Winning at the highest level of the NBA is all about finding advantages within razor-thin margins. If it’s the draft, it could be about maximizing the level of talent you can add on a rookie-scale deal. With scouting, it could be investing in underutilized facets like pro-player scouting where teams can gain an advantage against the field by finding undervalued players in restrictive contexts. On the NBA court, teams and players win at the highest level by creating advantages and effectively acting upon them.

Advantage creation on the basketball court is the ability to create extra rotations against opposing defenses, creating a numbers advantage that opens up easier baskets. Basketball is a sport that is all about creating these extra rotations on the court. That idea is amplified by the fact that basketball has fewer players on the court than other team sports such as American football, baseball, or football. With only five players on the court at a time for a team and individual players able to play 75% or more of each game, the value that impact players such as stars can have is larger than in other team sports (Sanderson and Siegfried, 2003). Having even a slight numbers advantage is often the difference between an offense finding efficient shots versus being deterred by a defense and finding a worse shot.

Think about the 2024 NBA champions, the Boston Celtics, for example. The Celtics run a 5-out offense that maximizes the spacing on the court by consistently having five players on the court who can dribble, pass, and shoot. The increased spacing opens up avenues for players to have larger windows to dribble, pass, and shoot due to the defense needing to give all five players defensive attention, stretching the defense thin. Even within this offensive structure, players need to be able to collapse defenses and put them in scramble mode to create a numbers advantage and truly leverage that spacing. The Celtics’ offense is predicated on this idea of all five players being able to drive and collapse the defense to open up more valuable shots on the perimeter.

The best teams in the NBA can create advantages in different ways, enabling them to be versatile and tackle several different defensive schemes that are thrown at them. Advantages can be created through driving, leveraging strength in the post or even shooting gravity where shooters can move on or off the ball to tilt defenses. Part of the reason that the Celtics had a dominant 16-3 run in the playoffs is that even though their offense was built on the principles of driving advantage creation, they had the versatility to create post advantages through players like Kristaps Porzingis and Jayson Tatum. When healthy, Porzingis was able to create advantages in the post and score consistently in the regular season, the most efficient post-up player in the NBA with at least two post-up possessions a game on a scorching 1.30 points-per-possession.

Drawing two or more players from a standstill without the help of scheme is often the most valuable tool for an NBA offense, and it is often why advantage creation is a star trait. When it comes to the NBA draft, this is often why prospects who can create advantages from a standstill on volume tend to be high draft picks. It is a star trait you can see in top picks like Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Zion Williamson, and Ja Morant.

All the players mentioned above achieve that level of play not just by consistently creating those advantages, but also by perceiving and capitalizing on them while possessing a counter when defenses attempt to nullify their primary methods of advantage creation (i.e. when the defense clogs driving lanes by helping off non-shooters).

Advantage Creation Vs. Scalability

In the NBA draft, a question arises on how these players bring value to a team when the advantage creation is not to the degree of being a primary ballhandler. How can these players play effectively off the ball if most of their value comes from how they tilt defenses on the ball? This question of scalability arises when talking about these prospects, but I believe these concerns are often overblown because advantage creation is a skill that inherently lends itself to scalability.

With how offenses are built around a player or multiple players’ ability to create advantages, that heliocentric perspective can make it difficult to bring into focus how advantage creation lends to a player supporting an offensive structure off the ball. The degree of value varies across forms of advantage creation, with shooting gravity-based advantages the most scalable off-the-ball with how it stretches defenses. Think of how Stephen Curry completely changes the geometry of the court, without even having to touch the ball, the sole threat of his shot opens up easier shots in other areas of the court.

Even outside of shooting, the skills a player gains through driving advantage creation can help the player scale off the ball. When the player has a high degree of margin with their drives due to the athletic tools and skills they possess, it can create off-ball gravity as well. How, you may ask? Let’s take the example of Zion Williamson who has a truly outlier toolset as a driver but can’t threaten defenses with his shot. How does someone like him keep defenses honest when the ball is out of his hands? A player like Williamson can be sagged off of because they’re not a threat to shoot, but what this does is it gives him a larger window to create an advantage off the ball. It gives him the space to now get downhill, leverage his physical tools more effectively, and collapse the defense to a higher degree, either opening up a shot on the perimeter or an opportunity to score at the rim.

The same skills that Williamson would use on his drives on the ball parlay to a role off of the catch, and change the geometry of the defense in different ways. Post-up players can similarly do this off the ball with drives that turn into post-ups (Barkleys), using their strength to change their proximity to the rim and draw multiple players to protect the rim.

Due to how these traits still tilt defenses off the ball, I believe advantage creation traits are actually the most scalable traits in basketball. That scalability is then amplified by the degree to which a player can create advantages and the vehicle (shooting touch, burst, strength, etc) they use to deliver those advantages. The clear examples I would use are Dennis Smith Jr. (DSJ) and Zion Williamson. The ability to scale off the ball is a lot more effective with a player like Williamson but this does not mean Dennis Smith Jr. can not create off-ball gravity to a lesser degree with the threat of his first step and vertical explosion as a play-finisher. Even though DSJ fell short of his ceiling, his floor was higher due in part to these advantage-creating traits.

