offensive juice could limit his lineup options in Orlando, providing a tough opportunity to develop.
    
    Could he be in winning lineups? Yes. Would he be able to play with Franz and Paolo as the longterm C? Maybe not. A winning depth piece that could be a value pick depending on the slot, but might be a tough fit for playing time in a crowded Orlando frontcourt. As a longterm backup 4 plug-and-play big, there is potential here for Penda’s play-finishing.
    
    
    
    
25. Adou Theiro
    
    Explosive NBA athlete who forces turnovers everywhere defnsively as a dynamic 6’6” wing who flies off the page anytime he opens a book. Raw offense but shows enough all-around potential to carve out a two-way role with patient development. Energetic defense, fast break missile launches, espn top-10 slams should quickly make him an exciting household name for fans.
    
    While the upside would be an intriguing upside play, its hard to see his opportunity to develop with the starting unit in Orlando. If he’s got the highest ceiling available at 25, maybe the team takes a swing on talent the later the draft goes, but finding a player who can fill roles and needs for this Magic team that just made moves to win now should take priority.
    
    
    
    
    Tier 4 – Ceiling: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man, Floor: Fringe Rotation Player
    
26. Will Riley
    
    Raw intriguing talent as as 3pt shooter and connective passer who can make impact plays off ball and who rated highly in BPM throughout the season, even overtaking Kasparas some in ball duties for Illinois as the season went on.
    
    This would be a dice roll on talent, impact, upside for Orlando, which isn’t a bad choice this late in the draft. While one could attempt to address a need at PG, C, or general shooting, this is a bet on talent, in-house development. Since Orlando has stated win-now goals, this idea is less likely to happen than the team taking one of the shooters or play-finishers over the next stretch, but hitting on an exciting 3pt connector late in the draft could be a huge swing for the Magic.
    
    
    
27. Javon Small
    
    A tough small guard who does just about everything well, Small has earned a look to be an NBA rotation guard, and few players fit the ilk of Orlando’s team identity better.
    
    Small gives no ground defensively, can guard multiple positions from the backcourt, and then he can turn around and initiate offense as the point guard running different playtypes, hit the jumper on and off the ball from deep, and score within different playtypes as well.
    
    Versatile scoring creator, capable 3pt shooter, and positive impact defender is just the type of guard Orlando covets around its stars.
    
    With Bane’s arrival to a backcourt already featuring Suggs, Small would make an interesting understudy to them both.
    
    
    
    
    
    
28. Sion James
    
    NBA Athlete who filled his role so well it expanded as the Duke season went on.
    
    Attacks closeouts, provides effort hustle plays defensively, at 6’6” can play 1-3 with tenacious on-ball defense, has a quick first step burst and explosive verticality and good feel for where to be and what to do.
    
    Sion could immediately help a winning team filling a small role, and in Orlando he’d get to do just that. Capable C&S 3pt shooter who can bend the defense, penetrate the paint, keep the ball moving, and defend his own would be more than welcome in O-Town.
    
    
    
    
    
    
29. Kam Jones
    
    Versatile old-school scoring guard who can get buckets, get in the paint, get to the line, and get his teammates open. Questionable defender at the next level, but the buckets should look smooth doing it.
    
    Kam could address some of Orlando’s offensive woes, while Orlando’s elite team defense could cover up some of Kam’s defensive holes. The Magic could add one of college basketball’s best scorers last year late in the first round or potentially even in the second round, where either way Jones could fill a role as a scorer, shooter, connective passer, and secondary playmaker creating offense for the team.
    
    Kam has the best combination of AST% and TO% of any draft prospect:
    
    
    
30. Nolan Traore
    
    Traore’s combination of quick first step burst, connective playmaking, defensive footwork, and perimeter shooting flashes earned him the nod here for the 30th spot on this Magic-centric big board over prospects like Koby Brea’s 3pt shooting and Vlad Goldin’s sound rim-protecting rim-rolling presence, or the two-way high floor throwback scoring of Johni Broome.
    
    If The Magic are taking gambles this late in the draft, maybe they should take a swing on a shooter like Brea who might launch 8 3PA per game one day? If the team wants two-way winning players to fill out the rotation to help compete today, a bet on Broome, Traore, or Goldin is probably better.
    
    Both choices depend on how many picks Orlando keeps (down to 3), how much contribution they expect from rookies right away (probably a lot), and what kind of risks the team is willing to take when it comes being patient with draft picks compared to the value of adding more proven talent through other avenues of team-building. (Bane says its time to win)
    
    
    
31. Johni Broome
32. Ben Saraf
33. Vlad Goldin
34. Maxime Raynaud
35. Hansen Yang
36. Koby Brea
37. Mark Sears
38. Egor Demin
39. Amari Williams
    
    Tier 5 – Ceiling: Raw Potential NBA Pro, Floor: International Pro
40. Joan Beringer
41. Eric Dixon
42. Chaz Lanier
43. Drake Powell
44. Jamir Watkins
45. Arthur Kaluma
46. RJ Luis Jr.
47. Max Shulga
48. Alijah Martin
49. Ryan Nembhard
50. Tyrese Proctor
51. Alex Toohey
52. Yanic Konan Niederhauser
53. Hugo Gonzalez
54. Dink Pate
55. Rocco Zikarsky
56. Kobe Sanders
57. Hunter Sallis
58. Will Richard
59. John Tonje
60. Chris Manon

So – which prospect has the most potential and best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando, given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Orlando keeps at least two of its three picks, both in the range of its current slots (25 + 46-57)

As of today, 13 players have been invited to the NBA Green Room for Draft night, with expectations to be selected relatively high, and Noa Essengue likely to receive an invite once he finishes playing overseas.

Those 13 Green Room names (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell) are likely to be taken by the 25th overall pick where Orlando sits, but that might not be a bad thing for every name here, and there’s always a few surprise names who slip every year.

The ideal players slipping among this group (other than Flagg) would be skilled scorers like Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel, or the explosive defender VJ Edgecombe, but that was much likelier to possibly happen at 16, not 25.

With his quick first step burst, 3pt shooting potential, natural point guard feel, Jeremiah Fears is one of the more interesting names to watch if he’s still available at the 25th slot, but another to unlikely be available outside of the lottery.

Later in the mid-first round draft range, prospects like Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Carter Bryant, and Cedric Coward could all fit nicely in Orlando’s backcourt. All these guards space the floor and offer varying levels of scoring, defense, and shooting skills, which all help balance out and contribute quickly to Orlando’s paint-and-spray big wing attack. Nique Clifford another name to watch as a scorer, passer, and plus-defender.

If Danny Wolf is still available, that’s the big name to watch for Orlando: A point-center/forward (✓), a 3pt shooter on and off ball (✓), with size and footwork to guard big 4s and small 5s (✓), who shows incredibly unique two-way feel for the game at nearly 7ft tall (✓) , and is, you guessed it, a Michigan Man. (✓)

Wolf is a proven offensive orchestrator who can run pick-and-rolls with ease, slide into the short-roll playmaker on the next set, spread the floor for three the next possession, and play connector playmaking hub the next play. The Magic need a point-something who can hit the open three, play connector next to the stars, yet also initiate the offense so those stars don’t have to every time down the floor. Finding a unique big man who can fill those roles in an already formidable frontcourt and 1-4 starting unit set would be a worthwhile experiment on a high-risk high-reward high-feel high-potential swing.

Another name that makes too much sense for the Orlando Magic if he’s sitting there at 25?

UF’s own NCAA Champion, Walter Clayton Jr., who has as worthy of a case as just about any prospect to be this Magic team’s primary target.

Clayton lights up the gym from deep like its nothing, an efficient high-volume 3pt sniper who can shoot on and off ball, run some P&R offense, and flow right into Orlando’s handoff heavy system, fitting seamlessly with a big shot pedigree that may even remind one of Jalen Suggs.

A huge value play at 25 would be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the smart rim-protecting presence out of Creighton who flashes C&S 3pt shooting potential as a pick-and-pop rim-rolling threat. Orlando’s constant hunt for its longterm reliable big man continues, and a potential D&3 bet could be a nice play for a 3pt shooting shot-swatting big man that can be harder to find that one might think.

Assuming all the names above are off the board, then a few late-first round/fringe second round targets to watch could be complete role players: guards like Kam Jones, Javon Small, and Nolan Traore; bigs like Vlad Goldin, Wolf’s Michigan teammate and strong rim-rolling rim-protector, or intriguing big man playmakers Maxime Raynaud and Hansen Yang.

Some of the above names could slip to Orlando’s late second round slots, but given the lack of depth in this class due to all the NIL dropouts, its no guarantee. Packaging two seconds or the 25th pick to move around in the draft, maybe to an earlier second round pick to secure the guy you want and add a future pick is always good value play for a team that just needs to leave this draft with one good basketball player somewhere between 25-57. Even moving back from 25 to the 30s wouldn’t lose much potential value on a pick, especially if the team can use good process to add a future pick on top of it.

With Orlando’s final pick(s) in the 45-57 range, if none of the players listed above are available, the Magic could take a swing on a backup point guard like Mark Sears or Ryan Nembhard, or a potential 3pt shooter like Koby Brea, Arthur Kaluma, Eric Dixon, Chaz Lanier or Tyrese Proctor

Orlando Magic Draft Targets Within Range:

25
Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton Jr., Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jeremiah Fears, Nique Clifford, Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Cedric Coward, Carter Bryant, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Nolan Traore, Vlad Goldin, Johni Broome


45-57
anyone listed above who is still available + Hansen Yang, Maxime Raynaud, Eric Dixon, Koby Brea, Mark Sears, Ryan Nembhard, Chaz Lanier, Arthur Kaluma, Tyrese Proctor


After the Bane trade, it seems less likely that Orlando will invest in another 2-guard; however, with Gary Harris and Jett Howard as the lone SG depth on the roster, maybe finding a high-end two-way wing is still a priority.

The top-2 goals this summer for Orlando now:

1) Target and acquire a long-term starting Center, or a prospect who can become a D&3 big with a little scoring juice
2) Round out rotation with playable depth for a playoff run, between a natural point guard or a 2/3 size wing who can shoot and defend

Of course, the Magic just made their big move. They probably don’t feel pressure to do anything else if they feel this roster is ready to contend already, but if any question remains about the shooting, the center play, the depth, paths to upgrade exist.

Magic fans have been counting down the days for something big to happen like this for years; a consolidation trade to bring this team closer to contending. The team made its goals clear: proven offensive talent was needed, and acquired.

They took their big swing to first address this need by dishing out four first rounders, a pick swap,, Cole + KCP for Bane.

Are the Magic finished making moves?

Maybe Orlando somehow trades into the Top-10 for Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, or Kon Knueppel to help balance the offense, but now that the team has packaged some picks and rotation players for a more proven offensive talent, it seems likelier the team will stay put at 25 to target a good player on a rookie deal, or package its picks to move around the draft for their target.

When it comes to draft night trades, there are plenty of reasons to make deals.

Here’s 5:

1) Front offices are filled with humans, and deadliens create urge for humans. Teams wait for dates like the trade deadline and draft night to make moves for many reasons, one being to evaluate every possible deal and ounce of leverage before settling on a trade packge. But on those nights, anything can happen – some teams are on edge, some desperate, some excited to make a splash, whether that be a big draft night selection or a midnight trade to excite fans with something new over the off-season; as draft day approaches, unpredictable chaos and impulse decisions await.

2) Consensus big boards allow teams to view draft slot ranges where prospects are most expected to land between, so given the knowledge of other team needs/connections/identity, this opens up opportunities to trade up in the draft to secure a coveted prospect, or move back in the draft to add draft capital if your coveted prospect isn’t likely to be considered anytime around the slot you currently possess.

3) Trading out of the draft for additional future picks is almost always a good decision, even if taking on salary to do so. This generally smart draft process acquires extra draft capital for the price of today’s, just because other teams (owners) generally prefer to have the draft pick *that* night, and are willing to pay extra to do it.

4) Pre-agency: Star players, draft picks, and every nba player in between share the same agencies; all sides talk every possibility long before they happen. If a team believes a major splash is available, their best chance to take the dive is on draft night, the last night where the picks posses the most value they’ll ever have because that pick can still potentially be *anything*, before the car is driven off the lot and becomes an actual player the next day, losing value just by going from potential to reality.

5) Christmas Morning: Fans love a good trade, a fresh face, a new name to see on posters, sides of buildings, tv commercials. Draft Day should be a national holiday, as watching the first team go On The Clock feels like waking up on Christmas Morning, where any team’s fans can still get any gift. Few feelings are as fun for a fan like watching a midnight move go down or a surprise draft pick get made (#ThankYouBane), but few feelings are as sad for fans as seeing their favorite players sent out the door. (#RIPOrlandipo)

The Magic went into the summer shopping these trade pieces first:

Draft Picks: 16, 25, 45, 57, PHX 2026 Swap, Future 1sts
Prospects like Tristan Da Silva and Jett Howard
Rotation Players on Good Contracts like Jonathan Isaac, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Goga Bitadze

I would have bet a combination of 16, 25, Tristan Da Silva, Cole Anthony, and Jonathan Isaac or some mix of good role players on good salaries would be enough of well-rounded offer to pry one of these proven talents away from a rebuilding team.

Turns out the Magic could keep Black, Suggs, Da Silva, Isaac, 25 if they just sent out 4 future first rounders that have a good chance to be in the back half of the first round.


Magic Fans’ prayers have been answered.

Desmond Bane instantly provides Orlando with the high-volume 3pt sniper they’ve always wanted, a tough defender, a team-first connector passer who can run some offense and score in a variety of ways.

Suggs – Bane – Franz – Paolo – Wendell – Black – Da Silva – Isaac – Goga

Orlando’s got a young prime rotation to build around, an elite defense, two stars, five ball-handlers, and multiple all-defensive candidates too boot.

Now the team just needs to dot some ‘i’s, cross some ‘t’s, and hopefully draft another exciting prospect to add to the deep young core like Walter Clayton Jr., Danny Wolf, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Cedric Coward, Javon Small, on draft night

I guess we’ll just have to wait and find out what happens next on June 25th at 8:00pm EST.

