The draft is one of three paths to building a team, and arguably the most important for teams in smaller markets deemed less attractive to free agents and disgruntled stars who may demand trades, but only if they hand-pick their next team. This is due to the team-controlled 7-years and the value of finding impact players on rookie deals during this upcoming salary crunch around the league.

My Scouting Process is simple: Film, Data, Communication.

Watch as much tape as you can on as many prospects as you can, go to as many games in person that you can, evaluate as much relevant data on these prospects’ basketball player development journey from youth to pro as you can, look for the winning traits that translate to winning basketball at every level, like defensive instincts for forcing turnovers, quick processing decision-making feel on and off the ball, offensive rebounding, dribble, pass, shoot feel for the game, developable ball skills relative to height/position like shooting, handle, passing, and the scoring versatility, creator upside, compared to play-finishing skill-set each player possesses, which helps outline all the potential roles that player could fill.

Some skills like handle, 3pt shooting versatility, defensive versatility can help players reach higher impact than expected, as they each create advantages that make it easier to do other things; the handle creates opportunities to score and pass, the 3pt shot drags defenses out of the paint with gravity, and the defensive malleability allows one to understand and execute different defensive schemes in different roles guarding different positions, sometimes all in one possession.

Quick effective team-first decision-making may be the most important skill of all separating players at this level of athletic greatness; the mind may be the most powerful muscle separating the average rotation player and the winning players.

General big boards help build a consensus view of how this class is built via a list of the best players available. Every team, however, has their own big board filled out differently. While this consensus list is helpful to target value at different slots in the draft, a more useful tool could be filling out a big board based on a specific team, where team-centric needs, roles, situations are addressed more directly.

From there, learning from other scouts, hearing their points of view on their findings, understanding others’ perspectives through their lens, helps any evaluator cover up blind spots and round out the scouting perspective, to help see the glass half full on prospects who you may have undervalued at first.

The 2025 NBA Swish Theory Draft Guide is a helpful place to start for understanding how great draft minds view this class via ranking the Top-59 on a general big board, with filters available to target the talent and player archetypes your team needs most.

As far as my Draft Process, here are my goals for ranking any big board:

First, I’m looking for potential Superstars, guys who can be legitimate franchise cornerstones for a decade anchoring the team to 50 wins without any help.

Second, I’m targeting Offensive Engines and Defensive Cornerstones; offensive players whose mere existence creates a reliable option to run team offense as a scorer and distributor on a night-to-night basis and defensive players with outlier DPOY potential. Scoring creators who consistently create good offense for their team through reliable decision making and star-stopping defenders who are so elite, smart, versatile that they actually slow down opposing stars.

Third, I’m hunting for All-Star/All-Defense level talent, scorers and stoppers who project to potentially become Top-30 offensive players or Top-10 defensive players in the league one day, who will likely be High End Starters on championship teams.

Fourth, I’m searching for High End Starters, players who have a realistic path to impact the game at a higher rate than the average rotation player, who have likely floors as fringe 5th starters, 6th man, role players on winning teams. These are likely “good basketball” players who can bring two-way (scoring and defensive) versatility.

Fifth, I’m interested in finding Role Players whose floor is fighting for rotation spots, those who have elite skills in one role on both ends like rim-rolling and rim-protecting, or those who can hold their own on both ends of the floor with dribble-pass-shoot and switchable defensive skills, like defensive connectors who can hit the open three and make the smart pass.

Lastly, I’m looking into Potential Pros, players who have NBA length, athleticism, body strength, or outlier skill advantages like quick first step burst, playmaking vision, decision making feel, 3pt shooting, to take a swing late on unique talents.

Orlando needed shooting.

Arguably, the team needed pull-up 3pt shooting most, someone who can draw two out to the perimeter to create space for others, and ideally also possesses reliable point guard duties; either from a guard, a wing, a center, someone who can run the show when Paolo and Franz aren’t taking the lead. Someone who can set those two big wing stars and depth of play-finishers up for off-ball opportunities, cuts, rim-rolls, closeout-attacks, instead of asking them to create from scratch every time down.

Enter Desmond Bane.

Orlando addressed its biggest need (pull-up shooting), its secondary needs (C&S shooting, connective playmaking, halfcourt initiating), AND didn’t have to sacrifice the team identity (defense) to do it. The Magic somehow landed the ultimate complementary third star to its young core without taking a step back in the short term to do so.

So, what else does this Magic roster need to continually search for perfect floor balance lineups and variety of depth options?

As Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner battle it out in the NBA Finals, another apparent team need could be a reliable two-way starting center, ideally a unicorn 3&D tough shot making big man, who don’t exactly grow on trees.

Take Porzingis as an example, sliding right in next to Boston’s big wing stars, cleanly transitioning from an All-Star post-up extraordinaire with the Wizards to a glorified 3&D role with postup mismatch opportunities on a much more crowded Boston team.

Launching an offensive attack with that level of overqualified talent in a role where less is needed allows the player to maximize their winning impact; maintain energy for both ends of the floor; prepare, know, and thrive in their predetermined role.

Otherwise, endlessly hunting defensive connectors seems to be this Magic team’s priority, searching for two-way versatility, quick processing team-first decision makers, players with few holes who can dribble-pass-shoot and switch on defense.

Now that Orlando has addressed its primary shooting/scorer/playmaking concern, the question remains: what finishing touches does this roster need to start contending?

PG: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Cory Joseph
SG: Desmond Bane, Gary Harris, Jett Howard
SF: Franz Wagner, Tristan Da Silva, Caleb Houstan
PF: Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac
C: Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, Mo Wagner

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Offensive Scoring Creator vs Play-Finishers/Connectors


When reviewing the Cerebro Sports data on 2025 NBA Draft Prospects (only including NCAA), an interesting result pops up when playing around with the numbers.

If I wanted to find two-way versatility, I could look for players who can fill roles as a defensive playmaker/offensive connector/3pt shooter/playfinisher, aka someone who brings plus defense, makes team-first passes, hits open 3pt shots, rebounds, scores 2s effeciently, and helps force turnovers with steals and blocks without fouling, then I can use that idea to filter through Cerebro’s data.

Setting 4 filters to average or above (At the Rim, Defensive Impact, 3pt Effectiveness, Floor General Skills), we can find players who rate average or better compared to the draft class in these categories.

The Results? only 4 players are average or better at defense, 3pt shooting, passing, and the rest of those attributes baked into Cerebro’s formulas
:
Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Danny Wolf, and Max Shulga

These next two data viz show the Best Offensive Engine Scoring Creator 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data:

Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP), Floor General Skills (FGS), and 3PT Effectiveness (3PE)

2025 NBA Draft – Cerebro Scoring Creators Scatter

and the same data by position:
better passing = bigger square // better scoring = darker color

Top Prospects in Floor General Skills (FGS):

1) Ryan Nembhard 96
2) Kam Jones 82
3) Javon Small 79
4_ Egor Demin 78
5) Mark Sears 76
T-6) Kobe Sanders / Kasparas Jakucionis 74
8) Walter Clayton Jr. 73
T-9) Nique Clifford / Cooper Flagg / Max Shulga 72
T-12) Jeremiah Fears / Dylan Harper 71
14) Danny Wolf 69
T-15) VJ Edgecombe / Johni Broome / Sion James 67


Top Prospects in Pure Scoring Prowess (PSP):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 93
2) Eric Dixon 88
3) Vladislav Goldin 84
4) Nique Clifford 83
T-5) Maxime Raynaud / John Tonje / Dylan Harper 82
T-8) Collin Murray-Boyles / Kam Jones 81
T-10) Cooper Flagg / Johni Broome 80
12) Tre Johnson 79
T-13) Walter Clayton Jr. / Chaz Lanier 78
T-15) Asa Newell / Rasheer Fleming / Adou Thiero / Javon Small 76


Top Prospects in 3PT Effectiveness (3PE):

1) Chaz Lanier 93
T-2) Eric Dixon / Koby Brea 90
3) Walter Clayton Jr. 88
4) Tre Johnson 87
T-5) Javon Small / John Tonje / Kon Knueppel / Tyrese Proctor 83
T-9 Mark Sears /Max Shulga 81
11) Alijah Martin 80
T-12) Rasheer Fleming / Will Richard 79
14) Maxime Raynaud 77

Prospects who ranked best in both passing and scoring:

Kam Jones, Nique Clifford, Dylan Harper, Cooper Flagg, Walter Clayton Jr., Javon Small, Mark Sears, Johni Broome, Tre Johnson, Collin Murray-Boyles, Kasparas Jakucionis, Max Shulga, Kon Knueppel, Danny Wolf, Jeremiah Fears, VJ Edgecombe, Alijah Martin, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins

Prospects who ranked best in all three of passing, scoring, and shooting:

Alijah Martin, Cooper Flagg, Danny Wolf, Dylan Harper, Hunter Sallis, Jamir Watkins, Javon Small, Jeremiah Fears, Johni Broome, Kam Jones, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kobe Sanders, Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Mark Sears, Max Shulga, Tre Johnson, Tyrese Proctor, VJ Edgecombe, Walter Clayton Jr., Will Riley

Poetic to see former Creighton teammates bookending these scoring creator stats with Ryan Nembhard leading all prospects in Floor General Skills by a mile and Ryan Kalkbrenner dominating yet another category, this time in Pure Scoring Prowess.

Players who rank highly in Scoring but not shooting or passing could be promising play-finishers, like Kalkbrenner, Eric Dixon, Vlad Goldin

Players who rank highly in 3pt shooting and Passing could be good offensive connectors, if not better, such as those who rate 65 or higher in both FGS and 3PE:
Walter Clayton Jr., VJ Edgecombe, Sion James, Ryan Nembhard, Max Shulga, Mark Sears, Kobe Sanders, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Dylan Harper, Danny Wolfl, Cooper Flagg

2025 NBA Draft Prospects – Defense/Hustle/At The Rim

Some promising Defense/Hustle/Rim Stats are deflections, blocks, steals, rebounds, charges, loose ball recoveries, shot contests, and fouls.

These next two data viz show the Best Defensive 2025 NBA Draft prospects via Cerebro Sports NCAA Data utliziing stats like these for At The Rim (ATR), Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI), and Overall Impact (C-RAM).

This first visualization shows a player’s overall impact by circle size, defensive impact vertically focusing on steals, blocks, fouls, rebounds, and at the rim impact horizontally which accounts for rebounding, blocks, and 2P%.

bigger circle = better Overall Impact (C-Ram)

the same data by position:
better Defensive Statistical Impact = bigger square // better At The Rim = darker color

Top Prospects in At The Rim (ATR):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 87
2) Johni Broome 85
T-3) Khaman Maluach / Maxime Raynaud 82
T-5) Danny Wolf / Rasheer Fleming 80
T-7 Collin Murray-Boyles / Thomas Sorber 79
T-9 Amari Williams / Derik Queen / Nique Clifford / Vladislav Goldin 78
T-13 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 77

Top Prospects in Defensive Statistical Impact (DSI):

1) Ryan Kalkbrenner 101
2) Johni Broome 97
3) Thomas Sorber 95
4) Chris Manon 94
5) Rasheer Fleming 91
T-6) Cooper Flagg / VJ Edgecombe 90
T-8 Asa Newell / Yanic Konan Niederhauser 88
T-10) Collin Murray-Boyles / Adou Thiero / Max Shulga 87
14) Alijah Martin 86
T- 15) Will Richard / Maxime Raynaud 85

With some overlap in these two defensive statistics, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Johni Broome rank 1 and 2 respectively in both. Multiple first round prospects rank highly in both, including Thomas Sorber, Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, VJ Edgecombe, Collin Murray Boyles, and Rasheer Fleming.

Chris Manon, VJ Edgecombe, Max Shulga, Alijah Martin, Will Richard rank Top-5 in DSI among guards. Nique Clifford ranks 78 in At The Rim activity while every other guard ranks 70 or below.

