The draft is one of three paths to building a team, and arguably the most important for teams in smaller markets deemed less attractive to free agents and disgruntled stars who may demand trades, but only if they hand-pick their next team. This is due to the team-controlled 7-years and the value of finding impact players on rookie deals during this upcoming salary crunch around the league.

My Scouting Process is simple: Film, Data, Communication.

Watch as much tape as you can on as many prospects as you can, go to as many games in person that you can, evaluate as much relevant data on these prospects’ basketball player development journey from youth to pro as you can, look for the winning traits that translate to winning basketball at every level, like defensive instincts for forcing turnovers, quick processing decision-making feel on and off the ball, offensive rebounding, dribble, pass, shoot feel for the game, developable ball skills relative to height/position like shooting, handle, passing, and the scoring versatility, creator upside, compared to play-finishing skill-set each player possesses, which helps outline all the potential roles that player could fill.

Some skills like handle, 3pt shooting versatility, defensive versatility can help players reach higher impact than expected, as they each create advantages that make it easier to do other things; the handle creates opportunities to score and pass, the 3pt shot drags defenses out of the paint with gravity, and the defensive malleability allows one to understand and execute different defensive schemes in different roles guarding different positions, sometimes all in one possession.

Quick effective team-first decision-making may be the most important skill of all separating players at this level of athletic greatness; the mind may be the most powerful muscle separating the average rotation player and the winning players.

General big boards help build a consensus view of how this class is built via a list of the best players available. Every team, however, has their own big board filled out differently. While this consensus list is helpful to target value at different slots in the draft, a more useful tool could be filling out a big board based on a specific team, where team-centric needs, roles, situations are addressed more directly.

From there, learning from other scouts, hearing their points of view on their findings, understanding others’ perspectives through their lens, helps any evaluator cover up blind spots and round out the scouting perspective, to help see the glass half full on prospects who you may have undervalued at first.

The 2025 NBA Swish Theory Draft Guide is a helpful place to start for understanding how great draft minds view this class via ranking the Top-59 on a general big board, with filters available to target the talent and player archetypes your team needs most.

As far as my Draft Process, here are my goals for ranking any big board:

First, I’m looking for potential Superstars, guys who can be legitimate franchise cornerstones for a decade anchoring the team to 50 wins without any help.

Second, I’m targeting Offensive Engines and Defensive Cornerstones; offensive players whose mere existence creates a reliable option to run team offense as a scorer and distributor on a night-to-night basis and defensive players with outlier DPOY potential. Scoring creators who consistently create good offense for their team through reliable decision making and star-stopping defenders who are so elite, smart, versatile that they actually slow down opposing stars.

Third, I’m hunting for All-Star/All-Defense level talent, scorers and stoppers who project to potentially become Top-30 offensive players or Top-10 defensive players in the league one day, who will likely be High End Starters on championship teams.

Fourth, I’m searching for High End Starters, players who have a realistic path to impact the game at a higher rate than the average rotation player, who have likely floors as fringe 5th starters, 6th man, role players on winning teams. These are likely “good basketball” players who can bring two-way (scoring and defensive) versatility.

Fifth, I’m interested in finding Role Players whose floor is fighting for rotation spots, those who have elite skills in one role on both ends like rim-rolling and rim-protecting, or those who can hold their own on both ends of the floor with dribble-pass-shoot and switchable defensive skills, like defensive connectors who can hit the open three and make the smart pass.

Lastly, I’m looking into Potential Pros, players who have NBA length, athleticism, body strength, or outlier skill advantages like quick first step burst, playmaking vision, decision making feel, 3pt shooting, to take a swing late on unique talents.

Orlando needed shooting.

Arguably, the team needed pull-up 3pt shooting most, someone who can draw two out to the perimeter to create space for others, and ideally also possesses reliable point guard duties; either from a guard, a wing, a center, someone who can run the show when Paolo and Franz aren’t taking the lead. Someone who can set those two big wing stars and depth of play-finishers up for off-ball opportunities, cuts, rim-rolls, closeout-attacks, instead of asking them to create from scratch every time down.

Enter Desmond Bane.

Orlando addressed its biggest need (pull-up shooting), its secondary needs (C&S shooting, connective playmaking, halfcourt initiating), AND didn’t have to sacrifice the team identity (defense) to do it. The Magic somehow landed the ultimate complementary third star to its young core without taking a step back in the short term to do so.

So, what else does this Magic roster need to continually search for perfect floor balance lineups and variety of depth options?

As Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner battle it out in the NBA Finals, another apparent team need could be a reliable two-way starting center, ideally a unicorn 3&D tough shot making big man, who don’t exactly grow on trees.

Take Porzingis as an example, sliding right in next to Boston’s big wing stars, cleanly transitioning from an All-Star post-up extraordinaire with the Wizards to a glorified 3&D role with postup mismatch opportunities on a much more crowded Boston team.

Launching an offensive attack with that level of overqualified talent in a role where less is needed allows the player to maximize their winning impact; maintain energy for both ends of the floor; prepare, know, and thrive in their predetermined role.

Otherwise, endlessly hunting defensive connectors seems to be this Magic team’s priority, searching for two-way versatility, quick processing team-first decision makers, players with few holes who can dribble-pass-shoot and switch on defense.

Now that Orlando has addressed its primary shooting/scorer/playmaking concern, the question remains: what finishing touches does this roster need to start contending?

PG: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Cory Joseph
SG: Desmond Bane, Gary Harris, Jett Howard
SF: Franz Wagner, Tristan Da Silva, Caleb Houstan
PF: Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac
C: Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, Mo Wagner

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Offensive Scoring Creator vs Play-Finishers/Connectors


When reviewing the Cerebro Sports data on 2025 NBA Draft Prospects (only including NCAA), an interesting result pops up when playing around with the numbers.

If I wanted to find two-way versatility, I could look for players who can fill roles as a defensive playmaker/offensive connector/3pt shooter/playfinisher, aka someone who brings plus defense, makes team-first passes, hits open 3pt shots, rebounds, scores 2s effeciently, and helps force turnovers with steals and blocks without fouling, then I can use that idea to filter through Cerebro’s data.

Setting 4 filters to average or above (At the Rim, Defensive Impact, 3pt Effectiveness, Floor General Skills), we can find players who rate average or better compared to the draft class in these categories.

The Results? only 4 players are average or better at defense, 3pt shooting, passing, and the rest of those attributes baked into Cerebro’s formulas
:
Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Danny Wolf, and Max Shulga

These next two data viz show the Best Offensive Engine Scoring Creator 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data:

Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP), Floor General Skills (FGS), and 3PT Effectiveness (3PE)

2025 NBA Draft – Cerebro Scoring Creators Scatter

and the same data by position:
better passing = bigger square // better scoring = darker color

Top Prospects in Floor General Skills (FGS):

1) Ryan Nembhard 96
2) Kam Jones 82
3) Javon Small 79
4_ Egor Demin 78
5) Mark Sears 76
T-6) Kobe Sanders / Kasparas Jakucionis 74
8) Walter Clayton Jr. 73
T-9) Nique Clifford / Cooper Flagg / Max Shulga 72
T-12) Jeremiah Fears / Dylan Harper 71
14) Danny Wolf 69
T-15) VJ Edgecombe / Johni Broome / Sion James 67


Top Prospects in Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 93
2) Eric Dixon 88
3) Vladislav Goldin 84
4) Nique Clifford 83
T-5) Maxime Raynaud / John Tonje / Dylan Harper 82
T-8) Collin Murray-Boyles / Kam Jones 81
T-10) Cooper Flagg / Johni Broome 80
12) Tre Johnson 79
T-13) Walter Clayton Jr. / Chaz Lanier 78
T-15) Asa Newell / Rasheer Fleming / Adou Thiero / Javon Small 76


Top Prospects in 3PT Effectiveness (3PE):

1) Chaz Lanier 93
T-2) Eric Dixon / Koby Brea 90
3) Walter Clayton Jr. 88
4) Tre Johnson 87
T-5) Javon Small / John Tonje / Kon Knueppel / Tyrese Proctor 83
T-9 Mark Sears /Max Shulga 81
11) Alijah Martin 80
T-12) Rasheer Fleming / Will Richard 79
14) Maxime Raynaud 77

Prospects who ranked best in both passing and scoring:

Kam Jones, Nique Clifford, Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, Walter Clayton Jr., Javon Small, Mark Sears, Johni Broome, Tre Johnson, Collin Murray-Boyles, Kasparas Jakucionis, Max Shulga, Kon Knueppel, Danny Wolf, Jeremiah Fears, VJ Edgecombe, Alijah Martin, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins

Prospects who ranked best in all three of passing, scoring, and shooting:

Alijah Martin, Cooper Flagg, Danny Wolf, Dylan Harper, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins, Javon Small, Jeremiah Fears, Johni Broome, Kam Jones, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kobe Sanders, Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Mark Sears, Max Shulga, Tre Johnson, Tyrese Proctor, VJ Edgecombe, Walter Clayton Jr., Will Riley

Poetic to see former Creighton teammates bookending these scoring creator stats with Ryan Nembhard leading all prospects in Floor General Skills by a mile and Ryan Kalkbrenner dominating yet another category, this time in Pure Scoring Prowess.

Players who rank highly in Scoring but not shooting or passing could be promising play-finishers, like Kalkbrenner, Eric Dixon, Vlad Goldin

Players who rank highly in 3pt shooting and Passing could be good offensive connectors, if not better, such as those who rate 65 or higher in both FGS and 3PE:
Walter Clayton Jr., VJ Edgecombe, Sion James, Ryan Nembhard, Max Shulga, Mark Sears, Kobe Sanders, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Dylan Harper, Danny Wolfl, Cooper Flagg

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Defense/Hustle/At The Rim

Some promising Defense/Hustle/Rim Stats are deflections, blocks, steals, rebounds, charges, loose ball recoveries, shot contests, and fouls.

These next two data viz show the Best Defensive 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data utliziing stats like these for At The Rim (ATR), Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI), and Overall Impact (C-RAM).

