We’ll have to wait and see if Arkansas turns into a prospect factory, but the Kentucky to NBA pipeline through Coach Cal is now officially over. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, both projected lottery picks, are the last to join this high-achieving group. But can they reach the illustrious heights of the names above? How do Sheppard and Dillingham stack up to their Kentucky counterparts? 

A Brief Introduction

I wrote about Reed Sheppard in December, and much of my analysis remains the same. Sheppard was shooting 57.1% from three back then, a number so incomprehensible that it seemed impossible for it to hold up. Yet somehow it did. Sheppard finished the season at 52.1% from three on 144 attempts, displaying the versatility to hit spot-ups, pull-ups, and fire from the parking lot. 

Physical tools and creation juice have been the main question-marks surrounding Sheppard. Is he capable of holding up on the defensive end? Does he have the handle and burst to get to his spots against NBA athletes? Still, Sheppard’s knack for being in the right place on both ends of the floor and other-worldly efficiency are enough for him to rank 3rd on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board. 

Rob Dillingham, who slots in at 11th on the Rookie Scale board, is one of the most electrifying offensive players in this class. Dillingham is an elite advantage creator who wins with his shifty handle, killer first step, and silky jumper. He averaged 15.2 points per game in just 23 minutes off the bench. Dillingham uses his gravity well to capitalize on passing windows and find open teammates out of drives and pick-and-rolls. 

As with Sheppard, physicals are amongst the oft-discussed concerns. Standing at 6’1” without shoes and 164 lbs., Dillingham will have to be truly special offensively to leave a positive imprint on the game at the next level. How will he finish amongst the trees against NBA rim protectors? And with his erratic defense, will he be singled out as a weak link?

Pitfalls and Takeaways From the Past

For the sake of this exercise, we will compare the 13 Kentucky guards drafted since 2011 to Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. (Note that this excludes John Wall and Eric Bledsoe from 2010 due to shooting data inconsistencies.)

2011: Brandon Knight*

2012: Marquis Teague

2013: Archie Goodwin

2015: Devin Booker*

2016: Jamal Murray*

2017: Malik Monk* and De’Aaron Fox*

2018: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander*

2019: Tyler Herro*

2020: Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey

2022: TyTy Washington Jr. 

2023: Cason Wallace*

*Indicates Lottery Pick

It’s impossible to evaluate the exact success rate of Coach Cal guards given how recently many of them were drafted. But whether they’re getting MVP votes, making All-Star teams, or simply sticking around as starting caliber backcourt pieces, the eye-ball hit rate here is remarkably high. I’d say that Marquis Teague and Archie Goodwin are the only ones who never really found their footing. Early returns from TyTy Washington have been worrisome, but it’s hard to fully count someone out before their third year in the NBA. Either way, all of Washington, Teague, and Goodwin barely snuck into the first round, each drafted with the 29th pick in their respective classes. Simply getting mocked consistently in the lottery bodes well for Sheppard and Dillingham. 

Aside from merely glancing at draft position, other indicators could help us weed out some lower-end outcomes. Let’s look at how each Kentucky guard got their shots up, specifically inside the arc. Here is every prospect organized by (lay-up attempts)/(off-the-dribble two and floater attempts).

Kentucky Guards by Lay-up to Long 2 Ratio: 

This might seem like an arbitrary statistic, but attempting a high number of long twos, along with a low number of rim attempts, could indicate athletic and creation deficiencies. If one can’t consistently create paint touches against college athletes, how will they do so in the NBA? But there’s also a flip side to this logic – getting clean looks at the rim is challenging against NBA length, so having an in-between game to lean on is vital. Notably, the lowest ratio belongs to TyTy Washington, who attempted just 0.38 layups for every floater or pull-up middy. Meanwhile, Archie Goodwin had the highest ratio at 1.72. Finding the balance is key. 

I think a main takeaway is that players should be phenomenal at the shots that they take. For example, let’s compare De’Aaron Fox and Marquis Teague. Both have similar rim-centric ratios at 1.44 and 1.42. However, Fox shot 5% higher on lay-ups, had 13 more dunks, and a 13.4% higher Free Throw rate. If you’re taking a lot of shots at the rim, be an awesome finisher. The signs were also there for in-between development for Fox, who shot 43.6% (24/55) on runners versus Teague’s 17.0% (8/47).  

As far as projecting All-Star outcomes, this metric seems to favor slightly more rim-centric prospects. Those with a lower number of layup attempts to long twos have settled into strong starter/6th-man-ish spark plug roles, such as Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro, and Malik Monk. Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Tyrese Maxey weren’t necessarily paint-touch machines in college, but all have higher layup ratios than the aforementioned group. 

How do Sheppard and Dillingham Stack Up?

Reed Sheppard’s Shooting

Shooting is the obvious selling point for Sheppard, whose unreal splits pop off the screen next to any prospect in recent memory. Even when compared to our pool that contains plenty of high-versatility and high-volume snipers, Sheppard’s numbers stand out. 

Sheppard shot 52.8% on pull-up twos, 6.6% higher than 2nd place Tyler Herro. It’s worth noting that the PU2 isn’t necessarily Sheppard’s preferred shot, as he gets a significantly higher share of his looks from beyond the arc. As a matter of fact, only Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley attempted less off-the-dribble mid-range jumpers/40. Even on low volume, Sheppard has displayed a simple but effective mid-range bag, capable of stopping and popping and flowing into pull-ups with ease. Even when off-balance, Sheppard has the touch and body control to finish tough looks. 

Pull-up threes are an area where we can see some evolution in Coach Cal’s system. Many were discouraged from taking said shots, most notably Tyrese Maxey and Devin Booker. Both of the Kentucky guards this year rank top three in pull-up three attempts/40. Again, Sheppard’s efficiency is bananas. Immanuel Quickley and Marquis Teague made higher percentage but on a minuscule number of attempts. Amongst players to take over one pull-up three per 40, Sheppard ranks first by a whopping 12.6%. He’s comfortable getting to his three out of pick-and-rolls and isolations and has the confidence to pull it from way beyond the line. 

And then there’s catch-and-shoot threes, where Sheppard got up a respectable 4.57 attempts/40. That per 40 volume is a good bit behind guys like Jamal Murray (7.32 attempts), Devin Booker (6.76), and Malik Monk (5.98), but still higher than Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey (4.28 and 3.33). Sheppard is the group’s most efficient at a blistering 51.4%. The defining features of his catch-and-shoot profile are his range and shot-prep. Sheppard wasn’t tasked with sprinting around screens at Kentucky, but he’s an apt off-ball mover and after-pass re-locator, allowing him to excel on semi-movement looks. 

For those of you keeping track, Sheppard is the most efficient Kentucky jump-shooting prospect on catch-and-shoot threes, pull-up threes, and pull-up twos. He shot a higher percentage all over the floor than Book, Jamal, whoever. Choose your fighter, Reed shot higher. Remember when I said that players should take shots that they are good at making? As far as jumpers go, Sheppard made everything he took. 

Rob Dillingham’s Volume

It’s gone underrated how large a load Rob Dillingham carried offensively. Yes, Dillingham came off the bench and played fewer total minutes than any other player on this list. But when he was in the game, he ran the show. He leads our sample in usage rate, assist rate, and off-the-dribble jumper attempts/40. 

Recall how I mentioned that Reed and Dillingham each ranked top three in pull-up threes/40? Well, it turns out that Dillingham is actually the top dawg by a lot, averaging 3.11 attempts. He ranks 2nd in lay-up attempts/40 with 6.01, well below De’Aaron Fox at 7.52, but above Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 5.26. 

Dillingham is unlikely to develop into an SGA-level slasher, a player whose height and length give him a massive boost. Further, Dillingham did notably more damage scoring in transition than Shai, whose bread and butter has always been generating half-court rim touches. However, all of this does speak to the level of creator that Dillingham has the potential to be – someone who can threaten the opposition with his pull-up while getting into the paint and putting defenses in rotation. Even without the finishing tools of an SGA, he still creates lay-down windows with his downhill playstyle. 

Dillingham certainly has his physical limitations, as the lightest, shortest, and least lengthy player in our sample. But he boasts some elite creation tools, mainly his handle and stop-and-start abilities. His change of direction while moving downhill is phenomenal. At his ceiling, Dillingham can become an elite off-ball scorer. His herky-jerky style of play will lend itself well to actions away from the ball. Dillingham is tough to stop when running off screens and getting into his jumper or attacking the rim off the catch. He’s incredibly decisive versus already off-balance defenders, and his side-step is a dangerous counter to hard closeouts. On catch-and-shoot threes, Dillingham’s 47.7 FG% trails only Reed Sheppard. 

I’m also high on his ability to initiate offense in transition, using his raw speed to blow by defenders running back and stopping and self-organizing for quick pull-up threes. 

Stocks, Stocks, Stocks

4.6% steal rate. 2.5% block rate. Sheppard is an all-time great events creator for a guard. Cason Wallace, already a plus-impact defender as a rookie, is the closest thing we have with a 3.7% steal rate and a 1.6% block rate. There are real questions about Sheppard’s foot speed on the ball and he lacks the size to guard up for stretches, but man, he might have some of the best hands and feel I’ve ever evaluated. Routine passes around the perimeter turn into turnovers when Sheppard is on the floor. He’s more menacing than you’d expect at the point of attack, constantly stripping opponents. Even on plays where he’s seemingly out of an action, Sheppard covers the ground and can get his fingertips on a ball. 