The NBA Combine provides measurables on most prospects like height, wingspan, weight that can be used to compare size, reach, and effective length.

I created a Data Viz of the 2025 NBA Draft Prospects by their Wingspan/Height Plus Minus compared with their Stocks Per Foul rate, where Stocks = STL + BLK

Top-5 Wingspan/Height Plus Minus

+9 Cedric Coward / Rasheer Fleming
+8.75 Thomas Sorber
+7 Amari Williams
+6.75 Drake Powell

Top-5 Stocks Per Foul

2.29 Ryan Kalkbrenner
1.58 Thomas Sorber
1.46 Cooper Flagg
1.45 Johni Broome
1.29 Alex Toohey

*Note, Cerebro Sports, CBB Analytics, and NBA Combine Data only consists of NCAA Players. International players data is from Basketball Reference.

With the 25th pick in the first round and the 46th and 57th picks in the second round of the 2025 NBA Draft, prospects and picks galore in the war chest, and young talent on good contracts filling up the roster, the Magic’s options this off-season feel endless. That doesn’t always end up translating to something big happening, but Orlando’s process keeps them prepared and flexible today and through the future to continually have the option to do something, which is the important part of making big splash trades – to stay ready for opportunities when value can be found.

In the past, Orlando has sold its second round picks for Cash Considerations; unless one or both are dealt in trades, don’t be surprised if that happens again, especially given how little opportunity there is for young prospects on this win-now roster.

One guess would be Orlando sells off one or both of the second round picks for cash. Another option could be packaging the 25th with the 2nd rounders to trade out of the draft for futrue assets or move up in the draft if there’s one particular prospect target in mind and they feel good about landing him at a slightly higher slot.

The Top-60 Prospects ranked below in tier are viewed as the same level as all prospects within the same tier, but factors like team/situation/role come into play as the tie-breaker. These players are ranked as such for this Magic team based on need, fit, opportunity, investment, and mostly just trying to answer questions like…

Which prospect has the most potential and the best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

Which prospect can help this team win now and in the future *and* fit within the current roster construction over the long haul the best?

The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board

Tier 1a – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: All-Star/All-Defense

1. Cooper Flagg
   The Runaway #1 Pick for a reason, Flagg is the most versatile basketball prospect this game has seen since LeBron.
   
   Any team can ask Cooper to do just about anything, and Flagg will either be good, great, or elite at it, able to slide into a multitude of different roles on both ends. An all-time great defensive prospect with Montverde at the high school level went on to produce an all-time great offensive season in his one and only year with Duke at the collegiate level.
   
   The Magic would obviously love to add a star like Flagg, who projects to play like a Supercharged Franz, and maybe even the one true Swish Army Knife of them all.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 1b – Ceiling: All-NBA Superstar, Floor: Offensive Engine/All-Star
   
2. Dylan Harper
   
   Harper would be taken more seriously in #1 pick talks in just about any other draft class. Dylan looks like a primary scoring creator, a true offensive engine for a team with the dynamic athleticism to give one hopes of positive defensive development. Harper’s a walking bucket tall point-guard who any team would love to have star in their backcourt operating the offense going forward.
   
   Orlando would be lucky to add a natural scoring creator point guard like Harper with how much talent they already have; after news of San Antonio being open to moving the #2 pick, should The Magic seriously look to to secure Harper as the third star to run the show? After trading for Bane, this feels highly unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   Tier 2 – Ceiling: Offensive Engine/All-Star, Defensive Anchor/All-Defense, Floor: High End Starter
   
3. Danny Wolf
   
   Many times this season, Wolf was a one-man offense for Dusty May’s Michigan team, as we discussed on the Learning Basketball Podcast.
   
   Running P&R as a near 7ft ball-handler with powerful rim-roller Vlad Goldin (#36 on this board) provides a proof of theory offensive role that will translate to the league. Danny ran 231 pick-and-rolls as his team’s ball-handler where his 0.94 PPP on P&R including passes ranked in the 65th percentile among all players.
   
   Shooting:
   33% 3P% on 51 Pull-Up 3PA
   34% 3P% on 62 C&S 3PA
   37% 3P% on 30 guarded C&S 3PA
   58% 2P% on 207 Layups
   
   Synergy Scoring Playtpes
   1.14 PPP on 43 Putbacks
   1.09 PPP on 44 Cuts
   1.03 PPP on 31 ISOs (82nd Percentile)
   1.02 PPP on 66 Spot Ups
   0.94 PPP on 33 P&R Roll Man
   
   Danny Wolf is a versatile scorer, a good shooter on and off the ball, an offensive orchestrator who can run either end of a pick-and-roll or spot-up off of a pick-and-pop or space the floor off a drive, a potential offensive playmaking hub who can initiate a team’s offense as a primary scoring creator option. Wolf’s sound footwork, big size, impressive mobility should help him hold his own on defense guarding big 4s and small 5s.
   
   Plus defender, great passer, good shooter, tight handle, two-way feel, unique style, special talent, at 6’11”.
   
   Orlando adding a versatile scoring big man who can run point guard duties and threaten defenses from deep would fill almost all the needs for this offense, freeing up the backcourt to continue to be filled with 3pt shooting scorers and defensive connectors between Bane, Suggs, and AB.
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. Tre Johnson
   
   Tre just posted one of the best shooting seasons any prospect has shown in years. His shot profile is as efficient and versatile as they come. His handle is tight enough to help him get to his spots and create any shot he wants, which he usually can make. His solid feel when defenses send help has shown promising playmaking skills to create for others off of the scoring gravity he brings. This combination could become a lethal scorer with passing chops as a primary option.
   
   Between Tre’s shooting/scoring gravity, the spacing he would breathe into Orlando’s offense, is just about the best possible fit the offense could ask for, someone who draws two on the ball, can hit the open three, and can make good reads to set up others.
   
   After adding Bane, trading up for Tre or anyone who isn’t more of a traditional point guard or D&3 big seems unlikely.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Kon Kneuppel
   
   Arguably the most complete offensive guard in the class, Kon’s combination of ball-skills from his handle, vision, shooting touch on and off ball, feel running the offense, ability to operate high volume of pick-and-rolls, should create a sum-of-its parts scoring creator at any level, a reliable offensive engine for any team.
   
   The biggest question mark will be defensively, if Kon can hold his own, but the toughness at his size is promising, the will to win is certainly there.
   
   Flanking Kon with plus-defenders where he’s the worst defender on the floor would be ideal, and elite team defenses like Orlando or Houston could use an offensive engine to make the halfcourt flow hum a little smoother.
   
   
   
   
6. VJ Edgecombe
   
   Outlier athlete who will be one of the NBA’s best athletes on Day 1, incredible defensive playmaker, unstoppable first step downhill burst, promising 3pt shooting development, improved decision-maker as season went on. This uber athlete with a high two-way 3&D floor and intriguing potential as a drive-and-kick scoring threat is a prospect any team would like to take a swing on.
   
   VJ would slide right into Orlando’s elite defensive turnover-forcing culture, and only be asked to hit the 3ball and run some secondary offense, allowing him to grow into his own as an on-ball threat and utilizing his off-ball skills immediately.
   
   
   
   
   
   This back half of the lottery is around where the fit in Orlando starts to get murky. Since this range of prospects are likely to be selected Top-14, Orlando would want to stay away from this 7-14 draft range if they deemed someone in a lower tier of prospect to be a better fit for this Magic team, like Walter Clayton Jr. or Jeremiah Fears. They would theoretically want to trade down from the back half of the lottery to secure them, or in reality probably have to trade up from 25.
   
   
7. Noa Essengue
   
   The downhill force forward with graceful footwork has shown an impressive development curve at one of the youngest ages in the draft class. Already showing defensive versatilty with high-impact in many facets, and transition tenacity as an off-ball mover in fast breaks, rebounds, and cuts, the question remains is how much brighter can Noa’s ever-growing star get.
   
   Can he refine the halfcourt on-ball skills to become a true two-way assassin? Could he define a handful of go-to moves for himself to at least score consistently in addition to his defense and fast break fuel?
   
   His potential is sky-high if he continues developing at this rate. In Orlando, the fit would be tough to find minutes at forward without a 3pt shot, but the energy would be appreciated on any team. Filling a role as a play-finishing center until he develops more ball-skills would be interesting to see play out here; maybe he can become a point-center in transition along with a playfinisher in the halfcourt.
   
   
   
   
8. Asa Newell
   
   Newell offers one of the more stable packages of any draft prospect: a lengthy big wing defender who can switch 3-5, use his high-point athletic gifts to block shots at the rim and time up offensive rebounds, and hit the open catch-and-shoot threes out of pick-and-pop, with the ability to attack closeouts with post-up counter-move footwork.
   
   Newell could slide into Orlando’s front court depth as a capable small-ball 5 or backup 4, a versatile defender who can hit the open three and provide two-way winning impact around the rim and on the glass.
   
   Asa’s defensive versatility, 3pt shooting, offensive rebounds impress most, and he also proved to be an efficient scorer off those putbacks on a high volume of scoring as a lead option for Georgia.
   
   
   
   
9. Khaman Maluach
   
   The most efficient rim-finisher the college game has seen… ever? Maluach lobs are automatic alley-oops. Khaman has great hands catching lob passes, though sometimes struggles with tougher passes inside the paint. He shows shooting touch potential to develop as a pick-and-pop threat, and otherwise is a lethal rim-roller right away. Defensively a smart big man, uses hands and strength effectively, and has potential to be elite on that end as well.
   The defense and rim-rolling would be bring a defined two-way role, but the 3pt shooting development could be a big holdup to his playing time. Khaman would bring two-way winning impact without the jumper just as a rim-rolling defensive anchor, so that alone is worth a look next to Orlando’s creators.
   
   Khaman has the highest offensive rebounde percentage of the class while also rating well in Hakeem %, which combines Block % and Steal % to essentially show what percentage of a team’s turnovers any given player forced.
   
   
   
   
10. Thomas Sorber
    
    Thomas Sorber is an absolute tank.
    Sorber’s smoothie of size, skills, smarts blends into an incredibly intimidating presence that could one day anchor an NBA defense and offer a connective playmaking hub on offense.
    
    Sorber’s 2025 NBA Draft Rank Tank Bonafides:
    
    #1 Body Weight (263)
    #2 Stocks Per Foul (+1.58)
    #3 in Wingspan/Height +/- (+8.75)
    
    Thomas Sorber ranks 3rd in DSI and 7th in ATR via Cerebro., making him one of the top defensive prospects in the class.
    
    Sorber’s cerebral two-way feel for the game wreaks havoc defensively, protects the rim as a defensive anchor, and brings a postup playmaking hub on the offense end. Without a 3pt shot, it would be challenging to win minutes on the Magic, but Thomas Sorber’s potential as a defensive anchor down low is too much to deny.
    
    
    
    
11. Collin Murray-Boyles
    
    CMB shows incredible defensive instincts, two-way feel for the game, graceful downhill strides as powerful 4/small 5 defensive playmaker. A head of steam often opens up Collin’s drives to the rack, with good feel to make smart reads and playmaking vision to execute the passes.
    
    Murray Boyles’ defensive mind is what stands out for him as a prospect, his ability to use his big hands to perfectly time up deflections, force stops, and then grab and go downhill off the turnover.
    
    The fit in Orlando is not great with Paolo at the 4 and CMB’s lack of perimeter shooting, but as a small 5 and backup 4 he would certainly be a winning player on almost any team, despite the worrisome jump shot mechanics.
    
    
    
    
12. Ace Bailey
    
    Bailey is a tough-shot making big wing 3pt sniper who flashes defensive potential. While the unrefined handle and lack of playmaking vision is worrisome as a primary initator for team offense, Bailey’s shooting ability, rebounding activity, and defensive athleticism should all still translate to the next level.
    