Two Feet In The Paint

Outside of shooting gravity, I find that advantages created through driving are often the most efficient ways to create offense due to how quickly these advantages are created within the shot clock and the degree to which it puts defenses in scramble mode. The speed at which these breaks in the defensive shell are typically created makes it more difficult for the defense to react and retaliate, speeding up the ability for an offense to find an efficient shot earlier in the shot clock while also having a higher margin of error to maintain the advantage.

The best drivers in the league also collapse defenses to such a high degree with how deep they can get into the paint. This is a crucial factor when projecting high-level drivers in the NBA: how consistently can the player get two feet in the paint and how complex does their drive have to be to get there? Due to how much ground needs to be covered to recover back out to the perimeter once a deep paint touch is created, the best driving advantage creators can open up high-value shots to the perimeter in strong-side kickouts or even skip passes to the weak side. Two feet in the paint also opens up opportunities for other players lurking near the rim to get easy rim attempts, just due to the defensive attention required by the ballhandler’s paint pressure

Perceiving when these passes are available as an advantage creator is a huge part of being a primary driver, whether it’s being able to find these open shots at the rim or the perimeter on volume.

Advantage Perception

“Advantage Perception is recognizing that there is an advantage and identifying what action, angle, timing and delivery will create the best possible opportunities for the team to score. Advantage perception is about deciding what hurts a defense most at any given time.”

– PD Web

This is what I mean when I say a player has to leverage his advantages effectively. To be a high-level creator in the NBA you need the ability to create advantages to a high degree while also perceiving what shot hurts the defense the most. You need both and let me spotlight that with two examples:

If you can perceive what passes hurt the defense the most but can’t get the defense to completely tilt, you end up with a far smaller shot window.

Here the Creighton Bluejays run a triple drag into an empty-side PNR off of a broken play where Baylor Scheierman (#55) is unable to initially create an advantage off of a drive. Scheierman and Francisco Farabello (#5) set ghost screens off of the drag and Fredrick King (#33) sets a screen to set up the roll for the empty-side PNR. The idea here is for the ballhandler to explode into the space created by the empty side to open up a shot at the rim for King or a pass to the ghost screeners for an open 3. Trey Alexander’s inability to create these advantages from a standstill, especially with the trap from Iowa, forces him to make the pass earlier. Alexander perceives what pass makes the defense hurt, but because he doesn’t create a real numbers advantage with his explosion, the defense can recover back to Scheierman, which makes his shot window far smaller and the offense has to settle for a tougher shot.

On the other side of this, being able to make the defense commit with your paint pressure but failing to recognize these advantages can also hinder the offense.

Here Anthony Edwards (#5) creates an advantage off of his drive, beating Jaden Hardy (#1) off the dribble with his explosion and keeps him on his hip which forces Lively (#2) to play further up on the drive so that Edwards does not have an open shot. The second Lively commits, if there was one more step from Edwards, it opens a lob over the top of the defense or a dump-off finish for Rudy Gobert (#27). Edwards fails to perceive this advantage effectively and it leads to a shot that the Mavs are completely happy with.

The upper-echelon of advantage creators in the NBA need to be able to both create these advantages and perceive them with volume, otherwise, it gives the defense options to deter and force an offense to take an unwanted shot.

The 2024 NBA Draft

So how do we apply this to the NBA draft? The 2024 NBA draft is considered one of the worst in recent times and that may be due to the lack of surefire advantage-creation prospects at the top. There are flawed advantage creator bets in this class, however, I feel like there is one prospect that is going under the radar in this class: a prospect that has both the tools and feel to reach a high-end advantage creation outcome.

Blink And You Might Miss Him

The hardest things to develop to be a volume standstill advantage creator, especially as a driver, are the athletic tools to create advantages and the feel to perceive the advantages. Shooting, and handling development to a lesser degree, can be developed when the touch and coordination are there. Feel and athletic tools are far harder to improve on. The driving prospect needs to show signs of being able to absorb a high volume of self-created drives within their shot diet and the feel to see what opportunities open up with their advantages. Ron Holland is that prospect this year and let me explain why.

Let’s start with the driving. A barely 19-year-old, 6’8″ wing in shoes, 196.8 pounds, and a 6’10.75″ wingspan, Ron Holland’s primary way of getting buckets is as a driver. So how is Ron as a driver, does he create advantages consistently and perceive them? To answer this question I thought it would make some sense to do some statistical analysis and contextualize his driving profile.

I started by compiling a sample that fit these requirements since the 2010 NBA Draft:

• Wing~Forward sized (greater than or equal to 6’6″ and lesser than equal to 6’10”)
• Freshman~Sophomore aged (below the age of 20.5 years at draft time.)
• Top-20 picks (beyond lottery range to account for high RSCI players who may have slid in the draft.)
• From College or G-League Ignite context.