Given that none of our Kentucky guys can match his stock numbers, let’s at least compare him to all First Round Picks since 2008 with 4+ steal rates and 2+ block rates (via barttorvik):

There are a few players who you might expect to see: Marcus Smart, Thybulle, and Tari Eason. But I think it’s interesting that guys like Harden and CJ McCollum hit these thresholds – two remarkably skilled, crafty, and intelligent scorers – but not players lauded for their defensive aptitude. Perhaps high stock numbers could be indicative of feel, which would also translate to the other end of the floor. This bodes well for Sheppard, who, despite his Smart-esque defensive events creation, is still an offense-presenting prospect.  

With Dillingham, I have genuine concerns about his defensive fit against NBA athletes. His 2.4% steal rate is the 6th highest amongst our Kentucky pool, and while he has some nice moments of peskiness, Dillingham is a chronic gambler whose risky decisions don’t always pay off. He fouls a lot – there isn’t much reason for a one-position defending guard to average 4.5 fouls/40. Without the elite feel of a guy like Sheppard, Dillingham’s defensive ceiling and floor are both low. 

Rob Dillingham’s Efficiency

Knowing that Dillingham is the group’s leader in usage, takes a lot of wild shots, and suffers the physical deficiencies I discussed earlier, where would you expect him to rank in True Shooting? 

If you somehow guessed third, you’d be correct. Reed Sheppard is number one at 69.9%. Another sentence, another ridiculous Sheppard outlier stat. But Dillingham slots in below only Devin Booker. TS% isn’t everything, but it does clearly matter. TyTy, Goodwin, and Teague are the three least efficient of the sample. Dillingham’s splits aren’t in Sheppard territory, but they are still the marks of an elite shooter. 

Dillingham’s Shooting Splits:

• 40.7 Off the Dribble 2P%
• 37.9 Off the Dribble 3P%
• 47.7 Catch and Shoot 3P%
• 52.8 Runner FG%
• 50.9 Lay-up FG%

The only really concerning area of the floor is the rim. Dillingham’s highs are high, contorting his body, absorbing contact, and somehow getting difficult looks to fall. But physical limitations make it impossible for him to finish at a high clip. Plagued by his lack of strength, Dillingham struggles to get clean looks consistently in a crowd, taking off early and trying to twist his way to finishes. His style would lend itself better to someone with more length, as he frequently scoops for extension lay-ups and forces his way into windows that his arms are simply too short to capitalize upon. This can improve as he gets stronger, but how much weight can he realistically add? I don’t expect him to ever be a real free-throw rate tank despite his high rim volume. What’s promising is that Dillingham already has a relatively reliable in-between jumper and boasts feathery touch on his floater, which should help him compensate.

Sheppard the Creator

This is where things get interesting for Sheppard. Everything I’ve said up to this point may have you believing that Reed Sheppard is a can’t miss superstar. But I do question exactly what level of perimeter initiator he will be. 

In lay-up attempts/40, Sheppard ranks 2nd to last with 2.39. He’s ahead of only Immanuel Quickley, whose allergy to lay-ups has been well-documented. Sheppard has the standstill burst to get by the first line of defense, but I worry about his inability to punish defenses with his proceeding steps. He is not someone who carves out space on his way to the paint with big stride lengths or change-of-direction moves. Lacking in top-end length, vertical explosion, and finishing craft, Sheppard has moments where he gets engulfed in the paint. Further, his turnover rate is the third highest of the group, trailing only Teague and Goodwin. He can struggle to navigate tight areas and needs to be better about feeling out gap help and maintaining ball control versus digs. 

While Sheppard’s low per-40 rim volume is concerning, his 1.12 lay-up-to-long two ratio signifies that he still prefers getting to the rim over settling in the mid-range. This mark is higher than Maxey, Booker, and Murray. Sheppard is at his best starting his drives from further back behind the 3-point line, using the space defenders give him as a runway to build up speed. His touch around the rim stands out, finishing at a 57.9% clip on lay-ups, and while his craft could improve, there are noteworthy flashes of in-air adjustments. 

Sheppard’s passing pops as well. Despite ranking last in usage rate, Sheppard is 6th in assist rate. He has real versatility as a live-dribble passer in both the half-court and transition, capable of making inside-out passes with either hand, throwing accurate lobs, and finding teammates for hit aheads. His vision and delivery on kick-outs are uber-impressive, somehow finding open teammates on the perimeter out of a crowd. 

Parting Thoughts

Kentucky guards tend to work out. It feels wrong to say a prospect will excel at the pro level merely because of the college they chose to attend, but between the history of UK success, the film, and their overall stat profiles, I feel confident in both Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard finding their places in the NBA.  

Dillingham has the chance to be a fantastic offensive piece, a guy who can legitimately create for himself and others, while running around screens and carving up defenses as an off-ball scorer. Despite the defensive concerns, his offense is likely worth a top 5 or 6 gamble, especially in a class supposedly devoid of high-ceiling prospects. 

Even amongst our pool which includes multiple NBA megastars, Sheppard is a massive outlier. Nobody has shot like him from all areas of the floor. Nobody has created so many defensive events. This is what upside looks like – outlier skills and youth. Even if Sheppard isn’t a high-flying athlete, his two-way feel for the game is a clear indicator of future growth. 

There are many positive outcomes here – a player who can facilitate an offense, play off other stars, and scale his usage up or down depending on who he shares the floor with. And given how unique an advantage he has in so many statistical categories, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of an unexpected usage spike in the NBA, in the vein of Tyrese Maxey or Devin Booker. Especially if Sheppard hits a high-end shooting outcome, the extent of the strength and handle improvements he’ll need to undergo will be far less. There is a case to be made that Sheppard is the best prospect in the entire 2024 draft, not just for his perceived safety in a class lacking an obvious #1, but for his upside. 

The post Are Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham the Last Great Kentucky Guards? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Following this line of thought, I decided to gauge the roster complexion of the league’s contenders, defining ‘contenders’ as any playoff participant. Amongst the 16 playoff qualifiers this past season, the average draft capital spent on the top 7 players in their rotation was the 20th pick. However, each team had an average of roughly 3.5 lottery picks in their rotation. Considering about half of each team’s rotation was composed of lottery picks, this discrepancy demanded further investigation. Further examination of roster make-ups would show 14/16 playoff teams featured a second round pick in their rotation and 7/16 had a former UDFA (Undrafted Free Agent) receiving significant playing time.

‘Winning at the margins’ is a commonly understood pillar, and borderline platitude, of teambuilding; lottery picks on 2nd and 3rd contracts, which are undoubtedly present on these rosters, present such a burden to teams’ salary-caps they are forced to roster and play inexpensive players. While cap conservation is certainly a major factor in constructing these teams, it is only a partial explanation. There are teams with untenable salary-cap figures, littered with the extensions of former lottery picks, who weren’t able to make the playoffs. As for the players who weren’t heavily invested into with draft capital, we can infer they were also available to these non-playoff teams. And if these players were available, are currently able to contribute to a playoff team, what prevented these lesser teams from acquiring them?

This may seem like a circuitous line of thinking, but I believe the issues facing these moribund teams to be interconnected. Not only were they unable to identify lottery picks worth defining the context of their roster, they were unable to acquire talent on the periphery who could easily acclimate, and produce, in their specific context. Reed Sheppard and Jonathan Mogbo are two prospects who on the surface have little in common, but in both of them I see unique solutions to the previously described predicament. While Mogbo and Sheppard find themselves on opposite ends of the draft spectrum, with Sheppard being projected to be taken within the top 5 picks and Mogbo a consensus second rounder, I believe they’re both undervalued compared to their respective positions. Both players possess portable skillsets, easily transferrable into any setting and this, in my estimation, supersedes the need to meet any archetypal qualifications.

Reed Sheppard

In many ways Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard has become an avatar for the public perception of the 2024 draft class. Standing at 6’1.75 (without shoes) with a +6’3.25 wingspan, Sheppard’s substandard positional size (per DraftExpress, average point guard measurements are 6’2.25 and a 6’6.75 wingspan), and modest scoring output (averaged 12.5 points per game) are a far cry from typical expectations of a projected top-5 pick. Even Sheppard’s jaw dropping efficiency from this past season has been met with skepticism in the public draft-sphere, with many questioning the feasibility of drastically increasing his shooting volume. Along with only shooting a hair over 8 threes per-hundred-possessions, scattered throughout his tape are instances of Sheppard stymying advantages with his reluctance to score, as seen in the compilation below.

Even the methods by which Sheppard goes about playmaking have been met with scrutiny. So often the hallmarks of a high level guard prospect are a player who consistently creates decisive advantages, and can utilize an array of passing deliveries to capitalize on them. Sheppard decidedly doesn’t abide by this convention, and in fact, rarely throws passes off a live dribble. Sheppard’s rote style of playmaking, shown below, has understandably sparked criticism of whether Sheppard will be able to fit passes into NBA windows.

And this is to say nothing of whether Sheppard will be able to reliably create advantages in the first place. At the moment Sheppard is without an especially advanced handle, routinely struggling going to his left hand and contending with gap help on drives.

So with all these uncertainties calling into question Sheppard’s legitimacy as a top 5 pick, what reason is there to believe he’s actually UNDER-rated as a prospect?

Contextualizing Production

Being fully transparent, many of the previously mentioned concerns were my own. Advantage creation and positional size are two heavily considered factors in the guard evaluation rubric, and Sheppard’s failure to meet this criteria made it easy to dismiss his case for a top-5 pick as a byproduct of an especially weak draft class. However, as Sheppard’s lone collegiate season progressed and the production didn’t waver I was forced to reassess my stance. Reconciling my beliefs of what a top-flight guard SHOULD play like with the tendencies Sheppard continued to display on tape proved difficult, so in search of clarity, I took a look at the numbers.

