Small edges drive on-court play as well. A defense will tag a roller because that corner three shooter can’t make them pay the way the pick-and-roll can. An offense will hunt a switch to find a slightly worse defender for their best player to attack. A coach goes bigger to create rebounds, while another goes smaller to shoot more and run in transition. On and on the dance goes all game long, until the edges one team creates outdo the other.

But these are all defined by small edges. When a significant edge is discovered, it blows the game wide open. The Moreyball-era Houston Rockets are the best example of this. They eschewed the midrange game to maximize threes and layups; at their peak, in 2017-18, Houston took 47% of their shots from deep and 35% at the rim. Their midrange frequency was dead last in the league. In fact, from 2012 to 2022, Houston was dead last in midrange frequency in every single season. With James Harden at the helm, they finished with a top-10 offense every season. That revolution broke the game open.

The average NBA team in 2024-25 took 39% of their shots from deep and 31% at the rim. If you go back to the first year of the Harden/Morey pairing in 2012-13, the average was 22% from three and 36% at the rim. The midrange has cratered from the most frequent shot (42%) to the least frequent (30%) in just over ten years. That was the product of the three-point gold rush.

Now, every team is on the hunt for shooting. Guards, wings, and even some bigs that can’t hit shots beyond the arc are losing value by the minute. Everyone saw the light, and the big edge generated by the “dunks and threes” philosophy has become a small edge. Thus, the search for the newest big edge begins. And I’m here to tell you now, steals are the next big edge that will create a gold rush in the NBA. Let me explain.

The Hypothesis

For these purposes, we’ll be focusing on the playoffs. The end goal of all teams is to lift that Larry come June. So, unless stated otherwise, I’ll be using playoff stats to explain the value of the steal.

Per Cleaning the Glass (like all my stats!), the average transition possession in the 2024/25 playoffs is worth 1.14 points. Conversely, the average halfcourt possession is worth 0.96 points. Going even deeper, the average transition possession coming from a steal is worth 1.36 points. These numbers will form the basis of my thinking.

Pushing a normal half-court possession into transition qualifies as a small edge. Take the Indiana Pacers, the best pushers of live rebounds in these playoffs. Indiana scores 1.05 points per half-court possession, which is the best mark of all playoff teams. They score 1.35 points per transition chance off a live rebound, also the best mark in these playoffs. So, roughly, any live rebound they push in a hurry is worth 0.3 extra points per possession. That’s a strong edge when you add up their average mark of 32.7 defensive rebounds per game.

But Indiana didn’t add the most points per 100 possessions through transition play of these playoffs. They finished behind two other teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. LA lost a tight first-round series to the powers of Nikola Jokic, so I can’t fault their process. Oklahoma City’s transition prowess has defined them all year and continued into the postseason. In addition to the second-most points added via the average transition possession, they have the second highest transition frequency behind only the Detroit Pistons (who have a third of the sample size).

This is where the steals come into play. OKC led the league in steals per game in the regular season, and has generated the highest turnover rate in this postseason. The formula that fueled them all year has put them three games from a championship: we are going to take the ball from you, and we are going to score.

Let’s do some rough math here—the Thunder average 10.6 steals per game in these playoffs and score 1.43 points per transition possession off a steal. For argument’s sake, let’s say two of those 11 steals don’t turn into transition, because I don’t have the money for the fancy sites that could tell me this. So, nine transition possessions per game at 1.43 PPP equals 12.87 points. Their Finals opponents, the Indiana Pacers, generate 7.5 steals per game at 1.38 PPP. Being generous and saying six of those turn into transition, that’s 8.28 points. Oklahoma City is developing 4.59 extra points per game in transition with their steal rates compared to Indiana.

And that’s not where the math stops. Remember that the average halfcourt offensive possession has been worth 0.96 points. Unlike a blocked shot, a steal is a guaranteed zero. Possession ends. Finito. So, if you’re the Thunder, a steal that takes away 0.96 points and adds 1.21 on average (12.87 transition points added divided by 10.6 steals). That’s 2.17 net points per steal leading to transition.

Alright, that was a lot of math. Take a breather. We have a bit more to get through.

A 2.17-point swing on a given possession is a MASSIVE edge by NBA standards. Let’s consider the small edges that teams look for again. The average NBA player shot 35.8% from three this postseason. So, the average three was worth 1.074 points. If shooting was your problem, you looked for upgrades. Let’s say a GM moves a player taking four threes per game at league average rates for a player hitting 38% of four threes per game. That’s an extra 0.066 points per shot, and 0.264 per game. Stretched over 82 games, that’s 21.65 total points in a season. Those are the margins we’re operating on here.

Now, I am throwing context out. That extra shooting edge may open up more plays, change defensive coverages against your primary options, and improve your points per possession in ways that are harder to quantify. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. If a steal can be worth two points, finding a player that averages 1.5 steals to 1.0 can add an extra point each game. The additive nature of each steal is far above any edge you can reasonably create.

Put it like this. Steph Curry took ten threes per game in these playoffs, making 40%. That’s 12 points per game for the greatest shooter in NBA history. If a league average playoff shooter took that volume, it adds up to 10.74 points. Gravity aside, Steph was worth 1.26 more points per game than your typical shooter. That’s worth less than the average steal. And there’s only one Steph Curry, and only one team has that edge. Plenty of teams can find a way to generate an extra steal.

The Application

Maybe you’re thinking this is junk math. I’m not Daryl Morey. I don’t know how to build complex data models to flesh out the values of each individual play. I’m a guy with a laptop and a premium stats subscription who watches a concerning amount of basketball. You can nitpick the math, but the critical assumptions remain: on average, the steal is now the most valuable play in basketball. Now the question becomes, how does this manifest?

Teams may try to find the next Dyson Daniels (a player I have written about time after time). The third-year Aussie went from bench piece on a middling Pelicans team to First Team All-Defense by wrangling three steals per game with the Hawks. That’s an astronomical number of steals, one unlikely to be repeated.

But let’s look at something more attainable: Alex Caruso, acquired for pennies on the dollar, is keying this Thunder defense. His 1.7 steals per game are worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City this postseason.

There are other ways to get in on the gold rush. Point guards like Tyrese Haliburton, typically admonished for being “conservative passers,” may increase in value. He who prevents transition chances is as good as the man who creates them, in a sense. Teams may hunt for stellar transition defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Nembhard, Derrick White, and Derrick Jones Jr. It’s no coincidence that some of the best transition players in the league are/were part of teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent memory.

You don’t need me to find evidence of the rising value of the steal. I constantly come back to the Thunder—in addition to their lead in forced turnovers this postseason, their offense has the second-best turnover rate. If Indiana were to beat them in these Finals, I’d bet on that win being fueled by transition and a shift in the turnover deficit. Just look at Game 3 last night. Indiana won the steal battle 13-6, scoring 1.25 points per transition chance off a steal. That right there swung the 116-107 victory.

The last great NBA dynasty was put over the top by three-point shooting. The next champion will be fueled by the steal.

The post Steals: The NBA’s Next Gold Rush appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

But it’s far from exclusively the case. In contrast, players like Steve Nash, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, Kobe Bryant, Draymond Green…I could go on…were all negative basketball players on an NBA court their rookie season (per DARKO).

I watched prospect tape for every name on that list, in addition to some other steep development arc players, to try to ascertain commonalities. But, importantly, the roads are complex, winding and opaque. This is not a comprehensive articulation on what makes players improve.

This is a piece on Cason Wallace. Wallace was indeed a negative basketball player as a rookie NBA player, but not dramatically so. His -0.3 rating on DARKO’s all-in-one indicator is similar to that of other developmental stories Kyle Lowry, Jalen Brunson or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as rookies. But does he have the same kind of potential to improve?

That’s what we hope to answer. This article will go through five steep development curve characteristics I discovered during my historical improvers tape watch to see how he scores. Through that lens we can better benchmark Wallace’s room to improve, and learn about the nature of development as we go.

Trait #1: Willingness to Initiate Physicality

Cason Wallace’s physicality is inconsistent but overall a positive. On the defensive end, there is no question that Wallace is accepting of physicality. The play above is a prime example, as Wallace can eat up drives into his body with perfect positioning. This is valuable as there is little risk of Wallace bailing out of a play, in fact entrenching himself as he blocks a path.

Physicality is a sign of potential development due to basketball being a physical sport; it’s not much more complicated than that. But more specifically, physicality allows you to execute plays to their fullest extent. What good is effort if, at the critical moment, the player decides to play it safe?

That is the question we face with Cason Wallace’s offense. Wallace, despite all his strength and physicality on the defensive end, is highly prone to settling away from the rim for any semi-closed path. When he has a clear runway, Wallace can look downright imposing attacking the rim:

While Wallace’s off-the-dribble non-rim two rate (pull-up twos and floaters divided by total 2PA) is almost exactly league average, you still get the sense he is leaving money on the table given his strength and driving ability. The flashes make you wonder why his free throw rate was only 0.22 at Kentucky or a miniscule 0.08 his rookie season. The latter was within the twenty lowest free throw rates in the league, a concerning sign.

