We are in the middle of the greatest era of parity in NBA history. With the Oklahoma City Thunder crowned champions, there have been seven different Finals winners in seven years, a new record; only once have we had five consecutive new winners. The days of the superteam and big market dominance are fading as chaos rules the contender circles. Projecting who is up next feels extremely difficult.

Even after a surprise Eastern Conference Finals run, the Pacers were not expected to come within one game of a championship. And they’re not the only surprise story in recent memory. The fifth-seeded Mavericks made it through the West last year. Everyone remembers the eighth-seeded Heat making it the year before, the third-seeded Warriors the year before that, the third-seeded Bucks the year before that, and the fifth-seeded Heat the year before that.

Granted, the line of delineation is strong. Four teams seeded fourth or lower have made the finals in the past six years, and all four lost. But we came so close to the exception this year. The point is that you can’t predict the future as you used to. Penciling in the Warriors and Cavaliers is no more. A surprise Conference Finals or Finals team is waiting out there, unknown to all.

I’m here to make the case that the Atlanta Hawks are the next surprise team.

The Aerial View

Okay, breathe. If you didn’t close the tab, you’re probably still laughing at me. I get it. The Atlanta Hawks? Contenders? In the National Basketball Association? It sounds ludicrous.

How soon we forget that these Hawks came within two wins of making the Finals just four years ago, when Trae Young scored 48 points on the road in Milwaukee to steal home court advantage in Game 1 of the ECF. I don’t blame you for writing that off as a blip: assuming Clint Capela walks in free agency, only two Hawks from that team remain: Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu.

The slate has been cleaned for a new iteration of that squad. The premise back then was simple: Trae’s ability to shoulder a colossal offensive load makes life easier for all the role players, allowing them to focus on defending hard and hitting shots. That premise hasn’t changed. But it comes with a new twist.

Bayou Bailout

Before getting into the construction of this team, it’s essential to acknowledge how we’ve gotten here in the last year. At this time last year, Atlanta was coming off a 36-win season. It was the third straight year their winning percentage had declined since that ECF appearance. Dejounte Murray hadn’t made the desired impact next to Trae Young one year into a four-year, $114 million extension. Things looked dire.

Then the New Orleans Pelicans stepped in.

Dejounte Murray was shipped to the Bayou in a package that included Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, EJ Liddell, and two first-round picks. The first pick was a 2025 Lakers choice that ended up 22nd overall, the second least favorable of New Orleans and Milwaukee in 2027. The last three players are all off the roster, but Dyson Daniels is going nowhere.

He finished second in DPOY voting in his first year with the Hawks. His breakout changed Atlanta’s fortunes significantly (if only someone had seen it coming!) That alone would make the Murray trade worth it. The way Atlanta used the picks afterwards only makes it look worse for New Orleans.

At the past trade deadline, Atlanta traded Bogdan Bogdanović for Terance Mann, Bones Hyland, and three second-round picks. That left them with Mann starting his three-year, $47 million veteran extension, an overpay for a low-impact wing. Packaging Mann and Georges Niang with that 22nd pick from New Orleans landed them Kristaps Porzingis earlier this week. Now they’ve gotten two impact starters for Murray, and still have a pick in 2027 to play with.

And, it may not be the worst trade for New Orleans between the two. During the 2025 NBA Draft’s first round, the Pelicans sent a 2026 unprotected pick and the 23rd pick to the Hawks for the 13th pick. Atlanta ended up taking Georgia forward Asa Newell at 23, who they were rumored to be eyeing at 13. And now they have a pick almost sure to be a lottery choice in next year’s loaded class at the top. The Hawks still came away with a useful rotation player and now own one of the most valuable assets any playoff-hopeful team owns.

To sum it up: by trading with the Pelicans, Atlanta turned Murray and the 13th pick into Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis, Asa Newell, a 2026 unprotected New Orleans first, a 2027 first from New Orleans or Milwaukee, and a second-round pick from the Celtics. That’s the rock upon which this Hawks team is built. The fallout from these two trades will echo for these franchises throughout the next decade or more.

