Carter was an intriguing prospect in the Big East last year, mainly due to his athletic juice and tenacious guard defense. His offensive game was rough around the edges, as he only shot 29.9% from deep and 42% on non-dunk two-pointers, but a guard with his length, motor, and screen navigation seemed like a solid rotational bet. Fast forward to 2024, where Carter posted an 11.4 BPM, put up 19.8 points per game on 59.8 TS%, and established himself as one of the best offensive players in the conference. How did Carter make such a great leap? And how can this newfound offensive production translate to the next level? 

Carter is an elite functional athlete. How many 6’3” guards can climb the ladder for reverse alley-oops, sour in for putbacks, and elevate with ease off cuts? No high major player under 6’4” had more dunks this year (26) and his 0.89 dunks/40 minutes is somewhere between high flyers like Ja Morant/Zach Lavine (0.93) and Dennis Smith Jr. (0.79) in their pre-draft seasons. 

Carter has fantastic burst, capable of blowing by his man off the bounce for easy lay-ups. He averaged around 5.5 rim attempts per game this season. But where Carter has shown immense growth is with his patience. He doesn’t strictly win with blow-by-speed. Providence frequently utilized him as a pick-roll-handler and ran him off curls and handoffs. He does a good job coming out of actions and getting to his spots with pace manipulation. Once he gets inside, Carter uses his length to his full advantage, extending over outreaching contests for finishes. He loves to stop and work with his pivot foot, getting to his turnaround or stepping to the rim. Per Battorvik, he shot 65.2% on 181 rim attempts. 

With his improved pacing, Carter’s passing has leaped. While still a score-first player, he looked much more comfortable waiting for plays to develop and finding lay-down windows. He upped his assist rate from 14.3% last year to 23.3% this year. There are times when he misses reads or doesn’t see a helper and forces the issue. Carter’s awareness of recognizing digs and gap help needs to improve at the next level. Regardless, his downhill style lends itself to creating open windows, which he usually capitalizes upon.

Shooting is the other major area of growth for Carter. Last season, he shot 33.3% on 69 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. This season he took 127 catch-and-shoot threes and nailed 40.2% of them. His raw three-point percentage increased from 29.9% to 37.7%. The question is whether or not Carter’s leap is a fluke. 

After watching and hand-sorting all of his catch-and-shoot threes this season, I found that 54 of his attempts came off of movement, while 73 of his attempts were stationary. Many of these movement looks came with a high degree of difficulty – sprinting off screens and firing from way behind the line. On stationary attempts, Carter shot 42.4% (31/73) versus 37.0% (20/54) in motion. Note that this is imperfect hand-tracked data from yours truly, but my main point is that Carter took a lot of difficult shots and was still pretty efficient. His 3-point efficiency could rise even higher with a tamer catch-and-shoot diet. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be empowered to shoot off movement at the next level. Carter has the self-organization skills to make difficult shots. It’s just that some of the stuff he was hoisting up this year was absolutely bananas. 

Carter also shot 34.0% on dribble 94 off-the-dribble threes this year, using his deceleration ability to create space for himself. I expect him to pull it versus unders pretty early in his career. 

His release looks a bit funky with a low set point, but the volume and versatility have me tentatively buying the shot. Carter is much more comfortable letting it fly, upping his 3PA/100 every year he’s been in college (5.8 in Freshman year, 6.5 in Sophomore year, 11.2!!! in Junior Year). This is someone who is undoubtedly confident shooting a basketball. 

Will Carter run a pro offense? Most likely not. But that doesn’t mean his offensive growth and usage spike are meaningless. The NBA isn’t made up strictly of creators and non-creators. High-level complimentary guards must be able to create to some degree and capitalize against a tilted defense. There’s a strong chance that Carter is a potent enough shooter to demand closeouts, which makes his offensive pitch all the more appealing. 

But it’s the defensive end of the floor where Carter will make his money. There were moments this season when he floated around, likely a side effect of his hefty offensive burden. But the vast majority of the time, Carter is locked in and suffocating. He’s a pest on-the-ball with strong, quick hands. With a 2.8% block rate, he’s a shot-swatting machine for a Guard. He routinely blocks jumpers on closeouts and is a deterring presence at the rim. There could be real tertiary rim-protection equity here with his vertical pop off two feet, length, and activity. Carter is exceptional at navigating ball screens, agile enough to stay glued to his man through picks, and boasting the recovery tools to impact shots from behind. 

Even at 6’3”, I think that Carter can guard some wings in a pinch. He has a strong base, preventing him from getting moved by larger-bodied offensive players, and his near 6’9” wingspan makes him functionally larger than his listed height. He held up well on switches this year, maintaining his ground against physicality and using his length to contest. 

The obvious drawback here is that Carter is old, having already turned 22 years old. But as has been well-documented, plenty of older prospects have been severely underdrafted. A quick checklist for evaluating multi-year college prospects…

Year-to-Year Improvement

If a player spends multiple years on campus, it’s vital to look for legitimate areas of improvement. Growth isn’t linear, but if a prospect is the same player they were as a Freshman after two years of school, the sell for further development beyond college becomes trickier. Desmond Bane is a player that comes to mind in this category, a sharpshooter who made strides as a ball-handler and passer throughout his time at TCU. As a senior, Bane nearly doubled his assist rate from the previous season (26.0% vs. 13.6%). 