The 2025 NBA Draft Countdown Clock BEGINS!

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VJ Edgecombe

Valdez (VJ) Edgecombe has been a projected top 5 pick wire to wire in this class. Despite a rocky start to the season, Edgecombe’s status as a blue chip recruit seemed well deserved after a freshman season that placed him in exclusive company.

As much as Bart Torvik queries have become a fraught subject amongst the draft community, when taking an Occam’s Razor approach it is apparent there’s not really a precedent for a player with Edgecombe’s intersection of feel, athleticism, and production becoming an abject failure in the league (barring unforeseen circumstances taking place in the case of Zhaire Smith).

So if Edgecombe has the pedigree and production, what consternation is there with his current standing near the top of the draft? To start, one may point to VJ’s suboptimal finishing at the rim. While Edgecombe ended the season at a solid 60% at the rim, his rim efficiency was largely inflated by his dynamic vertical athleticism and transition frequency. Just under 48% of Edgecombe’s rim-attempts came in transition, while in the halfcourt Edgecombe finished only 49% at the rim and a disconcerting 44% on half-court layups. However, this is not a novel insight; most publications and scouts have noted VJ’s half-court limitations for some time, with his unrefined ballhandling typically being pointed to as the culprit of his unimpressive rim-finishing. Per @henrynbadraft, Edgecombe’s relative weakness at the rim has been present since his time on the grassroots circuit. In the query below of top-50 RSCI players’ AAU statistics over the past 3 years, along with Edgecombe, these were the only players to have <53% on two-point attempts (2PA), <0.6 2PA/TSA (true shot attempt), and <0.1 FTA/TSA.

Of the 5 players here (excluding Edgecombe) to play over a 50% minutes share, their average rim-rate was 20.9% as a freshman. With the exception of VJ, these players were either three-point specialists or jumpshot-oriented creators. With VJ not falling into either bucket he was placed in a precarious position, how does one deploy a blue-chip recruit without a clearly defined offensive skillset? Early in the season, the fit could best be described as ‘trying to fit a square peg into a round hole’. Baylor runs a notoriously ballscreen-heavy offense, finishing this season in the 81st percentile in ‘Pick-and-Roll’ frequency, and over the last 5 years Baylor has never finished lower than the 77th percentile in this playtype.

Operating core ballscreen actions in the middle third of the floor, Edgecombe greatly struggled generating deep, quality paint touches. When asked to create from a standstill against a set defense as frequently as Edgecombe was, his high center of gravity caused issues changing direction off a live dribble, withstanding contact on drives, and altering stride length, all of which are critical components of any downhill driving game. The convergence of Edgecombe’s physical and skill limitations as a primary ballhandler is evident from the clips below.

When you pair this schematic emphasis on running ballscreens with one of the slowest paces in the country (Baylor finished 320/364 teams in Adjusted Tempo) you are left with a team uniquely suited to exacerbating Edgecombe’s weaknesses and suppressing his strengths. I believe this combination is the primary cause of Baylor’s offense being BETTER with Edgecombe on the bench. Per Hoop-Explorer, Baylor’s offense was 7.6 points better per 100 possessions. While the 479 possessions Edgecombe wasn’t on the floor isn’t the most robust sample, the underlying numbers fall in line with what the film suggests. Baylor’s shot quality suffered with Edgecombe running 24% of the team’s PNR actions per Synergy. Not only was Baylor less capable of generating threes and free-throw attempts, the QUALITY of three-point attempts was lower with Edgecombe on the floor, with the team shooting almost 2 less corner threes per 100 possessions.

Even if Edgecombe’s outlook as a downhill creator is replete with red flags, there are still other avenues Edgecombe could take to develop into a star-level offensive player. After all, despite getting off to a rough start shooting this season, Edgecombe’s shooting priors are near stellar. Coming into the year, Edgecombe had shot 39.1% on 274 threes and 79.9% on 134 free-throw attempts. These numbers indicate that Edgecombe developing into a potent off-the-dribble is well within the realm of possibility. And when looking at historical precedent, significant pull-up shooting development may be the most integral component to Edgecombe returning top-5 value. Below are all the players drafted in the lottery since 2010 who were: 6’5 or shorter, with 5 or fewer unassisted two-point makes per 100 possessions, and 30% or more of their two’s assisted (per Bart Torvik)

Virtually all of these players who returned positive expected value based on their draft slot developed into highly effective shooters off the dribble. And where it currently stands, Edgecombe is behind the curve in this respect. Compared to the players in the previous query, Edgecombe finished his pre-NBA season with the lowest volume AND tied for the 2nd worst efficiency on these pull-up twos.

Edgecombe’s lack of comfort shooting off the dribble is apparent on film, and another facet of his game limited by his handle. VJ cannot self-organize off multiple dribbles and take pull-up jumpers on balance currently, and the line between midrange attempts and floaters is frequently blurred when Edgecombe takes these shots.

Again, VJ’s issues shooting off the dribble date back to his pre-NCAA career and are rooted in his biomechanical issues. Edgecombe being a ‘high-hipped’ athlete who struggles decelerating is preventing him from leveraging his impressive straight-line speed to create space off the dribble. VJ’s proclivity for over-striding on drives limits how effectively he can generate power when he transitions into a pull-up jumper.

My current hypothesis is Edgecombe’s difficulty controlling his stride length while driving is what’s responsible for the discrepancy between VJ’s dynamism leaping off 2 feet, where he’s arguably the most explosive player in this draft class, versus 1 foot, where he’s struggled greatly relative to expectations. Baylor’s coaching staff made schematic changes for Edgecombe to improve his on-ball efficacy, from using guard-to-guard Ghost Screens to clear driving lanes…

…to using actions such as ’77 Shallow’ in order to simultaneously beat hedging ballscreen coverages and remove nail-help to aid Edgecombe’s drives.

However, neither adjustment bolstered Edgecombe’s efficiency to the desired extent. So this begs the question, if there’s reason for concern with regards to Edgecombe’s effectiveness as a pull-up shooter AND attacking the basket, is there any reason to believe Edgecombe’s profile warrants his lofty draft projection? As previously mentioned, Edgecombe’s deployment in an extremely ballscreen heavy offense was far from ideal, however his playtype distribution does not paint the full picture of how inconducive Baylor’s offense was for Edgecombe specifically.

The 3-man lineup of VJ Edgecombe, Norchad Omier, and Josh Ojianwuna makes up 22.5% of VJ Edgecombe’s total possessions played this season, however this lineup was on the floor for 26.9% of PNR possessions ran by Edgecombe this season. In Offensive Rating, this 3-man lineup was 22nd out of 25 Baylor lineups that played over 350 possessions, with this 3-man unit’s only saving grace being their relative strength on the offensive glass.

This lineup’s spacing issues only amplified Edgecombe’s aforementioned struggles as a primary ballhandler. Take the clips below, for example. This group of clips displays Baylor running ‘RAM PNP’, a staple of their ballscreen offense, where a player receives an off-ball screen before setting the middle ballscreen and ‘popping’ to the 3-point line. In the first clip, Baylor has the 2 bigs involved in the action, with Norchad Omier first receiving the off-ball screen before setting a ballscreen for Edgecombe. Notice how compacted the spacing is inside the arc, with Omier’s defender completely disregarding the popping Omier.

However, in the following clips, a ‘small’ sets the middle ballscreen for Edgecombe. Even in the first possessions with the action taking place against the same opponent in Tennessee, the improvement in shot quality is apparent.

The double-big lineups’ impact on tape was corroborated by VJ’s PNR data, as well.

Ultimately, this is a minuscule sample of possessions Edgecombe played with the double big lineup, and I do not want to make it seem as though these suboptimal lineups are totally responsible for VJ’s issues as a PNR ballhandler. However, I do think this data is key to realizing that Edgecombe’s outlook as a creator isn’t entirely doomed. Of players with ≥ 150 PNR + Passes possessions, Edgecombe was ranked in the 40th percentile in PPP, but in lineups with only one big Edgecombe’s 0.944 PPP was in the 66th percentile. Over the course of the season Baylor substituted these 3-man ballscreen actions with ‘Empty’ PNRs to ‘clear up’ the picture for Edgecombe on drives and place less strain on his handle. In these less complex ballscreen actions, Edgecombe’s processing (which well outpaces the functionality of his handle at this point) was able to truly shine.

My case for optimism in Edgecombe’s creation ability is relative to the position taken by his greatest detractors. The likelihood of VJ becoming a high-level PNR operator is slim-to-none in my opinion, but this doesn’t preclude the possibility of him becoming a highly valuable offensive player. The use case for VJ Edgecombe offensively just requires a degree of creativity.

For as many questions as I’ve raised regarding the functionality of VJ’s athleticism, there have only been a few players his size to reach certain athletic benchmarks. Below is a query I’ve run on players since 2010, where ‘Team Stock%’ is the share of a team’s steals+blocks a player logged. I decided to use this instead of steal and block rate to account for some noise introduced by team stylistic tendencies.

The only other players to appear alongside Edgecombe are players whose role I’ve termed ‘Utility Guards’, those with the size of perimeter players who can fulfill responsibilities typically associated with frontcourt players. This sort of role is where I see Edgecombe being best utilized. As VJ transitions to the NBA and his on-ball burden lessens, I would hope that Edgecombe is integrated as a stylistic wrinkle versus a featured piece. There may not be a team better at deploying their guards in such a manner than the Boston Celtics. With the acquisition of Jrue Holiday, the Celtics could place teams in conflict without deliberately involving Holiday in actions. By simply stationing Holiday in the Dunker Spot, the Celtics were afforded the luxury of having a player who could function as an outlet for their jumbo creators on drives and consistently win the rebounding battle versus like-sized perimeter players.

In the original ‘Utility Guard’ query I provided, pre-NBA 3-point volume and efficiency were listed. The relevancy of these stats outside of the obvious is the prevalence of the most consistent counter used to neutralize this archetype. I am currently writing this article as the Eastern Conference Finals takes place, and much has been made of Josh Hart’s ineffectiveness in the series, with the Knicks coaching staff going as far as removing Hart from the starting lineup. What has plagued Hart and many of these Swiss army knife players (at least offensively) is the lack of consistent spacing they provide. Opponents have experienced success defending these players with Centers and ignoring them on the perimeter. What makes the prospect of Edgecombe in this role especially tantalizing is the confidence I have in his ability as a spot-up shooter.

Granted, a significant portion of these attempts are from the high-school line, and Edgecombe has shot a paltry 24.4% (19/79) on off-the-dribble 3PA in the same timeframe. But at the same stage of their careers, Edgecombe is significantly further along as a spacer than players of a similar archetype, while also possessing the explosiveness to take advantage of opportunities as a screener like Gary Payton II in the clip below…

Or exploit cross-matches versus bigs in space, as he does to Henri Veesaar in the play below.

And as previously mentioned, Baylor’s PNR-heavy style being centered around smaller guards who couldn’t create advantages eradicated opportunistic scoring from Edgecombe’s shot diet. The few chances Edgecombe has had to attack from the weakside or get downhill versus a tilted floor, he delivered.

Obviously, there’s only so much accommodating a team would want to subject themselves to when it comes to a player drafted as high as VJ will be. However, a player capable of providing lineup and stylistic flexibility without compromising spacing or rebounding is scarcely made available at a rookie deal price point. This archetype’s dependence on high-leverage creators is undeniable, but this era of the NBA reflects the appeal of a prospect like VJ Edgecombe. Sacrificing the size traditionally associated with certain roles in favor of skill can pay massive dividends.

Miles Byrd

Any reservations to be had with Miles Byrd are fairly straightforward; a glance at a query of players with Byrd’s combination of size and scoring inefficiency yields a list almost bereft of long-tenured NBA contributors.

It wouldn’t be entirely off-base to say the only reason the majority of this list was even able to enter the draft pool was due to exceptional high school pedigrees. The obvious throughline between success cases of this query is their high-level defensive aptitude. There is definitely reason to believe Byrd’s defensive capabilities are enough to buoy his NBA prospects, as of the players in the above query, Byrd has the highest Block and Steal rate. To my surprise, however, Byrd’s impact on San Diego State’s defensive efficiency was muted relative to his statistical production on this end of the floor. Per Hoop-Explorer, San Diego State’s defense was only 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Byrd On Court vs Off. Perhaps most unexpectedly though, SDSU’s Defensive Turnover Rate remained unchanged regardless of whether Byrd was playing or not!

Watching the tape, it is fairly easy to draw conclusions as to what could be behind the discrepancy between Byrd’s stellar event creation numbers, and the On-Off Splits. San Diego State runs an aggressive switching scheme, which incentivizes players to sacrifice ‘sound’ positioning in favor of forcing opponents into congested areas of the floor where they are more prone to committing turnovers. Byrd’s tape is littered with possessions where he is overhelping, or even throwing himself out of position by jumping passing lanes and attempting to create havoc.

Referencing SDSU’s defensive resume, there are two statistics that are key to elucidating Byrd’s directive schematically.

San Diego State was in the Bottom 10 in Opponent 3-point Rate, while leading the nation in Block Rate. It seems Head Coach Brian Dutcher was comfortable with trading off 3-point attempts as long as they were able to pack the paint and prevent their deep-lying shell from being compromised. This philosophy has been a defining trait of the Dutcher era, with SDSU ranking in the top 200 in opponent 3-point rate once in his 7 years at the helm, and outside the top 300 three times, including this year. SDSU’s Block% is relevant to their scheme and Byrd’s defensive evaluation because it empowered Byrd to take risks on the perimeter. If Byrd made an ill-advised gamble and provided the opponent a numerical advantage to attack, they still had to contend with a formidable frontcourt led by Magoon Gwath who finished 4th in the country in Block%.

Synthesizing this information initially led me to take a skeptical approach to Byrd’s defensive translatability. And prompted a less charitable interpretation of instances where Byrd’s point-of-attack defense faltered…

…or Byrd’s lack of strength seemed to be insulated by SDSU’s constant switching.