Wallace’s proclivity for floaters is a vicious cycle: due to stopping his drives short, he loses the opportunity to develop rim finishing craft; because he lacks finishing craft, he has to settle for more floaters.

Wallace gets a resounding half of a check mark for the physicality question, and there are three reasons for optimism. One is Cason’s overall sense of technique, which we’ll get to later in this piece. The second is role, as Wallace was used as a wheel greaser in a lot of ways, but rarely schemed to attack the tin aggressively. That could change as of game one this coming season, with a paint pressure gap left in Josh Giddey‘s absence. Third, which combines with the other two, is how Wallace is very good at taking what’s given to him. Perhaps with more confidence in his body (he reportedly put on 15 pounds this offseason) the offensive physicality will catch up with the defense.

Trait #2: Motor

Watching the greatest development curve players in succession alerted me to one blindingly clear fact: to improve a lot, you have to play hard. This both sounds obvious and like an old school, pre-analytics scout. But it’s a characteristic I may have been underappreciating, no less. Having a low motor does not preclude improvement, nor does having a high motor guarantee it. But to develop from a role player to a star it is basically impossible to not play a little like a maniac.

While it is not surprising that a high motor would show up on tape, the consistency was surprising. Even Devin Booker, not widely considered a high motor player, proved to be a defensive pest as a prospect. Wallace is somewhere in between the high motor players like Booker, Durant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the All-Time motor players like Russell Westbrook and Kyle Lowry, and likely closer to the latter.

Motor is the cousin of physicality: it not just permits play execution, but creates plays out of thin air. Cason has no business having an effect on the play above, one of the few in the league who could get this steal. Below he shows consistency of focus (and indeed, physicality) to track the ball down and secure it.

Motor contributes to development by giving a player more bites at the apple. The higher the motor the more likely you’ll be found in transition or cutting to the basket, or relocating for a three. For a player low in usage, finding these opportunities is essential. As is having the drive to finish the play.

Even though it ends in a made basket, I love the activity from Wallace in the clip below. Motor here means boxing out, nearly stripping the ball and closing out over ~25 feet in an instant.

One more example of physicality meeting motor: the below box out on Adem Bona.

Motor equals opportunity, and Wallace makes sure he takes all he can get. Likely stuck in a low usage role given the Thunder’s higher profile options, Wallace needs to maximize his motor in the share he does get. I have little doubt he will do so.

Trait #3: Small Space Coordination

The above clip, in combination with a few others, are as compelling signs of Wallace’s star upside as you can find. At this point, it is fairly clear Wallace has defensive upside, even just tying together the points on physicality and motor above. But offense is where you can really strike gold, as the impact of the best offensive players exceeds the impact of the best defenders. The ball travels faster than you can move, and can also fly higher than you can reach (with a Wemby-sized caveat). But you need to put yourself in position to have that impact with the ball, and that’s how we arrive at small space coordination.

Basketball is a high-movement sport: according to NBA.com, the typical player ran ~150 feet per 24 seconds on offense, ~130 feet on defense this past playoffs. In fact, Wallace ran 10% faster than the average player on defense while about average speed on offense. All of this movement volume only emphasizes the importance of movement quality. Cason Wallace has plenty of the former, what about the latter?

On offense, small space coordination not only means being nimble enough to create an initial advantage, but, arguably more important, the ability to dance through traffic. We return to a similar concept as the previous sections – the ability to finish a play. Wallace is, decidedly, a question mark on this front.

There are plays like the above where Wallace is able to create a unique footwork cadence in combination with sleek ballhandling. Or even the below from his AAU days:

But those moments are far from consistent. At Kentucky he had 60 drives, comparing favorably to fellow rim-shy Kentucky Wildcat Reed Sheppard at only 49, but far below Rob Dillingham at 93. Watching the tape, Wallace is often able to get that first step with pretty good burst, but never plays around in the midrange. He is either kicking out safely after an initial probe, conceding for a pull-up/floater or, far less common, throwing his body into the rim protector. More small space coordination would mean more complex playmaking, such as biding time handling a pick and roll, dribbling to the soft zones of the defense to draw help, or foul-grifting by dragging your man along with you.

Wallace may have access to moments of small space coordination, but the lack of applied coordination means less practice hitting those spots. Reps are essential to getting one’s footing, literally. Will the Thunder allow him to initiate these dances? Time will tell.

Trait #4: On-Ball Experimentation

These concepts continue to go hand-in-hand, as small space coordination would dramatically expand one’s on-ball opportunities. Wallace’s shy nature in attacking once again holds him back, but not without flashes here as well.

Wallace’s primary way of experimenting is with his pull-up, but even here there is little by way of complexity. Rather, where the flashes are most promising are with his passing.

Beautiful, effective, and more proof that Wallace has access to small space coordination. Wallace uses the screen and then eats up the middle space between his man and the big. He does this with a left hand in-and-out into an accelerated cross to then reset backwards and sling a one-handed pass to the corner. The play is only possible through Wallace’s unusual movement pattern over the two second period.

The value of on-ball experimentation is clear: trying more things allows you to do more things. We’re returning to the importance of creating one’s own opportunity. Experimentation is not Wallace’s favorite way of going about things. His whole thing is reliability, with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.0 with Kentucky and 2.6 with Oklahoma City, which shows up in a heavy preference for making the simple read. Most of the time he’s on the court with the Thunder, Wallace is doing mundane tasks.

But Wallace is still capable of deception here and there. In particular, he is able to manipulate by passing against momentum, drawing in help with his eyes and accelerating into gaps.

This is not the most interesting way to experiment with the ball, but it still may be effective. The important thing is that Wallace has options. If the runners and pull-ups drop at a more efficient clip (as I expect…Wallace’s touch is very good), Wallace will have larger margins in which to operate, and maybe the pull to experiment becomes stronger. But right now, partly by scheme but partly by preference, Wallace conducts himself like he wants to remain a role player. An elevated one at that, as Wallace comes off as a perfectionist, but perhaps not significantly adding to the star equity like our huge development leap stories.

Trait #5: Technique

We saved the best for last. Technique is only this low on the list due to how long it took to click for me that’s what I was seeing. In particular, watching the tape of Steve Nash made me keen to this issue. Could it be? Have I really been underrating the most basic, fundamental aspects of basketball? I think so.

The tape of freshman Steve Nash shows crumbs if not large bites of all the elements listed above, but most of all it shows technique.

If you’re sorting through highlights or exclusively watching Synergy clips, you might miss it. Nash’s triple threat is as sound as any I’ve seen, ripping through menacingly while constantly changing his elbow posture to keep dribble, pass and shoot all as options at once. He sets shoulder-wide screens and can take the contact (physicality). He runs routes with intention. When he makes his move, it is decisive and with little wasted motion.

Here is where Cason shines.

As you can see from the above clips, there are a few areas where Wallace shines from a technique standpoint. First, his spot up technique is very strong. While he prefers to one-two into looks off the catch he is also able to load quickly from a stationary position. Wallace was in the 90th percentile as a spot up shooter as a rookie, shooting a blistering 43% on catch and shoot threes. But he’s capable of attacking closeouts relying on technique, too. His pumps are exaggerated in a good way, and he takes a long initial stride, swinging the ball in front of him.

Wallace’s technique is also strong from a physicality point of view. He sets sharp screens, extremely valuable in the OKC offense as he often began a possession with a screen for SGA near the logo.

The technique jumps off the screen on defense. Wallace is particularly adept at mirroring ballhandlers, enabled by a discipline to rely on footwork to block off any path in an instant.

Watch Cason Wallace and you’re watching someone who pays attention to the little things in the lab. He concerns himself with the details many young players gloss over, which speaks volumes to his ability to improve.

Technique is, perhaps most of any of these traits, an indication of latent value. A technically sound player is able to apply that technique to any basketball action, assuming tied to a minimum level of athleticism. Technique is the bedrock of basketball success, and Wallace will only further refine his methods with time.

Conclusion

Cason Wallace is a boring watch for a potential star, but only if you don’t know where to look. Even where he does not completely check the box for a developmental trait, there are flashes. The key will be where Wallace’s on-ball usage settles, where he needs reps the most to realize the most upside. Perhaps there is a plan there involving bench units.

Wallace will undeniably become a star defender. In defensive DARKO Plus-Minus, he is ahead of the curve compared to Jrue, White, Smart and Caruso.

Grading out excellently in advanced metrics as a rookie is a great reason to believe in this story, but it is also embedded in the details. Wallace employs technique with physicality to dodge through screens (already an area where we’ve seen improvement) or to cover the right zone in a scramble.

The offense is the question mark. Wallace is likely a slightly negative to neutral offensive player in 2024-25, but the degree of involvement will tell us a lot. Wallace’s strength is again technique, which enables him to play on or off ball, as a screener or screen-recipient. Should he use the technique to buffer his small space coordination, problem-solving in a different way, Wallace’s offensive upside could be quite high.

I wrote this about Cason Wallace ahead of the 2023 draft:

“…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’re asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.“

One year later, I only believe this more to be the case.