I included Ron in this sample, and I used these thresholds as proxies to fit Ron’s combination of size, age, and talent. Now to measure a player’s driving advantage creation and their passing advantage perception, I captured two stats that could form a proxy. For driving advantage creation, I will use unassisted rim attempts per game to get a fair idea of how many self-created drives a player has. For passing advantage perception, I will use assist/usage ratio to understand how often a player is assisting relative to their usage. While there is noise in both of these proxies, viewing them in relation can form an idea of how a player is creating advantages and perceiving them as a driver.

It’s probably a little difficult to see everything in this visualization, so let’s zoom in to make it easier on our eyes. Since we are looking for drivers who meet the baseline to be a volume advantage creator, let us look at guys specifically over 2.5 unassisted rim attempts a game and an AST/USG ratio above 0.4.

The colors of the dot also represent age to spotlight the production relative to age. As you can see, Holland’s unassisted drive volume is unprecedented at 6.71 drives a game. Over double the volume of players like Paolo Banchero and Paul George, while being almost a year younger than players like that. Now there might be some trepidation with comparing college players with Ignite players, and some of Ron’s unprecedented volume can be explained by the fact that there is more of a developmental focus with Ignite, court dimensions being larger and pace being higher in the G League.

But here’s the kicker, Holland’s volume is unprecedented even against players who played through the G League Ignite context. Players that were closer to Ron’s usage rate (28.1%), like Scoot Henderson (26.8%) and Jalen Green (23.2%), were unable to crack over 4 unassisted drives a game.

Ron Holland (#0) was assisted on only 23.24% of all of his rim attempts, a stat I hand-tracked by watching all of his shot attempts, but how does he do this? Holland uses a combination of elite burst, flexibility, and body control to consistently get two feet in the paint

Holland has this unique ability to keep his upper body upright while getting extremely low on drives and springing back up like an outstretched coil that’s returned to its original state which allows him to explode into tight areas around the rim to access more finishing angles. These movement skills are a product of his body control and you can see it in his driving counters too. He can get extremely far in the paint, despite his slighter frame, due to his explosive burst to beat defenders but it’s his deceleration and change of direction that lull defenses and allow him to get in position to finish the advantage created. The upright upper half also enables him to access more passing angles which he’ll be able to act upon more consistently as his handle develops but this is where Holland’s advantage perception comes in.

Decisions On What Hurt The Defense

Holland’s AST/USG ratio in relation to his unassisted drive volume paints a picture of a player who can carry some creation usage for his NBA team eventually. Holland’s profile steers him clear of maxing out as a pure play-finisher like Anthony Bennett, Kelly Oubre, and Kevin Knox because these players had something in common: extremely low AST/USG ratio (less than 0.3) and low self-created drive volume (less than 2 drives a game). With an AST/USG ratio of 0.58, Holland shows a decent amount of playmaking volume for a score-first wing that is 18 years old in a pro context. The 0.58 AST/USG tracks with other score-first wing-forwards like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson, Aaron Gordon, Justice Winslow, and Romeo Langford (0.49 to 0.65 AST/USG).

Watching the tape, that number matches up both in how much high-level feel he exhibits as a passer and how he sometimes can be overtly determined to score even when a passing window opens up. Some of Holland’s potential assists also get lost with AST% because it only covers passes where a teammate finished the play. These often counted as turnovers against Holland and it brought his AST/TO ratio to a smidge below 1 at 0.86.

Handling

Holland’s handle has limitations that affect his advantage perception. 61.6% (61/99) of his turnovers were specifically handle-related, caused by early shuffling on drives, not being able to slow his dribble down on some drives, or struggling with stunts and digs at his handle. 38.4% of these turnovers were passing turnovers that were due to a combination of poor ball placement/delivery and teammates not being able to catch passes on the move. Holland’s accuracy as a passer is often affected by his handle as well, throwing errant passes when he’s forced to pick up the dribble.

Holland’s feel is apparent when he doesn’t have to dribble the ball with most of his layered reads coming from a standstill.

His handle has two main issues: ball control and a lack of ambidexterity. He’s often moving quicker than his handle allows for, it’s like his handle is playing catch-up and trying to get back in a race with Holland’s athleticism. This often causes high dribbles when moving north-south, and this causes his handle to marginally mitigate his burst as the dribble does not cover as much ground as his burst does.

The other issue is that Holland is more comfortable using his right hand to finish and pass. He struggles to deliver passes or make finishes at the rim with his left hand, often using his right hand to support the ball when he’s doing this. Problem-solving for Holland becomes more complicated this way as the lack of comfort with his left causes him to access fewer passing angles and finishing angles. He often tries to find ways to finish with his right regardless and this has caused an overreliance on early gathers and windmill gathers to throw defenders off balance and gain access to a right-handed finish.

The combination of these issues also makes it difficult for Holland to gather the ball effectively into passing deliveries, struggling to lift the ball on a live dribble, especially from the left. His AST/USG ratio is mostly explained by these handle issues and it is not an issue of feel or perceiving what passes need to be made to hurt the defense. Holland’s advantage perception is high based on the tape but he is unable to leverage it consistently because of the lack of refinement in his handling and his shooting.

