Milan Momcilovic’s absence from all mainstream mock drafts and boards perplexes me. After a freshman year where the 6’8 forward proved himself an elite shotmaker, he’s positioned well to make a run at the 2025 draft for an elite Iowa State team.

The shotmaking numbers are gaudy — 36.1% from three on 8.8 attempts per 100, a 49.9 three-point attempt rate, 80.9% on free-throws and 45.6% (68-149) on long two-pointers. The only other 6’8+ freshman to match Momcilovic’s shooting production was Lauri Markkanen.

The eye test reflects these numbers, as Momcilovic sprints off of movement from NBA range, pulls up off of the dribble and feathers in Dirk-inspired fadeaways in the intermediate. Very few shooters his height and age compare to Momcilovic. That alone is worth something in an NBA where teams regard shooting so highly.

Momcilovic’s athletic translation will be the primary question for his NBA outlook. He’s fairly slow on both ends without much explosion or bend, evidenced by his poor athletic indicators (1.0% steal rate, 20.1 free-throw rate, zero dunks). We rarely see players with physical indicators this poor make the NBA.

Despite those major problems, Momcilovic defends at a positive level in college. His footspeed might limit his effectiveness on the perimeter at the next level, but he’s a stellar team defender who always positions himself to close gaps and help at the basket. That same feel manifests on offense, as Momcilovic is an effective secondary playmaker off of his shooting gravity.

We shouldn’t let imperfect statistical history blind us to outlier talent, and that’s what Milan Monmcilovic’s shotmaking is. I’ve never scouted a freshman prospect with these kind of extreme, outlier strengths and weaknesses. I’m willing to bet on Momcilovic’s unique traits and hope for physical development as his body matures, but he’ll be a fascinating case to track throughout the season.

Matt Powers – Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Xaivian Lee needs to improve to become an NBA player, and perhaps significantly so. This is not ideal for a rising junior in a minor conference, but I believe there are reasons for trusting Lee to do just that.

First, Lee is young for his grade, as only 20 years old. This is important as he is still on the steep side of the aging curve, if not as steep as ages 18 to 19 or 19 to 20. This is also important because Lee’s biggest flaw, without a doubt, is being only 165 pounds at most recent measurement.

Adding that weight will elevate the stellar craft and technique we’ve already seen Lee display on a regular basis. It’s good he’s in the Ivy league where he has room to fully experiment despite the lack of weight, as he’s able to create large margins in which to operate with his elite shiftiness.

Lee had more drives than any of the 2023 drafted NCAA guards. While this is surely aided tremendously by the poor competition, I can defend the stat still in a few ways. 1.) The degree of outperformance, 67% higher than his peers’ averages, 2.) His performance kept up against higher comp. In fact, he even played better inside the arc (50% -> 55% from two) and nearly led the conference in RAPM versus top 100 competition. 3.) He tested very well at the G League Elite Camp, taller than expected (6’2.75” without shoes, acceptable for a point guard), among the best at agility testing and showing off a surprising 36.5” max vertical.

Now, let’s get to the actual basketball. Lee is a dribble-pass-shoot guard who also blocked more shots (14, a lot for 6’2.75”) than all of Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Rob Dillingham and KJ Simpson combined. He plays more physically than your everyday slight guard, also excelling on the defensive glass where he was second on the team in rebounds. He seems closer to a very good shooter than an elite one, with 34% from three, 80% from the line, 34% from midrange and 62% at the rim splits. But every one of those is improved from the year before, and, again, there is reason to believe he will grow beyond. The rim finishing in particular is very promising, in the 82nd percentile for layup efficiency on 11 layup attempts per 100 possessions.

Additionally, Lee’s technique is very strong. He is a weapon both on and off ball due to masterclasses (for age) of timing, footwork, deception, hand movements. His top play types showcase that, being above average efficiency in the following actions: spot up (119 possessions), PNR handler (88), handoffs (66), isolation (62), transition (55), cut (30). That’s a healthy diet you can plug and play into any offensive style. This play style flexibility is only enhanced by his sense of experimentation.

Technique, combined with age, is latent value. It is the key building block to development that Lee can rely upon time and again. Don’t be surprised if he looks like a first-round pick come December.

Beyond the RK – Jeremy Roach, Baylor

Transferring from Duke with an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to players who competed during the COVID-19 pandemic season, new Baylor guard Jeremy Roach knows how to handle the pressure when the lights shine brightest. With the Blue Devils, Roach started 83% of his 130 games over four seasons, advancing to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the 2nd round in 3 March Madness appearances, bringing the ying in experience to the Baylor backcourt to the yang of the sensational freshman walking onto campus for the first time in VJ Edgecome. With VJ expected to fly around the court as a north-south downhill force of nature out of the gates, what can Baylor fans expect from the other newcomer guard joining the squad this season?

Jeremy Roach, 6’1”, fits the strong mold of Baylor Guard Past with good two-way instincts to make winning plays on defense while staying on attack mode on offense with an efficient all-around game and good feel for running pick-and-roll and ISO sets to create open looks for himself and teammates. Jeremy uses tight ball control handles and sound quick burst body control to beat his initial defender, rise and fire for a jumper, or drive into the paint for a finish at the rim or kickout to the 3pt line. Jeremy’s lethal floater comes in handy as a deadly weapon to keep drop defenses honest when driving at the rim, using mean stop-start hesitation dribble moves, sound hop step footwork, and clean bump-and-finishing packages in the paint to draw AND1 fouls. When Roach catches a rhythm pulling up for tough elbow jumpers and 3pt shots off the dribble, he becomes hard to contain for any defense he faces.

Roach shows effort on the defensive end taking charges, reading passing lanes to jump gaps and use quick hands for deflections, and not giving up on plays by contesting shots from behind even after being beat on the perimeter. Forcing turnovers and flipping fast breaks on their head creates quick and easy 4pt swings for his team. Jeremy will lift his team for entire stretches as everyone feels his presence in every possession on both sides of the floor. In a close win over Xavier on Nov 25, 2022, Jeremy Roach took over in the clutch for Duke as the game slowed down; quieting the crowd at every turn; dominating as on-ball scoring creator; initiating P&R variations with two screeners in Horns and Double-Drag; scoring at all three levels from all over the floor; drilling tough shot after tough shot; showing supreme decision-making feel.

Roach has improved his efficiency across the board in his time in college, nearly cutting his turnover percentage in half over a four year span, with impressive development since his sophomore season, rising from a 32% 3pt shooter in Year 2 to a 43% 3pt shooter on the same number of attempts in Year 4. His overall impact has risen from 0-1 BPM in his first two years to 3.1 BPM as a junior and 7.2 BPM as a senior, with a huge jump on the offensive side to 4.5 OBPM, most likely due to increasing overall efficiency, reducing turnovers, and getting to the line more often.

In his 2023-24 season at Duke, Roach took 32% of his shots at the rim, converting 58% of his 113 FGA in that range. Able to get his shot off from anywhere on the floor, Jeremy spreads his shot attempts out evenly with 33% being 2pt jumpers (116 FGA) and 36% coming from beyond the arc. (126 3PA) Shooting 84% FT% at the line, 43% 3P% from deep, and 59% TS% as a scorer, Roach brings efficient scoring versatility.

Between his smooth floater, efficient shooting at the line and from beyond the arc, defensive instincts, offensive feel, and overall efficient scoring versatility, Jeremy Roach shows many promising touch indicators for future scoring and shooting development while flashing potential two-way impact that could translate to his upcoming final season in college and help him pave a path to the next level, the NBA.

Roshan Potluri – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

I can understand, you’re probably wondering, “I’ve seen him on a couple of mainstream boards where he’s in the late lottery range. Why is Collin Murray-Boyles in a roundtable on the most underrated returners for the 2025 draft class?” Even with the pre-season hype around the sophomore, I believe he is underrated because he should firmly be in the discussion in the top 5 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at why:

Murray-Boyles had an extremely productive season in his first year with the South Carolina Gamecocks, especially for someone who will be 20.03 on draft day: mere months older than incoming freshmen V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Statistically, the production was eye-popping. He was only involved in 45.7% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor, yet he posted a BPM of +9.5 and a RAPM of +6.1 which are high for a freshman. Standing at 6’7″, he is undersized as a center. Despite this, he produced a 61.6 TS%, 12.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 17.1 AST%, and over 20 dunks for the season. Murray-Boyles may be undersized, but he functionally produced on the court to a degree that compares to other high-profile 7-foot freshmen like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, Evan Mobley, and Karl Anthony Towns.

Another example of his statistical excellence: the only freshmen since 2008 to ever record above a 5 BPM, 60 TS%, 15 DREB%, 10 AST%, 2 STL%, and 20 dunks are Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

While the production speaks for itself, what does Collin Murray-Boyles truly excel at and why is that worth a potential top 5 selection? The answer lies in his dominant processing on both sides of the ball.

With his feel, high-level strength, balance, and hand-eye coordination, Murray-Boyles brings tenacious defense at the rim and guarding out in space. He’s able to take away a ballhandler’s breathing space with his combination of stifling length, strength, and ground coverage. Murray-Boyles excels as a rim protector, leveraging his massive standing reach and outstanding hand-eye coordination to effortlessly erase shots at the rim. Whether it’s as the primary anchor or rotating over from the weak side, his presence as the rim is undeniable.

The quick decision-making is apparent on the offensive side of the ball as well. He’s able to spray passes to find advantage situations whether it is out of post-ups or DHOs. Oftentimes, he’s able to open up new scoring opportunities just due to the incredible speed and placement that he delivers these passes with. Murray-Boyles does have his flaws with his shot and his size as a big but he has the pathways to become more of a ballhandler and scale as a forward offensively. His potential as a ballhandler is evident in the high school film, although he’s more reliant on getting to his left as a driver. He struggles with ball control and pick-up points when using his right, but his exceptional strength allows him to carve space on drives, compensating when his handle falls short.

The major question with Murray-Boyles’ NBA projection is his shot. I understand the hesitancy, as he’s only shot five 3’s and 67.4% from the charity stripe in his freshman year. While these numbers are poor, from a projection standpoint Murray-Boyles has improved on his touch numbers year over year and has had more shooting volume in his high school career. For context, he shot 51% from the line at Adidas 3SSB in 2022, 63.2% at Wasatch Academy his senior year, and now in college, that number has risen to 67.4%. He shows great touch on non-rim 2 attempts as well, shooting 41.3% with the Gamecocks. The high school and AAU sample only supplements this idea, shooting 53.5% on 28 runners and hooks the year before college. On tape, there’s good energy transfer and fluidity in the mechanics of his face-up jumpers which is a wide majority of his shooting sample in high school. For a player that’s considered a non-shooting big, Murray-Boyles has taken a moderate number of midrange jumpers between his senior year of high school and final year of AAU shooting 50% inside the arc on 22 attempts.

The complete lack of these jumpers within and beyond the arc at South Carolina can be attributed to his role as a screen and roll big. Murray-Boyles needs to work on improving his volume and touch further, but the growth over the past couple of years in tandem with his impressive hand-eye coordination gives me confidence that he can get to a respectable level by the end of his rookie scale deal in the NBA. 

Overall, Murray-Boyles can be an upper-echelon defender in the NBA with his physical traits and feel, showing signs even as an 18-year-old where he would orchestrate South Carolina’s entire defense from the backline. With his sophomore year at South Carolina, his draft stock will be determined by how his budding offensive skills improve, but with what he’s done so far and his feel for the game, I have no reason to believe he can’t reach those heights in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Larry Golden – Kam Jones, Marquette

In the NBA, the game forever evolves due to teams changing playstyles and other teams trying to copy what the successful teams are doing. In order for teams to meet their most potential they must find players to perform well in different roles pertaining to their team. The key is finding players in the draft that can come in and fit right into certain roles and maybe their skill level allows for a multitude of roles. Kam jones is a player in this upcoming draft that I believe can come into the NBA and make things happen because of his utility both on the ball and off.

Last season Kam Jones shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 239 attempts and 109 of those were off the catch making those at 39.4% clip. His shooting is what will make his life easier in the league while drawing closeouts and getting two-feet in the painted area. When watching Jones play he has a good feel for making the next right connective passing read. When the defense failed to make a rotation or if the rotator was a bit late, Jones made them pay finishing at the rim at a 67% clip. I was a little underwhelmed with his percentage from the mid range area(, but in the nba threes and layups are the goal and he made both of those at a great rate.

Secondary ballhander is the role I really see for Jones at the NBA level who can take on some pick and roll reps on the second side of the floor. Jones was used in pick and roll 43% of his usage and ranked in the 85th percentile. His combination of handle and size for the position allows for him to see the floor a bit better and the handle is tight enough to squeeze through congested spots on the floor.

AJ Carter – Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama

Clifford Omoruyi has been well established as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, anchoring a Rutgers defense that has been top 25 in the country each of the past two years before transferring to Alabama this offseason for his 5th year of college. He’s a classic backline rim protector with good length (6’9 barefoot, 7’6 wingspan), athleticism, and a lean but well built frame that can hold up against physicality. 

Omoruyi uses these physical tools to dominate around the rim defensively, finishing 3rd in the country in block percentage at 12.7% last season (via KenPom). He can occasionally get himself in foul trouble but is for the most part fundamentally sound defensively, prioritizing being in the right position over chasing blocks. Omoruyi is also a very capable P&R defender, having both backline rim protection ability with enough agility to cover ground when asked to play more aggressively. He isn’t what you would classify as a “switch big” but generally holds up well enough when defending in space to not get exploited and has shown flashes defending on an island against smaller guards. Omoruyi is also capable of finishing off possessions as a defensive rebounder, posting a strong DRB% of 23.7% for his college career. 

As good as he is defensively, Cliff’s lack of versatility on the offensive end is what has prevented him from getting serious hype as a draft prospect thus far. He can score around the rim at an adequate level, but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He isn’t a threat to score outside the paint and lacks touch on floaters or push shots. Omoruyi also has a paltry 0.4 AST/TO ratio for his career, and hasn’t really shown any progress in that department across his 4 years in college. It’s worth noting that Rutgers has been mostly abysmal offensively for Omoruyi’s career there, and play finishing centers like him are particularly context dependent, often needing to play off of strong creators to be effective – something Rutgers has sorely lacked. 

There’s a little room for hope that Cliff can show more progress playing in what should easily be the best offensive context of his career at Alabama this season, but for the most part we already know what he is – and there’s nothing wrong with that. The offensive limitations put a cap on the ceiling of what type of NBA prospect he can be, but he’s such a good defensive anchor that the bar he has to reach on the other end is pretty low. With just a little bit of improvement to his skillset you can see the pathway to him being a useful NBA backup center, making Cliff Omoruyi someone worth monitoring as a prospect this season. 

Tyler Wilson – KJ Lewis, Arizona

KJ Lewis is a slashing guard built for playoff basketball. In an NBA that seems to grow taller and shoot better with every summer, the words “slashing guard” and “playoff basketball” don’t feel like they belong in the same sentence. Slashing guard? You couldn’t find a wing who can shoot? Range, in both wingspan and scoring threat, has become the conventional draft ethos of the modern day. With that said, might I interest you in a Strong Safety instead?

The sell with KJ begins at his defensive impact. He is listed at 6’4 210 and plays like a moving fire hydrant. There is a Naismithian quality to his game that is undeniable, an intersection of strength and agility that resembles an NFL defensive back more than a two guard. He is able to stand up forwards in the post while smothering smaller guards on the perimeter. The ability to remain strong while sliding around the court is a skill in itself. His feel as a help defender and comfortability in switches was great. Outside of occasional bouts with over-physicality, it was hard to come away with anything substantively negative to say on the defensive side of the ball. KJ was an incredibly effective defensive player as a freshman, in a high major conference, at 19 years old.

In recent years, the going has gotten tough in the National Basketball Association for defense-first guards. The threshold of NBA quality offense has grown so incredibly high that it has become nearly impossible to survive if you are not a credible threat to score the basketball. Lewis’ freshman year usage rate of 16.4 is incredibly low for a potential NBA prospect, particularly a guard. The fact he was a relative non-threat from beyond the arc (34% on 3.4 attempts per 100) does not help matters. The path towards NBA minutes as a low usage non-shooting shooting guard is incredibly thin.