And while these were valid concerns at the time, taking a more holistic approach to Miles Byrd’s defensive profile incited me to revise my approach. But before delving deeper into the defensive side of things, I believe Byrd’s offense deserves further attention.

The Case for Miles Byrd’s Offense

Of the 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, San Diego State was 61st in Adjusted Offensive Rating, surpassing only the four 16 seeds in the field, Bryant, Troy, and Robert Morris in offensive efficiency. Historically speaking, San Diego State under Bryan Dutcher has never been a system conducive to high-octane offenses. A look at SDSU’s offensive statistical profile over the years portrays a team that plays a deliberate style without generating high-quality, schemed looks.

Too often, there’s a false equivalency drawn between slow offense and bad offense. That’s far from the case in my opinion, one only need to look as far as the NCAA and NBA champions in the 2023-24 season, the UConn Huskies and Boston Celtics. Both teams played a laborious style, but with intent. UConn’s meticulously schemed motion offense was incredibly efficient, creating clean looks for their bevy of shooters. Boston’s dominant run through this past season was defined by their relentless matchup hunting and isolation game. San Diego State, though, according to their own coach, is willing to play a much more laissez-faire approach to offense. On the Basketball Immersion Podcast, Dutcher discussed his philosophy on his offense in relation to his defense as “We spend a lot of time on defense. You’re good at what you work at…we might spend 50-60% of practice on defense…Offensively, we play with great freedom. We play with freedom within framework, we have things we try to accomplish but we like high IQ guys that can break out of that at any moment and just make plays.”

Although in many areas of the game flexibility is an admirable trait, in this instance, SDSU’s willingness to grant players freedom offensive autonomy has resulted in a consistently undesirable shot profile. Below is SDSU’s shot profile data under Brian Dutcher, with Near Proximity field goal attempts being defined as layups, dunks, and tip-ins.

Even with the offensive context being subpar, anyone who has read this far is probably looking for a better explanation for Miles Byrd’s offensive shortcomings than ‘the spacing and system were terrible.’ After all, this could be applied to a litany of former prospects. Despite a team’s structural issues, a player shouldn’t be entirely absolved of the product right? In Byrd’s case, though, despite the uninspiring raw efficiency, he finished in the 87th percentile in Offensive On-Off, per cbbanalytics. San Diego State was 8.9 points per 100 possessions better with Byrd on the court, due to his contribution in a few areas.

First, Miles Byrd is a stellar example of the importance of interior passing. Ranking in the 92nd percentile in Rim-Assists/40 minutes and the 96th percentile in the percent of total assists at the rim, on a per-touch basis Byrd was extremely efficient as a playmaker. Without running a high volume of PNR, Byrd routinely displayed a diverse passing vocabulary in the few opportunities he had attacking a tilted defense.

Even though I would consider Byrd’s handle a weakness at the moment, his penchant for playmaking manifested in his schemed possessions as well. The glut of actions drawn up for Byrd were ‘Spanoulis’ or ‘Zoom Chicago’, but he did operate and was effective in a limited sample as a PNR ballhandler, finishing in the 84th percentile in PNR PPP.

What Byrd’s projection on this end will be reduced to, though, will be how consistent a spacer he will become. Ending the season shooting only 30.3% from 3 on a robust 11.7 3PA/100, I am more optimistic Byrd will develop into an effective spacer than the raw numbers indicate. A significant portion of the optimism lies in Byrd’s stellar three-point volume and career 82.8% FT%, while also being rooted in the circumstances brought on by SDSU’s offense. On Guarded 3PA Byrd shot 37.2% (32/86), which was significantly better than the 23.1% (12/52) Byrd shot on Unguarded 3PA. My hypothesis as to how this could have been possible is that half of Byrd’s 3PA were classified as ‘Long Threes’ which per cbbdata are 3PA from 25+ feet. Already lacking in physical strength, oftentimes Byrd was placed in the position of HAVING to take long 3PA when his teammates were incapable of penetrating and breaking the defensive shell on the initial action.

What may be the strongest evidence for optimism in Byrd’s offensive profile is how extensive a creation burden he was tasked with. Over the course of researching relevant data for this piece, I’d realized Byrd’s self-created shot volume stood out amongst similarly sized players from previous drafts. This past season, only 22.9% of Miles Byrd’s two-point attempts were assisted and he produced 7.42 Unassisted 2PA per 100, a shot distribution more in line with guards trusted with generating half-court offense. To gauge how Byrd’s creation compared to similarly sized players, I conducted a (slightly overfitted) query…

….which yielded this list of 72 players since 2010

50th percentile EPM in the NBA this year (regular season) is -1.71 and slightly over half of this list’s 3 Year Peak EPM surpasses this number. Considering the draft capital (or lack thereof) spent on these players, a majority of them outperformed the expected value attributed to their draft slotting. Notably in the mix here are some of the most impressive recent ‘margin wins’ in Naji Marshall, Herb Jones, and Aaron Wiggins. And while there are some significant disappointments (like a Jarrett Culver or Johnny Davis), even some widely considered ‘busts’ such as Evan Turner managed to contribute in the league for a significant period of time. Two shared traits with players unable to stick in the league were:

1. Lacking a complementary offensive skillset (perimeter shooting, connective passing, and other play-finishing traits)
2. An inability to contribute defensively.

As previously outlined, I’m of the mind that San Diego State’s offensive ecosystem deprived Byrd of opportunities to display the former, and in the next section I plan on quelling concerns of the latter issue.

Tying it all together

For all the aforementioned reasons, Miles Byrd and VJ Edgecombe’s profiles are not without their flaws. There are probably plenty of issues with their skill sets that I haven’t mentioned that would make teams wary of drafting them. What these two have in common, and what has been particularly enamoring, is the seamlessness with which they fit into the modern game. Particularly defensively, Edgecombe and Byrd embody traits that I believe are necessary to play in today’s style.

After this season, Miles Byrd found himself in rare company with his defensive production. The list of non-bigs who managed to contribute to elite defense to the degree Byrd did, while maintaining a baseline level of feel, is exceedingly small.

Taking account of the right-most column, zone-heavy teams seem disproportionately represented amongst this group of players, making Byrd’s inclusion even more compelling. Per Synergy, San Diego State only logged 2 (!!) possessions of zone defense this entire season. Circling back to the initial concerns raised about SDSU’s defense and how relevant Byrd’s responsibilities within the scheme would be to what he’ll be asked to do at the next level, I believe SDSU’s scheme is one of the college defenses most analogous to the NBA systems currently in vogue.

Earlier, I had mentioned SDSU’s willingness to switch in conjunction with their tendency to show help early and often as a potential crutch for Miles Byrd, an obstacle in properly evaluating his defense. Originally, I’d thought if I were unable to assess Byrd’s ability to perform in ONE isolated defensive role, whether it be screen navigation, POA defense, or weakside rim-protection, then I’d be unable to determine which defensive role best suited him. The direction defenses in the NBA are heading, though, proves this is an antiquated way of evaluating defensive talent. In the same way competency in dribbling, passing, and shooting has become requisite for incoming NBA players, we have now arrived in an era where personnel need to demonstrate a degree of proficiency in each facet of defense to contribute to elite ’16 game’ basketball.

Of course, no team has exemplified this philosophy more than the prohibitive favorites for this year’s championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder. By compiling a roster full of players who are not only physically capable of executing a variety of defensive roles, but can simultaneously diagnose complex rotations, the Thunder have architected a defense with a singular identity amongst the NBA elite. Similar to San Diego State, the Thunder have no issues helping off of shooters, switching early and often, varying ballscreen coverages, and breaking with conventional defensive principles like helping off the ball-side corner.

While the other participant in this year’s NBA Finals doesn’t play as frenetic a defensive scheme, the Indiana Pacers mirror Oklahoma City in their utilization of early pick-up points in order to extend their pressure and convert a perceived weakness, their size, into a strength.

This kind of defense, which is becoming more and more commonplace, is where both Edgecombe and Byrd should thrive. Both have routinely shown their chops in each ‘phase’ of defense. Role notwithstanding, both were exemplary as point-of-attack defenders.

As previously discussed, SDSU’s scheme gave Byrd carte blanche to trust his instincts and range as a help defender, to consistently great results. Byrd’s activity was pervasive in every area, changing the geometry of the court by altering drive angles as a nail-defender…

…and keeping his team’s defense out of rotation with his sticky screen navigation.

Edgecombe’s deployment wasn’t nearly as fluid as Byrd’s, as Baylor played significantly more zone defense than SDSU (Baylor finished in the 91st percentile in zone frequency), making their defensive identity this season much more conservative. Coming into this season as the 234th-ranked team in average height per KenPom, Baylor didn’t have the luxury of rangy defenders to execute longer, more exotic rotations, so their prerogative was to stay out of rotation entirely and maintain shell integrity. This confined Edgecombe to playing a much more static role than Byrd. Even with a more parochial role, Edgecombe’s hand speed and lateral quickness mirroring players on the perimeter shone.

The instances of cognitive athleticism Byrd and Edgecombe show in the clips above are what make them especially suited for modern defenses. Oklahoma City has become the blueprint by acquiring players with traditionally valued athletic traits, decision making, and reaction times to dial their defensive aggression to the point where they are dictating terms of play to the offense. Recently, a major shift in NFL defenses was made when teams realized offenses struggled playing against 2-high safety alignments, where big-play opportunities were limited and offenses would have to slowly matriculate the ball down the field. I do not find the recent schematic changes made by the OKC Thunder all that different. The Thunder defense, by swarming to the ball and congesting driving lanes, have turned the long-held ‘drive and kick’ logic on its head. Similar to San Diego State, OKC concedes a high volume of 3PA defensively, especially relative to contemporary elite defenses. However, this is by design, by selling out on drives and forcing the ball to travel east-west versus north-south, both teams force longer possessions. In Oklahoma City’s case, the number of defensive playmakers they roster makes each drive by the opponent a tenuous proposition. When a team rosters so many chaos agents on defense, there’s the opportunity cost assumed with each successive drive, that the chance of the driver committing a turnover increases.

The emphasis on turnover generation in convergence with the break from traditional defensive philosophies resulted in NBA defense being ‘up’ this year, with drive volume, secondary assists (an assist made without the passer dribbling before the assist), and offensive rating all declining. While I understand this is a somewhat strained assumption, especially on such a small sample, I truly believe the sustained intensity and creativity we’re seeing in defenses is responsible for this phenomenon.

In SDSU’s case, Miles Byrd was disruptive enough on his own to mimic this effect on opposing offenses. By covering large swaths of ground and making multiple efforts after the initial rotation, Byrd was largely responsible for preventing flow to build within an offense.

By now I am probably starting to sound like a broken record with the continued use of terms like ‘ground-coverage’ and ‘event creation’, but it truly can’t be overstated how essential this is becoming as we transition into what has been aptly termed ‘The Weakest Link Era’ (a phrase coined by the inimitable Owen Phillips). So far, I’ve outlined the kind of player required to play this work-intensive style of defense, but the fact of the matter is that to play this way throughout the regular season and playoffs, you need MORE of this kind of player.

NBA basketball has never been more physically demanding, so it follows that to play a style hinged on range and effort, you’ll need a rotating cast of players to complement your core group. In Oklahoma City’s case, their depth is not only complementary, but ameliorates the weaknesses of many players in their rotation. So many members of the Thunder either currently possess or were at an earlier point designated as half-court deficient players; however, their greatest strength defensively allows them to play in the game states most conducive to efficient offense.

This applies to Miles Byrd and VJ Edgecombe because, irrespective of their offensive limitations, their penchant for creating turnovers will greatly augment the offense of a team, especially one already rostering players with similar defensive talents. The effect both Byrd and Edgecombe had on their respective teams’ transition numbers is instructive as to their value-add offensively.

In Byrd’s case, these transition numbers are especially notable: this is how a player shooting 38% from the field becomes the most impactful player to his team’s offense. San Diego State’s rim rate went from 122nd in the country with Byrd on the court to 293rd with him off. Without Byrd providing a spark in transition, the Aztecs were incapable of generating quality rim attempts in the half-court.

Conclusion

As it currently stands, the NBA is in a transitionary period. Slowly but surely, fans, analysts, and teams alike are acknowledging this era is a far departure from the star-centric league most of us grew to know and love. Now, as depth and flexibility become the focus, and while salary cap restrictions are more punitive than ever, it is paramount that teams get the most out of whatever draft capital they possess to maintain a standard of competitiveness. Otherwise, teams will routinely subject themselves to the whims of the ever-temperamental lottery gods (my condolences go out to fans of the Wizards, Jazz, and Pelicans alike). As I’ve mentioned repeatedly, Miles Byrd and VJ Edgecombe are far from perfect prospects, for as much as I’ve lauded their defensive acumen, even in this area their physical strength could become a significant obstacle which prevents them from being All-Defense caliber performers.

In Edgecombe’s case in particular, I would be surprised if he ended up returning top-4 value, and personally have him ranked 7th at the time of writing. I see VJ developing in a way where he could disappoint relative to expectations on his rookie contract. However, the style both players allow you to play, and the confidence I have in the depth they will provide, anchors my belief that both players have productive NBA careers ahead of them.

The post Contextualizing Production: VJ Edgecombe and Miles Byrd appeared first on Swish Theory.

Listed at 6’10”, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Freshman, 18.9 on draft day

Ace Bailey is a dynamo, a blistering midrange scorer where he shot 46% with only 27% of his makes assisted.

Much of the damage was done on midrange pull-ups: he was 40 for 110 there (36%). His very high volume of 3.7 midrange pullup attempts per game places him 32nd in the country as an 18-year-old, exceeding the figures of teammate and presumptive #2 pick Dylan Harper who ranked 235th and shot only 28%. Cooper Flagg also took about half the midrange pullup attempts per game of Ace, and similarly shot a decent bit worse than him there at 33%.