Shooting

The other part of perceiving advantages is deciding when your shot is the best shot to hurt defenses. Holland can take it to the rim with volume, but how does he hurt defenses with his shooting? The results from the perimeter were not great with the Ignite, where he shot 25.2%, but there is some room for optimism with his shot.

Mechanically, Holland has some work to do. He takes a deep dip, pushes his knees outward, and forms a knee valgus when organizing his shot to generate more energy into his release. This is his shooting mechanics accommodating for the strength and stability required to shoot from the NBA line. Additionally, he has inconsistent guide hand usage that causes opposite momentum to his shooting trajectory. He moves his guide hand inconsistently right before releasing, which causes extra rotations on the ball and introduces some side spin at times that causes his shot to be off the mark.

Statistically, some indicators give me confidence in his long-term shooting projection. His touch indicators inside the arc are great for an 18-year-old wing: shooting 73.7% from the free throw line, 33.3% on jumpers, and 37.5% on hooks and floaters.

What I value from Holland’s shooting profile the most is the level of confidence he takes jump shots with and the frequency he takes them considering his high drive volume. He had a 3-point rate of 22%, with high versatility where 49.4% of his shots came off the dribble. To me, this is valuable because volume and frequency when there is touch are the most important statistical indicators of shooting potential because those numbers can be a proxy for shooting comfort, confidence, and how much a coach trusts them to take that shot within the structure of their offense.

These numbers may not look eye-popping at a glance, so let me contextualize his shooting profile against other young wings and forwards that were close to Holland’s passing advantage perception (AST/USG). This should help contextualize Holland’s shot frequency and efficiency against players who similarly assisted the ball relative to their usage.

Shooting projection is complex but Holland has good indicators relative to this sample, grading out on the higher end with free throw efficiency, volume, and efficiency on non-rim attempts inside the arc, and even 3-point rate when you consider how many more rim attempts he had in his shooting profile.

Conclusion

Advantage creation is the lifeblood of NBA offenses and is critical for how efficient an offense can be. As a driver, Ron Holland stands far above his peers with the number of advantages he creates at the rim and the degree to which he puts a defense in scramble mode. His season with the Ignite shows that he can scale his production to a viable creation role in the NBA.

Overall, Ron Holland needs to be able to test defenses with his shot so that they do not go consistently under screens to guard him. With his margins as an advantage creator, the shot will mostly be a counter for his primary form of scoring at the rim. While I do not have the chance to discuss his motor and defense in this piece, these are two aspects of his games that should help him stay on the court early on as the driving advantage creation and advantage perception can be leveraged more effectively with time. The ability to leverage them improving with strength, handling, and shooting development.

His margins as an athlete and the growth he’s shown as a creator since his days in high school (Duncanville), where he played more as an energy big with short roll passing, are real signs that Holland has more upside as a creator. The pitfalls with him are that the handle and shooting may not develop to that degree, but he has a high floor as a play finisher and defender. Take into consideration that this past year was Holland’s first real year of operating as a primary ballhandler. His self-created drive numbers and baseline of advantage perception are tantalizing at his age, and it gives me confidence that Holland is on a development curve where his future NBA team can effectively utilize his creation as a secondary or tertiary valve, and in some high-end cases as a primary.

The post Advantage Creation: The Case For Ron Holland appeared first on Swish Theory.

The board below contains archetype tags, sourced from my articles for the Stepien discussing rim protectors, shotmakers, connectors and offensive engines. Also included are four custom metrics, gauged subjectively rather than statistically. Scalability is one’s ability to scale up or down in usage on either end of the court. Readiness is where on the contribution timeline a player lands. Specialness is the collective rarity of skills (or, on the flipside, commonness of other traits). Versatility is what it sounds like.

Big Board Spots 1 through 20:

Big Board Spots 21 through 40:

The post Matt Powers’ 2024 NBA Draft Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Another advantage NFL draft analysts find with the sheer volume of picks is the ability to pick up on tendencies for certain teams and GMs. One or two NFL drafts can amass a large enough sample to begin drawing conclusions. That isn’t the case for the NBA draft, as many teams end with two or fewer selections.

My inspiration for this project comes from a series created by an Indianapolis Colts beat writer by the name of Zach Hicks, who predicts the Colts’ draft choices by observing past trends for combine measurables and stats. I adore this series (and if you happen to be a Colts/NFL Draft fan reading this, you will too) and wanted to emulate it for basketball.

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s General Manager, Sam Presti, joined the franchise in 2007. He’s the longest-tenured GM in the NBA by a huge margin, becoming lionized in drafting/rebuilding circles. We have a notable sample of Presti draft picks, which can lead us to discover some of his tendencies and preferences. 

Since joining the Seattle Supersonics in 2007, Presti drafted and kept 31 players. We’ll include Lu Dort for his significance, bringing our sample to 32. That’s not nearly large enough to draw definitive conclusions but we can begin to notice trends emerging. 

