The youth are here to take over, yes. The old gods are dead and buried. There is no James, Curry, or Durant in this year’s final four. Even as their powers diminished, those four appeared in four of the last five conference finals. There’s not even a Jimmy Butler, who has made three of the last five.

Parity is another word looming large over this postseason. Since the Warriors dynasty broke apart, the 20 conference finals representatives have been comprised of 12 different teams. Much of the repetition comes out East, by far the weaker conference: the Celtics and Heat have 7 of the 10 ECF showings. Out West, the Nuggets, Mavericks, and Lakers have repeatedly appeared. Yet two conference finals in 5 years don’t scream dominance. More than ever, it feels like everyone has a shot.

That sentiment plays into an even more important theme in my eyes. When you look at the teams that have made deep runs, this year most of all, they took huge swings in acquiring talent. In this era of parity, those who push their chips in first are being rewarded. I want to explore the importance of forcing the window open and the rewards of temerity vs. the cost of timidness.

Dallas Swings, Thunder Go Down Looking

The Mavs-Thunder series is the clearest example of this idea. It’s frankly incredible how directly the trade ties between these two teams caused this series to shift.

Go back to the draft. Dallas owned a lottery choice but seemed intent on moving it to shed salary, and landed on sending Davis Bertans (and most importantly his $17M salary) with the 10th pick to Oklahoma City for the 12th pick. It’s hard to argue with the selections both teams made – OKC taking Cason Wallace while Dereck Lively II fell to Dallas – but the large trade exception Dallas created was huge. Sam Presti was handing an undeserved bailout to the Mavericks.

That exception was used to acquire Richaun Holmes, not exactly a game-changing acquisition, but it enabled them to do several things. After creating extra cap room, Dallas was able to acquire Grant Williams via sign-and-trade with Boston. Williams and Holmes did not pan out but became important salary ballast at the deadline. And this is where Oklahoma City only made things harder on themselves.

On February 8th, Dallas shipped out Holmes and Williams along with salary and picks for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Not only would these trades have been impossible without OKC’s draft night deal, but they helped even further by exchanging 2028 picks with Dallas to open up a 2024 first Dallas could use in these deals. It gave them the ammo needed to make two big deadline swings.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City made calls but ultimately settled on a bunt single of a trade in acquiring Gordon Hayward at the deadline. Now fast forward to the conference semifinals to see the impact of those deals.

Gafford recorded 11/7.5/1.3 with 2 blocks per game across 6 matchups with OKC. P.J. Washington was murder for the Thunder, recording 18/8/2 averages while hitting a ridiculous 47% of his 8.2 threes per game. Fittingly, Washington’s free throws at the end of Game 6 closed out the series. Gordon Hayward managed 15 inconsequential minutes in the series. Sam Presti effectively sold the Mavericks a pair of knives only to watch his team be stabbed to death by said knives. One team swung, another watched, and the swinging team ended up moving on.

And they weren’t the only team undone by their own mistakes.

Minnesota Pays Up, Denver Counts Coins

If you follow the NBA on a deeper level, you’re probably aware of the Kroenke vibe. They’re willing to cut checks for big players when necessary but will always find a way to cut costs in the end. This loss to Minnesota felt like a culmination of the pitfalls that philosophy comes with.

Minnesota threw a contract at GM Tim Connelly that Denver did not want to match, and it seemed prudent after last season as GM Calvin Booth helmed a championship team. Yet it was clear to all that it was Connelly who had his prints all over the squad. The entire starting lineup, one that dominated the 2023 playoffs, was drafted or acquired by Connelly before his departure. The Timberwolves saw what he could do and put unequivocal faith in him to build a team that could dismantle his creation.

The Rudy Gobert trade was unfairly maligned at the time and took only a year to prove everyone wrong as he anchored the best defense in the league. While Minnesota took more swings to improve on this Gobert team (acquiring Mike Conley, signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and extending their stars) Denver was content with what they had after the title. Calvin Booth told Bruce Brown not to let the door hit him on the way out. They acquired more picks to try and hit through the draft instead of getting proven talent to augment a championship roster.