This first visualization shows a player’s overall impact by circle size, defensive impact vertically focusing on steals, blocks, fouls, rebounds, and at the rim impact horizontally which accounts for rebounding, blocks, and 2P%.

bigger circle = better Overall Impact (C-Ram)

the same data by position:
better Defensive Statistical Impact = bigger square // better At The Rim = darker color

Top Prospects in At The Rim (ATR):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 87
2) Johni Broome 85
T-3) Khaman Maluach / Maxime Raynaud 82
T-5) Danny Wolf / Rasheer Fleming 80
T-7 Collin Murray-Boyles / Thomas Sorber 79
T-9 Amari Williams / Derik Queen / Nique Clifford / Vladislav Goldin 78
T-13 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 77

Top Prospects in Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 101
2) Johni Broome 97
3) Thomas Sorber 95
4) Chris Manon 94
5) Rasheer Fleming 91
T-6) Cooper Flagg / VJ Edgecombe 90
T-8 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 88
T-10) Collin Murray-Boyles / Adou Thiero / Max Shulga 87
14) Alijah Martin 86
T- 15) Will Richard / Maxime Raynaud 85

With some overlap in these two defensive statistics, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Johni Broome rank 1 and 2 respectively in both. Multiple first round prospects rank highly in both, including Thomas Sorber, Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, VJ Edgecombe, Collin Murray Boyles, and Rasheer Fleming.

Chris Manon, VJ Edgecombe, Max Shulga, Alijah Martin, Will Richard rank Top-5 in DSI among guards. Nique Clifford ranks 78 in At The Rim activity while every other guard ranks 70 or below.

The NBA Combine provides measurables on most prospects like height, wingspan, weight that can be used to compare size, reach, and effective length.

I created a Data Viz of the 2025 NBA Draft Prospects by their Wingspan/Height Plus Minus compared with their Stocks Per Foul rate, where Stocks = STL + BLK

Top-5 Wingspan/Height Plus Minus

+9 Cedric Coward / Rasheer Fleming
+8.75 Thomas Sorber
+7 Amari Williams
+6.75 Drake Powell

Top-5 Stocks Per Foul

2.29 Ryan Kalkbrenner
1.58 Thomas Sorber
1.46 Cooper Flagg
1.45 Johni Broome
1.29 Alex Toohey

*Note, Cerebro Sports, CBB Analytics, and NBA Combine Data only consists of NCAA Players. International players data is from Basketball Reference.

With the 25th pick in the first round and the 46th and 57th picks in the second round of the 2025 NBA Draft, prospects and picks galore in the war chest, and young talent on good contracts filling up the roster, the Magic’s options this off-season feel endless. That doesn’t always end up translating to something big happening, but Orlando’s process keeps them prepared and flexible today and through the future to continually have the option to do something, which is the important part of making big splash trades – to stay ready for opportunities when value can be found.

In the past, Orlando has sold its second round picks for Cash Considerations; unless one or both are dealt in trades, don’t be surprised if that happens again, especially given how little opportunity there is for young prospects on this win-now roster.

One guess would be Orlando sells off one or both of the second round picks for cash. Another option could be packaging the 25th with the 2nd rounders to trade out of the draft for futrue assets or move up in the draft if there’s one particular prospect target in mind and they feel good about landing him at a slightly higher slot.

The Top-60 Prospects ranked below in tier are viewed as the same level as all prospects within the same tier, but factors like team/situation/role come into play as the tie-breaker. These players are ranked as such for this Magic team based on need, fit, opportunity, investment, and mostly just trying to answer questions like…

Which prospect has the most potential and the best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

Which prospect can help this team win now and in the future *and* fit within the current roster construction over the long haul the best?

The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board

Tier 1a – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: All-Star/All-Defense

1. Cooper Flagg
   The Runaway #1 Pick for a reason, Flagg is the most versatile basketball prospect this game has seen since LeBron.
   
   Any team can ask Cooper to do just about anything, and Flagg will either be good, great, or elite at it, able to slide into a multitude of different roles on both ends. An all-time great defensive prospect with Montverde at the high school level went on to produce an all-time great offensive season in his one and only year with Duke at the collegiate level.
   
   The Magic would obviously love to add a star like Flagg, who projects to play like a Supercharged Franz, and maybe even the one true Swish Army Knife of them all.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 1b – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: Offensive Engine/All-Star
   
2. Dylan Harper
   
   Harper would be taken more seriously in #1 pick talks in just about any other draft class. Dylan looks like a primary scoring creator, a true offensive engine for a team with the dynamic athleticism to give one hopes of positive defensive development. Harper’s a walking bucket tall point-guard who any team would love to have star in their backcourt operating the offense going forward.
   
   Orlando would be lucky to add a natural scoring creator point guard like Harper with how much talent they already have; after news of San Antonio being open to moving the #2 pick, should The Magic seriously look to to secure Harper as the third star to run the show? After trading for Bane, this feels highly unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 2 – Ceiling: Offensive Engine/All-Star, Defensive Anchor/All-Defense, Floor: High End Starter
   
3. Danny Wolf
   
   Many times this season, Wolf was a one-man offense for Dusty May’s Michigan team, as we discussed on the Learning Basketball Podcast.
   
   Running P&R as a near 7ft ball-handler with powerful rim-roller Vlad Goldin (#36 on this board) provides a proof of theory offensive role that will translate to the league. Danny ran 231 pick-and-rolls as his team’s ball-handler where his 0.94 PPP on P&R including passes ranked in the 65th percentile among all players.
   
   Shooting:
   33% 3P% on 51 Pull-Up 3PA
   34% 3P% on 62 C&S 3PA
   37% 3P% on 30 guarded C&S 3PA
   58% 2P% on 207 Layups
   
   Synergy Scoring Playtpes
   1.14 PPP on 43 Putbacks
   1.09 PPP on 44 Cuts
   1.03 PPP on 31 ISOs (82nd Percentile)
   1.02 PPP on 66 Spot Ups
   0.94 PPP on 33 P&R Roll Man
   
   Danny Wolf is a versatile scorer, a good shooter on and off the ball, an offensive orchestrator who can run either end of a pick-and-roll or spot-up off of a pick-and-pop or space the floor off a drive, a potential offensive playmaking hub who can initiate a team’s offense as a primary scoring creator option. Wolf’s sound footwork, big size, impressive mobility should help him hold his own on defense guarding big 4s and small 5s.
   
   Plus defender, great passer, good shooter, tight handle, two-way feel, unique style, special talent, at 6’11”.
   
   Orlando adding a versatile scoring big man who can run point guard duties and threaten defenses from deep would fill almost all the needs for this offense, freeing up the backcourt to continue to be filled with 3pt shooting scorers and defensive connectors between Bane, Suggs, and AB.
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. Tre Johnson
   
   Tre just posted one of the best shooting seasons any prospect has shown in years. His shot profile is as efficient and versatile as they come. His handle is tight enough to help him get to his spots and create any shot he wants, which he usually can make. His solid feel when defenses send help has shown promising playmaking skills to create for others off of the scoring gravity he brings. This combination could become a lethal scorer with passing chops as a primary option.
   
   Between Tre’s shooting/scoring gravity, the spacing he would breathe into Orlando’s offense, is just about the best possible fit the offense could ask for, someone who draws two on the ball, can hit the open three, and can make good reads to set up others.
   
   After adding Bane, trading up for Tre or anyone who isn’t more of a traditional point guard or D&3 big seems unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Kon Kneuppel
   
   Arguably the most complete offensive guard in the class, Kon’s combination of ball-skills from his handle, vision, shooting touch on and off ball, feel running the offense, ability to operate high volume of pick-and-rolls, should create a sum-of-its parts scoring creator at any level, a reliable offensive engine for any team.
   
   The biggest question mark will be defensively, if Kon can hold his own, but the toughness at his size is promising, the will to win is certainly there.
   
   Flanking Kon with plus-defenders where he’s the worst defender on the floor would be ideal, and elite team defenses like Orlando or Houston could use an offensive engine to make the halfcourt flow hum a little smoother.
   
   
   
   
6. VJ Edgecombe
   
   Outlier athlete who will be one of the NBA’s best athletes on Day 1, incredible defensive playmaker, unstoppable first step downhill burst, promising 3pt shooting development, improved decision-maker as season went on. This uber athlete with a high two-way 3&D floor and intriguing potential as a drive-and-kick scoring threat is a prospect any team would like to take a swing on.
   
   VJ would slide right into Orlando’s elite defensive turnover-forcing culture, and only be asked to hit the 3ball and run some secondary offense, allowing him to grow into his own as an on-ball threat and utilizing his off-ball skills immediately.
   
   
   
   
   
   This back half of the lottery is around where the fit in Orlando starts to get murky. Since this range of prospects are likely to be selected Top-14, Orlando would want to stay away from this 7-14 draft range if they deemed someone in a lower tier of prospect to be a better fit for this Magic team, like Walter Clayton Jr. or Jeremiah Fears. They would theoretically want to trade down from the back half of the lottery to secure them, or in reality probably have to trade up from 25.
   
   
7. Noa Essengue
   
   The downhill force forward with graceful footwork has shown an impressive development curve at one of the youngest ages in the draft class. Already showing defensive versatilty with high-impact in many facets, and transition tenacity as an off-ball mover in fast breaks, rebounds, and cuts, the question remains is how much brighter can Noa’s ever-growing star get.
   
   Can he refine the halfcourt on-ball skills to become a true two-way assassin? Could he define a handful of go-to moves for himself to at least score consistently in addition to his defense and fast break fuel?
   
   His potential is sky-high if he continues developing at this rate. In Orlando, the fit would be tough to find minutes at forward without a 3pt shot, but the energy would be appreciated on any team. Filling a role as a play-finishing center until he develops more ball-skills would be interesting to see play out here; maybe he can become a point-center in transition along with a playfinisher in the halfcourt.
   
   
   
   
8. Asa Newell
   
   Newell offers one of the more stable packages of any draft prospect: a lengthy big wing defender who can switch 3-5, use his high-point athletic gifts to block shots at the rim and time up offensive rebounds, and hit the open catch-and-shoot threes out of pick-and-pop, with the ability to attack closeouts with post-up counter-move footwork.
   
   Newell could slide into Orlando’s front court depth as a capable small-ball 5 or backup 4, a versatile defender who can hit the open three and provide two-way winning impact around the rim and on the glass.
   