In order to establish a frame of reference for Sheppard’s statistical profile, I compiled stats I believed were pertinent to a guard’s pre-draft profile. The sample consisted of 41 guards listed 6’3 or smaller who were either: first round picks, or played 18 minutes/game, only guards without Barttorvik.com profiles being omitted from the sample (sorry Mike Conley). The categories tracked consisted of: PNR (Pick-and-Rolls) run per-game, PNR/game (including passes), Half-court rim attempts/game, Drives/game, Free Throw rate, Steal rate, Block rate, and Off-the-dribble 3’s attempted/game. In virtually every category Sheppard’s positioning was polarized, revealing some interesting trends.

For example, take the scatter plot below comparing PNR scoring rate (share of a player’s PNR reps that ends in a shot attempt by the ballhandler) and total PNR reps received by a player per-game.

As PNRs/game increase the less scoring oriented these reps become. This is to be expected, generally players receiving a high volume of PNRs are thought to be a team’s primary facilitator. In spite of this, here we find what is the first of a series of trends bucked by Reed Sheppard. Sheppard had the 4th lowest PNR scoring rate of the entire sample, and was comfortably lower than anyone who’d seen similar PNR volume to him. The average scoring rate amongst players who’d averaged 8 PNR/game or less was 53%. Sheppard, who’d averaged 6.1 PNR/game, had a scoring rate of 39%. Sheppard found himself in the company of Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton once again when I’d ranked these 41 guards by Drives and Half-court Rim attempts per game.

Again these are two stats where the correlation seems obvious on its face: the more a player drives to the basket, the more rim attempts they should have. But what commonalities are there in players who do both sparingly? For the 7 players who reside near the bottom of both rankings above, size seems like an obvious culprit. But this explanation didn’t hold up to scrutiny, especially after seeing the players ordered by free throw rate.

Along with Sheppard, Haliburton, and Nembhard, Cason Wallace and TJ McConnell were the only players to fall in the bottom 13 in all 3 categories. And with Sheppard and the Pacers trio being in the bottom 10 of each stat, prompting the question of what’s behind the similarity in these player’s statistical profile? I believe the answer in this case is what I can best describe as ‘Advantage Perception‘.

Typically when advantage creation is discussed what comes to mind are clips like the following, where Ja Morant collapses the defense after rejecting the ballscreen and makes the kickout to Desmond Bane for a wide open 3.

Where advantage perception diverges from advantage creation is the skill doesn’t necessarily require the player to spend much time on-ball, and is as much about navigating offensive pitfalls as it is manufacturing something out of nothing. It is in this area where Reed Sheppard excels, evident in his stellar 2.25 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, but also in his tape. Sheppard was persistent in keeping defenses on their backfoot with pinpoint outlet passes which sparked transition opportunities.

This kind of subtle playmaking is a staple of all 3 previously mentioned Pacers guards, and one of the defining features of an offense which ranked 2nd in the NBA in both pace and offensive rating over the regular season. All 3 of these Pacers guards embody the basketball adage of ‘the ball moves faster passing than dribbling’, and create many easy opportunities with simple hit-ahead passes like the play below.

Sheppard’s effect on the Kentucky offense’s pace is apparent going by the numbers as well. Per Hoop-Explorer, with Sheppard on the court Kentucky ranked in the 99th and 98th percentile in transition frequency and efficiency. In non-Sheppard minutes they still played in transition a healthy amount ranking in the 96th percentile, however their efficiency plummeted into the 17th percentile, an astronomical fall.

This ability to perceive advantages extends to Sheppard’s ability off-ball as well, Sheppard’s adept in relocating off-ball and is well suited to complimenting other creators. The clip below is emblematic of Sheppard’s knack for maximizing his role off-ball. DJ Wagner runs a spread PNR where Sheppard lifts from the corner to remove the tagger, a basic enough task for an off-guard. However, Sheppard recognizes the defense loading up the paint and sinks into the corner, into Wagner’s line of vision, where he attacks the closeout and draws a foul on the shot attempt.

Ultimately all these are microskills, which in a way reaffirms the notion of Sheppard having a high floor but not the high-end creator outcomes associated with a top 5 pick. With low PNR volume, minimal downhill presence, and what seems to be a risk-averse offensive approach, what separates Sheppard from the ‘game-manager’ guards like TJ McConnell (and to a lesser degree Andrew Nembhard)? What avenues are there for creation?

Contextualizing Production: The Kentucky Factor

Similarly to how I’d noticed a trend in the names Sheppard was grouped with when it came to rim pressure stats, over time I’d come to realize near the bottom of both off-the-dribble 3’s and PNR/game was a strong Kentucky contingent. Of the 8 Kentucky guards in the sample 6 were in the bottom 10 of OTD 3’s taken per game and none were in the top half, with Rob Dillingham placing the highest at 21st.

And for PNR/game, 5 Kentucky guards were in the bottom 13, with De’Aaron Fox pacing the group in 17th place out of 41.

Kentucky players being amongst the lowest in PNR reps makes a good deal of sense with how prolific a recruiter John Calipari was during his tenure as Head Coach. With a glut of ballhandling talent, naturally their offense would take a more egalitarian approach. But the absence of any Kentucky players near the top of the OTD 3-point shooting list warranted further investigation, especially considering how integral this shot became to many of these players at the next level.

What I found as I looked into Kentucky’s shot diet over the Calipari years was these kind of shots seem to be explicitly discouraged within the Kentucky offense. Over the past 15 years, per Synergy, Kentucky was in the 42nd percentile of off-the-dribble shots, and this figure is including off the dribble 2’s! And this past season Kentucky was in the 37th percentile of OTD shots taken, despite being in the 93rd percentile in efficiency, and 177th in the country in 3-point rate. The implications this has on Reed Sheppard’s projection cannot be understated, because it’s these shots where Sheppard’s avenue for creation lie.

The reason I’m more confident in Sheppard’s shooting development, even compared to past Kentucky prospects, is the growth in confidence and comfort in these shots he demonstrated over the course of the season. Compare the two PNR frames below, the first from an early season game versus Saint Joseph’s and the latter from a late season conference game at Mississippi State.

Take note of the level of the ballscreen, with Tre Mitchell setting the screen with a foot inside the arc. Versus the frame below where the screener, Ugonna Onyenso, is a few feet outside of the paint.

As the season progressed and Sheppard saw more usage as a PNR ballhandler, Kentucky adjusted their scheme accordingly to fully weaponize Sheppard’s shooting ability. Sheppard acclimated to the uptick in volume well, with each passing month of the season the percentage of Sheppard’s 3s taken inside the first 20 seconds of the shot-clock increased. And this progression was apparent on tape.

Look at the following plays, both instances of Kentucky running ‘Horns’ with Sheppard as the ballhandler. In the initial clip Kentucky is playing an early season game vs Texas A&M Commerce, Sheppard’s defender goes under the ballscreen while the big, who is in a shallow drop coverage, helps. Even with the cushion Sheppard turns down the shot and swings the ball to Justin Edwards. In the clip immediately after this though, UNC Wilmington late switches the Horns action and Sheppard reactively takes the 3.

As Sheppard’s shooting reputation grew in conference play he saw more aggressive coverages and this created closeouts which lead to clearer driving lanes for his teammates.

Sheppard gradually expanded his versatility shooting off the dribble as well. In the comparison clip below, versus Florida Kentucky runs 77 (a double ball screen action), with the x4 (Tre Mitchell’s defender) switching onto Sheppard. You can see Sheppard briefly attempt to get into a stepback 3 before abandoning the idea and swinging the ball. Compare this with the following play where Sheppard does a much better job setting up and selling the drive before hitting the stepback 3.

Projecting this shooting versatility with the improvements Sheppard made as a PNR operator, as he improved his pace and timing making reads out of the core actions Kentucky ran for him.

This development can be seen comparing the two clips above. The first clip from early in the season Kentucky is running 77, Sheppard rejects the first screen, sees the low man cheating over from Antonio Reeves in the corner, but the gap help forces him to make the skip pass early and slightly off target. The lack of patience here causes the pass to be slightly off target and shrinks the window for Reeves to get the 3 off unencumbered.

Versus the 2nd clip, Sheppard is running a spread PNR, but waits for the big Zvonimir Ivisic to twist the screen to create more separation from the POA defender. This simple decision allows Sheppard to place slightly more pressure on the defense (drop coverage), Justin Edwards lifts to the wing in reaction to his defender tagging the roller, and Sheppard finds him with a better timed and more accurate left-handed skip pass.

Sheppard’s reliable decision making and OTD shooting over time can unlock his potential as a driver. As fraught as comparisons can be, I believe Sheppard’s progression could be similar to a player he’d previously linked with in this article, Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton, similarly to Sheppard, was not treated as a potent OTD 3-point shooter upon arriving in the league. Take the frame below for example rookie Haliburton is running the PNR vs the Nuggets and look at the level of the ballscreen and the depth of Nikola Jokic’s drop…

…compared to the screen being set and the respective coverage Haliburton saw in this past playoffs.

The additional spacing in concert with this shooting gravity can unlock Sheppard’s driving potential in a similar way to Haliburton as well. Indiana frequently utilized Haliburton in these ‘Stack’ actions, especially when another dynamic shooter in Buddy Hield was on the roster. The force multiplier shooters of Hield and Haliburton’s caliber expands creases for ballhandlers to penetrate and create.

Along with actions like ‘Stack’ maximizing Sheppard’s shooting talent, there are actions to accommodate for Sheppard’s lack of an advanced handle. Many teams use ‘Get’ actions in early offense to lower the burden on ballhandlers by allowing them to initiate against a shifting defense versus a set defense. Comparing the following two plays is instructive because not only does it place Sheppard next to a player he’d been previously grouped with in TJ McConnell, you can the limitations of the latter compared to Sheppard.