When these two teams faced off, it was clear what kind of impact these moves made. Minnesota had more depth, more athleticism, and a feeling of confidence that Denver could not match. The stars performed, yes, but the role guys made the difference in the series. NAW’s defense and shooting confidence played a role. Mike Conley hit timely shot after timely shot. And on Denver’s side, guys like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson could not affect the series when the stars sat. If only there was a playmaking and defending wing Denver had in their grasp.

The throughlines of this between the two squads aren’t quite as clear as Dallas and OKC, but you can see how aggression from Minnesota’s front office won over Denver’s complacency. That’s why Minnesota is fighting for its deepest run in franchise history while Denver hits the racing track.

Knicks, Pacers Going Out On Their Shields

Regardless of who won that series, nobody could argue the Pacers or Knicks were withholding chips. Both teams went pedal to the metal during this season and reaped the rewards.

Indiana took perhaps the biggest swing of the entire deadline in acquiring Pascal Siakam, and he responded by powering them through the first two rounds of the playoffs as their leading scorer. Much hand-wringing was done when the deal was made, yet nobody can argue with the results as Indiana reaches their first conference finals in a decade.

The Knicks took an even larger amount of swings. They made moves for OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Precious Achiuwa, and Donte DiVincenzo over this past year. Donte and OG were among the primary reasons why the Knicks could win a street fight-type series against the Sixers despite the absence of Julius Randle. Had they not completely fallen apart with injuries (I am looking at you with malice, Tom Thibodeau) it feels like they would be playing Boston right now.

Sure, you could argue trading Obi Toppin to the Pacers this offseason burned them. But Toppin was buried on the depth chart at the time and would have likely fallen further behind after that bevy of acquisitions. And a 10 PPG role player who is generally heinous on defense isn’t going to be the one who got away.

Both teams swung, and both teams reaped huge rewards. And it gave them a puncher’s chance against the beasts of the East, another team not shy to make moves.

Boston Doesn’t Back Down

As previously mentioned discussing the parity of the league, only the Heat could match Boston in conference finals appearances over the previous four seasons. Yet those three showings had resulted in zero titles. In this era of “what have you done for me lately?”, many questions were being asked. Is Jayson Tatum the kind of guy who can lead a title winner? Can Jaylen Brown be his #2? At what point do we shake this up?

Instead of caving to those notions, Brad Stevens doubled and tripled down. He boldly chose to trade Marcus Smart for a better-fitting star in Kristaps Porzingis, needing little draft capital to do so. Then he went even further by taking advantage of the Damian Lillard trade to add Jrue Holiday. Instead of breaking this team apart, he only fortified their chances and was rewarded with a 64-win team that is stampeding through the Eastern Conference.

Even with Porzingis injured and unlikely to return until late in the conference finals, Boston holds a 3-0 series lead over the upstart Pacers and are overwhelming favorites to come out of the East, perhaps fully healthy. Jrue has been the playoff chess piece they needed, taking on important defensive matchups while canning 43% of his 4.7 threes per game. The role players don’t need to hit as hard when you boast Jayson, Jaylen, Jrue, Derrick White, Porzingis, and Al Horford. No team in this league can even hold a candle to that top 6.

Boston chose to push in every chip they could and are being thoroughly rewarded.

What Does This Tell Us?

Yes, young stars are indeed playing a major role. One of these four teams will represent a new title winner. All four are led by a star who is 26 years old or younger.

That only enhances the point here. All four teams could have sat back and gone “Well their primes haven’t even started yet, so we can wait” and chose instead to make short-term moves. The 2024 championship winner will be a team led by young stars whose management chose to force the window open instead of waiting for it to open naturally. The teams that have gone home already by and large chose to sit on their hands and wait.

Contention windows don’t stay open as long as you expect. Sometimes they don’t open at all. If you have the stars capable of delivering a deep run toward the Larry O’Brien trophy, take the swings now before your chance passes. It may pass sooner than you think.

The post Real Contenders Go Down Swinging appeared first on Swish Theory.

Pascal being dealt was not a shock; the Raptors were flirting with NBA purgatory and in desperate need of a full reset. The package was also not a shock, as three middling first-round picks for a 2x All-NBA player with 22/6/5 averages is more than fair. The shock was the team involved in the deal and the lack of a following extension.