   Asa’s defensive versatility, 3pt shooting, offensive rebounds impress most, and he also proved to be an efficient scorer off those putbacks on a high volume of scoring as a lead option for Georgia.
   
   
   
   
9. Khaman Maluach
   
   The most efficient rim-finisher the college game has seen… ever? Maluach lobs are automatic alley-oops. Khaman has great hands catching lob passes, though sometimes struggles with tougher passes inside the paint. He shows shooting touch potential to develop as a pick-and-pop threat, and otherwise is a lethal rim-roller right away. Defensively a smart big man, uses hands and strength effectively, and has potential to be elite on that end as well.
   The defense and rim-rolling would be bring a defined two-way role, but the 3pt shooting development could be a big holdup to his playing time. Khaman would bring two-way winning impact without the jumper just as a rim-rolling defensive anchor, so that alone is worth a look next to Orlando’s creators.
   
   Khaman has the highest offensive rebounde percentage of the class while also rating well in Hakeem %, which combines Block % and Steal % to essentially show what percentage of a team’s turnovers any given player forced.
   
   
   
   
10. Thomas Sorber
    
    Thomas Sorber is an absolute tank.
    Sorber’s smoothie of size, skills, smarts blends into an incredibly intimidating presence that could one day anchor an NBA defense and offer a connective playmaking hub on offense.
    
    Sorber’s 2025 NBA Draft Rank Tank Bonafides:
    
    #1 Body Weight (263)
    #2 Stocks Per Foul (+1.58)
    #3 in Wingspan/Height +/- (+8.75)
    
    Thomas Sorber ranks 3rd in DSI and 7th in ATR via Cerebro., making him one of the top defensive prospects in the class.
    
    Sorber’s cerebral two-way feel for the game wreaks havoc defensively, protects the rim as a defensive anchor, and brings a postup playmaking hub on the offense end. Without a 3pt shot, it would be challenging to win minutes on the Magic, but Thomas Sorber’s potential as a defensive anchor down low is too much to deny.
    
    
    
    
11. Collin Murray-Boyles
    
    CMB shows incredible defensive instincts, two-way feel for the game, graceful downhill strides as powerful 4/small 5 defensive playmaker. A head of steam often opens up Collin’s drives to the rack, with good feel to make smart reads and playmaking vision to execute the passes.
    
    Murray Boyles’ defensive mind is what stands out for him as a prospect, his ability to use his big hands to perfectly time up deflections, force stops, and then grab and go downhill off the turnover.
    
    The fit in Orlando is not great with Paolo at the 4 and CMB’s lack of perimeter shooting, but as a small 5 and backup 4 he would certainly be a winning player on almost any team, despite the worrisome jump shot mechanics.
    
    
    
    
12. Ace Bailey
    
    Bailey is a tough-shot making big wing 3pt sniper who flashes defensive potential. While the unrefined handle and lack of playmaking vision is worrisome as a primary initator for team offense, Bailey’s shooting ability, rebounding activity, and defensive athleticism should all still translate to the next level.
    
    Ace in Orlando’s frontcourt would provide a capable 3pt shooter to stretch the floor, an glass-cleaning rebounder, and potentially an impactful big wing help defender. If Bailey’s able to create his own shot without needing the handle, the two-way potential as a D&3 Big Wing Scorer rises even higher, but that may require outlier development.
    
    
    
    
    
13. Derik Queen
    
    A one-of-a-kind tank big who uses size and graceful strides to finesse his way to the rack like the a bull in a china shop who somehow didn’t break a single dish. Queen’s passing flashes are impressive, showing incredible vision for a player his size, and a handle good enough to help create advantages on the go.
    
    With Paolo in Orlando, the fit for Queen may be tough due to some overlaps in skillsets that aren’t additive to each other, similarly to CMB, but talent can sometimes find a way. Perhaps having either one on the floor at all times could carve out a role as a small-5 or backup-4, and certainly help replicate the offense when Paolo is out due to injury.
    
    Queen’s defensive effort, maximizing his athleticism, and working on the perimeter jumpshot are question marks, but who’s to say Queen can’t become a high-volume foul-drawing downhill force playmaking hub who can score at the rim and create paint-and-spray offense for any team?
    
    The downhill force of players like Collin Murray Boyles and Derik Queen can best be captured in a data viz like this one below comparing Points in the Paint and Free Throw Attempts per game, along with other stats like 3pt assists, to show the results of players who successfully penetrate the paint. Players who bend defenses in the paint are able to attack the rim, draw fouls, and kickout for threes or throw lobs at the rim to the man in the dunker spot.
    
    CMB ranks 9th in FTA and 5th in Points in the Paint per gameQueen ranks 8th in FTA and 7th in Points in the Paint per game
    
    
    
    
    Prospects listed 14-22 could all be good fits in Orlando to help bring depth of talent who fill needs and fit the identity. Trading up for a target or sitting and hoping a bpa from this list is there at 25 are fine strategies for good players.
    
    
    Tier 3 – Ceiling: High-End Starter, Floor: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man
    
14. Walter Clayton Jr.
    
    A 3pt sniper point guard who can beat you off screens, handoffs, pullups. Runs the offense as an initiator, slides right into Orlando’s handoff-heavy system, fills the high-volume 3pt shooter on and off ball as a point guard who can run some offense and set up Orlando’s elite frontcourt scorers and depth of play-finishers in the best possible position to succeed using shooting gravity and quick decision making feel.
    
    As for Orlando’s big board needs, Clayton has a case to be ranked as high as 7 here, but I and many others view everyone ranked between 7 and 14 as a higher tier level of nba prospect. This works out for the Magic, however, since Orlando doesn’t pick until 25, where Clayton might still be available.
    
    An answer to one of the team’s biggest needs could fall right into their laps.
    
    With the addition of Bane, losing the 16th pick, filling a shooting need, ending up with WCJ is less likely to happen, but not out of the question.
    
    As a draft thought exercise, if they moved up to 7, would they do so just to secure Walter Clayton Jr.? Would they move back to the mid-first range where they were before to select Walter closer to where he’s projected? Or is there someone else listed above they’d target in a trade to move up in the draft, like hoping Tre, Kon, or VJ are still there at 7?
    
    Walter Clayton Jr. ranks in 3rd in 3PA/gm volume and 6th in FT%, two positive indicators for future outside shooting development.
    
    
    
15. Jeremiah Fears
    
    Fears quick first step burst is practically impossible to cut off from penetrating the paint, an elite skill advantage that Fears will need to rely on at the next level, along with his impressive decelerating body control weaving in and out of defenses.
    
    Fears shows the killer pull-up 3pt shot and an uncanny ability to draw fouls on drives with a paint-and-spray attitude at a point guard scoring creator looking for the best shot for his team.
    
    Orlando could use his skill-set immediately, as Fears could slide right into the scoring point guard role for this Magic team. Unfortunately, he’ll likely not be available by pick 25. Could Orlando move back up in the draft to land a Fears or Clayton?
    
    
    
16. Ryan Kalkbrenner
    
    Kalkbrenner provides a stable two-way option late in the first round as a traditional rim-protecting big man who can also step out for three.
    
    Ryan will provide team-first winning impact to just about any squad as a playable rotation big with high two-way impact upside as a 3&D center if the shot proves reliable.
    Kalkbrenner sneakily could solve a big need for Orlando at Center, perhaps finally finding its utility big man to do a lot of things well, protect the rim, rebound, score against postup mismatches, and hit the open three around Orlando’s starting frontcourt of Franz and Paolo.
    
    Kalkbrenner being available at 25 for Orlando would be a steal for a reliable D&3 backup big with two-way starter potential.
    
    Kalkbrenner’s 2025 NBA Draft Ranks
    #1 Stocks Per Foul (+2.29)
    #4 Body Weight (257 lbs)
    T-#26th in Wingspan/Height +/- (+5 in)
    
    
    
    
    
17. Cedric Coward
    
    Tied with Rasheer Fleming for having the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (+9 in!), Cedric brings the lengthy measureables to the equation as a 6’5” guard 3pt specialist, a classic energetic D&3 archetype who slides right into a two-way role for any team.
    
    Orlando can’t have enough two-way floor-spacers around its star scorers, especially filling up the backcourt rotation, as KCP and Gary Harris have shown filling D&3 roles through previous seasons. Cedric could be a clean fit to replace that role in the long term for this team as a high-end two-way starter or positive impact role player, though Bane’s addition might prove playmaking and big man needs to be more dire.
    
    
    
    
18. Jase Richardson
    
    Versatile scorer with incredible shooting touch and quick processing skills, positive defensive energy, and strong connector capabilities create a strong two-way presence in Jase Richardson.
    
    While reportedly undersized at the combine, Jase could fill many holes for Orlando’s backcourt as a shooter, scorer, plus-defender who makes team-first decisions with the ball, and shares NBA legacy with his brother Jaxon and father Jason “J-Rich, Magic Legend” Richardson.
    
    
    
19. Carter Bryant
    
    Good defensive feel and capable 3pt shooting 6’7” forward with scoring chops could provide any team with a good basketball player who brings two-way impact.
    
    Orlando could use all the good basketball players they can get around its stars, especially if they fill a D&3 role with scoring being gravy on top, adding Carter could be a fine play for role player depth.
    
    
    
    
    
20. Rasheer Fleming
    
    Tied with Cedric Coward for the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (9in !), Rasheer Fleming offers another D&3 prospect, this time as a 6’8” wing.
    
    With Orlando’s frontcourt depth, there might not be much opportunity to develop. However, there’s always room to try D&3 prospects around the team’s creators, and a role could be found with the second unit and as an injury replacement starter when one of the stars go down. With Black, Da Silva, Isaac on the bench, Fleming does bring a different 3&D dynamic, but would have to compete for playing time.
    
    
    
    
21. Liam McNeeley
    
    High school hoops legend with a knockdown 3pt shot and the aggressive mentality to dunk on drives when attacking closeouts. Liam could fill a role as a 3pt shooter off the ball and a shooting threat off handoffs and screens, someone who can reboudn, handle, and pass well enough to keep the ball moving and make the right decision for the team, and even initiate some offense as a secondary creator at times.
    