Offseason Additions

Kristaps Porzingis was Atlanta’s big domino. I’d be surprised if they got a bigger name or impact player. That’s no knock on Kristaps; his +3.6 EPM last season was a 96th-percentile mark. He’s been in the 96th or 97th percentile four years running. But their powder remains dry, with many avenues for addition. But more on why he is a great fit later.

Atlanta had three primary weapons at their disposal this offseason: a $25M trade exception (from the Dejounte deal – gift that keeps giving), a $13M trade exception (Bogdan deal), and the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for $14M. They used those financial weapons to make some significant additions.

First and foremost, Atlanta used the Murray exception to pick up Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I’m not saying the Hawks read my writing, but that’s two straight offseasons where they’ve picked up one of my Finding a Role breakout candidates. Hawks, I’m on to you. The terms of the sign-and-trade are window dressing to fit him into the exception. They sent a far-off second-round pick. Well worth it to add a high-level rotation player without counting against the cap.

NAW fits so perfectly into the vision Atlanta is outlining. He is a confident shooter who is lights out from the corners and is passable from above the break. While turnover-prone, he is an aggressive passer who can make reads above expectation for an off-ball wing. I love his floor sense and the way he moves around to find spots offensively. And that’s not where his value comes from.

2025 was something of a down year statistically, but he is an elite perimeter defender. NAW had 94th and 98th defensive EPM marks in 2023 and 2024. He’s one of the best screen navigators in the league and gives Atlanta another exceptional perimeter defense option alongside Dyson Daniels. Atlanta hit it out of the park getting Alexander-Walker, and they weren’t done there.

Since this deal folds into a trade exception, they retained the full mid-level exception. That gave them room to add another rotation player, and they did so in getting Luke Kennard. Part of my offseason wishlist was getting a genuine shooter; few are better than Kennard. Few players are better at high-volume above-the-break three-point shooting than Kennard. He’s not much of a defender, but Atlanta has the infrastructure to insulate him, even as a bench piece.

It’s wise to get him on a one-year deal. Trade exceptions are significant, but the bill comes due the following year. Trae Young has a player option after the upcoming season, and Dyson Daniels also needs to get paid. Between Porzingis and Kennard, that’s over $40 million in expiring money. If this team doesn’t meet expectations, they have avenues to retool with or without Trae Young. But I am entirely sold on this team, and let’s get into why.

Pulling Elements from Contenders

Atlanta is pulling pieces together, but what is the vision? When I see the NBA Finals teams, I see two formulas the Hawks are trying to emulate. Let’s get into how they’re trying to imitate the Thunder first.

We all know the Thunder won a championship with elite defense. But the elements building that defense are interesting. They have tons of depth, going from an incredible defensive starting lineup to bench pieces like Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso. These players have size, enormous wingspans, and are super athletic. Most importantly, they steal the ball like crazy. OKC led the league in steals per game, fueling their transition offense where those athletes could get out and run.

You know who was second in steals? The Atlanta Hawks. Almost a third of those came from Dyson Daniels alone, who had the best pilfering season of the 21st century. This isn’t some gimmick one-off. Look at their new projected starting lineup next to Trae Young: 6’8″ Dyson Daniels, 6’8″ Zaccharie Risacher, 6’9″ Jalen Johnson, and 7’2″ Kristaps Porzingis. That unit averaged a combined 7.2 steals per game last season. Together, and healthy, I’d expect that number to go up.

The big element is how this benefits Trae. He’s a better defender than people give him credit for, but still not great. If your weak link can get steals on the ball or work in passing lanes off the ball while the other four cover up for him, that’s an additive value. It’s the same thing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does for the Thunder. Granted, he’s about half a foot taller, but that’s the tradeoff for what Trae brings offensively. And that’s where the Pacers’ formula comes into play.