The post Cason Wallace’s Star Potential appeared first on Swish Theory.

The story of how the Hartenstein deal came about is just as sweet. Right before free agency opened up at 6 PM Eastern on June 30th, Presti and members of the Thunder organization made their way to Eugene, Oregon, to meet with Hartenstein in his hometown. Immediately, this is reminiscent of when they did the same for Mike Muscala in 2019, flying to his hometown in Minnesota to pitch why he should sign with them (that too ended in a success).

The meeting lasted just over 2 hours before they boarded their plane and flew back to Oklahoma City, around 40 minutes later than it was reportedly initially scheduled to depart, which one can only romanticize to be because of how well the meeting went. Sometime after landing, Presti and Hartenstein’s agents Aaron Mintz and Andrew Morrison began finalizing the details overnight until reaching an agreement the next morning. Shams Charania was the first to break the news of his decision at 9:58 AM Eastern on July 1st.

Hartenstein is the most non-traditional yet traditional ‘Thunder player’ Presti has brought in thus far. While he lacks the prerequisite shooting and silky ball-handling abilities they often covet, he brings the positional size, touch, processing ability, and defensive playmaking they always look for in their players. He brings a brand new element of rebounding the Thunder lacked last season, too, but the key here is how he does it without entirely compromising the identity they’ve been building since 2020.

But how exactly does he fit into Oklahoma City’s scheme on both ends of the floor? Does he start next to Chet Holmgren or come off the bench? Just how impactful can he be? With those and other questions in mind, I try my best to predict what he’ll look like in a Thunder jersey during the course of the 2024-25 season.

Additive Skills

Before breaking down how he may fit into the Thunder’s scheme, let us look into the additive skills he brings to OKC — the skills he unequivocally brings to the table that they didn’t have much of last year that will add new wrinkles to their offense.

A DHO Superhub — An Intersection of Screening and Court Mapping

Screening

Screening is one of the biggest things the Thunder lacked last season.

The team’s lone rotation bigs were Chet Holmgren, 7-foot-1 but only 207 lbs, and Jaylin Williams, 240 lbs but 6-foot-9, neither of whom had outstanding technique that made them effective screeners. This played a role in their offense bogging down against Dallas in the second round (118.3 offensive rating in the regular season -> 111.8 offensive rating versus Dallas). No screen created much separation for OKC’s ballhandlers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, and Dallas simply switched everything to keep the ball in front of them. This stagnated their offense and led to a lot of iso-ball (8.2% isolation frequency in the regular season -> 13.1% versus Dallas).

Shai remained unfazed as he’s one of the greatest iso scorers this game has ever seen. But Jalen Williams (a.k.a. ‘JDub’) really struggled to create in isolation on volume and that led to a drop-off in his scoring rate (22.0 PTS/75 -> 16.6 PTS/75) and efficiency (62.1% TS -> 50.8% TS).

Enter Isaiah Hartenstein.

A bruising 7-foot, 250 lbs big with excellent screening technique, Hartenstein had to fight for each minute on an NBA floor early on in his career by doing the dirty work like setting hard screens to free up teammates. Now, he’s proven to be one best screeners the league has to offer: he was first in the playoffs in screen assists per 36 minutes (6.1).

His feel for screening and rescreening is potent and creates tons of separation for the ballhandler, either creating space to pullup or a runway to get downhill. Here he creates a wide open pullup three for Deuce McBride just from his feel and ability to screen and rescreen:

His feel and timing when flipping the angle of the screen is unreal. Jalen Brunson acts as if he’s accepting the screen to set up a crossover, and as he’s crossing over to reject the screen, Hartenstein recognizes this and flips the angle of the screen to seal off Batum completely.

Not just being a big body who can set hard screens but also having the ability to flip screening angles, rescreen, and seal defenders as needed is a huge differentiator between Hartenstein and other screeners around the league, and it’s hard to overstate how much this will make life easier for Shai and JDub. Shai shot 50.8% on midrange jumpers and JDub shot 51.3%, which ranked 5th and 4th respectively among the top 20 in midrange shooting volume. Being this efficient on such a difficult shot diet of self-created, contested shots is remarkable and Hartenstein levels the playing field for them.

Take a look at how freely Brunson steps into an open midrange pullup in the first clip, similar to Shai doing the same in a March game versus Phoenix thanks to a Bismack Biyombo screen in the second:

I’d bet on Hartenstein’s screening leading to an increase in Shai and JDub’s pullup three-point shooting volume next season too:

Court Mapping

Anyone who’s watched New York Knicks games or is generally present on NBA Twitter probably knows about Hartenstein’s passing. Whether it’s passing on the short-roll, as a post hub, or in dribble handoffs (DHOs), he’s one of the best bigs in the league at recognizing the opening in defenses and passing it to an open man.

But DHOs are relatively simple. Of course, you have to be able to process actions and being a nice passer is a plus. But most athletic rim-running bigs with above-average processing abilities are able to be used in DHO actions at volume (see DeAndre Jordan with the Clippers, Clint Capela with the Hawks right now). So what makes Hartenstein’s DHO ability so special for it to be deserving of its own section?

His court mapping.

Hartenstein’s court mapping manifests in two main ways on the court. One is his constant will to find advantageous space in the paint. He’s always moving around to find open space — either to receive a dumpoff or just to clear space for a driving ballhandler — and never lets the defense rest. See below, as he moves around in the paint and finds an opening to receive a dumpoff before finishing with his world-class 61% floater.

His ability to find open space for dumpoffs and punish his defender as an interior scorer serves as a release valve when defenses load up on drives. And this tendency to constantly move around and find open space is a clear manifestation of his court mapping abilities.

The other manifestation is in the way he executes DHOs.

Hartenstein isn’t just your standard top-of-the key DHO big who runs a standstill handoff and rolls to the rim. He can connect an offense to a secondary play after an initial drive or action fails with his DHO ability. This is made possible by his court mapping and knowing where his teammates are and will be at any given moment.

The clip below is a great example. Hartenstein relocates to an advantageous spot near the perimeter to receive a kickout pass. But the pass to him isn’t for him to catch and score. Instead, the pass to him serves as a connection for Donte DiVincenzo to then run a handoff with him, where Hartenstein’s screening can then create an open three for DiVincenzo.

Everything that makes Hartenstein’s DHO ability so special is on display there — his court mapping to position himself in the best place to catch and run a DHO immediately, and since a DHO is essentially a moving version of a PnR, his 7’0/250 lbs frame serves as screen that makes it difficult for Kyle Lowry to navigate around and get a good contest.

This is how Hartenstein’s screening coincides with his court mapping to make him a DHO superhub.

And this DHO ability serves as another release valve alongside his interior scoring. If an initial drive fails and Hartenstein is nearby, just pitch it to him and he’ll initiate a DHO. Alongside his court mapping and screening, he covers so much ground which makes it easy for him to transition a failed initial drive/action into a secondary DHO. This ground coverage is yet another trait that makes his DHO ability so valuable in unison with his other traits.

The ability to be a release valve around the paint with his interior scoring and connective DHO ability is something that’ll bring a lot of value to the Thunder. OKC’s drive-and-kick offense was somewhat predictable, which allowed Dallas to know when and where to send help on drives, and where and how to recover to the perimeter on the kickout. As @polarfall pointed out on Twitter, this disrupted the rhythms of OKC’s players attacking off the catch which further stagnated their offense.

While Hartenstein doesn’t fully solve this issue (volume shooting and shooting over contests is still a concern for the team as a whole) he does help fix it. Being a simple release valve in the paint with his combination of movement and floater excellence adds another wrinkle to their driving game that makes their offense harder to guard. Being able to transition the offense into secondary plays after the initial drive fails also inherently rectifies some of the stagnation issues as it adds movement to their offense. This movement brings chaos, chaos brings unpredictability, and unpredictably is what the Thunder lacked versus Dallas.

Hartenstein thrives under movement and unpredictability as that’s where his quick processing and passing abilities as a big man shine. Knicks players were constantly moving and cutting, since if you just move enough around Hartenstein, he’ll find you. Players in OKC’s offense moved and cut a lot last season too, but they were mostly systematic cuts. Hartenstein should encourage more free-flowing, read-and-react movement that would add more unpredictability to their offense.

His passing will also generally bloom so many more diverse options for the Thunder next season. So often did OKC fail to make cross-court skip passes to break down Dallas’ defense. Either because their ballhandlers couldn’t make that pass or wouldn’t because by the time a loopy, cross-court pass reached the player in the weakside corner, the Mavericks’ athletic and rangy wings (Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington) would’ve recovered by then.

The Knicks had a somewhat similar problem in the playoffs versus the Pacers but not exactly. Indiana ICE’d the ballscreen, forcing Brunson towards the sideline, and then trapped the ballscreen, forcing him to pass over the trap. Brunson being 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan and having to pass over a trap involving a 6-foot-11 Myles Turner with a 7-foot-4 wingspan is a tough task. So the Knicks’ solution was one Isaiah Hartenstein.

Brunson would hold his dribble long enough to pull Turner far away from the perimeter. He would then sling a pass to the strongside corner while Hartenstein flashed middle. The pass would then find Hartenstein, who could make a play from the middle of the floor with a 4-on-3 advantage.