In the first clip above, one of my favorites of the cycle, seen from a better angle, Ace goes from this positioning:

To this tiptoeing the sideline:

Then gathering from his low stance to rise and fire over the help:

I harp on small space coordination for a reason: it is one of the traits I identified as characteristic of all the NBA’s recent greatest improvers (players like Pascal Siakam and Devin Booker). I wrote the following: “On offense, small space coordination not only means being nimble enough to create an initial advantage, but, arguably more important, the ability to dance through traffic. We return to a similar concept as the previous sections – the ability to finish a play.”

Small space coordination leads to improvement because it gets you reps others cannot receive. It opens up creative pathways to score and allows you to pick your spots more accurately. Ace Bailey, with his nimble footwork, will be able to experiment with scoring techniques others could only imagine.

In the midrange one has to not only deal with their immediate defender but some level of help as well. This dual focus makes small space coordination all the more important, squeezing through gaps closing in on two sides. This is not like three point shooting where shooting over a closeout rules supreme.

What else does Ace exhibit in his midrange game? Most notable, fluidity and creativity. Take as another example from the above highlight reel his midrange make against Kennesaw State.

Ace gathers with a pro hop, attacking at an oblique angle to the basket from the wing to the paint:

But instead of rising up out of this gather, he expertly ducks and turns back the direction he came:

This leaves the defender completely in the dust where he now has a fairly uncontested turnaround.

If you put all of the shotmakers of Ace’s ilk in this situation, it is highly unlikely anyone else would have come up with the same solution. For someone broadly considered with worse feel for the game than his peers (as shown by his 0.6 assist to turnover ratio), Ace has plenty of moments of genius in a pinch.

This is to speak nothing of his actual shooting form. That analysis is more subjective, but still worthwhile. Bailey’s strength comes from his ability to keep his form regardless of the angle he’s firing from, working well with his proclivity for quick fadeaways.

Just look at that follow through and holding of pose in spite of his lower body being angled off to his left.

Finally, Ace is great at simply throwing it up there. He was elite with both floaters (14 for 23, 61%) and barely missed any of the few hooks he attempted (7 for 9, 78%). The fact that he is able to guide the ball to the rim from unstructured shooting forms is a great sign for his touch. Check out the final minute of the highlight reel above for some examples, in addition to this impressive make.

Bailey has all the tools as a midrange shotmaker: the height and speedy and high release to get his shot off with ease. The creativity to find unusual finishing patterns. The touch from any kind of angle. Expect him to be shooting through narrow midrange windows his whole career, handle pending.

#2: Tre Johnson

Listed at 6’6”, Texas Longhorns, Freshman, 19.3 on draft day

Tre Johnson is the first 2x superlative winner in this series after being our #1 three point prospect.

His shooting form once again stands out, as does his versatility of set up.

The makes in the above video display finishes in the following manners:

• Drift forward left
• Fade back right
• Quick stop moving right
• Spin fade right
• Drift forward right
• Up and under floater
• Up and under floater
• Quick stop floater

Johnson is particularly adept at drifting just as much as necessary to counterbalance his forward momentum, often slowing just in time as he rises up.

This mixes well with his stutter rip tendency / ability, creating the seam needed to hit with a quick burst, then counterbalanced after a single hard dribble.

Statistically, Tre was a better pull-up three point shooter (at 38%) than pull-up two point shooter (36%) on equally heavy volume at just under 100 attempts each. I attribute much of the worse two point shooting to variance, as the technique is there, but he does force some difficult shots to suppress the efficiency.

With Johnson’s ability to push for difficult attempts, it can be easy to write him off as low feel. Indeed, I do have a concern there (it was especially difficult to see him repeatedly wave for the ball at 0:25 above), especially given his upright driving nature. But, moreso than Bailey, Johnson has so many tools in his repertoire it would be impossible to get here without study and dedication.

I am particularly impressed by Johnson’s ability to pair a midrange fadeaway with an up-and-under floater. You have to leap to contest the 6’6” Johnson’s attempt (he shot 50% in the post), leaving you vulnerable to a fake and pivot forward. His touch does the rest of the work – Johnson shot 23 for 55 on floaters.

While I remain very pessimistic on Johnson’s defensive ability, particularly his poor rebounding, his nuclear scoring ability seems likely to translate in some form. He has too many weapons at his disposal, with balance and technique providing the base. His ability to both quickly organize off of movement and finish with just the right drift can make up for his lack of separation when he hangs onto the ball for longer. The habits may need some refining, and the on-court product might be rough at first, but Johnson remains a compelling lottery bet regardless.

#3: Tahaad Pettiford

Listed at 6’1”, Auburn Tigers, Freshman, 19.9 on draft day

Shooting 43% with Auburn on 40 pull-up twos and, more importantly, 52% on 35 floaters, Pettiford was an easy third option here. Evident in the tape is his consistent ability to not only separate off the dribble, but flow perfectly into his pull-up following these dramatic moves.

The first clip above displays this as well as any. Tahaad pulls off a two-step step-back and knocks it down clean. This reveals not only great balance but precision of footwork.

Just as important, Pettiford has an extra quick release, rising off the ground in an instant. You could call Pettiford’s ability to adapt to his smaller stature a cauterized wound – a consistent physical deficit that you have learned to overcome in a way where it’s no longer harmful. Think of Alperen Sengun becoming a plus defender despite his lack of foot speed, or Pettiford’s high-arching floaters. Cauterizing one’s wound most often requires a high degree of both adaptability and creativity.

Pettiford is comfortable pulling up from both directions, and looks about as adept with right hand floaters as his dominant left. The road is uphill for guards of Pettiford’s size – we are likely to find his 6’1” listing as generous – but his cauterized wound of size is compensated by an elite adaptability of shooting. Pettiford is worse at the rim than he is on floaters, but is likely to be operating much more outside of the paint anyways. There is more space out there for him to grab in a flurry of footwork.

While I generally shy away from small guards who are highly likely to be -1 or worse per 100 possessions on defense, Pettiford is still worth a first round flyer due to his ability to work between the paint and three point line and pass outside in. His assist rate of 23% is unusually high for players at his level of shotmaking, where only 11% of his midrange makes were assisted. Compare that to Ace Bailey at 27%, Tre Johnson at 18% or Tyler Herro at 21%. There’s a chance Pettiford can make the poor defense worth it, especially as a bench sparkplug.

Value Analysis

Midrange scoring is fairly obviously less important than three point shooting, but it is a mistake to either shrug it off as a viable weapon to keep defenses honest or assume a player’s skillset or ability is basically the same as the three. It is very difficult to create plus efficiency offense from midrange, with the highest volume midrange shooters averaging around 0.8 to 1.05 points per shot. But not all shots are created the same, and the midrange can be a fantastic counter for the elite of the elite who can hit the majority of open midrange looks. If you have to be covered in midrange as aggressively as at the rim or from three, it can pinch in or disorganize the defense in a similar manner.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Superlatives: Midrange Scorers appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Utah Jazz – Cooper Flagg, Duke

If you can believe it, I came away from my most recent Duke watch even higher on Cooper Flagg. “There is an easy case to be made for Flagg ending up a consistent top 5 player” is what I wrote in my Flagg scouting report from January, and that may have been an undersell. While he is not perfect – namely his rim efficiency drops against good teams – Flagg’s advancement as an on-ball creator and overall scorer throughout the season only increases his primary odds. He quickened his release in a more stable way, figured out how to hunt short midrange looks and pass succinctly out of those drives. Considering his wiring as a problem-solver with a second-to-none motor, layered on top of an excellent existing skillset at age 18, Flagg may have MVP upside if things click.

Matt Powers

2. Washington Wizards – Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper arrived on Rutgers campus this fall with much fanfare, with the expectations that himself and fellow 5-star recruit Ace Bailey would lead Rutgers to their first tournament appearance since 2022. While the team fell short of these lofty expectations, Harper turned in one of the more impressive floor-raising seasons of any freshman in recent memory. In spite of a flawed supporting cast, Harper was able to lead Rutgers to a top-40 offense while shouldering the lion’s share of playmaking and scoring responsibilities. Harper suffered an illness induced mid-season swoon, but still managed to finish 70% at the rim on substantial volume while avoiding turnovers on these drives. Harper’s turnover economy should also ease any concerns Wizard’s fans may have of Harper’s ability to scale next to other ballhandlers they may acquire in the future. While some consternation related to Harper’s shooting potential is valid, his ability to consistently shoot off the catch, dating back to his high-school days, serves as further evidence Harper can quickly acclimate to a more complimentary role offensively.

Ahmed Jama

3. Charlotte Hornets – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

At 6’8”, Collin-Murray Boyles is a premier defensive prospect who leverages his feel, hand-eye coordination, and strength on both sides of the court. With a 4.7 BLK% and 2.8 STL% for his college career, Murray Boyles’ ground coverage, length, and feel enable him to consistently force possessions to end, something that the Hornets greatly need. It isn’t just the event creation; he’s a fantastic defensive rebounder, where he posted a 21.3 DREB% over his two years at South Carolina.

On offense, Collin-Murray Boyles can act as a face-up scorer, roller, and elite playmaker as a passer, where he often makes layered reads on the short-roll and out of the post. His defensive value gives him a positive intersection of skills that would allow him to boost Charlotte’s transition offense (worst in the league in efficiency and 6th lowest in volume), acting as a passing outlet and downhill scorer off of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds. With large creators that have shooting gravity like Lamelo Ball and Brandon Miller, Collin Murray Boyles’ shooting issues would be insulated to a degree, and he would get them better shots through effective screen assists and high-leverage passing. Having a player like Murray-Boyles operate in the short-roll and play out of DHOs would take the Hornets’ offense to another tier, especially since he would have gravity as a scorer both with his face-up game and downhill pressure.

Murray-Boyles is the best player available to me due to his tremendous defensive value, collegiate production for an underclassman, and high degree of feel relative to his age, but it’s his synergistic fit with the Hornets that will draw out the best of his strengths that makes me excited to draft him at this slot.

Roshan Potluri

4. New Orleans Pelicans – VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe is an undeniable athlete with a steep development curve. Edgecombe is a blur in the open floor with a smooth jumper off the catch and a tenacious defensive mindset. His ability to create buckets off the bounce was on full display playing for the Bahamas Men’s International Team this past summer. While that creation equity did not translate directly to the college level, his growth as a ball handler and athletic upside gives plenty of reason for hope. He shouldn’t be asked to do too much too soon in New Orleans with the existing talent on the roster, and his defensive impact and open court ferocity should fit right in.

Tyler Wilson

5. Philadelphia Sixers – Noa Essengue, ULM

At pick 5, Noa Essengue would be a tremendous fit with the Philadelphia 76ers while taking the best prospect available. Essengue dominated the German BBL as a teenager for Ratiopharm Ulm, overwhelming teams on both sides of the floor with his size, length, and ground-coverage, enabling him to post a 61.8 TS%, 13.4 TOTAL REB%, 0.98 A/TO, above 2 BLK%, and 2 STL%. Even as the second youngest prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft, he was able to post a 17.9 PER in a competitive professional league. For the same reasons that he was productive in the BBL, he can provide value on his rookie deal on the 76ers while being an appealing upside bet for the team due to his intersection of measurables, coordination, feel, and touch. On offense, Noa Essengue is a legitimate threat in transition and can provide value as a vertical threat and off-the-catch driver. Even with his sinewy frame, he applies immense physicality downhill, which shows up on the stat sheet in his bonkers 72 FTR. Essengue’s 3-point shot is still a work in progress, but he’s always had touch, and there has been real growth over the years in his mechanics and energy transfer.

Essengue is also a very versatile defender, stifling opponents with his lateral agility and length at the POA, nail, and backline. The combination of production for age, defensive versatility, outlier tools (9’3.25 standing reach at 6’ 10), feel, and touch makes him an intriguing upside bet in the top five.

Roshan Potluri

6. Brooklyn Nets – Ace Bailey, Rutgers

In the midst of a team-building crossroads, Brooklyn goes for an upside star swing on forward Ace Bailey of Rutgers. The 6’10 Bailey has solid physical tools that he displays on both ends, but really pops offensively with his dazzling scoring ability, including a tantalizing pull-up shot-making package, particularly in the midrange, where he has the ability to rise and fire over the top of defenders with seeming ease. In isolation, Ace is, pardon the pun, an “ace” in the department, as he is relatively unbothered by defenders once he gets to his preferred spots, and is already very adept at attempting-and converting-shots that would be deemed extremely difficult by most. He is also a player who can get hot in a hurry, and when he is in a rhythm, is a tough cover for many defenders, nearly regardless of size. Defensively, Bailey competes and makes the most of his length to bother opposing players, and his effort shines through on that end pretty consistently. His defensive awareness off the ball could improve, but for the “offensive finisher” archetype, he is much more of a two-way player. Overall, as a prospect Bailey’s ceiling is very high. There is a lot of room for growth with his handle and passing to fully realize his complete creation potential, and his offensive awareness regarding what constitutes a good shot could use some extensive refining, but as it stands right now, Bailey will be able to make an immediate impact on a young Nets team that is trying to find its way.

Corban Ford

7. Toronto Raptors – Khaman Maluach, Duke

Masai tends to prefer length with developable ball skills in his draft prospects, and Maluach leaves nothing to be desired when it comes to measurables. Standing 7’2” with a 7’5” wingspan and 9’8” standing reach, Khaman can touch the rim without jumping. Maluach has Olympic experience with the South Sudan team, and is coming off a sensational freshman season on a dominant Duke team. Khaman brings a stabilizing presence down low with one of the highest floors in the draft as a rim-roller; no prospect was as efficient of a lob threat rim-finisher as Khaman. Maluach flashes shooting touch on tough shots when given opportunity and brings great defensive intensity, footwork, and hands on both side of the floor. This move could help build the front court of the future alongside Scottie Barnes with another defensive anchor and a rim roller option to toss lobs to in P&R.