To predict how the Thunder will draft going forward, I collected measurable and statistical data for each OKC draft pick. The data was collected and analyzed from a prospect’s draft season. A career ranking may result in slight changes that could make up an entirely new project. All stats are from the NBA, Barttorvik and Basketball Reference. Some stats aren’t available for certain international/non-NCAA prospects, so we’ll do the best with what we have.

After analyzing the past 15 years of draft data, these are the factors Sam Presti seems to consider most:

Wingspan: 

Presti’s wingspan has become somewhat infamous and there’s truth behind that. In his 17 years with OKC, Presti has drafted just three players with a +2 or lower height-to-wingspan differential, those being Mitch McGary (2014), Josh Giddey and Tre Mann (2021).

The Thunder weaponize their basketball condors to wreck shop on both ends of the ball. Even after some philosophy shifts over the past four or five seasons, it’s clear how much he values length in prospects, especially guards and wings. Jalen Williams (+10), Keyontae Johnson (+8), Cason Wallace (+6) and Chet Holmgren (+6) all fit the wingspan trope.

Age:

Youth is a critical indicator of star upside and general NBA success and development in the draft and Presti knows this. Prospects who break out early are more likely to be stars and great players alike. Presti has never drafted a 22+ year-old in the top 20 picks. His oldest lottery pick is Jalen Williams (21.2) and his average lottery pick is under 20.

He’s drafted only six 22+ year-olds at all, those being McGary (pick 21, 2014), Josh Huestis (29, 2014), Aaron Wiggins (54, 2021), Devon Hall (53, 2018), Keyontae Johnson (50, 2023) and Sasha Kaun (56, 2008).

As the Thunder push for titles, Presti’s philosophy could begin to shift, leaning towards older more NBA-ready prospects as evidenced by the JDub and Johnson picks. Still, we know Presti values youth, especially early and likely will continue to draft on the younger side of teams.

Productivity:

This isn’t referring to points per game specifically, but rather productivity in other manners. Most Presti picks perform well in advanced, all-in-one metrics. Of the 21 picks with available barttorvik BPM data, all but two (Hamidou Diallo, Lu Dort) posted above a +4.0 BPM.

Aside from more general metrics, Presti prospects tend to dominate statistically in at least one area, whether that be passing, shooting, rebounding or foul drawing. There will always be exceptions, but drafting good basketball players tends to pay off in the long run.

Feel: 

Whatever nebulous term we choose to define some kind of processing, court mapping and instinctual indicators will be a challenge to quantify. Presti prospects do well in assist-to-turnover and assist rate metrics, especially the guards and wings.

This is a point of philosophy shift, as the post-2019 “Rebuild Era” shifted the premium away from raw athletic tools (Diallo, Ferguson, etc) and towards smart basketball players. The average post-2019 Presti pick has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 (but a low assist rate interestingly, dragged down by bigs and Dieng).

OKC’s basketball vision relies on smart players who make quick decisions and process the floor in real-time. It’s the backbone of the roll replace offense and their aggressive defense and Presti will align with that philosophy.

Physicality: 

Physicality best manifests in stats like free-throw rate and rebounding rate which Presti prospects tend to have. Free-throw rate projects driving, finishing and creation as well as any other indicator; Thunder picks in the sample average a strong 31 free-throw rate and guards especially draw fouls prolifically.

Thunder prospects also tend to display a baseline of rebounding ability on the defensive end, indicating verticality, size and motor. Only Terrance Ferguson (4.5%), Alex Abrines (9.1%) and Russell Westbrook (8.4%) rebounded below 10% of their team’s shots during their minutes.

Shooting: 

The Rebuild era marks another shift for Presti in a slightly greater prioritization of shooting as well as feel. Since 2020, Oklahoma City’s draft picks averaged 34% on threes compared to 25.5% before 2020. They’ll still draft inefficient shooters like Giddey (29.3%), Dieng (27.1%), and Jaylin Williams (23.9%). 

For projecting shooting growth, volume is a far more reliable indicator and Presti values this now more than ever. Even if they didn’t shoot well, all recent Presti picks shot the ball, especially for bigs/taller players. In the pre-rebuild era, Presti drafted seven players with a three-point attempt rate below 10 compared to zero post-2020.

Historically, Presti’s draft picks don’t indicate a strong valuation of scoring efficiency or usage. OKC drafts all over the place in terms of true shooting and usage, anywhere from Ferguson (16.2% usage, 47% true shooting) to James Harden (32.6% usage, 60.7% true shooting.

Many scouts regard steal and block rates as important indicators of defensive potential. That isn’t a trend in Oklahoma City’s selections, as the steal (2.2%) and block (3.1%) rates hover around average.