If you want to find the next team to win with pace, look at the Hawks. They were third in pace this past season. Trae Young’s presence will always boost your speed and playmaking; Atlanta also finished second in total assists per game. But it’s not about having one high-level ball mover; it’s about others that keep that flow in motion. After their offseason moves, Atlanta can have as many as nine players who averaged multiple assists per game.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are good secondary ball movers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard both find the right swing passes. Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu have above-average feel for the center spot. The new additions can multiply this team’s collective court feel to create a Pacers-esque environment where everyone can pass in a pinch. Coach Quin Snyder should push this team to keep the ball moving after Trae or Jalen create advantages.

The secret to the Pacers was ball movement without carelessness. Indiana as a team finished third in assists per game with the third-lowest turnover rate. The Thunder were the same; though they didn’t share the ball movement prowess of the Pacers, they had the ball stolen from them less than any NBA team.

This leads to the problems the Hawks have to solve to attempt to emulate these contenders. They coughed the ball up a LOT last year. Trae Young is a very risky passer, and while it often pays off, it leads to a lot of transition going the other way. Atlanta needs to build an environment of smarter ball handlers so they can tip the transition scales in their favor. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, steals are only increasing in their value. If Atlanta can keep a top-five steal rate while getting an average turnover rate, they’ll have a huge advantage.

Atlanta checked every box on the wishlist. Kristaps gives them elite center size, will stretch the floor in high PNR, and can swing the ball. Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives them multiple elite perimeter defenders, increasing their depth and lineup optionality. Kennard gives them a lights-out shooter. And they did all this while staying under the tax and adding future assets. It’s an absurd coup of an offseason to get significantly better in the short AND long term.

Draft Additions

Luckily for me, we have a Hawks and draft expert on hand at the Swish Theory. Why talk about things I’m not as qualified to discuss as our own Ahmed Jama? So, here are Ahmed’s thoughts on the Asa Newell addition.

My favorite aspect of the Asa Newell pick (besides the additional draft capital the team acquired in the process) is that the team already has proof of concept with the role Asa projects to play. Newell is a relentless rebounder who finishes extremely well at the rim, projects to be a credible lob threat, and should be able to guard every frontcourt position.

For Hawks fans, this sales pitch should sound familiar and reminiscent of a recently departed Hawk, John Collins. Although the tail end of Collins’ tenure may have left a bitter taste in the mouth of fans who’d expected a more linear development in Collins’ finishing and decision making, Collins undeniably outperformed his draft position. And if Asa Newell could contribute close to Collins’ level during his Hawks tenure, this would be an undeniable win for the team.

However, a few roadblocks are standing in the way of Newell achieving the level of success John Collins was able to reach during his time with the Hawks. First, we must begin with what defined Collins’ tenure with the Hawks: rim-running. Even though Newell finished 19th in the country in total dunks (3rd amongst freshmen), he was far from an effective rim-runner this past season. Newell finished the season scoring 0.931 PPP (points per possession) on rolls to the basket, and was in the 23rd percentile in efficiency in the ‘P&R Roll-Man’ playtype.

When considering these numbers, discussing the context of the team Newell played in the past season is essential. Georgia had some of the worst guard play of any high-major team. Their guards were both ineffective as scorers and inconsistent as facilitators. This personnel, paired with a highly congested and stagnant offense this past season, erased clean rolls to the basket for Newell and drastically affected the degree of difficulty on these plays. But despite Newell’s inefficiency as a roller, he still managed to finish over 70% at the rim, which is truly impressive for someone who wasn’t a full-time big. Newell was so effective as a finisher because of his persistence on the glass.

Newell’s offensive rebounding prowess could also be a boon to the Hawks’ defense. While the Hawks finished as the 18th-ranked defense by Defensive Rating, they were tied for 21st in fastbreak points allowed. Opponents, not fearing the Hawks’ mediocre offensive rebounding unit, predicated on an undersized frontcourt, could leak out and rack up easy baskets in transition. Newell’s presence on the offensive glass should limit these easy fastbreak opportunities for teams and establish a more physical identity in the frontcourt.

