I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

Not only will this piece analyze their games up to this point, but also give home remedies to fix what has gone astray. Developmental time when you enter “the league” is highly variable, dependent on draft slot, training staffs and existing personnel. But these players are often already a season behind given poor fitting one-and-done campaigns. Let’s see if we can’t help to set the new crews off on the right foot.

Dereck Lively (RSCI #2, Pick #12 to Dallas Mavericks)

Lively has perhaps the largest discrepancy between strengths and weaknesses in this class, and it wasn’t always clear Duke knew which was which. His up and down season included an early season benching, no longer starting as of the second week of January, but was able to bounce back by season end. His offensive toolset paled in comparison to the more versatile Kyle Filipowski, but defensive dominance is perhaps better suited for the pro game.

My favorite trait of Lively’s is his complete discipline on the defensive end of the court. Watching his pre-college tape alerts one to how this is: playing next to also-elite rim protector Jalen Duren in AAU, Lively learned to move all about the court and have an impact, not just stand near the hoop. Controlled aggressiveness has always been the name of the game for the seven-footer: a description likely worth a lottery pick at face value. His 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes I attribute more to just how many actions he covered, and not unprecedented in elite rim protector prospects (see: Joel Embiid’s 5.8 per 40).

The offensive end is limited in the strictest sense of the word. He is limited in that he has zero post moves and poor touch with the ball, but is able to find areas of value regardless. Returning again to his two-big lineup days, Lively is excellent passing to the interior, a coveted trait for a player of his size. He is able to seek passing windows for drop offs, even occasionally dribbling once or twice to create the space. He truly reminds one of Boston’s Robert Williams III in his ability to let go of the ball quickly despite zero shooting gravity. Expect him to be effective at dribble hand offs as well as empty side pick and rolls, anywhere he will be less rushed with a gap to create even a little.

Rookie Year Remedy: Rim First, Always

There is plenty to like about Lively as an NBA player, #8 on my board. But to insure he sets off on the right path, it’s important to tie him to his livelihood: the rim. Lively is an excellent roamer, but his size and technique better suits a hedge and recover big. If there is one area Lively lacks on defense, it is rim-first approach: he prefers to hunt out the action regardless of where it is. Instilling rim-first defensive principles is essential to him reaching that lofty All-Defense potential, an item Duke failed to preach, harmed by his inconsistent role.

While there was all kinds of hubbub about Lively’s three point shooting potential leading up to the draft, that is a highly unrealistic outcome in my mind for a 60% free throw shooter who made *1* midrange shot all season. In his rookie year with Dallas, Lively should be either 1. In the dunker’s spot, or 2. Hitting a body and rolling to the hoop, at any given point. Oftentimes at Duke he looked in no man’s land, setting a screen into a pre-failed action: that will not be the case with Luka, and makes it all the more important to know exactly where to space.

Brice Sensabaugh (RSCI #49, Pick #28 to Utah Jazz)

It is difficult to understand how Sensabaugh was ranked so low coming out of high school, or why he came off the bench for Ohio State. He has every sign of a unique scoring talent, eating up midrange space as a prospect to then let the feathery touch do the rest of the work. The defense needs work, but that is often the case for premier scoring talents like Brice.

First of all, the numbers – Sensabaugh shot 172 midrange attempts and made just short of half of them. Only Grant Williams and Marcus Morris exceeded his midrange volume and efficiency, and Brice had only 18% of his makes assisted compared to 50% for Grant, 43% for Morris. There is a good case to be made for Brice as the best midrange scorer in recent NCAA history.

So then, why did he fall to the 20s?

The defense, at times, is indeed indefensibly bad. Worst of all is the assignment confusion, a threat to his NBA playing time when player movement is ramped up to a far greater degree. Counteracting this is his defensive rebounding, where his rates of securing boards looks indeed like athletic wings, similar to that of Paul George or Miles Bridges in college. Brice is a big body, and knows how to leverage it in a timely manner when locked in. This gives us hope.

The passing is the other nitpick, and much more nitpicky. Passing is more context dependent than defense at a college setting, and Sensabaugh’s unique scoring traits make him a square peg in round hole for most traditional systems. I saw plenty of talent in him moving the ball, particularly adept at understanding how to make even a shallow drive into a kick. He will never be an offensive conductor, but you want Sensabaugh to finish plays anyways, rather than start them.

Rookie Year Remedy: Work From the Corners

The biggest benefit to Sensabaugh in an NBA system will be how he can no longer be the primary focus of opposing defenses. Sensabaugh struggles to get first steps on opponents, but is excellent at maximizing whatever margin is available. If he can lean into a spot up first, midrange craft second approach as a rookie, he can leverage his teammates’ scoring to help his own, and passing.

On defense as well, keeping Sensabaugh away from the action and close to the tin for rebounding purposes is the way. He will certainly be targeted in switches, where it will be essential for him to stay disciplined – his low steal rate and fairly high foul rate point to a poor decision-maker as it comes to trying to play-make on defense. He can be often found swiping where he shouldn’t, determined to compensate for lack of foot speed.

Utah has a bit of a challenge in finding how to maximize Sensabaugh’s unique talents, but Brice playing inside of his game can help shorten that journey.

Noah Clowney (RSCI #74, Pick #21 to Brooklyn Nets)

Clowney had less of a flawed season and more of a narrowly-defined one. He accepted a role player position at Alabama as a top-100 recruit in Nate Oats’ structured system, a three-and-D power forward between prized Brandon Miller and veteran Charles Bediako. Clowney filled the role admirably, putting up the fifth best Box Plus-Minus grade of any high major freshman.

Watching Noah’s pre-NCAA tape you see mostly the same, but there is intrigue along the fringes. The type that certainly tipped the Brooklyn Nets into seeing more. Most notably, I think Clowney can pass. Not guard-level passing, but adequate for a big, reminding me a bit of Minnesota’s Josh Minott the draft before. He cannot dribble beyond once or, maybe, twice, but when he does he makes the right play more often than you’d expect (for someone who can’t really dribble). The technique needs work, but you can see the outlines of a viable DHO conductor. Clowney got very little practice with the ball on a stacked Bama team, so it’s difficult to say what the ceiling is.

The archetype is swell: Clowney can block some shots, hit some threes, and use his size, strength and touch to finish inside and rebound. Unfortunately, his shotblocking is closer to good than great, three point shot closer to bad than good. But what I was most impressed with is how decisive Noah is when he gets the ball near the basket. His one-step craft to finish is indeed good, and, as Clowney is still not even 19, may end up very good.

Rookie Year Remedy: Play the 5

Now, I just pointed out Clowney lacks high-end polish and consistency across the court…you want him to take on more responsibility? Yes.

Clowney has the physique to hang in the interior, if not the discipline yet. But as a middle-of-the-pack squad lacking a big man floor spacer, the Nets can do worse than giving Clowney some bench run. As the five man, Clowney can refine his interior discipline, often caught contesting on his feet but leaning too far over, allowing his opponent to draw easy fouls. Rep those traits out of him while you have the chance.

Additionally, Clowney with a clean paint will allow him to experiment in ways he was prohibited at Alabama. Despite not being close to a focal point of the offense, Clowney had 27 dunks (6 more than Brandon Miller) and shot a very strong 64% on non-dunk rim attempts. He only took 25 midrange shots but hit half of them, encouraging that his touch is more effective inside the arc. As some more encouraging stats, when Clowney played without Bediako on the floor his free throw rate rose from 0.27 to 0.64; his rim rate from 35% to 56%; his rim finishing from 67% to 74%. He shot fewer threes but gained efficiency everywhere.