While Lewis did not threaten defenses as a shooter last year at Arizona, there is genuine reason for optimism. He shot 79% from the line in college and despite uninspiring numbers around the rim and in the midrange, his tape going back to Duncanville and the 3SSB circuit shows real touch around the rim with flashes of a functional jumper off the dribble. Shot development is an imperfect and unpredictable science, but the foundation is there for steady growth over time.

As a slasher, Lewis’ athleticism shines yet again with the ability to blow by defenders, take bumps and finish through contact. With an unrefined handle, he was best attacking in a straight line or out of an advantage as a freshman, but his coordination and athleticism allow for a long developmental runway as a creator. KJ was a wrecking ball downhill in high school, and on an Arizona roster that lost nearly all of their starters (sans the immortal Caleb Love) there should be more room for him to explore the studio space as a driver. 

What makes KJ Lewis such an intriguing prospect is his combination of athleticism and feel. That, my friends, buried at the very end of my monologue, is the key to Lewis’ pitch as a prospect. He anticipates actions on defense, acts with decisiveness, takes care of the ball, and reads the floor well as a passer, all while being the best athlete on the court. He is versatile not only in his physical capabilities, but his ability to make quick decisions while playing a physically versatile role. As a freshman, we saw that manifest primarily on the defensive end of the floor, but it is exactly what makes the gamble on his offensive upside so appealing. 

Ahmed Jama – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Despite a late cycle surge onto draft boards this past cycle, 6’6 Colorado State wing Nique Clifford surprised many by returning to school for his 5th and final season of college basketball. Riding the wave of an impressive tournament showing, Clifford was given as good a chance as any veteran college player to work his way into serious draft consideration in a draft class mired in uncertainty. In an attempt to reverse engineer Clifford’s decision to return in lieu of remaining in the draft, I referenced Barttorvik.com to find statistical comparisons to Clifford’s previous season. In Bart Torvik’s 17 season database, Clifford is one of three players to fulfill the statistical query of Defensive Rebounding% ≥ 20; Assist/Turnover Ratio ≥ 1.5; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 2; 3PA/100 Possessions ≥ 5; Dunks made ≥ 20. The other two players being TCU’s (now Oklahoma City Thunder) Kenrich Williams and former New Mexico State Aggie Johnny McCants. Unsurprisingly all three players performed nebulous roles, as undersized bigs. The statistical company Clifford keeps is pertinent to his decision to return, because in my opinion, Clifford and his camp recognized unorthodoxy, in NBA decision maker’s eyes, is synonymous with risk. Whether or not this calculation was correct, returning to college has positioned Clifford as one of the best prospects in the country this season. 

Clifford’s unique brand of production is, in my opinion, a byproduct of his high school career, where he played as an undersized big. Despite Clifford measuring at only an 8’6 standing reach at the NBA Combine, the same as 2024 draft entrees Stephon Castle and AJ Johnson, Clifford ranked 45th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. This relentlessness on the glass was made possible by Clifford’s dynamic leaping ability, and more specifically his minimal load time on jumps. Clifford’s exceptional leaping ability, paired with his timing crashing the glass, allows him to contribute as a rebounder in a way virtually no other players his size are. While Clifford’s offensive rebounding rate of 4.5% is comparatively underwhelming, I believe this is a byproduct of Colorado State’s emphasis on limiting opponent transition opportunities at the cost of offensive rebounds. While they ranked 120th in defensive rebounding rate in the country, Colorado State was 302nd in offensive rebounding rate. Clifford’s internal clock as a rebounder manifests as a defender as well, where he’s able to fill a variety of roles, from hounding smaller players at the point-of-attack, chasing shooters off off-ball screens, and making long rotations as a backline defender and providing supplementary rim protection. 

As much confidence as Clifford’s unique basketball background and athletic traits give me, ultimately for a player his size to succeed in the NBA his shot will need to develop into a reliable skill. Clifford logged a pedestrian (relative to his position) 6 3PA/100 possessions this past season. However, his underlying shooting numbers provide reason for optimism. On 82 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts Clifford shot 41.5%, and his solid 38% on pull-up two’s only further substantiates Clifford’s potential as a reliable floor-spacer. Additionally, Colorado State’s playstyle elucidates Clifford’s underwhelming 3-point volume. As effective as Colorado State’s offense was with its given talent (61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart torvik), its identity was almost entirely defined by motion heavy Princeton concepts, and this scheme in my opinion came at the cost of spot-up 3 attempts. Playing in almost exclusively 5-out alignments, a vacated paint enabled CSU to finish as perhaps the best cutting team in the country (95th percentile in cutting volume and 99th percentile in cutting efficiency per Synergy). Comparatively Colorado State finished in the 69th percentile in catch-and-shoot frequency. What makes Princeton offenses so reliable is how their concepts allow teams to generate efficient offense often in lieu of traditional ‘advantage creator’, however this emphasis on movement and a ‘creation by committee’ approach can come at the cost of clean catch-and-shoot attempts. And when Clifford’s role specifically is taken into consideration, he often is CSU’s most consistent line-breaking threat as a cutter and ballhandler. 

All in all, Clifford’s previous production, when contextualized with his basketball past and current college role, paint the picture of a player capable of rapidly calibrating his game to fit an NBA role. With Colorado State graduating their top scorer and highest usage player from this past season, Isaiah Stevens, Nique Clifford is poised to cement himself as a need-to-know prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

Stewart Zahn – Grant Nelson, Alabama

Arriving in Alabama via transfer last season, Grant Nelson carried a fair amount of hype with him from NDSU, where he was not only highly productive but also showcased alluring skill and athleticism. With a talented cast of teammates in Tuscaloosa, Nelson took on an entirely different role with the Tide, a role that only further highlighted his versatility. 

No longer a Bison and one of the immediate primary offensive options, Nelson adapted very well to a more supplementary role with Alabama (to be fair, a very well-spaced context). The profile of Nelson’s individual scoring opportunities drastically changed, with his post-up and isolation frequencies slashed (21.1% of opportunities to 5.3%, and 15.6% to almost nothing – 2.2% respectively). To his credit, Grant took it in stride and committed to his role, shifting his focus onto the more off-ball aspects of his position, such as spot-ups, screening/rolling, cuts and transition. In a fast-paced environment like Alabama, Nelson nearly doubled his transition frequency, and Coach Nate Oats even allowed him to run some PnR’s and DHO’s throughout the season. The ball-handling and passing both seem to clear his positional thresholds. Playing large amounts of minutes at center, while not his traditional position, Nelson displayed great technique as a roller. His rolls were fluid, his slips were quick and timely, and his PnP game was a crucial element to Alabama’s patented play-style and spacing. All of this is to say that Nelson’s game appears to have great malleability to provide whatever a team may need from their forward. 

Nelson’s efficiency in most play-types is quite good, with one exception: the 3-point shot. Even as a career 75% free throw shooter (81% last season) with a decent stroke, Nelson has yet to solidify himself as threatening perimeter shooter. Capable, with just enough volume to be respected, Nelson still has plenty of work to do to iron out his shot and turn it into a real weapon. Attacking closeouts is definitely in his wheelhouse as a ball-handler, and a proficient or even average shot from the outside would really open up the court to his driving ability. He even dabbled in some pull-up shooting out of PnR’s, and while the results weren’t great, he would make the correct read to shoot it, and that was encouraging to see.

Defensively, Nelson again was playing out of position for much of the year. It was necessary for Alabama to have their most potent offensive lineup, and Grant held his own on the other end. Undersized as an NBA center (and not what he will be asked to do at the next level), Nelson did exhibit pretty good understanding of positioning himself in relation to the roller. When covering PnP’s, Nelson’s mobility allowed him to get out to the perimeter for worthwhile contests. As the primary rim protector a lot of the time, the awareness, anticipation and reactivity Nelson demonstrated was pretty compelling, and he would use his length and timing to finish the job with a block. That should translate well to his more suitable position as a forward and thus a weakside rim protector, potentially contributing with some additional opposition at the rim. Also a serviceable perimeter defender for his position, Nelson checks a lot of boxes defensively. On top of all that, Grant was hard-nosed as a rebounder all year, and he earned himself Coach Oat’s Hard-Hat award ten times, tied for the most on the team. 

While his stats reflect a quieter year than at NDSU, Nelson proved himself a multi-faceted player at Alabama, with room to improve particularly as a shooter, which would have an amplified effect on the rest of his game. He will be striving to validate last season, and he will have the chance to encompass and maybe even shed the “underrated”  tag throughout the Draft cycle.

Avinash Chauhan – Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Motiejus Krivas is a big dude with some serious skill. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him dominating college basketball in the near future.

Let’s start with the bad: Krivas could very well be at the horrific intersection of non-shooting poor finisher and limited defensive upside. He shot a middling 58% at the rim last year, and more worryingly, lineups with Krivas at the 5 consistently scored worse at the rim than with the starter, Oumar Ballo. Arizona shot 4% worse at the rim with Krivas on the floor, and of Arizona’s 5 most common lineups, the two with Krivas fared by far the worst at the rim. Part of this swing is that he was backing up a pretty monstrous rim finisher in Ballo, but it’s pretty inexcusable that Arizona shot just 54% at the rim with Krivas on the floor. He may also appear to be low feel, averaging a whopping 6.1 fouls per 40 with a measly 4% assist rate, he took zero threes on the season, and perhaps worst of all, he garnered just a 3.4% block rate in 20 conference games. If you’re a non-spacer who does not contribute to positive rim scoring, you foul incessantly, and you’re unable to effectively pass or shoot OR protect the rim, what exactly are you doing on the floor?

But while we have 439 minutes of Krivas’s NCAA sample, we also have a 637 minute sample at FIBA U19/U18 Euros/U20 Euros, and 1000 minutes playing for Lithuania’s Zalgiris. Krivas wasn’t terrible in NCAA by any stretch, with a respectable 3.4 BPM in 36 games and an overall 4.5 lineup net rating across all competition. But Krivas was genuinely ridiculous in a number of important international events, and it would be foolish to throw away all the data we have for a low minutes NCAA single season sample.

Let’s talk about the shooting. It sounds pretty insane to say this about a guy who attempted ZERO threes in the NCAA season, but Krivas seems like a decent bet to get some threes up this year. First off, Krivas actually has a decent track record of 3P shooting volume in the past: he’s averaging about 1 3PA/40 across 28 FIBA games, and he put up 61 threes across his final two seasons in Lithuania. Now for the fun stuff: Krivas is a ridiculously good free throw shooter with notable volume (especially considering he is a FT drawing machine). He shot 73% FT in his final season in Lithuania (139/191), 70% at FIBA (78/112), and he’s coming off a 78% FT season at Arizona (49/63). What’s more impressive is that Krivas has progressively become a bit of a touch god around the rim, with a strong diet of runners and hooks sprinkled throughout heavy post up usage. Across his FIBA U20 tourney this summer + Arizona, a whopping 17% of his total shots have come on hooks, making them on a staggering 58% (18/31). Bart has him at 13/29 on long 2s at Arizona.

To reiterate, we’re talking about a 7’2 mf who was putting up 3s in Europe as a teenager, is pushing the high 70s FT on extremely great volume, and has the proclivity to take and make hooks at a high rate. And he’s still technically a teenager. Again, it’s never a great idea to bet on a guy who literally took no 3s in an NCAA season. But shooting dev seems uniquely feasible for this particular case.

Personally, I don’t care too much if he shoots or not, since he’s also an absolutely insane rebounder. Krivas is coming off a 14.7% OREB/22.8% DREB season in NCAA: there have been only 9 drafted players since 2008 to match those numbers across their career. It gets crazier: Krivas averages the most rebounds per 40 in the TWENTY EIGHT YEAR HISTORY of the U18 Euros (10+ mpg). His 21.8 rebounds per 40 is well ahead of 2nd place Enes Freedom (20.2), with Usman Garuba (18.6) and Marc Gasol (17.7) not too far behind. Again, pretty much every good Euro prospect has played in the U18 Euros, including so many notable bigs since 1996. It is an absolutely huge deal that he is the most productive rebounder on a minute basis in the entirety of available data for this tournament. 

He has similarly crushed the U20 Euros and Lithuania Pro League: he put up an unreal 19% OREB and 28% DREB across 48 games of LKL+NKL. He isn’t a Zach Edey/DeJuan Blair level rebounding prospect given the lower comp level, but Krivas really isn’t THAT far off. Throw on his massive 7’5 wingspan, and Krivas is pretty easily the best rebounding prospect in the class if he declares, and should be one of the best rebounders in the league from day 1.

Rebounding is often a measure of physicality, but in Krivas’ case, I think it’s a unique look at his unreal anticipation and impressive feel for the game. Again, his 4.2% assist/1.4% steal/6.1 FC may seem horrifying, but make no mistake: Krivas has a legitimately great feel for the game. This is a guy who has shown a history of racking up steals at a pretty great rate for his size: across ~ 100 Lithuanian league games, he was above 2% steal. He averaged ~ 1.5 steals/40 across all FIBA tourneys. Much of this is just being at the right place at the time: he’s able to anticipate reads through gaps and use his length to make easy pickoffs. But he’s also a legit great passer. He can make pretty solid reads out of the post, though he can be overambitious and thereby turnover prone (>17% TO in 100 NKL/LKL games).

But his passing feel is especially demonstrated through his FIBA numbers. Despite a middling 0.7 A:TO in FIBA and 4% assist rate in NCAA, Krivas has put up 12.5% assist, 20.4% assist, and 14.2% assist in his last 3 FIBA stretches. And before you question the value of FIBA Euros in ascertaining playmaking upside, consider an all time passing development case in Domantas Sabonis, who was a complete non passer in all NCAA and European pro league games but had a 7 game stretch where he was a productive primary initiator for Lithuania’s FIBA U18 team. With a consistent steal and assist track record, coupled with his sheer size and length, Krivas has a pretty cool combination of tools and feel that could lead to seemingly unexpected offensive development.

The list of strengths is getting a bit ridiculous. This is a dude who can rebound at an Edey-lite level, potentially shoot, generate steals and assists, and has one of the strongest FIBA production profiles ever. After all, he was 35 PER at U18 Euros, 35 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney), and 37.6 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney). 

It’s probably important to reiterate that Mr. Krivas is a 7’2 individual with a giant 7’5 WS. I once wrote about the history of underclassmen who measured at the NBA combine with a WS over 7’4 WS. It is an insane list with an insane hit rate. Oh, and he might sound like an uber slow Euro big with painful verticality and terrible lateral movement. Well the verticality is probably true, but Krivas legitimately moves very well. In fact, he measured at 3.55 s for the sprint and 11.88 for the agility drill, which was significantly better than his peer Aday Mara (4.04 and 12.81, respectively) and somewhat comparable to Pacome Dadiet (3.47 and 12.29) and Salaun (3.63 and 11.84). This is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison, since Dadiet and Salaun are definitely faster and prolly just didn’t know how to game the system effectively (hence their massive leaps at the combine), but their relative closeness to Krivas still underscores how well he can move. With his incredible wingspan, solid movement for size, and strong feel (adept steal and pass generator), Krivas theoretically shouldn’t be much of a defensive liability. In fact, most of his positive net rating was via defense: Arizona’s defense was 6.4 points better/100 possessions with Krivas on the court, and 7.7 p/100 against t100 comp. Much of this was through his rebounding goodness: opposing teams rebounded 3.3% worse and shot 3% worse at the rim with Krivas on the court. 

Herein lies the issue: Krivas had an undeniably positive effect on defense this past year, but most of that came from mitigating second chance points and less from actually blocking shots. Despite his 7’5 WS, he measured with a paltry 22 inch standing vert that would be amongst the lowest in the NBA. He clocked a pedestrian 12.9% HC dunk rate, and had just a 4% block rate this year. He’s definitely a physical player capable of backing down guys in the post en route to a heavy postup diet, and he’s put up ~ 50 FTr in nearly every context; but the lack of verticality is somewhat of a stifler. I think it’s fair to project a bit of improvement: he was hovering above 6% block in Lithuania, and he’s averaged a whopping 4 blocks per 40 (~10% block) across 14 FIBA games in the last two years. I am well aware that the NCAA and NBA are far different than FIBA tourneys (where bigs are much more prone to dominate given the differential rules) and Lithuania (LKL and NKL have “grown men” but its a pretty weak league generally). It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but is it not fair to project some improvements for one of the most productive youth FIBA careers we’ve ever seen?