What made that play happen is the Knicks players’ quick passes and decision making, from McBride’s connective pass to Hartenstein to his pass to DiVincenzo. Not every player can sling cross-court skip passes as effortlessly as Luka can, but there are always other ways to exploit aggressive defensive coverages. The Thunder too excel in connective passing all throughout the roster, but lack the range in passing versatility to make such skip passes.

This isn’t a direct copy-and-paste solution for OKC’s issue with making those skip passes. Rather, the point here is that Hartenstein’s quick processing and passing abilities as a big present unique problem-solving solutions in any situation if a coach is willing to get creative. And Presti mentioned that Coach Mark Daigneault is always willing to try things out in his press conference for the Hartenstein signing.

In that conference, he also said Hartenstein takes them from an unorthodox offense to a versatile offense. And that’s exactly what he does. Whether it’s with his deadly interior movement and scoring, his screening in PnR, his screening in unison with his court mapping in DHOs, his quick processing as a passer, or all the ways these different skills coincide to make him a release valve, Hartenstein makes the Thunder’s offense more diverse and more versatile. And versatility reigns supreme in today’s NBA.

Scheme Fit

Now that I’ve laid out Hartenstein’s unique and additive skillset, it’s time to look into how fits within OKC’s scheme. The Thunder ran a 5-out alignment last year and finished 1st in 3PT% during the regular season. While Hartenstein has been a non-shooter thus far in his NBA career, his presence doesn’t require a major shift in the Thunder’s 5-out scheme. Rather, minor tweaks.

“Delay” Series

NBA teams have long run 5-out offense with a non-shooting big on the floor, namely the Golden State Warriors. Whether it was with Andrew Bogut in the early years of the dynasty or with Draymond Green in the later years as his shooting declined, the Warriors consistently ran 5-out alignment while playing a non-shooting big. This was achieved by placing the big at the top of the key, where the big could then run spread pick-and-rolls and DHO actions with a ballhandler and roll to the rim in what was essentially 5-out spacing.

One series the Warriors ran a lot and have continued to run ever since Steve Kerr took over in 2014-15 is “Delay” also known as “Open.” Popularized by Mike D’Antoni in his time with the New York Knicks, Delay is a variation of 5-out and involves a big positioned at the top of the key. It’s initiated with a pass to the big at the top of the key and actions then run between the other 4 players off the ball. Many and multiple actions can be run at the same time out of Delay.

Pindowns are often used in Delay for a player to come off a screen and either shoot or dribble and drive.

If they don’t shoot coming right off the pindown, they could also flow into PnR with the big. This is especially good when the big’s defender (x5) at the top of the key is sagging as it’s essentially playing PnR versus drop coverage.

Or a player could just come off a screen and flow right into a DHO with the big, which is called ‘Chicago’ action. This is also useful when x5 is sagging, as a DHO with the big in that scenario is once again basically PnR versus drop coverage. If x5 is playing more aggressive — playing up to the big in the DHO (equivalent of playing at the level of the screen in PNR) or hedging the DHO to prevent a pullup jumper — the ballhandler can take advantage by finding the rolling big.

The player could also curl the pindown screen.

Or curl the screen to then allow the screener to flow into a DHO with the big.

Flare screens are common in Delay as well.

The pindown screener can slip the screen, which is a common switch beater.

Or the flare screen itself can act as a decoy for the screener to come up and run a DHO with the big — ‘Flare DHO.’

Rip screens, or back screens, can also be used in Delay. Below, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is overplaying Jaime Jaquez Jr. to prevent a clean look for him to catch the ball. So, Duncan Robinson sets a rip screen on Alexander-Walker that frees up Jaquez Jr. on the cut.

General backdoor cutting opportunities also open up out of so many actions and so much movement, especially when a player rejects a pindown screen.

These are just a few of the actions that can be run within Delay. From Elevator, to Floppy, to Split, there are dozens more actions that can be run through a big at the top of the key. With so many actions, there’s tons of movement and tons of reads in Delay, so having a big who can process the floor and make the right reads quickly is key. And having one allows a team to run 5-out offense with a non-shooting big outside of just high pick-and-roll offense, a la, a way to preserve OKC’s 5-out philosophy.

The great news is that:

1. The Knicks already utilized Hartenstein at volume in Delay last season, where his intersection of screening and quick processing makes for an elite offensive hub at the top of the key. Here’s a minute and a half of him passing out of Delay.
2. OKC already used Jaylin Williams in Delay a good bit too, who also possesses great passing and size to see over the defense. Here’s just under a minute of him passing out of Delay.

This means that the foundation to integrate Hartenstein and a higher volume of Delay series into the Thunder’s offense has already been laid out. More Delay also inherently means more motion offense which, once again, helps rectify the stagnation issues they faced against the Mavericks.

I already detailed one reason why Hartenstein’s defender can’t just simply sag and negate the 5-out nature of having him on the perimeter: it leads to easy flips to DHOs that create easy opportunities to score. But Hartenstein is also talented as a driver and capable of attacking slower-footed bigs that sag off him. This is what completes his offensive arsenal and makes him a true hub on the perimeter.

He attacked both Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid off-the-dribble out of Delay last season, who couldn’t handle his combination of movement skills, strength, and touch when giving him a runway of space to attack.

Strength is something he utilized on drives in space even against bigs who move well but lack the strength to absorb his bumps. He can create separation with speed + strength and finish with touch as he did against Rudy Gobert, or just transition the drive into a backdown as he did against Nicolas Claxton where his combination of strength and touch wins (he was in the 96th percentile in post-up efficiency).

And even on drives where he can’t beat a big with speed or strength, he has a decelerating “slow step” that catches his defenders off guard and creates a finishing window. This is a move usually reserved for guard and wing ballhandlers, so his defender isn’t prepared for it.

These diverse methods are how Hartenstein found ways to win as a driver when given space to attack, even against some of the best defenders in the world in Embiid, Gobert, and Evan Mobley. He scored 1.08 points per possession on 40 drive possessions last season according to Synergy, including shooting 16-of-24 (66.7%) on field-goal attempts out of drives.

This intersection of screening, passing, driving, and finishing is what enables offense to be run at a high level through Hartenstein and Delay series while maintaining 5-out alignment — try and break that 5-out alignment and the defense will be punished with DHOs and drives. And that’s how OKC retains their 5-out offense with the addition of a non-shooting big while also adding motion offense to fix their stagnation issues in the playoffs.

And this is exactly how Hartenstein can fit in and find success within the Thunder’s system and why they pursued him aggressively. He’s as good of a fit as it’ll get with a non-shooting big thanks to that specific intersection of skills that I mentioned.

That specific intersection of skills also blossoms versatility in the role that Hartenstein can perform in; a size-feel-touch intersection is by far the chain of skills that offers the most versatility in the amount of different ways a player can produce. What this means more simply is that Delay series isn’t that only way to maximize Hartenstein in the Thunder’s offense. Especially when he shares the floor with Holmgren, there are other ways to integrate him in double-big lineups and still maintain one of the best offenses in the NBA.

4.5 Out Offense

One of those ways to integrate double-big lineups is with the use of the “4.5 Out” offensive alignment.

While I don’t think Hartenstein will end up starting a majority of the regular season games at the 5 next to Holmgren at the 4, finding the best ways to make double-big lineups work is a huge part of maximizing Hartenstein’s $29 million AAV, and more importantly, maximizing the potential of their lineup optionality depending on opponent.

4.5 Out is simply an alignment that combines 4-out and 5-out offense; it’s 4-out but with an empty weakside corner (weakside is the opposite side of the ballhandler, ex: a ballhandler on the right wing means the left side is the weakside, vice versa). Usually in 4-out, there’s a center in the weakside dunker spot with a player also occupying the weakside corner. In 4.5 out, though, there’s a center in the weakside dunker spot but the next closest player to that center is the weakside wing. The simplest way to describe this is that it’s a traditional 5-out offense but with one of the players in the corner pinching in to the dunker spot.

While this offensive alignment has been around for a long time, @Bowser2Bowser on Twitter first gave it the nickname ‘4.5 Out’ in late December of 2022 and made an entire podcast video on the alignment with Evan Gualberto in April 2024.

I’d highly recommend watching the podcast episode if you’re interested in learning more about the alignment itself (that’s where I first learnt about it) as I’ll be talking moreso about how it applies to the context of Oklahoma City here.

To summarize what they and the Tweet linked above talk about, the advantage of 4.5 Out compared to traditional 4-out is that it makes it harder for defenses to help the helper.

When the center defending the dunkers spot (x5) has to step up and help on a drive, the absence of a player in the weakside corner makes it difficult for someone to help the helper, or in this case, help x5. If there was someone in that corner, that’s an easier rotation to the dunkers spot to prevent a lob or dumpoff.

But with the closest player on the wing, that’s a more difficult rotation to make for two reasons. One, because it’s more distance to cover on a rotation. Two, a defender helping from the wing allows that offensive player on the wing to relocate and move closer towards that empty weakside corner once his defender roams off him. So even if the wing defender rotates over and prevents a lob or dumpoff pass to the dunker spot player, it leaves a kickout pass to a relocating shooter wide open.