The Pacers, despite their burgeoning success with a young team, do not play in a market that historically attracts free-agent stars. A player like Siakam probably wouldn’t be joining Indiana of his own volition over the summer, thus the need to make a deal and spend the second half of the season convincing him that re-signing would be a boon. It’s fair to hand-wring over the thought of spending that draft capital on a star that can easily walk. Yet it was a swing Indiana rightfully felt compelled to take given their success.

The deal paid off in their first playoff series, finishing off a stumbling Bucks team in six games. Siakam led the team in scoring throughout the series including a crucial 37/11/6 performance (with no turnovers!) in a Game 2 victory on the road, stealing home-court advantage and setting the tone. I wanted to explore how Pascal’s performance fueled Indiana’s upset victory and propelled them to the conference semifinals against the New York Knicks.

Offensive Overview

Pascal led his team despite dropping plenty of points from distance (27% on 22 attempts) and at the free throw line (46% on 26 attempts). Inside the arc, he was a dominating force. Siakam converted 62% of his twos, an incredible figure for a guy who takes a lot of midrange and post-up shots. His best work came in the post and in transition, where he generated 1.4 PPP. Watching him use his athleticism, size, and touch to overwhelm an undersized and relatively unathletic Bucks team was extremely impressive.

In addition to the scoring prowess, Siakam managed 25 assists to a measly 3 turnovers. Incredibly, he managed to take care of the ball well despite the volume of double-teams thrown at him. We will explore the film to see how Siakam did his damage in addition to creating for his high-flying teammates.

Midrange Dominance

As previously mentioned, Pascal has produced elite results in the post. A lot of that is due to his lethal midrange fadeaway shot. His strength/handle combination helps to put him in the right spots and the length/size gives him a nearly unguardable release.

The threat of his drives opens up a lot of pull-up midrange looks. With Myles Turner serving in a spacing role, Spicy P was constantly matched against Milwaukee’s bigs. If they backed off, he would rise and hit the middy.

Indiana even sprinkled in pick-and-pops for his midrange attempts, some real 1980s basketball looks.

Despite the frequency and efficiency, Pascal’s midrange game is not the only way he contributes heavily to this half-court offense.

DHO/Post Usage

The usage of dribble handoffs, both as the pitcher and catcher, has been interesting to watch. The presence of those bigs guarding him serves to pull rim protection away from the paint, opening up space for drivers and for Pascal himself.

The post-ups have worked with similar efficacy. The midrange fadeaway we covered before is a go-to weapon, but Siakam won’t hesitate to seal off a mismatch and get to the rim if the opportunity presents itself.

What impressed me the most with his post usage was the playmaking. The Bucks without Giannis were forced to double him early and often, forcing him to make kickouts or layoff passes instead. Siakam was more than happy to oblige the Bucks by breaking them down with a flurry of post passes.

In this upcoming series against the Knicks, Pascal will see a healthy amount of doubles against a Tom Thibodeau defense. If his teammates can work hard to find the open space for cuts and perimeter shots, Siakam’s post playmaking will be a major point of interest. And it’s not the only area where his playmaking impact is felt.

Pinch Playmaking

Against a team willing to load up in the paint, Pascal did not get many chances for clean drives. Milwaukee would send lots of help at the nail or collapse from the weak side to prevent paint points. Siakam showed a willingness and ability to make the right kickouts from his drives to take advantage of the defense.

This upcoming matchup with the Knicks will present similar opportunities. New York will send help to force shooters to beat them, and Siakam has to be willing to kick out instead of forcing shots over Isaiah Hartenstein/Mitchell Robinson/OG Anunoby.

Another interesting element for this matchup is how often Thibodeau wants to tag rollers. He will send help from all over, including the strong corner, to force the ball out of the hands of rollers. Possessions like the following will be crucial to breaking this excellent New York defense.

Expecting him to post another 8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is a little silly. Yet it will be important to sit around 4-5 assists per game while taking good care of the ball if Indiana has a chance. Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell typically share the playmaking burden. With the sheer volume of POA defense New York possesses, Siakam will need to step up as a shot generator for his teammates in order to balance the Indiana attack.

