They are, after all, the only tangible thing we’re guaranteed, from birth to death, and treating them as we would a sacred place of worship is an act of self-love that isn’t inherently religious. Viewing healthy physical habits the way a spiritual leader views the upkeep of their temple breeds gratitude, if not for a divine creator than simply for having your body to begin with. Of course, such gratitude leads to self-acceptance, and we’re more encouraged to do our daily stretching or follow our diets when we think of them as treating our bodies/temples kindly, rather than being bred out of dissatisfaction with what we’ve been given.

So believe me when I tell you I feel like a reprobate in saying that Nikola Topić is an uncommonly gifted 18-year-old hooper regarding his processing, his understanding of where the pressure points of a defense are at any given moment, and that I’d trade a whole lot of those smarts away for his f***ing shins to be a few degrees more malleable.

First, let’s focus on the rare basketball sense Nikola Topić has, which he displayed this past season in both his time with Mega Basket of the Adriatic League, and after his call-up to Red Star, where he mostly faced Euroleague competition when he wasn’t on the shelf with a left knee injury. (His season was ended by a partially torn ACL).

With Mega, Topić was the offensive engine entrusted with running repeated pick-and-rolls, which became the layout for many of his reads. Over 13 games, he averaged seven assists and three turnovers, but given how often the ball was in his hands, conservative decision-making actually depressed each of those categories, as Topić was occasionally too smart for his own good.

Here, Topić sees two defenders come to the ball as his screen-setter dives to the rim, with the ‘lift’ shooter rising from the strong-side corner. That defender sticks with the shooter instead of recovering to the roller. Great! But then, Topić realizes there’s surely a defender in the other corner he has to worry about, and technically, he makes the right decision to skip it to that other corner to create a catch-and-shoot jumper.

I went through this season’s tape chronologically after watching many of his shots/assists/turnovers from the prior season with Beograd to get a baseline, and it was immediately clear that the young Serb had the 2-on-2 situations down. You know, drive-and-kicks one pass away, hitting the dunker spot on drives, hitting the roll-man vs. drop coverage, dynamic situations in transition, that was all great. Sometimes awesome:

But you saw the wheels really turn for Topić when considering the whole court, and earlier in the season, particularly with Mega, it felt like he perceived potential advantages at a high-level, but not the actual ones, as in that first clip: It’s exciting to see an 18-year-old guard immediately processes two on the ball, and then one help defender, and then another one in the opposite corner…but the highest-value read was probably just to hit the roller anyway, right?

Same thing here, on an empty pick-and-roll where two defenders come to the ball. Topić hits the big at the top of the key, whose defender was the only helper who could recover to that roller; now he has to guard the pall, and Topić is pointing to the next read as soon as the ball leaves his hands:

But Topić probably could have made that play himself, had he not been knee-capped by a fixation on the admittedly correct help defender to fixate on. Which is why I was jumping out of my seat by the end of his season, when Topić frequently took matters into his own hands by not only analyzing help defenders, but manipulating them himself.

Look at him manipulate the low-man on this pick-and-roll with his eyes, allowing him to make the highest-value pass by not just recognizing the potential advantage, but actualizing it:

This is where I believe Topić will add value as an NBA contributor, perhaps next to a renowned advantage-creator. His ability to exploit advantages is on a clear incline, and his sense of defensive pressure points does not disappear when he’s not the ball-dominant, pick-and-roll puppeteer he was at Mega Bemax. Across eight games with Red Star, where he had a larger share of off-ball opportunities, he displayed the type of quick decision-making and connective passing every team wants to surround their big guns with:

Yes, I am high enough on Topić’s decision-making that I’m not overly worried about his 29% 3-point shooting this season with regards to his future as an off-ball contributor, though that should improve too. (He is, historically, a high-80’s free-throw shooter.) But certainly, his sell as a prospect is that of a high-volume on-ball creator who gets into the paint at will, but that’s not all he can be.