With the right lineups, this leads to very high-octane offense with an ideal combination of rim attempts and open 3s. Rim pressure is something this alignment can especially improve with the negation of traditional help-the-helper techniques, and something OKC could use as they finished 16th in rim frequency during the regular season despite being 1st in drives. They can have Hartenstein as the big in the corner cheating in towards the dunker spot, while still keeping Chet on the perimeter for spacing purposes.

Chet would have to make improvements to his shot to make 4.5 Out work effectively, though. While he shot 37.0% from three during the regular season, that number dipped to 26.0% in the postseason due to a slow shooting release and a lack of shooting versatility. Of his 349 three-point attempts in the regular season, a whopping 334 of them were categorized as open jumpshots per NBA.com. That means only 4% of his attempts came with a contesting defender within 4 feet of him. Even when accounting for the natural wonkiness of tracking data, that’s a strikingly low number.

Defenses in the playoffs recognized this tendency and targeted it ruthlessly. They closed out hard to his three-point attempts with fast, lengthy, athletic defenders like Herb Jones, Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford, challenging him to convert over contests that was made difficult due to his slow shooting release. This is how his shot was neutralized and his 3PT% took a 9-percent dip.

The encouraging sign here is that, less than a week ago on media day, he talked about tweaking his jumpshot over the offseason in order to maximize shot versatility, likely hinting at speeding up his release:

If he indeed does come into the season with a sped-up release, allowing him to shoot over tighter contests while maintaining efficiency, that makes double-big lineups with Hartenstein that much more dangerous offensively and a 4.5 Out offense specifically much more viable. A faster release and shooting over contests also inherently means taking a higher volume of threes, fixing the issue of Holmgren’s middling shooting volume at 7.0 three-point attempts per 100 possessions.

5 Slot Offense

Another way to utilize double-big lineups is with “5 Slot,” another variation of 5-out that puts the center in the far slot (the slot opposite to the ballhandler’s side). The name “5 Slot” too was something given by @Bowser2Bowser, as he was the first one to publicly catch onto Quinn Snyder debuting it during the Atlanta Hawks’ 2023 preseason.

Along with the annotated video linked above, he’s published an article about 5 Slot on his website, The Basketball Action Dictionary.

To summarize, 5 Slot compromises opposing defenses’ rim protection and rotations. Compromising opponents’ rim protection intrinsically bumps an offense’s rim attempts (Atlanta saw a 20% leap in rim FGA from 2022-23 to 2023-24) and thus rim pressure, which also leads to more open kickout 3s. Similar to 4.5 Out, this is another alignment that promotes a healthy balance of rim attempts and open 3s if executed well. With the creation and use of 5 Slot, Atlanta’s shot diet jumped from 27th in 2022-23 to 5th in 2023-24, per Cleaning The Glass.

5 Slot unlocks all this just by placing the center at the far slot instead of the top of the key — like in traditional 5-out — or the dunker spot — like in 4-out. This accomplishes a number of things, all stemming from one thing: placing your center at the far slot also places the opposing team’s center (their primary rim protector) there, meaning they’re a few steps away from their normal help position. This delays their help defense by a just a fraction, which is enough time to compromise a defense’s traditional rim protection techniques.

With their primary rim protector a few steps away from help defense, the defense now has to either:

• Send their low man (the defender guarding the corner) over to rotate and help at the rim, usually a guard or wing that is significantly worse at rim protection.
• Ask their center to just make the longer rotation and live with the results.

But it’s not even as easy as just having the center make the long rotation and live with the result at the rim. Even if they do make the rotation and successfully protect the rim from a ballhandler, that leaves a wide open “45 Cut” for x5 to stampede into.

All this is how Boston used 5 Slot in the playoffs to de-emphasize Mobley’s rim protection, as the video below details:

A defensive 3-second violation prevents Mobley from pre-rotating in the paint, meaning he can only begin his rotation once a paint touch occurs. By that time, it’s already had an impact on the effectiveness of his rim protection. But even if he were able to make the rotation and successfully protect the rim, that leaves Al Horford open for a kickout 3 or Luke Kornet open on a 45 Cut. This is where that ideal combination of rim attempts and open 3s comes from.

The Thunder can use 5 Slot in double-big lineups to do so similarly. They can run actions on the ball involving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren on one slot (a PG/SG and PF PnR, for example) while placing Isaiah Hartenstein on the opposite slot. Now, they have an entire side to work with and generate a high-quality shot at the rim. If they do so, and the opponents’ center helps off Hartenstein to protect the rim, Hartenstein can simply stampede into a 45 Cut and finish in the paint. We saw how dangerous he is as an off-the-dribble driver in Delay — he’d only be more effective cutting into open space and stampeding into a catch-and-drive finish.

Hartenstein in the far slot can also be used to give Chet a higher role on offense — he has an entire side of the floor to work with as a self-creator away from any other big clogging the paint. This would allow him to work on one of his other weaknesses, attacking crossmatches, as the opponents’ 4 would automatically be matched up on him. Chet struggled with this in the playoffs as well, where he was unable to punish Dallas for crossmatching their tall wings (Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Josh Green) onto him and neutralizing the speed advantage he has off-the-dribble vs. bigs.

Chet already publicly mentioned working on punishing cross-matches on a Podcast P appearance earlier in the offseason. This gives him the chance to work on it in-game.

Some may criticize double-big lineups for this simple fact that Chet is matched up onto 4s instead 5s, where he’s at his best attacking slower-footed bigs. An opposing perspective is that this forces him to learn to win off-the-dribble versus tall wings and forwards, bumping his development at age-22. It’s not like defenses would’ve stopped crossmatching defenders onto him if Hartenstein weren’t there and he was the lone big. It didn’t stop Dallas. Hartenstein’s presence just forces Chet to develop these skills now instead of later.

The Defensive Floor Raising

Everything I’ve talked about thus far details how Hartenstein raises the Thunder’s ceiling on only the offensive side of the ball. He accomplishes this by improving their overall offense (adding a connective DHO piece and motion offense to fight stagnation), making life easier for Shai and JDub as creators (screen-setting), and accelerating Chet’s development (forcing him to shoot quicker and punish crossmatches).

The scary part is that Oklahoma City didn’t just pursue Hartenstein because he’s some elite offensive player. He’ll add immense value with his screening and perpetual motion, but at the end of the day, he averaged 11.6 points per 75 possessions and had a +0.7 Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (82nd percentile) last season. The offensive impact of non-volume scorers will always be capped.

Rather, the main reason OKC brought him in was with the vision of fixing their poor non-Chet minutes and offering flexibility versus specific opponents (ex: opponents who rebound the ball especially well).

One of the Thunder’s biggest issues last season was their non-Chet minutes. During the regular season, the Thunder had an 8.6 net rating with Holmgren on the floor and a 5.2 net rating with him off, a +3.4 swing. That dropoff was exacerbated in the playoffs and especially against Dallas where they had a 4.4 net rating with him on the floor and a -15.2 without, a +19.6 swing. Sure, it was a small six-game sample size. But it was a playoff series that showed how vulnerable they were without Chet on the floor and Jaylin Williams as the lone big. That’s since Jaylin Williams is neither a good shooter nor a vertical threat on offense while being a liability on defense.

With Hartenstein carrying the load in the non-Holmgren minutes instead, they’ll have a better bench offense but also at least one dominant paint defender on the floor for all 48 minutes. There should be no reason for neither of them to be on the court outside of garbage time and injuries.

Last season, Hartenstein was:

• 7th in defensive field-goal percentage on shots defended in the restricted area (56.7%)
• 3rd in points per possession allowed defending the pick-and-roll as a big (0.946 PPP)
• 2nd in defensive estimated plus-minus (+3.9)

At 6-foot-9, it’s not even Jaylin Williams’ fault he’s a poor defender. He has really solid technique as a pick-and-roll defender, especially on hedge and recovers, and draws charges at a historic rate. But as an undersized big who lacks vertical pop, he’s extremely limited. Not Hartenstein though.

Hartenstein is one of the best paint defenders in the NBA thanks to his elite drop coverage and rim protection, and will be able to play more aggressive ball screen coverages consistently now with OKC’s elite secondary rim protection in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and even Cason Wallace there to cover for him. He’s a very capable defensive anchor by himself, which significantly raises the Thunder’s defensive floor. But it becomes even scarier in the minutes paired with Holmgren.

Either of them can act as the pick-and-roll big defender while the other plays the role of a ‘roamer’ who protects the backline second layer of defense. A ballhandler somehow managed to get to the rim past an Alex Caruso-Isaiah Hartenstein defended PnR? Cool. Have fun meeting Chet Holmgren at the rim as a reward.

Double-big lineups with Hartenstein and Holmgren also means you can’t completely remove primary rim protection with offensive scheme. See 5 Slot, where a defense’s center is placed at the far slot to neutralize the impact of their rim protection. In that case, Holmgren is just the low man, and he rotates over from the corner to protect the rim while Hartenstein is agile enough to closeout towards the corner. Or vice-versa.