In both clips ‘Strong Motion Get’ is ran, however when McConnell receives the pitchback his defender, Dennis Schroeder, is well inside the arc rendering Indiana incapable of creating an advantage. McConnell’s limited shooting range will often see teams shift into a zone defense to counter his rim pressure. However comparing this to second clip of Sheppard running the same action, the POA defender not only has to go over the screen, Mississippi State’s big has to hedge-and-recover to deny Sheppard a shooting window. This, along with Kentucky preventing nail help by stationing a respected shooter in Antonio Reeves at the wing, provides Sheppard a crease to drive and create separation for a snatch-dribble jumper.

This is of course not to say Sheppard will mirror Haliburton or McConnell’s developmental trajectory completely. However I do think its valuable to reference how both players, undeniably undervalued as prospects, improved upon their strengths and had their weaknesses accounted for.

Sheppard’s defensive projection isn’t nearly as clear, but similar to previous statistical comparisons to his peers his profile is unique.

Sheppard, of the 41 guards who’s steal and block rates were logged, had the highest steal rate and second highest block rate. Candidly though I believe these numbers slightly misrepresent Sheppard’s defensive impact this past season. Possession by possession Sheppard revealed many defensive flaws, as his suboptimal size and length gave him extremely thin margins navigating screens, and he was inconsistent at the point of attack and off-ball. Despite all these deficiencies, Kentucky’s defense was 11.4 points worse with Sheppard off the floor. This speaks to the value of creating, and consistently capitalizing, on turnovers. Sheppard’s size will more than likely keep him from being among the elite perimeter defenders in the league. Even if he’s hidden on non-shooters, the propensity for defensive playmaking should allow him to tread water on this end compared to other offensively slanted small guards in the league.

Jonathan Mogbo

While I believe the misevaluation of Reed Sheppard lies in what KIND of perimeter creator he is, viewing 6’7 combo-big Jonathan Mogbo through the lens of conventional big-man archetypes is responsible for repressing his draft stock. Just as I’d done with Sheppard, I’d wanted to establish a statistical frame of reference for Mogbo by compiling and comparing him to his peers. Instead of using a strict size threshold I used a looser set of parameters on size and selected players based on role, looking for players who had played both the 4 and 5 positions. This group consisted of 45 players and the categories taken were Offensive and Defensive Rebounding%, Assist%, Turnover Rate%, Block%, Steal%, Dunks/game, Halfcourt layups/game, and Halfcourt layup shooting efficiency, all from the player’s pre-NBA season.

Across the board Mogbo was an outlier. The chart below is the Offensive and Defensive Rebounding% of each of the player combined into one bar. Contradicting expectations given Mogbo’s size, he actually tops this group of bigs when these categories are aggregated.

The exceptionalism of Mogbo’s paint production isn’t limited to just crashing the glass, though, as portrayed by the scatter plot below which depicts Halfcourt layups + dunks on the X-axis and the conversion rate on Halfcourt layups on the Y-axis (as a proxy for touch around the basket).

Zach Edey may seem to be a confusing addition, considering the remaining players distinguished are more aligned with Mogbo’s presumed role in the league as an undersized combo-big, but the choice was intentional as to put into perspective the interior presence Mogbo has been. The only players who accumulated more HC layups and dunks/game AND were more efficient on HC layups than Mogbo were Edey, Jock Landale, and Marvin Bagley. Below is a comparison between a stylistic stat (Free Throw Rate) and efficiency stats (3-point shooting and Adjusted Offensive Rating) of the 4 players’ respective teams.

Numbers represent team ranks.

Mogbo’s San Francisco team lands at the bottom of all of these stats, which aligns with the observations I’ve made of San Francisco’s perimeter players being incapable of reliably creating space or advantages for easy opportunities. With Mogbo off the court San Francisco took 6% less shots at the rim, a precipitous drop off, and despite taking less shots at the rim they were drastically LESS efficient as well. In non-Mogbo minutes San Francisco went from 80th percentile efficiency in High-Low efficiency (PPP) to the 51st percentile, and from the 60th percentile in Post-up efficiency to the 40th percentile.

So what relevance does this have to the article’s premise? Why does Mogbo being particularly effective near the basket differentiate his outlook from other undersized bigs? What separates Mogbo from previous undersized big men is the convergence of his interior presence and passing ability. Mogbo ranked 2nd out of the sample of bigs in Assist%, and had the most dunks/game of any big above a 15% assist rate.

While Mogbo won’t be deployed often as an on-ball creator, an exceptional Assist% compared to his peers represents a level of feel which enables him to capitalize on cleaner looks provided by improved spacing and advantage creators. Simple avenues for scoring present themselves like the clip below, where the Memphis Grizzlies run Horns Flare and Brandon Clarke recognizes the opportunity to cut baseline as his defender aggressively helps off him in the strong side corner.

Another crucial factor to take note of in the previous clip is the personnel. Notice Clarke gets this open dunk with Xavier Tillman on the floor, another non-spacing frontcourt player.

This leads into my next major point with Jonathan Mogbo and his overstated difficulty of fitting into lineups. The confluence of off-ball awareness, ballhandling ability, and dynamic athleticism makes Mogbo a prime example of how often the relationship between spacing and modern frontcourt players is misunderstood.

In traditional 2-3 and 5-out alignments, frontcourt players, no matter their ability to shoot from distance, are placed in the corner. This frequently gives opposing teams the upper-hand in game-planning, allowing them to either hide their weakest defensive player on this negative-spacer. Teams may also place their primary rim protector on this player to keep them stationed close to the basket, like in the clip below where Rudy Gobert is assigned to ‘guard’ Peyton Watson in the corner. Gobert is allowed to rotate hard to protect the basket with minimal concern of Watson’s shooting hurting the Timberwolves, and in fact a Watson 3 is considered an ideal outcome for the possession.

Even when the shooter is more respected than Watson in a 5-out alignment, the ‘automatics’ (schemed defensive rotations), allow teams to have their cake and eat it too. Teams can not only help off these average frontcourt shooters; if they are forced to over-help it is with the understanding that their teammate will help and allow them to recover.

The following play is a perfect example of this playing out. After some strained early offense, the Magic flow into an inverted empty corner pick-and-pop between Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, which isn’t successful unto itself but does coincide with a miscommunicated switch between Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. This break in communication starts a domino effect, forcing Evan Mobley to quickly help on the open man in the corner, opening a crease for Banchero to drive as the ball is swung to him.

HOWEVER, Banchero gets downhill Jarret Allen helps off his man, Wendell Carter Jr., in the weakside corner. This sequence of events triggers an easy kickout to Carter Jr. in the corner, but this is what the defense wants! Simultaneously to Carter receiving the pass, the Cavaliers execute their weakside ‘sink-and-fill’ rotation, with Mitchell sinking into the corner, Garland rotates one pass over to Mitchell’s vacated man, and the Cavaliers defensive shell is able to resume its shape as the remaining players rotate behind Garland. This results in a late shot-clock contested 3.

These automatics play out countless times every game, with mediocre spacers serving as a release valve for opposing defenses. Below is another example of a common weakside defensive rotation taking place but against an offense situated into a 2-3 alignment. In this play the Houston Rockets are switching, and when Frev VanVleet is switched onto Rudy Gobert, Jabari Smith provides early help on Gobert under the basket, leaving Naz Reid open in the corner. This prompts a cross-court skip pass, triggering a perfect ‘X-out’ rotation, with Jalen Green and Smith exchanging assignments on the weakside.

Over the course of the NBA season teams developed a unique offensive wrinkle to throw a wrench into these defensive automatics. The term for this schematic wrinkle is called a ‘4.5-out alignment’ has been documented, discussed and coined by the great Bowser2Bowser (@bowser2bowser on X/Twitter). 4.5 spacing is an alignment uniquely suited to Jonathan Mogbo’s skill, but first I want to layout the basics of this alignment. 5-out spacing, pictured below, has 2 players in the slot, 2 in the corners, and one player at the top of the key.

4.5 out spacing simply takes one of the frontcourt players, typically a non-spacer, and places them into the short corner area (in between the 3-point line and the lane line). The following frame is of the Atlanta Hawks in a 4.5 out alignment with Onyeka Okongwu as the lone big placed in the ‘.5’ role.

4.5 out, and its value can be seen below, in a clip taken from the same Magic-Cavaliers playoff game as the previous clip. Once again the Magic begin in a 5-out alignment until Wendell Carter Jr. relocates to the dunker-spot as Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner run an empty corner PNR. With the Magic finding no success in the initial action, Franz drives and manages to connect with Wendell Carter on a lob.

Now the last few seconds of this play are where the edge is gained from the Magic utilizing 4.5 out spacing on this play. Notice Donovan Mitchell instinctively going to sink into the corner to help on what he assumes will be Wendell Carter Jr parked in the corner. This is a long time defensive axiom being broken in real time!

Jonathan Mogbo’s previously mentioned excellence as a finisher makes him a great fit for this role, with the vertical spacing component being crucial to a non-spacing big’s fit into a 4.5 out role. On top of Mogbo’s quick leaping ability, his ability as a passer unlocks another dimension in 4.5 out alignments. At San Francisco, Mogbo had primarily been used as a short roll passer or the trigger man in High-Low actions.

But I believe Mogbo’s ability to not only pass, but pass off a live dribble…

…lends itself extremely well to expanding this role past simply catching lobs. Similarly to how Amen Thompson has been effective as a 4.5 out ‘big’, being able to connect plays and make a variety of passing reads enables him to play with other bigs.