    Ace in Orlando’s frontcourt would provide a capable 3pt shooter to stretch the floor, an glass-cleaning rebounder, and potentially an impactful big wing help defender. If Bailey’s able to create his own shot without needing the handle, the two-way potential as a D&3 Big Wing Scorer rises even higher, but that may require outlier development.
    
    
    
    
    
13. Derik Queen
    
    A one-of-a-kind tank big who uses size and graceful strides to finesse his way to the rack like the a bull in a china shop who somehow didn’t break a single dish. Queen’s passing flashes are impressive, showing incredible vision for a player his size, and a handle good enough to help create advantages on the go.
    
    With Paolo in Orlando, the fit for Queen may be tough due to some overlaps in skillsets that aren’t additive to each other, similarly to CMB, but talent can sometimes find a way. Perhaps having either one on the floor at all times could carve out a role as a small-5 or backup-4, and certainly help replicate the offense when Paolo is out due to injury.
    
    Queen’s defensive effort, maximizing his athleticism, and working on the perimeter jumpshot are question marks, but who’s to say Queen can’t become a high-volume foul-drawing downhill force playmaking hub who can score at the rim and create paint-and-spray offense for any team?
    
    The downhill force of players like Collin Murray Boyles and Derik Queen can best be captured in a data viz like this one below comparing Points in the Paint and Free Throw Attempts per game, along with other stats like 3pt assists, to show the results of players who successfully penetrate the paint. Players who bend defenses in the paint are able to attack the rim, draw fouls, and kickout for threes or throw lobs at the rim to the man in the dunker spot.
    
    CMB ranks 9th in FTA and 5th in Points in the Paint per gameQueen ranks 8th in FTA and 7th in Points in the Paint per game
    
    
    
    
    Prospects listed 14-22 could all be good fits in Orlando to help bring depth of talent who fill needs and fit the identity. Trading up for a target or sitting and hoping a bpa from this list is there at 25 are fine strategies for good players.
    
    
    Tier 3 – Ceiling: High-End Starter, Floor: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man
    
14. Walter Clayton Jr.
    
    A 3pt sniper point guard who can beat you off screens, handoffs, pullups. Runs the offense as an initiator, slides right into Orlando’s handoff-heavy system, fills the high-volume 3pt shooter on and off ball as a point guard who can run some offense and set up Orlando’s elite frontcourt scorers and depth of play-finishers in the best possible position to succeed using shooting gravity and quick decision making feel.
    
    As for Orlando’s big board needs, Clayton has a case to be ranked as high as 7 here, but I and many others view everyone ranked between 7 and 14 as a higher tier level of nba prospect. This works out for the Magic, however, since Orlando doesn’t pick until 25, where Clayton might still be available.
    
    An answer to one of the team’s biggest needs could fall right into their laps.
    
    With the addition of Bane, losing the 16th pick, filling a shooting need, ending up with WCJ is less likely to happen, but not out of the question.
    
    As a draft thought exercise, if they moved up to 7, would they do so just to secure Walter Clayton Jr.? Would they move back to the mid-first range where they were before to select Walter closer to where he’s projected? Or is there someone else listed above they’d target in a trade to move up in the draft, like hoping Tre, Kon, or VJ are still there at 7?
    
    Walter Clayton Jr. ranks in 3rd in 3PA/gm volume and 6th in FT%, two positive indicators for future outside shooting development.
    
    
    
15. Jeremiah Fears
    
    Fears quick first step burst is practically impossible to cut off from penetrating the paint, an elite skill advantage that Fears will need to rely on at the next level, along with his impressive decelerating body control weaving in and out of defenses.
    
    Fears shows the killer pull-up 3pt shot and an uncanny ability to draw fouls on drives with a paint-and-spray attitude at a point guard scoring creator looking for the best shot for his team.
    
    Orlando could use his skill-set immediately, as Fears could slide right into the scoring point guard role for this Magic team. Unfortunately, he’ll likely not be available by pick 25. Could Orlando move back up in the draft to land a Fears or Clayton?
    
    
    
16. Ryan Kalkbrenner
    
    Kalkbrenner provides a stable two-way option late in the first round as a traditional rim-protecting big man who can also step out for three.
    
    Ryan will provide team-first winning impact to just about any squad as a playable rotation big with high two-way impact upside as a 3&D center if the shot proves reliable.
    Kalkbrenner sneakily could solve a big need for Orlando at Center, perhaps finally finding its utility big man to do a lot of things well, protect the rim, rebound, score against postup mismatches, and hit the open three around Orlando’s starting frontcourt of Franz and Paolo.
    
    Kalkbrenner being available at 25 for Orlando would be a steal for a reliable D&3 backup big with two-way starter potential.
    
    Kalkbrenner’s 2025 NBA Draft Ranks
    #1 Stocks Per Foul (+2.29)
    #4 Body Weight (257 lbs)
    T-#26th in Wingspan/Height +/- (+5 in)
    
    
    
    
    
17. Cedric Coward
    
    Tied with Rasheer Fleming for having the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (+9 in!), Cedric brings the lengthy measureables to the equation as a 6’5” guard 3pt specialist, a classic energetic D&3 archetype who slides right into a two-way role for any team.
    
    Orlando can’t have enough two-way floor-spacers around its star scorers, especially filling up the backcourt rotation, as KCP and Gary Harris have shown filling D&3 roles through previous seasons. Cedric could be a clean fit to replace that role in the long term for this team as a high-end two-way starter or positive impact role player, though Bane’s addition might prove playmaking and big man needs to be more dire.
    
    
    
    
18. Jase Richardson
    
    Versatile scorer with incredible shooting touch and quick processing skills, positive defensive energy, and strong connector capabilities create a strong two-way presence in Jase Richardson.
    
    While reportedly undersized at the combine, Jase could fill many holes for Orlando’s backcourt as a shooter, scorer, plus-defender who makes team-first decisions with the ball, and shares NBA legacy with his brother Jaxon and father Jason “J-Rich, Magic Legend” Richardson.
    
    
    
19. Carter Bryant
    
    Good defensive feel and capable 3pt shooting 6’7” forward with scoring chops could provide any team with a good basketball player who brings two-way impact.
    
    Orlando could use all the good basketball players they can get around its stars, especially if they fill a D&3 role with scoring being gravy on top, adding Carter could be a fine play for role player depth.
    
    
    
    
    
20. Rasheer Fleming
    
    Tied with Cedric Coward for the longest Wingspan to Height Plus Minus in the class (9in !), Rasheer Fleming offers another D&3 prospect, this time as a 6’8” wing.
    
    With Orlando’s frontcourt depth, there might not be much opportunity to develop. However, there’s always room to try D&3 prospects around the team’s creators, and a role could be found with the second unit and as an injury replacement starter when one of the stars go down. With Black, Da Silva, Isaac on the bench, Fleming does bring a different 3&D dynamic, but would have to compete for playing time.
    
    
    
    
21. Liam McNeeley
    
    High school hoops legend with a knockdown 3pt shot and the aggressive mentality to dunk on drives when attacking closeouts. Liam could fill a role as a 3pt shooter off the ball and a shooting threat off handoffs and screens, someone who can reboudn, handle, and pass well enough to keep the ball moving and make the right decision for the team, and even initiate some offense as a secondary creator at times.
    
    Orlando would be a clean fit for the 3pt shooter as a 6th man who spread the floor, attacks closeouts, runs a few DHOs/P&Rs, and mostly spreads the floor.
    
    The defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the functional size is there for Liam (6’7”, 215) to be a big guard who plays with a contagious fire, can light it up from deep, dunk on your head, and excite any crowd with intensity.
    
    
    
    
    
22. Nique Clifford
    
    If scoring versatility is the game, Nique Clifford is the name. Clifford can beat defenses in a multitude of ways to put the ball in the rack rather efficiently. He can provide plus-defense for his team on and off the ball. He’s a walking bucket who put himself on the map at Colorado.
    
    With Orlando drafting Tristan Da Silva last year, and Nique bringing similar scoring versatility to the table, maybe that’s a sign that he’s a good target as a potential backup 2-guard to Bane, since you can’t really have enough good basketball players who can score in a variety of ways, make big defensive plays, and make team-first decisions with the ball.
    
    An all-around portfolio, Nique Clifford ranks 4th in PSP, 9th in FGS, and 1st amongst guards in At The Rim.
    
    
    
    
23. Kasparas Jakučionis
    
    A tall point-guard pick-and-roll assassin with a go-to stepback pull-up three who uses body control, fundamental footwork, and impressive finishing at the rim to draw defenders into the paint for kickouts, whistles, and shots at rim. Kasparas can help generate offense on a whim.
    
    While Orlando has Franz in place filling a highly similar role, it’s not actually the worst idea to have a backup Franz in case of emergency. Kasparas is much smaller, but brings a similar playstyle that would help replicate Orlando’s offensive identity whether Franz shares the court or not.
    
    With both being better on pull-ups than catch-and-shoots, they might be better staggered, but that could provide Orlando with one reliable “point-forward” at all times. Despite that, the lack of defense and C&S 3pt shot make this a questionable fit.
    
    
    
    
24. Noah Penda
    
    An energetic defensive play-finisher that moves around the court so frenetically he looks like he snuck a diet Dew into his pregame Gatorade bottle, Penda is a strong playfinisher, smart connective passer, and active off-ball mover, rebounder, defender.
    
    Penda will likely be a high-end starter for a winning team, even if its as the 5th starter piece of the perfectly balanced lineup, but the lack of offensive juice could limit his lineup options in Orlando, providing a tough opportunity to develop.
    
    Could he be in winning lineups? Yes. Would he be able to play with Franz and Paolo as the longterm C? Maybe not. A winning depth piece that could be a value pick depending on the slot, but might be a tough fit for playing time in a crowded Orlando frontcourt. As a longterm backup 4 plug-and-play big, there is potential here for Penda’s play-finishing.
    
    
    
    
25. Adou Theiro
    
    Explosive NBA athlete who forces turnovers everywhere defnsively as a dynamic 6’6” wing who flies off the page anytime he opens a book. Raw offense but shows enough all-around potential to carve out a two-way role with patient development. Energetic defense, fast break missile launches, espn top-10 slams should quickly make him an exciting household name for fans.
    
    While the upside would be an intriguing upside play, its hard to see his opportunity to develop with the starting unit in Orlando. If he’s got the highest ceiling available at 25, maybe the team takes a swing on talent the later the draft goes, but finding a player who can fill roles and needs for this Magic team that just made moves to win now should take priority.
    
    
    
    
    Tier 4 – Ceiling: 5th Starter/Role Player/6th Man, Floor: Fringe Rotation Player
    
26. Will Riley
    
    Raw intriguing talent as as 3pt shooter and connective passer who can make impact plays off ball and who rated highly in BPM throughout the season, even overtaking Kasparas some in ball duties for Illinois as the season went on.
    
    This would be a dice roll on talent, impact, upside for Orlando, which isn’t a bad choice this late in the draft. While one could attempt to address a need at PG, C, or general shooting, this is a bet on talent, in-house development. Since Orlando has stated win-now goals, this idea is less likely to happen than the team taking one of the shooters or play-finishers over the next stretch, but hitting on an exciting 3pt connector late in the draft could be a huge swing for the Magic.
    
    
    
27. Javon Small
    
    A tough small guard who does just about everything well, Small has earned a look to be an NBA rotation guard, and few players fit the ilk of Orlando’s team identity better.
    
    Small gives no ground defensively, can guard multiple positions from the backcourt, and then he can turn around and initiate offense as the point guard running different playtypes, hit the jumper on and off the ball from deep, and score within different playtypes as well.
    
    Versatile scoring creator, capable 3pt shooter, and positive impact defender is just the type of guard Orlando covets around its stars.
    