Overall, while Asa Newell may not be the flashiest player for the Hawks’ long-term future, I believe he can be an integral member of a frontcourt rotation, becoming increasingly capable of augmenting Trae Young’s strengths and compensating for his deficiencies. Although the Hawks are still lacking in size compared to most NBA frontcourts, Newell’s range defensively and ability to play in the open court add to the identity of a team that finished 3rd in pace this past season, even without Jalen Johnson and his grab-and-go talents for a large swath of the season. Asa Newell is the rare draft pick who fits into both the best player available AND best fit categories for the Hawks. And putting my draft analyst cap aside for a moment, it is truly refreshing to see the front office make such a shrewd move.

Internal Growth

One crucial element to remember here: the youth of this team. Kristaps Porzingis is now the oldest Hawk at 30 years old. Kennard is 29, NAW and Trae are 27, Okongwu is 25, Jalen is 24, Dyson is 22, and Risacher is 20. The vast majority of this rotation is on the upswing.

Sure, Porzingis is getting bogged down by injury. Trae has remained at a fringe All-NBA level for years. Kennard is what he is. But the rest of this team has more meat on the bone. I am bullish on more offensive growth for Dyson Daniels and NAW. Jalen Johnson should compete for an All-Star spot as his explosive development continues. Risacher now has a year under his belt and can get more bench minutes. Onyeka Okongwu continues to get better as he shifts to a backup role.

If these players stopped developing, this would still be a strong team. And I’d be willing to bet that more of them will progress than regress. Development isn’t linear, but they have a great core that’s young and flexible.

I love how the Hawks have positioned themselves to make a deep run in the upcoming season and, if they’re lucky, for years to come. Get on the hype train now before it leaves the station.

The post Atlanta Hawks: The NBA’s Next Sneaky Contender appeared first on Swish Theory.

Okay, it’s not the history you’ll read in social studies class, or even on Basketball Reference. Barlow has the distinction of being the first player out of the Overtime Elite program to make it to the NBA.

Barlow broke into the league with the Spurs in 2022 as an UDFA on a two-way deal, more or less an afterthought on a team bad enough to secure the services of Victor Wembanyama in the subsequent draft. He played a similar role this past season from the end of the roster before hitting free agency, much to the chagrin of my Spurs-supporting friends.

Followers of this series are probably thinking about how Barlow is a bit of a shift from the usual kind of player I cover. Most of the others were higher picks with a few years of serious rotation minutes under their belt. So out of the roughly 500 players to step on an NBA floor each given year, why does Dom get my focus?

I’m drawn to non-traditional skills like a moth to a lamp. Even in a limited sample size, Barlow showed off his unique blend of size, touch, movement skill, and versatility. I want to dive into the tape to explain why the Atlanta Hawks may have spun gold out of thin air by signing Barlow.

Offensive Overview

The reverse shooting splits in the paint jumped out to me first about Barlow’s offensive profile. If I told you about a 6-foot-10 220-pound bouncy big man, you’d assume his rim finishing numbers were solid and the touch was lacking. The reverse has been true so far in Barlow’s career.

Dom has finished 62% of his rim looks in his career, 29th and 15th percentile marks for bigs across his first two years respectively. Yet he’s at 42% on short midrange looks (4-14 foot distance) over that same span, taking a huge jump from his rookie year (4/17) to his sophomore (19/38). That 50% mark last season represented an 81st-percentile mark and did not look like a fluke on the tape. To boot, Barlow is 7/15 in the long midrange for his career and 2/7 from deep. It’s unusual for a big in the modern NBA to find their most efficient spots in the midrange.

Barlow showed some important statistical development in other areas as well. His assist rate jumped from 7.1% to 12.7% while cutting his turnover rate by more than half (15.3% to 7.3%). His usage rate increased while his assist/usage rate followed, a good sign of a developing feel on the floor. In fact, Barlow’s 0.90 assist/usage ratio this past season was a 90th percentile mark for bigs.

Granted all of these stats come with a major sample size caveat. Does a 2/7 mark from deep make him a budding Brook Lopez? Do improving playmaking figures make him Marc Gasol reincarnate? They do not. Yet it shows development on the whole without much change in context. The only major change to San Antonio’s roster was the demigod we know as Victor’s arrival, and the two only shared the court for 16 total possessions. This is a story of a player growing rapidly despite the frantic mess of lineups around him.