Here’s a clip from the very first game of Topić’s 2022-23 season with Beograd, where he roasts a closeout that doesn’t come near the 3-point line:

It’s another positive bit of decision-making off the catch, but it’s also instructive as to the type of driver that Nikola Topić is, even in more static situations like a half-court pick-and-roll. He will pick that ball up early, often beyond the free-throw line, and trust that he can get all the way to the rim or somewhere near it afterwards. For most of his career, this has been a fine strategy, given his straight-line burst and wonderful body control/touch while in the air.

Per Synergy, he shot 68% with Mega this season on half-court attempts at the rim, which does not include a single dunk. That’s explained by a combination of a reported 6’5.5″ wingspan and that tendency to pick the ball up early, which again, didn’t matter much with Mega against Adriatic League competition.

Plenty of his buckets looked like this, where he operates the pick-and-roll, and despite taking his final dribble outside the 3-point line, finishes over the outstretched arms of a big man whose technique and/or athleticism could use just a bit of work:

Or, perhaps something like this, where Topić executed a no-frills, straight-line drive against a big man on a switch, just blowing by him with two dribbles that don’t cover a ton of ground.

No, those don’t dribbles don’t cover much ground, and sigh, it’s time to talk about those shins.

What I’m referring to is a concept known as “shin angle,” referring to the angle between a player’s shin and the floor; the more acute (closer to parallel) it gets with the floor, the more torque/later mobility they have off that step. Think of the most flexible players you know, who can bend tight corners by getting low to the ground or change directions and demonstrate a damn-near truly parallel shin angle like the inhuman Shai Gilgeous Alexander:

This is decidedly not Nikola Topić, who has exemplary north-south pop, but with lateral mobility that belongs on a pavement court the morning after it rained. His routes to the rim take the shape of a banana, rather than a zig-zag. On his very first possession with Red Star in 2023-24, he blows by a poorly executed switch, but instead of careening right off the defender’s hip, his wide angle to the rim allows that defender to recover, though Topić evades him by hanging in the air:

On that play, we see Topić’s other athletic flaw, in that he’s not very flexible with his upper body. His shins get reasonably low to that ground there, but his center of gravity is not. Of course, if SGA and Kyrie Irving are the bar, then we’ll never be satisfied, but this is still quite the difference:

Against Euroleague bigs, Topić started to feel the weight of his driving limitations, for perhaps the first time in his life. He shot just 6-of-14 at the rim, per Synergy — small sample size, I know — but it matched the eye test, as wide driving angles that were exacerbated by aborting his dribble too early turned would-be makes against weaker competitions into some blocked shots and impossible floaters against more mobile defenders:

That said, Topić still showed flashes of downhill production, exposing weakness in point-of-attack defense. When switches and hedges were slightly off-kilter, or defenders were the slightest bit confused by, say, a ghost screen, Topić was more eager to take advantage of that daylight. Somewhat similar to his playmaking strengths and weakness, the tantalizing guard prospect has no problems identifying advantageous driving lanes. It’s creating them that we have to worry about.

I do say tantalizing guard prospect intentionally. Despite a lack of horizontal shake and a consistent outside shot, Topić offers enough talent at such a young age (18 on draft night) that I wouldn’t balk at anybody who has him in the top-tier of prospects.

That does bring me to the first larger question when evaluating Topić, though, one you might be able to guess if you’ve read the title to this piece, and that’s one of complementary skills. In a vacuum, a guard with plus-positional size who has both excellent feel and excellent touch who’s already displayed advanced acumen in the NBA’s preferred pick-and-roll style has to be near the top of your big board, right?

Well, not if you don’t believe in the glue that connects those skills. For Topić, the glue could be the horizontal shake needed to access that superb touch and feel on the ball and shooting off of it; there’s reasons to be skeptical in both areas, particularly the former. And this season, we often saw a lack of burst in small spaces dim his playmaking. Do we think he couldn’t process and execute these baseline drive-and-kicks, or could he not access these because he couldn’t turn the corner on his matchup?

This is the crux of Topić’s defense as well, where his processing and understanding of rotations is as strong as it is on offense, but the end of the floor where his lack of lateral movement skills come back to bite him even more. And speaking of defense, NBA teams will let him access his strengths even less often than Adriatic and Euroleague teams, even beyond the improvement in individual defenders.