The following play for instance, Houston runs a RAM (an off-ball screen set for a player before they set a ballscreen) PNR with Jock Landale as the screen setter/roller and Thompson sets an exit screen for Fred Vanvleet before settling into his role as the 4.5 out big. The passing window to Landale’s roll to the basket is well covered so Jalen Green makes the pass to Thompson in the short corner. The paint presence of Landale forces the weakside defender, Gordon Hayward, to crash down as Thompson makes the interior pass.

Thompson cleans up Landale’s miss, but you can see the attention the concentration of size between Thompson and Landale demands. And how 4.5 out lineups can be a counter to teams like Oklahoma City who are comfortable playing smaller. Not only is the interior feed a viable decision for Thompson, because of how hard Hayward is forced to rotate to help, the skip pass to his vacated assignment (Dillon Brooks) is also an option for Thompson.

Paired with an explosive off-the-dribble scoring threat Mogbo’s passing skills can be blended into lineups with another big as well. Like here, where the Mavericks run a spread PNR after their initial double-drag action is snuffed out. Kyrie Irving draws two defenders to the ball opening up the opportunity for PJ Washington to throw a lob on the short roll. Naz Reid uses his excellent recovery skills to break up the pass, but this play puts into perspective how well suited Mogbo is for these asymmetrical alignments. Not only is he fully capable of throwing the lob in the short roll, he can play the Daniel Gafford role as the vertical spacer in the short corner.

Another non-traditional alignment that’s risen in popularity around the league and has bearing on Mogbo’s pro projection is the ‘5-Slot’ alignment. Like 4.5-out alignments, 5-slot helps mitigate the spacing concerns of non-shooting big men while appropriately utilizing the gravity of the big’s paint finishing. As the alignment’s title dictates, the center is simply placed in the slot. With this placement not only does the 5 pull the x5 (player defending the center) away from the basket, it places the center in a position to utilize their ballskills to be a downhill creator. Like in the play below, where Clint Capela gets the ball in a 5-slot alignment and calls his own number on a DHO keeper to get the driving dunk.

Not only does Mogbo possess the handling skills to apply pressure on the rim from these sorts of alignments, he can use his aforementioned passing vision to find teammates when collapses the defense on these drives.

Moments where Mogbo found himself in these asymmetrical alignments were few and far between though, and the typical formatting for San Francisco’s offense found Mogbo playing out of a Horns alignment with conventional Princeton offense principles. The nature of the San Francisco offense made it especially easy for opposing defenses to load up the paint, clog rim running lanes and load up on post-up possessions.

Possessions like the clip above were mainstays in San Francisco’s tape with big’s positioning allowing opponents to place all 5 defenders inside the arc. Even with San Francisco having perimeter players who shot well from 3 this past season, shot versatility from these players was severely lacking, and this greatly simplified closeouts for opposing defenders.

Defensively, Mogbo is uniquely equipped to serve as a switch big when he’s deployed as an undersized center, due to his gargantuan wingspan. In spite of Mogbo standing around 6’8 in shoes, his standing reach of 9’0.5 is only an inch shorter than Jarrett Allen, half an inch shorter than Naz Reid and Wendell Carter Jr., and actually half an inch LONGER than Bam Adebayo. While I don’t see Mogbo’s rim protection being sustainable for long stretches, as it pertains to lineup flexibility his lateral movement enables him to stick with smaller players on the perimeter and impact shots with his length.

Here Mogbo switches onto the ballhandler in the first ballscreen, scram (off-ball) switches back onto his initial assignment when the ball is swung, and switches onto the eventual shooter to contest the shot. Mogbo had one of the lowest block rates of the group of bigs I’d catalogued from earlier, but also had the highest steal rate amongst the group. This speaks to his activity off-ball, where he uses his length to get into passing lanes and force deflections.

Conclusion

Associating Jonathan Mogbo and Reed Sheppard probably seems like a bizarre decision but they are both representative of what has been my greatest shift in philosophy over the course of the cycle. After starting out with a tepid assessment of both prospects, I realized many of my concerns were rooted in archetypal bias. So much of my evaluation of Mogbo and Sheppard was spent trying to explain away production, solely due to their NBA role being murkier than most players in their position. When in reality these player’s were extremely productive DESPITE their respective college programs not catering to their distinct skillsets. Evaluating these two forced me to internalize that uniquely productive players will find unique ways to contribute. In the case of Mogbo and Sheppard, their specific avenues to NBA production: Mogbo as a Swiss Army knife big-man, and Sheppard as an off-the-dribble shooter and rapid-fire decision maker, are additive to virtually any lineup configuration. These attributes fulfill the core tenet of my teambuilding philosophy, the most valuable players are consistent performers who don’t require significant personnel accommodations to realize their potential. This rationale places Reed Sheppard atop my board as the #1 overall player and Jonathan Mogbo firmly in the lottery at #7.

The post Breaking Convention: Reed Sheppard, Jonathan Mogbo, and Identifying Stable Production appeared first on Swish Theory.

The board below contains archetype tags, sourced from my articles for the Stepien discussing rim protectors, shotmakers, connectors and offensive engines. Also included are four custom metrics, gauged subjectively rather than statistically. Scalability is one’s ability to scale up or down in usage on either end of the court. Readiness is where on the contribution timeline a player lands. Specialness is the collective rarity of skills (or, on the flipside, commonness of other traits). Versatility is what it sounds like.

Big Board Spots 1 through 20:

Big Board Spots 21 through 40:

The post Matt Powers’ 2024 NBA Draft Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Because the magic is elusive, difficult to explain, let’s break it down clip by clip. Featuring the highest feel players in the 2024 NBA draft class:

Nikola Topic

Moniker: Mass manipulator

Nikola Topic comes out as the top feel prospect in the 2024 draft class for one major reason: he is the only one capable of freezing an entire defense at once. Topic does this in a couple of ways, but mostly built off of his drive threat (he takes 7 rim attempts per game, and finishes at a 68% clip). No one is better at knowing when to attack a gap than Nikola, monitoring multiple opponents at once.

Here he attacks right as the opponent is switching onto him, but also right at the moment his big is clearing out the opposing rim protector under the basket. His execution is flawless: instead of attacking immediately he eats up space waiting for the confusion of the switch. He then sells his left hard before crossing and accelerating with his right. Then a hallmark of Topic’s drives: he can pick the ball up early and still confuse a rim protector with his stride lengths and deception. This time cradling with his right to protect from the defender on that side, slowing his gather to leap just past the lone big but not drifting too far left.

Balance, speed and coordination are all needed to pull off moves like this, but more than that it requires a feel of the defense. Topic not just knows how to get past one defender, but how to run defenders into each other.

Topic’s drive threat enhances his passing and vice-versa, and how he maintains a stellar 2.2 assist to turnover ratio. He is adamant in pushing the ball ahead, with a keen understanding of where the soft spots of the defense are. Above, bursting into transition and hitting Nikola Djurisic filling the lane. Then, immediately after, hunting a rebound, kicking out to a shooter while in mid-air. In both instances Topic is ahead of the game, getting an edge on his opponents with his awareness in spite of lagging them by multiple years in age.

This pass might not catch your eye at first, but exhibits Topic’s flexibility of mind. Realizing he has committed to passing to a blocked path, Topic recovers mid-pass, twisting his hand to instead dump the ball off to the big waiting nearby for the assist. That instantaneous adaptability is rare, even if making up for his own mistake.

Here, Topic reads a backdoor flawlessly, executing an off-hand scoop laser. While seemingly designed, it still requires patience and timing. Topic is a true court general for a professional team, and a big part of that is teammates trusting you to make a hairline pass.

Topic knows how to run pick and rolls, but a lot of people know how to do that. What makes him unique is his ability to layer in multiple responsibilities at once, aware of his teammates, while also slicing apart a defense with his drives. To stagger footwork and dribble moves when an opponent is most off-balance is an ultra-valuable trait not maintained by many teenagers. To do that while also hitting whichever of your four teammates is most open is genius.

Reed Sheppard

Moniker: Muck in the gears

Sheppard was featured among our most productive prospects, but shines even more with his feel for the game. Reed is more subtle with his swindling of unsuspecting opponents. At 6’2”, Sheppard has good not great athletic tools, but he weaponizes them to maximum effect.

A major way Sheppard makes life difficult for his opponents is his spatial awareness.

A hallmark of Sheppard’s playmaking is he often looks out of place. This may be the reality here and there – Reed is aggressive in seeking out plays – but The Reed Method generally works. In the above clip, he tags the roller hard given the hard hedge, making sure to cut off the big’s roll. He leaves his man longer than advisable, but, in true Sheppard way, gets the steal anyways. He knows exactly where his man will be cutting and rotates to the exact point he needs.

Reed’s spatial awareness mixes excellently with his hand-eye coordination and timing. Sheppard blocks shots by swiping in the single foot of space that will allow a non-fouling contest. This happens often – he is first in steal rate and sixth in block rate (yes, despite being only 6’2”) among high major freshmen in rotations.

On offense, Reed’s feel shines in three areas: his ability to seek out soft pockets, his ability to get shots off in small spaces, and his creative passing deliveries. In the above clip Reed weaponizes his hesitation dribble in a unique way. He first hesitates off of the ball screen to give his roller more time. Realizing the roll man isn’t on time (and, in fact, two defenders are on his tail), he takes a second hesi, this time faking a layup with the move, an inventive solution. Hesitations work for fake shooting, not just feigning a pass, and allow Sheppard to keep his dribble alive long enough to find the corner shooter.

Reed has to get creative due to his stature, which we’ve seen him accomplish in his defensive coverages and now also his passing. Add in his ability to get shots off in tiny spaces with heightened awareness and you see the outlines of a savant.