Clowney is unlikely to ever be a starting center or power forward, but by letting him run as a backup 5, he may improve both skills. He is strong enough at his core to eventually handle the more physical assignments, let him prove his offense against that.

Cam Whitmore (RSCI #12, Pick #20)

 Whitmore is a high-flying tank, a tornado of activity with a punch, punch to the rim. It’s easy to mix metaphors for a player whose movements make little sense. He’s a stout 232 but has one of the quickest first steps in the class. He is a power mover who can also chop his legs. I would not like to guard Cam Whitmore.

So, why am I lower on him? Well, first of all, he’s quite predictable. Whitmore loves his left, almost always utilizing a combination of a lefty in and out, crossover into either pull-up or straight line acceleration to the rim. The issue is the complexity and flexibility: despite the magic of his movements, it is still tough at the size of a torso to chain together quick moves.

On top of that, Whitmore does not seem like a very creative player. Much of his pre-NCAA production came from transition play, which, yes, that absolutely should be a priority of his NBA game. But he also misses open passes, some obvious rotations, and generally prefers to go from point A to point B without a flexion point in between.

I’m optimistic on him being a plus defensive player simply due to the significance of his physical tools; that quick of a step at that size is going to get blocks and especially steals. Steals are as valuable of a task one can complete outside of putting the ball in the basket. But when it comes down to papering over all the little items opponents can exploit in high-stakes matchups, it is not clear Whitmore is up for the task.

Rookie Year Remedy: Keep It Simple

I run the risk of being low on Whitmore in the same way I was too low on Bennedict Mathurin: NBA teams will be able to cover up for his weaknesses by getting him in his optimal spots. In particular, a young team like the Houston Rockets should be more than happy to run with Whitmore on the wings. Fortunately, he will not need to create many advantages on his own when playing off of Amen Thompson, passing extraordinaire, allowing him to catch the ball when already downhill. The combined pace and vertical talent of those two will be extremely difficult to contain in the open court.

The defensive end might be trickier, on a team that had the second worst points allowed per possession last season. The Rockets still lack an identity on that end, but might do best to lean into their hectic event creators of Tari Eason and Amen as steal mavens: a constantly roaming crew would also make the transition into transition easier.

The minutes breakdown in Houston will be fascinating to watch this year. But they have at their disposal, now, such a dynamic of talent that in order to take advantages of their weakness you may have to first disable their advantages. Leaning into Houston’s collective strengths with quite the store of talent will yield some unexpected results; many of those involve Whitmore as a major player.

Dariq Whitehead (RSCI #1, Pick #22 to Brooklyn Nets)

There was not a single prospect who deserved to have his season tape thrown out than Dariq. With a foot injury that required surgery before the season which never properly healed and a lower leg strain mid-season, Whitehead never looked close to his usual self. It is painful to even watch him try to move around the court wearing a Duke jersey; I cannot imagine what it felt like. Here’s hoping he undergoes the recovery he deserves.

To imagine what he might look like on the other side, we resort more to his high school and AAU tape. Whitehead was arguably the best player in all of high school basketball, rated first in the entire class by RSCI as well as winning the Naismith High School Player of the Year Trophy, back to back national championships and the MVP award for the McDonald’s All-Star Game. While Whitehead’s teams often featured other NBA-level talent, he stuck out consistently for his poise under pressure and contributions across the court.

Dariq is not without flaws as a prospect, but may be without any significant enough to call a true weakness. His athleticism is tilted more towards pace and balance than burst and power, but he is still able to win on first step and dunk above rim protectors here and there. I would advise against putting him on the quicker guards, but he should have no issue finding a suitable assignment on the wing. Whitehead simply contributes across various axes: his constant activity and nose for advantages means locating rebounds, rising and firing in a crowd, excelling at connecting passing but capable of throwing advantage-creating ones as well.

Whitehead has long been a favorite of mine to watch, and I feel a disservice to him in not being selected until the 20s. The NBA draft, first and foremost, is about imagination, even if it’s not obvious on the surface. Whitehead may not recover his full athleticism, but he was always more of a problem-solver than nuclear athlete anyways.

Rookie Year Remedy: Pindowns Galore

For once, it would be nice if things were made easy for Whitehead. From essential connector piece as a HS underclassman to shouldering the usage load as a HS upperclassman to just trying to stay on the court at Duke, he has fought for all he’s taken. I am proposing making it easier on Dariq.

My two favorite Whitehead weapons are the quickness with which he can get his shot off and his ability to stay upright on drives. Wrap those up with some decisive and creative playmaking and you have yourself an excellent play finishing prospect, especially if he stands at 6’6’’. I trust Whitehead perhaps as much as any in the class to make a dribble-pass-shoot decision off the catch while moving through a crowd, so here’s hoping that’s the desired destination for the Nets in getting Dariq up to speed.

Jordan Walsh (RSCI #17, Pick #38 to Boston Celtics)

If you got by Jordan Walsh, no you didn’t. Jordan Walsh has about as ideal as possible recovery tools on the defensive end. Inevitably, even the shutdown defenders lose a step to a true-blue offensive star. The basketball court is tilted towards the offense as the holder of the first move, and how little space it takes for many to get a shot off. But after the gap is created, Walsh will be as good as any at crawling back into perfect position; in fact, many of his steals and blocks came from what would be considered a disadvantageous position.

Walsh is the best shutdown defender prospect in this class, and the best I can remember in recent classes. Unfortunately for Walsh and other such as Usman Garuba, being a lockdown defender does not always guarantee playing time, especially if, as both of them are, you are an offensive liability.

Jordan almost certainly will be a negative on offense, but I am here to argue there is a chance he will not, and perhaps much greater than you think. The shot is where we start, inaccurate but not broken, as there is a lot to like: a simple one-two motion, decently set feet, but inaccuracy due to spatial issues (he throws inaccurate passes here and there) and a bit exaggerated of a form. Both can be fixed by corner three reps, as his 71% from the line, 28% from three and 36% on deep twos point to 33%+ on open threes potential.

The more significant reason for optimism lies in his tape from Link Academy. While inactive most of his time on offense for Arkansas, at Link he was the key to both their transition offense and connecting their half-court offense. He looked far more confident on the move, as with the Razorbacks could get overwhelmed in catch and drive situations. But I see a real passing threat as Walsh is highly creative for a wing and has the athletic tools to take advantage, or else get to the rim. Time to think at Arkansas meant overthinking, but again we see a lane for some offensive value.

Rookie Year Remedy: Just Belong

Walsh gets my most esoteric suggestion, as he simply needs to relax and trust the system on offense. That will be much easier, hopefully, in an ironed out NBA system with a longer view on Walsh’s role. Boston acquiring an early second round draft pick to take the defensive stud – a type they are long familiar with – is encouraging that he will be brought along at the right pace. Obvious from the tape, Walsh loves technique and being in the right place: the Celtics’ infrastructure should encourage that.

To get more concrete about the basketball court, Boston could use some additional front-court athleticism, particularly attacking the rim. Walsh is a stellar vertical athlete, clocking a 33 inch standing vert on top of a 7’1.75’’ wingspan. He is always vigilant on the court, and letting him leak out early in transition could do wonders for his offensive confidence. It may be ugly here and there, but when you have a talent of high athleticism with some creative potential, ugly may be worth putting up with. When remembering we are talking about a potential All-Defense level defender, the rewards of even slight offensive improvements could be spectacular.