Offensive Glass Crashing

Not only was Pascal Siakam the Pacers’ leader in offensive rebounding during the Bucks series, but he also posted the 11th-highest offensive rebounding rate of 61 qualified players in the first round. It was an impressive display of effort, positioning, and coordination to generate second chances consistently. Despite being the third-tallest player in the 8-man playoff rotation (Myles Turner and Obi Toppin both clear him), Siakam spends the most time in the paint due to the spacing of those two. They place a heavy burden on Siakam to generate these looks.

And wow, did he ever dominate the glass.

Against a Knicks team that had problems on the defensive glass against the Sixers (74.4%, 11th among playoff teams in R1) Indiana will need a similar effort to tip the scales. New York was dominant at generating second chances (32.2%, 2nd among R1 teams) and Indiana needs to narrow that gap to get a possession advantage. It’s no surprise given that the Knicks were the top offensive rebounding team in the regular season, yet they were middle of the pack in defensive rebounding rate. The Pacers need Siakam (and the whole frontcourt, really) to capitalize on that weakness.

In a series that features a bad offense vs a bad defense and an elite offense vs an elite defense, the total possessions each team can generate will likely decide many of these games. Indiana cannot afford to lose the possession battle in a major way, or else their offense will have little chance of powering a series victory.

Transition Efficiency

Against a slow Bucks team, Siakam in the open floor was murder. He showed a fantastic blend of leakouts after shot contests, attacking an unsettled defense after grabbing boards and sealing mismatches early to generate transition looks. That 1.4 PPP mark ranked in the 84th percentile among all players in the first round, and it’s easy to see why.

It’s not going to be this easy against the Knicks defense. They’re more disciplined, possess better athletes, and have a size/mobility blend that can make life difficult in the open floor. Former teammate OG Anunoby, one of the better transition defenders around, will likely see his minutes matched with Siakam to boot.

The need to generate baskets in transition is of the utmost importance in this series. Indiana generated a 90th percentile rate of transition offense in the regular season, falling to the 63rd percentile in the opening round. Conversely, New York was a 60th percentile team at preventing transition looks in the regular season, but fell to the 25th percentile against a quick Sixers squad. Siakam must press hard to attack the unsettled defense before that elite half-court Knicks defensive unit can organize.

Pascal was the key that unlocked Indiana’s offense in this first-round series. Of all 5-man lineups across the 16 playoff squads, Indiana’s top lineup (Hali/Nembhard/Nesmith/Siakam/Turner) generated the highest offensive rating at 134.2 pts per 100. That kind of figure with only one player scoring 20+ PPG is a masterclass in ball sharing and versatility of attack. It’s the other side of the floor that has me concerned.

Defensive Overview

The other side of the lineup stats are rough. That top Indiana lineup surrendered 113.3 points per 100 possessions, a 17th-percentile mark in the playoffs. There is some good in the midst of all that bad, including solid marks in turnover creation and defensive rebounding percentage. Yet they leave a lot to be desired, which is a surprise in a playoff setting considering that Nembhard, Siakam, and Turner are all above-average defensive players in my eye.

Against this Knicks team, they’ll have to avoid the easy mistakes and make a struggling offense fight for every bucket.

POA Success

Indiana switched 1-4 (even 1-5 at times) against Milwaukee, with Pascal finding himself going from guarding Khris Middleton to Damian Lillard often. He did an admirable job containing those two in my opinion. He could stick long enough to let a better switch come, got around screens for rear-view contests, and contained them when called upon.

They don’t need him to be the point-of-attack guard ace when Andrew Nembhard is on the floor, who will be seeing heavy minutes on Jalen Brunson. Myles Turner patrolling the back line gives an extra measure of confidence. Yet there will come a time when the switches happen. The length and footwork of Siakam will make life tough on Brunson and creation nigh impossible for the other perimeter players.

What’s equally impressive about Siakam is the kind of impact he can make even if the switching doesn’t pull him out to the perimeter.

Hustling in Help

Siakam has never been a traditional defensive event creator. But historically, his event creation has risen in the playoffs. His steal and block rates from the regular season to the postseason remain the same across his career, yet the percentile ranks climb higher due to the nature of playoff defense. Slower and more methodical offenses will take away opportunities to create those events, yet Pascal finds a way.