    With Bane’s arrival to a backcourt already featuring Suggs, Small would make an interesting understudy to them both.
    
    
    
    
    
    
28. Sion James
    
    NBA Athlete who filled his role so well it expanded as the Duke season went on.
    
    Attacks closeouts, provides effort hustle plays defensively, at 6’6” can play 1-3 with tenacious on-ball defense, has a quick first step burst and explosive verticality and good feel for where to be and what to do.
    
    Sion could immediately help a winning team filling a small role, and in Orlando he’d get to do just that. Capable C&S 3pt shooter who can bend the defense, penetrate the paint, keep the ball moving, and defend his own would be more than welcome in O-Town.
    
    
    
    
    
    
29. Kam Jones
    
    Versatile old-school scoring guard who can get buckets, get in the paint, get to the line, and get his teammates open. Questionable defender at the next level, but the buckets should look smooth doing it.
    
    Kam could address some of Orlando’s offensive woes, while Orlando’s elite team defense could cover up some of Kam’s defensive holes. The Magic could add one of college basketball’s best scorers last year late in the first round or potentially even in the second round, where either way Jones could fill a role as a scorer, shooter, connective passer, and secondary playmaker creating offense for the team.
    
    Kam has the best combination of AST% and TO% of any draft prospect:
    
    
    
30. Nolan Traore
    
    Traore’s combination of quick first step burst, connective playmaking, defensive footwork, and perimeter shooting flashes earned him the nod here for the 30th spot on this Magic-centric big board over prospects like Koby Brea’s 3pt shooting and Vlad Goldin’s sound rim-protecting rim-rolling presence, or the two-way high floor throwback scoring of Johni Broome.
    
    If The Magic are taking gambles this late in the draft, maybe they should take a swing on a shooter like Brea who might launch 8 3PA per game one day? If the team wants two-way winning players to fill out the rotation to help compete today, a bet on Broome, Traore, or Goldin is probably better.
    
    Both choices depend on how many picks Orlando keeps (down to 3), how much contribution they expect from rookies right away (probably a lot), and what kind of risks the team is willing to take when it comes being patient with draft picks compared to the value of adding more proven talent through other avenues of team-building. (Bane says its time to win)
    
    
    
31. Johni Broome
32. Ben Saraf
33. Vlad Goldin
34. Maxime Raynaud
35. Hansen Yang
36. Koby Brea
37. Mark Sears
38. Egor Demin
39. Amari Williams
    
    Tier 5 – Ceiling: Raw Potential NBA Pro, Floor: International Pro
40. Joan Beringer
41. Eric Dixon
42. Chaz Lanier
43. Drake Powell
44. Jamir Watkins
45. Arthur Kaluma
46. RJ Luis Jr.
47. Max Shulga
48. Alijah Martin
49. Ryan Nembhard
50. Tyrese Proctor
51. Alex Toohey
52. Yanic Konan Niederhauser
53. Hugo Gonzalez
54. Dink Pate
55. Rocco Zikarsky
56. Kobe Sanders
57. Hunter Sallis
58. Will Richard
59. John Tonje
60. Chris Manon

So – which prospect has the most potential and best chance of realistically reaching that potential in Orlando, given the roster construction around Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner primarily and Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black secondarily as the young core?

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Orlando keeps at least two of its three picks, both in the range of its current slots (25 + 46-57)

As of today, 13 players have been invited to the NBA Green Room for Draft night, with expectations to be selected relatively high, and Noa Essengue likely to receive an invite once he finishes playing overseas.

Those 13 Green Room names (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis, Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, Derik Queen, Asa Newell) are likely to be taken by the 25th overall pick where Orlando sits, but that might not be a bad thing for every name here, and there’s always a few surprise names who slip every year.

The ideal players slipping among this group (other than Flagg) would be skilled scorers like Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel, or the explosive defender VJ Edgecombe, but that was much likelier to possibly happen at 16, not 25.

With his quick first step burst, 3pt shooting potential, natural point guard feel, Jeremiah Fears is one of the more interesting names to watch if he’s still available at the 25th slot, but another to unlikely be available outside of the lottery.

Later in the mid-first round draft range, prospects like Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Carter Bryant, and Cedric Coward could all fit nicely in Orlando’s backcourt. All these guards space the floor and offer varying levels of scoring, defense, and shooting skills, which all help balance out and contribute quickly to Orlando’s paint-and-spray big wing attack. Nique Clifford another name to watch as a scorer, passer, and plus-defender.

If Danny Wolf is still available, that’s the big name to watch for Orlando: A point-center/forward (✓), a 3pt shooter on and off ball (✓), with size and footwork to guard big 4s and small 5s (✓), who shows incredibly unique two-way feel for the game at nearly 7ft tall (✓) , and is, you guessed it, a Michigan Man. (✓)

Wolf is a proven offensive orchestrator who can run pick-and-rolls with ease, slide into the short-roll playmaker on the next set, spread the floor for three the next possession, and play connector playmaking hub the next play. The Magic need a point-something who can hit the open three, play connector next to the stars, yet also initiate the offense so those stars don’t have to every time down the floor. Finding a unique big man who can fill those roles in an already formidable frontcourt and 1-4 starting unit set would be a worthwhile experiment on a high-risk high-reward high-feel high-potential swing.

Another name that makes too much sense for the Orlando Magic if he’s sitting there at 25?

UF’s own NCAA Champion, Walter Clayton Jr., who has as worthy of a case as just about any prospect to be this Magic team’s primary target.

Clayton lights up the gym from deep like its nothing, an efficient high-volume 3pt sniper who can shoot on and off ball, run some P&R offense, and flow right into Orlando’s handoff heavy system, fitting seamlessly with a big shot pedigree that may even remind one of Jalen Suggs.

A huge value play at 25 would be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the smart rim-protecting presence out of Creighton who flashes C&S 3pt shooting potential as a pick-and-pop rim-rolling threat. Orlando’s constant hunt for its longterm reliable big man continues, and a potential D&3 bet could be a nice play for a 3pt shooting shot-swatting big man that can be harder to find that one might think.

Assuming all the names above are off the board, then a few late-first round/fringe second round targets to watch could be complete role players: guards like Kam Jones, Javon Small, and Nolan Traore; bigs like Vlad Goldin, Wolf’s Michigan teammate and strong rim-rolling rim-protector, or intriguing big man playmakers Maxime Raynaud and Hansen Yang.

Some of the above names could slip to Orlando’s late second round slots, but given the lack of depth in this class due to all the NIL dropouts, its no guarantee. Packaging two seconds or the 25th pick to move around in the draft, maybe to an earlier second round pick to secure the guy you want and add a future pick is always good value play for a team that just needs to leave this draft with one good basketball player somewhere between 25-57. Even moving back from 25 to the 30s wouldn’t lose much potential value on a pick, especially if the team can use good process to add a future pick on top of it.

With Orlando’s final pick(s) in the 45-57 range, if none of the players listed above are available, the Magic could take a swing on a backup point guard like Mark Sears or Ryan Nembhard, or a potential 3pt shooter like Koby Brea, Arthur Kaluma, Eric Dixon, Chaz Lanier or Tyrese Proctor

Orlando Magic Draft Targets Within Range:

25
Danny Wolf, Walter Clayton Jr., Ryan Kalkbrenner, Jeremiah Fears, Nique Clifford, Liam McNeeley, Jase Richardson, Cedric Coward, Carter Bryant, Kam Jones, Javon Small, Nolan Traore, Vlad Goldin, Johni Broome


45-57
anyone listed above who is still available + Hansen Yang, Maxime Raynaud, Eric Dixon, Koby Brea, Mark Sears, Ryan Nembhard, Chaz Lanier, Arthur Kaluma, Tyrese Proctor


After the Bane trade, it seems less likely that Orlando will invest in another 2-guard; however, with Gary Harris and Jett Howard as the lone SG depth on the roster, maybe finding a high-end two-way wing is still a priority.

The top-2 goals this summer for Orlando now:

1) Target and acquire a long-term starting Center, or a prospect who can become a D&3 big with a little scoring juice
2) Round out rotation with playable depth for a playoff run, between a natural point guard or a 2/3 size wing who can shoot and defend

Of course, the Magic just made their big move. They probably don’t feel pressure to do anything else if they feel this roster is ready to contend already, but if any question remains about the shooting, the center play, the depth, paths to upgrade exist.

Magic fans have been counting down the days for something big to happen like this for years; a consolidation trade to bring this team closer to contending. The team made its goals clear: proven offensive talent was needed, and acquired.

They took their big swing to first address this need by dishing out four first rounders, a pick swap,, Cole + KCP for Bane.

Are the Magic finished making moves?

Maybe Orlando somehow trades into the Top-10 for Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, or Kon Knueppel to help balance the offense, but now that the team has packaged some picks and rotation players for a more proven offensive talent, it seems likelier the team will stay put at 25 to target a good player on a rookie deal, or package its picks to move around the draft for their target.

When it comes to draft night trades, there are plenty of reasons to make deals.

Here’s 5:

1) Front offices are filled with humans, and deadliens create urge for humans. Teams wait for dates like the trade deadline and draft night to make moves for many reasons, one being to evaluate every possible deal and ounce of leverage before settling on a trade packge. But on those nights, anything can happen – some teams are on edge, some desperate, some excited to make a splash, whether that be a big draft night selection or a midnight trade to excite fans with something new over the off-season; as draft day approaches, unpredictable chaos and impulse decisions await.

2) Consensus big boards allow teams to view draft slot ranges where prospects are most expected to land between, so given the knowledge of other team needs/connections/identity, this opens up opportunities to trade up in the draft to secure a coveted prospect, or move back in the draft to add draft capital if your coveted prospect isn’t likely to be considered anytime around the slot you currently possess.

3) Trading out of the draft for additional future picks is almost always a good decision, even if taking on salary to do so. This generally smart draft process acquires extra draft capital for the price of today’s, just because other teams (owners) generally prefer to have the draft pick *that* night, and are willing to pay extra to do it.

4) Pre-agency: Star players, draft picks, and every nba player in between share the same agencies; all sides talk every possibility long before they happen. If a team believes a major splash is available, their best chance to take the dive is on draft night, the last night where the picks posses the most value they’ll ever have because that pick can still potentially be *anything*, before the car is driven off the lot and becomes an actual player the next day, losing value just by going from potential to reality.

5) Christmas Morning: Fans love a good trade, a fresh face, a new name to see on posters, sides of buildings, tv commercials. Draft Day should be a national holiday, as watching the first team go On The Clock feels like waking up on Christmas Morning, where any team’s fans can still get any gift. Few feelings are as fun for a fan like watching a midnight move go down or a surprise draft pick get made (#ThankYouBane), but few feelings are as sad for fans as seeing their favorite players sent out the door. (#RIPOrlandipo)

The Magic went into the summer shopping these trade pieces first:

Draft Picks: 16, 25, 45, 57, PHX 2026 Swap, Future 1sts
Prospects like Tristan Da Silva and Jett Howard
Rotation Players on Good Contracts like Jonathan Isaac, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Goga Bitadze

I would have bet a combination of 16, 25, Tristan Da Silva, Cole Anthony, and Jonathan Isaac or some mix of good role players on good salaries would be enough of well-rounded offer to pry one of these proven talents away from a rebuilding team.

Turns out the Magic could keep Black, Suggs, Da Silva, Isaac, 25 if they just sent out 4 future first rounders that have a good chance to be in the back half of the first round.


Magic Fans’ prayers have been answered.

Desmond Bane instantly provides Orlando with the high-volume 3pt sniper they’ve always wanted, a tough defender, a team-first connector passer who can run some offense and score in a variety of ways.

Suggs – Bane – Franz – Paolo – Wendell – Black – Da Silva – Isaac – Goga

Orlando’s got a young prime rotation to build around, an elite defense, two stars, five ball-handlers, and multiple all-defensive candidates too boot.