Based on those numbers, here’s what an average Presti draft pick’s stats and measurables look like, sorted by position: 

Guards (11): 199.3 lbs, +5.3 WS differential, 20.1 years, 7.4 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 35 free throw rate, 38.2 three-point attempt rate, 14.4% defensive rebound rate

Wings (12): 206.1 lbs, +6.1 WS differential, 20.7 years, 5.7 BPM. 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, 27.8 free throw rate, 37.2 three-point attempt rate, 15.6% defensive rebound rate

Bigs (9): 238,8 lbs, +3.9 WS differential, 20.7 years, 7.6 BPM, 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, 48.2 free throw rate, 8.0 three-point attempt rate, 23% defensive rebound rate

It’s worth averaging out Presti’s picks post-2019 as well given the notable philosophy toward higher-feel players:

“Rebuild Era” (12): 202.7 lbs, +4.8 WS differential, 20.2 years, 7.2 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 29 free throw rate, 37.5 three-point attempt rate, 20.6% defensive rebound rate

Some outliers skew these averages and it’s still not a large enough sample size to feel fully confident, but these numbers provide an interesting baseline and range for Presti’s most valued prospect traits.

Based on Presti’s past drafting tendencies, who are the Thunder most likely to draft in 2024? Currently, OKC sits at 12. Presti loves trading up and down the board, so we will discuss more prospects than those likeliest to be available at 12 and some second-rounders at the end. After analyzing the data with a weight on the factors Presti values most — wingspan, age and BPM especially — I’ve come up with my best guesses at who the Thunder will value.

This is NOT my prediction for who the Thunder will draft. Presti’s philosophies have evolved and his priorities may shift, especially regarding drafting older prospects, as OKC turns to championship contention mode. I’ll provide context for each prospect as some of them will be more or less likely to be OKC picks than the data suggests.

*THE PERFECT PRESTI PROSPECTS*

Stephon Castle, Wing/Guard, UConn

Numbers to know: +3.5 WS (6’9’), 5.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 37.9 FTr, 12% DRB, 25.9 3par

On paper, Stephon Castle is the prospect I’d wager Presti covets most. He checks every box: Castle is young, impactful on a great team, and long with great statistical indicators. Presti wings tend to shoot with more volume, but that’s the only knock you can find based on historical trends.

OKC would likely have to trade up to draft Castle, who some have projected as high as two to the Wizards. Castle’s desire to play point guard might also scare the Thunder off given their abundance of ball-handling talent in the backcourt and on the wing, so he might not grade as highly for OKC as his statistical profile suggests. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade-up for Castle if he slips a bit down the board.

Donovan Clingan, Center, UConn

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’6.5), 14.1 BPM, 20.3 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 47.8 FTr, 23.4% DRB, 2.7 3par

Castle’s college teammate thrives in almost all of the same areas as him; Clingan’s production at a young age, huge wingspan and excellent statistical indicators as a passer and athletically all speak to Presti’s preferences. He hasn’t drafted a non-shooting big since Dakari Johnson in 2015 but I’d imagine he would make an exception for Clingan.

Clingan also feels like a possible trade-up candidate for the Thunder as he’s been projected as high as number one to the Hawks. Like Castle though, pushing the chips in for Clingan to pair with Chet Holmgren long-term wouldn’t shock me. It’s not a move I would love as Holmgren is best as a five and Clingan’s spacing is a concern, but the physicality and rim protection he’d add would be immense.

Kel’el Ware, Center, Indiana

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’4.5), 8.1 BPM, 20.2 y/o, 1.0 a:to, 41.9 FTr, 26.1% DRB, 12.5 3par 

Before this exercise, Ware wasn’t a prospect I expected to rank highly for Presti’s history. I haven’t seen him linked to the Thunder at all, but it makes perfect sense on deeper inspection. Ware shares all of the same profile strengths as Clingan — wingspan, BPM, youth, feel and interior goodness. Unlike Clingan, Ware spaced the floor in college to varying degrees throughout his career.

Ware likely will be on the board at 12 and the Thunder sticking and picking him makes sense based on Presti’s history and the current roster. His shooting fits more cleanly with OKC’s five-out offense than Clingan’s while maintaining similar defensive and interior scoring upside. I love this fit and think it’s one of the most likely options at 12 that most aren’t discussing.

Ja’Kobe Walter, Guard/Wing, Baylor

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’10), 4.4 BPM, 19.8 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 48.9 FTr, 12.3% DRB, 57.2 3par

If I had to submit an official guess based on Presti’s past selections for the Thunder’s pick at 12, history says it should be Walter. Like those in this tier, he’s extremely long and young with statistical indicators aligning with the data, though his BPM would be on the lower end for Presti picks. 

Lottery is too high for Walter by my evaluation, as his lack of offensive juice outside of off-ball shooting and defensive problems make for a limited ceiling. I’m not sure the Thunder would look to add another questionable playmaker off of the bounce after the Mavericks exposed some of their perimeter creation issues, though. Presti could believe in his three-and-D skillset on the wing and pick him at 12 even if he’s the least likely of the top four fits to end up on OKC to me.