Ryan Kaminski

8. San Antonio Spurs – Kon Knueppel, Duke

Kon Knueppel’s jumper is about as fundamentally gorgeous as they come. On a loaded Duke roster Kon thrived hunting his shot off ball, hitting over 40% of his threes on over 10 attempts per 100 possessions. Knueppel is not a bouncy athlete, but is tough as nails with a strong lower half that allows for more positional versatility than at first glance. San Antonio desperately needs shooting to surround the Fox/Wemby pick and roll, and Kon is far and away the best possible fit in this class. Playing off of that gravity should allow for Kon to make an immediate impact and allow for a longer time horizon in the development of his off the bounce creation.

Tyler Wilson

9. Houston Rockets – Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

There’s a strong chance Houston trades this pick in real life, but for the purposes of this mock draft, they’ll be happy to add a creator like Fears with potential to remedy many of their offensive issues. Fears’s unique blend of burst, handling skill and shooting touch makes him a genuine primary handler bet, something the Rockets desperately need. Houston has the defensive infrastructure to help minimize his weaknesses on that end.

Ben Pfeifer

10. Portland Trailblazers – Derik Queen, Maryland

Queen isn’t a perfectly snug fit in Portland, but the Blazers couldn’t pass on the clear best player available left on the board. Elite movement skills, handling and touch help Queen dominate as an advantage creator with the feel and mobility to project more passing and defensive growth. Adding another shaky outside shooter will present some challenges, but Queen’s star ceiling is worth tinkering around.

Ben Pfeifer

11. Dallas Mavericks – Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

After parting with their franchise centerpiece and losing star Kyrie Irving for nearly the entirety of next season, the Dallas Mavericks fill a desperate playmaking need with the selection of Kasparas Jakucionis out of Illinois. The broad-framed, 6’6 guard has great positional size to go along with superb floor-mapping skill, and he makes the most of these tools along with his impeccable footwork to dictate the game at his own pace, stymying defenders while creating opportunities for his teammates. As a scorer, Jakucionis is adept playing out of the pick and roll, getting to the lane and finishing with touch and craft. His frame comes into play here as well, as he is able to seek out contact and still convert, and he generates free throw attempts in bunches. As a shooter, his form is solid and looks sound overall, even if the three point shooting numbers stand to improve overall. Defensively, Jakucionis is proficient, especially with his physical tools, where his quick feet and prodding hands help him hold up on most assignments. He can be prone to blow-bys by quicker players, and the physicality he brings on the offensive end isn’t quite the same on the defensive side, but he is by no means a liability on that end. All in all, Kasparas Jakucionis’ playmaking, shooting upside, and overall potential is a great fit on a Dallas team that needs to balance immediate contributions alongside future promise.

Corban Ford

12. Chicago Bulls – Tre Johnson, Texas

The Chicago Bulls should consider drafting Tre Johnson with the 12th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft due to his elite scoring ability and potential to address their need for a dynamic offensive guard. At 6’6” with a 7’0” wingspan, Johnson, a Texas freshman, led the SEC in scoring with 19.9 points per game, showcasing his three-level scoring prowess, including 39.2% three-point shooting and crafty footwork reminiscent of Devin Booker. His ability to create shots off the dribble, in isolation 81% of his 97-rim attempts were unassisted and he shot 59% on those, and off screens makes him a potential go-to scorer for a Bulls team transitioning to a youth-focused rebuild after trading Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. While his shot selection and defensive consistency need refinement, his size, high basketball IQ, and playmaking flashes (second on Texas in assists) suggest he can develop into a versatile two-way wing. With Nikola Vucevic’s future uncertain and a need for a franchise cornerstone, Johnson’s upside as a high-volume scorer makes him a strong fit at pick 12, especially in a draft with a perceived drop-off after the top four.

Larry Golden

13. Atlanta Hawks – Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

The Atlanta Hawks are in desperate need of an interior presence, not only to shore up their rim-protection, but to provide Trae Young a release valve. The lack of interior size and a viable finisher has restricted Trae’s potency as a scorer and limited Atlanta’s offense. Ryan Kalkbrenner has been one of the most effective and prolific interior scorers in the collegiate ranks over the past few years, finishing just under 70% at the rim on over 1300 career attempts. Kalkbrenner’s offensive value isn’t limited to his presence around the rim, Kalkbrenner’s punishing screens have been the bedrock in many ways for Creighton’s motion-heavy offense. As much of a boon as Kalkbrenner’s offensive capabilities have been, there is perhaps no area where his impact is more acutely felt than the defensive end. Creighton’s personnel outside of Kalkbrenner consists of offensively slanted players, placing immense pressure on Kalkbrenner to not only alter shots around the rim but suppress opponent’s rim attempts entirely. This is an objective Kalkbrenner has carried out year in and year out during his tenure at Creighton. And while Kalkbrenner’s raw block numbers and block rate are particularly eye-popping for a rim-protector, in each of the past 3 seasons Creighton has allowed less shots at the rim on lower efficiency with Kalkbrenner on the court versus off-court. The clear pathways for Kalkbrenner to be a positive player on both ends of the court make him a clear cut top-20 player, with a skillset tailormade to help the Atlanta Hawks immediately.

Ahmed Jama

14. San Antonio Spurs – Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Jase Richardson is a double dip on shotmaking for San Antonio here in the late lottery. A French connection (Penda, Essengue) is intriguing here if available, but with the arrival of Fox, ascendance of Stephon Castle, and the organizational commitment to Jeremy Sochan there is no greater long term need for this team than shooting the basketball. Richardson posted a 55/41/84 shooting split while canning over 40% of his mid range jumpers. He’s a great shooter both on and off the ball, plays tough defense and has intriguing upside as a pick and roll ball handler. Richardson is a skeleton key for the Spurs’ backcourt, fitting seamlessly with just about any lineup construction newly minted head coach Mitch Johnson decides to throw out there.

Tyler Wilson

15. Oklahoma City Thunder – Carter Bryant, Arizona

Carter Bryant displayed an advanced application of tools, volume shooting, and baseline feel as a 19-year-old last season. At 6-foot-8 and 225 lbs with a 7-foot wingspan, he already has an NBA-ready frame and utilized it to produce a 5.8% block rate and 2.8% steal rate, showcasing legitimate point-of-attack utility and secondary rim protection. On the other end, he shot 37% from three on a massive 59 three-point rate, finished 71% of his rim attempts, and dunked 17 times, building out the perfect playfinishing profile. 69.5% on 59 free throws is a slightly worrying shooting indicator, but 88% on 58 free throws over a two-year EYBL sample suggests this is more of a sample size issue. While Bryant’s usage and self-creation rates suffered from scaling down at Arizona, both of those marks were much higher in EYBL, potentially hinting at some latent creation value. On an Oklahoma City Thunder team that emphasizes ball skills, that would be put to the test, but he fits perfectly within their defensive playmaking, rim protection from all positions, and volume shooting.

Maurya Kumpatla

16. Orlando Magic – Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

Ryan Kaminski

17. Minnesota Timberwolves – Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was an easy pick for me here. I have him ranked a fair bit higher. I believe he has some untapped potential on offense, but generally he brings the type of quick decisionmaking that the Wolves need structurally to make their front-court work. He’s a nice connective piece with upside which makes him an easy pick here.

Joe Hulbert

18. Washington Wizards – Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Adou Thiero is a high volume, punishing driver with ridiculous transition scoring dominance, paired with long arms and elite run/jump athleticism. By all accounts, he is the most functional athlete in this draft class. Despite questionable shooting upside, Adou’s reaction time on defense is notable, and he should emerge as one of the league’s best defenders somewhat quickly. His strong applied physicality, defensive event maxxing, and reasonable 12% assist rate/1 A:TO indicate some semblance of latent feel, which is uncommon for wings of Adou’s athletic caliber. Washington zags from its contemporaneous strategy of targeting high-risk teenagers and takes a young junior that will set the tone for the Wizards’ revamped defense.

Avinash Chauhan

19. Brooklyn Nets – Asa Newell, Georgia

For a team currently bereft of high-end talent or foundational prospects, the Brooklyn Nets should prioritize acquiring young, malleable pieces who can accentuate the skillset of whatever star they eventually bring into the fold. Asa Newell brings a swiss army knife skillset to whatever frontcourt he joins. Newell made major strides this past season as a shooter, elevating his free-throw percentage by over 20 percentage points, and showing softer touch around the basket than he had at any point of his high-school tenure with a vaunted Montverde Academy. Newell finished 13th in the country in Offensive Box Plus-Minus, and was second amongst freshmen. Despite his subpar 3-point efficiency and playmaking numbers, Newell’s effectiveness as an interior scorer and offensive rebounder should ease his transition to the NBA and make him one of the more reliable bets in this range of the draft

Ahmed Jama

20. Miami Heat – Kam Jones, Marquette

This pick mostly leans into the type of thing Miami would do, which I don’t want to be seen entirely as a negative. Kam Jones drastically improved his playmaking this year, it was probably the biggest skill increase in the entire class. This increases his upside. I have concerns about the free throw rate, but Jones is the type of guard the Heat have targeted for the last decade, a slasher who knows how to play the game in the half-court.

Joe Hulbert

21. Utah Jazz – Noah Penda, Le Mans

Over the last two seasons, Noah Penda has hovered around 8% OREB, 16% assist, 4% block, and 3% steal, with 1.6 A:TO and 0.4 FTR. The only high major players to even hit career 7o/15a/3b/2.5s/1.5 a:to are Otto Porter Jr. and Draymond Green. Enough said. Penda is a large bodied driver with legit handling ability, and he’s made real strides as a shooter. He projects as a high feel, two-way connector with as good of a shot as any to land on a few All-Defense teams. Despite the usage of connector as a sort of euphemism, this sort of oreb/assist/stock wing with legit high end feel doesn’t come along every draft. This is exactly the sort of low friction, high EV mold that the Jazz should be looking to target in the middle of the first round.

Avinash Chauhan

22. Atlanta Hawks – Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

The Atlanta Hawks get a lottery-caliber big/forward at pick 22 with Thomas Sorber. While Thomas Sorber played more as a center for Georgetown his freshman season, he’s got the processing, touch, coordination, and mobility to scale down as a forward. He has his limitations as a ground-bound player, impacting his rim finishing and causing him to become more creative in finding finishing angles. However, his fundamentals and his ability to carve space with his body are quite advanced for a freshman, which enabled him to finish 65% of his non-dunk rim attempts despite the vertical challenges for his size. He does this by using his body to create highway screens or to seal and get into post position (70% PPP percentile in post-ups). Although he shot a paltry 16.2% on threes, I have confidence he can become a catch-and-shoot threat on his rookie scale deal due to his comfort with jumpers inside the arc, 72.4% from the FT line, and his lack of hesitancy to take open threes. Sorber is also a fantastic defender who can protect the rim to a high degree (opposing team’s rim FG% falls by 14% with Sorber on the floor and 7.6 BLK%) while also being able to switch in space (2.7 STL%).

For these reasons, Sorber is optimized more as a forward. Playing as a forward and his fit with the Hawks as a short-roll passer, positive rebounder, defender, and play finisher gives me optimism that Sorber would be a tremendous match for the Hawks.

Roshan Potluri

23. Indiana Pacers – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

The Pacers can always use more quality wing play and Clifford brings that. He’s improved his offensive skillset over the years, diversifying his attack and adding new skills to his box of tools. He’ll add much needed size and defensive prowess to Indiana’s perimeter defense as well.

Ben Pfeifer

24. Oklahoma City Thunder – Miles Byrd, San Diego State

The Thunder net their second wing of the draft in Miles Byrd, who stands at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan. Byrd was one of the best wing defenders in college basketball last season, applying his length to produce a 4.9% block rate and 4.3% steal rate while grading out as the best defender on a top-20 defense. Alongside his high steal rate, his high feel is evidenced by an 18.5% assist rate and 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, rounding him out as a quintessential “Presti-player”. While his shot hasn’t come around yet (30% 3PT), high volume (12 attempts per 100 possessions and 57 three-point rate), great touch (83% FT), and impressive midrange shotmaking (38% on non-rim 2s) at a true sophomore age promise three-point shooting down the line. The main issue lies in his closeout attacking, where his handle easily clears the threshold but terrible finishing (55%) crushes any potential there and limits his overall offensive ceiling.

Maurya Kumpatla

25. Orlando Magic – Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

Ryan Kaminski

26. Brooklyn Nets – Ben Saraf, ULM

Saraf is a downhill menace at 6’5” who can apply both rim pressure (6.3 rim attempts per 36 minutes) and midrange pressure (3.8 pull-up twos per 36 minutes) while being one of the best distributors in class. Saraf looks like an ideal back up point guard in waiting, with outside shooting concerns holding back his starter likelihood. But productivity across the court – his 4% offensive rebound rate, 2.7% steal rate and 1.3% block rate are all strong for a guard – signal he knows how to play. A proven contributor at only recently turned 19 for the second-place team in the highly competitive German league.

Matt Powers

27. Brooklyn Nets – Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Another up-and-coming bet from the European leagues, Markovic can stretch the floor to complement Saraf’s probing. At 6’11” with a pristine shooting form, Markovic cashed 40% of his catch and shoot three point attempts. That’s bankable at the next level, especially for a Brooklyn Nets team that was in the 97th percentile for catch and shoot frequency. Markovic has questionable ball skills, a good passer but poor decisionmaker at this current stage. But it is encouraging how open he is to trying things: while the creation outcome is unlikely, we cannot rule it out. His primary defensive contribution will be rebounding, at a 22% rate this season, and general effort, hampered by a mere +1 wingspan. The Nets have time to let young players experiment, and Markovic has as interesting of a foundation as anyone left on the board.

Matt Powers

28. Boston Celtics – Nate Bittle, Oregon

Nate Bittle is 7 feet tall with a reported 7’5 WS, he can shoot threes, and he was named to the Big Ten’s All-Defense team. 7 footers who make assists more than turnovers with non-terrible steal rates are rare enough, but I’ll save you the querying: there has never been a single 7-foot prospect who rebounds, blocks, avoids turnovers, and shoots the way Bittle does. The league is built on outliers!