Nick Smith Jr (RSCI #3, Pick #27 to Charlotte Hornets)

Nick Smith Jr., perhaps more than anyone on this list, put everything on tape at Arkansas that you would want, if you look for it. Most notably, in his 25 point, 6 assist, 4 steal, 3 rebound, 1 block masterpiece versus Kentucky, or similar 20+ point outputs with stats elsewhere versus Alabama, Georgia, UNC Greensboro and Oklahoma. In these games we see the sell for NSJ, quite obvious: he can score on the ball as easily as off the ball, and will work as hard as he can to be positive everywhere else. The passing is the “swing skill” – if he is indeed the PNR maestro he appeared before Arkansas, which I think he might be, Nick has real All-Star upside.

The shot and, more specifically, the touch is where the pitch starts with Smith, lofty for a guard but instead in a player with a 6’9’’ wingspan. That wingspan and touch mean any shot within 12 feet is available as a floater; his vigilance as a scorer and strong technique make him a threat beyond; his ease of fluidity into pull-up make his range endless despite the wiry frame.

As a pure scoring prospect, there are a few items you could ask for that Nick lacks: his first step is okay (made up somewhat by shiftiness), he has little strength (made up somewhat by aggressiveness) and he can be a bit programmatic getting into his actions. But even that is mediated by Nick’s unique head for finding the right action.

Time and again in watching Nick Smith’s tape, his team used him as a sort of offensive cure-all. Need to set up the primary action? He is a suitable custodian for the ball and adept in PNR. Need to come up with a counter quick? Nick is decisive with good enough handle and passing instincts to set up secondary. Shot clock running out? No shot is a bad shot for a shooter of Nick’s level.

Yes, his shooting efficiency was poor at his time with Arkansas. But knee injuries throw off the entire kinetic chain, making splits tough to judge without proper oomf into gather. At EYBL, Smith shot 56% on 8 twos per game and 38% on 5 threes per game. That is, flat out, both elite volume and efficiency, enough to wipe away any doubts. The tape as well shows ideal technique and the ball time and again falling softly off the rim through the net, if touching the rim at all, from every angle and release point imaginable. Buy it.

Rookie Year Remedy: Let Him Take the Hits

I mean this in a quarterback’s sense, as in, it’s tough to get into a rhythm without taking part in the physical aspects of the game. Nick is an aggressive player by nature, a rarity in his aesthetically-minded offensive archetype and beanpole frame. At every level of competition he can be seen helping aggressively when needed (sometimes when not), flailing around the court and picking up a surprising amount of loose balls and even blocks by virtue of activity. Smith struggled to provide this as often at Arkansas as in years prior, limited particularly in his ability to turn corners, previously much quicker.

NSJ needs not just to grow into his frame, but also continue to find ways to maximize his physicality as a way to win when speed does not. Again unusually for type, Smith has proven capable of finishing through traffic, even yards away from the rim with his touch. If he’s able to get to those spots and hold them down more consistently, that touch can do the rest of the work.

Jalen Hood-Schifino (RSCI #20, Pick #17 to Los Angeles Lakers)

The Schifino section might be the shortest as, well, I have the fewest hard takeaways about his game. JHS was extremely unproductive as a freshman with Indiana, in a context I don’t think was particularly unfair to him. While Hood-Schifino looks the part on the court, good stance and technique generally, he is the single least productive one-and-done first round pick in the barttorvik.com database.

JHS stood out at the NBA Combine with his seven-foot wingspan, which, in conjunction with a strong frame makes him a physical presence. However, the physicality stats lag: he only had 4 dunks all season, only rebound 1.6% of opportunities and had very low steal and block rates. He only took 76 free throws and the exact same number of rim attempts. Hood-Schifino survives, rather, on tough shotmaking.

While falling short of Sensabaugh’s midrange dominance, 90 for 216 (42%) is nothing to scoff at, especially considering JHS struggles mightily to create separation. He gets into his shot pocket almost automatically regardless of position, a rare trait. But scoring prospects need easy buckets, and those were few and far between for Jalen. While his finishing touch and creativity is good, he struggled to hit openings, stuck taking difficult rim attempts. This, along with mixed three point results, dropped his true shooting percentage below 50% – a tough pill for a shotmaking prospect.

If, rather, you view JHS as a table-setter, I have qualms as there too. For someone who looks in ready-set position at any given point, Schifino makes a shocking number of careless errors. Whether not executing a pass fully or not concentrating when catching the ball, a 19% turnover rate for someone with fairly basic offensive responsibilities is another red flag.

Finally, the defense. I want my table-setters to get into their opponent’s body, or at least be constantly roaming to use their length. JHS doesn’t really do either of those, evidenced both by his low stock rates and the tape where he’s seen getting disconnected from his man fairly often. The margins are small for this type with plenty of guard competition; JHS’s wingspan stands out, but is he using it?

Rookie Year Remedy: Shoot, Shoot Some More

The promised land for JHS, as well as the Lakers, relies in Hood-Schifino’s tough shotmaking. It is astounding at times how unbothered he is despite have zero breathing room to get a shot off. With a quick, high release, I trust him to get his tough FGA when he wants it, even if easier creation looks never come.

With LeBron on the team, JHS won’t have to table set if he doesn’t need to, and instead can run off of screen after screen to create that separation. His 6.1 threes per 100 possessions will hopefully be the fewest in his career, as 3s > 2s and JHS has no issue launching from distance.

I struggle to see JHS changing his tune as it comes to productive stats as the precedent would be too severe compared to his stats profile at Indiana, but it is still just one season. His pedigree, playing with the top HS and AAU teams in the country, should help him fit in on a win-now team, as he certainly looks like a pro when he steps on the court. But the carelessness is a quick way to be taken out and lose important development reps.

The post Evaluating the 2023 NBA Draft’s “Flawed Freshmen” appeared first on Swish Theory.

Whether or not I agree with that decision is another question entirely. What is important to me is that Golden State uses this pick to maximize the current roster, whether that means packaging it in a trade or taking a player they can project a role for. Evaluating these draft options goes beyond just the talent of the player. Some players I would love at 19 in a vacuum would be bad fits for the roster or the timeline, whereas others who have later first-round or early second-round must be considered at 19 because of polish and need.

We’ll go through this draft at every position, seeing who in range makes sense and who Golden State should avoid. Most importantly, we will explore the why. I will also add a prospect at each position that would be a home run if they slide to 19, and some second-round options if the Warriors explore a drastic trade back or buy their way into the second round. I’m not going to cover any trade-up options here: if you watched last year and thought this team could use another high-stakes 19-year-old, I cannot help you.

Guard

Stop The Fall: Cason Wallace, Kentucky and Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas

I’m not going to say anything about these two prospects that will hold a candle to what Tyler Wilson of this very same site wrote on the two early this week, so if you want to learn more about the two, this is prerequisite reading.

If the Warriors find themselves anywhere close to drafting either of these two, they will be extremely lucky. Especially if Cason Wallace is the pick. Despite being a one-and-done, he’s incredibly polished on both ends of the floor. Doing so as a combo guard is very impressive. He can function on and off the ball offensively, showing the skills to be a reliable playmaker with the athleticism and shooting potential to be a weapon in the motion offense.

The defense speaks for itself: he has the athleticism, motor, and production to back up the film. His 3.8 dBPM ranked fifth amongst all freshmen regardless of position last season, and 3 of the 4 above him are first-round caliber bigs. Pairing that sort of defensive impact with an offensive game that lacks any glaring weakness screams immediate contributor.

Nick Smith Jr. isn’t as much of a strong bet on the defensive end as Cason, but the offensive upside is tantalizing. A lights-out shooter with deep range in high school and the EYBL circuit, nagging knee and wrist injuries prevented him from showing his full scoring and playmaking prowess at Arkansas. He’s electric off the dribble when healthy, and shows the kind of hustle necessary to add some defensive impact in the long term. I wouldn’t be sprinting to the podium as I would be for Cason, but a brisk jog would do just fine.