Vince Williams Jr. is another example – a guy who went 12/55 from three his first two seasons at VCU and ended his career jacking up 10.1 three-point attempts/100 and drilling at a 38.7% clip. 

Production

Many of the best NBA role players were legitimate stars in the college ranks. Josh Hart and Derrick White were both 18+ PPG scorers in their pre-draft seasons. Production matters – an older college player should be able to put up numbers and dominate against college-level competition. Max Strus and Payton Pritchard each averaged over 20 PPG at DePaul and Oregon as Seniors. 

One player who I recently undervalued was Jaime Jaquez. I struggled to see how he would produce at the NBA level without maintaining his usage at UCLA. However, I ignored the most important thing about Jaquez’s game: he is good at basketball. Players that are uber-impactful in college are always a good bet. Jaquez has settled nicely into a lower-usage role in Miami, where he made an immediate impact for a playoff team. 

Immediate Go-To Skill(s)

Especially for older prospects, for which teams have less patience, a player needs to have something that keeps them on the floor immediately. Even players on the more raw side of the spectrum must give teams a reason to play them. This is something that should pop off the screen. Sam Hauser could shoot, giving him the in-game reps to develop into a formidable defensive player. Caruso and Herb Jones played their hearts out on defense, empowering teams to invest time into developing their shots. 

NBA Athleticism and Tools

The downfall of many. There is a baseline of athleticism that every NBA player needs to hit. Those who are small, slow, and weak become liabilities on both ends of the floor. Even guys who aren’t typically known for their “athleticism” hit meaningful benchmarks in college. Derrick White had 142 rim attempts and Christian Braun had 27 dunks. 

Carter fits each of these criteria with ease. He grew as a shooter and ball-handler and produced in a big conference. He’s a day-one havoc creator on defense whose athleticism pops off the screen. I think there’s a path for Carter to become a true star-impact rotation piece at the next level – someone who could easily wind up one of the top few players in this class.

The post Devin Carter is Still Underrated appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Basics

Garwey Dual stands 6’4.5 with a 6’10 wingspan and weighed in at a sinewy 175 pounds at the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit. Dual started his scholastic playing career in the Houston area for George Bush High School. There’s minimal information available on Dual’s early AAU career, with the next notable transition being his move to Indiana power Carmel High School. Dual saw limited playing time for a senior-laden team which boasted a 16-0 postseason record before falling in the state title game. Going into the summer of his senior year Dual only held offers from local IUPUI and UAB.

The summer of 2022 represented a major inflection point in Dual’s career, playing for George Hill All Indy, a locally based AAU team unaffiliated with the major shoe company circuits. Dual routinely impressed against the traditional grassroots powers. With a mounting buzz stemming from his AAU season and a standout performance at the Pangos All-American camp, Dual eluded the hype which would have came with blue blood offers by committing to Providence in June. Familiarizing oneself with Garwey’s path to Providence provides some clarity as to how such an intriguing NBA caliber prospect has gone unnoticed for so long.

Player Profile

Upon first viewing, what stood out to me about Dual was his build, specifically his proportions. Dual is a very ‘high hipped’ player, with extremely long arms and legs. Typically athletes with extremely long levers such as Dual are incapable of generating power quickly, whether that be vertically as a leaper or in a straight line driving to the basket. However Dual’s athleticism flies in the face of almost all convention. Instead of his physical dimensions serving as a limiting factor athletically, Duals long legs amplify his exceptional first step, as seen in the clips below.

Almost equally as impressive as Dual’s burst given his physical build is how flexible an athlete he is, and how he’s able to maintain his balance while contorting his body. As shown in the clip below, Dual can sink his hips to where his shoulder level is below that of his defender (even smaller defenders like in this clip), and gain the leverage necessary to get deep into the paint.

Throughout this article there will be mentions of Dual’s interaction with ‘points of conflict’ on drives to the basket. Points of conflict being instances where the player is able to penetrate the first line of defense, but is forced to make a quick decision based on the secondary defenders positioning. Dual’s pliability as an athletes allows him to completely deleverage the defender’s advantage at these points of conflict.

The clip above fully displays how Dual’s ability to maneuver through tight spaces and engage the backline of the defense. These unique movement patterns render Dual capable of carving open passing windows which would otherwise be unavailable. Below are a few examples from an assortment of games, where Dual’s ability to not only engage, but avert the help defender with his flexibility and variety of pick-up points.

Dual’s physical ability paired with his persistence in occupying the most valuable area of the court, the middle of the floor, makes him a tantalizing advantage creator. Now to delve deeper and explore how Dual’s skill as a primary ballhandler allows him to capitalize on these advantages.

At this point of his development, Dual is most effectively deployed as a point guard, seeing as he lacks the requisite shooting skills to draw closeouts and the off-ball instincts to function as an effective cutter. However, with the ball in his hands Dual consistently showed he could generate quality looks with or without a screen on offense. What makes this possible outside of his aforementioned physical gifts is Dual’s advanced reactive handle. As shown below, Dual is able to maintain his dribble in defender’s air space and comfortably handle the ball outside of his frame. These skills, in tandem with Dual’s stride length and initial burst out of his moves, allow him to dictate the terms of engagement with his defender.