Most importantly, San Antonio’s offense was 9.8 points per 100 possessions better with Barlow on the floor. That’s a 99th-percentile mark and shows that he can fit in with a competent half-court unit.

I’ve explained the what. Now it’s time to see the how.

Screen-Based Actions

When you play on a team with Trae Young, get ready to learn screen and roll buddy. Barlow presents an interesting change from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, two fairly traditional roll-and-slam kind of guys (moreso Capela than OO) because he is best used on the short roll. The screen, catch, and push shot combo was arguably his best action last year.

That kind of intermediate touch brings issues for whatever kind of pick-and-roll coverage you deploy. It’ll always be available against drop coverage, and if two go to the ball screen he can organize himself for a quality shot before the defense can recover. That could be very valuable playing off Ice Trae.

Barlow also has a unique habit of fading off the baseline if the dunker spot looks aren’t there after his roll is finished. One could argue he went to this position too easily, but it was effective nonetheless.

Things get murkier on more traditional screen-and-rolls. The athleticism does give him a major boost when given a clear lane, and he’s able to explode to the cup before help can arrive. There have even been some solid possessions where he dives to the dunker spot and can get off a solid finish, usually if the big man commits to the handler.

Where it gets rough is when help presents itself or the big can recover and contest his shot. That’s when the woeful rim finishing figures rear their ugly head.

There are glimpses of the right footwork, and we know the touch is there. Barlow’s main problem is chaining the sequence together from footwork to finish and being able to bully his man into better spots. It’s a unique problem for a modern big, working on their finishing from the outside in as opposed to inside out.

Barlow showed a couple of flashes as a playmaker out of the roll. Though I would have liked to see more, it’s nice to see that he is indeed capable.

The sense of screening angles and playmaking stands out a lot more in these sets. San Antonio loves to run multiple handoff looks, including a heavy dose of “Delay” sets, requiring the big to evaluate multiple options in quick succession. This gave a better glimpse into Barlow’s floor sense.

I came away even more impressed with his sense of when to pitch the handoff. This gives him extra time to find the right angle and less time for the defender chasing the ballhandler to react. He showed more of a willingness to put his body into the screens, where he was a tad more contact-averse setting pick and rolls. The heightened sense of floor reading also showed with a pinch of playmaking here and there.

That second clip stood out to me the most. Rejecting two handoff options in quick succession, flowing to the third, and tossing a nice backdoor bounce pass. That’s an impressive combination of process and execution from a big who has only been able to legally drink for two months.

The feel showed even further with his sense of when to keep the ball on dribble handoffs when the opportunity presented itself.

Granted, the finishing isn’t where it needs to be on these plays. But he sees a chance to catch the defending big by surprise and takes it, which I like. The finishing issues still present themselves when he gets a chance to roll, but the bright spots are there.

There are real areas of improvement here to be had. The finishing stands out as a need of course, and a bit more willingness to kick back out to shooters once the help commits would be nice to see. What’s important is the foundation is there. Touch, processing, floor sense. Can’t build a house without laying the foundation first.

Cutting

Despite his age, Barlow has already mastered what I like to call the Kyle Anderson cut: drifting into open midrange space. It’s a great way to complement his midrange success.

Barlow also shows a good sense of when to make the more traditional big man cuts: finding the dunker spot, moving around drivers for space in the lane, and diving to the rim when space is afforded to him. Problems with the finishing are still there, but there was a lot more good than bad.

The good news about not being a huge scoring threat as a big is that people will forget about you. Barlow knows this and uses it to his advantage. That’s something I like to see in a young big.

Perimeter Play

This is where the fun begins.

We’ll get the bad out of the way early. Sometimes when Barlow drives, the finishing makes you want to avert your eyes.

The footwork, balance, and handle are all there especially when considering his size. It’s that pesky finishing once again coming back to bite.

But when it all comes together? That is a real sight to see.

A tight crossover. Deceleration into a finish. Even a smattering of left-handed finishes. All of the tools are there, even if they don’t always fall together at the same time.