Even if not getting a steal or block, Siakam makes an impact as a rotational rim protector to affect shots and make life hard on those getting to the rim when Myles Turner is pulled away from the rim.

I was pleasantly surprised at seeing Siakam’s impact as a transition defender. He could outright erase the play or show the hustle necessary to make opponents earn it at the line.

Whether he’s on or off the ball depending on how the switch plays out, in the halfcourt or the open floor, Pascal Siakam finds a way to make an impact.

Post Defense Questions

Milwaukee had to go post-heavy in the first-round series, and Siakam was often a point of attack. Bobby Portis especially went to work often, and the results were overall great for Siakam.

Milwaukee managed to generate 1.19 PPP on these post-ups overall, a strong mark. Yet many of these came on tough jumpers or contested hooks. The numbers don’t do justice to the kind of looks Siakam forced Portis and Brook Lopez to take.

New York was not a post-up team in the regular season, even with Julius Randle. They managed a 33rd percentile post frequency and had the 2nd lowest post-up efficiency league-wide. Those numbers have only dropped in the playoffs: New York posted up a total of 9 times in their series against the Sixers. Zero came from their bigs, as OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, and Bojan Bogdanovic (who is now out for the playoffs) accounted for those nine.

It would be a surprise to see New York try to post up Siakam to any degree, if they choose to at all. Even in desperate times when the buckets dry up, smaller Knick wings going up against Pascal wouldn’t help things. But it merits keeping an eye on.

Lastly, we come to possession finishing.

Strong Rebounding

After his trade to Indiana, Siakam’s rebounding efficacy jumped in a major way. His 17.3% defensive rebounding share put him in the 91st percentile amongst forwards. That number has jumped to 18.3% in the first round and made a major impact.

This is where you could argue Indiana will need Siakam the most as a defender. New York is a punishingly good offensive rebounding team as mentioned previously. Pascal will need to put in work to end possessions, or else Indy’s suspect defense will have to get stop after stop just to get back on defense.

Playoff Outlook

Indiana will once again be scrapping as underdogs, but they face a similar task. Their high-powered offense will face a strong half-court defense. And their lackluster defense will need to compete against a shorthanded and underperforming offense. It feels like whichever team can put together sustained offensive runs will be able to wrangle this series.

Siakam is the kind of guy who can tip this in favor of the Pacers. If he can get to work against the likes of OG Anunoby and Josh Hart on the offensive end, that takes away a lot of what makes New York great. Holding his own on defense and making an impact in help to contain Jalen Brunson (in addition to keeping the non-threatening scorers in check) will be massive.

I’m foaming at the mouth in anticipation of this series. Two teams punching above their weight with young cores. A high-paced and electric offense against a grinding defense. Stars a-plenty and excellent role players (or Alfreds, as JJ Redick would call them). Let’s see what kind of impact Pascal Siakam can make to propel his team towards their first conference finals in a decade.

The post Pascal Siakam Fears No Deer appeared first on Swish Theory.

The post Ep. 4: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Arthur Kaluma with @DraftPow appeared first on Swish Theory.

When a great player becomes great, there is often the narrative of inevitability tied into the fabric. While there may be some truth to that – no training context would have made me an NBA All-Star – it is worth examining some of the more surprising star turns.

This series aims to not just identify certain significant leaps of statistical production, but also to identify the newly created patterns of complex actions grown out of more rudimentary ones. As a self-deemed draft analyst hoping to improve the employment matching process of prospects-to-teams as a third-party observer, looking for those kernels of magic that could be nurtured to become foundations of elite play is the most I can strive for.

Enter: Pascal Siakam

I chose Pascal Siakam to kick off this series because of his skyrocketing from an energy big at New Mexico State to now primary creator in his seventh season, all traced through his time with the Toronto Raptors.

Particularly, Siakam, the former 27^th overall pick, has had an all-time great developmental track in scoring with the ball in his hands. I use isolation scoring as a convenient proxy for this, as it showcases our subjects against a variety of defenses coverages and help schemes, with the focal point around creating as easy of a shot as possible out of nothing.

The below infographic shows how stark the increases have been over the years, with his repertoire of moves used to score in isolation growing from a simple two moves as a rookie (his vaunted spin move, but also ‘accelerate then spin’), a mere four in his second season (adding straight line acceleration, a crossover and the ability to power through an opponent to the basket) before experimenting more and more.