The clip below is emblematic of the conflict Dual consistently puts his defender in. The threat his first step presents, along with the reliable hesitation dribble in his arsenal, forces Dual’s defender to yield space until they commit to forcing Dual left. Once the defender declares his intent, Dual decisively attacks his top foot and gets the finish. Much like a champion boxer, Dual is able to consistently beat his man by proactively applying pressure, getting his opponent on the backfoot, and winning the battle of positioning.

It is my theory that this is what constitutes an advanced handle, when the offensive player is consistently able to force the defender to reveal their intent and can react accordingly, hence the term ‘reactive handle’. Below are a few instances of Garwey Dual doing exactly this, using his handle to both flip his defenders hips and cut driving angles (taking the most direct path to the basket).

The Playmaking

No matter how highly you regard any player’s handle, as the level of competition increases, that player will only be granted the privilege of extended ballhandling duties if they prove capable of consistently creating for themselves and others. It is in this respect where I truly believe Garwey Dual shines the most. Per Cerebro Sports, Garwey Dual averaged 4.4 assists per-40 minutes with a pedestrian 1.3 assists-to-turnover ratio over the course of 31 tracked competitions. As valuable as data points can be, in this case I do not believe they tell the whole story. In fact, I believe these numbers belie Dual’s playmaking ability.

When it comes to facilitating, Dual possesses a keen understanding of timing. This understanding of timing is inextricably linked to his aptitude as a ballhandler. Dual uses his handle to access ‘pressure points’ of the defense, and capitalizes on this by making his passing reads as soon as the defender is forced to commit to a rotation. Dual’s patience on these reads is key, making the pass in the exact window of time where the defender commits to their decision to help amplifies the advantage provided to the recipient of the pass. This is apparent in the clips below, look how much space Dual’s teammates have after the catch.

Essential to any evaluation of a player who is projected to be a primary ballhandler is how they efficiently they are able to operate in the pick-and-roll and Dual, in a limited sample, has shown he can make consistent reads out of this action.

While the defensive acumen in these clips can definitely be questioned, knowing Dual can play with pace in the PNR and is willing to make the simple read is encouraging for a guard with such limited experience against high level competition.

An additional wrinkle of Dual’s passing ability, which leads me to be optimistic about how the skill will translate to the next level, is how manipulative of a passer he can be. Dual shows himself to be a layered thinker of the game often, who maximizes his advantages by playing to the defenders assumptions.

Take the clip below for example, Dual is operating as the ballhander in a side pick-and-roll, watch Dual and the tagger’s eyes in this situation. By looking off the roll man for a split second Dual is able to lengthen the rotation of the tagger and the roller gets a foul as a result.

While there are many instances of no-look passes taking place in situations where the offensive player already has an advantage, such as in transition, Garwey Dual’s persistence as a manipulative passer sheds light on his processing of the game.

Clips like the one above are instrumental in understanding how Dual perceives advantages. Specifically how Dual understands how misdirection as a passer can improve the degree of the advantage for his teammates. Dual not betraying any information to his defender can turn predictable actions, like the pick-and-pop clip below, into open looks.

As high as I am on Dual’s potential as a creator there are current limitations he has in this area. If there is one thing you may have noticed from these clips is all of the feeds have been with two hands. When discussing primary ballhandlers and their advantage creation ability, making one handed passes off a live-dribble can be a contributing factor to the degree of advantage being created. Another deficiency in Dual’s passing which consistently appeared on tape was his insistence on making lay-down interior feeds in traffic. These kind of ill advised passes made the bulk of Dual’s turnovers in the games I watched and I clipped a few examples below.

While this critique could be interpreted as nitpicking Dual’s creation ability, after all Dual is still generating deep paint touches on his own. However I believe these ill-advised passes to be symptomatic of a larger issue for Dual, namely his lack of strength and its relation to his finishing.

The Scoring

The discussion of Garwey Dual’s scoring is complex considering he profiles to be a player who spends a majority of the time with the ball in his hands. And in order to optimize his rim pressure and passing ability, it will be necessary for Dual to have consistent scoring counters he can rely on when he isn’t able to decisively beat his defender and get two feet inside the paint. Circling back to Dual’s reliance on high risk interior feeds on drives, I believe this is caused by his lack of strength, and indicates Dual’s lack of refinement as a scorer.

The clip below best encapsulates Dual’s current limitations as a finisher. Here Dual cleanly beats his defender off the dribble and gets inside the paint where he is pitted against 7’1 big man Dennis Evans, who in my mind is as good a proxy for NBA rim protection as you will find in high school basketball.

As shown here, Dual is a good, not great, leaper and currently incapable of absorbing contact at the rim without his shot being drastically altered. Below are a few more instances of Dual’s lack of contact balance and finishing craft preventing him from putting up credible attempts at the rim.

Strength development will obviously come with time as Dual is provided with better facilities and physically matures with age. However Dual will need to develop scoring counters inside the arc to add to his optionality on drives (notice how similar the drive plan was on each of the three previous clips). Improving his footwork in-between the three-point line and restricted area, to the point where Dual can incorporate a variety of pickup points and from there potentially build an arsenal of the touch shots necessary for any high usage NBA guard, will be key. Dual’s already shown flashes of this kind of adaptability, as shown by the clip below where he is once again pitted against Dennis Evans, but this time opts for a floater which he makes.