How many 6’10” players with his frame can hold together a right-to-left crossover? Decelerate and not fall apart? Finish off hand? How many wouldn’t even want to try it? This is a huge factor in Barlow’s high-upside offensive skillset.

Oh, and he has some decent shooting form when called for.

There’s inconsistency. Some inefficiency. But we’re starting to see a complete skillset come into frame.

What else can he do?

Gap Filling

He didn’t often get the chance to show it, but Barlow looked awfully fleet of foot in transition when opportunities presented themselves. Sometimes he’d have to create the opportunity himself.

The finishing could get a bit complicated for him at times, but remember we’re here looking for ingredients, not the entire recipe.

On the post-up front, there’s not much to speak of. The lack of functional strength and finishing shows up in a bad way.

Barlow has also made his presence felt as an offensive rebounder from time to time. His offensive rebounding numbers are strong already, and he has more than enough hustle to outwork his opponents.

Finally, we have the playmaking out of structure. Making reads on the roll or from dribble handoffs is one thing. Improvising when initial actions don’t play out is another thing entirely.

In short, there are many possibilities and situations for Barlow to contribute. It’s all a matter of finding an offensive system where he can tap into that potential. And a Mikan drill or three wouldn’t hurt.

Role Fit

Offensively, Barlow is quite the departure from the two bigs ahead of him on the depth chart. Assuming he slots in as the third-string center (what I view as his best position), the on-ball skill and shooting touch seem to increase the further down the depth chart you go. Clint Capela’s offensive skillset would even be limited for a 1970s big man. Onyeka Okongwu is a bit more of a shooter, but one the defense will leave alone. Neither are real playmakers to speak of.

Barlow offers more of a short roll game, both as a midrange shooter and playmaker. Though his thump as a screener needs work, he can be a solid DHO tool with the added threat of his take-it-and-go game. Atlanta could benefit from a center who doesn’t mind putting the ball on the deck once in a while.

There’s a lot to like about this fit for both Atlanta and Barlow on the offensive end. He will certainly be seeing minutes, either as a 4 or a rotation replacement when Capela/Okongwu inevitably miss time. He’ll have the benefit of Trae Young’s PNR gravity and plenty of 30-foot rolls. Who better to create gravity on dribble handoffs than a lethal shooter like Bogdan Bogdanovic?

I can see great benefits for Barlow’s offensive game in Atlanta. A splash of variety can go a long way on a team starved for diverse skill sets. However, there is that other side of the floor…

Defensive Overview

Once again, despite the small sample size, this was an area of tangible growth.

Barlow managed to up his total stock rate, posting above-average marks in block and steal percentages. He also managed to cut his foul rate a hair AND up his defensive rebounding percentage. Now that’s some nice growth. But it may not be enough.

The talent and floor sense have been more difficult to translate to the defensive end of the floor. Granted, San Antonio did not have much in the way of defensive personnel and cohesion, but lineups with Barlow at center posted a 126.1 defensive rating. That doesn’t inspire much confidence.

I could cut clips of bad process and technique, lack of strength, and poor positioning. Trust me, they are there. But we’re talking about a 21-year-old center here who spent his first two seasons trying to claw his way out of a dumpster fire of a team. I’m here looking for progress, not perfection. So let’s see where the progress was made.

Pick-and-Roll/DHO Defense

In a similar vein to the sliding scale of offensive versatility, Barlow offers more ability (at least in theory) to be coverage versatile in screening actions than Capela and Okongwu. Granted, just about anyone is more coverage versatile than this version of Clint Capela, and injuries have limited Okongwu’s ability to contribute beyond drop coverage. But Atlanta plays the cards they are given, and Barlow gives them a chance at dealing a new hand.

He can make a difference as a drop defender. The size and short-area mobility are the requisite tools he already possesses. I’d like to see more improvement in his sense of angles and positioning but the foundation is there.

When it all comes together, he can make some pretty spectacular steals and blocks while situated in drop. The backpedaling skill in particular stood out to me.

What separates him from his new cohorts is his talent for making plays when showing to the level of the screen. Barlow is even comfortable flat-out switching on the handler, and can still make an impact with his mobility and reach. Often long enough to allow the defense to recover, and occasionally shutting down the action all by his lonesome.