Not every latent strength has to actualize for Krivas to return legit NBA value. European bigs tend to be a bit of a mystery box, even when we have significant track records for them in various youth simulacrums. The common thread does seem to be rebounding: from Sabonis, Mirotic, and Gasol to Freedom, Zubac, and Vucevic, there are tons of elite rebounding/productive Euro centers that found a role (because of their feel, productivity, and outlier rebounding). We know Krivas is productive, we know he’s going to bring immediate offensive and defensive value with his rebounding, and we know that he has exceptional length, agility, and feel for position. But what’s stopping him from reaching the path of these European contemporaries?  Is path to being a quasi-Vucevic possible for Krivas, especially since Vuc has a similar WS? Can he be a Nikola Mirotic type? If he stays in school a year or two more, can he emerge as a virtuoso passer on par with Sabonis and Gasol? Or will he never really put it together and have a Garuba type career? 

I think there’s some very conceivable flaws with Krivas, some that he may never be able to overcome. But I think we’re also completely undermining a sneaky upside tail, one that may be particularly manifestable given the departure of starter Oumar Ballo. 7’5 wingspans do not grow on trees, nor do prospects with long ass wingspans have the feel or outlier rebounding or historic production profile of Krivas. One of the greatest producers in FIBA youth history is potentially eligible for the draft, and it’s about time he’s given his due credit.

The post Roundtable: Underrated Returners appeared first on Swish Theory.

This piece is for Remembering Some Guys, players who shaped our interest in the sport. Players here spark possibilities, whether through unrealistic pathways or unusual playing styles. Sometimes it’s important to sit back and cherish.

Emiliano – Jonathon Simmons

A barber impacted my vision of basketball.

It sounds weird, right?

Jonathon Simmons‘ story is an example of perseverance. After a vagabond collegiate career ended with Houston, being talented in haircutting, he considered attending barber school and getting a barber license. But he gave basketball a last shot and paid the $150 fee to attend the Austin Toros’ local tryout. He shined among the 60 participants and from there started the rise that brought him onto an NBA court after two seasons in the then D-League.

There’s a particular Regular Season game that stuck with me and made me realize how great his journey was: the Spurs win at the Oracle Arena on the 2016-17 opening night. Simmons had 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists and put his explosiveness on full display. I vividly remember his LeBron-esque chase-down block on Stephen Curry in transition and the poster on JaVale McGee with 5 seconds left, his autograph on the game. He clearly was never a prodigious player but he was a spark of energy and athleticism for an aging team like those Spurs.

Jonathon Simmons was probably the first player that made me realize the game isn’t just about the brighter stars, he made me appreciate the G League, its stories of success, and the guys that are trying to overcome difficulties and beat the odds. The NBA and sports in general (especially in the past) have accustomed us to a superheroic narration of players but even a barber can change things.

Charlie Cummings – Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

The artist formerly known as Chris Jackson is a trendsetter across multiple sports, and you may have never even heard of him.

His on-the-floor impact was secondary to his off-the-floor exploits. After beginning his career in the NBA, Jackson converted to Islam and changed his name to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf a la Lew Alcindor/Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. This was the first big public step he made in a profoundly impactful life outside of just playing basketball.

Abdul-Rauf was the first player in the NBA to protest the National Anthem, refusing to participate in what he believed was oppressive behavior and choosing to instead recite an Islamic prayer during the anthem. For his courage, the NBA fined and suspended him, and effectively blackmailed him into stopping this very peaceful protest. It’s a conveniently forgotten instance of the league, which now openly embraces such protests, putting down a man for what he believed in. Considering what we know now, was he so wrong to say he felt oppressed just by the sight of the United States flag?

His public stances earned him nothing but ire from the public. Not only did his employer actively disagree and try to shut him down, but local radio jockeys in Denver went into a mosque and blared the Star-Spangled Banner (trash song, does not bang) as a retort to Mahmoud. After his career ended, MAR moved back to his home in Mississippi. After a time, his home was burned down in what was ruled an arson. Though suspects were not formally charged, KKK graffiti painted on the house previous to the burning strongly points to a culprit. In a stunning turn of events, the Mississippi police did not prosecute themselves in favor of a Black Islamic man. Yet he never relented in his convictions. Very few people would refuse to fold in the face of such danger and criticism, but Mahmoud did.

Though certainly not a footnote, Abdul-Rauf also openly struggled with Tourette’s Syndrome. Not only did he take his diagnosis in stride, he said it empowered him to be better. A truly inspirational human being in every sense of the word.

On the floor, the man was flat-out dynamic. For a time he was one of the most electric offensive players in the league, with blinding speed and a lethal pull-up jumper. Proto-Steph Curry comparisons have been drawn, and they are reasonable when you see the hell he put Michael Jordan through (yes, that Michael Jordan) trying to keep pace:

If Mahmoud had played in an era of increased offensive spacing and encouragement to shoot from deep, who knows how high his star would have risen? But regardless of hypotheticals, in this house, we acknowledge Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf as one of the most important players of all time.

Now, go watch Stand.

Corban Ford – Monta Ellis

Just over a decade ago, on the afternoon of December 29th, 2012, one man stood in front of assembled cameras pre-game, and not only boldly compared himself favorably to an arguable top-5 shooting guard of all time, but then cemented his comments by informing the captive media audience that, aside from a few little championship rings and a couple of scoring titles, it was really he who “have it all”.

Folks made fun of that line almost the minute it left that player’s mouth, and it only got worse late that year in the playoffs, when his Milwaukee Bucks were swept with ruthless efficiency by the Miami Heat, behind Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, (that shooting guard that sparked the comparison in the first place) and Chris Bosh. Suffice it to say it didn’t age well. Say “have it all” to a person who knows NBA history and they will probably offer a chuckle. Say it to me and I will know you mean the great Monta Ellis without a moment’s hesitation. And I won’t think it’s a laughing matter.

Sure, the lack of all-star appearances and championships don’t look super great in retrospect, and sure, maybe he was more a “top 10 shooting guard of the 2010s” than he was “top 10 shooting guard ever”, but Monta Ellis to me epitomized what it means to play basketball your style and lay it all out there, warts and all, unapologetically (setting the stage for my Russell Westbrook love later), while also being confident enough (and maybe even slightly delusional enough) to strut your stuff and put your game right up against anyone’s.

With that being said, Ellis was no scrub. The man has career averages of 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists over nearly 850 games. He was a key component of the 2007 “We Believe” Warriors squad, he had a fun season suited up alongside Brandon Jennings with the Milwaukee Bucks, and he also had some memorable years assuming the primary scoring option responsibility alongside an aging Dirk Nowitzki on some fun Dallas Mavericks units in 2014 and 2015. He was electric in transition, could get hot from mid-range (and occasionally from deep), and did just enough playmaking that you could run him at the point and not feel horrible about your offense’s prospects.

Yes, Ellis wasn’t the best shooter from long range (career 31% from three). Defense was…well let’s just say it was a word Ellis knew, and he lost his fastball very quickly once he left Dallas as his nuclear athleticism faded. Also no, he was in fact no Dwyane Wade, not in 2012 or in the years following. He doesn’t have a hall of fame resume, and it’s easy to down his efficiency numbers and lack of playoff success. I don’t care. Ellis showed me that basketball can be played in a different way than the consensus might suggest, and that is fine. This wonderful game is big enough for all styles to fit in. And yes, in my opinion, Monta really did have it all. And that, my friends, is good enough for me.

@BeyondTheRK – Mickael Pietrus

Who is the greatest role player in Orlando Magic history?

Guarding Kobe Bryant in the NBA Finals after singlehandedly outscoring LeBron’s Cavs’ bench 83-66 for an entire playoff series, Mickael Pietrus was the ideal role player for that 2009 Orlando Magic team, solidifying D&3 on the wing coveted by Head Coach Stan Van Gundy and General Manager Otis Smith around the unstoppable Hedo Turkoglu – Dwight Howard pick and roll with Richard Lewis lurking beyond the arc and Jameer Nelson getting his buckets in between.

Pietrus’s profound perimeter defense, high-volume three-point floor spacing, and dynamic rim-attacking dribble drive dunking ability brought clean balance to the two-way force of the rotation.


Mickael offered strong, smart wing defense with length, quickness, and timing to help him guard any position 1-3 and even some small fours, the ability to knock down an open three on the other end, and enough handle to create a little wiggle room on his own.

Air France showed up on the biggest stage.

Against Kobe’s Lakers in the NBA Finals, Pietrus guarded Bryant tight, making the game slightly tougher than normal, contesting tough jumper after tough jumper.

When the Magic beat the Lakers in Game 3, Mickael Pietrus combined with Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Dwight Howard to score 78 PTS on 63% FG%, setting the NBA Finals FG% record at the time for a half as a team (75% FG%) in Orlando’s first individual NBA Finals game victory in the team’s franchise history.

Against LeBron’s Cavs, Pietrus outscored the entire Cleveland bench himself over an entire playoff series 83-66! Over those six games, Mickael launched six threes a game, posted a super efficient 51-47-75 shooting line, finished paint-and-spray kickout good ball movement opportunities off Dwight post-ups and Hedo/Rafer drive and kicks in pick and roll, specializing on the three balls, corner pocket.

Pietrus quickly won over Magic fans by making life difficult for the opposing team’s best players, throwing down high-flying highlight jams while contesting Kobe in the Finals and splashing in threes against Paul Pierce’s Celtics and LeBron James’ Cavs for epic photo opportunities on Orlando’s route to the Finals, featuring my phone background for most of high school:

A rookie 11th pick drafted to fill an immediate role, Courtney Lee won the starting 2-guard job during that 2009 Finals run, bringing good feel, coachability, and fundamentally sound two-way team-first play, someone who could pick up opposing guards and hit catch and shoot threes.

Yet, Mickael remained a more dynamic option off the bench; the 26-year-old was closer to his athletic prime, flashing more north-south burst and vertical leaping ability, while still stretching the floor from deep and offering similarly sound defense against the other team’s best perimeter player.

In the 2008-09 regular season, Lee played 25.2 minutes per game (MPG) over 77 games, starting 42 of them; Pietrus played 24.6 MPG over 54 games, starting 25 of them.

Lee shot 40% 3P% on 2.6 3PA, Pietrus knocked down 36% 3P% on 4.1 3PA.

Both shot around 47.5% on 2s and scored around 9 points per game while defending the other team’s best guard or wing with positional versatility as two 6’6” wings who impact the game with top-notch defense first, catch-and-shoot threes second, and attacking closeouts third.

In the playoffs that year, the rookie Lee played 26.2 minutes per game, starting 16 of 21 outings, yet shot only 27% 3P% on 2 3PA, while the 6th-year player Pietrus averaged 25.8 minutes, starting 0 of 24 contests, and hit a blazing 38% 3P% on 4 3PA.

Air France embodied the heart of this Magic team, filling a role an inexperienced squad needed at the time. Pietrus wins fans over at every stop with his exciting NBA Jam style of play.

Consistent energy, dynamic athleticism, two-way impact with shooting confidence, and feathery floor-spacing touch is exciting at every level of basketball.

Spending the first five seasons of his career in Golden State, Mickael played a part in another special one-year flash-in-the-pan run in NBA history.

In 2005-06, the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals, a team led by Dirk Nowitzki that lost to D Wade’s Heat. In the 2006-07 playoffs the following year, that Mavs team earned the #1 seed in the regular season, yet ended up being knocked out in the first round, becoming the third #1 seed ever to lose to an #8 seed in a playoff series.

The “We Believe” Warriors earned their name off the two-way toughness and thrilling up-and-down play of Baron Davis, Monte Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins and Al Harrington leading a Golden State team to the playoffs and becoming the third eighth-seed in NBA history to eliminate a first-seed in the playoffs, following the Denver Nuggets in 1994 and the New York Knicks in 1999.

These late 2000 Magic teams featured four former We Believe Warriors: Adonal Foyle, Jason Richardson, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus

In an always riveting game of “name some guys”, there are tons of fun options for the greatest Orlando Magic role player.

Rafer Alston showed up in the right place at the right time, filling in for an injured Jameer while unlocking even more playmaking, defense and three-point shooting for a team that couldn’t have enough of it around one of those dominant inside forces game of basketball has ever seen in prime Dwight with the ace up the sleeve of an unstoppable halfcourt set when Hedo and Dwight would run the two-man game.

JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, J Rich, and Q Rich all brought fan-favorite floor-spacers, with The Polish Hammer Marcin Gortat going from the best backup big in the league to a high-paid rim-rolling starter. Bo Outlaw, Darrell Armstrong, Pat Garrity, and 3D Dennis Scott are some early fan favorites.

There’s just something about the swaggering confidence that Air France plays with, his dynamic ability to look like he belongs on that court with any star at any time because he could affect the opposing star defensively, stretch the floor for his team from deep, and create his own shot when needed by attacking closeouts with the dribble drive vertical attack dunking at the rim and soft touch on short-range pull-ups.

Mickael Pietrus is a fan favorite at every stop because he does the little things that fans appreciate: hustle, heart, dunks, and threes; exciting two-way play that helps his team on both ends.

Lucas Kaplan – Vince Carter

When the Toronto Raptors finally, rightfully, welcomed Vince Carter back after a decade of animus in 2014, it was a true watershed moment for NBA sentimentalists, the kind an ever-algorithmed league is now less capable of producing. It was fantastic. It also slightly annoyed 14-year-old Lucas.

I was already, frequently, the lone Nets fan amid a sea of blue and orange. I grew up and went to school within walking distance of MSG, but my father, for various reasons, had abandoned his lifelong Knicks fandom by then. I was a free agent, and the New Jersey Nets were also on local television.

As best I can tell, the current mainstream narrative of Vince Carter’s career tends to emphasize his burst onto the scene in Toronto – the dunk contest! – and his career eventually unfolding across an NBA eon, his 22 seasons the most ever. But what happened in between? Well, he was a Net, and a great one at that, a 24/6/5 guy who rose to 26/7/6 in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, there’s no reason to reflect on Carter’s Nets career all that much. Yes, the epic posterization of Alonzo Mourning, who VC punched as often as the sun rises, lives on. But those Jersey teams are justly remembered* for their back-to-back early 2000s Finals runs that came prior to Carter’s arrival. Nothing all that memorable happened with VC as a Net – they won a couple of playoff series with a shallow roster in a weak-but-not-weak-enough Eastern Conference.

*as much as New Jersey Nets teams can be remembered

So I, only a Nets fan because Vince Carter was on local television hitting long-range bombs and dunking on people in 2006, as opposed to whatever Eddy Curry and the Knicks were doing at the same time, was just a tad bit dismayed when the Raptors honored him. Carter was my hero. If Raptors fans didn’t appreciate him, and the Nets would always be Jason Kidd’s franchise thanks to an era I was too young for, then Vinsanity would only be truly special for me.

Obviously, much has happened over the last 15 years. I am no longer eight years old. Besides playing it, my relationship with basketball has been more recently been influenced by the talent boom of the pace-and-space era that really got me into loving hoop – like, wanting to know how teams could defend a pick-and-roll – that culminated with those 2016 Finals, a collective point of demarcation.

Part of me is hesitant to revisit those Carter years that began it all. I don’t want to acknowledge the ceiling-defining limitations of his game, a handle just a bit too sloppy, decision-making just a hair too slow. I don’t want to remind myself how putrid those Nets rosters were outside of Kidd, Carter, and Richard Jefferson, my first Big Three. 

And then I remember that being right doesn’t matter, especially in basketball, a concept my eight or 14-year-old self, who were both sure Vince Carter was simply the best, would scoff at. It’s a concept I still have to remind myself of, and VC helps me do that. There is inextricable beauty in the way New Jersey Vince combined athleticism and hand-eye coordination, the way he floated through the air and tossed up finger-rolls and hook shots from a bygone era. In his best moments, Carter looked like a Monstar that had perfected basketball; they looked simultaneously impossible and effortless.