Sure, this phrase is often weaponized as copium for some iteration of a highly unaesthetic, high-friction archetype that hemorrhages points through either 3 or D. But in this case, a 7 footer with these extreme strengths projects to be an incredibly low-friction bet that should be able to contribute regardless of context. It seriously doesn’t take much imagination to project Bittle’s offensive viability, especially on a team like the Celtics who have personnel (two of the league’s best 7 foot+ shooters in Luke Kornet and Kristaps Porzingis) and schematic precedent to maximize Bittle’s goodness.

Avinash Chauhan

29. Phoenix Suns – Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Phoenix desperately needs good basketball players in any form and Darrion Williams fits that description. Williams presents one of the better dribble-pass-shoot bets on the wing in this class, bringing the on-and-off-ball versatility Phoenix would covet. He’s a sturdy defender as well who would likely be one of the Suns’ better players as a rookie.

Ben Pfeifer

30. Los Angeles Clippers – Alex Condon, Florida

The Los Angeles Clippers should consider drafting Alex Condon in the 2025 NBA Draft due to his versatile skillset and fit with their roster needs. At 6’11”, Condon offers the flexibility to play both power forward and center, addressing the team’s lack of frontcourt depth beyond Ivica Zubac. His modern big-man skills— including low-post scoring, developing three-point shooting, and exceptional playmaking with a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio—complement the Clippers’ need for a dynamic, facilitating big who can operate in dribble handoffs and keep the offense flowing alongside stars like James Harden and Norman Powell. Defensively, his lateral quickness and rim protection potential make him a solid fit for switching schemes, while his high basketball IQ and work ethic suggest he can develop into a reliable rotation player. With the Clippers aiming to bolster their frontcourt for a championship push, Condon’s two-way upside makes him a compelling mid-to-late first-round target.

Larry Golden

31. Minnesota Timberwolves – Sion James, Duke

Joe Hulbert

32. Boston Celtics – Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Larry Golden

33. Charlotte Hornets – Javon Small, West Virginia

Ahmed Jama

34. Charlotte Hornets – Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

Ahmed Jama

35. Philadelphia Sixers – Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Tyler Wilson

36. Brooklyn Nets – Johni Broome, Auburn

Matt Powers

37. Detroit Pistons – Isaiah Evans, Duke

Roshan Potluri

38. San Antonio Spurs – Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Maurya Kumpatla

39. Toronto Raptors – Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Ryan Kaminski

40. Washington Wizards – Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Joe Hulbert

41. Golden State Warriors – Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

Tyler Wilson

42. Sacramento Kings – Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Larry Golden

43. Utah Jazz – Drake Powell, North Carolina

Corban Ford

44. Oklahoma City Thunder – Max Shulga, VCU

Roshan Potluri

45. Chicago Bulls – Will Riley, Illinois

Avinash Chauhan

46. Orlando Magic – Vladislav Goldin, Michigan

Ryan Kaminski

47. Milwaukee Bucks – Koby Brea, Kentucky

Larry Golden

48. Memphis Grizzlies – Egor Demin, BYU

Matt Powers

49. Cleveland Cavaliers – Cedric Coward, Washington State

Maurya Kumpatla

50. New York Knicks – Mark Sears, Alabama

Tyler Wilson

51. Los Angeles Clippers – Tyrese Proctor, Duke

Corban Ford

52. Phoenix Suns – Eric Dixon, Villanova

Avinash Chauhan

53. Utah Jazz – Alex Toohey, Sydney

Larry Golden

54. Indiana Pacers – Jamir Watkins, Florida State

Ben Pfeifer

55. Los Angeles Lakers – Joan Beringer, Olimpija

Roshan Potluri

56. Memphis Grizzlies – Karter Knox, Arkansas

Matt Powers

57. Orlando Magic – Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Ryan Kaminski

58. Cleveland Cavaliers – Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest

Corban Ford

59. Houston Rockets – AK Okereke, Cornell

Maurya Kumpatla

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 3.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

This series will inspect all ten categories by highlighting three standout performers for each trait. My hope is that my process for evaluating this trait will improve with the exercise, inspecting my own criteria, while also recognizing just how rare each trait is.

First up, perhaps the most important category of all: three point shooting.

Note the rankings relate to who will have the most three point success in the NBA more than the most three point talent (eliminating specialists like the incredible shooter Koby Brea).

#1: Tre Johnson

Listed at 6’6”, Texas Longhorns, Freshman, 19.3 on draft day

Tre Johnson’s greatness as a three-point shooter is perhaps the most self-evident of the draft, as it takes only one shot of his to react, “Oh, he can shoot.” The aesthetics are stellar: Johnson has an appropriately wide base, hopping light into the shot before rising up with intention.

Look at how he perfectly squares from a 90-degree gather in one of the clips above:

He perfectly angles his shooting pocket:

And snaps his wrist hard while releasing high:

It is hard to ask for more in a shooting form, with his fluidity especially notable given his 6’6” height.

He meets very high thresholds for outside shooting, statistically. High major freshmen with his level of three point volume and efficiency are rare, as all 6’3” or above NCAA players with his profile have stuck in the NBA.

His flexibility of gather, skilled in footwork, allows him to be successful in all kinds of actions:

• 17 for 31 (55%) on threes running off of screens
• 23 for 52 (44%) on threes in transition
• 12 for 28 (43%) on threes out of pick and roll
• 5 for 12 (42%) off of handoffs

The two lagging in efficiency are spot ups (24 for 71, 34% from three) and isos (7 for 25, 28% from three). He was surprisingly just as efficient on guarded catch and shoot (42%) than unguarded (39%), with the open ones actually dragging down his spot up efficiency. Given his fundamentals and success hitting the difficult ones, I’m not too worried about him figuring out the simple. In fact, he was 44% on unguarded threes in his final high school season.

I have gotten higher on Tre Johnson over this process, as his elite three-point versatility matches his elite three-point efficiency. The isolations are the one concern, as he struggles to create space, but hopefully will represent only a small volume of his NBA looks. His ability to counter when the defense commits in pick-and-roll (39th %ile efficiency, including passes) is also a concern for his overall shotmaking difficulty, but he has the talent and range to overcome it. While that lack of quick burst and the defense hold back his ceiling, his combination of nuclear shooting off of movement and strong passing instincts makes him impossible to pass up in the lottery.

#2: Walter Clayton Jr.

Listed at 6’3”, Florida Gators, Senior, 22.3 on draft day

Walter Clayton Jr.’s appeal is also immediately clear in the tape, but for a different reason: the degree of difficulty. In particular, Clayton Jr. is elite from NBA distance, having to be covered far beyond the NCAA three-point line.

This is a major defensive breakdown:

As is this:

Also obvious from the tape is how comfortably Clayton Jr. gathers both left to right and right to left off of movement or the dribble. His core strength allows him to stay square with torque when rising up in an instant. He is an extremely confident shooter, ensuring he commits to every shot with intent.

Perhaps even at a better level than Johnson, Clayton Jr. can re-square his shoulders rapidly. Because he is smaller but a good leaper, he can spring in any direction to counter-balance his motion. It’s a delight to watch.

Despite what had to be among the most difficult three-point diets in the NCAA, Clayton Jr.’s three-point percentage was very good at 38.6% on 303 attempts, seventh most in the country. He also shot a stellar 87.9% from the line on 481 career free throw attempts. After this past season, there is plenty of evidence that Clayton Jr. is an elite shooter.

Clayton’s core strength and comfortability moving laterally, confidence in his shot all allow him to be successful in a variety of play types. In fact, Clayton was 71st percentile efficiency or better in seven different play types:

• 42% on 45 threes in transition
• 40% on 75 threes spotting up
• 39% on 23 threes off of screens
• 36% on 14 threes in isolation
• 36% on 42 threes off of handoffs
• 35% on 102 threes as pick and roll ball handler

Walter Clayton Jr. is an obvious bet to be a nuclear NBA shooter, due to his ability to pull up quickly from distance as well as off of movement. His resume is excellent, leading a great Florida team through the NCAA tournament. Difficulty means streakiness, but Clayton is on far more often than he is off, and when he is on, he can drive a scoring run single-handedly.

The downsides come elsewhere, namely in his somewhat below-average handle and passing for a 6’3″player, which keeps him from having creation equity. He can sometimes fall asleep on defense (such as in the final moments of the NCAA championship game) but makes up for it with elite recovery tools (displayed in the few moments after, in addition to strong 2.5% steal and 1.8% block rates over his college career).

Because Clayton Jr. is 6’3”, a good leaper and capable of getting threes up with volume like no other in this class, he resembles a first-round pick. Even if the non-shooting traits lag, they are good enough to stay on the floor to allow his shooting to shine.

#3: Kon Knueppel

Listed at 6’7”, Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 19.9 on draft day

Kon Knueppel’s excellence might not be as obvious as that of Clayton Jr. or Johnson. He shines through technique, consistency, and, well, track record.

We have enough data on Knueppel to suggest he is an elite shotmaker. Let’s start with catch and shoot. Knueppel has now had three consecutive seasons of shooting over 40% on catch-and-shoot threes, giving him a career 42% mark on 419 catch-and-shoot looks.

Despite the dip in his form, Knueppel has an otherwise compact motion, easily repeatable. My favorite thing about the form is he “finishes heavy,” that is, exaggerates the end of his form to get extra lift but also gain consistency of motion.

He typically fully lands back on the ground while still holding his follow-through:

This consistency of technique, in addition to a low center of gravity, permits Kon to rise up off the catch even off of movement.

The pull-up figures are iffier, with little success at Duke. But looking at the EYBL statistics and tape gives one much more comfort.

When given more of a green light to let it fly – two pull-ups threes per game in Phenom 16-17U compared to 0.5 at Duke – he looks much more comfortable and flowy off the dribble. In fact, he was capable of shooting out of complex set ups like at the 0:50 mark of his highlight video above.

If Knueppel had been enabled to be an off-the-dribble gunner, I have no doubt his efficiency would have risen at Duke. Knueppel reminds me of Desmond Bane here: Bane has the instinct to put the ball on the floor even just once to induce a defender fly-by. With a similar high feel for picking his spots, I expect Knueppel to do the same with success.

Not too much commentary needed here; Knueppel is among the elite free-throw shooters. Of NCAA players with at least 100 free throw attempts, Knueppel ranked fifth in free throw percentage, the only one in the top ten 6’7″ or above.

Even with the poor pull-up shooting, Knueppel hit some gaudy marks for a high-major freshman. Since 2008, there have been only four other high-major freshmen in his vicinity: Tre Johnson, Ben McLemore, Jared McCain, and Tyler Herro. Kon meets the below thresholds with ease.

I’ve only gotten higher on Kon Knueppel with each subsequent watch. While my initial instinct was to fade him given the athletic limitations (the track record for players who miss most of their dunk attempts is not good), likely not 6’7”. However, his instincts for rotations and how to wall off drives keep him relevant on that end.

A minimum level of defensive contribution is all that is needed for Knueppel’s three point shooting to potentially take over games (not to mention his passing acumen). While not as much of an aesthetic/degree of difficulty play as Tre or Clayton, Knueppel has the track record and eye for technique / when to shoot that gives a high level of faith in his three ball being excellent. With his integration of other skills, draft Kon in the top 10.

Value Analysis

Three point shooting is the most prized ability in the titular “three point era,” and for a reason. Shooting from outside the furthest ring of the defense can be the most reliable way to generate looks. Our three three point shooters are able to do just that, bombing away even with small creases — all three are reliable to get a high volume of attempts in a variety of ways.

Simply, beating three levels of defense (perimeter defenders, help defenders, rim protectors) is the most valuable thing you can do on the court. Especially as three point volume is almost always scalable. If you want more threes, you can have them: the quality of the looks will decline, but it is unlike midrange or rim attempts which require a higher level of passing and/or dribbling to get there. For our three shooters, the area over which you have to cover them with their deep range and quick triggers is massive.

As this series goes on, I will try to note the relative value of each trait, and why. Threes are our first trait, but, from my analysis, also the single most valuable. Next up, we move slightly closer to the basket – the oft-theorized midrange.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Superlatives: Three Point Shooters appeared first on Swish Theory.

This one is a no-brainer. Flagg is a special prospect, capable of instantly changing the fortunes of any team that selects him. Washington is the fortunate one here, landing their future primary initiator and defensive leader. Flagg helps round out their already promising young core, adding a true superstar prospect to the mix.

– Ben Pfeifer

2. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

As a sophomore, Collin Murray-Boyles has boosted both efficiency (82nd percentile to 83rd percentile) and frequency (65th percentile to 70th percentile) as a post-up hub, possesses a burgeoning perimeter isolation game (88th percentile efficiency on 88th percentile frequency), and is a dominant passer in a variety of situations (career 19.8% AST and 1.2 A:TO). With elite offensive production regardless of usage, team context, and opponent difficulty as a young sophomore, Murray-Boyles has all the ingredients of an offensive star. Pair that potential with incredible defensive production, baseline touch, and outlier development indicators galore, and he has endless avenues to impact even if the offensive stardom doesn’t manifest. For a Charlotte team that ranks 29th in offense and 19th in defense, Murray-Boyles brings an integration of both offense and defense that lags behind only Cooper Flagg.

– Maurya Kumpatla

3. Utah Jazz: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper has established himself as one of the clear-cut top prospects in the 2025 class, combining ideal size for a ball-handler with the ability to generate consistent paint touches via advanced footwork and elite body control. He’s had to handle huge creation responsibility on a Rutgers team devoid of much shooting or ball handling to surround him, and has still managed to be efficient (59% TS%) in spite of that. The biggest question/swing skill with Harper is how well he’ll shoot it at the NBA level, but his percentages (35% 3pt, 74% FT) are respectable enough that you have to imagine that he’ll at least be a decent shooter. Even with Isaiah Collier showing promise as a lead ball-handler in his rookie year, Harper is too good of a prospect to pass up at #3.

– AJ Carter

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Pelicans underwent a pseudo youth movement and Jakucionis will only add to it. They’ve needed more high-end playmaking for Zion Williamson’s entire career, making Jakucionis a perfect fit here. His shooting provides a tantalizing ceiling on the ball and will help him space and cut next to Williamson.