Pass: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan

A young returning sophomore, Bufkin is flying up draft boards after his athletic testing matched the run he went on late in the season. It’s the perfect storm for an eyebrow-raising draft day rise. But even if he were available at 19, I don’t think Bufkin fits this Warriors roster as well as the previous guards.

He doesn’t have the bankable defense or consistent on-ball playmaking that Cason Wallace brings to the table, and I don’t think he brings the same kind of offensive upside you get from Nick Smith Jr. In theory, he fits as a combo guard off the bench, but I’m not sure if there is a bankable skill that will keep him in Steve Kerr’s lineup. Let a team with a longer leash and lower expectations figure out his game.

Draft: Keyonte George, Baylor

If Golden State stands to lose Donte DiVincenzo in free agency, Keyonte George would make for an excellent and more controllable replacement.

Despite pedestrian shooting numbers on the surface, George should be a great (if not elite) shooter off the dribble and catch at the next level. He oozes natural tough, and can easily shoot it out to 28-29 feet at all kinds of funky angles. Look no further than this:

He also has a penchant for creating long twos in isolation, a strong sign of his overall creation upside. He has the juice to attack closeouts to start and makes good passing decisions to boot, profiling as a strong secondary creating/shooting guard next to Jordan Poole off the bench. Though George is not the most technically sound in terms of on and off ball defense, he has an in-your-face demeanor and hustle that keeps his opponents unsettled. Another effort guy to bother tough bench matchups and take things off Poole’s defensive plate would be a huge add.

Draft: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

This might be my favorite fit for the Warriors at any position.

Hood-Schifino plays with a game well beyond his years. A methodical ballhandler and incredible passer, he’s a strong defender on the ball and from a team perspective. Shooting was a major concern going into his freshman season, but he did a lot to quell those concerns with a 38% mark on above-the-break threes, the closest equivalent to NBA range. If the shooting is real, he becomes a lot harder to leave open, opening up his superb downhill game.

JHS would be able to carve out a fine role even if the shooting doesn’t climb to average or above average. His ability to make plays at his size is uncanny, and he makes up for the lack of explosion on his drives with plenty of dribble craft and finishing skill. He’s got a pretty smooth pull-up jumper at 6’6″, and fits the profile of a secondary creating combo guard with real point guard upside. This kind of polished two-way guard game in a young guard is rare, and Golden State should jump on the opportunity to pair him with Jordan Poole.

Second-Round Buy: Marcus Sasser, Houston

If Golden State addresses another position at 19 or trades out of the pick entirely, they should heavily consider buying into the top of the 2nd round for Marcus Sasser.

A four-year player at Houston, Sasser brings production, experience, and a winning pedigree to whichever team is lucky enough to have him. The ability to defend all manners of guard, whether they are quick, strong, or just blazing fast, is a huge asset. Just enjoy this minute plus of Sassy (lmk lmk) getting after it on defense:

Not only is the defense very strong and highly projectable, but there is more meat on the bone offensively than most would think. The outside shooting by itself would give him offensive utility, but Sasser has shown he can create for himself and looks comfortable doing it. Per Barttorvik, Sasser hit 40% of his long twos with 77.5% coming from self-created situations. This is a huge sign for his isolation and second-side potential, and a big add for a team desperate for secondary and tertiary creation. He also made a solid 64% of his shots at the rim with 81.5% (!!!) unassisted. Sasser LOVES getting to his step-back jumper, especially when attacking closeouts, and it is a thing of beauty.

A great fit next to Jordan Poole, another hard-nosed perimeter defender, and a strong shooter with creation juice. Oh, and he’s not a teenager. Sign me up.

Second-Round Buy: Ricky Council IV, Arkansas

If I write anything about Ricky Council IV without including his sickening dunk reel, what is the point?

Council has a case for the best athlete in the class not named Thompson, Henderson, or Wembanyama. Not only is he explosive, a ridiculous leaper, and wildly strong for a guard, he has the functional athleticism that I tend to fall for. Council IV is ambidextrous, and leverages this hand-eye talent into some really strong handle and passing flashes:

The shooting is a major question mark: he has a quick motion and solid form, but a very low release point that I don’t think will translate at the next level unless he can raise it to better counter closeouts. Even if the shooting is a concern, the sheer dominance in transition and off the drive will bring plenty of offensive value. He has shown the chops to cut and move as needed, and could fill a super-GP2 role for the Dubs with some off-the-dribble juice as a bonus.

I’m also in love with the defense. Council IV has quick footwork, moves his hips well, and shows a strong blend of aggression and technical soundness that matches the athletic tools.

I’m also just pro-Hog. Any player Eric Musselman touches, the Warriors should try to get their hands on. And he’s certainly not the last Arkansas player we will be discussing.

Guard Wrap-Up

The strongest and deepest position in the draft, the Warriors should have several options on the board if they decide to go guard, or try to buy in later. There are several players I had to leave out for the sake of brevity as well. It feels likely Jordan Poole will have a new bench running mate in the backcourt after today.

Wing

Stop The Fall: Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite

Once again, I have nothing to say beyond what the brilliant people of our Swish Theory staff have already said. You need to read this debut article by our own Avinash Chauhan.

Are you done? Good. If you’re lying, think about what you have done before we move on.

Miller is a bit of a double-down on the Jonathan Kuminga experiment: a recent starter by basketball standards, Miller jumped from obscurity into dominating one of the best leagues in the world. The frame and athleticism are crazy, and even though the shot is a major problem area, Miller can drive and slash as good as any nearly 7-foot wing. I think this is the most project like player I would want Golden State taking. The physical tools and rim pressure potential are just too good to pass up. Even if it creates some early headaches, this could be the backup wing solution for years to come. No matter where Miller goes tonight, it will be too low. Find a way to get this man to the Bay.

Draft: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State

On a different end of the spectrum for wings is Brice Sensabaugh. He’s like Ball Don’t Stop met with a gamma radiation incident and grew legs, started to walk, and began getting some damn buckets.

Deep shooting range, touch, an ability to hit shots off bizarre footwork patterns, and a damn good handle. At 6’6″, Brice is a ready-made scoring forward for the NBA, and could contribute at all three levels. The scoring prowess by itself is enough to get him a rotation spot on a Warriors team that, as we have mentioned, is starved for self-creation at all positions.

Outside of pure buckets, Sensabaugh put up solid rebounding numbers, which helps bring up a defensive game that is lacking in relation to his wing contemporaries in this class. He’s smart, physically coordinated, and has good size. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brice becomes a passable wing defender and can bring help from a team perspective.

Sensabaugh would be an instant shot of life for the bench offense, taking some burden off Jordan Poole and giving them a potentially elite catch-and-shoot option/closeout attacker. The need is there for the Warriors, and Sensabaugh can slide right in at the 3.

Pass: Jett Howard, Michigan

This is another case of “love the prospect, hate the fit”. Howard came in as a highly touted prospect to Michigan, but his one-and-done season was arguably a disappointment. The size is great and the shooting/creating potential is evident, but there are lots of other concerns that override that potential for me.

Don’t get me wrong: the shooting range and handle are very real, and he has shown some really strong passing chops. You can see it jump off the screen every time Howard plays.