*STRONG PRESTI FITS*

Ron Holland, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’10.75), 19 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 41.7 FTr, 16.2% DRB, 21.3 3par

We won’t have BPM numbers for non-NCAA prospects which adds some uncertainty for them. Holland looks like a classic Presti wing given his youth, elite athletic and physical tools statistical indicators. His shooting and assist/turnover numbers lag a bit behind most Thunder wing selections.

For myself and many others, Holland is a top-two prospect in the class and should be the pick if he falls on the principle of valuing the best talent available. There’s a strong chance he isn’t on the board at 12 but if he is, I don’t think Presti would let his slide continue.

Tyler Smith, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 19.6 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 30.5 FTr, 15% DRB, 36.3 3par

Draft analysts don’t associate Tyler Smith with the Thunder often, but his profile cleanly fits their type. Smith is young with a long wingspan, excellent shooting numbers and solid rebounding, passing and free-throw drawing stats. Selecting Smith might be likely in a trade-down scenario, but snagging him at 12 and valuing his size and spacing potential is a possible outcome for the Thunder.

Devin Carter, Guard, Providence

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’8.75), 11.4 BPM, 22.3 y/o, 1.3 a:to 37.6 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 48.2 3par

Carter’s case to be the pick at 12 fascinates me. He’d be the oldest player Presti has ever picked in the lottery but he fits every other indicator best of all prospects in the entire draft: gargantuan wingspan, insane BPM, foul drawing, passing, shooting, you name it. 

If the rumors about Chicago’s promise are true, Carter might not be an option. One could argue his skillset overlaps some with Cason Wallace, who the Thunder spent a lottery pick on last year. But if he falls to 12, my gut feeling is that Presti would draft Carter, valuing his current skillset for a Thunder team hoping to contend for titles now.

DaRon Holmes II, Center/Forward, Dayton

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 21.9 y/o, 11.5 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 72.4 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 20.8 3par

Aside from his age — Holmes would also be the oldest Presti lottery pick by almost a year — DaRon Holmes is a Thunder big. He’s functionally long and dominated college basketball as a consensus All-American, showcasing the playmaking, handling and spacing requisite of modern bigs.

Holmes profiles closest to a PJ Washington/Aaron Gordon acolyte in this draft and he seamlessly fits OKC’s roster and philosophy on both ends. A big who thrives as a perimeter handler with some interior versatility would have changed the calculus for the Thunder in the postseason. I would not be stunned if the Thunder reached for Holmes at 12. The fit is that good, even if his age would be a trend-breaker.

*POSSIBLE PRESTI GUYS*

Tidjane Salaun, Wing/Forward, Cholet

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’2), 18.9 y/o, 0.7 a:to, 27 FTr, 15.5% DRB, 53.1 3par

If Presti dips back into the raw French wing well, Salaun will probably be the pick. He’s one of the youngest players in the whole draft with an elite wingspan and well-rounded indicators. European prospects often record lower assist numbers due to stricter assist counting than American hoops, accounting for the lower assist-to-turnover ratio.

Salaun likely wouldn’t contribute much on day one, His two-way upside is immense and he’d provide a strong contingency plan on the wings for the coming seasons if Salaun ends up as the pick. 

Yves Missi, Center, Baylor

Numbers to know: +3 WS (7’2), 20.1 y/o, 5.8 BPM, 0.3 a:to, 60.4 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 0 3par

Missi performs well in many of the main Presti philosophy points: solid wingspan, youth and BPM production. His poor shooting and playmaking numbers don’t fit with Presti’s recent center picks as he seems to prioritize more “modern” perimeter-oriented bigs. As we mentioned with Clingan, Missi makes more sense at 12 if Presti wants to move towards more “traditional bigs” to add size and rebounding in the frontcourt.

Zach Edey, Center, Purdue

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’10.75), 22.3 y/o, 15.5 BPM. 0.9 a:to. 80.9 FTr, 25.5% DRB, 0.1 3par

We can draw parallels between Edey and Missi’s alignment with Presti’s history. Edey is much older than Missi with more production and similar playmaking and floor spacing hangups. The National Player of the Year’s enormous wingspan, BPM and foul-drawing numbers will all entice Presti. His size, rebounding and interior presence are tailor-made to help OKC, though I’m skeptical he’s the pick due to his age and lack of a shooting presence.

Kyle Filipowski, Forward/Center, Duke

Numbers to know: – 0.25 WS (6’10.5), 20.6 y/o, 10.1 BPM, 1.3 a:to, 38.4 FTr, 22.6% DRB, 25.7% 3par

Sam Presti drafting a prospect with a negative wingspan would feel sacrilegious. But apart from length, Kyle Filipowski is a Presti big. He’s young, extremely productive with the requisite physicality, handling and spacing potential to play on the outside. I’m skeptical Presti goes for another short-armed prospect, though Filipowski’s fit as a perimeter threat and a physical rebounder and defender are ideal if he does make an exception.