    Orlando would be a clean fit for the 3pt shooter as a 6th man who spread the floor, attacks closeouts, runs a few DHOs/P&Rs, and mostly spreads the floor.
    
    The defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the functional size is there for Liam (6’7”, 215) to be a big guard who plays with a contagious fire, can light it up from deep, dunk on your head, and excite any crowd with intensity.
    
    
    
    
    
22. Nique Clifford
    
    If scoring versatility is the game, Nique Clifford is the name. Clifford can beat defenses in a multitude of ways to put the ball in the rack rather efficiently. He can provide plus-defense for his team on and off the ball. He’s a walking bucket who put himself on the map at Colorado.
    
    With Orlando drafting Tristan Da Silva last year, and Nique bringing similar scoring versatility to the table, maybe that’s a sign that he’s a good target as a potential backup 2-guard to Bane, since you can’t really have enough good basketball players who can score in a variety of ways, make big defensive plays, and make team-first decisions with the ball.
    
    An all-around portfolio, Nique Clifford ranks 4th in PSP, 9th in FGS, and 1st amongst guards in At The Rim.
    
    
    
    
23. Kasparas Jakučionis
    
    A tall point-guard pick-and-roll assassin with a go-to stepback pull-up three who uses body control, fundamental footwork, and impressive finishing at the rim to draw defenders into the paint for kickouts, whistles, and shots at rim. Kasparas can help generate offense on a whim.
    
    While Orlando has Franz in place filling a highly similar role, it’s not actually the worst idea to have a backup Franz in case of emergency. Kasparas is much smaller, but brings a similar playstyle that would help replicate Orlando’s offensive identity whether Franz shares the court or not.
    
    With both being better on pull-ups than catch-and-shoots, they might be better staggered, but that could provide Orlando with one reliable “point-forward” at all times. Despite that, the lack of defense and C&S 3pt shot make this a questionable fit.
    
    
    
    
24. Noah Penda
    
    An energetic defensive play-finisher that moves around the court so frenetically he looks like he snuck a diet Dew into his pregame Gatorade bottle, Penda is a strong playfinisher, smart connective passer, and active off-ball mover, rebounder, defender.
    
    Penda will likely be a high-end starter for a winning team, even if its as the 5th starter piece of the perfectly balanced lineup, but the lack of offensive juice could limit his lineup options in Orlando, providing a tough opportunity to develop.
    
    Could he be in winning lineups? Yes. Would he be able to play with Franz and Paolo as the longterm C? Maybe not. A winning depth piece that could be a value pick depending on the slot, but might be a tough fit for playing time in a crowded Orlando frontcourt. As a longterm backup 4 plug-and-play big, there is potential here for Penda’s play-finishing.
    
    
    
    
25. Adou Theiro
    
    Explosive NBA athlete who forces turnovers everywhere defnsively as a dynamic 6’6” wing who flies off the page anytime he opens a book. Raw offense but shows enough all-around potential to carve out a two-way role with patient development. Energetic defense, fast break missile launches, espn top-10 slams should quickly make him an exciting household name for fans.
    
    While the upside would be an intriguing upside play, its hard to see his opportunity to develop with the starting unit in Orlando. If he’s got the highest ceiling available at 25, maybe the team takes a swing on talent the later the draft goes, but finding a player who can fill roles and needs for this Magic team that just made moves to win now should take priority.
    
    
    
    
    Tier 4 – Ceiling: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man, Floor: Fringe Rotation Player
    
26. Will Riley
    
    Raw intriguing talent as as 3pt shooter and connective passer who can make impact plays off ball and who rated highly in BPM throughout the season, even overtaking Kasparas some in ball duties for Illinois as the season went on.
    
    This would be a dice roll on talent, impact, upside for Orlando, which isn’t a bad choice this late in the draft. While one could attempt to address a need at PG, C, or general shooting, this is a bet on talent, in-house development. Since Orlando has stated win-now goals, this idea is less likely to happen than the team taking one of the shooters or play-finishers over the next stretch, but hitting on an exciting 3pt connector late in the draft could be a huge swing for the Magic.
    
    
    
27. Javon Small
    
    A tough small guard who does just about everything well, Small has earned a look to be an NBA rotation guard, and few players fit the ilk of Orlando’s team identity better.
    
    Small gives no ground defensively, can guard multiple positions from the backcourt, and then he can turn around and initiate offense as the point guard running different playtypes, hit the jumper on and off the ball from deep, and score within different playtypes as well.
    
    Versatile scoring creator, capable 3pt shooter, and positive impact defender is just the type of guard Orlando covets around its stars.
    
    With Bane’s arrival to a backcourt already featuring Suggs, Small would make an interesting understudy to them both.
    
    
    
    
    
    
28. Sion James
    
    NBA Athlete who filled his role so well it expanded as the Duke season went on.
    
    Attacks closeouts, provides effort hustle plays defensively, at 6’6” can play 1-3 with tenacious on-ball defense, has a quick first step burst and explosive verticality and good feel for where to be and what to do.
    
    Sion could immediately help a winning team filling a small role, and in Orlando he’d get to do just that. Capable C&S 3pt shooter who can bend the defense, penetrate the paint, keep the ball moving, and defend his own would be more than welcome in O-Town.
    
    
    
    
    
    
29. Kam Jones
    
    Versatile old-school scoring guard who can get buckets, get in the paint, get to the line, and get his teammates open. Questionable defender at the next level, but the buckets should look smooth doing it.
    
    Kam could address some of Orlando’s offensive woes, while Orlando’s elite team defense could cover up some of Kam’s defensive holes. The Magic could add one of college basketball’s best scorers last year late in the first round or potentially even in the second round, where either way Jones could fill a role as a scorer, shooter, connective passer, and secondary playmaker creating offense for the team.
    
    Kam has the best combination of AST% and TO% of any draft prospect:
    
    
    
30. Nolan Traore
    
    Traore’s combination of quick first step burst, connective playmaking, defensive footwork, and perimeter shooting flashes earned him the nod here for the 30th spot on this Magic-centric big board over prospects like Koby Brea’s 3pt shooting and Vlad Goldin’s sound rim-protecting rim-rolling presence, or the two-way high floor throwback scoring of Johni Broome.
    
    If The Magic are taking gambles this late in the draft, maybe they should take a swing on a shooter like Brea who might launch 8 3PA per game one day? If the team wants two-way winning players to fill out the rotation to help compete today, a bet on Broome, Traore, or Goldin is probably better.
    
    Both choices depend on how many picks Orlando keeps (down to 3), how much contribution they expect from rookies right away (probably a lot), and what kind of risks the team is willing to take when it comes being patient with draft picks compared to the value of adding more proven talent through other avenues of team-building. (Bane says its time to win)
    
    
    
31. Johni Broome
32. Ben Saraf
33. Vlad Goldin
34. Maxime Raynaud
35. Hansen Yang
36. Koby Brea
37. Mark Sears
38. Egor Demin
39. Amari Williams
    
    Tier 5 – Ceiling: Raw Potential NBA Pro, Floor: International Pro
40. Joan Beringer
41. Eric Dixon
42. Chaz Lanier
43. Drake Powell
44. Jamir Watkins
45. Arthur Kaluma
46. RJ Luis Jr.
47. Max Shulga
48. Alijah Martin
49. Ryan Nembhard
50. Tyrese Proctor
51. Alex Toohey
52. Yanic Konan Niederhauser
53. Hugo Gonzalez
54. Dink Pate
55. Rocco Zikarsky
56. Kobe Sanders
57. Hunter Sallis
58. Will Richard
59. John Tonje
60. Chris Manon

So – which prospect has the most potential and best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando, given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Orlando keeps at least two of its three picks, both in the range of its current slots (25 + 46-57)

As of today, 13 players have been invited to the NBA Green Room for Draft night, with expectations to be selected relatively high, and Noa Essengue likely to receive an invite once he finishes playing overseas.

Those 13 Green Room names (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell) are likely to be taken by the 25th overall pick where Orlando sits, but that might not be a bad thing for every name here, and there’s always a few surprise names who slip every year.

The ideal players slipping among this group (other than Flagg) would be skilled scorers like Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel, or the explosive defender VJ Edgecombe, but that was much likelier to possibly happen at 16, not 25.

With his quick first step burst, 3pt shooting potential, natural point guard feel, Jeremiah Fears is one of the more interesting names to watch if he’s still available at the 25th slot, but another to unlikely be available outside of the lottery.

Later in the mid-first round draft range, prospects like Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Carter Bryant, and Cedric Coward could all fit nicely in Orlando’s backcourt. All these guards space the floor and offer varying levels of scoring, defense, and shooting skills, which all help balance out and contribute quickly to Orlando’s paint-and-spray big wing attack. Nique Clifford another name to watch as a scorer, passer, and plus-defender.

If Danny Wolf is still available, that’s the big name to watch for Orlando: A point-center/forward (✓), a 3pt shooter on and off ball (✓), with size and footwork to guard big 4s and small 5s (✓), who shows incredibly unique two-way feel for the game at nearly 7ft tall (✓) , and is, you guessed it, a Michigan Man. (✓)

Wolf is a proven offensive orchestrator who can run pick-and-rolls with ease, slide into the short-roll playmaker on the next set, spread the floor for three the next possession, and play connector playmaking hub the next play. The Magic need a point-something who can hit the open three, play connector next to the stars, yet also initiate the offense so those stars don’t have to every time down the floor. Finding a unique big man who can fill those roles in an already formidable frontcourt and 1-4 starting unit set would be a worthwhile experiment on a high-risk high-reward high-feel high-potential swing.

Another name that makes too much sense for the Orlando Magic if he’s sitting there at 25?

UF’s own NCAA Champion, Walter Clayton Jr., who has as worthy of a case as just about any prospect to be this Magic team’s primary target.

Clayton lights up the gym from deep like its nothing, an efficient high-volume 3pt sniper who can shoot on and off ball, run some P&R offense, and flow right into Orlando’s handoff heavy system, fitting seamlessly with a big shot pedigree that may even remind one of Jalen Suggs.