The amount of versatility and optionality Hartenstein tabs for Oklahoma City is truly hard to overstate. Whether or not he’ll start has been a big discussion point since his initial signing. I think it just depends on who the opponent is. He may start on some nights and he may come off the bench on some nights, that’s not what really matters. It’ll be matchup-dependent — dependent on what the opponent entails on any given night.

What matters is that the Thunder even have the flexibility to be able to adapt to opponents like this. Last year, they had a strict selection of skillsets and a strict selection of players that made it tough for them to adapt from matchup-to-matchup. They were superb at what they were excellent at, like forcing turnovers where they led the league (15.8 turnovers forced per game, 0.9 more than second place), but were unable to effectively go big against heavy-rebounding units (i.e. Dallas Mavericks) or heavy-post up units (i.e. Denver Nuggets) since Jaylin Williams-Chet Holmgren double-big lineups just didn’t accomplish much.

Now, Hartenstein brings a fresh dose of rebounding (87th percentile defensive rebounding, 98th percentile offensive rebounding) and 1-on-1 post defense, all while maintaining OKC’s year-over-year focus on turnover-generation as he ranked fourth among qualifying centers in steals per game (1.2) and steal percentage (2.3%, 89th percentile overall). This is what enables the newfound optionality for Oklahoma City to tweak lineups depending on opponent strengths and weaknesses, which is far more useful than setting in stone the five starters for all 82-plus games.

At the end of every conversation surrounding Hartenstein’s transition to Oklahoma City, they all circle back to one thing: versatility. The addition of Hartenstein makes OKC more versatile. Whether it’s the connective DHO hub he is that adds another release valve, the motion offense he can bring that fights stagnation, the defensive floor raising he provides as a 1-man bench anchor, or the rebounding and additional size that he brings as a starter, he does all of these things very additively and without taking anything away from what the Thunder have been building for the past four years. This creates lineup optionality and lineup versatility. And versatility is what wins championships.

For that reason alone — how Hartenstein plugs holes that needed fixing without creating new ones, thus, making them more versatile — he’s worth every penny that he was paid and will be the difference-maker for the Oklahoma City Thunder during the 2024-25 season.

The post Inserting Some Hart Into The Thunder appeared first on Swish Theory.

Another advantage NFL draft analysts find with the sheer volume of picks is the ability to pick up on tendencies for certain teams and GMs. One or two NFL drafts can amass a large enough sample to begin drawing conclusions. That isn’t the case for the NBA draft, as many teams end with two or fewer selections.

My inspiration for this project comes from a series created by an Indianapolis Colts beat writer by the name of Zach Hicks, who predicts the Colts’ draft choices by observing past trends for combine measurables and stats. I adore this series (and if you happen to be a Colts/NFL Draft fan reading this, you will too) and wanted to emulate it for basketball.

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s General Manager, Sam Presti, joined the franchise in 2007. He’s the longest-tenured GM in the NBA by a huge margin, becoming lionized in drafting/rebuilding circles. We have a notable sample of Presti draft picks, which can lead us to discover some of his tendencies and preferences. 

Since joining the Seattle Supersonics in 2007, Presti drafted and kept 31 players. We’ll include Lu Dort for his significance, bringing our sample to 32. That’s not nearly large enough to draw definitive conclusions but we can begin to notice trends emerging. 

To predict how the Thunder will draft going forward, I collected measurable and statistical data for each OKC draft pick. The data was collected and analyzed from a prospect’s draft season. A career ranking may result in slight changes that could make up an entirely new project. All stats are from the NBA, Barttorvik and Basketball Reference. Some stats aren’t available for certain international/non-NCAA prospects, so we’ll do the best with what we have.

After analyzing the past 15 years of draft data, these are the factors Sam Presti seems to consider most:

Wingspan: 

Presti’s wingspan has become somewhat infamous and there’s truth behind that. In his 17 years with OKC, Presti has drafted just three players with a +2 or lower height-to-wingspan differential, those being Mitch McGary (2014), Josh Giddey and Tre Mann (2021).

The Thunder weaponize their basketball condors to wreck shop on both ends of the ball. Even after some philosophy shifts over the past four or five seasons, it’s clear how much he values length in prospects, especially guards and wings. Jalen Williams (+10), Keyontae Johnson (+8), Cason Wallace (+6) and Chet Holmgren (+6) all fit the wingspan trope.

Age:

Youth is a critical indicator of star upside and general NBA success and development in the draft and Presti knows this. Prospects who break out early are more likely to be stars and great players alike. Presti has never drafted a 22+ year-old in the top 20 picks. His oldest lottery pick is Jalen Williams (21.2) and his average lottery pick is under 20.

He’s drafted only six 22+ year-olds at all, those being McGary (pick 21, 2014), Josh Huestis (29, 2014), Aaron Wiggins (54, 2021), Devon Hall (53, 2018), Keyontae Johnson (50, 2023) and Sasha Kaun (56, 2008).

As the Thunder push for titles, Presti’s philosophy could begin to shift, leaning towards older more NBA-ready prospects as evidenced by the JDub and Johnson picks. Still, we know Presti values youth, especially early and likely will continue to draft on the younger side of teams.

Productivity:

This isn’t referring to points per game specifically, but rather productivity in other manners. Most Presti picks perform well in advanced, all-in-one metrics. Of the 21 picks with available barttorvik BPM data, all but two (Hamidou Diallo, Lu Dort) posted above a +4.0 BPM.

Aside from more general metrics, Presti prospects tend to dominate statistically in at least one area, whether that be passing, shooting, rebounding or foul drawing. There will always be exceptions, but drafting good basketball players tends to pay off in the long run.

Feel: 

Whatever nebulous term we choose to define some kind of processing, court mapping and instinctual indicators will be a challenge to quantify. Presti prospects do well in assist-to-turnover and assist rate metrics, especially the guards and wings.

This is a point of philosophy shift, as the post-2019 “Rebuild Era” shifted the premium away from raw athletic tools (Diallo, Ferguson, etc) and towards smart basketball players. The average post-2019 Presti pick has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 (but a low assist rate interestingly, dragged down by bigs and Dieng).

OKC’s basketball vision relies on smart players who make quick decisions and process the floor in real-time. It’s the backbone of the roll replace offense and their aggressive defense and Presti will align with that philosophy.

Physicality: 

Physicality best manifests in stats like free-throw rate and rebounding rate which Presti prospects tend to have. Free-throw rate projects driving, finishing and creation as well as any other indicator; Thunder picks in the sample average a strong 31 free-throw rate and guards especially draw fouls prolifically.

Thunder prospects also tend to display a baseline of rebounding ability on the defensive end, indicating verticality, size and motor. Only Terrance Ferguson (4.5%), Alex Abrines (9.1%) and Russell Westbrook (8.4%) rebounded below 10% of their team’s shots during their minutes.

Shooting: 

The Rebuild era marks another shift for Presti in a slightly greater prioritization of shooting as well as feel. Since 2020, Oklahoma City’s draft picks averaged 34% on threes compared to 25.5% before 2020. They’ll still draft inefficient shooters like Giddey (29.3%), Dieng (27.1%), and Jaylin Williams (23.9%). 

For projecting shooting growth, volume is a far more reliable indicator and Presti values this now more than ever. Even if they didn’t shoot well, all recent Presti picks shot the ball, especially for bigs/taller players. In the pre-rebuild era, Presti drafted seven players with a three-point attempt rate below 10 compared to zero post-2020.

Historically, Presti’s draft picks don’t indicate a strong valuation of scoring efficiency or usage. OKC drafts all over the place in terms of true shooting and usage, anywhere from Ferguson (16.2% usage, 47% true shooting) to James Harden (32.6% usage, 60.7% true shooting.

Many scouts regard steal and block rates as important indicators of defensive potential. That isn’t a trend in Oklahoma City’s selections, as the steal (2.2%) and block (3.1%) rates hover around average.

Based on those numbers, here’s what an average Presti draft pick’s stats and measurables look like, sorted by position: 

Guards (11): 199.3 lbs, +5.3 WS differential, 20.1 years, 7.4 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 35 free throw rate, 38.2 three-point attempt rate, 14.4% defensive rebound rate

Wings (12): 206.1 lbs, +6.1 WS differential, 20.7 years, 5.7 BPM. 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, 27.8 free throw rate, 37.2 three-point attempt rate, 15.6% defensive rebound rate

Bigs (9): 238,8 lbs, +3.9 WS differential, 20.7 years, 7.6 BPM, 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, 48.2 free throw rate, 8.0 three-point attempt rate, 23% defensive rebound rate

It’s worth averaging out Presti’s picks post-2019 as well given the notable philosophy toward higher-feel players:

“Rebuild Era” (12): 202.7 lbs, +4.8 WS differential, 20.2 years, 7.2 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 29 free throw rate, 37.5 three-point attempt rate, 20.6% defensive rebound rate

Some outliers skew these averages and it’s still not a large enough sample size to feel fully confident, but these numbers provide an interesting baseline and range for Presti’s most valued prospect traits.