Now the team just needs to dot some ‘i’s, cross some ‘t’s, and hopefully draft another exciting prospect to add to the deep young core like Walter Clayton Jr., Danny Wolf, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Cedric Coward, Javon Small, on draft night

I guess we’ll just have to wait and find out what happens next on June 25th at 8:00pm EST.

The 2025 NBA Draft Countdown Clock BEGINS!

The post The Official 2025 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Team-Centric Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

You never know which version of this Orlando Magic team you’re going to get. Sporadic 3pt shooting. Roster-depleting injuries. Rotations lacking rhythm. But there’s two things you can always count on for this group:

1. Opponents scratching and clawing for every point against this pestering defense
2. When Paolo and Franz get going, this team can hang around with anyone.

Orlando’s defense is as impressive as any team in the league; this year the Magic are on track for their second straight season as the league’s 2nd-best rated defense. The one thing you never question is The Competitive fire. The Energy. The Hustle. (get well soon, Suggs.)

The offense, though, lives and dies with the consistency of its stars, not to mention the shooting luck of its role players. The difference between stars and superstars in this league is a little bit of super and a lot of consistency. Orlando’s two shooting star rising suns still have to find that consistency to make the last jump into the superstar galaxy.

This season, both players made leaps closer to that goal, becoming franchise cornerstones any time would build around. When you play the Magic, sometimes you get Boogie; sometimes you get The Beast.

How many NBA teams run their offense through a pair of 6’10” point-forwards? Two big wing scoring creators here to bend driving angles, hit tough shots, and create good looks for the team.

Often penetrating the paint with postups and pick-and-rolls, what are the odds these two big wings average the same 4.7 Assists Per Game with exactly 223 Drives a piece over the course of the season for the same team?

On most nights, The Magic’s offense relies on its star scorers accomplishing 3 main goals: Getting to the line, Scoring at the rack, and Creating open looks for others. Franz looks to methodically run P&R and DHOs, using the screener to create that half-step advantage into the paint with hostage dribbles and shifty direction-changing drives until he gets to the rim for his patented running flip shot, his dirk fade counter, or the lob to the roll man.

Paolo makes scoring look effortless, bringing the ball up the floor and deciding between a quick pull-up jumper, backing down his defender from the perimeter with brute strength, or simply driving through every defender in front of him for a Power Slam.

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley about the challenges that go into playcalling with players as talented and versatile as Paolo and Franz, where it feels like any play could work on any possession depending on matchups and lineups:

“I think a lot of it always boils down to their feel, their read, their recognition to who’s on the floor with them, and the spacing placed around them.” – Jamahl Mosley

Sometimes the role players’ 3pt shooting shows up, like in Cleveland in a National TV spot, and on those rare nights where this team has the “we can make 15 threes” factor in play, they look like they can compete with any team in the league. Other nights, they have trouble hanging with the bottom of the barrel, because when the shots don’t fall, the paint is packed, and every possession becomes a grind to force a stop and follow it up with a tough shot.

Sometimes you get Jekyll, sometimes you get Hyde; no matter which version of The Magic show up, it’s scary.

The Numbers

How do each of these rising stars’ stats compare to the rest of the league?

Franz’ +3.5 EPM rating ranks 19th in Estimated Plus Minus in the 96th percentile overall. Wagner has an elilte rating on both ends of the floor, rating in. the 90th percentile defensively (+1.3 D-EPM), and 91st percentile offensively (+2.2 O-EPM). Only 6 players with a higher EPM than Franz’ 3.5 EPM are also in the 90th percentile or higher on both ends, via Dunks and Threes. That puts Wagner in the company of NBA Stars who impact both sides of the floor, revealing that Franz is one of the best young rising two-way wings in the league.

This impact rating isn’t as high for Banchero despite his impressive box score stats, yet still rates in the 80th percentile overall (+1.0 EPM) and in the 81st percentile offensively (+0.9 O-EPM). In another impact metric called LEBRON, Paolo actually has a slight edge now at 1.43 to Franz 1.38 rating, while Franz still has the lead in LEBRON WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with 4.32 to Paolo’s 3.28.

Many Magic fans and skeptics around the league often debate who is the better player of the two, based on these impact numbers being higher for Franz than Paolo for one reason or another. Two prominent analytics folks have weighed in on the matter to help provide insight; in fact, its the people who created these very two impact metrics.


Taylor Snarr, the creator of EPM, was asked about this very topic in a recent F5 newsletter by Owen Phillips; here’s his thoughts:

I asked Krishna Narsu, the inventor of LEBRON, about this topic directly on my podcast, Learning Basketball. At the time, and up to that point in their careers, Franz had steadily rated higher than Paolo, despite Paolo scoring more points per game.

One might expect Franz’ impact to go down as his usage has gone up, but it hasn’t. Franz has stayed efficient when given Paolo’s #1 option touches due to injury, becoming the primary option defenses have to stop, yet his impact is as high as ever.

Krishna’s conclusion here at the time is that Franz impact stats are generally higher due to his playmaking creation for others, his shooting gravity on and off the ball, and his matchup difficulty as a more active defender. Doing more little things that impact winning than just smooth scoring and tough shot making.

That said, Paolo has finally reached the same level of impact via this metric, showing Paolo’s impact has risen as of late for making winning plays, improving as a shooter, producing as a scorer, and being a reliable scoring hub for the team.

Franz “Boogie” has been putting up legit All-Star numbers all season, averaging 24 PPG – 6 REB – 5 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL,
while shooting 54% 2P% on 13 2PA – 32% 3P% on 6 3PA – 88% FT% on 5 FTA. Franz has had marquee moments throughout the season, like going supersonic anytime he sees the Lakers, featuring a stepback game-winning kill shot on a 37 PTS – 11 AST – 6 REB – 4 STL evening in L.A.

Since the All-Star break, “The Beast” Banchero is scoring 29 PPG, which is 2nd only to The NBA’s Leading Scorer tough shot-making MVP-favorite superstar in Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Paolo’s averaging 29 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL in that 17gm stretch, while shooting 51% 2P% on 14 2PA – 37% 3P% on 7 3PA – 80% FT% on 10 FTA.

This success didn’t happen overnight; Paolo’s battled a tough injury all season, one that has taken time to fully recover from even while playing games. The standard is so high for the former Duke star that when he was averaging 22 PTS 7 REB 5 AST for 21 games after coming back from injury, outsiders still expected more.

One smart evaluator who looks at the game with a unique eye for physical movement pointed out he didn’t quite have the same leg strength back yet that makes his game so deadly. (h/t @Polarfall on Twitter)

I asked Paolo about his injuries, the physical and mental aspect of recovering and finding a rhythm after the comeback, and how the team’s mindset has been dealing with so many different injuries this season to key players.

Averaging 31 PPG – 8 REB – 4 AST – 1 STL in 14 games since this question, it’s safe to say Banchero is back to his star self.

Against Charlotte on March 25th, Paolo became the first Magic player since Dwight to drop 30+ PTS in four straight games, joining Dwight, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady as the only players in team history to drop 30+ PTS in 4+ straight games, via Magic PR. Against Dallas on March 27th, Paolo did it again, becoming has become the first Orlando Magic player since T-Mac and Shaq as the only players in team history to score 30+ PTS in FIVE straight games

That only scratches the surface of the scoring run The Beast is on. Paolo’s dropped 30+ PTS sixteen times this season Banchero’s posted fifteen straight games with 20+ PTS, a Career-High. Throw in four games scoring 40+ PTS for good measure, including his career-high 50-Burger against Indiana in the 5th game of the season, just before going down to injury. For all we know, Paolo could have been headed for an All-NBA team between his production and where the Magic could have been in the standings had he (Franz, Suggs, Moritz, Goga) not lost so many games to injury.

Seemingly every night, Paolo Banchero ties or sets a record not seen in Orlando since the Magic Mount Rushmore stars who have graced the blue and white pinstripes before him.

• First player to score 40+ PTS in multiple games in multiple seasons since T-Mac & Shaq after his shootout with Steph (56 PTS) in Orlando.
• Against Toronto, he drilled the most FGs made in a quarter without a miss (8/8 FG) since Shaq.
• After a game in Atlanta, Banchero became the 3rd player in Magic history to have multiple games of 35+ PTS, 10+ REB, and 5+ AST, joining, you guessed it, T-Mac (16x) and Shaq (3x).

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley how Sequencing factors into his playcalling to keep defenses on their toes with counters of similar plays: “it’s part of the game. it’s the game read. it’s the game feel.”

By The Numbers…

Banchero & Wagner have shared three games this season where they both post a statline of 25+ PTS – 5+ AST – 5+ REB in the same game, the most for a set of teammates in Orlando Magic history.


Paolo is scoring 25.7 PPG, tied for 10th with Cade Cunningham, meaning he scores slightly more points per game than Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zion Williamson.

Franz is scoring 24.4 PPG, ranking 20th among all players, sitting just ahead of Steph Curry, Trae Young, and Victor Wembanyama

Paolo’s 7.2 RPG is T-47th with Zion Williamson.
Franz’s 5.7 RPG is T-92nd with Jaylin Williams, Anthony Edwards, Dyson Daniels, and Guerschon Yabusele.

Franz and Paolo are both tied at exactly 4.7 APG a piece, T-51st among all players.

Franz 1.3 SPG is T-37th with many including Lonzo Ball, Bilal Coulibaly, Amen Thompson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, and Chris Paul.
Paolo’s 0.8 SPG is T-169th with many players including Giannis Antetokoumnpo, Ben Simmons, Evan Mobley.

Paolo draws the 3rd most Free Throws at 8.3 FTA/gm, converting 73% FT%.
Franz draws the T-25th most Free Throws at 5.4 FTA/gm, hitting 86% FT%.

Paolo shoots the T-56rd most three pointers per game at 6 3PA, the same volume as Gradey Dick, Cade Cunningham, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, and Naz Reid(!)
Franz shoots 30% 3P% from deep on the T-65th most three pointers per game at 5.8 3PA, the same volume as LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Desmond Bane, Andrew Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, Max Strus, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Franz is shooting 36% in the clutch on 15/42 FG.
Paolo is shooting 47% in the clutch on 21/45 FG.

Franz Wagner isn’t just Top-15 in PPG and Fast Break PTS, he’s rated even higher in four areas; Franz is exactly the 6th best player in the league this season at scoring Points in the Paint (13 PTS), Points on Drives (10 PTS), and Points off Turnovers (4 PTS) via the Orlando Magic broadcast team.

Paolo Banchero is similarly great in some of these areas, as these are two of the premier paint penetrators in the sport. Paolo averages as many PTS off Drives as Giannis (8.2), T-16th, and scores exactly 10 PTS in the Paint per game, ranking 29th.

In 809 MIN with Franz & Paolo both ON the court together, Orlando has a +2.2 Net Rating.
In 979 MIN with just Franz ON the court and Paolo OFF, Orlando has a +7.74 Net Rating.
In 484 MIN with just Paolo ON the court and Franz OFF, Orlando has a -8.85 Net Rating.

One thought with having multiple point guard creators on the same team is that one can be on the floor at all times; the same can be applied to having two stars, especially when both can serve as an offensive hub every second on the floor.

As the season has gone on, it appears these two are staggered more and more, where goal is to play as few seconds of basketball as possible without one or both of them on the floor – against Charlotte before the All-Star break it was 6 minutes; against Atlanta after the ASB it was 30 seconds; against Memphis the next night it was 4 minutes.

I asked Jamahl Mosley after the Grizzlies matchup what factors come into play when deciding between staggering Franz’ and Paolo’s minutes compared to the benefits of playing them together and keeping a balanced second unit in place behind them:

Volume & Efficiency

Below’s a chart that compares the two stars shooting touch in three efficient shot locations:

Shooting Touch – At The Rim, Free Throw Line, Beyond The Arc

Paolo shoots better from deep on and off the ball.