Deeeep threes and clutch moments, of which there were many, are what I will most remember from Carter’s time as a Net. And he often combined those two traits, especially when facing his former team in Toronto, where he was the most hated player of any NBA fanbase, ever; until LeBron’s Decision:

The most hated man in the NBA going back to enemy territory and doing that! Could you imagine the years of content-baiting and endless discussions centered around those moments if a star did that today?! Perhaps the truly seasoned NBA fans will remember those killshots like the back of their hand, but to me, it feels like they’re on the verge of getting lost in history. I can’t let that happen. For the first time in a long time, I realize that Vince Carter the New Jersey Net was special, and not just to me.

The players who made you fall in love with basketball will always matter, and it’s honorable to preserve their legacies. Why else do we invest all this time and energy? Just don’t tell us what made them the best. Tell us what made them special.

Corey Rausch – Rasheed Wallace

Rasheed Wallace was ahead of his time. Not just because he embodied personality and gave us the ubiquitous “Ball Don’t Lie.” The floor spacing big man was something that the league was not truly ready for. When someone like Dirk Nowitzki, an obvious contemporary, went to the outside he was incorrectly labeled as soft. No one would dare say something similar about Sheed.

From 2001-2009, Wallace attempted 3.9 triples per game and shot 34.8 percent. While that is certainly paltry by today’s standards, it was revolutionary at the time. Even better, once he arrived in Detroit, it was his unique game that springboarded the team into the title they would win that season. Yes, they had Chauncey Billups’ shotmaking, Ben Wallace generational defense, and Tayshaun Prince all-time block. But Sheed was the final piece. He could play elite defense but still fit next to Wallace on the offensive end.

After he arrived in Detroit the Pistons posted the best defensive rating in the league by more than seven full points per 100 possessions. It was unfair. But everything about Rasheed Wallace was. He had to give a little of it back with all of the technicals he earned (317, third most of all time). Somehow though, you could never be mad at him for it.

Wallace changed the vision of what a star could be for me. It did not have to be scoring, though he was more than capable. He was a stout defender, a strong rebounder, and a valued teammate. But the numbers rarely mattered. He was there to pick his spots, hold others accountable, and win. The team posted a 289-147 (66.3 winning percentage). Every time a big shoots from behind the arc, “SHEEEEEED” still rings out in my head.

Josh Url – Muggsy Bogues

I was the short kid until my sophomore year. While I literally looked up at most people I didn’t really “look up” to many. Except for Muggsy Bogues

Muggsy Bogues was the shortest player in NBA history at just 5’3” yet he played for 14 seasons!

He is the reason I love passing and defense. He is the reason I think the highly unlikely is not impossible. He is the reason I love basketball.

Matt Powers – Jamaal Tinsley

While basketball has been a lifelong passion of mine, that has not always included the NBA. But a few players along the way had an impact that exceeded that of the sport. Despite being already mostly forgotten as a zero-time All-Star without a ring, perhaps no player has been more meaningful to me than Jamaal Tinsley.

The creative side of basketball has its champions like Magic and Nash, but I am convinced Tinsley has as good of a passing vision as any. At only a listed (and unlikely) 6’3’’ and lacking a consistent outside shot (career 30% from three, less than 1 per game), Tinsley was able to start 400 games at point guard for mostly successful teams. He compensated for his limitations not just with creativity, but weaponized creativity. He combined table-setting with advantage-seeking like no one I’d seen before, particularly thriving in the chaos of transition or on broken plays.

Tinsley seemed capable of anything, putting up mega stat lines like a 12-point, 15 assist, 9 rebound, 6 steal, 5 block game and a 19 point, 23 assist, 11 rebound, and 5 turnover game in his first month as a rookie. I was hooked. The possibility of this single player, unimpressive in stature but able to access any angle to get past the giants, meant I no longer knew the limits of what was possible on the court. I treasure the uniqueness of personality expression on the basketball court, with every player ultimately also expressing themselves within the artistry of the game. Tinsley made sure I never forget that.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Remembering Some NBA Guys appeared first on Swish Theory.

Swish is here to help you, as we asked our contributors who impressed: who showed you something new, whether new moves or new tactics, new shooting form…what have you. We filtered through the mirages to find the tangible, items that just might remain relevant come regular season start.

Without further ado, here are Swish Theory’s Summer League 2023 takeaways.

Matt Powers – Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced feel for manipulation 

Pick and roll play is not a staple of Sharpe’s game, at least not up to this point, but Summer League was potentially an inflection point. Sharpe accumulated 36 pick and rolls in his four games, his nine per game five times higher than his rookie season. 

It was not simply the usage, however, but also the execution. Sharpe will still not be mistaken for a Nash-ian playmaker, at only 2.5 assists per game in Summer League after only 1.2 as a rookie, but advanced understanding of how to set up screens to deploy his own scoring speaks to his star upside regardless.

In the below Summer League clips we see Shaedon:

1. Wait to start his dribble until screen set, initiate with hang dribble then in-and-out to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
2. Jab to set up screen, hesi to set up re-screen, reject to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
3. Cross between the legs into using screen, gets skinny to reset into pull-up in one motion
4. Set up hand-off to then re-establish more favorable screen, wide open three

This variety of screen usage masks Sharpe’s intention between drive and pull-up, and when his and his screener’s defenders have to lock in more intently at the point of screen, Shaedon has the potential to draw in additional help with his supreme scoring gravity.

Sharpe’s assist rate skyrocketed from nearly non-existent to typical of a young scoring guard when Dame sat last year. Should he get even more leeway to create in the backcourt, Sharpe could continue to chain combos to become not just a deadly scorer but overall playmaker.

Lucas Kaplan – Leonard Miller willing to use size to his advantage

Leonard Miller might have the most interesting development path from the 2023 class to me. There is an idea, to which I’ve heard arguments both for and against, that he has outlier movement skills and a ceiling far more enticing, due to that trait, than a second-round draft slot would suggest.

I’m not here to debate just how special his fluidity is at 6’11 and 19 years old. No matter where you fall on Miller, though, that’s part of the sell. Our very own Avinash Chauhan wrote an excellent, pre-draft piece on the young Canadian and why we could be looking at a steal of the draft should he fall outside the lottery (which he did). One point made there was that an athlete this adaptable, this unique, should not be limited by factors of role projection – in other words, we shouldn’t force the limits of our own imagination on him.

Regardless, I’ll be fascinated to see if the processing ever fully unlocks Miller’s potential on both ends, a conundrum that was on full display in Las Vegas. Imagine Miller playing ‘Monkey in the Middle’, for example – his combination of size and athleticism would make him a nightmarish player to try to complete a pass over.

But take a play like this, where Miller is tasked with tagging the roller as the ‘low man’ on the weak-side:

You just don’t see any of those special movement skills or fierce athleticism that may eventually make him a devilish disruptor on defense. It’s a robotic slide over to the paint, then a basic closeout to the corner that is too late to prevent a clean 3-point look. Miller looks, respectfully, more like a YMCA coach showing how it’s down than a preternaturally gifted athlete.

Combine plays like that with holding the ball too long or missing cutters on offense, and his play from Summer League, to me, was fully representative of the MIller conundrum: In order to unlock what we know he is capable of, his basketball brain has to catch up to his body. I will be enthralled by this development in the coming years for Miller.

But as you may have guessed, given the prompt for this roundtable, Miller was often impressive in his minutes in Vegas. It wasn’t just the shot-making, though making seven threes in five games, as well as an array of mid-range shots, was a welcome sight. I was delighted to see Miller frequently use his size on the inside, aggressively posting up and sealing perceived mismatches in the lane. Now, again, this was Summer League, meaning a lack of offensive identity and, well, passing ability as a unit meant Miller’s Timberwolves teammates did not frequently get him the ball in these situations.

But becoming an efficient off-ball mover bodes well for those instincts I mentioned. And combine a willingness to post-up and rebound (the latter of which we know Miller can do) with potential shot-making from deep, and suddenly, Miller is the coveted offensive player who can play in a five-out offense or be the ‘one’ in a four-out, one-in offense.

Those were just two ultimately fruitless in which Miller tried to leverage his size into a good look at the rim, the first of which had some small part in creating a good look at the rim for a teammate, but the G-League Ignite product was relentless in Vegas. It was incredibly refreshing to see Leonard Miller, who may project as a big guard on offense, be so active and willing to use his size down low. That’ll make guarding him a whole lot more problematic for defenses. 

@BeyondTheRK – MarJon Beauchamp’s shooting touch, decision-making, scoring versatility

MarJon Beauchamp has looked like the best player on the floor in multiple Summer League games. MarJon’s feathery shooting touch, decisive decision-making, and smooth scoring versatility have stood out for the second-year Milwaukee Buck.

In game one, MarJon led a second-half comeback victory for Milwaukee, aided by strong defense from teammates like Andre Jackson’s double block possession. After a slower first half in his first game, MarJon took the keys to the car and revved the engine; Beauchamp rallied from a 2/9 start from the field to convert 7/9 FG in the second half, finishing with 23 PTS on 50% FG% and 8 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Moving at a more controlled pace, with deliberate footwork, fundamental post-moves, and tight handles to create his own shot from all three levels.

Countering pull-up jump shots with elbow fades and even a self alley-oop slam to open his second game. Somewhere off in the distance, wherever Tracy McGrady was in that moment, it’s nice to think T-Mac looked up, smiled, and nodded in approval.

In game two, Beauchamp stayed in rhythm from the game prior, scoring 20 PTS on 7/13 FG, racking up a block and steal, attempting 8 free throws after 5 the first game.

MarJon using his respected jumper to pump-fake and draw defenders in the air is a highly-aware veteran move to create the most efficient shot in basketball: free throws

Clean footwork, tight handles, good feel helped Marjon show complete body and ball control with the rock.

Beauchamp has made scoring look smooth and shooting look simple. He was purposeful in his decision-making, attacking the rack for soft touch AND1 finishes, looking to create shots for himself or kick the ball to the open man.

MarJon didn’t see much of a defined role or opportunity in his rookie season. Now with a new head coach, maybe a better fitting role in the rotation arises. It’s no secret Giannis, Brook, and Jrue could use another scoring valve in the halfcourt next to Middleton who gives the team another player who could go off on any given night.

This type of microwave scoring option who can heat up at any moment, score the ball from anywhere on the floor on or off the ball, and add team-first decision making and length to the equation provides a secondary scoring option rotation player, on paper a clean fit as a reserve who offers a tough shot-maker to potentially close games with the defensive-heavy Milwaukee Bucks starting unit.

AJ – Trayce Jackson-Davis’ passing ability, Warriors-style

Despite limited time in Summer League, Trayce Jackson-Davis was able to show what makes him such an intriguing fit with the Warriors. He displayed his usual explosiveness and activity around the rim on both ends, but the reads and quick decisions he flashed as a passer really stood out as well. 

Trayce not only demonstrated the ability to make the simple pass to keep the offense moving, but he had moments of brilliance and made passes that a vast majority of bigs aren’t capable of. One of his passes in particular was eerily reminiscent of another Warriors frontcourt player:

Overall Trayce’s athleticism as a roll man and ability to affect shots at the rim on the other end remain his greatest strengths, but it was very intriguing to see the passing pop as much as it did in his short stint in Vegas, especially knowing how much the Warriors value bigs that can read the floor and make decisions. 

Charlie – Lester Quiñones’ scoring and passing translating from the G-League

After a strong showing in Vegas, LQ might just be one of the best scorers not already in the NBA.

With the Sea Dubs last season, Quiñones posted the 12th highest PPG mark in the league, getting up 10 threes per 36 minutes at a 35% clip. He was used to handling a high scoring load, and did a fair amount of playmaking for the team. Not only did he manage the 2nd highest assist percentage on the team, he posted a strong 1.4 ATO for a score-first wing.

In Vegas, we saw the same strengths: prolific scoring (21.6 PPG, 1st among 5-game players), firing away from deep (9 attempts, ranking 3rd), and a solid base of playmaking (5.2 assists, 9th overall). What impressed the most was how he did it. LQ was very aggressive with getting two feet in the paint, showcasing a strong array of kickout and layoff pases to capitalize on rim pressure. The finishing wasn’t going well for him, but he drew the most free-throws (41) of any player in the tournament.

This is what caught my eyes the most about his stretch of play. The variety in his scoring gives a consistency to his game even when one aspect isn’t working. Without the threes falling, he still used his developing handle to put points on the board in other ways and continue to create pressure for others.

Quiñones has put himself in the conversation for the 14th roster spot, with a two-way certainly in hand. Even if he ends up spending another year in Santa Cruz, it looks like Golden State has found themselves a player in the undrafted Memphis wing.

Michael Neff – OTE alums performed well across the board

In my one-size-fits-all draft strategy article, I said I was fine letting other teams draft Amen and Ausar Thompson. I said this due to the enigmatic nature of their league, Overtime Elite. We had no idea how the Thompsons’ dominance in OTE would translate up to the next level; Dom Barlow’s garbage time and end-of-season tanking minutes were the only real sample we had going into the draft of an OTE player making it to the NBA. So, did dominance in OTE mean that stardom was in their future, or did it simply mean that you were good enough to stick in an NBA rotation? Was Ausar the next Andre Iguodala or the next Keon Johnson? Should Amen have dominated even more given his otherworldly athleticism? 

These questions were not meant to be flippant. Because there was some intriguing NCAA and G-League talent who offered quick avenues to positive contribution and high upside, I would have taken the wait and see approach with the Thompsons and OTE. I wasn’t a skeptic, just agnostic. 

But, as it turns out, OTE has prepared its players for the professional level. I know it is just Summer League, but I’m already more excited about these OTE players and the talent the league will produce in the coming years. Ausar Thompson really did look like prime Iggy out there, with a per game slashline of 13.5/9.8/3.5 to go along with two steals a game. His length, quickness, and anticipation were overwhelming defensively, and the dribbling and connective passing from OTE stuck around. Amen Thompson only played one game, but he looked like a top five athlete in basketball right now. 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks in 28 minutes speaks for itself. No one could stay in front of Amen, and he picked the defense apart with his passing to a degree no one in the Rockets’ young core is close to emulating. 

The Thompsons were the headliners, but it wasn’t all about them. Dom Barlow seems to have built on his athleticism and added more skill to his game. He didn’t attempt any threes, but Barlow’s midrange jumper is looking better. He also averaged 2.0 assists to 1.3 turnovers. What I loved to see from Barlow was how functionally he used his athletic tools. There was a purpose and precision in his movements that I don’t remember seeing from him before. Barlow might have gone from a flash in the pan to a possible contributor for the Spurs moving forward. Even Jazian Gortman and Jaylen Martin, with the Bucks and Knicks respectively, had their moments. Gortman’s creation for himself and others looked strong, and Martin played quality defense and made good decisions for the Knicks.

It is too early to take any overarching lessons from the 2023 Draft. But, OTE already has me on high alert. Not only does OTE look like a viable development path, but a potentially very beneficial one of the right players. I will be keenly monitoring them going forward. Also, note to self: when two of the best passers and ball handlers in the class are also two of the best athletes in basketball, just put them high on your board.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Summer League 2023 Takeaways appeared first on Swish Theory.

While that’s all well and fun, at Swish Theory we want to mix things up a bit. We want to imagine not just how teams currently constructed might perform, but…what if…everything was a little bit different?

That’s what we have here with the Swish Theory NBA Playoffs Remix. Fourteen contributors got together for a re-draft of all the players on playoff teams (top 7 seeds only, as of about a month ago – why the Mavs are here).

Who do you think would win? Basketball is a practice in creativity, let’s try to imagine the teams of the future, not just in 2023. We run these scenarios by special guest judge collaborators, to be announced over the course of the week – but who do you think will win?