The main concern for me is that this is the exact player Steve Kerr is not inclined to play. Just look at Patrick Baldwin Jr., who had an absolute strap and could contribute on the glass, and found himself at the end of the bench the whole season. Yes, Howard has far more on-ball offensive potential, but he’s as close to a zero on the glass as you can be for a 6’8″ combo forward. He’s also not an event creator defensively, making it an even tougher proposition that he would get instant playing time.

Furthermore, I feel that Howard’s offensive game is too perimeter-reliant. He wasn’t good at using his handle and frame to create trips to the line, giving him a low floor for each game offensively. If the shot isn’t falling, the playmaking suffers, and all the warts really start to show. If this wasn’t a team trying to compete for a fifth championship, I’d be more in on Howard as a fit, but he is just as likely to sink a roster spot for the first couple of seasons as he is to contribute to the rotation. That’s not a risk Golden State can take right now.

Draft: Kris Murray, Iowa

Yes. That is my answer to Kris Murray, Golden State Warrior.

Though not as polished as his brother Keegan, who had an outstanding rookie season in Sacramento, Kris brings ready-made shooting, touch, and knowledge of his own game. Not the biggest or most athletic, I’m always impressed with his awareness of his own skillset and abilities. You rarely see Kris attempt a play he cannot finish; he knows his limitations, and is excellent as working within those confines. More of a functional athlete than an explosive one, Kris is still capable of rocking the rim when he gets going.

What I appreciate the most about his game is the defense. He’s incredible at moving his feet, keeping the right arms up, staying vertical when rotating, and picking out the right spots to move and use his frame. This clip right here is the basic sell on his defense: responsibility, activity, and staying out of trouble spots:

Murray could be a solid weak-side rotator who poses a challenge when switched out on the perimeter with his footwork skill. He’s certainly not going to be the defender that breaks the defense, and that is a very valuable trait considering the defensively sound bigs and wings the team currently possesses. Of all prospects in this class (save one we have yet to discuss), he’s the best bet to crack Steve Kerr’s rotation and contribute immediately.

Pass: Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine

In a similar vein to Jett Howard, there are just too many short and long-term concerns to justify the Warriors taking on a project like Maxwell Lewis. He’s a great prospect in his own right, there is no doubt about that. But considering the state of the roster, it’s just a poor fit for both sides.

Lewis has tons of offensive potential as a movement shooter with good on-ball skills, and has shown some passing/handle flashes to boot. He could stand to add some weight, but the 6’7″ lengthy frame would be ideal at the 3 spot. Unfortunately, there are serious athletic concerns that give me pause about the risk-reward. The foot speed and technical skills on the defensive end are lacking, and he’s not great at flipping his hips in quick succession to deal with side-to-side dribbles. Footwork was the calling card for Moses Moody two drafts ago as a way to make up for athletic limitations, and his defense has hardly panned out to date. I’m even more doubtful of Lewis’ impact on that end.

Even if he finds a niche taking on guard assignments defensively, it’s a tough proposition to get him in the lineup. There’s no ignoring the talent and potential, but how long he takes to get there should have the Warriors looking elsewhere.

Second-Round Buy: Julian Strawther, Gonzaga

A junior coming out of Gonzaga, I have been dreaming about Strawther in a Warriors jersey since his freshman year in Spokane.

At 6’7″, Strawther is one of the more prolific shooters in the entire draft. He built on a strong first two seasons of catch-and-shoot ball with an elite season from deep, hitting 40.5% of his 195 attempts from deep. Just look at the above-the-break marks for this season and you can see elite NBA shooting potential:

His 3-point and free throw marks have gone up in all three years, and with his penchant for getting to the line when attacking closeouts, the scoring floor is really strong for an off-ball wing. It helps that he has limitless confidence and ice in his veins that would put D’Angelo Russell to shame.

He’s no playmaker or major rim threat, but plays a perfect shooting wing role. On the defensive end, there is work to do. When going up against NBA-level talent, he looks well behind the curve. This game against Pepperdine (and Maxwell Lewis) brought serious concerns to light:

Strawther has made up for this lack of defensive prowess in recent years with strong defensive rebound numbers for a perimeter guy, and I think he has the overall feel to be a decent rotational defender. Whether or not he can get stops on the perimeter is a huge question, but when you’re going for second-round guys, you have to take the good with the bad.

And my God is there some good in that strap on his shoulder.

Second-Round Buy: Jordan Walsh, Arkansas

The polar opposite of Julian Strawther in almost every sense, Walsh screams late-second defensive steal.

Yet another Razorback on this list, you can make a real argument that Walsh is the most well-rounded wing defender of the entire class. Physical tools, foot/hip speed, technically sound, strong in rotation and communication, he truly has it all.

It seems likely that Jonathan Kuminga will be traded elsewhere over role concerns, leaving a defensive hole in the bench wing group. Walsh can fill that and more. If Golden State can add more guard creation to take things off Jordan Poole’s plate, Walsh slots right in as the defensive specialist off the bench to put the clamps on all guard and wing matchups.

Nobody is going to confuse him for a 3-and-D guy anytime soon: there are very few indicators that he can develop a strong jumper at the next level. The pull-up twos can be rough and he’s a middling free throw shooter in addition to the 27.8% mark from deep. But he oozes athletic potential, and even a low-30s three point mark could open up the lane on closeouts, where he gets to flash his powerful strides and ridiculous wingspan.

It’s not the biggest upside play you’ll find in this draft, but you would be hard-pressed to find a 20-year-old that Steve Kerr would be more willing to play. A Gary Payton II/Jordan Walsh bench unit would be nails against opposing bench scorers.

Wing Wrap-Up

The talent in this group will really dry up by the time the Warriors are on the clock, but there is plenty to look at later in the draft. I debated heavily over adding Jaylen Clark, Amari Bailey, Sidy Cissoko, and Andre Jackson Jr. to the list, which speaks to the depth of wings once you get past the lottery. There will be options aplenty if Mike Dunleavy is looking for him, but there are certainly some land-mine projects they have to avoid stepping on.

Big

Stop The Fall: Dereck Lively II, Duke

Close your eyes and picture the perfect Warriors starting center. Don’t get caught daydreaming about Kevon Looney (which I am guilty of): think about the ideal frame, skillset, and strengths to fit their mold. What you are picturing is exactly what Dereck Lively II brings to the table.

Leading the country in defensive BPM last season, Lively II is one of the best shot-blocking prospects in recent memory. He erased a whopping 12.8% of shots when he was on the floor, placing him third in the country; the entire rest of the top five is comprised of seniors, while Lively II is a true freshman. Dereck is also just a silly vertical threat on offense, with a massive catch radius for lobs and tips that makes him a menace in the restricted area.

There is also some reason to think his natural touch will expand over time. A 3/21 mark on long twos and threes doesn’t scream future floor spacer, but he could gradually turn into a midrange threat that can hit a corner three every once in a while. Even if his offensive game is limited to within 3-5 feet of the basket, he’s the perfect dunker spot threat for this offense. If the screening develops, he’s damn good on the roll. He posted an 86% finishing mark on the roll with Duke, and though the volume isn’t there he can fill his offensive role to a T in Steve Kerr’s offense.

Controlling the glass and dominating the paint on both ends, Lively II could walk in and be a plus backup to Kevon Looney, and a more than capable starter if the team needs an extra vertical threat. This would be a home run in terms of talent, need, and fit for both team and player. I need it.

Draft: James Nnaji, Barcelona

There is a real dearth of bigs in the first round after Wembanyama and Lively II go off the board, but talent is out there. Though less polished than Lively II, James Nnaji fits in Golden State for all the same reasons.

He’s a prolific shot blocker, smart paint defender, and serious vertical threat around the cup. Being that good in Europe as an 18 year old bodes very well for his future, as the offensive environment is much more similar to NBA pace and spacing compared to the NCAA.