Why would an NBA team put themselves in rotation by hard-hedging Topić, the coverage we saw in many of his on-ball passing clips from the first section? Before we even get to drop coverage, will he not have years of seeing teams test him by going under ball-screens or switching? He’s not shy to pull up from three, but brashness is a long way from effectiveness, not to mention a lack of mid-range counters that seem antithetical to his full-speed-ahead driving nature.

Finally, can a worthwhile bet be made on exposing the cracks and slippages of an NBA defense? This, after all, is what I’m most confident about in Nikola Topić’s game, that the spaces created by confusion at the point-of-attack are ripe to be uncovered by his aggressive, north-south nature. However, is a truly enticing ball-handling prospect not one who primarily thrives on creating something out of nothing?

Nikola Topić might have been the most polarizing prospect — non Zach Edey division — in this NBA Draft class before he clocked in with a negative wingspan and a partially torn ACL this month. And after diving deep into his film, despite the obvious combination of production, youth, and skill, I can say I understand the skeptics for the reasons I delved into above.

However, I disagree with them. There is feasible skill acquisition within reach that would secure Topić’s outlook as one of the best bets in the 2024 NBA Draft class to return value as an offensive creator an NBA team can depend on. We’ve gone 2,000 words without discussing his ball-handling ability, just his tendencies.

But those tendencies, namely the early pickups and lack of ground coverage, have far more to do with the shin-angle and flexibility limitations that I think will see marginal improvements as he nears legal (American) drinking age. But even if they don’t, Topić’s handle itself is where my optimism lies.

Topić has the ball on a string, both trusting it in tight spaces and in north-south situations:

There was even a glimpse or two of a late change-of-direction, such a spin move after Topić realized he didn’t have the angle to the basket simply going full speed.

Watching him prove that these dribble counters — particularly that spin move in the lane — are in his bag, but so infrequently pulling them out, is a sign that Topić has rarely had to rely on them when his signature sprints to the rim have been enough to get by. I don’t know how much I trust his horizontal shake to improve, but I do trust that he start taking the extra dribble more consistently.

In his age-18 season, it was in his bag, just unnatural for him. Still, that coveted extra dribble was the difference on possessions like these, first where he draws a foul, and secondly where he makes a poor decision with the ball, resulting in a turnover:

Topić has beaten defenders to the rim all his life by putting his head down and turning it into a track-meet, facing real resistance for the first time in his mid-season jump to Red Star this past winter. There, his circuitous driving routes were exposed a bit, but more importantly, so were his lack of counters. We hardly saw late spin-moves in the lane, or shielding a shot-blocker with his body, and jumping off two feet. It would have helped here:

The glue that has bound Nikola Topić’s strengths together has been his straight-line burst, an ability that’s forced defenses to trap and hard-hedge him in an effort to prevent him from wreaking havoc in the lane. That, however, opened up his advanced play-making; the counter then would be frequent switching, but competition with Beograd and Mega rarely featured a big who could keep up with him. Transition offense was child’s play.

The glue to connect his playmaking and finishing in the NBA will change. No longer will it be enough to put his head down and go, and while the side-to-side athleticism will rarely leave defenders in the dust, this is where skill acquisition will elevate Topić’s game. Shooting, of course, is an obvious swing factor, but so is taking extra dribble to get further into the lane, or to the other side of the basket, prolonging his decision-making window.

Against Euroleague competition, Topić would frequently find himself with no live dribble, about to jump off of one-foot without having created an advantage, a situation he rarely found himself in with Mega or Beograd. His drive was hitting the fan, and he’d have to find a bail-out option rather than a high-level read:

I believe Nikola Topić has the necessary ball-handling ability to build a web of counters, to continue his downhill marches against NBA defenses particularly as his shooting improves, especially as he provides enough off-ball value to earn a longer leash with whatever team drafts him.

Would I still trade much of his basketball sense for that east-west shake we desire in our lead guards? It’d be the safe move, as it would likely assure Topić’s main selling point would translate to the NBA, that he’d at least be able to get into the paint vs. anybody, regardless of the decision-making surrounding his drives. Whoever drafts him would more likely be getting the version of him they’ve seen on film.