Franz shows better touch on a much higher volume of shots at the rim on layups and FLOATAs.

Franz shoots much better at the pinstripe, while Paolo gets to the line more often.

Synergy help us see the volume and efficiency for each Player based on the playtypes they categorize every possession into.

Keep in mind, that these tracking stats are still a work in progress; these stats measure the *final* action of a possession – for example, if a team runs 2 pick-and-rolls in a row bending the defense, and then follows that up with 1 handoff that results in shot attempt, that play is tracked as 1 Handoff Possession.

The two charts below shows how Franz and Paolo stack up in every Synergy Playtype as scorers, while 3 playtypes including both scoring and passing to teammates to compare them as Scoring Creator Offensive Engines: ISO, Post Ups, P&R Ball-Handler

To no surprise, Paolo Banchero has the efficiency edge in ISOs, Drives, and Spot Ups; what is interesting is Paolo is also more efficient on Cuts and in Transition this year.

As expected, Franz Wagner is more efficient running Handoffs and P&R as the ball-handler; what may come as a surprise is that Franz is also more efficient as the P&R Roll-Man and as a Post-Up creator hub this season.

One important note is that volume for some of these plays is drastically different. Paolo has 16 handoffs, 35 cuts, 75 P&R roll-man plays on the year; Franz is up to 68 handoffs, 90 cuts, and 30 P&R roll man possessions.

Both big wings like to leak out in Transition, scoring 1.14 and 1.22 PPP respectively on a total of 391 fast break possession between them.

What really stands out for Paolo is his scoring versatility – Paolo averages between 0.93 PPP and 0.99 PPP on his five most common halfcourt playtypes, which might be roughly average efficiency overall, but on high volume these can be reliable actions.

As for Franz, the combined P&R Ball-Handler efficiency and volume jumps off the page, creating over 1.0 per possession on extremely high volume. His efficiency is very good and doesn’t drop off the more the team runs him through the action. This is by far Orlando’s most reliable set to create a good shot through Franz as the offensive engine.

The numbers supporting Post Ups for Franz makes one do a double take. Paolo is the star swishing beautiful baseline fadeaways, yet the numbers say Franz creates more efficient offense for the team when running through him through the post. Franz creates 1.13 PPP on 104 possessions; Paolo creates 0.98 PPP on 131 possessions.

I asked Jamahl Mosley about the advantages created by moving Franz off ball around screens before initiating the downhill action, like in sets like Chicago and Peja where Franz will run around the perimeter through screen(s) into a handoff that helps give him separation from his defender.

Jamahl notes that this idea of creating advantages by moving off ball, gain ahead of steam, running defenders through screens, to create a situation where the scorer can shoot drive or kick with an advantage already created, is the goal for not just Franz, but all of the team’s scoring options:

Tracking The Assist Combo

Sometimes Boogie looks for The Beast; sometimes The Beast needs a little Boogie.

Paolo assisted Franz 40 times this year, the most of any duo on the team; Franz found Paolo for 27 dimes this season, the T-5th most of any combo on the team.

They have both assisted each other directly at the rim exactly 18 times a piece, T-3rd most of any duo on the team.

Considering how few games these two have actually played together, these marks show how they both prioritize looking for each other on the court for the most efficient shot in halfcourt – at the rim.

As for the costars finding the rest of the team for good looks at the rim and beyond the arc, Franz has created more total shots for his teammates (89 3PT AST, 110 ATR AST) compared to Paolo’s totals (72 3PT AST, 52 ATR AST), partially due to playing more games this season.

However, when the number is based on racking up dimes on a more comparable one-to-one scale of per one hundred possessions, the shot creation rates look much closer.

Paolo creates more looks for the team from deep (3.02 3PT AST per 100 poss),
but fewer dimes at the rim. (2.13 ATR AST per 100 poss)

Franz creates fewer looks for the team from deep (2.8 3PT AST per 100 poss),
and a much higher rate of dimes at the rim. (3.4 ATR AST per 100 poss)

(assist combo numbers via 3.18.25)

Boogie Nights

Some of Orlando’s many 4pt swings each game comes when the defense forces a turnover, the ball finds Franz, he immediately looks up the floor, and finds Banchero streaking down the sideline outlet for a breakaway slam, or he pushes the pace to create a 2-on-1 alley oop lob to Banchero on the break.

The majority of Franz assists to Paolo came in transition for 10 fast break buckets.

The 2nd-most assists from Franz to Paolo came on the move in the half court, with 8 assists coming on off ball cuts and 3pt kickouts.

The Franz-Paolo Pick-and-Roll hasn’t been used often, but it stands as a powerful weapon up Orlando’s sleeve going forward that unlocks Paolo as a short-roll playmaker and Franz as an on-ball creator with a screen, both pulling attention from defenses.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how high the volume of the Franz-Paolo P&R could reach for Orlando as one of the team’s staples sets:

“I really do believe that those two create a problem. And so, when you have two of your best players in P&R — they’ve got to make a decision — and they’re both great playmakers. And so, I think them being able to make plays and read off each other is something that can cause problems for a defense down the stretch.” – Jamahl Mosley

This action sets up the playfinishers around those two to finish at the rim or from beyond the arc. Send two at Franz or Paolo if you like living in your own nightmare.

Franz found Paolo 3 times for assists when running P&R. On two other possessions, Paolo drew a shooting foul after Franz found him in the 2-man P&R set.

Unleash The Beast

Oddly, Paolo did not assist Franz one time in any inverted P&R, and that action doesn’t seem to be used often where Paolo is initiating and Franz is the roll man, probably since this duo’s strengths may be most effective as a combination in the order described before with Franz on ball and Paolo setting the first screen.

Paolo most often found Franz on off ball cuts or relocation threes 21 times.

Winning early post positioning has been key to unlocking quick easy baskets for these two, looking for each other up the court once one has secured the advantage under the rim deep into the paint before the defense is set. One of the most reliable buckets every game is Franz taking off in transition, planting his feet deep in the paint, posting up the first mismatch he sees. Paolo hit ahead to Franz in transition 13 times.

Paolo also found Franz 2 times in the post after securing positioning advantage in halfcourt situations. Sometimes you’ll see one set a back screen for the other in the middle of a set like Horns to help force switches and create mismatches, shown here:

Finding a guard concept that works around Paolo and Franz is the next step

Orlando’s up and down season can be directly attributed to injuries first, and shooting luck second. Even this late in the season has seen volatile stretches, with the team now 6-4 in their last 10 after bouncing back from an 5-game losing streak. What’s been the difference as of late outside of the chemistry of these two stars?

Anthony Black‘s play has been the wildcard factor for this team. His defense is reliable enough to start every night, and his decision-making feel is special, two traits that define the strengths of his game. Even though he’s just in Year 2, he’s become the team’s third scorer, first option off the bench, and third big playmaker who can initiate offense and even space the floor.

When AB’s shot is falling and he finds a way to score, this team is often more competitive:

in Orlando’s 33 wins with AB playing, he scores 11 PPG on 60% TS% and 43% 3P%
in Orlando’s 37 losses with AB playing, he scores 8 PPG on 45% TS% and 20% 3P%

Black continues to develop the 3pt shot despite receiving constant criticism of his shot. In his last 31 games, Black is shooting 40% 3P% from deep on 2.6 3PAs per game; in his 39 games prior, Anthony shot 24% 3P% on 2.4 3PA per game.

I asked Anthony Black about his about his changing role due to injuries and his 3pt development after a 4/5 3P outing “I’m pretty comfortable playing where I’m at right now. It gives me a chance to operate a little bit, while also playing some minutes with our two guys.”

Another underrated factor has been the addition of 33yo Cory Joseph into the starting lineup.

You know a team is shuffling the rotation with injuries when arguably the 7th guard on the roster to start the year is now their most trustworthy starter.

Credit to Cory for doing the little things that have earned that spot: team-first ball movement, hit the open shot, run some O when called upon, take what the D gives you, hold your own defensively. Joseph serves as a fine example of the type of connector floor-stretching plus-defender guard who can slide right into an offense featuring two big wing playmaking initiators.

Orlando has a +8.9 rating in 173 MIN when they play Cory Joseph alongside Boogie and The Beast.

Cory earned the starting job after an impressive stretch against Toronto. Despite losing the game, Orlando mounted a 14pt comeback after inserting Joseph into the game to close with 10 MIN to play for the first time all night, making Cory a +14 on the night. He’s started ever since, leading Orlando to a .500 record after a rough stretch after the All-Star break.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how much he trusts the veteran experience of Cory Joseph after the game:

There’s no more debate to be had; Franz Wagner & Paolo Banchero are NBA Stars, rising suns for a team with the 2nd best defense in the league for the second straight season.

What separates the Orlando Magic from pretenders to contenders is that volatile 3pt factor. Whether they find a guard who can draw two on the ball with pull-up 3pt gravity or flank these two supernovas with more consistent shooters, that’s the last step to go from making the playoffs to competing in them.

The cool thing about this article is it starts and ends with the same picture – the Magic’s defense runs on Chaos Energy, and once Boogie and The Beast carve out the super to their star, this team might just mess around and find the rings they covet.

Stats via Synergy, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Magic PR as of 03.27.25 unless otherwise noted

The post Boogie and The Beast appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

If you’ve tuned into an Orlando Magic game recently, noticed Jalen Suggs make a chasedown block, and started to wonder, “wow, it feels like Suggs blocks a shot from behind every time I watch the Magic,” it’s because he has.

Is the game slowing down for Suggs so much that he’s channeling his inner LeBron, using his athleticism, shot-tracking, and defensive instincts to let his man drive past him, giving the opponent an ounce of hope that he beat Suggs off the dribble, just to suddenly surge forward and block the driver’s shot from behind?

Let’s investigate.

Finding a Role Update: The Defense

Last year, Jalen Suggs was the king of the Pick Six, a Backcourt Ballhawk forcing turnovers and scoring breakaways on what felt like every play.

This year, Suggs leads all guards in Blocks Per Game (1.2) and Total Blocks (21), narrowly edging out Derrick White.

Tracking every block from behind, forced turnover, and (missed) shot contest for Jalen through 18 games this season reveals that Suggs has in fact averaged one chasedown block per game, 19 to be exact.

Sometimes, it looks like Suggs has been beaten, almost as if he’s given up on a play, just to creep up behind the driver, quickly accelerate and explode into a smackdown from behind.

Often, Jalen’s even able to keep the ball inbounds, somehow swatting the shot hard enough to deny the force of the opponent’s attack, yet soft enough to recover the loose ball before it becomes a lost possession, making multiple winning plays at once.

Don’t drive by Jalen Suggs or you might just feel the wind up and follow through of his shot-swatter arm bopping off your skull.

Suggs, of course, doesn’t just block shots; he’s a ball of energy one-man wrecking crew who doesn’t run out of gas.

His motor never turns off.

His screen navigation is as clean as any defender in the world.

His versatile switchability is as strong and agile as a guard can be.

On top of his 19 chase-down blocks, Suggs has swatted a shot, stolen the rock, or forced a turnover 33 more times, while the Magic have scored points or drawn fouls directly off turnovers forced by Suggs on 15 possessions.

Have you heard that Jalen Suggs used to be a defensive back in football? Pick-Six Suggs is alive and well.

Orlando ranks as the third-best defense in the league, primarily because they force the second-most turnovers (17.4 TOV%), grab the second-most defensive rebounds (25.4% DREB%), and hold opponents to the seventh-lowest shooting percentage (53.1% eFG%), via Cleaning the Glass.

Suggs’ rotations have been timely, his shot contests have stayed active, his second and third effort always shows up.

Jalen has personally contested 71 shots that opponents missed.