There is also a clear upside here for Golden State to tap into. He’s had flashes with the ball in his hands, and has shown the atlheticism and footwork necessary to guard out to the perimeter on pick-and-roll. Even if he’s mostly a drop big in this system, the ability to switch up coverages and keep the offense on their toes will be a major asset if it develops. He’ll need to rebound at a higher level than previously shown to make a true impact, but Nnaji could hold down a rotational center spot before his rookie contract is up if he can stay healthy.

Second-Round Buy: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

You want an instant rotation big in this draft? Look no further than TJD.

If he somehow manages to make it past the Nuggets and their bevy of picks (he is reportedly a main target for Denver), Golden State needs to blow up the phones trying to buy a pick. TJD is smart, experienced, athletic, and immensely talented on offense. He will be a positive force on the glass at both ends, more than holds his own with paint defense, and would be a dribble handoff maestro in this offense. A true center who can put the ball on the deck and make extra passes is something they have not had in this Warriors era, and it would be a match made in heaven on the offensive side of the ball.

Big Wrap-Up

The bigs are certainly shallower in this class, but Golden State could still find themselves with a ready-made contributor if they play their cards right. There are a couple of home runs here in my eyes, and though unlikely, Dereck Lively II might be the best fit for them in the entire draft. Keep an eye on a trade up to snag him.

Putting a Bow On Things

You probably saw several themes emerging in this article: target potential contributors, avoid long-term projects, but don’t be afraid to capitalize on massive upside if it falls right in your lap. It seems clear after the Chris Paul trade that Golden State will hang onto this pick and look to add reliable depth, but you never know with this front office. A few years down the line, this could be a pick that makes or breaks the end of this championship window. No pressure.

The post Draft Day: Golden State Warriors Guide appeared first on Swish Theory.

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those four players hold 9 of the last 11 Finals MVP trophies. The NBA is a league dominated by large ball handlers, with the best leading their team to NBA finals infamy season after season. 

Few people will argue that the best players in the NBA are largely forward-sized (or larger), with Steph Curry as the only real challenger to that throne for nearly twenty years. What defines a successful NBA guard has changed over that time, but the lens with which we evaluate the position has not evolved along with it.

The search for a modern lead guard has become more and more difficult as time has progressed. In a world where the best players on championship teams are over the height of 6’6”, what does it mean to be a “lead guard” when you aren’t the driving force for your team? 

Let’s take a look at the conference finals of the last five years and what kinds of guards thrived in those environments.

In the East you have Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart (Derrick White?), Kyle Lowry (Miami and Toronto versions) and Trae Young. 

In the West there is Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso and Damian Lillard. 

There is a general feeling that a point guard is meant to be this ball-in-hand maestro, pressuring the rim while operating the offense like a puppeteer, but that is so rarely the case when the calendar turns to June. What are the skills most consistent with those above groupings? Any of versatility (in both offensive role and defensive assignment), overwhelming shooting gravity, and/or pick and roll excellence. No-look skip passes and mid-air acrobatics make for an incredible highlight tape, but in the last half decade of basketball has rarely been a driving force in championship success.

This lead guard mentality often seeps into the evaluation of draft prospects, docking players for not living up to a flawed standard. In the 2023 NBA draft there is a glut of guard prospects in the heart of the first round from Anthony Black to Kobe Bukin and Jalen Hood-Schifino, but there are two that stand out in the afterglow of playoff basketball.

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are two versions of the modern point guard, standing on the backs of excellence and versatility. In a crowded class, what makes these two prospects more suited for playoff basketball? The times have changed. 

The Prospect: Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace is the basketball personification of persistent excellence. Few teenagers have played a full season of college basketball while making as few mistakes as Cason did this past season. On the offensive end, Wallace toggled between an on-ball and off-ball role in a crowded backcourt, but seemingly always made the right decision. 

Wallace is the rare kind of prospect who never takes anything away from your team. He doesn’t make unforced errors or sloppy turnovers, he executes his scheme and chips away at you bit by bit. That kind of controlled dominance is something worth valuing in translation to a role in the NBA, but also from a developmental perspective.  

Succeeding in your role as a young player in the league is the fast track to increased opportunity. So few rookies enter the league as manageable defensive players, and those that are that have even an inkling of offensive skill are immediately thrown into the flames

That trial by fire will be Wallace’s rookie season, and few prospects have been as prepared. He will be on an NBA floor in October, a success for any NBA draft pick, but it is his potential impact in Junes to come that makes Cason Wallace an ideal modern point guard.

The Pitch: Floor General and Defensive Mastermind

The biggest knock against Cason is that he doesn’t quite have the juice you’re looking for out of a lead guard. In a wide-angle view, that is a stance I am sympathetic to. Wallace lacks your traditional “workout moves” you see out of lead ball handlers, rarely resulting in flashy combos or deft manipulation, winning his battles in a much more brutish and physical manner. 

That doesn’t lead to your typical draft prospect mixtape for a point guard, but the results themselves were statistically astounding.  Wallace is efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. At the rim, Wallace shot an astounding 66%, far and away the highest mark in the class amongst guards. His finishing quality comes from a combination of strength, touch and crafty finishing angles. He is not the most explosive guard with the ball in his hands, but his skill and athleticism more than compensates.

Beyond his finishing at the rim, Wallace shot a scalding 44.8% on dribble jumpers in the midrange. Despite his relatively low usage rate of 20.3, Wallace had an impressive volume of two-point self creation. He was never overwhelming, but was incredibly efficient in the types of shots NBA offenses will ask him to take. 

Wallace is best operating out of a pick and roll, allowing him to read the defense within a familiar construct and in turn make quality decisions. He is not the flashiest passer, but he makes the reads required of him in lay downs, pocket passes, or kickouts. He is not someone to create offense out of thin air, but give him a closeout or a ball screen and now you’re cooking with gas. 

Cason was efficient from everywhere on the floor this past season, particularly within the arc. Typically when you are really good at scoring in certain areas, teams will lean on that until you become less efficient. That never happened at Kentucky, the sky is blue and water is wet. I am not saying Cason Wallace is Jamal Murray or Devin Booker, but the idea he is incapable of shouldering a larger scoring load on offense does not track.  

There isn’t anything Cason should be asked to do at the next level that he won’t thrive at from day one. That immediate translatability is incredibly important. Wallace will have the opportunity for on court reps the moment he steps onto an NBA court, in large part because of his defensive impact.

Wallace is one of the most advanced defensive guards at his age in modern history. A team-defense wizard, he is always in the right place at the right time in help or jumping passing lanes. He is an effective defender in isolation and uses his strength well, but can struggle to navigate ball screens with a bulkier frame. He is still an effective defender on-ball and provides versatility there, but it is the off-ball defense that pays the bills.

The best defenders anticipate actions and are already there seemingly before it even happens. It’s a catalyst for good defense, plugging holes before they have time to let in water. You know the famous Derek Jeter play where he just appears behind home plate to complete an entirely insane series-saving play? That’s Cason Wallace.

The Fit: Steady Hand of the King to a Score First Wing

Teams built around a score-first forward like Giannis, Jayson Tatum or Kawhi Leonard are the ideal fit for a guard like Cason, and it is no coincidence they have found success next to guards with a similar value proposition in Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverly.

No matter how much teams stress offensive flow and inclusion, in playoff hoops the ball finds your star, and your offense is defined by what they do with it. They aren’t creating enormous advantages for others, so the necessary threshold for creation is higher for their teammates. You need to do something when the ball finds you and the defense has a short closeout, but the returns on self creation are diminishing.