The Teams: Eastern Conference

#1 Seed (last pick in first round): Team Gannon (@gannon_rice)

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

The pitch for the team is a souped-up version of the 2017 Rockets, with an actual #2 option. James Harden is James Harden, to clear up any confusion. Now, combine the defensive prominence of Trevor Ariza and the shotmaking of Eric Gordon, and out of the lab comes Mikal Bridges. Melton takes on the off-guard role of a less rabid Patrick Beverley with high volume three-point shooting. Cam Johnson is a modern-era Ryan Anderson and Victor Oladipo provides bench creation like Lou Williams, but with size and defense. Evan Mobley provides the two-way rim threat of Clint Capela, along with serious on-ball chops. Then we go 2 years in the future and snag Hartensteins short-roll playmaking and defensive feel, did I mention this Rockets team won 55 games?

Our offense will be predicated around James Harden, but not the typical heliocentric offense seen in the past. The offensive feel our bigs bring allows a 5-Out look, utilizing them with the ball above the arc spamming DHO’s with every one of our players and stagger/split offense on the wings. P&R will be a key part of our offense, with Harden carrying a bulk of the primary usage, either creating his own looks, kicking to shooters (4 guys at 40% from 3), or throwing lobs to the rolling bigs (spamming ghost screens if it’s Cam at the 4). Mikal has shown an incredible leap as a 25 efficient PPG 1B option who will excel playing off Harden and easing the on-ball load off him. If you’re not convinced, let’s go over everything the offense can do. A do-everything offensive engine, a capable #2 creator, elite shooting, positional versatility, and every single one of our players providing a connective ball-moving offense, unique to every other team. 

Selecting James Harden meant I had to cover up some of his defensive liabilities, and I did just that. Melton and Oladipo provide elite POA defense for 48 minutes, and provide positional versatility to guard up to the 3. Mikal will match up against the top wing, while having off-ball freedom to cause chaos. Mobley will be our anchor, versatile in any role and capable of being a helpside roamer at the 4 and being a primary 5 in our defensive scheme. That scheme, P&R wise, will feature a mix of everything. This includes switching with mobley at the 5, blitzing slow processors, playing drop with IHart + against non-mid range threats, and primarily playing at the level, incorporating a soft hedge. Playing against reigning all-defensive team members Mikal and Mobley will be hell for the star western conference forwards. The 2 names not mentioned in the scheme, Harden and Cam, are both capable of being switched 1-4, allowing for further versatility in a defensive lineup with length, off-ball hawks, perimeter stoppers, and elite rim protection. 

#2 Seed: Team Pow (@draftpow)

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

The two items that translate best from the regular season to the NBA playoffs are 1. defensive versatility and 2. tough shotmaking. When teams are able to lock into scheme, the NBA becomes a jousting competition, not exactly in iso but instead shooting pull ups aggressively after catching the ball on the move. With the best defensive personnel by far while still full of scorers and sound decision-makers (our starters have a combined 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio), we’ll play the territory game, winning possessions, finding open scorers and putting opposing stars in a bind.

In the playoffs, defenses are only as good as their worst defender. You need personnel who can not just fight through a screen but contest in an instant and understand how to recover in broken plays. My team’s worst defensive starter is Julius Randle, still league average and capable of locking in at a high level as an elite athlete. 

Second, you need to plan for your offense to go wrong. Your opponent will know where you’re trying to go, and your common ways of getting there. Players who can make adjustments on the swivel like Bam Adebayo, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickley are rare, especially when they can also hit tough shots. We can sneak in some easy looks off of back cuts to optimize our passing, as well as all-five screening using our strength. Our team is built to be on a swivel, and also have 45%,  38%, 37%, 34% three point shooting starters and flamethrower Cam Thomas off the bench. 

We have potential swing factors across the board as any of Jrue, Randle, Barrett, IQ, Cam Thomas and Bam have a combined 13 forty point games this season. We have the tough shotmaking and strongest collective quick decision making to optimize our weapons.

#3 Seed: Team Oscar (@oscar_hoops)

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams 

With my first pick being relatively late at #5 in the East pool, I didn’t head into the draft with a set roster construction philosophy in mind. Instead, I decided to see how the board fell and build around whichever centerpiece fell into my lap accordingly. While there were unfortunately no true superstar offensive options available when I got to the virtual podium, I was able to shift gears and assemble a gauntlet of defensive talent stacked to the brim with length, strength, and versatility. Rather than settling for a 2nd-tier primary creator with my top pick and trying to build a conventional offensive dynamo, I prioritized players who can offer major resistance in gaps and as point of attack defenders, while also nabbing enough tough shotmakers and individual offensive talents to make things work on the other end. From a championship upside perspective, the track record for teams without an MVP-caliber offensive fulcrum (although Butler was pretty damn close this year!) is admittedly poor, but I’m willing to bet that we can be an outlier with our combination of suffocating scheme-versatile defense and litany of talented scorers surrounded with good spacers.

If there’s one thing I’ll promise about this roster, it’s that we’ll have a counter for any flavor of creator we run up against. We have several elite point-of-attack options to throw at the two most common archetypes of high-usage offensive stars: small guard PnR maestros (Jevon Carter, Butler, and even Jaylen Brown), and bigger wing creators (Butler, Brown, and Grant Williams). To generate a favorable 1-on-1 matchup against our starters, opposing teams will have to run lineups with 5 players who are all threats with the ball in their hands, something most rosters are simply not capable of. And when we roll out our death lineup, swapping out Maxey for Jevon Carter, we’ll effectively have 5 fringe All-Defensive caliber players on the floor at once, while still maintaining good spacing around our 2 dynamic creators in Butler and Brown. Our elite length and range on the wing will allow us to be selectively aggressive sending gap help, as we won’t have to overcommit to slowing down drivers with the knowledge that we have an elite rim protector in Robinson waiting for them. We also have options in terms of pick-and-roll defending bigs: Robinson is our traditional drop big who also has hedge-and-recover flexibility, while Williams can moonlight as a small-ball switch 5 depending on matchup. Our defense is long, athletic, uber-versatile, and has few weak links, making it adaptable to any matchup and an ideal fit for playoff ball.

On the offensive end, we’ll adopt a ball-sharing philosophy to maximize our depth and hunt positive matchups. Much like how our defense offers few exploitable matchups, our plethora of solid-or-better scorers (Butler, Brown, Harris, Maxey) will prohibit opposing teams from hiding a weak perimeter defender on a non-threat. If they have a liability on D, we’ll be able to exploit it! 

Although we don’t have a traditional point guard on roster, Butler will serve as the de-facto primary ballhandler, as he provides both the most rim pressure and self-creation ability on the roster. His steady diet of pullup-2s, layups, and free throws will be the staple foods of our offense. Jaylen Brown will still be a key cog on that end, serving as a 1B option with the starters, and he’ll also be staggered to get minutes with the bench unit. We’ll mask his shaky ball control by getting him the ball in motion, primarily through pistol sets, and allowing him to win with touch and natural athletic gifts. Tyrese Maxey will be the nominal starting point guard, but will function as a lethal off-ball scorer playing off of our two star wings. Although he won’t be starting at the 4, Tobias Harris will still get significant minutes as a 6th man, filling in as a combo forward who can assimilate to any lineup we put him in. Finally, Mitchell Robinson will offer us an elite interior finisher and offensive rebounder who can command vertical attention as a roller, which will in turn allow Butler/Brown to cook in the short midrange. Although somewhat unconventional, our offense features 2 star creators surrounded by a cast of complementary players shooting 38%, 39%, 39% and 43% from 3 this season, respectively (excluding Mitchell Robinson). Having an elite pullup shooter to soak up late clock attempts in the playoffs is priceless; we have two of them, with plenty of kickout options available and elite play finishers on both levels in Maxey and Robinson. Although this is a defense-first team, we have the offensive firepower to score with anyone and always take advantage of the opponent’s weakest link.

#4 Seed: Team Larro (@_larrohoops)

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love 

When I joined this fun exercise I set out to find an elite offense generator, rim protector, strong second scoring option that can also play make for others, and fill out the rest of the roster with role players that can stretch the floor and add some Variety to our offense.

Offensively this team will be coached into playing more random style offense with few set plays. I think that when you have players with the ability of Donovan Mitchell you allow them to apply pressure to the game and let them control the flow and pace. We will run double drags/single drag with Jarrett Allen as the screener for rim pressure and vertical spacing, at times it can be inverted with Jae depending on the type of defender who is guarding him. Pistol action with DMitch and Jarrett/Kevin Love. Being able to have Khris Middleton on the opposite side of the floor is a beautiful site when DMitch is your primary ballhandler because you can bet that he will have a lot more ability to attack tilted defenses and create for others off of it. Marcus Smart will stretch the floor, screen, and cut to keep things on the random side. Jae Crowder will also be in that floor spacing role mixed with some cutting. Grayson Allen and Kevin Love come off the bench and bring more shooting and versatility. Grayson can shoot off of DHO stuff, C+S, and movement just a bit. Kevin Love provides the ability to run some delay type actions with his passing ability. 

Defensively, I believe that I have one of the top Pick-and-roll defensive duos in the draft with Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. Jarrett has a cool ability to switch when needed, he also does a really good job of moving his feet and hips and being able to stay attached even when he is beat because of his length. Marcus Smart is our quarterback on this end of the floor. He can call out actions before they even begin and communicate with his teammates to make their job a bit easier. We already know about his point-of-attack defense. He’s a hound on the ball and off. As for everyone else, Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder both can switch screen actions to keep the ball in front of them. We will be prodominently a no-middle team on side ball screens, and middle ball screens we will switch it up. With Jarrett Allen in the fold we can show at the level because I can trust that Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder will have Jarrett’s back on those backside rotations. Kevin Love when out there will be a show at the level and will stay out of drop. 

All in all, I think I’ve built a team who can compete and shoot well enough to allow Donovan Mitchell and Khris Middleton to stay on the attack and create offense. 

#5 Seed: Team Josh A. (@joshaber_sports)

The pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

When I filled out my roster, I made sure to build my team to fit the strengths of my team’s superstar Joel Embiid. As a result, I made sure to surround him with pick and roll creators, elite and switchable point of attack defenders, and backline rim protection for when Embiid ends up being my primary pick and roll defensive big. 

I believe that Darius Garland would be a strong pairing with Joel Embiid, as his overall outside shooting and pick and roll play gives Embiid plenty of space for his beloved mid-post plays. I envision Garland relocating during these plays or receiving off ball screens to get open shots, which would in result distract defenders and prevent Embiid from getting helped on too much. Derrick White will be my primary point of attack defender, and on offense he will provide the team with great outside shooting, cutting, and connective passing. I believe that his skillset meshes very well with Darius Garland, who may struggle on the defensive end against tougher assignments.

As for my forwards, Dorian Finney-Smith provides the team with lots of length and physicality on the defensive end. He can serve as the team’s wingstopper, allowing White to cover the other team’s best guards and Robert Williams to be in his roamer role. I decided to go double big to support Embiid on both ends due to his weak side rim protection capabilities on defense and his ability to lurk around the dunkers spot on offense. I also think that Williams has some clear utility as an off ball screener when Embiid is operating in a face-up, as teams will have to fight to get around his screens to contest shots from our shooters.

As for my two rotational players off the bench, Caleb Martin provides the team with shooting, closeout attacks, connective passing, and physical on ball defense. Martin struggled at times when playing in a primary forward role with Miami this season, but when he was on the wings more he was able to showcase his offensive skill set more often. I decided to pair Jalen McDaniels with Caleb Martin as my other contributor off the bench, as I think he serves as a good compliment to Martin on the defensive end. Martin is very solid and physical while McDaniels brings lots of length and swift ground coverage on the defensive end.

When matching up with Larro’s team, we will be putting Embiid in a mid-drop system where he may at times play up at the level to deter pull-up threes from Donovan Mitchell. However, we may be able to get away with the drop system due to Derrick White’s excellent screen navigation. On offense, we will be running lots of Embiid pinch post plays, as he can create his own offense with ease. We will also implement some post split plays for Darius Garland to get some open threes or potential drives, which maximizes the offensive skill sets of our two stars.

#6 Seed: Team Josh U. (@2REDJUrl)

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

NBA playoff success requires top quality offense AND defense. Of the 8 conference finals teams over the last two NBA playoffs 6 were in the top 10 in ORTG and 7 were top 10 in DRTG. I wanted to build a group who could do the same.

On offense all 8 conference finals teams had at least 1 player who averaged over 11 drives per game and 6 of the 8 had two such players! To drive our offense I drafted 3 players who average over 11 drives per game in Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tyler Herro. Our spacing is excellent with 6 players who shoot above average from deep on over 6 attempts per 100 possessions. And we also have an elite finisher and lob threat in Nicolas Claxton who leads the league in fg%. 

Defensively all 8 of those teams were in the top half of the league in opponent eFG%. I built my team with an elite rim protector in Claxton, two quality POA defenders in Quentin Grimes and Royce O’Neale, and size across the rotation to switch. My opponents will have to work hard for good looks against us. We have the pieces to be a contender.

#7 Seed: Team Will (@w_a_morris)

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline.

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

The lottery gods blessed me with the first pick in the East and I ended up rolling with NBA Champion and 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has proven capable of being the go-to-guy on a championship team, so selecting him was a no-brainer. I tried to replicate Milwaukee’s frontcourt rotation, later taking Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. The Lopez-Giannis duo has been deadly once again this year, with Milwaukee recording a 9.2 Net-Rating with those two on the floor. Teams are shooting just 60.0% within 6-feet of the basket against Milwaukee this season. Preventing easy buckets at the rim is a recipe for winning basketball. 

Giannis is obviously going to draw plenty of defensive attention, so with the rest of my picks I looked for players who could punish defenses off his scoring gravity, both by knocking down open shots and attacking closeouts. Jalen Brunson has established himself as a true superstar this year, winning as a creator with his exceptional footwork, handle, and touch. Dinwiddie too provides some excellent secondary/tertiary creation chops. Both guards also have plenty of experience operating away from the ball. Josh Hart has given the Knicks a huge spark as a slasher and spot-up shooter, shooting 74.2% at the rim and 56.8% from three. Sam Hauser is one of the best shooters in the world at 6’8”, and while he’s probably going to have to log more minutes at the 3 than he has in Boston, his ability to bomb away off of movement bolsters our bench offense. 

The obvious concern with this roster is our perimeter defense. Hart is tenacious on-the-ball, but at 6’4” he may struggle to check some of the more difficult wing assignments in the NBA playoffs. Dinwiddie and Brunson will have to really lock in at the point-of-attack versus lead ball-handlers. Fortunately, having Giannis and Brook on the backline lurking gives us some leeway.

The Teams: Western Conference

#1 Seed: Team Sajdak (@davidsajdak8)

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent.

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

Picking last in the west meant that the true 1A primary option type of guys were already off the board before I got a chance to select. So, I decided to really focus (as best I could) on lineup versatility and flexibility rather than building my team around 1 talent. Playoff basketball can get really funky so giving my coaching staff (or me I guess) as much wiggle room as possible to make in-game adjustments or get weird with things was a goal of mine.

My primary lineup of choice offers plenty of shooting and playmaking, with one of the best isolation players in Kyrie Irving able to go get me one when the game calls for it. With the way Kyrie likes to play off his bigs, I was really excited to pair him with one of the league’s premier big-man playmakers and play-finishers in Karl-Anthony Towns. Add Kyle Anderson to the mix and you have a lineup with 3 players that you can trust to make good decisions off the dribble and maintain or capitalize on advantages that have been created for them. With Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. rounding out the lineup, I have two guys that are both more than capable shooters (especially Hardaway, whose an elite one) and can make plays off the dribble attacking closeouts. Off the bench, Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the league, offering a steady hand when Irving has to check out the game. Finally, Konchar gives me another +decision-making wing that’s capable of making open shots.

On defense, I got a perennial DPOY candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. who I targeted early on in the draft. Jackson is somebody I see as the perfect fit next to KAT defensively, allowing him to stay away from the perimeter and cleaning up his mistakes with his elite weakside rim protection. My starting lineup is lacking in size at the guard positions, but this is where flexibility/versatility I was talking about earlier can really start to pay off with Konchar able to play the 2 over THJ if extra defense or size is needed. I also have the ability to play JJJ as my 5 and slide Kyle Anderson to the 4 in end of game situations or whenever needed.