Dual’s floater is going to be a key counter he’ll need to rely on when facing greater rim protectors, and the comfort he has in the shot made consistent strides over the past season as shown below.

As Dual’s athletic advantage inevitably shrinks as he faces improved competition, expanding his repertoire to include these kinds of shots will be crucial to his development. So much of what separates good from great players is the self-awareness to implement moves specifically tailored to taking advantage of their unique athletic tools. Garwey Dual’s floater, paired with his 8’8 standing reach, would be an extremely useful tool to combat the formidable backlines he’ll face at the next level.

The Shooting

With every passing cycle the evaluation of guard prospects is seemingly reduced to how their jumpshot is projected to translate to the next level, and while this is probably Garwey Dual’s most glaring deficiency at the moment, examining his tape chronologically reveals much reason for optimism.

First of all, before diving into Dual’s shooting numbers and mechanics, I think it is worth mentioning how reluctant Dual is to take threes at all. As evidenced by the clips below Dual rarely seizes the opportunity to take even open threes and can kill advantages because of it.

Per Cerebro Sports, over the course of 31 games Garwey Dual shot 41% from three, however, this came on only 2.6 attempts per-40 minutes. While Dual did shoot an encouraging 80% from the free throw line on 4.7 attempts per-40, the mechanics and reticence towards shooting reveal a more complex shooting projection. In order to have a clearer view of Dual’s shooting development, and the trajectory it has been on over the past year, we will need first need to examine his mechanics beginning with his AAU tape.

The pull-up three above is the only instance of a Dual three I was able to slow down, and while it isn’t an ideal angle to judge mechanics we can gather a few basic insights from the clip. Working from the ground up, Dual’s shooting base consists of a dominant foot stagger and an extremely pronounced knee valgus. While there are a variety of opinions on foot positioning and its effects on jump shot accuracy, findings on this matter have largely been inconclusive (see http://thesportjournal.org/article/the-effect-of-foot-placement-on-the-jump-shot-accuracy-of-ncaa-division-i-basketball-players/). The greater detriment to Dual’s jumper in my opinion is definitely his exaggerated knee valgus on the takeoff. Knee “valgus” occurs when the knee moves inward, toward the midline of the body, no longer in a straight line between the hip and ankle. The image below portrays the difference between proper knee alignment and knee valgus.

I want to refrain from being dogmatic about shooting form, many of the best shooters in the NBA today shoot with some degree of knee valgus, however with Dual specifically I believe the extremity of his valgus is detrimental to his shot.

Knee Valgus, like most inefficient movements, are a result of the body overcorrecting for weakness in another area. My working theory is that Dual’s knee valgus is caused by tight and/or weak gluteus medius, the muscle running lateral to the gluteus maximus more commonly known as our butt. Dual is currently incapable of properly recruiting this muscle when he tries to generate power for his jumpshot, and as a result, overcompensates with an extreme knee valgus. What makes this movement pattern detrimental to Dual’s shot and not other players, is the disruption of energy transfer which occurs in Dual’s shot as a result of the knee valgus.

What I mean by ‘disruption of energy transfer’ is the inability to achieve triple-extension while shooting. Triple extension is the simultaneous extension of the hip, ankle, and knees to generate power. This concept in the context of shooting is best illustrated by the image of Steph Curry shooting below.

See how if you were to draw a line from the back of Steph Curry’s heels to the top of his head the line would be almost perfectly straight. Compare this to the images of Garwey Dual shooting below.

See how Dual’s torso is leaning forward, as if he is lurching towards the basket as he shoots. In my mind this is caused by an over-reliance in his upper body to generate power. Another tell that supports this claim is how negative Dual’s shooting elbow is as he transitions from his gather into the shot. Ideal upper body shooting mechanics require the player to provide as stable a platform for the ball to lie on before the shooter reaches their launch point, this concept is typically taught through the ‘triple-90’ principle meaning the player’s shooting wrist and elbow should be as close to 90 degrees as possible.

Even with a less clear camera angle it is apparent Dual’s elbow is at an angle significantly lower than 90 degrees. This drastic of a negative angle takes away from the straight line force generated through the ball and introduces unnecessary motion into the shot.

Another problem area of Dual’s shot from his AAU tape is his self organization after the catch. As previously stated, repeatability is integral to effective shooting mechanics and over the course of the grassroots season Dual’s form was erratic in large part because of inconsistent gathers into his shot. The following clip exemplifies this.

Breaking this down into a few still shots, Dual combines two traits least conducive to a consistent shot, a narrow unstable base as well as a low-dip gather from the opposite hip, away from his body.

These glaring inconsistencies in tandem with Dual’s reluctance to take threes in general paint the picture of a player who, to this point, has an extremely limited number of reps shooting in a game setting. This falls in line with what we know about Dual’s playing career so far. Not only did Dual miss out on essentially an entire year of interscholastic play his junior season at Carmel, but prior to his senior year there isn’t much evidence he had ever cut his teeth against high level competition on a regular basis.