The best self creator on the team is already installed, and only one person can create at a time. Boston is not taking the ball out of Jayson Tatum’s hands for a Marcus Smart iso (on purpose). Thriving in the other areas of the game is where you begin to see exponential impact, and that is the case for Cason. I am more optimistic than some regarding his ultimate upside as a scorer, but genuinely I am not sure how much it matters.

Cason Wallace will be thriving in playoff rotations for the next decade because of his defense and steady-handed efficiency. Cason Wallace’s game is built for modern playoff basketball. Prospects with that certainty of two way competence do not come around often. For a point guard on a wing-led team, the combination of supreme defensive impact and scalable, diverse offense is a proven recipe for success. Beyond immediate translatability the combination of early-career opportunity, defensive processing and athleticism are a proven recipe for outlier development. 

The Prospect: Nick Smith Jr

Nick Smith Jr is a fixer-upper fan’s dream. A top-five recruit entering college many expected to be in contention for a top-three pick, the flashes of electric athleticism, limitless shooting and instinctual passing seemed to be the foundation of a creator. 

A preseason wrist injury requiring surgery and an in-season knee injury all but sapped any hope of Smith building on his positive momentum entering the year, and as a result his potential draft position has slid precipitously.

This is a phenomenon that irks me to my core. Nick Smith Jr is not a meaningfully different prospect than he was a year ago. His foundation of quick-twitch athleticism, shot versatility and budding self creation remain an ever-present part of his appeal as a prospect and his freshman season showed flashes of it all.

Any player that misses training camp, the beginning of the season, and is then sidelined for two months with a (minor) knee injury is going to struggle to integrate themselves into a system, particularly one as spacing deprived as Arkansas this past season.

It is easy to look at the macro-level statistical output and lower NSJ down your board accordingly, but that statistical sample is far too flawed to take at face value.  

The Pitch: On- and Off-Ball Creation

The first thing you have to start with when discussing Nick’s freshman season is the shot. The numbers from an efficiency perspective were incredibly poor, especially for a prospect billed to be an excellent shooter. The context of his injuries, wrist and knee, are important in understanding that sample.

Could it be possible that the only real difference in his success as a shooter between this year and last is his health, and comfort getting into his shot? In my eyes, that feels more likely the more I watch. Smith wasn’t just a good shooter in high school, his touch was outlandish and his range was already Lillard-esque. Shot creators take a long time to develop into efficient scorers, so it is no shock an injury-riddled season led to inefficiency. With that said, NSJ’s flashes as an initiator, using his gravity and shot versatility to create offense, were as scalding as ever.

Learning to harness your gravity is what catalyzes the offensive impact of guard creators like Nick, but it is something that only comes with time. It takes a high level of feel and creative boldness to truly maximize that kind of offensive weapon as an off-ball mover and freestyle passer.

Nick can make reads in the pick and roll in the half court that lead well to future projection as a passer and creator for others, but it is his excellence within the confines of chaos that truly intrigues me. When things go awry, the ball seems to always find its way to Nick, and in turn the spectacular follows.

The free flowing nature of modern basketball is made for a freestyle artist like Nick Smith Jr, and he will thrive in the chaos of transition as soon as he enters the league. That open court creativity fuels the dream of potential half-court creation. 

This past season Smith settled a lot in the half court, too often chucking up a difficult floater early into a drive. From a sheer volume perspective, NSJ trailed only Brice Sensabaugh and Jalen Hood-Schifino in per70 mid-range scoring, the only issue being his drastically lower efficiency.

Unlike Brice and JHS, who often struggle to create initial advantages yet find a way to score, Smith is a shifty handler with real burst. His handle is still rudimentary at times (see: injury, wrist) but his comfortability with unorthodox movement styles and jitter-bug athleticism make for an encouraging creator bet as he grows into his frame.

That last part is the key, and ties directly into his overall efficiency woes. Smith is able to create initial advantages, but often is too weak in his handle or frame to maintain them, much less finish through rim protection waiting in the paint. 

The Fit: Score First Robin to a Jumbo Playmaker Batman 

You don’t have to look far to find the ideal test case for this fit, with the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets showing just how effective it can be. The NBA is dominated by larger playmakers, and it makes sense: the taller you are, the more passing windows you have at your disposal. Be it Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic or more unproven options like LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Amen Thompson, size and passing ability are a combination of skills you find in foundational pieces of rosters across the league.

Smith is the ideal player to pair with that style of creator for a few different reasons. Offensively, his scalability both on and off ball is a valuable trait, as the style of his game thrives in both settings. The versatility of Smith’s game relies on his jumper, and that is the thing I am most confident in projecting forward. One injury-marred season doesn’t change that. 

Adding size and the ability to play through contact would be next in line, and one that feels pretty safe to project (at least to a moderate degree) considering his frame and age. NSJ is never going to be a bully ball guard, but he has the height and length to grow into a stronger player than he is currently. Being able to finish some looks through traffic would be a positive step, and something that should come easier on a properly spaced NBA floor with NBA level offensive players surrounding him.

On the defensive end, much of the vision again relies on Smith adding at least a modicum of strength. He is a hyper-quick athlete with the kind of twitchiness you need out of a point of attack defender in ball screens. He does an excellent job of using his body to maneuver through screens while staying locked behind the defender, where his length does wonders as he recovers to contest. 

Certainly there were major lapses in technique and attentiveness throughout the year, but when things were clicking the vision of NSJ as a player who can successfully fill a role in an effective defense begins to look a little clearer.  

This is not to say NSJ is going to be a high impact defensive player (though I am undoubtedly higher on his defensive potential than most), but he does fill a useful role for most rosters. No star, big or small, wants to defend opposing point guards at the point of attack. Smith has the tools to succeed there, and with the proper organizational emphasis should do well enough there to provide value, all while being an incredibly dynamic offensive player.

That road to even moderate impact is important, as it means the likelihood of a prospect becoming a “man without a country” on the defensive end. NSJ may not be the best POA guy in the league, but he has the tools to fare much better than the alternative. Taking the defensive assignment nobody wants to take and providing potential star offensive value on and off the ball is like team building fertilizer, it makes growing a healthy roster landscape that much easier. 

The Wrap: Guards are Good

The idea of a “lead guard” is a useful concept, one that describes a general archetype that is one of the most valuable in the league, but its definition has become too narrow. 

In a modern NBA where offensive initiation is more diversified than ever before, the requirements of point guards differ on nearly every single NBA team. The idea that being a point guard requires three-level self creation and advanced passing reads to be an A1 point guard prospect is overly dismissive. 

The best guards in the postseason are the guards that mesh perfectly with the needs of their surrounding talent. Every player has their own strengths and weaknesses, team building in the NBA is about finding players that accentuate the strengths of the best players in your team. 

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are primed with strengths that enhance modern title contenders and the players around them with the upside to change the course of a championship.  Sounds like a lead guard to me. 

The post The Lead Guard Fallacy appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Metrics

Todd Whitehead (@crumpledjumper on Twitter) and the people of Synergy Sports recently created a Synergy Shot Quality metric, measuring the quality of each and every shot. Through various components explained below, shots are compiled into a single score, ranging from high (>80th %tile of shot quality) to low (<20th %tile of shot quality). Swish Theory’s Tyler recently used this metric for a piece on shotmaking prospects Brandon Miller and Jett Howard, for example.

Along with the metric, Synergy has labeled each player with an offensive archetype that best resembles their playstyle/role, analyzing their usages and tendencies to develop 3 primarily roles: Ball Handlers, Wings, and Bigs, including sub-archetypes within each role. 