#2 Seed: Team Neema (@findingneema23)

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

Our best ability is our ability to run. The team boasts two of the most athletic backcourt players in the NBA. Ja Morant is one of the best point guards in the league, and Edwards is a microwave offensively while also being a nightly threat. The pairing is backed up by Gary Payton II, who provides a lockdown defender to fill the gaps if defense is needed, as Edwards and Morant are both capable, but inconsistent defenders. At the wings we have length and shooting in Andrew Wiggins and Michael Porter Jr, the two juxtaposing one another in role. Wiggins provides game-changing defense along the wings  and Porter is one of the most efficient wings in the league. At the big, while there isn’t a ton of size, we are able to be versatile in our coverages in style of play. Kevon Looney and Brandon Clarke may not be the tallest bigs, but both provide strategic versatility and are great hustle bigs.

Our philosophy is to play with extreme pace. Having versatility across our lineup, this team can find a way to match up with any team in the conference. We can go big with Clarke and Looney together, or go small playing Wiggins or GP2 at the big position. Versatility, size and athleticism are extremely important, and the team still has the pieces to space the floor effectively. Our combination of size, speed and strength, while also having good shooting on the wings and defensive specialists, can help us lockup the more offensive focused teams, and outrun and outgun the teams that just can’t keep up.

#3 Seed: Team AJ (@NBA_Jeremy1)

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

The selling point for this team is versatility and athleticism. We’ll be really comfortable playing multiple styles offensively, typically at a fast speed with De’Aaron Fox running the point alongside a few other plus athletes. When we need to slow it down or score at the end of the games that shouldn’t be an issue either, as Devin Booker and Fox give us high level creation in the half court along with DeAndre Ayton’s presence as a play finisher. The biggest issue on offense is likely our lack of high end 3pt shooting, but everyone on the team is at least capable of making an open jumper so spacing shouldn’t be much of an issue in spite of that.

The versatility of our team translates to the defensive end as well. We have reliable options to defend at the POA (Jaden McDaniels, Bruce Brown), protect the rim (Ayton, McDaniels, Maxi Kleber), and defend wings (McDaniels, Reggie Bullock). Kleber off the bench gives us the option to play a 2nd big with Ayton, or as the 5 in smaller lineups depending on the matchup. We also don’t have many glaring weaknesses to attack or hunt on defense, as Fox is really the only questionable defender in the rotation and even he can provide resistance when locked in.

Overall our flexibility on both ends give us a lot of different looks we can throw at teams. We can get out in transition and put up points quickly with our athletes and ball handlers, but there’s also plenty of positional size and defense we can lean on as well. We can play whatever style is needed for a given matchup, and at the end of games we have two of the league’s best half court shot makers in Booker and Fox to take us home. 

#4 Seed: Team Tyler (@ProspectingNBA)

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

“It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! “ – Rocky Balboa

Championships are made through excellence and resilience. Playoff basketball is like a 12-round fight, trapped within a cage of ropes where survival is born through careful analysis and tactical precision. Weaknesses are hunted and edges are unraveled, bit by bit. In drafting this team I set out to build a roster defensively versatile with playoff-durable offense. Offensively, rather than emphasize spacing for the sake of three point attempts, the goal was to find skilled players with a multifaceted offensive game. 

Chis Paul is the greatest floor general of the modern era and will operate as a cooler counterpart to Jamal Murray’s shotmaking inferno. With Donte DiVincenzo and Dillon Brooks coming off the bench this backcourt is ready-made for any defensive matchup you throw at them with the skill, spacing and shotmaking needed to carry an effective offense.

In the frontcourt Steven Adams will pair as an excellent screen and roll big with Chris Paul, and while he may not have much of a scoring load, his screen setting, rebounding and rim protection will provide a baseline competence on that end. He’s an incredibly strong big who, at the very least, can stand the physical test of guarding the star big men of the league. 

Aaron Gordon is an incredibly versatile defensive piece to guard 3-5 and with the strength and vertical pop to sop up backup center minutes for this roster. Gordon is an effective offensive player when his role is properly limited and the surrounding offensive talent on this roster allows for that context. 

Finally, we get to Kevin Durant, the man himself. There is no greater tough shot-maker in the world, and no skill more important in playoff basketball. Our foundation of defensive toughness and versatility will make this team an incredibly tough out even when shots aren’t falling. Games are going to come down to the wire and when someone is shooting to win or go home, I’m taking Kevin Durant every time.

#5 Seed: Team Avinash (@100guaranteed)

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

This is certainly an unorthodox combination of talents, but the convergence of size and shooting could unlock another level of dominance. With premier shooting talents, strong slashers, and arguably 2 of the top 5 centers of the decade, there’s inherent versatility beyond what I can summarize here. The crux of the offense revolves around high-low action between two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Gobert has had a disappointing season, but much of that can be attributed to a suboptimal context- he hasn’t been able to attack the rim at requisite levels by virtue of Finch’s more free-flowing offense. He should thrive on a team with above-average playmakers at every position, most notably Jokic. 

Operating at the high post or top of the key while Gobert stays near the basket, Jokic can create open looks for Gobert down low, kick to one of the virtuoso shooters on the perimeter, or find one of the strong wing slashers for a quick 45 cut. I decided to ultimately draft Gobert not because of his defensive prowess, but simply because I cannot fathom a reality where a team can effectively shut down any sort of Jokic-Gobert joint action, especially considering the accompanying shooters/slashers at hand. Guarding two seven footers is inherently difficult, but Jokic’s guard-like skillset makes this proposition even more wildly difficult.

The slashing/shooting on this team should be considered as well. Conley, Bane, and Poole are all relatively versatile shooters with effective pull-up jumpers, but they are also dynamic handlers in space. With strong finishing packages and elusive handles, each of these players are solid self creators who can thrive playing off one another and alongside two roll threats. The sheer slashing competencies of this lineup, especially with C&S maestros/strong wings Okogie and Josh Green, should enable even more versatility to complement the two seven footers.

Defensively, let’s not overthink this. Bane and Conley are both strong, well-above average defenders, while Okogie and Green have garnered reputations as bendy (in regards to screen nav), lockdown wings. Jokic’s strength can enable him to cover 4s decently well, and we all know what Gobert is capable of. This is a fascinatingly strong defensive lineup, but in the interest of word count, I think the transcendent, unprecedented nature of the offense needs to be emphasized. If you’re a bit wary of these players, I’ll end with this: I cannot remember a single 5 man lineup with as many possible PnR permutations. The shooting/slashing/playmaking/size combination of skills is truly unprecedented; teams with inadequate size or versatile-coverage personnel will indubitably get cooked.

#6 Seed: Team Corban aka Monta’s Inferno (@corbannba)

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kaminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kaminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

For playoff basketball, among many keys for success, two ring paramount: quality defense and crunchtime scoring. With Monta’s Inferno, both boxes are checked off. On the offensive side, we have the second leading scorer in the league as well as the one ranked sixth in assists (Luka). In addition to that, we have one of the greatest three point shooters of all time, a terror coming off pin down actions (Klay) AND a player who, among being an efficient scorer, has made the most threes as a rookie in NBA history (Keegan). Off the pine we have a proven, microwave scorer across both guard spots (Monk) and a big man who can get baskets in a hurry and is equally adept taking the ball to the hole or shooting from outside (Wood). Even the players who don’t specialize in scoring specifically bring other attributes to the table that will elevate the overall offense, from rebounding to additional playmaking (Green/Kaminga)

On  defense, Green is the lynchpin at the 5 with his communication and ability to anchor the backline, and he is surrounded by positional length at the other four positions. Every player but Luka is at least competent on that end of the floor, and with stronger players surrounding him, Luka would be assigned the least threatening wing player to match up with. With Kaminga’s ability to swallow up smaller players defensively, he would be the assigned player on guards, where he can use his length and strength to mitigate their effectiveness. Sheer size may be a slight weakness for Monta’s Inferno but the physicality, length, and positional flexibility 1-4 is something my team possesses in spades, and I feel that our squad is at the very least serviceable on that end of the floor. 

Monta’s Inferno takes after its namesake and is two things for certain: a bucket, and a problem. There will be precious few chances to rest on defense against our squad; we are guaranteed to make you work. Defensively my opponents may score *some* but it won’t be easy, and it will ultimately be a losing effort. In this thought exercise Monta’s Inferno has a top 10 offensive and a top 15 defense, and those ingredients will be just enough to produce a winning recipe.

#7 Seed: Team Charlie (@klaytheist11)

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

The pitch for this team is ultimate spacing/small-ball motion offense with a center who can take maximum advantage of a clear lane and open post while finding cutters and shooters. Steph-Sabonis PNR could create 5-out offensive looks, with three positive floor spacers off the ball. Secondary creation somewhat lacking, but all three of Huerter/KCP/Barnes can be handoff guys with Sabonis through motion looks.

Payne provides a capable replacement ballhandler, one who can shoot enough and manage PNRs with both Sabonis and Reid. The defense is lacking on the whole, but Sabonis can play at the level and in drop to maximize his skill with his hands. Reid can do much of the same, and Barnes provides a big body deterrent off the weakside if the big is at the level of the screen.

This team may not have a ton of defense, but we can space and pace with the best of them.

The post Swish Theory Roundtable: Playoff Remix appeared first on Swish Theory.

Our second roundtable will be focusing on just that: if you ran a front office, how would you establish your draft philosophy? To keep things simple for now, we’re placing at one end of the spectrum drafting for fit and the other drafting purely for best player. Our participants picked their philosophy from a menu of five options:

1. Best Player Available Only
2. Preference for Best Player
3. Equal Consideration for Best Player and Best Fit
4. Preference for Best Fit
5. Best Fit Only

While our crew definitely leaned more in one direction than the other, there remain a wide range of opinions as to why and to what degree, with one writer even taking the nuclear option on the prompt.

Without further ado, see below for how Swish Theory contributors put their draft philosophy into context.

Chip Jones: 1 – BPA Only

Few things frustrate me more than seeing a prospect I loved stuck at the end of the bench as the team that just drafted them fails to find them minutes. But as much as it hurts me to admit, a simple statistical breakdown of previous drafts strongly suggests that teams should focus on drafting the best player available regardless of team fit.

We want to focus on players who have a.) played enough time in the NBA that we can at least somewhat confidently decide how good they really are, and b.) have been drafted recently enough that the NBA they played in is similar to the current NBA environment. I think six full seasons is a good enough sample size for requirement A, and let’s stick to players drafted in 2010 or later as a requirement for B.

We need to gauge players by degrees of performance: starters, role players, and busts. And we’re going to need some rules to make these groupings objective:

• To qualify as a starter the player must have 6 seasons in which they started at least 50% of the games they were available.
• For role players we’ll drop that requirement to 6 seasons of at least 15 minutes per game.
• Players who fail to meet either requirement will be placed into the bust group.

In our 2010 to 2016 window there were 7 drafts with a total of 420 players selected.

Now, 105 of those players were taken between picks 46 and 60. And of those 105 players, 43 have never logged a single NBA minute, while only 4 meet our role player requirements and only a single player (Isaiah Thomas) qualified as a starter. Given that these players are so unlikely to make any impact whatsoever it feels wrong to factor in their outcomes with the other 315 drafted players. So for the purpose of this exercise we won’t be including those selected after pick 45.

Now narrowing in on what we can consider high draft picks, let’s analyze our remaining 315 NBA hopefuls. Among our sample, 62 (or 20%) went on to become NBA starters, giving us an average of 9 starters per draft. A further 72 or 23% have contributed as role players, an average of 10 players a year. With that in mind, less than half of the first 45 players selected in a given draft will actually stick in the league long-term. We can go one step further by separating players selected in the lottery from those taken in the mid to late 1st and early 2nd round.

Of our 62 starters, a strong majority were lotto selections at 39 (63%). With that in mind, just 1 in 10 players taken between picks 15 and 45 will go on to become starters. When it comes to our 72 role players, exactly half heard their name called in the lottery. That number means roughly 1 in 6 of our non-lottery sample size will enjoy a successful NBA career as a role player.

Draft picks hold a lot of value, and given that less than half of the players selected in the first 45 picks end up providing long-term impact, it feels unwise to limit your pool of potential picks to only those who fit a specific team need.

Neema Djavadzadeh: 3 – BPA/Fit Mix

It’s hard to say BPA past the first 4-5 guys in a draft most of the time, because after you get to a certain point, a lot of the players are very similar in terms of impact on the court. Where they differ is their individual skill sets, and some intangibles that as an armchair scout, it is hard to know about. I believe that all 30 teams have (and should have) different draft philosophies because all 30 teams have different personnel and priorities. “KYP” or “Know Your Personnel” is often used when talking about who to put on the court, but I think it applies come draft time too.

For example, if your team just drafted a scoring guard last year with a high pick, it may not be a great idea to draft another scoring guard right after that. Additionally, say you don’t have any coaches who are primed for big man development. Drafting a raw big man who may be considered BPA in the late lottery might not be the best selection for your team. At the end of the day it is about building a long-term roster, and if you don’t see how other important pieces on your team can mesh with a potential draftee, or how you can develop him to do so, then it may not be worth drafting said player.

As I said earlier, I think when you get to a certain point, a lot of the players are similar in impact, and it’s about finding which player will have the most opportunity to make an impact on your team. That’s why I believe in focusing more on tiers than on specific rankings on players. If you have a guy who is a tier ahead of everyone else left on your board but may not fit your roster or personnel immediately, go ahead and draft him! He’s clearly the best player available and you consider him to be at a different level than other prospects, so it’s worth it! But if everybody left on your board is of the same tier, it’s good to look for who fits your team’s personnel best, not just on the court right now, but with the locker room, with the coaching staff, and the team you envision building in the future. More often than not, the Best Player Available is whoever is the best player for your team, not who is the most talented.

Larry Golden: 2 – BPA Preferred

This question brings up many thoughts depending on context. For instance, if I am the Boston Celtics I am probably going to pick a prospect that has the right skillset to help our team today. But if I’m the Indiana Pacers I may take a swing at BPA to see if I can knock that pick out of the park.

I just truly think your organization’s draft process should be dictated by your current player and team’s success. If you already have a high volume scoring guard why draft another? I think you want to complement your roster with skillsets that offer different styles of play, but coincides with all your players. I also think you have to take into account what does your player development department do well? Have you noticed that your players are improving in shooting metrics month to month or every couple months? If so, why not take a shot on a player like a Jeremy Sochan, for instance? Choose a player that has the intangibles and displays intelligence on both end of the floor, but maybe the shooting could be better.

Your development staff over time will show you what they are good at improving in your drafted players. Why not use that data to help you decipher between BPA and fit?

Avinash Chauhan: 1 – BPA Only

My issue with the BPA versus best fit debate is that there are implicit provisions that are a bit underdiscussed. When drafting for best player available, there needs to be a requisite level of organizational trust in the ranking capacity of each team. The framework of analysis needs to be robust, in that a successful draft scouting mechanism can be replicated every season. Of course, this is highly dependent on the organization, and may not be possible as industry standard.

But on the contrary, proponents of the “best fit” proposition suggest a baseline of roster continuity – the foundation of the team will remain for the foreseeable future. While roster continuity has improved over the last few years, this is still quite a relevant confounding factor. “Best fit” also requires a requisite level of organizational trust in its ranking capacity: you need to trust that your projections are pristine, and then also compare prospect projections to determine which prospect would most effectively mesh with your team’s current talent.

So, we’ve established the following: BPA relies on 1.) Trust in the team’s eval. Best fit, meanwhile, relies on all of 1.) Trust in the team’s eval, 2.) Deciding which of the projected evals would mesh best with the core, and 3.) Relative faith in the roster for the near-future. This is the basis for my fundamental pitch of BPA: it’s the probabilistically correct decision. For the sake of the year-to-year variability in the league, give me the option with fewer variables.

Fit is a nebulous concept, but I’m defining fit here as team fit – considering how well the team can integrate the drafted player into their lineup. Considering the developmental strengths and training bandwidth of the organization seems relatively intuitive: for example, the Raptors and Spurs have demonstrated a propensity for developing shooting in wings (let’s ignore that shooting dev is perhaps the most “elastic” skill acquisition endeavor). Still, I don’t consider developmental strengths a true function of fit because it’s personnel-dependent and thus not organizationally intrinsic.