Sometimes he’ll rotate so well he contests multiple shots in the same possession, or gets his active hands on the ball for a deflection without recovering the loose ball and still make it out to the perimeter to close out on an open shooter.

Jalen Suggs Contesting Missed Shots – Part 1

Jalen Suggs Contesting Missed Shots – Part 2

Finding a Role Update: The Offense

While Suggs’ All-Defense level impact has been as dominant as ever, the full-time point guard experiment has been inconclusive at best or average at worst.

Even though Orlando’s elite defense has been spearheaded by Suggs’ willpower and tenacity for four years running, after Paolo went down, the Magic’s offense took off once they put the ball in Franz’ hands as primary initiator.

Letting a career-high volume of 3PA fly, launching just under 7 threes per game, Jalen’s efficiency from downtown has regressed after a hot start, down to 31% 3P%.

Perhaps losing Paolo has changed Jalen’s shot volume from more open secondary closeout-attacks and off-ball spot ups, where Suggs is hitting 38% 3P% on 93 Catch-and-Shoot 3PA, to more on-ball usage contested jumpers and pull-up threes, where Jalen’s converting just 10% 3P% on 30 pull-up triple attempts.

The skillsets to watch before the season were his Floor General primary initiation, his P&R decision-making, and his Pull-Up 3 effectiveness, where there’s still much to be desired for consistency in all three.

According to Synergy, Jalen’s rated average in most playtypes (P&R Ball-Handler, Spot Ups, Transition, Handoffs).

Suggs rates excellent in ISO efficiency, scoring 1.22 PPP on 23 possessions.

What Suggs has proven thus far is his connective floor-spacing, making team-first reads on both ends, knocking down a high volume of catch-and-shoot threes on good efficiency.

Even taking on more usage, his energy levels are never depleted. Time will tell if Suggs can find consistency as more of a primary creator for the team, but no one can question his will to compete at every opportunity.

Stats as of 11.27.24

The post Don’t Drive By Jalen Suggs appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 1 appeared first on Swish Theory.

As more and more talent clamors for spots among the 450, leashes grow shorter. Patience wears thin as the sheer number of options rises. Team context can give a bit more leash, or take it away entirely. It used to be that a first-round pick, especially those in or close to the lottery, would get second contracts even if struggles were present. Now the pressure mounts to decide if a second deal even comes.

Goga Bitadze was on track to become one of the forgotten men of the NBA. Taken with the 18th overall pick in 2019 by the Indiana Pacers, he immediately filled a position of need. Myles Turner was the only true center on the roster and was not exactly a roll man off screens or a prolific rebounder, two spots Goga was pegged to be positive in. Yet that did not develop, and two years later Indiana took a shot on Isaiah Jackson in the draft before buying low on Jalen Smith from the Phoenix Suns.

The writing was on the wall. Goga was not performing, Indiana now had options, and the leash had run out despite being a struggling team. That next year, Bitadze was waived around the deadline. He seemed destined to be remembered in NBA history by only an image:

Forgotten on draft night. Forgotten in the league. It’s a sad but all too familiar story in the modern NBA.

Then the Orlando Magic signed him, and Goga got a new lease on his NBA career.

Offensive Overview

A glance at Goga’s shot chart over the past 750 attempts may be misleading, but it speaks to his overall misuse in Indiana.

Over 170 games with the Pacers, he took roughly a third of his field goal attempts came from beyond the arc. He stayed in that offensive role despite shooting 25.6% from deep. That’s not going to fly, and neither does his shot; if anything, it thuds.

When the Magic got Goga in the building, the message was simple: “Hey man, stop that.”

43.7% of his Pacers attempts came beyond 10 feet. That number has plummeted to 9.1% in Orlando. Simplifying his offensive game has paid dividends for both the Magic and Goga himself. Focus on what you are good at, not what you could be good at.

This has led to some surprising results.

The Roll and Slam Man

Synergy has credited Goga with 1.3 points per possession as a roll man, a strong mark for a big. In an offense with two primary scoring threats (Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero) the others are often ignored by the defense and forced to beat them. Bitadze is more than capable of good roll possessions when the defense is forced to key in on the ballhandler.

Even when running PNR with players who are less of a threat on the ball, Goga rolls with authority and can finish through contact with a full head of steam.

This ability to draw contact and finish lobs makes him a strong outlet for Orlando’s perimeter creators. He has, however, shown an ability to do more than just finish off the roll.

With Los Angeles mismatched on the above play, Goga seals the inside position off the roll, knowing this will draw help from Mason Plumlee. Chuma Okeke works in tandem by cutting into empty space where Bitadze finds him for an easy two.

Bitadze also knows when to take advantage of help being sent to cover his rolls, especially on empty side actions, and find perimeter options.

The playmaking ability Goga has shown is not elite by any means (56th percentile assist rate amongst bigs) but the ability to recognize gaps and opportunities has served him well in other areas.

Dribble Handoff Utility

I’ve always loved dribble handoffs more than pick-and-rolls. Part of that is the Warriors brain I grew up learning, but on a basic level, it is much easier for the screener and handler to make shoulder-to-shoulder contact. With a screener like Goga the more of an obstacle he can be the better.

With Orlando running a lot of creation through their 3 and 4 in Franz and Paolo, Goga’s physicality is needed to dislodge a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo from the ball. That creates a momentary 2v1 in the above possession where Brook Lopez has to guard the driving Franz while hedging against the lob or layoff pass behind him to Goga. Either way, it’s a great chance at two for Orlando, all created because of that contact at the point of the dribble handoff.

Another important aspect of a DHO is that just the thought of his contact will force the chasing defender to go over and create downhill opportunities. That threat alone is enough to create separation.

Goga is quite good at immediately taking the space that has been afforded to him. With Day’Ron Sharpe committing early to the Franz drive, Goga takes the space behind him to position himself for the layoff pass and dunk.

But there is far more craft to Goga’s DHO game than just being large and in the way.

He’s particularly adept at early slips, preempting the contact to get space through the defense. That is an important read-and-react tool for any DHO-running big to have.

That awareness also translates to faking the dribble handoff entirely, a skill that takes patience and the ability to recognize gaps in the defense if they oversell to take away the ballhandler.

Recognition of playmaking opportunities and processing speed, in addition to passing and a pinch of dribbling skill, makes Goga a fantastic operator of 5-out DHO actions. Bitadze has to evaluate options in rapid succession to take advantage of a spread-out defense. The results so far have been excellent.

Not only can Goga use the 5-out DHOs to open opportunities for himself, but for teammates as well.

It works in more layered actions to boot. Watch below how Paolo and Franz follow the same path, cutting through the middle before Jalen Suggs arrives as a third option.

This requires Goga to rapidly process the best options, and most importantly exercise patience. Instead of forcing it to Paolo or Franz he instead waits for further chances to develop and takes the safer route. That’s not to say he cannot make plays from 5-out though.

Goga is more than a simple roll-and-cut guy. This added utility as a dribble handoff man adds new layers. The ability to roll and score, set strong screens for others, and make the extra decisions and passes helps Orlando flow through their actions better. On a team lacking true depth of playmaking and scoring, this is a huge boon for the Magic.

And there are more ways he contributes to this offense.

Budding Glass Crasher

For the third straight season, Goga is posting an offensive rebounding rate at or above the 73rd percentile for big men. His bruising physicality and size make him a true force around the basket when a shot goes up.

Though very good at getting these offensive rebounds, the finishing tends to leave a bit to be desired. Goga tends to slap and bat at the ball to generally poor results.

There are still some instances where it works, to be sure. But this is a large reason why Goga’s rim numbers look so poor on the whole (31st percentile rim finishing). No question, however, that a few tip layup misses are better than a first-try defensive rebound.

Playmaking Flashes

Beyond the short roll and DHO passes we’ve seen, Goga surprised me as a playmaker from both the low and high post, and occasionally on the move. The bounce passes in particular have my attention.

Sometimes he chooses to get extra spicy with it. What is it with these European centers and their no-look passing?

The opportunities are rare, but Goga has shown an ability to make basic reads while on the move to keep the wheels greased.

Is Bitadze going to be the player you can consistently run the offense through to create advantages and make reads? Probably not. He doesn’t need to be. When the actions flow around him through the other handlers, he’s not a place where the possession goes to die. Surrounded by active cutters and possible shooters, Bitadze shows he can make enough plays to not be a drain without demanding usage, evidenced by his 77th percentile assist-to-usage ratio. That’s more than enough for Orlando’s purposes.

Growth Areas

As previously mentioned, the finishing is truly a mixed bag.

Sometimes Goga has quality tough finishes at the rim, as you can see below:

The touch is generally poor around the basket, however. He clangs a lot of layups off the iron especially when unable to use his right.

Another mixed bag area, which ties to the finishing, is the post game. He’s very inconsistent as a scorer unless he can get to the line.

The post-up thing isn’t a huge wart on his game. But an extra bit of touch and footwork would help him exploit mismatches or make good on the occasional late shot clock bailout possession.

I’d also like to see more consistency as a cutter. He’s excellent when he does it: picking spots, moving between dunker spots, and absorbing contact with his finishes.

It’s not so much a frequency issue, as cutting comprises the majority of his scoring opportunities. It’s the consistency of finding the spots, using physicality to maintain his position, and of course the finishing.

The progress Goga has made on the offensive end of the floor has benefitted Orlando in a major way with all the time Wendell Carter Jr. has missed. Their offense is 7.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a 90th percentile mark in the entire league. Bitadze has become an important cog in this system and proved that his game can translate. And it’s probably not the better half of his game.

Defensive Overview

Since arriving in Orlando, Goga Bitadze has been an absolute force on the defensive end of the floor.

In limited minutes last year, his on/off defensive splits were nothing short of sublime. Opponents scored 7.5 less points per 100 (95th percentile), their eFG% dropped 5.7 points (99th percentile), and the team controlled the glass (77th percentile OREB decline).

Those numbers have dropped off slightly, but still sit in a fantastic range. Those same three categories are in the 77th, 87th, and 58th percentile respectively. The individual numbers back it up as well. Goga currently sits at 10th in overall defensive estimated plus-minus (EPM), one of the most stable catch-all metrics. So, how exactly is a plodding big having such a massive impact on an already strong defense?

Elite Drop Coverage

Goga is not the guy to switch out on the perimeter or hard-hedge a screen. In the rare cases where he finds himself mismatched, it doesn’t go well.

Worrying about switching or playing up to the level of the screen is less of a concern when Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black are navigating the screens. The basic principle of drop is leaving the guard on an island and cleaning up whatever gets through. So when your guards can hold their own on an island, it delineates where Goga needs to be and what he needs to take care of.

Goga is especially good at taking up the space drivers can take, and can even affect shots in the midrange with his length and timing.

Notice the clean footwork, the wide hands, the way he coils himself to get ready for a jump. Goga is a master of conserving energy and waiting for the right time, which is especially necessary when dealing with possessions going behind or to the side of him.

The excellence in drop also applies to dribble handoffs. This is where the hands become even more important. With DHOs, the big is usually going to be closer to the level of the screen before dropping off, and quick hands are needed to make plays before things can get behind them.

The issues show when he plays up high. Unless he can head off the play at the start with a quick steal or block, bigs have no issue with getting in behind his drop for lobs or easy layoff finishes.

Empty-side actions are another way for other teams to take advantage of that space. Without a tag coming from the wing, he is the only thing left to impede the big. When that big is Anthony Davis it only becomes more difficult.

Though there are ways he can be beaten, the overall objective is accomplished. Nearly 70% of the offense initiated against Goga comes from pick-and-roll ballhandlers. If he’s staying in his drop with good screen navigators this is the way things need to be funneled. Deny the roll man and keep the easy attempts off the table, then force them to beat you in the midrange. Considering the results, an eFG% four points below league average, his mission has been accomplished.

And it’s not the only impressive portion of his defensive game.