Reed Sheppard has best in class spatial awareness and hand-eye coordination, two traits that combine to make a stocks machine. Adding in his small space craftiness mean his feel is truly elite. Sheppard covers large territories by moving with intention and knowing how to beat people to their spots. He covers small spaces with near perfect hand placements. While not always perfect, he has the tools to make as advanced feel plays as anyone this class.

Devin Carter

Moniker: Now you see me

Devin Carter has been a feel god for his three college seasons, and especially on the defensive end where he has accumulated 182 stocks to only 153 fouls. But Carter’s feel extends beyond simply knowing how to swipe the ball on defense, especially as he has expanded his offensive game significantly in the 2023-24 season.

Here we see one kind of Carter’s magic. In the middle of the paint with three defenders swarming, Devin somehow manages to find the space to finish and adjusts to use the backboard despite the awkward angle. Carter has a knack for finding angles like this, and all over the court. This is the kind of innate talent that allows him to finish at a 67% clip with three of every four makes self-created.

Carter is capable of thinking ahead to bend the defense, too. In the above clip he pushes into the gap to his right knowing how that would collapse help. The second the rim protector (#23) commits, Carter is ready to dump it off to his man. While Carter mostly engages in connective passing – moving the ball along the perimeter to play finishers – his development as a play finisher has meant more opportunities to pass out of scoring gravity like this. While he may force looks here and there (his 1.3 ATO ratio leaves something to be desired), the idea is always sound.

Make sure you finish the above clip! Carter, ever one step ahead, jumps in front of the rebounder to bully the ball back in his hands. He misses the trey, but the willingness is encouraging as well – Carter has miraculously raised his three point attempt rate from 6.5 attempts per 100 as a sophomore to 11.0 (!) as a junior. And while raising his 3P% from 30% to 39%

Another example of his passing progression. Carter is not accustomed to being hedged against that high, with newfound three point volume extending his gravity (6.5 3PA/game after 3.5 last season). However, he has immediately figured out how to use this to his passing advantage. Here, Carter makes a push dribble to split the hedge, then engaging with his two shooting targets. While nothing special for traditional point guards, this development is key to Carter’s upside. Not just for the skill itself, but for his ability to problem solve in evolving ways.

Carter appears where you least expect him to succinctly apply his broad skillset. It is tough to count him out of any single play given how he can connect passes, create them, finish off of drives or from deep and create transition opportunities on defense. All of these make him a first round-worthy prospect, with a solid floor and perhaps continually untapped upside, building on some of the best feel in the class.

Reece Beekman

Moniker: Cuts like a knife

The first clip below is quintessential Beekman, as you can already see how he deserves to be on this list.

Reece sets up the offense before receiving an exit screen he hides behind, then gaming the re-screen by rejecting in favor of the baseline. Already he has found a gap, and simply through accuracy of positioning. Next, he gives a slow snake through the paint before whipping a one-handed kick out to the corner. But the sequence is not done. Back on defense, Reece sprints through a double drag quickly enough to swipe around the ballhandler, poke the ball free and dunk.

Everything is on display here, from his care to involve his teammates on offense, his specificity of footwork, his situational awareness to take well-timed risks.

Above another accomplishment of a lot with a little. Recognizing that his teammates’ disorganized screening and cutting was futile, Beekman slashes into the lane with his left (65% of his drives). He waits for both of UVA’s shooters to clear out as he makes his move, help turned away or obstructed. Then, in the middle of the lane, he keeps his defender on his back with a well-timed hesitation sideways into his body. This also freezes the big man help, as his hesi opens up a passing window should he choose to dump it off. Instead, he finishes with a wide open window.

While UVA’s offense might get him easy assists as he is the conductor surrounded by cutters, Beekman has also figured out how to sneak in rim attempts below the radar like this. Beekman’s self created rim attempts per game increased by 40% from last season. He’s getting plenty of opportunities with his 28% usage but figuring out how to expand efficiently – his 52% true shooting is the highest mark of his college career. As a mediocre shooter overall, gaming interior opportunities like this is essential.

Beekman is a surgeon on the defensive end. He weaponizes his knife-like hands with perfect swipe placement, aggressive with both hands. According to the barttorvik.com database, Beekman has two of the seven seasons with a 4% steal rate or higher and fewer than two steals per 40 minutes. He clears both thresholds easily, the highest steal rate of that group with the second fewest fouls. He is the best perimeter defender in the class, through a wide stance capable of choppy feet but also picture-perfect positioning, timing for when to swipe. He will be an elite defender at the next level, too.

Reece Beekman has leveraged the same type of footwork accuracy that has made him a deadly matchup on the defensive end to expand his game on offense. With rim attempts and assists per game increasing ever year, it is unfair to count Beekman out for continuing to make his offense NBA-viable. Simply being where you’re supposed to, then cutting like a knife with decisive action is how Beekman operates. That will be deadly regardless of the competition.

Oso Ighodaro

Moniker: Steady presence

Our only big among the highest feel players (with respect to Clingan, Hall, Holmes, Almansa, Mogbo, Yang, Filipowski, Broome…there are a lot of high feel bigs in this class), Oso Ighodaro is the most mistake-free player on this list. Ighodaro gets stocks without fouling and assists without turning the ball over. He is the fulcrum for Marquette, and they are happy to allow him to make countless important decisions each game.

The first clip is on execution, Oso’s specialty. Just as his man begins to roll, noting the difficult angle the ballhandler would have to make a pass, Oso hops aggressively to trap the ball. Flustered, the ballhandler coughs it up with ease. Sticking with the play, Oso is ready for the ball on the fast break, takes a beat to spin to an opening and…blows the layup. It happens. But the important part is Oso is always ready, and in position.

Another example of perfect execution with a flair of creativity. Oso is a great screener, often considered a lost art in young bigs. Here he hunches over, making his body as big as possible to lock up the ballhandler’s defender. He rides this mismatch to the tin, and then, after a poor delivery, is nimble enough to spin mid-air and find a shooter. Ighodaro is not just capable of running your plays, but is prepared to adjust when things go awry.

Ighodaro is excellent with positioning on both sides of the court. Here he is vigilant to prevent the clear out, and then also the entry to Joel Soriano, despite being disadvantaged by 35 pounds. He gets leverage both high (pulling Soriano’s shoulder back) and low (getting under his center of gravity). When the Marquette defense breaks down anyways, Oso is ready to help — but not too far. Staying one step away, he has just enough time to rotate back for the block.

This type of feeling out positioning as not a strict guideline but basis to then make plays is the hallmark of Oso Ighodaro’s game. Any NBA team would be comforted by his stable presence, but also feel comfortable running second side actions in an instant. He has done this at a very high level with Marquette – bolstered by excellent finishing touch – and would be just as reliable in the NBA.

The post How Prospects Read the Game appeared first on Swish Theory.

That’s the first question I ask myself as I begin the process for my 2024 NBA draft board. By separating production, feel and athletic premiums, I will try to show my notes as I sort out my analysis of 2024 prospects.

Starting with production makes sense given it is the most observable, and by far. Players produce by getting stats, and we have plenty of stats. However, it is not as simple as a 1:1 translation, as many highly productive college players struggle to reach close to that production in the pros. The reverse – little production leading to great production – is rarer, but still occurs.

For our analysis, the definition of production will be something like: “able to make things happen almost by accident through presence and skill.” The “by accident” part works to strip away feel from the equation, which will be the next article. “Through presence and skill” aims to remove the athletic component, the third prong.

While grading prospects based on expectations of future production is impossible with 100% accuracy, the hope is we can land close enough to separate our views from consensus. Rather than spend a long article describing how production can play out on a basketball court, I illustrate how production occurs through five examples.

Tier 1: Dominance

Primary Example: Zach Edey

How does he produce on the court?

Zach Edey is the pinnacle of production, as shown by his NCAA-leading Box Plus-Minus of 14.3. This is the 12th highest mark in the barttorvik.com database, after posting the 13th highest mark the season prior. Edey is a beast.

His production is far from hidden, either. At 7’4”, 300 pounds with a 7’10.5” wingspan, Edey is gargantuan. His movement ability has improved every year, too. With his combined size and movement abiliy, Edey creates events on the floor almost on accident. Add in nimble footwork and elite spatial awareness and you have a player not just lumbering around but dodging and flipping hips as well at his size.

It would be miserable to be screened by Edey or have to box him out. That physical dominance earns Edey a 10 out of 10 for production, but not just for current rather than expectations in the pros.

How easily does he produce?

The margins Edey wins by are astronomical. It is tough to scratch the ceiling above rebounding 26% of defensive opportunities or 17% of offensive ones. When he posts up, he is capable of holding that position for many seconds awaiting an entry pass, and then is able to convert that into a hook, drop step, or just straight dunking right over his opponent. There is more scoring versatility than meets the eye with Edey, simply through the variety of angles he has access to at his size.

In addition, Edey is a vigilant screener and passer. It is easy to imagine him as an NBA-level screener at his size and movement ability, and likely a very good one. He has figured out how to double-hand kick-out pass above all opponents’ heads, more difficult in the NBA with swarming long-wingspanned defenders, but Edey’s size to find better angles won’t go away.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

My counter-intuitive take is it might, in fact, get easier in the NBA. At the college level Edey has to deal with a double or triple team every single time he touches the ball. This has likely boosted his assist rate (again, the biggest area of production concern), but raised the degree of difficulty on his finishes (not that it mattered). The ease with which Edey can navigate multiple surrounding defenders swiping at the ball to still turn and finish should not go unnoticed, and might indeed lead to continued easy buckets in the pros.