Based on Presti’s past drafting tendencies, who are the Thunder most likely to draft in 2024? Currently, OKC sits at 12. Presti loves trading up and down the board, so we will discuss more prospects than those likeliest to be available at 12 and some second-rounders at the end. After analyzing the data with a weight on the factors Presti values most — wingspan, age and BPM especially — I’ve come up with my best guesses at who the Thunder will value.

This is NOT my prediction for who the Thunder will draft. Presti’s philosophies have evolved and his priorities may shift, especially regarding drafting older prospects, as OKC turns to championship contention mode. I’ll provide context for each prospect as some of them will be more or less likely to be OKC picks than the data suggests.

*THE PERFECT PRESTI PROSPECTS*

Stephon Castle, Wing/Guard, UConn

Numbers to know: +3.5 WS (6’9’), 5.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 37.9 FTr, 12% DRB, 25.9 3par

On paper, Stephon Castle is the prospect I’d wager Presti covets most. He checks every box: Castle is young, impactful on a great team, and long with great statistical indicators. Presti wings tend to shoot with more volume, but that’s the only knock you can find based on historical trends.

OKC would likely have to trade up to draft Castle, who some have projected as high as two to the Wizards. Castle’s desire to play point guard might also scare the Thunder off given their abundance of ball-handling talent in the backcourt and on the wing, so he might not grade as highly for OKC as his statistical profile suggests. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade-up for Castle if he slips a bit down the board.

Donovan Clingan, Center, UConn

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’6.5), 14.1 BPM, 20.3 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 47.8 FTr, 23.4% DRB, 2.7 3par

Castle’s college teammate thrives in almost all of the same areas as him; Clingan’s production at a young age, huge wingspan and excellent statistical indicators as a passer and athletically all speak to Presti’s preferences. He hasn’t drafted a non-shooting big since Dakari Johnson in 2015 but I’d imagine he would make an exception for Clingan.

Clingan also feels like a possible trade-up candidate for the Thunder as he’s been projected as high as number one to the Hawks. Like Castle though, pushing the chips in for Clingan to pair with Chet Holmgren long-term wouldn’t shock me. It’s not a move I would love as Holmgren is best as a five and Clingan’s spacing is a concern, but the physicality and rim protection he’d add would be immense.

Kel’el Ware, Center, Indiana

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’4.5), 8.1 BPM, 20.2 y/o, 1.0 a:to, 41.9 FTr, 26.1% DRB, 12.5 3par 

Before this exercise, Ware wasn’t a prospect I expected to rank highly for Presti’s history. I haven’t seen him linked to the Thunder at all, but it makes perfect sense on deeper inspection. Ware shares all of the same profile strengths as Clingan — wingspan, BPM, youth, feel and interior goodness. Unlike Clingan, Ware spaced the floor in college to varying degrees throughout his career.

Ware likely will be on the board at 12 and the Thunder sticking and picking him makes sense based on Presti’s history and the current roster. His shooting fits more cleanly with OKC’s five-out offense than Clingan’s while maintaining similar defensive and interior scoring upside. I love this fit and think it’s one of the most likely options at 12 that most aren’t discussing.

Ja’Kobe Walter, Guard/Wing, Baylor

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’10), 4.4 BPM, 19.8 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 48.9 FTr, 12.3% DRB, 57.2 3par

If I had to submit an official guess based on Presti’s past selections for the Thunder’s pick at 12, history says it should be Walter. Like those in this tier, he’s extremely long and young with statistical indicators aligning with the data, though his BPM would be on the lower end for Presti picks. 

Lottery is too high for Walter by my evaluation, as his lack of offensive juice outside of off-ball shooting and defensive problems make for a limited ceiling. I’m not sure the Thunder would look to add another questionable playmaker off of the bounce after the Mavericks exposed some of their perimeter creation issues, though. Presti could believe in his three-and-D skillset on the wing and pick him at 12 even if he’s the least likely of the top four fits to end up on OKC to me.

*STRONG PRESTI FITS*

Ron Holland, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’10.75), 19 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 41.7 FTr, 16.2% DRB, 21.3 3par

We won’t have BPM numbers for non-NCAA prospects which adds some uncertainty for them. Holland looks like a classic Presti wing given his youth, elite athletic and physical tools statistical indicators. His shooting and assist/turnover numbers lag a bit behind most Thunder wing selections.

For myself and many others, Holland is a top-two prospect in the class and should be the pick if he falls on the principle of valuing the best talent available. There’s a strong chance he isn’t on the board at 12 but if he is, I don’t think Presti would let his slide continue.

Tyler Smith, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 19.6 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 30.5 FTr, 15% DRB, 36.3 3par

Draft analysts don’t associate Tyler Smith with the Thunder often, but his profile cleanly fits their type. Smith is young with a long wingspan, excellent shooting numbers and solid rebounding, passing and free-throw drawing stats. Selecting Smith might be likely in a trade-down scenario, but snagging him at 12 and valuing his size and spacing potential is a possible outcome for the Thunder.

Devin Carter, Guard, Providence

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’8.75), 11.4 BPM, 22.3 y/o, 1.3 a:to 37.6 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 48.2 3par

Carter’s case to be the pick at 12 fascinates me. He’d be the oldest player Presti has ever picked in the lottery but he fits every other indicator best of all prospects in the entire draft: gargantuan wingspan, insane BPM, foul drawing, passing, shooting, you name it. 

If the rumors about Chicago’s promise are true, Carter might not be an option. One could argue his skillset overlaps some with Cason Wallace, who the Thunder spent a lottery pick on last year. But if he falls to 12, my gut feeling is that Presti would draft Carter, valuing his current skillset for a Thunder team hoping to contend for titles now.

DaRon Holmes II, Center/Forward, Dayton

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 21.9 y/o, 11.5 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 72.4 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 20.8 3par

Aside from his age — Holmes would also be the oldest Presti lottery pick by almost a year — DaRon Holmes is a Thunder big. He’s functionally long and dominated college basketball as a consensus All-American, showcasing the playmaking, handling and spacing requisite of modern bigs.

Holmes profiles closest to a PJ Washington/Aaron Gordon acolyte in this draft and he seamlessly fits OKC’s roster and philosophy on both ends. A big who thrives as a perimeter handler with some interior versatility would have changed the calculus for the Thunder in the postseason. I would not be stunned if the Thunder reached for Holmes at 12. The fit is that good, even if his age would be a trend-breaker.

*POSSIBLE PRESTI GUYS*

Tidjane Salaun, Wing/Forward, Cholet

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’2), 18.9 y/o, 0.7 a:to, 27 FTr, 15.5% DRB, 53.1 3par

If Presti dips back into the raw French wing well, Salaun will probably be the pick. He’s one of the youngest players in the whole draft with an elite wingspan and well-rounded indicators. European prospects often record lower assist numbers due to stricter assist counting than American hoops, accounting for the lower assist-to-turnover ratio.

Salaun likely wouldn’t contribute much on day one, His two-way upside is immense and he’d provide a strong contingency plan on the wings for the coming seasons if Salaun ends up as the pick. 

Yves Missi, Center, Baylor

Numbers to know: +3 WS (7’2), 20.1 y/o, 5.8 BPM, 0.3 a:to, 60.4 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 0 3par

Missi performs well in many of the main Presti philosophy points: solid wingspan, youth and BPM production. His poor shooting and playmaking numbers don’t fit with Presti’s recent center picks as he seems to prioritize more “modern” perimeter-oriented bigs. As we mentioned with Clingan, Missi makes more sense at 12 if Presti wants to move towards more “traditional bigs” to add size and rebounding in the frontcourt.

Zach Edey, Center, Purdue

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’10.75), 22.3 y/o, 15.5 BPM. 0.9 a:to. 80.9 FTr, 25.5% DRB, 0.1 3par

We can draw parallels between Edey and Missi’s alignment with Presti’s history. Edey is much older than Missi with more production and similar playmaking and floor spacing hangups. The National Player of the Year’s enormous wingspan, BPM and foul-drawing numbers will all entice Presti. His size, rebounding and interior presence are tailor-made to help OKC, though I’m skeptical he’s the pick due to his age and lack of a shooting presence.

Kyle Filipowski, Forward/Center, Duke

Numbers to know: – 0.25 WS (6’10.5), 20.6 y/o, 10.1 BPM, 1.3 a:to, 38.4 FTr, 22.6% DRB, 25.7% 3par

Sam Presti drafting a prospect with a negative wingspan would feel sacrilegious. But apart from length, Kyle Filipowski is a Presti big. He’s young, extremely productive with the requisite physicality, handling and spacing potential to play on the outside. I’m skeptical Presti goes for another short-armed prospect, though Filipowski’s fit as a perimeter threat and a physical rebounder and defender are ideal if he does make an exception.

Johnny Furphy, Wing, Kansas

Numbers to know: +0.5 WS (6’8), 19.6 y/o, 5.4 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 40.3 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 60.7 3par

Like Filipowski, Furphy slots in with recent Presti selections in every way but wingspan. If the Thunder want to add a young shooting wing with size, Furphy could be one of the better options. He’s most likely in a trade down and even then I wouldn’t bank on the Thunder to value Furphy as much as other longer, even more productive wings later in the draft where age hasn’t been as paramount for Presti.