Additionally, I personally believe that feasible skill dev is casually deterministic. In other words, players showcase varying propensities to develop skills such as shooting, and it is up to the organization to find those players and tap into their developmental strengths to allow those players to become the best (shooting/skilled) versions of themselves. As an example, Kawhi Leonard, often considered one of the great skill development cases, had high FT% + a ton of self-created long 2’s, indicating a propensity to develop off-the-dribble shooting later. Judging the skill acquisition and refinement potential of prospects seems far more BPA-esque, especially since this process is similarly not intrinsic to each team. 

Two more concepts that make me such a firm believer in BPA:

First, I think it’s hard to truly manufacture poor team fits in the draft. From the CP3-Harden rockets to ‘21 Nets, the idea that “there’s only one ball” is incredibly ignorant of the lineup versatility enabled by the sheer concentration of talent. I think you can probably pair any combination of players who can consistently draw defensive rotations. There are reasonable limits (don’t construct the 2022 Lakers), but oftentimes the well-roundedness of a team to meet the minimum offensive and defensive thresholds of goodness can be attained in free agency. Also, while there are some extreme cases (taking a traditionally low Expected-Value archetype high in the draft while already employing a high-level player of that archetype, like taking an undersized guard top 5 on a team with Trae Young), even those cases tend to work out. Darius Garland was drafted a year after Collin Sexton, and Anfernee Simons was drafted to a team with Dame and CJ. Five years later, they are both the lead guards for their respective teams. The concept of constantly drafting the best player available and seeing what sticks may not be the most asset-productive move in the short-term, but ultimately the players that adjust the best to the NBA ecosystem end up returning far over expected value. Note that I am not supporting a Darwinian-aligned view of player dev, but instead optimistically believe in the culmination of the intrinsic “dawg” + existing bundles of potential skill. Another side note: dev-locking (ex. Josh Christopher right now for the Rockets) happens too but that’s usually a byproduct of drafting too many players in a single cycle.

Finally, predicting skill dev is extremely hard. Especially in this era of ball-handling wings and position-less schema, there are increasing cases of outlier development and miscalculations of potential. That does not mean you conflate “take the best player available” with “shoot for the moon and find the next Giannis!!”; Instead, scouting departments need to research the underlying skill, neuropsychological, and athletic traits of outlier development, and find players who rank highest based on a holistic evaluation of their potential. Taking the highest ceiling is not the same thing as taking the best player – and it’s incredibly reductive to make that assumption. BPA can be an innately nuanced process without considering team-context. Consistently drafting players who have the highest probabilities of commanding defensive rotations may be a personal philosophy at its core, but I truly believe BPA is more probabilistically viable than conducting the same exact eval process and then strictly trusting your projections to conduct an additional decision-making process that determines which of the players would best fit the current roster. That doesn’t even include the overlying “best-fit” assumption of roster continuity.

Tyler Wilson: 0 – None of the Above

I have found the debate surrounding the strategy of drafting for BPA vs. fit to be, generally speaking, lacking nuance. I really don’t like thinking about drafting through this lens because the answer is so dependent on context: every team around the league has a different set of confounding factors that alter who is the best selection at each draft slot and boiling that calculus down to BPA or Fit feels hyper-simplified to a fault. 

What do these terms even mean? What definition of “best” are you using? Is it the player with the highest ceiling, the greatest odds of hitting a positive outcome or the lowest odds of failing? How do you define “fit”? Is it on-court fit with the players on the roster, the fit within the timeline for contention of the team, the fit with what the team is best developing or the fit with other core pieces already in place? 

Basketball scouting and team building at large is a beautiful mess of inputs unique to each team, trying to boil that down into six letters seems insane to me. Yes, there is nuance and substance that can be brought to this topic, many of my colleagues writing here have done so, but is this really a conversation we need to have every draft cycle? This debate writ large is one of people attempting to cram a basketball worldview into a three letter word that means… nothing? 

It doesn’t have to be this way. There are so many more interesting and informative ways to talk about team building. There are 30 different teams you can develop substantive and unique opinions on, there is no reason to project one overarching draft philosophy to every team around the league. Why do we do this to ourselves? Why am I writing for this roundtable? Why am I yelling at my keyboard in the dead of night?

For nearly every draft pick, the growth into a functional NBA player is done in the league, within the context of the organization that drafts them. The best player available to a team is the player that will provide the largest on-court impact over the course of their career. That inherently depends on their fit within the franchise, from the coaching staff to roster construction and player development staff (on an even broader level, the willingness of said player to remain with the team and city that drafted them). BPA means Best Player Available FOR THAT FRANCHISE. You can’t separate the two, they are dependent upon one another. We’re all just saying the same thing in different ways.

AJ Carter: 2 – BPA Preferred

There’s definitely arguments for both sides in terms of drafting for the best player available vs. drafting for fit, but I lean mostly towards drafting BPA. At the end of the day you’re looking to get the best value possible with your draft pick, and in most cases taking the guys at the absolute top of your board is the best way to do that. Even if the fit is questionable and you have to make a tough decision down the line, the most important thing is to take a player you think is going to be good and you can figure the rest out from there. 

That doesn’t mean that fit just doesn’t matter at all, however, as that’s inherently tied to getting the player with the best chance to pan out for your team specifically. For example if you’re a team with a deep guard rotation full of established players, drafting the high upside yet raw 19 year old point guard might not be the best idea if you aren’t in a position to get them on the floor and let them play through mistakes – even if you’re a big believer in said player’s talent. 

It generally matters less with older and more polished prospects that already know what type of player they’re going to be in the NBA compared to younger prospects that need a certain type of developmental structure. So at the end of the day, yes, you should be drafting the best player available, just through the lens of your specific team’s structure and developmental context.

Danny Johnson: 2 – BPA Preferred

Like many instances in life, there’s so many factors for front office personnel to evaluate draft-wise. In such instances, applying general blanket statements is both unfair and irresponsible. With that being said, I’d lean towards the “best player available” side of this argument, but it’s largely circumstantial.

I believe that drafts are almost never won on the night of the draft, but they can be lost. Most instances where drafts are lost on draft night stems from sacrificing “value” to reach for what teams perceive to be the best fit. As we know, value is far from linear in the NBA Draft. The difference between pick #10 and pick #15 is way larger than the difference between pick #40 and pick #45. The larger the margins are of perceived value, the less teams should be willing to take chances with a fit-based selection. A recent example of this that comes to mind is back from the 2020 NBA Draft. Following the magical ride that was the Bubble Suns, the front office and ownership felt it was time to compete (and they were right), so they went out and traded for perennial All-Star point guard Chris Paul to fortify their starting lineup that now looked like this:

Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, DeAndre Ayton

A rock solid five. Looking over the bench, they had options to fill out the guard and wing spots with Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne, Abdel Nader, E’Twaun Moore, Jevon Carter, and Langston Galloway. Were holdovers from the 2019-2020 roster in Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky enough to stabilize the frontcourt? James Jones and the Phoenix Suns front office didn’t seem to think so. When draft night came around the Phoenix Suns selected Maryland big man Jalen Smith with the 10th overall pick, a surprise to many at the time as Smith typically fell somewhere in the 20s on most evaluators boards. When asked the next morning whether it was a fit-based selection, Jones had this to say:

“It’s always about fit for us. You know it’s never just purely about talent. You cultivate talent, you build, you mold, you shape talent until you find the fit that you’re looking for. This team, the way we’re constructed, the way we play, we tend towards fit and if that means taking a guy that no one thinks should be taken at a slot, we live with that cause we know our ultimate goal is to build the best team.” 

(per the Doug & Wolf show on Arizona Sports radio)

Phoenix went on to basically punt on Jalen Smith. Trading him (less than 16 months after drafting him) and a 2nd round pick to the Pacers to reacquire Torrey Craig, whom they had traded for during the 2020-21 season and let walk in free agency just a few months prior. I apologize to Suns fans in advance, but the player many had thought made sense with the 10th selection at the time was Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton because of his clear talent. Outside of Haliburton, there were a few other guys that could’ve helped in Devin Vassell, Cole Anthony, Saddiq Bey, Tyrese Maxey, and Jaden McDaniels. Instead, management decided to take their swing at a big man in a class that was widely considered to be thin at the position. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, but most would agree at the time that the selection was an iffy one made to attempt to plug a hole on the roster.

But make no mistake: being able to effectively deploy the “best player available” strategy is far from straightforward. Even if you had a tangible way to determine the actual best basketball player at the time of draft night, you’d still fail to get the best player a majority of the time. This is because development is far from linear and there’s no handbook on exactly how to maximize a player’s potential.

With that being said, front offices still have the ability to evaluate talent and make their best inferences. There’s a reason we often see a largely-consensus opinion towards the top of big boards, and, no, that reason is not always media group-think. It’s because there’s prospects that come out each year and clearly have these rare, sometimes generational abilities to do certain things on the basketball court. It only makes sense that I stay in the 2020 draft class for an example. This team’s two leading scorers a season ago were 24-and-25-year-old point guards, both of whom the team had control of for at least two more seasons. This team was the Charlotte Hornets who sat at pick #3 in a class that was considered to have a fairly consensus big-3. When it came their time to pick, the only member of the big-3 left was point guard LaMelo Ball, and they didn’t hesitate to side with the talent despite the current roster makeup, selecting the only player from the draft class who’s made an All-Star game thus far. When teams have opportunities to draft players with these special abilities, you take the talent and figure out the fit later (especially because if you have the opportunity to select these guys it normally means you weren’t great the year before anyways, so who cares if the fit doesn’t make the most sense at the moment). 

However, like I alluded to earlier, I believe the prompt is rather circumstantial. As drafts progress, the talent disparity becomes thinner and thinner, sometimes to the point where evaluators can spend weeks on end focused on two different players, but still end up unsure who the better prospect is. These are the instances in which fit matters. Again, I’ll stay in the 2020 NBA Draft for an example. Tyrell Terry was a blossoming freshman at the University of Stanford who showed flashes of brilliance with the ball in his hands. He became a draft darling for many, even pushing towards some people’s top 10. With him still sitting on the board at the end of the first round, the Memphis Grizzlies decided to pass knowing that they already had a lead guard who was dynamic with the ball in his hands named Ja Morant. What they wanted was someone who could provide value in areas that were perceived to be Morant’s weakest. So the Grizzlies decided to take a sharpshooting, defensive-minded guard that also fit in wonderfully age-wise with Memphis’ “window,” his name was Desmond Bane.

Gannon Rice: 3 – BPA/Fit Mix

At the end of the day, the goal in the draft is to select the player that generates the most positive impact for YOUR team, with your specific infrastructure (system, personnel, developmental team, etc.). Each pick is an estimate of the combined value of the player’s raw ability and improvement indicators (BPA), along with your team’s ability to mold and integrate that player into one that can reach their highest potential (fit). 

The unpredictability of a player’s outcome is what makes drafting perfect a near impossibility. You have to make a decision based on the stability of your team, and the chances that drafting someone with the idea that they would fit with your infrastructure now is even a possibility 3-5 years later. If you have a coach who’s on the hot seat and has a specific system he plays with, drafting a player who you hope is able to get in that system probably isn’t the best choice. Knowing your title- and playoff-contention windows is critical when making a choice between two players with different developmental curves. 

In the short term, when looking at the development of the player in the first couple years, how he will be prioritized is monumental, and this is through both from how the coaches utilize him and how much the developmental team can work on him. There may not be adequate scenarios to draft a player if you believe their positive impact to your team relies on specific playstyles and developmental work, when your team may have players with conflicting archetypes and needing of development as well. That’s where the importance of stability is so crucial to knowing what may change in the future that can open up or close the doors for the prospect you want. 

Every team in the NBA has a unique roster, culture, success window, developmental team, and coaching staff. Those operate in distinct but connective ways, and the best way to make the right pick is having a full understanding of the capabilities of each one of the components. An aspect I haven’t touched on is off the court, as you’re not just drafting a basketball player, you are drafting the person. Keeping that human element in mind will only assist you to make the right choice!

Matt Powers: 2 – BPA Preferred

I am all for best player available, with the assumption that we have the broadest possible definition of “best player” and adequate resources to support that player’s playing style. Naturally, the earlier you pick in the draft the more flexibility you will have to accommodate this, with more restrictions towards the end of the order with win-now teams. However, due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, extreme, unexpected values per pick may pop up at any given run of selections, and having a “BPA-first” approach allows you to potentially find a very good player no matter where your selections land.

The fit part comes in as there are often, and maybe just short of always, not just one good player who falls unexpectedly, but multiple. Take, for example, Detroit’s acquisition of pick #13 in the 2022 draft. On my personal board I had both AJ Griffin and Jalen Duren as extremely positive values for that pick slot, with Griffin a preference within that same tier. While AJG would be a good fit with Detroit as well (he’s good), Duren’s potential as a lob threat and pick and roll partner for Cade Cunningham made him a top 5 option for me on a Pistons-specific board.

Basketball is an extremely dynamic sport where as good players become great ones they almost always naturally improve in their fit with the rest of your team. It is very difficult to find an outright bad fit among any two or three All-Star level players, but due to the delicate nature of player development, there are indeed trade-offs for giving one player more reps in a certain context than another. Great players often make their own path to being great, but there have been countless examples of misused players on first contracts that then figure it out in a more appropriate context with another team later. Landing a star from any given spot in the draft goes a long way to improving your org’s title odds, but increasing the odds of a player finding his fit regardless of whether he becomes a true star or not has its value as well. The secondary benefits (chemistry, freedom of creativity within a given lane, clarity of role) of young players complementing each other as well should not be ignored.

The post Roundtable: Best Player or Best Fit? appeared first on Swish Theory.

How did they arrive to Swish Theory? Some caught the hoops bug from a high-flying dunker or undeniable bucket-getter. Others fell for unsung heroes, a compelling story or the dynamic strategy of the sport.

Let them tell you below, in their own words, about a specific player who influenced the way they see the game.

Mark Cheung – Contributor

Like in everything, I’ve had good role models and bad role models when it comes to basketball. Just as how you look back on your 12-year old self wondering, “how did I think – insert any pop punk band – was good”, I’ve had those formative moments of thinking Avery Bradley was setting the case for guard DPOYs, or that Jonas Jerebko was gonna be a pioneer of the stretch big era – yeah let’s forget about that one. I was a homer and my favorite players changed how I viewed the game. For better, or often for worse.

I finally saw the light in 2020. That was the year COVID hit, and amongst all of the other crazy things that happened at that time, somehow having more time to pay attention to the NBA draft was one of the more important things that happened to me. As someone who loved and consumed basketball all their life, this was all incredibly new to me. At the time, the NBA was a story of outcomes to me – like checking if my favorite player had a good box score. Analyzing the draft was a story of processes – how did those 16 points in the box score actually get there. I got sucked into this rabbit hole quick- from harmlessly customizing draft classes on NBA2k20 MyLeague, to then reading NBADraft.net scouting reports – all of a sudden, I was nose-deep into The Stepien.

The 2020 draft class became the foundation for how I think basketball. I learned what a skip pass was from guys like Tyrese, Killian, and LaMelo. LaMelo specifically was unlike anyone I’ve watched before – authoring many of my first real conceptions of feel, untraditional athleticism and flexibility and shiftiness, what goes into a good handle, attacking set versus unset defenses, and more. Onyeka and Wiseman taught me each type of pick and roll coverage, the differences between explosive and quick twitch athleticism, and the idea of load time. FSU’s Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell showed me what nail defense was, tagging the roll, 2.9’ing the paint, weakside rim protection and help defense. I could go down my whole board lol – but, in the end, I think any player can impact you and change how you see the game, it’s just when you realize it.

Neema Djavadzadeh – Contributor

Few things give me more life than putting myself through deep, excruciating anguish. Hence, my lifelong devotion to the Houston Rockets. Since I was a young Neema, the Rockets have brandished every wall in my bedroom. Whether it be the two foot tall Yao Ming bobblehead I still have today, or the poster of Tracy McGrady dunking THE EARTH that I still can’t find the image for to this day (and if anyone finds it please DM me). The Rockets, and their players, have had a dear place in my heart, and few made me want to rip it out and throw it in the Bayou the way Josh Smith would every time I’d watch him shoot a three. Despite this, Smith had long been my favorite player, and what started my love for the Point Forward archetype.