Edey’s weakness is defending away from the basket, but as a likely drop defender that should have little impact on his overall production. His steals will be low but blocks high (he has swatted 8% of opponent attempts) and rebounding should continue to be above average for a big, if not flat out excellent.

Edey has improved his movement ability and fitness quality every year with Purdue. This provides a lot of encouragement to his ability to adapt to the pros. However, it is possible (if not likely) that his opponent will have to do more of the adapting, to Edey’s size and skill. Edey has put up historic usage and rebounding rates while shooting a spectacular 67% true shooting (84% at the rim, 41% midrange, 72% from the line) to the point that even a standard deviation drop would still be excellent. He makes things happen on the court constantly and will at the next level, too.

The question of whether the speed of the game is too much for Edey ignores the major strides he’s made in his fitness and also his dominance per minute. He might need to make additional improvements to physique to play over 30 minutes per game but he has shown the ability to do that the past two seasons at Purdue. Advanced training in the NBA (Zach has not yet turned 22) can help that along. However, Edey’s talent is worth slowing down for, and that would only likely be a little.

Examples of others in this tier?

None

Tier 2: Conditional Dominance

Primary Example: Reed Sheppard

How does he produce on the court?

Reed is on the opposite end compared to Edey’s stature: at 6’3” and 187 pounds, Sheppard faces an uphill battle for his production. He compensates with everything else.

To be a productive player you have to make unlikely events possible, and that’s exactly what Reed does. His greatest strength is his positioning and hand placement, as one thinks themselves open to only be surprised by a last second Sheppard. Sheppard’s production is difficult to separate from his feel, as he moves across the court almost automatically in optimal position. The production is real and significant all over the court, as Sheppard’s 12.4 Box Plus-Minus is the highest for all freshmen by a long shot. Indeed, he only trails Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, Michael Beasley, Evan Mobley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Love in the all-in-one box score statistic. The height hasn’t mattered to reach historic production already compared to his age group.

This means Sheppard’s production is all-encompassing, from stocks to rebounds to assists and points. By being in the right position and having the skill to capitalize, Sheppard looks like one of the most productive college players of all time.

How easily does he produce?

What prevents Sheppard from landing in the first tier is his stature at only 6’3” (and that might be generous). Simply by that fact the margins for him to overcome are more significant than for someone like Zach Edey who will always be a foot taller than Sheppard. His handle is also more functional than masterful, limiting his roaming with the ball and thus blocking off an area of potential production. Neither has mattered in the least for Sheppard, but he may find himself struggling to have an impact inside the arc against a trying matchup here and there in the pros.

The production on defense, however, is undeniable. Sheppard feels omnipresent on the court, rotating faster than one can process watching him. He is very strong, capable of banging in the post and stonewalling drives, but more importantly knows how to leverage that strength. This will give him a lynchpin on defense, not being attacked physically, to then make things happen with his rapid, accurate hand movements or by popping out of nowhere.

The distance shooting is bankable, too. He has taken 8 threes per 100 possessions and made over half of them. His release is lightning fast with little load time and good release point. That volume shooting will help space the court at any level, making closeouts easier to reduce the burden on his handle, and also open up passing lanes. Reed is not the most manipulative passer but, similar to his handle, is excellent at making it functional nonetheless.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

Sheppard is so masterful in what he does well and versatile across the court it is highly likely he will produce at a high level in the NBA. The biggest challenge is the longer wingspans blocking off his passing lanes on offense and making his contests more difficult on defense. But Reed has already found ways to compensate for both. He gets off the floor very quickly with good ‘instant vertical.’ His hand placement often shows awareness to exactly where an opponent’s release point will be, or where they will gather before the attempt.

Sheppard’s feel for the game hints at future improvements, but that is for the next article. Sheppard is capable of producing (and likely very well) at an NBA level today with his activity, physicality and versatility of skillset. He creates events almost automatically as he gets into an opponent’s body or lets it fly in a split second from deep. Despite his stature, he is imposing physically in his own way.

While there can be knits to pick for his athletic tools, getting blown by or shot over here and there, he has used those opportunistically to reposition and make something happen even so.

Examples of others in this tier?

Jonathan Mogbo, Ron Holland

Tier 3: Omnipresence

Primary Example: PJ Hall

How does he produce on the court?

Post ups, spot ups, rolling to the basket. Cuts, transition looks, putbacks. PJ Hall does all of those things at least once per game. He also does that while vacuuming up rebounds, blocking shots and getting some assists and steals. His 30% usage for Clemson is top 10 in the country.

PJ Hall is active. Although not the quickest laterally (steals his weakest stat), Hall is a bruising big, listed at 6’10” and 238 pounds, who is physical all over the court. His front line speed and explosion is better than the mobility otherwise would suggest.

And yes, he scores from all over. While not the most difficult of looks – he only has five made shots off the dribble – it points to his variety of usage. By being strong and physical and constantly in place, Hall is ready.

How easily does he produce?

Hall is only in the third tier for this reason: the margins are often thin, especially for his scoring. His rebounding is likely the most ironclad contribution: Hall has a decent wingspan and can get off his feet quickly. Contested boards become clean ones often, with PJ claiming his with fervor.

The blocks come next, again benefitting from his interior strength and above average leaping. While far from a primary rim protector, an opponent would at least not be able to lose track of Hall’s location.

Hall has plenty of scoring versatility in college, which works for him in some ways but against in others. To start with the bad news, there is no obvious easy day one offensive specialty. His outside shot is okay (33% from deep, 79% from the line) with better luck inside the arc (57% from two). His primary scoring output comes from post ups, at 7.4 per game.

The good news is the breadth of skill means you don’t have to choose any single way to use him. Hall can fill in admirably in many spots. His post ups are not slow and plodding but decisive and featuring many drop step dunks. Posting up might not be his sweet spot but rather a means to an end.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

The biggest difficulty for Hall on an NBA floor will be sticking to his man. While likely quick enough to guard your average big, he would often be faced with an athletic gap when defending in space. His fitness and physicality will counter that, a locked in facet of his game regardless of competition.

The biggest question is his willingness to let it fly, a major source of production in itself. Should he continue to let it fly with little hesitation, perhaps bolstered by a little more improvement in his percentages, Hall being in Tier 3 means he has more than enough stuff to stick around.

Examples of others in this tier?

Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis

Tier 4: Consistent Presence

Primary Example: KJ Simpson

How does he produce on the court?

Playing against KJ Simpson must feel like whack-a-mole: wherever you snuff out his movement, a moment later he’s popping up elsewhere. At just 6’2”, Simpson overcomes his stature a few ways: his strength, his instincts, his vertical pop, his quickness. These all make Simpson difficult to screen and difficult to keep out of the paint.

Let’s return to our definition of production, “how many things does he make happen by accident?” As he’s #13 in the NCAA for Box Plus-Minus, it seems a lot. He rebounds (16% rate), assists (26%) and gets plenty of steals (3.4%). He leads his team in usage at 27%. The statistical case for Simpson is very strong.

Simpson is capable of no-load threes as well as skying in for the occasional dunk (9 so far this season). He gets into his pull-up smoothly with four self-created perimeter points per game. He may not be a traditional tank knocking people around to cause chaos, but he can do it surgically while powerfully.

How easily does he produce?

The visual evidence is murkier than the stellar statistical resume. KJ Simpson wins often by small margins, but is intentional enough in his application that he gives just enough effort to win. This hints at Simpson being able to scale up or down at the NBA level as he can deliberately focus his efforts onto different roles. Need an on-ball initiator? An off-ball catch and shooter? A closeout attacker? A ball-moving connector? Simpson can effectively do any of these.

On defense, the steals come by activity and physicality. Simpson can bully weaker NCAA guards, even at only 189 pounds. He hits screeners when he is screened and boxes out hard. These might not all create events but it does carve out space on the court, and more than all but a few NCAA guards.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

The NBA is not kind to small guards. But how small does Simpson play, really? There will be many plays that simply sail over his head which would not at the NCAA level, with the NBA full of big and wing creators. But Simpson’s role and athletic versatility will ease the adjustment.

While small guards still survive in the league, the margins are very thin. Simpson needs to continue refining his toolset to ensure an NBA impact. Already built and quick and a good leaper, Simpson is not far off from the median point guard’s athleticism, and may be greater than. But the easy victories will stop, only tough ones from here. This is why I ultimately knocked him down to an 8.5, in spite of a stellar of a statistical resume as nearly anyone in the NCAA.

Simpson is a good bet to find a way to contribute, but the degree is highly uncertain. Regardless, that’s a bet I’d be comfortable making in the first round.

Examples of others in this tier?

Tyler Kolek, Baylor Scheierman

Tier 5: Selective Presence

Primary Example: Milan Momcilovic

How does he produce on the court?

Milan Momcilovic is not convincing as an NBA-level athlete, but has the tools and skill to succeed regardless. His production is the most siloed of any we’ve described so far: he takes (and makes) a ton of threes. Despite this narrow avenue of contribution, Momcilovic still ranks in the top 10 for high major freshman by Box Plus-Minus. This is because Milan is 6’8” and has a quick, high release. Sometimes the analysis doesn’t need a second question: Momcilovic produces by hitting unblockable shots.

The rest of his game is middling, dragged down by his poor foot speed, limited burst and stiffness. A 12% defensive rebound rate and 2.1% block rate are closer to the stats of a 6’5” prospect than a 6’8” one, but there is a baseline of production nonetheless. And while Milan is not very mobile, he is still enough to be a consistent presence guarding fours.

How easily does he produce?

Momcilovic’s production is tilted towards three point volume, and that’s where he’s winning by large margins. The effective release height on his shot is more like a 6’10” player than a 6’8” one, releasing above his head with great arc. When we’re talking about projectable production, it is difficult to get more bankable than a release point that high going in at a 40% rate on very good volume. But that’s what we have with Milan.