He has a ways to go in these areas. It will take time – young bigs who are behind the curve defensively take years to get the reps and technique needed to be true difference-makers as a helper in screen actions. Yet much like his offensive game, the pieces of the puzzle are all there for Barlow. It’s a matter of putting them together in time.

And there are other areas where he has shown considerable promise.

Rotational Defending

Timing, patience, execution. That is what makes an elite rotational defender.

There are moments where all three elements elude Barlow, as sometimes he can get only one or two. But when all three come together, it is a sight to see.

A major component of that, when you’re a big, is sliding to protect the rim at the right times. The same three principles listed above all apply, and Barlow can put it all together from time to time.

It’ll need some work, as much of his game does. But the potential is there for a strong rotational defender to emerge.

Perimeter Defending

Though not his most called-upon skill, Barlow has shown some real flashes when taken out on an island. He’s got the foot speed and lateral agility to stay in front of some guards and wings, plus the strength to not get put under the rim by bigs trying to drive on him.

It’s an important arrow in the quiver for a big who projects to show and switch often. Many ballhandlers will see a big on a switch and choose to pull them back out to the perimeter with the intent of attacking in isolation. If Barlow can put doubt in their minds about his veracity as a perimeter weak point, that would be huge for his development.

Hitting the Glass

There’s no denying the defensive rebounding is a struggle point. But strides have been made, jumping from a 25th percentile rebounder his rookie year to 43rd percentile last year. There were marked improvements in his technique, namely a desire to box out consistently.

The aforementioned hustle he showed on the offensive glass was also present. Dom was more than willing to throw himself into a crowd or use every inch of his length to tip balls to finish off a defensive stop. I’d expect another jump to be made next year in his defensive rebounding numbers.

There’s a lot to like with the defensive game and a lot that needs time. Where does this leave him in the context of the Atlanta Hawks?

Role Fit

Outside of a healthy Onyeka Okongwu, an idea that comes with a great big asterisk, Atlanta’s big man room is filled with stiff bodies. None possess the combination of length, athleticism, and short-area movement skills that Barlow has.

How that translates remains to be seen. They do not have many defensive-minded guards, and the wings like Bogdan, DeAndre Hunter, and Zaccharie Risacher are a step slow or too slight to make a meaningful impact. In Hunter’s case, a slew of injuries take away much of that effectiveness. That will leave Barlow on an island often, tasked with containing both ballhandler and roller on many a screening action.

I fear that may prove a detriment to his development, being overtasked at such a young age when he has far to go defensively. I’d prefer a context where he can build from narrowed responsibilities into more. Yet there is a chance he can be forged in fire instead of hand-held on his journey of development.

From Atlanta’s perspective, Barlow offers the ability to mix screen coverages as needed. If a game calls for showing hard at the ballhandler or switching outright, he is more than capable of contributing. Of all teams to be in playoff contention the last several years, Atlanta is far and away the worst defensive unit. Any element of variability will be welcome in Quin Snyder’s rotation.

For a two-way free agent signing, Barlow is a strange case. Most two-ways who are his age and with his considerable upside are recent second-round draftees or priority undrafted free agents. Most who switch teams to take two-ways are grasping at their last chances in the league. It’s rare for a player of Dominick’s growing talent to find himself in this situation.

I’m quite high on Atlanta as a place to develop his offensive skills. It’s certainly less than ideal for his defensive growth, but the good news is defensive development is more in control of the player than offensive. If nobody can create offensive gravity, he won’t get very far. Having to fight on two fronts defensively because your guards are dying endlessly on screens and the rotation help is lackluster will hurt him, to be sure. That won’t completely hamper him from working on timing, patience, effort, and execution on that end.

I think both sides will benefit greatly from this partnership, and I’m excited to see Dominick seize his place in the league after showing promise in San Antonio. I will be seated and watching.

The post Finding a Role: Dominick Barlow appeared first on Swish Theory.

This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.

Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.

Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.

Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.

Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.

Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

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