The Data

Coming back to the original topic of difficult shot-making, I wanted to see how college players in Swish Theory’s Top 40 Prospects stacked up in their frequency of low quality shots and the efficiency of these shots. The x-axis measures the share of each player’s field goal attempts categorized by Synergy as low quality looks, while the y-axis displays how well each player shot on those attempts.

The further to the right on this graph, the greater share of difficult attempts; the further up near the top, the better the shotmaking.

I divided the results by archetype as well to best compare each player relative to their own role. To add the finishing touch, I included multiple historical examples to see how some of the NBA’s best match up. 

The number one standout in this study is Jalen Hood-Schifino, terrorizing drop coverages with his mid-range prowess (sad Purdue noises) with the highest share of shots being difficult. While Nate Oats preaches the paint-and-three approach more than maybe any other coach, seeing Brandon Miller in the lower left corner is slightly concerning for hopes as a late shot-clock creator. Nick Smith Jr. had a messy freshman campaign battling injuries and consistent playing time, but his main sell circling around his tough shot-making spells some concerns as he lands at the bottom of this graph (albeit on limited volume compared to others).

If you look up a bit higher you can see ol’ Jalen Brunson hanging around on an island. His upper echelon functional strength, change of pace, and sweet footwork worked wonders in the trenches, and his outlier shot-making was one of the key indicators of his future success. 

Jarace Walker did not have an easy shot diet, especially for an athletic/defensive inclined big wing, but maintaining respectable efficiency in spite of that provides some hope of a higher-end offensive outcome. Brice Sensabaugh was made for this graph, and his elite in-between and pull-up game scorched the Big Ten. Mikal Bridges is an interesting case study, as he was rarely tasked with difficult shots in college, but showcased elite efficiency that has shown to pay dividends for his self-creation jump.

As we move to bigs, we see a massive increase in the quality of looks these bigs are getting, as the high-percentile shots right at the rim occur at a sizably higher rate than their counterparts. No surprise to see the rim-running Dereck Lively and Adem Bona slotted in the top left corner, with a combined mere 13 low-quality shot attempts between the two. Domantas Sabonis is the biggest outlier of any NBA player I’ve looked at, the soft touch + bruising strength steamrolled over the poor WCC. Taylor Hendricks and DaRon Holmes II are the only two bigs in this class with over 10% of their looks being difficult shots and above average efficiency with those shots, though one can be certain Victor Wembanyama would break this graph entirely.

Conclusion

While more research needs to be done to truly make an assessment whether these low quality metrics can stand as a predictor for self-creation/difficult shot-making, there is value in locating those flashes of outperformance. Whether it be in volume or efficiency, taking shots late in the shot-clock, off the dribble, in isolation or contested with some degree of success is a bright green flag for future NBA contributions.

It is worth a reminder that these are small samples by their nature, and may say as much about a prospect’s context as their performance. As well, taking a more difficult shot diet is neither a good or bad thing, but a means of the talent of a player and the needs of a team.

At the end of the day, you can look at these stats as glass half-empty or half-full: a player takes too many bad shots or it shows promise of higher usage at the next level. Or, a third option: lean into your inner hooper, shatter the glass on the floor, make some popcorn, and delight yourself to a BallDontStop highlight mix. Something we should all do a bit more.

The post The Pure Hooper Index appeared first on Swish Theory.

First, they dive into Nick Smith’s limited college sample and how his skill set translates to the NBA level before discussing Keyonte George’s spectacular shotmaking from beyond the arc and potential as an offensive engine. They wrap the episode with the overwhelming defense of Cason Wallace and his inevitable success in the NBA.

The post Ep 10: Combo Crazy: Nick Smith Jr, Keyonte George, and Cason Wallace appeared first on Swish Theory.

Nick Smith Jr. is a native of Jacksonville, Arkansas. He shot up the national rankings his senior year at North Little Rock high school to No.1 on certain national ranking sites. Smith Jr. is already considered one of the best guard prospects in the country before playing a regular season game, highlighted by him being a finalist for the Jerry West Award- which goes to the best shooting guards in the country. Nick Smith Jr. combines a nice blend of three-level scoring and playmaking from either the primary or secondary ballhandler role. He also flashes some ability to guard well on the perimeter or even off the ball. Nick Smith Jr. is a star in the making and has enough tools in his bag to support someone taking him in the top 10 of the upcoming NBA draft.

Offensive Intrigue

Part of the Intrigue of Nick Smith Jr.’s offensive game is his shooting ability. In 15 games during the 2021 Nike EYBL, Smith Jr. shot 37% from three on 4.8 attempts per game, according to Cerebro. There is no doubt he will be able to continue his success from three as he continues to rise from high school, College to the NBA. The form is effortless and compact. He can get his shot off catch or off the bounce.

Not only can Smith Jr. get to his spots from outside the arc, but he can also use his handle and shiftiness to shoot from inside the arc. He has a knack for shooting off different platforms as well, he doesn’t necessarily need a a ton of room to get to his shot off in the mid range area. This skill is really valuable for his archetype and role for the next level.

Also, Nick Smith Jr. has great touch around the basket in the half court. He likes to get to his floater a ton. Now, I do think he can rely on the floater a bit too much, but when you are productive as he is with it how can you knock it? I would like to see this year at Arkansas him getting to the rim and finishing through the trees a bit more. Especially with his capability to play off ball, if he is drafted by a team with an already established primary his game can easily translate to playing more off ball and attacking closeouts can be a true boon for him.

Transition is another area of the game that Nick Smith Jr. makes plays. You can tell that the transition game is a canvas for him and his handle, shifitness, aerobactic finishes, and lob passes are the brush strokes. There are a certain bunch of players that when you watch them you feel the confidence they exude from their play on the screen or in person, NIck Smith Jr. is in that group. He excels pushing the pace and finding easy baskets or just shooting in rhythm threes. The below is a mix of highschool and some of his stellar play from his exbition games in Italy before his knee injury.

The 6’5″ combo guard is known for his shooting ability and there is no qualms with that takeaway, but he also shows momentsof playmaking ability. The ability to playmaker from both the primary ballhandler and secondary ballhandler roles. He understands that teams are worried about his shot and reads the game well. If there is a hard closeout he will attack a defense in get them in rotation. Short closeouts and he is shooting that ball with no conscious. He’s a scalable player that will make a coaches decisions on lineup versatility a lot easier.

Defensive upside

Alright enough of the offensive side of things. I will admit it’s hard to look past how easy Nick Smith Jr. makes offense look at times. But we must talk about his defense. When you watch him play you are not equating what you are seeing to the Marcus Smart’s of the world. You are seeing a player who when engaged can be anywhere from neutral to hopefully a consistent positive on the defensive side of the floor. When engaged Smith Jr. does a great job of doing the work early-getting to your landmarks on the floor early, so its it easier to react to the next play. There have already been instances with the Arkansas Razorbacks where he gets to the low man position early and is able to make a play on the ball for easy fastbreak baskets. Not only being in position for help on low man responsibilities, but also stunting at drivers and at points getting two hands on the ball for steals. Smith Jr.’s On ball defense has looked good, but once again the key word is: engaged.

In conclusion

The Arkansas Razorbacks have assembled a team that has defensive versatility, but it lacks in shot creation. This is a perfect opportunity for Nick Smith Jr. to be put in a position to show off his strength which is scoring the ball and using that scoring gravity to set up his teammates for easy looks. I look forward to Nick Smith Jr. taking advantage of this chance to show why he should be talked about as a top-5 pick.

The post Nick Smith Jr. appeared first on Swish Theory.