A huge value play at 25 would be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the smart rim-protecting presence out of Creighton who flashes C&S 3pt shooting potential as a pick-and-pop rim-rolling threat. Orlando’s constant hunt for its longterm reliable big man continues, and a potential D&3 bet could be a nice play for a 3pt shooting shot-swatting big man that can be harder to find that one might think.

Assuming all the names above are off the board, then a few late-first round/fringe second round targets to watch could be complete role players: guards like Kam Jones, Javon Small, and Nolan Traore; bigs like Vlad Goldin, Wolf’s Michigan teammate and strong rim-rolling rim-protector, or intriguing big man playmakers Maxime Raynaud and Hansen Yang.

Some of the above names could slip to Orlando’s late second round slots, but given the lack of depth in this class due to all the NIL dropouts, its no guarantee. Packaging two seconds or the 25th pick to move around in the draft, maybe to an earlier second round pick to secure the guy you want and add a future pick is always good value play for a team that just needs to leave this draft with one good basketball player somewhere between 25-57. Even moving back from 25 to the 30s wouldn’t lose much potential value on a pick, especially if the team can use good process to add a future pick on top of it.

With Orlando’s final pick(s) in the 45-57 range, if none of the players listed above are available, the Magic could take a swing on a backup point guard like Mark Sears or Ryan Nembhard, or a potential 3pt shooter like Koby Brea, Arthur Kaluma, Eric Dixon, Chaz Lanier or Tyrese Proctor

Orlando Magic Draft Targets Within Range:

25
Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton Jr., Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jeremiah Fears, Nique Clifford, Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Cedric Coward, Carter Bryant, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Nolan Traore, Vlad Goldin, Johni Broome


45-57
anyone listed above who is still available + Hansen Yang, Maxime Raynaud, Eric Dixon, Koby Brea, Mark Sears, Ryan Nembhard, Chaz Lanier, Arthur Kaluma, Tyrese Proctor


After the Bane trade, it seems less likely that Orlando will invest in another 2-guard; however, with Gary Harris and Jett Howard as the lone SG depth on the roster, maybe finding a high-end two-way wing is still a priority.

The top-2 goals this summer for Orlando now:

1) Target and acquire a long-term starting Center, or a prospect who can become a D&3 big with a little scoring juice
2) Round out rotation with playable depth for a playoff run, between a natural point guard or a 2/3 size wing who can shoot and defend

Of course, the Magic just made their big move. They probably don’t feel pressure to do anything else if they feel this roster is ready to contend already, but if any question remains about the shooting, the center play, the depth, paths to upgrade exist.

Magic fans have been counting down the days for something big to happen like this for years; a consolidation trade to bring this team closer to contending. The team made its goals clear: proven offensive talent was needed, and acquired.

They took their big swing to first address this need by dishing out four first rounders, a pick swap,, Cole + KCP for Bane.

Are the Magic finished making moves?

Maybe Orlando somehow trades into the Top-10 for Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, or Kon Knueppel to help balance the offense, but now that the team has packaged some picks and rotation players for a more proven offensive talent, it seems likelier the team will stay put at 25 to target a good player on a rookie deal, or package its picks to move around the draft for their target.

When it comes to draft night trades, there are plenty of reasons to make deals.

Here’s 5:

1) Front offices are filled with humans, and deadliens create urge for humans. Teams wait for dates like the trade deadline and draft night to make moves for many reasons, one being to evaluate every possible deal and ounce of leverage before settling on a trade packge. But on those nights, anything can happen – some teams are on edge, some desperate, some excited to make a splash, whether that be a big draft night selection or a midnight trade to excite fans with something new over the off-season; as draft day approaches, unpredictable chaos and impulse decisions await.

2) Consensus big boards allow teams to view draft slot ranges where prospects are most expected to land between, so given the knowledge of other team needs/connections/identity, this opens up opportunities to trade up in the draft to secure a coveted prospect, or move back in the draft to add draft capital if your coveted prospect isn’t likely to be considered anytime around the slot you currently possess.

3) Trading out of the draft for additional future picks is almost always a good decision, even if taking on salary to do so. This generally smart draft process acquires extra draft capital for the price of today’s, just because other teams (owners) generally prefer to have the draft pick *that* night, and are willing to pay extra to do it.

4) Pre-agency: Star players, draft picks, and every nba player in between share the same agencies; all sides talk every possibility long before they happen. If a team believes a major splash is available, their best chance to take the dive is on draft night, the last night where the picks posses the most value they’ll ever have because that pick can still potentially be *anything*, before the car is driven off the lot and becomes an actual player the next day, losing value just by going from potential to reality.

5) Christmas Morning: Fans love a good trade, a fresh face, a new name to see on posters, sides of buildings, tv commercials. Draft Day should be a national holiday, as watching the first team go On The Clock feels like waking up on Christmas Morning, where any team’s fans can still get any gift. Few feelings are as fun for a fan like watching a midnight move go down or a surprise draft pick get made (#ThankYouBane), but few feelings are as sad for fans as seeing their favorite players sent out the door. (#RIPOrlandipo)

The Magic went into the summer shopping these trade pieces first:

Draft Picks: 16, 25, 45, 57, PHX 2026 Swap, Future 1sts
Prospects like Tristan Da Silva and Jett Howard
Rotation Players on Good Contracts like Jonathan Isaac, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Goga Bitadze

I would have bet a combination of 16, 25, Tristan Da Silva, Cole Anthony, and Jonathan Isaac or some mix of good role players on good salaries would be enough of well-rounded offer to pry one of these proven talents away from a rebuilding team.

Turns out the Magic could keep Black, Suggs, Da Silva, Isaac, 25 if they just sent out 4 future first rounders that have a good chance to be in the back half of the first round.


Magic Fans’ prayers have been answered.

Desmond Bane instantly provides Orlando with the high-volume 3pt sniper they’ve always wanted, a tough defender, a team-first connector passer who can run some offense and score in a variety of ways.

Suggs – Bane – Franz – Paolo – Wendell – Black – Da Silva – Isaac – Goga

Orlando’s got a young prime rotation to build around, an elite defense, two stars, five ball-handlers, and multiple all-defensive candidates too boot.

Now the team just needs to dot some ‘i’s, cross some ‘t’s, and hopefully draft another exciting prospect to add to the deep young core like Walter Clayton Jr., Danny Wolf, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Cedric Coward, Javon Small, on draft night

I guess we’ll just have to wait and find out what happens next on June 25th at 8:00pm EST.

The 2025 NBA Draft Countdown Clock BEGINS!

The post The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Milan Momcilovic’s absence from all mainstream mock drafts and boards perplexes me. After a freshman year where the 6’8 forward proved himself an elite shotmaker, he’s positioned well to make a run at the 2025 draft for an elite Iowa State team.

The shotmaking numbers are gaudy — 36.1% from three on 8.8 attempts per 100, a 49.9 three-point attempt rate, 80.9% on free-throws and 45.6% (68-149) on long two-pointers. The only other 6’8+ freshman to match Momcilovic’s shooting production was Lauri Markkanen.

The eye test reflects these numbers, as Momcilovic sprints off of movement from NBA range, pulls up off of the dribble and feathers in Dirk-inspired fadeaways in the intermediate. Very few shooters his height and age compare to Momcilovic. That alone is worth something in an NBA where teams regard shooting so highly.

Momcilovic’s athletic translation will be the primary question for his NBA outlook. He’s fairly slow on both ends without much explosion or bend, evidenced by his poor athletic indicators (1.0% steal rate, 20.1 free-throw rate, zero dunks). We rarely see players with physical indicators this poor make the NBA.

Despite those major problems, Momcilovic defends at a positive level in college. His footspeed might limit his effectiveness on the perimeter at the next level, but he’s a stellar team defender who always positions himself to close gaps and help at the basket. That same feel manifests on offense, as Momcilovic is an effective secondary playmaker off of his shooting gravity.

We shouldn’t let imperfect statistical history blind us to outlier talent, and that’s what Milan Monmcilovic’s shotmaking is. I’ve never scouted a freshman prospect with these kind of extreme, outlier strengths and weaknesses. I’m willing to bet on Momcilovic’s unique traits and hope for physical development as his body matures, but he’ll be a fascinating case to track throughout the season.

Matt Powers – Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Xaivian Lee needs to improve to become an NBA player, and perhaps significantly so. This is not ideal for a rising junior in a minor conference, but I believe there are reasons for trusting Lee to do just that.

First, Lee is young for his grade, as only 20 years old. This is important as he is still on the steep side of the aging curve, if not as steep as ages 18 to 19 or 19 to 20. This is also important because Lee’s biggest flaw, without a doubt, is being only 165 pounds at most recent measurement.

Adding that weight will elevate the stellar craft and technique we’ve already seen Lee display on a regular basis. It’s good he’s in the Ivy league where he has room to fully experiment despite the lack of weight, as he’s able to create large margins in which to operate with his elite shiftiness.

Lee had more drives than any of the 2023 drafted NCAA guards. While this is surely aided tremendously by the poor competition, I can defend the stat still in a few ways. 1.) The degree of outperformance, 67% higher than his peers’ averages, 2.) His performance kept up against higher comp. In fact, he even played better inside the arc (50% -> 55% from two) and nearly led the conference in RAPM versus top 100 competition. 3.) He tested very well at the G League Elite Camp, taller than expected (6’2.75” without shoes, acceptable for a point guard), among the best at agility testing and showing off a surprising 36.5” max vertical.

Now, let’s get to the actual basketball. Lee is a dribble-pass-shoot guard who also blocked more shots (14, a lot for 6’2.75”) than all of Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Rob Dillingham and KJ Simpson combined. He plays more physically than your everyday slight guard, also excelling on the defensive glass where he was second on the team in rebounds. He seems closer to a very good shooter than an elite one, with 34% from three, 80% from the line, 34% from midrange and 62% at the rim splits. But every one of those is improved from the year before, and, again, there is reason to believe he will grow beyond. The rim finishing in particular is very promising, in the 82nd percentile for layup efficiency on 11 layup attempts per 100 possessions.

Additionally, Lee’s technique is very strong. He is a weapon both on and off ball due to masterclasses (for age) of timing, footwork, deception, hand movements. His top play types showcase that, being above average efficiency in the following actions: spot up (119 possessions), PNR handler (88), handoffs (66), isolation (62), transition (55), cut (30). That’s a healthy diet you can plug and play into any offensive style. This play style flexibility is only enhanced by his sense of experimentation.