Let’s take it back one step further and say that there were two players who made me love basketball, aside from the natural answer of Kobe. Those two players were Steve Nash and Steve Francis (coincidentally, I think Steve is a subpar name). Seeing their handles, their ability to manipulate the court, and shooting prowess made me love the game, and the point guard position.

Until I realized there were 6’9” dudes who could (kinda) do the same thing. Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu, and many more all suddenly had me glued to my seat. In recent years, I’ve come to appreciate these players and what they bring to a team. Having a player with incredible vision at 6’8” or higher can really disrupt a defensive scheme and we see these players become more and more apparent in today’s game. Now you have legit point guards at 6’8” like Luka Doncic, or you have pseudo-Point Guards who can still run your offense like Dyson Daniels and Cade Cunningham. These players allow so many new avenues for your offense to run, and when those players are also lockdown defenders, they unlock a whole new level to your team. Smith was that for many years in Atlanta, and made me fall back in love with his game when he cooked the Clippers and CP0 to send them crying back home ringless when Smith was a Rocket. Even though he may not be the pioneer of the Point Forward, Josh Smith’s contribution to the archetype (and my love for it) can not be forgotten, including all his missed 3s.

Tyler Wilson – Contributor and Finishing Touch Podcast Co-Host

As a near life-long Spurs fan there is a laundry list of players over the years that have influenced my perception of the game and, quite literally, the name of my child. Fandom is a crazy, tribal thing that is both joyous and devastating, leading me to only one name. Kawhi Leonard.

No player has had a greater impact on my view of the game, from the steady grind of his development to his unbelievable defensive dominance and finally to his sudden injury and departure. On the court, watching a two-way terminator like Kawhi greatly influenced my view of what is important when building a balanced and competitive basketball team. The value of defensive cohesion and versatility cannot be overstated. I will never forget the overwhelming dread of watching those Spurs teams (with the greatest defensive player on the planet) aimlessly stumble around in their attempt to defend the effervescent guards of the mid-2010’s Western Conference. When a single weak link can sink your ship, it’s hard to survive with multiple on the court at once.

Beyond his defensive excellence and the inherently limited nature of that impact without a proper environment, Kawhi’s career made clear to me the insane standard of excellence in this league. The level at which you have to continually improve not only in on-court skill, but mental and emotional strength as well is enormous. It takes a special kind of person, not any skillset or athleticism, to make that possible. Projecting that from the tape of a singular college season is a flawed endeavor, a larger picture of someone’s propensity for growth is a necessity.

The memories of Kawhi in a Spurs uniform will always have a strange hue to them, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. In the end, the whole debacle is what drove me into the NBA draft world and an entirely different viewpoint of the sport I already loved. It reinforced the brevity of championship contention and the fickle nature of relationships between player and franchise. Most importantly, it made clear just how thin the margins are when you are pursuing greatness. One error can send everything up in smoke, and time is of the essence.

Larry Golden – Co-Founder and Swish Theory Podcast Co-Host

I have to be honest, growing up I wasn’t a fan of the game as strongly as I am now. Before the obsession came for basketball, there was an obsession for Dragon Ball Z. I was a Krillin fan before any star on the basketball court. I remember after the last rerun of DBZ was over I started to flip through the channels and stopped once I saw these yellow jerseys pop off the screen. Those belonged to high school basketball powerhouse Oak Hill Academy, and that happened to be the night Carmelo Anthony pushed me into the game.

Beyond the loud jerseys, Carmelo’s game was just as loud. He was 6’7” with handle, athleticism and a sweet jumper. I couldn’t believe someone at that size was that smooth as an athlete. From that day forward I followed Melo wherever he went. His Syracuse year was unbelievable, averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds. That year in the Final Four versus Texas was a sight to see, as Royal Ivey and Brandon Mouton were no match for the clear top talent in all of college basketball that season. He finished the night with 33 points on 12-of-19 shooting while grabbing 14 rebounds. Melo would then take care of Captain Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison of University of Kansas in the National Championship game.

After that season, I remember watching all of his highlights on YouTube and trying my best to mimic his shooting form. Shoveling snow off the driveway and putting jumpers up in the cold freezing winter in Chicago. There are a couple guys that helped shape my love for the game, but Carmelo Anthony is the one who pulled me away from watching Saiyans and pushing me to the hardwood.

David Sajdak – Contributor and Finishing Touch Podcast Co-Host

I grew up in Dallas, but the beginning of my obsession with basketball didn’t coincide with either Dirk Nowitzki’s prime or the championship season in 2011. Back then, soccer stole all my focus, and I only watched basketball in casual settings. Messi was young David’s hero, not Dirk (sorry to my fellow Mavs fans). Instead, the player that sparked my love for the NBA, and fundamentally changed how I viewed the game, was Dennis Smith Jr.

I remember flipping to a Mavs game (iirc it was this one vs the Wizards) one night just because it was on and being captivated by DSJs electric, high-flying play. From then on, I was locked in, watching almost every Mavs game and closely monitoring the upcoming draft, imagining what different players could look like next to Smith. As a reader of Mavs Moneyball, who had several writers singing his praises, I became Luka Doncic-pilled very quickly, catching highlights of the young Slovenian sensation whenever I could. When the Mavs dropped from the 3rd pick to the 5th on lottery day, I remember thinking that my hopes of seeing Luka in a Mavs uniform were all but dashed. We all know what happened next, and for half a season, I got to see my dream backcourt play together. Dennis’ time in Dallas came to an end sooner than I expected, but I’ve had the fortune to watch Luka Doncic play basketball for my favorite team ever since.

Over time, I’ve become more invested in the NBA and the draft, in particular, taking an interest in the analytical side of the game as a tool to help make sense of what happens on the court. I started learning about data visualization and data science in general during quarantine, and now I combine it along with my own analysis to write about the game that I love. As I get closer and closer to my goal of eventually making this my career, I think back to that November night every so often, when a Dennis Smith Jr. dunk forever changed the trajectory of my life.

Kris Amundsen – Co-Founder and Swish Theory Podcast Co-Host

I did not discover my love of basketball until very late in the game. I grew up in Southern California, catching pieces of major sporting events like the World Series or NBA Finals, but none of my family and friends had a true rooting interest in any specific sport, team, or player. Instead, it wasn’t until I was already in law school that a passion for basketball crept up on me unexpectedly. I had loosely followed the college basketball career of Jimmer Fredette because I graduated from BYU around the same time he ascended to national attention. After spending a few seasons with the Sacramento Kings, Fredette was traded mid-season in 2014 to the Chicago Bulls, and I decided to watch a few Bulls games to see if he was going to pan out in the NBA.

I don’t recall Jimmer playing very much, but I became captivated by the Bulls. Having lost Derrick Rose to another knee injury and Luol Deng to cheap ownership, the Bulls’ playoff hopes should have been toast with a 14-18 record on the day of the Deng trade. Instead, Joakim Noah and crew went on a 34-16 tear the rest of the year and Noah finished 4th in MVP voting. Watching Noah play was such an odd experience. He wasn’t super athletic, had an ugly-looking shot, and played with a wild demeanor. There was nothing aesthetically pleasing about his game. And he was incredible. I’d never seen a center do what he could do offensively, creating advantages out of seemingly nothing with his passing and (likely illegal) screens, but it was his ferocity and hustle that stood out the most. He was the kind of guy every fan wants on his team and every opposing fan loathes. I never thought he was the kind of player that could succeed in the NBA; now, I feel like every team could use a guy like him. He was the first player who changed the way I viewed basketball and the path to success in the NBA. I’m very grateful for those serendipitous circumstances that have led me to experience the rich beauty of this game since.

Oscar – Contributor

When the Knicks selected RJ Barrett 3rd overall in the 2019 draft, my expectations were through the roof. It was easy to put my weight behind this seemingly-total package prospect who had drawn internet attention for years and was coming from a blue blood school. Media members and fans alike anointed him as the savior of my Knicks, and his resume clearly looked the part! While RJ’s career in New York might not have turned out quite how I imagined to this point, his skillset and development arc were vital to my understanding and passion for basketball.

RJ was my introduction to thinking about basketball critically: the existence of microskills, the relationship between athletic profile and on-court skills, and the idea of “touch” as a latent skill are all things that I learned through watching and thinking about Barrett. RJ offered a different angle than the other Knicks centerpieces I had witnessed to that point. Melo was a midpost technician with out-of-this-world shotmaking skills, and Porzingis offered an intersection of rim protection and shooting that was unique to the league at the time. But Barrett’s sell was much less tangible, and relied on things like functional strength, rim rate, and mentality – traits that aren’t as widely discussed amongst casual basketball fans as skills like pull-up shooting or ball handling ability. RJ’s combination of youth career prestige, underlying holes in skillset, and brand of strength-based creation taught me how to think outside of the box as an evaluator.

Gannon Rice – Contributor

Growing up in Chicago, I’ve been watching the Bulls for as long as I can remember. The success of the early 2010s Bulls led by Keith Bogans were the first teams I recall being a fan of. Never will I forget my Taj Gibson starting agenda I had during those years. However, I was young, and was never able to appreciate how good those teams were, nor was I that big of a basketball fan then. Some years go by, and we’re sitting at the 2017 playoffs. These were odd times for the Bulls, as this was the post-Derrick Rose era led by a combination of old veterans and the up-and-coming Jimmy Butler. We squeaked into the playoffs as an eight seed, squared off with the Boston Celtics. I was more than surprised by what happened to start the series, and that was due to the wizardry of Rajon Rondo.

Entering the playoffs, my expectations were low, given we were the 8 seed and showcased pure mediocrity throughout the season. However, Rajon and the Bulls came to play. Game 1 wasn’t a dazzling performance by any means, but filled up the stat sheet with 12 points, 8 rebounds (5 offensive), 6 assists, along with 3 stocks to help the Bulls to make the series 1-0. In the second game, he dropped 11 points, 9 rebounds, 14 assists, and 5 steals to make the series 2-0. Rondo had me captivated by his crafty finishing, pesky defense, and complete control of the floor, wowing me with his exceptional passing ability. I still remember my excitement during the game watching Rondo tear apart the Celtics defense and nagging my parents about how awesome Stacey King is. Rajon re-ignited some hope for this rag-tag Bulls crew to be enshrined in history for defeating a 1 seed in the first round. Unfortunately, he got injured and missed the rest of the series.

The Bulls ended up losing the next 4 games without Rondo, and for the next 4 years were a laughing stock of the NBA. However, Rondo’s short, but sweet, playoff performance activated my passion for the game and remains as one of my favorite basketball memories.

Matt Powers – Co-Founder and Lead Editor

Going to go ahead and show my age up front by picking Dale Davis. Growing up I was taken by the late 90s/early 00s Pacers teams. While Reggie Miller led them to the Finals in 2000, it was the bruising Davis who caught my eye. Amid all the dazzling technique of the series as the Pacers eventually lost to the Kobe-Shaq Lakers in six games, it was how the relatively dull Davis found a perfect application for skillset.

While typically playing PF next to Rik Smits, the 7’4’’ Dunking Dutchman suffered consistent foul trouble against the bulldozer that was Shaq in his prime. Davis, while still giving up ample height and weight to Shaq, and despite his generally workman-like approach to the game, was a genius of physicality. The former 13th pick was able to keep the defense treading water against the dominant big man. With well-placed arm bars, quick feet, active hands and constant vigilance Davis was able to pester one of the best players the game has ever seen.

To me, and despite ultimately losing the series, Davis showed me, in his discipline and technique, how dynamic the game can be. What could be seen as weaknesses became immense strengths at the highest level of the game. And despite being a regular joe forgotten to the annals of history compared to Shaq’s immense legacy, Dale Davis hung with him and made him earn every inch.

Will Morris – Contributor

Isaiah Thomas helped spark my love for basketball. I’ve been a Celtics supporter for my entire life, but was only four years old when the squad took home the 2008 championship. By the time I became a true C’s fan, Pierce, Garnett, and all the players from that team had passed their primes. So, my first memories of supporting a “good” NBA team were between 2015 and 2017 when the King of the Fourth ran the show in Boston.

IT was the perfect hero for me: 60th pick in the draft, over a foot shorter than some of his opponents, and had already been counted out by two other organizations before arriving in Boston. His underdog story allowed me to hold on to my childish professional basketball dreams a few years longer than your typical middle school NBA fan. I look back on that time fondly, with memories of Tommy Heinsohn cheering “The Little Guy!” after each game-clinching shot. Every now and then I fire up his highlights, still finding myself amazed by his strength, change-of-pace ability, and pull-up shotmaking.

While Thomas’ time in Boston (and time as a true NBA star) was short, I credit him for helping me fall in love with the game.

Ross Pinsler – Co-Founder and Web/SEO

When I started watching basketball in the mid-2000s, my favorite team was not very good. At the time, the Bulls were mid-rebuild (literally, a mid rebuild) and the future of the franchise was up in the air. To a young and impressionable Ross, basketball was a sport built off of dominant iso scorers. A league predicated on star power. I wasn’t exactly wrong at the time.

Then, the Chicago Bulls drafted this guy named Derrick Rose. He only reinforced the image I had in my head of what an NBA superstar looked like. But this response isn’t actually about him. When Rose’s injury troubles began, a new star emerged in his place: Joakim Noah. 

An actual beast of a man who could not shoot or score like these other NBA stars. He was not built like the dominant centers of the day, and he did not care if he antagonized an entire rival fan base during a road playoff game. He reveled in it.

He looked… kinda funny. He shot free throws like he had never seen a basketball before. He said whatever came to his mind. But on the court, he was able to lead the team. He ran fast breaks like a point guard. Joakim Noah was the first player I heard the term “point-center” applied to. He paired those guard skills with a Defensive Player of the Year award and numerous points/blocks/assists triple doubles. 

To a younger me who was still navigating the ins and outs of the game, Joakim Noah broke the mold. He became the face of a franchise and an MVP candidate by being the ultimate glue guy, and making his money doing the dirty work. He didn’t need to hit a stepback jumper in your face to win a game. He’d rather be the one blocking it.

Charlie Cummings – Contributor

Though I can tell you all about those gloriously awful Nellie Ball Warriors teams and the We Believe Squad, all my learning came in retrospect. I didn’t grow up in a sports household; there would be a Giants game on if anything, but never any basketball. What first caught my eye was watching the Finals in 2009 and 2010, the two faceoffs between the Lakers and the Celtics. I hardly understood what I was seeing, but I knew that I loved watching Pau Gasol play.

A big who played inside and out, constantly used his body for screens and positioning, could pass from almost any angle, and finish with authority as well as he could hit a pick-and-pop jumper. A primal scream here and there was all too endearing to my middle school ears. I was beginning to understand some parts of the game, but most importantly I was starting to get hooked.

Fast forward to the Spurs-Heat Finals. I had begun following the Warriors in earnest like a lot of my friends in years prior, but they had little identity at the time. What I really loved watching was how those San Antonio teams worked as a complete unit. They made all the right passes, took the right shots, always kept things together no matter who they faced. But it was Tim Duncan who really evolved my understanding of the game.

He combined all of the offensive aspects I loved about watching Pau with impeccable defense and a calm demeanor. Watching Duncan taught me the importance of positioning, footwork, defensive organization, and how to execute in every defensive facet possible. It opened my eyes to the machinations of the game, and how much existed under the surface that I hadn’t even begun to understand.

Before that, I had thought that dominance was flashy, loud, athletic. Duncan helped me grasp how much of dominance comes from preparation, study, and mental processing. He flipped how I saw basketball upside down, and I could never look at it the same.

Years later, watching players Draymond Green and LeBron James remind me of how much more there is to learn about the dynamics on the floor. But ultimately, that impression of Duncan showed me what a wealth of knowledge is available in basketball, and rooted deep in me a desire to understand as much as I could about the game I love.

The post Roundtable: Swish Inspiration appeared first on Swish Theory.