Up to this point the Garwey Dual shooting projection has for the most part been bleak, however Dual’s final interscholastic season playing for Southern California Academy has provided much reason for optimism in my eyes. While Dual’s value system (value system being a players hierarchy of scoring preferences) as a scorer is definitely still geared towards attacking the basket, there has undoubtedly been a concerted effort to expand his game as a shooter and the newfound comfort is apparent. Take this spot-up three for example, Dual takes this in rhythm, with a much more compact release and cleaner energy transfer from his lower body.

Along with this pull-up three in semi-transition, I find Dual’s willingness to explore different scoring avenues very encouraging.

In an attempt to avoid reducing a players shooting profile to just their long range attempts, I want to briefly discuss the growth Dual’s exhibited as a pullup shooter in the midrange. Making strides as a scorer in these areas will be inextricably linked to Dual’s efficiency as a creator, and while the results are mixed at the moment, the process and ambition to pressure the defense as a midrange scorer has definitely improved.

Compare the two clips below, the first being an AAU game from the summer and an the latter from one of Dual’s games in the winter for SCA. Both plays are side pick-and-rolls to his right hand where Dual’s growth in getting to his pull-up is undeniable.

Dual still has a ways to go with regard to his consistency in these play types however, as shown below there are still ugly misses and it’ll undoubtedly take time to meet the increasingly high threshold of effective pullup shooting a primary ballhandler needs to meet in order to warrant high usage.

The Defense

The current NBA meta-game, especially in high leverage games such as the playoffs, is designed to find and repeatedly exploit the weakest link of the opposing teams defense. While this may seem like pedantic observation, and definitely has been an aspect of teams game planning in the past, the persistence teams have when it comes to putting defensively limited players in compromising positions has never been more prevalent. Typically these weak links have resided in teams’ backcourt, and the liability guards present on the defensive end has been reflected in recent draft history. Breaking down the past 10 drafts into two five-year increments, from 2014-2018 there were 16 players picked in the lottery under 6’5. Over the past five drafts from 2019-2023, there were only 9 players under 6’5 drafted in the same range. While there are obviously other contributing factors, there is always a degree of randomness to what kind of players compose each class, and I would not want to infer that the players who were picked in lieu of the sub 6’5 guards were all resounding successes, there’s been an obvious shift in what kind of players the NBA has prioritized. Relating this back to Garwey Dual, for as interesting as I find Dual’s offensive profile with his ability to frequent the paint and playmake for others, what was initially the most compelling part of his game was his defensive aptitude.

As previously discussed, Dual has an extremely unique intersection of length and movement skills. As effective as his stride length was in consistently creating space between himself and his defender, Dual is just as capable of using this length to quickly close space on defense. Take the example below, Dual aggressively helps at the elbow as the weakside defender, and is still able to recover all the way to the three-point line and block the opposing player’s shot.

Plays like these are littered throughout Dual’s tape. His combination of ground coverage ability, length, dexterity, and motor considering the offensive workload he carries, make him a consistent event creator on the defensive end (event creation being any blocks or steals).

At the point of attack Dual menaces ballhandlers with his length and extremely accurate hands. Over the course of 31 logged games by Cerebro Sports, Dual averaged 3.1 steals per-40 minutes. What is striking about Dual’s steals is the variety of methods he goes about forcing these turnovers. Dual can either rip ballhandlers as shown below…

Or Dual can pair his athletic ability with a keen sense of anticipation to disrupt passing lanes

Along with his impressive steal numbers, Dual also averaged 1.3 Blocks per-40. This number adds to the profile of a player who could potentially see a variety of assignments at the next level. A perimeter player who has displayed the ability to provide supplementary rim protection is exceedingly rare and keeping consistent with the theme of Dual’s steals, he is able to deter shots while being deployed in a variety of roles either as a low-man in the half-court.

Or guarding fellow guards on the perimeter…

Dual’s penchant for constantly creating havoc as a defender along with his physical profile lead me to believe he could be the caliber of defender who is able to produce independent of context, however a player with his range and dexterity would be a wonder in a gap-defense scheme where Dual’s aforementioned tools can be fully weaponized.

Despite all the praise I have heaped upon Dual’s defensive potential there are definitely areas of improvement which will be interesting to track during his stay as Providence. Dual’s typically uses a sub optimal defensive stance where his upper-body lies far forward of his center of gravity, hindering his lateral quickness and leaving him unable to contain his man on occasion.

The frequency of these ‘blowbys’ led me to circle back to an earlier discussed deficiency in Dual’s jumpshot, namely the weakness in his hips and glutes. I believe Dual’s inconsistencies in his lateral recovery, while partly due to his technique, are also caused by the limited power he is able to generate through his hips and glutes when sliding his feet. Strengthening these muscle groups could prevent instances like the clips below by bolstering his lateral acceleration, which at this point is the primary limiting factor to Dual’s defensive potency.