His size comes in handy, even if not snagging down rebounds or skying for blocks. At his size he can set effective screens and generally be a big body on the court. Even when he’s not adding to his stat total, he’s taking up more space than the average NBA player.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

He will be attacked on defense. Finding the right player to park Milan on will be essential for his early career success. Milan has little chance of hanging in with either 3s or 5s, relegated to the non-explosive 4s. That makes the margins tighter on offense where he has to be successful with his strengths. This is why Momcilovic is in Tier 5, as there is little guarantee he can hang in enough to capitalize on his strengths.

But the bedrock of high volume, high accuracy three point shooting is a function needed by every team, and Momcilovic is convincing as almost anyone in the class for that role.

Examples of others at this grade?

Wooga Poplar, Tre Mitchell

The post How Prospects Make Things Happen appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

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Malik Mack’s Offensive Juice

In the last ~70 years, there’s only been one player from Harvard to suit up in an NBA game: Jeremy Lin. Often lost in the legendary underdog story is just how dominant Lin was in the Ivy. 67.1% at the rim, 7.8% stock rate, .691 FTr, 30.8% assist rate as a junior? It’s hard to draw up a wilder stat line for a 6’3” guard (Reed Sheppard may like a word). 

It’s been a long while since Linsanity, and few Ivy Leaguers have established themselves as true pro prospects in the last two decades. Princeton’s Devin Cannady got some run with the Magic from 2020-2022. The Jazz picked Yale’s Miye Oni at 58th in 2019. But today, Harvard Freshman Malik Mack should be on everyone’s draft radar. 

Through ten games the 6’1” guard is stuffing the stat sheet, posting 20.1 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.1 steals a night on 62.5% true shooting. He’s hitting a blistering 47.2% of his 10.4 3-point attempts/100. Shooting versatility is one of the main selling points for Mack, with his smooth lefty stroke. He gets plenty of elevation on his jumper and his high release point allows him to shoot comfortably over the outreaching arms of defenders. 

Harvard has done a great job utilizing Mack’s movement shooting ability. He’s looked comfortable firing out of DHOs and off screens, particularly with rightward momentum. His fluidity and flexibility on these actions pops off the screen, as he’s capable of running at high speeds before flowing into his shot. I love the sudden motion in the first clip below – going from slow to fast to create separation without the ball in his hands. It’s great to see such off-ball aptitude from a guy carrying a 29.8% usage rate. 

Mack’s off-the-dribble shot is equally as dangerous – he’s made more unassisted threes this year (13) than he has assisted threes (11). Despite lacking top end explosiveness, Mack creates just enough space for his jumper with a tight and crafty handle. Using hang-dribbles, jabs, and deceptive crossovers, Mack keeps defenders honest. He’s especially comfortable on step-backs and fade-aways, as his shot seems to have a natural backwards sway.

The scoring is the obvious pitch, but he’s also ahead of the curve as a playmaker. He’s a one-handed lefty passer through and through, capable of making the weak-side corner skip and hitting the roller with slick wraparounds. I’ve been impressed by his ability to stay composed and make the correct read versus at-the-level ball screen coverages. The delivery in the first clip is just nasty. With four defenders collapsing, Mack pulls the ball behind his leg and somehow whips it between everyone to the right wing. 

Mack is one to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. While there are plenty of challenges for the undersized guard to overcome (finishing amongst the trees and defense), he’s a world class shot-maker, and it’s encouraging to see his abilities as a playmaker and off-ball shooter shining this early in his college career. 

Otega Oweh’s Power and Instincts

Oklahoma has been dominant in non-conference play, with huge wins over Iowa, USC, Providence, and Arkansas. A large reason for their success has been sophomore Otega Oweh, a burly guard whose strength and power overwhelm opponents on both ends of the floor. 

Oweh does most of his damage in the paint, with 65% of his shot attempts this season coming at the rim. He’s tough to stop with a head of steam going downhill, getting low on his drives and using his long stride lengths and change of direction ability to generate paint touches. Once he gets to the rim, Oweh uses his large frame to keep defenders on his hip and get to lefty extension finishes. 

Oweh has been weirdly effective as a shooter this year, having made ten of his fourteen three point attempts. The sample size is obviously tiny, and given that he finished 1 for 4 last season, his shooting projection is far from a sure thing. He’s put some clean-looking makes on film, like this confident spot-up over a solid contest… 

But notice how low his release point is on the shot below.

Regardless of the inevitable “will he draw closeouts?” questions, Oklahoma does a good job scheming him rim touches, using him as a trailer or getting him downhill off hand-offs. He’s decisive enough off the catch to eat up space that defenders give him. 

While I appreciate his aggressiveness, I think he could let the game slow down a little more. His drives rarely turn into assists, as he’s prone to passing up open shooters on the perimeter or dump-off windows in favor of jumping without a plan and forcing up impossible layups. 8.1% is a poor assist rate for someone who gets downhill as often as he does. 

He also generates rim attempts without the ball in his hands, using his off-ball feel to pick out spots as a cutter and offensive rebounder. In the first clip, notice how he perfectly times his move with the backline defender helping on the drive. Then he makes the high-effort tip-in as time expires. 

His hustle and instincts translate to the defensive side of the floor. He’s a steal and slam waiting to happen, frequently intercepting passes and taking it to the house. He has the lower-body strength to hold up in the post and the mobility and hands to disrupt as an off-ball chaser. He has a 5.1% steal rate this season, right in line with his 5.3% steal rate last year. 

Oweh has been a two-way force to start the season. His NBA sell is tough without the shot coming around, but his defensive toughness, slashing, cutting, and raw production make him a guy worth checking out. 

Reed Sheppard is Doing It All

Reed Sheppard’s numbers don’t even seem real. I promise I’m not exaggerating. 15.4 BPM, 77.0 True Shooting%, 4.0 Block%, 5.9 Steal%, 57.1 3P%, 21.1 AST%, 86.7 at rim FG% … we really haven’t seen anything like this. 

His shooting prowess should stand out to any NBA team. Sheppard has consistent mechanics, and he’s capable of hitting shots off the catch and off the dribble from well beyond the three point line. Inside the arc, he uses his feathery touch to knock down difficult looks off the bounce. 

My question is just how audacious is Sheppard? 8.6 attempts/100 possessions is solid volume, but it isn’t that high for a shooter of his caliber. It’s tough in an offense full of guards and ball-handlers, but I love the blips of him not giving a damn. Watch below as he pulls-up versus an under from the logo and spots up from way way way behind the line and fires. Could we see a volume spike in an NBA offense? Immanuel Quickley has taken ~2.5 more threes/100 with the Knicks than he did in two years at Kentucky.

Most of the time, Sheppard makes the right play. He’s a steady connective passer who does a good job finding the open man. He constantly has his head up – I love the vision to find Aaron Bradshaw running hard to the rim in semi-transition. 

However, I worry about how his creation looks at the next level, particularly as a slasher. Sheppard rarely creates layups for himself in the half-court. He too often drives without even glancing at the rim, turning his body away from the basket before kicking it out to the perimeter. Sheppard has a solid first step, but his third and fourth steps slow him down. His strides shorten and he struggles to explode all the way to the rack. This can lead to some rough looking turnovers when the gap help is well-prepared. 

Sheppard’s defense has been remarkable, albeit not perfect. There are moments of off-ball spaciness and jumpiness on closeouts, and some of his gambles do not pay off. At the same time, Sheppard has perhaps the quickest hands of any prospect in recent memory, making life hell for opponents on the ball. He has a unique ability to evade screens and poke the ball loose from ball-handlers without fouling. It’s like he’s spamming the steal button in rookie mode on 2k. 

This should be an easy post-entry pass, but Sheppard comes in from behind to force a turnover. And then he finishes the play contesting the fast break lay-up with verticality that you don’t see from a 6’3” guard. 

While there may be some athletic and self-creation limitations here, I’m struggling to see the argument against Reed Sheppard’s NBA case. He makes too many good things happen on both ends of the floor. 

Dailyn Swain’s Movement Skills and Defensive Aptitude

Dailyn Swain probably isn’t going to end up in this year’s draft class, averaging just 5.3 points per game on 14.0% usage, but the 18-year old wing has caught my eye with his advanced defensive skill set. 

It starts with his ball-screen defense, where Swain is incredibly nimble at 6’7”. He glides over screens with relative ease, staying attached to his man, getting skinny, and dipping his shoulder to fight through. Even if he ends up a little behind play, Swain has the recovery tools to regain ground and engulf shots from behind. 

His awareness here is excellent. Swain gets caught up in the screen and gives up an advantage. However, he recognizes the pass to the roller coming and peels off from the ball-handler, drifting down and forcing a turnover. 

He’s another guy with elite hand placement, keeping his mitts active for on-ball deflections and strips. He boasts a 3.8% block rate and a 3.4% steal rate, and only commits 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Away from the ball, he uses his long stride lengths to cover swaths of ground, and he’s capable of helping at the rim or in a gap and recovering back to his man. 

Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out exactly what Swain is. He hasn’t made a three since November 13th (3/11 on the season), and while he has solid vision, he also throws too many errant passes. I’m curious to see how he develops as a creator given how fluid he looks with the ball in his hands. He looks like a true vet in the clip below, spinning to his right, getting his defender leaping with an up-fake, and drawing the foul. Plays like this, along with his 50.0 FTr, are indicative of his feel and potential craft. 

Again, I doubt Swain generates enough buzz to be a one-and-done, but he offers an intriguing package as a young, defense-oriented wing with untapped offensive upside. 

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