Yet, I’m a believer in this version of Topić, the only one we’re going to get, perhaps for the same reason I’m a believer in doing ten minutes of yoga a day. He is a uniquely challenging prospect to evaluate with extreme strengths and weaknesses, but in leaning toward acceptance rather than dissatisfaction, analyzing what tools he has rather that what tools he doesn’t, I’ve found the improvements Nikola Topić has to make are within reach.

The post Nikola Topić Scouting Report: On Complementary Skills, NBA Defenses, and Skill Acquisition appeared first on Swish Theory.

The board below contains archetype tags, sourced from my articles for the Stepien discussing rim protectors, shotmakers, connectors and offensive engines. Also included are four custom metrics, gauged subjectively rather than statistically. Scalability is one’s ability to scale up or down in usage on either end of the court. Readiness is where on the contribution timeline a player lands. Specialness is the collective rarity of skills (or, on the flipside, commonness of other traits). Versatility is what it sounds like.

Big Board Spots 1 through 20:

Big Board Spots 21 through 40:

The post Matt Powers’ 2024 NBA Draft Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Because the magic is elusive, difficult to explain, let’s break it down clip by clip. Featuring the highest feel players in the 2024 NBA draft class:

Nikola Topic

Moniker: Mass manipulator

Nikola Topic comes out as the top feel prospect in the 2024 draft class for one major reason: he is the only one capable of freezing an entire defense at once. Topic does this in a couple of ways, but mostly built off of his drive threat (he takes 7 rim attempts per game, and finishes at a 68% clip). No one is better at knowing when to attack a gap than Nikola, monitoring multiple opponents at once.

Here he attacks right as the opponent is switching onto him, but also right at the moment his big is clearing out the opposing rim protector under the basket. His execution is flawless: instead of attacking immediately he eats up space waiting for the confusion of the switch. He then sells his left hard before crossing and accelerating with his right. Then a hallmark of Topic’s drives: he can pick the ball up early and still confuse a rim protector with his stride lengths and deception. This time cradling with his right to protect from the defender on that side, slowing his gather to leap just past the lone big but not drifting too far left.

Balance, speed and coordination are all needed to pull off moves like this, but more than that it requires a feel of the defense. Topic not just knows how to get past one defender, but how to run defenders into each other.

Topic’s drive threat enhances his passing and vice-versa, and how he maintains a stellar 2.2 assist to turnover ratio. He is adamant in pushing the ball ahead, with a keen understanding of where the soft spots of the defense are. Above, bursting into transition and hitting Nikola Djurisic filling the lane. Then, immediately after, hunting a rebound, kicking out to a shooter while in mid-air. In both instances Topic is ahead of the game, getting an edge on his opponents with his awareness in spite of lagging them by multiple years in age.

This pass might not catch your eye at first, but exhibits Topic’s flexibility of mind. Realizing he has committed to passing to a blocked path, Topic recovers mid-pass, twisting his hand to instead dump the ball off to the big waiting nearby for the assist. That instantaneous adaptability is rare, even if making up for his own mistake.

Here, Topic reads a backdoor flawlessly, executing an off-hand scoop laser. While seemingly designed, it still requires patience and timing. Topic is a true court general for a professional team, and a big part of that is teammates trusting you to make a hairline pass.

Topic knows how to run pick and rolls, but a lot of people know how to do that. What makes him unique is his ability to layer in multiple responsibilities at once, aware of his teammates, while also slicing apart a defense with his drives. To stagger footwork and dribble moves when an opponent is most off-balance is an ultra-valuable trait not maintained by many teenagers. To do that while also hitting whichever of your four teammates is most open is genius.

Reed Sheppard

Moniker: Muck in the gears

Sheppard was featured among our most productive prospects, but shines even more with his feel for the game. Reed is more subtle with his swindling of unsuspecting opponents. At 6’2”, Sheppard has good not great athletic tools, but he weaponizes them to maximum effect.

A major way Sheppard makes life difficult for his opponents is his spatial awareness.