– Ben Pfeifer

5. Toronto Raptors: Khaman Maluach, Duke

Khaman Maluach is a monster. With a true shooting percentage over 70, Maluach is one of the most efficient players in his role in the entire country, despite being introduced to the game of basketball later in life. With fewer years of experience, it is fair to expect some growing pains and there certainly have been some this season at Duke. What has impressed me most throughout the year is not Maluach’s freaky athleticism, true center size, overwhelming offensive rebounding or hyper-efficient scoring, it has been the rate at which he has improved throughout the college season. Playing the five in the NBA will take some refining, it is the most difficult (and important) defensive role on the court, and few players walk into the league ready to do so. With Maluach’s physical tools, potential touch and competitiveness he has all the tools to be a true building block for Toronto. It is hard to imagine a more perfect mentor than Jakob Poeltl as he learns the ropes of NBA defense.

– Tyler Wilson

6. Philadelphia 76ers: Asa Newell, Georgia

Asa checks many boxes for this Sixers team, fitting cleanly at the 4 in the starting lineup and providing a reliable backup 5 option behind Embiid. The strengths of Newell’s game complement this team between his pinpoint offensive rebounding, frontcourt defensive versatility, helpside shot blocking, catch-and-shoot 3pt shooting potential, and the ability to attack closeouts with the shot or pumpfake, drive, and post-up hook. Newell slides right into the starting unit without taking touches from the star scorers and will produce as a positionless defender and off-ball play finisher.

– Ryan Kaminski

7. Brooklyn Nets: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe has managed to alleviate many concerns brought about by his early season play by consistently shooting the ball from distance (39.5% from 3 in conference play), while increasing both his volume and efficiency as a driver. Despite Edgecombe’s becoming more heavily featured within the Baylor offense, his defensive effort and production has seldom waned. This effort and production has come even though Edgecombe has been cast in a variety of roles and schemes as Baylor constantly tinkered to compensate for the lack of size in their rotation. The schematic inconsistencies have managed to provide a glimpse of how Edgecombe could be deployed as a ‘utility guard’, an archetype which has recently come into vogue and has in many ways defined the best defenses in the NBA over the past few years. Combining the versatile defensive ability with an increasingly potent offense has made Edgecombe a no-brainer pick at this juncture of the draft.

– Ahmed Jama

8. Chicago Bulls: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

The 6’3 quick guard can score at all levels, threatening teams with his feathery touch, feel, and footwork. At pick #8, Richardson was the perfect player for the Chicago Bulls to add to their young core and build on their halfcourt creation. Jase Richardson can hold up defensively for a small guard while being an extremely role-malleable offensive player. The bet for the Bulls is that Richardson’s shot-making inside the arc continues to evolve and translate further beyond the arc, enabling him to keep up with a higher usage role in the long term. In the short term, the Chicago Bulls play with a high transition frequency under Coach Billy Donovan which is a perfect fit with how effective Richardson is in the open-court.

– Roshan Potluri

9. San Antonio Spurs: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Ace Bailey would be a strong pick for the San Antonio Spurs due to his exceptional shot-making ability and positional size at 6-foot-10, offering a high-ceiling wing who can create his own offense alongside Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. His scoring versatility and length could complement the Spurs’ growing core, adding a dynamic perimeter threat to elevate their attack.

– Larry Golden

10. San Antonio Spurs: Derik Queen, Maryland

Derik Queen brings a positionally unique form of advantage creation as a post-hub passer with off-the-dribble shooting upside. Still, his offensive versatility is paired with limited defensive versatility: he’s at the horrid intersection of poor lateral quickness, poor vertical explosion, and underwhelming center size. There isn’t a better fit for this type of offensively tilted, defensively limited PF/C than alongside Victor Wembanyama, potentially the most transcendent two-way center in NBA history.

– Avinash Chauhan

11. Portland Trailblazers: Noa Essengue, ULM

The Portland Trailblazers get one of the youngest players and higher upside propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft at pick #11. Noa Essengue fits what Portland is building with its group of rangy defenders and strong interior presence. At 6’10, Essengue is a versatile defensive player who can operate out of the point-of-attack, back-line, or general help situations. Offensively, Essengue has been dominant in transition and applying physicality in the half-court for Ulm in the German BBL this season, and that can immediately translate to the NBA. While the shooting and strength are still a work in progress, Essengue has been improving these traits at a drastic rate enabling him to be someone who can attack off the catch consistently during his rookie-scale deal.

– Roshan Potluri

12. Houston Rockets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

While it was tough to pass up Tre Johnson, I liked the idea of Sorber within this group of exciting young players even more. The idea is somewhat like why they brought Steven Adams in, to provide a physical interior presence, good screening and strong passing. Sorber might eventually shoot it, too, with a smooth form and solid free throw and midrange percentages for a big.

– Matt Powers

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Tre Johnson has had one of the most impressive scoring seasons from a high-major freshman in recent memory. Posting a 6.5 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in conference play, second amongst freshmen and only trailing Cooper Flagg, Johnson has ameliorated many concerns of how quickly his game would translate to the most difficult conference in the country. Despite shouldering a massive 27% usage rate, Johnson has managed to adapt and make significant progress both as a facilitator and driver, consistently elevating his rim-rate over the course of the season without detracting from his efficiency. Johnson’s malleability as an offensive player bodes well to his professional career, as his ability to synergize with more interior based scorers will be crucial considering Johnson’s defensive limitations.

– Ahmed Jama

14. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke

For teams looking for shooting on the wing, Kon is one of the premier shotmakers in this year’s draft. He lacks much explosiveness or burst as an athlete, but has strong positional size and is a skilled scorer from every part of the court. Kon is a knockdown shooter off the catch but has more variety to his shotmaking than just that, showing the ability to make pull-ups off the dribble or use his size to carve out space for short jumpers. It remains to be seen how well he’ll be able to survive on defense at the NBA level, but offensively Kon has one of the most translatable skillsets in the draft.

– AJ Carter

15. Orlando Magic: Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

– Ryan Kaminski

16. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

Noah Penda’s integration of length (6-foot-11 wingspan), strength (225 lbs), instincts, and hand-eye coordination have led him to a league-leading blocks total and 2nd-best steals totals as just a 20-year-old in the French Jeep Elite, giving him an argument for best non-big defender in the class. For an Oklahoma City Thunder scheme that’s already historic at forcing turnovers and boasts rim protection from each position, Penda adds even more value. Though he brings shooting and finishing question marks, he’s on a special developmental trajectory as a shooter, and his monster offensive rebounding-assists-stocks integration promises further room for growth.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

The idea of Kyrie Irving mentoring Fears is too appealing to pass up, but Fears is easily my best on the board at this point. Much like why I drafted him to the Nets in our prior mock draft, Fears has some of the best dribble-pass-shoot upside in the class, carrying a heavy burden for Oklahoma at age 18. It’s tough to find primary upside this late, but the Mavs do here.

– Matt Powers

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Bennett Stirtz is one of the best volume pick-and-roll scorers in all of college basketball, fusing pace, a tight handle, and shotmaking from every area on the court to power 87th percentile pick-and-roll ballhandler efficiency on 99th percentile frequency. He pairs this scoring with best-in-the-class feel, blending visual manipulation with a wide range of deliveries to produce a 35% assist rate and engine a top-40 Drake halfcourt offense. All this makes him an underrated creation bet, but a 47% catch-and-shoot jumpshot and tons of driving production give him a strong dribble/pass/shoot wing base. His footspeed on defense in such a role would be worrisome, but his strong feel and hand-eye coordination that leads to defensive playmaking (3.6% steal rate) would fit like a glove in Oklahoma City.

– Maurya Kumpatla

19. Miami Heat: Dailyn Swain, Xavier

At pick #19, the Miami Heat select Dailyn Swain: the young sophomore forward with creative ball-handling and lock-down defense out of Xavier. Standing at 6’8, Swain fits the Heat’s culture of players who play with a motor and a sense of toughness, which exudes itself in how Swain consistently impacts games in the most opportunistic ways. The impact is seen without needing to play on the ball at Xavier – Swain runs the break hard in transition, keeps the ball moving in the halfcourt, and is always hustling on the boards. That energy, with his size and length, translates to the defensive end where he can cover ground well and excel in lock and trail situations. While the defense and feel on the offensive end will keep him on the court early on, the Heat will need to improve Swain’s two-motion jumper for Swain to hit any form of creation upside. However, in the middle of the first round, Swain’s combination of age, size, burst, feel, flexibility, and handling comfort makes him a worthy proposition for a retooling Heat team.

– Roshan Potluri

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

With Mike Conley’s decline Minnesota has a clear need for long-term ball-handling/shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. While 2024 draft pick Rob Dillingham is an obvious candidate to fill a lot of that responsibility in coming years, it wouldn’t hurt to take another swing on a potential creator. Traore has slid down draft boards after being a preseason potential top 5 pick candidate due to a lack of efficiency and consistency, but outside of the lottery it’s hard to find players with more upside than Traore. Despite struggles this season he still has the talent to be a dynamic creator off the dribble if he can improve as a shotmaker and make smarter decisions with the ball.

– AJ Carter

21. Indiana Pacers: Ben Saraf, ULM

Rick Carlisle loves guards, and Saraf gives the Pacers another dribble-drive-pass threat. The three-point shot is poor off the dribble but acceptable off the catch. At a strong 6’5” and still just 18, Saraf has the build and productivity of someone capable of handling bench primary duties. Perhaps the single best passer in the class.

– Matt Powers

22. Brooklyn Nets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kalkbrenner’s brand of mistake-free basketball, characterized by foul and TO avoidance, is inherently low friction, and his sheer size (7’5 WS + 250 lbs) with relative mobility gives him a fairly high floor as a defender.  He’s exhibited NBA-caliber dominance since his sophomore year, and he’s slowly increased his 3P rate while consistently shooting over 70% FT for his college career. With much more room to err and experiment on the rebuilding Nets, Kalk’s collegiate extent of dominance may persist more than one would expect with a typical four-year center.

– Avinash Chauhan

23. Brooklyn Nets: Carter Bryant, Arizona

You don’t see too many bulky, athletic forwards take over half their shots from beyond 3P, but at 6’8, 225 pounds, Carter has a whopping 0.60 3P rate while remaining hyper-efficient inside the arc (14 of his 37 2P makes are dunks). The upside with Carter lies within his pull up game: in interviews, he consistently cites players like Tatum and Paul George as personal exemplars, and his AAU playtype distribution was littered with far too many pullups and PnR BH possessions. While his production and processing (7.6 BPM, 6% block, 3% steal, 1 A:TO) give him a reasonably high floor, it’s Carter’s tantalizing combination of youth, size, and shooting proclivity that could unlock true star upside.

– Avinash Chauhan

24. Atlanta Hawks: Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

This was an easy selection, and I would imagine Atlanta would be pretty stoked to draft someone at 24 who is all but a guaranteed NBA rotation player. McNeeley gets it in more ways than one. He is a surprisingly effective defensive rebounder despite his physical limitations, he makes quick decisions on and off the ball, and (somewhat surprisingly) has shown the ability to handle a larger offensive load than he did in high school playing on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory. McNeeley will present some questions defensively, but he should be able to slide into lineups featuring both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson easily. He’s only hit ~35% of his threes this season, but don’t let that deceive you, McNeeley is one of the premier off-ball weapons in this class.

– Tyler Wilson

25. Washington Wizards: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was by far the best player available, but he’s a logical fit for a Washington team still looking for high-end talent. The Alabama freshman is a quick, shifty guard who pressures the rim and passes at a high level. He could develop into a valuable connector piece for a Wizards team that just added Cooper Flagg.

– Ben Pfeifer

26. Orlando Magic: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

– Ryan Kaminski

27. Brooklyn Nets: Kam Jones, Marquette

Kam Jones would be a strong pick for the Brooklyn Nets due to his proven scoring ability and playmaking skills, averaging over 20 points and 6 assists per game at Marquette, which could bolster their backcourt during a rebuild. His experience as a senior guard, combined with his improved shooting and passing, makes him a ready-made contributor who could thrive in Brooklyn’s system under Jordi Fernández.

– Larry Golden

28. Boston Celtics: Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s

Fleming is a bit of a divisive selection as a lower-usage upperclassman playing in the A10, but at pick #28 the positives are too hard to ignore. He has been massive for St. Joe’s this year, shooting over 70% at the rim and 41% from three. In an era of NBA basketball where efficient shots are valued more than ever, Fleming is an easy bet to score in the most valuable areas of the court. His block, steal and rebounding numbers are all positive and point towards a genuine contributor on the defensive side of the ball as a powerful forward with the ability to play some small-ball five. If Boston truly “needs” anything in the draft, it is cost-controlled production. Fleming should provide real value on his rookie deal as an older prospect with the frame and complementary skillet to produce immediately. 

– Tyler Wilson

29. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford to the Los Angeles Clippers would be great because of his versatility as a 6-foot-6 guard bringing defensive flexibility and rebounding tenacity, addressing the team’s need for depth on the wing alongside stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. His senior-year performance at Colorado State—averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on efficient shooting—shows he could provide immediate contributions as a role player for the Clips.

– Larry Golden

30. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

It is unclear in which direction the Suns want to go, and Ant gives them options. His POA defense is NBA-ready, a thief ready to pounce at any moment. The best player on a top-20 team in the nation as a sophomore, Robinson is able to do important things on the court. He is the team leader in assists who has also shown outside shooting potential with 42% from three, 49% from midrange and 77% from the line splits. Despite being only 6’3”, Ant’s reported 6’7” wingspan makes him more dangerous in passing lanes or snagging the errant offensive board. His 0.78 free throw rate reiterates his level of physicality, NBA ready despite the skinny frame.