His first big leap came as a complement to Kawhi Leonard during the Raptors’ title run, with 45 of his 162 iso points coming in the playoffs. The following year was his second big leap, taking over the helm as primary initiator for the Raptors and earning his first All-Star bid. After being held back by injury in 2019-20, in the 2020-21 season Siakam’s iso rate rose significantly, now at 5.4 possessions per game, 5^th most in the entire league. Despite some more bad injury luck in 2021-22, Siakam has not only maintained his iso rate but improved his efficiency dramatically, now scoring 1.06 points per isolation possessions, tied with Kevin Durant and better than Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And that doesn’t even include how he’s averaging more assists per game than those three others as well.

How did a former off-ball PF with zero isolation points in college become one of the best iso scorers in the NBA? I break it down with tape from each season in the below video:

Enter: Arthur Kaluma

We will not get further into this piece without the essential note that this is no way a player or even necessarily style comparison. The whole point of outlier development is it is unexpected and extraordinary, and the unusual circumstances of Siakam not playing any organized basketball until age 18 makes any comparison further strained. Rather, Arthur Kaluma’s game and, especially, his driving, have some of those building blocks we look for as a scout, the same ones seen by Siakam in his earlier days.

To give a full picture of Kaluma as a player, he is a jab-friendly, rangy wing with sparks of skill but lacking refinement in many critical parts of his game, at this point. Kaluma’s lack of polish shows up more in Creighton’s structured system (often stationed on the wing or above the break with instructions to move the ball quickly, cut frequently), but still we see signs of a promising driver with the ball in his hands.

Sure, Art relies heavily on a pump fake which gets more bites than it deserves, but his creativity in getting an initial step, and adequacy with his handle into quick crosses then long strides means he can often find an edge even against tight coverage. It’s the execution after that is inconsistent.

In his two games with Uganda in FIBA World Cup Qualifiers in July 2022, Kaluma had more reign to create freely, often thriving in doing so to the tune of 23 points per game on 64% true shooting. These numbers far outpace his Creighton sophomore year output of 13 points per game at only 57% true shooting, despite playing against similar and at time tougher competition (such as Sacramento Kings big Chimezie Metu with Nigeria).

What Can Siakam Teach Kaluma?

The first takeaway I have in watching 2022-23 Pascal Siakam is how he has turned the practical into the artistic. The process is not always pretty how he slingshots his wiry frame from space to space or extends through a defender, often times garish and literal, but he has become one of the best at throwing off defenders with his arrhythmic, unpredictable movements. Once a meme for his predilection for his spin move and spin move only, now at the culmination of Pascal’s options, dozens in hand, there is a joy in trying to guess what buttons Pascal will try next. Siakam reminds one less of a 2K character and more a fighting game character whose options are always reliable and can be chained for combos, each made familiar through endless trial, error and muscle memory.

Second, but related, is the importance of locating your advantage wherever you have it. Basketball involves both quick and decisive movements in any four-dimensional direction at a unique or consistent point in a dynamic and never identical context. As long as you, as a player, have even one trait that advantages you over a given opponent: leverage that to the end of time and the rest of the game coalesces around it.

For Siakam, that is length, balance, flexibility, touch and stride length, a very fun combination he has juiced more and more over time. For Kaluma, his advantage also resides in his length (and, potentially, his touch around the rim) but also in his Siakam-like experimentation of footwork across situations, enabled by his fluidity of movement and ability to alternate strides and pace.  From a technical standpoint, Kaluma is closer to Siakam in his second year with the Raptors than at New Mexico State, even if the landing isn’t always there. Kaluma loves his pump fakes and jabs, but also has used spins, stutter rips, euros, up and unders, in and outs, leaners, floaters, left hand acceleration, pro hops at oblique angles, reverse lay-ins off both one and two legs, cradle reverses, Shammgods!, between the legs into gathers, snatchbacks, elongated slower strides. Even with inconsistent production and efficiency, that kind of drive versatility is notable for a 6’7’’ 20-year-old.