A hallmark of Sheppard’s playmaking is he often looks out of place. This may be the reality here and there – Reed is aggressive in seeking out plays – but The Reed Method generally works. In the above clip, he tags the roller hard given the hard hedge, making sure to cut off the big’s roll. He leaves his man longer than advisable, but, in true Sheppard way, gets the steal anyways. He knows exactly where his man will be cutting and rotates to the exact point he needs.

Reed’s spatial awareness mixes excellently with his hand-eye coordination and timing. Sheppard blocks shots by swiping in the single foot of space that will allow a non-fouling contest. This happens often – he is first in steal rate and sixth in block rate (yes, despite being only 6’2”) among high major freshmen in rotations.

On offense, Reed’s feel shines in three areas: his ability to seek out soft pockets, his ability to get shots off in small spaces, and his creative passing deliveries. In the above clip Reed weaponizes his hesitation dribble in a unique way. He first hesitates off of the ball screen to give his roller more time. Realizing the roll man isn’t on time (and, in fact, two defenders are on his tail), he takes a second hesi, this time faking a layup with the move, an inventive solution. Hesitations work for fake shooting, not just feigning a pass, and allow Sheppard to keep his dribble alive long enough to find the corner shooter.

Reed has to get creative due to his stature, which we’ve seen him accomplish in his defensive coverages and now also his passing. Add in his ability to get shots off in tiny spaces with heightened awareness and you see the outlines of a savant.

Reed Sheppard has best in class spatial awareness and hand-eye coordination, two traits that combine to make a stocks machine. Adding in his small space craftiness mean his feel is truly elite. Sheppard covers large territories by moving with intention and knowing how to beat people to their spots. He covers small spaces with near perfect hand placements. While not always perfect, he has the tools to make as advanced feel plays as anyone this class.

Devin Carter

Moniker: Now you see me

Devin Carter has been a feel god for his three college seasons, and especially on the defensive end where he has accumulated 182 stocks to only 153 fouls. But Carter’s feel extends beyond simply knowing how to swipe the ball on defense, especially as he has expanded his offensive game significantly in the 2023-24 season.

Here we see one kind of Carter’s magic. In the middle of the paint with three defenders swarming, Devin somehow manages to find the space to finish and adjusts to use the backboard despite the awkward angle. Carter has a knack for finding angles like this, and all over the court. This is the kind of innate talent that allows him to finish at a 67% clip with three of every four makes self-created.

Carter is capable of thinking ahead to bend the defense, too. In the above clip he pushes into the gap to his right knowing how that would collapse help. The second the rim protector (#23) commits, Carter is ready to dump it off to his man. While Carter mostly engages in connective passing – moving the ball along the perimeter to play finishers – his development as a play finisher has meant more opportunities to pass out of scoring gravity like this. While he may force looks here and there (his 1.3 ATO ratio leaves something to be desired), the idea is always sound.

Make sure you finish the above clip! Carter, ever one step ahead, jumps in front of the rebounder to bully the ball back in his hands. He misses the trey, but the willingness is encouraging as well – Carter has miraculously raised his three point attempt rate from 6.5 attempts per 100 as a sophomore to 11.0 (!) as a junior. And while raising his 3P% from 30% to 39%

Another example of his passing progression. Carter is not accustomed to being hedged against that high, with newfound three point volume extending his gravity (6.5 3PA/game after 3.5 last season). However, he has immediately figured out how to use this to his passing advantage. Here, Carter makes a push dribble to split the hedge, then engaging with his two shooting targets. While nothing special for traditional point guards, this development is key to Carter’s upside. Not just for the skill itself, but for his ability to problem solve in evolving ways.

Carter appears where you least expect him to succinctly apply his broad skillset. It is tough to count him out of any single play given how he can connect passes, create them, finish off of drives or from deep and create transition opportunities on defense. All of these make him a first round-worthy prospect, with a solid floor and perhaps continually untapped upside, building on some of the best feel in the class.

Reece Beekman

Moniker: Cuts like a knife

The first clip below is quintessential Beekman, as you can already see how he deserves to be on this list.