Technique, combined with age, is latent value. It is the key building block to development that Lee can rely upon time and again. Don’t be surprised if he looks like a first-round pick come December.

Beyond the RK – Jeremy Roach, Baylor

Transferring from Duke with an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to players who competed during the COVID-19 pandemic season, new Baylor guard Jeremy Roach knows how to handle the pressure when the lights shine brightest. With the Blue Devils, Roach started 83% of his 130 games over four seasons, advancing to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the 2nd round in 3 March Madness appearances, bringing the ying in experience to the Baylor backcourt to the yang of the sensational freshman walking onto campus for the first time in VJ Edgecome. With VJ expected to fly around the court as a north-south downhill force of nature out of the gates, what can Baylor fans expect from the other newcomer guard joining the squad this season?

Jeremy Roach, 6’1”, fits the strong mold of Baylor Guard Past with good two-way instincts to make winning plays on defense while staying on attack mode on offense with an efficient all-around game and good feel for running pick-and-roll and ISO sets to create open looks for himself and teammates. Jeremy uses tight ball control handles and sound quick burst body control to beat his initial defender, rise and fire for a jumper, or drive into the paint for a finish at the rim or kickout to the 3pt line. Jeremy’s lethal floater comes in handy as a deadly weapon to keep drop defenses honest when driving at the rim, using mean stop-start hesitation dribble moves, sound hop step footwork, and clean bump-and-finishing packages in the paint to draw AND1 fouls. When Roach catches a rhythm pulling up for tough elbow jumpers and 3pt shots off the dribble, he becomes hard to contain for any defense he faces.

Roach shows effort on the defensive end taking charges, reading passing lanes to jump gaps and use quick hands for deflections, and not giving up on plays by contesting shots from behind even after being beat on the perimeter. Forcing turnovers and flipping fast breaks on their head creates quick and easy 4pt swings for his team. Jeremy will lift his team for entire stretches as everyone feels his presence in every possession on both sides of the floor. In a close win over Xavier on Nov 25, 2022, Jeremy Roach took over in the clutch for Duke as the game slowed down; quieting the crowd at every turn; dominating as on-ball scoring creator; initiating P&R variations with two screeners in Horns and Double-Drag; scoring at all three levels from all over the floor; drilling tough shot after tough shot; showing supreme decision-making feel.

Roach has improved his efficiency across the board in his time in college, nearly cutting his turnover percentage in half over a four year span, with impressive development since his sophomore season, rising from a 32% 3pt shooter in Year 2 to a 43% 3pt shooter on the same number of attempts in Year 4. His overall impact has risen from 0-1 BPM in his first two years to 3.1 BPM as a junior and 7.2 BPM as a senior, with a huge jump on the offensive side to 4.5 OBPM, most likely due to increasing overall efficiency, reducing turnovers, and getting to the line more often.

In his 2023-24 season at Duke, Roach took 32% of his shots at the rim, converting 58% of his 113 FGA in that range. Able to get his shot off from anywhere on the floor, Jeremy spreads his shot attempts out evenly with 33% being 2pt jumpers (116 FGA) and 36% coming from beyond the arc. (126 3PA) Shooting 84% FT% at the line, 43% 3P% from deep, and 59% TS% as a scorer, Roach brings efficient scoring versatility.

Between his smooth floater, efficient shooting at the line and from beyond the arc, defensive instincts, offensive feel, and overall efficient scoring versatility, Jeremy Roach shows many promising touch indicators for future scoring and shooting development while flashing potential two-way impact that could translate to his upcoming final season in college and help him pave a path to the next level, the NBA.

Roshan Potluri – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

I can understand, you’re probably wondering, “I’ve seen him on a couple of mainstream boards where he’s in the late lottery range. Why is Collin Murray-Boyles in a roundtable on the most underrated returners for the 2025 draft class?” Even with the pre-season hype around the sophomore, I believe he is underrated because he should firmly be in the discussion in the top 5 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at why:

Murray-Boyles had an extremely productive season in his first year with the South Carolina Gamecocks, especially for someone who will be 20.03 on draft day: mere months older than incoming freshmen V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Statistically, the production was eye-popping. He was only involved in 45.7% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor, yet he posted a BPM of +9.5 and a RAPM of +6.1 which are high for a freshman. Standing at 6’7″, he is undersized as a center. Despite this, he produced a 61.6 TS%, 12.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 17.1 AST%, and over 20 dunks for the season. Murray-Boyles may be undersized, but he functionally produced on the court to a degree that compares to other high-profile 7-foot freshmen like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, Evan Mobley, and Karl Anthony Towns.

Another example of his statistical excellence: the only freshmen since 2008 to ever record above a 5 BPM, 60 TS%, 15 DREB%, 10 AST%, 2 STL%, and 20 dunks are Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

While the production speaks for itself, what does Collin Murray-Boyles truly excel at and why is that worth a potential top 5 selection? The answer lies in his dominant processing on both sides of the ball.

With his feel, high-level strength, balance, and hand-eye coordination, Murray-Boyles brings tenacious defense at the rim and guarding out in space. He’s able to take away a ballhandler’s breathing space with his combination of stifling length, strength, and ground coverage. Murray-Boyles excels as a rim protector, leveraging his massive standing reach and outstanding hand-eye coordination to effortlessly erase shots at the rim. Whether it’s as the primary anchor or rotating over from the weak side, his presence as the rim is undeniable.

The quick decision-making is apparent on the offensive side of the ball as well. He’s able to spray passes to find advantage situations whether it is out of post-ups or DHOs. Oftentimes, he’s able to open up new scoring opportunities just due to the incredible speed and placement that he delivers these passes with. Murray-Boyles does have his flaws with his shot and his size as a big but he has the pathways to become more of a ballhandler and scale as a forward offensively. His potential as a ballhandler is evident in the high school film, although he’s more reliant on getting to his left as a driver. He struggles with ball control and pick-up points when using his right, but his exceptional strength allows him to carve space on drives, compensating when his handle falls short.

The major question with Murray-Boyles’ NBA projection is his shot. I understand the hesitancy, as he’s only shot five 3’s and 67.4% from the charity stripe in his freshman year. While these numbers are poor, from a projection standpoint Murray-Boyles has improved on his touch numbers year over year and has had more shooting volume in his high school career. For context, he shot 51% from the line at Adidas 3SSB in 2022, 63.2% at Wasatch Academy his senior year, and now in college, that number has risen to 67.4%. He shows great touch on non-rim 2 attempts as well, shooting 41.3% with the Gamecocks. The high school and AAU sample only supplements this idea, shooting 53.5% on 28 runners and hooks the year before college. On tape, there’s good energy transfer and fluidity in the mechanics of his face-up jumpers which is a wide majority of his shooting sample in high school. For a player that’s considered a non-shooting big, Murray-Boyles has taken a moderate number of midrange jumpers between his senior year of high school and final year of AAU shooting 50% inside the arc on 22 attempts.

The complete lack of these jumpers within and beyond the arc at South Carolina can be attributed to his role as a screen and roll big. Murray-Boyles needs to work on improving his volume and touch further, but the growth over the past couple of years in tandem with his impressive hand-eye coordination gives me confidence that he can get to a respectable level by the end of his rookie scale deal in the NBA. 

Overall, Murray-Boyles can be an upper-echelon defender in the NBA with his physical traits and feel, showing signs even as an 18-year-old where he would orchestrate South Carolina’s entire defense from the backline. With his sophomore year at South Carolina, his draft stock will be determined by how his budding offensive skills improve, but with what he’s done so far and his feel for the game, I have no reason to believe he can’t reach those heights in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Larry Golden – Kam Jones, Marquette

In the NBA, the game forever evolves due to teams changing playstyles and other teams trying to copy what the successful teams are doing. In order for teams to meet their most potential they must find players to perform well in different roles pertaining to their team. The key is finding players in the draft that can come in and fit right into certain roles and maybe their skill level allows for a multitude of roles. Kam jones is a player in this upcoming draft that I believe can come into the NBA and make things happen because of his utility both on the ball and off.

Last season Kam Jones shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 239 attempts and 109 of those were off the catch making those at 39.4% clip. His shooting is what will make his life easier in the league while drawing closeouts and getting two-feet in the painted area. When watching Jones play he has a good feel for making the next right connective passing read. When the defense failed to make a rotation or if the rotator was a bit late, Jones made them pay finishing at the rim at a 67% clip. I was a little underwhelmed with his percentage from the mid range area(, but in the nba threes and layups are the goal and he made both of those at a great rate.

Secondary ballhander is the role I really see for Jones at the NBA level who can take on some pick and roll reps on the second side of the floor. Jones was used in pick and roll 43% of his usage and ranked in the 85th percentile. His combination of handle and size for the position allows for him to see the floor a bit better and the handle is tight enough to squeeze through congested spots on the floor.

AJ Carter – Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama

Clifford Omoruyi has been well established as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, anchoring a Rutgers defense that has been top 25 in the country each of the past two years before transferring to Alabama this offseason for his 5th year of college. He’s a classic backline rim protector with good length (6’9 barefoot, 7’6 wingspan), athleticism, and a lean but well built frame that can hold up against physicality. 

Omoruyi uses these physical tools to dominate around the rim defensively, finishing 3rd in the country in block percentage at 12.7% last season (via KenPom). He can occasionally get himself in foul trouble but is for the most part fundamentally sound defensively, prioritizing being in the right position over chasing blocks. Omoruyi is also a very capable P&R defender, having both backline rim protection ability with enough agility to cover ground when asked to play more aggressively. He isn’t what you would classify as a “switch big” but generally holds up well enough when defending in space to not get exploited and has shown flashes defending on an island against smaller guards. Omoruyi is also capable of finishing off possessions as a defensive rebounder, posting a strong DRB% of 23.7% for his college career. 