Another essential mark in his favor is that Kaluma is a good interior defender and rebounder. One note before we go further is that Kaluma had a knee injury in February 2022 which caused him to miss two weeks. His production, and most notably block rate, went down to close the season. While he looked healthy with Uganda, he was forced to sit out the second round in late August due to a knee injury which lasted through Creighton’s training camp. Kaluma has not looked the same level of athlete in his second collegiate season, and I suspect this lingering injury is at least partially to blame.

While his numbers are still decent, his block rate has declined from a very good 2.1% from a wing to a more modest 1.3%, instead of grabbing 15.8% of defensive rebounds only secures 14.7%. For context, these place him 39^th for block rate and 35^th for defensive rebound rate among all 6’7’’ high major players compared to 22^nd and 19^th, respectively, as a freshman.

These degrees of difference matter, as being able to defend up to PFs is potentially crucial for his overall success. As seen in Pascal Siakam’s progression, being able to guard up early on in his career earned him the slower-footed matchups needed to develop his 1A move and branch out from there. Versatility, as it were, contributes in turn to getting one’s self in more advantageous situations.

Over the spectrum of his tape, Kaluma has shown a keen ability for tracking rebounds and timing in traffic. Most notably, when Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner went down with injury at the end of Kaluma’s freshman season, Arthur was more than capable filling in as smallball 5 for stretches. As the primary defender of Kansas center David McCormick, Kaluma held the 6’10’’, 265 pound big to his fewest points scored in the NCAA tournament at 7 points on 2-8 shooting while also outrebounding him by a 12-6 margin (and still scoring 24 points in his own right to nearly claim an upset on the eventual champion).

If Kaluma can regain some of his lost vertical pop and sturdiness in the post with a healthier knee, the number of routes for his utility as a young NBA player grow exponentially.

Outside of these traits, Kaluma has shown adequacies if not fluency in any given area. His passing can be exceptionally creative at times, particularly out of his on-ball reps: this ability to thrive in chaos at times is another green flag for Kaluma’s upside, something we see consistently with Siakam over the years. But the execution of basic tasks can leave much wanting, most frustrating with occasional lack of care for where to plant his feet: that has to be cleaned up if he wants to be the minimum level of NBA player. In a similar vein, his attention on perimeter defense can wane from time to time, more common for young players in general.

Now, the shot. While there is a school of thought that Kaluma has to have the shot fall to work as an NBA player that I disagree with, it continuing to progress would make his life much, much easier, as is the case for most draft-fringe wings. Arthur commented that the injury made him pay more attention to it, slowing him down, and we have seen some progress: 33% on over 8 threes per 100 possessions is not bad, especially compared to his 27% shooting on 7 threes per 100 as a freshman. His mid-range and free throw percentages have creeped up slightly from poor to decent, with the one exception being the item most impacted by a decline of athleticism: finishing at the rim, down to 55% from 69% as a freshman, a nonsensical decline, especially with an increase in share of rim makes assisted.

Nothing looks completely broken, though Kaluma’s long frame with a wingspan around 7 feet necessitates a slow coil of a release. Kaluma is naturally a bit flat-footed, which makes him more effective stepping into shots with momentum already heading forward (such as dribbling into an ATB pull-up or hopping into the catch rather than waiting flat footed) than off a corner three catch and shoot. His touch near the basket looks good, able to adjust mid-air to soften the angle (at least, frequently before the injury, less so after), though does get caught driving too shallow or deep, a tendency to meander around the hoop once in the lane.

You can tell whether a Kaluma shot is going in whether he angles his right foot down into the shot, toes landing first, or stays flat-footed. If he gets that small amount of moment forward, the entire foundation is that much more stable.

Again, the Siakam comparison is unfair, as it is incredibly rare to find someone who only made three threes in two years of college play who now can hit four in a game or score over 50 points in a game in a barrage from all locations. But both of the players have good coordination and a solid foundation to get into their shots as college players, as well as technically sound follow throughs. The issue comes more from the footwork for Kaluma, who also plays by feel more than technique.  

At the end of the day, Pascal Siakam was able to put together new concepts and apply them to on-court performance at a historically significant rate. While no one can be quite like him, everyone can learn from his development.

The post Outlier Development Series: What Pascal Siakam Can Teach Arthur Kaluma appeared first on Swish Theory.