Final Thoughts and Role Projection

For as much time has been spent on Garwey Dual’s game at the moment and its development, I would be remiss to not mention the influence his future developmental context could play in his projection. Dual will be entering a veteran laden team and be paired in the backcourt with another potential draftee in Devin Carter. Carter and Dual’s chemistry will be interesting to watch develop as their playstyles are extremely different despite their strengths and weaknesses paralleling each other. Carter is a similarly talented defender to Dual, posting a tremendous 3.3% steal rate and 3.4% block rate for a 6-3 guard. However, Carter like Dual is a limited shooter at the moment having shot only 29% from three on a mediocre 117 attempts. Carter though does have experience playing off the ball and plays with an unobtrusive style which should allow Dual to play his preferred role of primary ballhandler. As far as forecasting Dual’s NBA role and his one-and-done potential, I do believe Dual is a prime candidate to spend only one season in college. The scarcity of perimeter players with his skillset should make Dual a notable draft candidate, however it is likely he will not have a ‘traditional’ statistical profile for a one-and-done candidate. What leads me to believe this is the state of flux Providence’s roster and team overall has been in, with the recent addition of Coach Kim English along with a bevy of former George Mason players, such as Josh Oduro, who will demand usage.

Ultimately what makes me so confident in Garwey Dual’s NBA future is his intersection of advantage creation, defensive playmaking, and willingness to develop his game by thorough experimentation. Watching his tape chronologically and getting insight into how steep the development curve has been for Dual leaves me optimistic that the interstitial aspects of his game such as off the dribble shooting will continue to progress at a consistent rate. His current lack of refinement in these areas may keep him from primary usage early on, but the bandwidth he plays with leads me to believe he can be an effective connective piece who punches gaps off the catch and continues advantages created by his teammates. As I’d touched on in the beginning of the article the 2024 draft class has been widely, and in my opinion, unfairly panned by the wider media for lacking compelling prospects and at a bare minimum I believe Garwey Dual proves this to be far from the truth.

The post Garwey Dual: The Most Intriguing Player in the 2024 Draft? appeared first on Swish Theory.

While the NBA playoffs rage on, the pre-draft process had its unofficial start as representatives from all 30 NBA teams made their way to Virginia for the 69th annual Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (“PIT”) this past week.

PIT serves as a chance for 64 college upperclassmen to test athletically and compete in front of scouts from every NBA team in an attempt to showcase why they deserve to be on their radar. The tournament has a storied history of producing NBA talent, even featuring star players such as Jimmy Butler, Scottie Pippen, Tim Hardaway Sr. and Dennis Rodman. Last year’s edition, for example, hosted nine players who went on to see NBA minutes this past season.

After making the trip to Norfolk last week, let me catch you up on what you may have missed, with a focus on those who made their mark above the rest.

Three Standout NBA Hopefuls

Craig Porter Jr. – Wichita State

Per game tournament stats: 9.0 Points, 5.3 Rebounds, 4.3 Assists, 3.3 Steals, 1.3 Blocks, 53/17/67%

*Shooting splits are 2PFG%/3PFG%/FT%*

On the surface, a 6-foot-2-inch guard scoring 9 points a game while shooting 17% from 3-point range isn’t particularly eye-catching. However, a look under the hood reveals one of the most interesting sleeper prospects in the entire draft.

If you ask any coach the best way to earn playing time they’ll almost always answer playing good defense. Craig showcased this constantly at PIT, amassing an absurd 4.6 stocks (steals + blocks) a game while also sticking to his man and recovering around screens at the point of attack. After finishing with the best standing vertical jump among the 61 attendees who participated in the athletic testing (34.5 inches, which would have been 2nd best at last year’s official NBA combine) and 2nd in the 3/4 court sprint, it’s clear that Porter has the athletic tools needed to impact the game defensively. While shot-blocking isn’t usually a priority as a guard defender, it is an area that a lot of the league’s best guard defenders standout in. Since 2008, Porter is one of just six players 6-foot-2-inches or shorter to finish a season with a block percentage above five. Looking at the list of college guards who managed block and steal rates similar to Porter’s you’ll find locksmiths like Gary Payton II, Derrick White, Danny Green, and Matisse Thybulle.

The obvious elephant in the room is on the offensive end where he scored a measly nine points per game with dismal three-point shooting. The low scoring is likely a byproduct of Porter’s PIT team opting to run their offense through other players, forcing him into a different role than he’s used to at Wichita State. With the Shockers, Porter ranked in the 91st percentile for frequency as a PNR ball-handler and 94th in isolation frequency. Don’t get it twisted, though: Porter is far from a ball-hog as evidenced by his 30.3 assist% this past season and 4.3 assists per game here at PIT. Porter dazzled the crowd making advanced reads often using visual manipulation to send defenders the wrong way before completing a myriad of different passes. That ability as a passer and ball-handler combined with his excellent finishing (65% at the rim in the half-court at Wichita State) proves he has many of the required offensive tools needed to succeed at the NBA level.

The clear limiting factor is his three-point shot, but even that has reason for optimism. Despite shooting a mediocre 36.3% from three-point range this season on underwhelming volume (only 5.8 attempts per 100 possessions), some of the underlying shooting indicators are very positive. He attempted 116 mid-range jumpers this past season at an impressive 44.8% FG% while also converting on 44.4% of his 36 floater attempts. However, even with some positive indicators, his 68.5% free throw percentage and hesitancy shooting off the catch with just 12 of such attempts this season doesn’t inspire the most confidence in his outside shooting projection.

Porter’s a somewhat confusing offensive prospect with a lot of both green and red flags. He also has some clear low-hanging fruit like his avoidance of driving baseline out of empty-side PNR’s as well as a heavy bias towards the pass or drive instead of shooting when faced with a closeout. However, it’s hard to ignore the value that high level point of attack defenders can provide at the guard spot in the NBA, especially those who offer some level of on-ball creation upside. When looking at what Porter offers and his likely availability in the late 2nd round or as an undrafted free agent, given his unique skillset it is hard not to get at least somewhat excited about Craig Porter Jr.