Jared McCain, Guard, Duke

Numbers to know: +1.5 WS (6’3.5), 20.4 y/o, 7.6 BPM, 1.4 a:to, 23 FTr, 15.3% DRB, 55.4 3par

Presti drafted a shorter-armed guard in 2021 in Tre Mann who isn’t on the team three years later. McCain has youth (despite being an old freshman), BPM, assist and shooting numbers as strengths and he’d fit well as an off-ball shooting, secondary pick-and-roll guard next to Shai and Jalen Williams. But in a crowded OKC backcourt, McCain’s lack of length and physicality likely would lead the Thunder elsewhere. 

Dalton Knecht, Guard, Tennessee

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’9), 9.9 BPM. 23.2 y/o, 1,1 a:to, 35.4 FTr, 14.3% DRB, 40.6 3par

Knecht would be the third 23-year-old Presti draft pick in his Thunder tenure and the first inside the top 50 picks. That makes Knecht extremely unlikely at 12, though his wingspan meets the threshold and his statistical production for the important markers impress. I don’t expect OKC to strongly consider Knecht even if his plug-and-play offensive skillset would add juice on that end.

*UNLIKELY PRESTI FITS*

Matas Buzelis, Forward/Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +1 WS (6’10), 19.7 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 28.3 FTr, 17.1% DRB, 28.8 3par

Shorter arms, poor assist and turnover numbers and limited physicality/ strength mean Buzelis doesn’t match the Thunder’s usual type. Though Presti will draft rawer tall wings like Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski, they often have outstanding statistical indicators elsewhere. Other wing options like Salaun and Holland will probably entice Presti more than Buzelis.

Tristan Da Silva, Forward/Wing, Colorado

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’10.25), 6.2 BPM, 23.1 y/o, 1,3 a:to, 25.8 FTr, 13.7% DRB, 40.5 3par

Drafting Da Silva would depart from Presti’s typical philosophy; he’s already 23 with a mediocre wingspan and extremely poor rebounding and foul-drawing numbers for his size. Da Silva’s height, shooting and playmaking skill theoretically slot in perfectly to OKC’s offensive system and Presti may value his plug-and-play value. If he was the pick at 12 or even in a trade down, Da Silva would become a massive historical outlier.

Isaiah Collier, Point Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’4.75”), 3.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.3 a:to, 49.7 FTr, 8.7% DRB, 25.5 3par

Collier has arms on the shorter side, wasn’t incredibly productive by BPM and hits below thresholds on rebounding and three-point numbers for Presti guards. As much as I adore Collier, OKC has plenty of handling guards on the roster and others in this draft fit Presti’s tendencies. 

*THE ONE BIG ASTERISK*

Cody Williams, Wing/Forward, Colorado

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (7’1), 2.9 BPM, 19.6 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 39.7 FTr, 9.2% DRB, 21.1 3par

Looking solely at historical indicators, Cody Williams performs poorly compared to most Presti selections, especially in the lottery. His low BPM especially pops out and only his free-throw rate numbers are above the Thunder’s average. 

OKC will likely throw most of this out for obvious reasons, as keeping Jalen Williams around for as long as possible would be reason enough to draft Cody. Williams’ mid-season injury materially impacted his play, as he looked less explosive and confident after returning in January. 

If not for the injury, Williams likely fares much better in the Presti formula, especially given his huge wingspan and age. Cody is probably the most likely OKC pick at 12 and it’s as good a spot as any for him to develop physically and as a shooter.

If the Thunder trade down in the draft, here are some other prospects that fit Sam Presti’s historical type:

Dillon Jones, Guard/Wing, Weber St

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’11), 7.3 BPM, 22.7 y/o, 1.7 a:to, 45.4 FTr, 31% DRB, 23.7 3par

Jonathan Mogbo, Forward/Wing/Center, San Francisco

Numbers to know: +8 WS (7’2), 10.5 BPM. 22.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 32.2 FTr, 29.6% DRB, 0.1 3par

Isaac Jones, Forward/Center, Washington St

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’3), 6.7 BPM, 23.9 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 55.8 FTr, 19% DRB, 0.8 3par

Keshad Johnson, Wing, Arizona

Numbers to know: +7 WS (6’10.25), 7.1 BPM. 23 y/o, 1.2 a:to, 37.5 FTr, 14.8% DRB, 32.6% 3par

Bronny James, Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’7.25), -0.3 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 30.4 FTr, 15.1% DRB, 53.6 3par

Trey Alexander, Guard, Creighton

Numbers to know: +7 (6’10.5), 4.7 BPM, 21.2 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 20.8 FTr, 14.6% DRB, 35.2% 3par

The post OKC Thunder Draft Retrospective appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

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Jeremiah Robinson-Earl did it all on both ends for Villanova in his 16-8-2 campaign that got his name called two Junes ago. But with a set of measurements and an on-ball package that both lose some of their punch in the pros, finding a role in the NBA has been largely up to his versatility and intelligence.

Defense

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl’s biggest defensive strengths are adaptations around his physical shortcomings – starting with his attentiveness. Standing at just 6’9” with a neutral wingspan and a 32-inch max vert, a second too late could mean an inch too short. Spend any defensive possession just watching JRE and you’ll see how active and instructive his head and hands are – even when he isn’t directly involved in the action.

When he is involved in the play, JRE has to do more with each movement than a normal seven footer would have to. Just as animals have evolved to make themselves artificially bigger in the wake of predators, JRE has learned deimatic bluffs to appear like he’s covering the ball-handler, the roller, the rim, and everything in between. He shrinks the horizontal gap between ball and man with outstretched arms whilst simultaneously moderating the downhill gap by alternating opened and closed stances – tactically luring the ball-handler further or feinting a commitment.

His nimble footwork and balance when backpedaling, zippy (yet vertically limited) load time to leave his feet, and precise hand-eye ball-tracking are the cherries on top of his pristine and purposeful technique. The latter of the two you can also see in more general help defense settings, enabling him to seemingly guard two players are once.

All of this combines to be one of the most impressive drop coverage techniques in the league – with JRE out-punching his size by holding ball-handlers to just 0.743 points per possessions in 144 defended pick and rolls this season, according to Synergy. These successful results have consolidated JRE’s cover-versatile repertoire into primarily a drop for the time being. However, you’ll still catch JRE aggressively switching or hedging-and-recovering on a situational basis – and those same perimeter chops are also on full display when tasked with 1-on-1 matchups vs big wings like Julius or Zion.

But even with this all considered, JRE’s height is ultimately the ceiling for his defense – quite literally. Averaging 0.7 blocks per 70 possessions, the fruits of JRE’s labor play the probability game – similar to the likes of Daniel Theis or Isaiah Stewart – decreasing opponents’ chances of scoring, but never eliminating them entirely.

Offense

Robinson-Earl was a bucket-getting swiss army knife in his final year of college – balancing above-80th percentile efficiency in each of post-ups, spot-ups, cuts, isos, and finishing as a screener. But without the hops to rim-run or the height to post-up against NBA athletes, that multi-bladed arsenal has dampened to a dulled set of butter knives. JRE has traded the majority of his on-ball usage for spot-up shooting, where he’s spent 44.8% of his non-putback opportunities in the halfcourt. Growing in confidence, he’s been hot and unhesitant from beyond the arc to start the year, nailing 38.2% of 68 attempts – although is likely closer to his career average of 36.1%.

As much as I hate how the “Will-He-Shoot?” question reduces talented players to a single dimension, reviving the vestiges of JRE’s collegiate on-ball game will rely almost entirely on his shot becoming respectable. As we’ve seen from late-bloomers Wendell Carter Jr. and Grant Williams, convincing hard closeouts creates driving lanes, and driving lanes create chances to reopen latent ball skills. Intriguing driving flashes do exist, but shooting is still JRE’s clear primary tendency off the catch – not to mention, he’s already been called on 3 traveling violations trying to put the ball on the ground. If not a shooter long-term, he’d likely be better off upping his dive/cut frequency on these chances like his teammates Wiggins, Giddey, and Kenrich.

A viable off-catch game would paint JRE more as a wing than a big on offense, which I think is worth exploring with him not offering a ton as a screener. Without a bulky-enough frame to set high-contact screens, or above-the-rim rolling pop, JRE struggles to create advantages in the two-man game. But as a smart decision-maker, he’s been able to reclaim some value slipping screens, quick pitching, or reversing the ball to the second side – which all interest me – but it’s difficult to make a living on those skills alone unless the offense is committed to putting the ball in your hands a lot, which I don’t think see a SGA-Giddey-led team doing.

But smart players find a way more often than not, and JRE has discovered transition as a new way to add value. His most recent development has been upping his transition frequency from 11.5% to 20.7% of his total scoring chances this year – a great compliment to fast-break wizard Giddey. And with his ball skills still somewhere in his bag, eventually JRE may be the one sparking the break.

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