Constant Physicality

Goga LOVES to throw his weight around. It’s not always to the benefit of the team, but he sure does it.

There are definitely instances where it doesn’t pan out:

This often comes in rotation, on post-ups, or trying to wall off a ballhandler in unsettled situations. The third situation is one where he commonly overdoes the body bump and gets in trouble.

When it comes to being posted up on, Goga has no hesitation to make his opponent extremely uncomfortable.

When he puts the physicality, the quick hands, and footwork together it can be a thing of beauty.

He certainly pays for this physicality in terms of his fouling – this year represents a career-high in discipline with a 37th percentile foul rate – but it has plenty of benefits. He has an excellent 0.86 PPP on post-ups. That physicality also benefits him greatly in rotation.

Rotational Power

When Goga sees an opportunity to make an impact in rotation, he can make some incredible things happen.

Coming from the weak side? He can do that.

Someone wants to take him on at the strong side? Good luck with that.

Anybody who tries to take him straight up is in for a rough time. I respect Gary Trent Jr. for trying here, I do. But it was not his best idea.

He’s also quite good at the non-traditional big rotations. Try to run action behind him or screen him out of the play, he’ll still find a way to make it into the play.

It’s not all perfect. Like many players, Goga tends to overhelp, especially as a player who thinks he can block everything. Though he is often right (95th percentile block rate), it gets him in trouble from time to time.

Overdoing the block hunting can lead to preventable putbacks, as it does in the first clip, or create openings for cutters as it does in the second. As a big, he has a responsibility to control the glass after a potential missed shot. Going all-out to block an already contested shot only adds so much value when it opens up an easy second-chance point.

Beyond overdoing rotations, there are certainly rebounding concerns to address.

Rebounding Struggles

For someone as big as Goga is, he does tend to get outmuscled on the glass with annoying frequency. Players know how to get leverage underneath him to take him off center. In short, he needs to remember an American football maxim: the low man always wins.

There are also instances where Goga doesn’t engage enough physically. Not only would that disappoint Dennis Reynolds, but it’s a letdown for his teammates as well.

This lack of consistency in technique and effort is a big reason why his defensive rebounding numbers are so middle of the road. A 43rd-percentile rebounding figure is not going to work for a man of his physical stature.

But when he DOES choose to impose himself, the results are quite good.

Applying the technical aspects in conjunction with his size is where it gets good. You can see in the above clips how he gets low to create leverage. Bitadze also shows the awareness to push his man under the basket when necessary, one of my favorite crafty rebounder plays.

The good thing about Goga’s rebounding is that the shortcomings are fixable. It’s not a question of physical ability or coordination; he needs more consistency and to apply himself. And if he gets there we have a potentially dominant rebounder on our hands.

Growth Areas

If Goga stays where he is at defensively, he’s already great. Perhaps a bit system-specific with his need to be in drop but that is a workable shortcoming with the right personnel. Who knows, maybe there is some agility growth in his future to accommodate a better blend of coverages.

But if he can show more restraint in help, control the physicality to avoid fouls, and clean up the technique/effort as a rebounder? That might just be one of the premiere defensive bigs in the league. It can only go up from here. And when “here” is already a top-10 player in D-EPM the possibilities are tantalizing.

Future Outlook

Orlando has already found a diamond in the rough, one that has played a major factor in their early arrival to the playoff conversation this year. If Wendell Carter Jr. continues to struggle with his health and his play, he will play a huge role in how far this goes in the current season.

For Goga himself, this season positions himself to do quite well in free agency this upcoming offseason. The offensive utility as a roll man and DHO runner with some passing chops fits him in well, and most teams still rely on drop in PNR, so the scheme fits are endless.

The fact that he is already THIS impactful on both ends, especially the defense, speaks to his value. Even marginal improvement as a finisher on the offensive end, or the aforementioned defensive growth areas, makes him an easy starter for any team looking to improve their center play. Goga may never make the jump from “star in his role” to a true star, but he will deliver a lot of value regardless. And hopefully he makes a nice chunk of change along the way for his efforts.

From a near league washout to one of the more impactful centers in the game. I’d call that a success story already.

The post Finding a Role: Goga Bitadze appeared first on Swish Theory.

With Orlando down by 1 in the dying seconds, Suggs drove into the paint, embracing contact, hoping to finish over the top of Christian Wood. He missed. The Lakers hit two free throws to extend the lead to 3. On the final possession, Suggs corralled the offensive rebound after a missed attempt by Franz Wagner, hurried to the 3-point line, got a good look… and missed again. 

Suggs immediately buried his head in his jersey, irate at himself for the missed opportunities. He had finished the game with 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal but none of that mattered because his team lost. 

“I wear my emotions on my sleeve. I’ve done it my whole life. I don’t hold anything back,” Suggs told me over the phone last week. “Tears flow because as a team, we worked hard. Everybody gave their all out there in an away environment where we had a chance to win it, so I just wanted to be there for my team.”

That isn’t just a one-off occurrence. If you turn on a Magic game at any point this season, you’ll quickly learn that Suggs is one of the most expressive players in the league. After every possession, every defensive stop, every loose ball recovered, and every shot made by his team, he is making his presence felt, screaming, yelling, and oftentimes cheering on his teammates. His competitive fire oozes out of him as if it can’t be contained in his body. 

“My competitiveness has been there since I’ve been a little kid. And I think it comes out in anything I do. Whether it’s on the court, off the court, watching more film than the next person, beating somebody to the gym, beating somebody to breakfast, it’s something I can carry over all the time,” said Suggs. 

Where that carryover is probably the most evident is on the defensive end. Suggs has become a full-time starter for the Magic in his 3rd season and, very quickly, has turned himself into one of the premiere guard defenders in the entire league. 

“I didn’t know I was gonna be a starter until the first game, to be honest,” Suggs said when I asked what the conversation was like with Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley about becoming a permanent starter. “I think at the end of the day defense is about heart, you know, and then how hard you want to play defense. Coach says it all the time, ‘You want to leave this game on your own terms’ and I really took that to heart.’”  

Heart is probably the best way to describe how Suggs plays on defense. Of the 23 starting lineups that have played over 80 minutes together this season, the Magic starters have the 4th best defensive rating, allowing just over 102 points per 100 possessions, and the 7th best net rating among those starting units. A big part of that is Suggs. 

He’s never one to give up on a defensive possession. He’s vocal as the weak-side help, guiding his teammates to the right spots and serving as a sort of anchor for the current #1 defense in the league. 

His quick feet make him a menace at the point-of-attack and his anticipation skills and awareness allow him to be one of the best help-side guards the NBA has to offer. 

As of the time of this writing, he is third in the league in steals per game averaging over 2 per night, a career-high. He’s 10th in the league in total deflections with 40, 5th in deflections per game, 3rd in total loose balls recovered and 1st in defensive loose balls recovered. 

For Orlando, he’s 1st in overall deflections and 2nd in the total amount of contested shots.

For those who like advanced metrics, Suggs was recently ranked the 3rd most impactful defender in the league according to Dunks & Threes EPM metric. 

Suggs is well on his way to a spot on an All-Defensive team this season. But what’s making him so effective on that end? 

The thing that pops the most when you watch him is his spatial awareness off the ball. He’s always on the balls of his feet, like a goalie in soccer preparing for a penalty kick – ready to pounce in either direction. His speed, anticipation, and hand-eye coordination are instinctual as if he was born to do exactly this. 

But there’s a reason for that. 

By now, most people know Sugg’s backstory. A star quarterback in high school who instead opted to play basketball rather than pursue a career in football. And while he’s not on the Gridiron, making plays, some of those requisite football-adjacent skills have lingered and even prospered on the court. It’s something he acknowledges too. 

“I think just acting instinctually. Defense, especially in football is so much just reading and reacting, if you second guess it, you’re going to be half a second late,” Suggs said when I asked him if there’s been a carry-over from one sport to the next. “It’s about being a ball hawk. And not only how hard you do it, but doing it intelligently. And that’s what we’ve been talking about a lot over here: I see everything but how can I anticipate?”

This is an area he’s made massive strides in. Suggs is a risk-taker, in the best way possible on defense. And while most of those risks have paid off this season due to his instinctual skills, he can sometimes be caught out of position or swipe at the ball one too many times to get a foul called on him. 

“I see what’s going on two, three steps ahead on that end, but how can I put myself in a position to not always go for it and just to be in solid positions, show my body maybe just force a tough shot, not give up a shot,” said Suggs who is averaging a career-low in foul rate this season. 

He still gets caught up at times, and he’s still learning when and where to utilize his hammer-like hands. Ultimately, opposing offenses should know that they can never turn their back on him or risk turning the ball over. 

It’s become somewhat cliche to talk about Sugg’s football skills and how they translate over to basketball – but it’s true.

“I really just kind of look at it as a safety in football, you know, being that line of protection for the team, being a communicator and I get to see everything on the floor,” said Suggs. 

I watched every single Magic game this season and I can tell you that the way Suggs describes his defensive acumen is unequivocally true. 

I was awe-struck by Suggs’s ability to telegraph passes, shut down plays, and just absolutely dominate as the weak-side help. 

Oftentimes, Suggs is the final line of resistance and oftentimes, he bails out this Magic defense with his incredible timing. 

With that being said, here is over 7 minutes of film to illustrate the point. 

There’s a joy to the way Suggs plays on defense. Off the ball, he’s a menace, but on the ball? He’s just an irritant. 

He picks up full-court on most possessions. He’s in your chest, pressuring the ball, knowing that one wrong move by you, the offensive player, and he’s going to take advantage. To him, it’s a game. 

“I think defense is fun to me. And I think that’s why I take so much pride in it. And, as you continue to grow, everyone works on offense. You rarely see people work on their defense,” Suggs said while detailing the off-season regiment that helps him work on the defensive side of the ball. He told me he’s usually in the film room, just watching hoops.

It’s paid off in a major way. Suggs has the playbook down on a lot of players in the league. He uses his quick feet to duck under and navigate around multiple screens. Those same quick feet help him slide with the faster guards in the league and his overall strength helps him guard up in position as well. On one possession he’s sliding with Jalen Green, on the other he’s in the post, ripping the ball away from OG Anunoby. The man is never a mismatch. 

Orlando is in the top half of the league in terms of opponent shots at the rim and in the paint. Suggs, along with the litany of defensive-minded guards on the team like Markelle Fultz, rookie Anthony Black, and Gary Harris simply do not let you enter the paint without any resistance. 

Don’t believe me? Here are 5+ minutes of Suggs making things tough on some of the best players in the league on the ball. 

They say that defense is 50% skill and 50% effort. If that’s the case, Suggs maxes out on both ends. He uses his tenacity and effort to enhance his skills on defense – and it’s ultimately been a massive reason why Orlando has propelled itself to the best defense in the league and the best start to a season for the franchise since 2011-2012. 

Suggs has taken his role as a full-time starter and ran with it. Using it to not only make an impact defensively but also become more adept as an offensive player, averaging a career-high in points, 3-point percentage, and rebounds. He’s using his defense to help propel the Magic’s transition game on offense. And it’s translating to wins for his team. 

“All the guys that have been in here with me from the staff meeting, Cory X, Nate Dogg, Coach Mosley, people who have invested a lot of time and energy into me. I want to repay them on that,” said Suggs. 

As far as his competitive fire? Well, that’s not going away anytime soon. 

“You either have that or you don’t. Competitive fire is not something that you can teach so just trying to continue to be myself with it, embrace it, and just continue to learn how I can apply it in different ways.”  

And as Suggs continues to evolve as a player, experimenting and fine-tuning his craft – expect him to continue wearing his heart on his sleeve – because that’s what makes him such an effective player.

All hustle. All heart. All Defense. 

The post Turning A Corner: Jalen Suggs Is Orlando’s Ultimate Defensive Weapon appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

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