Sir’Jabari Rice – Texas

Per game tournament stats: 16.3 Points, 3.7 Rebounds, 3.0 Assists, 0.7 Steals, 0.0 Blocks, 70/45/86%

As a key contributor for a Texas team that was minutes away from a FinalFour appearance, Sir’Jabari Rice came into PIT with the label of a “winning player.” It should then come as no surprise, then, that his team cruised to a tournament championship capped off with Rice winning tournament MVP honors. He was the clear vocal leader for his team and, put simply, the vibes were strong throughout the entire tournament.

On the offensive end, the 6-foot-4.5-inch shooting guard’s game builds off him having the strongest go-to move in the entire tournament. A confident shooter and passer who happens to do both from the same slot makes Rice’s pump-fake a double threat, also serving as a potential pass. To truly understand how dominant this weapon is, you honestly just have to see for yourself. Paired with his phenomenal flexibility and agility, his pump makes Rice an absolute force when attacking a closeout. On top of that, he also does a great job of moving without the ball and quickly passing to keep the offense fluid.

As for the defensive side of the ball, Rice does a great job playing the ball aggressively while also preventing his man from getting an easy blow-by. Sitting close to the action you could clearly hear him communicating coverages when tasked with a ball screen. He fought through those screens well, recovering to his man quickly. With a long 6-foot-9-inch wingspan, he has the length to disturb shooters at a high level for a guard, and all-in-all provides more than enough value on that end of the floor. Given Rice’s readily apparent skill and his lovable team-first attitude it would be a complete shock to not see him on an NBA roster come next season.

Toumani Camara – Dayton

Per game tournament stats: 20.0 Points, 11.0 Rebounds, 2.7 Assists, 1.3 Steals, 1.3 Blocks, 51/17/94%

While Sir’Jabari Rice won tournament MVP honors, it was clear that the general consensus was in favor of Dayton’s Toumani Camara as the most dominant player in attendance. Despite a lack of team success during the tournament, Camara clearly had an extra athletic gear that the rest of the players simply could not match.

Throughout this past season at Dayton, Camara provided one of the single most valuable things in basketball: consistent rim pressure. That was no different here at PIT where his ability to get to the rim off the dribble at 6-foot-8-inches emphatically stood out. Camara’s known for his explosive leaping ability, highlighted by his 66 dunks in 68 games at Dayton, but his flexibility really stood out here, too. He’s very comfortable getting low and contorting around his defender at the first level to get downhill, an item many struggle with when they first face professional-level talent.

In his first game of the tournament, Camara dropped 27 points including a pair of three point makes which highlighted just how deadly he could be if he can get the shot to fall consistently. He converted on a respectable 36.2% of his three-point attempts this past season, but doing so at a volume of just 4.9 attempts per 100 possessions doesn’t inspire the most confidence in his outside shot being a major factor as competition increases.

In talking to people around the arena, most questioned if Camara would even opt to play in his team’s final game after proving all he needed to in the first two. Fortunately he did play, and while he struggled to score at the same level he did in the first two games, that gave him an opportunity to showcase what he can provide outside of scoring. His 13 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks with zero turnovers displayed that versatility.

On the defensive end, Camara was impactful as a helper, but did concede some blow-bys easier than you’d like. Fortunately, his size and recovery tools, highlighted by his 7-foot wingspan, were more than enough to allow him to recover and erase those mistakes. Overall, Camara’s athleticism and ability to create rim pressure by himself as a forward has landed him firmly on NBA team radars. That makes him our final pick for the highest-likelihood NBA hopefuls.

G-League With Pathways To The NBA

Nathan Mensah – San Diego State

Per game tournament stats: 13.7 Points, 9.7 Rebounds, 1.7 Assists, 0.7 Steals, 2.0 Blocks, 65/0/64%

Sales Systems was one of two tournament finals teams, driven by one consistent, major advantage: elite rim protection. That was almost entirely due to the work of San Diego State’s Nathan Mensah. Measuring in at 6-feet-11-inches with a 7-foot-5.5-inch wingspan Mensah was dominant as a rim deterrent. This trait stood out to such a degree that it very well could be enough to earn him a spot on an NBA roster on its own. However, for him to secure long-term NBA success he’ll likely need some specialty to add to his game on the offensive end. Most NBA centers standout in some way: some shine as a rim runner, others as a facilitator, maybe even as a floor spacer, all of which Mensah currently lacks. Mensah has a solid case for an NBA roster spot day 1, but realistically something has to improve on the offensive end for him to thrive at the NBA level. His passing may just end up as that skill, at nearly two assists per game playing as his team’s big man.

D’Moi Hodge – Missouri

Per game tournament stats: 19.3 Points, 3.7 Rebounds, 1.0 Assists, 1.0 Steals, 1.3 Blocks, 57/50/73%

D’Moi Hodge combines a pair of very appealing skills — versatile shooting and low-risk, mistake free basketball. After turning in a season at Missouri shooting 40% from three on a massive 14.1 attempts per 100 possessions, Hodge was able to reinforce his status as a knockdown shooter at PIT, converting on 50% of his looks from deep. When paired with his impressively mistake-free style of play (becoming just the 13th high-major NCAA player to have a turnover percentage below 8% while maintaining a usage rate over 20% this past season) creates a compelling guard prospect on the offensive end.