As good as he is defensively, Cliff’s lack of versatility on the offensive end is what has prevented him from getting serious hype as a draft prospect thus far. He can score around the rim at an adequate level, but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He isn’t a threat to score outside the paint and lacks touch on floaters or push shots. Omoruyi also has a paltry 0.4 AST/TO ratio for his career, and hasn’t really shown any progress in that department across his 4 years in college. It’s worth noting that Rutgers has been mostly abysmal offensively for Omoruyi’s career there, and play finishing centers like him are particularly context dependent, often needing to play off of strong creators to be effective – something Rutgers has sorely lacked. 

There’s a little room for hope that Cliff can show more progress playing in what should easily be the best offensive context of his career at Alabama this season, but for the most part we already know what he is – and there’s nothing wrong with that. The offensive limitations put a cap on the ceiling of what type of NBA prospect he can be, but he’s such a good defensive anchor that the bar he has to reach on the other end is pretty low. With just a little bit of improvement to his skillset you can see the pathway to him being a useful NBA backup center, making Cliff Omoruyi someone worth monitoring as a prospect this season. 

Tyler Wilson – KJ Lewis, Arizona

KJ Lewis is a slashing guard built for playoff basketball. In an NBA that seems to grow taller and shoot better with every summer, the words “slashing guard” and “playoff basketball” don’t feel like they belong in the same sentence. Slashing guard? You couldn’t find a wing who can shoot? Range, in both wingspan and scoring threat, has become the conventional draft ethos of the modern day. With that said, might I interest you in a Strong Safety instead?

The sell with KJ begins at his defensive impact. He is listed at 6’4 210 and plays like a moving fire hydrant. There is a Naismithian quality to his game that is undeniable, an intersection of strength and agility that resembles an NFL defensive back more than a two guard. He is able to stand up forwards in the post while smothering smaller guards on the perimeter. The ability to remain strong while sliding around the court is a skill in itself. His feel as a help defender and comfortability in switches was great. Outside of occasional bouts with over-physicality, it was hard to come away with anything substantively negative to say on the defensive side of the ball. KJ was an incredibly effective defensive player as a freshman, in a high major conference, at 19 years old.

In recent years, the going has gotten tough in the National Basketball Association for defense-first guards. The threshold of NBA quality offense has grown so incredibly high that it has become nearly impossible to survive if you are not a credible threat to score the basketball. Lewis’ freshman year usage rate of 16.4 is incredibly low for a potential NBA prospect, particularly a guard. The fact he was a relative non-threat from beyond the arc (34% on 3.4 attempts per 100) does not help matters. The path towards NBA minutes as a low usage non-shooting shooting guard is incredibly thin.

While Lewis did not threaten defenses as a shooter last year at Arizona, there is genuine reason for optimism. He shot 79% from the line in college and despite uninspiring numbers around the rim and in the midrange, his tape going back to Duncanville and the 3SSB circuit shows real touch around the rim with flashes of a functional jumper off the dribble. Shot development is an imperfect and unpredictable science, but the foundation is there for steady growth over time.

As a slasher, Lewis’ athleticism shines yet again with the ability to blow by defenders, take bumps and finish through contact. With an unrefined handle, he was best attacking in a straight line or out of an advantage as a freshman, but his coordination and athleticism allow for a long developmental runway as a creator. KJ was a wrecking ball downhill in high school, and on an Arizona roster that lost nearly all of their starters (sans the immortal Caleb Love) there should be more room for him to explore the studio space as a driver. 

What makes KJ Lewis such an intriguing prospect is his combination of athleticism and feel. That, my friends, buried at the very end of my monologue, is the key to Lewis’ pitch as a prospect. He anticipates actions on defense, acts with decisiveness, takes care of the ball, and reads the floor well as a passer, all while being the best athlete on the court. He is versatile not only in his physical capabilities, but his ability to make quick decisions while playing a physically versatile role. As a freshman, we saw that manifest primarily on the defensive end of the floor, but it is exactly what makes the gamble on his offensive upside so appealing. 

Ahmed Jama – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Despite a late cycle surge onto draft boards this past cycle, 6’6 Colorado State wing Nique Clifford surprised many by returning to school for his 5th and final season of college basketball. Riding the wave of an impressive tournament showing, Clifford was given as good a chance as any veteran college player to work his way into serious draft consideration in a draft class mired in uncertainty. In an attempt to reverse engineer Clifford’s decision to return in lieu of remaining in the draft, I referenced Barttorvik.com to find statistical comparisons to Clifford’s previous season. In Bart Torvik’s 17 season database, Clifford is one of three players to fulfill the statistical query of Defensive Rebounding% ≥ 20; Assist/Turnover Ratio ≥ 1.5; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 2; 3PA/100 Possessions ≥ 5; Dunks made ≥ 20. The other two players being TCU’s (now Oklahoma City Thunder) Kenrich Williams and former New Mexico State Aggie Johnny McCants. Unsurprisingly all three players performed nebulous roles, as undersized bigs. The statistical company Clifford keeps is pertinent to his decision to return, because in my opinion, Clifford and his camp recognized unorthodoxy, in NBA decision maker’s eyes, is synonymous with risk. Whether or not this calculation was correct, returning to college has positioned Clifford as one of the best prospects in the country this season. 

Clifford’s unique brand of production is, in my opinion, a byproduct of his high school career, where he played as an undersized big. Despite Clifford measuring at only an 8’6 standing reach at the NBA Combine, the same as 2024 draft entrees Stephon Castle and AJ Johnson, Clifford ranked 45th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. This relentlessness on the glass was made possible by Clifford’s dynamic leaping ability, and more specifically his minimal load time on jumps. Clifford’s exceptional leaping ability, paired with his timing crashing the glass, allows him to contribute as a rebounder in a way virtually no other players his size are. While Clifford’s offensive rebounding rate of 4.5% is comparatively underwhelming, I believe this is a byproduct of Colorado State’s emphasis on limiting opponent transition opportunities at the cost of offensive rebounds. While they ranked 120th in defensive rebounding rate in the country, Colorado State was 302nd in offensive rebounding rate. Clifford’s internal clock as a rebounder manifests as a defender as well, where he’s able to fill a variety of roles, from hounding smaller players at the point-of-attack, chasing shooters off off-ball screens, and making long rotations as a backline defender and providing supplementary rim protection. 

As much confidence as Clifford’s unique basketball background and athletic traits give me, ultimately for a player his size to succeed in the NBA his shot will need to develop into a reliable skill. Clifford logged a pedestrian (relative to his position) 6 3PA/100 possessions this past season. However, his underlying shooting numbers provide reason for optimism. On 82 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts Clifford shot 41.5%, and his solid 38% on pull-up two’s only further substantiates Clifford’s potential as a reliable floor-spacer. Additionally, Colorado State’s playstyle elucidates Clifford’s underwhelming 3-point volume. As effective as Colorado State’s offense was with its given talent (61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart torvik), its identity was almost entirely defined by motion heavy Princeton concepts, and this scheme in my opinion came at the cost of spot-up 3 attempts. Playing in almost exclusively 5-out alignments, a vacated paint enabled CSU to finish as perhaps the best cutting team in the country (95th percentile in cutting volume and 99th percentile in cutting efficiency per Synergy). Comparatively Colorado State finished in the 69th percentile in catch-and-shoot frequency. What makes Princeton offenses so reliable is how their concepts allow teams to generate efficient offense often in lieu of traditional ‘advantage creator’, however this emphasis on movement and a ‘creation by committee’ approach can come at the cost of clean catch-and-shoot attempts. And when Clifford’s role specifically is taken into consideration, he often is CSU’s most consistent line-breaking threat as a cutter and ballhandler. 

All in all, Clifford’s previous production, when contextualized with his basketball past and current college role, paint the picture of a player capable of rapidly calibrating his game to fit an NBA role. With Colorado State graduating their top scorer and highest usage player from this past season, Isaiah Stevens, Nique Clifford is poised to cement himself as a need-to-know prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

Stewart Zahn – Grant Nelson, Alabama

Arriving in Alabama via transfer last season, Grant Nelson carried a fair amount of hype with him from NDSU, where he was not only highly productive but also showcased alluring skill and athleticism. With a talented cast of teammates in Tuscaloosa, Nelson took on an entirely different role with the Tide, a role that only further highlighted his versatility. 

No longer a Bison and one of the immediate primary offensive options, Nelson adapted very well to a more supplementary role with Alabama (to be fair, a very well-spaced context). The profile of Nelson’s individual scoring opportunities drastically changed, with his post-up and isolation frequencies slashed (21.1% of opportunities to 5.3%, and 15.6% to almost nothing – 2.2% respectively). To his credit, Grant took it in stride and committed to his role, shifting his focus onto the more off-ball aspects of his position, such as spot-ups, screening/rolling, cuts and transition. In a fast-paced environment like Alabama, Nelson nearly doubled his transition frequency, and Coach Nate Oats even allowed him to run some PnR’s and DHO’s throughout the season. The ball-handling and passing both seem to clear his positional thresholds. Playing large amounts of minutes at center, while not his traditional position, Nelson displayed great technique as a roller. His rolls were fluid, his slips were quick and timely, and his PnP game was a crucial element to Alabama’s patented play-style and spacing. All of this is to say that Nelson’s game appears to have great malleability to provide whatever a team may need from their forward. 

Nelson’s efficiency in most play-types is quite good, with one exception: the 3-point shot. Even as a career 75% free throw shooter (81% last season) with a decent stroke, Nelson has yet to solidify himself as threatening perimeter shooter. Capable, with just enough volume to be respected, Nelson still has plenty of work to do to iron out his shot and turn it into a real weapon. Attacking closeouts is definitely in his wheelhouse as a ball-handler, and a proficient or even average shot from the outside would really open up the court to his driving ability. He even dabbled in some pull-up shooting out of PnR’s, and while the results weren’t great, he would make the correct read to shoot it, and that was encouraging to see.

Defensively, Nelson again was playing out of position for much of the year. It was necessary for Alabama to have their most potent offensive lineup, and Grant held his own on the other end. Undersized as an NBA center (and not what he will be asked to do at the next level), Nelson did exhibit pretty good understanding of positioning himself in relation to the roller. When covering PnP’s, Nelson’s mobility allowed him to get out to the perimeter for worthwhile contests. As the primary rim protector a lot of the time, the awareness, anticipation and reactivity Nelson demonstrated was pretty compelling, and he would use his length and timing to finish the job with a block. That should translate well to his more suitable position as a forward and thus a weakside rim protector, potentially contributing with some additional opposition at the rim. Also a serviceable perimeter defender for his position, Nelson checks a lot of boxes defensively. On top of all that, Grant was hard-nosed as a rebounder all year, and he earned himself Coach Oat’s Hard-Hat award ten times, tied for the most on the team. 