– Matt Powers

31. Boston Celtics: Johni Broome, Auburn

32. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

34. Charlotte Hornets: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

35. Detroit Pistons: Paul McNeil, NC State

36. Philadelphia 76ers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

37. Brooklyn Nets: Javon Small, West Virginia

38. Sacramento Kings: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

39. San Antonio Spurs: Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

40. Toronto Raptors: Eric Dixon, Villanova

41. Oklahoma City Thunder: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

42. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin, BYU

43. Orlando Magic: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

44. Golden State Warriors: JoJo Tugler, Houston

45. Chicago Bulls: Max Shulga, VCU

46. Los Angeles Clippers: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

47. Utah Jazz: Alex Toohey, Sydney

48. Washington Wizards: Nate Bittle, Oregon

49. Utah Jazz: Tyrese Proctor, Duke

50. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

52. Indiana Pacers: Alex Condon, Florida

53. Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Evans, Duke

54. Los Angeles Lakers: Curtis Jones, Iowa State

55. New York Knicks: Terrance Arceneaux, Houston

56. Phoenix Suns: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

57. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

58. Houston Rockets: Rocco Zikarsky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Braden Smith, Purdue

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

^Zvonimir #14, listed at 7’2 across from his brother, Tomislav #13, listed at 7’0..

Ivisic’s skills are self-evident in the limited film, with maybe the most prominent one being his handful of quick triggered, no hesitation hoists from deep. The shot is quick, compact and without much use of lower body input. It’s an easy ball, and can be used as an effective option in pick-and-pop situations. One basic issue with the shooting is the volume, although he seemingly could not wait to get his shots up when he saw the floor for the first time. Even when compiling 3-point numbers from what I could find the last couple years, the grand total was still less than a hundred attempts, and same goes for free throw numbers. The eye-test for me says Ivisic is a shooter, but there will just need to be a bigger shooting sample to look at before fully checking that box in pen. But it is not the only skill Ivisic flashes.

Ivisic really captured some sort of magic in his debut, even summoning a wild behind-the-back pass while on-the-move. There are these occasional small glimpses into Ivisic’s vision as a passer, which manifest in highlight connections like that previously mentioned behind-the-back one, or with short-roll dishes to the rim or even more routine ones like in advance passes up the court. But there are also too many instances of poor, nonchalant passing execution and dumbfounding turnovers. Again, like with the shooting, there just isn’t enough film to confirm or deny his true proficiency as a passer, but the duality of questionable decision-making and functional passing upside is noted here. If Ivisic can hone and replicate those flashes as a short-roll and interior passer, it could begin to solidify his case as a pretty complete play-finisher out of the roll.

The skillset doesn’t stop there though, as Ivisic makes good use of footwork in several facets of his offensive game. As a screener, Ivisic is spry to screen continuously throughout a possession, flowing into actions with good pace and quickly diving out of screens. The screens themselves have a layer of physicality, with Ivisic showing that he can take a chunk out of the POA defender, although needs to clean up some of the illegal moving screens. In more conventional rolls to the rim, Ivisic is capable of finishing lobs, with signs of high-level coordination on adjustments for catches, although his vertical is not overwhelming. Ivisic also has nice feel and recognition for when both POA defenders are up on the ball-handler, slipping behind and finding the open space to settle into for the dump-off against the double team. Ivisic recognizes pretty immediately when he is open, and has his hands up as a target right away. And in those short-roll scenarios, Ivisic is generally under control and looking to advance upon the rim with intent to score, where his footwork shows up again as a useful tool. Ivisic does a nice job of utilizing pivots to find better finishing windows and even position himself for more powerful two-handed flushes at the rim. 

While his footwork and handle on short-area moves towards the rim are pretty effective, it is of note though that outside of some brief open-court handling from Ivisic in FIBA u20 that Ivisic’s ball-handling is not too functional. He had instances of issues keeping his dribble secure in tight spaces. That will need to be cleaned up at the very least for DHO actions, but it does not lend itself to Ivisic as any sort of threat to attack from the perimeter outside of on-the-catch with momentum. 

And while he is skilled getting into finishes, Ivisic plays in a more finesse-leaning tilt. As a big, there should be an element of punishing physicality to your game. A post game was non-existent for Ivisic at Kentucky, which is not a huge deal as he translates to the pros since he executes his role as a roller, but it may also indicate a lack of ability to overpower college defenders, as he did have instances of struggling to post up smaller defenders in FIBA u20. It may be that Ivisic naturally leans towards being a more finesse offensive player with occasional forceful dunks when he’s maneuvered into position. 

If Ivisic refines and applies all his strengths in a bigger role next year at Arkansas, then he may become one of the most versatile screener threats in the class on the pop, roll and short-roll.

For context, at Kentucky Ivisic often played alongside two of the most skilled guards in the 2024 Draft class. Arkansas will have an experienced grad-transfer guard in Johnell Davis, along with fellow Wildcat transfer DJ Wagner, and more freshmen guard talent, but they will not be the passers Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard were. Still, Ivisic’s dual threats out of screening actions should help his guards help him. And if Ivisic’s spacing ability is true, it gives Calipari some lineup flexibility with their other frontcourt players.

It is not unreasonable to be buying into Ivisic as an offensive player. But the big question for bigs is on the defensive end. Which defensive frontcourt roles can you fill? 

Ivisic has decent mobility for a 7 footer, but his initial stance on the perimeter is often not nearly low enough or engaged enough, routinely getting blown by right at the line of scrimmage. While Ivisic has some recoverability to make a play at the rim and make up for giving up the angle, NBA guards will have plenty of room in the intermediate area to use that angle to manipulate and handicap that recoverability, especially if the blow-by is occurring immediately way out on the perimeter. Ivisic is not the beefiest plodding center, and he can move fairly well, so the expectation should be placed higher for him guarding on the perimeter. Not asking Ivisic to lock anyone up, but just looking for him to be more competitive in this area and contain the ball better. Though Ivisic has shown great length, quick hands and quick reaction time to block jumpers on the perimeter. 

The lack of perimeter defense at this point for Ivisic hurts the case that he could possibly play some 4. Not only would the on-ball stuff be concerning, the supplementary weakside defense seems largely absent. Ivisic played the 4 for Croatia’s u20 team in 2023, while his brother played the 5, and he was very quiet as a weakside presence, with little-to-no activity coming from that position. The instincts for it just weren’t there. I won’t say this is damning for any case that Ivisic could play the 4 defensively, but in addition to the perimeter woes, it’s close. 

While Ivisic does have height and length that can be disruptive defensively at the rim and the timing of some blocks with his outstretched arms is nice, many instances came without rotating from very far. As a POA drop big, Ivisic’s positioning can be moderate to fair, sometimes losing a half step on a downhill driver just like his perimeter defense, ending up in that vulnerable position behind the ball-handler, but again has the recoverability that he unfortunately seems to rely a little too much on. More film of Ivisic as a defender is needed here to see how he has progressed in his positioning.

Lastly, the rebounding lacked physicality and finding box-outs was not routine, and at times it looked like Ivisic struggled a bit to cleanly end possessions with a rebound. Even in some post defense, Ivisic had a tough time battling for ground and post real estate. As a prospect who has nearly eliminated themselves from the proposition of playing the 4 defensively, Ivisic has a lot to prove as someone who can fulfill a center’s defensive duties in the NBA.

The argument for Ivisic revolves around his offensive versatility as a rolling and spacing threat, which is where he can separate himself from other prospects on that end, but each individual ability is far from concrete at this point. Ivisic will need to truly evolve each skill from a flash to a legitimate weapon. More importantly, at the end of the day a player who is confined to the center position defensively really needs to be a strong defensive anchor. With more minutes, Ivisic should have a chance to showcase growth on the defensive end. I will be looking for a more consistent awareness of the rim, and more physicality overall. 

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Broome is one of the top returning draft prospects coming into the 2024-25 college season. But there is a reason Broome is back at Auburn for a fifth year of college basketball, despite a strong statistical profile and a productive showing at the NBA G League Elite camp. What does Broome have to do to solidify himself as a 1st round prospect? What improvements should we be looking for? Let’s dive into his prospect case.

Meausuring at 6’9” without shoes and around 250 lbs at the 2023 G League Elite Camp, Broome has moderate NBA center size. With a seven-foot wingspan and a standing reach of 9 feet, Broome would be at a size disadvantage against your average-sized NBA center, although not drastically. Broome has physical strength that shows itself at times, but I would like to see him impose that strength more frequently next year. Most likely matched up with bench centers in the NBA, Broome should be able to hold up, but a more convincing display of strength would be encouraging. Broome cannot improve upon his size, but he can improve on his strength and physicality, which will become imperative when battling with behemoths in the league on any given night. 

As mentioned earlier, Broome’s statistical profile is overwhelmingly positive, with one glaring weakness: a worrisome career FT%. Almost everything else about his stat profile makes it feel like nitpicking to ask for much more in this upcoming season. The higher you climb, the harder it is to find oxygen, and Broome will find it challenging to build on such an efficient season. 

Broome’s shooting efficiency was superb this past season, with career-best EFG% and TS% in a year where he introduced a higher 3-point shooting volume, over doubling the 3-point attempts from the previous year. While encouraging, it is difficult to have too much faith in the shot due to a 61.5% career FT% on 532 career FT attempts. No matter what Broome shoots from the free throw line this year, even if it is a leap of an improvement, there should not be too much trust placed in that number, siding instead with the weighty historical evidence of rather poor free throw shooting. Still, stretching out to the 3-point line is a step in the right direction, and making that stretch element a more concrete part of his game would mean a lot in establishing real estate as a potential DHO hub above the break, where he is a capable playmaker. 

Over the course of Broome’s career, his assist percentage has increased and his turnover percentage has decreased, both to highly efficient degrees, refining a skillset in which Broome is able to operate as a useful offensive hub at times for Auburn. There isn’t much more room for statistical improvement in this area, so even maintaining that efficiency would strengthen his case. But on film, Broome’s passing out of DHO situations can and should get even sharper. I would not mind seeing a small jump in turnovers, granted it comes with tape of more nuanced, skillful passing; better and sharper timing on passes, better execution at times, more inventive passing angles. Broome has already proven he can do basic playmaking out of DHO actions, and it would be informative to know how far he can take his passing skill. Auburn will be a highly competitive environment, so it may be unlikely Broome is given enough leash to try out some more intricate passing. But on the other hand, Auburn may have games where they are whooping an opponent, and may give Broome opportunities to expand his game in this way. Not expecting any leaps here though, but a “stretch goal” to look for. 

As a play-finisher, Broome is efficient and shows soft touch on hook shots and push shots in the intermediate area. The lefty is very strong hand dominant, heavily preferring to get to that lefty hook out of self-created post touches. Broome’s post game has some counters and some pivots to it, and the left-handed tendency. His paint touch on those floater-type shots is nice, but the release itself is a bit slow and low, focusing on softly adding that touch rather than getting the shot out quickly. Some NBA centers may be tall, long and quick enough to snuff that out if Broome is too transparent about taking it at his leisurely pace. But if paired with a guard who can methodically encroach upon the paint, draw multiple defenders’ attention and lay it off to Broome in that deep paint area with space, he could put that touch to good use. A capable dunker and lob catcher with his decent vertical, Broome gets the job done around the rim, but nothing rim-rocking. As mentioned earlier, Broome could stand to impose a little more physicality in his finishing. 

The play-finishing also stems from constant and fluid screening, getting out of screens and DHO actions quickly and into rolls to the rim as a huge cog in the Auburn offensive machine. A veteran at this point, Broome clearly knows how to execute offense and be a useful screener, although the more bone-crushing screens the better. 

The offensive synopsis for Broome is that he seems to comfortably pass the basic thresholds in screening, finishing and playmaking (relative to position) but avenues for improvement in those areas seem steep, along with having reasonable hesitation about a shot that is admittedly headed in the right direction. 

On the other end, Broome is a solid college defender, executing POA schemes and generally being in the right spot. While his mobility is fluid for his size, it remains moderate mobility. Some closeouts and PnP coverage out to the perimeter can be a bit slow, but that is a difficult position for any center to be in. 

The size concern may crop up again with POA defense too, where Broome does put himself in good position, and yet the defense is not deterring much. On more aggressive coverages out on the perimeter, Broome can contain a more apprehensive ball-handler, but it does not take a whole lot of work from a quick guard to get around him or just make the next pass. Broome’s stance can be a bit high at times, and the lateral slides can get a bit hoppy, which more experienced guards can take advantage of or just speed by. In drop, Broome again situates himself well in those 1-on-2 scenarios, but guards don’t seem to have too much stress finishing over him, and bigs don’t seem too bothered finishing around him. Broome does increase the level of difficulty of some of these shots, but hoping to see more disruption, which manifests itself in recovering from blocks. I just wish the main source of disruption wasn’t stemming from getting beat initially. 

Lastly, I would again like to see Broome be more physical in the paint and especially against other bigs. I want to see Broome fighting for every inch of paint real estate, pushing post players out another foot or two. I want to see Broome hold up better against strong post players, who gain ground on him too easily. Broome needs to play more like someone who is legitimately 250 lbs. 

Yes, Broome does have successful instances too, but point being is that I wish his defensive presence was more impactful. I found many of his steals to be less about him creating the turnover and more about the offensive players’ mistakes. He would also make some risky pokes at the ball out on the perimeter, showcasing quick hands but not sure how available those steals will be at the next level. Broome has pretty good timing and hand placement on some blocks, and he requires both because neither his size nor vertical is overwhelming. He is also quite disciplined about keeping his arms straight up when contesting from vulnerable positions, but it’s typically coupled with not jumping either, which renders the safe contest largely unimpactful.

None of this is not meant to disparage Broome, who is a good if not great college basketball player, a highly productive and efficient player for a top-20 team. But considering his size and strength relative to NBA competition and his current skillset, Broome projects solely as bench big. There is a huge degree of difference between a starter and a bench big, and while a smaller difference between second and third string centers, there is still a meaningful distinction. The level of bench big Broome becomes will be determined by the shot (as is the swing skill of most players), because without it, Broome could find it tough to find separation from other bigs on the roster. All the margins add up, which is why I have been harping on Broome in this piece to stretch himself this season in search of development. Broome will be nearly 23 on draft night. I am not sure how much improvement is feasible, and he may not necessarily need any to be drafted, but in terms of his place on a depth chart, it could change the course of his early NBA career. 

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