That mistake-free style carries over to the defensive end, too, where Hodge rarely messes up a ball screen coverage or finds himself out of position. Despite that relatively safe reputation, he’s still plenty aggressive as an on-ball defender, amassing a phenomenal 5.1 steal% this past season at Missouri. While there’s a lot to like about Hodge’s game already, as he’s certainly earned himself a spot on a G-League roster this upcoming season, his lack of offerings inside the arc on offense will likely need to be improved before he can expect NBA minutes with any regularity.

G-League Ready

Tevian Jones – Southern Utah

Per game tournament stats: 18.7 Points, 2.3 Rebounds, 0.7 Assists, 0.7 Steals, 0.0 Blocks, 79/50/100%

Grabbing the highest scoring single game of the tournament is one way to make sure you standout, and that’s exactly what Southern Utah’s Tevian Jones did with 36 points in his second game at PIT. The 6-foot-7-inch forward converted on 50% of his threes throughout the tournament, a skill he’s developed immensely during his time in college. We were also treated to flashes of his ball-handling ability, something he showed this past season as the ball-handler in three pick and rolls per game.

That being said, Jones’ stay at PIT failed to showcase his ability to contribute to the game in ways other than scoring. This past season, his 0.3% block rate, 1.6% steal rate and 7.2% assist percentage all fell short of inspiring confidence in his other traits. Jones clearly earned a spot in the G-League, but he’ll need to become a more well-rounded contributor while he’s there if he wants to get NBA looks.

Umoja Gibson – DePaul

Per game tournament stats: 11.3 Points, 3.0 Rebounds, 6.0 Assists, 1.0 Steals, 0.0 Blocks, 38/53/0%

Umoja Gibson’s first two games resulted in a somewhat underwhelming 8 points and 11 assists, and it felt incredibly unlucky. Gibson was doing everything right, always in the right spots, taking good shots and setting up his teammates well. He looked the part of the perfect game manager point guard. Which made it all the more exciting when he popped-off for 26 points and 7 assists in his team’s final game of the tournament. Umoja clearly has a great understanding of both his job within the team as the point guard and how to execute it. With that said, the level of skill required for a guard who measured in a hair under 6-foot-1-inch is disproportionately high compared to the rest of the league, and it’s unfortunately not clear if Umoja is there yet. Regardless, he’ll be running the offense of one professional team or another come next season.

Hunter Tyson – Clemson

Per game tournament stats: 12.0 Points, 4.5 Rebounds, 1.0 Assists, 1.0 Steals, 0.0 Blocks, 33/50/100%

*Sustained an injury 9 minutes into second game (missed 3rd entirely)*

Draining five threes in the opening game of the tournament, it felt like Hunter Tyson may never miss. Unfortunately his tournament was cut short with an injury in the first half of his second game, serving as an abrupt ending. Despite this, Hunter was able to showcase his high motor and ability to knockdown shots off movement and around screens. Shooters who can knock down difficult shots are valuable, especially those who stand as tall as Tyson at 6-feet-7-inches. That being said, he did seem a step slow at times on defense. On top of that, he didn’t seem comfortable getting downhill to attack closeouts, often giving up that advantage and opportunity to find shots at the rim. While Tyson’s sample size was small, his shotmaking certainly stood out and will undoubtedly earn himself a spot on a G-League roster.

Ed Croswell – Providence

Per game tournament stats: 17.0 Points, 8.3 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists, 0.3 Steals, 0.3 Blocks, 59/20/71%

Ed Croswell has an incredibly strong frame at 6-foot-8-inches and 247 pounds with a lengthy 7-foot-2-inch wingspan. He was a dominant interior force and was in the upper echelon of athletes at the event. He showed a clear knowledge of his responsibilities within the team, often cutting from the dunker spot, offering a great target for point guard Umoja Gibson. On the defensive end, it felt as if he didn’t miss his assignment the entire tournament. However, in today’s NBA spacing the floor is a necessity to survive, and Croswell attempted a mere five jump shots total during his 949 minutes for Providence this past season. With that in mind, Croswell is certainly bound for the G-League and has a lot of NBA upside if that shot ever does come around.

David Singleton III – UCLA

Per game tournament stats: 8.0 Points, 6.5 Rebounds, 0.5 Assists, 0.5 Steals, 0.0 Blocks, 50/31/0%

Standing 6-foot-5-inches, David Singleton is your prototypical modern three-and-D wing. Despite his shots not falling at PIT, he converted on 42.4% of his three-point attempts this past season at a good volume of 9.8 attempts per 100 possessions. In 164 appearances at UCLA over the past five seasons, Singleton started only one-fourth of games. However, UCLA had a better net rating in 4 of his 5 seasons with the Bruins. Singleton stood out as someone who thrived in his role, switching along the perimeter on defense, spacing the floor and keeping the ball moving on offense, and playing with a high level of intensity overall. While he not be on NBA radars year one, he certainly earned a spot in the G-League with his showcase at PIT.

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