While his stats reflect a quieter year than at NDSU, Nelson proved himself a multi-faceted player at Alabama, with room to improve particularly as a shooter, which would have an amplified effect on the rest of his game. He will be striving to validate last season, and he will have the chance to encompass and maybe even shed the “underrated”  tag throughout the Draft cycle.

Avinash Chauhan – Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Motiejus Krivas is a big dude with some serious skill. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him dominating college basketball in the near future.

Let’s start with the bad: Krivas could very well be at the horrific intersection of non-shooting poor finisher and limited defensive upside. He shot a middling 58% at the rim last year, and more worryingly, lineups with Krivas at the 5 consistently scored worse at the rim than with the starter, Oumar Ballo. Arizona shot 4% worse at the rim with Krivas on the floor, and of Arizona’s 5 most common lineups, the two with Krivas fared by far the worst at the rim. Part of this swing is that he was backing up a pretty monstrous rim finisher in Ballo, but it’s pretty inexcusable that Arizona shot just 54% at the rim with Krivas on the floor. He may also appear to be low feel, averaging a whopping 6.1 fouls per 40 with a measly 4% assist rate, he took zero threes on the season, and perhaps worst of all, he garnered just a 3.4% block rate in 20 conference games. If you’re a non-spacer who does not contribute to positive rim scoring, you foul incessantly, and you’re unable to effectively pass or shoot OR protect the rim, what exactly are you doing on the floor?

But while we have 439 minutes of Krivas’s NCAA sample, we also have a 637 minute sample at FIBA U19/U18 Euros/U20 Euros, and 1000 minutes playing for Lithuania’s Zalgiris. Krivas wasn’t terrible in NCAA by any stretch, with a respectable 3.4 BPM in 36 games and an overall 4.5 lineup net rating across all competition. But Krivas was genuinely ridiculous in a number of important international events, and it would be foolish to throw away all the data we have for a low minutes NCAA single season sample.

Let’s talk about the shooting. It sounds pretty insane to say this about a guy who attempted ZERO threes in the NCAA season, but Krivas seems like a decent bet to get some threes up this year. First off, Krivas actually has a decent track record of 3P shooting volume in the past: he’s averaging about 1 3PA/40 across 28 FIBA games, and he put up 61 threes across his final two seasons in Lithuania. Now for the fun stuff: Krivas is a ridiculously good free throw shooter with notable volume (especially considering he is a FT drawing machine). He shot 73% FT in his final season in Lithuania (139/191), 70% at FIBA (78/112), and he’s coming off a 78% FT season at Arizona (49/63). What’s more impressive is that Krivas has progressively become a bit of a touch god around the rim, with a strong diet of runners and hooks sprinkled throughout heavy post up usage. Across his FIBA U20 tourney this summer + Arizona, a whopping 17% of his total shots have come on hooks, making them on a staggering 58% (18/31). Bart has him at 13/29 on long 2s at Arizona.

To reiterate, we’re talking about a 7’2 mf who was putting up 3s in Europe as a teenager, is pushing the high 70s FT on extremely great volume, and has the proclivity to take and make hooks at a high rate. And he’s still technically a teenager. Again, it’s never a great idea to bet on a guy who literally took no 3s in an NCAA season. But shooting dev seems uniquely feasible for this particular case.

Personally, I don’t care too much if he shoots or not, since he’s also an absolutely insane rebounder. Krivas is coming off a 14.7% OREB/22.8% DREB season in NCAA: there have been only 9 drafted players since 2008 to match those numbers across their career. It gets crazier: Krivas averages the most rebounds per 40 in the TWENTY EIGHT YEAR HISTORY of the U18 Euros (10+ mpg). His 21.8 rebounds per 40 is well ahead of 2nd place Enes Freedom (20.2), with Usman Garuba (18.6) and Marc Gasol (17.7) not too far behind. Again, pretty much every good Euro prospect has played in the U18 Euros, including so many notable bigs since 1996. It is an absolutely huge deal that he is the most productive rebounder on a minute basis in the entirety of available data for this tournament. 

He has similarly crushed the U20 Euros and Lithuania Pro League: he put up an unreal 19% OREB and 28% DREB across 48 games of LKL+NKL. He isn’t a Zach Edey/DeJuan Blair level rebounding prospect given the lower comp level, but Krivas really isn’t THAT far off. Throw on his massive 7’5 wingspan, and Krivas is pretty easily the best rebounding prospect in the class if he declares, and should be one of the best rebounders in the league from day 1.

Rebounding is often a measure of physicality, but in Krivas’ case, I think it’s a unique look at his unreal anticipation and impressive feel for the game. Again, his 4.2% assist/1.4% steal/6.1 FC may seem horrifying, but make no mistake: Krivas has a legitimately great feel for the game. This is a guy who has shown a history of racking up steals at a pretty great rate for his size: across ~ 100 Lithuanian league games, he was above 2% steal. He averaged ~ 1.5 steals/40 across all FIBA tourneys. Much of this is just being at the right place at the time: he’s able to anticipate reads through gaps and use his length to make easy pickoffs. But he’s also a legit great passer. He can make pretty solid reads out of the post, though he can be overambitious and thereby turnover prone (>17% TO in 100 NKL/LKL games).

But his passing feel is especially demonstrated through his FIBA numbers. Despite a middling 0.7 A:TO in FIBA and 4% assist rate in NCAA, Krivas has put up 12.5% assist, 20.4% assist, and 14.2% assist in his last 3 FIBA stretches. And before you question the value of FIBA Euros in ascertaining playmaking upside, consider an all time passing development case in Domantas Sabonis, who was a complete non passer in all NCAA and European pro league games but had a 7 game stretch where he was a productive primary initiator for Lithuania’s FIBA U18 team. With a consistent steal and assist track record, coupled with his sheer size and length, Krivas has a pretty cool combination of tools and feel that could lead to seemingly unexpected offensive development.

The list of strengths is getting a bit ridiculous. This is a dude who can rebound at an Edey-lite level, potentially shoot, generate steals and assists, and has one of the strongest FIBA production profiles ever. After all, he was 35 PER at U18 Euros, 35 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney), and 37.6 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney). 

It’s probably important to reiterate that Mr. Krivas is a 7’2 individual with a giant 7’5 WS. I once wrote about the history of underclassmen who measured at the NBA combine with a WS over 7’4 WS. It is an insane list with an insane hit rate. Oh, and he might sound like an uber slow Euro big with painful verticality and terrible lateral movement. Well the verticality is probably true, but Krivas legitimately moves very well. In fact, he measured at 3.55 s for the sprint and 11.88 for the agility drill, which was significantly better than his peer Aday Mara (4.04 and 12.81, respectively) and somewhat comparable to Pacome Dadiet (3.47 and 12.29) and Salaun (3.63 and 11.84). This is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison, since Dadiet and Salaun are definitely faster and prolly just didn’t know how to game the system effectively (hence their massive leaps at the combine), but their relative closeness to Krivas still underscores how well he can move. With his incredible wingspan, solid movement for size, and strong feel (adept steal and pass generator), Krivas theoretically shouldn’t be much of a defensive liability. In fact, most of his positive net rating was via defense: Arizona’s defense was 6.4 points better/100 possessions with Krivas on the court, and 7.7 p/100 against t100 comp. Much of this was through his rebounding goodness: opposing teams rebounded 3.3% worse and shot 3% worse at the rim with Krivas on the court. 

Herein lies the issue: Krivas had an undeniably positive effect on defense this past year, but most of that came from mitigating second chance points and less from actually blocking shots. Despite his 7’5 WS, he measured with a paltry 22 inch standing vert that would be amongst the lowest in the NBA. He clocked a pedestrian 12.9% HC dunk rate, and had just a 4% block rate this year. He’s definitely a physical player capable of backing down guys in the post en route to a heavy postup diet, and he’s put up ~ 50 FTr in nearly every context; but the lack of verticality is somewhat of a stifler. I think it’s fair to project a bit of improvement: he was hovering above 6% block in Lithuania, and he’s averaged a whopping 4 blocks per 40 (~10% block) across 14 FIBA games in the last two years. I am well aware that the NCAA and NBA are far different than FIBA tourneys (where bigs are much more prone to dominate given the differential rules) and Lithuania (LKL and NKL have “grown men” but its a pretty weak league generally). It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but is it not fair to project some improvements for one of the most productive youth FIBA careers we’ve ever seen?

Not every latent strength has to actualize for Krivas to return legit NBA value. European bigs tend to be a bit of a mystery box, even when we have significant track records for them in various youth simulacrums. The common thread does seem to be rebounding: from Sabonis, Mirotic, and Gasol to Freedom, Zubac, and Vucevic, there are tons of elite rebounding/productive Euro centers that found a role (because of their feel, productivity, and outlier rebounding). We know Krivas is productive, we know he’s going to bring immediate offensive and defensive value with his rebounding, and we know that he has exceptional length, agility, and feel for position. But what’s stopping him from reaching the path of these European contemporaries?  Is path to being a quasi-Vucevic possible for Krivas, especially since Vuc has a similar WS? Can he be a Nikola Mirotic type? If he stays in school a year or two more, can he emerge as a virtuoso passer on par with Sabonis and Gasol? Or will he never really put it together and have a Garuba type career? 

I think there’s some very conceivable flaws with Krivas, some that he may never be able to overcome. But I think we’re also completely undermining a sneaky upside tail, one that may be particularly manifestable given the departure of starter Oumar Ballo. 7’5 wingspans do not grow on trees, nor do prospects with long ass wingspans have the feel or outlier rebounding or historic production profile of Krivas. One of the greatest producers in FIBA youth history is potentially eligible for the draft, and it’s about time he’s given his due credit.

The post Roundtable: Underrated Returners appeared first on Swish Theory.