Johnny Furphy, Wing, Kansas

Numbers to know: +0.5 WS (6’8), 19.6 y/o, 5.4 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 40.3 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 60.7 3par

Like Filipowski, Furphy slots in with recent Presti selections in every way but wingspan. If the Thunder want to add a young shooting wing with size, Furphy could be one of the better options. He’s most likely in a trade down and even then I wouldn’t bank on the Thunder to value Furphy as much as other longer, even more productive wings later in the draft where age hasn’t been as paramount for Presti.

Jared McCain, Guard, Duke

Numbers to know: +1.5 WS (6’3.5), 20.4 y/o, 7.6 BPM, 1.4 a:to, 23 FTr, 15.3% DRB, 55.4 3par

Presti drafted a shorter-armed guard in 2021 in Tre Mann who isn’t on the team three years later. McCain has youth (despite being an old freshman), BPM, assist and shooting numbers as strengths and he’d fit well as an off-ball shooting, secondary pick-and-roll guard next to Shai and Jalen Williams. But in a crowded OKC backcourt, McCain’s lack of length and physicality likely would lead the Thunder elsewhere. 

Dalton Knecht, Guard, Tennessee

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’9), 9.9 BPM. 23.2 y/o, 1,1 a:to, 35.4 FTr, 14.3% DRB, 40.6 3par

Knecht would be the third 23-year-old Presti draft pick in his Thunder tenure and the first inside the top 50 picks. That makes Knecht extremely unlikely at 12, though his wingspan meets the threshold and his statistical production for the important markers impress. I don’t expect OKC to strongly consider Knecht even if his plug-and-play offensive skillset would add juice on that end.

*UNLIKELY PRESTI FITS*

Matas Buzelis, Forward/Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +1 WS (6’10), 19.7 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 28.3 FTr, 17.1% DRB, 28.8 3par

Shorter arms, poor assist and turnover numbers and limited physicality/ strength mean Buzelis doesn’t match the Thunder’s usual type. Though Presti will draft rawer tall wings like Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski, they often have outstanding statistical indicators elsewhere. Other wing options like Salaun and Holland will probably entice Presti more than Buzelis.

Tristan Da Silva, Forward/Wing, Colorado

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’10.25), 6.2 BPM, 23.1 y/o, 1,3 a:to, 25.8 FTr, 13.7% DRB, 40.5 3par

Drafting Da Silva would depart from Presti’s typical philosophy; he’s already 23 with a mediocre wingspan and extremely poor rebounding and foul-drawing numbers for his size. Da Silva’s height, shooting and playmaking skill theoretically slot in perfectly to OKC’s offensive system and Presti may value his plug-and-play value. If he was the pick at 12 or even in a trade down, Da Silva would become a massive historical outlier.

Isaiah Collier, Point Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’4.75”), 3.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.3 a:to, 49.7 FTr, 8.7% DRB, 25.5 3par

Collier has arms on the shorter side, wasn’t incredibly productive by BPM and hits below thresholds on rebounding and three-point numbers for Presti guards. As much as I adore Collier, OKC has plenty of handling guards on the roster and others in this draft fit Presti’s tendencies. 

*THE ONE BIG ASTERISK*

Cody Williams, Wing/Forward, Colorado

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (7’1), 2.9 BPM, 19.6 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 39.7 FTr, 9.2% DRB, 21.1 3par

Looking solely at historical indicators, Cody Williams performs poorly compared to most Presti selections, especially in the lottery. His low BPM especially pops out and only his free-throw rate numbers are above the Thunder’s average. 

OKC will likely throw most of this out for obvious reasons, as keeping Jalen Williams around for as long as possible would be reason enough to draft Cody. Williams’ mid-season injury materially impacted his play, as he looked less explosive and confident after returning in January. 

If not for the injury, Williams likely fares much better in the Presti formula, especially given his huge wingspan and age. Cody is probably the most likely OKC pick at 12 and it’s as good a spot as any for him to develop physically and as a shooter.

If the Thunder trade down in the draft, here are some other prospects that fit Sam Presti’s historical type:

Dillon Jones, Guard/Wing, Weber St

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’11), 7.3 BPM, 22.7 y/o, 1.7 a:to, 45.4 FTr, 31% DRB, 23.7 3par

Jonathan Mogbo, Forward/Wing/Center, San Francisco

Numbers to know: +8 WS (7’2), 10.5 BPM. 22.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 32.2 FTr, 29.6% DRB, 0.1 3par

Isaac Jones, Forward/Center, Washington St

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’3), 6.7 BPM, 23.9 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 55.8 FTr, 19% DRB, 0.8 3par

Keshad Johnson, Wing, Arizona

Numbers to know: +7 WS (6’10.25), 7.1 BPM. 23 y/o, 1.2 a:to, 37.5 FTr, 14.8% DRB, 32.6% 3par

Bronny James, Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’7.25), -0.3 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 30.4 FTr, 15.1% DRB, 53.6 3par

Trey Alexander, Guard, Creighton

Numbers to know: +7 (6’10.5), 4.7 BPM, 21.2 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 20.8 FTr, 14.6% DRB, 35.2% 3par

The post OKC Thunder Draft Retrospective appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

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