Reece sets up the offense before receiving an exit screen he hides behind, then gaming the re-screen by rejecting in favor of the baseline. Already he has found a gap, and simply through accuracy of positioning. Next, he gives a slow snake through the paint before whipping a one-handed kick out to the corner. But the sequence is not done. Back on defense, Reece sprints through a double drag quickly enough to swipe around the ballhandler, poke the ball free and dunk.

Everything is on display here, from his care to involve his teammates on offense, his specificity of footwork, his situational awareness to take well-timed risks.

Above another accomplishment of a lot with a little. Recognizing that his teammates’ disorganized screening and cutting was futile, Beekman slashes into the lane with his left (65% of his drives). He waits for both of UVA’s shooters to clear out as he makes his move, help turned away or obstructed. Then, in the middle of the lane, he keeps his defender on his back with a well-timed hesitation sideways into his body. This also freezes the big man help, as his hesi opens up a passing window should he choose to dump it off. Instead, he finishes with a wide open window.

While UVA’s offense might get him easy assists as he is the conductor surrounded by cutters, Beekman has also figured out how to sneak in rim attempts below the radar like this. Beekman’s self created rim attempts per game increased by 40% from last season. He’s getting plenty of opportunities with his 28% usage but figuring out how to expand efficiently – his 52% true shooting is the highest mark of his college career. As a mediocre shooter overall, gaming interior opportunities like this is essential.

Beekman is a surgeon on the defensive end. He weaponizes his knife-like hands with perfect swipe placement, aggressive with both hands. According to the barttorvik.com database, Beekman has two of the seven seasons with a 4% steal rate or higher and fewer than two fouls per 40 minutes. He clears both thresholds easily, the highest steal rate of that group with the second fewest fouls. He is the best perimeter defender in the class, through a wide stance capable of choppy feet but also picture-perfect positioning, timing for when to swipe. He will be an elite defender at the next level, too.

Reece Beekman has leveraged the same type of footwork accuracy that has made him a deadly matchup on the defensive end to expand his game on offense. With rim attempts and assists per game increasing ever year, it is unfair to count Beekman out for continuing to make his offense NBA-viable. Simply being where you’re supposed to, then cutting like a knife with decisive action is how Beekman operates. That will be deadly regardless of the competition.

Oso Ighodaro

Moniker: Steady presence

Our only big among the highest feel players (with respect to Clingan, Hall, Holmes, Almansa, Mogbo, Yang, Filipowski, Broome…there are a lot of high feel bigs in this class), Oso Ighodaro is the most mistake-free player on this list. Ighodaro gets stocks without fouling and assists without turning the ball over. He is the fulcrum for Marquette, and they are happy to allow him to make countless important decisions each game.

The first clip is on execution, Oso’s specialty. Just as his man begins to roll, noting the difficult angle the ballhandler would have to make a pass, Oso hops aggressively to trap the ball. Flustered, the ballhandler coughs it up with ease. Sticking with the play, Oso is ready for the ball on the fast break, takes a beat to spin to an opening and…blows the layup. It happens. But the important part is Oso is always ready, and in position.

Another example of perfect execution with a flair of creativity. Oso is a great screener, often considered a lost art in young bigs. Here he hunches over, making his body as big as possible to lock up the ballhandler’s defender. He rides this mismatch to the tin, and then, after a poor delivery, is nimble enough to spin mid-air and find a shooter. Ighodaro is not just capable of running your plays, but is prepared to adjust when things go awry.

Ighodaro is excellent with positioning on both sides of the court. Here he is vigilant to prevent the clear out, and then also the entry to Joel Soriano, despite being disadvantaged by 35 pounds. He gets leverage both high (pulling Soriano’s shoulder back) and low (getting under his center of gravity). When the Marquette defense breaks down anyways, Oso is ready to help — but not too far. Staying one step away, he has just enough time to rotate back for the block.

This type of feeling out positioning as not a strict guideline but basis to then make plays is the hallmark of Oso Ighodaro’s game. Any NBA team would be comforted by his stable presence, but also feel comfortable running second side actions in an instant. He has done this at a very high level with Marquette – bolstered by excellent finishing touch – and would be just as reliable in the NBA.

The post How Prospects Read the Game appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

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